Politix

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Donald Trump Banned Abortion Apr 03, 2024

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.politix.fm

This week on Politix, Brian returns from a long weekend in real America (western Mexico) with some fresh insight on how Trump-stalgia works. He and Matt discuss:

* Why fewer people disapprove of Trump lately and why more people seemingly think his sharpest critics have overstated their case;

* How lag effects (the persistence of the pandemic and the overturning of Roe after Trump’s term ended) has insulated him from accountability;

* Whether Trump’s unique responsibility for the loss of abortion rights and his status as a Florida resident mean this issue will eventually catch up with him.

Then, we offer paid subscribers an in-depth look at how public opinion on abortion has changed in the past two years, even if it hasn’t (yet) dragged Trump down. We examine the roles paid and free media might play in making Trump synonymous with Dobbs, and think through ways both party leaders and activists could draw more public attention to abortion rights per se and Trump’s role in abolishing them. Do Democrats have a problem generating free media in general? And finally, a raging debate over which kinds of beach-side resorts are best for aging but young-at-heart millennials. It was a clarifying discussion across the board, and if you’re interested in fleshing all that out we hope you’ll upgrade to paid, and enjoy the whole episode!

Further reading:

* Matt on the new politics of abortion rights.

* Brian on the broader political implications of changing abortion opinion—what if public-opinion polling on high-salience issues just isn’t that useful?

* How long can Trump hide from weighing in on the DeSantis abortion ban in his home state, and on whether Florida voters should pass a referendum guaranteeing abortion access?

Trash Tok Mar 27, 2024

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.politix.fm

This week on Politix, Julian Sanchez joins Matt and Brian to discuss:

* Donald Trump’s uncanny ability to evade justice;

* Why a panel of New York appeals court judges let him mostly off the hook by staving off the seizure of his assets in his civil-fraud case;

* What liberals and Democrats can do to make these civil verdicts a greater political liability for him.

Then, paid subscribers get a lengthier debate over the merits of banning TikTok in the U.S. Are the privacy or propaganda concerns articulated by U.S. lawmakers valid? Is it hard-nosed realpolitik to engage in tit-for-tat social-media bans with China, or a naive own goal that will tarnish the example America’s open society sets for the world? Should we just be happy to see any major social media company lose its hold on American users, no matter the method? We hashed all of that out, and if you’d like to hear where we landed, upgrade to paid, and enjoy the whole episode!

Further reading:

* Julian’s forthcoming Substack, Non-Content!

* Matt’s broad case against TikTok.

* Brian on the liberal and right-wing psychologies driving Trump-impunity politics.

Blood Bath & Beyond Mar 20, 2024

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.politix.fm

This week on Politix, Matt and Brian discuss:

* Donald Trump’s warning of “a bloodbath for the whole country” if he loses;

* The relative political value of exploiting Trump’s authoritarian appeals vs. his agenda of tax breaks for rich people and big entitlement cuts;

* The potential risk of attacking Trump in scattershot fashion, rather than homing in on his biggest vulnerabilities

Then, paid subscribers get a lengthier discussion of two potential pitfalls of resistance politics: First, does freaking out over Trump’s threats of violence come at a cost if it’s done in a way that conveys fear and weakness? Second, do liberals undermine their core values of reason and nuance by reading Trump’s provocations in the most menacing possible light? Is there any good way to make Trump accountable for his words without getting suckered into pedantic textual debates about whether his words were literal or figurative. If you’d like to hear us take a stab at those questions, upgrade to paid, and enjoy the whole episode!

Further reading:

* Matt admits it: The orange man is bad!

* Brian and AOC discuss the disconnect between Democrats’ democracy appeals and their lackluster approach to accountability politics.

* Trump runs to the safety of Breitbartto walk back his flirtation with Social Security and Medicare.

Trump Sells Out Mar 13, 2024

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.politix.fm

This week on Politix, Matt and Brian discuss:

* The biggest political takeaways from Joe Biden’s State of the Union address;

* Whether the press corps will do any soul searching after getting bamboozled by Republican special counsel Robert Hur;

* Can Politix convince Merrick Garland to resign?

