Security Dilemma

Latest Episodes:

Uncle Sucker: Why U.S. Efforts at Defense Burden-Sharing Fail Apr 02, 2022

Show notes

U.S. leaders have complained for decades that allies aren't pulling their weight. Countries like Germany have become infamous for underinvesting in their own defense, effectively shifting their defense burdens onto American soldiers and taxpayers. Occasional commitments by allies to do better have often gone unmet, and the most likely path to wide European compliance with NATO's shared 2% of GDP spending target is through reactions to Russian actions, not American goading. Why have so many U.S. leaders failed to induce significant burden sharing?
Justin Logan is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. He is an expert on U.S. grand strategy, international relations theory, and American foreign policy. His current research focuses on the shifting balance of power in Asia—specifically with regard to China—and the limited relevance of the Middle East to U.S. national security.
He has authored numerous policy studies and articles on topics including international relations theory, U.S.-China policy, U.S.-Russia policy, stabilization and reconstruction operations, and the policy approaches to a nuclear Iran. His articles have appeared in International Security, the Journal of Strategic Studies, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Foreign Policy, the National Interest, the Harvard International Review, Orbis, the Foreign Service Journal, National Review, Politico Magazine, and the American Prospect, among others.
Logan holds a master’s degree in international relations from the University of Chicago and a bachelor’s degree in international relations from American University.

Upcoming: Korean Peninsula Update - Register here: https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/6616488620621/WN_cd7p1xAyTZen01hCVb0-PA

Understanding Nuclear Command and Control Mar 24, 2022

Show notes

How do different countries choose who gets to decide when nuclear weapons are used, how that decision is made, and how that decision can be brought into effect? What factors lead them to choose different strategies for closely controlling - or not - their nuclear arsenals? How does all this impact U.S. security - and how do U.S. policies shape other actors' choices? Learn all this and more in a special conversation with a leading expert on the subject, Dr. David Arceneaux.

David Arceneaux is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Colorado, Colorado Springs. He earned a Ph.D. in political science from Syracuse University in 2019. He also holds a master's degree in political science from Syracuse University, as well as a master's degree in international affairs from the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University.
Dr. Arceneaux was previously a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, affiliated with the International Security Program and Project on Managing the Atom. He was also a predoctoral Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the MIT Security Studies Program and a Carnegie International Politics Scholars Consortium and Network (IPSCON) predoctoral fellow at John Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), affiliated with the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs.
Dr. Arceneaux studies several topics related to international security, with a focus on nuclear weapons strategy and operations. His book project builds upon archival and original interview data with political and military elites to explain variation in regional nuclear power command and control systems. He also has ongoing research projects on nuclear platform diversification and North Korean nuclear operations.

China - Russia Relations After Ukraine Mar 24, 2022

Show notes

The global response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has put China in a complicated position, and there have been some signs of frustration in Beijing. The global economic disruptions wrought by war and sanctions are no good for the PRC. At the same time, an isolated Russia may present opportunities for China. And stepping back from today's crisis to the broader sweep of history, the Sino-Russian relationship may be emerging as the pole of an alternative non-Western sphere. What does all this mean? Join us as we hear from Lyle Goldstein, an expert on both Russia and China who is writing a book on the two states' relationship.
Lyle J. Goldstein is Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities. Formerly, he served as Research Professor at U.S. Naval War College for 20 years. In that post, he was awarded the Superior Civilian Service Medal for founding and leading the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI). His main areas of expertise include both maritime security and nuclear security issues. Major focus areas have also recently included the Arctic, as well as the Korean Peninsula. He has published seven books on Chinese strategy, including Meeting China Halfway (Georgetown UP, 2015). He speaks both Chinese and Russian and is currently writing a book on China-Russia relations. He has a PhD from Princeton, an MA from Johns Hopkins SAIS, and a BA from Harvard.

Military Effectiveness in Ukraine and Beyond Mar 11, 2022

Show notes

What motivates a military to continue fighting even when their situation looks grim? Are certain types of militaries more effective at achieving their goals than others? Ukraine appears to have fought better than Russia expected, while even experts on Russian forces have been surprised by the shortcomings its military has displayed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. What can the current situation tell us about prospects for military cohesion as the conflict continues?

