Rational Security

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The “Fast and the Furry-us” Edition Feb 22, 2024

Show notes

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott got together to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:

“Is Revanchism a Dish Best Served Cold?” Russia boosters seem to be feeling bullish for the first time in a long time. This week, its forces captured the strategic town of Avdiivka from Ukrainian forces, who have been weakened by bickering among their Western allies. And imprisoned Russian dissident Alexei Navalny met with a tragic and highly suspicious end, just as Western governments came together at the Munich Security Conference. Is Russia right to be feeling its oats at this moment?
“Bibi Steps.” As Israel prepares to mount a controversial military operation against Rafah—the last refuge for many displaced civilians in Gaza—there are cracks between the government of Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and the Biden administration, who in recent weeks have shown an increased willingness to target settler violence in the West Bank with sanctions, impose some conditionality on U.S. security assistance, and turn to the U.N. Security Council for possible support for a “temporary ceasefire,” even over Israeli objections. Are these signs of a bigger divide to come? And what will the impact be on the trajectory of the Gaza conflict?
“Won’t Somebody PLEASE Think of the Children?!” The Kids Online Safety Act (or KOSA) is back in somewhat modified form, promising to introduce new regulations into how our children engage with online platforms—this time with broad bipartisan support, including from the Biden administration. But will it actually help protect children online? Or only put vulnerable communities more at risk?

For object lessons, Alan recommended the Oscar-nominated Jeffrey Wright vehicle, American Fiction. Quinta endorsed “The Book of Love,” a spooky fantasy mystery and the debut novel by celebrated short story author Kelly Link. And Scott urged mid-Atlantic listeners to take their toddlers to Baltimore’s National Aquarium and spring for the wonderful family sunrise tour. Or for nature lovers not on the East Coast, check out the new podcast one-off Birds Are Cool, featuring Goat Rodeo’s own Cara Shillenn.

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The “Licking the Cow” Edition Feb 15, 2024

Show notes

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were once again joined by co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's big national security news, including:

“Constitutional Annoyance.” Last week, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Trump v. Anderson, the case weighing whether former President Trump’s involvement in Jan. 6 should disqualify him from being able to stand as a candidate in 2024 under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. And the justices, for once, seemed almost unified in their skepticism of the idea that he should be—though there was far less agreement as to why. Where is this case headed? And what will its ultimate impact be on the 2024 election and beyond?
“Putting the Hur(t) On.” Special Counsel Robert Hur completed his investigation into President Biden’s alleged mishandling of classified documents last week and, while he opted not to bring any charges, his lengthy final report has caused a stir: not just for laying out Biden’s apparent mishandling of classified documents over an extended period of time but also for citing Biden’s advanced age and apparent memory issues as grounds for not prosecuting—observations that have reignited anxieties regarding Biden’s capacity to stand for reelection. Was Hur out of line or just doing his job in making these observations? And how will his conclusions impact events moving forward, including the prosecution of former President Trump for his own mishandling of classified documents?
“‘I Can’t Pay the Rent,’ ‘But You Must Pay the Rent!’” Former President Trump has resumed his role as enforcer over the defense spending level of NATO members, suggesting most recently that he would encourage Russia to do whatever it wants with any members who fail to meet their commitments—comments that have triggered new anxiety over how NATO may fare in a second Trump presidency. How serious are these comments? What should folks be doing in response?

For object lessons, Alan recommended the weirdness of Donald Glover's new spy remake, "Mr. & Mrs. Smith." Quinta urged listeners to check out a recent New York Timespiece on "How Mark Meadows Became the Least Trusted Man in Washington." Scott mourned the end of football season by endorsing the sportsfan comedy of Annie Agar. And Ben announced that he had completed his quest to identify the worst rhetorical question headline ever.

