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    Business

    RenMac

    Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ……….

    This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.

    This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac’s interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.

    Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information.

    Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive.

    Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.

    Advertise

    Copyright: © Copyright Jeff deGraaf

    • Apple Podcasts
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    Latest Episodes:
    RenMac Off-Script: Is Kamala Under-Valued? Oct 25, 2024

    RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.

    RenMac Off-Script: Banker in Training Oct 18, 2024

    RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.

    RenMac Off-Script: Trump Bump Oct 11, 2024

    RenMac discusses:

    1. The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election.
    2. The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation is impacting the Fed’s trajectory.
    3. The overbought condition in yields and the marginal benefit it should have for cyclicals vs defensive names.
    4. The bullish spread between equity volatility (VIX) and corporate credit
    5. Bitcoin Commercial Hedger positioning.
    RenMac Off-Script: A Jobs Jolt Oct 04, 2024

    RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China’s historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals vs defensives, political October surprises and the upcoming inflation data.

    RenMac Off-Script: China Turns Sep 27, 2024

    Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.

    RenMac Off-Script: Sticking the Landing Sep 20, 2024

    RenMac discusses the expected 50bps rate cut, implications for future cuts, the trajectory of the data going forward, the market impact and the latest polling around battleground states.

    RenMac Off-Script: Trump Takes De Bait Sep 13, 2024

    RenMac discusses why 50bps makes the most sense, the impact the debate is likely to have on the election, the changes in capital requirements at banks, and some bright spots in energy and silver.

    RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Pin 50 Sep 06, 2024

    RenMac discusses the weak August employment report, why the next decision really is less about consensus and more about what Powell thinks, a preview of the Trump/Harris debate, and the defensive nature in the equity markets.

    RenMac Off-Script: Game Day Walk Thru Aug 30, 2024

    With Neil and Steve on the beach, Jeff and Kevin walk through the market’s message, where the strength and weakness are building and fading, and what it means for the remainder of the year. The team dives deeper into the historical reactions seen by sectors and industries after the Fed’s first rate-cut in a cycle. Happy Labor Day weekend.

    RenMac Off-Script: Revisionist History Aug 23, 2024

    The RenMac Team discusses the DNC and latest in the general election campaign, the folly of price controls, the sharp downward revision to payroll employment and what it means for the Fed ahead of Jackson Hole, the recent breakout in gold, balance sheet versus income recession, and how tight policy is based on the gap between two-year yields and the Federal Funds Rate.

    RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Markets vs Media: Which One is Gaslighting? Aug 16, 2024

    RenMac discusses the current sensitive state of markets and the possible impacts of the upcoming decision on rate cuts, Kamala’s potential economic policies, the DNC, and the influence of the presidential election on downballot races, and what next week’s data (as well as Jackson Hole) could mean for markets going forward.

    RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Claims, Cuts, and Complacency Aug 09, 2024

    RenMac discusses initial jobless claims, the baseline for rate cuts, and the growing risk of complacency from the Fed and market participants, Kamala’s VP pick (why wasn’t it Shapiro?) and the changing presidential odds, the Nikkei and the liquidity picture, as well as important data on deck for next week.

    RenMac Off-Script: The Fed's Folly Aug 02, 2024
    RenMac Off-Script: Markets are Oversold, but is Kamala Overbought? Jul 26, 2024

    RenMac discusses Harris’s candidacy and her potential picks for Vice President, GDP, inflation data, and what they mean for the Fed’s upcoming rate cuts, dark crosses in yields (why is the two-year yield down?), oversold conditions throughout the market, and important political and economic information to come next week.

    RenMac Off-Script: The Fed Will Cut Rates, but Will the Democrats Cut Biden? Jul 20, 2024

    RenMac discusses the possibility and potential implications of Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, his likely replacement (will Democrats bypass Harris?), when and how many times the Fed will cut rates, small cap versus large cap, what recent and upcoming data can show about markets, and the future of the semiconductor trade.

    RenMac Off-Script: Everyone Biden Time: Rate Cuts to Politics Jul 12, 2024

    RenMac discusses Biden’s struggles and how the Democrats will move forward, Trump’s potential picks for Vice President (is Nikki Haley his best option?), weaker inflation and the potential for a September rate cut, expectations for the retail and auto sectors, and the disconnect between the three Russell indices.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation on the Labor Market with Guy Berger Jul 11, 2024

    Guy Berger is someone I had the good fortune of overlapping with at Bank of America. Over the years, Guy has become my go-to resource for all questions on the labor market. After many years as the Principal Economist at LinkedIn, he is now the Director of Research at the Burning Glass Institute, a research outfit focusing on labor market trends.
    Here, we go through many of the hot topics on the labor market as it pertains to business/market economics: the gap between the Household and Establishment Survey, how important are revisions to the data, what’s the impact of immigration on the employment data, and much more.
    We hope you enjoy our conversation.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Walter Deemer Jul 06, 2024

    Bullish Sentiment Thru the Ages
    Jeff deGraaf talks with Walt Deemer about the elevated bullish sentiment, stories from the nifty-fifty, differentiating good investments vs good companies, the importance of expectations vs narratives, and how it applies today. Enjoy the Holiday Weekend.

    RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls and Politics Jul 05, 2024

    RenMac discusses payrolls and what this means for the Fed in lieu of next week’s core inflation number, what the betting markets are telling us about Kamala Harris’ role on the presidential ticket, how performance in the first half of the year affects the second half, and cyclicality in the current market.

    RenMac Off-Script: Debate & Switch? Jun 28, 2024

    RenMac discusses the options for Democrats to replace Biden following the debate, how the stock market has reacted to the presidential polls, why Neil thinks the balance of risk suggests that the Fed could make a minor monetary mistake by not cutting in September, the symptoms of liquidity and what the movement in Bitcoin and IPOs might suggest, and why the first two weeks of July suggest strong seasonality from a historical standpoint.

    RenMac Off-Script: Biden's Burden Jun 21, 2024

    RenMac discusses why housing is hurting, why economic growth in 2024 will be worse than in 2023, how the Fed's risk distribution has shifted, why this is not a momentum market, the potential outside reversal in Nvidia, the positive correlation between banks and yields, and the dynamics of the upcoming presidential debate.

    RenMac Off-Script: The Fed Needs To Get On With It Jun 14, 2024

    RenMac discusses whether global election trends will impact the U.S., the significantly different U.S. presidential election forecasts between 538 and the Economist, the improving inflation picture, why admission by omission suggests a September interest rate cut is likely, how oversold conditions are creating opportunities, and why things may be setting up nicely for a soft landing.

    RenMac Off-Script: The Big Bull In Little China Jun 07, 2024

    RenMac discusses the latest payroll print, the political impact of the Trump conviction one week later, the impact of lower yields, the global strength of utilities, and the big bull turn in China.

    RenMac Off-Script: Conviction Conundrum May 31, 2024

    RenMac discusses the political impact of the Trump conviction, how growth isn’t getting away from the Fed, sentiment and the post momentum hang-over industries, and trends vs momentum in China.

    RenMac Off-Script: Nvidia’s Scary Shadow Over S&P May 24, 2024

    RenMac discusses why the Nvidia phenomenon may have overshadowed some broader concerns, why the bond market was down on the PMI print, why the consensus is onsides now on growth, a high alert for housing, capitulation suggests softness in equities for 2024, little change in polls but big change in betting markets in 2024 presidential race.

    RenMac Off-Script: Debate Bait May 17, 2024

    RenMac discusses how Biden agreed to debate on his terms, the encouraging inflation print, how much of Biden’s billions have been spent and what Trump could do with them, improving beta vs. average momentum, the peak in short rates, strong election year seasonality, and why China is looking like the U.S. in 2009.

    RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Consumer Conundrums May 10, 2024

    RenMac discusses how the FDIC fallout may play out next week, the improvement in small banks, the consumer credit conundrum, the short rate risk/reward scenario, and the consumer momentum in China.

    RenMac Off-Script Podcast: The Economy Isn’t Getting Away From The Fed May 03, 2024

    RenMac discusses the economic data dump this week, why the realized inflation data will be important, Powell’s case for weaker inflation, why the voters remain sour on the economy, whether Johnson will be removed as speaker now or after November, and the outlook for Chinese growth.

    RenMac Off-Script: Closer To The End? Apr 26, 2024

    RenMac discusses the low GDP and high inflation reports, how volatile trade figures may have skewed the data to the downside, why the consensus is probably right about growth, the mean reversion in the battleground state polls, why the Supreme Court may delay the federal cases against Trump, how price may be driving sentiment, why you want to be long in the summer months in a presidential election year, what is driving the increase in the 10yr yields, and the relationship between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ.

