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Risk Parity Radio — Business
Risk Parity Radio

Risk Parity Radio is a podcast about investing located at www.riskparityradio.com. RPR explores risk-parity style portfolios comprised of uncorrelated or negatively correlated asset classes — stocks, selected bonds, gold, managed futures, and other easily accessible fund options for the DIY investor. The goal is to construct portfolios that are robust and can be drawn down on in perpetuity, and to maximize projected Safe Withdrawal Rates regardless of projected overall returns.

Copyright: © 2024 Risk Parity Radio

Latest Episodes:

Episode 379: Using Risk Parity Portfolios For Elder Relatives, Intermediate Goals And Accumulation, And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 15, 2024 Nov 17, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Jenny, Arun and Jeff. We discuss setting up a risk parity style portfolio for an elder relative, what to do with 529 money and college funds when you are getting close, and the use of risk parity style portfolios for intermediate goals or accumulation.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Yours Truly On The Earn & Invest Podcast: Why Risk Matters w/ Frank Vasq - Earn & Invest - Apple Podcasts
Value Stock Geek's Weird Portfolio: Weird Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Jared Dillian And The Awesome Portfolio: Show Us Your Portfolio: Jared Dillian
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Amusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
What if you could unlock the secrets of risk parity and transform your investment strategy? Join us on Risk Parity Radio as we explore how strategic gold allocation and portfolio diversification can revolutionize your financial journey. Dive into the humor-laden world of market fluctuations and portfolio reviews, and learn from our recent discussion on the Earn and Invest podcast with Jordan Grumet about integrating risk parity into modern portfolio theory. We also respond to a thoughtful email from Jenny, a dedicated Patreon supporter, who's crafting a risk parity portfolio for her mother-in-law. Get insights on asset allocation, the timing of gold investments, and how to utilize current market conditions to make savvy decisions.
In this episode, we delve into diversifying investment strategies during the accumulation phase, particularly for DIY investors like Jeff, a mid-40s Gen Xer contemplating a 401k rollover. Explore a variety of strategies, including Tyler's Golden Butterfly, the Weird Portfolio by Value Stock Geek, and Jared Dillian's Awesome Portfolio. Discover how these can complement ventures in real estate or business, and draw inspiration from Bruce Lee's philosophy to tailor an approach uniquely your own. Whether you're a novice or a seasoned investor, expect to walk away with practical advice and fresh perspectives to enhance your financial strategy.

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Episode 378: Silver, Useless ETF Strategies, The Evolution of DIY Investing And Yukon Cornelius! Nov 13, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from James, MyContactInfo and Cy. We discuss using silver in addition to gold in a portfolio, review again why many "options strategy funds" and other complex ETFs are generally a waste of space in a portfolio and talk about a recent Andrew Tobias interview and the history of DIY investing.
Links:
Eric Balchunas Interview: Eric Balchunas on The Hidden Gems of the ETF World You Need to Know! (youtube.com)
Andrew Tobias Interview: The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need with Andrew Tobias | White Coat Investor
Amusing AI-Bot Summary:
Discover why silver might be the wild card you didn't expect in your investment portfolio. With its industrial uses and lack of central bank holdings, silver might ramp up your portfolio's volatility without offering much in terms of diversification. We explore the intriguing story of the Hunt brothers and their infamous attempt to corner the silver market in the late 1970s, shedding light on the lessons learned from this historical market manipulation. Managed futures, we argue, could be a more strategic play for those looking to ride silver's unpredictable trends.
As we journey through the evolution of DIY investing, we take a critical look at the rise and fall of heavily marketed investment funds, like buy-write and options strategy funds. Through the wisdom of Andrew Tobias, we trace the shift from active fund management in the 1980s to today's preference for indexing and strategic asset allocation. From the so-called "Bronze Age" to our current "Golden Age" of investing, the importance of asset allocation remains a steadfast guide. So whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, these reflections aim to illuminate a path toward more informed and successful investment decisions.

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Episode 377: Common Misconceptions About VT And Simplicity, A Levered Portfolio Comparison And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 8, 2024 Nov 10, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Alyson, Martijn and Russel. We discuss the drawbacks to using a total world fund, common misconceptions about it and misguided worship of the Simplicity Principle, a levered sample portfolio comparison and basic ideas for accumulation.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional link:
Levered Sample Portfolio Comparison: testfol.io/?s=8JtI7Xd2q7l
Amusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
Can achieving higher safe withdrawal rates in retirement really be as simple as investing in a single ETF? Discover the complexities of using VT, a total world fund, during your accumulation phase and why it might not be the one-size-fits-all solution it's cracked up to be. We'll challenge conventional wisdom on cap-weighted funds and explain why diversifying across different asset classes is crucial for your portfolio's long-term success. Get ready to expand your horizons as we question the effectiveness of simplicity and share strategies for effective rebalancing.
Join us for a lively exploration of portfolio diversification with listener Q&A, where we break down the dynamics of levered portfolios and strategize about blending small-cap value with large-cap growth. Whether you're just starting your investment journey or refining your approach, we'll guide you through the pros and cons of various strategies, helping you navigate the path to financial freedom. Plus, we review an exciting week in the markets, highlighting stellar performances and acknowledging the unpredictable nature of trends. Dive into the details with us and equip yourself with the knowledge to make informed investment decisions.

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Episode 376: HSA vs. Roth, Navigating International Investments And Camelot! Nov 07, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Anderson, Camille, and Chris. We discuss and HSA vs. a Roth IRA for a lower-taxed earner, the tax, brokerage account, and portfolio considerations for a globe-trotting Canadian, and the gestalt of this podcast.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts
Amusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
Imagine navigating the world of international investment with the finesse of a seasoned traveler—all while balancing the priorities of a large family. Join me on Risk Parity Radio, where we explore Anderson's financial journey. With six kids and a modest income, Anderson seeks guidance on whether to prioritize his HSA or Roth IRA. We dissect the advantages and pitfalls of each option, examining long-term growth and inheritance implications, and offering a balanced approach to alleviate his concerns. Spoiler: a Roth IRA might just be his golden ticket.
As you contemplate international retirement, consider the intricate dance of managing a portfolio across borders. We discuss the indispensable role of a savvy accountant to navigate tax complexities and the potential necessity of relocating assets to sidestep onerous US regulations. Discover how Interactive Brokers can be your go-to platform for seamless international transactions and learn from real-world investment scenarios, like the unpredictable journey with MGK and real estate ventures. Our strategic planning insights will steer you clear of unreliable assets, paving a path to financial independence.
Trading stock charts for crystal balls, we venture into forecasting with a twist—relying on historical data instead of mere speculation. By leveraging portfolio matrices, we guide you through the labyrinth of investment possibilities beyond traditional stocks and bonds. Balance simplicity with complexity as you craft a robust portfolio that withstands market volatility. And as always, we cap off with a dose of humor—a nod to Monty Python’s "silly place"—reminding you that while we’re serious about finance, we’re equally serious about having a good laugh.

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Episode 375: Learning To "Be The Ball" With Tax And Portfolio Allocation Considerations And Monthly Distribution Mechanisms Oct 30, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Frank and Dan. We discuss investment considerations in the 32% marginal bracket, reallocating a cash holding to bonds and alternatives and common withdrawal mechanisms for taking monthly distributions.
Link:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Amusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
Ever pondered how to perfectly balance your portfolio in a high tax bracket? We promise you'll gain actionable insights from Frank, a generous donor and semi-retired investor navigating his complex asset allocation strategy. At 60 years old, Frank seeks our advice on his bond investments, with options like EDV, VGLT, and VGIT on the table. His financial journey becomes a fascinating case study as we unravel the best strategies for optimizing his diverse portfolio of stocks, gold, municipal bonds, and cash. Plus, we emphasize the importance of giving back, spotlighting our cherished cause, the Father McKenna Center.
The episode takes a deeper dive into tax strategies tailored for substantial assets, providing listeners with the tools to maximize their retirement portfolios. Learn how retirement accounts like IRAs and solo 401(k)s can be leveraged to defer taxes, especially for those enjoying a higher tax bracket. We discuss the benefits of municipal bonds for tax efficiency and highlight the necessity of professional financial advice. Our focus remains on maintaining a balanced mix of investments to ensure growth and stability as you transition into retirement.
Finally, we explore effective strategies for managing portfolio drawdowns and monthly distributions. We introduce Harold Avinsky's bucket strategy and its psychological benefits, drawing inspiration from financial expert Paul Merriman. As we wrap up, we encourage you to reflect on aligning with your personal values and the universe's natural flow, all while enjoying light-hearted exchanges that underscore these financial principles. Join us for an enlightening conversation designed to empower your financial planning journey.

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Episode 374: Modern Fund Construction Trends, Using And Transitioning Levered Fund Portfolios And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 25, 2024 Oct 27, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Gordon, Roger and John. We discuss the ChooseFI podcast and podcast appearances, modern trends in fund construction and considerations with leveraged funds while transitioning to a drawdown portfolio, along with some basic guidelines.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Roger's Bloomberg Article: Goldman’s Kostin Urges Putting Brake on Stock-Index Reshufflings - Bloomberg
Return Stacked Webinar: Diversification 2.0: Mastering the Art of Portable Alpha (youtube.com)
Amusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
Ever wondered how to construct a portfolio that balances risk and return while maximizing your investment potential? On this episode of Risk Parity Radio, we promise to demystify the art of alternative asset allocation for all you do-it-yourself investors out there. Join me, Frank Vasquez, as we transform a complex topic into an engaging conversation reminiscent of a meet-up at your favorite dive bar. We'll share our latest portfolio updates, address intriguing listener questions, and explore the emerging industry of podcast guesting, with a special nod to Gordon for his feedback on my recent appearance on the ChooseFI podcast.
How do index funds really work, and could their construction hold the key to better diversification? Listen in as we tackle these questions, dissecting the process of index fund innovation and highlighting the shift from traditional cap-weighted indexes to the realm of sectors, factors, and thematic indexes. We explore the exciting potential of algorithm-driven fund construction and replication strategies, inspired by examples like the DBMF Managed Futures Fund. This episode uncovers the abundant opportunities that ETF experimentation brings to savvy investors looking to broaden their horizons with advanced strategies.
Looking to craft a retirement drawdown portfolio that stands the test of time? We guide you through the nuances of constructing a portfolio that supports sustainable spending rates while leveraging funds for enhanced returns. Using John's real-life portfolio as a case study, we analyze components like NTSX, AVUV, GLDM, and DBMF, focusing on risk parity and return stacking principles. We also review recent market performance and introduce you to our newest portfolio, Optra. Before signing off, connect with us through our provided contact info, and remember, our content is here to inform and entertain, not serve as professional financial advice.

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Episode 373: Risk Parity Books And Info, Wresting A Complex Portfolio From An Advisor, And Aggressive Investing In Your Youth Oct 24, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from David, Jennifer and Byron. We discuss Risk Parity books and finance books and sources in general, considerations in taking control of a complicated portfolio from a (former) AUM advisor, and portfolio considerations for the younger investor considering tech, leverage and other various and sundry things.
Links:
Book #1: Risk Parity: How to Invest for All Market Environments by Alex Shahidi | Goodreads
Book #2: Risk Parity Fundamentals by Edward E Qian | Goodreads
Book #3: Introduction to Risk Parity and Budgeting by Thierry Roncalli | Goodreads
Risk Parity Radio RSS Feed Page: Risk Parity Radio RSS Feed (buzzsprout.com)
Ben Felix Video On Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) (youtube.com)
Amusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
Prepare to unlock the secrets of risk parity investing and transform your retirement portfolio. Ever wondered which books can truly elevate your understanding of risk parity? We offer a curated list of essential reads, including Alex Shahidi's "Risk Parity: How to Invest for All Market Environments," to guide you in this complex yet rewarding approach. These books cater to the savvy investor ready to harness academic and professional insights, focusing on diversification and modern portfolio theory as powerful tools for financial success.
Navigating the maze of investments alone can be daunting, especially post-advisor. Jennifer's story highlights the challenges and opportunities of consolidating a vast portfolio without triggering hefty tax bills. We provide actionable strategies to streamline investments, emphasizing the critical role of cost basis data and aligning your current holdings with future goals. Tax efficiency takes center stage, with insights into evaluating investment overlaps, leveraging different account types, and smartly planning around income changes to maintain a cohesive and tax-savvy portfolio.
Are you ready to supercharge your investments for growth? Self-employed young investor Byron's journey reveals the excitement and risks of tech and leveraged ETFs in an aggressive growth strategy. Balancing high-risk potential with a thoughtful approach is key, and we emphasize the importance of a low-cost index-based portfolio strategy. With humor and practicality, we explore how to achieve impressive returns while managing risks, encouraging a balanced investment approach that doesn't gamble your financial future. Clear financial goals and consistent strategies are your allies in navigating the unpredictable markets.

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Episode 372: Using The Force To Love Gold And Databases, And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 18, 2024 Oct 20, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Lucas, Hannelore and Joe. We discuss databases, where to put your gold ETFs and how it is taxed, and a modelling recommendation for testfol.io and modelling OPTRA.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Ken French Database Page: Kenneth R. French - Data Library (dartmouth.edu)
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts
Investopedia Article About Taxation of Gold and Collectibles: How Collectibles Are Taxed (investopedia.com) (See also notes to Episode 303).
Joe's UPRO Model: testfol.io/?d=eJytkF9LwzAUxb9KuQ8%2BVakrCBaGDP%2BgIFg2BccY5drcdtE0mWnaKqPf3dtWZhH2tjwl5NxzfufuIFfmDVWMFosSoh2UDq1LBDqCCMAH0mL0Gn5rVBCdB3x8QPGeSJ0pdNJoiDJUJfmQYrnJlGkgCv4eSWbpk32WhFZ9s5s1SkmdJ43UotNeBK0PW2NdZpQ0jLPagcaiy148FBVnkPBe4vkTz0pdU%2BluZC0FI7LW2YqDLXEb1Cnd%2FctyMv0gO3gO9841Xj7Prx6n4cntNDi7nLBuSzYl7fp%2B7doHYTHnFq2%2FRwm%2FvH7Oa6TbeJpyrl6T17U8KtcYJgx6gr3gera4fx0LTieHcGepq1AddW2%2FXodWtW5%2FALcmxls%3D
Amusing Unedited AI-bot Summary:
Unlock the secrets to smarter investing with us at Risk Parity Radio! What if understanding the complexities of asset allocation could transform your investment strategy? That's exactly what we explore as we tackle Lucas's burning question about robust databases for backtesting historical financial data. With a sharp focus on resources like the Fama French database, Bogleheads, and Portfolio Visualizer, we emphasize the power of broad asset class data over individual tickers. Plus, we highlight how using multiple tools, including the nifty Portfolio Matrix at Portfolio Charts, can lead to consistent, reliable investment results.
As we navigate the world of investing, we sprinkle in humor with a ferry trip anecdote that doubles as a clever metaphor for strategic thinking in finance. With insights on choosing between traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, and brokerage accounts, we spotlight listener Joe's stellar contribution on leveraging funds and performance modeling using the Testfolio tool. Our lively discussion doesn't end there; tune in for our weekly portfolio performance reviews, featuring everything from small-cap value stocks to gold and treasury bonds. We won't leave you guessing about sample portfolios like the All Seasons and Golden Butterfly, as we break down their substantial returns and year-to-date gains. Packed with practical advice and engaging stories, this episode is a must-listen for any investor looking to refine their financial approach.

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Episode 371: OPTRA, Rising Glidepaths And A Smooth Operator Oct 17, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Anderson, Sean and Colin. We discuss the OPTRA sample portfolio, using rising glidepaths or bond tents in portfolio management and Colin's "Smooth Operator" Portfolio.
Links:
2016 Kitces Article re Bond Tents and Glidepaths: The Portfolio Size Effect And Optimal Equity Glidepaths (kitces.com)
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix Comparison Tool: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts
Colin's Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Charts Article: When Past Performance Is Absolutely Indicative of Future Results – Portfolio Charts
Amusing Unedited AI-bot Summary:
Discover the secrets to crafting a retirement portfolio that balances risk and reward in episode 371 of Risk Parity Radio. We introduce the Optra portfolio, a unique blend of risk parity with a hint of leverage, and explore why a descriptive name was chosen over the suggested Uncle Frank portfolio. This episode gives you a backstage pass to our discussion on managing equity exposure and sequence of return risks with innovative strategies like bond tents and equity glide paths paired with risk parity styles, as proposed by our listener Sean.
Unlock the power of portfolio construction tools and techniques with us. We demystify the use of Portfolio Visualizer's Monte Carlo Simulator and delve into expert insights from Bill Bengen and Wade Pfau on optimal equity allocations. You'll grasp the significance of historical data as we dissect how different portfolio compositions can affect decumulation strategies, touching on metrics like CAGR and the ulcer index. Our conversation extends to Colin's Smooth Operator Portfolio, which cleverly uses ETFs to enhance diversification and reduce volatility, showing the value of innovative approaches to portfolio performance.
As we wrap up, expect a playful twist with Frank Vasquez's rendition of "Smooth Operator" and a reminder that our advice is designed to inform and entertain, not replace personalized financial consultation. We stress the importance of consulting personal advisors for tailored decisions. Join us for an engaging and enlightening session that combines financial wisdom with a touch of humor, ensuring you're well-prepared for your financial journey.

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Episode 370: Jamming In Joe's Garage With Simba's Backtester And SVOL And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 11, 2024 Oct 13, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Jimmy, Dave and Richard. We discuss the joys of Joe's Garage, the Bogleheads Simba spreadsheet and Lazy Portfolios and a revisit of the ETF SVOL.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Simba's Spreadsheet (Article And Link): Simba's backtesting spreadsheet - Bogleheads
SVOL Webpage: SVOL Simplify Volatility Premium ETF | Simplify
Richard's SVOL vs. Equity ETFs Analysis: testfol.io/analysis?d=eJxdikEKwjAQRa8S%2FjoL68JFruEBwtCkMu04kUmaIuLdDbgR3%2B7x3guN5y1bRYC79iKuPp5ur%2FfuqO8dHrWRtZio5bEMz5p%2B7Fs7CcJ0GnhQWiPrItS4KMJCUrOHFRHWWzxYUzkQLuOci1n8D9P5%2FQF55jJ4
Richard's SVOL Portfolio Analysis: https://tinyurl.com/bddjy2k4
Eric Balchunas Interview: Eric Balchunas on The Hidden Gems of the ETF World You Need to Know! (youtube.com)
Amusing Unedited AI-bot Summary:
Imagine a finance podcast that's as entertaining as a night out at your favorite dive bar. I'm Frank Vasquez, and on this playful yet insightful episode of Risk Parity Radio, we hit a milestone of 750,000 downloads, a delightful gift for my 60th birthday. Join me as I reminisce about the impact of Frank Zappa's "Joe's Garage" on my youth and answer listener emails, including a deep dive into Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet. We ponder the Bogleheads' seemingly timeless investment models and their reluctance to embrace change.
Turning our focus to innovative ETF strategies, we dissect the SVOL ETF, an inverse VIX fund with the potential to spice up your portfolio. Despite its lack of historical data and the risk of significant distributions in taxable accounts, this ETF might just find its rightful place in your retirement portfolio. We examine the broader trend of creative ETFs, thanks to recent SEC rule changes, and weigh the psychological appeal against the need for financial prudence. Curiosity piqued, we also explore SVOL's correlation with growth or value stocks.
Rounding out the episode, we analyze weekly portfolio performances with strategies like the All Seasons, Golden Butterfly, and Risk Parity Ultimate. I update you on specific portfolio allocations and performances, highlighting the beauty of consistent returns, even if they might seem uneventful. Engage with us through questions or comments, subscribe, and leave a review. As we wrap up, enjoy a humorous tale that weaves together music, relationships, and personal growth, leaving you informed and entertained. Remember, this episode offers insights for entertainment and informational purposes, so consult your personal advisor for tailored financial advice.

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Episode 369: Managing Treasury Bond Funds, How An AI-Bot Translates This Podcast, And Monte Carlo Based Variable Withdrawal Strategies Oct 09, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Frank, John, Aaron and Pete. We discuss bond allocations in treasuries of various durations, when retirement account space is limited and the tax bracket is high, the reasons for the strange presentation of this podcast and how to use a new AI-Bot to circumvent them (with an embedded example of an AI-Bot podcast created from Episode 333 about target date funds), the joys of having younger listeners and Derek Tharp's Monte Carlo based variable withdrawal strategies.
Links:
The New Google Notebook AI-Bot That Creates Podcasts: NotebookLM | Note Taking & Research Assistant Powered by AI
Derek Tharp Podcast: Busting the 4% Rule Myth - Retirement Revealed | Podcast on Spotify
Derek Tharp Article: A Monte Carlo 50% Retirement Success Probability Can Work (kitces.com)
Amusingly Inaccurate Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
Unlock the secrets of smarter investing and redefine how you approach your portfolio with our latest episode of Risk Parity Radio. Ever wondered if your 401k rollover could be optimized for greater returns? We dive into a listener's question about achieving a 30% bond allocation, weighing the pros and cons of treasury versus municipal bonds. You'll discover insights into balancing tax implications and investment goals, while also considering the volatility of different bond types. Our conversation guides you toward a holistic view of your investment strategy, ensuring your portfolio aligns with your personal financial objectives.
Challenging the status quo, we welcome guest Frank Vasco to dissect the perceived simplicity of target date funds. Could these popular investment vehicles be holding your growth potential back? Frank shares compelling findings from a 2022 study, revealing how TDFs might underperform significantly over decades. Even industry stalwarts like Vanguard aren't immune to these criticisms. With this in mind, we encourage you to critically evaluate your 401k plan choices, embracing a mindset of informed skepticism and strategic thinking.
Finally, we examine the fascinating world of index funds and question traditional retirement withdrawal strategies. Drawing an analogy to betting on the entire Kentucky Derby, we explore how index funds offer diversification and often outperform active management. As you rethink retirement, we discuss utilizing Monte Carlo simulations to create flexible withdrawal strategies that adapt to changing circumstances. This episode is all about empowering you with financial literacy and the tools to challenge conventional wisdom, putting you in control of your future wealth.

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Episode 368: Analysis Tools, Tactical Allocation Strategies, International Accounts And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 4, 2024 Oct 06, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Andrew, Jeff, Ron and Javier. We discuss analysis tools for leveraged funds like UPRO and TNA, Tactical Allocation Strategies, how and where this podcast is distributed, and brokerage account options for foreign (to the US) nationals.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Andrew's Portfolio Visualizer Link: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Testfol Portfolio Analyzer (see the Help link in the drop-down menu for instructions): testfol.io
Allocate Smartly Website: What We Do - Allocate Smartly
Interactive Brokers Introduction For Accounts: Introducción a IBKR | Trading Course | Traders' Academy | IBKR Campus (interactivebrokers.com)
Amusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
Ready to rethink your investment strategy? Uncover the secrets of a diversified portfolio with leveraged funds like TNA and UPRO in our latest episode of Risk Parity Radio. We'll guide you through the nitty-gritty of managing such portfolios, emphasizing the significance of fee considerations and the mechanics of monthly rebalancing. Explore alternative strategies, including rebalancing bands, and discover the power of tools like Portfolio Visualizer and TestFol to optimize your investment approach. We blend humor and savvy insights to create an inviting atmosphere, reminiscent of a friendly chat at your favorite local dive bar.
Our exploration doesn't stop there. We tackle Jeff's curiosity about tactical allocation strategies for retirement, diving into the complexities and risks, including overfitting and tax inefficiencies. While some approaches might tempt with short-term outperformance, we advocate for simpler, more reliable diversification techniques. Tune in for our market performance review, where we assess the minimal shifts in major indices and the dramatic moves in commodities and long-term treasury bonds. From the All Seasons to the Risk Parity Ultimate portfolios, we ensure you have the insights needed to navigate your financial journey through market volatility and distribution strategies.

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Episode 367: A Mini-Rant About Covered Call Funds (Again), The Future Of Levered Portfolios And Principles Of Using Historical Data Oct 02, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Mark, Jon and Richard. We discuss the perils of income investing, covered call funds and SPYI, one potential future of DYI investing using levered and unlevered risk-parity style portfolios, and the use and misuse of historical data in various analyses with a reference to a blog post from Cliff Asness.
Links:
Video re SPYI: SPYI Squeezes 12% Yield from the S&P 500 (SPYI ETF) (youtube.com)
Portfolio Visualizer Litmus Test of SPYI: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Cliff Asness Article: Efficient Frontier “Theory” for the Long Run (aqr.com)
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Note that the usually "Amusing Unedited AI-bot Summary" was so ridiculously inaccurate I had to omit it.

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Episode 366: Managed Futures, Tools For Varying Cash Flows, 529 Management And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 27, 2024 Sep 28, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Mark, James and Anderson. We discuss differing performances in managed futures funds, a Portfolio Visualizer calculator and what to do with a TSP, and what to do about 529s when approaching the use date.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Recent ChooseFI podcast with Yours Truly: 5% SWR, Revealed Preferences and the 3 stories | Frank Vasquez | Ep 508 | ChooseFI
Father McKenna Center Main Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Portfolio Visualizer Financial Goals Tool: Financial Goals (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Amusing Unedited AI-bot Summary:
How do you ensure a worry-free retirement while navigating the complexities of market trends and withdrawal strategies? Welcome back to Risk Parity Radio! Fresh from a cross-country adventure to the picturesque Washington State, we’re back with a renewed zest to help you master the art of personal finance and investing. Our cozy, dive bar-esque podcast is not just about numbers and charts; it's about community, humor, and shared learning. In this episode, we revisit our eight sample portfolios and shed light on how to build relationships and joy within your retirement hobby. If you're new here, start your journey with episodes 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 for a solid foundation.
Ever wondered how to choose between managed futures ETFs like KMLM and DBMF, or how to predict safe withdrawal rates for early retirement? We’ve got you covered. We explore the intricacies of KMLM's track record and DBMF's market adaptability, helping you determine the best fit for your diversified portfolio. Plus, we answer a listener's burning question about withdrawal rates, and untangle the complexities of the Thrift Savings Plan versus an IRA rollover. Dive into the world of financial planning tools, Social Security strategies, and brokerage firms like Fidelity and Schwab for low-cost investments. Join our informative yet quirky session designed for do-it-yourself investors looking to build a robust, diversified retirement plan.

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Episode 365: Leveraging OPTRA, The Four Phases Of Financial Knowledge And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 6, 2024 Sep 08, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Mikel, Garrison and Matt. We discuss our charity and some foundational episodes, the use of leveraged fund UPRO in the OPTRA sample portfolio, and the four phases of learning and knowledge in personal finance, which are (1) Baby Steps; (2) Shiny Object Syndrome; (3) Applying Formulas That Represent Sound Investing Principles; and (4) Understanding Sound Investing Principles And Applying Them Directly. And Mt. Rushmore and The Dog With The Longest Name.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Risk Parity Radio RSS Feed With All Podcasts On One Searchable Webpage: Risk Parity Radio RSS Feed (buzzsprout.com)
Father McKenna Center Main Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Father McKenna Center Walk4McKenna Page: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center
Amusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
How can long-term treasury bonds cushion your portfolio against turbulent market conditions? This week on Risk Parity Radio, we provide a detailed review of our sample portfolios, showing how treasuries have played a crucial role in mitigating recent stock market losses. We also share an inspiring email from Michael, a new listener who discusses his generous donation to the Father McKenna Center and highlights the upcoming Walk for McKenna fundraiser. Tune in to learn how you can support this meaningful cause while enhancing your understanding of risk parity investing.
Embark on a journey to financial independence with us as we dissect the critical stages and pitfalls along the way. We'll guide you through the initial "baby steps," cautioning against the allure of "shiny object syndrome," and emphasize the importance of transitioning to practical, DIY investment strategies. Discover the core principles of successful investing, such as diversification and macro allocation, that will empower you to achieve true financial independence and navigate your personal finance journey with confidence.
In a week marked by significant market declines, we analyze the performance of various portfolio strategies, highlighting the resilience of long-term treasury bonds and the impressive gains in diversified portfolios like the All Seasons and Golden Butterfly. Get an inside look at the new Optra portfolio, its composition, and its performance amidst economic fluctuations. We wrap up with an engaging tale about an extraordinarily talented dog, blending financial wisdom with light-hearted storytelling to keep you both informed and entertained.

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Episode 364: Leverage, Gold ETFs And Early Retirement Considerations (Oh My!) And Portfolio Reviews As Of August 30, 2024 Sep 01, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Brian, JD and Andrew. We discuss using leverage in portfolios (again!), gold ETFs and early retirement considerations and withdrawal strategies.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Yours Truly on the Forget About Money Podcast: 🎲 Risk Parity: The Secret to a 5% Safe Withdrawal Rate! | Frank Vasquez 🏆 (youtube.com)
Ben Felix Video On Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) (youtube.com)
Optimized Portfolios Website: Optimized Portfolio - Investing and Personal Finance
ETF Database -- Gold ETFs: Gold ETF List (etfdb.com)
PHYS Fund Article: Tax Information - Physical Gold Trust (sprott.com)
Portfolio Charts Withdrawal Rates Calculator: Withdrawal Rates – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator: Retirement Spending – Portfolio Charts
Morningstar Report re Variable Withdrawal Strategies: Six Retirement Withdrawal Strategies that Stretch Savings | Morningstar
Amusing Unedited AI-bot Summary:
Ready to rethink your investment strategy? Uncover the secrets of leveraging your portfolio from insights gleaned from industry titans like Ray Dalio and practical advice for everyday investors. We promise you'll walk away with a new perspective on the benefits and risks of using leverage, tips on incorporating leveraged ETFs into your own portfolio, and a treasure trove of resources including the Optimize Portfolios site and an enlightening video by Ben Felix. This episode is packed with knowledge that can transform how you approach your investments.
But that's not all—we're spicing up this financial discussion with a revisit to one of the most memorable moments in film history. Relive the iconic scene between James Bond and Goldfinger, dissecting the thrilling exchange and the unforgettable line, "No, Mr. Bond, I expect you to die." We'll break down Bond’s daring attitude against Goldfinger’s ruthless intent, highlighting why this scene is etched in cinematic lore. A blend of financial wisdom and pop culture nostalgia, this episode promises to both inform and entertain. Tune in and join the conversation!

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Episode 363: Making Adjustments To An RPR Portfolio, Musings About Factor Investing And HECOMs, And A Semi-Rant About Ill-Advised IUL Aug 28, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Phil, MyContactInfo, and Eric. We discuss implementing factor investing and making portfolio adjustments in a risk-parity style portfolio, HECOMs and other considerations about reverse mortgages and buffered products, the fundamental problems with IUL that need to be accounted for before using it, and just how rich you probably need to be to be using insurance products as investments. Hint: You are not that rich.
Links:
Swedroe Factor Investing Book: Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing: The Way Smart Money Invests Today by Andrew L. Berkin | Goodreads
Long View Podcast About HECOMs: Don Graves and Wade Pfau: How - The Long View - Apple Podcasts
Andy Panko Cautionary Video About IUL: Beware of misleading Indexed Universal Life insurance ("IUL") illustrations (youtube.com)
Andy Panko IUL Critique On Big Picture Retirement Podcast: Unmasking the IUL Sales Pitch with Andy Panko (bigpictureretirement.com)
Private Placement Life Insurance: How Does Private Placement Life Insurance Work? - ValuePenguin
Amusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:
Is your portfolio prepared for the next economic downturn? Join us on this episode of Risk Parity Radio as we tackle an intriguing email from Phil, a listener from Portugal contemplating a major portfolio overhaul. We dig deep into the nuances of factor investing, particularly momentum and profitability factors, and offer critical advice on the potential risks of reducing bond allocations in favor of equities. We emphasize the importance of leveraging financial analysis tools like Portfolio Charts and Portfolio Visualizer to make informed decisions, and stress the need for a balanced approach throughout both the accumulation and decumulation phases of investing.
We also navigate the labyrinth of investment strategies and financial products, evaluating the pros and cons of dollar-cost averaging amidst market volatility, and scrutinize costly options like Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs) and Indexed Universal Life (IUL) insurance products. Highlighting the potential pitfalls of these profit-driven offerings, we advocate for well-diversified portfolios as the cornerstone of robust financial planning. Tune in to discover practical tips on managing taxable accounts, avoiding misleading insurance products, and achieving optimal portfolio performance, all while staying grounded in sound financial principles.

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Episode 362: Considering International Stock Funds, DBMF Benchmarks, Reviewing a 70/20/10 Portfolio And More Trogdor! Aug 22, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Robert, Jamie and Richard. We discuss transitioning away from a Boglehead Three Fund portfolio due to its obsolete nature, a query about the DBMF prospectus and an early retirement with a 70/30/10 risk-parity style portfolio in the face of some spurious Sonia-like objections.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Merriman Best-In-Class ETF List: Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations | Merriman Financial Education Foundation (paulmerriman.com)
Morningstar Portfolio Analysis Of VTI: VTI – Portfolio – Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Morningstar
VXUS: VXUS – Portfolio – Vanguard Total International Stock ETF | Morningstar
AVDV: AVDV – Portfolio – Avantis International Small Cap Val ETF | Morningstar
AVES: AVES – Portfolio – Avantis Emerging Markets Value ETF | Morningstar
Early Retirement Now Spreadsheet Toolbox: An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) - Early Retirement Now
Amusing Unedited AI-bot Summary:
What if your international and bond funds aren't providing the diversification you think they are? On this episode of Risk Parity Radio, we address Robert's inquiry about optimizing his family's portfolio during the accumulation phase. We'll dissect the limitations of total international funds when paired with a U.S. S&P 500 or total market fund, and why they may fail to deliver the diversification you seek. We'll also explore Robert's proactive strategy of reallocating bond investments into stock funds during market downturns and discuss the merits of increasing U.S. stock exposure while rethinking the necessity of international holdings.
We'll further challenge the conventional wisdom of international versus domestic funds and introduce modern alternatives that can bring true diversification to your portfolio. Recommendations from the Merriman Foundation, such as AVDV and AVES, are highlighted for their potential to balance your investments by tilting towards small-cap and value stocks in international markets. Lastly, we dive deep into the complexities of fund disclosures and benchmarks, offering alternative methods to evaluate funds more effectively. Gain insights that will guide you toward a more strategic and diversified investment approach for long-term growth.

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Episode 361: Leveraged ETFs vs Margin, Transitioning To A Golden Butterfly, Investing With A Spouse, And Portfolio Reviews As Of August 16, 2024 Aug 18, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Chris, Andrew and Jenzo. We discuss portfolio, forms of leverage in leveraged portfolios, transitioning to a Golden Butterfly portfolio, and working with your spouse productively on your finances.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center: Home - Father McKenna Center
Article re Margin vs. Leveraged ETFs: Margin Trading vs. Leveraged ETFs | Cumberland Advisors
Optimized Portfolios: Optimized Portfolio - Investing and Personal Finance
Leveraged ETFs Article: Double-Digit Numerics - Articles - The Big Myth about Leveraged ETFs (ddnum.com)
Warren Buffett's Alpha Article: Full article: Buffett’s Alpha (tandfonline.com)
Gottman -- "Eight Dates" Book: Eight Dates: Essential Conversations for a Lifetime of Love (gottman.com)
Amusing Unedited AI-bot Summary:
Ever wondered if using margin or leveraged ETFs is the smarter choice for your investment strategy? This week on Risk Parity Radio, we promise to shed light on this ongoing debate. As we kick off the episode, we liken our podcast to a dive bar of personal finance where humor enthusiasts and seasoned investors alike can find common ground. With a lively introduction, we announce the grand unveiling of our weekly portfolio reviews for eight sample portfolios available on our website. An email from Chris sets the stage for a deep dive into the nuances of leveraging investments using margin or box spreads, responsible leverage, and current rates, all while thanking our generous listeners for their support of the Father McKenna Center.
Are high margin rates making you reconsider your investment strategy? We dissect this dilemma by exploring the current landscape and why leveraged ETFs might just be your best bet. With a focus on ETFs like NTSX and UPRO, we suggest additional resources such as Optimized Portfolios to help you navigate your options. Inspired by listener feedback, we also touch on the concept of optimal leverage, referencing studies like "Warren Buffett's Alpha," and discuss the importance of consistent investing strategies over market timing when building a risk-parity portfolio over the next five years.
Ready for some good news? This has been an exciting week in the market, with gains across the board. From the S&P 500 to managed futures, everything is up, and our eight sample portfolios are reaping the benefits. We highlight the standout performances of newer and experimental portfolios like the Levered Golden Ratio and the Optra Portfolio. To wrap things up, Frank Vasquez delivers a spirited and humorous sign-off, reminding us to consult with personal advisors before making any financial decisions. Tune in for a rollercoaster of insights and laughs that you won't want to miss!

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Episode 360: Help Viewing The Website, Bitcoin ETFs And Analyzing Some Portfolios In Transition Aug 14, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Ned, Kyle and Willy. We discuss tools for the sight-impaired, building out from an accumulation portfolio, the new bitcoin ETFs, and what to do in a complex Coast FI situation involving both an invested portfolio and some raw land.
Link:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page -- Remember to mention "The Financial Quarterback match" in new donations: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Amusing Unedited AI-bot Summary:
Can a legally blind investor successfully navigate the complex world of DIY investing? Tune in as we uncover the inspiring story of Ned, who shares his personal journey and the accessibility tools that empower him to make informed investment decisions. Learn how he balances his focus on large and mid-cap growth stocks while exploring the potential benefits of adding small-cap value, long-term treasuries, and alternative assets like gold and managed futures to his portfolio.
In another fascinating segment, we break down the power of ETFs for investing in digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ether, and how platforms like Fidelity and Schwab make it seamless. We then tackle a challenging financial scenario with Willy, who is on the brink of transitioning to Coast FI. Delve into strategies for evaluating his portfolio mix, the implications of selling rural recreational land, and the potential benefits of reallocating to more liquid investments. Discover practical tips and thoughtful analysis to help you make smarter investment choices and achieve financial independence.

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Episode 359: Portfolio Analyzers, The Logo, The Website, Best In Class ETFs And Portfolio Reviews As Of August 9, 2024 Aug 11, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Frank, Michael and Aaron. We discuss four good portfolio analyzer tools, the hidden meanings in the Risk Parity Radio logo, the deficiencies of the website and where to find good international funds to use for portfolio construction.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page -- Remember to mention "The Financial Quarterback match" in new donations: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix Tool: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts
Early Retirement Now Toolbox: An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) - Early Retirement Now
Testfolio Calculator: testfol.io
Geometric Golden Ratio Pentagon: Golden Ratio in Regular Pentagon (cut-the-knot.org)
Misbehavior of Markets Book: The (Mis)Behavior of Markets by Benoît B. Mandelbrot | Goodreads
More Than You Know Book: More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places by Michael J. Mauboussin | Goodreads
Merriman Best In Class ETF List: Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations | Merriman Financial Education Foundation (paulmerriman.com)
Video Re Best In Class ETFs: Bootcamp #9 Best in Class ETF Update 2024 (youtube.com)
DFA Mutual Fund List: Funds | Dimensional
Truncated AI-bot Summary:
Can you imagine transforming your financial journey in the same way you might find camaraderie in your favorite dive bar? Welcome to Risk Parity Radio! Listener Frank reaches out with gratitude and a request for the best tools to backtest portfolios and determine safe withdrawal rates. We also tip our hats to Frank's generous donation to the Father McKenna Center, underscoring our ongoing charity drive in collaboration with the Financial Quarterback podcast.
Ever wondered which platforms provide the most reliable data for crafting your financial future? We break down some of the top tools in the industry, like Portfolio Visualizer, Portfolio Charts, and the Early Retirement Now toolbox, along with the new player, Testfolio. Along the way, we debunk myths around CAPE ratios and share a heartfelt story about our Risk Parity Radio logo, born out of the creativity sparked during the 2020 lockdown.
From a cheerful Scottish greeting to a deep dive into international investing, this episode promises both humor and expertise. We tackle Aaron’s email about international ETFs, emphasizing the importance of non-overlapping funds for true diversification. Drawing from resources like the Merriman Foundation and Chris Pedersen's analyses, we guide you in selecting top-tier funds from DFA and Avantis.

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Episode 358: AI Uncle Frank, An Accumulation O.P.T.R.A. Portfolio, Carry Strategies And Managed Futures Aug 07, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Jared, Jon and Jimmy. We got the three Js! We discuss Jared's work to create AI Uncle Frank, his accumulation variation of the O.P.T.R.A. sample portfolio, carry strategies, whether to reinvest distributions and using multiple managed futures funds.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page (don't forget to include "The Financial Quarterback Match" in the comment/dedication box): Donate - Father McKenna Center
Jared's Accumulation O.P.T.R.A. Portfolio: testfol.io
Resolve Asset Management Video on Carry Strategies: Navigating Market Volatility Mastering Managed Futures and Carry Strategies (youtube.com)
CCRV Fund: CCRV – iShares® Commodity Curve Carry Strat ETF – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar
ICITF Fund: ICITF – iPath® Optimized Currency Carry ETN – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar
Video on QIS Fund: Simplify QIS Fund Deep Dive (youtube.com)
Amusing AI-Bot Generated Summary:
Ever wondered if leveraging your investment portfolio could lead to better returns? Discover Jared's transformative journey from a mechanical engineer to a machine learning enthusiast and the creator of a Risk Parity Radio chatbot! Jared shares his intricate process of optimizing a traditional 50-50 stock allocation into a more diversified and leveraged strategy. We’ll dissect the potential benefits and pitfalls of his approach, with a spotlight on managing leverage, mitigating drawdowns, and enhancing overall risk management.
We also extend our heartfelt thanks for your generous contributions to the Father McKenna Center. Dive into the exciting realm of AI as we discuss how it's revolutionizing podcast transcriptions and even mimicking the host's voice. Plus, we explore translating podcast episodes into a book with the help of AI. Don't miss our deep dive into listener questions about leveraging portfolios for accumulation, the intricacies of handling dividends and distributions, and an examination of managed futures funds like DBMF and KMLM. Whether you’re in the accumulation or decumulation phase, we’ve got actionable strategies to help you stay on track for long-term success.

