One Decision

Latest Episodes:

Is Cuba About to Fall? A 35-Year CIA Analyst on What Comes Next Mar 26, 2026

Show notes

Cuba is running out of fuel, its economy is in ruins, and 2 million of its citizens have already fled. Is the communist regime finally at its breaking point?

Sir Richard Dearlove and Kate McCann sit down with Brian Latell, PhD, a 35-year CIA veteran and the agency's top Cuba and Latin America analyst. They assess whether the government can survive Trump's fuel embargo, what a transition would actually look like, and why Marco Rubio's approach may be more measured than his rhetoric suggests.

In this episode:

04:19 US-Cuba Relations

10:25 Risks of Squeezing Cuba Too Hard

13:03 Can the Regime Collapse Peacefully

18:03 Who Holds Power in Havana

23:02 Intelligence Files and Biosecurity Fears

27:31 Rebuilding Cuba and Diaspora Role

29:35 What Drives Marco Rubio

31:08 One Decision to Watch Next

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Oil Price Pivot: Did Global Markets Force Trump to Pause the War? Mar 24, 2026

Show notes

From an ultimatum to a “pause” in attacks, did President Donald Trump just blink, or is he playing a much larger game with Iran? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and journalist Kate McCann analyze whether President Trump’s sudden shift on Iran is a genuine diplomatic opening, a calculated move to cool soaring global oil prices, or an attempt to buy time for US Marine reinforcements to arrive. They also explore the potential strategic friction between the US and Israel, Trump’s broader foreign policy objectives, including Venezuela and Cuba, and the UK and Europe’s reluctant role in the escalating Iranian conflict.

In this episode:

01:56 – From 48 Hour Ultimatum to Five-Day Pause
03:40 – The Fragility of Global Markets
05:26 – Are There Backchannel Talks Inside Iran?
07:48 – Escalating to De-Escalate
09:41– Israel-US Divergent Aims
11:36 – Does the Conflict Help or Hurt Trump?
15:14 – UK and Europe on the Sidelines

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Largest Oil Supply Shock in History: Inside the Strait of Hormuz Crisis | Helima Croft Mar 19, 2026

Show notes

The Strait of Hormuz is in a chokehold. The scale of this oil supply disruption has already exceeded the shocks of the 1970s. Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood sit down with Helima Croft, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and former senior CIA analyst, to break down what market players are getting wrong, why reopening the Strait is far harder than it looks, and what a Houthi entry into the conflict could mean for the Red Sea.

In this episode:

3:04 Technical Side of Supply Disruption
6:11 IEA and Comparison to Russia-Ukraine
9:32 Alternative Routes for Oil and Gas
12:08 Russia is the Big Winner
13:13 Ground Troops Needed to Open the Strait of Hormuz
17:14 The US Domestic Picture
21:43 Will Houthis Disrupt the Red Sea?
27:52 What Market Participants Are Not Understanding
30:57 Is $200 Barrel Crude Oil Possible?
33:19 Sir Richard and Rosanna Discussion

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“Disappointed Across the Board”: Is Iran Causing the US-EU Alliance to Crumble? Mar 17, 2026

Show notes

President Trump’s call for naval assistance in the Strait of Hormuz has not been answered by European allies. Does this signal a growing crisis of confidence in the West? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and international journalist Rosanna Lockwood examine the latest developments in the war with Iran, as well as rising political polarization in France and the UK, fears of domestic terrorist attacks in the West, and the critical importance of Kharg Island to the global energy market.

In this episode:

01:48 – The divisive dilemma at the Strait of Hormuz
04:05 – Fears of Iranian proxy terror attacks in the West
06:14 – Political polarization in European elections
12:45 – Iran’s internal media strategy
14:47 – The strategic importance of Kharg Island

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Did Netanyahu Drive Trump Into War? NYT's Ronen Bergman + Lt. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Conricus on What’s Next in Iran Mar 12, 2026

Show notes

What exactly drove President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel in joint strikes against Iran? Ronen Bergman joins from Tel Aviv where he is a Senior Correspondent for Military and Intelligence Affairs for Yedioth Ahronoth and staff writer for The New York Times Magazine. He shares his reporting of how Netanyahu moved Trump toward a joint strike, and why he's staying quiet about it for now.

Then, retired Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, former Israeli Defence Forces spokesperson and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, breaks down the major Israeli military objectives and how close Israel is to achieving each one. Plus, what Arab Gulf states are privately telling Israel.

In this episode:

01:24 New Leader Wounded

06:42 Israel Aims And Limits

09:36 Regime Change Doubts

16:14 Israeli Public Mood

23:30 Intel Airpower Strategy

25:12 Introducing LT. COL. (RET.) Jonathan Conricus

29:48 Strait of Hormuz Threat

32:45 Stopping Enriched Uranium

36:21 War Communications as Force Multiplier

40:55 Regime Change Scenarios

43:58 Gulf States Defense

Show Notes:

Iran’s New Supreme Leader Was Wounded Early in the War, Iranian and Israeli Officials Say - The New York Times

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Will "Trump declare victory and go home?" | Congressman Jim Himes on the Iran Endgame Mar 11, 2026

Show notes

One of the few Americans briefed before US hit Iran sits down with Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood to share his analysis: the legal justification is false, the strategic endgame doesn't exist, and we may have just handed Iran every reason to build a nuclear weapon. US Representative Jim Himes (D-CT), Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee, breaks down Trump's grip on Capitol Hill, and whether the only exit is a face-saving declaration of victory.