    RenMac Off-Script: 3 Pillars of a Low Apr 19, 2024

    Jeff goes solo off-script to talk about the recent equity weakness, the things he looks for to call a tactical bottom and where we stand currently.

    RenMac Off-Script: Cuts Delayed Not Derailed Apr 12, 2024

    RenMac discusses the implications of the global gold rush led by central banks; why the latest inflation report still points to when, not if the Fed cuts interest rates; how a cooling labor market means consumers could struggle to absorb higher inflation; the risks Powell & Co. face in deciding to do (or not do); why the adage “sell in May and go away” doesn’t work; and how to take advantage of the summer trading months in a presidential election year.

    RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Eclipse the Bears Apr 05, 2024

    RenMac discusses the bullish jobs number, why it might not keep the Fed from cutting in June, how it might send neutral rates higher, why No Labels ended up with no candidate and who benefits, how rising geopolitical risks are raising prices at the pump for voters, the impact of broader market participation, and why manufacturing is picking up.

    RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Powell Told Us What He Told Us Mar 28, 2024

    RenMac discusses Fed Governor Waller’s comments, context, and contrast with Powell; reconciling GDI and GDP; Biden’s bump in the Bloomberg battleground state poll, and some evidence of the momentum trade unwinding.

    RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Political & Productivity Paradox Mar 22, 2024

    RenMac discusses how Michigan may determine the 2024 presidential outcome and how it is driving Biden’s EV policies, why the six months of progress on inflation is outweighing the previous two months of setbacks for Powell & Co., June cut looking likely, the productivity paradox and how it takes time to realize the gains from AI, why a partial gov’t shutdown on Monday isn’t likely to happen, why the expansion of internal highs suggests a bull market, and how energy and materials are performing better on an absolute basis.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Ethan Harris Mar 20, 2024

    For nearly three decades, Ethan Harris was a fixture on Wall Street. After a stint at the New York Fed, Ethan went to Lehman Brothers where he served as the firm’s Chief US Economist. I had the good fortune of working for and learning from Ethan during his time as Head of Global Economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, from where he retired last year.Ethan is a wealth of knowledge, not only for his insights on the economy and Fed watching – but we also get into detail on how he approaches the role of a Wall Street economist and how that compares to the role of an academic. How to separate the noise from signal in the economic data and how to pick your spots against the consensus. To me, he’s set the standard for those that have come after him in the business.

    RenMac Off-Script Podcast: TikTok Trade Mar 15, 2024

    Neil and Steve welcome Kevin to the podcast to discuss Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s desire to replace Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the House vote to put TikTok on the clock, how China might retaliate against U.S. companies, what copper and commodities are saying, how the U.S. economic outperformance is benefiting Mexico and Canada, and why soft retail sales may not derail the overall solid US consumer story.

    RenMac Off-Script: Bullish Zone Mar 08, 2024

    RenMac discusses how the payroll print is bullish for the soft-landing camp, why you should keep watching the unemployment number, how both parties saw what they wanted to in Biden’s SOTU, the takeaways from Powell’s testimony, why there is still momentum in the market, how gold is breaking out, and why you should be careful with sentiment.

    RenMac Off-Script: Momentum Vs. Beta Mar 01, 2024

    RenMac discusses the relief rally in response to inflation data coming in as expected, why a stronger economy doesn’t linearly map to inflation, how a May Fed cut could be underpriced, another gov’t can-kick, how Michigan sent warning signs to both candidates, whether Haley will still in after Super Tuesday, the firmness of global indices, and relative weakness in utilities and staples.

    RenMac Off-Script: Fiscal and Fed Fiasco Feb 23, 2024

    Howard joins Jeff and Steve to discuss the depressing U.S. debt outlook from the CBO, how the transformation of Japan’s economy is impacting global markets, the pace of the Fed slowing quantitative tightening, the need to monitor the impact of 10yr yields on equities, why a lower level of bank reserves is an important indicator, why one should be careful of the Nvidia impact on the broader market moving forward, how contraction can lead to vulnerability, why biotech may present better buying opportunities than tech, and the politics behind the upcoming Republican primary in SC and the Democrat primary in MI.

    RenMac Off-Script: No-mentum Feb 16, 2024

    RenMac discusses the volatility around the recent economic data, moderating inflation expectations, the correlation between air freight and industrial production, the crowded calendar that awaits Congress when it returns, why Neil wasn’t impressed with his Moscow grocery experience, what is and is not a momentum market, and whether bond yields are a better buy now or later.

    RenMac Off-Script: How Much Did Hur Hurt Biden? Feb 09, 2024

    RenMac discusses the good, bad, and ugly for Biden in the Special Counsel report, Neil’s affinity for pop culture, how stronger productivity may be keeping inflation under control, why China may be so bad that it is good, the limited U.S. exposure to FX risk from China, and whether presidential race odds are influencing the S&P.

    RenMac Off-Script: A Flukey Month Feb 02, 2024

    RenMac discusses why the flukey payroll report may reduce the Fed’s sense of urgency, why the weather mattered in January, how a boost in productivity may also be a boost to earnings, how employment is more of a byproduct of a strong economy than a cause, whether the disconnect between economists and voters on the Biden economy is narrowing, why the Jan. 6th trial may be the one that could move voters, polling context, why Michigan matters, and whether consolidation can be contained.

    RenMac Off-Script: Extreme Options Jan 26, 2024

    RenMac discusses Nikki Haley’s prospects, Trump’s Veep-stakes, how voters are viewing an improving economy, the path of least resistance, why Tesla is starting to crack, whether homebuilders should be worried, how pockets of tech options could be concerning, and why Chinese tech sentiment may be setting up nicely.

    RenMac Off-Script: Retail Sales & Retail Politics Jan 19, 2024

    RenMac discusses why Nikki Haley’s path to the presidency beyond NH is not a bright one, how better than expected retail sales and residential housing figures suggest a strong economic outlook, the great debate over when and how much the Fed will cut interest rates, why Fed Governor Waller is not riding the team transitory train, why the weakness in materials is good news not bad news, and why conditions are looking good for small caps.

    RenMac Off-Script: Canceling That 70s Show Jan 12, 2024

    RenMac discusses why markets shrugged off the latest CPI miss, how the Fed places more emphasis on the PCE, why data may be driving the Fed more than politics, why U.S. bonds are more bullish than elsewhere, how more states resemble IA than NH in the GOP Primary, the importance of Taiwan’s presidential election, the parallels between the 1970s and today, and SEC chair Gary Gensler’s reluctant Bitcoin ETF approval.

    RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Point To Productivity Jan 05, 2024

    RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print points to productivity gains, why 3-to-4 rate cuts are more likely than 6, how geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Taiwan could upend the 2024 economic outlook, global market breakouts, and the broadening of market gains beyond the magnificent 7.

    RenMac Off-Script: Yes, There is a Santa Clause Dec 29, 2023

    Renmac discusses how dollar weakness contributes to global growth, the history of 8-consecutive weeks of S&P gains, the latest in the primary ballot battle, excessive inflows and the busy week/month ahead. Happy New Year.

    RenMac Off-Script: Trash vs. Treasure Dec 22, 2023

    RenMac discusses how the latest PCE print supports a March Fed cut but why it may not go as far as the market is pricing, whether animal spirits can lead to irrational exuberance, why trash is outperforming treasure, why the U.S. Supreme Court may reach a different decision than the CO Supreme Court regarding Trump’s eligibility.

    RenMac Off-Script: Escape Velocity Dec 15, 2023

    RenMac discusses the escape velocity in equities, Powell’s press conference, why a March cut is looking more likely, who wore the boldest sweater on TV, why the rate of inflation is declining despite rather than b/c of the Inflation Reduction Act, the breakout in banks and REITs, and frothy animal spirits.

    RenMac Off-Script: Entrenched Disinflation Dec 08, 2023

    RenMac discusses how the latest jobs print shows a stabilizing workforce, why the disinflation process is more entrenched now, the contraction in 2-year yields and BBB spreads, how the latest Republican presidential debate did little to change the race, the link between aid to Ukraine’s border and the southern border, and why ’95 might be the best comparable for the Fed.

    RenMac Off-Script: Fed Cuts: When NOT If Dec 01, 2023

    RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why you should watch Waller, ’95 vs. ’98 debate, the proverbial “everybody” problem, the gap between strategists and the spot price, tis the seasonality, Santos precedent, and Neil riffs w/ disdain on GOP mega donors.