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Episode 357: Market Volatility, Basic Accumulation, A Great Gold Debate, and Portfolio Reviews As Of August 2, 2024 Aug 04, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Justin, Joe and Jenzo. We discuss the legacy of Risk Parity Chronicles, basic accumulation principles, and what we can learn from a debate on gold between Ben Felix and Tyler of Portfolio Charts. And
talk about our charitable promotion for the Father McKenna Center.
And then we go through our weekly portfolio reviews of all eight of the sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page -- Remember to mention "The Financial Quarterback match" in new donations: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Financial Quarterback Podcast With Yours Truly: Breaking Down the Holy Grail of Diversified Portfolios w/ Frank Vasquez Jr. (Risk Parity Radio) (youtube.com)
Justin's Station Wagon Portfolio: The Station Wagon Portfolio - Google Docs
Jenzo's Link to the Great Gold Debate: Ben & Tyler showdown - Google Docs
AI-generated summary (use at your own risk):
Can diversification safeguard your portfolio against turbulent market conditions? Join us at Risk Parity Radio, the podcast with a dive bar vibe where humor meets investment wisdom. This episode begins with a performance review of our eight sample portfolios, demonstrating how diversification has been a protective shield amid market volatility. Plus, we're excited to feature our charitable promotion for the Father McKenna Center, urging listeners to donate and take advantage of our matching offer.
We welcome back Justin, the insightful mind behind the now-dormant "Risk Parody Chronicles," for a thought-provoking discussion on the value of freely sharing financial knowledge. We revisit the Station Wagon Portfolio and emphasize the significance of adhering to a well-devised investment strategy. We also respond to Joe's questions about the accumulation phase, advocating for a combination of low-cost index funds, such as S&P 500 and small-cap value funds, and stressing the importance of consistency over the allure of recent top performers.
Curious about the timeless debate on gold's role in modern portfolios? We dissect a lively debate between Tyler and Ben Felix, scrutinizing the historical and contemporary merits of holding gold. Alongside, we provide a detailed market analysis, highlighting the recent rise in gold and long-term treasury bonds, and review how different portfolios like the All Seasons and Golden Butterfly have weathered the storm. This episode is a reminder to employ critical thinking and adopt a comprehensive approach when evaluating investment strategies and market trends.

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Episode 356: Exploring Preferred Shares Funds, The Importance Of Rebalancing, How The Sausages Are Made And Risk Parity Chronicles Jul 31, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Ed, Cy, Visitor 5002, and Lucas. We discuss preferred shares funds, rebalancing and ranting, how the podcast sausage is made and Risk Parity Chronicles. And the charitable matching opportunity with the Financial Quarterback for the benefit of the Father McKenna Center.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page (don't forget to include "The Financial Quarterback Match" in the comment/dedication box): Donate - Father McKenna Center
Financial Quarterback Podcast With Yours Truly: Breaking Down the Holy Grail of Diversified Portfolios w/ Frank Vasquez Jr. (Risk Parity Radio) (youtube.com)
PFFV On Morningstar: PFFV – Global X Variable Rate Preferred ETF – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar
Risk Parity Chronicles On YouTube: Risk Parity Chronicles - YouTube
Golden Butterfly Portfolio In Depth: Golden Butterfly Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Unedited Artificial Intelligence Description:
Ever wondered how to double the impact of your charitable donations while navigating the world of preferred shares funds? On this episode of Risk Parity Radio, we kick things off with something special—a segment dedicated to answering listener emails and revealing our latest charitable promotion for the Father McKenna Center. Learn about an incredible matching donation opportunity connected to my appearance on the Financial Quarterback podcast, and hear about a clever donation strategy using donor-advised funds suggested by our listener, David.
Thinking about adding preferred shares to your portfolio but not sure where to start? Listener Ed's email prompts a deep dive into the mechanics and benefits of preferred shares funds. Discover why these funds are appealing, particularly for those in high tax brackets, as we compare ETFs such as PFF, PGX, PFXF, and FPE. I'll share my current top picks, PFFV and PFFD, which boast lower expense ratios and higher dividend payouts, and discuss the tax advantages of qualified dividends. Whether you're looking to enhance your yield or add stability to your investments, this segment is packed with actionable insights.
Finally, we turn our focus to the critical practice of portfolio rebalancing, illustrating how this strategy can help you buy low and sell high. We'll share recent examples to highlight its effectiveness, all while adding a bit of entertainment with a playful nod to "Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory." Don't forget to engage with us by subscribing, giving ratings, and leaving reviews on your favorite podcast platforms. Tune in for a perfect blend of insightful financial advice, engaging listener interactions, and tips on making a difference through thoughtful charitable contributions.

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Episode 355: Slapping Down Sensationalism, Macro-Economic Environments And Correlation Principles, And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 28, 2024 Jul 28, 2024

In this episode we answer questions from Nonamed, Ronald, and Jose. We discuss how sensational financial media works and why you should ignore it, being thankful for our listeners and how correlations work and relate to macro-economic environments in the context of the Holy Grail principle. And we discuss our charitable match outreach for the Father McKenna Center.
And then we go through our weekly portfolio reviews of all eight of the sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page -- Remember to mention "The Financial Quarterback match" in new donations: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Risk Parity Radio RSS Feed Page For Word Searching The Podcast: Risk Parity Radio RSS Feed (buzzsprout.com)
UNC Paper (not Duke!) Re Treasury Bond Correlations In Recessions (see Page 53 for Chart): ssrn_id4768684_code533828.pdf (elsevier-ssrn-document-store-prod.s3.amazonaws.com)
Ray Dalio Explains The Holy Grail Principle: Ray Dalio breaks down his "Holy Grail" (youtube.com)
Bridgewater Paper With Basic Quadrant Model Example (see Page 8): Bridgewater Paper 2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc (granicus.com)

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Episode 354: Managed Futures, Property & Casualty Insurance, Gambling By The Brazos And Portfolio Visualizer Jul 25, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Steve, Grant, and Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude"). We discuss investing in managed futures and property and casualty insurance companies, rebalancing mechanisms and fitting those into a portfolio, Grant's various gambling problems with leveraged funds and assorted Metaverse doom-scrolling, and the recent annoying changes with Portfolio Visualizer. And our charitable push for our charity, the Father McKenna Center --get the match!
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page (don't forget to include "The Financial Quarterback Match" in the comment/dedication box): Donate - Father McKenna Center
SocGen Managed Futures CTA And Trend Indices: Prime Services (Newedge) Indices (societegenerale.com)
Kitces Rebalancing Methods Article: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)
New Testfol Backtester With OPTRA Example: testfol.io

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Episode 353: Our Annual Rebalancing Episode And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 19, 2024 Jul 21, 2024

In this final episode of Season Four we discuss the concepts of rebalancing and reallocating in all their glory and go through the planned annual rebalancings for four of the sample portfolios in excruciating detail. We also discuss all of the assets and allocations in the Risk Parity Ultimate portfolio and which ones we actually own in real life.
And we go through our weekly portfolio reviews of all eight of the sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional link:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page -- Remember to mention "The Financial Quarterback match" in new donations: Donate - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 352: Practical Advice On Investing In Gold, The Varying Value Of Education And Getting Your Generosity Matched Jul 18, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Judy, Steve and MyContactInfo. We discuss a recent offer by The Financial Quarterback podcast to match donations the the Father McKenna Center (yay!), why you should buy gold ETFs and NOT physical gold, Cartman and Kyle, and the varying value of education depending on the individual.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page -- Remember to mention "The Financial Quarterback match" in new donations: Donate - Father McKenna Center
ETF Database -- Gold ETFs: Gold ETF List (etfdb.com)
Listener John's Gold ETF link: 9 low cost physical Gold ETFs for portfolio parity - SmartMoneyToolbox
GLD FAQs: FAQs > USA > SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). Bringing the gold market to investors

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Episode 351: The GOVT Fund, Retirement Resources, The Socratic Method And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 12, 2024 Jul 13, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Brian, Wendy, and Midas. We discuss the bond fund GOVT and how it fits or doesn't fit in portfolio construction, some basics about IRA conversions and retirement resources (podcasts and groups), and follow up on Episode 340 with a discussion on our pedagogical approach, the pluses and minuses of the Socratic Method and tilting at logical fallacies.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Morningstar Analysis of GOVT: GOVT – Portfolio – iShares US Treasury Bond ETF | Morningstar
Big Picture Retirement Podcast About IRA Conversions: When Roth IRA Conversions Go Too Far (bigpictureretirement.com)
Andy Panko YouTube Topical Playists: Retirement Planning Education - YouTube
Link to Retirement Planning Education Facebook Group (and other materials): Retirement Planning Education Facebook group
Retirement Answer Man Podcast: A Top Retirement Podcast, with over 8 Million Downloads — The Retirement Answer Man® (rogerwhitney.com)
Retirement & IRA Show: Podcasts Archives - The Retirement and IRA Show
Trogdor (Just Because): Trogdor Song (youtube.com)

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Episode 350: Skew And Managed Futures, Family Trucksters And Uncle Frank Says "Do Both" Jul 10, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Jeffrey, Justin and Matt. We discuss the concept of "skew" generally and in the context of investing in managed futures, a "station wagon" portfolio similar in macro-allocations to the new OPTRA sample portfolio, and the age old question of whether to pay down debt or invest. (Uncle Frank says "Do Both.")
Links:
Basic Article About Skew: Right Skewed vs. Left Skewed Distribution (investopedia.com)
MFUT Fund Fact Page: Cambria Chesapeake Pure Trend ETF (MFUT) | Cambria Funds
Justin's Station Wagon Portfolio: The Station Wagon Portfolio - Google Docs
Risk Parity Chronicles Video on Asset Swaps: How to Do an Asset Swap (youtube.com)
Arch Portfolio Backtester: Portfolio Backtest — Arch Indices Portfolio Analyzer

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Episode 349: Introducing O.P.T.R.A., a "Trogdor Portfolio" Jul 03, 2024

In this episode we introduce a new sample experimental portfolio, the O.P.T.R.A., which is now also featured on the Portfolios Page at the website. It is a mixture of the latest and greatest ideas in portfolio construction.
Links:
O.P.T.R.A. backtest: testfol.io
O.P.T.R.A. correlation analysis: testfol.io
Morningstar UPRO: UPRO – Portfolio – ProShares UltraPro S&P500 | Morningstar
Morningstar AVGV: AVGV – Portfolio – Avantis All Equity Markets Value ETF | Morningstar
Morningstar GOVZ: GOVZ – Portfolio – iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bd ETF | Morningstar
Morningstar GLDM: GLDM – Portfolio – SPDR® Gold MiniShares | Morningstar
Morningstar DBMF: DBMF – iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar

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Episode 348: Portfolios For 11-Year Olds, Basic Return Stacking, And A Fama-French Kerfuffle Jun 26, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Marco Esquandolas, Adrian and Paulo. We discuss portfolio advice for a precocious 11-year old, a simple return-stacked portfolio a la Corey Hoffstein and the priority of the Simplicity Principle, and some recent articles about the Fama-French database.
Links:
Corey Hoffstein Talking About His Return-Stacked Portfolio: Show Us Your Portfolio: Corey Hoffstein (youtube.com)
Paulo's Bloomberg Article: A Fight Over Factor Investing Tests a Pillar of Modern Finance - Bloomberg
Summary Critique of Fama-French Database Issues: ftalphaville.ft.com/content/2e87e7f9-c2ad-4dcb-afc3-2a0f8d0a6ca3
Fama-French Response Paper: Production of U.S. Rm-Rf, SMB, and HML in the Fama-French Data Library by Eugene F. Fama, Kenneth R. French :: SSRN

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Episode 347: Levered Small Caps, Cash Management Issues, Comparing Bond Fund Durations And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 21, 2024 Jun 23, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Steven, Kaleb and Reynolds. We discuss a levered small cap fund (SAA), short-term cash management and related ETFs, and how to compare and use bond funds of differing durations.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
ETF Database -- Ultra Short Term Bond Funds: The Web's Best ETF Screener | ETF Database (etfdb.com)
Morningstar Article on BOXX: BOXX ETF Promises T-Bill Returns Without Taxable Income | Morningstar
Morningstar Analysis of IEF: IEF – Portfolio – iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Morningstar
Kitces Re-balancing Article: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)

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Episode 346: Musings On Luck, Escaping Empower, Anchorage, And IUL Perpetual Motion Machines Jun 20, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Mark, Casey, and Kyle. We discuss transitioning from a drecky complicated Personal Capital/Empower portfolio to a simple risk-parity style portfolio, the song "Anchorage", and Sam Kinison's take on an IUL policy.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Mark's Portfolio Analysis: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Testfol.io Analysis of Mark's Portfolio: testfol.io
Larry Kennedy Album on Spotify: Everybody Knows - Album by Larry Kennedy | Spotify
Andy Panko's Insurance Playlist: Insurance - YouTube

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Episode 345: Concerns About Indexing, Larry Swedroe's Portfolio, ROAD HOUSE, And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 7, 2024 Jun 09, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from David, Eric from Cincy, and Pete. We discuss Mike Green's recent commentary about index fund trends and whether its a problem, ROAD HOUSE, children, and Larry Swedroe's esoteric personal portfolio.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Mike Green Interview: Michael Green: Market Efficiency Is Not The Question | Rational Reminder 302 (youtube.com)
Larry Swedroe Article #1: Addressing Issues With High U.S. Equity Valuations (kitces.com)
Larry Swedroe Article #2: In The Long Run, Stocks Outperform Bonds, Or Do They? (kitces.com)
Larry Swedroe's Personal Portfolio: Show Us of Your Portfolio II: Larry Swedroe on Alternatives and Interval Funds (youtube.com)

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Episode 344: More Lawyer Stuff And Some Ins And Outs Of ETFs, Extended Duration Treasuries And Gold Funds Jun 06, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Dr. Anonymous, Lance, John and Eli. We discuss how to find a lawyer, extended term bond funds, gold ETFs and how ETFs are constructed.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
John's Gold ETF link: 9 low cost physical Gold ETFs for portfolio parity - SmartMoneyToolbox
ETF Article: Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF): What it is and How to Invest (investopedia.com)
"Authorized Participant" Article: What Is an Authorized Participant? Definition, Examples, Benefits (investopedia.com)

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Episode 343: Musings On Interest Rates And History, Fallacious Magic Mean Reversion, Inverse T-Bond Funds And Target Date Fund Glide Paths May 30, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Stuart, George and MyContactInfo. We discuss a follow-up on another listener's accumulation portfolio, the foibles of trying to predict future interest rates and common fallacious reasoning, levered inverse treasury bond funds and other funds that do well in rising interest rate environments, and a follow up on our target date fund rant episode (#333).
Links:
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of UPRO and synthetic alternatives: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
TestFol Analysis with an inverse treasury bond exposure: testfol.io

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Episode 342: Portfolio Charts Metrics, Cockroaches, Account Transfers And Portfolio Reviews As Of May 24, 2024 May 26, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Jeff, James and Graham. We discuss standard deviations and other metrics and tools at Portfolio Charts, revisit Episode 194 regarding the "Cockroach" portfolio, timing the transfer of a 401k to and IRA for better management options and some reasons for holding on to traditional IRAs and not converting them.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Portfolio Matrix Tool With Bookmark To Jeff's Portfolio: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Annual Returns Tool With Bookmark To Jeff's Portfolio: Annual Returns – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Drawdowns Tool With Bookmark To Jeff's Portfolio: Drawdowns – Portfolio Charts
Cockroach Portfolio Link: The Cockroach Approach Whitepaper - Mutiny Fund
Big Picture Retirement Podcast Re Roth Conversions: When Roth IRA Conversions Go Too Far (bigpictureretirement.com)

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Episode 341: Retirement Calculator Woes, Flexible Withdrawal Strategies, Creative Financing And Fixing Grandma's 19-Fund Monstrosity Portfolio May 23, 2024

In this episode we talk about some recent unfavorable changes to Portfolio Visualizer, have a look at a new backtesting tool, and then get back at it with emails from James, Andrew, Phil and Frodo. We discuss how flexible withdrawal strategies improve safe withdrawal rates and how we use them as a fail-safe or backstop to our 3-1-1 plan, options for financing buying a house, a funny Avengers video and transitioning grandma's 19-fund portfolio to something simpler and better.
Links:
Rob Berger Video re Portfolio Visualizer: Navigating Portfolio Visualizer's New Design and a Free Alternative (youtube.com)
Testfol Backtester with A Sample Analysis: testfol.io
Morningstar Report re Variable Withdrawal Strategies: Six Retirement Withdrawal Strategies that Stretch Savings | Morningstar
Portfolio Charts Variable Withdrawal Calculator: Retirement Spending – Portfolio Charts
Phil's Video: Introducing NOW internet (youtube.com)
Big ERN Article Re Cederburg Paper: 100% Stocks for the Long Run? - Early Retirement Now

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Episode 340: National Debt, Bad Uses Of Data Via Cherry-Picking, Umbrella Insurance And Portfolio Reviews As Of May 10, 2024 May 12, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Scott, Midas, and Neil. We discuss national debt apocalypse theories, the misuse and cherry-picking involved in bad data analyses and umbrella insurance.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Reinhardt & Rogoff Book: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart | Goodreads
Money For The Rest of Us National Debt Masterclass: National Debt Master Class Part 1/3 | Money for The Rest of Us
Security Analysis Podcast with Yours Truly: Frank Vasquez: Risk Parity Investing Part 2 (securityanalysis.org)
Portfolio Charts "Ingredients" Article: Three Secret Ingredients of the Most Efficient Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Long Term Treasuries vs. Stock Market 1981-2010: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Umbrella Insurance: What Is Umbrella Insurance Policy? Definition and If You Need It (investopedia.com)

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Episode 339: THEY Just Admitted Its The 5% Rule Like We've Been Saying, FI Is For Everybody And Answers To Your Emails May 09, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Average Joe, Matt, Kimbrough and Jon. We discuss goooooold, Matt's proposed portfolio, preferred shares fund PFF and how often to look at your portfolio without going insane.
But first we discuss a recent article from David Blanchett recognizing that a 5% withdrawal rate ought to be the standard for financial planners and a New York Times article about financial independence and the EconoMe conference.
Links:
David Blanchett 5% Rule Article: Is the 4% Rule Too Safe? | ThinkAdvisor
2013 Article Saying the Opposite: The 4 Percent Rule is Not Safe in a Low-Yield World by Michael S. Finke, Wade D. Pfau, David Blanchett :: SSRN
New York Times FIRE Article (paywall): Meet the FIRE Savers Who Retired Early - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
Matt's Proposed Portfolio: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 338: Long Term Treasury Bond Funds, The 3-1-1 Withdrawal Guidelines, And The Growth/Value Split In Stock Allocations May 02, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Kimbrough from Anchorage and anonymous Visitors from British Columbia and Denver. We discuss fish hatching and slaughterhouses, long term treasury bond funds, the inherent problems and inefficiencies with many popular but inflexible withdrawal plans, and how we use our flexible 3-1-1 guidelines to match and maximize spending, fixing a cash hoarding problem and why you want a growth/value split in your stock allocations.
Links:
Security Analysis Podcast with Yours Truly: Frank Vasquez: Risk Parity Investing Part 2 (securityanalysis.org)
VSG's Weird Portfolio: Weird Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Merriman Best-In-Class ETFs: Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations | Merriman Financial Education Foundation (paulmerriman.com)
Merriman Podcast re Best-In-Class ETFs: Best in Class ETF 2024 Updates (paulmerriman.com)

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Episode 337: Flirting With Law Schools, The Best Of Berger, Bucketeering And Robo-Things, And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 26, 2024 Apr 28, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Steve, Mark, and Judy. We take a frolic and detour into talking about going to law schools, talk about some Rob Berger videos and bucketeering, robo-advisor things and why they are not very helpful, and better choices.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Spring 2024 Newsletter: Newsletter Spring 2024 - Father McKenna Center
Rob Berger Video on "Know Nothing" Portfolios: Fed Chair Powell Just Taught A Masterclass On Investing (youtube.com)
Rob Berger Interview of Harold Evensky: Conversation with the Father of the Bucket Strategy--Harold Evensky - YouTube
Rob Berger On "Bucket Strategies" Generally: The Bucket Strategy is Flawed--Do this Instead - YouTube
Rob Berger On The "Never Retire" Retirement Strategy: 7 Reasons to Never, Ever Retire (even if you can) (youtube.com)

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Episode 336: Gold And Mental Models Of Crowds And History, The Truth About Inflation In Retirement, And More On Global Portfolios Apr 25, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Zane, Slim Jim, and Jim Kirk. We discuss recent moves in world gold markets, good and bad mental models of collective action and critical events, including Mimetic Theory and fractal sand pile models, avoiding the physical metals racket, the data and evidence showing that retirees experience inflation at a much lower rate than the CPI (and most financial planners and DIYers get this completely wrong, resulting in bad planning), and the new global portfolio analysis article at Portfolio Charts (again).
Links:
Retirement Spending Smile models: What Is The 'Retirement Spending Smile'? | Retirement Researcher
Spending Trajectories After Age 65 Research Paper and Summary: Spending Trajectories After Age 65: Variation by Initial Wealth | RAND
Portfolio Charts Article Re Global Portfolios: What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 335: Humorous Musings On 4/20, Asset Swaps In Retirement Accounts, A Global Portfolio Analysis And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 19, 2024 Apr 21, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Anderson, Brian and Drew. We entertain ourselves on 4/20 with Anderson's "Uncle Frank" Portfolio and learn something from it, discuss asset swapping for management of retirement accounts with a hat tip to Justin (Risk Parity Chronicles), and discuss the new Global Portfolio analysis and tools from Tyler at Portfolio Charts.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Anderson's "Uncle Frank" Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
"How To Do An Asset Swap" Video From Justin: How to Do an Asset Swap (youtube.com)
New Portfolio Charts Global Portfolio Analysis And Tools: What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 334: Comparative Analyses At PV, Comparative Safe Withdrawal Rates, Foolish Consistencies, And Fee Spats In ETF World Apr 18, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Andrew, Sameer and James. We discuss some portfolio comparisons of levered 60/40 portfolios, interpreting and comparing safe withdrawal rates from various calculators and their practical application in consideration of variable expenses and needs (our 3-1-1 flexible withdrawal plan), the foolish consistencies of DIYer and financial planners who seem to enjoy discouraging retirement spending, and recent articles about Fidelity's spat with some ETF providers.
Links:
Kyle's Portfolio #1: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Kyle's Portfolios #1 and #2: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Kyle's Portfolios #1, #2 and #3: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Golden Butterfly Portfolio -- SWR And Other Characteristics: Golden Butterfly Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Larry Swedroe Interview About New Book and Factor Investing: ‘Buffett really was not a great stock picker’: Financial researcher Larry Swedroe on how investors can emulate the billionaire investor – NBC Connecticut
Article #1 re Fidelity and Fees: Fidelity Puts Nine ETF Firms on Notice That New Fees Are Looming - Bloomberg (archive.fo)
Article #2 re Fidelity and Fees: Fidelity Adds Surcharge to ETF Platform | etf.com

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Episode 333: Putting The Hammer Down With A Rant On Target Date Funds And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 12, 2024 Apr 14, 2024

In this episode we answer an email from Ingrid. We discuss target date funds in depth and why they are not good choices for investors. We review their history and recent academic research that reveals the truth. You may not like it, but we hope you can handle it.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional link:
Referenced Academic Paper Revealing The Awful Truth About Target Date Funds: The Unintended Consequences of Investing for the Long Run: Evidence from Target Date Funds by Massimo Massa, Rabih Moussawi, Andrei Simonov :: SSRN

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Episode 332: Assisting Elderly Parents, A Levered Accumulation Portfolio, And The "You-Know-You-Won" G Fund Apr 10, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Ed, Anderson and Joe. We discuss assisting aging parents running out of money, Anderson's levered accumulation portfolio and locating the assets, and using the G Fund in a TSP as a short-term bond fund.
Links:
Portfolio Matrix Used to Analyze Anderson's Portfolio (insert allocations per podcast): Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts
Morningstar Article re G Fund: How Good Is the Federal Government’s G Fund? | Morningstar

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Episode 331: Dollar Stories, The Rule Of 55, The Nicest Guy of FI, Basic Portfolio Construction Principles, And Reviews As Of April 5, 2024 Apr 07, 2024

In this episode we answer questions from Dale, Brad and Corey. We discuss a new paper about US dollar dominance and the common narrative fallacies associated with that issue, using the Rule of 55 for 401(k) withdrawals, the Nicest Guy of FI, and the basics of constructing portfolios with high historical safe withdrawal rates.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Marketwatch Article: Dethrone the dollar? 5 charts show how U.S. currency still rules world economy. - MarketWatch
Paper re Status of US Dollar: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Schwab Article re The Rule of 55: Retiring Early? 5 Key Points about the Rule of 55 | Charles Schwab
DBMF Quarterly Review: iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF Update with Andrew Beer | April 2024 (youtube.com)
Andrew Beer Interview On The Development And Use Of Managed Futures In Diversified Portfolios: SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following ft. Andrew Beer | Top Traders Unplugged
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix Tool: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 330: Charitable Donation Methods, Speculating On Inflation And Applying Shannon's Demon To Prioritize Our Investing Principles Apr 04, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Jon, Eli, and George. We discuss using the tools at Portfolio Charts, methods of charitable giving to our favorite charity, extreme podcast listening, what to invest in if you are speculating on inflation next year and other gambling problems, and applying the math of Shannon's Demon to show us why we should not let the Simplicity Principle tail wag the Holy Grail principle diversification dog when constructing diversified portfolios.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
New Portfolio Charts Article re Gold and Global Safe Withdrawal Rates: What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Shannon's Demon Article from Market Sentiment: Shannon's Demon - Market Sentiment
Shannon's Demon Article from Portfolio Charts: Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio Charts
Shannon's Demon Article from World Scientific: SWITCHING BETWEEN TWO LOSING STOCKS MAY ENABLE PARADOXICAL WIN: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS (worldscientific.com)
Shannon's Demon Article from Breaking The Market: The Great Age of Rebalancing Begins - (breakingthemarket.com)

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Episode 329: Fun With Transitions, The Portfolio Charts Tools, And GOOOOLD, Along With Portfolio Reviews As Of March 29, 2024 Mar 31, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Jetson and Jon (x2). We discuss good times to trade, transitioning to a risk parity style portfolio with sub-optimal components and related considerations, experimenting with and learnings from the tools at Portfolio Charts, including the Portfolio Matrix and Drawdown Analyzer, and Gooooold!
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center: Home - Father McKenna Center
Portfolio Matrix Calculator: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Drawdowns Calculator: Drawdowns – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts "Ingredients" Article: Three Secret Ingredients of the Most Efficient Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Safe Withdrawal Rate Series Article about Gold: Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk - SWR Series Part 34 - Early Retirement Now

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Episode 328: Rebalancing Leveraged Portfolios, Asset Location Considerations, And All Hail BLAZING SADDLES! Mar 28, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Mark, Justin, and Cy, and also update our answer to last episode's email from Sean. We talk about a different approach to Sean's situation, Mark's experiments with leveraged funds, rebalancing and assorted gambling problems, reporting on the sample portfolios at the website, the difficulties of trying to plan "how much" goes in retirement, Roth and ordinary accounts, and a full-on nostalgic Blazing Saddles experience.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Mark's Experimental Portfolio Backtest: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3rBetjbWFjRbRZSN6uMuIa
Shannon's Demon Article: Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio Charts
Recent Interview of Value Stock Geek: Inside the Mind of a Value Investor w/ Value Stock Geek (theinvestorspodcast.com)
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 327: Quick-Time Harch, AQR Funds, Bond Ladders, Global Population And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 22, 2024 Mar 24, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Andrew, Sean, and MyContactInfo. We discuss QDSIX and other AQR funds and their approaches, good and bad uses of bond ladders, and macro-issues pertaining to projected global population declines in the future.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
QDSIX fact page: AQR Diversifying Strategies Fund - QDSIX
Ben Carlson Article on Bond Funds vs. Bond Ladders: Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund - A Wealth of Common Sense
Niall Ferguson Article: Global Population Collapse Isn't Sci-Fi Anymore: Niall Ferguson - Bloomberg
Shock of Gray Book: Shock of Gray: The Aging of the World's Population and How it Pits Young Against Old, Child Against Parent, Worker Against Boss, Company Against Rival, and Nation Against Nation by Ted C. Fishman | Goodreads
Hans Rosling's Factfulness: Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling | Goodreads
Hans Rosling Video on Population: Why the world population won’t exceed 11 billion | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG (youtube.com)
Hans Rosling Factfulness Video: The mindset of factfulness | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG (youtube.com)
Happy Pod: BBC World Service - Global News Podcast, The Happy Pod: The gift of sight
Portfolio Charts Withdrawal Rates Article: How to Harness the Flowing Nature of Withdrawal Rate Math – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix Comparison Tool: Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Risk-Return Comparison Tool: Risk And Return – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 326: A Review of Why We Are Here, Golden Portfolios, The Non-Spenders' Plague, Revisiting Shannon's Demon, Oversimplification Is NOT The Real Goal, And Emerging Market Musings Mar 21, 2024

In this episode we review why we are here and then answer emails from Paulo, Paul G, and Carlos. We discuss our recent trip to the EconoMe Conference, Paulo's portfolio ideas, the plague of being unable to spend money that afflicts most popular personal finance personalities, Mark's Money Mind (a new podcast), why the Simplicity Principle should not override the Holy Grail and other investing principles, and investing from emerging market countries.
Links:
Mark's Money Mind podcast (YouTube version): The Financial Speedometer: Tracking Your Income & Expenses | Episode 004 (youtube.com)
Paul G's Golden Butterfly analyses: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=2lyVPkZFRfTEgVF8cZIAe5
Shannon's Demon and Rebalancing Article: Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio Charts
Carlos' Article re Emerging Markets: Safe withdrawal rates from retirement savings for residents of emerging market countries (repec.org)

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Episode 325: Talking Horses, Ray Dalio, Peruvian Guinea Pigs And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 8, 2024 Mar 10, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Ed, Jesse and Kyle. We discuss TMF and leverage in bond funds (and gambling problems), my recent ranting in Episode 321 and Ray Dalio's limitations and foibles, and my musings on guinea pigs and our recent trip to Peru. It's action packed!
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
And add a note about the upcoming EconoMe Conference.
Additional links:
TMF web-page with holdings: 20+ Year Treasury Bull and Bear 3X ETFs | TMF TMV | Direxion
Portfolio Visualizer TMF vs. TLT vs. ZROZ Analysis: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=7aqdp6fzBF4NWiP8rUdH9m
Claude Shannon's Demon Article: Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio Charts
Father McKenna Center: Home - Father McKenna Center
EconoMe Conference Speakers: Our Speakers - EconoMe (economeconference.com)

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Episode 324: Here's Johnny With A Withdrawal Plan, What To Do When You Have Not Saved Enough And A Little RSBT Mar 06, 2024

In this episode we answer questions from Mark, Broken Jack and Gus. We discuss a specific withdrawal plan and why it does not need to be too complicate, the considerations and differences between complicated or risk-based problems and complex or uncertainty-based problems, ideas for people who have not saved enough by the time they get to their sixties and why to avoid "magic button" investment strategies like buy-write funds and deal with a correction about the ETF RSBT.
Links:
Immediate Annuities Website for Pricing Simple Annuities: Immediate Annuities - Income Annuity Quote Calculator - ImmediateAnnuities.com
The Misbehavior of Markets by Benoit Mandelbrot: The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence: Mandelbrot, Benoit, Hudson, Richard L.: 9780465043576: Amazon.com: Books
Catching Up To FI for Late Starters: Financial Independence - Catching up to FI
RSBT Website and Information: Bonds Managed Futures - Return Stacked ETF (returnstackedetfs.com)
Father McKenna Center: Home - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 323: Flogging A Dead Horse, Jerry Parker And TFPN, Portfolio Shifts, And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 1, 2024 Mar 03, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Richard, Andrew and Drew. We discuss the now much-maligned Cederburg paper (again) and listen to Cliff Asness flog it, Jerry Parker's new managed futures ETF, TFPN and guidelines for making portfolio shifts.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
And add a note about the upcoming EconoMe Conference.
Additional links:
Cliff Asness Commentary About the Cederburg Paper: Why Not 100% Equities (aqr.com)
BankerOnWheels Article About the Cederburg Paper: Should You Invest 100% In Equities? (bankeronwheels.com)
Tommy Boy Clip: Tommy Boy (8/10) Movie CLIP - Housekeeping (1995) HD (youtube.com)
Jerry Parker on podcast about TFPN: TTU145: Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital (toptradersunplugged.com)
TFPN Webpage: Trend Following ETF | Blueprint Fund Management (tfpnetf.com)
EconoMe Conference: EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024

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Episode 322: Aggregating Portfolios, Leverage, Festivus, Leeroy Jenkins And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 23, 2024 Feb 25, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Damon, Pete and Jeff. We discuss the benefits of aggregating assets and portfolios as a couple, basic tax location ideas, children with gambling problems and fun games to play with them, and resources for researching leveraged, diversified portfolios (e.g., "Return Stacking").
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Leveraged ETFs Article: Double-Digit Numerics - Articles - The Big Myth about Leveraged ETFs (ddnum.com)
Ben Felix Video On Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) (youtube.com)
Return Stacked Article: Capital Market Assumptions when Return Stacking - Return Stacked® Portfolio Solutions
Return Stacked ETFs: Home - Return Stacked ETF (returnstackedetfs.com)
Ray Dalio Video on Holy Grail Principle: Ray Dalio breaks down his "Holy Grail" (youtube.com)
Optimized Portfolio Website: Optimized Portfolio - Investing and Personal Finance
Portfolio Visualizer Backtester: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
ReSolve Riffs Podcast: ReSolve Riffs Investment Podcast - ReSolve Asset Management (investresolve.com)
Simplify Assets Podcast: Keeping it Simple Series with Mike Green & Harley Bassman | Simplify
Flirting With Models Podcast (Corey Hoffstein): Flirting with Models – The podcast all about quantitative investing

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Episode 321: A Small Rant About Newman Selling Annuities At Local Steakhouses Feb 22, 2024

In this episode, we reflect on a recent podcast from the Value Stock Geek and embark on a nice little rant about recent mailings I have received from the financial services industry.
Link:
Security Analysis Podcast from the Value Stock Geek: The Security Analysis Podcast | Value Stock Geek | Substack

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Episode 320: Golden Intermediate Accumulations, Long Dollar Funds, Temporary US Residency And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 16, 2024 Feb 18, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Lee, Phil and Carl. We discuss using Golden Butterfly and Golden Ratio portfolios for intermediate accumulations, the Cederburg Pickelhaube Portfolio (again), funds UUP and EUO as diversifiers, our open source business model and tax issues for US temporary residents.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Portfolio Visualizer Backtester: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Charts Risk/Return Comparison Tool: Risk And Return – Portfolio Charts
Nomad Capitalist site: Nomad Capitalist | Offshore Tax and Lifestyle Strategies for Entrepreneurs

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Episode 319: Transitioning A Simple FIRE Portfolio, The Pickelhaube Portfolio And More Fun With Leverage Feb 15, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Robert, MyContactInfo, and Stuart. We discuss growing and transitioning a FIRE portfolio, the drawbacks of too much cash, the Cederburg paper (again) and his Pickelhaube Portfolio, and more fun with leveraged ETFs.
Links:
Sean Mullaney Podcast re 72(t): How to Access Your Retirement Accounts Before 59.5 | Sean Mullaney | Ep 475 | ChooseFI
Ben Felix Article re the Cederburg paper: Understanding the role of bonds in retirement portfolios | Advisor.ca
Early Retirement Now Critique of the Cederburg Paper: 100% Stocks for the Long Run? - Early Retirement Now
Paper on Optimal Leverage: Double-Digit Numerics - Articles - The Big Myth about Leveraged ETFs (ddnum.com)

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Episode 318: Leverage, Revealed Preferences In Portfolio Construction, Andean Flutes And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 9, 2024 Feb 11, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Anderson, Dennis and Brian. We discuss a proposed levered portfolio and leverage in general, revealed preferences applied to portfolio construction and matching construction to actual or stated goals and staying alive with Andean flute playing.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Ben Felix Video On Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) (youtube.com)
Optimized Portfolios: Optimized Portfolio - Investing and Personal Finance
Warren Buffett's Alpha Article: Full article: Buffett’s Alpha (tandfonline.com)
Excess Returns -- Show Us Your Portfolio: Show Us Your Portfolio: Corey Hoffstein (youtube.com)
Rational Reminder Podcast -- Best Practices In Family Wealth Management: Episode 282: Dr. Jim Grubman: The Psychology of Wealth — Rational Reminder

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Episode 317: Motorin' With Leveraged Fund Analyses And Tax Reporting Of Gold ETFs Feb 08, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Blake, Brown and Christian. We discuss new research into the long-term performance of leveraged funds, other gambling problems and the tax reporting of gold ETFs.
Links:
Blake's Backtest: Unleveraged TQQQ (portfoliotree.com)
Blake's Article: ⚠️ Leveraged ETFs ⚠️. Why They Sell Themselves Short | by ETF_Guy | Jan, 2024 | Medium
Corey Hoffstein's Return Stacked ETFs: Home - Return Stacked ETF (returnstackedetfs.com)
Ben Felix Video on Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) (youtube.com)
Christian's Link re GLDM Tax Data: World-Gold-MiniShares-Tax-Data-12-31-22-Final.pdf (spdrgoldshares.com)
GLDM Prospectus: doc-viewer (ssga.com)

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Episode 316: Musings On Inflation, Gambling Problems And Private Real Estate Funds And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 2, 2024 Feb 04, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Matthew, Matthew and Matthew. Our development has apparently been arrested. We discuss basic principles and economic history pertaining to inflation, a levered accumulation portfolio and why private real estate platforms are largely just a "meh" kind of investment.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
When Money Dies: When Money Dies: The Nightmare of the Weimar Hyper-inflation by Adam Fergusson | Goodreads
Lords of Finance: Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World by Liaquat Ahamed | Goodreads
Fifty Years In Wall Street: Fifty Years in Wall Street | Wiley
Price of Time: The Price of Time by Edward Chancellor | Goodreads
This Time is Different: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart | Goodreads
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Matthew's Proposed Levered Portfolio: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=16aW147QWi5jCXws2tqXpg
EconoMe Conference (discount code "riskparityradio"): EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024
White Coat Investor Private Real Estate Affiliate Links: Real Estate Investing Company Partners | White Coat Investor

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Episode 315: Cognitive Biases Surrounding Long-Term Care And Rational Approaches, Assorted Portfolio Alternatives and GOOOLD! Feb 01, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Paulo, Phil, and Visitor 5858. We discuss cognitive biases in the context of long-term care and unexpected medical expenses, follow ups on Episodes 307 and 308, David Stein's "garden approach" to investing, and what the purpose of gold is in a diversified portfolio.
And talk about our recent vacation in Peru.
Links:
Peter Attia's "Outlive" book: Outlive: The Science & Art of Longevity - New Book by Peter Attia (peterattiamd.com)
"Happy Body" book: The Happy Body Book Home - The Happy Body

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Episode 314: Various Forays In Portfolio Visualizer, Rebalancing Timing Issues And The Holiday Road Jan 17, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Paul, Greg and Stuart. We discuss various portfolio visualizer analyses, correlations, Sharpe and Sortino ratios and issues pertaining to rebalancing.
Links;
Paul's Truncated Analysis: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=3fTid2mNzw2PPRhYmjAGGz
Longer Analysis with More Data: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=2PBlJj89KNGhCiNBkCDMaV
Larry Swedroe's Portfolio: Show Us of Your Portfolio II: Larry Swedroe on Alternatives and Interval Funds (youtube.com)
VISVX (VSIAX) vs. VBR Comparison: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=2bfrlatwi8J4WhwvLR8dIo
Corey Hoffstein on Rebalancing Timing #1: Corey Hoffstein - Rebalance Timing Luck (S2E11) (youtube.com)
Corey Hoffstein on Rebalancing Timing #2: 10 Reducing 'Timing Luck' and Liquidity Cascades - Corey Hoffstein, Newfound Research (youtube.com)
Optimal Rebalancing Article: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)
Smart Portfolios Book: Smart Portfolios: A practical guide to building and maintaining intelligent investment portfolios: Carver, Robert: 9780857195319: Amazon.com: Books

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Episode 313: Montecarlo Simulations, Accumulation Portfolios, Dr. Who, And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 12, 2024 Jan 14, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Mr. Klingon, Bob, MyContactInfo, and Ralph. We discuss the Macro-Allocation Principle and Accumulation Portfolios, using a value-tilt for decumulation, the ins and outs of Monte Carlo simulations, Dr. Who and using gold in an accumulation portfolio.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Monte Carlo Analysis of 80/20 Portfolio on Portfolio Visualizer: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Monte Carlo Analysis of Diversified Retirement Portfolio: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
EconoMe Conference (code "riskparityradio" to save 10%): EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024

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Episode 312: Financial "Experts", US Dollar And Debt And Correlations (Oh My!), Portfolio Income And Total Returns, And Managed Futures In A Golden Ratio Portfolio Jan 11, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Allison, Kenny and Steve. We discuss the methods and madnesses of financial media and the industry, modeling financial "experts" as hedgehogs and foxes, US dollars and debt, and correlations between treasury bonds and stocks, why portfolio income is just part of total returns and is not special, and incorporating managed futures into a Golden Ratio-style portfolios.
Links:
Duke Paper on Treasury/Stock Market Correlations: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Picture Perfect Portfolios Comparison of Managed Futures ETFs: What's The Best Managed Futures ETF? DBMF vs KMLM vs CTA (pictureperfectportfolios.com)

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Episode 311: Portfolio Visualizer Data, Switching Allocations, Managed Futures ETFs, Bluto, EconoMe And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 5, 2024 Jan 07, 2024

In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Andy, Eric and Bluto. We discuss datasets at Portfolio Visualizer, guidelines for making allocation changes in a portfolio generallly and with managed futures, managed futures funds DBMF, KMLM and CTA and distribution issues, and EconoMe Conference 2024.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Kyle's First Portfolio Visualizer Link: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Kyle's Second Portfolio Visualizer Link: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Kyle's CASHX PV Link: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
ETF Database -- Managed Futures Funds: Managed Futures ETF List (etfdb.com)
Simplify ETFs Distribution List (CTA and others): Simplify Provides Estimated Capital Gain Distribution Information for 2023 | Simplify
EconoMe Conference -- Use Code "riskparityradio" for 10% discount: EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024

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Episode 310: Annual Portfolio Reviews And Bonus Nonsensical Ravings Jan 04, 2024

In this episode we do our annual portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio and compare them with various commercial reference portfolios.
And entertain a four-year old child and our adult offspring.