Then, paid subscribers get a deep analysis of Trump’s apparent (and abrupt) decision to place Social Security and Medicare on the chopping block, after years of insisting he’d never cut them. What precipitated the reversal? Does it have anything to do with his simultaneous reversals on the right-wing Bud Light boycott and the fate of TikTok, the Chinese-owned social-media company? Did he sell his position on entitlements to right-wing billionaires because he’s desperate for campaign and legal-expense money? And what can Democrats do to drive. If you’re interested in the answers to these questions, upgrade to paid, and enjoy the whole episode!

Further reading:

* Brian on how Trump’s Social Security/Medicare flip flop brings the nexus between his policy agenda and personal corruption into focus.

* Matt on how Trump’s position on TikTok was correct, until he abandoned it corruptly.

* What does Project 2025 have to say about Medicare?

Were You REALLY Better Off Four Years Ago? Mar 06, 2024

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.politix.fm

This week on Politix, Matt and Brian discuss:

* How Donald Trump wriggled away from his disastrous pandemic response and the horribleness of 2020;

* Whether Joe Biden’s pandemic response made voters more inclined to forgive Trump;

* The extent to which the switcheroo was the product of rational thinking vs. the political strategies of the two parties.

Then, paid subscribers get a prospective look at how Democrats persuade voters that their initial instinct to vote Trump out was correct. Can they raise the salience of the pandemic annus horribillis again after almost everyone has moved on? Will they ask the canonical question: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Would they forgive Biden for a year of inflation if they understood it as part of the long, difficult process of fixing an economy Trump broke—and will break again? Upgrade to find out!

Further reading:

* The final report of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis.

* Brian on the political perils of always looking forward, not backward.

* Evan Osnos on Biden’s defiant confidence in the face of losing poll numbers.

What Democrats Can Learn From #NeverTrump Feb 28, 2024

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.politix.fm

In this special crossover episode, The Bulwark's Tim Miller joins Matt and Brian to answer burning questions like:

* Why have most Never Trumpers have embraced liberalism and the Democratic Party to some degree or another, rather than remain conservative critics within the GOP?

* If Republicans sincerely believe life begins at fertilization, why are they pretending to be the saviors of IVF?

* How (and where) do Republican operatives learn to be remorselessly unconcerned with norms, fairness, and consistency?

* Do Republicans have a good laugh when Democrats pass up opportunities to hold Donald Trump accountable, knowing how they’d react if the shoe were on the other foot?

* What would it look like from the inside if Republicans discovered Joe Biden committed half a billion dollars in fraud, or teamed up with foreign intelligence agents to frame Donald Trump?

If you’re enjoying the conversation and hit that paywall, we hope you’ll consider upgrading to hear the rest, along with all our past episodes and episodes to come.

We also offered Tim the opportunity to quiz Matt and Brian about Democrats, the tensions and dysfunctions that complicate big-tent liberalism, and what they would change about Democratic politics to improve Joe Biden’s chances in November, if they could only pick one thing. You can listen to that half of the crossover on The Bulwark podcast.

Who Will Bail Out Donald Trump? Feb 21, 2024

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.politix.fm

This week on Politix, Matt and Brian discuss:

* The nearly half-billion dollar judgment Trump owes New York for engaging in fraudulent business practices;

* Why MAGA spin that this his fraudulent practices were “victimless” is both bullshit, and irrelevant;

* Similarities and differences between this scam and Trump’s other fraudulent schemes.

Then, paid subscribers get a bigger picture look at where things go from here, and the significance for both the 2024 campaign and even national security. Are Trump’s latest entreaties to Vladimir Putin—on NATO, Ukraine, and the murder of Alexei Navalny—motivated by his renewed desperation for money? And will Democrats in Congress exploit this real risk of compromise the way Republicans exploited falsified allegations against Joe Biden? Will this be a watershed moment, or a(nother) missed political opportunity? Upgrade to find out!

Further reading:

* Brian encourages Senate Democrats, mainstream news reporters, law-enforcement officials, and Trump resisters to keep a close eye on whether Trump comes up with the money, and chase down the source(s).

* Eight years ago, Matt broke down how Trump avoided financial ruin after failing in Atlantic City by ripping off shareholders.

