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    Business

    On The Margin

    The worlds of macro finance and crypto are continuing to draw closer together. On the Margin will host some of the greatest minds in the world of asset management, markets, and discuss how ideas that were once on the margin are now becoming mainstream.

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    Copyright: © 384141 Blockworks 2021

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    Latest Episodes:
    The BTC/ETH ETF Flows Are Just Getting Started | Matt Hougan Oct 17, 2024

    In this episode, Matt Hougan joins the show to discuss BTC vs ETH ETF flows, the biggest ETF misconceptions, and the importance of regulatory clarity. We also delve into the value of incorporating BTC in a portfolio, future crypto ETF strategies, and much more. Enjoy!

    —

    Follow Matt Hougan: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    —

    Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

    Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started


    MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

    Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:51) BTC vs ETH ETFs

    (03:18) Success of BTC ETFs

    (04:28) Marginal Buyers of Crypto ETFs

    (06:49) Lackluster ETH ETF Flows

    (08:45) Surprise ETH ETF Approval

    (09:56) Value Proposition of Ethereum

    (12:41) Sacrificing ETH Utility in ETF Wrapper

    (13:55) Crypto ETF Options

    (18:38) The Future of Crypto ETFs

    (21:51) Bitwise Filing Process

    (23:27) Biggest ETF Misconceptions

    (26:17) Advertisements

    (27:32) Compliance Process

    (29:43) Election & Regulation

    (33:18) Regulatory Clarity

    (36:03) Incorporating Bitcoin Into A Portfolio

    (40:00) Gold vs BTC

    (42:10) Crypto Market Forecasts

    (44:29) Learn More About Matt & Bitwise


    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Economy is in Goldilocks | Ram Ahluwalia Oct 15, 2024

    In this episode, Ram Ahluwalia joins the show to discuss his macro view of markets, why he thinks we’re in goldilocks, and his thought process for asset allocation. We also delve into NVIDIA and AI, factor investing, and the role of risk-adjusted returns. Enjoy!

    —

    Follo Ram: https://x.com/ramahluwalia

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    —

    Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

    Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

    MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

    Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:56) Ram & Lumida Wealth

    (02:32) Macro Overview

    (05:54) 50 Bps Cut Was a Mistake

    (07:19) Economic Goldilocks

    (11:27) Fed Mandate

    (12:33) Cutting Cycle Path

    (14:32) The Neutral Rate & Animal Spirits

    (17:05) Election Impact on Markets

    (18:55) Advertisements

    (20:11) Asset Allocation Strategies

    (25:27) NVIDIA & AI

    (28:55) Factor Investing

    (33:09) Mathematical Model Shortfalls

    (35:53) Risk-Adjusted Returns

    (39:24) Digital Asset Framework

    (45:40) Market Outlook


    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Great BTC ETF Debate: Bearish or Bullish? Oct 11, 2024

    In this episode, Jim Bianco and James Seyffart join Felix at Permissionless to discuss who has been buying the BTC ETFs, whether ETFs are consistent with crypto ideals, and why the BTC ETFs were more successful than the ETH ETFs. We also delve into the difference between buying to hold and arbitrage, BTC ETF options, and much more. Enjoy!

    —

    Follow Jim Bianco: https://x.com/biancoresearch

    Follow James Seyffart: https://x.com/JSeyff

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    —

    Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

    Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started


    MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

    Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:49) Have Bitcoin ETFs Been A Success?

    (02:27) Who is Buying Bitcoin ETFs?

    (06:58) Are ETFs Consistent with Crypto Ideals?

    (11:13) Basis Trade vs Holding

    (15:46) Advertisements

    (17:21) ETH ETFs vs BTC ETFs

    (22:08) Bitcoin ETF Options

    (26:59) Crypto Ideals at Risk?


    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Last Bitcoin Cycle That Matters | Charles Edwards Sep 26, 2024

    In this episode, Charles Edwards joins the show to discuss why the current cycle is the last that will matter, the impact of Bitcoin ETFs, and what the on-chain data is signaling. We also delve into the approval of options on the IBIT ETF, the key top signals, and much more. Enjoy!

    —

    Follow Charles Edwards: https://x.com/caprioleio

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    —

    Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

    Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started


    MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

    Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    —

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:04) Macro Overview

    (03:54) Soft Landing vs Hard Landing

    (06:09) Bitcoin Seasonality

    (09:22) Current Bitcoin Cycle Dynamics

    (12:57) Bitcoin Macro Index

    (14:41) Future Bitcoin Cycles Won't Matter

    (17:10) On-chain Data

    (19:50) Bitcoin ETFs

    (23:09) Ads

    (24:23) Interview Continues

    (27:38) Impact of IBIT Options

    (29:05) Financialization vs the Bitcoin Ethos

    (31:53) The Bitcoin Endgame

    (34:44) Leverage & Funding Rates

    (38:35) Top Signals


    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Fed’s Dilemma: Deflationary Cliff Or Debt Spiral | James Lavish Sep 19, 2024

    In this episode, James and Felix discuss the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the impact of quantitative easing & tightening, and the consequences of trillion-dollar annual deficits. We also delve into the repo market, why the Fed is disconnected from inflation, the role of hard assets like Bitcoin and gold, and much more. Enjoy!