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Episode 309: Shifting Allocation Strategies, Preferred Shares, Correlation Issues And Principles -- And High Jinks! Dec 31, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Slippery Steve, Keith, Brian, and Kyle. We discuss a momentum allocation strategy called "the 12% Solution" and complex allocation strategies in general, preferred shares and preferred shares funds, notions about correlations from Rick Ferri's All About Asset Allocation book (pub. 2005 and 2010), putting the Simplicity Principle in it's proper context (not the first priority), and a fun listener-provided sound clip.
Link:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Duke Research Paper re Stock Market and Treasury Bond Correlations: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Morningstar Analysis of PFFD: PFFD – Portfolio – Global X US Preferred ETF | Morningstar
Morningstar Analysis of JNK: JNK – Portfolio – SPDR® Blmbg High Yield Bd ETF | Morningstar
All About Asset Allocation (2010): All About Asset Allocation, Second Edition: Ferri, Richard A. A.: 9780071700788: Amazon.com: Books
Kyle's Rodney Dangerfield Clip: Then, Sell Sell Sell - Caddyshack (youtube.com)

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Episode 308: Annual Reflections And Thanks, Safe Withdrawal Rates, And Coming Attractions Dec 28, 2023

In this rather short episode we answer emails from Ralph, Scott, Eric, the Mysterious Visitor 9575, and Steven. We discuss my recent absence and predilections for silliness, a recent podcast from the Inflation Guy about safe withdrawal rates and coming updates to the website.
Links:
Inflation Guy Podcast Episode: Ep. 92: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Accounting for Inflation | Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast (podbean.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles: Risk Parity Chronicles
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 307: A Panoply Of Holiday Topics, The Reinfather And Portfolio Reviews As Of December 22, 2023 Dec 24, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Keith, Pete and Tim. We discuss developments in factor-based investing, portfolio transitions, RMDs, the recent Cederburg paper (again) and what goes on Down Under. And another visit from Lee-roy Jenkins.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Charity Navigator Score For the Father McKenna Center: Charity Navigator - Rating for Father McKenna Center Inc.
Alpha Architect Article On The Value Factor: AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdf (alphaarchitect.com)
Cederburg Paper (Again): delivery.php (ssrn.com)
New Rational Reminder Podcast with Scott Cederburg: Professor Scott Cederburg: Challenging the Status Quo on Lifecycle Asset Allocation | RR 284 (youtube.com)
Canstar Site with Aussie ETF Options: Compare Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) | Canstar

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Episode 306: Bootstrapping and EconoMe and Mini-ranting, Oh My! Dec 21, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Jenzo, Priah and Matt. We discuss a levered portfolio and tracking errors, the limitation of Scott Cederburg's latest academic paper, bootstrapping -- what it is and how it works --, what "blend" means in factor-speak, and some pitfalls with Portfolio Visualizer's datasets,
And also the upcoming EconoMe Conference in March 2024 with a discount code for our listeners, "riskparityradio":
Links:
EconoMe Conference: EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024
Academic Paper Critical of Lifecycle Investment Advice: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Rational Reminder Podcast re same paper: Lifecycle Asset Allocation, and Retiring Successfully with Justin King | Rational Reminder 281 - YouTube
Portfolio Visualizer Documentation: Portfolio Visualizer Documentation
Matt's First Montecarlo Analysis: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Matt's Second Montecarlo Analysis: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Modifying Matt's Analysis to Account for Earlier Data: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Father McKenna Center Charity Navigator Rating: Charity Navigator - Rating for Father McKenna Center Inc.

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Episode 305: The Mac Daddy's Back With Portfolio Analysis, More Cowbell, And Portfolio Reviews As Of December 15, 2023 Dec 18, 2023

In this episode we return from hiatus to answer emails from Popeye, Clint and Mr. Klingon. We discuss a JP Morgan report, giving to the Father McKenna Center, adventures with a bad planner-provided portfolio and how to fix it, and that cowbell known as small cap value.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
JP Morgan Reports: Guide to the Markets | J.P. Morgan Asset Management (jpmorgan.com)
Father McKenna Center Donate Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Merriman Best In Class Fund Recommendations: Best ETF Recommendations | Merriman Foundation (paulmerriman.com)
Small Cap Growth v. Small Cap Value Since 1972: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 304: Catching Up To Pinwheels, The F Fund And Wealthfront And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 17, 2023 Nov 19, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Visitor 5970, Frank, Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude") and Paul. We discuss the bond funds in the TSP, the Catching Up To FI podcast, Wealthfront's atrocious attempt at a risk parity fund and the Pinwheel Portfolio.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
TSP F Fund: F Fund | The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)
Catching Up To FI podcast on YouTube: Catching up to FI - YouTube
Wealthfront's Troubled Risk Parity Fund: WFRPX – Wealthfront Risk Parity W Fund Stock Price | Morningstar
The Pinwheel Portfolio: Pinwheel Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Risk-Return Portfolio Comparisons: Risk And Return – Portfolio Charts
Value Stock Geek Interview of Yours Truly: Frank Vasquez - Risk Parity Investing for the DIY Investor (securityanalysis.org)

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Episode 303: Personal Capital/Empower Extraction, Gold & Silver ETFs, Killing Kenny And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 10, 2023 Nov 12, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Steve, Jeff and Kenny. We discuss the complex foibles of Empower/Personal Capital portfolios and transitioning them. investing in gold and silver and tax treatments, and using the Vanguard Wellesley Fund as a model for very conservative investors.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Rob Berger Video about Investing In Gold: How to Buy Gold (Without Getting Ripped Off) - YouTube
Taxation of Gold ETFs Article: How Taxes Work For A Gold ETF Or ETP Investment (etftrends.com)
Taxation of PHYS Fund: Tax Information - Physical Gold Trust (sprott.com)
Yahoo version of Article re taxation of gold ETFs: How Taxes Work For Gold ETF & ETP Investments (yahoo.com)
Taxation of Section 1256 Contracts: Section 1256 Contract: Definition and Tax Rules (investopedia.com)
Vanguard Wellesley Portfolio: VWIAX – Portfolio – Vanguard Wellesley® Income Admiral™ | Morningstar
Risk Parity Chronicles: Risk Parity Chronicles

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Episode 302: Bond Speculations, Golden Ratios, Fighting For Iowa Farmland And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 3, 2023 Nov 04, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from William, Tyler and Builderman. We discuss making changes in treasury bond fund allocations and the foibles of interest rate crystal balls, using the Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo simulator to model Golden Ratio style portfolios and musings about Iowa farmland and other family dynasty-type investments. And we Fight, Fight, Fight for Iowa. Errata: I said "Large Cap Value" in the answer to Tyler's question when I meant "Large Cap Growth." Doh!
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Tyler's Golden Ratio Portfolio Analysis (Tickers): Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Tyler's Golden Ratio Portfolio Analysis (Asset Classes): Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Golden Ratio Portfolio Analysis (Longer-Term Asset Classes): Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Interview with Anthony Deden: Modern-Day Asset Management Business w/ Anthony Deden - YouTube
Risk Parity Chronicles: Risk Parity Chronicles

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Episode 301: CAOS and Calculators and Bonds, Oh My! And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 27, 2023 Oct 29, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude"), MyContactInfo and James. We discuss a couple new ETFs, CAOS and AHLT, follow up on earlier discussions about retirement calculators and investing in long term treasury bonds (VGLT and EDV).
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
CAOS on Morningstar: CAOS – Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar
Khan Academy link -- Geometric Sums: Finite geometric series word problem: mortgage (video) | Khan Academy
Risk Parity Chronicles Article on Long Treasuries: The Long Bond Apocalypse (riskparitychronicles.com)
Yours Truly on "Catching Up to FI": 044 | Sponge Bob and Drawdown Strategies | Frank Vasquez - YouTube

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Episode 300: Where Its At With The Infernal JEPI And Musings About Gold And Portfolio Visualizer Oct 26, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Mark, Mark and Cody. We discuss what first Mark learned by investigating JEPI, the history of investing in gold over the past 100 years and how that may affect the data, and potential data limitations in Portfolio Visualizer on very long Monte Carlo simulations.
Bonus Links:
The Mysterious London Gold Pool: London Gold Pool - Wikipedia
Gold Mining Shares In the Great Depression: Gold Stocks Were Financial Saviors During The 1930s | Gold Eagle (gold-eagle.com)

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Episode 299: Modeling Iowa Farmland, Cash Is No Longer Trash (Apparently), And Venture Capital Foibles Oct 19, 2023

In this episode we answer questions from BuilderMan, Drew and MyContactInfo. We discuss how to incorporate farmland and other illiquid, income-producing assets in retirement expense planning, the perilous process of trying to manage a portfolio based on expert picks -- here, Ray Dalio -- and why venture capital may not be so smart.
And then we discuss the new Risk Parity Chronicles Monthly Roundup and a rebalancing of the Accelerated Permanent Portfolio sample portfolio.
And we sing the Iowa Corn Song!
Links:
Gladstone LAND ETF: LAND - Gladstone Land Corp Chart - NASDAQ | Morningstar
Ray Dalio Article About Cash: (24) The Thinking Behind Why Cash Is Now Good (and not Trash) | LinkedIn
Aswath Damodaran Blog Article on Venture Capital: Musings on Markets: Putting the (Insta)cart before the (Grocery) horse: A COVID Favorite's Reality Check! (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles Risk Parity Roundup: Risk Parity Roundup: October 2023 (riskparitychronicles.com)

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Episode 298: Coffee Is For Closers, Musings About Golden Ratio Portfolios And Buy-Write Funds, And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 13, 2023 Oct 15, 2023

In this episode we answer questions from Jeff, Geordi and Eames. We discuss wrangling with a Fidelity advisors and assorted salespeople, the difference between naïve or static portfolio construction versus using crystal balls for that purpose, a modified Golden Ratio-style portfolio, the pitfalls of buy-write funds like JEPI and BALI and a small issue with the website.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

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Episode 297: Common Foibles Of Retirement Calculators, Contribution Considerations And Our Favorite Whipping Boy Oct 11, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Kyle and Eric. We discuss the pitfalls of retirement tools with help from Newman, Bob Ross and a contribution question and our old semi-nemesis, TIPS.
Link:
Bill Bernstein TIPS Ladder Article: Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives

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Episode 296: Thinking About Data Sets and Portfolio Selection, Donor Advised Funds And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 6, 2023 Oct 08, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Dave and Kanembou (from Chad). We discuss the ins and outs of various data sets (as opposed to crystal balls), choosing a portfolio based on aggressiveness or conservativeness, related safe withdrawal rate issues and Donor Advised Funds.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix Tool: PORTFOLIO MATRIX – Portfolio Charts
Early Retirement Now Toolbox: An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) - Early Retirement Now

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Episode 295: Meta-Ideas About Portfolios, Withdrawal Strategies, Worthy Stuff To Do, And International Taxation And Fad ETFs Oct 05, 2023

In this jam-packed episode we answer questions from Luke, Ethan, and Garry. We discuss a modified Golden Butterfly portfolio, some meta-withdrawal strategy ideas and concepts, a process for deciding what to do with oneself, small-cap vs. small-cap value investments, some esoteric international tax issues and the new QQQY gambling problem fund. And throw in some Tom Waits to boot.
Links:
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix Tool: PORTFOLIO MATRIX – Portfolio Charts
Five Regrets of the Dying: The Top Five Regrets of the Dying - Wikipedia
Stephen Kotler "Flow" Video -- Short Version: How to enter ‘flow state’ on command | Steven Kotler for Big Think - YouTube
Ethan's International Tax Article: Nonresident alien investors and Ireland domiciled ETFs - Bogleheads
QQQY Summary Prospectus: Microsoft Word - qqqy_497k-091523.docx (defianceetfs.com)

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Episode 294: An Exquisite Dissection Of The "Four Percent Rule" And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 29, 2023 Oct 01, 2023

In this episode we answer an email from Jeffrey about the "4% Rule". We discuss its origins, its three parameters (portfolio construction, time frame, and withdrawal mechanism), how it works, what it means and doesn't mean, its uses and misuses and how to make adjustments to improve your own outcomes.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. We have a rebalancing of the Levered Golden Ratio portfolio.
Additional links:
Bill Bengen's Original 1994 Safe Withdrawal Rate Paper: FPA Journal - The Best of 25 Years: Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data (financialplanningassociation.org)
2022 Morningstar Report on Withdrawal Strategies: Six Retirement Withdrawal Strategies that Stretch Savings | Morningstar
Risk Savvy Video Lecture: Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions - YouTube
Bias-Variance Dilemma Dartboard Explanation (also listen to Episode 49 of this podcast): WTF is the Bias-Variance Tradeoff? (Infographic) (elitedatascience.com)

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Episode 293: Property & Casualty Investing, RPC, Brokerage Thoughts and Assorted Advanced Portfolio Constructions Sep 28, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Brown, Justin, MyContactInfo and an Anonymous Trending Value Investor. We discuss investing in baskets of property & casualty insurance companies for effective diversification, what's happening at Risk Parity Chronicles, general thoughts about brokerages for DIY investors and an assortment of leveraged momentum-based strategies.
Links:
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center
KBWP Portfolio: KBWP – Portfolio – Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Ins ETF | Morningstar
Portfolio Visualizer of KBWP vs. Direct Indexes: https://tinyurl.com/4sfh3s49
Risk Parity Chronicles: Risk Parity Chronicles
AVGV Article: AVGV ETF Review - Avantis All Equity Markets Value ETF (optimizedportfolio.com)
Swedroe Article on Diversification: How to think differently about diversification | TEBI (evidenceinvestor.com)
Anonymous Factor Regression Analysis: https://tinyurl.com/2vymptuz
Anonymous Portfolio Analysis: https://tinyurl.com/yzcwazdy
Trending Value Blog Post: 100% Factor Focused Equities vs Diversification Reigns Supreme (pictureperfectportfolios.com)

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Episode 292: TIPS, Dogs And Data, And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 22, 2023 Sep 24, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Owen, Jeff and Will. We discuss the commonly believed misinformation about TIPS, the ins and outs of quality dogs and investing principles, and talk about backtesting data and how it is used and misused.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. We have a rebalancing of the Levered Golden Ratio portfolio.
Additional links:
Bloomberg Presentation on How Various Assets Perform in Inflationary Environments: MH201-SteveHou-Bloomberg.pdf (markethuddle.com)
Market Huddle Video discussing Bloomberg Presentation: To Survive Disasters, You Need Smiles (guest: Steve Hou) - Market Huddle Ep.201 - YouTube
Risk Parity Chronicles series on TIPS: Eight Observations About TIPS (riskparitychronicles.com)
Bill Bernstein TIPS Ladder Article: Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 291: A Simple Portfolio, A Really Complicated Portfolio And House Hacking Went To Bar Sep 20, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Graham, Hydromod and Katie. We discuss a couple new funds from Avantis, AVGE and AVGV, and creating a portfolio with those and RSBT, Hydromod's Okay Adventure portfolio management techniques with a levered risk parity style portfolio, and Katie's questions about buying a house with her partner. And we make fun of our children, Squidward and Patrick.
Links:
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center
AVGE Fund Review: AVGE ETF Review - Avantis All Equity Markets ETF (optimizedportfolio.com)
ADGV Fund Review: AVGV ETF Review - Avantis All Equity Markets Value ETF (optimizedportfolio.com)
Hydromod Link #1: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs] - Bogleheads.org
Hydromod Link #2: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach - Bogleheads.org
Hydromod LInk #3: Hydromod's Okay Adventure: Leverage, Momentum, and Risk Management - Bogleheads.org
Hydromod Portfolio Visualizer Link: Test Tactical Allocation Models (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 290: Getting Saucy With Justin Of Risk Parity Chronicles, Modern Portfolio Theory And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 15, 2023 Sep 17, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Justin of Risk Parity Chronicles and Chris. We discuss Justin's new blogpost and a new fund that mixes stocks and managed futures, RSST, and follow up on Episode 288 with some useful references from Chris.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. We have a rebalancing of the Levered Golden Ratio portfolio.
Additional links:
Justin's Blog Post: Quick Musings on RSST (riskparitychronicles.com)
Corey Hoffstein's Return Stacked Portfolio: Show Us Your Portfolio: Corey Hoffstein - YouTube
Andrew Beer Interview on Forward Guidance: How Hedge Funds Take Too Much Of Investors' Money (Way Too Much) | Andrew Beer - YouTube
Wikipedia Article about Modern Portfolio Theory: Modern portfolio theory - Wikipedia
MIT Opencourseware for Finance and MPT: Ses 14: Portfolio Theory II - YouTube
Khan Academy Video on Normal Distributions: Introduction to the normal distribution | Probability and Statistics | Khan Academy - YouTube
Normal Distribution Calculator: Normal Distribution Applet/Calculator (uiowa.edu)
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 289: More Lido Shuffling and Monte Carlo Mania, Personal Finance Guru Battles, and Bonds vs. Bond Funds Sep 13, 2023

In this episode we respond to emails from Matt, MyContactInfo, Alexi (a/k/a "Dude") and Sharon. We follow up on Matt's email from Episode 286, talk more about using Portfolio Visualizer and safe and perpetual withdrawal rates, Allan Roth's critique of Wade Pfau's analysis and article and related issues, and individual bonds vs. bond funds.
Links:
Matt's Current Portfolio Monte Carlo Sim: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Similar Allocation Monte Carlo Sim: https://tinyurl.com/2p8twtdp
Golden Butterfly Monte Carlo Sim: https://tinyurl.com/54c9b68x
Modified Golden Ratio Monte Carlo Sim: https://tinyurl.com/4pca2sdh
AQR Paper on Trend Following: A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing (aqr.com)
Retirement & IRA show (Episode EDU #2334): Reexamining The Fun Number, MDF and Secure Income: EDU #2334 - The Retirement and IRA Show
Advisor Perspectives Article #1: Are Fixed Indexed Annuities More Efficient Than Bonds? - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Advisor Perspectives Article #2: Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Wealth of Common Sense Article re Epidemic of Over-saving: You Probably Need Less Money Than You Think For Retirement - A Wealth of Common Sense
Wealth of Common Sense Article re Bonds vs. Bond Funds: Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund - A Wealth of Common Sense
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 288: Truckin' With Kevin In The Easy Chair And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 8, 2023 Sep 10, 2023

In this episode we answer a loooooong email from Kevin. We discuss how to use backtesting and Monte Carlo simulations and how they related to safe and perpetual withdrawal rates, classic and modified Risk Parity-style portfolios, assorted variables and metrics, sizing allocations, Kevin's overall portfolio. And conclude with Monty Python and Kevin singing.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Early Retirement Now Toolbox with Over 100 Years of Data: An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) - Early Retirement Now
Ray Dalio Holy Grail Principle Video: Ray Dalio breaks down his "Holy Grail" - YouTube
Michael Kitces Risk Parity Article: Microsoft Word - Kitces Report November-December 2013 - RISK PARITY - FINAL
Bill Bernstein TIPS Ladder Article: Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Wealth of Common Sense Article re the Epidemic of Over-saving: You Probably Need Less Money Than You Think For Retirement - A Wealth of Common Sense
Walk4McKenna Sign-up Page: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 287: The Big Mo, Emerging Market GDP Follies, And Flying On A Golden Butterfly Sep 07, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Chas, MyContactInfo and JDM. We discuss momentum-based funds and strategies (see also Episodes 218, 231 and 234), the inherent difficulties of trying to use GDP and other macro-economic data to make investing decisions and the basics of implementing a Golden Butterfly portfolio.
Links:
AQR Article -- Fama on Momentum: Fama on Momentum (aqr.com)
Interview of Professor Fama: INVESTORS FROM THE MOON: FAMA (top1000funds.com)
Chas' Asset Correlation Analysis: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
VIOV vs. XSVM vs. DFSVX: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Swedroe Article re GDP and Emerging Markets: Is there a link between GDP growth and emerging market returns? | TEBI (evidenceinvestor.com)

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Episode 286: A 457 Plan, A Leveraged Portfolio And Lido Advisors Walked Into Our Dive Bar Aug 30, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Blake and Matt. We discuss investing in a 457 plan with a self-directed option, Blake's gambling problem -- err, very interesting leveraged portfolio, and how to evaluate RIAs through their SEC filings as applied to Lido.
Links:
Analysis of Total Market vs. 60/20/20 vs. Large cap/small cap value portfolios: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Michael Kitces article re Four Phases of Retirement Planning: The Four Phases Of Saving For Retirement (kitces.com)
Lido Firm Brochure (Part 2A of SEC Form ADV): crd_iapd_Brochure.aspx (sec.gov)
OASDX: OASDX – Oakhurst Strategic Defined Risk Instl Fund Stock Price | Morningstar
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 285: Asset Glamping With Leverage and Treasury Bonds Aug 24, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Chas, Keith and Fritz. We discuss the new Asset Camp tool offered by David Stein, basic issues of leverage (listen also Episodes 258 and 259) and the recent performance of long term treasury bonds.
Links:
Asset Camp: Asset Camp - Asset Camp
Ben Carlson blog post: Everything & Everyone Underperforms Eventually - A Wealth of Common Sense
Rational Reminder video about leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
Optimized Portfolios -- Beating the market with leverage: How To Beat the Market Using Leverage and Index Investing (optimizedportfolio.com)

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Episode 284: Goring Assorted Sacred Cows And Bad Decision-Making Processes, Checking Out Value-Weighting And Portfolio Reviews As Of August 18, 2023 Aug 20, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Jimmy, John and MyContactInfo. We discuss the foibles of trying to make investment decisions based on news, politics or macro-economic events, Joel Greenblatt's investment methodologies re value-weighting from 2010 and where there are today, and learn some more from Professor Aswath Damodaran about why you cannot use market valuation metrics and P/E ratios as a basis for decision-making in investing.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Truflation -- Realtime Inflation Data: Independent, economic & financial data in real time on-chain (truflation.com)
Daniela Di Martino Video re Jay Powell and Truflation: Ted Oakley and DiMartino Booth on Fed policy, employment implications, and debt implications - YouTube
Hugh Hendry and Jim Bianco debating Interest Rates and Inflation: Macro Musings with Jim Bianco (preview) - YouTube
Value-Weighted Indexing Site (circa 2011): Value Weighted Index – A New Approach to Long-Term Investing
Gotham Funds (Greenblatt Managed): Home Page : Gotham (gothamfunds.com)
Portfolio Visualizer Backtest of GVALX: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Professor Damodaran's Latest And Greatest: Musings on Markets: The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor! (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)

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Episode 283: Personality Traits, More Managed Futures And CTA, And Bonus British Economic History Aug 16, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Mark, Wesley and Tom. We make fun of the host and talk about his personality traits and the Big Five personality test, Wesley's portfolio and the new managed futures fund, CTA, and a question about the historical performance about stocks in Great Britain.
Links:
Revisionist History Podcast re Cliff Asness and Disagreeableness: Malcolm Gladwell's 12 Rules for Life | Revisionist History | Malcolm Gladwell - YouTube
Big Five Personality Test: Free open-source BigFive personality traits test - Big Five (bigfive-test.com)
Wesley's Portfolio Backtest: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Meb Faber Podcast with Animal Spirits Guys re Managed Futures for Diversification: Episode #493: Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson - What’s Your Favorite Diversifier? PLUS: Future Proof! - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
CTA ETF page: CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | Simplify
KMLM ETF page: KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF | KMLM (kfafunds.com)
FRED Data re U.K. Stock Market History: How has the U.K. stock market fared lo these past 300 years? | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)

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Episode 282: A Long Letter Of Gratitude, Principles, Assorted Asset Considerations And Portfolio Reviews As Of August 11, 2023 Aug 13, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Kevin, Philip and Brown. We discuss (and thank) our generous listeners, our three principles -- Simplicity, Macro-allocation and Holy Grail -- and why they need to work together, using conservative portfolios for accumulation, investing in international funds in a sensible manner to maximize diversification and international currency risks, investing in utilities funds (listen also Episode 27) and property & casualty insurance companies. Whew!
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Main Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Walk4McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center
Holy Grail Principle Video: Ray Dalio breaks down his "Holy Grail" - YouTube
Portfolio Visualizer Backtest of Utilities vs. REITs vs. P&C Insurance: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 281: Fun With Simulators And Alaskan Golden Butterish Portfolios Aug 09, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Jeff, Micah and Chris. We discuss some data anomalies of Portfolio Visualizer pertaining to REITs, how to interpret and use Monte Carlo simulations, a more aggressive variation of the Golden Butterfly portfolio (similar to the Weird Portfolio) and the recent performance of the Golden Butterfly portfolio itself.
Links:
Portfolio Visualizer REIT Data: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Micah's Alaskan Golden Butterfly Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
The Weird Portfolio: Weird Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Risk-Return Comparison Analyzer of Your Portfolio vs. 19 Others: RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 280: Kitces And Bernstein (And Bears, Oh My!) And Portfolio Reviews As Of August 4, 2023 Aug 05, 2023

In this episode we answer an email from Judy. We discuss a 2013 Michael Kitces article about risk parity, which aspects we have incorporated and which we have not (and why), and then talk about an interview of William Bernstein about his new book and some related thoughts and ramifications about bonds, crystal balls, annuities and other things. (Note: I think I said it was the 4th edition, but its really just the 2d.)
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
2013 Michael Kitces Risk Parity Article: Microsoft Word - Kitces Report November-December 2013 - RISK PARITY - FINAL
Morningstar Long View Interview of William Bernstein: Bill Bernstein: Revisiting The Four Pillars of Investing | Morningstar
Morningstar Long View Interview of Aswath Damodaran: Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert’s Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More | Morningstar
Factor Investing Book: Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing: The Way Smart Money Invests Today by Andrew L Berkin | Goodreads

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Episode 279: Reviewing Pete's Portfolio, Savaging Buffered Funds And Other Malfeasance Aug 02, 2023

In this episode we open up Season Four by answering emails from Pete, Arnold and Igor. We discuss Pete's slightly levered Golden Ratio type portfolio, TJUL and buffered funds generally and a Portfolio Visualizer anomaly. It's Shplendid!
Links:
Optimized Portfolio Article re UPRO and other leveraged ETFs: The 9 Best Leveraged ETFs To Enhance Portfolio Exposure (2023) (optimizedportfolio.com)
EDV and ZROX Comparison: ZROZ vs. EDV ETF Comparison Analysis | etf.com
Perfect Portfolio Book: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest by Andrew W. Lo | Goodreads
Barry Ritholtz Article re TJUL: My New ETF: 100% of Upside + 0% of Downside - The Big Picture (ritholtz.com)

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Episode 278: Closing Out Year Three With Our Annual Rebalancings Jul 26, 2023

In this episode we close out Season Three with a discussion of the annual rebalancings we performed last week on four of the Sample Portfolios -- the All Seasons, the Golden Butterfly, the Golden Ratio and the Risk Parity Ultimate.
It's nitty and its gritty.
Link to Portfolios Page: Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

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Episode 277: Musings With French Physicists About Advanced Modelling And Comparing Small Cap Funds Jul 19, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo and Stanley. We discuss a podcast interview of Professor Jean-Phillipe Bouchaud about methods of analyzing complex systems and financial markets and compare investments in small cap blend and small cap value funds.
Links:
Rick Bookstaber podcast interview of Professor Jean-Phillipe Bouchaud: Seeking Risk: The Fab Rick Show: The Science of Risk (libsyn.com)
The Origin of Wealth book: Amazon.com: The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What it Means for Business and Society: 9781422121030: Beinhocker, Eric D.: Books
Random Matrix Analysis: Random matrix - Wikipedia
Dragon Kings Article: Dragon king theory - Wikipedia
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Small Cap Blend vs. Small Cap Value: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 276: What "They" Don't Want You To Know About The FIRE Movement, A Case Study And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 14, 2023 Jul 16, 2023

In this episode we answer an email from Marcy. We discuss the modern and extended histories of the FIRE movement, FIRE movements and FIRE literature of the past from the 19th Century and beyond, the parallels of modern portfolio mistakes with those of FIRE circa 1990, and do a case study of Marcy's FIRE goals and portfolio using Portfolio Visualizer. (Errata -- I said "21%" for two allocations in the third portfolio when I meant 26%.)
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Local TV News Story on Father McKenna Center: Father McKenna Center seeks men’s clothing donations in DC – NBC4 Washington (nbcwashington.com)
My 2016 Essay about FIRE: Prospecting Mimetic Fractals - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals
Quiet Life video: In Praise of The Quiet Life - YouTube
Ramit Sethi video with the Jensens: “We achieved FIRE with $4.3M. Why can’t we enjoy it?” | IWT 108 | Ramit Sethi - YouTube
Ramit Sethi with the Mad Fientist: Ramit Sethi – How to Spend (and Actually Enjoy It) - YouTube
Mad Fientist Blog Post re Ways to Spend More Money: The Problem with the 4% Rule (and Why You Could Retire Even Sooner) (madfientist.com)
Terhorst's Blog: Welcome to Paul and Vicki Terhorst’s Perpetual Travel Blog – Paul and Vicki Terhorst’s Perpetual Travel Blog (wordpress.com)
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Marcy's Proposed Retirement Portfolio: https://tinyurl.com/bdnmmubh
PV Analysis of RPR Alternative No. 1 (Golden Butterfly): https://tinyurl.com/bd5dtndd
PV Analysis of RPR Alternative No. 2 (Golden Ratio): https://tinyurl.com/9fkjx5b9
Portfolio Charts Calculators: Charts – Portfolio Charts
Recent Interview of Gwen Merz: Navigating Career Transitions: Gwen Merz's Inspiring Journey from Corporate Success to Entrepreneur — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)
Diania Merriam: Diania Merriam: Who the hell am I? - YouTube
Rose Lounsbury Site: Home - Rose Lounsbury

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Episode 275: A Bigger Boat For Long Term Care And Portfolio Construction Musings Jul 13, 2023

In this episode we answer questions from Esek and Jeffrey. We discuss the difficulties of assessing long term care needs and potential approaches and how RP portfolios differ and are similar to other approaches, such as buffered stock funds.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Portfolio Charts Heat Map Calculator: HEAT MAP – Portfolio Charts
Larry Swedroe Discussing His Personal Portfolio Involving 50% Alternative Assets: Show Us Your Portfolio: Larry Swedroe - YouTube

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Episode 274: The Pitfalls of Retirement Calculators and Being Unrealistically Conservative, AI Musings And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 7. 2023 Jul 09, 2023

In this episode we answer questions from Shplendid Spencer, Russel and MyContactInfo. We discuss the pros and cons of online calculators and how they are commonly inadequate and/or misused, why being conservative beyond realistic possibilities is probably not a good idea overall, and an article by Aswath Damodaran about Nvidia, the chip industry and the implications of AI for DIY investing. CORRECTION: I said the Heat Map calculator was at Portfolio Visualizer -- it's actually at Portfolio Charts at the link below.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Spencer's Tool Link: Rich, Broke or Dead? Post-Retirement FIRE Calculator: Visualizing Early Retirement Success and Longevity Risk - Engaging Data (engaging-data.com)
Similar Portfolio Visualizer Analysis Tool: Asset Liability Modeling (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Tyler on Security Analysis Podcast: Tyler (@PortfolioCharts): The Amazing Power of Uncorrelated Assets (securityanalysis.org)
Portfolio Charts Heat Map Tool: HEAT MAP – Portfolio Charts
Article on The Top Five Regrets of the Dying: The Top Five Regrets of the Dying - Wikipedia
List of Cognitive Biases: The Prospecting Lens - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals
Aswath Damodaran Article: Musings on Markets: AI's Winners, Losers and Wannabes: An NVIDIA Valuation, with the AI Boost! (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)

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Episode 273: Celebrating A Milestone With Some Old Friends. Revisiting The Holy Grail Principle And Using Berkshire Hathaway Jul 05, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude"), MyContactInfo and Brown. We discuss passing 500,000 downloads, hi and jinks, the relationship between returns, the projected safe withdrawal rate and the Holy Grail principle, and using Berkshire Hathaway as a basis for portfolio construction.
Links:
Value Stock Geek with Your Truly: The Security Analysis Podcast: Frank Vasquez - Risk Parity Investing for the DIY Investor on Apple Podcasts
The All Weather Strategy Paper: Bridgewater Paper 2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc (granicus.com)

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Episode 272: More On DBMF, A Frolic And Detour Into Rowing, Asset Location Basics And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 30, 2023 Jul 02, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Thurston Howell VI, MyContactInfo and Keith. We discuss DBMF and managed futures funds generally, my family's rapture with the sport of rowing and how to make basic asset location decisions to minimize taxes.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Barry Ritholtz Interview of Andrew Beer (DBMF) (2021): Andrew Beer on the Hedge Fund Industry (Podcast) - Masters in Business - Omny.fm
DBMF Web Page: iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | iMGP Funds
DBMF Current Holdings Link (download): https://partnerselectfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/Holdings/DBMF-Holdings.xlsx
Taxation of Gold -- CNBC Article with links: Gold, silver ETF owners face 28% top tax rate on capital gains (cnbc.com)
Asset Swap Tutorial from Justin/Risk Parity Chronicles: How to Do an Asset Swap - YouTube

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Episode 271: Fun With Funds From ITOT To TSP-F To VCSAX Jun 29, 2023

In this episode we answer questions from Pedro, Graham and Nathan. We discuss creating a Golden Ratio portfolio out of ITOT and other things, what to do about bond fund choices in a TSP and the ins and outs of the VCSAX Consumer Staples Fund.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
TSP F Fund Page: F Fund | The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)
ITOT Analysis: ITOT – Portfolio – iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF | Morningstar
Optimal Finance Daily Podcast: Optimal Finance Daily - Personal Finance Podcast (oldpodcast.com)
Diania Merriam Interview: Video How 1 woman went from having debt to retiring in 5 years - ABC News (go.com)
VCSAX Analysis: VCSAX – Portfolio – Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Admiral | Morningstar
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Consumer Staples Fund vs. 80/20 vs. 50/50: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 270: Ergodicity In Investing And Life, A Listener's Golden Ratio Portfolio, Dividend Truths And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 23, 2023 Jun 25, 2023

In this episode we answer questions from MyContactInfo, Anonymous and Arun. We discuss a podcast and article about the concept of Ergodicity and how to apply it, a variation of the Golden Ratio portfolio from one of our listeners recently discussed in an interview, and the illusory benefits of dividend-paying stocks and related delusions.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
EconTalk Podcast on Ergodicity: Luca Dellanna on Risk, Ruin, and Ergodicity | EconTalk
Taylor Pearson Article on Ergodicity: Ergodicity: A Simple Explanation of Ergodic vs. Non-Ergodic (taylorpearson.me)
Picture Perfect Portfolios Article about a Golden Ratio-style portfolio and others: 100% Factor Focused Equities vs Diversification Reigns Supreme (pictureperfectportfolios.com)
Three Ben Felix Videos About the Irrelevance of Dividends:
The Irrelevance of Dividends - YouTube
The Relevance of Dividend Irrelevance - YouTube
Dividend Growth Investing - YouTube
Intel's 2023 Dividend Cut:
Intel cuts dividend to lowest since 2007 to save cash | Reuters
Intel slashes dividend by over 65%, to 12.5 cents (cnbc.com)

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Episode 269: Fun With Goldmember, Portfolio Transitions And How To Value A Pension Jun 22, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Drew, Barry and Rob. We discuss an article about investing in gold from Larry Swedroe and how to read it and the articles cited therein correctly, transitioning from a 60/40 portfolio to a risk-parity style portfolio and taking distributions and how to evaluate a pension vs. a lump sum. Groovy, Baby!
Links:
Swedroe Article: Misguided Investor Expectations on the Risk and Returns of Gold | Wealth Management
"The Golden Dilemma" Paper: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
"The Golden Rule of Investing" Paper: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Portfolio Visualizer Correlation Analysis of Swedroe suggestions and gold: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
YouTube Interview of Corey Hoffstein about rebalancing timing: Keeping it Simple Ep. 21: Do I Feel Lucky? | Simplify
Immediate Annuities Calculator/Free Quotes: Get Your Best Annuity Quote Instantly Online! Without any sales calls. Your phone# is not required. — ImmediateAnnuities.com

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Episode 268: Jennie We Got Your Number, Alternatives And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 16, 2023 Jun 18, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Jennie, Chris and Visitor 5622. We discuss Jennie's retirement situation, BTAL and long dollar funds, and VTI musings.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Value Stock Geek with Your Truly: The Security Analysis Podcast: Frank Vasquez - Risk Parity Investing for the DIY Investor on Apple Podcasts
Portfolio Visualizer Financial Goals Sequencer: Financial Goals (portfoliovisualizer.com)
BTAL Web Page: AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund | AGF.com
Morningstar Analysis of VTI: VTI – Portfolio – Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Morningstar

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Episode 267: A Free Steak Dinner Mini-Rant, Managed Futures Funds, Emerson And What To Do When You Are Early FI Jun 14, 2023

In this episode we begin with a mini-rant about the THREE free steak dinner invitations we received recently. Then we answer emails from Drew, Lauren and Joe. We go over a number of useful links and information about managed futures from Drew following up on Episode 265, talk about Emerson and Jeopardy, and what to do when you reach Financial Independence early at age 39.
Links:
Charlie Munger Misjudgment Speech: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment - Charlie Munger Full Speech - YouTube
TLDL Shorter Animated Version: Charlie Munger - 24 Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment in 15 minutes - YouTube
Alpha Architect QVAL Fund Page: QVAL - Alpha Architect ETFs
AQR's AQMIX Fund Page: AQR Managed Futures Strategy Fund - AQMIX
Societe Generale CTA Indices Page: Prime Services (Newedge) Indices (societegenerale.com)
Art of Manliness Podcast About Emerson: Podcast #904: How Emerson Can Help You Become a Stoic Nonconformist | The Art of Manliness
Value Stock Geek Security Analysis Website: Security Analysis | Value Stock Geek | Substack
Weird Portfolio Page At Portfolio Charts: Weird Portfolio – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 266: Dude Musings, Fun With Fallacies, Variable Preferred Shares And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 9, 2023 Jun 11, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a/ "the Dude"), Pete and Dean. We discuss box spreads, trying to market-time t-bills and interest rates, a whole host of logical fallacies and cognitive biases and a variable preferred shares fund (VRP) and what it does and doesn't do.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Alpha Architect On Box Spreads: Box Spreads: An Alternative to Treasury Bills? (alphaarchitect.com)
Alpha Architect Paper On Size And Value Tilts: AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdf (alphaarchitect.com)
You Are Not So Smart Fallacy Podcasts (check out ones in the 60s or word search "fallacy"): Podcast – You Are Not So Smart
Sample Gerd Gigerenzer Lecture: Risk literacy: Gerd Gigerenzer at TEDxZurich - YouTube
Risk Savvy book: Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions by Gerd Gigerenzer | Goodreads
Summary of Prospecting Theory and Cognitive Biases: The Prospecting Lens - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals
Dan Ariely Books: Books - Dan Ariely
Freakonomics Episode On Slippery Slopes: Enough with the Slippery Slopes! - Freakonomics

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Episode 265: Short-Term Asset Considerations, Expense-Tracking Methodologies And Managed Futures Funds Debates Jun 08, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from George, Danny, and Jamie. We discuss short-term asset allocations and considerations thereabouts, expense-tracking methodologies (led by Sister Stigmata), and manager-run managed futures funds versus replication-based funds.
Links:
QMHNX Page: AQR Managed Futures Strategy HV Fund - QMHNX
Podcast Debate about Managed Futures Funds: 246 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering – June 3rd, 2023 | Top Traders Unplugged

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Episode 264: Assorted Monte Carlo Simulations, Leveraged Portfolios, Valuation-Related Crystal Balls And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 2, 2023 Jun 04, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Thirsty Horse, Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude") and Mark. We discuss our charity, assorted Monte Carlo simulations on Portfolio Visualizer and data sources, rebalancing of leveraged portfolios and the choice of leverage (follow up on Episode 259), Flight of the Conchords, and the pitfalls of trying to use valuation metrics as crystal balls.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Become a Patron and Support our Charity: Risk Parity Radio | creating A Podcast | Patreon
Monte Carlo Analysis of basic Golden Ratio portfolio back to 1994: https://tinyurl.com/mswkra9c
Monte Carlo Analysis of Golden Ratio portfolio back to the 1970s: https://tinyurl.com/hzd6xftt
Portfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts
Michael Kitces Optimized Rebalancing Articles: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)
Aswath Damodaran on Long View Podcast: Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert’s Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More | Morningstar
Aswath Damodaran/Equity Risk Premium: Damodaran On-line Home Page (nyu.edu)
Errant 2013 Paper re 4% Rule: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2014: Shiller PE: Bad Market Timing, Good Retirement Planning (kitces.com)
Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2016: Reducing Retirement Return Assumptions For High Valuation? (kitces.com)

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Episode 263: A Common Modeling Mistake, Low Beta Funds, And Fun With Finland May 31, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from R.J., Mark and Jaako. We discuss how amateur investors doing projections often double-count inflation accidently and apply inappropriate tax rates, using low-beta funds in portfolio construction, and ETFs designed to combat inflation in Finland and elsewhere.
Note I misspoke and the USMV low-beta portfolio does better than the two created in Mark's backtests.
Links:
Value Stock Geek's Podcast Interview of Tyler from Portfolio Charts: Tyler (@PortfolioCharts): The Amazing Power of Uncorrelated Assets (securityanalysis.org)
Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Rational Reminder Interview of Professor Campbell: Prof. John Y. Campbell: Financial Decisions for Long-term Investors | Rational Reminder 250 - YouTube
Analysis of Low Beta Portfolios: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Mark's Correlation Analysis: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Fund Page for Jaako's Fund: Lyxor EUR 2-10Y Inflation Expectations UCITS ETF - Acc | LYX0U6 | LU1390062245 (justetf.com)

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Episode 262: Lessons From Last Year, Sleeping Better With Conservative Portfolios And Gambling Problems May 25, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Bruce, Raymond and Alexi (a/k/a "Dude"). We discuss what we learned from last year about the performance of various assets in a severely rising interest environment, holding a conservative portfolio in accumulation to sleep better and one of the Dude's gambling experiments involving UDOW and TQQQ.
Links:
Updated UNC Paper re Bonds, Flights to Safety and Stock Market Volatility: SSRN-id1436124.pdf
Portfolio Charts Time to Financial Independence Calculator: FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE – Portfolio Charts
Alexi's UDOW/TQQQ Analysis: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Long Term Analysis of Total Market vs. 50/50 Large Cap Growth/Value: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 261: Capital Gains Taxes, Reducing Personal Inflation With Housing, And The Inherent Mental Accounting Of Bucket Strategies May 17, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Mark, Kasey and Eric. We discuss a Kitces article about managing capital gains tax brackets, some of Mark's favorite episodes -- 208 on ideas for beginning investors and 209 about common safe-withdrawal-rate hysterias, Big ERNs' blog post on personal inflation rates and my response on his site, and the problems of substituting mental accounting about buckets and other things with actual strategies.
Links:
Michael Kitces Article: The Tax Impact Of The Long-Term Capital Gains Bump Zone (kitces.com)
Early Retirement Now Blog Post: Accounting for Homeownership in (Early) Retirement– SWR Series Part 57 – Early Retirement Now
2022 Morningstar Report on Withdrawal Strategies: Six Retirement Withdrawal Strategies that Stretch Savings | Morningstar
Earn & Invest Interview of Christine Benz about the Morningstar Report: Are Safe Withdrawal Debates Ridiculous — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)
Ben Carlson Post on the inherent Mental Accounting of Bucket Strategies: The Mental Accounting of Asset Allocation - A Wealth of Common Sense