    RenMac Off-Script: Yield Dependency Nov 24, 2023

    Jeff and Steve discuss Neil’s holiday traditions, the impact of a third-party presidential candidate, why Republicans feel better about their chances to take the Senate, yield dependency, why healthcare might be well- positioned for next year.

    RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Affirmation Nov 17, 2023

    RenMac discusses why the latest inflation data reinforces an extended pause, the disinflation pipeline, why real yields are a good predictor of nominal rate markets, capitulation vs. correction, why overbought isn’t necessarily a bad thing, why Taiwan looms large over Biden-Xi meetings, and how Congress passed a stopgap but punted on all the difficult decisions.

    RenMac Off-Script: Losing Control Nov 10, 2023

    RenMac discusses what Tuesday’s election results mean for next year, the Republican debates, the emergence of new third-party presidential candidates, why yields are coming down and how that is impacting equities, how the usually boring treasury auctions are becoming more interesting, why the latest unemployment report may impact the Fed by opening the door to cuts, and whether Treasury and the Fed are losing control over the fiscal situation.

    RenMac Off-Script: Nonlinear Risks Nov 03, 2023

    RenMac discusses how the soft payroll print will impact the Fed, how the recent strikes may have impacted the data, why good things happened to housing, the anti-momentum trade heading into yearend, the importance of Nov. 17th to the gov’t shutdown, and Biden-Xi’s APEC meeting, and why Nikki Haley may have a low ceiling in the GOP primary.

    RenMac Off-Script: Fed vs. GDP Oct 27, 2023

    RenMac discusses why Gavin Newsom is meeting with Xi Jinping, why “Mike Johnson” is a leading Google search, the momentum behind 3Q GDP, why the Fed is more forecast vs data dependent, how fiscal stimulus is likely to pressure yields, the deteriorating breadth in equities in the face of strong seasonality.

    RenMac Off-Script: Don’t Follow the Easy Path Oct 20, 2023

    RenMac discusses Powell’s speech on the outlook, why the Fed is probably done for 2023 but why the economy is not, why builders might be a buy despite elevated rates and why gold is a sell despite high geopolitical tensions, and the latest in Jim Jordan’s ongoing fight to become Speaker of the House.

    RenMac Off-Script: House of Horrors Oct 13, 2023

    RenMac discuss the latest political drama around the House Speakership race, the prospect of an acting Speaker working with Democrats, why the upside surprise in inflation this week does not change the Fed’s near-term calculus, why it is not worth using geopolitical events as a basis for a market call, and why the rise in yields is providing an alternative to stocks.

    RenMac Off-Script: Grasping At Straws Oct 06, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the upside surprise in payrolls, why the bears are grasping at straws, how the UAW strike could impact future prints, the increased yield sensitivity of sectors, how McCarthy’s ouster adds to the D.C. drama, the seasonal impact on markets, and how tactical conditions are providing an opportunity for the bulls.

    RenMac Off-Script: Cracking Gold Sep 29, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses why hiking is harder for the Fed, the danger of focusing on headlines rather than data, cracks in gold, well-behaved BBB spreads, why a rally without beta is troublesome, more motion than progress on avoiding a gov’t shutdown, and the politics of replacement regarding the Senate seats for Feinstein and Menendez.

    RenMac Off-Script: No Capitulation Sep 22, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses why the gov’t shutdown could last a while, why the market reaction was more surprising than the Fed’s decision to erase cuts for next year, why the Fed is unlikely to hike in December either, why the 2-year yield and BBB spread usually respond Fed but not this time, not yet oversold in equities, close to improving seasonality, and why Trump is going to the MI and not the second GOP debate.

    RenMac Off-Script: 3Ss (Shutdown, Strike, and Student Loans) Sep 15, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the odds and economic impact (or lack thereof) of a gov’t shutdown, why not all inflation data is created equal, whether short-term soft-landing enthusiasm now could lead to inflationary consequences later, why reduced volatility in line with credit conditions, intra-market correlation, and the decline in Bitcoin..
    Also, please join us Monday at 11am for a call with former World Bank President David Malpass. CLICK HERE to Register

    RenMac Off-Script: Fed Following Financial Flow Sep 08, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses recent polling around Biden’s age, Nikki Haley’s chances, the anecdotal wage stories, responding to capital conditions, what the firming energy story is saying, and Neil’s recession odds for next year.

    RenMac Off-Script: Data Deluge Sep 01, 2023

    Neil and Steve digest the economic data dump, why August may have been a peculiar month that understated jobs, why cyclicals are looking stronger, why the Fed may still be in the woods, the disconnect between data and voter perceptions of Bidenomics, the September UAW strike, why Mitch McConnell matters, 2024 politics and the Fed.

    RenMac Off-Script: Fireworks in Russia not the GOP Debate Aug 25, 2023

    RenMac discusses Trump’s GA mugshot strategy, Neil’s opinion on the Indian guy and gal in the Republican primary, why Bullard sounds like Neil on the U.S. economic outlook, BBB-spreads not following the breakout script, cracks in consumer discretionary could be causing top-formations, previewing Powell at Jackson Hole, and Putin’s power move with the Prigozhin explosion.

    RenMac Off-Script: Retail Robustness Aug 18, 2023

    RenMac discusses the breakout in 10-year yields, why Neil thinks the Fed is still offsides on growth, the political impact (or lack thereof) of the latest Trump indictment, first oversold S&P condition since last fall, early internal indications of an uptrends, and the early expansion in the put/call ratio.

    RenMac Off-Script: Suckers for a Soft-Landing? Aug 11, 2023

    Neil and Steve discuss the Biden administration’s actions towards China, how the Fed might be getting sucked into the soft-landing story, and whether the Fed still has more work to do in the context of an above-trend growth economy.

    RenMac Off-Script: Still In The Woods Aug 04, 2023

    RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print will not provide comfort to the Fed, why employment is slowing as the economy is ramping up, why China charts are looking better than their economic reports, whether the 2024 election will resemble 2020 or 2016, how Manchin’s third-party threat could help rather than hurt Biden-s re-election, the politics surrounding the Fitch downgrade, and the Japanese yen trade following the BoJ pivot.

    RenMac Off-Script: Precision vs. Accuracy Jul 28, 2023

    RenMac discusses the bullish GDP data, receding recession risk, knowing what you don’t know, the low odds of pulling off two soft-landings, how relying on doubtful data and rigidity has led to capitulation, precision vs. accuracy, Mitch McConnell’s health, the increased impeachment inquiry odds following the Hunter Biden plea deal collapse, why extreme beta is more likely to be a liability than in asset, and keeping an eye on the yen.

    RenMac Off-Script: Betting on Beta Jul 21, 2023

    RenMac discusses how to adjust the different economic outlook scenarios based on recent data, why a third-party candidate would pull more votes away from Biden, how Biden’s green push is costing him the support of autoworkers (and Springsteen a song), and the risks of betting on beta.

    RenMac Off-Script: Lower Inflation = Less Fed Pressure Jul 14, 2023

    RenMac discusses how the latest inflation report will take pressure off the Fed and increases the odds of a soft landing, why bull steepening is more of a recession signal than an inverted yield curve, why markets reacted accordingly, whether Bidenomics will help or hurt inflation and Biden’s re-election effort.

    RenMac Off-Script: Keeping Dry Powder Jul 07, 2023

    Renmac discuss why our elevated yield impact model and seasonality favors keeping some dry powder, but not the same type found in the White House this week. How cocaine-gate is overshadowing the “Bidenomics” push? Why the latest payroll print shows no signs of recession and is unlikely to prevent the Fed from hiking two more times this year? All in today’s episode.

    RenMac Off-Script: Bull Boost Jun 30, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses Neil’s ten-year anniversary trip and why he feels there will be no recession, the durable strength of the consumer, why the Fed may not deliver the shock needed for the bears, why cyclicals are consistent with a bull market, and the odd situation in Russia.

    RenMac Off-Script: Powell’s Performance Jun 23, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses Powell’s performance before lawmakers, why the Fed may be offsides on housing and economic growth, data still supporting a housing trifecta, how a presidential election could complicate future Fed moves, the politics of the Hunter Biden plea deal, and why utilities and BBB spreads are supporting a bullish outlook.

    RenMac Off-Script: The Powell Pause Jun 16, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the market response to the Fed pause, why the risk for the Fed is taking their feet off the brakes too soon, receding recession risk, contained credit spreads, and the growing threat of a September spending shutdown in Congress.

    RenMac Off-Script: Incrementally Capitulating Jun 09, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the labor market, the gravitation towards beta, looking for contraction in BBB spreads, the growing Republican rift on defense spending, the politics and the precedent of the latest Trump indictment, market incrementalism towards cyclicality.

