Rational Security

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The “Live from Aspen” Edition Jul 21, 2025

Show notes

Scott recorded this week’s special episode live from the 2025 Aspen Security Forum, where he sat down with a panel of top national security journalists—including co-host emeritus Shane Harris of The Atlantic, Mark Goldberg of the Global Dispatches podcast, and Alex Ward of the Wall Street Journal—to talk about some of the issues that have emerged at and around this year’s Forum, including:

“Putting the Ass in Aspen.” Twenty-four hours before the Aspen Security Forum was set to begin, the Defense Department barred more than a dozen officials who had been publicly set to participate, for months, on the grounds that the Forum promotes “the evils of globalism.” What does this tell us about the Trump administration’s relationship to the foreign policy establishment?
“Rolling Alone.” While U.S. officials were in short supply at the Forum, foreign officials were not, as foreign ministers and other officials from Europe, Asia, and other corners of the world had a heavy representation on the panels. And while those panels often addressed different topics, at least one common theme tended to emerge across them: the challenges of the new era of major power competition, especially at a moment when the United States seems especially skeptical of traditional alliances and multilateral institutions. What did we learn about the challenges these countries are facing? And what does it mean for the United States’ ability to strategically compete?
“Deus Ex Machina.” If there is one topic that was represented at almost every panel at this year’s Forum, it is the question of Artificial Intelligence — how important it is, what it will do to solve the world’s problems, new problems it will cause, and all it will cost to win the race to perfecting it. But is AI really that important? Or does its ubiquity in national security conversation reflect more hype than substance?

For object lessons, Shane shared his latest piece for The Atlantic about an old man, a dog, and the CIA’s efforts to keep them apart. Scott endorsed the Aspen Security Forum itself and urged those not in attendance to check out Aspen’s recordings of the event—as well as the recordings of various side conversations he made, which will be up on the Lawfare Daily feed later this week. Mark recommended his new podcast with Anjali Dayal on the United Nations, To Save Us From Hell, which they release as part of his U.N. Dispatchnewsletter. And Alex shared his quest to read a book about each U.S. president, what it’s taught him about how weird the presidents are, and the online community that’s helping him get through it.

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The “Altered State” Edition Jul 16, 2025

Show notes

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Eric Ciaramella to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:

“With Arms Wide Open.” After years of open skepticism toward Ukraine (and uncharacteristic deference to Russia), it seems President Trump may have turned a page. His rhetoric has grown cooler toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, and he has proven more willing to provide arms to Ukraine, even over contrary efforts by some of his advisers—including an agreement to provide Ukraine with Patriot missiles and other U.S.-made, Europe-funded weapons. What explains this switch? And how durable is it likely to prove?
“Hitting Foggy Bottom.” Just days after the Supreme Court removed a preliminary injunction, the State Department went forward with substantial personnel cuts, RIFing 1,350 foreign and civil service personnel in Washington, D.C. It’s all part of a much broader reorganization that State Department leadership claims will make the Department leaner or more efficient, even as it guts personnel working on issues disfavored by the Trump administration.
“Waiting for the Intel Impressment.” Since the Trump administration’s June 21 airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, a heated debate has raged over their effects. The administration maintains the strikes were “historically successful” and permanently set back the Iranian nuclear program. But media reports source to people within the intelligence community have suggested a much more limited effect. How should we weigh these competing claims? And when will we know the truth?

In object lessons, Ben asks for your public service in supporting Lawfare’s Public Service Fellowship. Scott pulled a Quinta with his recommendation of the New Yorker essay “Zohran Mamdani and Mahmoud Khalil Are in on the Joke,” by Hanif Abdurraquib. And Eric makes his summer travels epic by listening to the podcast, The Rest is History.