    —

    Follow James Lavish: https://x.com/jameslavish

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    —

    Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.


    Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started


    MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.


    Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    —

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:11) Unpacking The Fed Decision & Dual Mandate

    (12:53) Quantitative Easing & Tightening

    (18:24) 2019 Repo Spike & Dollar Shortage

    (24:39) Trillion-Dollar Annual Deficits

    (36:22) Advertisements

    (37:36) Why The Fed is Disconnected from Inflation

    (44:47) Is Bitcoin the Solution?

    (48:46) Gold & Bitcoin As Stores of Value

    (53:13) Permissionless Ad

    (53:54) Bitcoin Use Case For Global Sovereigns

    (58:58) Where to Follow James' Work


    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Fed Cutting Cycle Imminent, What's Next for Markets? | Weekly Roundup Sep 14, 2024

    This week we discuss the split odds between a 25 and 50 basis point cut at the Fed’s next meeting, market cutting cycle dynamics, and the rotation from growth to value. We also delve into the latest inflation data, rising labor productivity, and the outlook for crypto Enjoy!

    –

    Follow Ram: https://x.com/ramahluwalia

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    –

    Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1XMVpZ672sX1qJV-admNYvznOPFXR737S

    –

    Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

    Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

    MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

    Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    –

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    –

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:22) Ram's Background

    (03:26) 25 Bps vs 50 Bps

    (08:42) Inflation Data

    (11:01) The Economy Is Okay

    (12:36) Fed Opening the Door to 50 Bps Cut

    (16:08) Parsing the Economic Data

    (18:12) Labor Productivity

    (20:27) Ads

    (21:44) Chinese Economy & Red Flags

    (28:08) US Equities

    (32:02) Growth Vs Value

    (34:31) Factor Market

    (36:34) Market Rotation

    (44:24) Permissionless Ad

    (45:02) Narratives Driving Markets

    (48:21) Digital Assets

    (54:49) Bitcoin & Crypto Price Action

    (59:05) Hot Money Rotation

    (01:00:37) Cutting Cycle Dynamics


    –

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Breaking Down the Disconnect Between TradFi & Crypto | Austin Campbell Sep 12, 2024

    In this episode, Austin Campbell joins the show to discuss the modern banking system and how crypto is driving innovation. We also delve into stablecoin designs, their role in dollar hegemony, the pros and cons across the spectrum of decentralization, and much more. Enjoy!

    –

    Follow Austin Campbell: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    NYDFS Stablecoin Guidance: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/regulatory/us-regulatory-nydfs-stablecoin-guidance.pdf

    –

    MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

    Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    –

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    –

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:46) Austin's Background

    (03:21) Unpacking the Banking System

    (06:15) Money Markets & Reverse Repo

    (10:35) Crypto's Role in Banking

    (14:05) Stablecoin Designs & Reserves

    (22:00) What is Crypto Solving?

    (27:33) Mantra Ad

    (28:14) Spectrum of Decentralization

    (32:34) CBDCs

    (36:41) Blockchains vs Databases

    (40:06) Permissionless Ad

    (40:46) Crypto & Dollar Hegemony

    (44:52) Backlash to Crypto

    (47:46) Crypto Market Outlook

    –

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Fed Easing Will Match Weakness In The Labor Market | Weekly Roundup Sep 07, 2024

    This week we discuss the soft jobs report and how it compares to the other data, the state of the yield curve and credit markets, and how China is bringing down commodities. We also delve into AI centralization, the outlook for Bitcoin and crypto, and much more. Enjoy!

    –

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    –

    Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GnXSyf79KLMoG5p0RRFoNBoAQUet_TOE/view?usp=sharing

    –

    Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

    Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

    MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

    Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    –

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    –

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:37) Non-Farm Payrolls

    (09:52) Comparing Other Labor Market Data

    (12:47) The Fed's Reaction Function

    (17:54) The Yield Curve Uninverting

    (19:13) Credit Spreads & Equity Rotation

    (25:54) Buy What The Government Is Incentivizing

    (28:34) Advertisements

    (29:48) Tyler's AI Rant

    (33:25) What's Going On In China?

    (39:30) Flight From China

    (41:52) Permissionless Ad

    (42:32) Crypto Market Update

    (44:54) The Effects Of Rate Cuts

    (47:13) Bitcoin Downside & Outlook

    –

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Why The Fed Shouldn’t Cut Rates | Eric Wallerstein Sep 04, 2024

    In this episode, Eric Wallerstein joins the show to discuss why the labor market is cooling (not crashing), the decline in the personal savings rate, and increasing labor productivity. We also break down GDP, the credit markets, and how to rethink asset allocation in today's market. Enjoy!

