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Bad Speech Mar 05, 2025

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Just six weeks into his presidency, Donald Trump has dragged the country to the brink of recession. He’s become unpopular, lost the public’s trust to handle the economy, and hollowed out the government in risky ways. So in his first speech to Congress, Trump: blamed all of it on Joe Biden, subjected Democrats to a torrent of abuse, lied about Social Security (among many other things), and redoubled his commitment to tariffs, even if they cause “disturbance.”

In this free post-address episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Was this speech worse (that is, more dishonest, defamatory, etc.) than his first-term State of the Union addresses?

* Does his dishonest and degrading style simply make him less popular, or is there a method to it?

* What’s the endgame of seeding a bunch of lies about Social Security—a program he’s promised never to cut, and doesn’t have the votes to cut anyhow?

* Would Democrats have served themselves better by boycotting the speech or having another party-wide plan to convey their contempt for and total lack of confidence in Trump?

Plus: Elon Musk, Elissa Slotkin. William McKinley

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Smoking Polls Feb 26, 2025

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Even in the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, most Americans thought Donald Trump was a good steward of the economy. This misplaced faith has been key to his political durability. But after just one month of indiscriminately firing federal workers, illegally reneging on federal spending commitments, and making erratic threats to tariff the bejesus out of our trading partners, his economic approval has fallen under water. So what’s going on?

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Are people really just annoyed that Trump has ignored the price of eggs and other staple goods?

* Is it that by mistreating people and crippling important services, he’s created an unflattering news environment that has soured people on him generally?

* Or might he have actually tipped the economy into recession at lightning speed?

Then, behind the paywall, why does the explanation matter? Did Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries happen to land on exactly the right strategy to oppose Trump in his second term? If people are actually mad about the cruelty and lawlessness, does it suggest Democrats should shift their focus from egg trolling to forcing Trump back into regular order?And to that end, are Democrats prepared to force a confrontation over the rule of law as the deadline to fund the government approaches?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Brian on why losing popularity so quickly puts a big dent in Trump’s plan to become an autocrat.

* Matt on how foreign leaders on the receiving end of Trump’s tariff’s threats can exploit this weakness by calling his bluff.

* The perils of the Trump-GOP plan to cut Medicaid.

Early Byrd Special Feb 19, 2025

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Explaining the GOP’s rapid slide into authoritarianism is complicated, but you can’t tell the story if you don’t understand that Republicans have been unwilling to abandon huge, unpopular tax cuts for the rich as an organizing principle. In their view of things, if popular majorities don’t support regressive tax cuts, then democracy has to go. So it’s no surprise that last week House Republicans published its blueprint for special legislation that would cut taxes by many trillions of dollars, and partially make up the cost through enormous cuts to Medicaid.

In this episode, Matt and Brian (who used the wrong mic like an asshole) discuss:

* Why Democrats are so eager for Republicans to shift emphasis from attacking the civil service and the rule of law to advancing huge tax cuts for the rich.

* Can Republicans, with their small Senate majority and tiny House majority, actually pass anything significant

* Have they convinced themselves that there’s never a big political downside to cutting rich people’s taxes?

Then, behind the paywall, why that assumption is more likely than usual to blow up in their face. How many people would lose their health insurance if Republicans cut $2 trillion from Medicaid? How dramatically would trillions of dollars in (mostly deficit-financed tax cuts increase inflation? If Republicans have doomed themselves no matter what (either they cause economic harm, or they abandon their legislative agenda), why don’t Democrats train more of their focus on the unfolding constitutional crisis, before Republicans succeed at wiping out constitutional government.

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Matt on the disconnect between Donald Trump’s aggressive power-grabbing and his party’s legislative incompetence.

* Real-world consequences of the Trump-Musk assault on the work force are really bad.

* The famous George H.W. Bush-Bill Clinton exchange on the real world impact of federal debt.

* We’re rationing eggs now.

Contretemps of Court Feb 12, 2025

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Donald Trump and Elon Musk are now on the receiving end of multiple court orders requiring them to rein in their constitutional crime spree: resume impounded payments, destroy improperly downloaded government data, restore regular government communications. Their response, as of this recording, has been to see how contemptuous they can be of the orders, and musing openly about outright defiance.

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* What, specifically, precipitated this legitimation crisis?

* If the Trump administration’s announces it will disregard district court orders, is it time to take to the streets?