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Episode 260: UPAR, De-dollarization Hysteria, And Using Risk Parity Portfolios For Intermediate Term Goals May 10, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Drew, Carlos and Eric. We discuss the UPAR and RPAR risk parity ETFs and their construction, rant a bit about TIPS, discuss attractive narratives about de-dollarization in the context of cognitive biases (the possibility effect and ignoring base rates) and how our adult children use a Golden Ratio-style portfolio to save for intermediate goals.
Links:
Father McKenna Center donation page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
UPAR webpage: UPAR Risk Parity ETF (rparetf.com)
Michael Kitces interview: Michael Kitces: How Higher Yields Affect Asset Allocation and Retirement Planning | The Long View (simplecast.com)
De-dollarization article: De-dollarization Has Begun. | AIER

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Episode 259: FI With Friends, Bid/Ask Spreads, Margin vs. Leveraged ETFs and GDMN May 03, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Eric (x2), Ron and Jeffrey. We discuss the EconoMe Conference, my friendship with Diania Merriam, bid/ask spreads at various brokerages, an exquisite analysis of margin leverage vs. leveraged ETFs and the gold/gold miner fund GDMN.
Links:
EconoMe Conference 2024: EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024
Father McKenna Center Giving Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Ron's Leverage Analysis I: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Ron's Leverage Analysis II: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Article re Margin vs. Leveraged ETFs: Margin Trading vs. Leveraged ETFs | Cumberland Advisors
Corey Hoffstein Interview About Using Leveraged ETFs: How to Improve a 100% Stock Portfolio Using Return Stacking w/ Corey Hoffstein (theinvestorspodcast.com)
GDMN ETF webpage: Global Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy ETF Fund| WisdomTree

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Episode 258: Stable Value Funds, Elder-Age Considerations, Learning About Leverage, And Our Portfolio Reviews As Of April 28, 2023 Apr 29, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Bob (one of the famous Bobs), Mitchell and Davis. We discuss stable value funds vs. intermediate treasury bond funds, thinking about management issues in your 80s (and your parents), and what we have learned about leverage in portfolios since 2020.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Rational Reminder video about leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
Optimized Portfolios -- Beating the market with leverage: How To Beat the Market Using Leverage and Index Investing (optimizedportfolio.com)

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Episode 257: This One Goes To Eleven And Then To Xibalba -- Be Forewarned! Apr 26, 2023

In this short but jammed-packed episode, we goof off with some of our regulars and answer emails from Brian, Alexi (a/k/a the "Dude"), MyContactInfo and Kasip. We address a variety of random musings about some new treasury bond ETFs and Simply ETFs, Flight of the Conchords humor, what AI has to say about Medicare Advantage and Medigap, and what to do as a resident alien about a 401k.
I can't make these emails up! We'll get back to our normal level of absurdity next time.
Links:
New Treasury Bond ETFs: ETFs | Invest in the US Treasury Market | US Benchmark Series (ustreasuryetf.com)
Animal Spirits Podcast re Treasury Bond ETFs: Animal Spirits Podcast: Talk Your Book: How to Buy Treasuries (libsyn.com)
Animal Spirits Podcast re Simplify ETFs: Animal Spirits Podcast: Talk Your Book: Diversify Your Diversifiers (libsyn.com)

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Episode 256: Exploring The Transcendentalists, Basic Portfolio Comparisons, Bill Bernstein's Bond Ladder And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 21, 2023 Apr 22, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Lauren, Paul and MyContactInfo. We discuss Emerson and Thoreau and how we apply their teachings, comparing risk parity style portfolios with others using Portfolio Charts, and an article about Bill Bernstein's new bond ladder and how it fits in.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Self Reliance by Emerson: Self Reliance by Ralph Waldo Emerson (Full Text) (thefreshreads.com)
A Guide to Self Reliance: Self-Reliance: Change Your Life For The Better - Ralph Waldo Emerson (emersoncentral.com)
Parable of the Ham: The Parable of the Ham – Results Typical
Golden Butterfly Portfolio Particulars: Golden Butterfly – Portfolio Charts
60/40 Portfolio Particulars: Classic 60-40 – Portfolio Charts
Three-Fund Portfolio Particulars: Three-Fund Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Risk-Reward Comparisons of Common Portfolios: RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts
2022 Comparisons of Common Portfolios: Learning the Hard Way: 2022 Portfolio Rankings – Portfolio Charts
Bill Bernstein Article about his new Bond Ladder: Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives

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Episode 255: Some 401k/IRA Basics, Reading Articles With Critical Thinking, And More On Leveraged Funds Apr 20, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Javier, Adam, and Jeff. We discuss what to do with limited 401k options and the Macro Allocation Principle, revisit an academic article we discussed in Episode 251 with some additional critical thinking skills, and talk some about Corey Hoffstein's return stacking, developments in leveraged fund and the Pimco StocksPlus family.
Links:
Rational Reminder Video re Using Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
RSBT Fund Page: Bonds Managed Futures - Return Stacked ETF (returnstackedetfs.com)
Lots of Articles About Leveraged ETFs: Leverage | Optimized Portfolio
Morningstar Analysis of Pimco StocksPlus: PSTKX – PIMCO StocksPLUS® Instl Fund Stock Price | Morningstar

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Episode 254: A Volatility ETF, Treasury Bonds and Brazil! And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 14, 2023 Apr 16, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Javier, Heath and Joao. We discuss Simplify's short VIX ETF, "SVOL", and the difficulties of investing in volatility, the anomalous circumstances of 2022 and how it affected treasury bonds, and a bit about taxation in Brazil (about which I really know nothing).
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional link:
Simplify's SVOL ETF: SVOL Simplify Volatility Premium ETF | Simplify

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Episode 253: A Taxonomy of Withdrawal Strategies And Analyses Of Their Components Apr 12, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo and Chris. We follow up on Episode 251 with a taxonomy of five withdrawal strategies described in an article from the CFA institute and discuss a "not really a withdrawal strategy" that is classified as a form of mental accounting and does not impact safe withdrawal rates (at least not in a positive manner). We talk about how to classify annuities, bond ladders and portfolio-based withdrawal strategies. And we thank Chris and our other charitable donors for their support.
Links:
CFA Institute Article: Retirement Income: Six Strategies | CFA Institute Enterprising Investor
Money with Katie interview of Bill Bengen: Does Early Retirement Still Work With 2023 Inflation? Featuring Bill Bengen | The Money with Katie Show
Allan Roth Article About His Bond Ladder: The 4% Rule Just Became a Whole Lot Easier - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Allan Roth Article Complaining About Morningstar Projections: Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 252: Factor Funds, Portfolio Construction Principles, Rebalancing Research And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 7, 2023 Apr 09, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Andreas and Brad. We discuss algorithmic factor funds like AVUV vs. basic index factor funds, basic principles of portfolio construction, low volatility funds, and the rebalancing research of Corey Hoffstein.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Giving Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Simplify Interview of Corey Hoffstein about rebalancing: Keeping it Simple Ep. 21: Do I Feel Lucky? | Simplify
Corey Hoffstein Interview and Papers: Rebalance Timing Luck - Newfound Research (thinknewfound.com)
Corey Hoffstein Interview Regarding Personal Portfolio: Show Us Your Portfolio: Corey Hoffstein - YouTube
Corey Hoffstein Discussing the Return Stacking Strategy: Corey Hoffstein on Return Stacking - YouTube
Optimized Rebalancing Article: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)

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Episode 251: Separating Withdrawal Strategy Dogs & Tails, Yet More Leveraged Fund Fun And Poking At Some Portfolio Pessimists Apr 06, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Pete, MyContactInfo and Jenzo. We discuss leveraged funds, a paper about holding them longer term and optimal leverage, analyzing leveraged portfolios, meta-concepts of retirement portfolio planning and how to separate the critical components of a withdrawal strategy (the dogs) from various management techniques, labeling methods and mental accounting (the tails), and last year's scare paper about hyper-low safe withdrawal rates of poorly constructed international portfolios.
Links:
Leveraged Portfolios Article/Paper: Double-Digit Numerics - Articles - The Big Myth about Leveraged ETFs (ddnum.com)
Sample Optimized Portfolios Article: What Is a Leveraged ETF and How Do They Work? (optimizedportfolio.com)
Analysis of UPRO vs S&P: https://tinyurl.com/me4c2xj9
Analysis of TNA vs. IWM: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Analysis of TMF vs. TLT: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Charts Risk/Reward Calculator: RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Visualizer Efficient Frontier Tool: Efficient Frontier (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Bond Funds vs. Bond Ladders: Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund - A Wealth of Common Sense
Low Safe Withdrawal Rate Paper: delivery.php (ssrn.com)

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Episode 250: Gold Standards, Leveraged Funds, Short Sellers, Plutonian Nyborg And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 31, 2023 Apr 02, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Carmello, Trevor, Timothy and Andreas. We discuss some of the history of the gold standard and inflation, leveraged funds, portfolio reviews, short sellers and Fidelity's recent forays into risk parity.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Cross of Gold Speech Article: Cross of Gold speech - Wikipedia
Optimized Portfolios Site on Leveraged Funds: Leverage | Optimized Portfolio
Rational Reminder Video on Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
Fidelity's New Risk Parity Fund: Fidelity Risk Parity Fund (FAPSX) | Fidelity Institutional
Fidelity's Presentation on its Risk Parity Fund: Fidelity Liquid Alternative Funds Presentation | Fidelity Institutional

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Episode 249: Municipal Bonds, Preferred Shares, Planning Calculators and Newman! Mar 29, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Wesley, Mark and a different Mark. And an errant comment from his Dude-ness, Alexi. We discuss how municipal bond funds might be used in risk-parity style portfolios and how not, a couple of interesting newer financial planning calculators and the planning process I actually use instead to account for liquidity issues, asset allocations in accumulation when options are limited and the ins and outs of preferred shares funds like PFF. And then we goof off. Again.
Links:
Correlation Matrix with Municipal Bond Fund: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
ETF Research Center Financial Tool: ETF Research Center (etfrc.com)
Projection Labs Financial Tool: ProjectionLab - Simulate your financial future and plan for financial independence.

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Episode 248: Crazy Rising Rate Funds, Levered Constructions, Correlation Data Anomalies And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 24, 2023 Mar 26, 2023

In this episode we answer two emails from Alexi (a/k/a the "Dude") and another from Barry. We discuss funds that are designed to take advantage of rising interest rates like RRH, RISR and PFIX, another Dude-constructed accumulation portfolio with leveraged funds and some portfolio construction rules of thumb, and the noisy-ness of correlation data and matrices.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
PFIX Webpage and Resources: PFIX Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF | Simplify
The Dude's New Portfolio Constructions compared with S&P500: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Visualizer Correlation Tool: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Bogleheads Post about Morningstar Correlation Data: Morningstar Correlation Matrix - Bogleheads.org

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Episode 247: Back In The Saddle With Some Wide-Ranging Emails, Chihuahuas And My Wild Years Mar 22, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Clint, Jeff and Penny. We discuss brokerage firms and solvency issues, estimating expenses for long retirements and basic tax considerations in portfolio management.
Links:
Rob Berger Video About Brokerages and Solvency: What Happens to Our Investments if Schwab, Fidelity or Vanguard Collapse? - YouTube
Morningstar 2022 Retirement Report Download Page: 2022 Retirement Withdrawal Strategies Report | Morningstar
Portfolio Charts Article with Tax Loss Harvesting Pairs: Harvesting the Fall: Why I Sold All My Bonds – Portfolio Charts
Go Curry Cracker Article Re Tax Savings: Never Pay Taxes Again - Go Curry Cracker!

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Episode 246: Risk Parity ETFs, Leverage, Alternatives, Podcasts and Ohio! Mar 16, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Kevin, Graham and Boone. We discuss the risk parity ETFs, RPAR and UPAR, leveraged portfolios, alternative assets, ETFs and some of the podcasts I'm listening to these days.
Links:
RPAR webpage: RPAR Risk Parity ETF (rparetf.com)
Risk Parity Book Review: Top 10 Risk Parity Resources: #10... Shahidi (2021) (riskparitychronicles.com)
CFA Institute Manual Article: chapter-4-from-managing-multiasset-strategies-2018.pdf (callan.com)
Rational Reminder Video about Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
Sound Investing Podcast: Sound Investing on Apple Podcasts
Money With Katie Podcast: The Money with Katie Show
Money With Katie Portfolio Analysis Blogpost: How to Diversify Outside of the Total Stock Market — Millennial Money with Katie
Ramit Sethi Podcast: Podcast - I Will Teach You To Be Rich
Macro Trading Floor Podcast: The Macro Trading Floor on Apple Podcasts
Eurodollar University Podcast: General 2 — Eurodollar University
Gestalt University Podcast: Resolve's Gestalt University on Apple Podcasts
Alpha Exchange Podcast: Alpha Exchange on Apple Podcasts
Excess Returns YouTube Channel (Corey Hoffstein Episode): Show Us Your Portfolio: Corey Hoffstein - YouTube
Retirement Planning Education YouTube Channel: Retirement Planning Education - YouTube

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Episode 245: Gold And Bonds And Sonia, Oh My! And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 3, 2023 Mar 04, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Anonymous, Jeffrey and Anderson. We discuss locations for putting gold in various accounts, rant about the physical gold racket, discuss theoretical and practical risk parity portfolios, and talk about short and long term treasuries.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Justin's Video Re Asset Swaps: How to Do an Asset Swap - YouTube
Justin's Video Re The Portfolio Visualizer Fund Factor Tool: How to Use the Fund Factor Regression Tool on Portfolio Visualizer - YouTube
Risk Parity Chronicles YouTube Channel: Risk Parity Chronicles - YouTube
CFA Institute Manual -- Risk Parity Chapter: chapter-4-from-managing-multiasset-strategies-2018.pdf (callan.com)
Early Retirement Now Article about Gold: Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now
Sonia's Crystal Ball Video: Crystal ball gazing, how to use a Crystal Ball ~ How to Scry with a Crystal Ball ~ by Sonia Parker - YouTube
EconoMe Conference: Our Speakers - EconoMe (economeconference.com)

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Episode 244: Fun With New Managed Futures Funds, TIPS Misconceptions And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 24, 2023 Feb 26, 2023

In this episode we answer a series of emails from Drew and one from Ms. Annie Mouse. We discuss the fund BLNDX, managed futures and how to analyze new and composite funds and then rant about TIPs misconceptions and uses for your delight and amusement.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Podcast re BLNDX: Creating The Optimal Diversified Portfolio | Eric Crittenden | Episode 64 - The Market Call Show | Podcast on Spotify
Analysis of BLNDX vs. a 50/50 stock/managed futures portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Analysis of 50/50 stock/managed futures portfolio vs. Golden Ratio-style portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
LTPZ vs. TLT analysis: https://tinyurl.com/2fgsgn8o
EconoMe: Our Speakers - EconoMe (economeconference.com)

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Episode 243: Dirty Harry's Managed Futures Portfolios, An Asset Replacement Experiment And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 17, 2023 Feb 19, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Johnny, Kevin and Daniel. We discussed managed futures vs. commodity funds, the Mt. Lucas "Dirty Portfolios" with KMLM and how to transition from one asset to another in a portfolio with the beginning of a new pedagogical experiment in that.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Dirty Portfolios Article with Dirty Harry Quotes: Dirty Portfolios - Managed Futures As A Portfolio Element (mtlucas.com)
Side-by-Side Analysis Of Original and Planned Golden Ratio Portfolios: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Side-by-Side Analysis of Original and Planned Levered Golden Ratio Portfolios: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
EconoMe Conference: Programming & Activities - EconoMe (economeconference.com)

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Episode 242: Lemmy Joins Some Of The Regulars For Q&A And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 10, 2023 Feb 12, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude"), the effervescent MyContactInfo, and Mike. We discuss a Portfolio Visualizer fund selection tool for factor investing, Merton and other academics, and an uncannily familiar diversified portfolio recently featured in a Marketwatch article. And we play some Motorhead and rant about financial media a bit.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Portfolio Visualizer Fund Factor Attribution Tool: Mutual Fund and ETF Factor Performance Attribution (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Rational Reminder Interview of Robert C. Merton: Episode 234: Prof. Robert C. Merton: ICAPM, Retirement, and Models in Finance — Rational Reminder
MarketWatch Article: This 'crazy' retirement portfolio has just beaten Wall Street for 50 years - MarketWatch
Easy Improvements to Marketwatch-featured portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
EconoMe Conference: Programming & Activities - EconoMe (economeconference.com)

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Episode 241: Entertaining The Masses With Asset Selection Tricks And Techniques Feb 09, 2023

In this episode we answer two looooong emails from Mark and Andreas. We discuss Mark's quandaries with a 457 plan and Andreas's Risk Parity fever brought on by topics that include how to choose ETFs for each asset class, leverage in bond funds, TIPS, a proposed portfolio, other alternatives like long-short, market neutral and options strategies and musings about taxes and currency exposures. And then we conclude with Polo Hofer.
Links:
Father McKenna Center donation page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Risk Parity Chronicles video tutorial on asset swapping: How to Do an Asset Swap - YouTube
Risk Parity Chronicles series on TIPS: Eight Observations About TIPS (riskparitychronicles.com)
ETF Database: ETF Database: The Original & Comprehensive Guide to ETFs (etfdb.com)
Bloomberg Presentation on Asset Classes in Inflationary Environments: MH201-SteveHou-Bloomberg.pdf (markethuddle.com)
Vanguard Commodities Paper: Commodity investing and its role in a portfolio (vanguard.com)
Antti Ilmanen books: Books by Antti Ilmanen (Author of Expected Returns) (goodreads.com)
EconoMe Conference: EconoMe Conference - March 17th-19th, 2023

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Episode 240: Dirty Harry Kicks Over A Dignity Bucket And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 3, 2023 Feb 05, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Esek and Erin. We discuss 529 plans, what is "enough" in terms of this podcast, and THEN the meta approaches to retirement planning and the importance of distinguishing portfolio construction and allocation strategies from portfolio management techniques, including a tour on the Good Ship Lollipop with the Outlaw Josey Wales. Errata: I said "Bernstein assumptions" when I meant "Bengen assumptions."
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
EconoMe Conference link: Programming & Activities - EconoMe (economeconference.com)

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Episode 239: A Potpourri Of Esoteric Eccentricities On Groundhog Day! Feb 02, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Gareth, Mark and Alex. We talk about the meta-differences in investing in various countries, utilities, long dollar funds like UUP, specialized commodities mutual funds like LCSIX and a couple new leveraged funds with mixed asset classes.
Links:
LCSIX Fact Sheet: LoCorr-Funds-Long-Short-Commodities_fact_sheet.pdf (locorrfunds.com)
Alex's SEC Link To Return Stacked Funds Prospectuses: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1924868/000138713122011734/newfound-485apos_112322.htm
Resolve Asset Management Return Stacking White Paper: Return Stacking: Strategies For Overcoming a Low Return Environment (investresolve.com)
Resolve Asset Management YouTube Channel (Video on Risk Parity): Risk Parity Is the Answer: What Was the Question? (EP.18) - YouTube
EconoMe Conference: Programming & Activities - EconoMe (economeconference.com)

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Episode 238: CAPE Crusading, NEWMAN! And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 27, 2023 Jan 29, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Justin and Arun. We discuss the last decade of history of the failed use of CAPE ratios as a crystal ball and the general problems with those approaches, and the inherent limitations and problems with using the personal finance recommendations of theoretical economists.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
CAPE Ratios Article: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong | Research Affiliates
Michael Kitces CAPE Article (2016): Reducing Retirement Return Assumptions For High Valuation? (kitces.com)
Kitces Critique of November 2021 Morningstar Forecasts Report: Can Morningstar's Withdrawal Rate Report Refute The 4% Rule? (kitces.com)
Sector P/E Ratios Article: Sector Valuation: Shiller PE By Sectors - GuruFocus.com
Industry P/E Ratios Article: Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratios by Industry | Eqvista
2022 Morningstar Report: 2022 Retirement Withdrawal Strategies Report | Morningstar
Afford Anything Kotlikoff Interview: #329: Challenging Your Confirmation Bias, with Economist Larry Kotlikoff - Afford Anything
Planet Money Economist Interview: Yale Economist James Choi Analyzes Popular Financial Advice : Planet Money : NPR
Complex Adaptive Systems and the Math that Applies To Them: The Fractal Lens - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals
More Than You Know Book: More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places by Michael J. Mauboussin | Goodreads

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Episode 237: Dropping A Bomb On You With A Ten-Question Analysis Of Inflation-Hedger RRH Jan 25, 2023

In this episode we take the Dude's suggestion and do a detailed analysis of the Advocate Rising Rate Hedge ETF, ticker symbol RRH.
To conduct our analysis of RRH, we use SPLB, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Links:
RRH Website: Advocate Rising Rate Hedge ETF (rrhetf.com)
RRH Fact Sheet: Microsoft PowerPoint - Advocate RRH Fund Fact Sheet Jan 2023 v01 (rrhetf.com)
RRH Summary Prospectus: advocate_rrh_summary.pdf (rrhetf.com)
Podcast about RRH: Scott Peng, PhD, Founder and CEO/CIO, Advocate Capital Management - Alpha Exchange | Podcast on Spotify
Asset Correlation Analysis of RRH: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles TIPs Blog Series (Summary and Conclusions): Eight Observations About TIPS (riskparitychronicles.com)
EconoMe Conference: Programming & Activities - EconoMe (economeconference.com)

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Episode 236: All About Assets In Inflationary Environments (And Other Tales) And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 20, 2023 Jan 22, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (Dude!) and Spencer. We discuss a recent Bloomberg presentation about what asset classes perform best and worst in inflationary environment, how that informs portfolio construction and why we don't bother with meaningless fund characteristics like mid-caps and dividend-payers for portfolio construction.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Steve Hou/Bloomberg Presentation: MH201-SteveHou-Bloomberg.pdf (markethuddle.com)
Market Huddle Video with Steve Hou: To Survive Disasters, You Need Smiles (guest: Steve Hou) - Market Huddle Ep.201 - YouTube
Article about the "Factor Zoo": Taming the Factor Zoo (aqr.com)
EconoMe Conference: EconoMe Conference - March 17th-19th, 2023

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Episode 235: Our Listeners Have All Kinds of Gambling Problems Jan 18, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Arun, Blake and MyContactInfo. We discuss helping a spouse getting started with investing, what to do with an options strategy portfolio, why index funds still rule over managed funds, good and bad processes for picking funds and various gambling problems.
Links:
Simple Portfolios for Arun's Spouse: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Article re Index Funds Beating Managed Funds: Actively Managed Mutual Funds Consistently Fail to Beat Markets, Study Finds - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
EconoMe Conference: EconoMe Conference - March 17th-19th, 2023

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Episode 234: Rollin' With Momentum, Mid-Caps, BDCs And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 13, 2022 Jan 15, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (Dude!), Yangon and Brett. We discuss the momentum factor (again), mid-cap funds and other fund characteristics that are lacking in meaning for the purposes of diversification, financial advisor certifications and investing in BDCs (Business Development Companies).
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
EconoMe Conference: EconoMe Conference - March 17th-19th, 2023
DFA Article About Momentum Strategy Funds: Have Investors Benefited from Momentum Strategies? | Dimensional
Momentum Funds Correlation Matrix: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Series 65 Licenses Article: Series 65 Definition (investopedia.com)
Series 7 Licences Article: Series 7: Definition and Formula for Calculation, With Example (investopedia.com)
Brett's BDC Article: Credit Is Good: BDC Credit May Be Even Better | Seeking Alpha

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Episode 233: It's Gold Jerry! And Other Excessive Hijinks . . . Jan 12, 2023

In this episode we answer a trio of emails from MyContactInfo and a piece de resistance from Eric. We discuss why complicated financial products are bad for you, Peter Bernstein's books and what Paul Volcker had to say about gold, and spurious histories of money. And we celebrate our inanity and insanity with Eric.
Links:
Power of Gold book: The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession: Bernstein, Peter L., Volcker, Paul A.: 9781118270103: Amazon.com: Books
Link to Campbell Harvey article: Gold, the Golden Constant, and Déjà Vu (cfainstitute.org)
Peter Zeihan video about monetary systems: Global Currency: The Dollar Ain't Going Nowhere - YouTube

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Episode 232: Bond Fund Considerations, Transitions To Retirement, A New Tool And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 6, 2023 Jan 08, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from Trey, Nita, Christy and Keith. We discuss considerations in bond fund selections (see also Episodes 14 and 16) and the specific fund IEI, timing for transitioning to your retirement portfolio, classifying the Sample Portfolios by intended purposes, and a new tool for analyzing portfolios with managed futures.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional link:
Keith's Link to the new tool: Portfolio Builder - Dunn Capital

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Episode 231: Value, Growth And Momentum Factors And What To Do About The Children Jan 05, 2023

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Cy, Alexi (Dude!) and Chris. We discuss value vs. growth factors, assisting children with investing and inheritances, momentum factor investing and the fund QMOM, and the best audience available.
Links:
QMOM and MTUM asset correlations: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
QMOM Performance: QMOM – Alpha Architect US Quantitative Momt ETF – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar
MTUM Performance: MTUM – iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar
Bloomberg Presentation on Asset Classes in Inflationary Environments: MTUM – iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar

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Episode 230: Annual Portfolio Reviews For The Most Hideous Year Of 2022 Jan 01, 2023

In this episode we do an annual review of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. We compare them with standard funds including VBIAX (60/40), VWENX, VWIAX, risk parity funds including RPAR and UPAR, and ultra-diversified funds including AQRIX and QDSIX. And we conclude with some take-away thoughts from this disaster of a year as predicted by Quasimodo.
Additional links:
Risk Parity Chronicles Resource Page: Resources - Risk Parity Chronicles
RPAR and UPAR Descriptions: RPAR Risk Parity ETF (rparetf.com)
AQRIX Fund Page: AQR Multi-Asset Fund - AQRIX
QDSIX Fund Page: AQR Diversifying Strategies Fund - QDSIX

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Episode 229: Family Frolics, The Infernal JEPI And Legacy Investing Dec 28, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Mark and Eric. We discuss rowing machines, the infernal JEPI and other heavily marketed financial products, and what to do as a DIY investor for legacy investing. Happy Holidays!

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Episode 228: Talladega Nights Christmas Dinner, Composite Fund Considerations, Intermediate Treasury Bonds, And Portfolio Reviews As Of December 23, 2022 Dec 25, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Drew, Sad Fientist and Popeye. We discuss managed futures and the fund BLNDX, intermediate treasury bonds and general bond considerations and record keeping for the sample portfolios. And throw in some Talladega Nights gold fleece diaper-dom along the way.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
BLNDX Information Pages: Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund - Documents (filepoint.com)
Portfolio Charts Article Re Tax-Loss Harvesting TLT: Harvesting the Fall: Why I Sold All My Bonds – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 227: Traditional vs. Roth, Fundamental Risk Parity Principles and Correlations, and Talkin' About that Cowbell! Dec 22, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Bradley, Chris and Andreas. We discuss traditional versus Roth considerations in retirement accounts, REITs, some risk parity fundamentals about the interplay between asset classes and macroeconomic environments and how that relates to correlations, a recent risk parity backtest to 1926 and the real reasons to use small cap value allocations. I'm telling you, fellas, you're gonna want that Cowbell!
Links:
REIT Sectors and Directory: REIT Sectors | Nareit
Episode 5 Bridgewater Article on Risk Parity Fundamentals: Microsoft Word - 2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc (granicus.com)
Early Retirement Now Article re Small Cap Value: My thoughts on Small-Cap and Value Stocks – Early Retirement Now
Analysis of Small-Cap Value vs. Total Market since 1972: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Bloomberg Presentation re Performance of Various Asset Classes in Inflationary Environments: MH201-SteveHou-Bloomberg.pdf (markethuddle.com)
Merriman Podcast (12/21/2022) on Small Cap Value Stocks: 10 reasons small-cap value can make you richer - Paul Merriman

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Episode 226: Tilting At The Dude's Dragons, Market/Limit Orders, DIY Investing Since 2011 And Portfolio Reviews As Of December 16, 2022 Dec 18, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude"), Matt and Daniel. We talk about Alexi's Dragon-style portfolio experiments (and provide links), market orders vs. limit orders and miscellaneous trading advice, and the evolution of DIY investing with ETFs and other funds since 2011.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Alexi's Dragon-style portfolios: Alexi's Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Alexi's Dragon-style portfolios with longer data-set funds: Alexi's Portfolio Asset Allocation (Proxy Funds) (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 225: Rebalancing Basics, Cowbell in the U.K. And Poking At The New Deathstar Dec 14, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Charlie, Jimi and Freya. We provide explanations of the concepts of rebalancing and reallocation, talk about a listener's favorite sound clip and about creating a simple starter portfolio for a very small U.K. investor. And we take a poke at the new Morningstar report on retirement forecasting and projected safe withdrawal rates, and the vast changes they made from last year.
Links:
New Morningstar Report: 2022 Retirement Withdrawal Strategies Report | Morningstar
Michael Kitces Optimal Rebalancing Article: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)
Ernest P. Worrell: Ernest P. Worrell - Wikipedia
Jim Varney: Jim Varney - Wikipedia
"Hey Vern It's Earnest" Clip: Hey Vern It's Ernest.m4v - YouTube
Paul Merriman "Sound Investing" Podcast on Portfolio for Grandchild: How to Create a Financial Legacy for a Child - Sound Investing | Podcast on Spotify
Portfolio Charts "My Portfolio" Analyzer: MY PORTFOLIO – Portfolio Charts
ISVL Fund Page: iShares International Developed Small Cap Value Factor ETF | ISVL

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Episode 224: Correlation and Monetary Musings, The Physical Metals Racket and Portfolio Reviews As Of December 9, 2022 Dec 11, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Brian, Alexi (the Dude!) and Geordi. We discuss how central bank activities may affect asset correlations, applying the history of money to today's crypto currency-related issues, investing in volatility, another podcast about DBMF, and the follies and foibles of the physical precious metals racket and the participants therein, especially the newsletter and book-touting Hedgehogs.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Bloomberg Presentation re Asset Performances in Inflationary Environments: MH201-SteveHou-Bloomberg.pdf (markethuddle.com)
YouTube video explaining Bloomberg presentation: To Survive Disasters, You Need Smiles (guest: Steve Hou) - Market Huddle Ep.201 - YouTube
Interview of Andrew Beer about DBMF (managed futures): 214 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer – October 16th, 2022 | Top Traders Unplugged

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Episode 223: A Celebrity Deathmatch About CAPE Ratios And Related Topics Dec 07, 2022

In this episode we answer an email from Daniel, who asks a follow-up question to episode 209 about CAPE ratios and Big ERN's blog. We then recount a Zoom chat and email exchanges between the host and Karsten Jeske about that topic and related ones and an analysis of a sample risk-parity style portfolio using the Early Retirement Now SWR Toolbox. It's similar to "Celebrity Deathmatch" in entertainment value.
We also talk briefly about Risk Parity Chronicles, The upcoming EconoMe Conference with Diania Merriam and the upcoming event at the Father McKenna Center.
Links ("the best links, the best"):
Father McKenna Center Lessons and Carols Event Link: Lessons and Carols - Father McKenna Center
Risk Parity Chronicles: Risk Parity Chronicles
EconoMe Conference: EconoMe Conference - March 17th-19th, 2023
Early Retirement Now SWR Toolbox: An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) – Early Retirement Now
Safe Withdrawal Series Part 34: Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now
Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2014: Shiller PE: Bad Market Timing, Good Retirement Planning (kitces.com)
Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2016: Reducing Retirement Return Assumptions For High Valuation? (kitces.com)
Kitces Critique of November 2021 Morningstar Forecasts Report: Can Morningstar's Withdrawal Rate Report Refute The 4% Rule? (kitces.com)
Morningstar 2011 Article About Predicting the Next Decade (classic misuse of P/E ratios): Your Forecasts for Stock and Bond Returns | Morningstar
Early Retirement Now Small-Cap and Value Blogpost: My thoughts on Small-Cap and Value Stocks – Early Retirement Now
Early Retirement Now Options Strategy Blogpost: Passive income through option writing: Part 8 – A 2021 Update – Early Retirement Now
The Market Huddle Podcast re Bloomberg Analysis: To Survive Disasters, You Need Smiles (guest: Steve Hou) - Market Huddle Ep.201 - YouTube
Bloomberg Presentation: MH201-SteveHou-Bloomberg.pdf (markethuddle.com)

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Episode 222: Holy Volatility Allocations, Charitable Event Promotion And Portfolio Reviews As Of December 2, 2022 Dec 04, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Jamie, Chris and The Dude (Alexi). We give do some listener appreciation and talk about The Dude's proposed volatility-related allocation.
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
And we also invite you to an event at the Father McKenna Center in Washington, DC -- Lessons and Carols on December 8 at 7 pm.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Lessons and Carols: Lessons and Carols - Father McKenna Center
Jamie's Article re Luck and Success: Winning a Nobel Prize Takes Luck as Much as Talent - WSJ
The Dude's Proposed Volatility Allocation: 7% CCOR, 5% YCS, 5% EUO and 3% VIXM (20% overall allocation).
CCOR fund page: CCOR ETF | Core Alt Capital (corealtfunds.com)
Correlation Matrix with Alexi's Funds and BTAL: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Backtest using Alexi's volatility allocations: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 221: All Roads Lead To More Cowbell -- Shplendid! Nov 30, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Gregory, MyContactInfo, Ralphio and Spencer. We discuss the overriding currency speculation aspect of investing in non-U.S. funds, keeping things simple during accumulation, leveraged funds, some academic analyses of managed funds and what to make of it, how to identify the basic factors of given funds and the Shplendid aspects of MORE COWBELL.
Links:
Paul Merriman's "Best in Class" Fund Identification Page: Best-in-Class ETF Portfolios - Paul Merriman
Rational Reminder Leveraged Portfolios Video: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
Rational Reminder Interview of Professors Berk and Binsbergen: Episode 220: Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen: The Arithmetic of Active Management, Revisited — Rational Reminder
Berk and Binsbergen 2014 Paper re Active Management: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Rational Reminder Interview of Eduardo Repetto of Avantis: Episode 228: Eduardo Repetto: Deep Dive with Avantis Investors' CIO — Rational Reminder
Rick Ferri Interview of Eduardo Repetto of Avantis: Episode 43: Bogleheads on Investing – guest Eduardo Repetto, host Rick Ferri – Rick Ferri, CFA
Morningstar Analysis of IJR: IJR – Portfolio – iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | Morningstar

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Episode 220: The Follies And Foibles Of Managed Funds And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 25, 2022 Nov 27, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Nick, Mr. Harris and Howard. We discuss the hoary details of the tax reporting of GLDM, following your rebalancing rules and why relying on the past performance of managed mutual funds probably is not a good idea.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. With rebalancing this week!
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Giving Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Optimal Rebalancing Article: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)
SPIVA Report for 2021: SPIVA U.S. Year-End 2021 Scorecard (spglobal.com)
Morningstar Analyzer -- PRWCX: PRWCX – Portfolio – T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation | Morningstar
Portfolio Visualizer Comparison Analyses of PRWCX: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 219: The Ins And Outs Of Buffered Funds, Gold and Bond Ladders Nov 23, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Uday, Rick, Anderson and Jacques. We discuss Giving Tuesday and the Father McKenna Center, new tutorials at Risk Parity Chronicles about asset swaps and wash sales, buffered ETFs and scandalous structured products, why we still love gold (a little), getting exposure to small cap value -- yada, yada, yada -- and bond ladders vs. bond funds.
Links:
Father McKenna Center Homepage: Home - Father McKenna Center
Father McKenna Center Giving Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Risk Parity Chronicles Asset Swap Post And Tutorials: Risk Parity Basics: Asset Swaps and the Important Wash Sale Rule (riskparitychronicles.com)
Analysis of Buffered Fund BSEP: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Charts "Ingredients" Article: Three Secret Ingredients of the Most Efficient Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Morningstar Analyzer: VEXMX – Portfolio – Vanguard Extended Market Index Investor | Morningstar
Ben Carlson Article: Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund (awealthofcommonsense.com)
Finance Buff Article: Two Types of Bond Ladders: When to Replace a Bond Fund or ETF (thefinancebuff.com)

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Episode 218: Risk Parity Accumulations, Hedgehogs and Foxes, The Pleasuredome And Our Portfolio Reviews As Of November 18, 2022 Nov 20, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Ethan, Eric, MyContactInfo and Jon. We discuss using the Golden Ratio portfolio for intermediate accumulations, Hedgehogs and Foxes in economic forecasting, total bond funds, momentum factor investing and Frankie Goes To Hollywood.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. With rebalancing this week!
Additional links:
Wealthtrack Interview of Jim Grant: INFLATION’S DAMAGE: FINANCIAL CONSEQUENCES & INVESTMENT STRATEGIES WITH HISTORIAN JAMES GRANT : WealthTrack
Flirting With Models Podcast with Andrew Beer (DBMF): Flirting with Models: Andrew Beer - Replicating Hedge Fund Beta (S5E9) (libsyn.com)
Bogleheads Forum Link on Total Bond Funds: Bogle said 75% Total Bond and 25% Investment Grade Corp. Bond? - Bogleheads.org
Fama on Momentum Article (I found it!): Fama on Momentum (aqr.com)

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Episode 217: Tax Loss Harvesting, Golden Ratio Mania, The Asset Swapping Technique, Portfolio Finding And Todd Nov 09, 2022

In this episode we answer questions from Brad, Craig, AnnieMous, and Jack. We discuss new information from Portfolio Charts about tax-loss harvesting bond funds like TLT (and other funds), portfolio construction with the Golden Ratio, the recent popularity of managed futures with the info-sales and marketing crowd, portfolio management with asset swapping between taxable and tax-protected accounts, and REITs in the Portfolio Charts Portfolio Finder.
Links:
Portfolio Charts Tax Loss Harvesting Article: Harvesting the Fall: Why I Sold All My Bonds – Portfolio Charts
Buffett's Alpha Paper: Buffett’s Alpha (tandfonline.com)
Brad's Portfolio Construction Article: How to Balance a Portfolio - (breakingthemarket.com)
Brad's Other Article: Breaking the Market University -
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Finder: PORTFOLIO FINDER – Portfolio Charts
Early Retirement Now SWR Spreadsheet Tool Article and Link: An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28) – Early Retirement Now

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Episode 216: Tools & Talent, Fractional Shares, More Managed Futures And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 4, 2022 Nov 05, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Blake, Gen and MyContactInfo. We discuss Blake's good work with analysis tools, fractional shares of ETFs and more on managed futures and DBMF.
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Blake's Model Portfolios: Model-Portfolios-for-Every-Financial-Stage-v2.pdf (pathwaytofi.com)
Blake's White Paper: Construction-and-Analysis-of-the-Pathway-to-FI-Model-Portfolios-v2.pdf (pathwaytofi.com)
Portfolio Charts Risk/Reward Calculator: RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Visualizer Asset Correlation Analyzer: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
MyContactInfo Links to Andrew Beer/DBMF podcast: The Investors First Podcast: Andrew Beer, Dynamic Beta Investments: Replicating Hedge funds in an ETF Wrapper on Apple Podcasts

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Episode 215: Heavy Metal, ESG, Growth & Value Funds And The Infernal JEPI Nov 02, 2022

In this episode we return from vacation ready to rumble and answer emails from Peter, David, MyContactInfo (x2) and Mark. We appreciate our listeners and then annoy them (I've got an angle), talk about ESG investing and why you want to have both growth and value funds and talk about buy-write funds in general and JEPI in particular.
Links:
Risk Parity Chronicles Resources: Resources - Risk Parity Chronicles
ESG Article One: Shades of Green - HumbleDollar
ESG Article Two: Musings on Markets: ESG's Russia Test: Trial by Fire or Crash and Burn? (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)
Backtest of 50/50 Value/Growth vs. Total Market: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Asset Correlation Matric for JEPI: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 214: Tilting At Dragons, Common Mistakes And Getting Back To Theoretical Risk Parity Oct 19, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Harvey (a large rodent), MyContactInfo and Mark. We discuss the Dragon Portfolio and managed futures funds like DBMF, reprise Episode 202, some common mistakes of amateur investors, reverse mortgages (briefly), and how we have incorporated and modified classic and theoretical risk parity principles.
Links:
Recent Interview of Andrew Beer (DBMF): 214 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer – October 16th, 2022 | Top Traders Unplugged
Harvey's First Link re Dragon Portfolio: How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole) - YouTube
Harvey's Second Link re Dragon Portfolio: How to Build the Dragon Portfolio - YouTube
In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio book: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest by Andrew W. Lo (goodreads.com)
CFA Manual Chapter re Risk Parity: chapter-4-from-managing-multiasset-strategies-2018.pdf (callan.com)
Early Retirement Now Gold Study: Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now

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Episode 213: The Coldness Of WARM, More Annuities, Fractional Shares And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 14, 2022 Oct 15, 2022

In this episode we answer questions from Jeremy, Richard and Gen. We discuss the moribund WARM portfolio strategy, more issues about annuities and where to learn more about them, and fractional share trading of ETFs.
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
JL Collins Article on WARM Strategy: Sleeping soundly thru a market crash: The Wasting Asset Retirement Model - JLCollinsnh
Bogleheads Critiques of WARM Strategy: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM - Bogleheads.org
Stan The Annuity Man Channel: Stan The Annuity Man - YouTube

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Episode 212: Revocable Trusts, Portfolio Management And Small Cap Funds Oct 12, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Sue, Vern and Rene. We discuss revocable trusts, where and where not to get them and why or why not you might want one, the mechanics of rebalancing and drawing down on a portfolio with multiple accounts, and the differences between various small cap funds like IJR, IJS, IJT and VIOV.

