Ukraine XI: Asymmetric Momentum Oct 18, 2022

There’s something really interesting happening in Ukraine. The few and far between Russian victories seem to be making them weaker. Yes, you read that right. Russian victories are draining the life out of their soldiers, making it harder to win the battles that come next. On the other hand, Ukrainian victories have been swift, dramatic, and devastating - with each win seemingly making them stronger.

The big question is, why is it that Ukrainians gain momentum with every win, but Russia can’t seem to build on their victories? Well, it all comes down to asymmetric momentum. And there are 6 major reasons for this.

Tune in to hear what these 6 reasons are and how the recent Ukrainian victories mark a critical juncture that will determine the course of the war.

Topics Covered Include:

00:00 Introduction

02:40 What is asymmetric momentum?

04:49 Ukrain’s positional warfare

06:55 Understanding Ukraine’s offensive and defensive strategies

08:16 Russia’s unintelligent retreat

10:37 How Russian political interests are affecting their progress

14:54 The poor discipline and lack of drive in Russian forces

16:42 Is the Russian army competent enough to win this war?

18:00 How Russia’s desire for a quick war is slowing their progress

20:40 Ukrainian motivation and their willingness to die for the right reasons

24:58 The impatient side of Russians uncovered

28:30 Many Russian conscripts will die due to lack of training and morale

29:36 The psychology behind Putin’s destructive Soviet-style leadership

32:04 Ukraine is playing the patient game

34:07 Summary

35:36 Parting thoughts

Ukrainian victories on the ground have been swift, dramatic, and devastating. And each win seems to make them stronger.

Russian victories (back when they happened), seemed to be slow and grinding, and wear the Rusisans down, making them weaker.

Why is it that Russians lose momentum with each victory, but Ukrainians gain it? Why such asymmetric momentum?

I see 6 (or 7, depending) major reasons:

1. Russian Politics (“quick war”): impatience -> meat grinder, not admitting defeat, vs Ukraine’s patience
2. Russian Politics (show territorial progress): territory vs. Ukraine’s “defeat the enemy” -> meat grinder
3. Russian Politics (don’t let Ukraine show territorial progress): no retreat allowed -> break and rout
4. Morale, espirit de corps, discipline, "why are we here" vs fighting for home and life -> Ukrainians will die for the right reasons, Russians are drunk, will break and refuse to fight
5. Russian atrocities: hardens Ukrainian morale and turns them into 24/7 machines of war who get smarter and become veterans
6. Soviet vs. NATO style: NATO style allows for initiative and invests in training; Soviet style mass forces of limited training and centralized command means they are very predictable
7. Putin: total centralized control by someone who has clearly lost touch with reality

Links and Resources:

Reconsidermedia.com

Reconsider Media on Twitter - https://twitter.com/reconsidermedia

Reconsider Media on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/ReConsiderMedia/

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Reconsidering Russia 2: Russia's Interest & What to Expect with Prof. Mitchell Orenstein Oct 17, 2022

Mitchell Orenstein is a professor of Central and East European Politics in the Slavic department at the University of Pennsylvania and an associate of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian studies at Harvard. His research focuses on the political economy and international affairs of Central and Eastern Europe.

This episode is the latest installment to the four-part series on Reconsidering Russia, where we try to dig into Russia's historical and geopolitical context to help you better understand some of their moves today and what's going on in their country today.

Tune in to hear Eric, Xander, and Professor Orenstein dive deep into Russia's real objective in Ukraine, Eastern Vs. Western-leaning periods of Russian leadership, why Russia really needs to diversify its economy, and so much more.

00:00 Introduction

01:35 Why Geopolitics is not about reforms or democracy

03:49 What does Russia really want?

05:49 Understanding Russia's national interests and foreign policy preferences

12:59 Eastern Vs. Western-leaning periods of Russian leadership

16:33 Comparing Russian perceptions to the American interpretation

20:10 What does the 'Near Abroad' mean?

20:54 The democratization of Russia's 'Near Abroad'

24:12 Consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union

28:10 The strategic and fundamental importance of Ukraine

32:14 Russian interests in Finland

34:57 The Nature of Germany's relationship with Russia

39:01 Caucasus as a region of strategic importance to Russia

44:15 Chinese and Russian interests in South-East Asia

47:15 China-Russia relations: Eternal rivals or emerging alliance

50:41 Russia's views on China's growth in power and influence

52:38 Russia-Japan dispute over Kuril Islands

54:50 Thoughts on Russia's domestic politics and foreign policy

58:35 Why Russia really needs to diversify its economy

01:01:58 What to expect from Russia in the next 5 to 10 years

01:05:18 Russia - a gas station with nuclear weapons

01:08:03 Parting thoughts

Links and Resources:

Reconsidermedia.com

Mitchel's website - https://www.mitchellorenstein.com/

Mitchel's profile on the Foreign Affairs Magazine - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/authors/mitchell-orenstein

Reconsider Media on Twitter - https://twitter.com/reconsidermedia

Reconsider Media on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/ReConsiderMedia/

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Ukraine X: The Absolutely Dazzling Counter-Blitzkrieg Sep 19, 2022

Time in Kyiv: 9am, Tues, Sep 13th.

Kharkiv Oblast is free.

Zelenksy announced about 6 weeks ago that a major counter-offensive in the South would take place. After a month of attacking bridges, rail depots, ammunition depots, C&C, bases, etc etc etc, the offensive started in earnest. 2 weeks in, they haven’t gotten a ton of territory back.

But, as all of us paying attention know, the Southern offensive may have been the greatest diversion in warfare since WWII itself.

Over the last week, Ukraine launched the most dazzling counter-blitzkrieg I can think of. We’re going to go over all of that in its glorious detail here.

There’s so, so, so much we don’t know. Lots of opsec, lots intentionally hidden from the public. What I can say with certainty is there will be many a movie made about this in Hollywood -- this is one of the great moments in military and geopolitical history, period. It is very, very likely the tide of the war has turned, and for good. David is now on top of Goliath, pummeling him.

Please excuse the sound. I wasn’t planning to record while on break here but I just couldn't help it. I don’t have my mic!

Connect with Mark

Russian History on Facebook

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ReConsidering Russia: The Complex History of Russia Sep 06, 2022

Mark Schauss is the host of Russian Rulers History and Battle Ground History. Known for being heavily well-versed with the history of Russia, Mark Schauss joins us in today’s episode to talk about the Russian history in its most authentic form. Mark shares everything from Russia’s first invasion to how all these historic events reflect on how Russia moves socio-politically in today’s world.

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Topics Covered

What made mark start his podcast and how it’s currently going.
The history of the first invasion and the second invasion of Russia.
The geography of Russia and why it’s easy to invade Russia but why it’s difficult to stay.
How Russia was able to balance European powers and how they were able to to set up alliances to protect their borders.
Mark shares all about the Napolean and Crimean war.
The casualties of the Russian Civil War.
The transition period between 1917 to the World War 2.
How Russia came back from the 2nd World War as a superpower country.

Connect with Mark

Russian History on Facebook

Resources Mentioned

Russian Rulers Podcast

Russian Rulers History

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Ukraine IX: Oh HI, MARS Aug 10, 2022

Hot Updates

Severodonetsk fell slowly as expected, but then Lysychansk fell quickly because Russian troops surrounded it, and Ukrainian troops had to retreat rather than be destroyed. It’s possible the Ukrainians were out-gamed by Russian mid-level commanders.
So far, Russians have not been able to break out of Donetsk city -- that part of the original Feb 24 defense line is holding
Russia appears to have deployed nearly 100% of its conventional combat capabilities to Ukraine, and is still getting clobbered.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/25/ukraine-russia-balance-of-forces/
Russia is trying to recruit “volunteer” regiments to deploy in Ukraine to relieve Russian troops -- they will be low quality, and so their use would be to hang tight in certain areas and try to pin down Ukrainian units. Not useless, but not super useful.

Once again we have returned to slow movement along the front lines now that Severodonetsk and Lysychansk fell.
Ukrainians fell back to the 2nd of 3 highly defensible urban areas in Donetsk oblast, with Siversk and Bakhmut the big towns there. Bakhmut is under a lot of pressure; Russians are trying to surround it, but so far to no avail.
Russians attempting to attack directly on those two towns, but also continuing to try the end-around from Izium toward Sloviansk to try to create a pocket that can be cut off. So far it’s really not working. It looks like Russia might be deprioritizing that angle as of July 31.
WHAT IS HIMARS? WHY DOES IT MATTER?

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It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times, Part 2 Jul 15, 2022

Lots of ways we can split this. Much has been discussed about decoupling of wages from productivity.

Also note we are absolutely not going to get into 2022. But it’s clear the price increases since the pandemic (due to supply shortages, super aggressive monetary policy, gasoline ,and other drivers of inflation) are really eating into real wages.

See the full show notes at ReconsiderMedia.com

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It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times Jun 30, 2022

OR, a tale of ups and downs

Lots of things seem to be getting worse, at least if you read the internet ever

This is not an episode to say, “nothing is getting worse,” but that what you hear about is probably not very correlated with what’s going on.

I’m leaving abortion out of this because honestly I can’t even deal with this shit right now.

Major problem with talking about trends: how long are we talking here? A lot of stuff goes up and down. If you just look at this year and extrapolate, then the stock market trends down, which it obviously doesn’t. So we’ll do our best, I’m focusing on the current adult generation (Millennials/GenX), but keep all that in mind.

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Ukraine VIII: Bold Strategies and High Stakes Jun 13, 2022

Updates

Situation in Severodonetsk
HUGE numbers of troops from both sides
Artillery war
“Road of life” from Bakhmut to Severodonetsk has 1km clearance from Popansa salient and has been a huge fight -- if it goes down, UKR at risk of losing >10k troops in that pocket
Ammo situation
Ukraine out of Soviet ammo; now fully on NATO
100% dependent on Western shipments
Would have literally run out of ammo without that support -- possible insight into why Russia thought it could win Donbass
UKR National Guard troops who are basically there to eat shells and prevent a breakout are losing morale
Russia has blown up the bridge between Severdonetsk and Lysychansk -- this is a major problem for the troops in Severodonetsk, but they could in theory make a river crossing
“US General says Elon Musk’s Starlink has totally destroyed Russia’s information campaign”
UKR seriously needs more heavy guns -- especially artillery. Losing 100-200 troops/day (to death; likely 500/day to wounds), mostly to artillery

OVERALL:

Game’s far from over, as it turns out. Ukraine could totally win, Russia could totally win.