* Is Kendrick Lamar likelier to shatter the MAGA coalition than professional Democrats?

Then, behind the paywall, how well, if at all, are Democrats responding to the prospect of a completely lawless presidency? Should they be more plainspoken about how they will use their power to restore the rule of law? If Trump will ignore district court orders enjoining his efforts to impound money, will he also ignore them if he tries to spend money absent a congressional appropriation?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Matt on why there are many, many better forms of resistance than doomscrolling.

* Brian argues a crisis like this is the right time for Democrats to sideline over-cautious, elections-oriented consultants, and listen to people who know how to put down coup attempts.

* Cass Sunstein on the high price of ignoring the social cost of carbon. (Trust us, it’s relevant.)

Department of Podcast Efficiency Feb 05, 2025

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Prior to the election, Elon Musk warned non-billionaire Americans to brace for “temporary hardship” (approving) in the event of a second Donald Trump presidency. Over the weekend, after insisting he’d impose 25 percent tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imports, Trump also acknowledged (perhaps for the first time) that his economic policies will cause “pain.” By Monday, he’d backed down from the tariffs, but Musk is still on a rampage through the federal bureaucracy and Trump continues his efforts to purge the Justice Department and remake the government dictatorially.

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Why did Trump (again) chicken out of his tariff threats?

* Does it tell us anything meaningful about his real views, his political calculations, or what he may do in the future?

* Why didn’t Trump exempt China, and what does that mean for the U.S. economy (and for Musk, who conducts tons of business in China)?

Then, behind the paywall, a through line connecting Trump’s economic policy bluster with his very real effort to mount an authoritarian takeover. What are Trump, Musk, and his technogoons doing behind the scenes at the Treasury Department? Why are they also fixated on USAID? And how should Democrats, including nervous moderates, be prepared to respond?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Brian’s 18 thoughts on the omnicrisis, what Trump thinks he’s doing, and how to sort his volleys and outrages to focus on what matters most.

* Matt makes the case that beleaguered civil servants shouldn’t quit their jobs.

* What Musk’s techdork mafia appears to be doing at the Treasury Department.

* Did Russians sneak a bug into the Oval Office during Trump’s first presidency?

Welcome to Impound Town Jan 29, 2025

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In just the past week, Donald Trump has illegally fired over a dozen federal anti-corruption watchdogs, installed Fox News weekend host Pete Hegseth as secretary of defense, and then claimed the power to arbitrarily withhold congressional appropriation—an unconstitutional maneuver called “impoundment.”

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* What are inspectors general, and why does Trump want to fire them?

* How does his desire to avoid waste, fraud, and abuse oversight interact with his attempt to impound federal grant, loan, and aid spending?

* What Democrats can do to try to force Trump and the GOP back into compliance with the law before it’s too late.

Then, behind the paywall, are these just indiscriminate power grabs, or is there a method here? Why did Elon Musk, the country’s biggest defense contractor and political donor, take a special interest in getting a lightweight like Pete Hegseth confirmed as defense secretary, at a department that suddenly has no watchdog? Did the fact that Trump had limited success abusing and corrupting the civil service in his first term trick people into letting their guard down?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Matt on congressional Republicans’ war against the poor.

* Brian on how Democrats can use their leverage to insist on compliance with the law and constitution.

* Days after saluting just exactly like a Nazi would, Elon Musk tells German neo-Nazi party that Germans should get over their holocaust guilt.

All Birthrights Reserved Jan 22, 2025

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.politix.fm

It’s the first Politix podcast of Donald Trump’s second presidency, and it began more or less how we expected: with a lot of bluster and bullshit, but also real demonstrations of lawlessness. Thanks John Roberts?

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Trump’s immigration executive orders, with a special focus on his effort to unilaterally suspend the Constitution’s birthright citizenship guarantee;

* Will Trump follow the law if and when this and other orders are enjoined by federal judges?

* Why does birthright citizenship make the United States a better country?

Then, behind the paywall, where does Trump’s appetite for lawlessness leave things going forward? Will there be any consequence for his day-one decision to pardon over 1,500 January 6 insurrectionists, even exceptionally violent ones? Will Democrats come to the defense of any affected immigrants, or will they remain divided (as they were through the GOP push to pass the Laken Riley Act)? And why did Biden fritter away the lame duck period instead of doing more to protect the country?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Brian argues House Democrats should move to impeach Donald Trump over the January 6 pardons, even knowing Republicans will rally to protect him.