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Episode 211: Leverage, Real Estate, Projections And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 7, 2022 Oct 09, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Boone, MyContactInfo and Alex. We discuss issues with leverage, real estate invesments, spreadsheet projections and guessing about the future. Listen for the BLOOPER!
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Video About Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
Optimized Portfolios Leveraged ETFs Reviews: The 9 Best Leveraged ETFs To Enhance Portfolio Exposure (2022) (optimizedportfolio.com)
MyContactInfo's Link to Vanguard REIT: VGSLX-Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares | Vanguard

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Episode 210: More SWRs, REITs, Factor Investing And Cruising To Winning the Game Oct 05, 2022

In this episode we follow up on Episode 209 with some recent (as in this week) Wade Pfau references that confirm what we said about overly pessimistic SWR assumptions. And then we answer emails from Justin, Drew, Jim and Chris. We discuss REITs and the Risk Parity Chronicles series about them, good sources for information about factor or "smart beta" investing, and questions about transitioning from accumulation to decumulation when you are close to "winning the game."
Links:
Retire With Style Podcast #34: Retire With Style - Episode 34: Even In Volatile Markets, Find Out Why The 4% Rule Distribution May Be Too Low (google.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles REIT Series Conclusion: Post-script to REITs series: How do individual REITs compare? (riskparitychronicles.com)
Rational Reminder Podcast #213: RR #213 - Expected Returns and Factor Investing - YouTube
Rational Reminder Podcast #129: RR #129 - Five Factor Investing with ETFs - YouTube
Resolve Asset Management YouTube Channel: ReSolve Asset Management - YouTube

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Episode 209: Popular SWR Delusions And The Madness Of Gurus And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 30, 2022 Oct 01, 2022

In this episode we answer a lengthy email from Kevin about issues with popular estimates of Safe Withdrawal Rates. We then discuss the problems with and failings of some of these estimates and their underlying analysis, including why Best Practices beat Convenient Shibboleths, failures to analyze non-simplistic portfolios, misuse of the "reversion to the mean" concept, improper use of conservative assumptions and modelling software, improper use of the 30-year time frame, and the failure to incorporate well-accepted favorable assumptions.
We also discuss appeals to popularity and conflicts of interest, including safety in numbers, the use of double standards, the popularity of pessimism, and the desire to please sponsors, sell products and maintain past consistency, whether foolish or warranted.
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
SWR Series #34: Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now
Next Level Life Video re Gold: Why Are Gold Portfolios So Dependable? - YouTube
RAM Interview of Wade Pfau: ReSolve Riffs with Wade Pfau on Optimal Retirement Strategies - YouTube
Morningstar 2011 (Lousy) Predictions Article: Your Forecasts for Stock and Bond Returns (2011)| Morningstar
Portfolio Charts SWR/PWR Calculator: WITHDRAWAL RATES – Portfolio Charts
Kitces Article Re Consequences of Retirement Spending Smile: How Total Spending Declines Over Time In Retirement (kitces.com)
RAM Interview of Antti Ilmanen: Antti Ilmanen on his new book "Investing Amid Low Expected Returns" - YouTube
Immediate Annuities Website: Immediate Annuities - Income Annuity Quote Calculator - ImmediateAnnuities.com

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Episode 208: Advice For New Investors -- We're Off To See The Wizard! Sep 28, 2022

In this episode we discuss an email from and conversation with Paul Merriman. We follow up on his suggestion/request that we create an episode for beginning investors to help them get going in a simple way that can work. And then we embark on a very special trip. Very. Special.
Links:
The Four Phases of Saving and Investing for Retirement: The Four Phases Of Saving For Retirement (kitces.com) Earn = Kansas. Save = Munchkinland. Grow = The Roads To Emerald City. Preserve = Emerald City.
Paul Merriman website: Home - Paul Merriman
Paul Merriman Sound Investing podcast: Podcasts - Paul Merriman
Paul Merriman Best In Class Funds: Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations - Paul Merriman
Earn & Invest Podcast (#349) Interview of Paul Merriman: Are We Leaving Money on the Table? — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)

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Episode 207: Freak Out With Math, Intermediate Term Portfolios, Annuities And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 23, 2022 Sep 24, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Arun, Jeffrey and Chris. We discuss using simple back-of-the-envelope estimation methods to solve for complex portfolio projections, using a risk parity style portfolio for intermediate accumulations, and re-cap annuity considerations from Episode 184.
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Arun's question:
"What type of portfolio would you suggest for below scenario. I can invest $x a month for y years and can let it sit for n years. After y+n years would like to start withdrawing at least .75x dollars per month perpetually. Value of x would be less than $1000 and value of y would be 5-10 years but depending on future need and market condition it can stay longer or shorter. Ideally would like to have n=0 but that might be too ambitious. Is there to tool to play with these variables that you know and what type of portfolio would you suggest."

Additional Links:
Risk Savvy book: Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions by Gerd Gigerenzer | Goodreads
Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator with Multi-stage Analyzer: Financial Goals (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Rule of 72: Rule of 72 - Wikipedia

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Episode 206: Mauboussin, Cowbell and Bogle, Oh My! Sep 21, 2022

In this episode we answer questions from MyContactInfo, Wesley and Adam. In a tour de force presentation, we discuss Michael Mauboussin's book, "The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports and Investing", the implications of an all small-cap value portfolio and applying the ideas of Bruce Lee and Emerson to Jack Bogle's "Common Sense Investing". And we also take a frolic and detour into the Twilight Zone.
Links:
CFA Institute Book Review the The Success Equation: The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing (a review) (cfainstitute.org)
Twilight Zone Episode Clips: Twilight Zone: Of Late I Think Of Cliffordville - YouTube
Earn & Invest Podcast (#349) Interview of Paul Merriman: Are We Leaving Money on the Table? — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)
Rational Reminder Podcast Interview of Vanguard's Former CIO: Episode 216: Gus Sauter: Vanguard's Former CIO on Indexing, Active Management, and Private Equity — Rational Reminder

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Program Note (September 14) Sep 14, 2022

Aaaand we're gone! Poof!
Back next week!

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Episode 205: Bonds On The Run, More Cowbell And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 9, 2022 Sep 10, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Connor, Paul and Paul Z. We discuss a new single bond ETF, Paul's risk parity style portfolio and AVUV vs. VIOV. And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Connor's Article: Single-Bond ETFs Solve Some Key Investing Problems (wealthmanagement.com)
Analysis of Paul's Portfolio and Alternatives: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Interview of Eduardo Repetto: Episode 43: Bogleheads on Investing – guest Eduardo Repetto, host Rick Ferri – Rick Ferri, CFA
AVUV Webpage: AVUV - Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF | Avantis Investors

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Episode 204: What Should I Do If I Am Dying And Want To Try Short-Term Trading? Sep 07, 2022

In this episode I answer a question from Charles, who has a terminal illness. We go off topic and discuss books about dying, examples of people who did it well, and resources for short-term trading.
Links:
End of Life Series: Barbara Karnes' End of Life Guideline Series - BK Books – BK Books
The Five Invitations: The Book | The Five invitations: What Death Can Teach Us About Living Fully – by Frank Ostaseski
Taking Stock: Jordan Grumet | Welcome to JordanGrumet.com
Blue Zones Vitality Test: True Vitality Test by Blue Zones
Sit-Rise Test: This test could predict how long you will live - YouTube
Shadow Trader Site: ShadowTrader: Daily Market Trading News Stories & Market Education
Peter Reznicek Video: Peter Reznicek - ShadowTraders @ 1pm ET - How I prepare each morning to trade - YouTube
Tasty Trade: tastytrade: A Financial Network for Options & Futures Trading | tastytrade
Market Wizards Books: market wizards books schwager - Search (bing.com)
Big ERN Options Strategy: Trading like an Escape Artist: How I made money in October trading S&P Futures Options with 2x leverage – Early Retirement Now
Kelly Criterion: Kelly Criterion Definition (investopedia.com)
Ed Thorp Autobiography: A Man For All Markets - Edward O. Thorp (edwardothorp.com)

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Episode 203: Stop Using Blackberries, REITs, Data Sources And Portfolio Reviews As Of September 2, 2022 Sep 04, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Gen, Greg and Nathan. We discuss how to find funds using a fund screener and why you should not be using the investment account equivalents of blackberries and flip-phones any more, individual REIT selections, and value and growth data sources. I forgot to mention that the other individual REIT we hold is WY, which invests in timber (and thereby missed another opportunity to play the lumberjack song.)
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Fund Screener: Fund Screener (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Rob Berger Video About Vanguard's New Fees: Vanguard Fees Are Going Up -- Here's Why and How to Avoid Them - YouTube
Investopedia Article - Value vs. Growth in the S&P 500: Value or Growth Stocks: Which Is Better? (investopedia.com)
Value vs. Growth Over Time: Canterbury Investment Management - Value versus Growth: A Brief Historical View (canterburygroup.com)
DFA Matrix Book: Matrix+Book+2020.pdf (squarespace.com)
Walk For McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 202: Buy, Borrow, Die And Why You Should Listen To Me (i.e., Nonsensical Ravings) Aug 31, 2022

In this episode we answer questions from Andy and Todd. We discuss the Buy, Borrow, Die Strategy and everything you wanted to know about the Host (or maybe not) and his approach.
Links:
Luke Burgis Book About Mimetic Theory: Wanting: The Power of Mimetic Desire in Everyday Life by Luke Burgis | Goodreads
Barking Up The Wrong Tree Book: Barking Up the Wrong Tree: The Surprising Science Behind Why Everything You Know About Success Is (Mostly) Wrong by Eric Barker | Goodreads
Interview of Rick Ferri About His Portfolio: Show Us Your Portfolio: Rick Ferri - YouTube

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Episode 201: The Limits On Risk/Reward Ratios, What To Tell Your Kids And Avoiding Trading Pitfalls Aug 24, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Micah, Steve and Keith. We discuss the limit on the usefulness of Sharpe and Sortino ratios, helping out Steve's daughters with building and managing a portfolio for medium-length goals and what else Uncle Frank says to guide his adult kids with ant brains and grasshopper brains and comparing actual performances with Portfolio Visualizer models.
Links:
Portfolio Visualizer comparison of short term treasuries and gold: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
PHYS ETF particulars: Sprott Physical Gold Trust
Walk For McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 200: Putting The Opus In Your Magnum With A Milestone And Portfolio Reviews As Of August 19, 2022 Aug 21, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Justus (x2), Anderson and Blake. We discuss life transitions, what I've learned over an evolving DIY investing career, and Blake's Pathway of FI.
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Portfolio Charts Sample Portfolios: Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Risk Parity Chronicles Resources Page: Resources - Risk Parity Chronicles
Kitces Four Phases Article: The Four Phases Of Saving For Retirement (kitces.com)
Blake's Article: Model-Portfolios-for-Every-Financial-Stage.pdf (pathwaytofi.com)
Blake's Model Portfolio Construction Paper: Construction-and-Analysis-of-the-Pathway-to-FI-Model-Portfolios.pdf (pathwaytofi.com)
Morningstar Tool With International Fund: VXUS – Portfolio – Vanguard Total International Stock ETF | Morningstar
Walk For McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 199: Dude! Ned! Managed Futures and Leverage! Aug 17, 2022

In this episodes we answer emails from Alexi (Dude!), Brian, NED(!) and William. We discuss DBMF and managed futures funds, a 80/10/10 transition portfolio, leverage in accumulation portfolios and adjusting all-stock index fund portfolios.
Links:
Walk For McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center
Andrew Beer (DBMF) Interview: Jack Bogle of Hedge Funds (guest: Andrew Beer) - Market Huddle Ep.188 - YouTube
Brian's Transition Portfolio Compare To One With More Cowbell: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Ben Felix Video About Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
"Buffett's Alpha" White Paper: Buffett’s Alpha (tandfonline.com)

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Episode 198: The Possibility Effect, Accumulation Portfolios, Tax Loss Harvesting And Portfolio Reviews As Of August 12, 2022 Aug 13, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Karen, Adam and Pankaj. We revisit China and reserve currencies, discuss cognitive biases, talk about accumulation portfolios, bonds and the Macro Allocation Principle, and about tax loss harvesting bond and gold ETFs.
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Ben Felix Video On Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
ETF Database: List of All ETFs - Exchange Traded Funds | ETF Database (etfdb.com)
TYA ETF Information Page: TYA Simplify Risk Parity Treasury ETF | Simplify
PHYS Information Page: Sprott Physical Gold Trust
Charity Walk For McKenna: Walk4McKenna - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 197: MBS, Defense Stock and Short Term Bond Funds, And Ragging On Financial TV Aug 10, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Howard, Paxton, Neil and Soo New. We discuss why financial TV is bad for your financial mind and health, the RISR ETF that invests in interest components of mortgage-backed securities, defense stock ETFs, the JPST ETF and what Soo New might do with her employer pension fund. It's Weird, Wild Stuff!
Links:
RISR Information Page: Rising Rate ETF (RISR) — FolioBeyond ETFs
Morningstar Analysis of ITA Defense Stock ETF: ITA – Portfolio – iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF | Morningstar
JPST Analysis: JPST – JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar
Immediate Annuity Price/Quote Site: Immediate Annuities - Income Annuity Quote Calculator - ImmediateAnnuities.com

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Episode 196: Extended Duration Bonds, Books About Life Transitions, China And Portfolio Reviews As Of August 5, 2022 Aug 06, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Davis, Justus and Value Stock Geek. We discuss how to use extended duration bond funds like EDV, ZROZ and GOVZ, reprise our discussion about life transitions from Episode 71 and veer off into Peter Zeihan and China's demographics.
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Note that I discovered some of my return numbers were wrong (WRONG!) after recording this episode. They are corrected on the website.
Additional Links:
Arthur Brooks book: From Strength to Strength - Arthur C. Brooks (arthurbrooks.com)
David Brooks book: The Second Mountain by David Brooks (goodreads.com)
Richard Rohr book: Falling Upward: A Spirituality for the Two Halves of Life by Richard Rohr (goodreads.com)
Peter Zeihan with Meb Faber: Episode #419: Peter Zeihan – Deglobalization, Depopulation, & What It Means Going Forward - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Disunited Nations book: Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World: Zeihan, Peter: 9780062913685: Amazon.com: Books
Shock of Gray book: Shock of Gray: The Aging of the World's Population and How it Pits Young Against Old, Child Against Parent, Worker Against Boss, Company Against Rival, and Nation Against Nation by Ted C. Fishman (goodreads.com)
Lying Flat and Let It Rot Movements in China: After lying flat, a new trend among China's youth is to “let it rot (bai lan)” which worries CCP - YouTube

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Episode 195: Comparing Cars And Brokerages, Analyzing Concentrated Funds, And More Cowbell! Aug 03, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo (x2), William and Peter. We discuss how brokerages and cars are alike, a correlation episode reference, analyzing a portfolio with Fidelity Select Funds in it (and other things) and transitions from VTSAX to some small cap cowbell and then to a Golden Ratio portfolio for retirement.
Links:
I'm Not Leaving Vanguard Article: Why I’m Not Leaving Vanguard | ETF.com
60/40 Is Still Alive Article: Like the phoenix, the 60/40 portfolio will rise again (vanguard.com)
Morningstar Fund Analysis Tool: FSRPX – Portfolio – Fidelity® Select Retailing | Morningstar
Asset Correlation Analysis Of Will's Portfolio: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
ChooseFI Podcast Episode 194 About Bonds: The Role Of Bonds In A Portfolio | Ep 194 | ChooseFI

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Episode 194: Dunn Capital, The "Cockroach Portfolio" And Weekly/Monthly Portfolio Reviews As Of July 29, 2022 Jul 30, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Visitor #1109, Keith and Brad. We discuss Dunn Capital and Managed Futures funds, our podcast charity -- the Father McKenna Center --, and Mutiny Fund's "Cockroach Portfolio".
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Dunn Capital: Home - Dunn Capital
Top Traders Unplugged Podcast: Top Traders Unplugged
Mutiny Fund's Cockroach Portfolio: The Cockroach Portfolio - Mutiny Fund

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Episode 193: Musings About Private Equity, The Paradox Of Skill, Volatility-Targeting Strategy, Yield Curve Inversions And Dolly Parton Jul 28, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo (x2), Chris, and Andrew. We discuss "The Myth of Private Equity" by Jeff Hooke, the paradox of skill and how it is applied in garden-based portfolio construction, volatility targeting as a decision making mechanism for investing and my gout, my podcast musical selections and the security of the Golden Ratio portfolio. And we throw in a yield curve inversion video. We do it all here.
Links:
The Myth of Private Equity book: The Myth of Private Equity | Columbia University Press
Interview of Jeff Hooke: 361 – Jeff Hooke, Johns Hopkins - The Myth of Private Equity - YouTube
Paradox of Skill Article: The Paradox of Skill - Farnam Street
Primer on Volatility Targeting: An Introduction to Volatility Targeting - QuantPedia
Interview of Campbell Harvey re Yield Curve Inversion: Predicting Economic Activity with Yield Curves - YouTube

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Episode 192: Our Annual Rebalancing Episode And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 22, 2022 Jul 24, 2022

In this annual feature we discuss how we rebalanced four of the sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio and have frolics and detours into discussions of bucket strategies, crypto-funds and the details of the Risk Parity Ultimate sample portfolio. We also highlight a new video tutorial from Justin at Risk Parity Chronicles about the Risk/Return tool at Portfolio Charts and do our weekly portfolio reviews of all seven sample portfolios.
Links:
Risk Parity Chronicles post and tutorial: Portfolio Charts Risk/Return Chart Tutorial (riskparitychronicles.com)
YouTube Link to tutorial: PC Risk/Return Chart Tutorial - YouTube
Interview of the originator of the "bucket strategy": Conversation with the Father of the Bucket Strategy--Harold Evensky - YouTube
Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio Correlations Matrix: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio Backtest: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 191: Teaching Fishing, Anomalous Data, Vanguard Frustrations And Investing For A Six-Year Old Jul 20, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Anderson, Aaron, Anna and Travis. We discuss how to use Portfolio Visualizer to compare portfolios on a particular time-frame using samples and a 60/40, where to address any data issues to Portfolio Charts and Portfolio Visualizer, and the current frustrations many are having with using Vanguard. And then we consult a crystal ball to help a six-year old child.
Links:
Comparison of Golden Butterfly, Golden Ratio and 60/40 Portfolios: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Charts Data Page: Data Sources – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Visualizer FAQ Page (Data Sources at Bottom): Frequently Asked Questions (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 190: Portfolio Construction 101, Golden Ratio, I-Bonds, And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 15, 2022 Jul 16, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Jody, Neil and The Nameless One. We discuss the basic ideas of portfolio constructions and the tools for doing it, the Golden Ratio portfolio and gold itself, and more I-bond suggestions and links.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Examples: Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Finder Tool: PORTFOLIO FINDER – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Matrix Tool: PORTFOLIO MATRIX – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Risk and Return Tool: RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts
Asset Correlation Tool: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles Resources: Resources - Risk Parity Chronicles
The Perfect Portfolio Book: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest by Andrew W. Lo | Goodreads
Nameless One's I-bond Articles: I Bonds Archives - The Finance Buff

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Episode 189: Existential Questions About Economy Worship, Ray Dalio and China, And Risk Parity Chronicles Jul 13, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Rob and Justin. We discuss a paper about GDP and the problems with using it to predict stock market returns, why China may never overtake the U.S. and ascend to reserve currency status and a most excellent rebalancing resource you can find at the Risk Parity Chronicles website and blog.
Links:
Economic Growth and Equity Returns Paper: Microsoft Word - EconGrowth.doc (ssrn.com)
GDP Article: Gross domestic product - Wikipedia
Risk Parity Chronicles Rebalancing Resource: Version 1.1 of the Simple Portfolio Rebalancing Spreadsheet (riskparitychronicles.com)

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Episode 188: All Small, All Value, All The Time And Our Boring Portfolio Reviews As Of July 8, 2022 Jul 09, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Paul, Soo-New and Geordi. We discuss using the AVUV fund for your small cap value allocation, the timing of withdrawals to reduce stress and crystal balls, and small cap value vs. small cap blend funds. And we reference an article at Portfolio Charts reviewing common portfolios' performances in the first half of 2022.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Asset Correlation Analysis of IJR and IJS: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Charts First Half of 2022 Portfolio Reviews: Halfway to Nowhere: 2022 Mid-Year Portfolio Rankings – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 187: Biased Business Models, A TSP Rollover And A Crystal Ball, Managed Futures And A Gambling Problem Jul 06, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Brett and Jamie. We discussed inherent biases, rolling over a TSP portfolio and reallocating it at Fidelity with or without a crystal ball, have a lengthy talk about allocations to managed futures and the difficulties in analyzing them, and SCO, a short oil futures ETF.
Links:
Gwen's Frustrations With A Rollover: Navigating The Archaic, Convoluted, Confusing, And Utterly Enraging 401(k) Rollover Process | Fiery Millennials
Patrick Boyle's Investment Musings In An Entertaining Accent: Investing In An Inflationary Environment! - YouTube
Artemis Capital's Hawk And Serpent Paper: DocSend
CME Paper Re CTA Indexes: a-comparison-of-cta-indexes.pdf (cmegroup.com)

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Episode 186: Fortune Favors The Brave, Rose Gardens, Treasury Bonds And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 1, 2022 Jul 02, 2022

In this episode we answer questions from Matsui, FuriousRiskParityInvestor and Paul. We discuss why we have chosen excessively aggressive withdrawal rates for the sample portfolios, revisit treasury bond correlation issues and why smaller allocations to long-term treasuries make more sense than larger allocations to intermediate treasury bonds in most risk parity style portfolios.
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Flights To Safety Treasury Bond Correlation Paper from Episode 176: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Analysis of Golden Butterfly variations with intermediate treasury bonds: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 185: Interactive Brokers, Private Equity, Asset Gardening, Stagflation And Grumpy Old Men Jun 29, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Eric, Colin and Chris. We discuss the pros and cons of Interactive Brokers, the generally useless nature of private equity, David Stein's Asset Gardening approach, and stagflation. And that's the way it was and we liked it!
Links:
Correlation Analysis of Private Equity Fund (PSP): Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Article about stagflation and the origin of the term: Stagflation Definition (investopedia.com)

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Episode 184: Lazy Authors, Simple Annuities, And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 24, 2022 Jun 26, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Nancy and Anderson. We discuss why I'm not writing a book any time soon, the performance stats on the Portfolios Page, when I might consider a simple annuity and why I don't like financial personality profiling, and the difficulties of adding leverage in portfolio downturns.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Money for the Rest of Us Podcast about Annuities: 279: Why All Retirees Should Consider an Income Annuity - Money For The Rest of Us - | Money For The Rest of Us
Immediate Annuities Website: Immediate Annuities - Income Annuity Quote Calculator - ImmediateAnnuities.com
Blue Zones Longevity Test: Live Longer, Better - Blue Zones
The Drive Podcast: The Peter Attia Drive Podcast - Peter Attia (peterattiamd.com)

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Episode 183: The Cost Matters Hypothesis, I-bonds, Emerson And Swiss Pop Music Jun 22, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Jeff, Liah and Andrin. We discuss asset pricing models, the history of economics and Bogle's Cost Matter Hypothesis, Emerson and Foolish Consistencies and the FTSE All World GDP Weighted Index.
Links:
Self-Reliance: Self-Reliance: Change Your Life For The Better - Ralph Waldo Emerson (emersoncentral.com)
Self-Reliance Audio: Self-Reliance Ralph Waldo Emerson Audio Book - YouTube
FTSE All-World Index: GDP-Weighted-Paper.pdf (ftserussell.com)
ACWI Fund Page: iShares MSCI ACWI ETF | ACWI

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Episode 182: A Portfolio Management Extravaganza And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 17, 2022 Jun 19, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Julie T, Geordi and Justin. We discuss mechanisms for withdrawals from retirement portfolios, transitioning portfolios as you get close to retirement and the whys and hows of adding new investments to a portfolio.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing for reference:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?

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Episode 181: Fun With Rebalancing Schemes And More Financial Services Industry Malfeasance Jun 15, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Brian, Grant and MyContactInfo. We discuss rebalancing mechanisms and rules for various kinds of portfolios and the big discount brokers.
Links:
Optimized Rebalancing Article: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)
Brian's Golden Butterfly with Annual Rebalancing: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation Brian #1 (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Brian's Golden Butterfly with Rebalancing Bands: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation Brian #2 (portfoliovisualizer.com)
A Rebalancing Band Improvement on Those Two: https://tinyurl.com/2p8rm2ws
Grant's Leveraged Portfolio with Monthly Data: https://tinyurl.com/58wakx33
Grant's Google Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Bz8uwpSYkMSaBZjc7vaF7nL7i5B4dKl7XyKXj2D3HVU/edit?usp=sharing
MyContactInfo Vanguard Link: What sets us apart from other asset management firms (vanguard.com)
Article re Schwab re Intelligent Investor Funds: Schwab to Pay SEC $186M Over ‘No Hidden Fee’ Claims for Cash-Heavy Robo | ThinkAdvisor

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Episode 180: Uncle Frank's Book Corner And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 10, 2022 Jun 11, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Kirk, MyContactInfo and Holly. We revisit QREARX, Episode 179 and Correlation Metrics, and then we entertain Holly's requests for book recommendations. And I forgot to recommend "Money For The Rest Of Us" by J. David Stein in that segment.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
TIAA QREARX Summary: TIAA Real Estate Account
Risk Parity Books at Risk Parity Chronicles: Top 10 Risk Parity Resources: #10... Shahidi (2021) (riskparitychronicles.com)
"Taking Stock" by Jordan Grumet (Doc G): Taking Stock: A Hospice Doctor's Advice on Financial Independence, Building Wealth, and Living a Regret-Free Life: Grumet, Jordan, Robin, Vicki: 9781646043545: Amazon.com: Books
"Money for the Rest of Us" book: Money for the Rest of Us: 10 Questions to Master Successful Investing: Stein, J. David: 9781260453867: Books (amazon.com)
RSA Animate Video: RSA ANIMATE: Drive: The surprising truth about what motivates us - YouTube
Prospecting Mimetic Fractals: The Lenses of Wisdom - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals

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Episode 179: Better Call Bridget, Why Rice Plays Texas And Other Weird Wild Stuff Jun 08, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Karen, Ron, Brian and Paul. We discuss shameless plugs for my family and friends and other considerations in selecting a financial advisor/manager, the full cycle of investing and Paul's value- and Iowa-focused portfolio.
Links:
Bridget Patel (better call her): Bridget Patel - Profile | Alliance of Comprehensive Planners Community (acplanners.org)
Values Added Financial: About Us – Values Added Financial
Holly Grosvenor: Microstuff.com - Financial coaching helping you and your family gain Financial confidence - Microstuff
Cody Garrett: Meet Cody - Measure Twice Financial
Kitces Interview of Cody Garrett: Using An Advice-Only Approach To Grow With DIY Validators (kitces.com)
OLIO Financial: OLIO Financial Planning (meetolio.com)
Kitces Interview of Andrew Miller: Replacing The AUM Fee With A Complexity-Based Fee (kitces.com)
Paul's Portfolio And Comparison: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 178: AQR Articles, Wild West Gambling Problems, Japan And Portfolio Reviews As Of June 3, 2022 Jun 05, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from George, Grant, Visitor #4090, Justin and Lili. We discuss the long-time usage and popularity of risk parity concepts by professional investors, a levered Golden Butterfly portfolio, the website chat function, Japan, crypto (a little) and consulting services. And my general laziness.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
AQR Paper "Understanding Risk Parity": Understanding Risk Parity (aqr.com)
Recent Cliff Asness Interview: Cliff Asness: Value Stocks Still Look Like a Bargain | The Long View (simplecast.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles Resource References: Resources - Risk Parity Chronicles
Grant's Levered Golden Butterfly Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
ETF Database -- Levered Funds: Leveraged Equity ETF List (etfdb.com)

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Episode 177: Passive Index Funds, Foolish Consistencies, ZROZ And A Couple Marketing Fads Jun 01, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Andrew, Visitor #4691, Nate, and MyContactInfo. We discuss the new-age-old question about passive indexing and market efficiency, the intersection between the ideas of Max Planck and Ralph Waldo Emerson and how it applies to the development of ideas in portfolio construction, using ZROZ to tax-loss harvest TLT and observations about the promotion by the financial services industry of direct indexing and tax loss harvesting services.
Links:
Max Planck's Principle: Planck's principle - Wikipedia
Ben Carlson Article about Indexing: Who Owns All the Stocks & Bonds? (awealthofcommonsense.com)
Portfolio Charts Portfolio List: Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Optimized Portfolios Lazy Portfolio List: 52 Lazy Portfolios and Their ETF Pies for M1 Finance (2022) (optimizedportfolio.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles Mega-Resources Pages: Resources - Risk Parity Chronicles
Perfect Portfolio book: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest: Lo, Professor Andrew W: 9780691226446: Amazon.com: Books
White Coat Investor Tax Loss Harvesting Article: The Case Against Tax-Loss Harvesting | White Coat Investor

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Episode 176: How Bond Correlations Work, When To Buy, A Simple Path And Portfolio Reviews As Of May 27, 2022 May 28, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Steve, Judy and Geordi. We discuss the data surrounding stock/treasury bond correlations back to 1952, when and why you might want to hold bonds and a process for figuring that out and my takes on The Simple Path To Wealth. With detours into prison jumpsuits, SpongeBob and Ray Liotta.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Flights To Safety Treasury Bond Correlation Paper: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Choose FI "Role of Bonds in a Portfolio" podcast: The Role Of Bonds In A Portfolio | Ep 194 - ChooseFI
Kitces Four Phases of Investing Article: The Four Phases Of Saving For Retirement (kitces.com)

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Episode 175: Global Monetary Systems, The Dude And Other Emails May 25, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, the Nameless One, Jeff, Alexi (a/k/a Dude), and another Jeff. We talk about leveraged ETFs (briefly), thoughts about changes in the Global Monetary System, another portfolio site, ETFs KBWR and KBWP and efficient accumulation.
Links:
Ray Dalio's Latest Book: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail - Kindle edition by Dalio, Ray. Politics & Social Sciences Kindle eBooks @ Amazon.com.
Lords of Finance Book: Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World by Liaquat Ahamed | Goodreads
Lazy Portfolio Site: Lazy Portfolios and ETF composition (lazyportfolioetf.com)
Asset Correlations of KBWR and KBWP: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 174: The Meta-Considerations of Country Risk, RPR "Club", And Portfolio Reviews As Of May 13, 2022 May 14, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Soo-New, Monika, Jeff and Jack. We discuss building out a risk parity portfolio in multiple accounts, the perils of membership in the Risk Parity Radio Club, the latest fads and gimmicks in Direct Indexing, how to consider and compare investing in different countries with Country Risk Factors and the intellectual perils of the Possibility Effect.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Country Risk Factors: Assess Country Risk (trade.gov)
Bailout Nation Book: Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy by Barry Ritholtz | Goodreads

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Episode 173: REITs, Struggling Bond Funds, More Cowbell And Portfolio Reviews As Of May 6, 2022 May 07, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Jamie, Jean-Luc and Geordi. We discuss a paper about REITs as a separate asset class, what to do about struggling bond funds, the value of small-cap value and choosing a retirement portfolio in line with Bill Bengen's recommendations.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Jamie's Article -- Are REITs A Distinct Asset Class?: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Correlation Matrix for Small Caps: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
YouTube Video re Retirement Spending Calculator: Tutorial #1: Portfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator - YouTube
YouTube Video re Monte Carlo Simulator: Tutorial #4: Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator -- Introduction - YouTube
Risk Parity Isn't What You Think It Is: Corey Hoffstein: Risk Parity Isn't What You Think It Is - YouTube

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Episode 172: The Joys Of Factor Investing, Valuation Notions And More Leveraged ETFs May 04, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Andy, MyContactInfo and James The Flatterer. We discuss factor investing in detail, why it is better than prior approaches and how to use it, why using valuation methods is beyond the skills of most amateurs and financial advisors and more fun with Wisdom Tree Funds.
Links:
Factor Investing Article 1: Factor Investing Definition (investopedia.com)
Factor Investing Article 2: Factor investing - Wikipedia
Correlation Analysis of Golden Ratio Factor Funds: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
The Current Portfolio of James: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 171: Email Assortment And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews In A Time Of Cholera Apr 30, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Chas, Javen and Pankaj. We discuss using Berkshire Hathaway in a risk parity-style portfolio, Direxion mutual funds, taxable account considerations (again) and international stock funds (again).
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Direxion Mutual Funds: Direxion Mutual Funds | Direxion
Episode 27 Re Utilities: Podcast #27| Risk Parity Radio
Correlation Analysis Of Several International Funds: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 170: Lazy Hosts, All About Commodities Funds And Other Musings Apr 27, 2022

In this episode we celebrate George's generosity and answer emails from Jeff, Kyle, Richard, Jamie and MyContactInfo. We discuss ulcer indexes and where to find them, leveraged ETFs and rebalancing, tag GDE again, have a lengthy frolic and detour into commodities funds and how they work, and rant a little more about the financial services industry.
Links:
The Father McKenna Center: Home - Father McKenna Center
Portfolio Charts Drawdown Calculator with Ulcer Index: DRAWDOWNS – Portfolio Charts
Optimal Rebalancing Article: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)
Bloomberg Commodity Index: Bloomberg Commodity Index - Wikipedia
Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index: Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Wikipedia
Commodities Fund Article: Investing in Commodity ETFs (investopedia.com)
ETF Database -- Commodities Funds: Commodities ETFs (etfdb.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles re Assets for Inflation: Best Asset Classes for Surviving Inflation: a test (riskparitychronicles.com)

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Episode 169: Financial Services Industry Musings, Taxes, Budgeting And Our Portfolio Reviews As Of April 22, 2022 Apr 24, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo (x2), Chris and Karen. We discuss annuities and conflicts in the financial services industry and why efficient solutions are disfavored, tax considerations for accumulation risk parity portfolios and the joys of budgeting.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Interview of Fairfax County Pension Investment Managers: 7 Allocator Series: Learnings from Fairfax County ft. Katherine Molnar and Andrew Spellar— April 6th, 2022 | Top Traders Unplugged
Monte Carlo Simulator At Portfolio Visualizer: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 168: Celebrating With Risk Parity Chronicles, More Cowbell, Dividend Handling, Two-Fund Portfolios And THE DUDE Apr 20, 2022

In this episode we answer questions from Doron, George, Eddie J. and Alexi (a/k/a "Duder"). We discuss the Macro-Allocation Principle and when to diversify your stock portfolio, what to do with dividends, experimenting with leveraged two-fund portfolios and options for investing in volatility and managed futures/trend following with the Dude.
We also talk about reaching 250,000 downloads and about what's happening over at Risk Parity Chronicles.
Links:
Johnny Ball and his Pentagram: Drawing an Egg (with a Pentagon) - Numberphile - YouTube
Risk Parity Chronicles post re Backtester Tool: Portfolio Backtest Shortcut Tool explainer (riskparitychronicles.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles tutorial: Screencast for Portfolio Backtest Shortcut Tool - YouTube
Risk Parity Chronicles Inflation Post: Best Asset Classes for Surviving Inflation: a test (riskparitychronicles.com)
The Dude's Proposed Dragon-Type Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
The Dude's Portfolio Correlation Analysis: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 167: Portfolio Analysis, New Composite Funds And Pappy O'Daniel's Conflicted Flour Hour Apr 13, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Paul, MyContactInfo, Alex and Marvin. We discuss Paul's sample portfolio construction, inherent conflicts of interest in financial media and the financial services industry, new Wisdom Tree Funds GDE and GDMN and more conflicts of interest from popular personal finance personalities involving day care centers and milk shake drinkers.
Links:
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis Of Paul's Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Charts Analyzer: MY PORTFOLIO – Portfolio Charts
Where Are The Customer's Yachts Book: Where Are the Customers' Yachts?: Or a Good Hard Look at Wall Street by Fred Schwed Jr. | Goodreads

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Episode 166: Tax Loss Harvesting Funds, Withdrawal Mechanics, Tools And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 8, 2022 Apr 09, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Mitchell, Alexi (Dude!), Brian and Daniel. We discuss how to identify similar funds for tax loss harvesting, concentrations and "bad decades", leveraged ETFs in accumulation, using risk-parity portfolios for intermediate accumulations, and withdrawing in retirement from a Golden Butterfly portfolio.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Portfolio Visualizer Asset Correlation Tool: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
PHYS ETF page and description: PHYS Keep More of What You Earn (sprott.com)
Ben Felix Video About Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
Optimized Portfolio website: Optimized Portfolio - Investing and Personal Finance
"Buffett's Alpha" White Paper: Buffett’s Alpha (tandfonline.com)

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Episode 165: Treasury Bonds And Tax Loss Harvesting, Infinite Banking At Interactive Brokers And Staying On Message Apr 06, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Mike, John, Jeff, Wang, and Ray. We discuss recent performance of long-term treasury bonds and tax loss harvesting them, ValueStockGeek's Weird Portfolio (see episodes 113 and 126), borrowing against your portfolio at Interactive Brokers, how to understand criticism and not get caught up in spurious arguments and insults, and staying focused on we are actually trying to do here with advice from Bruce Lee and Ralph Waldo Emerson.
Links:
Weird Portfolio Article: The Weird Portfolio. How To Avoid Bubbles, Limit Drawdowns… | by Value Stock Geek
IRS Page on Form 4952: About Form 4952, Investment Interest Expense Deduction | Internal Revenue Service (irs.gov)
Perfect Portfolio book: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest: Lo, Professor Andrew W: 9780691226446: Amazon.com: Books

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Episode 164: Transitioning Basics, TIPS, Consumption Smoothing, Plato And Our Portfolio Reviews As Of April 1, 2022 Apr 02, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Michelle, Brian, Alan and MyContactInfo. We discuss transitioning from accumulation to decumulation, why TIPS suck (again), consumption smoothing in financial planning and the Allegory of the Cave applied to financial services and media.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Correlation Analysis of TIPs and Treasuries: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
White Coat Investor Article: Consumption Smoothing is Stupid (whitecoatinvestor.com)
The Allegory of the Cave: Allegory of the Cave - Wikipedia
Early Retirement Extreme Book: Early Retirement Extreme: A Philosophical and Practical Guide to Financial Independence by Jacob Lund Fisker | Goodreads
Think Advisor Article With Bad Advice: Wade Pfau: TIPS and Annuities Good Bets When Inflation Is High | ThinkAdvisor

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Episode 163: Let's Put Karen In The Easy Chair And Do A Golden Ratio Case Study! Mar 30, 2022

In this episode we read a novella from Karen about how she is constructing her Golden Ratio-style retirement portfolio. Then we review expense and budgeting considerations, asset locations in multiple accounts, drawing down on a portfolio with ten-year IRAs and the basic options for managing asset sales and distributions. And a bit on REITs to boot!
Fear? That's the other retiree's problem!
Episode 160, where we answered Karen's initial question: Podcast 160| Risk Parity Radio

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Episode 162: Approaching Brazilian TIPs, Treasuries, Insurance Companies, Sector Concentrations And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 25, 2022 Mar 27, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Luis from Brazil, Paul, Alexi (His Dude-ness), and MyContactInfo (a different one). We discuss how to analyze Brazilian TIPs and other role-based assets, the trials and tribulations of treasury bonds, the oddly extraordinary performance of property and casualty insurance companies in times like these, tax considerations in fund-picking and what concentrations in particular stock fund sectors do in risk-parity portfolios.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Analysis of QQQ portfolio vs KBWP portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Risk Parity Chronicles blog and website: Risk Parity Chronicles

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Episode 161: Gonna Fly Now With Risk Parity Chronicles And More Listener Emails Mar 22, 2022

In this episode we announce the roll out of the Risk Parity Chronicles blog and website from our listener Justin. We also address emails from MyContactInfo, Spencer, Satoshi and Andre. We discuss an interview of Eugene Fama about the war in the Ukraine, the ETF SAA (ProShares 2x Small Cap), the inherent problems with analyzing gold in a portfolio pre-1971 and related issues, and how to value a property to be inherited.
Links:
Justin's Risk Parity Chronicles blog and website: Risk Parity Chronicles
Summary of Eugene Fama Interview: Fama: It’s Putin who’s irrational, not the markets | The Evidence-Based Investor (evidenceinvestor.com)
Next Level Life Analysis of Golden Butterfly Portfolio: The Golden Butterfly Investing Strategy Explained (Most CONSISTENT Investing Strategy Ever?) - YouTube
Article Regarding the London Gold Pool of the 1960s: London Gold Pool - Wikipedia

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Episode 160: Blowing Up The Deathstar (Again!) And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of March 18, 2022 Mar 19, 2022

In this episode we address emails from Thomas, Karen and Jeffrey. We discuss high-performing two-fund portfolios, Bill Bengen and Michael Kitces missiles into the Deathstar's crystal balls and exhaust ports, Karen's portfolio management, an updated and improved shortcut tool for analyses at Portfolio Visualizer and Portfolio Charts, and a query about investing in energy sector stocks.
And THEN we scare you with our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
NTSX/GLD portfolio and comparison analysis: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Bill Bengen Critique of Morningstar Study: Is It Now the “3.3% Rule”? - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
Michael Kitces Critique of Morningstar Study: Can Morningstar's Withdrawal Rate Report Refute The 4% Rule? (kitces.com)
Karen's Mod to Mark's Most Excellent Portfolio Shortcutter Tool: Karen's update to Mark's Shortcutter - asset class support and older funds - Google Sheets
Portfolio Visualizer Energy Sector Analysis: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 159: Burn Baby Burn With A New Rant Re Financial Mis-wisdom And Bonus Emails Mar 17, 2022

In this episode we begin with a rant about a Think Advisor article about what financial services is all about -- the PARTY CIRCUIT. And the we address emails from the Nameless One, Kyu, Brian and Eric. We discuss the original Permanent Portfolio and modifications to the Golden Butterfly portfolio, the tax feature of the Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo simulator, efficient allocations in taxable, tax-deferred and tax protected accounts, considerations surrounding expected returns of asset classes and the problems with cash drags in portfolio construction, and the BITW fund and alternatives.
Links:
Think Advisor article: How Advisors Do the Party Circuit | ThinkAdvisor
"Nimble Golden Butterfly" modifications: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Risk Parity Radio Tutorial Video re Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator: Tutorial #4: Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator -- Introduction - YouTube

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Episode 158: Composer And Other Emails And Our Scary Portfolio Reviews As Of March 11, 2022 Mar 12, 2022

In this episode we address emails from Julie T., Julie H. Jeff and Colin. We discuss the automated trading platform Composer, places to learn about crypto and NFTs, the growth factor in equities, the fund PRWCX, a modified Golden Butterfly portfolio, and using ABLE accounts for the "family match".
And THEN we scar you with our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
The Composer website: Composer – Automated trading platform.
Modern Finance podcast: Modern Finance – MoFi
Proof podcast re NFTs: PROOF
Bitcoin Fundamentals podcast: Bitcoin Fundamentals: A Podcast on Bitcoin - The Investor's Podcast Network (theinvestorspodcast.com)
Portfolio Visualizer Growth Fund/Total Stock Fund Correlations: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
PRWCX vs. Golden Ratio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Colin's Modified Golden Butterfly: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 157: Ukraine Is Not Weak, Comparison Tools And Unwinding Annuities Mar 09, 2022

In this episode we give a shout out to our listeners in Ukraine and answer emails from Darren, Jeffrey and Ron. We discuss World Central Kitchen, comparison tools for non-U.S. funds, the Portfolio Visualizer Financial Goals tool, shorter-term use of risk parity portfolios, the disgusting problem of unwinding poorly performing annuity products and some customized risk-parity style portfolios.
Links:
World Central Kitchen charity for Ukraine: World Central Kitchen (wck.org)
Marketwatch example of non-U.S. fund: VWRL | Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF Advanced Charts | MarketWatch
Portfolio Visualizer Financial Goals analysis tool: Financial Goals (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Ron's Custom Portfolios: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 156: International Funds And Value, The Accelerated Permanent Portfolio And More! Mar 02, 2022