My past assessments didn’t take ammo into account. Turns out the Russians just have a ton of old ammo they’re willing to use indiscriminately. Ukrainians are low on it.

Ukraine has the will and skill and people to win if it’s supplied.

The crazy situation and bold strategy in East Donbass

Zelensky correctly called that Russia was so obsessed with getting a symbolic victory in completing the “liberation” of the Luhansk oblast, that it would pour everything into urban warfare to pull it off. Putin has his own obsessions, but also has to demonstrate progress on the current stated aims of the war -- liberation of those two provinces. So they’re throwing everything they can at Severodonetsk.

Russia is not good at urban warfare. Most assaults, everywhere, are getting repelled (and when that happens, it means Russia lost a lot of troops, stuff).

BUT -- and big BUT here -- Ukraine is out of Soviet ammo. Which means a whole shitload of their artillery just went silent. Fully dependent on NATO sending even more, which seems to be a slow thing. And would love to have heavy armor, but NATO is against it. Ukraine has to do an artillery duel with a massive (at least 10:1) disadvantage, trying to use superior intelligence and western radar to precision-target Russian artillery and take it out, bit by bit. Long work, lots of ammo. Need more ammo.

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Russia Invades Ukraine VII: Possible Aftermath May 27, 2022

First, war update:

Mariupol fell after 2.5 months of truly insane holding out. Gosh dang.
1900 surrendered and there is a POW complication that I”m not going to get into
Ukraine has mostly booted Russia out of Kharkiv, though there is still some fighting and the Russians have not given it up entirely the way they did Kyiv/Sumy/etc, so there’s no obvious way to free up those troops for Ukraine
Russians trying really hard to cross the Siversky Donets river by pontoon, in order to encircle Ukraine’s core defense force in the Donbass (largely around a city called Severodonetsk and one called Lysychansk). It seems at least twice the Ukrainians knocked out entire BTGs trying to make that crossing, which is incredible.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1528116469619367940
Apparently Russia is generally short of pontoon type equipment
…but Russia has a breakout of sorts, actually right in the northern part of the original Donbass battle lines, through a town called Popansa. TONS of troops moving through there
It’s both a breakout…
…and a salient, which means significant risk for them. Somewhat exposed.
Ukrainians are pretty good at mobile defense
Just not at all clear if they are running in open space (and just taking time to stage properly) or if they are running against really significant resistance at this point
The original breakthrough at Izium seems to have stalled entirely
Russian troops also massed on the western side of the Siversky Donets (the northern part) to prevent the Ukrainian counter-attack there from threatening the supply lines and etc to Izium -- if that happened it’d be a total disaster
(Ukrainians had temporarily broken across the river but had to withdraw)
Russian tactics seem to be: just unload with artillery for days and days, then attempt an assault
Usually fail
But rinse, lather, repeat, and you get some breakthroughs
Russians seem to be planning to do this in the south, north of Kherson
Russia may be running out of drones
Will hurt recon
Domestic manufacturing capacity limited so they can’t build ‘em
Things are moving SLOW, and will continue to do so IF the Popansa breakthrough is contained

OK so how does this end?

Well here’s where Russia blew it big time.

The Ukrainians believe they can win.

Russians could have had a settlement where they get Donbass and likely even Crimea as concessions. Now the Ukrainians believe they can win, and want to win.

Ukrainians are also just full of morale, manpower, and money.

-Zelenskyy says 700k soldiers now fighting for Ukraine -- 3x those of Russia. Can definitely win a war of attrition

-Ukraine just got $40B promised from the US, and the G7 promised another $38B

Russia on the other hand is having trouble manufacturing new weapons, and is losing tons of money from sanctions and withdrawals -- 45% of its GDP was made up from sales and operations from the companies that left Russia (which doesn’t, I think, mean a 45% GDP contraction, but it means a lot). So there’s just an economic slowdown generally, and a lack of ability to manufacture advanced weapons.

Russia depends more and more on tube artillery, so it’s just blasting the Donbass to hell.

And for Russia?

See the full notes at ReconsiderMedia.com

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Russia Invades Ukraine VI: We've Always Been at War With Eurasia May 06, 2022

What happens when you start really believing your own bullshit?

What happens when you’ve created a yes-man bubble where everyone only tells you what you want to hear?

First a war update:

Russia’s focus on the east and Donbass, which started a month ago, has made a bit of progress in a few places, but is now pretty stalled
They do seem to be regrouping from Mariupol, but they’ve also been going into a meat-grinder
Ukraine has made marginal advances towards Kherson and away from Kharkiv
SOMEHOW, Mariupol’s troops still stand in the Azovstal steel plant despite months of constant bombings and stormings -- there’s really nothing like it in modern military history (Alamo has absolutely nothing on it, not even a tiny bit close)
It REALLY seems like the vast majority of Russian attempts to advance are getting repelled, and that is going to grind them down and make them combat-ineffective
…and now Ukraine is getting tons of heavy weapons:
Tanks
Big, advanced howitzers
Radar systems to aim at Russian artillery
Rocket artillery
Drones
This is going to help them dislodge low-morale Russian troops and drive offensives

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Russia Invades Ukraine V: All Wild on the Eastern Front Apr 07, 2022

The Russians are hoping to encircle Ukraine's defensive lines in the Donbass. If they do, they might be able to declare victory.

The Ukrainians are racing east, not only to defend their territory, but might just also be able to counter-attack.

Let's break it down.

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Russia Invades Ukraine IV: My Kingdom for a Plane Apr 06, 2022

So much has changed over the past month -- Ukraine is on the offensive. Kyiv is safe. The war moves east. Air superiority actually matters more than ever.

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Civil Wars of the Past and the Gilded Age with Lindsay Graham of History Daily Mar 21, 2022

On this episode, Erik interviews Lindsay Graham of American History Tellers and History Daily. They talk about the similarities and differences between today's political and economic climate and that of the Civil War and the Gilded Age.

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Ukraine III: What's Wrong with Russia? Mar 06, 2022

The war should have been short and decisive. And as it drags out, Russia looks ever-more inept. What's wrong with its military? What's wrong with its chain of command? Will its economy collapse?

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Russia Invades Ukraine II: What if Ukraine Wins? Feb 27, 2022

While this war is far from over... well, it's far from over! And nobody expected that. In this episode we talk about why Ukraine is winning, what it could mean for Russia and the world if they do win, and how warfare is changing as we watch it unfold.

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Russia Invades Ukraine Feb 25, 2022

Erik explains why Russia is invading Ukraine, what their war aims are, what the West is doing, how geopolitics plays into all of this, and a little bit of what might happen next. Get a little sanity of clarity amidst the livestream chaos.

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Optimates Feb 19, 2022

"Another cause which kept the plebeians in as state of poverty was the unjust distribution of the public land (ager publicus) which had been acquired in war..."

William C. Morey, Outline of Roman History

The Optimates:

Represented the Elites in the run-up to, and the middle of, the Roman Civil Wars

Believe the mob wasn’t really fit to rule, wanted to rule for them

Also represented special interests who benefited personally from a lot of laws that led to unsustainable economic conditions -- such as the (not) Lex Agraria

(Lex Agraria: redistribution due to the landlessness of soldiers during the Punic Wars)

Who are the Optimates Today?

We might think they’re just the rich, or megacorporations (or sometimes, lobbyists). Those are certainly Optimates, but we forget that those with Special Interests are everywhere.

See the full show notes at ReConsider Media

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The Fall of AntiWork, Or: The ‘Anti-’Problem Jan 29, 2022

Antiwork had a really bad day

Source Article

“Laziness is a virtue in this society” - r/antiwork moderator

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20220126-the-rise-of-the-anti-work-movement

“Supporters of the anti-work movement believe people should self-organise and labour only as much as needed, rather than working longer hours to create excess capital or goods.”

USA is a tough crowd for this kind of pitch. See: bad branding.

What does Antiwork stand for?

Many people tried to give Erik the answer… and many were different

-Worker’s rights / labor unions

-Economic inequality

-Surplus Value

-Same standard of living for fewer hours

-4-day week

-Abolishing capitalism

-etc

Antiwork freaks out

https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se7b86/how_do_you_fuck_up_this_bad/

https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se59eu/can_be_overworked_to_exhaustion_if_you_sleep_on/

https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se4gfp/based_af/

https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se418m/i_didnt_think_this_sub_was_literally_antiwork/

https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se4nf9/mods_are_trash/

https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se5cit/im_glad_the_21_year_old_mod_has_the_funds_to_be/

https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se3v15/does_anyone_think_we_would_better_off_with_a/

An interesting conversation with my friend Austin

You have to stand for something if you want a movement… not just against

See: Civil Rights

See: Gay Marriage

See: Women’s Suffrage

Other problems:

Tea party rise-and-fall
Occupy Wall Street
BLM

This applies to our Revolutions episode, too -- being against something is only a short-term uniter.

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ReConsider Needs Your Support Jan 27, 2022

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Antiwork Jan 25, 2022

Today we talk about something I've reconsidered lately: Antiwork

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Erik’s initial take

-labor organization and rights are a great thing

-Not putting up with crappy work conditions, and forcing companies to compete, is a great thing (and this is my opinion as an employer)

-saying “I want stuff - someone has to make it- and I don't want to work in exchange” seems crazy

-”Ending work,” part of the motto, is very explicitly about not working, even though antiworkers will sometimes say they're not actually about that. At the very least it’s terrible marketing.

What do they say the’re about?

"A lot of people mistake antiwork for being lazy, and like nothing has to ever get done," one moderator of the subreddit, who goes by u/rockcellist, told Business Insider.

"But the truth of the matter about antiwork — and everything surrounding it — is that obviously things have to get done, but the current structure in which things get done and the way that capital flows as they get done is unfair and should be nonexistent."

Many posts are about pushing back against, or at least calling out, what seem like unfair or ridiculous practices by companies/management…

..but others get really weird.

#3 post all time is a disgruntled employee, telling one side of the job, who went and deleted thousands of hours of work they did (they happened to still have access).

Erik sees…

Again among some stuff about labor organization, work standards, sharing some amazingly awful stuff that employers and managers have done, sharing pay rates, tips to negotiate, other stuff that actually seems pretty good:

The sense that money isn’t earned - it’s just this ritual/token task you have to do to be allowed to live/survive
The sense that suckering a company to get paid to do nothing is good
40 hours is way too much work

So this doesn’t fit with my own model or experience or biases.