    RenMac Off-Script: Plenty of Payrolls Jun 02, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses whether the strong payrolls number will impact the Fed, why a June skip is still likely, the winners and losers of the debt limit debate, why semiconductors are a winner in the stock market, and bullish conditions in the market cycle clock for a new month.

    RenMac Off-Script: Ronning For President May 26, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the debt limit calendar, why the onus is on the growth bears to justify their position, why housing could be more important moving forward, noncompliant credit markets, how the consensus consistently underestimates job growth, the weakness in China, and the Ron DeSantis campaign launch.

    RenMac Off-Script: Debt Limit Diffused May 19, 2023

    RenMac discusses why it’s increasingly likely a debt limit agreement is complete before the June 1 deadline, the entry of Florida Governor DeSantis in the 2024 race for the White House, the strong economic data over the last week and why the consensus is still offsides, and the breakout in software at the expense of materials.

    RenMac Off-Script: Debt Limit Drama May 12, 2023

    RenMac discusses the improving odds around a debt limit deal, how the latest inflation data bolsters the chances for a Fed pause this summer, the flukiness in jobless claims because of Massachusetts, why complaining about lack of breadth is really an excuse for underperformance, and gift ideas for Mother’s Day.

    RenMac Off-Script: Confidence Game May 05, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the latest jobs blowout, why the Fed is less likely to cut now, the importance of nominal incomes, how the banking consternation is not causing a bigger market reaction, why breadth improves to match the market but not the other way around, little change in the put/call ratios, and the latest on the debt limit drama.

    RenMac Off-Script: Logic Isn’t Truth Apr 28, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the view from London, the mixed message from breadth and international equities, strength in the housing market, the drag on inventories in 1Q23, why the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be the rematch that few people want, and how a recession could be the bears worst nightmare.

    RenMac Off-Script: Homebuilder Highs Apr 21, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses Philadelphia vs. the Empire economic data, how crude oil and yields are exhibiting downtrend characteristics, whether the Fed’s next move after a pause would be a hike or a cut, homebuilder optimism, Neil’s love of nuance, the latest act in the D.C. debt limit drama, why Biden is betting on a rematch with Trump, and a potential bounce for banks.

    RenMac Off-Script: M2’s Declining Relevance Apr 14, 2023

    The RenMac Team is joined by financials/payments analyst Howard Mason to discuss the turmoil in the banking industry, what the latest data means for the Fed’s future moves (or lack thereof), the EPA’s aspirational EV emissions proposal, the declining relevancy of M2, and the ebullience in equities.

    RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Give Fed Benefit of Time Apr 07, 2023

    RenMac discusses why the March employment report is a win for the soft-landing bulls, the Fed’s wait and see approach with a tightening bias, the outperformance of global equities, the intrinsic value of gold, the Taiwanese president’s “transit” trip to the US, and Xi’s diplomatic push into OPEC.

    RenMac Off-Script: Ham Sandwiches Can Be Indicted Mar 31, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses Neil’s bourbon trail trip, Trump indictment politics, the Fed’s failure to prevent the collapse of SVB, where is San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, why Powell’s next move is still more likely a hike after skipping May, the importance of housing, tech breaking out, why seasonality and sentiment are still trending in the right direction.

    RenMac Off-Script: No Middle Ground in a Banking ‘Crisis’ Mar 24, 2023

    Blurb The RenMac Team discusses the Fed’s 25 bps move, how one’s view of a banking crisis determines their outlook on future interest decisions, the politics of a pending Trump indictment, whether the Fed’s tolerance for inflation is higher now, why technology is breaking out, and whether REITs are so bad they’re good.

    RenMac Off-Script: Banking March Madness Mar 17, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the impact of SVB collapse on the banking industry, how it is becoming politicized, whether SVB was a feature or bug of the Fed’s actions, why the Fed is likely to go 25 bps next week, deposit circularity, the befuddling bitcoin bounce, cyclicals performing better than defensives, and big tech breaking out.

    RenMac Off-Script: Neutral Needs To Be Higher Mar 10, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the latest payroll print, why the Fed’s work is not done, the higher bar for not going 50bps, why neutral needs to be higher, Biden’s revival of the Build Back Better budget request and why it is DOA with a Republican House, industrials continue to perform, discretionary is still intact, losing defensives like utilities and stapes, and banks are oversold.

    RenMac Off-Script: Psyched for Cyclicality Mar 03, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the improvement in global manufacturing and services PMIs, why a need to rebuild inventories could lead to strong manufacturing growth, how the rest of the world is following the early cycle script, the value vs. values debate regarding ESG on the Hill, the Supreme Court’s skepticism over Biden’s student loan relief plan, why the market cycle clock is in the bullish direction, the deterioration in defensives like health care, and reasons to get psyched for cyclicality.

    RenMac Off-Script: An Anniversary Not Worth Celebrating Feb 24, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the Ukraine anniversary, China’s increasing role in the conflict, Dow theory and the movement of averages for tomorrow, whether oversold conditions can hold, the return of NPV, how conditions could shift towards value, and why active could benefit over passive moving forward.

    RenMac Off-Script: February Can’t Cool the Data Feb 17, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the new CBO debt limit “X-date” forecast, how Kevin McCarthy can use his Taiwan trip as leverage to get spending concessions from Biden, why the economic data is increasing the odds of the Fed raising interest rates closer to 6% this year, the post-breakout pause, improving credit conditions, and rate resiliency.

    RenMac Off-Script: Great Expectations Feb 10, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses Biden’s State of the Union address, 2024 implications, why the Fed is likely to maintain its higher-for-longer approach to interest rates, housing and Europe looking good despite expectations, why tech remains tricky outside of semis, and how good economic news next week might be bad for bonds.

    RenMac Off-Script: Trust the Thrust Feb 03, 2023

    The RenMac Team discusses China flying balloons over Montana, why the huge payroll number makes Powell look offsides, an optimistic outlook for autos, market haters on social media, the breadth thrust and why there is beauty in simplicity, and why the trend is moving in the bullish direction.

    RenMac Off-Script: Unlikely to Spontaneously Combust Jan 27, 2023

    RenMac discusses the 4th quarter GDP numbers, the unlikeliness of a near-term recession, the confirming indications from equities, the latest on the debt limit and next week’s important data.

    RenMac Off-Script: Tilting Towards Cyclicality Jan 20, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the debt limit debate, the poor December economic data, why the narrative may still be moving in a positive direction moving forward, the tilt towards cyclicality, the impact of global green subsidies, the market pricing in 25bps hikes to get 5%, and market purgatory levels.

    RenMac Off-Script: Soft now, hard later? Jan 13, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the DOJ’s classification conundrum, the latest consumer price inflation print, why the soft landing thesis might only be temporary, the improvement of discretionary against staples, and early momentum indicators.

    RenMac Off-Script: How Low Can You Go? Jan 06, 2023

    The RenMac team discusses the latest in the speaker spectacle in the House, the latest payroll print, how the lower unemployment rate will make it harder to slow wage increases and alter the Fed’s trajectory, no momentum despite the Market Cycle Clock being in the bullish zone, cyclicals remain in the leadership position, why the government may be more of a tailwind to consumers, and the importance of 3700 number for the S&P 500.

    RenMac Off-Script: On the Recession Train Too Soon Dec 16, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses Trump’s decline and DeSantis’s rise amongst Rs in the polls, Congress kicking the gov’t funding can to next week, the Fed saying that recession is more likely next year, Neil’s skepticism that economic growth will slow significantly in the short-term, improving consumer discretionary conditions, bear market prevalence in the S&P, and why Boeing could be an economic growth engine next year.

    RenMac Off-Script: Tis the Seasonal Dec 09, 2022

    The RenMac Team discuss whether the new jobs claims data will impact the Fed’s moves, how seasonality impacts unemployment, stronger than expected PPI data, why Sinema said sayonara to the Democratic Party, Republican candidate quality costs them GA again, contrarian discretionary opportunity, and moderating sentiment despite the recent rally.

    RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, Powell & PMI Dec 02, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses Powell’s speech, how the payroll report threw a gut-punch into the soft-landing story, why we’re still searching for a slowdown in the economy, the expansion in the consumer discretionary sector, why the bear market may not be over, Congress shifting to omnibus now that rail strike has been averted, the GA Senate race odds, and distortion and deterioration in the crypto markets.

    RenMac Off-Script: MAGA is Nada Nov 18, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the implications of a divided government, why the economy might not be slowing as fast as some policymakers would prefer, why a weakening dollar could strengthen economic growth, what the trajectory of BBB spreads is saying, the puzzling breakout of industrials, and the importance of consumer discretionary to bull markets.