    –

    Follow Eric Wallerstein: https://x.com/ericwallerstein

    Yardeni QuickTakes: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    –

    MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

    Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    –

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    –

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:14) Eric's Background

    (03:07) The Labor Market Is Okay

    (08:17) Why The Fed Is So Dovish

    (11:08) Consumer Savings

    (14:22) Real Wages

    (16:53) Labor Productivity

    (20:38) Breaking Down GDP

    (24:08) Economic Big Picture

    (26:46) Mantra Ad

    (27:25) Risks To The Consumer

    (29:52) The Fed Doesn't Need To Cut

    (33:34) Private Credit Markets

    (37:08) The Fed Supporting Credit Markets

    (39:17) Bond Markets

    (41:54) Stock & Bond Correlations

    (44:10) Rethinking Asset Allocation

    (46:22) Permissionless Ad

    (47:02) Global Markets & The Carry Trade Unwind

    (49:36) Chinese Economy

    (52:15) Europe Doesn't Issue Debt

    (55:31) Key Takeaways

    –

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    NVIDIA Passing The Baton From Growth To Value | Weekly Roundup Aug 31, 2024

    This week we discuss NVIDIA's latest earnings, the ongoing market rotation from growth to value, and the connection between credit spreads and unemployment. We also delve into the health of the consumer, the future Federal Reserve balance sheet, and Bitcoin geopolitics. Enjoy!

    --

    On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

    --

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fUP_rOgvrTDONP2DfYnJyrzgbmWFt0mP/view?usp=drive_link

    Kansas Fed Paper: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/10443/Anil_Kashyap_Remarks_JH.pdf

    –

    Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

    Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started


    MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

    Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    –

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction

    02:27 NVIDIA Earnings

    08:12 Growth Vs Value

    11:36 S&P 500 Earnings Growth

    14:02 Yield Curve Steepening

    17:40 High Yield Spreads

    19:58 Credit Spreads, Unemployment & Recession

    23:00 The Health Of The Consumer

    29:59 Advertisements

    31:14 The Future Fed Balance Sheet

    37:05 Consequences Of Controlling Volatility

    38:57 Central Bank Independence

    41:18 Permissionless Ad

    41:57 A Weaker US Dollar

    44:54 Bitcoin & Geopolitics

    53:19 Nobody Makes Money In Perps

    56:51 Are Rate Cuts Bearish?

    59:29 Will We Ever See Negative Real Rates Again?

    01:02:02 Altcoins & Macro



    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Bull Market Will Continue Into 2025 As Liquidity Heads Higher | Michael Howell Aug 28, 2024

    In this episode, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital joins the show to discuss the uptrend in global liquidity, a possible Shanghai Accord 2 to weaken the dollar, and the relationship between debt and liquidity. We also discuss the real breakeven inflation rate, the yield curve, and why you need monetary inflation hedges. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Michael Howell: https://x.com/crossbordercap

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

    Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:18) Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

    (04:20) Uptrend In Global Liquidity

    (05:53) Global Risk Exposure

    (12:10) A New Shanghai Accord

    (18:44) Mantra Ad

    (19:24) Mechanics Of Yen Intervention

    (22:01) The Treasury Market

    (30:20) Breakeven Inflation Rates

    (32:56) Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio

    (35:52) Permissionless Ad

    (36:33) US Public Debt

    (40:14) Monetary Inflation Hedges

    (43:11) Managing Bill Issuance

    (47:03) Bull Vs Bear Steepener

    (48:50) The Structure Of Global Liquidity

    (50:08) The MOVE Index

    (53:49) Treasury Buybacks

    (55:06) Real Interest Rates

    (56:38) Equity Market & PBOC Liquidity

    (59:37) More Upside In Gold & BTC


    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    The Fed Put Is In & Global Easing Has Begun | Weekly Roundup Aug 24, 2024

    This week we discuss Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech, employment outweighing inflation, and Kamala Harris’ newly-proposed economic policies. We also dive into the credit markets, crypto regulation, and altcoins. Enjoy!

    --

    On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

    Roundup Chart Deck: https://blckwrks.co/4dUUAj5

    --

    Follow Zaheer: https://x.com/SplitCapital

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    –

    Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

    Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

    –

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:13) Jackson Hole Speech

    (08:17) Employment Outweighing Inflation

    (09:33) Zaheer's Macro View

    (11:18) Housing Comeback

    (13:49) Polkadot Ad

    (14:26) Global Liquidity

    (18:01) Credit Isn't The Problem

    (23:02) New Cycle Of Investing

    (26:22) Kamala's Economic Policies

    (34:45) Permissionless Ad

    (35:27) Crypto Regulation

    (42:27) Election Impact On Crypto

    (44:19) Crypto Market Outlook

    (50:42) The Bull Market Hasn't Even Started

    (54:55) Altcoins

    (59:21) Attributes Of Value

    (01:01:37) Don't Fight The Fed

    (01:03:11) Polkadot Ad

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Generating Alpha In Macro | Capital Flows Aug 21, 2024

    In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to discuss his macro philosophy & framework, why he was bullish after the VIX surge, and his views on the yield curve. We also discuss the equity bull market, whether the Fed will allow a recession, and the key drivers of bitcoin's price. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows

    Capital Flows Substack: https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

    Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:59) Capital Flows Research & Strategy

    (04:49) Macro Philosophy

    (07:48) Macro Framework

    (11:39) Bullish After VIX Surge

    (15:26) Credit & Duration Risk

    (18:46) Mantra Ad

    (19:26) Interest Rate Expectations

    (25:51) Bull Vs Bear Steepener

    (27:27) What's Priced Into The Curve

    (30:38) Permissionless Ad

    (31:17) What's Driving The Equity Bull Market

    (36:31) Upside Tail Risks

    (39:31) Will The Fed Allow An Extended Recession?

