One Decision

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Former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Europe’s Most Dangerous Threats Jun 29, 2023

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Former President Donald Trump’s Defense Secretary Mark Esper has come out against his old boss who fired him by tweet in November 2020, just days after the election. Esper has revealed in his memoir that he stayed in the administration in order to ‘hold the line’ against suggestions that the United States might bomb Mexico, Venezuela, or send a quarter million troops to the southern border. One Decision's Sir Richard Dearlove and Julia Macfarlane sit down with Dr. Mark Esper to discuss the current threats to Western interests originating overseas, his assessment of the Ukraine counter-offensive, and if Europe is sleepwalking into a security crisis, arming Ukraine but not refreshing their stocks fast enough. They also discuss the threat China poses to Taiwan and what he would change about AUKUS, the pact between the United Kingdom and the United States, to assist Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.

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Bonus: What Closer US-India Ties Mean for China Jun 25, 2023

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President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a series of strategic deals aimed at strengthening military, economic and technological ties between the two countries. The strategic partnership is crucial as the United States moves to reign in Russia’s influence and counter China’s growing military presence. One Decision's Julia Macfarlane and Sir Richard Dearlove discuss the details of the joint pact including increased defense capabilities, building semiconductor facilities and jet engines in India, more collaboration on advanced technology and what this new partnership means for China.

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US Senate Intelligence Chairman on Latest Threats from China and AI Jun 22, 2023

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One Decision's Julia Macfarlane and former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove sit down with Senator Mark Warner, Chairman of the powerful United States Senate Intelligence Committee. In his role, the Virginia Democrat oversees the vast intelligence community and investigations related to national security. The discussion features the committee's work on investigations into the mishandling of classified documents, the challenge from China, and the emerging threat of artificial intelligence and advanced technology.

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Bonus: Is the European Union Saving us from the Dangers of Artificial Intelligence? Jun 17, 2023

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Two major decisions by European entities this week will likely transform how the world interacts with technology. First, the European Parliament passed legislation that could introduce some of the first major regulations around the use of artificial intelligence, including how the police deploy facial recognition systems. POLITICO's Chief Brussels Correspondent Suzanne Lynch just returned from Strasbourg, where the bill was being debated. She provides an inside look at how the proposed law is shaping up and the ways other governments are likely to use it as a model for their own rules. Additionally, the European Commission took steps to crack down on Google's dominance of online ads. This move may end up leading to the breakup of the company, which has dominated the tech sector for decades.

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How Dangerous is a Second Trump Term? We Ask a Fellow Candidate Jun 15, 2023

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One Decision sits down with Republican presidential candidate Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas to talk about America’s foreign policy priorities and what should be done about China. Hutchinson is an outsider in the race, but insists he is there to widen the parameters of the debate, as Trump and DeSantis continue to offer a populist, nativist vision of America to voters. And, Sir Richard Dearlove reacts to the unsealing of the criminal indictment against former President Trump, as the world learns what exactly was sitting in the rooms at Mar-a-Lago before the FBI carried out raids to retrieve the highly classified intelligence Trump was hoarding nearly a year ago.

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Bonus: Can China & the US Turn Down the Temperature? Jun 11, 2023

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Since President Biden and President Xi exchanged handshakes and smiles at last year’s G20, relations between the two powers have been on shaky ground. Most recently, the United States Defense Secretary was snubbed by his Chinese counterpart in Singapore during a regional defense summit. The Chinese military has lashed out at the United States holding a joint exercise with Canada in the waters around Taiwan, and the United States is still angry at Beijing over the recent saga of ‘spy balloons’ found floating in the air above American towns. As Taiwan warns that Beijing is getting ready to invade in a matter of years, American leaders still seem to be settling on a strategy for how to defend the island. One Decision’s Julia Macfarlane and Brett Bruen look at what the latest diplomatic developments and military maneuvers mean for the possibility of avoiding conflict across the Taiwan Strait.

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Ukraine’s Big Dam Problem Jun 08, 2023

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Ukraine finally began its long-awaited counteroffensive on June 4th, two days before D-Day, the anniversary of the liberation of Europe from the Nazis. Much is at stake - but barely after Ukraine began calculated assaults along Russian lines, someone blew up the Kakhovka Dam. A torrent of floodwater has been unleashed on tens of thousands of homes in both Russian and Ukrainian controlled areas, and both sides are laying blame on each other. If sticky Ukrainian mud was once an issue and a challenge for heavily armored tanks, rising floods, and burst riverbanks are now out of the question. One Decision sits down with CNN’s Nic Robertson, Ukrainian-based editor and founder of The Counteroffensive: A war correspondent's open notebook, Tim Mak, reporting live from Ukraine, and Breaking Defense’s Lee Ferran to discuss Ukraine’s offensive, how the floods might impact Kyiv’s strategy, and what to look out for in the coming weeks ahead of a critical NATO summit in Lithuania.

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BONUS: Why China is Now Saying COVID Could’ve Leaked From Lab Jun 03, 2023

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Professor George Gao, the former head of China's Centre for Disease Control (CDC) recently told the BBC that no theory for the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic should be ruled out including whether or not it came from a lab, after years of extremely insistent public denials from the Chinese leadership. Gao added that China investigated whether the virus may have originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology and admitted that he hadn't actually seen the results of the investigation, but heard that the Institute had been cleared. One Decision's Julia Macfarlane speaks with co-host and former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove about why China is speaking about the origins of the virus now, why he thinks it has zoonotic origins, and why he concluded there's a strong probability it was leaked from the Wuhan lab.

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Blood Batteries: How Our Phones, Computers, & Cars are Driving Congo's Conflicts Jun 01, 2023

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As the world rushes to meet its targets for a green-powered revolution, the demand for materials like cobalt are set to double by the year 2050 due to its critical role in the manufacturing of lithium ion batteries, and the rising demand for electric vehicles. Author and activist Siddharth Kara sits down with One Decision's Julia Macfarlane to discuss his new book, "Cobalt Red: How the Blood of the Congo Powers Our Lives'' which details his undercover investigation of what is happening in the Democratic Republic of Congo—home to the world’s largest sources of cobalt. Although cobalt is blue, Kara argues that the exploitation and violence against the people and children who extract it from the ground for us, and the damage done to their homeland, means that its price is paid for in blood. Plus, analysis from former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove on the scale of the suffering and if the Congo had a stronger identity, how it would be able to determine more of its own fate.

International Intrigue is a <5min daily newsletter written by former diplomats. They scan over 600 sources a day so you don't have to. Sign up to join 50,000 global thinkers.

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Bonus: Does Russia's Pyrrhic Victory in Bakhmut Matter? May 26, 2023

Show notes

Russian forces captured the city of Bakhmut largely led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group and its fighters—who suffered heavy losses on the battlefield. One Decision’s Julia Macfarlane and former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove discuss Russia's next move as it prepares for Ukraine's counter-offensive, and what's behind the border skirmishes in the Russian town of Belgorod.

International Intrigue is a <5min daily newsletter written by former diplomats. They scan over 600 sources a day so you don't have to. Sign up to join 50,000 global thinkers.

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