    RenMac Off-Script: Election and Inflation Surprises Nov 11, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the election results, whether Trump will back out of his Tuesday announcement, Ron DeSantis R nominee prospects surging, the better-than-expected CPI report, how the Fed will respond, why laggards could lead leaders, and how Thursday lit the market match.

    RenMac Off-Script: Why Midterms Matter For The Fed Nov 04, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the latest payroll print and why it will not impact the Fed’s outlook, why the bigger risk may be the Fed underdoing it, whether Rs will have a good night or a great night, whether Biden’s speech on democracy may not resonate with voters concerned about the economy, what a divided Congress would mean for the Fed, why Powell is being set up to be the fall guy, energy, industrials, and financials relative strength, and the S&P’s response to both overbought and oversold positions.

    RenMac Off-Script: Breaking the Markets is Easier than the Economy Oct 28, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the Republican resurgence in polls and betting markets, some concerns in the latest GDP report and how it might impact the Fed’s steps next year, why residential investment might not be as much of a drag moving forward, resetting the market to higher interest rates, the sentiment/seasonality mix, FANG pains, and the disconnect between what should be happening versus what is happening.

    RenMac Off-Script: This Time Is Different Oct 21, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the political winds shifting in favor of Rs ahead of the midterms, how the sluggish economy is impacting the housing market, the Fed’s eventual offramp away from 75bps but maybe not 50bps, why industrials are looking good on a relative basis, and the seasonal upside opportunity vs. skeptical sentiment.

    RenMac Off-Script: Powell’s Pivot Pushed? Oct 14, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the higher-than-expected inflation print, why the Fed will have to wait longer before pivoting, how betting markets are pricing in a higher chance of Rs winning the House and Senate, the greater odds of a GA Senate runoff, whether one day’s market reaction is the start of a broader trend, and how regional banks are looking more interesting.

    RenMac Off-Script: Payroll Print Won’t Prompt Powell Pivot Oct 07, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses why the payroll report will not change the Fed’s direction, why Powell believes higher unemployment is needed to lower inflation, taking the over on the Fed fund futures rate, October surprises impacting midterms with OPEC production cuts and Herschel Walker allegations, why seasonality is skewing towards equities, and why the decline in bond pricing may remain an issue in 2023.

    RenMac Off-Script: What’s the Bull Case Sep 30, 2022

    nMac talks about sentiment, it’s faults and features, what could go right, the valuation problem, why bonds are attractive, next week’s jobs number, and the latest on government spending bill.

    RenMac Off-Script: So Far, Not So Good Sep 23, 2022

    Renmac discusses the Fed’s neutral rate, persistent strength in employment, Neil’s personal microcosm of housing, the potential for a government shutdown, real rates and the implicit message behind Biden’s persistent gaffs.

    RenMac Off-Script: Claims vs Commodities Sep 16, 2022

    RenMac highlights Larry Sabato’s higher than consensus’ odds of R’s taking the Senate, the 100 vs 75bps debate, implications of $FDX news, relative performance of discretionary vs staples, importance of claims data, an historical indication of peaking 10yr yields and Pavlick’s travel suspiciously coinciding w/ PSU schedule.

    RenMac Off-Script: Offsides Overcompensation Sep 09, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses Queen Elizabeth’s legacy, why Biden is leaving Trump’s China tariffs in place, markets pricing in 150bps over the next three Fed meetings, labor market remaining hot, why the market cycle clock is tilting bullish, and how Rs are looking good to take the House but things are looking better for Ds to hold on to the Senate.

    RenMac Off-Script: Paying More For Less Sep 02, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses how the U.S. economy is not slowing down and what that means for the Fed moving forward, Biden’s political speech aimed at motivating the Democratic base ahead of the midterms, why the student loan aid announcement may not come to fruition, how companies may be overpaying for workers based on productivity levels, why the June low has a high probability of being the low for the cycle, and whether growing bearish sentiment is warranted.

    RenMac Off-Script: Jackson Hole or Black Hole Aug 26, 2022

    Neil and Jeff talk about the wages, housing, market momentum, trouble with forward guidance and the upcoming Fed meeting.

    RenMac Off-Script: Rainy Days In Vegas & For The GOP Aug 19, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses Neil’s recent trip to Vegas, Democrats improved political standing, Bullard’s motives and message, how this housing recession is different, momentum signals in the market, and the challenge in looking for sector leadership.

    RenMac Off-Script: A Summer of Skeptics Aug 12, 2022

    Biden’s 0% inflation victory lap, better/worse vs good/bad, momentum is unusually strong and bullish, how the Mar Largo raid increases odds of Trump candidacy, and the decline productivity from Neil’s trip to Vegas.

    RenMac Off-Script: Higher Highs and Lower Lows Aug 05, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses how the employment report cements a 75 bps move for the Fed and increases the odds of a hard landing, why the short-term curve should be steeper, whether jobs are a lagging indicator, recent political winds blowing in favor of Democrats, how the contraction in rates is impacting equities, and sentiment’s relationship with momentum and the impact on trend.

    RenMac Off-Script: Slowdown vs. Recession Jul 29, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses how Schumer outmaneuvered McConnell on the reconciliation package, Powell’s pivot to a pause vs. cut, SPX 20-day high signal, markets misreading the Fed, futures suggesting a kink in the curve, a slow bleed recession on the horizon, and debating the distinction between a slowdown and a recession.

    RenMac Off-Script: European Blowback Hits U.S. Jul 22, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses Jeff’s desire for more tattoos, Biden’s climate emergency non-declaration, the political impact of Biden getting COVID, how the European blowback is starting to impact the U.S., why markets might be wrong about the Fed’s reaction function, the market rally this past week, why we continue to prefer defensives over cyclicals, and why the ECB is more likely to make a policy mistake than the Fed.

    RenMac Off-Script: Staring into the Abyss Jul 15, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses a new record-high inflation report and whether 100bps is more likely, Powell latching to lagging indicators, is core services next, new Fed members impact on future rate decisions, markets looking beyond inflation to a recession, Biden's Saudi oil boost ask, and Manchin rules out tax hikes and climate bills in latest BBB talks.

    RenMac Off-Script: The Fed’s Hall of Mirrors Jul 08, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the latest jobs report and why it might embolden the Fed to go 75bps, whether employment is the best indicator of a potential recession, yield curve peaking, tightening credit conditions, why the inflation rate may be the new Fed put as opposed to the stock market, Scuhmer’s resurrection of Ds’ reconciliation bill, and Biden’s battles with billionaires over his energy and economic policies.

    RenMac Off-Script: Recession Preferable To Inflation Jul 01, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses Powell’s preference for a recession rather than an inflation policy mistake, the Fed’s preferred PCE measure running much lower than CPI, reading the reaction function of the Fed, the potential for a political pause or a lower rate hike pre-Midterm, a Supreme Court setback for ESG investors, handicapping the 2022 midterms, and why healthcare remains a good defensive play.

    RenMac Off-Script: Fed Up With The Fed Jun 24, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses if the Fed is cherry picking data, moderating growth, gas tax politics and prospects, keying in on core PCE, and Powell dismissing Russian invasion as the main driver of inflation.

    RenMac Off-Script: Powell Panics Jun 17, 2022

    Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the 75bps move as some signs of easing inflation present themselves. The team also discusses the political challenges of inflation, the upcoming Humphrey Hawkins Testimony, market’s message regarding inflation and the lack of capitulative signals in the market.

    RenMac Off-Script: Inflation: Peak or Plateau? Jun 10, 2022

    Neil and Steve discuss the latest CPI number, what Powell may say and not say next week, the inverse correlation between Biden’s approval ratings and inflation, and the politics of the Jan. 6th hearings.

    RenMac Off-Script: Another Goldilocks Jobs Report Jun 03, 2022

    The RenMac Team discusses the good news in the flattening unemployment rate, evidence building for the Fed to back off its 50bps pace, Yellen’s inflation omission admission, an improving global economic situation, defining peak inflation, and how the political die is likely cast ahead of November .

    RenMac Off-Script: Can Powell Pull A Maverick? May 27, 2022

    RenMac’s team discusses the Fed’s pivot, the hard or soft landing of the economy, the SPX bear market, the consistency in the Taiwan-Biden-gaffe, stubborn EPS revisions, Trump’s message resonating more with Republican voters than he is, the hard versus soft landing debate in the economy and markets, and Neil enters the housing supply pool and a shout-out thanks to our veterans.

