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Back in 2013, an anonymous poster named Dacoinminster wrote a single forum post that has quietly predicted Bitcoin's price for over a decade. Sminston With used Grok to dig it back up, and says that formula just called $840,000 Bitcoin by 2031. He also has nine reasons why the bear market is already behind us.
Here is what we cover:
• Nine specific reasons Sminston believes the Bitcoin bear market has officially ended
• Why the 200-week moving average is one of the most reliable long-term signals in Bitcoin's history
• Bitcoin's snapback rally explained and what it typically signals about the next leg of the cycle
• How Sminston used Grok to rediscover dacoinminster's 2013 forum post and why the power law formula has held up for over a decade
• How the power law actually works and why it has outperformed almost every other Bitcoin price model
• Price targets ranging from $481,000 to $1 million and the math behind each scenario
• Why institutional adoption and gold's own trajectory are reinforcing the long-term Bitcoin case
• Sminston's direct response to Cory Klippsten's criticism of power law price models
If you have ever dismissed the power law as internet folklore, this conversation will make you look at the chart very differently.
🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin and macro analysis.
FOLLOW Smitty 👇
Youtube: @sminston_with
X: x.com/sminston_with
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 - Cold Open — Is The Bitcoin Bear Market Already Over
00:59 - Nine Reasons The Bitcoin Bear Market Has Ended
05:47 - The 200-Week Moving Average Explained
08:31 - Bitcoin's Snapback Rally And What It Signals
10:12 - The 2013 Power Law Forum Post Found Using Grok AI
15:55 - How The Bitcoin Power Law Formula Actually Works
18:33 - Bitcoin Price Targets — $481K To $1 Million By 2031
22:06 - Institutional Bitcoin Adoption And Gold's Role In The Thesis
27:43 - Sminston Responds To Cory Klippsten's Power Law Criticism
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Bitcoin just ripped from $62,000 to $81,000. Caleb Franzen ( @CubicAnalytics ) says he just flipped from being a bear to a raging bull, and he has the charts to show exactly why.
Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics, joins the show to break down the technical signals confirming this move is real, why the Coldcard hack barely dented price, and why one specific chart pattern has historically preceded 50 percent gains within six months.
Here is what we cover:
• Why Bitcoin exploding from $62K to $81K changes the entire technical picture
• How Saylor, MicroStrategy, and the Coldcard hack tested Bitcoin's resilience and why the market shrugged it off
• Why Luke Gromen's accumulation thesis is playing out in real time
• The 21/200 EMA crossover and moving average cloud signal that flips the trend from bearish to bullish
• Anchored VWAP explained and why it functions as the market's true cost basis
• The RSI thrust signal that has historically preceded 50 percent gains within six months
• Caleb's free TradingView toolkit and how to use it to spot these setups yourself
• Bitcoin versus global M2 with China excluded and what that reveals about the real liquidity picture
• Why Treasury yields are quietly predicting the Fed's next move before it happens
• The Kevin Warsh versus Jerome Powell dynamic and why it matters for the next rate decision
• Operation Twist and rising global yields explained and why this changes the liquidity outlook
• The $40 trillion debt milestone and why Caleb remains a net buyer despite it
• Stablecoin dominance, capitulation signals, and what they reveal about where we are in the cycle
• Europe's hidden gem assets that Caleb is watching right now
If you thought the bear market still had room to run, this conversation might change your mind.
🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin and macro analysis.
