RiskMasters | Trailblazing Risk Leadership

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Resolving Uncertainty in Decision Making Oct 03, 2026

Show notes

What happens when the assumptions behind an important decision change?

In this RiskMasters — The Download, Grant Purdy explores why decision-making is fundamentally about resolving uncertainty and why organisations need to understand the assumptions on which their decisions depend.

Drawing on the work he developed with the late Roger Estall, Grant explains how good decisions begin with clarity about organisational purpose, the opportunity being considered and the outcomes being sought.

But a particularly important part of the discussion concerns assumptions.

Every decision rests on assumptions about the organisation and the world around it. Yet Grant observes that boards and executive teams rarely record those assumptions explicitly.

That creates a practical governance problem. If the assumptions behind a decision are not visible, how can leaders recognise when circumstances have changed enough to reconsider it?

The objective is not perfect certainty. Grant argues that decision-makers instead need to reach “sufficient certainty” to exercise judgement and act.

In this extract:

• Why decision-making involves resolving uncertainty
• The importance of purpose and desired outcomes
• Why every important decision rests on assumptions
• What Grant means by “sufficient certainty”
• Why boards should make assumptions explicit
• How changing assumptions can signal that a decision needs to be revisited

This extract comes from my CPD-accredited RiskMasters conversation with Grant Purdy on ISO 31000, risk management, uncertainty and better decision-making.

🎧 Listen to the full episode of RiskMasters for the complete conversation.

ISO 31000 - The Lost Way of Risk Management Sep 26, 2026

Show notes

Has risk management lost sight of what it was originally supposed to achieve?

In this RiskMasters — The Download extract, Grant Purdy offers a provocative perspective on how the risk management profession has evolved and why he believes it needs to reconnect with decision-making.

Grant reflects on the different philosophies that developed around ISO 31000 and COSO ERM. He argues that while ISO 31000 had the potential to move risk management towards decision support, tensions remained between integrating risk thinking into normal management decisions and maintaining separate risk management processes, terminology and frameworks.

He also discusses a proposed revision of ISO 31000 around 2015 which, in his account, would have reframed the standard around helping organisations recognise and take account of uncertainty when making decisions. That more fundamental change was ultimately not adopted.

The discussion then moves beyond standards to the profession itself.

Grant questions whether risk management has become too focused on its own processes, documentation and terminology, including the difficulty practitioners still have in agreeing what the word “risk” actually means.

His central argument is clear: risk management should not become an end in itself. Its value should come from helping organisations understand uncertainty and make better decisions.

Grant Purdy's perspective on ISO 31000 and COSO ERM
Why integrating risk management with decision-making remains difficult
The proposed rethink of ISO 31000 around decision support and uncertainty
Whether risk management has become too focused on process and documentation
Why definitions of risk continue to create difficulties for the profession
Why Grant believes risk management should ultimately support better decisions

This extract is taken from the full CPD-accredited RiskMasters conversation with Grant Purdy on ISO 31000, risk management, uncertainty and better decision-making.

🎧 Listen to the full conversation on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or at aevitium.com.

ISO 31000: The Evolution of Risk Management Sep 19, 2026

Show notes

What was ISO 31000 originally designed to achieve, and how did the international risk management standard develop?

In this RiskMasters — The Download extract, Grant Purdy, who was directly involved in the development of ISO 31000, explains the origins of the standard and its relationship with organisational decision-making.

Grant traces ISO 31000 back to the Australian and New Zealand standard AS/NZS 4360, first published in 1995 and subsequently updated in 1999 and 2004. The objective was to bring greater consistency to different approaches to risk assessment and risk treatment while producing information that decision-makers could understand and use.

As other countries began adopting AS/NZS 4360, Grant and his colleagues approached the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) about developing an international standard. What followed was a four-year process of discussion and compromise as different countries brought their own perspectives on risk management.

Grant explains why the resulting ISO 31000 framework sought to integrate risk management and decision-making, but also why he believes this contributed to a distinction that continues to shape the profession.

In his view, different philosophies of risk management have subsequently developed. He characterises the ISO 31000 approach as increasingly focused on decision support, while describing COSO and IRM approaches as placing greater emphasis on risk identification, governance and reporting.