In this episode we address emails and messages from Nathan, Michael, MyContactInfo and Visitor 5225. We discuss correlations of international funds vs. small cap value funds, new international small cap value funds, the plusses and minuses of the Accelerated Permanent Portfolio, Aswath Damdaran and the follies of dividend investing, and my email address. Whoa!
And THEN we look at monthly distributions and returns of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
International and small cap value correlation analysis: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Bogleheads Podcast Featuring Eduardo Repetto: Episode 43: Bogleheads on Investing – guest Eduardo Repetto, host Rick Ferri – Rick Ferri, CFA
Video Lecture of Aswath Damodaran re Dividends: Damodaran on Dividends - YouTube

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Episode 155: Problems With Pros, Anti-Beta ETFs, Golden Ratio Considerations And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 25, 2022 Feb 26, 2022

In this episode we address emails from Chris, Kevin from Canada, Davis, Amy and Mark. We discuss RPAR's performance issues, A Canadian Anti-Beta ETF and academic analysis of those strategies, using utilities in the Golden Ratio portfolio, frontier markets and international factor funds, decumulation mechanisms and the Golden Ratio sample portfolio, and DFA-like funds.
And THEN we put you to sleep with our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
RPAR Fact Sheet: RPAR Risk Parity ETF (rparetf.com)
Anti-Beta Strategies Paper: Microsoft Word - BettingAgainstBeta - 20101129.doc (nber.org)
FM/EEM Correlation Analysis: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
DFA ETFs table: Dimensional ETFs

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Episode 154: Leverage In Accumulation, Nice Dinners And Mary Releases The Bees Feb 23, 2022

In this episode we address emails from Brandon, Scot, Junior, Tony and Chris. We address using leverage in accumulation portfolios, thanks to Scot, how QYLD resembles a 1987 Chrysler LeBaron, the UPRO stock split (again), and sources of gold data.
Links:
Ben Felix Video About Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
AQR Paper About Leverage: Alternative Thinking Why Do Most Investors Choose Concentration Over Leverage.pdf
Portfolio Visualizer Destruction of QYLD: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
The 1987 Chrysler LeBaron Convertible: 1987 Chrysler LeBaron Indy Pace Car Convertible - YouTube
Chris's Bogleheads Link: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet - Bogleheads

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Episode 153: These Are The Days Of Investing Philosophies and Books, A Visit From Sweden, The Golden Ratio And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 18, 2022 Feb 19, 2022

In this episode we attend to emails from Justin, Mycontactinfo, Ron, Bastian and Dustin. We discuss the UPRO stock split, Dan Pink's Drive and flow states, Laurence Kotlikoff books and the nature of reality and uncertainty, having a look at PICK and EWD, and more variations on the Golden Ratio portfolio.
And THEN we put you to sleep with our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Mark's Cool Portfolio Shortcutter Tool: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lG18XrJA8-oODSNC0nV2T5nyVPAByU7p901oYn_ECDw/edit#gid=1553040997
RSA Animate "Drive" video: RSA ANIMATE: Drive: The surprising truth about what motivates us - YouTube
Kotlikoff's latest book: Money Magic: An Economist’s Secrets to More Money, Less Risk, and a Better Life: Kotlikoff, Laurence: 9780316541954: Amazon.com: Books
The Rise of Superman book: The Rise of Superman: Decoding the Science of Ultimate Human Performance by Steven Kotler | Goodreads
The Art of Impossible book: The Art of Impossible: A Peak Performance Primer by Steven Kotler | Goodreads
Correlation Analysis of PICK and EWD: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
FXIFX vs. Golden Ratio Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 152: An Analysis Of ProShares UltraPro S&P500 Fund (UPRO) Feb 16, 2022

In this episode we give Mary a break and analyze the ProShares Ultrapro S&P500 ETF, ticker symbol UPRO, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
This fund analysis was suggested/requested by listener Anderson.
Links:
UPRO Fact Sheet: Prosharesfactsheetupro.pdf
UPRO Summary Prospectus: UPRO_summary_prospectus.pdf (proshares.com)
UPRO Semi-Annual Report: Report 11-30-2021 (proshares.com)
Leveraged Funds And How They Work: What Is a Leveraged ETF and How Do They Work? (optimizedportfolio.com)
Nine Best Leveraged Funds Article: The 9 Best Leveraged ETFs To Enhance Portfolio Exposure (2022) (optimizedportfolio.com)
Leverage Generally And Links To Sample Levered Portfolios: Leverage | Optimized Portfolio

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Episode 151: Portfolio Mods, More TIP Thrashing, Dividends And Gran Torinos, And Our Portfolio Reviews As Of February 11, 2022 Feb 13, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Julie T, Justin, Jeffrey, Anderson and the mysterious Mycontactinfo. We discuss Golden Ratio modifications, TIPs vs. commodities and stocks for inflation YTD, asset roles in Risk Parity Portfolios, volatility funds, the good, bad and ugly of dividend investing, ideas for future episodes and Professor Lo's new book (again).
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Golden Ratio Portfolio with Utilities: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Money For The Rest of Us Podcast Episode #374: Lifecycle Investing, Risk Parity Portfolios, and Why Stocks Are Riskier in the Long Run
Money For The Rest of Us Podcast Episode #306: Three Approaches to Asset Allocation | Money For The Rest of Us
Jeffrey's Link re Dividend Investing: Dividend Millionaires - The Compound Investor
Dividend Collapses Article: The Biggest Dividend Stock Collapses of All Time - Dividend.com
Link To Podcast With Professor Lo: Andrew Lo: Finding the Perfect Portfolio--a 'Never-Ending Journey' | Morningstar

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Episode 150: A REIT Extravaganza, His Dudeness (Again), The New Perfect Portfolio Book And Talking PFF Feb 08, 2022

In this episode we answer questions from Steve, Alexi, Mycontactinfo and Brandon. We discuss choosing REITS better than you might with a REIT fund, "inflation winners and losers", the new "In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio" book, and the preferred shares fund PFF.
Links:
VNQ holdings: VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate ETF | Vanguard
NAREIT REIT Sectors: REIT Sectors | Nareit
REIT correlation matrix: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Alexi's Article on Assets that Benefit from Inflation: What Works When Inflation Hits? | Man Institute | Man Group
Perfect Portfolio book link: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio | Princeton University Press

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Episode 149: His Dudeness, Young Paduwan Portfolio, Insurance Companies and Tail Risk, Data Discussions and Portfolio Reviews As Of February 4, 2022 Feb 05, 2022

In this episode we answer questions from Alexi, Vaughn, Yamini, Jamie (x2) and Adam. We discuss merger arbitrage as an asset class, the Macro-Allocation Principle applied to an accumulation portfolio, the benefits of investing in insurance companies, tail risk parity and the my favorite science paper and considerations about the lack of really old data.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Alexi's podcast reference: Why Merger Arb Works (aqr.com)
Alexi's correlation analysis of merger arbitrage funds: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Artemis Capital Research Page: Research & Market Views — Artemis (artemiscm.com)
Artemis Hawk and Serpent Paper: DocSend
Correlation Analysis of Insurance ETFs: Asset Correlations of KBWP (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Tail Risk Parity Paper: Tail Risk Parity (alliancebernstein.com)
More Is Different Science Paper: anderson72more_is_different.pdf (tamu.edu)
Kitces Article re 4% Rule: Can Morningstar's Withdrawal Rate Report Refute The 4% Rule? (kitces.com)

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Episode 148: UPRO Questions, Stand-Up Philosophizing, A UPAR Strategy And A Free New Tool! Feb 02, 2022

In this episode we address emails from Rory (x2), Frank, Andy and Mark. We discuss UPRO issues, where to put gold, role models for retirement, Andy's experiments with UPAR and Mark's wonderful new tool and options strategies for reducing stock market risk.
Links:
Kitces Analysis of Morningstar Safe Withdrawal Rate Report: Can Morningstar's Withdrawal Rate Report Refute The 4% Rule? (kitces.com)
Andy's UPAR Bogleheads Forum Link: The Tobin Two-Fund Portfolio - Bogleheads.org
Mark's Most Excellent Portfolio Shortcutter Tool: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lG18XrJA8-oODSNC0nV2T5nyVPAByU7p901oYn_ECDw/edit#gid=1553040997
A famous stand-up philosopher: A Standup Philosopher - YouTube

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Episode 147: Confronting Yellow-Eyed Bullies, A Nice Bernstein Essay And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of January 28, 2022 Jan 29, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Jeff (x2), Popeye, and the anonymous Mycontactinfo (x2). We discuss some feeble attempts at disparagement by former financial media people and put them in context, an essay on taking your money off the table and weathering financial downturns by Bill Bernstein and an free course from MIT.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
The Bernstein Essay: A Day to Remember - HumbleDollar
The MIT Course with Andrew Lo: Course | Adaptive Markets: Financial Market Dynamics and Human Behavior | edX

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Episode 146: It's A CROC, Mate! An Analysis Of An Australian Dollar ETF For Volatility Diversification Jan 26, 2022

In this episode we give Mary a break and analyze the ProShares Ultrashort Australian Dollar ETF, ticker symbol CROC, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
This fund analysis was suggested/requested by listener Alexi/Dude.
Links:
CROC Fact Sheet: prosharesfactsheetcroc.pdf
CROC Information Page: CROC (proshares.com)
CROC Correlation Analysis: Asset Correlations with CROC (portfoliovisualizer.com)
CROC/BTAL in Golden Butterfly Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
CROC/BTAL in Golden Ratio Portfolio: https://tinyurl.com/2tcemax6
CROC/BTAL in Leveraged Risk Parity Portfolio: https://tinyurl.com/3w7rpk6d

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Episode 145: Uncle Frank's Wild Years, An Email Extravaganza And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 21, 2022 Jan 22, 2022

In this episode we pay tribute to Clark Bender and then answer emails from Chris, Roy, Dustin, Daniel and Kevin. We discuss M1 trading issues, PDBC's 2021 returns, reinvesting dividends, sample portfolio returns, what to do about old stocks lying around, Dustin's sample risk parity portfolio, I-bonds, considerations for international funds, Tom Waits, and an improvised reading list.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Board Game Times podcast: Welcome to Board Game Times! - Board Game Times
RPR Tutorial #4: Tutorial #4: Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator -- Introduction - YouTube
PDBC Performance Statistics: Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (PDBC) Performance History - Yahoo Finance

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Episode 144: You're A Bitcoin Wizard, Harry, Rebalancing Bands, Stable Coins, Transitions And Flexible Withdrawal Strategies Jan 18, 2022

In this episode we address emails from "Harry", Anderson, Brian and Alan. We discuss transitioning a mostly crypto portfolio to retirement, stablecoins, rebalancing bands, 3-5% flexible withdrawal strategies, MORE stablecoin questions and the basics of transitioning from an accumulation portfolio to a retirement portfolio.
Links:
Optimal Rebalancing Article: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)
Never Pay Taxes Again Article: Never Pay Taxes Again - Go Curry Cracker!

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Episode 143: Asset Locations and 401K/IRA Considerations, Catching Falling Knives, Avoiding Poor Information Diets And Simulation Nation! Jan 13, 2022

In this episode we address emails from Patreon Patron Dominic, Javier, Sebastien, David and Ed. We discuss allocating a Golden Butterfly - style portfolio, an application of the Macro-Allocation principle to an accumulation portfolio, a potential gambling problem involving leveraged funds, the psychology of avoiding foolish consistencies and the financial media, and applications of the Monte Carlo simulator and Portfolio Visualizer and the calculators at Portfolio Charts to small cap value based portfolios.
Links:
Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo #1 (small cap value): Monte Carlo Simulation #1 (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo #2 (diversified portfolio): https://tinyurl.com/2cjfu5vr
Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo #3 (de-leveraged small cap value): https://tinyurl.com/2p89vxpn
Portfolio Charts: MY PORTFOLIO – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 142: Slapping Around TIPs and RPAR, Foreign Funds, Basic Questions And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 7, 2022 Jan 08, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Dan, Chas and Sam. We discuss some aspects of a new Risk Parity book, the poor performance and problems with TIPs, sub-portfolio constructions, using a correlation analysis to determine which non-U.S. funds to use, which bond funds to use, why you shouldn't pay attention to proposed legislation, more on international funds and how to find the podcast where your email is answered.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. We also review the lackluster annual performances of RPAR and other professional risk-parity style funds. Note that RPAR is run by the author of the book discussed in answer to the first question.
Additional links:
Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Commodity Producers ETFs list: Commodity Producers Equities ETFs (etfdb.com)
Original RPAR Episode: Podcast #31| Risk Parity Radio
Correlation Analysis of Chas's Proposed Funds: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 141: Alexi Meets Uncle Frank In A Produce Shop And Samples An Easy Chair Jan 05, 2022

In this episode we invite listener Alexi into the den to discuss a variety of topic on his mind. These include gold, municipal bond fund TFI, assorted risk-parity portfolio constructions, the Big Lebowski, gambling problems and leveraged funds, choices in small cap value funds, problems with the M1 platform and liquidity issues, the relationship between the traditional 60/40 portfolio and the Golden Ratio, asset classes that perform well in various growth/inflation quadrants, and the drawbacks to TIPS and other inert allocations.
Links:
Episode 40 re Gold: Podcast #40| Risk Parity Radio
Safe Withdrawal Rate #34 re Gold: Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now
Three Ingredients Article re Gold: Three Secret Ingredients of the Most Efficient Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Resolve Asset Management White Paper Download Link: Return Stacking: Strategies For Overcoming a Low Return Environment (investresolve.com)
"Buffett's Alpha" White Paper: Buffett’s Alpha (tandfonline.com)
Alexi's article link (last question) re Quadrants and Assets: Structural Diversification for All Seasons - ReSolve Asset Management (investresolve.com)

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Episode 140: More SWAN, The MAR Metric, Fun With Treasury Bonds And Sample Portfolio Reviews As Of December 31, 2021 Jan 02, 2022

In this episode we answer emails from Christer, Craig and Scott. We discuss synthetically modelling SWAN on Portfolio Visualizer, how using the MAR metric (and others) reveals superior performance for risk-parity-style portfolios, how NOT to predict future treasury bond rates in the context of the Golden Butterfly portfolio, and the foolish consistencies and nonsensical ravings of those who attempt such things.
And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly (and a bit of annual) portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional Links:
Comparison of Synthetic SWAN Models: SWAN Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Craig's Article About The MAR Metric: How to Set achievable CAGR & Drawdown targets for stock portfolio (enlightenedstocktrading.com)
Comparison of VWENX and Sample Golden Ratio Portfolios: Backtest VWENX Vs. Golden Ratio Asset Allocations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Additional Sample Leverage Portfolio On M1: Levered Risk Parity Pie | M1 Finance

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Episode 139: Amortization Withdrawal Strategies, Levered Accumulation Portfolios, Growth Funds And MORE COWBELL! Dec 29, 2021

In this episode, we answer emails from Adam, Amit, Jeffrey and Kevin. We discuss alternative theoretical withdrawal strategies and tools to model them, practical considerations for withdrawals, milkshakes, the differences between the sample portfolios and their withdrawal percentages, Torqemada, modeling leveraged accumulation portfolios, the ups and downs of growth funds and value funds, and Kevin's desires for More Cowbell.
Links:
Monte Carlo simulation with a life expectancy withdrawal strategy: Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts
YouTube Tutorial For Retirement Spending Calculator: Tutorial #1: Portfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator - YouTube
Ben Felix Video On Using Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTube
Portfolio Visualizer Simulated Accumulation In Three Portfolios: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Sample M1 Leveraged Portfolio (and others): M1 Pies: Manage and Optimize Your Portfolio Like a Pro (choosefi.com)

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Episode 138: Generous Listeners, Swedish Entanglements, Various And Sundry Constructions And Our Weekly Reviews As Of December 23, 2021 Dec 26, 2021

In this episode we address emails from Alexi, Ron, Niklas, Jody and Brian. We discuss levered portfolios, Spinal Tap, the fabulous generosity of our listeners, currency risk, website data improvements, and options for a 20-something with or without leverage.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
REIT Episodes: Podcast #19 and Podcast #21| Risk Parity Radio
Mega REIT Correlation Matrix: Asset Correlations -- lotsa REITS
Simplify SPYC ETF: SPYC Simplify US Equity PLUS Convexity ETF | Simplify
Alexi's Leveraged Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Alexi's Portfolio Correlation Matrix: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Unicorn Bay Correlation Analyzer: Asset Correlations for Free | Unicorn Bay

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Episode 137: Risk Parity Ingredients, Spurious Trading Systems, Leveraged Intermediate Treasuries And Advertising Dec 22, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Spencer, Hannalore, Keith and Claire. We discuss a new article at Portfolio Charts, leveraged intermediate treasury bonds and their possibilities and implications, and invitations for ads.
Links:
Ingredients Article: Three Secret Ingredients of the Most Efficient Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Bias-Variance Dilemma Episodes: Podcast #49| Risk Parity Radio; Podcast #64| Risk Parity Radio; Podcast #66| Risk Parity Radio
Hannalore's Seeking Alpha Article: TYA: A Better Version Of TLT And My Top Fixed-Income Pick (NASDAQ:TLT) | Seeking Alpha
TYA Fund Page: TYA Simplify Risk Parity Treasury ETF | Simplify
Portfolio Visualizer Analyzer Analysis of TYD: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Keith's Bogleheads Forum Link: Modified versions of HFEA with ITT and Futures / Lifecycle Investing with Modern Portfolio Theory - Bogleheads.org
Keith's Beta Article Link: Betting against Beta (and Gamma) Using Government Bonds - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)

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Episode 136: Pot Roasts, G Funds, More On Intermediate Savings Strategies AND Portfolio Reviews As Of December 17, 2021 Dec 19, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Mark B, Matt, Kevin, Arun and Danny. We discuss GBTC, my idiosyncrasies, the G-Fund in the TSP, SWAN and More Cowbell, the mechanics of using a risk-parity portfolio for intermediate accumulation, a 3 liter bottle of Chianti, and the limitations of the data set in portfolio visualizer.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio and zero in on the diversification benefits of the Risk Parity Ultimate portfolio.
Additional Links:
TSP G-Fund: G Fund composition | Thrift Savings Plan (tsp.gov)
Episode 123 re additional SWAN analysis: Podcast #123 | Risk Parity Radio
Portfolio Charts Article About March 2020 Portfolio Performances: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 135: Legends, Sentence Enhancers, PAXG, Leveraged ETFs and YouTube Tutorials! Dec 15, 2021

In this episode we answer questions from Stephen (Superb Diamond Range), Alan, Chris, Neil, and Esek. We discuss my limitations, the failings of my podcast, the crypto-currency PAXG, using leveraged ETFs for accumulation and the latest in the Risk Parity Radio YouTube Tutorials. Enjoy!
Links:
ChooseFI M1 Levered Risk Parity Portfolio: Experimental RPR Lever | M1 Finance
Introduction to the Accelerated Permanent Portfolio: Episode #8 | Risk Parity Radio
Introduction to the Aggressive Fifty Fifty Portfolio: Episode #10| Risk Parity Radio
Introduction to the Levered Golden Ratio Portfolio: Episode #103 | Risk Parity Radio
New YouTube Tutorial: Tutorial #3: Portfolio Visualizer Asset Allocation Backtester - YouTube

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Episode 134: Golden Ratio And M1, Minimum Meaningful Exposures, Safe Withdrawal Calculations, RPR NFTs And Our Portfolio Reviews As Of December 11, 2021 Dec 11, 2021

In this episode, first off we address emails from Patrick, Frank, Hannelore, Peter, and Thomas and Angela. We discuss allocating the Golden Ratio sample portfolio at M1 Finance, minimum meaningful allocations to gold and treasury bonds, where we find Safe Withdrawal Rate calculations and how to buy the Risk Parity Radio NFTs.
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Additional Links:
M1 Golden Ratio Sample Portfolio: Golden Ratio | M1 Finance
Falling Upward: Falling Upward: A Spirituality for the Two Halves of Life by Richard Rohr | Goodreads
Portfolio Charts SWR Calculator: WITHDRAWAL RATES – Portfolio Charts
Michael Kitces Interview: An Interview With Michael Kitces - Motley Fool Answers | The Motley Fool
Peter's Instructions for destroying the Death Star:
- I put ETH into my Coinbase Wallet (the Coinbase Wallet app is separate from a regular Coinbase account)

- Clicked purchase on the NFT in OpenSea, which provides a QR code

- Scanned the code with the Wallet app, which initiated the multi step process to transfer the ETH to Polygon, this is where the gas charges are paid

- Once the transfer is done there were a couple of more steps between OpenSea and the Wallet app and the purchase was complete

Thomas's Instructions for destroying the Death Star:
1) I went to the Risk Parity Radio NFT openseas page, then activated the google chrome extension Metamask to purchase ETH(polygon). They use Moonpay as the platform to take care of the transaction (they also require a picture of your driver's license and selfie for "security purposes")

2) I purchased 30$ minimum which charges $3.99 for this transaction.

3) My first attempt was flagged on my debit card (Wells Fargo, had to approve Moonpay) Second transaction went through and within 1 minute I could see ETH(polygon) in my Metamask wallet.

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Episode 133: The LifeGoal Risk Parity Funds, Top Drawer Top Hats And Mandelbrot Sets! Dec 08, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Justin, David, Paul, Ted and "Mycontactinfo". We discuss the new LifeGoal risk-parity based funds and other commercial concoctions, my availability for consulting, our awesome audience, dealing with a 457b Top Hat Plan and the theoretical underpinnings of most things in the universe, including financial markets.
Links:
LifeGoal Funds Page: About LifeGoal Investment (lifegoalinvestments.com)
Comparison Analysis of AQRIX: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
IRS Top Hat Plans Page: Non-Governmental 457(b) Deferred Compensation Plans | Internal Revenue Service (irs.gov)
"Misbehavior of Markets" Book: The (Mis)Behavior of Markets by Benoît B. Mandelbrot | Goodreads
YouTube Mandelbrot Set Video: Eye of the Universe - Mandelbrot Fractal Zoom (e1091) (4k 60fps) - YouTube
"More Than You Know" Book: More Than You Know | Columbia University Press
"Risk Savvy" Book: Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions by Gerd Gigerenzer | Goodreads
Propecting Mimetic Fractals: The Fractal Lens - Prospecting Mimetic Fractals

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Episode 132: Oh Mandy! Let's Talk About Taxes In Transition, Portfolio Analysis, Preferred Shares And Setting Withdrawal Rates! Nov 30, 2021

In this Barry-Barry-nice episode, we address an email from "Mandy" about her transition to retirement. We discuss minimizing the taxes with long-term capital gains rates, a proposed NTSX-based portfolio, preferred shares funds and how to think about setting your personal withdrawal rate in a flexible way that matches your actual expenses.
Links:
NTSX-Based Portfolio Analyses: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Article re Preferred Shares Funds: Preferred Stock ETFs: Taking A Closer Look At PFFD, PFFR, PSK | Seeking Alpha
PFFV Fund Page: Variable Rate Preferred ETF (globalxetfs.com)
Risk Parity Radio YouTube Channel: Risk Parity Radio - YouTube

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Episode 131: Jake, YouTube Tutorials, NFT-Mania, A License To Kill Omicron And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of November 26, 2021 Nov 27, 2021

In this episode we celebrate our latest patron Jake, announce our latest YouTube Tutorial, and then get to some emails from Ben, Andy and Keith, where we discuss accumulation portfolios and transitions, Andy's mania for Risk Parity Radio NFTs and what to do about ONL.
Then we finish up with our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio and look at the textbook performance of treasury bonds on Friday.
Additional Links:
New Tutorial on Portfolio Visualizer Backtester: Portfolio Visualizer Ticker Symbol Backtester Tutorial - YouTube
New Crypto Access at Interactive Brokers: Trade Crypto for Less Coin | Interactive Brokers LLC
Risk Parity Radio NFTs at Opensea!: Risk Parity Radio - Collection | OpenSea

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Episode 130: Superb Portfolio Construction, Rebalancing With Leverage, NFTs And Giving Tuesday Nov 24, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Stephen, James, Randy and David. We address a proposed 70/20/10 portfolio construction, rebalancing UPRO/TMF portfolios, portfolio constructions with trading strategies, and potential future rants.
Then we discuss our NFT experiment, what you might consider for Giving Tuesday and Lessons and Carols.
Links:
Stephen's Interview of Me: ‎Superb Diamond Range: Frank Vasquez of Risk Parity Radio (The Financial Series) | #49 | Risk Parity Investing | podcast | superb diamond range on Apple Podcasts
Gold Episodes: Podcast #12 and Podcast #40| Risk Parity Radio
Portfolio Charts Portfolio Analyzer: MY PORTFOLIO – Portfolio Charts
Randy's website: Dual Momentum Systems
Bias-Variance Dilemma Episode: Podcast #49| Risk Parity Radio
Money For The Rest Of Us BITO Episode: Should You Invest in a Bitcoin ETF? | Money For The Rest of Us
Polygon Network Links: Polygon
Father McKenna Center Giving: Donate - Father McKenna Center
Father McKenna Center Lessons and Carols Program: Lessons and Carols - Father McKenna Center

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Episode 129: I-Bonds v. TIPS, Tumors, Advice From Uncle Frank And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of November 19, 2021 Nov 20, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Anderson, Brad, David, Ana and Christy. We discuss I-bonds vs. TIPS, John Kimble, Portfolio Builder, Steve Van Metre and new-fangled ETFs, and Uncle Frank's advice to newer investors. Then we finish up with our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Additional Links:
I-Bonds vs. TIPS Article: I Bonds vs. TIPS: What’s the best bet for inflation protection? | Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (tipswatch.com)
I-Bonds Episode: Podcast Episode #93 | Risk Parity Radio
One of the TIPS Episodes: Podcast Episode #78| Risk Parity Radio
Portfolio Builder Sensational Video From April 2020: Greatest Stock Crash In History Ahead Build This Portfolio ASAP - YouTube
Meb Faber Podcast Re Levered Risk-Parity Style Portfolios (re-labelled "Return Stacking"): Episode #368: Rodrigo Gordillo & Corey Hoffstein, “You Now Get To Have Your Beta Cake While Eating Your Alpha Too" - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog

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Episode 128: Our Monthly RANT Putting The Hammer Down On A Report From The Death Star! Nov 16, 2021

In this episode we, ahem, "address" a recent attempt by Morningstar to predict the future returns and performance of markets for the next 30-40 years using a bag of crystal balls and their conclusions about safe withdrawal rates.
Links:
The Report in Question: State-of-retirement-income.pdf (morningstar.com)
The Data They Should Have Been Using: Diversification_Landscape_033021v2.pdf (morningstar.com)
The Track Record Of These Methodologies According To Morningstar: Your Forecasts for Stock and Bond Returns (2011)| Morningstar
And a nice tax advisor: The FI Tax Guy (Sean Mullaney)– Tax, Financial Independence, and Fun

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Episode 127: More Crystal Balls, New-Fangled Hedge Funds, Portfoliovisualizer And More! Nov 10, 2021

In this email we answer emails from John, Gary, Chuck, PJ, Dave and Brandon. We discuss crystal-ball-laden catastrophes, modern alternative asset fund opportunities, help with the Portfolio Visualizer calculators, my recent absence, my lack of written output, Roth 401k and IRAs.
Links:
Big Ern Sequence of Return Series #34 and Comments: Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now
Episode 40 re Gold: Podcast #40 | Risk Parity Radio
Episode 70 re CAPEd Crystal Balls: Podcast #70 | Risk Parity Radio
Gary's Links to Private Alternative Asset Funds: Hedonova and https://orthogonalglobal.com
Chuck's Older Fund Identifications for Portfolio Visualizer: . NAESX - Small Cap; VFITX - Intermediate Treasuries; VUSTX - Long Term Treasuries; VFINX - S&P 500; and ^gold - Gold. Sector Funds: FSUTX - Utilities; FSRBX - Banks; FIDSX - Financial Services; FRESX - REIT; FSPHX - Healthcare; FIREX - Intl. Reit; FSDPX - Materials; FCYIX - Industrials; FSENX -Energy; FDFAX - Consumer Staples; FSCPX - Consumer Discretionary; and FSPTX - Tech.
Portfolio Visualizer Asset Backtester: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 126: Instructing A Young Paduwan Learner, The Sloop JonB, Value Stock Geek And Our Portfolio Reviews As Of November 5, 2021 Nov 06, 2021

In this episode we answer a trifecta of questions from Christopher and emails from JonB and Value Stock Geek. We discuss accumulation, dollar-cost averaging, a Bridgewater paper, calculating withdrawals from the sample portfolios and the Weird Portfolio.
And then we go to our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
And then we crawl back in the morass of our NFT experiment.
Additional links:
Bridgewater Paper from Episode 49: 2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc (granicus.com)
Kitces Four Phases of Investing Article: The Four Phases Of Saving For Retirement (kitces.com)
Bogleheads Tool and Data: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project] - Page 25 - Bogleheads.org
Value Stock Geek Portfolio: The Weird Portfolio. How To Avoid Bubbles, Limit Drawdowns… | by Value Stock Geek
Opensea Polygon Transfer Instructions/Links: How do I find my funds on Polygon? – OpenSea
EconoMe Conference: EconoMe Conference - Nov 13th & 14th, 2021

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Episode 125: Levered Portfolios, Alternative Funds And Investments And More On The NFTs Nov 04, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Paul, Mike, Brett, Yarrow and Peter. We discuss a Levered All Seasons Portfolio, an investment in BIP, closed-end funds and issues with GAA. We also address Peter's issues with trying to buy a Risk Parity Radio NFT.
Links:
Optimized Portfolio Article about the Levered All Seasons: Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio Review, ETF's, & Leverage (optimizedportfolio.com)
Paul's Levered All Weather M1 Pie: Paul's Portfolio | M1 Finance
Correlation Analysis for BIP: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Golden Ratio Portfolio using BIP: BGR Portfolio With BIP (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Correlation Analysis for GAA Components: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
GAA vs. Golden Butterfly and Golden Ratio: https://tinyurl.com/y4fvrfmp

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Episode 124: Emails, Risk Parity Radio NFTs (!) and Portfolio Reviews As Of October 29, 2021 Oct 31, 2021

In this episode we start by answering emails from Melanie, David, Jeffrey and Richard about Schwab ETF alternatives, Mary Mary, the financial podcasts I listen to, sector and other stock funds in the context of the Holy Grail and Macro-Allocation Principles, leveraged bond funds and the whys of the bonds we use in the sample portfolios. One additional excellent personal finance podcast I neglected to mention is The Earn & Invest Podcast (earnandinvest.com) with Doc G.
Then we roll out some Risk Parity Radio NFTs (non-fungible tokens), which you may acquire through the support page of the website at Support | Risk Parity Radio or here: Risk Parity Radio - Collection | OpenSeas
After that we go to our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Additional links:
Flight to Safety Research Paper About Treasuries: delivery.php (ssrn.com)
Our Three Principles of Portfolio Construction: Episode 7 | Risk Parity Radio
REIT Funds Episodes: Episode 19 | Risk Parity Radio and Episode 21 | Risk Parity Radio
Utilities Funds Episode: Episode 27 | Risk Parity Radio
Preferred Shares Fund Episode: Episode 9 | Risk Parity Radio

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Episode 123: Let's Talk Risk-Reward Metrics, Being WRONG, SWAN and NTSX Oct 27, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Visitor 3050, Daniel, Chet, Jack, Jeff and Marc. We discuss risk-reward metrics and where to find them, corrections to modelling SWAN, using asset class analyzers, "bracketed rebalancing", adding gold to a portfolio and the bond breakdown of NTSX.
Links:
Portfoliocharts Risk and Return Analyzer: RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts
Daniel's Portfoliovisualizer Analysis of SWAN: SWAN Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
SWAN compared with a 45/80 portfolio: Revised SWAN Backtest Portfolio (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Optimized Portfolio Article re SWAN: SWAN - A Review of the Amplify BlackSwan ETF for Downturns (optimizedportfolio.com)
Optimized Portfolio Article re NTSX: NTSX ETF Review - WisdomTree U.S. Efficient Core ETF (90/60) (optimizedportfolio.com)

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Episode 122: Here We Go Once Again With The Emails! Oct 20, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from EJ, J Allen, Paul, Hoarseman, Larry and Anderson. We discuss bitcoin funds, the Callan Periodic Table, transitioning your portfolio to decumulation, I-bonds, a momentum strategy and becoming a financial planner/advisor.
Links:
Updated Kiplinger article re (now 12) crypto-currency funds: 12 Bitcoin ETFs and Cryptocurrency Funds You Should Know | Kiplinger
Larry's Link Re Momentum Strategy: Accelerating Dual Momentum Investing – engineered portfolio
Millionaires Unveiled Podcast Episode featuring a Financial Advisor: 208: Net Worth of 5M – 2.5M in Tesla Stock (millionairesunveiled.com)
Money Guy Episode re Choosing Financial Advisors: How and When to Hire a Financial Advisor! - YouTube
Michael Kitces Podcast For Financial Advisors: About the Financial Advisor Success Podcast by Michael Kitces

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Episode 121: We're BACK With Listener Emails And Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of October 15, 2021 Oct 17, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Julie, Pat, Craig, Chris and Matt, in which we discuss the Retirement Spending Calculator at Portfoliocharts, leveraged portfolios and ETFs in taxable and tax-protected accounts, crypto-fund alternatives, risk parity research and articles, and asset location in Roth vs. taxable.
And THEN And then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Additional Links:
The Retirement Spending Calculator Tutorial is here (added November 2): Retirement Spending Calculator Tutorial - YouTube
Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts
ChooseFI/M1 Experimental Risk Parity Portfolio: M1 Pies: Manage and Optimize Your Portfolio Like a Pro (choosefi.com)
Kiplinger Article Re 11 Crypto-Funds: 11 Bitcoin ETFs and Cryptocurrency Funds You Should Know | Kiplinger
Episode 5 and Links to Articles: Podcast 5| Risk Parity Radio
Episode 7 and Links to Videos: Podcast 7| Risk Parity Radio
AQR Risk Parity Article: Understanding Risk Parity (aqr.com)
Bridgewater Site: Research & Insights — Bridgewater Associates
Bonus Panagora Article from earlier episode: PanAgora-Risk-Parity-Portfolios-Efficient-Portfolios-Through-True-Diversification.pdf
Episode 93 re I-bonds: Podcast 93 | Risk Parity Radio
Treasury Direct Website: Individual - Buying Series I Savings Bonds (treasurydirect.gov)

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Episode 120: A Small RANT And A Cauldron Of Emails Featuring Cockroaches Sep 15, 2021

In this episode we address the seemingly intentional friction imposed by the financial services industry preventing us from moving our own retirement accounts around. Then we tackle emails from Jay, Andrew, Dave (x2) and Justin about Vanguard funds, Mel Brooks and quadruple-witching days, cockroach portfolios and the bias-variance dilemma, and modelling low-volatility funds.
Partial list of useful Vanguard ETFs:
Total Market: VTI
Large Cap Growth Stocks: VUG
Small Cap Value Stocks: VIOV or VBR
REITs: VNQ and VNQI (International)
Utilities: VPU
Long-Term Treasury Bonds: VGLT and EDV (extended duration)
Intermediate-Term Treasury Bonds: VGIT
Short-Term Treasury Bonds: VGSH
There do not appear to be any good Vanguard fund options for investing in gold, commodities, preferred shares, volatility, crypto-currency-related assets or leveraged stock and bond funds.
Morningstar Long View Podcast with Rick Bookstaber: Rick Bookstaber: Avoiding Complexity Is 'Risk 101' | Morningstar
Analysis of commodities fund COM: Podcast 99| Risk Parity Radio
Risk vs. Uncertainty Discussions: Podcast 64| Risk Parity Radio and Podcast 66| Risk Parity Radio
The Bias-Variance Dilemma: Podcast 49| Risk Parity Radio

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Episode 119: Emails, The Iowa Corn Song And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of September 10, 2021 Sep 12, 2021

In this episode we answer questions from Joel, Javen, Bradley and Brian. We discuss leveraged portfolios, GOLD, the BTAL episode, accumulation portfolios, brokerage comparisons and how we calculate the returns on our sample portfolios.
And THEN And then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Additional links:
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Joel's Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Bonus "Not an Improvement" Video Clip from Joel: YARN | that's not an improvement | Homestar Runner Strong Bad Trogdor | Video clips by quotes | f27b57a5 | 紗
Portfolio Charts Portfolios Page: Portfolios – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 118: An Analysis Of SWAN, The "Black Swan" ETF Sep 08, 2021

In this episode we analyze the Amplify Black Swan Growth & Treasury Core ETF, ticker symbol SWAN, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Additional Links:
SWAN FAQ: Amplify_SWAN_faqs.pdf (amplifyetfs.com)
SWAN Prospectus: https://www.amplifyetfs.com/Data/Sites/6/media/docs/swanpartf.htm
SWAN Review Article: SWAN - A Review of the Amplify BlackSwan ETF for Downturns (optimizedportfolio.com)
Analysis of Synthetic SWAN vs Levered Golden Ratio Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Analysis of Synthetic SWAN vs. SWAN-based Levered All Weather Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
The NTSX Episodes are Episodes 59 and 61.
RPR Sample Portfolios: Portfolios Page | Risk Parity Radio

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Episode 117: Long-Term Treasury Bond Funds, Ray Dalio vs. Bruce Lee And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of September 3, 2021 Sep 04, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Bob, Kelly, Jack and David. We discuss long term treasury bond and STRIPS funds, Iowa and the Field of Dreams, a Ray Dalio article about bonds from March and a missing link.
And then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Ray Dalio Article Link: Why in the World Would You Own Bonds When... (bridgewater.com)

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Episode 116: Emails, Stock-Bond Correlations, Easy Chairs And More! Sep 01, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Ralph, Justin, Rikki, Dan, Anderson and Phil. We address, dividends, bonds vs. bond funds, portfolio visualizer vs. portfolio charts, a PIMCO bonds correlations paper, ideas from Dan, and the Hedgefundie portfolio (again).
Links:
The PIMCO Stock-Bond Correlation Paper: displaydocument.ashx (pimco.fi)
Dan's Blog: KEEP INVESTING $IMPLE, $TUPID! | But not simpler than it needs to be! (keepinvestingsimplestupid.com)
Experimental Leverage Risk-Parity Portfolio At ChooseFI/M1: M1 Pies: Manage and Optimize Your Portfolio Like a Pro (choosefi.com)

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Episode 115: Dr. Seuss, Mystery Email Reader And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of August 27, 2021 Aug 29, 2021

In this episode we answer four emails from Dave, or Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate if you prefer. We address foolish consistencies and conflicts of interest, the reason we have sample portfolios, interest rate hysteria and Vanguard's VPGDX fund.
And then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Additional Links:
Contents of VPGDX: VPGDX - Vanguard Managed Allocation Fund | Vanguard
Analysis if VPGDX vs. Golden Butterfly vs. Golden Ratio: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 114: An Analysis Of Anti-Beta Fund BTAL Aug 24, 2021

In this episode we analyze the AGFiQ US Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund ETF, ticker symbol BTAL, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
This fund analysis was suggested/requested by listener Javen S.
Additional Links:
BTAL Fact Sheet: AGFiQ U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund - - Fund Profile
BTAL Prospectus: AGFiQ Annual Prospectus
BTAL Correlation Matrix: Asset Correlations BTAL (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Backtest Golden Butterfly Portfolio Example: Backtest GB Portfolios (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Backtest Golden Ratio Portfolio Example: Backtest GR Portfolios (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Backtest Leveraged Portfolios Examples:
tinyurl.com/8t62zjhk

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Episode 113: You Don't Want To Lose That Number Or Miss The Answers To These Emails Aug 17, 2021

In this episode we answer questions from Greg, David, Chris, Rikki and John-Michael. We discuss the "Weird Portfolio", do a Vanguard Life-Strategy Funds comparison, using a risk-parity style portfolio for intermediate needs, alternative allocations and related tax issues, treasury bonds, emerging markets funds and tax-advantaged transactions, and the Experimental Risk Parity Lever portfolio at ChooseFI and M1.
Links:
Weird Portfolio Article: The Weird Portfolio. How To Avoid Bubbles, Limit Drawdowns… | by Value Stock Geek
Weird Portfolio vs. Golden Butterfly vs. Golden Ratio comparison: Backtest Weird Portfolio
Vanguard Moderate Life Strategy vs. Golden Butterfly vs. Golden Ratio comparison: Backtest Vanguard Moderate Life Strategy
Episode 27 re Utility Funds: Podcast 27
Episode 9 re Preferred Shares Fund PFF: Podcast 9
Episode 31 re RPAR: Podcast 31
Optimized Portfolios Article re Leveraged ETFs: What Is a Leveraged ETF . . .?
Experimental Risk Parity Lever M1 P

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Episode 112: A Field Of Emails And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of August 13, 2021 Aug 14, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Bob, Zahir, Melanie, Pat and Rob. We address sound effects, strange voices, analyzing leveraged investments, test-driving risk-parity portfolios, selling bad investments in individual stocks, small-cap value stock investments over time and balancing safe/perpetual withdrawal rates vs. projected drawdowns.
Then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Additional Links:
Episode 111 Notes Page: Podcast Episode 111 | Risk Parity Radio
Portfolio Charts Golden Butterfly Analysis: Golden Butterfly – Portfolio Charts
Risk Parity Ultimate Restructuring Episode And Analysis Notes: Podcast Episode 109 | Risk Parity Radio

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Episode 111: Fill It To The Rim With Answers To The Most Excellent Emails! Aug 12, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Keith, Jeffrey, Evan, Brendan, Kelly and Paul. We address Kelly Criterion and other risk/reward considerations (Sharpe and Sortino ratios), crystal balls, the "Possibility Effect" cognitive bias and a base-rate analysis of the Golden Butterfly portfolio, issues with IVOL, trading ETFs at Vanguard, the perpetual withdrawal rate, expense ratios and bucket strategies, basic retirement considerations, issues with QYLD and an examination of Big Ern's leveraged retirement portfolios.
It's another barn burner! Real Wrath of God type stuff!
Links:
Kelly Criterion article: Leverage and The Line Between Aggressive and Crazy (rhsfinancial.com)
Golden Butterfly analysis with Heat Map: Golden Butterfly – Portfolio Charts
Episode 89 re QYLD: Podcast Episode 89 | Risk Parity Radio
Big Ern Article Re Leveraged Portfolios: Lower risk through leverage – Early Retirement Now
Big Ern Article Re Gold In Portfolios: Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now
Episode 40 Re Gold: Podcast Episode 40 | Risk Parity Radio
Portfolio Analysis Comparison Of Big Ern Leveraged Portfolio With And Without Gold: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
The SWAN ETF: SWAN - BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF - Amplify ETFs

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Episode 110: Back In The Easy Chair With An Email Cornucopia Aug 10, 2021

In this all-email extravaganza we address emails from Spencer, Nick, Bob, Randy, Falco, Kevin, and Daniel. We address the Hedgefundie Portfolio (again!), an article about a 50/50 stock/10-year treasury reference portfolio, BigErn's research about gold (again!), CAPEd and other common crystal balls and the erroneously implied mean-reversion assumption, gold etfs, using cash as a short-term risk-reducer, implementing the Golden Ratio in the Netherlands, a missing link from Episode 7 and implementing the Risk Parity Ultimate at M1 finance. Whew!
And we are still a month behind on the emails.
Referenced links:
Episode 82 re the Hedgefundie portfolio: Podcast Episode 82| Risk Parity Radio
Lengthy Hedgefundie Portfolio Article: HEDGEFUNDIE's Excellent Adventure (UPRO/TMF) - A Summary (optimizedportfolio.com)
Article re 50/50 S&P/10-year treasury reference portfolio: The Risk Parity Gorilla In The Room | AlphaWeek (alpha-week.com)
50/50 S&P/10-year treasury vs. Golden Ratio backtest: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
BigErn Gold Article: Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now
Episode 40 re Gold: Podcast Episode 40 | Risk Parity Radio
Dragon Portfolio Paper with 100-year Analysis: https://artemiscm.docsend.com/view/taygkbn
Next Level Life You Tube Video on Gold: Why Are Gold Portfolios So Dependable? - YouTube
Episode 70 re CAPE Ratio: Podcast Episode 70 | Risk Parity Radio
Ben Felix Episode re CAPE Ratio: RR #146 - Do Expected Stock Returns Wear a CAPE? - YouTube
Ben Felix Episode re Expected Returns: RR #151 - Professor Brad Cornell: A Skeptic’s Look at the Cross Section of Expected Returns - YouTube

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Episode 109: Annual Rebalancings And Once Again With The Emails Jul 21, 2021

In this episode we discuss the rebalancings of four of the Sample Portfolios at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio, which occurred on July 21, 2021. We also adjusted the allocations of the Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio to make it more diverse.
And we answer emails from Rob and Colin to boot, about considerations in making portfolio adjustments and what to do if you end up with too much retirement money.
And celebrate crossing 100,000 downloads!
Links:
Comparison of Original Risk Parity Ultimate and New Risk Parity Ultimate: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Correlation Matrix for New Risk Parity Ultimate: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 108: More Emails, Rebalancing, Crystal Ball Follies And Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of July 16, 2021 Jul 18, 2021

In this episode we start by addressing emails from Eric, Gareth, Jeff and Randy about transitioning with a high savings rate, data sources at portfoliovisualizer and portfoliocharts, Chinese A shares ETFs, and capital gains tax issues. Then we do our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
After that we have some fun smashing some crystal balls discussed in a CNBC article and talk about more rebalancing. Yeah, baby, yeah!
Links:
Portfolio Visualizer Data Sources: Frequently Asked Questions (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Charts Data Sources: Search Results for “data sources” – Portfolio Charts
KBA Correlation Analysis: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
CNBC Article re Crystal Ball Failures: The mystifying bond market behavior could last all summer (cnbc.com)
Optimized Rebalancing Article: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)

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Episode 107: Our Monthly RANT About Financial Mis-wisdom And Once Again With The Emails Jul 14, 2021

In this episode we discuss an investigation and penalties assessed against TIAA for malfeasance in managing client accounts and then we answer emails from Adam, Brian, Andy, and Bennie. We discuss short-term draw-down strategies, volatility and correlation theory, margin accounts and leverage funds, and automated investing.
RANT subject article: TIAA to Pay $97M for Pressuring Investors Into Rollovers | ThinkAdvisor
And here is the rest of the text of Brian's email:
"Below is a simple numbers example I created at the time that allowed it to click for me, I share it in case there are others like me that have a hard time allowing the words of others dissuade them from the math that's going on in their head.