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 - Cold Open — Was The Bitcoin Bear Market Call Wrong
01:29 - Bitcoin Rips From $62K To $81K — What The Move Really Means
05:29 - Saylor MicroStrategy And The Coldcard Hack — Testing Bitcoin's Resilience
07:04 - Luke Gromen's Accumulation Thesis Playing Out In Real Time
11:07 - The 21/200 EMA Crossover And Moving Average Cloud Explained
18:36 - Anchored VWAP — Understanding The Market's True Cost Basis
23:00 - The RSI Thrust Signal That Predicts 50% Gains In Six Months
27:55 - Caleb's Free TradingView Toolkit For Spotting These Setups
29:40 - Bitcoin Versus Global M2 With China Excluded
33:28 - How Treasury Yields Predict The Fed's Next Move
38:27 - Kevin Warsh Versus Jerome Powell — Why It Matters For Rates
41:05 - Operation Twist And Rising Global Yields Explained
48:15 - The $40 Trillion Debt Milestone And Staying A Net Buyer
51:01 - Stablecoin Dominance And Bitcoin Capitulation Signals
58:10 - Europe's Hidden Gem Assets Caleb Is Watching
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🔴 EMERGENCY LIVE - Jameson Lopp and Becca Rubenfield are joining Bitcoin News to break down why the wave of AI-powered Bitcoin scams, phishing attacks, and home invasions is only just getting started — and what every Bitcoiner needs to do right now to protect themselves.
In the wake of the Coldcard and Trezor fallout, this morning alone saw a potentially massive Dropbox compromise, a fake BitKey phishing email, an X password reset deluge, and a Protonmail outage — the attack surface for Bitcoin holders has never been wider.
This is the practical, no-nonsense security conversation the entire Bitcoin community needs right now.
👉 Follow Bitcoin News for daily Bitcoin updates, live security alerts, and the expert conversations that keep your Bitcoin and your family safe when the threats are evolving faster than most people can track.
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Bitcoin waited sixteen years for this exact moment. And according to Tom Luongo and Vince Lanci, it just became obvious.
Two friends who spend their lives tracking money, gold, and geopolitics take you on a tour around the entire global risk board. By the end of it, a failed trade deal with Canada, ninety billion barrels of Venezuelan oil, the CIA director landing in Moscow, and seized Iranian tankers sitting in a Texas court all connect into a single argument about who controls the long end of the American yield curve, and why Bitcoin's training wheels just came off.
Here is what we cover:
• Why Carney blew up the US-Canada trade deal and the real reason behind the obnoxious rhetoric on both sides
• Why the real split is not Canada from China, it is Canada from Europe and the City of London
• The ninety billion barrels of sour Venezuelan oil and why that news broke three days after the Canada trade talks collapsed
• Why CIA Director Ratcliffe flying to Moscow was a direct message to Europe
• Storm Shadow missiles and the terrifying question of whose finger is actually on the button
• Operation Economic Outcast and the full picture of how Iran is being sanctioned right now
• The seized Iranian tankers sitting in a Texas court and the collateral question nobody is asking
• What Bessent actually did with the bond buybacks and why almost everyone calling it yield curve control has it wrong
• Treasury QE explained and why banks are being used to finance the government in a completely new way
• The ten to fifteen year plan Vince and Tom believe is already underway to fix the US fiscal deficit
• Why macro funds are buying gold again and what that signals about where smart money sees this going
• Why Vince, a lifelong gold trader, believes Bitcoin's training wheels just came off and why it might be about to become the new gold
• The DARPA argument and why big Bitcoin might be closer to a national security asset than people realize
Everything about Bitcoin's story before this felt almost irrelevant. This conversation argues the big story has been staring us in the face the entire time.
🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin and macro analysis.
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 - Cold Open — Bitcoin's Training Wheels Just Came Off
01:33 - Carney Blows Up The US-Canada Trade Deal
06:53 - Splitting Canada From Europe And The City Of London Not China
15:27 - Venezuela Oil Reserves — 90 Billion Barrels Of Sour Crude
20:02 - CIA Director Ratcliffe Flies To Moscow — A Message To Europe
24:17 - Storm Shadow Missiles And Whose Finger Is On The Button
32:18 - Operation Economic Outcast — Sanctioning Iran Explained
36:20 - Seized Iranian Tankers In A Texas Court — Whose Collateral Is It
38:00 - What Bessent Actually Did With Treasury Bond Buybacks
45:47 - Why This Is Not Yield Curve Control
54:03 - Treasury QE Explained — How Banks Are Financing The Government
01:00:59 - The 10 To 15 Year Plan To Fix The US Fiscal Deficit
01:07:13 - Why Macro Funds Are Buying Gold Again
01:11:45 - Bitcoin's Training Wheels Come Off — Is It Becoming The New Gold?