That distinction leads to a fundamental question for risk leaders: is risk management primarily a process for identifying and reporting risk, or should its ultimate purpose be to improve organisational decisions?

The origins and history of ISO 31000
How ISO 31000 evolved from AS/NZS 4360
The original purpose of risk assessment and risk treatment
Why risk information should support organisational decision-making
How the international risk management standard was developed
The role of compromise in international standards
Grant Purdy's perspective on different philosophies of modern risk management

This extract is taken from the full CPD-accredited RiskMasters conversation with Grant Purdy exploring ISO 31000, risk management, uncertainty, risk matrices, governance and better decision-making.

Listen to the full conversation on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or at aevitium.com.

ISO 31000, Risk Management & Better Decision-Making with Grant Purdy Sep 12, 2026

Show notes

In this episode of RiskMasters, I speak with Grant Purdy about risk management, uncertainty and the relationship between risk and better decision-making.

Grant has spent almost five decades working in risk and decision-making. He was a nominated expert involved in the development of ISO 31000, contributed to ISO Guide 73 and helped shape ISO/IEC 31010.

He is also co-author, with the late Roger Estall, of Deciding, a practical guide designed to help people make better decisions.

Our conversation examines how risk management has evolved, why Grant believes parts of the profession have become disconnected from decision-making, and what boards, executives and risk professionals can do differently.

“Certainty is a total illusion. It can never be achieved. Sufficient certainty is as good as we can get.” – Grant Purdy

🎯 What You Will Learn

Why risk management should ultimately improve decision-making
How to make decisions without waiting for impossible certainty
Why identifying and monitoring assumptions strengthens governance
Where risk matrices and risk appetite can create false confidence
How AI can support judgement without replacing accountability

🕒 Episode Highlights

01:23 - What ISO 31000 was originally trying to achieve

Grant traces the development of ISO 31000 from AS/NZS 4360 and explains why creating useful information for decision-making was central to the original approach.

06:03 - Where risk management lost its way

We discuss the different philosophies that emerged around risk management and why Grant believes the profession needs to reconnect risk with decision support.

10:29 - Uncertainty, assumptions and sufficient certainty

Grant explains why decisions require clarity about purpose, opportunity, desired outcomes and the assumptions on which they depend.

16:08 - The danger of seeking certainty

Why waiting for complete information can produce analysis paralysis, missed opportunities and delayed action.

21:10 - What risk matrices can and cannot tell us

Grant explains why a useful prioritisation tool can become misleading when organisations treat it as a form of quantitative analysis.

24:20 - Governance, regulation and decision-making

A provocative discussion about the relationship between standards, regulation and consultancy, and why governance should ultimately be concerned with how decisions are made.

32:49 - Why well-governed organisations still make poor decisions

We explore unclear purpose, hidden assumptions, predetermined outcomes, insufficient challenge and weak monitoring.

36:49 - AI and the future of decision support

Grant considers how AI can broaden context, challenge bias and surface assumptions, alongside the dangers of allowing technology to substitute for human judgement.

41:01 - The future of the risk profession

Why Grant believes risk professionals should broaden their capabilities and become facilitators of better organisational decisions.

44:02 - Better decisions begin with purpose

Grant closes with the principle at the heart of his approach to decision-making.

👤 About Grant Purdy

Grant Purdy has almost five decades of experience working in risk management and decision-making. He chaired the Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand risk management committee for ten years and was a nominated expert involved in developing ISO 31000.

Grant on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/grant-purdy-4ba1925/

Learn more about Deciding: https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/book

📚 Related Resources

🎓 Download your CPD certificate:

The CPD Group - Accreditation: #501335

Navigating the Gray Rhino: 5 Stages of Risk Sep 05, 2026

Show notes

How do leaders move from recognising a Gray Rhino to actually doing something about it?

In this RiskMasters — The Download, Michele Wucker, author of The Gray Rhino and You Are What You Risk, explains the five stages of the Gray Rhino framework and how they can help leaders assess where they are in responding to visible, high-impact risks.

The five stages are denial, muddling, diagnosing, panic and action.