Recorded March 9th, 2025.

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“The IRGC Got Their Man”: Former UK Defense Minister and Ex-MI6 Chief on Mojtaba Khamenei’s Ascent Mar 10, 2026

Show notes

Mojtaba Khamenei has been appointed to succeed his father as Supreme Leader of Iran. What now? Former UK Defence Secretary Sir Ben Wallace, who spent eight years as Chairman of the British–Iran Parliamentary Group, views this as a doubling down on defiance. Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and international journalist Rosanna Lockwood break down the rationale behind why the IRGC is vested in maintaining the status quo, the growing rift between the United States’s strategy and Gulf States Allies, and whether or not the United States and Israel have a viable endgame.Plus: Already at $100 per barrel, how high will the price of oil climb? What impact will the conflict in Iran have on European security and economies? Are Russia and China giving Iran an intelligence edge?

In this episode:

01:10 Succession in Tehran

02:56 The IRGC as a Business Cartel

04:10 The Gulf States’ Perspective

06:55 UAE Business Backlash

10:26 Insurance and War Risk Shock

14:10 Shahi Drones and Escalation Risks

17:51 EU and UK Economic Hit

19:33 UK Politics and Social Tensions

21:38 One Decision to Watch

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief), Sir Ben Wallace (former UK Defence Secretary) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“Surrender would be far more dangerous to Iran’s survival than war.” - Iran Expert Trita Parsi Mar 05, 2026

Show notes

Iran's strategy isn't to defeat the US militarily. Trita Parsi argues that it's to make the cost high enough, fast enough, to collapse domestic support before Iran loses. With MAGA turning against the war, oil markets destabilizing, and both parties alarmed by talk of ground troops, Trump urgently needs a face-saving exit. Plus, Parsi believes that Iran's revolutionary system was built to withstand exactly this kind of pressure.

Trita Parsi is the co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, co-founder and former president of the National Iranian American Council, and author of four books on US foreign policy in the Middle East.

In this episode:

01:19 Succession After Assassination

03:13 Army vs IRGC Dynamics

10:55 Iran Strategy and US Politics

15:44 Why No Uprising

22:42 Gulf States Security Fallout

25:43 Saudi Shift After Oct 7

30:03 MAGA Backlash and Exit Ramps

33:32 Why Trump Went In

39:56 One Decision to Watch

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist)

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Bolton and Operation Iraqi Freedom Commander: The Lessons from Iraq Trump Can't Ignore Mar 04, 2026

Show notes

Former National Security Advisor John Bolton doesn't mince words: the opening strikes on Iran were just the beginning. In this special bonus episode, Bolton breaks down why he believes the Iranian regime will fragment from within, what the Gulf Arab states are about to do, and how war in Iran affects Russia, Ukraine, and China.

Then, retired Lt. General Mark Hertling brings the view from the ground. A veteran of multiple Iraq deployments and the former Chief of War Plans on the Joint Staff. Hertling has seen this before. He's asking the question nobody in Washington seems to want to answer: Is there actually a plan for the day after the strikes?

In this episode:

01:31 John Bolton
04:32 Power Vacuum Risks
08:44 Gulf States Reaction
10:50 Iran Retaliation Strategy
15:16 Israel Influence Question
17:03 Oil Shock And Putin
19:51 China And Taiwan
23:34 Deterrence And Alliances
29:51 Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling
34:28 Decapitation and Unrest
36:24 Iraq Lessons on Disbandment
42:02 Intel Gaps and Planning
52:19 Wider Regional Fallout

Show Notes:

Lt. General Mark Hertling recorded on March 2, and Amb. John Bolton recorded on March 3.

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Khamenei Has Fallen. Is This the Rebirth of American Deterrence? Ex-MI6 Chief's Analysis Mar 03, 2026

Show notes

After weeks of buildup, the United States and Israel have attacked Iran, killing long-time leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. How will the downfall of his regime reverberate throughout the Middle East and beyond?

Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio) dive into the questions around the decision to strike Iran, what the death of Khamenei means for Iran’s future, and whether Iranian proxies in the region like Hezbollah have the strength to aid in retaliation.

Plus: Does China have a reason to step in and help Iran? Should Russian President Vladimir Putin be concerned that he’s lost an ally, or emboldened because of the United States’ split attention? What will the UK’s involvement be in supporting the US and Israel in this conflict?

In this episode:

01:37 - The decision behind killing Khamenei
03:43 - Ramifications of turning Khamenei into a martyr
06:32 - Why a popular uprising in Iran is unlikely
08:50 - Starlink and the information war
10:25 - How the Ayatollah’s downfall may be the death knell for Iran’s regional proxies
12:28 - Who backs Iran now?
13:51 - Will China be a mediator?
15:48 - Putin’s lost an ally
19:18 - Consequences of Starmer’s hesitancy
22:36 - The lethal combination of Israeli HUMINT and the CIA’s advanced surveillance

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our TOPPODCAST Picks

Follow Us

Stay Connected

Related Podcasts

Links

Stay Connected