* Thirteen years ago Luis Zingales wrote, “Donald Trump’s announcement that he will not run in the Republican presidential primaries after all is great news for the Republican Party and for the country. The only thing more frightening than Trump’s running for president would be Trump’s getting elected president. From a party perspective, while losing an election is bad, winning one with the wrong candidate for the party and for the country is worse.”

* David Brooks offers a “keep it simple, stupid” explanation of why Trump’s fraud was fraud, and why fraud is bad.

Joe Biden Is Old Feb 14, 2024

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This week on Politix, Matt and Brian discuss:

* The Robert Hur report, and the fire storm the special counsel ignited with his rule-breaking, partisan attack on Biden;

* How Biden could in theory alleviate concerns that he’s too old to be both president and candidate simultaneously—and why his advisers haven’t really tried;

* The extent to which Biden’s age really is limiting his ability to throw his weight around in the partisan mosh pit, even if it isn’t limiting his ability to govern at all;

* Whether polls on this question, and on the question of how well alternate candidates would fare, are useful at all;

* The Kamala Harris factor—is her consistently weak polling against Trump freezing a dysfunctional situation in place?

* How Biden’s politics of restoring norms and magnanimity has compounded (and in the case of the Hur appointment, created) his old-man woes.

Since this is a news-pegged episode about a consequential and unexpected development in the campaign, we’ve made it free to all subscribers.

Further reading:

* Matt says seeing more of Joe Biden would make his totally ordinary memory flubs seem unremarkable, and would remind Americans of his moderate instincts, but his advisers are worried that his moderate positions will make party activists angry.

* Brian demands candor from the party and the Biden campaign about why they think things are going so much worse than they anticipated when they put their strategy in motion.

* He also argues that most fears about what would happen if Biden stepped aside in favor of an alternate are misplaced.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politix.fm/subscribe

Will The Republican Border Security Bait-And-Switch Backfire? Feb 07, 2024

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.politix.fm

This week on Politix, Matt and Brian discuss:

* How we reached the point where Republicans wrung a bunch of immigration-policy concessions out of Democrats, then reneged on their own deal.

* What was actually in the deal and why?

* Would the provisions of the bill have actually succeeded at the nominal goal of creating more order and better asylum screening at the border?

Then, paid subscribers hear a more open ended conversation and debate over whether the concessions Democrats offered were wise politically and substantively, whether they needed to engage this issue on Republican terms in the first place, and whether the GOP’s turn to sabotage will allow Democrats to seize and hold the center on immigration in a way that lastingly hurts Donald Trump. Plus, Matt gratuitously slags Tracy Chapman, forcing Brian to take a brave stand on behalf of Good Music.

Further reading:

* Matt argues that bureaucratic obstacles to implementing a working border policy, like ineffective polygraph screening for would-be agents, should be done away with—and would make implementing a border deal before the election very hard.

* Brian on how Biden can win the ensuing infowars over GOP border sabotage, but only if he browbeats mainstream news into covering Trump and the GOP’s dirty dealing forthrightly.

* The Democrats should fully embrace both halves of the old border-security-for-Republicans/legalization-for-Democrats consensus.

Can The Resistance Reassemble BEFORE The Election Jan 31, 2024

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.politix.fm

This week on Politix, Matt and Brian discuss:

* The $83.3 million a New York jury ordered Donald Trump to pay E. Jean Carroll for sexually assaulting then serially defaming her.

* The related GOP freakout that America’s most influential person (Taylor Swift) might not like Republicans very much!

* Why Democratic Party leaders seem uninterested in pressing their “not led by a rapist” advantage.

They also put a pin in the issue of immigration, and the simmering nullification crisis Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) is stoking along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Then, paid subscribers hear a conversation with Leah Greenberg, cofounder of Indivisible, about whether it’s important to mobilize street protests against Donald Trump before the election (like the recent marches against the German far right), and the extent to which policy activism and policymaking contribute to the demobilization of the resistance.

Further reading:

* Dara Lind on how the Senate border security bill won’t actually fix the problem Republicans claim to want to fix.

* Brian on how the judgment in the Carroll case explains Trump’s desperation to run Nikki Haley out of the GOP primary instead of letting her flame out.

* Jonathan Chait on whether the anti-Trump coalition has irretrievably splintered.