    RenMac Off-Script: Markets Utter the “R” Word May 20, 2022

    RenMac discusses why the data doesn’t support recession narrative, the low but rising level of unemployment claims, the risk of a dovish policy pivot later this year, how healthcare and energy perform post-peak inflation, and why the party primary results will impact the 2022 and 2024 elections.

    RenMac Off-Script: A Peek at Peak Inflation May 13, 2022

    RenMac crew discusses the inflation data, the historical impact of peak inflation on markets and sectors, a first-hand look at the baby shortage formula and the impact on midterms.

    RenMac Off-Script: Economy Looking Better as Markets Look Worse May 06, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses April’s “goldilocks” employment report, why wage growth will moderate, how Powell’s comments this week increase the chance of a soft landing, energy industry and SPR politics, market turmoil and what to watch next week.

    RenMac Off-Script: Good Signs In Bad GDP Report Apr 29, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the latest GDP report, healthy customer demand suggests rebound in Q2, equity market efficiency, strong compensation growth impacting next week’s Fed meeting, impact of Trump’s potential Twitter return, COVID’s impact on Biden Fed nominees, FANG oversold conditions, and the impact of a strengthening dollar.

    RenMac Off-Script: Popping Bullard’s Balloon Apr 22, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses Bullard’s balloon, Fed’s likely three 50 bps hike pace, recession probability declining in face of economic momentum, parallels to 94 and 04, gap downs more prevalent in downtrends, pickup in defensive areas, Schumer dashes marijuana enthusiasts Hight hopes, and Congress retuning to a crowded calendar.

    RenMac Off-Script: Mimosas and the Fed Apr 08, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses Brainard’s comments on reducing the balance sheet and the market’s reaction, next week’s inflation report and how the Fed will respond, reallocation towards healthcare away from tech, immigration debate holds up COVID relief, Rs feeling better about ’22 and ’24, will the growth last, and the corporate credit market is remaining accommodative.

    RenMac Off-Script: Donna Summer is Dancing Apr 01, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the hot payroll number, climbing participation rate, Fed can go longer without breaking the economy, misunderstood inverted yield curve, 3 month and 30 year is a better signal, deterioration in late cycle sectors, peak inflation in next three months, Biden blurring the distinction between income and wealth.

    RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Domination Mar 25, 2022

    The RenMac Team discusses inflation historically being an energy problem, broadening inflation, Powell backing 50 bps hikes now, Biden’s economic assumptions in the budget request, Republicans registering voters at gas stations, COVID concerns subsiding, 20-day numbers looking good but not great, BB vs. BBB spreads narrowing, differentiation determining winners and losers.

    RenMac Off-Script: If Powell Was A Pilot Mar 18, 2022

    The RenMac team discuss the impact of Raskin’s withdrawal from the Fed, the dreaded death cross, staying out of the stew, trucker’s rise on Fed meeting, how the recession call is premature, and Powell’s challenges with landing the inflation plane.

    RenMac Off-Script: Inflation: The Russian Excuse Mar 11, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the muted market reaction to sky high inflation, what the two and ten year yields are telling us, bond market history of fighting tightening, Biden blaming inflation on Russia, pre-pandemic conditions returning, bears still outnumbering bulls in terms of sentiment, noise around the trends, withdraw of liquidity impacting marginal assets, Powell on tap next week.

    RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Boom Persists Mar 04, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the solid payroll numbers, confirmation that we’re in an inflationary boom, Biden’s failure to reset at the State of the Union, administration supporting polices that make inflation worse not better, and a lot of bearish sentiment but little momentum at the moment.

    RenMac Off-Script: Hiking Into a Boom Feb 18, 2022

    RenMac discusses the impact of the Fed hiking into a booming economy, the dwindling prospects of Raskin’s confirmation, peak inflation but shifting into services, geopolitical tensions and their impact on gold and energy, Iranian deal implications and the convenient political timing on mask removals before Biden’s State of the Union.

    RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Nation Feb 11, 2022

    RenMac team discusses opening Wordle words, NYC traffic, the broadening of inflation, permission for the Fed to go 50 bps in March, consumers resistance to higher prices, the counter-cyclical impact of short rates and oil, pandemic politics, and the unusual leadership of banks at this part in the cycle.

    RenMac Off-Script: Economy Is Learning To Live With COVID Feb 04, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the big jobs surprise amid Omicron fears, economic momentum for more aggressive rate hikes, the impact of a 49-50 Senate for Ds without Lujan on Biden’s Fed nominees and legislative agenda, international bonds breaking out, potential for asset deflation as the Fed fights inflation, cracks in concept capital, why apathy is better than emotion when picking stocks.

    RenMac Off-Script: Returns Drive Flows Jan 28, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses what a potential Russian invasion could mean for energy markets and inflation, compensation growth exceeding productivity growth, how returns drive flows, and a desire for a steepening curve.

    RenMac Off-Script: “Minor Incursion” Has Major Consequences Jan 21, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses Biden’s press conference and international ramifications, shifting sentiment with bears outweighing bulls, and the Fed’s proposed dot plot ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, signs the pandemic might be ending, and what yields are saying.

    RenMac Off-Script: I’ve Had a Bad Days, but Not Like Biden Jan 14, 2022

    RenMac reviews the political costs of inflation, how the new Fed nominees could impact policy, the importance of quality as liquidity normalizes, signs of a policy mistake and the outlook for 2022 as we progress toward the election.

    RenMac Off-Script: Focus on the Fed Jan 07, 2022

    The RenMac team discusses the collapse of concept capital, the Fed’s March glidepath, whether the Fed is offsides, inflationary buildup in the labor market, how Biden’s expected nominees will lead to politicization of the Fed, and tilting towards value.

    RenMac Off-Script: That Damned Yield Curve Dec 17, 2021

    RenMac debates Build Back Better vs Build Back at All, Powell’s latest thoughts, vacancies at the Fed, implications of the yield curve and the continued and expected deterioration of “concept finance”

    RenMac Off-Script: Powell Needs a Big Stick Dec 10, 2021

    Neil crashes “Off-script” from Miami to discuss inflation, while Steve views it thru the lens of fiscal policy and 2022 elections. Jeff discusses his discomfort with the flattening yield curve, the importance of the Fed’s balance sheet, and the fading of “concept capital”.

    RenMac Off-Script: Data Won’t Dissuade Fed Dec 03, 2021

    RenMac discusses today’s weak jobs headline but strong details, the curve conundrum given inflation expectations, the breakout in housing, will Kamala or Pete be the heir apparent, the history of inflation and the Fed as well as next week’s inflation data.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Moz Afzal Nov 20, 2021

    Moz Afzal is the CIO of EFG International in London. He is the lead manager of EFG's New Capital Strategic Portfolio and New Capital Tactical Opportunities Fund. He has been instrumental in building EFG's global footprint and shares with us how he has continued to manage money effectively while building a trusted team of analysts and PMs around him. Here is our conversation...

    RenMac Off-Script: Politicizing The Fed Nov 19, 2021

    The RenMac team discussed Neil’s London trip and how it is more open than NYC, strong economic indicators, the politics behind Biden’s Fed’s decision, the pressure to politicize the Fed like other institutions, a strong housing outlook moving forward, Neil’s upcoming, Cancun “work” trip, and debt limit drama returning in December.

    RenMac Off-Script: Powell Will Need a Stiff Spine Nov 12, 2021

    Renmac discusses inflation, the broadening of the data, the impact on the electorate and messaging out of Washington, the improvement in gold and the relative strength of cyclicals versus weakness in defensive names.

    RenMac Off-Script: Economy and Markets Melt Up In Q4 Nov 05, 2021

    RenMac discusses the acceleration in the labor market, Powell’s dovish press conference just before he was spotted at the White House, the breakout in small cap stocks and the re-opening trade, and what the strong GOP performance in this week’s elections (NJ/VA) mean for current fiscal negotiations.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with David Fingold Oct 30, 2021

    David Fingold of Dynamic Funds in Toronto brings over 30 years of business and investment experience to his clients, but his path to overseeing more than $13.5B in AUM is unique. David knows what it is to run a business successfully, how to finance it, and consequently what it means to invest in one. He's a bottoms-up stock picker who worries top-down, and his success speaks volumes.

    RenMac Off-Script: D’s Fumble in the Red Zone Oct 29, 2021

    RenMac walks thru the latest mis-queues out of Washington, what today’s employment cost data mean, the poor 3Q relative GDP performance (France was better), inflation expectations, gold and Virginia’s gubernatorial race.

    RenMac Off-Script: Inflation’s Flame Burning Powell’s Fingers Oct 22, 2021

    Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss Powell’s status, the surge in 5yr break evens, gold’s message, the importance of the Gubernatorial race in Virginia, the bearish relative trend change in consumer discretionary names, and the supportive sentiment and seasonal environment for stocks.

