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    Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

    Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.

    Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.

    Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.

    Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

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    Copyright: © 2024 Pushkin Industries & iHeartMedia, Inc. 2024

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    Latest Episodes:
    Presidential Pardons and Other Family Gift-Giving Strategies Dec 05, 2024
    Show notes

    Is Biden on tilt? Nate and Maria analyze the Hunter Biden pardon and try to find the line between false equivalence and equivalence. Then, inspired by the president’s present, they offer some thoughts on game-theory optimal gift giving for the holiday season.

    By the way, Nate and Maria will be hosting a poker meet up at the Bellagio next week! 12pm PST on 12/11 at the Bellagio poker room in Las Vegas. RSVP to attend

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.


    Maria and Nate’s Guide to GTO Travel Nov 28, 2024
    Show notes

    Nate and Maria share their game-theory-optimal travel strategies – the best time to get to the airport, the optimal airport meal, the value of rental car insurance, and more. Also: The biggest travel mistakes they ever made.

    Then, Maria breaks down a scandal in academic psychology research – and she and Nate discuss the underlying incentives that have led researchers to make bad decisions.

    Do you have a topic or theme you’d like Nate & Maria to discuss in a future episode? Reach out to us at riskybusiness@pushkin.fm with any suggestions.

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.


    How Senators and NFL Players Make High Risk Decisions Nov 21, 2024
    Show notes

    Nate and Maria talk through the game theory of how moderate Republican Senators are likely to react to Trump’s controversial cabinet nominees. Then, they discuss the new “Guardian Caps” the NFL has approved to lower the risk of concussion – and explain why most players are deciding not to wear them.

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.


    Will Trump Bring the River to Washington? Nov 14, 2024
    Show notes

    Nate and Maria discuss the influence of Riverians like Elon Musk on the Trump Administration, and what’s next for Democrats looking ahead to 2026. Then, Maria tells Nate about a few key hands from the penultimate table of the North American Poker Tour Main Event.

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.


    How Trump Won Nov 06, 2024
    Show notes

    Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice for President Biden.

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.


    What to Look for on Election Day Nov 04, 2024
    Show notes

    On the day before the election, Nate gives a final model update, explains the latest polls, and talks about what he’ll be looking for on election day. Then, Maria and Nate trade their predictions and fears for how election day will play out.

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.


    The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and Biden) Campaigns Oct 31, 2024
    Show notes

    What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race.
    And of course, we spend some time looking at the model.

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.


    Odd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting Oct 30, 2024
    Show notes

    Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in.

    Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, Odd Lots hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.

    Read More at Bloomberg.com:
    https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS
    https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.


    How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers Oct 24, 2024
    Show notes

    This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election.

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.


    How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet Oct 17, 2024
    Show notes

    Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment.

    Further Reading:

    The Big Announcement

    More on Thomas Schelling

    More on Stanislav Petrov aka the man who saved the world

    For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

    The Leap from Maria Konnikova

    Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.


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