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The “Fecund Season” Edition Feb 08, 2024

Show notes

This week, Alan made his long-awaited return to the podcast for a (brief, so savor it) reunion with Quinta and Scott to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:

“Losing the Immunity Challenge.” Earlier this week, the D.C. Circuit rejected former President Trump’s attempt to appeal the denial of his claims of presidential immunity to criminal charges arising from Jan. 6. That issue is now primed for the Supreme Court. Will it take it up? And what will it decide?
“Ordeal or No Deal.” As Israel’s military offensive in Gaza continues, the United States is trying to facilitate a short-term hostage deal—and a longer term bargain that would incorporate Israel and Saudi Arabia into a security pact. How realistic are these proposals? And how might they impact the dynamics of the Gaza conflict?
“The Shakedown Breakdown.” Congressional Republicans who once insisted on tying Ukraine assistance to a border deal have now turned against any effort to hash out a border deal—even as House Republicans have also failed to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas or to pass their own stand-alone assistance bill for Israel. Where does this all leave aid for Ukraine? And what ramifications will this congressional dysfunction have moving forward?

For object lessons, Alan shared the thing he spent most of his time off on: his new substack, “The Rozy Outlook.” In light of this week’s oral arguments in Trump v. Anderson, Quinta recommended Mark Graber’s book on the 14th Amendment, "Punish Treason, Reward Loyalty." And Scott urged listeners to check out one of his favorite Twitter threads in recent memory, asking “who got that one Jeopardy clip”?

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The “Meatlovers” Edition Feb 01, 2024

Show notes

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes to talk over the meaty week of national security news, including:

“The Neighborhood is Getting Worse.” Three American service members were killed in a drone attack committed by Iran-backed militias in Jordan this past weekend. The Biden administration has promised a military response, but one of the groups believed to be responsible has just declared a unilateral ceasefire, seemingly at Iran’s urging. How should the United States respond? And what will the regional ramifications be?
“Don’t Seek Redress in Texas.” Texas governor Greg Abbott has opted to ignore a federal court ruling demanding that he take down barriers on the Rio Grande, on the basis of a novel (and highly dubious) legal theory asserting that the state has the exclusive constitutional authority to defend itself from invasion by migrants. How should the Biden administration respond?
“Provisional Victory?” The International Court of Justice has issued provisional measures in the genocide case against Israel over its Gaza operations, directing it to punish genocidal rhetoric and allow in humanitarian assistance but stopping short of requiring a ceasefire. Is this a vindication of Israel’s actions or a condemnation? And what will it mean for the trajectory of the conflict?

For object lessons, Quinta celebrated the chaos of the New Jersey Democratic Senate primary. Scott highlighted the latest new feature at Lawfare: transcripts of its podcasts. And Ben gave Scott a very special gift, with which he is certain to put an eye out.

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The “CesTar” Edition Jan 25, 2024

Show notes

This week, just Scott was joined for a Bizarro-world episode with guests Lawfare Senior Editor and Brookings Senior Fellow Molly Reynolds (back for a second episode in a row!) and Lawfare Legal Fellow Anna Bower! They talked over some of the week’s big stories, including:

“Two Houses, Divided Against Themselves...” The fate of key national security legislation—including the Ukraine supplemental and border legislation—is increasingly coming down to the increasingly dysfunctional dynamics within and between the two chambers of Congress. What does this tell us about how our most democratic institution is operating?
“Fani, Be Tender With My Love.” In recent weeks, Fulton Co. Prosecutor Fani Willis’s case against former President Trump and his associates has been endangered by rumors that she is engaged in a longstanding affair with subordinate prosecutor Nathan Wade—and that she extended the investigation to secure more salary for him. But is the story more smoke than fire?
“Carpe Seize ‘Em.” The Biden administration has officially come out in qualified support of seizing Russia’s frozen assets to compensate Ukraine, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is scheduled to consider authorizing legislation this week. Is this finally a route to accountability? Or do the associated risks outweigh the benefits?