Read the full show notes at ReConsiderMedia.com

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Revolutions Jan 02, 2022

Two kinds of revolutions:

Throwing off an external oppressor
Often violent, sometimes not
Forcing regime change in your own country through extra-political or violent means
Largely violent
Largely nonviolent

The outcomes tend to be very different.

(Focusing on outcomes where they win -- turns out most revolutions fail militarily)

Those throwing off an outsider tend to work out pretty well!

US revolution
Spanish-American independence
Haitian slave revolt (note unlike many slave revolts, the Haitians were the natives)
Indian revolution (mostly)
Greek & Balkan revolutions, generally the revolutions of Nationalism of the 19th century
Generally the anticolonial revolutions

Those forcing internal change through violence tend to lead to brutal dictatorships

Russian revolution
French revolution
Chinese revolution
English revolution
Cuban revolution
Iranian revolution
Roman Republic revolutions / civil wars

GENERALLY:

-Kicking people out works out pretty well

-Civil wars don’t: they lead to dictatorships

OK why?

-Kicking people out: you use tribalism to your advantage

Your people are united against an outsider

Once it’s over, the outsiders can generally leave

-Regime change: tribalism works against you

Your people are divided because you’re using violence to create winners and losers

Once it’s over, the defeated folks stick around (see: the Iraq war and the Baath party)

But there’s a second bit:

When you have an internal revolution, you’re using violence not just against the current system, but at the very idea of legitimacy of any given system. You set a precedent: if I don’t like it, I can use violence to change it.

Any regime, or system of government, relies on legitimacy. Building that legitimacy is hard. Lots of people study this. It usually relies on traditions, taught and shared belief systems, propaganda, and enough of a track record that people feel they have some means of getting their needs met through the system some reasonable amount of the time.

So you end up reverting to using raw power, secret police, fear, etc. You don’t have unity or legitimacy so you can only resort to violence.

When that doesn’t work, you end up losing the revolution and either the old regime comes back pretty quickly (English revolution) or you have ongoing violent anarchy where everyone is getting beheaded, including the children of the revolution, until a strongman comes in and restores order and people are generally OK with this (French, Roman Republic revolutions)

See: Machiavelli’s Prince

We must be wary in our own democracies of escalating rhetoric and actions that chip away at the legitimacy of the liberal system. Liberal systems are designed to solve problems through a process: when you eschew that process to get what you need, you erode that legitimacy and bring about its downfall, and what’s going to come next will be ugly.

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Meta-Trans: Gender, Ethnicity/Race, and Transitioning between Them Dec 20, 2021

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This is probably going to get me a lot of flak but I realized that I’d be shying away from a commitment to challenge how we think about stuff if I didn’t talk about this out of fear.

Disclaimer:

I actually have a very underdeveloped political position on transgenderism and generally just stay out of it, the way I do about abortiton (but for different reasons--with abortion I am just morally conflicted), and I tend to default to, “you do you” and thus away from restrictions on what people can do with their gender
I have a number of delightful friends who are trans and my emotional position is that I feel very supportive and loving of them and their transition seems to “make sense” to my gut in some deep way that being transracial doesn’t really seem to make quite so much sense… but I couldn’t explain to a martian why I think this.
The way we argue about trans stuff is totally unproductive and drives me batty

Confession: I cannot for the life of me understand why being transgender is totally a real thing that is 100% cool and being transracial or transethnic is totally not a real thing and is 0% cool.

I have honestly put years of thought into this and talked with a ton of people about it (both people who feel like they have a good answer to the difference and those that don’t) and I have gotten NOWHERE.

But I want to do better than just throwing up my hands, I want to provide my own framework of thought here.

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Social Shaming Dec 03, 2021

I think a lot of the societal breakdown we are seeing is a matter of human psychology -- designed for pre-historical humans by evolution -- running up against technology that it can’t handle and goes kindof crazy trying to confront.

-This is probably why social media is so harmful for teenagers -- social dynamics on steroids that you can’t ever really win

-Also talked about this a lot with bubbling behavior and learning things from people who look like me rather than people who seem smart

-I think one form - social shaming - is leading to an unintended acceleration of radicalization

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When Fascism Almost Came to America Nov 15, 2021

In the 1930s, Fascism was surprisingly popular in the US. Then a World War made the word anathema, but wanting a strongman to make everything better for us is getting more popular. Believe in our liberal institutions is in decline. Are we getting more tolerant of totalitarianism?

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How Did It Come to This? Part 4, the rise of niche media platforms Oct 25, 2021

Social market dynamics are driving the ever-greater fracturing of public discourse. Can it be pulled back together? In this episode Erik finishes his series with the MIT Enterprise Forum on media technology and political polarization.

Check out the show notes for the original slide deck at http://www.reconsidermedia.com

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How Did It Come to This? Part 3, the role of media technology in political polarization Oct 11, 2021

In this episode, Erik expands substantially on work from Wedged, talking about how media technology, now and in the past, contributes to (or doesn't contribute to) political polarization.

Check out the show notes at http://www.reconsidermedia.com for the slide deck!

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Volume Bias Sep 27, 2021

In the words of the legendary Terry Pratchett, in the Discworld novel The Truth:

“A lie can get halfway around the world before the truth has had a chance to get its boots on.”

Or from one of my favorite bands, The Protomen in their song, “The Hounds”:

“When I say he was a monster

When I set fire to his name

It does not matter where you hear it from

Whether truth or lies, it gets said all the same

Become a ReConsider Patron

…

Whatever’s on the table plays!”

Volume bias

I’ve been on a kick recently about a propensity for us to misunderstand or misrepresent people who aren’t in our tribe. And how BS gets amplified.

In “How to casually radicalize a citizen,” we talked about how people with less-than-awesome intent can easily (and do) create a stream of the worst of the opposition. You can see this and then get a bit radicalized yourself, as we see.

But this is happening passively, too. I call it VOLUME BIAS.

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Selective Forgiveness Sep 09, 2021

What are you willing to forgive in the heroes of your story?

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How I Learned to Start Worrying and Loathe the Bomb Aug 24, 2021

Agenda:

Weren’t nukes good for global stability? The idea of Mutually Assured Destruction
Game Theory and the First Strike problem of most nuclear weapons
The Dr. Strangelove scenario
Were there close calls? Yes, here are all of them
Also, the broken arrow problem
Can you actually get rid of nukes? Probably not….
...but can you get rid of the first strike problem? Probably!
The magic of stealth boomer submarines
Fmr. SecDef William J Perry’s modest proposal
How would you get this done? Who do you lobby?

https://www.wjperryproject.org/

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Patron Q&A! #1 Aug 03, 2021

I finally managed to get a bunch of patrons to send me questions. Many who are eligible have still sent none, so I’m going to be doing another soon!

Some GREAT questions came in this time! Enjoy!

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Competing Frames Jul 12, 2021

Do you ever feel like your political opposition is talking right past you? As if you are having two entirely different conversations?

You might be working with COMPETING FRAMES. Come learn how those work - and how to win.

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Escape Jun 26, 2021

How does the United States escape spiraling political polarization? Waiting for a hero may not work. The cause of polarization is structural; the solution must be, too.

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Insurrection Jun 12, 2021

In an age of sensationalism and hyperbole for political points, words like 'insurrection' and 'coup' might make us numb. but let's dig deeper. Was the Jan 6th Capitol Riot an "Insurrection?"

(Note: this episode long delayed due to potential threats to the hosts' welfare, but we're finally releasing it!)

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False Premises May 19, 2021

If Trump had just decided to stay in power (and managed it), if Democracy had failed, might you have stormed the capitol? What does belief drives us to do? Do we, too, operate on false premises?

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How to Casually Radicalize a Citizen Apr 28, 2021

If I could convince you to spend two hours per day on certain Subreddits or other internet forums, I could probably make you a radical of any stripe I want. Knowing how this process works is the only way to avoid it.

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Stonks?! (Are we heading toward a boom?) w/ Dr. Jake Meyer Apr 18, 2021

BTC is over $60k!? GME hit $300!? Inverted Yield Curve!? What the heck is going on? Dr. Jake Meyer returns to help us try to make... _any_ sense of this.

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Gentrification, Immigration, and Hypocrisy Mar 31, 2021

Weird people are moving to my neighborhood, rent is going up, and I'm not happy about it! Am I protesting gentrification, or immigration? Am I upset about both, or only one? And why?

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Intelligent Speech Conference 2021 - April 24th! Mar 18, 2021

Yes, I'll be speaking again, and yes, again, it will be awesome.

Get your tickets with the discount code "reconsider" for all-day awesomeness, straight to your living room.

https://www.intelligentspeechconference.com/product/intelligent-speech-spring-2021/

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Will America's Political Parties Split and Realign? Mar 15, 2021

It's happened before, and under similar stresses: American parties have shattered into splinter groups, and the ensuing land grab has led to deep realignments, and even the end of American parties. What causes these realignments, and could they happen today?

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The ReUnited States: Walking Back (or Going Forward) Feb 15, 2021

Long before the capitol riots, a few good people began working on a documentary about the best Americans working to bridge our yawning divide. They created a movie: The Reunited States.

Erik asks them hard questions--not about the movie, but about America. Can we walk backwards... or somehow go forward? Three amazing Americans who have spent the last few years devoting themselves to bridging the divide answer Erik's tough questions about what next comes for a bruised and battered nation.

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Reckoning: How Will America Change Post-Capitol Riots? with Richard Hanania Jan 29, 2021

Richard Hanania returns to speculate with Erik about how Congress, Silicon Valley, the Republican Party, and the nation as a whole will change after the Capitol Riots. Will our DNA change in the same way that it changed after 9/11?

As usual, prepare for Erik and Richard to disagree fiercely :)

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What is America's Rubicon? How America's Political Breakdown Looks a Lot Like Rome's Dec 28, 2020

Historian Mike Duncan makes a compelling case that a breakdown of the political rules of the game--mos maiorum--drove the downfall of the Roman Republic. How much is America's breakdown of political norms and cohesion like that of the Roman Republic? How do we avoid our own Civil Wars and Rubicon?

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Christmas and moral obligation Dec 24, 2020

This Christmas is like no other. Millions of Americans traveled and unsafely visited family during Thanksgiving, leading to countless super spreader events that are killing thousands, needlessly, right now. Tomorrow, Christmas, is a critical day, and we all have an important ethical decision to make. Stay home, save other people's lives, and try to encourage as many others to do the same in whatever language they're familiar with. Acting in a way that conforms with our own moral principles will be ensure that we do not take actions that will haunt us for the rest of our lives.