01:19:32 - The DARPA Argument For Bitcoin As A National Security Asset
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Scott Melker has officially flipped bullish and says $125,000 is just a pit stop on the way to $1 million Bitcoin.
Scott Melker, market commentator with over a million subscribers and a daily show on Yahoo Finance, joins the show to break down why he stopped trading altogether, why the Treasury just gave Bitcoin its next real catalyst, and why the resilience shown this summer is the real story nobody is talking about.
Here is what we cover:
• Why Scott rates his current bullishness at 8.5 out of 10
• The Silicon Valley Bank parallel and why that failure quietly launched the last bull run
• Why Bessent's bond buyback announcement is a signal, not the actual mechanism, and what it really tells you
• Why liquidated shorts only explain Bitcoin's move up to about $71,000 and what changed after that
• Why Scott was the most vocal critic of Bitcoin treasury companies and the story of getting pitched seven of them in ten minutes at Bitcoin Vegas
• Why the whale wallets that never sold before finally started selling on the way down into the sixties
• Why every worst case scenario of this cycle, including Saylor selling Bitcoin, failed to actually crash the price
• The debt situation, forty trillion dollars, and what Scott thinks Bessent actually has to do next
• Why the four year cycle proponents were early but may still end up right, and why this drawdown broke the standard playbook
• Why Bitcoin's real story this summer was resilience, not price action
Scott's honest take on self custody, why he still recommends a mix of multisig, hardware wallets, and ETFs depending on the person
• The origin story of Scott's viral moment and why removing the holier-than-thou attitude from Bitcoin content resonated with so many people
• Why Scott thinks the AI trade ends in a spectacular explosion eventually, even if the timing is impossible to call
• How producing music trained Scott's brain for chart pattern recognition before he ever got into trading
This is one of the most candid conversations about where Bitcoin stands right now from someone who has been right, wrong, and back again.
🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin and macro analysis.
FOLLOW SCOTT 👉 @ScottMelker
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 - Introduction — Scott Melker's Bullish Flip
01:17 - On A Scale Of One To Ten How Bullish Is Scott Right Now
01:55 - The Silicon Valley Bank Parallel And How It Sparked The Last Bull Run
07:09 - Why Bitcoin Shines Brightest As Crisis Money
08:39 - Getting Pitched Seven Bitcoin Treasury Companies In Ten Minutes At Bitcoin Vegas
10:26 - Was Scott Public Enemy Number One For Criticizing Treasury Companies
11:59 - The $40 Trillion Debt Milestone And What Bessent Has To Do Next
14:36 - Druckenmiller's Take On Bessent And Why He Bought A Hyperliquid Treasury Company
18:41 - Why Liquidated Shorts Only Explain The Move Up To $71,000
21:31 - The Four Year Cycle Debate And This Summer's Resilience Story
25:02 - Being Your Own Bank vs Being Your Own Custodian
30:02 - Scott's Journey From Altcoin Trader To Bitcoin Maximalist
34:42 - Why Bitcoin At $65K Felt Like A 50% Off Discount
41:30 - The Mom's House Story That Sparked This Conversation
51:10 - Why The AI Trade Ends In A Spectacular Explosion Eventually
55:57 - How Producing Music Trained Scott's Brain For Chart Pattern Recognition
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❗ DISCLAIMER ❗
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🔴 LIVE - BTC Sessions joins Bitcoin News to break down why the confluence of the Bitcoin bull run and the age of AI is creating the biggest wealth transfer moment in human history, and why most people are completely asleep to what's unfolding around them.