    RenMac Off-Script: Putin Is World’s Most Powerful Man Oct 15, 2021

    Join the RenMac team as they discuss the Congressional calendar crunch, how the growing reliance on reliance on fossil fuels is benefiting Vladmir Putin, the inflation boom, and how Biden’s climate policy discourages fossil fuel production.

    RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Won’t Dissuade the Fed Oct 08, 2021

    RenMac reviews McConnel’s strategy with Schumer, weaker payrolls and the implications for Fed policy, Late-cycle and sentiment, supply-chain issues, Manchin drops the F-bomb and the importance of better or worse versus good or bad on Wall Street.

    RenMac Off-Script: Self-inflicted Wounds from Washington Oct 01, 2021

    RenMac debates the political gamesmanship out of Washington, Senator Warren’s swipe at Powell, the resignation of 2 Fed hawks, the status of backlogs and end-user demand, the abundant oversold conditions in industry groups, rising yields and the bullish complacency found in corporate credit.

    RenMac Off-Script: Powell Pushes Yields Sep 24, 2021

    RenMac discusses this week’s hawkish message out of the Fed, the importance of the breakout in 10-year yields, its implication for higher yields on industries, the political wrangling’s in Washington as Presidential approval erodes, and Neil’s new ground-breaking diet plan.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Mike Masters Sep 18, 2021

    Mike Masters of Masters Capital Management has had a storied career in the investment business. From his days in the pool as an All-American swimmer at The University of Tennessee to his first job as a retail stockbroker and finally as the head of his eponymous named firm, Mike’s focus on process and his sheer willingness to succeed has served his investors well. As one of the most active institutional users of derivatives on the street, Mike understands mismatches in perceptions, expectations and calendar quirks, and attempts to exploit those difference to his client's advantage. He’s built a first class business while being true to his family and partners. Here’s our conversation.

    RenMac Off-Script: Consumer Not Yet Exhausted Sep 17, 2021

    Today Neil, Steve and Jeff discuss the strength and resilience of the consumer, the seasonality of equities and cyclicality, the important dates for upcoming votes in Washington and the Feds taper/rate hike schedule.

    RenMac Off-Script: Biden Top-Ticks COVID Sep 10, 2021

    Give us 13 minutes, we walk you through the strength of labor demand, why Biden’s speech is a sign that COVID concerns have likely peaked, how much of the negative sentiment might already be priced into equities, the latest news from DC and why the odds of a government shutdown are 25% and rising as the month progresses.

    RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls and Approval Sep 03, 2021

    RenMac dives head-first into today’s jobs number, the importance of employment distribution in the numbers, the impact it is likely to have on Fed tapering, the political infighting starting to develop among Ds in DC and the markets unwavering trend.

    RenMac Off-Script: A D.C. September to Remember Aug 27, 2021

    The RenMac Team discusses supply conditions impact on inflation, a daunting Congressional calendar in September, how Biden’s nominees will shape the Fed, and taking the foot off the market accelerator.

    RenMac Off-Script: The Deflating Reflation Trade Aug 20, 2021

    RenMac discusses the Biden’s challenge with budget reconciliation process, the oversold condition in energy and materials, the breakout in the dollar, the nagging and persistent breadth divergence, the inflation picture, and Steve’s foray into fatherhood.

    RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Starting to Bite Biden Aug 13, 2021

    Give us 18 minutes, we run through the recent movement in inflation, why it will not necessarily sway the Fed but has brought more of a political response from the Biden administration. In the markets, we highlight the pick-up in financials, particularly outside of banks and why this is not a growth versus value market, but one where you should focus on quality.

    RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Provide Fireworks for August Aug 06, 2021

    RenMac discusses the robust employment report, hurdles for the August numbers, congressional recess, DeSantis vs Biden, lending standards, and the liquidation seen in financial ETFs.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Stephanie Link Jul 31, 2021

    Stephanie Link has worn multiple hats over her tenured career, from the sell-side at Morgan Stanley to the buy-side working with Jim Cramer, then as head of global equity research at Nuveen and now chief investment strategist and portfolio manager for Hightower, a national wealth management firm. You might know her from CNBC where she's a regular contributor, but we dig deeper and talk about her experience, philosophy, and insight; she has a lot of wisdom to offer. Here's our conversation:

    RenMac Off-Script: The Impending Debt Ceiling Jul 30, 2021

    Renmac discusses the triangulation of debt ceiling and infrastructure this autumn, the GDP figures, how Powell is thinking about the world, the importance of quality and profitability at this part of the cycle, the continued strength of discretionary names and the uptick in healthcare.

    RenMac Off-Script: Biden Recognizes Inflation Jul 23, 2021

    Renmac discusses inflation, its non-transitory nature and the challenges it poses to stimulus, as well as breadth divergences, seasonality and the upcoming debt ceiling.

    RenMac Off-Script: Focused on the Fed Jul 16, 2021

    Give us 11 minutes, we run through Powell’s testimony on the Hill this week, the outlook for the composition of the Board of Governors next year, why the Fed’s reaction function might be dovish in 2022, and the latest in fiscal and infrastructure negotiations in Congress.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer (Part 2) Jul 10, 2021

    In the last of our two-part conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer we discuss inequality, deficits, his proposal for a flat tax, the Achilles' heal of Keynesianisms, MMT, and monetarism, as well as his outlook on inflation and his thoughts regarding negative rates.

    RenMac Off-Script: Bonds on an Island Jul 09, 2021

    Give us 18 minutes, we walk you through the decoupling of Chinese and US tech and the regulatory hammer coming down from DC, why the bond market might have it wrong on the growth outlook, and what this means for US bank stocks.

    RenMac Off-Script: How Long is Fed’s Fuse Jul 02, 2021

    RenMac discusses the distinction between data and rhetoric, the red-hot ISM data, the implications from the yield curve, timing and internal politics on infrastructure and what it means for taxes going forward.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer Jun 26, 2021

    In the National Museum of American History in Washington D.C. rests the Laffer Curve or, more precisely, the napkin upon which Dr. Arthur Laffer drew his theory on taxation and government revenue for Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld. He has been instrumental in shaping economic policy for a half-century, and has attracted the predictable detractors in the process. His pragmatism, good-humor and firm grasp of incentives, and their role in public policy and governance, is insightful, refreshing, and transcends political ideology. We discuss his career, theories, and outlook in this first of our 2-part conversation.

    RenMac Off-Script: Did the Fed Blink Jun 18, 2021

    Renmac looks at the Feds statement this week, its impact on markets, the message from yields, seasonal influences on equities, and the latest out of Washington.

    RenMac Off-Script: Inflation and China fears Jun 11, 2021

    The RenMac team discusses the latest inflation report, the impact of a decline in the 10-year Treasury, and U.S. efforts to counter China.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Stan Weinstein Jun 05, 2021

    Stan Weinstein was the editor and author of "The Professional Tape Reader", and the 1988 book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets", where he describes his 4-stage approach to security analysis. Stan has been actively engaged in the markets since the early 1960 and has been credited with some of the most important calls over the last 50-years, due in no small part to his rigorous process and stage analysis.

    RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Carbon Copy Jun 04, 2021

    RenMac sifts thru the payroll data, the improvement in REITs, increased pressure on China, the primary duty of elected officials and next week’s inflation numbers.

    RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Doesn’t Budge Bonds May 28, 2021

    Steve, Neil and Jeff discuss the passing of the infrastructure deadline, the trend of inflation, Biden’s $6T budget proposal, the breakout in industrial transportation names, the mix between goods and services, next week’s jobs number and the improvement in gold.

    RenMac Off-Script: Thinking About Thinking About Rates May 21, 2021

    RenMac discusses the regulatory environment around crypto, the temporal difference between Fed minutes and data, the yield curve and the breakout in gold.

    RenMac Off-Script: The Great Unmasking May 14, 2021

    Renmac talks about the latest inflation data, the timing of the CDC’s decision, the oversold condition in technology, lending standards and the marginal borrower, and the psychological importance of normalcy.

    RenMac Off-Script: Shock and Awe-ful May 07, 2021

    RenMac discusses the disappointing jobs number, the “disincentive to work” theory, the implications of FBs ongoing ban on Trump, the continued strength seen in sectors that are historically mid-cycle, Yellen’s comments on rates and the future of policy post today’s jobs number.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Ned Davis May 01, 2021

    Ned Davis has been actively involved with the markets for 53-years, starting his eponymous firm NDR in 1980. Despite all the systems, technology and experience at his disposal, he continues to find utility in and rely upon some of the most traditional tools available. Today we discuss what works, what doesn't, how markets have changed as well as some of our stories and interactions through the years. Here's our conversation........