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Political risk consulting with Perch Perspectives Dec 18, 2020

If 2020 has demonstrated anything, it is that geopolitical services are no longer a luxury. Like legal or accounting services, geopolitical services are crucial for businesses with global exposure in the unstable years ahead. You wouldn’t do your own accounting...why would you do your political risk?

Perch Perspectives was built to serve clients with international exposure, whether agribusiness, energy, financial, technology, or supply chain. Perch's mission is simple: give clients the geopolitical perspective they need to understand their operating environments and the power to influence their global business.

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Covid-19: Debunking the BS Dec 06, 2020

There is an astounding amount of BS surrounding COVID-19. In part because of that, we have nearly 300k Americans dead, and more to come. In this episode, Xander and Erik arm you with what you need to convince anti-maskers to get with the program.

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2020 Election: Who Voted for Whom (and Maybe Why) Nov 20, 2020

OK so Biden won, taking back PA, WI, MI, and flipping AZ blue for the first time since 1996 and GA blue for the first time since 1992. So this is a slightly different map than we’ve seen in a long time. FL and OH used to be THE states (remember 2000 and 2004?), and they both went solidly red this year and it just didn’t matter at all. In the 2000’s and 2010’s we also talked about CO, NM, and VA being at least in play, and those days are over. US voting patterns are changing and we’re going to talk a bit about why. There were some big surprises, and we're going to talk about them!

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Why the Nagorno-Karabakh War Matters Oct 30, 2020

Azerbaijan and Armenia are at war, over a strip of land with fewer than 150,000 people in it. This seems like the tiniest of conflicts... but it has real risk of erupting into a massive regional conflict. When does spilled blood get worked out, and when does it spiral out of control? We discuss this key question using history and geopolitics through the lens of this conflict in the Caucuses.

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Introducing 10 American Presidents (and its Series on Ronald Reagan) Oct 19, 2020

You just heard Roifield and Erik talk about the 2020 election, which will change US history forever. You might not know that in addition to MidAtlantic, Roifield hosts 10 American Presidents, an audio documentary on leaders who changed the country and the world. This quick trailer introduces Roifield's series on Ronald Reagan, as the 40th anniversary of his election approaches.

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How Did It Come to This? Pt 2: How Media Got Us Here Oct 17, 2020

The American political bubbles are now made of steel; we share fake news that reinforces our beliefs, and reject realities that don't conform with them. Is there any hope? We dive into the history of media technology for a glimmer of hope.

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How Did It Come to This? Pt 1: How Trump Contests the Election Results Oct 16, 2020

We talk about the President’s suggestions that he might not respect the outcome of the election, and his team’s efforts to prepare some states to award him delegates, even if he loses the state... and how that could play out.

We’ll discuss what the endgame could look like between Nov 3 and January, and try not to speculate too much on what the outcome is likely to be.

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What Happens After Trump? (ReConsider + MidAtlantic Mashup) Oct 12, 2020

What happens after Trump (almost certainly) loses the election? How does the US begin to heal its divides? How do the Republicans bounce back from a (likely) thrashing?

Roifield Brown, host of the MidAtlantic podcast, joins Erik to talk about changes in American attitudes and demographics, as well as the ongoing challenges the US will face as confidence in our democratic institutions sits at a historic low.

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What if The Fed Just Gave Us Free Money? w. Prof. Lawrence Marsh Oct 02, 2020

Today, the Fed spends money buying bonds and setting interest rates to stimulate the economy. Econ Prof. Lawrence Marsh shares a radically different way of using the Fed: putting money directly into Americans' bank accounts. He argues the Fed needs to move from supply-side to demand-side stimulation in order to not only ease inequality but also lead to a much more efficient economy.

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The LA Times Teaches Us How to Elect a Sheriff Sep 18, 2020

Sheriffs have a frankly _weird_ job... and a very important one. Robert Greene, editorial writer for the LA Times focusing on criminal justice, shares with us how to educate yourself to vote well for your Sheriff. We cover the history of Sherifffing in California, how elections have gone in the past, how that's changing nation-wide, and how you can do the research yourself to really understand who you're voting for. Sheriffs have a massive impact on policing policy in your county, so this year is an incredible opportunity for most of us to use the ballot box at the local level to make a difference!

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Does the US Fight Rational Wars? With Richard Hanania of Columbia U Sep 11, 2020

Xander and Erik are bigtime Realists--we assume international relations are fairly rational. What if this model is flawed, and even biased? Richard Hanania, of Columbia University's Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, makes his case that international relations are more like politics than we Realists would like to admit. Watch Erik actively ReConsider (with considerable anguish) his entire model of global politics makes sense!

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[Special] This November, Vote for Your Sheriff! Sep 07, 2020

Since the killing of George Floyd, Americans have used the soap box to demand reform to policing and the criminal justice system. In November, we will use the ballot box. But you may not even _know_ that your Sheriff is up for election, and they have a massive impact on policing in your county! On this episode of ReConsider, Xander and Erik break down why voting for your Sheriff is important in shaping law enforcement policy in the United States, how you can have an outsized impact in those elections, and why most of us don't know much about this option.

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Surely Mail-In Voting or Trump and DeJoy Will Rig the Election... Right? Aug 28, 2020

Mail-in voting will lead to massive fraud and allow the Democrats to steal the election.

Er, I mean: DeJoy's elimination of USPS sorting machines will disrupt voting this year so much to let Trump steal the election.

Which conspiracy is your favorite?

Do either of them hold water? Xander and Erik explore in GREAT depth:

-Historical voter fraud in the United States

-The risk of voter fraud with larger-scale mail-in voting

-What DeJoy is actually doing at the USPS

-How that compares to past Postmasters General

-Whether anyone is actually in a serious position to steal the election

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Xander appears on Perch Perspectives with Jacob Shapiro Aug 10, 2020

Xander recently appeared on the Perch Perspectives podcast, with Jacob Shapiro. Xander and Jacob have worked together as geopolitical analysts and consultants for a number of years, and recently Xander joined Jacob's new company, Perch Perspectives, as the vice president of analysis. Perch consults business on geopolitical risk that, as we're seeing, is increasingly impacting the global economy in ways that we haven't seen at least for the last 30 years.

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Operation Legend and the Portland Paramilitary Deployment Aug 07, 2020

Paramilitary troops in Portland, Oregon, threw protesters in unmarked vans and tear-gassed so aggressively that they hit the Mayor of the city. "Operation Legend" is set to roll out to many other cities in the US--possibly whether they like it or not.

Is Portland going to be repeated in Chicago and Detroit? We give you the full story and the context to be able to rise above the (very) aggressively partisan portrayals of Portland.

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COVID-19: Risks Beyond the Death Rate Jul 31, 2020

A lot of peoples' perspectives about Coronavirus risks center around the Case Fatality Rate (CFR). Pretty low for young folks, so you're safe, right? For both individuals and society, there are risks beyond the CFR we should know. It could save lives.

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The Hong Kong National Security Bill Jul 15, 2020

Has Hong Kong been "lost?" Are their civil rights obliterated? What the heck just happened with the National Security Law? Lots of context needed, and provided in this episode.

Xander and Erik go deep into the history of Hong Kong from the very beginning, and unfold HK's laws and relationship with Beijing since the 80's, to understand what led up to this seminal moment.

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Dr Campt Returns to Help Us Have Better Conversations About Race Jun 24, 2020

OK, you're fired up. What now? Dr. David Campt returns to give all of us a powerful guide and spiritual teaching to take our energy to fight racism, and turn that energy into a lifetime of effective conversations with white Americans to make the world a better place for our fellow black citizens.

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Libertarian VP Candidate Spike Cohen on The Big Issues of 2020 Jun 22, 2020

Spike Cohen, the Libertarian Party's candidate for Vice President of the United States, shares his ticket's platform on police violence, and militarization, racial inequality, pandemic responses, civil rights (and their violations), the economy, the fed, and... well, everything.

Join us for a deep, thorough conversation on some radically different ideas about how to solve the most pressing issues for the United States in 2020.

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Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics with Dr. John Johnson of Edgeworth Analytics Jun 17, 2020

Xander and Erik ask Dr. Johnson to help us understand the statistical bombs of 2020: police violence, COVID-19, economy, and election.

Dr. John Johnson is a PhD economist who specializes in applying economic

analysis to large and complex data sets for Fortune 100 companies to help them make high-stakes decisions in litigation and strategy.

John is the author of the book Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the

Little Data You Consume Every Day.

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Who Watches the Watchmen? Part 2: Complex Causes of Police Brutality Jun 07, 2020

Our nation is largely united that police reform is necessary. In this episode we talk about the causes of police brutality: training, traditions, and unions.

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Who Watches the Watchmen? George Floyd, Police Brutality -- and Crossing The Wedge (Part 1) Jun 03, 2020

The nation, us included, have been moved by the killing of George Lloyd by police in Minneapolis. There is clear evidence of a problem with police brutality.

We need not argue over how much this is a problem for black Americans vs. Americans of other colors.. You don’t have to be black for this to be your problem. If Americans are being brutalized or killed unnecessarily by police, this is your problem.

In this episode we dive into some of the potential causes of systemic police brutality, and--most importantly--how to make a unified stand with any American, no matter their political leanings, tribal affiliations, or other cultural crap that always seems to get in the way.

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How Stoics Deal With Plagues and Quarantines May 29, 2020

The world is undergoing intense collective trauma. It's incredibly hard. How can we thrive while in quarantine?

Xander and Erik share how the philosophy of the Stoics has helped them with many challenges in their lives, including this. Hopefully it can help you, too.

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The Passion of Tyrion and Varys Pt II May 20, 2020

We continue through Westeros, China, Rome, and talk a bit more about contemporary leaders, their struggles, and the people at their backs that have to make some very hard choices.

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The Passion of Tyrion and Varys: How to Handle Troubled Leaders (Part 1) May 05, 2020

What do the lieutenants of troubled leaders do to cope, help... or manipulate? Today we use Trump's struggles as a launchpad to explore history (and Westeros) to understand how and why supporting casts act differently when a leader has rough edges.

