Stay ConnectedEno Sarris and Derek VanRiper, along with Britt Ghiroli, Trevor May, and Jed Lowrie discuss advanced stats, strategy, prospects and more. From the first move of the Hot Stove season to the final pitch of the World Series, join us for year-round baseball talk.
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Eno and DVR discuss a few takeaways from the first seven rounds of the Too Early Meatball Draft -- including the myriad of great choices from the No. 3 spot on the first round, continuing to draft starting pitchers early if other teams try to wait, a potential rebound from Trea Turner, and Elly De La Cruz's push toward top-15 status for 2024. Plus, they discuss a few differences in how to approach protecting a lead at the end of the season compared to attempts to make up ground.
Link to Too Early Meatball Draft Board: https://twitter.com/deadpullhitter/status/1694203814910275867/photo/1
Rundown
1:20 The Top of the Board from the 'Too Early Meatball Draft'
6:47 Skills Growth From Fernando Tatis Jr.
10:31 Spencer Strider v. Elite Bats at Pick 3
14:54 A Smaller Circle of Trust for Closers in Early Draft Formats?
21:21 Freddie Freeman Keeps Getting Better
25:37 Chasing Power In The Current Run Environment
26:55 Elly De La Cruz's Push Toward Round 1
32:47 Interest in Re-Drafting at All-Star Break
38:07 What's Going On with Trea Turner?
43:08 Matt McLain's Great Rookie Season
51:17 How to Protect a Lead
60:35 Chasing a Lead
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DVR, Eno and Welsh discuss the rapid development of prospects and how they are moving levels. Do we need to re--think the process for prospects as a whole, or is it case by case? The guys also take look at Paul Skenes stuff+ numbers and the ever debating fastball shape.
Rundown
Nolan Schanuel - 1:07
Is there much of a gap between levels anymore? - 3:43
Do we buy into age to level anymore? - 8:22
Hitters adjusting to Stuff+ - 9:54
Paul Skenes usage - 19:07
Skenes Stuff+ in MiLB - 21:02
Strasburg vs Skenes - 27:57
Team KPI - 31:20
Eno's Paul Skenes worry? - 35:01
A-ball Stuff+ pitchers - 36:45
Dylan Crews - 37:41
Fantasy approach to rookies moving forward - 40:30
Prospect Top-5 for 2024 fantasy - 46:12
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 56:29
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
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Eno and DVR discuss the local of pitcher whiffs and whether it matters if swings and misses are generated inside the strike zone, outside the strike zone, or if a truly elite pitcher needs to do both.
Rundown
2:36 Are High O-Swing% & Low Z-Contact% Pitchers Elite?
5:52 Getting In-Zone Whiffs with Fastballs
10:54 Bailey Ober's Surprising Placement in Both Categories
13:07 Whiffs In the Heart of the Strike Zone
17:45 High O-Swing% & High Z-Contact% = Great Command?
25:53 What is Justin Steele?
29:33 Low O-Swing%, Low Z-Contact%
42:03 Expecting A Unique Role for Kyle Harrison
44:37 Is There Anything Supporting Brady Singer's Recent Surge?
48:23 Making Sense of Luis Severino's 2023
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
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DVR and Al discuss their expectations for the two latest top prospects to be called up to make their major league debuts, Nolan Schanuel and Masyn Winn. They also identify other prospects who could be promoted soon, including Jordan Lawlar and Pete Crow-Armstrong. DVR and Al also discuss some outfielders seeing increased playing time, a healthy cohort of streamable pitchers, and the bullpen situations for the Mariners, Mets, Diamondbacks and Rays.
Rundown
0:52 The big prospect debuts: Nolan Schanuel and Masyn Winn
16:59 More big stories from this week
22:53 Other hitters to consider
32:45 Streamers and two-start pitchers
47:37 Closer corner
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
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e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss broader aspects of O-Swing% (chase rate) and whether it's a skills flaw that can draw excessive negativity -- especially with younger players. Plus, they consider whether 'The Perfect Hitter' exists, and which current player has the best case for that title.