    (43:58) Bitcoin Price Drivers


    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Has The Dust Settled? | Weekly Roundup Aug 17, 2024

    This week we discuss the back and forth between recession and soft landing, the bond market’s economic signals, and the Fed's measured response to the market sell-off. We also delve into the massive VIX decline, July’s CPI, and the frustrating crypto market. Enjoy!

    --

    On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

    --

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    –

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:39) Schrödinger's Soft Landing

    (04:19) What Is The Bond Market Saying About The Economy?

    (06:54) The Fed Kept Its Cool

    (09:05) Massive VIX Decline

    (11:40) Will Markets Adjust To The Sell-Off?

    (18:06) The Role Of Flows

    (21:57) July CPI

    (24:58) What's Going On With China?

    (29:13) The Fed's Next Move

    (31:26) Market Overreaction

    (34:17) Bitcoin & ETFs

    (40:06) Frustrating Crypto Market

    (42:48) How Many New Balances Does Tyler Own?

    (44:09) What Can Stop The Fiscal Debt Spiral?

    (47:53) Why The BOJ Backpedaled

    (53:41) The Globalization Of Central Banks


    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    The Mystery Behind The Stock Market Sell-Off | Alex Campbell Aug 12, 2024

    In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss volatility, "Magnificent Seven" concentration, and dispersion trades. We also unpack the mechanics of the carry trade, how short volatility and hedging strategies are shaping the markets, and the role of artificial intelligence in finance. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --


    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:06) Market Volatility Overview

    (04:51) Magnificent Seven Concentration

    (06:24) Dispersion Trades

    (10:49) Market Risks & Correlations

    (14:09) Mantra Ad

    (15:15) The Carry Trade

    (18:14) Market Volatility Vs Credit & The Economy

    (23:44) Impact Of Short Volatility & Hedging On Markets

    (31:25) Permissionless Ad

    (32:04) Artificial Intelligence And Alex's Startup Rose AI

    (34:54) Collecting & Using Market Data

    (39:44) The Future Of Finance

    (43:46) Future Of The AI Industry

    (46:20) Alex's Thoughts On Crypto


    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Recession vs Rebound Debate | Weekly Roundup Aug 10, 2024

    This week we discuss the unwinding of the carry trade, the impact of correlations during deleveraging events, and which assets stand to benefit the most from increased liquidity and upcoming rate cuts. We also delve into the widening of credit spreads, steel man the recession argument, and examine the state of the labor market. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.


    Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction

    01:38 Reflecting On The Market Unwind

    07:41 No Asset Spared In Deleveraging Events

    12:23 Polkadot Ad

    13:22 Navigating Extreme Volatility

    18:39 Assessing Liquitidy Signals

    21:23 What Benefits The Most From Liquidity & Rate Cuts?

    23:36 Looking At Credit Spreads

    26:14 Steel Man-ing The Recession Argument

    42:30 Permissionless Ad

    43:10 State Of The Labor Market

    45:38 Where Is Economic Growth?

    50:37 Is The Recession On Its Way?

    55:18 Crypto Market Overview

    01:03:36 Biggest Trading Mistakes

    01:08:26 How Much Of The Carry Trade Is Unwound


    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Sahm Rule Triggered, Are We In A Recession? | Claudia Sahm Aug 07, 2024

    In this episode, Claudia Sahm joins the show to discuss her namesake recession indicator the Sahm Rule. We deep dive into unemployment, whether or not we are in a recession, and how the Federal Reserve should be reacting. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow guest: https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:13) What is the Sahm Rule?

    (06:29) Sahm Rule Triggered

    (08:37) Purpose of the Sahm Rule

    (10:20) Are We in a Recession?

    (14:05) Mantra Ad

    (15:18) Unemployment Dynamics of the Sahm Rule

    (18:16) Unemployment Dynamics of a Recession

    (21:22) Sahm Rule 2.0

    (22:56) Blame the Fed, Not the Sahm Rule

    (24:35) July Unemployment Report

    (32:10) Permissionless Ad

    (32:49) How the Fed Looks at the Labor Market

    (38:14) Should the Fed be Cutting Rates?

    (40:38) Are We Heading for a Hard Landing?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Why Are Markets Unwinding? | Weekly Roundup Aug 02, 2024

    This week we discuss another volatile week in markets with the continuing deleveraging that took place as on the back of a data heavy week. We discuss our takeaways from FOMC, QRA, economic data & the market reaction. Enjoy!