Xander and Erik grab a few pints for this one and have a good time; you might consider the same, if it fits your fancy :)

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Drunkenomics and The Impacts of Plagues Through History Apr 20, 2020

Xander and Erik record one of our longest episodes yet--with a lot of beer. We talk about Modern Monetary Theory and its role in the COVID-19 policy conversation, and the impacts plagues have had on societies in the past. Prepare for laughs.

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The Peace Officer Program In Action, with Sheriff Lott of Richland County Apr 06, 2020

Last time we were introduced to the Peace Officer concept by Lisa Broderick, who leads Police2Peace. Today we learn from Sheriff Lott of Richland County how he's implementing the Peace Officer program and what impact it's had.

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The COVID Relief Bill - Why, How, and What Apr 01, 2020

A stimulus bill just got passed. Is it the right bill? What the heck happens with that $2T and what are the consequences? Erik and Xander take a crack.

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A Live Debate on COVID-19 and Recession Relief Mar 20, 2020

Xander and Erik advocate for two different positions on the appropriate response by the US government to the coming recession, an exercise in a passionate and respectful disagreement, and an opportunity for Xander and Erik to share what we actually believe needs doing, as well. Stay safe, everyone.

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Climate Change Part 1: The Geopolitical Map Changes Mar 17, 2020

Climate change will, in addition to all of its other havoc, cause major changes to the geopolitical future. The entire board will change.

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Around the world in 2020 Mar 07, 2020

Jacob Shapiro joins the show again to take a snapshot of the global geopolitical environment at the turn of the decade.

(Sorry it's late; been a crazy month!)

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The Amazingly Complicated Brokered Presidential Convention Feb 05, 2020

It's Iowa Caucus time, which means people make hay by predicting a brokered convention!

...But what is a brokered convention? How does it work? How likely is it?

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Iran's Role in the Middle East in Context, with Iftah Burman Jan 27, 2020

Iftah Burman, founder of the Middle East Learning Academy, joins us to go over Iran’s broader role in the Middle East, particularly its operations outside of its own borders: what are its goals, what is the impact, and is Iran succeeding?

Itfah is a Middle East scholar that regularly briefs diplomats, foreign officials, academics, and different levels of young professionals. He also acts as the director of foreign senior-level mission to Israel of US government officials, US military officers, and different think-tank researchers. He’s also deeply involved with education, and regularly gives lectures to students and tour groups seeking broader context and understanding of the complexities in the region. He’s currently working on his PhD, with a dissertation focused on Hezbollah and Syria, but also studies and briefs experts on the Arab-Israeli conflict and Iranian-Western relations. Clearly, a relevant topic right now.

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The Soleimani Airstrike in Geopolitical Context, With Jacob Shapiro Jan 15, 2020

Jacob Shapiro (cofounder of Geopolitical Futures) joins us today to help us break down what in the absolute heck happened in Iran, what might happen next, and what the heck might be the strategic/geopolitical driver behind it.

We also do a followup about our last episode, where we cover some key errata about our analysis of the UK election that our listeners pointed out for us #humblepie and get a bit of help from Jacob on the implications.

Lots of good stuff :)

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The Political Phenomenons We Refuse to Understand Jan 02, 2020

Boris Johnson won big and Brexit is go for launch.

Donald Trump was impeached… and still his popularity holds steady. Heck, he might get re-elected.

Americans and Britons seem to have, within themselves, two incompatible narratives about these men. How is that possible?

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ReConsidering GDP Dec 11, 2019

Recently Erik saw an article in which nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says an obsession with looking at GDP has become a problem:

“The world is facing three existential crises: a climate crisis, an inequality crisis and a crisis in democracy,” he writes. “Yet the accepted ways by which we measure economic performance give absolutely no hint that we might be facing a problem.”

“If we measure the wrong thing, we will do the wrong thing,”

Do we need to reconsider how useful GDP can be as a measure of economic health?

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How Lebanese Protests Over a WhatsApp Tax Can Turn the World Nov 20, 2019

A few isolated Lebanese protests over a tax on WhatsApp calls have become, perhaps a national revolution, with huge consequences for the region and perhaps even American strategy. Why?

How could such a small thing have such a large potential impact? And how can we possibly spot what "small things" in the world really matter, and which big ones are more smoke than substance?

Getting this one out earlier than normal because the topic is timely!

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What In a Name? Would a Cop by Any Other Not Protect as Well? Nov 12, 2019

Amid the hard facts of distrust and violence between police and some communities in the US, debate descends into fanatical screaming between two tribes. We forget the solution we all want: effective policing with great community relationships. Today we interview Lisa Broderick, who founded Police2Peace, with a radically simple experiment to help our police and communities cooperate like never before.

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Is America's Syria Withdrawal a Betrayal of the Kurds? Oct 28, 2019

Turkey invades Syria amid a hasty and poorly-planned US withdrawal. It's not the first time: why is it getting this level of media attention and international outrage?

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A Butterfly Flaps its Wings in Saudi Arabia... Oct 10, 2019

…and hurricanes pop up throughout the Middle East.

How does a tiny US deployment in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia affect the geopolitical outlook of nations throughout the Middle East and the world?

The world’s a complicated place, and small moves can have ramifications for many years to come. Today, we look at the possible ramifications of a US deployment of troops to Saudi Arabia could play out.

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So You Wanna Impeach a President Oct 10, 2019

How does the process of impeachment work? What actions are impeachable? How's it worked in the past? We cover all of these questions and more.

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EPISODE 100: The Astropolitics of "The Expanse" Sep 23, 2019

WELCOME TO EPISODE 100. HOW EXCITING.

Today we’re going to talk about our favorite book series ever, The Expanse. More specifically, we’re going to talk about the “astropolitics” (geopolitics IN SPAAAACE) of The Expanse, and see how it as a case study can teach us about boring old geopolitics on Earth. It’s an awesome episode; enjoy!

And to everyone who’s been with us for the whole ride: holy simoleons, thank you!

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US-China Competition with Prof. Chris Balding Sep 09, 2019

Prof. Chris Balding, Professor at Fullbright University Vietnam, joins us to help us break into the factors driving US-China competition, and helps us understand some of the fundamentals behind what's likely to come over the next few years.

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Why Do Nations Go to War? with Mike Mzzarr Aug 26, 2019

Repeat-guest Michael Mazarr of RAND, has recently published a bunch of very intriguing work that challenges how Xander and Erik think about foreign policy and war. We decided to grill him to see what we could learn!

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Finding BS and Other Semantics Analysis in the 2020 Election, with Danielle Deibler Aug 12, 2019

In Wedged, we talk about BS and bias in media coverage of elections. We've always wondered: Can we measure it?

Turns out, someone can. Danielle Deibler is the CEO/founder of Marvelous.ai: she's where AI and politics meet. In this episode, Danielle walks us through how we can measure BS, bias, and other sentiment in media coverage, with the 2020 election as a case study. We learned a ton and you will, too.

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Race and Poverty and the House Ownership Gap: An Interview with Alanna McCargo Jul 29, 2019

We had the pleasure of hosting Alanna McCargo, VP of Housing and Finance Policy at the Urban Institute to help us answer a listener question about wealth inequality, and Xander came across an incredible article with an important question: how does real estate impact the ongoing wealth gap between white Americans and Americans of color? And what drives the ongoing housing gap?

The answer is…. pretty darn complicated. Thanks as always to the Urban Institute for the really enlightening conversation and great questions. Alanna is awesome; this is definitely worth a listen!

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The Possible Meanings of Peace Talks in America's Longest War Jul 19, 2019

18 years have passed, and Kabul and its US allies have failed to destroy the Taliban. Finally, it seems like serious peace talks are beginning, but war remains and any peace would likely include Talibani power in Afghanistan. This is a moment for the US to reflect on its true goals.

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Is Trump Taking Orders From Moscow? Jul 08, 2019

It's often taken as given that Trump is acting on Moscow's behalf in his foreign policy. In this episode we ask: what foreign policy would be in Russia's interest? And is Trump following that foreign policy, or a different one?

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Free Stuff! Jun 20, 2019

With the Democratic 2020 Primary heating up (already), serious proposals about more free stuff in America have come to the front of the national conversation. What would free college look like? What about free healthcare? What would the impact be? We take an ever-so-shallow look at all of these to help you navigate through a few of the proposals.

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Announcements! Intelligent Speech Conference + Flick Jun 09, 2019

Come join us! https://www.intelligentspeechconference.com/ Saturday June 29th, 11 am – 7 pm The Centre for Social Innovation, New York

Talk to us on Flick! https://flickchat.page.link/YEVW7YUfy3amVEvq7

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Why The Heck is the US Election Cycle So Long? May 20, 2019

There are, as usual, structural reasons why the election cycle is so long. This year's is bigger and earlier than ever. Has it always been this way? If not, what happened?

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WHO IS THE NIGHT KING!? And Other Media BS May 08, 2019

In which Erik gets sucked into Game of Thrones theory clickbait, and then realizes that this has an excellent analogy to political media.

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Long-Term Consequences of US Drug Wars Apr 10, 2019

What have been the long term consequences of US and allied drug policy? In this episode we look at both domestic demand and foreign supply efforts, and the results that have come from them.

This is all in a response to questions from listener Russell Waldman; keep them coming, everyone!

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Recent Revelation: Healthcare Monopsony Buying Power Mar 25, 2019

Many single-payer (nationally funded) healthcare systems pay a lot less for drugs, services, and equipment than US insurers do. They have a monopsony and therefore a lot of buying power--makes sense, right? Erik recently has a revelation that calls this logic into question... though without any clear answers.

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[Listener Question]: Long-Term Geopolitical Consequences of the Iraq War Mar 17, 2019

One of our beloved Patrons asked us: "what are the long-term consequences of the Iraq War?" Great question--we couldn't resist taking a crack at it.

In this episode we hear about the balance of the middle east changed, for Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, ISIS, and global powers.

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How to Dismantle Entrenched Bias, with David Campt Mar 03, 2019

David Campt, "The Dialogue Guy," founder of the Ally Conversation Toolkit, who you may know from The Daily Show, joins ReConsider to help us learn how to better talk to people. Straight up this is one of the best shows we've ever had.

We learned so much from David about the emotions, roadblocks, and pitfalls that get in the way of having an effective conversation in dismantling bias and changing minds; as well as an incredibly effective and compelling methodology to actually getting into the trenches with someone and making real process. This is a must listen.

