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Democratic Early Voting Firewalls Too Small or Missing? Seven Days To Go! (with Taylor Lorenz, Gabe Fleisher and Mark Sutton) Oct 30, 2024

Show notes

If you would like to get 150 episodes of Politics Politics Politics for $99 please take advantage of our annual deal that ends on Halloween!

By the time you hear this episode, we will have less than seven days until Election Day.

Here are the metrics I am looking at…

Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin: Trump 54% to win

Jon Ralston’s Nevada Early Voting Blog: GOP has 38,000 ballot advantage

VoteHub Early Voting Counter

And here is the math comparing the final tallies in Nevada and Arizona…

Electoral History of Nevada:

Biden +2.5

Clinton +2.5

Obama +6.5

Obama +12.5

Electoral History of Arizona:

Biden + Less than .5

Trump + 3.5

Romney +9

McCain +8.5

How much more Democratic is Nevada than Arizona?

2008: 21

2012: 15.5

2016: 6

2020: 2

On this episode of the show we welcome Taylor Lorenz for the first time. We discuss independent media, the blogging revolution of the 2000s and an unfortunate tweet. Also, Wake Up To Politics’ Gabe Fleisher helps us look at the final hours of this contest. And finally, Mark Sutton helps us break down the gender gap.

Let’s go!

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Torturing Ourselves with Early Voting Numbers! Kamala's Best Chance. Political Road Trip. (with Bill Scher and Andrew Heaton) Oct 25, 2024

Show notes

Don’t take early numbers too seriously. It’s the first chapter of a book. You might think you know where it goes, but each story is different. Early votes are not linear, they are often jumbled by different start times or counting processes.

So don’t take them seriously.

Okay? Did you read that? Are you not going to take them seriously?

Fine. Let’s torture ourselves with early voting data.

* VoteHub

* Jon Ralston Early Voting Blog

* UMichVoter

Also…

The great Bill Scher (Washington Monthly) joins to discuss where Kamala Harris is and how she wins the election. Andrew Heaton tells us of all the political signage he’s seen during his road trip from Texas to Washington DC.

Chapters

2:56 Early Vote

13:21 Bill Scher

1:00:13 UPDATE (Obama and Kamala, $28 million Polymarket Bet, Trump Legal Strategy)

1:09:50 Andrew Heaton

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Senate Dems Running Behind Trump To Save Seats? Kamala Wants MORE Cheney? (with Kirk Bado and Howard Mortman) Oct 23, 2024

Show notes

If you are looking for good President Harris omens, you might want to check back later.

* Every betting market has now firmly tilted Trump

* Polling averages continue to show Harris wilting in the Blue Wall states

* Silver Bulletin, 538 and The Economist prediction models now all point to Trump

* The Oracle of Nevada Jon Ralston brings positively bleak news about the early vote in the Silver State for Democrats

Take all of those for what you will. But remember this, the only reason why President Biden isn’t on this ticket is because down ballot candidates made noise that he was dragging them down.

Well take a look at an ad Bob Casey is running. The Pennsylvania Senator and staunch Biden ally who is in a close race with Republican Dave McCormick is running an ad bragging about bucking the current White House and working with Donald Trump.

Crunch all the numbers you want, nerds.

I will always pay attention when a politician starts running for their own lives in defiance of the party.

On this episode

* Kirk Bado (National Journal’s Hotline) discusses the Kamala Harris fixation on Liz Cheney and if they are even looking for Never Trumpers in the right places.

* Howard Mortman (C-SPAN) dives deep into late campaign trivia and the traditions of the Al Smith dinner.

* Trump will tape Joe Rogan this Friday.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

FIXED: Super PAC Plays Both Sides. Allred vs. Cruz. Narrative Draft. You Read Polls Wrong. (with Jason Whitely, Evan Scrimshaw, Ryan Jakubowski and Carl Allen) Oct 18, 2024

Show notes

PATCH NOTES:

* FIXED audio on Jason Whitely Interview

* REMOVED f-bomb

Apologies for the last export…

—

A listener sent me a curious story: There is a Super PAC running ads online that paint Kamala Harris as a staunch defender of Israel AND a weak capitulator inflaming anti-semitism by pandering to Palestinians.

Don’t believe me? Here are the ads.

Why is the Future Coalition PAC countering their own message? They aren’t. They’re attempting to inflame both sides of the conflict against Kamala Harris in two swing states.

The Pro-Israel ads are not running in ZIP codes with high Jewish populations, they’re running in Dearborn, Michigan the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the United States. Meanwhile, the Palestinian “Pandering” ads are running in the suburbs of Pennsylvania where the majority of that crucial state’s jewish population lives.

The goal of both is to turn those natural Democratic voters against the nominee.

That’s only first 10 minutes of our two-hour episode!

* We are joined by Jason Whitely the senior political reporter for WFAA in Dallas. This week he moderated the debate between Colin Allred and Ted Cruz. We talk to him about his moderating philosophy and his thoughts on Texas politics.