    --

    On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

    --

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    Referenced In The Show: https://a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:28) QRA & FOMC Takeaways

    (16:07) Why Are Markets Unwinding?

    (23:51) The Yen Carry Trade Unwind

    (26:11) Permissionless Ad

    (26:50) What's Happening In Crypto?

    (31:13) Coinbase Earnings

    (35:39) Tether Earnings

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan Aug 01, 2024

    In this episode, Danny Dayan joins the show to break down what he is seeing in markets post FOMC. With rate cuts expected & markets continuing to melt up, Danny makes the case for why the Fed shouldn't be cutting rates here. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:32) FOMC Takeaway's

    (03:24) The Economy Is Strong, Should The Fed Cut Rates?

    (11:03) Mantra Ad

    (12:10) Why Is This Economic Cycle Different?

    (17:56) QRA & The QT Impact

    (22:08) What's The Trade?

    (28:27) Permissionless Ad

    (29:05) Stock Market Rotation & The Yen Carry Trade Unwind

    (37:51) What's Next For Markets?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Is It Time To Be Bullish? | Weekly Roundup Jul 27, 2024

    This week we discuss the volatile week in markets with the deleveraging that took place as the Yen carry trade unwound. With markets quickly bouncing back, we discuss is it time to be bullish? We then deep dive into the launch of the ETH ETFs, the path forward for crypto & the inflation outlook. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

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    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod


    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    Referenced In The Show: https://a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance | Lyn Alden Jul 24, 2024

    In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to discuss the rise of fiscal dominance & it's impact on markets in H2 2024 & beyond. We then deep dive into Bitcoin as a reserve asset, the election impact, what asset classes should perform well over the next 3-6 months & more. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Lyn: https://x.com/LynAldenContact

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:49) The Rate Cutting Cycle

    (05:09) Is The Economy Slowing?

    (08:51) Will We See A Recession?

    (11:02) The Small Cap Rotation

    (13:34) Mantra Ad

    (14:43) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance

    (18:12) The Election Impact

    (21:34) Bitcoin As A Strategic Reserve Asset

    (33:13) Permissionless Ad

    (33:54) Oil & Energy

    (42:05) Stocks, Bonds & The Three Pillar Portfolio

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Stock Market & Crypto Are Turning | Weekly Roundup Jul 20, 2024

    This week we discuss what is happening in crypto & traditional markets. With rate cut expectations building, are we on the verge of a massive small cap rotation? We then deep dive into the dispersion trade unwind, is crypto about to catch up to the momentum in traditional markets, the U.S election impact & more. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

    Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod


    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    A Soft Landing Is Unrealistic | Andy Constan Jul 17, 2024

    In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show for a discussion on the current state of the U.S economy & inflation continues to roll over & financial conditions remain loose. We deep dive into the outlook for stocks, bonds & markets into H2 2024. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --


    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:27) Why The Economy Has Remained Strong

    (04:39) Financial Conditions Are Still Loose

    (11:32) Mantra Ad

    (12:39) Relief In The Long End Has Been Fueling A Stock Market Rally

    (23:01) What To Expect From The QRA?

    (29:24) Permissionless Ad

    (30:02) Alpha vs Beta


    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    What Deflation Means for Crypto, Gold and Tech | Weekly Roundup Jul 13, 2024

    In this episode, we dive deep into the latest CPI data showing potential deflationary trends and explore its implications. We analyze how deflation could reshape crypto, gold, and technology stocks. We also cover the Federal Reserve's likely response, the weakening dollar, and the potential for a major market rotation from big tech to small caps and commodities. Thanks for tuning in!

    --

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.


    Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:11) CPI & Inflation Outlook

    (13:05) Avalanche Ad

    (14:30) Equity Outlook

    (25:13) Labor Market Conditions

    (34:54) Permissionless Ad

    (35:34) German Gov & Mt Gox Supply Overhang

    (45:01) Crypto vs Gold Catch Up Trade

    (55:06) Evolving Politics Culture

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Timestamps:

    An Inevitable Recession? Why the Soft Landing is a Myth | Julian Brigden Jul 10, 2024

    In this episode, Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners discusses the current economic landscape, challenging the prevailing optimism about a soft landing. He delves into the complexities of the labor market, the sticky nature of core service inflation, and the psychological shift in corporate pricing strategies. Brigden explores the Federal Reserve's dilemma in managing inflation without triggering a recession, and examines global economic flows and their impact on the US dollar. To close out Julian unpacks where potential may exist in the choppy market. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Julian Brigden: https://x.com/julianmi2

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.


    Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:46) Are Rate Cuts Coming?