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Flash Update: The Indian Airstrike in Pakistan Feb 27, 2019

India has just launched a military operation into Pakistan—an airstrike—for the first time in decades. And they’re both nuclear powers. We rarely get to stay on top of very current events, but this is such a significant incident—and something so easy to spin and sensationalize—that we wanted to get ahead of it. So get the full scoop of what happened, and the ramifications, right now from Xander.

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It Pays to Polarize Feb 09, 2019

In response to a listener question about who is and isn’t part of the “tribes” in American politics, Erik does an episode himself on political polarization, pulling directly from his Sound Education talk on political polarization.

Head to our YouTube channel for the slide show version!

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Bias and Tribalism with Chris Martin of Heterodox Academy Jan 22, 2019

Today we link up with the venerable Chris Martin of Heterodox Academy, and host of Half Hour of Heterodoxy. We spend 45 minutes discussing heterodoxy, because we are long-winded.

We ask tough questions such as:

-Is it even possible to not do the thinking for you?

-How do we discuss tribalism without evoking false equivalence?

-What does heterodoxy even mean in a bi-polar political society?

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Tribal Flippage on Trade and Immigration Jan 11, 2019

You might feel pretty strongly about trade and immigration policy--either very happy or very cranky with the way things are currently being done. But you might be surprised to learn that your tribe might have felt very differently about it just a few years ago.

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A Very Late Halloween Special: WE DO THE THINKING FOR YOU Dec 28, 2018

Xander and Erik are crazy-busy, and we're very sorry about that. In lieu of this fortnight's episode, here is our Halloween Special from Agoraphobia 2018: "WE DO THE THINKING FOR YOU." Yes it's silly, but it's of course meant to get us thinking about how we frame the behavior of our tribe and our enemy tribe in ways that makes it impossible to be introspective.

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Breaking Down Government Spending Dec 09, 2018

“Congressman Erik: just say no.”

Erik’s on the warpath over that darned image we got for the listener Q&A, so Xander and Erik are going to talk about how the US government actually spends its money. Prepare to be surprised!

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Emergency Thanksgiving Dinner Guide Nov 22, 2018

So hey Thanksgiving is coming up; time for an emergency prep episode! If your Thanksgiving turns into fighting, and you don’t want it to, we can help! Challenge yourself to have a great political conversation rather than a brutal slugfest.

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Listener Q&A! Nov 09, 2018

In this episode we do a big listener Q&A! We’ve gathered a few questions over the past few months and we decided to run with the juiciest ones. We’ll do this again, keep sending questions in! Here’s what we cover:

Yemen
Social Security
Kashoggi
Sports in diplomacy
Sweden, immigration, and sexual crime

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The 2018 Global Economic Outlook: Pt II Oct 22, 2018

Post technical difficulties, we’re back! More Jake, more great questions about the global economic market.

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The 2018 Global Economic Look - Part 1 Oct 14, 2018

So much has gone down over the last year that we needed some proper professional econ help to sort it out. So we called Jake Meyer to come back to join us--luckily for us, he did!

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Toolbox Talk: Midterms Mania Oct 07, 2018

Don’t wait until a week before midterms to start your research! Get a leg up on where to get accurate information on your (many) voting choices with ReConsider’s guide to the election this year.

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ReConsidering China IV: The History of China Sep 30, 2018

China's history is long. Like, really long. Its memory is, too. Want to understand how China sees the world today? You need to understand how it sees its place over the last 3600 years.

We're lucky enough to welcome Chris Stewart of The History of China Podcast to help us scratch the surface. But really, if you want to dive in, go check out _his_ podcast: http://www.thehistoryofchina.wordpress.com

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Introducing: American Scandal Sep 27, 2018

Since the founding of the United States, in every generation, in every field of business, politics, sports and society, we’ve watched in shock as corruption, deceit and desire bring down heroes, titans and those we thought we could trust.

In the aftermath, we’re left with too many questions, how did this happen? Who is to blame?

Subscribe to American Scandal today. www.wondery.fm/scandal

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ReConsidering China Part 3: THE TRADE WAR Sep 17, 2018

Trade war’s on, baby. Why is it happening? What’s at stake? How does free trade even work?

Are tariffs against China The Art of the Deal, or the tantrums of a madman? Is China a trade cheater or is Trump just pandering to the base?

Time to get some context.

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ReConsidering China Pt 2: The Chinese Economy Sep 06, 2018

Is the Chinese economy a powerhouse, or a house of cards ready to fall down? Is it going to overtake the US, or crash terribly and burn?

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Preview: American Innovations Sep 02, 2018

Like geopolitics and economics, technology shapes our world and our choices--as individuals and as nations. American Innovations by Wondery dives into some of the world-changing innovations that came through the United States. It looks not just at the science, but the story, the drama, and the ah-ha! moments behind each great innovation. In this preview, you'll learn about America's first hack at AI... by getting a computer to play chess.

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The Iran Nuclear Deal is Done: Time for WWIII? Aug 13, 2018

Trump just reimposed the sanctions on Iran that had been previously lifted by the nuclear deal--the deal is dead. Trump wants a new deal. Rouhani is under pressure and claiming he wants a fight. Is scrapping the deal a good idea or a bad idea? What does it mean for Iran and the Middle East?

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ReConsidering China, Pt I Aug 02, 2018

We're having a trade war! How exciting. So China is... our friend? Enemy? FRENEMY? They... want to take over Asia? Taiwan? The US? THE WORLD? Are they a fair trading partner or a cheater? A reasonable place or a dictatorship?

There are many conceptions and misconceptions about China. Let's start taking them on.

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The Balkans and the Duality of Nationalism Jul 16, 2018

Nationalism gets a pretty bad rap these days. And not for bad reason. But it’s a complicated topic and has a lot of history… some of it very good. ReConsidering how we understand nationalism will help us grapple with how to maybe even use it for good.

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2018 World Tour (part 1) Jul 02, 2018

Since we've been talking about economics for 6 months, a lot has happened throughout the world! And people have wanted to know about it. So today we're covering interesting events in South Africa, North Korea, Iran, and Turkey. All great opportunities to ReConsider.

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How Bad's the National Debt? Jun 18, 2018

In this episode we answer some listener questions about the national debt! Namely:

-How big is it?

-How much does China/etc own and what does that mean?

-But seriously guys are we in trouble here?

Learn all of this and more on today's episode!

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A Retort to the Austrians Jun 04, 2018

Last time we interviewed Carlos Lara and Prof. Robert Murphy to give us the Austrian perspective on the boom & bust cycle. Today we’re going to see the another side of the debate, with the help of Jake Meyer, a Nobel Prize losing economist at California State University!

Jake’s work focuses on empirically studying the interaction of the international finance system and domestic political factors, particularly looking at financial crises and credit--all very relevant to the boom/bust cycle debate. He’s also a research economist at Forensic Economic Services, was part of the faculty at Claremont Graduate University, and got his Masters and PhD from Claremont as well.

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How Dead Philosophers Influence Us Today May 21, 2018

Today we're joined by Emmet and Karl of OnlineGreatBooks.com to discuss why a bunch of dead thinkers are still hyper-relevant today. We talk about their impact on society and politics, as well as make a case for why they should still be read if we want to understand the world around us, and ourselves. The three philosophers that go under the microscope: Plato, Machiavelli, and Marx.

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The Austrian take on the Boom & Bust Cycle May 08, 2018

In the past few episodes we've talked about a number of different economic theories about the trade cycle and the Fed's role in it. Today the Austrians have their say. We interview L. Carlos Lara (CEO of United Services & Trust Corporation) and Professor Robert P. Murphy (of Texas Tech), fellow podcasters and experts on Austrian economics, to get the lowdown of the self-styled heterodox school of economics.

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Breaking Down the GOP Tax Bill, with Jon Schwabish of the Urban Institute Apr 23, 2018

The GOP Tax Bill was marketed to supercharge growth, help the middle class, and boost worker pay. It’s sold both as a “tax cut” and as “tax reform.” Some people really liked it, some people really hated it, but most people don't know much about it. Let's find out!

Show notes at reconsidermedia.com/podcast

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Is the US on the Same Path as Ancient Rome or Athens? Apr 09, 2018

In this episode we welcome Lantern Jack of Ancient Greece Declassified to help us with the burning question we keep getting: how much is the United States today like the ancient Roman Republic or, perhaps, like ancient Athens? Are we going down hard and fast? Are we bound for glory? How much are we even like these ancient civilizations? Learn about all this plus a small bonus about fast food in the ancient world!

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Around the World in 80 Minutes (AKA Mercator Projections Suck) Mar 23, 2018

Erik and Xander podcast together for the 3rd time ever in Boston! We grab a map and go: no agenda, no plan. It's a ton of fun. You'll find out all there is to know about the world as of precisely March 22nd, 2018.

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Fundamentals of Monetary Policy with Dr. Marron Mar 14, 2018

In this episode, Dr. Donald Marron of the Urban Institute joins us to help bring a big chunk of economic expertise to the discussion we've been having about economics and particularly monetary policy this year. We even manage to get him to crack a few jokes with us about topics from butter to Bitcoin.

Dr. Marron served on the President's Council of Economic Advisers and was Director of the Congressional Budget Office. As you can guess from all this experience, he's particularly great at explaining economics to smart people who aren't economists. We had a ton of fun and know you will, too.

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Introducing: This Is War Mar 14, 2018

A raw look at the combat and homecoming experience from American veterans who have been deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. “This Is War” chronicles the trials of combat vets both abroad and at home.

Listen today on wondery.fm/reconsider

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The End of the Gold Standard (AKA, Dude, Where's My Bullion?) Feb 19, 2018

Last episode we heard a lot of arguments in the favor of the gold standard as opposed to having a fiat currency. In this episode we'll understand the decline of the gold standard and the reasons behind it to learn some of the hurdles to returning.

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Ethics, Humanity, and Meaning--Exploring Themes of Bladerunner Jan 31, 2018

Go check out Beyond the Big Screen and hear Xander and Erik uncover how Blade Runner discusses these questions, and gets viewers to ReConsider what it means to be human. https://www.atozhistorypage.com/big-screen

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Money From Nothing (And Your Chits for Free) Jan 29, 2018

Now that ain't workin'--that's the way you do it!

What the heck is fiat currency? Why are we on it? Can the US print money to pay its debts? Why do people want to return to the Gold Standard? Find out all of this and more as we kick off a series on economics that will include everything from inflation to interest rates to Bitcoin!