For object lessons, Molly endorsed David Grann’s latest book, “The Wager.” Scott shouted out listener Paul whose birthday party he inadvertently crashed this past weekend, and urged other listeners to come say hi if they see him in the wild! And Anna urged anyone seeking a divorce in the state of Georgia to seek out the fine people at the Cobb County courthouse (who also make a lovely salad).

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The “Three-Ring Circus” Edition Jan 18, 2024

Show notes

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Senior Editor and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Molly Reynolds to talk through some big stories at the intersection of politics and national security, including:

“Over the Hill.” Congress is back in town and up to its old tricks, kicking the can of government funding down the road and still debating a funding package for Ukraine and other Biden administration priorities. As President Biden prepares to meet with congressional leaders at the White House, what are the odds of any sort of functioning legislature in this heated election year?
“Rewarmed Deterrence?” After weeks of threats, the United States and its allies finally took military action against the Houthi movement that has been threatening maritime traffic through the Red Sea in purported response to the Israeli military operation in Gaza. But will this solve the problem or only invite another cycle of escalation?
“The Frozen Corn Primary.” The first step of the 2024 election is officially over and the race is down to three candidates, with former President Trump having won the Iowa caucuses handily over rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. What does this first race tell us about the trajectory of the 2024 race—and how it intersects with Trump’s legal travails?

For object lessons, Quinta recommended Paul Murray's book “The Beesting”as a pleasantly sad-funny read. Scott gave his annual PSA about why it's worth watching the divisional round of the NFL playoffs and endorsed the amazing "Art But Make it Sports" account on Twitter and Substack. And Molly told the story of Bob, the man who found the Alaska Airlines door plug in his backyard.

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The “Courtroom Drama” Edition Jan 11, 2024

Show notes

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to discuss the week’s big national security and courtroom news, including:

“Ergo Omnes.” South Africa has brought Israel to the International Court of Justice for actions relating to its military campaign in Gaza, based on a novel legal theory that alleges Israeli violations of the Genocide Convention and asserts standing by virtue of the universal obligation to prevent genocide. What practical impact is this litigation likely to have? And what does it mean as a precedent for the international community?
“Cert(ain Doom) Petition.” The Supreme Court has officially taken up former President Trump’s appeal of a Colorado Supreme Court decision disqualifying him from the 2024 ballot there on the grounds that he is ineligible to hold office. While some have welcomed the chance to nationalize Colorado’s holding, others have warned that doing so would be a grave blow to popular democracy. How might the matter play out? And what will it mean for the 2024 election and after?
“Void Austin.” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spent several days in the hospital earlier this month—without notifying the White House, leaving what some believe was a gaping hole at the highest level of the U.S. military chain of command. How big a problem was this? What steps should be taken in response?

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The “Dry January” Edition Jan 04, 2024

Show notes

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Legal Fellow Anna Bower to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

“Hamas, No Más.” A senior Hamas official was recently killed in an attack in Beirut, in what many believe was an operation by Israel—a country whose leaders have pledged to target Hamas’s leaders wherever they might be, though it has not formally acknowledged involvement in this particular attack. But pursuing such action across a border that is already on the edge of becoming a second front in the Gaza conflict has observers nervous. How significant is this operation? Does it risk regional escalation?
“Bad for the Immune System.” Just before the holiday, the Supreme Court rejected special counsel Jack Smith’s petition for it to expedite consideration of former President Trump’s claim of immunity to criminal charges. And in the week that’s passed, briefing is already underway—including an argument by an amicus asserting that appeal shouldn’t be allowed at all. What hangs on this case? And how do the courts seem poised to address it?
“The Unprincipled Agent Problem.” The Justice Department has leveled additional charges against Sen. Robert Menendez and his wife alleging additional illegal actions in support of Qatar, including some in violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Meanwhile, several associates of former President Trump have faced similar charges for alleged work for the same government. What should we make of these powerful public officials and their associates doing work for foreign governments? And is FARA the right tool to address it?