    RenMac Off-Script: What a Difference a Year Makes Apr 30, 2021

    RenMac talks about the challenges facing the Fed in the months ahead with robust wages, inflation and GDP, what is in the American Family Plan, the increased competition between stocks and bonds given yield parity, sentiment and importance of market momentum, and the impact the Census outcome will have on mid-term elections

    RenMac Off-Script: SPAC Attack, SEC is Circling Apr 23, 2021

    In 14m RenMac discusses DC Statehood, the SEC’s new found interest in SPACs, 96% of names above 200-day MA, the importance of discretionary names, absolute breakouts in staples and utilities not confirmed by relative strength, and is the slowing reopening data effected by the end of spring break.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Richard Chilton Apr 17, 2021

    Richard Chilton is the founder, chairman, CEO and CIO of Chilton Investment Company. He's been on the vanguard of investment trends for over 40-years staring in M&A, cutting his teeth as a small cap manager at Alliance in the 80s, starting his hedge fund in 1992 and trust company in 2011. Richard shares with us his investment philosophy, stories from his mentors, the importance of philanthropy as well as his journey with wine. Here's our conversation.....

    RenMac Off-Script: Declining dollar and polling reliability Apr 16, 2021

    The RenMac team discusses the outlook for a weaker dollar, the admission of errors by pollsters, concerns about peak economic growth and what recent fundraising numbers says about Trump’s sway over the Republican Party.

    RenMac Off-Script: People in Glass Houses Apr 09, 2021

    Neil’s recent vacation confirms his data, the challenges of awakening corporate culture, how specialty retail is confirming the housing cycle, and the challenges of a global tax rate.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Cathie Wood (Part 2) Apr 03, 2021

    Cathie Wood has a meticulous and unique research process. In this 2 half of our conversation, we discuss how she procures ideas, determines when she's wrong, thinks about value and a few of her themes for the 21st Century. Here's our conversation......

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Cathie Wood (Part 1) Mar 27, 2021

    Cathie Wood and the ARK Innovation fund have become poster children for this bull market. Cathie invests in disrupters and innovators, but those are not just buzz words, they are part of a meticulous process, one that does take into account valuation, but also dares to imagine how some of these companies can and will change the world for the better. She herself has been a disrupter all her life, and the combination of technologic change, her faith and her intuition triangulated almost a decade ago into what has now become a “movement" on Wall Street. Here is the first part of our 2-part conversation:

    RenMac Off-Script: The Press Fails to Press Mar 26, 2021

    RenMac discusses Biden’s 1st news conference as President, dispelling some of the myths surrounding the Fed, the normalization of economic surprises on the market, looking for a 7-figure employment print, Taiwan/China relations, and what was in Biden’s cheat sheet?

    RenMac Off-Script: Leading Indicators are Misleading Mar 19, 2021

    RenMac discusses the uselessness of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, what indicators are useful for forward returns in the S&P 500, the Biden team’s recent skirmish with China’s delegation, and why next week’s data are likely to be dollar bullish.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation With Tom Gallagher Mar 13, 2021

    Tom Gallagher was a Washington Policy Legend on Wall Street for decades. We first crossed paths at Lehman Brothers in the late 1990s and then I had the good fortune of working with Tom at ISI and at the Scowcroft Group over the last 15-years. He’s officially retired, but ever the student of policy and politics, he’s as sharp as ever and his perspective and insight were always something I appreciated, and today was no exception…….here’s our conversation:

    RenMac Off-Script: Springing Ahead One Hour and Then Some Mar 12, 2021

    RenMac looks at the latest inflation data and market implications, the wish lists in the stimulus bill, importance of 52-week highs in equities and James Carville’s accurate assessment of lockdowns.

    RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Take the Reopening Lead Mar 05, 2021

    RenMac discusses the strong jobs data, stimulus flirting with the upper end of the range, rates and the duration trade, where we are in the economic cycle and the need for thoughtful and credible messaging as we reopen.

    RenMac Legends: Anatomy of the South Sea Bubble with Prof. Odlyzko Feb 27, 2021

    300 years ago in London, the South Sea Bubble was deflating. It created vast fortunes for a few like Thomas Guy who used it to establish the eponymous Hospital in London, and financial disaster for other like Sir Isaac Newton who was lured back into the waters only to lose a fortune for himself and others. Professor Andrew Odlyzko from the University of Minnesota has studied the South Sea Bubble, what was happening, its characteristics and what we can learn from it, here's our conversation.....

    RenMac Off-Script: Treasury Curve’s Bellyache Feb 26, 2021

    RenMac discusses the move in the Treasury markets, the quiescent response in Corporate credits, who is Elizabeth MacDonough and how might she be assisting Schumer, a memo from Arthur Burns to Jimmy Carter, and the data packed week ahead.

    RenMac Off-Script: Will Data Dog Democrats? Feb 19, 2021

    RenMac debates the overwhelmingly strong economic data, the vaccination of the most vulnerable, how it impacts the COVID relief, how and where yields start to negatively impact equities, the future of the Republican Party, and California’s “unique” prioritization of front-line workers

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Scott Bessent Feb 13, 2021

    Scott worked with some of Wall Street's most prominent investors before starting Key Square in 2016, the largest hedge fund launch of that year. His mentors include Jim Rogers, Jim Chanos, Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros, and it was with Stan and George in 1992 that he played an important roll in thier understanding the BoE's untenable position as it related to defending the Pound and raising rates. These mentors as well has his Father's love of science fiction all account for Scott's unique and often profitable perspective. Here's our conversation.

    RenMac Off-Script: Inflation: Perception vs Reality Feb 12, 2021

    RenMac discusses the outlook for inflation, the current extreme positioning in the bond market, Biden’s 180 on semiconductors’ strategic importance, handicapping impeachment, and the week ahead

    RenMac Off-Script: The Shortening Stimulus Fuse Feb 05, 2021

    In 16m, RenMac discusses the trend in gold, how today’s job numbers factor into stimulus negotiations, at what point is inflation not “transitory”, and how we should be thinking about this in regards to the RenMac market cycle clock.

    RenMac Off-Script: Reddit Revolt and Strange Bedfellows Jan 29, 2021

    In 15m RenMac talks about the benefits of short-sellers in a market, the pitfalls of an SEC overview, Cruz and AOC, latest GDP figures and China’s recent saber rattling over Taiwan.

    RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Noah Blackstein Jan 25, 2021

    Noah runs over $5B as the growth manager of the Dynamic Funds out of Toronto Canada. He enters his 23rd year at the wheel, and has seen every type of market, and navigated deftly. His process continually places him in the 98th percentile as a growth manager, and while fundamentally biased, he keeps his head on a swivel and one eye on the macro-environment. Here's our conversation.....

    RenMac Off-Script: Unity and the Power of Unilateralism Jan 22, 2021

    RenMac discusses Biden’s first few days, how China doves mysteriously transitioned into hawks, housing and its importance, setting an artificially low bar and the building bubble in assets

    RenMac Off-Script: Expectations Collide with Reality Jan 15, 2021

    In 15m RenMac discusses the Biden’s stimulus plan, the expectations of policy and the likelihood of something less, Powell green lights assets inflation, and the importance of contrarian thinking around words and rhetoric versus facts.

    RenMac Off-Script: Better Economy But Stimulus Won’t Stop Jan 08, 2021

    RenMac sorts through the news of the week. December jobs report was soft but with stronger details. Additional fiscal stimulus is on the way as GA goes blue. This is going to find its way into asset prices.

    RenMac Off-Script: Fed Passive Easing, Uncle Sam Active Easing Dec 18, 2020

    RenMac handicaps political winners/losers of stimulus, the great inflation debate, deGraaf’s “Perpetuity Effect”, what Fed’s comments mean for asset prices and Neil’s definition of a “Powder Day”.

    RenMac Off-Script: Energy Stocks Leading, Inflation Is Not Following Dec 11, 2020

    US equities are in an unambiguous uptrend. The energy sector is breaking out after a long funk, but we’re skeptical this means anything for price inflation just yet. Plus the latest on fiscal negotiations in DC: both sides are likely to drop their must haves for a slimmed down relief bill before year end.

    RenMac Off-Script: The Bright Light at End of the Tunnel Dec 04, 2020

    RenMac plays “Pardon Bingo”, latest on stimulus package, excessive sentiment readings in equity markets, economic bears are policy advocates, it remains about credit not COVID.

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