    (08:54) Why Rate Cuts Might Not Come

    (14:46) Avalanche Ad

    (16:07) Mantra Ad

    (17:13) Why Rate Cuts Might Not Come (Continued)

    (20:41) 2025 Recession Outlook

    (29:02) Bond Market Sentiment

    (30:48) Permissionless Ad

    (31:28) Reality of Inflation

    (48:13) Global Market Opportunity

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    The Exponential Age: Liquidity Will Continue To Surge Into 2025 | Raoul Pal Jul 03, 2024

    This week Raoul Pal joins the show to discuss his exponential age thesis. We deep dive into why liquidity will resurge into H2 2024, why diversification is dead, financial repression, the fourth turning & how all these factors impact markets. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Raoul: https://x.com/RaoulGMI

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:17) The Liquidity Cycle

    (09:26) Trouble In Japan's FX Market

    (13:00) Mantra Ad

    (14:06) Financial Repression

    (15:43) Diversification Is Dead

    (20:12) The Age Of Debt

    (27:25) Permissionless Ad

    (28:06) The Crypto Thesis

    (39:28) The Banana Zone

    (46:10) Changing Your Investment Framework

    (48:55) The Fourth Turning

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Rate Cuts Are Coming | Weekly Roundup Jun 29, 2024

    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T

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    --

    This week, we discuss the latest in markets after the presidential debate between Biden & Trump. We deep dive into how markets would react to a Biden vs Trump win in November, the indicators suggesting the Fed will need to cut rates soon, crypto's setup into H2 2024 & Friday's PCE print. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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    On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

    --

    Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.


    Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    There's Still No Recession, Can Stocks Continue To Grind Higher? | David Cervantes Jun 26, 2024

    This week David Cervantes joins the show for a discussion on the current setup for both the economy and markets heading into the second half of 2024. We discuss the recession outlook, will stocks continue to grind higher & how to make macro actionable. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow David: https://x.com/EconstratPB

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:00) The Fed's Already Got Their Soft Landing

    (08:14) The Economy Is Slowing

    (11:34) Mantra Ad

    (12:44) When Will The Fed Cut Rates?

    (17:15) How To Make Macro Actionable

    (29:15) Permissionless Ad

    (29:54) The U.S Fiscal Dilemma

    (32:18) Can Stocks Continue To Rally In 2024?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Are Markets Beginning To Roll Over? | Weekly Roundup Jun 22, 2024

    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T

    Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM

    Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX

    --

    This week, we discuss are markets beginning to roll over as market breadth continues to widen. We then deep dive into the U.S election impact, inflation & are we entering a growth slowdown? Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

    --

    Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.


    Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Liquidity Will Soon Rise | Joe McCann Jun 19, 2024

    This week Joe McCann joins the show for a discussion on the current backdrop for macro & crypto. As markets anticipate Fed rate cuts, will stocks & crypto continue to rally if a resurgence in liquidity is around the corner? Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Joe: https://x.com/joemccann

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:08) Combining The Worlds Of Macro & Crypto

    (09:46) The Crypto Thesis

    (14:22) Solana

    (21:53) Bitcoin

    (25:18) Rate Cuts Are Coming

    (31:00) Takeaways From FOMC

    (39:30) Liquidity Is About To Resurge

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    What's The End Game For Inflation? | Weekly Roundup Jun 15, 2024

    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T

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    Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX

    --

    This week, we discuss our takeaways from this weeks crucial CPI & PPI prints alongside the Fed's slightly hawkish FOMC meeting. We deep dive into the current market structure & discuss whether or not this rally could be about to enter a couple months of weakness? Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

    --

    Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.


    Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Stocks Will Continue To Crush Bonds In 2024 | Joseph Wang Jun 13, 2024

    This week Joseph Wang joins the show post FOMC to break down how markets are reacting to positive inflation data & Powell's press conference comments. As the U.S continues to run large fiscal deficits, Joseph outlines his thesis for why he expects stocks to continue crushing bonds in 2024 & why markets will actually crash up instead of down. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:14) FOMC Meeting Takeaways

    (10:30) The U.S Labour Market

    (12:56) Mantra Ad

    (14:05) Stocks Will Continue To Crush Bonds In 2024

    (16:43) Rate Cuts Are Coming... And It's Bullish

    (19:51) Gold, Commodities & Bitcoin

    (23:45) Crypto's Wealth Effect

    (27:55) Is There A Bear Case For Equities?

    (30:14) Permissionless Ad

    (30:52) Monetary Plumbing & The QT Taper

    (34:32) Presidential Elections & Their Impact On Markets

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Beginning Of The Rate Cutting Cycle, Time To Be Bullish? | Weekly Roundup Jun 08, 2024

    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T

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    Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX

    --

    This week, we discuss are we at the beginning of a global rate cutting cycle as the ECB, BoC & SNB have all lowered interest rates. How will this impact markets in the second half of 2024? Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    --

    Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.


    Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Exploring Crypto's Modular Path | Rex & NoSleepJon Jun 06, 2024

    In this special episode, the Jason and Mike announce the launch of Expansion, a new Blockworks podcast focusing on the modular blockchain ecosystem.


    Expansion hosts Rex and NoSleepJon aim to explore the modular design concepts and architectural principles in the blockchain space. They highlight the benefits and challenges of modularity, the cultural and technical aspects, and how this new ecosystem is poised to disrupt existing technologies. Thanks for tuning in!