Jasen J. Castillo is an Associate Professor and the Evelyn and Ed F. Kruse '49 Faculty Fellow in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University. He is the Co-Director of the Albritton Center for Grand Strategy. Prior to joining the Bush School, Dr. Castillo worked in the Department of Defense's Strategy and Plans Office. Before working in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, he was an analyst at the RAND Corporation, where his research focused on military strategy, nuclear deterrence, and WMD terrorism. Prior to RAND, he was a consultant for the Institute for Defense Analyses. Dr. Castillo earned his PhD in political science from the University of Chicago, where he received research support from the National Science Foundation and the Smith Richardson Foundation. His research interests include U.S. defense policy, military history, and nuclear deterrence. His publications include Endurance and War: The National Sources of Military Cohesion (Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, 2014); “Loyalty, Hedging, or Exit: How Weaker Alliance Partners Respond to the Rise of New Threats,” Journal of Strategic Studies, forthcoming; “Don’t Leave Grand Strategy to the Generals,” The National Interest, October 2019; “Passing the Torch: Criteria for Implementing a Grand Strategy of Offshore Balancing,” in New Voices in Grand Strategy (Washington, DC: Center for New American Security, 2019); Understanding Russian Nuclear Strategy and Assessing Escalation in Conventional Conflicts, PR-3039-OSD (Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation, October 2017); National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t, PR-3191-A (Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation, October 2017); Will to Fight: Defining, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Tactical and Operational Military Units, PR-3149-A (Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation, October 2017).

The Psychology of Stickiness: What the U.S. Can Learn from its Annexation of the Philippines in 1898 Mar 11, 2022

Show notes

Why is it so hard to let go? It is an enduring puzzle of U.S. foreign relations. It is hardly original to point out the sprawling collection of U.S. military installations and personnel abroad, but why is it so hard to reduce that military footprint, especially when so many presidents come into power wanting to do so? Today, I'd like to discuss U.S. President William McKinley's annexation of the Philippines in 1898 which sheds light on one important cause of "stickiness": a common psychological bias called the Endowment Effect. In exploring this concept, it enriches our understanding of why it can be so hard to let go.
Aroop Mukharji is a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He received his PhD in Public Policy from Harvard University, where he studied American foreign policy and presidential decision-making in the William McKinley (1897-1901) and Teddy Roosevelt (1901-1909) administrations. He has hosted several podcasts, including Snack Break, the Belfer Center's foreign policy podcast at the Harvard Kennedy School (called Office Hours), and another podcast for the NGO Sense and Sustainability. He published a book on education and diplomacy in 2016 with Palgrave Macmillan, and has published foreign policy opinion pieces in War on the Rocks, The Atlantic, The Washington Post, The Yale Journal of International Affairs, and The New Republic. His academic research has been published by Negotiation Journal and The Journal of Applied History.

The Ukraine Crisis (w/ Emma Ashford) Feb 17, 2022

Show notes

The world is watching the situation in Ukraine with bated breath. As of this recording, Russia has not invaded, but claims of a drawdown appear to be false. We spoke with Emma Ashford about what’s going on, how we got to this point, and possible ways to resolve the situation. We also dig into the views of other powers like China and Germany and the role that economic factors play in the dispute.

Emma Ashford is a resident senior fellow with the New American Engagement Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. She has a biweekly column for Foreign Policy and is a regular contributor to Inkstick. Her PhD is from the University of Virginia.

Upcoming Events

· China’s Rise: Military Exercises and Regional Cooperation (w/ Kyuri Park) Weds 2/23, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/5116444189497/WN_OmY5gAlBSnCzpYs9ZVeK0A

· The Spanish-American War and Its Legacy (w/ Aroop Mukharji) Weds 3/2, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/7016444189231/WN_e8ZTtMkLT1iBH_XudVQLDQ

Essay Contest w/ TNI (for students): https://jqas.org/2022-student-foreign-policy-essay-contest/

Strategic Leaders Fellowship (5-15 years FP experience) https://jqas.org/the-strategic-leaders-fellowship/

Summer Programs https://jqas.org/2022-summer-programs/

Is U.S. Deterrence in Asia Failing? Feb 10, 2022

Show notes

U.S. defense policy increasingly reflects the view that U.S. threats to defend its Asian allies, and Taiwan, are becoming less credible as Chinese power rises. This view is wrong. Geography and technological trends mean defenders have the advantage - whether the power playing defense is China or its would-be rivals. While the Chinese threat to Taiwan remains worrisome, Asia's defensive advantages are good news for the U.S. as a supporter of the Asian status quo.

One minor note: the major European city that is as close to Taipei as Sydney is is MOSCOW, not London.

Benjamin H. Friedman is policy director at Defense Priorities and a PhD candidate in political science at the MIT. He previously worked as a Defense Analyst at the Cato Institute and a Researcher at the Center for Defense Information. He's edited three books on defense policy and strategy and has published in a number of academic journals and major publications.