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Rising Separatism in Europe Pt II: The Threat to the Nation-State Jan 09, 2018

Do separatist movements in Catalonia, Basque, Lombardy & Venecia, and other places, constitute a larger threat to the nation-state? What drives people to move towards fixing a nation versus leaving it when they're fed up?

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Christmas Special: What Happens When the Arctic Melts? Dec 25, 2017

Santa's workshop is underwater, and new shipping lanes emerge in an area once thought of as an insignificant edge on the global map. What happens when the Arctic starts getting wet in the summer? How does climate change affect the conflict between NATO and Russia, global shipping lanes, and habitation patterns?

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Rising Separatism in Europe, Pt 1: Catalonia Kickoff Dec 11, 2017

Catalonia declared independence. It didn't go well. But why did they? Why now? And what are the implications for the rest of Europe?

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Why Does the US Have a Two-Party System? Nov 25, 2017

Ever wonder why the United States has a system with two parties and not more? Find out why the US system is the way it is, and why other countries are different.

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Refugees and Rise of Anti-Immigrantism in Europe Nov 14, 2017

"Multiculturalism leads to parallel societies and therefore remains a ‘life lie,’ [or ‘sham’]... “ -- Angela Merkel, 2015

Just after enacting the "open door" migrant policy, Angela Merkel and all of Europe faced a political backlash, including rising nationalism and anti-immigrant sentiment. Europe took in a fairly small number of Middle Eastern refugees. Why has it been so painful?

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After Vegas: Solving Gun Violence in America Oct 21, 2017

After the largest mass civilian shooting in history, can we come together as a nation to reduce violence? Yes, but it requires good problem solving skills.

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Why Fracking is Changing Everything About Geopolitics Oct 06, 2017

You've heard of the Fracking Revolution. You may also know that your fuel bill is a little lower than it was in the 2000s.But man oh man, the picture is much bigger than that. The Middle East, Europe, Russia, and the foreign policy of the United States may be substantially different--for decades to come--than they would have been without the Revolution.So yeah. Big deal.

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Realism in History: Case Studies Sep 12, 2017

Zack Twamley of "When Diplomacy Fails" joins us to put realism to the test throughout history. The exciting thing for you? He's not a realist. Join us as we pick a war out of a hat and chat about how--and whether--realism can explain how it came to be.

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Toolbox Talk: Understanding International Affairs with Realism Aug 31, 2017

Why do certain countries go to war, where others don't? How do the domestic policies and the personalities of leaders get involved? In this episode you'll learn the most widely-used lens for understanding the causes behind international affairs: realism. In one hour you'll be able to view the international order with greater structure than ever before.

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Crises in Venezuela and North Korea Aug 11, 2017

Is Venezuela's government going to fall? Is North Korea going to fire nukes? Is the US going to fire nukes? Are Maduro and Kim just madmen? Is Trump? Two dictatorial regimes, both of which hate the US, both entering crises and both facing substantial constraints about how they can try to navigate them. And the US, attempting to deal with the North Korean crisis, has its own constraints as well. In this episode you'll understand the forces that are pushing Venezuela into a domestic crisis and North Korea into conflict with the US. You'll learn what options are available to everyone and why they're limited. And you'll learn a little more about how to analyze the global stage beyond the rhetoric.

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Trump's Domestic Policy vs. Checks and Balances Jul 28, 2017

President Trump has had a lot of trouble getting a legislative win, and he's pressing Congress harder than ever to deliver one. The GOP has both the House and the Senate--what are the forces keeping them from getting things done?

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Toolbox Talk: The Modern Stoic Jul 14, 2017

Politics gets emotional. However the emotional part of our brain was designed not for rational thought, but for knee-jerk survival mechanisms. How can we train our brain to think more clearly about politics in our daily lives?In this episode, Erik and Xander talk Stoicism, a philosophy and thought strategy that has been used for thousands of years by everyone from slaves to emperors to get a grip on the turbulent world around them. You'll learn why Stoicism is so powerful, and you can apply it in your life and conversations today.

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A Little Historical Perspective - Trump, the US, Europe, NATO in the Big Picture Jul 01, 2017

HEY! The sound quality on this is junk. Really sorry. Technical issue that we didn't realize was there until we were done. We've figured out how to keep it from happening again.The US and the world seem like they're in a really odd, perhaps dangerous place right now. Throughout history, people have felt like their own time defines the status quo, and all history going forward is either a path from that moment, or a departure from it.Getting a sense of the big picture from the perspective of the past--and the big trends that emerge--can give us a sense of where we really sit in history, and what we might be able to expect next.This episode is mostly answering a bunch of questions from our last ReConsider Cabinet meeting! For those of you who are higher-level Patreon patrons, remember you can send us questions to answer and we'll take 'em on!

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ReConsidering Russia Pt 4: The Putin Trump Relationship Jun 07, 2017

AKA, "The Bromance of the Bad Hombres"In this episode we interview Prof. Stephen Sestanovich, a Colombia professor, think tank big wig, and prolific writer. Formerly ambassador-at-large and special advisor to Madeleine Albright. Prof. Stestanovich puts the Putin-Trump relationship in context by warming us up with understanding the evolving US/Russia Presidential relationship since the end of the Cold War. Strap in for this info-packed episode!

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Comey, and Speculating on Trump May 18, 2017

AKA: My Homie, ComeyWelp. Trump fired Comey. If things weren't crazy enough in the White House right now.There's a pretty incredible amount of speculation about why he did it and what it could mean. How much do we actually know? And where is all the speculation getting us?

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ReConsidering Russia Pt III: Russia's Interest & What to Expect Going Forward May 08, 2017

What is Russia's current interest on its borders, and what considerations will shape its behavior over the next 20 years? Prof. Mitchell Orenstein is the Professor of Central and East European politics in the Slavic Department at the University of Pennsylvania and an associate of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard. We're thrilled to have him and as always we learn a ton.

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The Airstrike on Syria in Context Apr 12, 2017

Much hubbub over the Syrian airstrike--everything from patriotic fervor to seemingly-genuine terror about World War 3. What happens when we take a step back from the hype and political spin, and look at the strike in the context of geopolitics, international relations, and history?

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ReConsidering Russia Pt II: Russia's Complex History Mar 27, 2017

We're joined by Mark Schauss to give us a whirlwind tour of Russian history. Mark is the host of the Russian Rulers History Podcast: http://russianrulers.podhoster.com/Mark attended Queens College in New York, studied Russian History and Economics, got his doctorate in Business. Lecturer on cognitive function, environmental health, other medical issues, and also Russian History!We walk through how Russia has dealt with its neighbors and the world, through the Mongols, the Great Northern War, the Napoleonic War, the later 1800s, WWI, WWII, the Cold War, and post-Cold War. It's a ton of fun.

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ReConsidering Russia Part 1: Russia Today Mar 08, 2017

(Not the news source.)Joining us is Sean Guillory of Sean's Russia Blog and Podcast, at seansrussiablog.org. He has a PhD in Russian History from UCLA.Sean helps us dive into the nitty gritty about what's actually going on with Russia today. We ask:-Who's in charge? How does Russia's leadership work?-Why is United Russia so popular?-What's the economy really look like?-How corrupt is Russia?-How do Russians feel about the world?-What's the plan in Ukraine? How's it going?-What about the Syria intervention?-Did Russia manipulate US elections?-Why is Russia picking a fight with NATO?-What common narratives about Russia just don't make sense?Enjoy!

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ReConsidering Russia Part 0: Intro Mar 01, 2017

Russia is a scary place--and very misunderstood. We decided it deserves 4 whole episodes unto itself. We'll be teaming up with 4 big-wigs that know their stuff about Russia to help you dive deep and understand Russia a whole lot better.

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The Effectiveness of Political Violence in History Feb 10, 2017

Or, "How'd punching Nazis work out last time?"People in the United States are starting to talk about using political violence in response to perceived dangerous political extremism and violent rhetoric. We look through history to see how the use of violence had worked or not worked to suppress unwelcome political ideologies.We look purely at the results and consequences of the violence, rather than discussing the morality or ethics of it.

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Podemos, Trump, and the Populist's Path to Power Jan 23, 2017

If we want to learn a little bit more about Trump's path to the Presidency, we can look to recent history. It's not actually totally unprecedented. Spain, going through its own very tough economic times, has vaulted the populist-left Podemos to the fore, out of nowhere at all. Podemos is a bunch of political outsiders with a Marxist approach to campaigning--and they adopted this style very deliberately. They have a lot to teach us about what might become the new politics of the 21st century.We're joined by author, campaign adviser, and VisualPolitik director Fonseca Porras to learn more about Podemos and discuss the parallels with Trump in this particularly exciting episode!

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Immigration & Xenophobia in History II: Shakespeare's Sir Thomas More Jan 13, 2017

There's a play called Sir Thomas More that is _not_ Shakespeare... but scholars have agreed that its most awe-inspiring monologue was indeed written by Shakespeare himself. In Sir Ian McKellen's words: "you'll know when you hear it."Xander delivers a special episode today: he reads the famous monologue from the play, on refugees. He does it first in modern English so you can understand it well, and then follows up with the Original Pronunciation, which was the English used in Shakespeare's time. the OP dramatically improves the rhyme and rhythm of the reading.In this monologue, More appeals to angry Englishmen about their treatment of immigrants. Normally I would summarize it, but I would do it no justice--this simply has to be heard.Sir Ian McKellen also delivers this monologue in a 2013 performance and totally kills it. Check it out here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjEAeOshUGQ Link to your youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_MfONE3jNBTMY8xo78k0_AVideo of the 2 dudes who...

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Immigration and Xenophobia in History Jan 05, 2017

People of another religion are showing up, and not all of them are friendly--some are even kinda terrorists. The economic situation is pretty tough

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Ep 31: The Changing International Order Dec 29, 2016

Politics: but we don't do the thinking for you.

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The Electoral College: WHY!? Dec 15, 2016

But seriously, why on earth do we have the Electoral College? Something about having to travel in carriages? It's a question a lot of people are asking after an election with a pretty big gap between the popular vote and the outcome. So why on earth does it exist? What's the point? Is it fulfilling its purpose? What alternatives are there, and how would we get to them?Learn all this and more, including why you don't kill your admirals, on today's episode!

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The Trump-olution Dec 02, 2016

"I'm gonna drain the swamp."Love him or hate him, Donald Trump's rise and agenda are a political revolution. But revolutions are hard, even after you win. Most have failed miserably. What will it take for Trump to fulfill his vision, rather than fall apart?