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The “Game Changers” Edition Jul 09, 2025

Show notes

This week, Scott sat down with fellow Senior Editors Molly Reynolds and Alan Rozenshtein to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

“One Bill to rule them all, One Bill to find them, One Bill to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.” Republicans in Congress narrowly enacted President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” last week, just in advance of the July 4 deadline he had set early in the year. What will its contents mean for elements of Trump’s national security agenda, including his immigration policies? And what does it say about his influence over fellow Republicans in Congress?
“Even a Stopped Clock is Right More Often Than This Letter.” In response to a FOIA lawsuit, the Justice Department has released copies of the letters that it sent to tech companies regarding President Trump’s pause on the enforcement of a statute intended to curtail TikTok’s availability in the United States. In the letter, the Trump administration not only suggests that the law may unconstitutionally interfere with the president’s authority over foreign affairs, but suggests that the president can “waive” the enforcement of civil penalties and otherwise commit not to enforce the law for certain periods of conduct. How persuasive are these legal arguments? And what explains tech companies’ willingness to rely on them?
“Nationwide, Not On Your Side.” At the end of its term last week, the Supreme Court issued a long-awaited decision in the birthright citizenship cases, wherein it sided with the Trump administration in ending the practice of “universal” (or nationwide) injunctions pursued by lower courts in many cases regarding challenges to government conduct. What with this holding mean, both for the birthright citizenship cases and for the broader legal system moving forward?

In object lessons, Alan marveled at the majesty of Cranbrook Schools during a recent trip to Michigan. Scott’s been here the whole time with a recommendation of Dropout TV’s Game Changer. And Molly took us down a dark and dirty, Danish-derived, detective direction with Dept. Q on Netflix.

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The “Pronghorn Shirt Daily” Edition Jun 26, 2025

Show notes

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Natalie Orpett, and University of Virginia School of Law professor Ashley Deeks, to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

“Bracing for Fallout.” In a surprise move, President Trump joined Israel’s military campaign against Iran over the weekend, using a specialized U.S. ordinance to hit Iranian nuclear sites that were beyond Israel’s early reach. It’s unclear to what extent the attack set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and debates continue to rage whether the president’s actions were wise or legal. But it did trigger an Iranian response against U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf — action that was shortly followed by a tentative U.S.-backed ceasefire between Iran and Israel. What best explains the president’s decision to join the military campaign? And what will the consequences be, both in the region and back home in the United States?
“Destinations Unknown.” In a short, unexplained opinion in the matter of DHS v. DVD this past week, the Supreme Court stayed a lower court preliminary injunction that had barred the Trump administration from removing immigrants to third countries with minimal procedural protections against threats of torture and other mistreatment. But the exact ramifications of this holding are unclear, as the Justice Department has now returned to the Court asking for clarification as to whether its ruling also invalidates a later order applying the class-wide prohibition in the initial preliminary injunction to a specific group of individuals. What explains the Supreme Court’s odd approach in this case? And what could its broader ramifications be for the Trump administration’s immigration agenda?
“‘Bove the Law.” A now-public internal Justice Department whistleblower report alleges that Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General—and current Third Circuit nominee—Emil Bove endorsed plans to disregard judicial orders that would have obstructed the removal of foreign nationals in directing the Department of Homeland Security that it did not need to return certain deportation flights already in the air after a judge directed as much from the bench. How serious a transgression has Bove committed if these allegations are true? And what impact will they have on his Third Circuit confirmation?

In object lessons, forget day-of-the-week underpants (or pronghorn shirts)! Ben spurs on a need for more day-of-the-week monsters with the last weather report you’ll ever need. Natalie is escaping, not just from reality but also from the heat, with her local bookstore, East City Bookshop. Scott shared the heartbreaking news that The Atlantic is stealing yet another Rational Security co-host emeritus as our beloved Quinta Jurecic begins her next crazy venture beneath the skies (Quinta, we miss you already!). And Ashley, channeling our bereavement at Quinta’s departure, recommends Alone on the History Channel.