* Evan Scrimshaw

and

Ryan Jakubowski

join the show to do a Narrative Draft. What are the topics we believe will dominate the conversation after the election.

* Carl Allen

explains to us why we’ve been reading polls the wrong way our entire lives and how to change it.

All that and snap reactions to the death of Sinwar in Gaza.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Super PAC Plays Both Sides. Allred vs. Cruz. Narrative Draft. You Read Polls Wrong. (with Jason Whitely, Evan Scrimshaw, Ryan Jakubowski and Carl Allen) Oct 18, 2024

Show notes

Don’t believe me? Here are the ads.

Why is the Future Coalition PAC countering their own message? They aren’t. They’re attempting to inflame both sides of the conflict against Kamala Harris in two swing states.

The goal of both is to turn those natural Democratic voters against the nominee.

That’s only first 10 minutes of our two-hour episode!

* Evan Scrimshaw and Ryan Jakubowski join the show to do a Narrative Draft. What are the topics we believe will dominate the conversation after the election.

* Carl Allen explains to us why we’ve been reading polls the wrong way our entire lives and how to change it.

All that and snap reactions to the death of Sinwar in Gaza.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Is the Harris Campaign in a Vibe Emergency? The Jewish Vote. The Economy Puzzle. (with Karol Markowicz and JD Durkin) Oct 16, 2024

Show notes

The campaign known for booming vibes has hit a recession.

None of Kamala Harris’ polls in the Rustbelt have increased in October. Some averages are verging on the dreaded 47% line.

That's bad news. Donald Trump is a hard capped 48 % candidate, but you can count on that 48% showing up.

What’s more? Other indicators are pointing the wrong direction for Coconut Hive.

Nate Silver on his Silver Bulletin Substack has the race back to a 50% tossup.

Think what you will about the prediction markets, but Polymarket money is beginning to pile on a Trump victory.

Harris ‘24 knows they need a vibe shift and so they will take a risk! Harris will do an interview with Fox News today. This decision is being hailed as bold and it is.

But it’s also a massive risk.

Kamala has never faced an adversarial interview in her career. Not in California, not in DC, not in her 2019 campaign. This is a big stage to experiment on.

Will it pay off?

We discuss that and so much more…

Karol’s Substack on the Jewish vote in 2024.

JD Durkin LIVE FROM THE NYSE FLOOR on the economy.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Dual Political Realities in 2024 (with Matt Shapiro) Oct 11, 2024

Show notes

COMING FROM PATREON? MAKE SURE YOU MOVE YOUR SUPPORT OVER!

Justin Robert Young and polimath (Matt Shapiro) explore the duality of truth in politics, anxiety within the Democratic Party regarding Kamala Harris's campaign and the implications of Biden's debate performance. The conversation delves into the shifting narratives in political discourse, the challenges facing Harris, and the role of FEMA in disaster response. They also touch on voter sentiment, election predictions, coalition shifts, and the future of AI in politics.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

The Four Scenarios That End 2024. Will Pence Tell His REAL J6 Story? (with Tom LoBianco and Evan Scrimshaw) Oct 09, 2024

Show notes

Tom LoBianco wants to tell the FULL story of January 6th from Mike Pence. Justin unveils the four potential scenarios for the 2024 election outcome with Evan Scrimshaw.

Chapters

00:00 The Pence Quest Begins

39:40 Introduction and Election Scenarios

46:26 Positive Republican Outcomes

50:06 Democratic Civil War

55:19 Democratic Optimism

01:01:53 The Case for a Democratic Sweep

01:35:54 The Texas Political Landscape

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

GOP Popular Vote Win Possible? Harris Has Major Problems In Michigan. (featuring Michael Cohen and Claire Meynial) Oct 04, 2024

Show notes

BIG EPISODE TO BEGIN OCTOBER!

Justin gets into the current polling trends with Michael Cohen, separating fact and fiction in Springfield, Ohio and the unusual partnership between Kamala Harris and Liz Cheney.

Claire Meynial makes her Px3 debut to talk about the flashing warning signs for Harris in Dearborn, Michigan.

CHAPTERS

2:53 Michael Cohen

33:01 VP Debate Thoughts

53:57 The Widening War in Middle East

1:10:29 Liz Cheney campaigning with Kamala Harris

1:20:31 The Truth In Springfield, Ohio

1:39:57 Will Middle East Cost Harris Michigan?

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

The Very Congenial Vice Presidential Debate Recap (with Andrew Heaton) Oct 02, 2024

Show notes

Justin Robert Young and Andrew Heaton discuss the vice presidential debate, analyzing a sparkling JD Vance and slightly wobbly Tim Walz.

00:39 Vance Won

09:53 Joe Biden Erasure

12:35 Moderation and Fact-Checking in Debates

18:41 The Lack of Personal Attacks

21:34 Trade Policies and Economic Perspectives

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

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