POLITICO Playbook Daily Briefing - POLITICO

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Aug. 18, 2021: Biden’s approval rating drops below 50 Aug 18, 2021

Show notes

President Joe Biden's average approval rating is below 50% for the first time this year. 538: 49.8% … RCP: 49.4%

The dip has been driven by a slow erosion among independents that seems tied to the Delta surge and predates the problems in Afghanistan.

It also may be inevitable. FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley: “We don’t know the range in which Biden’s approval will ultimately settle, but if the past two presidents are any indication, it’ll be a narrow one: Donald Trump’s approval mostly hovered between 40 and 45 percent during his presidency, while Barack Obama’s approval tended to fall between 45 and 50 percent.”

And, in the coming days we’re going to be picking out the most consequential proposals in the infrastructure plan and digging into the politics of these policies. But first we want to hear from you. What policies do you most want to see unpacked? What are the political crosscurrents that you’re witnessing from your perch at, say, a House committee, Cabinet agency or outside interest group? What policies are the most vulnerable and unlikely to survive the sausage-making process? What are the hidden land mines in Build Back Better?

Send us your scoops, insights, requests and tips at playbook@politico.com. We’ll keep it all confidential, and it will help us cover this unprecedented period of legislating in Washington.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio.
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

Aug. 17, 2021: Biden’s big bet on Afghanistan Aug 17, 2021

Show notes

Before President Joe Biden took the podium to address the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan on Monday, senior Obama White House advisor David Axelrod was on CNN giving him some free advice: “You cannot defend the execution here. … This has been a disaster,” he said. “He needs to own that failure. … He’s the commander in chief.”

As Axelrod said after, Biden did anything but. Even as he asserted that “the buck stops with me,” Biden pointed fingers at everyone but himself: Donald Trump tied his hands with his deal with the Taliban, the Afghan army wasn’t willing to fight, and some civilians didn’t initially want to leave.

Most of all, he defended the pullout he’s been advocating for years.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio.
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

Aug. 16, 2021: Biden’s stubborn streak paved the way for havoc in Afghanistan Aug 16, 2021

Show notes

Every biography or deep profile of President Joe Biden emphasizes his stubbornness, the chip on his soldier, his lifelong desire to prove doubters wrong — whether it was overcoming a stutter, or demonstrating his intellectual bona fides or entering political contests the experts said he couldn’t win.

This is what the right gets wrong about Biden. Many conservatives see Biden’s Afghanistan blunder as evidence of a president who is detached and a plaything of his strongest advisers. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio.
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

Aug. 13, 2021: Census senses shifting demographics Aug 13, 2021

Show notes

Zach Montellaro, a POLITICO campaigns reporter and expert in (among other things) redistricting, writes in with a special dispatch today:

Thursday brought the Census Bureau’s long-delayed release of redistricting data — the granular demographic data that mapmakers across the country will use to redraw political boundaries for the next decade. And while it’ll take some more number-crunching before data is ready for prime time, we already have some big takeaways:

1) The country is more diverse.

2) America is more urban.

3) We’re getting older.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio.
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

Aug. 12, 2021: Pelosi's summer squeeze Aug 12, 2021

Show notes

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is calling the House back from summer recess Aug. 23 to vote on the party’s $3.5 trillion budget, but she has a problem: Six moderate House Democrats, our ace House reporters Sarah Ferris and Heather Caygle report, have indicated that they’ll oppose the fiscal blueprint unless the speaker puts the Senate-passed BIF up for a vote at the same time.

The speaker can lose only three votes. So this sets up another Washington staredown, this time pitting Pelosi against some of her most electorally vulnerable members, whom she often bends over backward to protect.

And, former President Donald Trump is expected to meet Thursday with Harriet Hageman, a potential challenger to Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, his Republican nemesis in the House.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio.
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

Aug. 11, 2021: A warning sign for Democrats on climate policy Aug 11, 2021

Show notes

We have liftoff. Early this morning, in a 50-49 vote along party lines, the Senate passed a $3.5 trillion budget resolution that outlines the Dems’ policy agenda.

We stayed up late watching the Senate vote-a-rama, the long and free-wheeling debate over amendments to the budget resolution.

The vote-a-rama is meaningless in some ways. The amendments — as well as the underlying resolution — are all non-binding.

But if there was one area where the Republican Party repeatedly revealed a Democratic divide, it was on climate policy.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio.
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

Aug. 10, 2021: The latest Democratic feud to watch Aug 10, 2021

Show notes

It’s about time. After months of haggling, the chamber is expected to pass the BIF today at 11 a.m., then move fairly quickly to consider Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget resolution. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer indicated late Monday night that he thought both sides would agree to forgo the 50 allowable hours of debate. That would allow the chamber to start their vote-a-rama today and get out of town ASAP.

But, it’s the Senate, y’all. And all it takes is one senator to slow things down.

And, Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel has picked up on a really juicy dynamic playing out in Democratic districts across the country: a war between Justice Democrats and Democratic Majority for Israel. Per Kassel, the faceoff between the two groups is “unusually personal” and “has animated several high-profile contests in recent cycles, particularly amid growing divisions between the hard left and moderates over Israel.”

We saw this playing out last week in the election-night speeches of Shontel Brown, who benefited from contributions from pro-Israel groups and thanked “my Jewish brothers and sisters,” and Nina Turner, who complained about “evil money” from outside groups. The Democratic Majority for Israel super PAC spent nearly $1 million to boost Brown.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio.
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

August 09, 2021: What Biden, Schumer, McConnell, Sinema and Portman learned from BIF Aug 09, 2021

Show notes

The legislation formerly known as BIF — officially it’s the Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act, but IIJA doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue — could pass the Senate today.

What else did we learn during BIF’s long and winding road to (seemingly imminent) passage? We pinged some of the people at the center of the deal in the Senate and White House for some lessons learned. Here are some of the key takeaways.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio.
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

August 06, 2021: McConnell’s Herschel Walker problem, part II Aug 06, 2021

Show notes

Days after Mitch McConnell's political flacks complained about our reporting detailing the GOP leader’s concerns about Herschel Walker running for Senate in Georgia, CNN has a story confirming the scoop and adding to it. McConnell, it turns out, is so worried about the former NFL star and Donald Trump favorite becoming the GOP nominee that he’s seeking other candidates.

And, it’s been nearly eight months, and the Biden administration does not have a single ambassador to a country confirmed.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio.
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

August 05, 2021: Schumer double dares McConnell on the debt ceiling Aug 05, 2021

Show notes

Chuck Schumer is about to double-dog dare Mitch McConnell and his members to vote against a debt ceiling increase this fall. Just weeks after the minority leader implored his counterpart to tack a debt ceiling increase on to their party’s massive reconciliation bill — lifting the $28 trillion borrowing cap without any GOP votes — Schumer instead is maneuvering to make Republicans squirm.

The tentative plan: Tack the debt-ceiling hike on to a short-term funding bill designed to avert a government shutdown at the end of September, a move that would require GOP support. The Democratic leader is, in short, betting the GOP will cave rather than risk the blame for destabilizing an already shaky economy.

And during the 2020 primary season, we had countless conversations with Biden campaign officials who warned that it was crucial to separate the social media conversation about Democratic politics from the conversations happening offline in early states.

It became a cliche to say that Biden’s unofficial campaign slogan was “Twitter isn’t real life.” While Biden and Bernie haven’t been very far apart on policy, old electoral divisions have repeatedly resurfaced in campaigns this year, and we’ve been having a familiar conversation with folks in Biden world recently.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio.
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

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