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The "Middle East War to End Middle East Wars" Edition Jun 18, 2025

Show notes

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Foreign Policy Editors Daniel Byman and Dana Stuster to talk through the week’s big news in Israel and Iran, including:

“The Nuclear Option.” Israel crossed the rubicon late last week and took direct military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons program, among other targets, in an aggressive unilateral military campaign that has only expanded in the ensuing days. Iran, meanwhile, has reciprocated with volleys of attacks against Israel, some of which are getting through the substantial missile defenses Israel (and the United States) have deployed. It’s the Middle East war everyone has feared for more than a decade. How will it come to an end? And what will its ramifications be for the region?
“Bibi Got Back.” Israel has threatened to take direct military action against Iran over its nuclear program multiple times over the past two decades but has always stopped short. Why did Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proceed this time? And what will the implications be for his government, which has been teetering on the edge of collapse? And for his relationship with President Trump, his once close ally who declined to back his decision to proceed?
“Bye-Atollah.” While Israel’s official target has been Iran’s nuclear and military complexes, many observers suspect that their real goal is something else: regime change. And recent reports that Netanyahu proposed killing Iranian political and spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini—but relented after objections from the Trump administration—suggest they may be right. What might Iran look like if its current regime collapses? And will it help or hurt Israeli (and U.S.) security interests?

In Object Lessons, Tyler sang the praises of online radio station NTS.Live and NTS Guides to all of your quirky and eclectic musical tastes. Scott didn’t miss a beat with his throwback recommendation of Schoolhouse Rock song covers, with a particular fondness for Pavement’s rendition of No More Kings. And Dana shared his appreciation for analysis that takes Israel’s and Iran’s strategic calculus seriously.

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The “How Many Constitutional Crises Can We Fit Into One Episode?” Edition Jun 11, 2025

Show notes

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Molly Reynolds and Quinta Jurecic, and Contributing Editor Chris Mirasola, to focus on the week’s big domestic news, including:

“Drama Majors, Meet Major Drama.” In the glittering city of Los Angeles, the Trump administration has taken the dramatic step of calling up the California National Guard and deploying them alongside active duty Marines to secure federal personnel and facilities, specifically against protestors demonstrating against the Trump administration’s draconian immigration policies. Is this the beginning of a broader threat to the constitutional order, as some of Trump’s critics say it is? And what should we make of President Trump’s suggestion that he may yet invoke the controversial Insurrection Act?
“Precision Rescission, What’s Your Mission?” The Trump administration has asked Congress to formally rescind a slice of the federal spending it has been withholding since entering office, specifically relating to foreign assistance and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting—a request the House seems poised to move on this week. How likely is it that Congress will agree to the cut in funds? And what will the implications be for relevant legal challenges and Trump’s broader agenda?
“There and Back Again.” After an unexpected journey and epic delays on the part of the government, the Trump administration has finally repatriated Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the man who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador—only to charge him with human trafficking and other federal crimes in Tennessee. How serious are the charges against him? And is this likely to be a win or loss for the administration’s broader immigration agenda?

In object lessons, Molly shared a ranking of New York mayoral candidates by their bagel orders—and whose order is so bad, it’s a schmear on their very New Yorker-ness. Quinta recommends Ava Kofman’s profile of Curtis Yarvin in the New Yorker as a masterclass in the art of meticulous evisceration. Scott introduced his 4-year-old to his old Tintin books by Hergé—because it’s never too early to get into the drawbacks of colonialism. And Chris fled real DC drama for fake DC drama with The Residence on Netflix.