Rundown
1:07 Do the Circumstances Matter Around Chasing
4:54 Salvador Perez & Aging Hitters
10:26 O-Swing% Leaders in 2023 (High%)
17:58 Amed Rosario
21:14 The Best $20+ Hitter Season We Haven't Talked About
26:00 Luis Robert Jr.: Elite Skills w/Chase Concerns?
31:29 Bryce Harper's Recent Increase in O-Swing%
37:46 The 2023 Version of Juan Soto
39:30 Does 'The Perfect Hitter' Exist, and Who Is That Player?
47:06 Where is Vlad Jr.'s Power?
52:45 Did 'Gather As You Go' Work for Steals?
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
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DVR, Eno and Welsh are taking a deep dive into prospect pitcher workloads, recent call-ups and more.
Rundown
Wade Meckler - 0:58
Luis Matos - 3:35
Osleivis Basabe - 11:24
Colton Cowser - 17:04
Line Drive Rate and Vaughn Grissom - 20:32
Logan Allen - 32:45
Pfaadt vs Allen - 38:55
Taj Bradley - 41:58
Reese Olson - 50:15
6-Man rotation vs Piggy backing - 56:07
Innings Cap Alarm - 1:02:54
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
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Eno and DVR discuss the disturbing allegations against Wander Franco that have prompted the Rays to place him on the restricted list. Plus, Eno shares a few takeaways from this weekend's Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball Conference in Chicago, before digging into several mailbag questions about late-season pitching strategy and the effectiveness of sweepers as the league-wide usage of the pitch increases.
Rundown
1:10 Wander Franco Placed on the Restricted List
3:57 Eno's Trip to the Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball Conference
19:24 Training Stuff+ On Previous Years & Players Making Adjustments
31:33 Checking in on the 2023 Sweeper Craze
40:04 Late-Season Starting Pitching Strategy
51:54 The Stone Age of Arm Health?
59:26 Using Defense in Fantasy?
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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DVR and Al discuss where to add recently-promoted Mariners pitching prospect Emerson Hancock and what changes to expect in the Orioles’ rotation in the coming weeks. They also consider whether the ranks of teams to stream pitchers against has changed over the course of the season, and whether Matthew Liberatore has earned our trust in favorable matchups. DVR and Al talk about the growing ranks of young players on the Athletics’ roster, and they conclude by looking for saves in the Tigers’ bullpen.
Rundown
0:46 This week’s biggest news items
7:29 Should we be streaming against the same teams we streamed against earlier in the season?
17:48 More news items from the past week
26:53 Hitters of note
43:29 Two-start pitchers and streamers
48:37 Closer corner: Should we add Beau Brieske?
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss Ronald Acuña Jr.'s massive improvement in strikeout rate as he continues to build a NL MVP resumé, and dig into other year-over-year risers and fallers in that category while trying to determine the future expectations for the biggest movers in both directions.
Rundown
0:49 Ronald Acuña Jr.'s Massive K% Improvement
7:50 The Value of a Good Two-Strike Approach
12:41 Other Hitters with Positive Gains in K%
18:37 Selling Out for Power
23:33 Giancarlo Stanton's xStats v. ROS Projections
29:32 Improved K% and Weight on Future Projections
33:47 Biggest Fallers in Strikeout Rate
38:28 Luis Robert Jr.: Making a Fair Trade-Off to Max Out Power?
46:58 Thairo Estrada's Uphill Battle to Stick in Everyday Role
49:28 Brett Baty's Demotion
55:34 xStats Remain Underwhelmed by Isaac Paredes
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
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e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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DVR, Eno and Welsh discuss how difficult pitching prospects have become to project, Curtis Mead's debut and the call-ups that could be coming soon.
Rundown
Curtis Mead - :53
Marcelo Mayer - 8:21
Masyn Winn - 14:50
Brooks Lee - 21:04
Tyler Black - 29:11
Everson Pereira - 35:18
Sept call-ups - 39:04
Prospect Pitchers tougher to value - 44:16
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
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Subscribe to The Athletic for just $2/mo for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels
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