Michele explains why diagnosing represents an important shift. Rather than simply acknowledging the risk, leaders begin asking how quickly it is developing, how significant it could become, what solutions are available, what resources are required and who needs to be involved.

The framework also considers where other stakeholders sit within those five stages. A response may depend on people who have not yet recognised the urgency of the risk or who lack the authority to act.

The conversation explores why panic can be a double-edged sword. It can finally create momentum, but it can also lead to poor decisions. Having a plan matters, but so do the mechanisms and decision authority required to implement it.

Michele also introduces the idea of a “crash of rhinos”, where several significant risks interact or arrive together, alongside smaller “baby rhinos” that may develop into larger threats.

The five stages of the Gray Rhino framework
How leaders move from recognition and diagnosis to action
Why stakeholders may be at different stages of responding
How panic can lead to action but also poor decisions
Why multiple risks can develop into a “crash of rhinos”

The Gray Rhino framework provides a practical way for risk leaders to assess not only the risks they face, but how prepared their organisations and key stakeholders are to respond. Effective action requires diagnosis, planning, decision authority, and continued tracking and adjustment.

This extract is taken from the full RiskMasters conversation with Michele Wucker on the Gray Rhino, risk management, behavioural risk and strategic decision-making.

Listen to the full RiskMasters episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or at aevitium.com.

Cultural Differences in Risk Management Aug 15, 2026

Show notes

Risk culture, cultural differences, leadership, and risk management are closely connected to how people perceive and respond to risk.

In this RiskMasters — The Download segment, Horst Simon draws on his international experience to explore how cultural worldviews influence risk behaviour inside organisations. He discusses three broad perspectives, guilt versus innocence, honour versus shame, and power versus fear, and explains why organisations operating across cultures need to consider these differences when developing risk policies and processes.

The conversation also explores how generational differences influence attitudes towards work, organisations, mobility, and risk, creating another important consideration for leaders building an effective risk culture.

Listeners will gain insight into:

• How cultural differences can influence risk management decisions
• Why the same risk policy may be interpreted differently across cultures
• How cultural worldviews shape attitudes towards responsibility and consequences
• Why generational differences matter when building risk culture
• How global organisations can consider human behaviour within risk frameworks

This extract is taken from the full RiskMasters interview with Horst Simon on risk culture, people risk, leadership, operational risk, and the future of risk management, available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and at aevitium.com.

Applying the Gray Rhino: From Recognition to Action Aug 08, 2026

Show notes

How can risk leaders apply the Gray Rhino framework to risks their organisations already recognise?

In this RiskMasters — The Download, Michele Wucker, author of The Gray Rhino and You Are What You Risk, explains how she applies the Gray Rhino concept to risk management, risk identification and decision-making.

Her starting point is straightforward: organisations usually already know what their Gray Rhinos are.

They may involve succession, organisational culture, competitive pressures, finance and liquidity, regulation or other strategic risks. Michele’s approach starts by taking a fresh look at those known risks and assessing honestly how effectively the organisation is responding.

She explains how applying the Gray Rhino framework moves beyond identifying risk. Decision-makers need to understand who is affected, who has the power to act, how different risks interact and whether information flows effectively between frontline teams, management and the board.

The conversation also explores psychological safety, behavioural risk and risk culture. Michele explains why organisations need channels that allow people throughout the business to communicate what they see and ensure important risk signals reach those empowered to act.

The discussion then considers the relationship between quantitative risk management and behavioural factors, including how risks are interpreted, communicated and priced.

How Michele Wucker applies the Gray Rhino framework
Moving from risk identification to action
How stakeholders and interconnected risks shape risk decisions
Why psychological safety strengthens information flow
How behavioural risk complements quantitative risk management

The Gray Rhino concept provides a practical framework for addressing high-probability, high-impact risks that are already visible. Michele shows how leaders can use it to examine organisational responses, improve risk communication and move from recognising a threat towards informed action.

This extract is taken from the full RiskMasters conversation with Michele Wucker on the Gray Rhino, risk management, behavioural risk and strategic decision-making.

Listen to the full RiskMasters episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or at aevitium.com.

Risk Management, Leadership & Organisational Resilience with Freddy Gielen Aug 03, 2026

Show notes

What determines whether an organisation remains resilient when it comes under real pressure?