    - -

    Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@expansionpod

    Subscribe on Apple: http://apple.co/4bGKYYM

    Subscribe on Spotify: http://spoti.fi/3Vaubq1


    Follow Zon: https://x.com/ItsAlwaysZonny

    Follow Keone: https://x.com/keoneHD

    Follow Rex: https://x.com/LogarithmicRex

    Follow nosleepjon: https://x.com/nosleepjon

    Follow Expansion: https://x.com/ExpansionPod_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    - -

    Timestamps

    (00:00) Introduction

    (05:07) Modularity in Crypto

    (18:50) Sovereignty & ZK with Modularity

    (25:30) Value Accrual in Crypto

    (35:11) Surviving Fragmentation

    (43:23) Modularity Ecosystem Competition

    - -

    Disclaimer

    Expansion was kickstarted by a grant from the Celestia Foundation.


    Nothing said on Expansion is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Rex, Jon, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    The Fed Wants To Ease, Will The Everything Rally Continue? | Warren Pies Jun 05, 2024

    This episode Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss the current state of markets with oil trending lower, markets continuing to rally & a pivotal FOMC next week. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Warren: https://x.com/WarrenPies

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.


    Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:23) Oil, Rates & The Global Cutting Cycle

    (15:58) Avalanche Ad

    (17:19) Mantra Ad

    (18:27) Inflation

    (25:51) What To Expect Ahead Of FOMC

    (32:25) Permissionless Ad

    (33:11) Why Did The Fed Taper QT?

    (39:37) The Deficit Impact

    (42:54) Macro Doomerism

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Modular Integration Spectrum | Keone & Zon Jun 05, 2024

    In this episode, Keone from Monad and Zon from Initia to discuss the spectrum between modular and integrated blockchain designs. They explore the tradeoffs in decentralization, performance and scalability between the two approaches. They explore AppChains, rollups, composability challenges in modular systems, EVM compatibility, and when to scale blockchains horizontally vs vertically. To close out Keone and Zon also share valuable insights on building Web3 communities organically. Thanks for tuning in!

    - -

    Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@expansionpod

    Subscribe on Apple: http://apple.co/4bGKYYM

    Subscribe on Spotify: http://spoti.fi/3Vaubq1


    Follow Zon: https://x.com/ItsAlwaysZonny

    Follow Keone: https://x.com/keoneHD

    Follow Rex: https://x.com/LogarithmicRex

    Follow nosleepjon: https://x.com/nosleepjon

    Follow Expansion: https://x.com/ExpansionPod_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (03:24) Modular vs Integrated

    (11:47) Who are Appchains for?

    (28:58) Composability in Modular World

    (36:15) Monad's Endgame

    (39:47) Importance of Decentralization

    (48:05) Building Web3 Community

    --

    Disclaimer:


    Expansion was kickstarted by a grant from the Celestia Foundation.


    Nothing said on Expansion is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Rex, Jon, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    The Inflation Paradox: Inflation Is Still A Problem | Weekly Roundup Jun 01, 2024

    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T

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    Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX

    --

    This week Jack Farley joins us to discuss the biggest stories of the week. With economic data showing early signs of slowing, we deep dive into why inflation is still a problem for most citizens & although we are not in a recession, we are very much so in a "vibecession". Enjoy!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    --

    Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.


    Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Ethereum ETF Turning Point | Weekly Roundup May 25, 2024

    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T

    Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM

    Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX

    --

    This week we discuss the Ethereum ETF approval & what it means for ETH the asset, crypto more broadly & U.S elections. We then deep dive into the bull thesis & discuss wether or not we are still bullish going into summer. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

    Follow Quinn: https://twitter.com/qthomp

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    --

    Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.


    Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

    --

    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.


    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Ethereum ETF Is Approved | Eric Balchunas & James Seyffart May 24, 2024

    We apologise for any video/audio issues this episode!

    --

    This episode Eric Balchunas & James Seyffart join the show to discuss the sudden Ethereum ETF approval shock that surprised markets this week. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Eric: https://x.com/EricBalchunas

    Follow James: https://x.com/JSeyff

    Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.


    Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:12) The ETH Approval

    (08:55) Demand For An ETH ETF

    (14:02) Avalanche Ad

    (15:23) Mantra Ad

    (16:29) Will We See More ETFs?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Forget Rate Cuts, The Fed Will Raise Rates Again In 2024 | Danny Dayan May 24, 2024

    This episode Danny Dayan joins the show alongside Felix Jauvin for a discussion on the problem the Fed faces as inflation remains too high. Making the argument for another rate hike in 2024 vs consensus of rate cuts, we deep dive into financial conditions, the deficit impact, how the Fed broke the yield curve in 2021 & more. Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction

    01:21 Forget Rate Cuts, The Fed Will Hike Again

    07:40 Financial Conditions Are Too Loose

    11:29 Avalanche Ad

    12:50 Mantra Ad

    19:47 The Fed Broke The Yield Curve In 2021

    34:31 Fiscal Deficits & The Credit Impulse

    39:25 The U.S Debt Problem

    43:09 Why Is China Buying So Much Gold?