* Matt on the basic fact that because Trump is so self-serving and dishonest, nobody actually knows what he’s going to do. thinks Democrats can just follow Joe Manchin’s lead.

* Greg Sargent on Trump’s executive order to declare illegal crossings an “invasion” and thus justify the deployment of troops to the southwestern border.

Bye Bye Biden Jan 15, 2025

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It’s the final Politix podcast of Joe Biden’s presidency! Soon Donald Trump will be inaugurated president for a second, non-consecutive term. Inflation and crime and border crossings will fall, wages will rise, and America will be great again. Except…all those things already happened.

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Why did the Biden presidency end in political failure, given the rosy macro picture?

* What connectivity is there between the Biden administration’s conception of itself—and its ensuing approach to policy—and its unpopularity?

* Would a younger president (even a younger version of Biden) operating under otherwise identical material circumstances have been able to spin the outputs of this administration into political gold?

Then, behind the paywall, what if anything have Democrats taken from Biden’s struggles, and are they applying those lessons to their early opposition? Why are they poised to help Republicans pass the Laken Riley Act? Do they really think holding Trump to bad-faith campaign promises will hurt him when, e.g., the cost of eggs doesn’t go down? Or is it likelier that, with Trump claiming credit for Biden’s economy, voters will stop citing the cost of living as their top political concern?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Brian can’t pronounce Baudrillard, but he did write about how Democrats should rethink the idea that delivering good macroeconomic conditions is the key to winning elections, and rethink their political strategies from scratch.

* Matt thinks Democrats can just follow Joe Manchin’s lead.

* Dylan Matthews argues that Biden did himself in by refusing to make hard-nosed decisions.

Don, Til Musk Jan 08, 2025

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Multiple developments over the holiday break raise real questions about who will call the shots in Donald Trump’s still-forming administration. Elon Musk seemed to commandeer aspects of legislative strategy, immigration, and foreign policy. Republicans in Congress seemed to heed Musk over Trump, while leaving Trump wide berth to enrich himself and crack down on his enemies.

In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* How Musk, an unelected immigrant oligarch, built so much sway over the GOP, and why he might be interested in Trump administration policy outside of DOGE and government contracts.

* Is Musk too rich and influential for Republicans too control, or is Trump simply too diminished to head the government and his party simultaneously?

* Whether a MAGA coalition comprising tech billionaires (who support certain categories of immigration) and grassroots nativists (who do not) can long endure.

Then, behind the paywall, what will this mean when it’s time for Republicans to fund the government, increase the debt limit, or enact substantive. Will Republicans, with a historically tiny House margin, be able to pass any meaningful legislation at all? Do they feel they have leeway over the details of policy, so long as they let Trump’s corruption run rampant? What are the tail risks of a corrupt executive branch with no clear leader, checked only by a paralyzed Congress?

All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Brian on Trump, tech weirdos, and the GOP’s seemingly successful quest for cultural dominance.

* Matt on the menace of Trump’s unapologetic political renaissance.

* Norm Ornstein on the mess Trump is preparing to dump on Mike Johnson and the congressional GOP.

Politix Christmas Mailbag Dec 24, 2024

Show notes

The mailbag episode is here! Thanks to all who sent questions, and apologies to those who didn’t get answers. We hoped to get through more, but brevity isn’t our strong suit and we ran out of time. But the answers we DID deliver are choice, in our opinion.

We touch on:

* Ezra Klein’s terribly wrong ideas about the political impact of blue-state and blue-city misgovernance;

* What Donald Trump’s attempt at an unconstitutional third term will look like IF he tries;

* How Biden could go out with a bang, even without relying on presidential immunity (but probably won’t);

* Matt’s candid thoughts about Pod Save America (as Brian demurs).

This episode is free to all, a small token of gratitude to all of our subscribers this holiday season for making this podcast possible. We’ll do more of these in the coming year, and if you want your questions answered (or at least included in a lengthy Google document that we might not get through in the allotted time) you know what to do:

Further reading:

* Brian offers a new, important reason people should reset their relationships with social media.

* Michelle Goldberg on this great capitulation.

* Greg Sargent discusses the challenges of rebuilding in this climate with Ben and other DNC candidates, Ken Martin, and Martin O’Malley.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politix.fm/subscribe