For object lessons, Quinta continued to suck up to the estate of Roberto Bolano by endorsing his book “The Savage Detectives.” Scott spilled the beans on one of Denver’s lovely speakeasies, B&GC. And Anna urged folks to try out a Tarot Card reading for the New Year—advice Fox News appears to have taken on former President Trump’s behalf.

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The “Unboxing Day” Edition Dec 28, 2023

Show notes

This week, Quinta and Scott rang in the New Year with co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes by discussing some listener-submitted topics, including:

What does the AUKUS deal mean for the Five Eyes intelligence relationship?
How can courts enforce a gag order against former President Trump?
What would a President Nikki Haley mean for the Republican Party’s foreign policy?
Which is better, wizards or fighters?
Could anything stop former President Trump from appointing a cabinet of loyalists if elected back into the White House?
How is misinformation impacting public understandings of the Gaza conflict?
What advice would you give to folks beginning law school—and those married to them?
Could we just do away with hard printouts of classified information altogether?
How will China’s economic and demographic challenges impact its decision-making on Taiwan?
What does Prighozin’s death mean for Wagner in Africa?
What was your most (or least) favorite media of the year?

As for object lessons, they shared several sent in by listeners, including:

The video game Pentiment, a murder mystery set in Renaissance Bavaria;
The book “Palestine 1936: The Great Revolt and the Roots of Middle East Conflict” by Oren Kessler;
The “anti-reactionary conservative news site” The Dispatch, including its podcasts Advisory Opinions, The Remnant, and The Dispatch Podcast;
The book “Three Dangerous Men” by Seth Jones, examining military leaders in China, Iran, and Russia;
The book “Killers of the Flower Moon”by David Grann (but not the movie);
The podcast “The Prince”about the rise of Xi Jinping (along with The Economist’s other phenomenal podcast work);
The book “Listen Liberal: Or, What Ever Happened to the Party of the People” by Thomas Frank;
The new book “For the People, For the Country” by John Ragosta, a political biography of Patrick Henry;
And LinkedIn as the hot new social networking site!

Thank you to everyone for listening to Rational Security and supporting Lawfare throughout the year. We hope you enjoy a Happy New Year, and we will be back in your feeds in 2024!

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The “Arose Such a Clatter” Edition Dec 21, 2023

Show notes

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett and Cyber Fellow Eugenia Lostri to talk through the big national security news waking us up from our long winter’s nap this week, including:

“Rocky Mountain, Bye.” Colorado’s Supreme Court has bid goodbye to former President Donald Trump’s 2024 candidacy (for now, at least), holding in a 4-3 ruling that he is disqualified as a candidate by virtue of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Will this ruling hold? And where will it go from here?
“Houthis to Sea, so Rudely, a Wop Bop a Loo Bop a Wop Bam Boom.” Attacks by Yemen-based (and Iran-backed) Houthi rebels have led major shippers to avoid the Red Sea, dealing a serious blow to global commerce. But the United States and a coalition of allies has announced a new maritime effort—the (perhaps too) aptly named Operation Prosperity Guardian—to keep trade flowing. What will this military operation look like? And what will it mean for the global economy?
“Not So Bueno(s) Aires?” Argentina has a new president in the form of eccentric populist economist and literal dogfather Javier Milei. What does his election mean for the future of the country? We have a live dispatch from Buenos Aires to talk it over.

For object lessons, Quinta recommended Jennifer Egan’s 2022 classic “A Visit From the Goon Squad”and her latest “The Candy House.” Scott shared his preferred recipe for mulled wine and the secret ingredient: star anise. Natalie shared a wealth of new materials celebrating civil rights leader Bayard Rustin, including a new film Rustin, as well as a recent profile in The New Yorker. And Eugenia gave the people what they want with her endorsement of the Dragon Age series of games.

We’ve pushed back the recording of our annual end-of-year listener-submitted episode, so you have until December 23 to send in whatever topics and object lessons you want us to discuss! Just email them to rationalsecurity@lawfaremedia.org.

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