In this episode of RiskMasters, Julien Haye is joined by Freddy Gielen, Executive Partner at Reply, to explore why organisational resilience is fundamentally a leadership and organisational design challenge rather than simply a matter of governance frameworks or regulatory compliance.

Drawing on more than three decades advising financial institutions, regulators and boards across Europe, Freddy shares the recurring patterns he observes across organisations, explaining why resilience rarely fails through a single decision but instead erodes through rational trade-offs, fragmented accountability and unnoticed ambiguity.

Together, they discuss the relationship between risk management, operational resilience, governance, leadership, and organisational resilience, challenging conventional thinking about how resilient organisations are built.

In this episode, you'll learn:

Why resilience is a leadership capability rather than simply a control function
Why governance frameworks can appear robust yet struggle under stress
The difference between documented capability and operational capability
How weak signals become diluted as they move through organisations
Why transformation often relocates organisational friction instead of removing it
Why ambiguity in ownership, data and governance creates systemic risk
How regulatory change exposes organisational capacity constraints
Why resilience often competes with growth, speed and short-term performance

Whether you are a Chief Risk Officer, risk leader, operational resilience professional, compliance executive, board member or governance practitioner, this episode offers practical insights into strengthening resilience in complex organisations.

⏱️ Episode Highlights

01:15 – Why organisational resilience is a design choice, not a technical problem

08:39 – The gap between documented capability and operational resilience

17:53 – Why transformation relocates organisational friction

23:53 – How weak signals become diluted through escalation

29:57 – When mature governance frameworks fail under stress

39:31 – Why ambiguity creates systemic organisational risk

45:19 – Why resilience competes with organisational success

📚 Related Resources

Organisational Silos: The Hidden Cost of Fragmented Governance

Discover how fragmented accountability, disconnected decision-making and organisational silos create hidden vulnerabilities that only emerge under stress.

How Functional Silos Weaken Risk Identification and Escalation

Explore why weak signals become diluted as they move through organisations and how governance structures influence escalation and decision-making.

Psychological Safety in Risk Management

Learn why challenge, escalation and speaking up are essential to organisational resilience and effective risk leadership.

🎓 Download your CPD certificate:

⁠The CPD Group – Accreditation:⁠ #501296

The Hidden Risk of Ambiguity: Why Small Gaps Become Systemic Failures Jul 25, 2026

Show notes

Most organisations look for major risks.

Frédéric Gielen argues that the biggest threats often begin with something much smaller.

Ambiguity.

In this RiskMasters: The Download, Frédéric explains why unclear ownership, fragmented data, and poorly defined responsibilities rarely create immediate problems but become systemic vulnerabilities when organisations come under stress.

He also explores another overlooked challenge. During periods of regulatory change, organisations often focus on budgets and implementation deadlines while underestimating their ability to absorb change.

We explore:

Why ambiguity creates systemic organisational risk
How unclear ownership compounds under stress
The relationship between governance, data, and resilience
Why organisations run out of capacity before budget
How regulatory change exposes organisational constraints

Risk rarely grows because of a single failure.

It often develops where ambiguity, governance, and organisational capacity quietly intersect.

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Music by Lexin_Music via Pixabay, used under the Pixabay Content License.

When Mature Governance Fails Under Stress Jul 18, 2026

Show notes

Strong governance frameworks are essential.

Clear responsibilities, documented escalation processes, and defined governance structures help organisations operate consistently.

Yet these same structures can become obstacles during disruption.

In this RiskMasters: The Download, Frédéric Gielen explores why governance frameworks that appear mature on paper may struggle when organisations come under stress.

Drawing on decades advising financial institutions, regulators, and boards, he explains how fragmented accountability, sequential decision-making, and misalignment between legal entity governance and operational governance can reduce organisational resilience when rapid decisions are required.

We explore:

Why mature governance frameworks can fail under stress
How fragmented accountability slows decision-making
The tension between legal entity governance and operational governance
Why governance structures should evolve for resilience
The relationship between governance effectiveness and organisational resilience

Effective governance is not only about clear structures.

It is about ensuring those structures continue to support timely decisions when organisations face uncertainty and disruption.

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