It might be helpful because it holds return and volatility constant to isolate the impacts of correlation. Cheers.

The return of Asset A has four observations: -10%, +30%, +15%, +5%

If we drop this into a spreadsheet it has an average return of +10% and a ~17% standard deviation.

Asset B and C are exactly the same as Asset A in all ways, with the only difference being the order of their returns.

Asset B = +30%, -10%, +5%, +15%
Asset C = +15%, + 5%, +30%, -10%

If you didn't immediately notice, when you drop these into a spreadsheet you will see that Asset A & B have a -1 correlation, and Asset A & C have a 0 correlation."

Now where it gets interesting is suppose over these four periods you had two portfolios, one that was 50/50 A&B and another that was 50/50 A&C. Calculate the average return and standard deviation for these two portfolios.

You'll see that both have a +10% average return just like the original assets, however that standard deviation goes to zero for the negatively correlated assets and only drops ~5 points for the zero correlated assets."

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Episode 106: Here We Go Once Again With The Emails And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 9, 2021 Jul 11, 2021

In this episode, we answer emails from Jon, Toby, Dale and Andrew about intermediate portfolios, adjustments to gold in portfolios, value investing vs. broader diversification, market timing, financial coaching and how to incorporate I-Bonds.
Then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
And we drop a few crystal balls on the pavement of reality and see what happens.
Link to Choose FI Sample Portfolios Page: M1 Pies: Manage and Optimize Your Portfolio Like a Pro (choosefi.com)

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Episode 105: I Got Your Sequence Of Return Risk Right Here! Jul 07, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Peter, Darren and Paddi about sequence of return risk of Risk Parity style portfolios versus cash-drag portfolios, correlations among U.K. and European ETFs, gilts, Vanguard ISA selections, U.S. versus global portfolios, glide paths, the Macro-Allocation principle, valuing real estate in a retirement portfolio, an Amex privileged assets account, the Golden Ratio portfolio and gold ETFs.
And the Atlanta Highway.
Links:
Portfolio Charts Heat Map: HEAT MAP – Portfolio Charts
Unicorn Bay Correlation Analyzer That Works With UCITS ETFs: Asset Correlations for Free | Unicorn Bay

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Episode 104: More Emails And Our Weekly and Monthly Portfolio Reviews As Of July 2, 2021 Jul 04, 2021

In this episode we answer emails form Eric, Chas, Rick, Mike and Grant about Canadian stuff, using margin, transition timing, and inverse stock funds. And THEN we do our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the SEVEN sample portfolios at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.
Additional links:
Portfolio Charts Fund Finder: FUND FINDER – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts
Interview of Me on a Scottish podcast: ‎Superb Diamond Range: Frank Vasquez of Risk Parity Radio (The Financial Series) | #49 | Risk Parity Investing | podcast | superb diamond range on Apple Podcasts

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Episode 103: Introducing The Levered Golden Ratio Sample Portfolio! Jul 01, 2021

In this episode we introduce a new sample portfolio on our portfolios page at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. The Levered Golden Ratio is a leveraged portfolio that contains stocks, treasury bonds, gold, a REIT, a volatility fund and a smidgen of crypto-related funds. It will be the seventh sample risk-parity style portfolio.
Additional Links:
Portfolio Visualizer Backtest: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Correlation Matrix: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Seeking Alpha Article Re Risk Parity Portfolios with NTSX and SWAN: Risk Parity Portfolio: Double-Digit Annual Returns, Inflation and Recession-Proof | Seeking Alpha

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Episode 102: Here We Go Once Again With The Emails And A Critique Of A Misguided Article Jun 29, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Andrew and Karen, Nick, Chris and Brandon. We discuss ETF expenses, an article about treasuries that misuses data in favor of a Crystal Ball, the Holy Grail principle, vectors and volatility, rebalancing and Vanguard mutual funds.
Here are the links:
Referenced Article: iShares ETF TLT: No Reason To Buy Long-Term Treasuries At Rock-Bottom Yields | Seeking Alpha
2021 Correlation Analysis of TLT, SPY and VIOV: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Bond Convexity Article: High Profits at Low Rates: The Benefits of Bond Convexity – Portfolio Charts
Ray Dalio Explains the Holy Grail Principle: Ray Dalio breaks down his "Holy Grail" - YouTube
Michael Kitces Optimized Rebalancing: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)

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Episode 101: Celebrating Matthew G, Emails And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of June 25, 2021 Jun 27, 2021

In this episode we thank Mathew G for his support, answer emails from EJ, Greg, Nathan, Scott and David and do our weekly portfolio reviews of the sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. We discuss EDV, alternatives to gold in the Golden Butterfly, my investing history, accumulation portfolios and the portfolio shift at retirement.
Errata: I said "1.5%" when I meant "1.5 times" in the discussion of EDV and TLT and the insurance ETF mentioned is KBWP.
Additional links:
The Father McKenna Center: Home - Father McKenna Center
Sample Portfolios at Portfolio Charts: Portfolios – Portfolio Charts
Michael Kitces Phases of Investing Article: The Four Phases Of Saving For Retirement (kitces.com)
Morningstar Diversification Landscape Report: Diversification_Landscape_033021v2.pdf (morningstar.com)

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Episode 100: It's A Crushed-Fresh Stone-Solid Wicked-Decent Email Blast! Jun 24, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Randy, Mike, Ed, Javen, Boone, Jamie and Glenn. We address the sample portfolio distribution rules, long-term treasury bonds and crystal balls, a proposed portfolio, the ETF BTAL, rebalancing rules, volatility funds and cheaper alternatives to TLT.
Extra-added bonus link: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)

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Episode 99: An Analysis Of The Commodities ETF "COM" Jun 22, 2021

In this episode we analyze the Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF, ticker symbol COM, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Additional Links:
COM Fact Sheet: COM-Fact-Sheet.pdf (direxion.com)
COM Summary Prospectus: Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF (onlineprospectus.net)
COM Correlation Matrix: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
COM Comparison Backtests: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 98: Bow To Your Sensei With Some More Emails And The Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of June 18, 2021 Jun 20, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from JB, Brian E, Beat, Lauren, PD and Brad about a TSP conundrum, data for back-testing, the Dragon Portfolio, bowing to your sensei, maximizing withdrawals and using risk parity-style portfolios for intermediate goals. Then we proceed with our weekly portfolio reviews of the sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios Page| Risk Parity Radio
Additional links:
Big Ern's Google Data Sheet: EarlyRetirementNow SWR Toolbox v2.0 - save your own copy before editing! - Google Sheets
DFA Matrix Book (2016): DFA-matrix_book_us_2016.pdf (millswealthadvisors.com)
Meb Faber podcast with Chris Cole: Episode #317: Chris Cole, Artemis Capital Management, “You Want To Diversify Based On How Assets Perform In Different Market Regimes” | Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Portfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 97: Bill Bengen, ChooseFI Portfolios And Once Again With The Emails! Jun 16, 2021

In this episode we address emails from Matt, Craig, Drew, Jeff, and Bill about Homestar Runner sound clips, ETF expense ratios, the psychology of decumulation, portfolio visualizer tools, and my limitations. We also discuss a recent interview of Bill Bengen and the new portfolios page at ChooseFI.
Links:
Investopedia Article re ETF fees: How Are ETF Fees Deducted? (investopedia.com)
FI Show Interview of Bill Bengen: How the 4% Rule is Changing | Bill Bengen - The FI Show
ChooseFI M1 Portfolios Page: M1 Pies: Manage and Optimize Your Portfolio Like a Pro (choosefi.com)

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Episode 96: Once Again With All Kinds Of Emails And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of June 11, 2021 Jun 13, 2021

In this episode, we answer emails from Erin, Eric, Matt, Davis, Brian, UK, Peter, and Gregory. We discuss half-way-there portfolios and Canadian TV, the Pinwheel Portfolio (briefly), when it makes sense to have multiple portfolios, Millennial intermediate investment strategies, statistical formulas and cash drags, FNBGX, process issues with retirement portfolios, leveraged funds, gold, international equities, portfoliocharts and limit orders. Yeah, Baby, Yeah!
And then we proceed to our weekly reviews of the six sample risk-parity style portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Additional links:
Erin's Canadian-Focused Asset Correlation Analysis: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
The Pinwheel Portfolio: Pinwheel Portfolio – Portfolio Charts
Episode 94 with NTSX portfolios: Podcast Episode 94 | Risk Parity Radio
Portfolio Visualizer FAQ/Methodologies: Frequently Asked Questions (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Retirement Drawdown/Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts
Hot off the Interwebs! Me on the Superb Diamond Range Podcast: ‎Superb Diamond Range: Frank Vasquez of Risk Parity Radio (The Financial Series) | #49 | Risk Parity Investing | podcast | superb diamond range on Apple Podcasts

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Episode 95: June RANT About Financial Mis-Wisdom And Yes, More Emails! Jun 10, 2021

In this episode we address the Insidious and Insipid Propaganda Campaign of "National Annuity Awareness Month" that is currently plaguing us with coloring books and stickers, among other obscenities. And then we address emails from Leah (x2), Brian, Tony, Jeffrey and Steven about REITs and money market funds in the Golden Ratio portfolio, leveraged fund portfolios, dynamic asset allocation, the etf TAIL and Strongbad.
Links:
Dynamic Asset Allocation article: Dynamic Asset Allocation Definition (investopedia.com)
Episodes Regarding the Bias-Variance Tradeoff (or Dilemma) and Risk vs. Uncertainty:
Podcast Episode 49 | Risk Parity Radio
Podcast Episode 66 | Risk Parity Radio
Podcast Episode 64 | Risk Parity Radio
Chocolate Vinegar Cake Episode: Podcast Episode 16 | Risk Parity Radio

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Episode 94: Listener Portfolios, Leverage And Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of June 4, 2021 Jun 06, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Richard, Kyle, Chris and two Brians. We discuss Richard's portfolio, using NTSX for smaller amounts of leverage, a 90% stock portfolio, PFFD vs. PFF and a TIPs redux. After that we proceed to our weekly reviews of the six sample risk-parity style portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Additional Links:
Richard's Portfolio vs. Modified Golden Ratio Analysis: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
NTSX Sample Portfolios: NTSX Portfolios (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Efficient Frontier Calculator: Efficient Frontier Forecast (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Article About PFFD: Preferred Stock ETFs: Taking A Closer Look At PFFD, PFFR, PSK | Seeking Alpha

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Episode 93: I Scream For I-Bonds! And A Few, Shall We Say, Emails! Jun 02, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Bastian, Patrice, Jeff and Keith, about investing in Sweden and currency issues, Fundrise, a troublesome annuity product in a 403b and a managed futures reference. Then we proceed with an analysis of I-bonds from the U.S. Government using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Links:
Portfolio Charts Fund Finder: FUND FINDER – Portfolio Charts
Meb Faber Podcast #225: Episode #225: Eric Crittenden, Standpoint Asset Management, “I Enjoy Trying To Win A Marathon Rather Than Winning Sprints” | Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog
Treasury Direct I-Bonds In Depth: Individual - Series I Savings Bonds (treasurydirect.gov)
Treasury Direct I-Bonds FAQ: Individual - Series I Savings Bonds FAQs (treasurydirect.gov)

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Episode 92: Bonus! An Announcement And Another Email Extravaganza! May 31, 2021

In this episode I make an announcement about my willingness to do financial coaching and address emails from Randy, Kristen, Freya, Kyu, TK, Davis, Robyn and Iveta. We discuss UPRO, my quirky sense of humor, commodities funds, safe and perpetual withdrawal rates, gliding into retirement with a Fortress of Solitude, multi-factor ETFs, All Seasons portfolio as an emergency fund and compared with VASIX, and my limitations (on guests).
Links:
UPRO Holdings: ProShares UltraPro S&P500 | UPRO | Daily Holdings | ProShares ETFs
Portfolio Charts Fund Finder: FUND FINDER – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Golden Butterfly Analysis: Golden Butterfly – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts 60/40 Analysis: Classic 60-40 – Portfolio Charts
VASIX vs. All Seasons Analysis: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
John Goodman -- Gambler -- "Fortress of Solitude" Speech: The Fortress of Solitude Position (John Goodman in The Gambler) - YouTube

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Episode 91: Extraordinary Emails And The Madness Of Our Portfolio Reviews As Of May 28, 2021 May 29, 2021

In this episode we answer questions from Rune, Patrice, Franklin and Jeff about coasting in to retirement, the key differences between 100% equity and risk-parity style portfolios, fun with statistical metrics, adjusting a high-income high-equity portfolio situation in transition to retirement, leveraged funds and converting company stock to index funds.
And after all that, we do our weekly and monthly reviews of the six sample risk-parity style portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Additional links:
Sharpe Ratio: Sharpe Ratio Definition (investopedia.com)
Portfolio Charts Golden Butterfly Example Of Tight Variance: Golden Butterfly – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Visualizer Asset Correlation Calculator (Covariance): Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
How NOT To Invest: Podcast 9| Risk Parity Radio

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Episode 90: Here We Go Once Again With The Emails! Whoa! May 27, 2021

In this episode we answer emails from Melissa, Nick, Don, Matt H (x2), Andrew (x2) and Keith. We dive into short-term correlations, agreements with Big Ern on ultra-conservative portfolios, Fractal vs Gaussian mathematics (oh, boy!), taunting Wealthfront a second time, and I-bonds preview, leveraged etf portfolios, VBR vs. VIOV, M1 pies, what's going on with Gamestop in VIOV and the Fama-French Three-Factor Model. Are you ready for this?
Links:
Sample Portfolios Page: Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Rational Reminder Podcast #151: The Rational Reminder Podcast: Professor Brad Cornell: A Skeptic’s Look at the Cross Section of Expected Returns (EP.151) (libsyn.com)
Optimized Portfolios Site: Leverage | Optimized Portfolio
Methodologies for S&P Style Factors and Funds: S&P Methodologies Paper
Intro to Fama-French Three-Factor Model: Fama and French Three Factor Model (investopedia.com)

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Episode 89: An Analysis of the Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) May 25, 2021

In this episode we analyze QYLD, the Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Additional links:
QYLD Fact Sheet: QYLD-factsheet.pdf (globalxetfs.com)
QYLD Summary Prospectus: Global X ETFs
QYLD Correlation Analysis: QYLD Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
QYLD Comparison Backtest in Golden Butterfly: QYLD Backtest (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 88: Here We Go Once Again With The Emails! And Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of May 21, 2021 May 22, 2021

In this episode we answer questions from Jamie, Zach, Keith, Ian, Aldo and Brad. We discuss asset allocations in Roths vs. Traditional, the Risk Parity Radio logo, the virtues of long term treasury bonds, building your stock allocation, doing risk parity from Switzerland and short-term (daily) correlations.
Then we move to our weekly portfolio reviews of the sample portfolios you can find at The Risk Parity Radio Portfolios Page
Links:
Portfolio Charts New Fund Finder: FUND FINDER – Portfolio Charts
Optimized Portfolio M1 Selections: "m1" | Optimized Portfolio

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Episode 87: Another All-Email Extravaganza! Alles Klar Herr Kommissar! May 19, 2021

In this episode we answer questions from Falco, Tim, Jeff, Adam, Phil, "Steve" and Nick about building an intermediate-life risk parity portfolio, a Ben Felix allocation video, building up or selling into a risk parity portfolio, a 42.5/42.5/15 portfolio, figuring it out for a UK national in the Middle East, setting it up after moving from Africa, and a bond basics review. Whew!
Link to Adam's 42.5/42.5/15 backtest analysis: Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 86: Answers To Your Questions And Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of May 14, 2021 May 15, 2021

In this episode we answer questions from Russell, Carter, the Mysterious Visitor 4541, Own and Travis about portfolios in the accumulation phase, PFF, REET vs. VNQ/VNQI, going into drawdown with a large taxable account, and inflation and TLT.
Then we move to our weekly portfolio reviews of the sample portfolios you can find at The Risk Parity Radio Portfolios Page
Link to referenced Seeking Alpha Article on REITs:
REET Vs. VNQI (ETF): The Better Way To Play International Real Estate | Seeking Alpha

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Episode 85: Can You Handle the Truth? Emails! Answers! Mini-rant! Oh My! May 13, 2021

In this episode we address emails from Jon, Laura, Kevin and Brian about the problems with Wealthfront's "risk parity" fund, moving to Costa Rica on a risk parity portfolio, inflation-friendly asset classes and TIPS.
Links:
Article Re Performance of Risk Parity funds in March 202: Quant Funds in COVID Market Rout | Markov Processes International
Wealthfront's description of its risk parity fund: What is Risk Parity invested in? – Wealthfront Support
Wealthfront Annual Report: risk_parity_annual_report.pdf (wealthfront.com)
Morningstar 2021 Diversification Landscape Report: Diversification_Landscape_033021v2.pdf (morningstar.com)

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Episode 84: Monthly RANT About Financial Mis-Wisdom And Bonus Email Extravaganza May 11, 2021

In this episode we, ahem, "discuss" the problem of Mindless Diversification. Oh, yeah! Then we tackle some emails from Craig, Falco, Wes, Justin, Matt, Brian and KC about the Aggressive Fifty-Fifty Sample Portfolio, distribution and re-balancing rules, the Vanguard Extended Duration Bond Fund, trust issues, and why we don't have guests.
The Article In Question: Mindless Diversification Article
Why Some Old Rules Of Thumb Are Really Bad: The "100 Minus Age" Rule Puts Retirees at Risk (thebalance.com)
Kitces Article re Rebalancing: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)

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Episode 83: Bonds and Gold and Taxes, Oh My! And Portfolio Reviews As Of May 7, 2021 May 08, 2021

In this Episode we answer emails from Aaron, Mark, Rob, Joel, Jake and the Mysterious Visitor 9380. We talk taxes on gold, what's in Uncle Frank's portfolios, a Seeking Alpha article about constructing Risk Parity-style portfolios, BND vs. GLDM, and portfolio management. And Trogdor!
Then we move to our weekly portfolio reviews of the sample portfolios you can find at The Risk Parity Radio Portfolios Page
Additional Links:
Taxation of Gold Article: Tax-efficient investing in gold (journalofaccountancy.com)
Seeking Alpha Article: Building A Risk-Parity Portfolio: An Example | Seeking Alpha

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Episode 82: Email Extravaganza! Transitioning To Retirement, Experimental Portfolios And More! May 07, 2021

Another Bonus Email Episode! In this episode we answer emails from listeners John, Mitchell, Steve, Elisheva, Brian and Justin about an article about us, withdrawal rates for the experimental sample portfolios, transitioning into retirement at age 55 (twice!), a newsletter, putting you to sleep with RPR, the Hedgefundie Ultimate Adventure portfolio, muni-bonds and options strategies.
Links:
John G's Article: Why I'm Unhappy when all my Investments go up - SmartMoneyToolbox
Portfoliocharts Portfolio Analyzer (input your own numbers): MY PORTFOLIO – Portfolio Charts
All About The Hedgefundie Ultimate Adventure Portfolio: HEDGEFUNDIE's Excellent Adventure (UPRO/TMF) - A Summary (optimizedportfolio.com)

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Episode 81: An Analysis Of A TIAA Real Estate Account (QREARX) May 05, 2021

In this episode, we take on Listener Erik's request to analyze the TIAA Real Estate Account, QREARX, which we do using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Additional Links:
QREARX Fact Sheet: TIAA Real Estate Account Fact Sheet
QREARX FAQ: REA FAQ 12.31.20 (tiaa.org)

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Episode 80: Risk Parity In The Middle Years, Advice To Kids And Inflation-Oriented Asset Classes May 03, 2021

In this all mail-bag episode we answer questions from Brian, Ayne, Drew and Lana about shifting into risk-parity portfolios early, Vanguard fund options, advice if you have a significant real estate portfolio on the side, advice for young adult children and about what asset classes do well in inflationary environments.
Links:
Portfolio Charts Main Calculator Page: MY PORTFOLIO – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Golden Butterfly Page: Golden Butterfly – Portfolio Charts
Portfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts
M. Kitces Four Phases Article: The Four Phases Of Saving For Retirement (kitces.com)
REIT Matrix: REIT Correlations

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Episode 79: Gold, Highlander Crystal Balls, Alchemy And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of April 30, 2021 May 02, 2021

In this episode we answer questions from Patrons Dominic and Jenny and Listeners #4593 and Phil about where to put your gold funds, making the transition to a risk-parity style portfolio, gold vs. bitcoin and a Ben Felix stock portfolio. Then we move to our weekly portfolio reviews of the sample portfolios you can find at The Risk Parity Radio Portfolios Page
Additional Links:
The Lindy Effect: Lindy effect - Wikipedia
Gold/Bitcoin Correlation Analysis: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Mandelbrot Set Video: Eye of the Universe - Mandelbrot Fractal Zoom
Ben Felix Five Factor Investing Video: Five Factor Investing with ETFs - YouTube
Ben Felix Five Factor Investing Paper: Five Factor Investing with ETFs | PWL Capital
Rational Reminder Podcast with Paul Merriman: RR #147 - Paul Merriman: We're Talking Millions - YouTube

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Special Announcement -- May 2, 2021 Q&A At High Noon Apr 29, 2021

Please join Diania Merriam and me for a Q&A session on May 2 at noon EDT. Here is the link to register: Investing Demystified: Q&A with Frank Vasquez (webinarjam.com)

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Episode 78: Mailbag and Part Two Of The Analysis Of SPLB Apr 28, 2021

In this episode, we answer emails from Brad, the Mysterious Visitor #6369, Robyn, Zach and Young about thanks, TIPs, TLT and leveraged bond funds. Then we complete our analysis of the SPDR Long Term Corporate Bond Fund, SPLB, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Links:
SPLB Fact Sheet: SPDR® Portfolio Long Term Corporate Bond ETF
Episode 70: IVOL Analysis Part One | Risk Parity Radio
Episode 72: IVOL Analysis Part Two | Risk Parity Radio
Correlation Analysis of TIP vs. short and intermediate treasuries: TIP Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Episode 9: PFF Analysis | Risk Parity Radio
SPLB Correlation Analysis: SPLB Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
SPLB vs. PFF Backtest Comparison: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 77: Ordinary Brokerage Account Tax Basics And Related Questions From Brian And Jamie Apr 26, 2021

In this episode we go through the basics about the taxation of ordinary brokerage accounts at an elementary level and answer questions from Brian and Jamie about taxation of intermediate savings and tax location approaching retirement. Links:
Tax Schedules for Ordinary Income: 2021 Tax Brackets and Other Tax Changes (investopedia.com)
Long-Term Capital Gains Information and Tax Schedules: Capital Gains Tax 101 (investopedia.com)
Bogleheads on Investing Episode 032: Phil DeMuth, host Rick Ferri (podbean.com)
Using the Zero Percent LTCG's Rate In Retirement: Never Pay Taxes Again - Go Curry Cracker!

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Episode 76: Merriman Four-Fund, Bonds, Crystal Balls And Weekly Reviews As Of April 23, 2021 Apr 24, 2021

In this episode we answer a question from Melissa about a Merriman Four-Fund Combo Portfolio, a question from Tony about a whole lot of stuff and then move to our weekly portfolio reviews of the sample portfolios you can find at The Risk Parity Radio Portfolios Page
Additional Links:
Merriman Retirement Portfolio: 6 Steps to the Ultimate Retirement Portfolio | Paul Merriman
Analysis Tweaking The Merriman Portfolio: Backtest Portfolio Analysis (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Long Term Treasuries/Stock Market Comparison: Backtest LT Treasuries Portfolio Analysis (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Correlation Comparison of GNR and PDBC: Correlations Comparison (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 75: An Email From Listener Mark And An Analysis Of SPLB (Part One) Apr 22, 2021

In this episode, we answer a question from Mark about preparing for his impending retirement and begin our analysis of the SPDR Long Term Corporate Bond Fund, SPLB, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Links:
Episode 68 And Links: Risk Parity Radio Episode 68
Asset Correlation Analyzer: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Episode 14 (Bonds Part One): Risk Parity Radio Episode 14
Episode 16 (Bonds Part Two): Risk Parity Radio Episode 16
SPLB Fact Sheet: Fact Sheet: SPDR® Portfolio Long Term Corporate Bond ETF
SPLB Summary Prospectus: Summary Prospectus for SPLB

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Episode 74: Action-Packed Bonus Episode! Once Again With The Email! Apr 20, 2021

In this action-packed bonus episode we answer listener questions from Javen, Tim, Julie, Don and Jacob about an experimental portfolio, valuation metrics and academic studies on risk parity, variations on the Risk Parity Ultimate sample portfolio, highly correlated meat products and total bond funds. Relevant Links:
Javen S XVZ link: How Does Barclays’ XVZ ETN Work? | Six Figure Investing
Javen S Portfolio Backtest: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation
Berkeley Academic Paper: risk parity111111.pdf (berkeley.edu)
Managing Multi-Asset Strategies Chapter 4: Chapter-4-from-Managing-MultiAsset-Strategies-2018.pdf - Google Drive
The All-Weather Story: All-Weather-Story.pdf
Risk Parity Ultimate Variants: RPU Portfolio Backtest
The Mega REIT Correlation Matrix: Asset Correlations

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Episode 73: Mailbag Time And Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of April 16, 2021 Apr 18, 2021

We begin this episode by answering questions from Claudia, Jane and Richard, about bond tents, Roth IRAs for teenagers and long-term treasury bonds, then set up for a couple new episodes to be made in the future with Jason and Erik, and then moving to our weekly portfolio reviews of the sample portfolios you can find at The Risk Parity Radio Portfolios Page
Additional links:
Michael Kitces Bond Tent Article: The Portfolio Size Effect And Optimal Equity Glidepaths
Early Retirement Now Data Sets: EarlyRetirementNow SWR Toolbox v2.0
Early Retirement Now SWR Series #34: Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk
Bond Convexity Article: High Profits at Low Rates: The Benefits of Bond Convexity – Portfolio Charts
Father McKenna Center: Home - The Father McKenna Center

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Episode 72: Mailbag And The Analysis Of IVOL (Part Two) Apr 14, 2021

We begin this episode with two emails from Maggie and Dominic and then move on to the second half of an analysis of the ETF IVOL, the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF, as suggested by listener Boone B. For the analysis, we use David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Additional Links:
Portfolio Visualizer Analyzer By Asset Class (for Dominic): Backtest Portfolio Asset Class
IVOL Information Page: IVOL | IVOL (ivoletf.com)
IVOL Asset Correlation Analysis: IVOL Correlations
Portfolio Analysis of All Seasons vs. All Seasons w/IVOL: Backtest All Seasons Portfolios

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Episode 71: A Bursting Mailbag And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of April 9, 2021 Apr 10, 2021

In this episode we take in emails from Anita, Ethan, Julie, Jeff and Ron and discuss structured products, small-cap value funds, using risk-parity portfolios for intermediate goals and experimenting with leveraged portfolios and bitcoin. And THEN we have our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at The Risk Parity Radio Portfolios Page
Additional links:
Correlation matrix of small-cap funds: Small Cap Asset Correlations
Assorted Portfolios With And Without Leverage At Optimized Portfolios: Optimized Portfolios Page

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Episode 70: Monthly Rant on Financial Mis-Wisdom (CAPEd Crystal Balls) And An Analysis of IVOL (Part One) Apr 07, 2021

We begin this episode with our monthly rant -- this time about crystal balls and the CAPE ratio and the move on to the first half of an analysis of the ETF IVOL, the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF, as suggested by listener Boone B. For the analysis, we use David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Links:
Article: Why You Shouldn't Rely Only On The Shiller CAPE Ratio To Predict Market Valuation – Wes Moss
Article: Crystal Balls and CAPE - Financial Symmetry, Inc.
Article: Does Your Wealth Manager Need a Crystal Ball... or Just Balls of Steel? (linkedin.com)
Article: Is the Market Overvalued or are the Measuring Gauges Broken? - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
IVOL Summary Prospectus: Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF
IVOL Information Page: IVOL | IVOL (ivoletf.com)

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Episode 69: Mailbag With Carlos, Brad, Brandon And J.B. And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 2, 2021 Apr 03, 2021

In this mailbag extravaganza we tackle questions and comments about podcast humor, intermediate-term investing with the Golden Ratio portfolio, tax-loss harvesting, bonds and dogs and cats living together, AND do our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the the sample portfolios you can find at Sample Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Additional links:
Asset Correlation Calculator: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Money For The Rest Of Us Podcast About Bonds: Why in the World Would You Own Bonds? | Money For The Rest of Us
The Mass Hysteria Caused by Dogs and Cats Living Together: dogs-and-cats-living-together-mass-hysteria

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Episode 68: Approaching Retirement Planning And Dogs And Cats Living Together With A Question From Listener Chuck Mar 31, 2021

In this episode we follow up on Episodes 64 and 66 by applying a process with which to approach retirement to listener Chuck H's situation. Links to help you with your retirement portfolio issues:
The Best Free Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts
Income Tax Brackets for 2021:
2021 Tax Brackets and Other Tax Changes (investopedia.com)
Capital Gains Tax Brackets for 2021: Capital Gains Tax (investopedia.com)
Qualified Dividends Info: Qualified Dividend Definition (investopedia.com)
Go Curry Cracker Tax Strategy: Never Pay Taxes Again - Go Curry Cracker!
Mad Fientist Roth Conversions and More: How to Access Retirement Funds Early (madfientist.com)
Taxation of Gold: Metal, Money, and the Measurable Value of Gold – Portfolio Charts

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Episode 67: Mailbag Time And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of March 26, 2021 Mar 27, 2021

We respond to emails from Christopher B, Jeff B and Mark B, and then dive into our weekly reviews of the sample portfolios you can find at Sample Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Additional links:
Correlation Analysis of VIOV and VBR: Small Cap Value Correlation Analysis
Portfolio Comparisons of Experimental Portfolios with S&P 500 and NASDAQ: Backtest Portfolio Analysis
Hoisington Newsletters: Economic Overview (hoisington.com)
30-year history of interest rates: The Bond Strategist Homepage
Mark B's New Risk Parity Reddit Forum: riskparityinvesting (reddit.com)

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Episode 66: How Can The Road Warrior Help Us Understand Risk Vs. Uncertainty And Rules Of Thumb? Mar 23, 2021

In this episode we follow up on Episode 64 regarding the difference between Risk and Uncertainty and why Rules of Thumb are good for portfolio construction in an Uncertain World. With some help from Mad Max. Links:
Bill Bengen's Original1994 Article About The 4% Rule: Bengen Article
Episode 49 re the Bias-Variance Dilemma or Tradeoff: RPR Podcast Episode 49
Episode 7 re our Three Principles of Portfolio Construction: RPR Podcast Episode 7

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Episode 65: An Email From Zach And Our Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of March 19, 2021 Mar 20, 2021

We answer a question from a listener about cash in the Sample Portfolios and then do our weekly portfolio review of the sample portfolios you can find at Sample Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Link to Hedgeye/nine interviews (this link will change or expire): Hedgeye
Link to the Michael Kitces article about rebalancing: Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)

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Episode 64: Mailbag With Chuck And Tim About Bonds And An Intro To Risk Versus Uncertainty Mar 17, 2021

In this episode we read Chuck And Tim's emails and then discuss some questions that Tim has about TLT, bonds and accumulation portfolios. We also begin a discussion of the concepts of Risk versus Uncertainty and how rules of thumb are useful when the future is uncertain.
Professor Gerd Gigerenzer on Heuristics and Uncertainty: Gerd Gigerenzer - heuristics - YouTube
Paul Merriman podcast on 50 years of drawdowns at various rates: Fixed contributions 2021 updated | Paul Merriman

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Episode 63: A Re-Introduction To Risk Parity Radio And Our Portfolio Reviews As Of March 12, 2021 Mar 13, 2021

In this episode, we answer a question from Craig, re-introduce the podcast to some of our new listeners and do our weekly portfolio review of the sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio
Here are the two links from Brandy to the SEC filings we mentioned in answering the question from Craig:
WT Emerging Markets Efficient Core Fund
WT International Efficient Core

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Episode 62: Monthly RANT About Financial Mis-wisdom And Portfolio Reviews As Of March 5, 2021 Mar 06, 2021

In this episode we talk about a email from listener Tommy V. about RPAR, do a little rant about FOMO investing and conduct our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
Links:
Tommy V's article about RPAR: https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4408481-rpar-risk-parity-etf-diversified-holdings-unique-hedge-fund-strategy
Episode 31 re RPAR: Episode 31
Ben Felix video about the ill-fated history of Chasing Hot Fund Managers: https://youtu.be/p6HrepdLSu4
Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: Texas sharpshooter fallacy - Wikipedia
Clustering Illusion: Clustering illusion - Wikipedia
Episode 7 re Three Core Principles: Core Principles Episode

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Episode 61: An Analysis Of NTSX As Suggested By Listeners Brandy And Andy (Part Two) Mar 03, 2021

In this episode we complete our analysis of NTSX, the WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Links: WisdomTree 90/60 Balanced Fund Information Page: NTSX - WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
NTSX Basic Statistics: wisdomtree-fi-export-statistics-ntsx.pdf
Correlation Analysis of NTSX: NTSX Asset Correlations
Backtest Comparison of Simple NTSX-Based Risk-Parity Style Portfolio: Backtest NTSX Portfolio Comparison
Backtest Comparison of Synthetic NTSX-Based Risk Parity Style Portfolio: Backtest Synthetic NTSX Portfolio Comparison
Episodes 12 and 40 about gold:
Episode 12
Episode 40
Laminar Capital Man

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Episode 60: Portfolio Reviews As Of February 26, 2021 And Distribution Information For March Feb 28, 2021

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

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Episode 59: An Analysis Of NTSX As Suggested By Listeners Brandy And Andy (Part One) Feb 25, 2021

In this episode we begin an analysis of NTSX, the WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Links: WisdomTree 90/60 Balanced Fund Information Page: NTSX - WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
NTSX Basic Statistics: wisdomtree-fi-export-statistics-ntsx.pdf
Laminar Capital Management (Andy Cole): Laminar Capital Management (laminarcm.com)

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Episode 58: Portfolio Reviews As Of February 19, 2021 With A Focus On The Risk Parity Ultimate Feb 21, 2021

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also discuss the Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio, which was first discussed in depth in Episode 11.
Link to Portfolio Visualizer Analysis: Risk Parity Ultimate Asset Allocation Analysis

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Episode 57: Mailbag Follies And An Analysis Of Managed Futures Fund DBMF (Part 2) Feb 18, 2021

In this episode we discuss a "guest request" email I received and complete our analysis of the managed futures fund DBMF that we began in Episode 55.
David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Links:
DBMF Summary Fact Sheet: https://www.imgp.com/us/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/iM-DBi-Managed-Futures-Strategy-ETF-4Q20.pdf
DBMF Semi-Annual Report: https://www.imgp.com/us/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/IMDBIETF-Semiannual-f.pdf
DBMF Prospectus: https://www.imgp.com/us/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/im_dbi_etfs_prospectus.pdf
Asset Correlation Matrix for DBMF: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=DBMF%2C+VTI%2C+TLT%2C+GLD%2C+PDBC&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36

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Episode 56: Portfolio Reviews As Of February 12, 2021 With A Focus On The Golden Ratio Portfolio Feb 14, 2021

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also consider three variations of the Golden Ratio Portfolio and compare them with the Vanguard Wellington Fund. For more on the Golden Ratio portfolio, check out Episodes 6 and 38.
Portfoliovisualizer Analysis: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=2&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2021&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&benchmark=-1&benchmarkSymbol=VWELX&portfolioNames=true&portfolioName1=Golden+Ratio&portfolioName2=SHY+Variation&portfolioName3=Emerging+Markets+Variation&asset1=TotalStockMarket&allocation1_1=42&allocation1_2=42&allocation1_3=42&asset2=LongTreasury&allocation2_1=26&allocation2_2=26&allocation2_3=26&asset3=Gold&allocation3_1=16&allocation3_2=16&allocation3_3=16&asset4=REIT&allocation4_1=10&allocation4_3=8&asset5=TreasuryBills&allocation5_1=6&asset6=ShortTreasury&allocation6_2=16&asset7=TIPS&asset8=EmergingMarket&allocation8_3=8

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Episode 55: Mailbag With Jason And Part One Of An Analysis Of Managed Futures Fund DBMF Feb 11, 2021

In today's episode we answer some questions from Jason P. about setting up a risk-parity style portfolio at M1 and then follow up on our discussion of the Dragon Portfolio (Episode 53) with part one of an analysis of Managed Futures Fund DBMF.
Modified Golden Ratio Portfolio With SHY: Portfolio Visualizer Analysis (portfoliovisualizer.com)
David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
DBMF Summary Fact Sheet: https://www.imgp.com/us/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/iM-DBi-Managed-Futures-Strategy-ETF-4Q20.pdf
DBMF Semi-Annual Report: https://www.imgp.com/us/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/IMDBIETF-Semiannual-f.pdf
DBMF Prospectus: https://www.imgp.com/us/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/im_dbi_etfs_prospectus.pdf

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Episode 54: Portfolio Reviews As Of February 5, 2021 And A Comparison Of The Golden Butterfly With A David Swensen Portfolio Feb 07, 2021

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also compare the Golden Butterfly portfolio with a David Swensen portfolio. For more on the Golden Butterfly, check out Episodes 4, 15, 17 and 36.
Links:
Swensen Portfolio: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/swensen-portfolio/
Comparison Analysis: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2021&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=true&portfolioName1=Golden+Butterfly&portfolioName2=Swenson+Individual&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTI&allocation1_1=20&allocation1_2=30&symbol2=IJS&allocation2_1=20&symbol3=TLT&allocation3_1=20&symbol4=SHY&allocation4_1=20&symbol5=GLD&allocation5_1=20&symbol6=VGTSX&allocation6_2=15&symbol7=VEIEX&allocation7_2=5&symbol8=VNQ&allocation8_2=20&symbol9=IEF&allocation9_2=15&symbol10=TIP&allocation10_2=15

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Episode 53: The Monthly Rant About Financial Mis-wisdom And An Introduction To The Dragon Portfolio Feb 03, 2021

It's that time again! This month's rant is dedicated to the memory of George Santayana, who said: "Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
We also begin a discussion of Chris Cole's "Dragon Portfolio."
Links:
"Hawk And Serpent" Paper from Artemis Capital: https://artemiscm.docsend.com/view/taygkbn
Interview of Chris Cole About the Dragon Portfolio: https://youtu.be/SkfgEZtJ9LA

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Episode 52: A Listener Question About A 457 And Our Portfolio Reviews As Of January 29, 2021 Jan 31, 2021

This is our weekly portfolio review of the sample portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
Since it is also the end of the month, we discuss distributions for the sample portfolios as well.
We also tackle a listener question about constructing a risk-parity style portfolio with a limited set of options.
To hear more about the Macro-Allocation Principle, listen to Episodes 7 and 37.

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Episode 51: Listener Questions From Luke And Matt And On Building Your Fortress Of Solitude Jan 27, 2021

In this episode we answer a question from Luke S. about the accumulation phase and one from Matt R. about the Experimental Portfolios.
Links:
Portfolio Charts Analyzer Tool: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/my-portfolio/
Note that we used a 25% savings rate when we ran our calculations.
The Fortress of Solitude Movie Clip (explicit): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJjKP8vYjpQ
Sample Portfolios Page: Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

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Episode 50: Portfolio Reviews As Of January 22, 2021 Jan 22, 2021

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
Sorry it's just a short one!