From institutional adoption accelerating at an unprecedented pace to the importance of staying sovereign as the old elite scramble to maintain control, this conversation maps out exactly how to position yourself on the right side of the biggest shift of our lifetimes.
Plus an introduction to BTC Sessions' new channel Sovereign Sessions and what it means for the Bitcoin community.
👉 Follow Bitcoin News for daily Bitcoin updates, sovereign strategies, and the conversations that keep you ahead of the 1% when the stakes have never been higher.
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America just crossed forty trillion dollars of national debt. Jeffrey Tucker says there is no mechanism left to stop it, and the country is sleepwalking toward a disaster most people cannot even see coming.
Jeffrey Tucker, founder of the Brownstone Institute and senior economics columnist at Epoch Times, joins the show for a wide-ranging conversation on the collapse of fiscal restraint, the revelations buried in the newly released 1,100-page Fauci Files, and why he is genuinely saddened by what has happened to Bitcoin's founding mission.
Here is what we cover:
• Why there is no longer any mechanism stopping Congress from spending unlimited amounts forever
• How the national debt went from 19.9 trillion to 40 trillion in just ten years and why the pace is accelerating
• Why municipal and state bonds carry real risk premiums while US Treasuries do not, and what that distortion is doing to the system
• The 192 years it took to accumulate the first trillion in debt versus the 5 months it took for the most recent trillion
• What actually held governments in check historically, from the gold standard to the fear of inflation
• Why the American dream is effectively dead for everyone outside the top 5 to 10 percent
• Tucker's theory that the poor have become political pawns rather than people the system is actually designed to help
• The COVID lockdown decisions and why Tucker believes the entire framework of essential versus non-essential work was fabricated on the fly
• What the newly released 1,100-page Fauci Files actually reveal and Tucker's own theory about Fauci's early actions
• Why China's view of Western human rights and governance shaped decisions during the pandemic in ways few people have connected
• The demoralization of legacy media following the Fauci revelations and why the Pulitzer-winning coverage now looks fraudulent
• Why 106 million working-age Americans are completely outside the labor market and what that means for the country's future
• Why privacy coins are quietly being delisted everywhere and what that says about where financial surveillance is headed
• Tucker's honest and complicated feelings about what has happened to Bitcoin and where he still sees hope
This is one of the most unfiltered conversations on the state of America you will hear this year.
🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin and macro analysis.
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Everyone called 2025 the year of the Great Debasement trade. Michael Howell says it never actually happened. And what comes next could be the biggest monetary regime change in 70 years.
Michael Howell, liquidity expert and founder of CrossBorder Capital, returns to break down why global liquidity, not M2, is the real driver of Bitcoin, why the bond market just broke a 70-year-old pattern, and why the true debasement trade has not even started yet.
Here is what we cover:
• Why M2 is the wrong metric for Bitcoin and why global liquidity has a 13-week predictive lead on crypto prices
• The BES dollar basket explained and why Bitcoin remains the dominant driver even against Ethereum and Solana
• Why the real economy and financial economy are pulling liquidity from each other right now
• The AI capex boom draining liquidity from financial markets and starving Bitcoin of fuel
• Why the 30-year Treasury yield breaking 5% is a bigger deal than most people realize and why Howell thinks 6% is coming
• The 1951 Treasury Fed Accord parallel and why we may be entering a similar regime change today
• The $40 trillion debt threshold and why the average tenor of government debt is quietly being shortened everywhere
• Why Scott Bessent's yield curve management is printing money without ever calling it printing money
• Why Howell rejects the idea that the debasement trade started last year and what the actual tipping point looks like
• China's PBOC liquidity injections and why gold's move has been a China story, not a Western one
• Bitcoin's global liquidity cycle model and why it points to a bottom around the middle of 2027
• Why Howell is not a believer in the four year cycle and what he thinks is driving Bitcoin's cycles instead
• The best monetary hedge for a high inflation regime and why crypto's multiplier effect means even a small allocation matters enormously
This is one of the most technically rigorous breakdowns of global liquidity and its relationship to Bitcoin you will find anywhere.
