Show notes
Fred Zinkie and Jeff Erickson try to find 2024 comps to the 2023 First Half / Second Half heroes and bums. Who is this year's Julio Rodriguez Who will be the young slugger that figures it out, like Tristan Casas was last season?
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00:00 - First Half / Second Half Podcast
01:30 - Who is this year’s Tristan Casas? A young slugger who has a blah first half and then breaks out in second half.
02:10 - Micheal Busch. He was always powerful in the Minors (59 HR in 2022-23). Outside of May, has hit for average (albeit with a high BABIP). The power will play eventually. With the Cubs out of the race (kind of), he will play.
05:45 - Who will be this year’s Julio Rodriguez? An underwhelming star who gets on track in the second half.
08:20 - Alternate - Pete Alonso. His HR/FB% is a career low. Average exit velocity if down, but only slightly. Warm weather, Mets hanging around in the race….I’ll say that he hits more than 20 HR after the ASB.
14:45 - Who will be this year’s Cal Raleigh? A catcher who becomes a game-changer by hitting for elite power in the second half.
Mitch Garver. Has quietly his 6 homers since June 6. May not hit for average, but he producing plenty of fly balls. K rate and BB rate each improved a bit in June too.
19:15 - Who will be this year’s CJ Abrams? A player who catches fire on the basepaths in the second half.
19:50 - Wyatt Langford. Ranks 11th in baseball in average sprint speed. Stole six bases in June. Rangers fall out of the race and let Langford learn to steal bases in the second half by running as much as he wants.
23:45 - Who will be this year’s Alex Verdugo or Nolan Arenado? A veteran who falls apart in the second half.
25:45 - Cody Bellinger. I know his first half wasn’t great, but Statcast suggests it should have been even worse. Cubs fall out of the race and he’s unplayable in the second half.
33:40 - Who will be this year’s Freddy Peralta? A skilled starter who underachieves in the first half and thrives in the second half.
34:15 - Pablo Lopez. Similar to Peralta, he pitches for a solid team and has great SO skills. Just needs some decent luck.
40:15 - Who will be this year’s Lucas Giolito? A starter who is playable in the first half and destroys teams in the second half.
41:05 - Jose Berrios. This may be cheating, because it has already happened, but I’m not sure anyone has noticed. His season-long numbers (3.63 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) still say, “start me every week”. The Jays season is already over, and things will be ugly for starters like Berrios when they go with a full youth movement down the stretch.
44:40 - Andrew Abbott
46:45 - Who will be this year’s Adbert Alzolay? A reliever who takes hold of the closer’s role in the second half.
47:20 - Jeff Hoffman. Holy moly, this guy has been good this year. The Phillies went a long stretch without a save, and since that ended he has collected 3 of their 4 saves. He’s their best reliever and could completely take the job from Jose Alvarado. Of course, they could trade for a closer. But they don’t need to.
49:30 - Monday game recaps: Is Paul Sewald close to losing the closer’s role?
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