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Episode 49: Listener Mailbag With Chris And Tommy And The Bias-Variance Tradeoff Jan 20, 2021

Today we tackle two questions. Chris wants to drawdown an inherited IRA. Tommy wants to know about the use of correlations in Risk Parity analyses.
Links:
RPAR Managers Interview: https://youtu.be/vCiPDIB6TWg
Bridgewater Strategy Paper (see page 8 for quadrant map): http://sdcera.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=4&clip_id=75&meta_id=9141
Explanation of the Bias-Variance Tradeoff: https://elitedatascience.com/bias-variance-tradeoff

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Episode 48: Portfolio Reviews As Of January 15, 2021 And A Focus On REBALANCING The Accelerated Permanent Portfolio Jan 17, 2021

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
Additional Links:
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of the Original and Accelerated Permanent Portfolios: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2021&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=5&absoluteDeviation=7.5&relativeDeviation=0.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&benchmark=VFINX&benchmarkSymbol=VTI&portfolioNames=true&portfolioName1=Accelerated+Permanent+Portfolio&portfolioName2=Permanent+Portfolio&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=UPRO&allocation1_1=25&symbol2=TMF&allocation2_1=27.5&symbol3=PFF&allocation3_1=25&symbol4=GLD&allocation4_1=22.5&allocation4_2=25&symbol5=IJS&symbol6=IEF&symbol7=SHY&allocation7_2=25&symbol8=VTI&allocation8_2=25&symbol9=TLT&allocation9_2=25
Optimized Portfolios Site: https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/category/leverage/

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Episode 47: Weekly Portfolio Reviews As Of January 8, 2021 And A Comparison Of The All Seasons Portfolio With A Global Market Portfolio Jan 10, 2021

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also compare the All Seasons Portfolio with a Global Market Portfolio.
Links:
Global Market Portfolio Description: https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/01/05/own-the-financial-field-with-the-global-market-portfolio/
Portfolio Visualizer Comparison Analysis: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=2&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&portfolioNames=true&portfolioName1=Global+Market+Portfolio&portfolioName2=All+Seasons+Portfolio&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&asset1=TotalStockMarket&allocation1_1=23&allocation1_2=30&asset2=IntlDeveloped&allocation2_1=22&asset3=EmergingMarket&allocation3_1=5&asset4=GlobalBondHedged&allocation4_1=44&asset5=REIT&allocation5_1=4&asset6=Gold&allocation6_1=2&allocation6_2=15&asset7=LongTreasury&allocation7_2=40&asset8=IntermediateTreasury&allocation8_2=15&asset9=Commodities
Bond Correlation Matrix: https://tinyurl.com/y4x3jynu

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Episode 46: The Monthly Rant About Financial Mis-wisdom And Answering A Listener Question About The DRSK Fund Jan 07, 2021

In this episode we answer a question from listener Brett about the Aptus Defined Risk ETF and use David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing to analyze it, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Additional Links:
Referenced Insurance Policy Illustration: https://photos.app.goo.gl/Bjf6u7Vyy8HZz4VF6
DRSK Fact Sheet: https://aptusetfs.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/DRSK-Fact-Sheet-Jan-2021.pdf
DRSK Strategy Paper: https://aptusetfs.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Part-1-Sporadic-Asymmetry.pdf
DRSK Semi-Annual Report: https://aptusetfs.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Aptus-10.31.20-Semi-Annual-Report-Web-Ready-Version-Public.pdf
DRSK Correlation Matrix: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=DRSK%2C+VTI%2C+VUG%2C+VIOV%2C+TLT%2C+GLD%2C+VNQ%2C+PFF&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36
RPR Episode With Big ERN's Option Writing Strategy and Links: RPR Episode 40

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Episode 45: Portfolio Reviews As Of January 1, 2021 And January Distributions Jan 01, 2021

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also discuss the distributions for the month of January and the last six months of distributions.

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Episode 44: Taking The "Warren Buffett Challenge" With Listener Mark B And Bonus Resources Dec 30, 2020

In today's listener-inspired show, we analyze our sample portfolios and listener Mark B's Golden Six portfolio in the ten-year hedge fund challenge that Warren Buffett issued in 2008.
Links:
The Investors Podcast #328 with RPAR Managers: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/tip328-balanced-portfolio-allocation-with-damien-bisserier-alex-shahidi/
Optimized Portfolios Lazy Portfolio Analyses: https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/lazy-portfolios/
Analysis of Golden Butterfly, Golden Ratio and Golden Six: https://tinyurl.com/y9a33xq5
Analysis of Risk Parity Ultimate and All Seasons: https://tinyurl.com/yaj8qfes
Analysis of Accelerated Permanent Portfolio and Aggressive Fifty-Fifty: https://tinyurl.com/y9q68qpk

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Episode 43: Portfolio Reviews As Of December 25, 2020, With A Focus On The Aggressive Fifty-Fifty Portfolio Dec 26, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
Additional Links:
Introducing the Aggressive Fifty-Fifty Portfolio: RPR Episode 10
Episode 24 regarding the Aggressive Fifty-Fifty: RPR Episode 24
Rebalancing the Aggressive Fifty-Fifty: RPR Episode 32
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis: Backtest Fifty-Fifty Portfolios

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Episode 42: Comparing Merriman Portfolios With A Risk-Parity Alternative And Having A Look At Listener Brad's Portfolio Dec 23, 2020

In this portfolio analysis bonanza episode we tweak the Paul Merriman Two Funds for Life and Merriman Ultimate Portfolios to improve them Risk-Parity style and have a look at a portfolio submitted by Brad, one of our listeners.
Links:
Earn & Invest Podcast featuring Paul Merriman and Rich Buck: https://paulmerriman.com/tag/rich-buck/
Merriman Two-Funds For Life Portfolio Explanation: https://paulmerriman.com/2-funds-for-life/
Merriman Ultimate TDF Portfolio: https://paulmerriman.com/the-ultimate-target-date-fund-portfolio/
Merriman Google Sheet re Portfolio Glidepaths: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oNtsaWWXexQj30_sxEGBI08kCnrdzVdWg3dITu3ZSc8/edit#gid=0
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Two Funds For Life at 65 vs. Risk Parity Alternative: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&portfolioNames=true&portfolioName1=Two+Funds+For+Life+at+65&portfolioName2=Risk+Parity+Alternative&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&asset1=TotalStockMarket&allocation1_1=30&allocation1_2=30&asset2=IntlStockMarket&allocation2_1=20&allocation2_2=20&asset3=TotalBond&allocation3_1=30&asset4=GlobalBond&allocation4_1=10&asset5=TIPS&allocation5_1=10&asset6=LongTreasury&allocation6_2=30&asset7=Gold&allocation7_2=15&asset8=TreasuryBills&allocation8_2=5
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Ultimate Glidepath vs. Risk Parity Alternative: https://tinyurl.com/ycpfeazq
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Brad's Portfolio vs. Golden Butterfly: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=true&portfolioName1=Golden+Butterfly&portfolioName2=Brad%27s+Alternative&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTI&allocation1_1=20&symbol2=IJS&allocation2_1=20&symbol3=GLD&allocation3_1=20&allocation3_2=20&symbol4=TLT&allocation4_1=20&allocation4_2=20&symbol5=SHY&allocation5_1=20&symbol6=XLY&allocation6_2=20&symbol7=VGT&allocation7_2=20&symbol8=IEF&allocation8_2=20

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Episode 41: Portfolio Reviews As Of December 18, 2020, And A Closer Look At The Accelerated Permanent Portfolio Dec 19, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
Additional Links:
Episode 3 -- History of Portfolio Allocations Part 1: Episode 3
Episode 5 -- History of Portfolio Allocations Part 2: Episode 5
Episode 8 -- Introducing the Accelerated Permanent Portfolio: Episode 8
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=6.0&relativeDeviation=0.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&benchmark=-1&benchmarkSymbol=VTI&portfolioNames=true&portfolioName1=Original+Permanent+Portfolio&portfolioName2=Accelerated+Permanent+Portfolio&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=UPRO&allocation1_2=25&symbol2=TMF&allocation2_2=27.5&symbol3=PFF&allocation3_2=25&symbol4=GLD&allocation4_1=25&allocation4_2=22.5&symbol5=VTI&allocation5_1=25&symbol6=TLT&allocation6_1=25&symbol7=CASHX&allocation7_1=25&symbol8=SHY

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Episode 40: Answering A Question About Big ERN's Gold Analysis From Joseph K. Dec 15, 2020

In this episode we address a listener question from Joseph K. about Part 34 of Big ERN's SWR Series ("Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk"), which you can find here:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2020/01/08/gold-hedge-against-sequence-risk-swr-series-part-34/
Additional Links:
RPR Episode 12: Podcast | Risk Parity Radio
Big ERN's Option Writing Portfolio Strategy (Part 3): https://earlyretirementnow.com/2019/03/27/passive-income-through-option-writing-part-3/
Homestake Mining in the Great Depression: https://www.caseyresearch.com/daily-dispatch/gold-stocks-depression/

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Episode 39: Portfolio Reviews As Of December 11, 2020, And A Comparative Analysis Of The Risk Parity Ultimate Against A Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio Dec 12, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
Additional links:
Choose FI Episode 275: https://www.choosefi.com/board-games-and-war-games-ep-275/
Choose FI Episode 277: https://www.choosefi.com/gauging-the-weight-of-your-portfolio-ep-277/
Choose FI Episode 194: https://www.choosefi.com/the-role-of-bonds-in-a-portfolio/
Risk Parity Radio Bonds Part 1: Podcast | Risk Parity Radio
Risk Parity Radio Bonds Part 2: Podcast | Risk Parity Radio
Comparative Analysis of the Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio Against A Rick Ferri Core Four: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=0.0&showYield=true&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=true&portfolioName1=Risk+Parity+Ultimate&portfolioName2=Rick+Ferri+Core+Four&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&allocation1_1=0&allocation1_3=0&symbol2=VUG&allocation2_1=12.5&allocation2_3=0&symbol3=VIOV&allocation3_1=12.5&allocation3_3=0&symbol4=VOO&allocation4_1=12.5&allocation4_3=0&symbol5=EDV&allocation5_1=5&symbol6=TLT&allocation6_1=15&allocation6_3=0&symbol7=GLD&allocation7_1=10&symbol8=VNQ&allocation8_1=5&allocation8_2=8&allocation8_3=0&symbol9=VNQI&allocation9_1=5&allocation9_3=0&symbol10=VIXY&allocation10_1=2.5&symbol11=PFF&allocation11_1=12.5&symbol12=UPRO&allocation12_1=2.5&symbol13=CASHX&allocation13_1=0&symbol14=TMF&allocation14_1=5&symbol15=VTI&allocation15_2=48&symbol16=VXUS&allocation16_2=24&symbol17=IEF&allocation17_2=20

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Episode 38: Portfolio Reviews As Of December 4, 2020, And A Comparison Between The Golden Ratio And A Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio Dec 05, 2020

This is our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
Additional Links:
RPR Episode 6 -- About The Golden Ratio Portfolio: Podcast | Risk Parity Radio
Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio Reference: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/rick-ferri-core-four/
Comparison Analysis of GolderRatio vs. Rick Ferri Core Four: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=2&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=0.2&relativeDeviation=20.0&portfolioNames=true&portfolioName1=Rick+Ferri+Core+Four&portfolioName2=Golden+Ratio&asset1=TotalStockMarket&allocation1_1=48&allocation1_2=14&asset2=LargeCapGrowth&allocation2_2=14&asset3=SmallCapValue&allocation3_2=14&asset4=LongTreasury&allocation4_2=26&asset5=Gold&allocation5_2=16&asset6=REIT&allocation6_1=8&allocation6_2=10&asset7=IntermediateTreasury&allocation7_1=20&allocation7_2=0&asset8=ShortTreasury&asset9=IntlStockMarket&allocation9_1=24&allocation9_2=0&asset10=TreasuryBills&allocation10_2=6

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Episode 37: A Back-to-Basics Discussion Of Our Three Principles and the Monthly RANT About Financial Mis-wisdom Dec 02, 2020

This episode is a follow-up to Episode 7 about our basic principles of risk-parity portfolio construction, which are: (1) the Holy Grail Principle; (2) the Macro-Allocation Principle; and (3) the Simplicity Principle. Links:
Episode 7: Risk Parity Radio Episode 7
Optimal Finance Daily Episode 1361: https://oldpodcast.com/1361-annualized-returns-by-asset-class-from-1999-2018-by-sam-of-financial-samurai-on-reits-gold-investments/
Bigger Pockets Money Episode 153: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/biggerpockets-money-podcast-153-bill-bengen
Earn & Invest Podcast November 30, 2020: https://www.earnandinvest.com/episodes-2/supercharge-your-retirement-and-make-millions-more

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Episode 36: Portfolio Reviews As Of November 27, 2020 And A Comparison Of The Golden Butterfly vs. a Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio Nov 28, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
The Portfolio of the Week is the Golden Butterfly, which you can learn more about here:
https://portfoliocharts.com/2015/09/22/catching-a-golden-butterfly/
We compare the Golden Butterfly Portfolio with the Rick Ferri Core Four at Portfolio Visualizer. Link to analysis:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=2&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=0.2&relativeDeviation=20.0&portfolioNames=true&portfolioName1=Golden+Butterfly&portfolioName2=Rick+Ferri+Core+Four&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&asset1=TotalStockMarket&allocation1_1=20&allocation1_2=48&asset2=LargeCapGrowth&asset3=SmallCapValue&allocation3_1=20&asset4=LongTreasury&allocation4_1=20&asset5=Gold&allocation5_1=20&asset6=REIT&allocation6_1=0&allocation6_2=8&asset7=IntermediateTreasury&allocation7_1=0&allocation7_2=20&asset8=ShortTreasury&allocation8_1=20&asset9=IntlStockMarket&allocation9_2=24&asset10=TreasuryBills

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Episode 35: My Peer-to-Peer Lending Odyssey Nov 26, 2020

On today's episode I relate my experiences with peer-to-peer lending as an alternative investment to see if it is something you may wish to consider. As always, we use David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing as the basis for our review:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Here is the Money Life podcast regarding my winning gold-price prognostication. Skip to 5:20 for just that section (but the rest is good too): https://moneylifeshow.libsyn.com/oakmarks-mcgregor-you-cant-and-wont-generate-income-like-you-used-to

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Episode 34: Questions From Listeners Alan And Tommy And Portfolio Reviews As Of November 20, 2020 Nov 22, 2020

We begin this episode with some nice questions about perpetual withdrawal rates and correlation metrics. Then we proceed with our portfolio reviews of the sample portfolios at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
Additional links:
Morningstar/Swedroe podcast: https://overcast.fm/+R6uKzooqI/30:25
Risk Parity Radio Bond Episodes:
Part One: https://www.riskparityradio.com/podcast/episode/4965a5d2/episode-14-which-bonds-are-right-for-your-risk-parity-style-portfolio-a-comprehensive-analysis-part-i
Part Two: https://www.riskparityradio.com/podcast/episode/4c25df5c/episode-16-which-bonds-are-right-for-your-risk-parity-style-portfolio-a-comprehensive-analysis-part-2

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Episode 33: What Can Dirty Harry Teach Us About Investing In Art? Nov 18, 2020

I believe its all in the title.
Here are David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing for reference:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
And here is the Masterworks website: https://www.masterworks.io/about/how-it-works

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Episode 32: Portfolio Reviews As Of November 13, 2020 And A Discussion About REBALANCING! Nov 15, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
One of our portfolios, the Aggressive Fifty-Fifty, triggered a rebalancing band this week and so we also have a detailed discussion of rebalancing.
Link to referenced Kitces article: https://www.kitces.com/blog/best-opportunistic-rebalancing-frequency-time-horizons-vs-tolerance-band-thresholds/

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Episode 31: What About The New Risk-Parity ETF, RPAR? A Summary And Analysis Nov 11, 2020

In this episode we answer a listener question and provide a summary and analysis of RPAR, the Risk Parity ETF. Links:
RPAR Third Quarter Review Slide Deck: https://rparetf.com/quarterly-reviews/Review--1602725674-RPAR-Risk-Parity-ETF-Quarterly-Review-3Q20.pdf
RPAR Quarterly Reviews Page, Including Webcast: https://rparetf.com/quarterlyreviews
Marketwatch List of RPAR Components: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/rpar/holdings?mod=mw_quote_tab
Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of RPAR-like Portfolio vs. Golden Ratio Portfolio:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTI&allocation1_1=10&allocation1_2=42&symbol2=VTMGX&allocation2_1=6&symbol3=VEIEX&allocation3_1=6&symbol4=XLE&allocation4_1=4&symbol5=XLI&allocation5_1=4&symbol6=XLB&allocation6_1=4&symbol7=TLT&allocation7_1=29&allocation7_2=26&symbol8=TIP&allocation8_1=29&symbol9=GLD&allocation9_1=8&allocation9_2=16&symbol10=VNQ&allocation10_2=10&symbol11=CASHX&allocation11_2=6

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Episode 30: Portfolio Reviews As Of November 6, 2020 Nov 08, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

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Episode 29: Holy Bitcoin, Batman! Could Bitcoin Fit In A Risk-Parity Style Portfolio? Nov 05, 2020

In this episode, we analyze an investment in bitcoin for a risk-parity style portfolio using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Investopedia Article About Bitcoin: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin.asp
Article re $1B bitcoin loss -- now revealed as a US government seizure: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/somebody-may-have-just-gotten-away-with-stealing-1-billion-11604592280?mod=home-page
Analysis of bitcoin vs. gold vs. total stock market fund: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=GBTC&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=GLD&allocation2_2=100&symbol3=VTI&allocation3_3=100
Correlation analysis matrix of bitcoin (GBTC): https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTI%2C+TLT%2C+GLD%2C+VNQ%2C+VNQI%2C+GBTC&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36

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Episode 28: Monthly Rant About Financial Mis-wisdom And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 30, 2020 Nov 01, 2020

We begin with a monthly rant about "free-lunch" financial products that claim to provide stock market returns without stock market risk (and that usually bear clever names for marketing purposes).
Following the rant is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

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Episode 27: What About Utilities As An Allocation In A Risk-Parity Style Portfolio? Oct 29, 2020

In this episode, which is a follow-up to Episode 25, we analyze as an investment in utilities for a risk-parity style portfolio using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
Links and References:
Optimal Finance Daily Podcast Episode 1329: https://oldpodcast.com/1329-is-value-investing-dead-by-vitaliy-katsenelson-of-contrarian-edge-on-growth-stocks-fang/
Fi-Lexible Webinar (scheduled for Nov 1, 2020): https://www.eventbrite.com/e/free-webinar-are-you-fi-lexible-tickets-125036815481
Episode 7 re the Three Principles: https://www.riskparityradio.com/podcast/episode/4ec882cb/episode-7-how-to-construct-a-risk-parity-style-portfolio-from-basic-principles
Correlation Matrix for Utility ETFs: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTSAX%2C+TLT%2C+GLD%2C+VNQ%2C+XLU%2C+VPU%2C+FUTY%2C+IDU&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36
Portfolio Visualizer Backtest of Portfolios with REITs and Utilities: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTI&allocation1_1=42&allocation1_2=42&allocation1_3=42&symbol2=TLT&allocation2_1=26&allocation2_2=26&allocation2_3=26&symbol3=GLD&allocation3_1=16&allocation3_2=16&allocation3_3=16&symbol4=XLU&allocation4_1=10&allocation4_3=5&symbol5=VGSIX&allocation5_2=10&allocation5_3=5&symbol6=CASHX&allocation6_1=6&allocation6_2=6&allocation6_3=6

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Episode 26: Portfolio Reviews As Of October 23, 2020 And A Face-off Between The All Seasons Portfolio And Vanguard Wellesley Oct 25, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also compare the All Seasons Portfolio with the Vanguard Wellesley Fund at Portfolio Visualizer. Link to analysis:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VWINX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VTI&allocation2_2=30&symbol3=TLT&allocation3_2=40&symbol4=VGIT&allocation4_2=15&symbol5=GLD&allocation5_2=7.5&symbol6=PDBC&allocation6_2=7.5
Link to White Coat Investor interview of Larry Swedroe and transcript:
https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/evidence-based-investing-with-larry-swedroe-podcast-181/

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Episode 25: What About Sector Funds And How Should We Decide Whether To Consider Them? Oct 21, 2020

This episode takes a broad look and sector funds and compares them with the overall stock market for diversification purposes. Thanks to listener Micah for the question.
Links:
SPDR Report on the SPDR Select ETFs: https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/Pdf/General%20Documents/Q3%202020%20Sector%20SPDR%20Quarterly%20Guide
Correlation Analysis of All Eleven SPDR Sector Funds from 2018 to 2020: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=SPY%2C+XLY%2C+XLP%2C+XLE%2C+XLF%2C+XLV%2C+XLI%2C+XLB%2C+XLK%2C+XLU%2C+XLRE%2C+XLC&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36
Correlation Analysis of Nine SPDR Sector Funds from 1999 to 2020: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=SPY%2C+XLY%2C+XLP%2C+XLE%2C+XLF%2C+XLV%2C+XLI%2C+XLB%2C+XLK%2C+XLU&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36

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Episode 24: Portfolio Reviews As Of October 16, 2020 And A Face-Off Between The Aggressive Fifty-Fifty And Two Dave Ramsey Style Portfolios Oct 18, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also compare the Aggressive Fifty-Fifty Portfolio with two Dave Ramsey-Style Portfolios using the tools at Portfolio Visualizer. Relevant links:
White Coat Investor article about a Ramsey-style portfolio: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/dave-ramsey-asset-allocation/
Portfolio Visualizer Face-Off Analysis (including correlation analysis under the Assets tab):
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=7.5&relativeDeviation=0.0&showYield=true&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=PFF&allocation1_1=17&symbol2=TMF&allocation2_1=33&symbol3=GLD&allocation3_1=0&symbol4=UPRO&allocation4_1=33&symbol5=VIVIX&allocation5_2=25&symbol6=VMGRX&allocation6_2=25&allocation6_3=25&symbol7=VSCIX&allocation7_2=25&symbol8=VGTSX&allocation8_2=25&symbol9=VGIAX&allocation9_3=25&symbol10=VSGIX&allocation10_3=25&symbol11=VWIGX&allocation11_3=25&symbol12=IEF&allocation12_1=17

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Episode 23: How To Analyze A Proposed Portfolio From A Macro-Perspective Oct 14, 2020

We analyze a portfolio recently proposed in a MarketWatch article that is intended to replace the standard 60/40 stock/bond retirement portfolio.
Links:
MarketWatch article: https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/a-60-40-stocks-bond-strategy-no-longer-works-heres-what-to-do-instead-51601653163?mod=mw_latestnews
Portfolio Visualizer Comparison Analysis: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)
Portfolio Visualizer Asset Correlation Analysis of the MarketWatch portfolio: Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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Episode 22: Portfolio Reviews As Of October 9, 2020 Oct 12, 2020
This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
And here is a nice picture of Walden Pond on October 11, 2020:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/sksbGcENz62pb8PVA

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Episode 21: What About REITs As An Investment In A Risk Parity-Style Portfolio? (Part 2 of 2) Oct 07, 2020

In this episode, which is Part Two of Two, we conclude the analysis of REITS as an investment that we began in Episode 19, using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
We cover the questions six through ten in this episode.
Helpful links:
Backtest of REITs versus the stock market comparison:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&asset1=TotalStockMarket&allocation1_1=100&asset2=REIT&allocation2_2=100
Composition of the ETF VNQ: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vnq/holdings?mod=mw_quote_tab
Correlation Matrix of the REITs and funds mentioned: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTI%2C+VNQ%2C+VNQI%2C+REET%2C+BXP%2C+PLD%2C+O%2C+SPG%2C+AVB%2C+WY%2C+VTR%2C+WELL%2C+PSA%2C+AMT%2C+CCI%2C+DLR%2C+WPC%2C+VNO%2C+LAMR%2C+GLPI%2C+LAND%2C+IRM&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36

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Episode 20: Monthly Rant About Financial Mis-Wisdom, Portfolio Reviews As Of October 12, 2020 And A Comparison Of The Accelerated Permanent Portfolio Against Two Dave Ramsey-Style Portfolios Oct 04, 2020

We begin with a monthly rant about the misguided idea of picking funds that have "great fund managers" and a few other topics.
Relevant links:
Recent interview of Burton Malkiel: https://animalspiritspod.libsyn.com/a-random-talk-with-burton-malkiel
Risk Parity Radio Bond Episodes:
https://www.riskparityradio.com/podcast/episode/4965a5d2/episode-14-which-bonds-are-right-for-your-risk-parity-style-portfolio-a-comprehensive-analysis-part-i
https://www.riskparityradio.com/podcast/episode/4c25df5c/episode-16-which-bonds-are-right-for-your-risk-parity-style-portfolio-a-comprehensive-analysis-part-2
Following the rant is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also compare the Accelerated Permanent Portfolio with two Dave Ramsey-Style Portfolios using the tools at Portfolio Visualizer. Relevant links:
White Coat Investor article about a Ramsey-style portfolio: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/dave-ramsey-asset-allocation/
Portfolio Visualizer analysis:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=7.5&relativeDeviation=0.0&showYield=true&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=PFF&allocation1_1=25&symbol2=TMF&allocation2_1=27.5&symbol3=GLD&allocation3_1=22.5&symbol4=UPRO&allocation4_1=25&symbol5=VIVIX&allocation5_2=25&symbol6=VMGRX&allocation6_2=25&allocation6_3=25&symbol7=VSCIX&allocation7_2=25&symbol8=VGTSX&allocation8_2=25&symbol9=VGIAX&allocation9_3=25&symbol10=VSGIX&allocation10_3=25&symbol11=VWIGX&allocation11_3=25

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Episode 19: What About REITs As An Investment In A Risk Parity-Style Portfolio? (Part 1 of 2) Sep 30, 2020

In this episode, which is Part One of Two, we begin our analysis of REITS as an investment using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
We cover the first five questions in this episode.
Helpful links:
Investopedia Article on REITs: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reit.asp
Directory of REITs by sector: https://www.reit.com/investing/reit-directory?title=nly&field_rtc_listing_status_tid_selective[]=524&field_address_country_selective[]=US&sort_by=title
The Section 199A Tax Benefits of REITs: https://www.kitces.com/blog/reit-real-estate-investments-section-199a-qbi-deduction/#:~:text=Because%20under%20IRC%20Section%20199A,Qualified%20Business%20Income%20or%20QBI)
Correlation Matrix of Most of the REITs and funds mentioned: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTI%2C+VNQ%2C+VNQI%2C+REET%2C+BXP%2C+PLD%2C+O%2C+SPG%2C+AVB%2C+WY%2C+VTR%2C+WELL%2C+PSA%2C+AMT%2C+CCI%2C+DLR%2C+WPC%2C+VNO%2C+LAMR%2C+GLPI%2C+LAND%2C+IRM&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36

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Episode 18: Portfolio Reviews As Of September 25, 2020 And A Comparison Of The Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio Against The Bogleheads Three-Fund Portfolio Sep 27, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also compare the Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio with a Boglehead's Three-Fund Portfolio using the tools at Portfolio Visualizer. Here is a link to that analysis:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=2.5&relativeDeviation=0.0&showYield=true&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&allocation1_1=0&allocation1_3=0&symbol2=VUG&allocation2_1=12.5&allocation2_3=0&symbol3=VIOV&allocation3_1=12.5&allocation3_3=0&symbol4=VOO&allocation4_1=12.5&allocation4_3=0&symbol5=EDV&allocation5_1=5&symbol6=TLT&allocation6_1=15&allocation6_3=0&symbol7=GLD&allocation7_1=10&symbol8=VNQ&allocation8_1=10&allocation8_3=0&symbol9=VNQI&allocation9_1=0&allocation9_3=0&symbol10=VIXY&allocation10_1=2.5&symbol11=PFF&allocation11_1=12.5&symbol12=UPRO&allocation12_1=2.5&allocation13_1=0&symbol14=TMF&allocation14_1=5&symbol15=VTI&allocation15_2=40&symbol16=BND&allocation16_2=40&symbol17=VXUS&allocation17_2=20
The Risk Parity Ultimate is a conservative portfolio that is designed for medium and long-term needs. It is comprised of 12 different funds in six different asset classes: 40% stock funds (split into 12.5% VUG, 12.5% VIOV, 6.25% USMV, 6.25% SPLV and 2.5% UPRO), 25% long-term treasury bond funds (split into 15% TLT, 5% EDV and 5% TMF), 12.5% preferred stock funds (PFF), 10% gold (GLDM), 10% REITs (REET) and 2.5% in a stock market volatility tracking fund (VXX).
Here is the link to Episode 9, where we discuss investing in preferred stock shares and the PFF fund in particular:
https://www.riskparityradio.com/podcast/episode/48e031bb/episode-9-how-to-choose-investments-using-a-process-and-an-application-to-a-preferred-stock-fund

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Episode 17: Portfolio Reviews As Of September 18, 2020 And A Comparison Of The Golden Ratio Portfolio Against The Bogleheads Three-Fund Portfolio Sep 20, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also compare the Golden Butterfly Portfolio with a Boglehead's Three-Fund Portfolio using the tools at Portfolio Visualizer. Here is a link to that analysis:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&asset1=Gold&allocation1_1=16&asset2=LargeCapGrowth&allocation2_1=14&asset3=SmallCapValue&allocation3_1=14&asset4=LargeCapBlend&asset5=LongTreasury&allocation5_1=26&asset6=TotalBond&asset7=TreasuryBills&allocation7_1=6&asset8=TotalStockMarket&allocation8_2=40&asset9=Commodities&asset10=TotalBond&allocation10_2=40&asset11=ShortTreasury&asset12=IntlStockMarket&allocation12_1=14&allocation12_2=20&asset13=IntermediateTreasury&asset14=REIT&allocation14_1=10
The Golden Ratio is a conservative portfolio that is designed for medium to long-term needs. It is based on the mathematical golden ratio known to the ancients, which is approximately 1.618 and is represented by the Greek letter phi. It is comprised of five asset classes in seven funds that are weighted by successive applications of the golden ratio: 42% stocks (split into 14% large cap growth (VUG), 14% small cap value (VIOV) and 14% low volatility (USMV)), 26% long-term treasury bonds (TLT), 16% gold (GLDM), 10% REITs (REET) and 6% money market (SPAXX), Since 1970, it has a compounded annual growth rate (after inflation) of 7.0%, and an expected permanent safe withdrawal rate of 5.0%.

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Episode 16: Which Bonds Are Right For Your Risk-Parity Style Portfolio? A Comprehensive Analysis (Part 2) Sep 16, 2020

In this episode, which is Part Two of Two, we continue our discussion from Episode 14 (Part 1), and conclude our analysis bonds as an investment using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
We cover the last five questions in this episode.
Here are the links referenced in the episode
The correlation matrix of bond funds: https://tinyurl.com/y4x3jynu
Dan Huffman's Ultimate KI$$ portfolio with treasury bonds: https://keepinvestingsimplestupid.com/the-ultimate-ki-portfolio-with-bonds/?fbclid=IwAR3UAmCo9zLVFc5LuIjQd3pjX9MtsMbVGlu9OiNQbK7jFS8le7GzXOlLyTM
The Swanson portfolio: https://keepinvestingsimplestupid.com/the-swanson-portfolio/?fbclid=IwAR17CTGmCrrxsMfyI3mt0wuFBmMJunpiivyBlom62bO2_9C0m5O61aL8C8I
The prospectus for TLT: https://www.ishares.com/us/library/stream-document?stream=reg&product=ISHT20&shareClass=NA&documentId=925887%7E925803%7E926213%7E925554%7E925655&iframeUrlOverride=%2Fus%2Fliterature%2Fprospectus%2Fp-ishares-20-plus-year-treasury-bond-etf-2-28.pdf
The fact sheet for TLT: https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/fact-sheet/tlt-ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf-fund-fact-sheet-en-us.pdf
A chocolate vinegar cake recipe: https://www.bonappetit.com/test-kitchen/inside-our-kitchen/article/chocolate-vinegar-cake-recipe
Risk parity sample portfolios page: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

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Episode 15: Portfolio Reviews As Of September 11, 2020 And A Comparison Of The Golden Butterfly Portfolio With The Boglehead's Three-Fund Portfolio Sep 13, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also compare the Golden Butterfly Portfolio with a Boglehead's Three-Fund Portfolio using the tools at Portfolio Visualizer. Here is a link to that analysis:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&asset1=Gold&allocation1_1=20&asset2=LargeCapGrowth&asset3=SmallCapValue&allocation3_1=20&asset4=LargeCapBlend&asset5=LongTreasury&allocation5_1=20&asset6=TotalBond&asset7=TreasuryBills&asset8=TotalStockMarket&allocation8_1=20&allocation8_2=40&asset9=Commodities&asset10=TotalBond&allocation10_2=40&asset11=ShortTreasury&allocation11_1=20&asset12=IntlStockMarket&allocation12_2=20&asset13=IntermediateTreasury
For reference, the Golden Butterfly Portfolio is the brainchild of Tyler, the founder and operator of the website www.portfoliocharts.com. It is a conservative portfolio and is comprised of four asset classes in five funds that are equally weighted: 20% total U.S. stock market (VTI), 20% small cap value stocks (VIOV), 20% long-term treasury bonds (TLT), 20% short term treasury bonds (SHY) and 20% gold (GLDM). Since 1970, it has a compounded annual growth rate (after inflation) of 6.4%, and an expected permanent safe withdrawal rate of 5.3%.

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Episode 14: Which Bonds Are Right For Your Risk-Parity Style Portfolio? A Comprehensive Analysis (Part I) Sep 09, 2020

In this episode, which is Part One of Two, we begin our analysis of bonds as an investment using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
We cover the first five questions in this episode.
Here is the link to the correlation matrix referenced in the episode:
https://tinyurl.com/y4x3jynu
Risk parity sample portfolios page: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

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Episode 13: Portfolio Reviews As Of September 4, 2020 And Further Discussion Of The All Seasons Portfolio Sep 06, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also discuss the All Seasons Portfolio in a little more depth, including why it may not be the best representative of a risk-parity style portfolio and what it is missing.
The All Seasons portfolio is a reference portfolio that is modeled after Ray Dalio's All Weather portfolio and is described in "Money: Master the Game" by Tony Robbins. It is a very conservative portfolio that is comprised of four asset classes in five funds, allocated as follows: 30% total U.S. stock market (VTI), 40% long-term treasury bonds (TLT), 15% intermediate-term treasury bonds (VGIT) 7.5% gold (GLDM) and 7.5% commodities (PDBC). Since 1970, it has a compounded annual growth rate (after inflation) of 5.6%, and an expected permanent safe withdrawal rate of 3.8%.
Here are the links I mentioned to theoretical risk-parity portfolios from the literature:
Risk Parity Portfolios: Efficient Portfolios Through True Diversification: https://www.panagora.com/assets/PanAgora-Risk-Parity-Portfolios-Efficient-Portfolios-Through-True-Diversification.pdf
Risk Parity: Silver Bullet Or A Bridge Too Far: https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Chapter-4-from-Managing-MultiAsset-Strategies-2018.pdf

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Episode 12: Monthly Rant About Financial Mis-Wisdom (A New Feature!) And An Analysis Of Gold As An Investment Sep 03, 2020

In this episode we analyze gold as an investment using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?
We also discuss several bits of financial misinformation I heard on podcasts last month about small-cap value stocks and options for improving traditional 60/40 portfolios.
Links referenced in the episode:
Correlation analysis of small cap value funds versus the total stock market and large cap growth: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTSMX%2C+VIGRX%2C+SLYV&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36
Analysis of gold versus the total stock market since 2005: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=6.0&relativeDeviation=0.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=UPRO&symbol2=TMF&symbol3=PFF&symbol4=VGIT&symbol5=VTI&allocation5_2=100&symbol6=BND&symbol7=REET&symbol8=TLT&symbol9=GLD&allocation9_1=100
Portfoliocharts porfolio analyzer (input 100% gold yourself): https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/my-portfolio/
Recent Portfolio Charts article about gold, gold miners, drivers and taxes: https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/08/21/metal-money-and-the-measurable-value-of-gold/
Risk parity sample portfolios page: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

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Episode 11: Portfolio Reviews As Of August 28, 2020 And An Explication Of The Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio Aug 30, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also discuss the Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio in depth, including how it was constructed and how it compares with a classic 60/40 retirement portfolio comprised of VTI (60%) and BND (40%).
The Risk Parity Ultimate is a conservative portfolio that is designed for medium and long-term needs. It is comprised of 12 different funds in six different asset classes: 40% stock funds (split into 12.5% VUG, 12.5% VIOV, 6.25% USMV, 6.25% SPLV and 2.5% UPRO), 25% long-term treasury bond funds (split into 15% TLT, 5% EDV and 5% TMF), 12.5% preferred stock funds (PFF), 10% gold (GLDM), 10% REITs (REET) and 2.5% in a stock market volatility tracking fund (VXX). Here is a link to the analyzer we used to compare the Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio with a classic 60/40 retirement portfolio: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

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Episode 10: Portfolio Reviews As Of August 21, 2020 And An Explication Of The Aggressive Fifty-Fifty Portfolio Aug 23, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also discuss the Aggressive Fifty-Fifty Portfolio in depth, including how it was constructed and how it compares with a Total Stock Market portfolio. Are you interested in an 80% better performance with only slightly more risk than the market? Then lend your ear.
The Aggressive Fifty-Fifty Portfolio is comprised of 33% UPRO, 33% TMF, 17% PFF and 17% VGIT. Here is a link to the analyzer we used to compare the Aggressive Fifty Portfolio with a Total Stock Market portfolio: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

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Episode 9: How To Choose Investments Using A Process And An Application To A Preferred Stock Fund Aug 20, 2020

In this episode we discuss how NOT to choose investments and how to employ a good process to analyze an investment. We adopt the process of David Stein's 10 Questions To Master Successful Investing and apply it to PFF, an exchange-traded fund of preferred stock.
Links:
Investopedia Article -- "How Does Preferred Stock Work?": https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/preferredstock.asp#:~:text=Preferreds%20are%20issued%20with%20a,of%20the%20preferred%20shares%20falls.
Ishares description of PFF: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239826/ishares-us-preferred-stock-etf
Portfolio Visualizer's Asset Correlation Analyzer: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations
"Money for the Rest of Us: 10 Questions To Master Successful Investing": https://moneyfortherestofus.com/how-to-invest-book/
The 10 Questions To Ask When Considering An Investment:
1. What is it?
2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3. What is the upside?
4. What is the downside?
5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
6. What is the investment vehicle?
7. What does it take to be successful?
8. Who is getting a cut?
9. How does it impact your portfolio?
10. Should you invest?

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Episode 8: Portfolio Reviews As Of August 14, 2020 And An Explication Of The Accelerated Permanent Portfolio Aug 16, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also discuss the Accelerated Permanent Portfolio in depth, including how it was constructed and how it compares with A Total Stock Market portfolio. Are you interested in a 50% better performance with slightly less risk than the market? Then lend your ear.
Here is a link to the analyzer we used to compare the Accelerated Permanent Portfolio with a Total Stock Market portfolio: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

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Episode 7: How To Construct A Risk Parity Style Portfolio From Basic Principles Aug 13, 2020

In this episode we discuss how professionals construct risk-parity style portfolios, what are the basic principles for the do-it-yourself investor, and how to implement them. The three basic principles are (1) the Holy Grail Principle; (2) the Macro-Allocation Principle; and (3) the Simplicity Principle.
Here are the links mentioned in the episode:
March draw-downs for professional risk-parity style portfolios: https://www.markovprocesses.com/blog/risk-parity-funds-in-the-coronavirus-market-rout/
Ray Dalio explains the Holy Grail principle of risk-parity style investing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nu4lHaSh7D4
Ray Dalio reveals the most basic components of most risk-parity style portfolios:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KA7U8xT_2Dk
Portfolio Visualizer Asset Correlation Calculator: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations
Portfolio Charts Master Portfolio Analyzer: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/

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Episode 6: Portfolio Reviews As Of August 7, 2020 And An Explanation Of The Golden Ratio Portfolio Aug 09, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also discuss the Golden Ratio Portfolio in depth, including how it was constructed and how it compares with the Total Stock Market and 60/40 stock/bond portfolios over the past 50 years. Are you interested in a 30% better safe withdrawal rate? Then lend your ear.
Here is the link to the article about the Golden Ratio as mentioned in the episode: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio

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Episode 5: A Short History of Risk Parity and Asset Allocation (Part 2) Aug 05, 2020

In this follow-up to Episode 3, we explore the development of risk-parity style investing from the 1980s to the present day.
Links:
The All Weather Strategy Paper: Bridgewater Paper 2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc (granicus.com)
Risk Parity Portfolios: Efficient Portfolios Through True Diversification: https://www.panagora.com/assets/PanAgora-Risk-Parity-Portfolios-Efficient-Portfolios-Through-True-Diversification.pdf
Risk Parity: Silver Bullet Or A Bridge Too Far: chapter-4-from-managing-multiasset-strategies-2018.pdf (callan.com)

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Episode 4: Portfolio Reviews as of July 31, 2020 with a Focus on the Golden Butterfly Portfolio Aug 02, 2020

This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
We also discuss the Golden Butterfly Portfolio in depth. Links to more information about the Golden Butterfly and the theory behind it:
https://portfoliocharts.com/2015/09/22/catching-a-golden-butterfly/
https://portfoliocharts.com/2016/04/18/the-theory-behind-the-golden-butterfly/

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Episode 3: A Short History of Risk Parity and Asset Allocation (Part I) Jul 30, 2020

In this episode we explore the ancient origins of asset allocation and diversification, and how these ideas were expanded upon and implemented from the 1950s into the 1980s.
Links:
Bava Metzia 42a: https://steinsaltz.org/daf/bavametzia42/
70-year History of Investment Consulting: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357226-70-year-history-of-investment-consulting-1950minus-2020
Why the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong: And How You Can Find Safety and Profit in an Uncertain World: https://www.amazon.com/Best-Laid-Investment-Plans-Usually-Wrong/dp/0671672924

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Episode 2: Portfolio Reviews as of July 24, 2020 with a Focus on the All Seasons Portfolio Jul 27, 2020

In this episode we review the initial performance of our six sample risk-parity style portfolios, which are: (1) the All Seasons portfolio; (2) the Golden Butterfly portfolio; (3) the Golden Ratio portfolio; (4) the Risk Parity Ultimate portfolio; (5) the Accelerated Permanent Portfolio; and (6) the Aggressive Fifty-Fifty. After that, we discuss the All Seasons portfolio in more detail. Additional information and the referenced data may be found at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

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Episode 1: Introduction to Risk Parity Radio Jul 25, 2020

This is a brand new podcast in the personal finance space for the do-it-yourself investor. It is about asset allocations using risk-parity principles to construct robust portfolios.
In this episode we answer five basic questions:
1. What is Risk Parity Radio?
2. Who is this podcast for?
3. Gee willikers, what does "Risk Parity" mean anyway, Uncle Frank?
4. How will will make this real and actionable for you?
5. How can you get involved?
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