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Bitcoin News is not a financial adviser. All opinions expressed by us or our guests in these videos is for informational purposes only, and should not be treated as investment or financial advice of any kind. Any information provided during the video is general in nature and does not take into account the viewers specific circumstances.
LIVE 🔴 Bitcoin self custody in 2026: the COLDCARD hack, the Trezor data breach, and how to secure Bitcoin. Hardware wallet security, multisig, passphrases, entropy and on chain time locks, rebuilt from first principles.
Self custody just failed a stress test nobody was ready for. A COLDCARD firmware flaw produced weak seeds going back to 2021, and coins were swept from people who believed they held the safest hardware wallet made. Trezor customers had their names, home addresses and phone numbers leaked through a shipping partner, many of them people who had only just switched. A fake Sparrow wallet sat live in the App Store. A phishing ad ranked above Trezor's own search result. BitBox audited itself with AI and found critical bugs.
The old advice was buy a device, write down your words, you're safe. That advice is dead.
In this episode we rebuild Bitcoin self custody from first principles with two people who do this for a living: Tony, founder of The Bitcoin Way, and Doctor Francesco Madonna, CEO of BitVault. They agree on the diagnosis and they disagree, sharply, on the cure. Tony will not allow a third party anywhere near a setup. Francesco's design puts a co-signing key with a service and enforces spending delays on chain. We put that disagreement on the table instead of around it.
We also build the actual 2026 process, step by step: ordering a hardware wallet without your home address ending up in the next breach, generating and verifying entropy, passphrase structure, when single sig plus passphrase beats multisig, two of three across multiple vendors, on chain time delays, descriptor backups, and the recovery rehearsal almost nobody runs.
🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin and macro analysis.
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❗ DISCLAIMER ❗
Bitcoin News is not a financial adviser. All opinions expressed by us or our guests in these videos is for informational purposes only, and should not be treated as investment or financial advice of any kind. Any information provided during the video is general in nature and does not take into account the viewers specific circumstances.
The wealthy are sitting ducks. Steven Franssen says most of them do not even realize it.
Steven Franssen returns for his third appearance on the show to break down why the newly minted decamillionaires of the last decade have no sound economic footing, why the political chaos in Washington is quietly setting up the largest wealth transfer in modern history, and why $1 million Bitcoin might be the trap that costs complacent wealthy people everything.
Here is what we cover:
• The Coldcard hack and why the only people protected were the ones who used the randomizing function nobody thought they needed
• The ethics of white hat hackers sweeping vulnerable funds and what happens to victims now
• Bitcoin governance and consensus explained through the lens of a limited state and voluntary reputation-based society
• The PPP loan fraud nobody has to pay back and what it reveals about who the rules actually apply to
• Why the great mistake wealthy people are making right now is taking the current situation for granted
• Trump's broken promises beyond Ross Ulbricht, the meme coin controversy, and why the Iran war directly suppressed the Bitcoin price
• Why Scott Bessent's oil price magic trick has held so far and how long that can possibly last
• The generational wealth transfer nobody is talking about and why BlackRock is positioned to inherit what the boomers built
• The DSA, downwardly mobile elites, and why hardline ideologies are gaining ground on both extremes
• Flock cameras, the surveillance state, and the first real grassroots pushback against it in years
• Why the 2026 midterms could hand Bitcoin its biggest bull case yet regardless of who wins
• Why Bitcoin becomes more important, not less, as trillions get printed into the AI trade
• Closing thoughts on individual change, moral progress, and where Steven finds hope right now
This is one of the most wide-ranging and unfiltered political and macro conversations you will find on Bitcoin News this year.
🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin and macro analysis.
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❗ DISCLAIMER ❗
Bitcoin News is not a financial adviser. All opinions expressed by us or our guests in these videos is for informational purposes only, and should not be treated as investment or financial advice of any kind. Any information provided during the video is general in nature and does not take into account the viewers specific circumstances.
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