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Shakespeare's Propaganda Nov 21, 2016

English King Richard III was a bad bad dude, right? If you're a fan of Shakespeare, you know this is true.But what if there's more to the story? We subbed in for the English Renaissance History podcast a ways back and asked that question. Today we take a look at a guy that's gotten no love of history.

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President Donald J Trump Nov 09, 2016

It happened. It's a shocker, but it happened. There's a lot of pain and frustration across the country--and no matter what, half of it was going to be really upset today. How did Trump pull the upset? Where do we go from here? How do we understand each other better and heal the divide?

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One Minute to Armageddon (Halloween Special!) Oct 28, 2016

Originally broadcast on the Agora Podcast Network's "Agoraphobia" series, Erik and Xander recount the true story from 1983 of how the world was a single crazy decision away from nuclear annihilation.

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Toolbox Talk: Electing Judges Oct 24, 2016

If you're in the US, odds are good you'll be voting for a judge or six this November. It's hard, and _really_ different from electing a representative or executive.So how the heck do you do it? How do you judge your potential judges? If you want to be a responsible citizen, you gotta give this one a listen.

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Polling and Direct Democracy, WTF Oct 19, 2016

Why are referendums ending up so different from how polls suggest?From Brexit to the FARC peace deal, there have been some shockers in referendums: the polls have very much gone one way, and the results another.So what the heck is going on? In this episode, Xander and Erik talk about how polling works, how it might be going so wrong, and what oddities are going on with direct democracy versus the representative stuff we're used to.

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The Very Big Deal FARC Peace Deal Sep 28, 2016

A 55-year-old civil war may be about to come to an end. The government of Colombia and FARC have hammered out a big, complicated, icky peace deal, and it's going to referendum on October 2nd. The consequences for Colombia, the geopolitics of the Western Hemisphere, and other civil conflicts could be huge. It's something you should know about, and we'll give you the context to be up to speed.

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The Stephanie Experiment Sep 19, 2016

What if you decided to immerse yourself in the opposite political narrative to what you know?That's just what Stephanie did. She lives surrounded by liberal news media and friends, and she decided to spend a few months reading and listening only to Fox News, to understand what's missing from her own narrative.The results are awesome.

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Go Home 2016, You're Drunk! Sep 06, 2016

Everything's falling apart! The breakdown of multilateral institutions! Anti-establishment candidates are popping up everywhere! Russia is escalating! China! Syria! Turkey! Terrorism!What's it all look like in the long-term?

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After the Conventions: Do The Parties Know How to Party? Aug 22, 2016

The Party Conventions have come and gone. Each of the two major parties has made their case to America that their candidate is fit to lead. What's the takeaway for the country? What are the underlying strategies of each party and what groups are they trying to win? What do each of them, and the convention system in general, mean for the future of the US?

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The Big South China Sea Ruling Aug 08, 2016

UNCLOS has ruled on China's claim to the South China Sea and China is totally on board with it. Just kidding! Now the fun begins. The Philippines sued China about its territorial claims in the South China Sea and won--basically, the UN said that China's claims to the territory are total BS because the rocks in the South China Sea aren't real islands.China has (not surprisingly) said that they're not going to follow the judgment (despite being a cosigner of UNCLOS). Now there's a bit of a crisis: how can the world enforce the ruling? Sanctions? Military?And what happens if major world powers begin openly flouting international law? What happens to those institutions and international world stability? It's a scary thought.

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Some Good News on the ISIS Front Jul 25, 2016

Anti-ISIS forces have scored a string of victories recently, and lots of people haven't heard about them. Why do we hear about the defeats, but not the victories? How can we get the full picture?

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Education in America, Pt II Jul 18, 2016

After busting some myths about US education performance and its causes, we interview renowned SF Teacher of the Year Lana Corda to understand some of the challenges facing one of the toughest school districts in the country. We learn a lot about the on-the-ground details about some of the barriers to improving student performance.

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Education in America, Pt I Jul 12, 2016

How's the US education system performing relative to other countries? How can we improve our own performance?

There are many opinions and narratives about what to do, and in this episode, Xander and Erik dive into the data to understand which hold water, and which are swept away by facts.

Check out sources on the companion post page!

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Brexit II: Judgment Day Jun 25, 2016

Welp: it happened! Britain had its referendum, and they're leaving the European Union. What the heck happens next? What are the short- and long-term consequences, and what is the UK going to do?

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Free Speech in America Jun 06, 2016

Toolbox Talk: Power! May 22, 2016

"Speak softly and carry a big stick." Or, "speak loudly and carry an even bigger stick!" There are different kinds of power and different ways to wield them... and it's not always clear what's our best kind of power to bring to bear in a given situation. In this "toolbox talk," we team up with Kelsey, who runs the Women in Diplomacy podcast, to work through the meanings of hard, soft, and smart power, and their benefits and drawbacks.

Plugs

Errata:

When discussing Russia and Ukraine, Erik says "Haidan Revolution" and meant "Maidan Revolution"

Sources

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Brexit! May 06, 2016

David Cameron doesn't want the UK to leave the EU, but he set up the referendum for Brits to vote on it. Why the heck would he do that? How likely is Brexit to happen? Who wants it and who's against it? What are the stay/leave arguments? What will be the implications for the UK, Europe, the US, and the globe as a whole if the UK leaves or stays? This is hugely complex and hugely important, and the vote is coming up soon: June 23. So time to get yourself some context.

Bonus: Kelsey's Podcast, "Women in Diplomacy." Go check it out. She gets some amazing interviews and we've learned a ton. And she interviews us, as well!

Reasonable Summary of In & Out Arguments Polls and Migration #'s European Institutions: Cheat Sheet Sources

The Economist summarizing Brexit:Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast.

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Tiny Little Rocks, Big Deal Pt II Apr 11, 2016

Now that we have a decent idea of the history of Chinese, East Asian, and US diplomacy and foreign policy, it's time to throw all of this into the crucible of the South China Sea. It's a powderkeg of epic proportions, but it's something most Americans know very little about. This is a really important issue and a big pivot point in the upcoming American presidential election.

"We're gonna need a bigger boat."

Claims in the South China Sea Outposts in South China Sea Claims and Facilities Oil and Gas in South China Sea Chinese Territorial Claims Naval Power in East Asia Images of Buildup Sources

http://news.usni.org/2016/03/28/opinion-dont-miss-the-boat-on-australian-and-u-s-policy-in-the-south-china-sea
...
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Tiny Rocks, Big Deal Pt I Mar 30, 2016

There are tiny little rocks in the South China sea that have become a pretty big deal. China has claimed them as its own, putting air bases, missile batteries, and harbors on the islands to stake its claim. It's become a huge, but quiet, international struggle. Why are they suddenly so important, and what is the historical context behind it all? In this two-part episode, we let you in on it.

Spratly Islands Map Harbors Being Built on Spratlys Taiwanese Hotel Construction on Spratlys Chinese Deep-Defense Strategy Against Japanese Invasion in WWII Farthest Extent of Chinese Borders and Chinese Claims Sources

Taylor Fravel, Strong Borders Secure Nation
Carrier locations
Taiwan pushing...
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Delegate Math in the 2016 US Primary Mar 13, 2016

Hoo boy, we've got an exciting presidential nomination this year. More and more we're hearing rumblings that the GOP might go to a brokered convention. But... how the heck does that work? What'll happen if it gets there? How likely is it? Find out all that and more in our wackiest episode yet! This episode's a ton of fun. Listen before Tuesday, March 15th if you can!

UPDATE: Kasich takes the lead in Ohio according to 538's polls-only forecast.

UPDATE: Rubio's team encouraging voters in Ohio to vote Kasich.

...

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Apple vs. FBI Mar 10, 2016

The FBI wants Apple to write some code to unlock the phone of the San Bernardino shooter, and Apple has filed an appeal to make sure they're not compelled to do so. Is it a ravenous attack on privacy? Is it not a big deal? Xander and Erik have done a ton of research and take on both sides of the argument: should Apple be forced to write the code? What are the long-term implications?

We break down the technical details, the precedents and legal cases being brought to bear, and the potential long-term consequences and precedents. This week's episode is a great example of political disagreement in the Considerate style!

UPDATE: Edward Snowden weighs in on the FBI's claim that it needs Apple's help to get into Farook's phone, calling it "bullshit."

UPDATE 2: Apple claims that if the FBI...

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Oil Prices Feb 23, 2016

It's hard to get a good sense of why the price of oil can vary between $150 and $30 per barrel. There are a lot of factors behind the price, but in the end it all comes down to supply and demand. In this episode we break down how supply and demand have changed to drive down the price... and discuss what might change in the future.

The story gets complicated fast: shale, tar sands, Iran, Russia, the Arctic, China, and hippies all get some airtime. We don't tell you what to think, but we do help you break it down.

Just note: we're not financial advisers and this isn't financial advice.

Sources:

Brent spot price: https://ycharts.com/indicators/brent_crude_oil_spot_price
World oil production: ...
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Iran, Nukes, and Middle East Policy Feb 09, 2016

Demagogues in History... and Today Jan 20, 2016

You might be worried that in the US and Western Europe, there are some pretty scary folks that are getting pretty popular. Those folks--who appeal to our fears and hatred to get power--are called demagogues. We've seen them throughout history, from the very first Democracy--Athens--up through today. Xander and Erik give a brief history of demagogues throughout history to show that we've seen this story before... and then we have a good conversation about what to do when we see demagoguery creeping in.

Direct Sources

The Peloponnesian War
"Demagogue" Wikipedia Page
Joshua Greene's Moral Tribes
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Western ISIS Policy Jan 06, 2016

In our first "meaty" episode, Xander and Erik tackle ISIS, with such awesome questions as:

1. What considerations should govern how we try to take down ISIS?

2. Why is current policy against ISIS not working?

3. What's different about ISIS from enemies past that means we need a new strategy?

4. What about human nature and western politics keeps us from taking on ISIS in the right way?

Articles from the podcast:

The Atlantic article, "What ISIS Really Wants"
Samuel Huntington's Clash of Civilizations
The really great Wikipedia page...
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Introduction and Background Jan 06, 2016

ReConsider will help you become a better democratic citizen in 10 minutes a day or less, (or your money back!) which is probably more than you spend on your abs, but not by much.

We help provide new context and insight on tough issues citizens face, help you understand why this context and insight isn't currently part of the national dialogue, and help you to better find that context in the future on your own.

In this ten-minute short, we get you excited about listening.

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