Upcoming Events

• The Ukraine Crisis (w/ Emma Ashford) Weds 2/16, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/3516437348068/WN_3blHwmwFSAynCEwVfEpXxA

• China’s Rise: Military Exercises and Regional Cooperation (w/ Kyuri Park) Weds 2/23, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/5116444189497/WN_OmY5gAlBSnCzpYs9ZVeK0A

• The Spanish-American War and Its Legacy (w/ Aroop Mukharji) Weds 3/2, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/7016444189231/WN_e8ZTtMkLT1iBH_XudVQLDQ

Essay Contest w/ TNI (for students): https://jqas.org/2022-student-foreign-policy-essay-contest/

Strategic Leaders Fellowship (5-15 years FP experience) https://jqas.org/the-strategic-leaders-fellowship/

Bacevich on Why American Foreign Policy Keeps Failing Feb 03, 2022

Show notes

A twenty-year campaign in Afghanistan that ended in disaster. An intervention in Libya that helped cast the country into a decade-long civil war. An invasion of Iraq that led to chaos and removed a check on Iran. A war on terror that seems to have created more terrorists. NATO expansion in Europe that cemented Russian enmity. Why does U.S. foreign policy have such a poor record lately? And how has all of this impacted civil-military relations?

Join us and the Columbia Political Union for a conversation with Andrew Bacevich, president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a historian of U.S. foreign and defense policy.

The UAE: A Destabilizing Partnership? Jan 27, 2022

Show notes

The United Arab Emirates is a close partner for the United States in the Middle East. It is usually seen as a stabilizing force, especially against terrorism and Iran, and it has many friends in Washington think tanks. Yet this benignant reading of the Emirati role glosses over the darker side of its power: interventions and proxy forces in places like Yemen and Libya; alignment with coups in Egypt, Tunisia, and Sudan; espionage; and apparent attempts to interfere in U.S. politics. Join us as we here from Jon Hoffman on his case that it's time to cease providing a "blank check" to the UAE. (Full article here: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/03/us-uae-relationship-arms-sales-human-rights-biden/)

Jonathan Hoffman is a political science Ph.D. candidate at George Mason University (GMU) focusing on Middle East politics. He received an M.A. in Middle East and Islamic Studies and a B.A. in Global Affairs, both from GMU. Jonathan has been published in various academic and policy-oriented platforms, including Middle East Policy, Digest of Middle East Studies, Foreign Policy, and more.

Upcoming Events

· Andrew Bacevich on Why American Foreign Policy Keeps Failing. Weds 2/2, 7pm ET. With Columbia Political Union/Columbia University JQAS. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/2716426270344/WN_jaQf0cz6T1edPU6GUIe0NQ

· Is U.S. Deterrence in Asia Failing? (w/ Ben Friedman of Defense Priorities) Weds 2/9, 7pm ET. With The King’s College JQAS. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/3316414182081/WN_bNsnONEmTEmoCPyO9a-7Ww

U.S. Forces Overseas: Do We Have the Right Bases in the Right Places? Jan 20, 2022

Show notes

The Department of Defense has about a quarter of a million servicemembers and civilians stationed outside the United States in a massive network of bases. This force posture includes a heavy presence in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, a medium presence in the Middle East, and smaller numbers in Africa and the Americas. Do current U.S. positions abroad meet U.S. security needs? Are forces deployed only where they are necessary? Are deployments occurring at a sustainable pace in light of the need to repair and train?

The Biden administration conducted a review of questions like these in late 2021 and claimed that things were about where they should be. We'll assess that view and provide an alternative.

Our guest Gil Barndollar is a senior fellow at Defense Priorities and a senior research fellow at the Catholic University of America’s Center for the Study of Statesmanship. He has written for The Wall Street Journal, The Los Angeles Times, USA Today, The National Interest, The American Conservative, and US Naval Proceedings, among other publications. Gil provides frequent commentary and analysis on U.S. foreign policy to national and international media and has appeared on CNN, Fox News, the BBC World Service, and the Fox Business Network. From 2009 to 2016 he served as an infantry officer in the United States Marine Corps, deploying to Afghanistan twice, to Guantanamo Bay, and to the Persian Gulf. He holds an AB in history from Bowdoin College and MPhil and PhD degrees in history from the University of Cambridge.

Relevant links:

The Pentagon's release on the Global Posture Review https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2855801/dod-concludes-2021-global-posture-review/

Barndollar's report on the Global Posture Review https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/global-posture-review-2021

2022 Student Foreign Policy Essay Contest https://jqas.org/2022-student-foreign-policy-essay-contest/

Upcoming Events

The UAE: A Destabilizing Partnership? (w/ Jonathan Hoffman of GMU) Weds 1/26, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/7516414179565/WN_CrcTuafyTBCkMdHxDp9nvQ

Andrew Bacevich on Why American Foreign Policy Keeps Failing. Weds 2/2, 7pm ET. With Columbia Political Union/Columbia University JQAS. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/2716426270344/WN_jaQf0cz6T1edPU6GUIe0NQ

Is U.S. Deterrence in Asia Failing? (w/ Ben Friedman of Defense Priorities) Weds 2/9, 7pm ET. With The King’s College JQAS. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/3316414182081/WN_bNsnONEmTEmoCPyO9a-7Ww

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