Pivotal States

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Peril and Promise in the U.S.–China AI Race Nov 21, 2025

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The contest to stay on the leading edge of AI is rapidly taking center stage in America’s strategic competition with China. But what does it actually mean to beat China in AI? Does the United States have the right strategy for navigating this contest? Are policymakers overstating the threats posed by China, or by artificial intelligence itself? And can Washington and Beijing cooperate on areas of high risk even as they compete intensely elsewhere?

In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Colin H. Kahl, Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the Biden administration, to unpack the peril and the promise of U.S.–China competition in AI.

Hard Limits: Testing U.S. Power in Ukraine Oct 03, 2025

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President Donald Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. He sent his negotiator Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for multiple rounds of negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, and even hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin at a high-profile summit in Alaska this August. But despite these moves, the war grinds on with no resolution in sight. Negotiations have stalled as Russia continues to demand sweeping concessions. Frustrated by the lack of progress, Trump is now pressing for more assertive international action against Moscow, even as his own willingness to impose further costs on Russia remains unclear. The path forward looks increasingly grim, and the limits of U.S. influence in Ukraine are becoming ever more apparent. So what kind of outcome is realistically achievable— and at what cost?

To assess the dilemmas inherent in America’s policy toward Ukraine, Chris Chivvis speaks with Thomas Wright, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Senior Director for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.

Would an Asian NATO Be Good for America? Jul 31, 2025

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This summer, during a trip to Asia, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reiterated that the Indo-Pacific is the U.S. Department of Defense’s priority theater. Yet unlike Europe, the region still lacks a multilateral defense alliance, relying instead on a patchwork of bilateral ties and minilateral arrangements. Should the U.S. push for a formal defense pact in the Pacific? Advocates say a new alliance would bring stability and peace, while critics argue it would escalate tensions with China. In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Dr. Ely Ratner of the Marathon Initiative to unpack the risks and benefits. Dr. Ely Ratner, who served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs for the Biden administration, lays out his vision in a recent Foreign Affairs essay, “The Case for a Pacific Defense Pact.”

Trump 2 at 6 Months: Fury and Furor, But What’s Changed? Jul 22, 2025

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In his second term, President Trump cast himself as a “peacemaker and unifier” and tried to bring a swift end to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Six months later, however, those conflicts continue, and last month Trump launched strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran.

What has actually changed? Is Trump altering the trajectory of American global power or ultimately delivering more of the same?

Join Christopher S. Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim, from the Carnegie Endowment’s American Statecraft Program, as they unpack Trump’s second-term record thus far and discuss Stephen’s new essay in the New York Times, “Trump Wants to Put America First. He Has No Idea How.” https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/opinion/trump-america-foreign-policy.html

America and Iran: Is a New Chapter Possible? Jun 10, 2025

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Few relationships are as fraught, and as consequential, as America and Iran’s. The Trump administration inherited a golden opportunity to strike a deal, but the path has been anything but smooth. With the Trump now in nuclear talks with Iran, the question looms: Could this be a Nixon-to-China moment? What would a deal mean for the region? What benefits could it bring, and what’s at stake?

Join Christopher S. Chivvis and Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, as they break down the strategic choices in U.S.-Iran relations.

How Pivotal is the United Kingdom? The Future of U.S.-UK Relations May 05, 2025

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America’s relationship with the United Kingdom is one of the deepest in the world, but in the face of changing interests and new geopolitical pressures, how important will the UK be to the future of American statecraft? UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made it clear that London will not choose between the U.S. and the EU. But navigating this delicate balance isn’t easy. Where is the “special relationship” between London and Washington heading? Does the UK have what it takes to safeguard Europe’s security, with less help from America? Can the U.S. and the UK agree on China?

In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis explores the U.S.-UK relationship with Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

How is Taiwan Reacting to the Trump Administration? Four Experts Visited Taiwan to Find Out Apr 09, 2025

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As the United States overhauls its foreign policy approach, Taiwan is on high alert. The Trump administration’s push for a Ukraine settlement has led many to question Washington’s commitment to Taiwan. What do leaders in Taipei think of these geopolitical changes? What’s the pulse of the Taiwan public?

To find out, American Statecraft Program and national security experts Christopher S. Chivvis, Stephen Wertheim, Brett Rosenberg, and Matthew Duss visited Taipei and met with Taiwan's officials and thought leaders. In this episode of Pivotal States, they share their takeaways and delve into the United States' policy challenge in Taiwan.

Food Security Reimagined | Barbecue Earth Mar 12, 2024

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Winners and losers—every major transition has them. For the world to meet its climate goals, it needs to undergo a partial shift away from traditional meat and toward alternative proteins. But who would be the winners and losers of a global protein transition? In Episode 6, we investigate what this transition might look like and what it could mean for national security and geopolitics.

Consider the Lobster | Barbecue Earth Mar 05, 2024

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There’s a lot to learn from the lobster. Its transformation from disdained prison food to fine-dining delicacy reveals how culture shapes our palate and how people could start to get a taste for food that does less damage to the planet than a bacon cheeseburger. In Episode 5, we look to the future of alternative proteins—from bean burgers to lab-grown nuggets—and ask what it would look like to live in a world less centered on traditional meat production.

Uncle Sam and the Magic Beanstalk | Barbecue Earth Feb 27, 2024

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The soybean is more than just a humble legume—it’s a major geopolitical player that feeds the international meat market, shapes trade wars, and transforms economies. In Episode 4, we tell the story of how the soybeans that feed pigs around the world have shaped the geopolitical behavior of what some call “the Meat Triangle”: the United States, Brazil, and China.

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