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The “Huffin’ and Puffin” Edition Jun 04, 2025

Show notes

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare’s Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina and Contributing Editors Eric Ciaramella and Alex Zerden to talk through the week’s big national security and foreign policy news, including:

“The Road to Damascus.” Over the past two weeks, the Trump administration has done an extraordinary about-face on U.S. policy towards Syria, installing almost universal exceptions to most existing sanctions programs and promising to end others. European and other allies seem poised to follow suit, all in an effort to forestall the feared collapse of the post-Assad transitional government being headed by Ahmed al-Sharaa, himself a former terrorist leader. But will it be enough to put post-Civil War Syria on the road to recovery? And will this new policy orientation prove sustainable?
“No Fly Zone.” Ukraine struck a historic blow deep into Russian territory over the weekend with a daring series of coordinated drone attacks—dubbed “Operation Spider Web”—that may have wiped out as much as a third of Moscow’s strategically important long range bombers. But will the attack help drive the costs of the conflict home to Russia, or trigger another round of escalation? And how will it be received by the Trump administration, several senior members of which are skeptical of U.S. support for Ukraine?
“Double Taxation.” President Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs suffered a pair of defeats in federal court last week, as two different courts chose to enjoin them, for two different sets of reasons. While both decisions have since been stayed, it’s a discouraging sign for the viability of the legal authorities being relied on by the Trump administration. Yet President Trump has continued to threaten tariffs aggressively, including against Europe. How big a threat are these legal holdings to the Trump administration’s policy agenda? And how will they impact its efforts to negotiate new bilateral trade deals, with allies and rivals alike?

In Object Lessons, Eric polished off the last of The Rehearsal’s Season 2 and was left in awe of the show’s ability to actually become a show. Nastya returned from colder climates with a warm endorsement of all things Finland: its history, its icy stare at Russia, and its impressive ability to survive both. Speaking of war, Scott dove sword-first into fantasy, reminded of Joe Abercrombie’s The First Law trilogy after the new release of “The Devils.” And Alex kept it historical with a recommendation of “The Watchdog: How the Truman Committee Battled Corruption and Helped Win World War Two,” by Steve Drummond.

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The “Hi, Robot!” Edition May 28, 2025

Show notes

This week, Scott sat down with the AI-oriented Lawfare Senior Editors Alan Rozenshtein and Kevin Frazier to talk through the week’s top AI-focused news stories, including:

“Oh Sure, Now He’s Into Free Trade.” President Trump has repealed the Biden administration’s rule setting strict limits on the diffusion of high-end AI technology, opening the door to the global transfer of the technologies powering U.S. AI development, including advanced chipsets. And we’re already seeing results of that policy in a recent deal the president signed with the UAE that would work toward the transfer of advanced semiconductors. How should AI diffusion fit into the broader global strategy surrounding the AI industry in the United States? And what approach does the Trump administration seem inclined to take?
“Paving Over the Playing Field.” House Republicans recently included a provision in a House bill that would have preempted state efforts to legislate on and regulate the AI industry for a decade. Is this sort of federal preemption a prudent step given the broader competitive dynamics with China? Or does it go too far in insulating AI companies and users from accountability for their actions, particularly where they put the public interest and safety at risk?
“Speechless.” A federal district court in Florida has issued a notable opinion of first impression in a tragic case involving a teenager who committed suicide, allegedly as a result of encouragement from an AI bot powered by the company character.ai. Among other holdings, the judge concluded that the AI’s output was not itself protected speech. Is this holding correct? And what impact will it have on the development of the AI industry?

In Object Lessons, the AI Guys went surprisingly analog. Alan recommended some good, ol’ fashioned, 19th-century imperial espionage with “The Great Game,” by Peter Hopkirk. Kevin, meanwhile, is keeping an eye on a different kind of game: the NCAA Division I Baseball Championship, in which he’s throwing up some Hook 'em Horns for Texas. And Scott is trying to “Economize” his time with The Economist’s Espresso app, a quick, curated read that fits neatly into a busy morning.

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The “Bridle and Groomed” Edition May 22, 2025

Show notes

This week, Scott sat down with a particularly baritone cast of Lawfare colleagues—co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes, Foreign Policy Editor Dana Stuster, and Senior Editor (aka Legal Correspondent) Roger Parloff—to discuss the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:

“Let’s Sheikh On It.” President Trump completed a surprisingly historic trip to the Persian Gulf last week, which began with the type of fanfare that Trump loves and only Saudi Arabia can provide and ended with the controversial gift of a new Air Force One from Qatar at the president’s reported request. In between, however, Trump reiterated his calls for an end to the Gaza conflict, became directly involved in negotiating the release of the last living American-Israeli hostage from Hamas, and announced a dramatic about-face in U.S. sanctions policy toward the new regime in Syria that caught even his closest advisers by surprise—all measures that are unlikely to be greeted warmly by the man who has traditionally been Trump’s closest regional ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. How big a pivot point was Trump’s trip? And what could its implications be for U.S. policy towards the region?
“Not Retiring from a Fight.” The Supreme Court issued an unprecedented third opinion off its emergency docket this past week in the inaptly named A.A.R.P. v. Trump, part of the ongoing litigation over the Trump administration’s controversial efforts to remove Venezuelan nationals under the Alien Enemies Act. In a 7-2 ruling, the Court held that the summary notice and opportunity to challenge that U.S. officials had provided to some individuals prior to their removal was inadequate. But as litigation through the lower courts continues, what impact is this holding likely to have on the administration’s broader immigration policies?
“Shell Shocked.” Former FBI Director James Comey found himself at the center of an unlikely controversy this week, when his decision to relay a photo of shells arranged to form the numbers “8647” that he reportedly found on the beach was interpreted as a death threat against President Trump, triggering a Secret Service interview and potentially more legal consequences to come. How seriously should this incident be taken? And what does it tell us about the Trump administration’s use of prosecutorial discretion?

In Object Lessons, as white smoke rose over the Vatican, Roger also turned his gaze heavenward—diving into Benjamin Blech and Roy Doliner’s “The Sistine Secrets” to uncover the subtexts Michelangelo left behind. Inspired by the same papal events, Scott turned to Conclave for a peek inside the process. Ben planted seeds of solidarity and resilience (or was that resistance?) across from the Russian embassy. And Dana’s incoming students at Franklin and Marshall College are about to share in his appreciation for Osamu Dazai’s “The Setting Sun.”

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The “Doodle Ordinance” Edition May 15, 2025

Show notes

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Natalie Orpett, Tyler McBrien, and Daniel Byman to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

“Borderline Behavior.” A major flare-up over the disputed region of Kashmir took place this past week, leading to a major exchange of hostilities between the nuclear powers of India and Pakistan before they agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire—one that is mostly holding, despite alleged violations on both sides. How durable a resolution does this seem likely to be? And what additional steps need to be taken to preserve peace?
“Parting Ways.” President Trump announced a major change to U.S. policies in the Red Sea this week, in the form of a ceasefire with the Yemeni armed group and de facto government Ansar Allah (also known as the Houthis), in which they would cease attacks on U.S. shipping. But the credibility of this commitment is in doubt, as are the implications of U.S. actions for shipping through the Red Sea more broadly. What should we make of this major policy shift?
“First Class Problems.” President Trump announced this week that he would be accepting the gift of a luxury jet from the government of Qatar for use as Air Force One during his presidency, which would then be transferred to his foundation shortly before he leaves office in 2029. How big a problem is this? And how can he accept this gift, given that the Constitution’s Foreign Emoluments Clause prohibits “accept[ing]...any present…of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State”?

In Object Lessons, Tyler delighted in the Financial Times’s trolling of its own “Lunch with the FT,” in which Sam Altman’s kitchen and gross misuse of olive oil becomes a bizarre metaphor for OpenAI. Natalie delighted in some hometown, Pope-town pride (and some Lou Malnati's pizza). Scott delighted in discovering both Dolcezza and their affogato with decaf espresso, a dessert for those who crave flavor and excitement but who also like sleep. And Dan, in utterly failing his wife, delighted in reaping the benefits of her Mother’s Day gift: a little contraption that sits somewhere between wellness hack and medieval torture rack.

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