    47:18 Oil

    50:26 How To Trade 2024?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Biggest Risk Is A Market Melt-Up | Weekly Roundup May 18, 2024

    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T

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    Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX

    --

    This week we discuss the bullish setup for an everything rally. After a bullish CPI print, the return of roaring kitty & most macro event risk behind us, are animal spirits about to unleash once again in a 2021 style melt-up? Are we entering the "banana zone"... Enjoy!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

    Follow Quinn: https://twitter.com/qthomp

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    --

    Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.


    Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

    --

    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.


    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    What Stops The Runaway U.S Fiscal Trainwreck? | Weekly Roundup May 11, 2024

    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T

    Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM

    Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX

    --

    This week we discuss the current U.S fiscal situation. What impact will elections have on markets & the every growing U.S debt burden. Enjoy!

    --

    Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions. Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

    --

    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.

    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

    Follow Quinn: https://twitter.com/qthomp

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

    Powell's Bullish Signal To Markets | Weekly Roundup May 04, 2024

    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T

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    --

    This week we discuss the bullish setup post FOMC & QRA. We also discuss the rise of distrust in institutions, Japan's Minsky moment, the rise of passive & more. Enjoy!

    --

    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.


    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

    Follow Quinn: https://twitter.com/qthomp

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Surging Liquidity Is Fueling Higher Inflation | Bob Elliott May 01, 2024

    This week Bob Elliott joins the show post FOMC to discuss what is driving markets in 2024. We discuss why inflation remaisn too high, why the bond market needs to tighten financial conditions & what's driving the huge rally in Gold. Enjoy!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Huge Earnings Beat For Big Tech | Weekly Roundup Apr 27, 2024

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    --

    This week we discuss big tech earnings & the role of fiscal dominance on earnings growth. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.


    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Inflation Still Isn't Going Back To 2% | Vincent Deluard Apr 24, 2024

    This week Vincent Deluard returns to the show to discuss the most important topic in markets today... inflation. After joining the show in February 2023, Vincent was an early inflationista making the case that inflation would not return to 2%. Well, one year later that call has been correct as inflation remains elevated above the Fed's 2% target. The question is, what happens next? Enjoy!

    --

    Follow Vincent: https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:17) The Rise Of Secular Inflation

    (10:50) Mantra Ad

    (11:56) Geopolitical Risk, Oil & The Inflation Feedback Loop

    (16:43) The U.S Dollar Is Still The Best Safe Haven

    (21:21) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance: Gradually, Then Suddenly

    (26:08) The Inflation Spiral

    (35:39) Permissionless Ad

    (36:17) A Recession Free Future

    (42:18) Oil

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Bitcoin Halving Impact | Weekly Roundup Apr 20, 2024

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    --

    This week we discuss the macro forces driving markets, the 2024 Bitcoin halving and the path forward for inflation. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.


    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The 2024 Bitcoin Halving | Chris Kuiper Apr 17, 2024

    We apologize for video/audio lag in today's episode!

    --

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    This week Chris Kuiper Director of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets joins the show for an overview of the Bitcoin market as the 4 year halving approaches. We discuss the ETF impact, current state of the crypto market, the liquidity cycle & what to expect post halving. Enjoy!

    --

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    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:23) The Bitcoin ETF Impact

    (04:27) The Bitcoin Halving

    (13:06) Mantra Ad

    (14:12) Is Retail Back?

    (19:29) Volatility vs Store of Value

    (30:24) Permissionless Ad

    (31:02) Institutional Demand For Ethereum

    (46:02) The Macro Backdrop For Bitcoin

    (54:41) Where Are We In The Cycle?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Surprise Inflationary Wrecking Ball Hits Markets | Weekly Roundup Apr 13, 2024

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    --

    This week we discuss the hot inflation print which rocked markets. As the long end sold off, commodities continue drifting higher & rate cut expectations get pushed out could inflation be about to surprise markets? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Rising Liquidity Is Fueling A Bull Market In Gold & Bitcoin (Part 2/2) | Lyn Alden & Luke Gromen Apr 11, 2024

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    --

    This is part 2/2 of our conversation with Lyn Alden & Luke Gromen. In this episode we deep dive into the path forward for inflation, the U.S Dollar, bonds & what is fueling the gold & Bitcoin bull market. Enjoy!

    --

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    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    (00:00) Inflation

    (04:42) Oil & It's Impact On Inflation

    (11:41) The U.S Dollar

    (13:04) Mantra Ad

    (14:09) Gold & Bitcoin

    (24:28) The Bond Market

    (33:25) Permissionless Ad

    (34:03) Inflation vs Recession

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The U.S Debt End Game (Part 1/2) | Lyn Alden & Luke Gromen Apr 10, 2024

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    --

    This week Lyn Alden & Luke Gromen join the show to discuss the rise of fiscal dominance, the path forward for inflation & the end game for U.S debt. Part 2 of this discussion will be released tomorrow, so be sure to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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    --

    This episode is brought to you by Aura, the AI-powered digital security protection app that keeps your personal information, passwords, online activity, and tech safe from digital threats. It’s all-in-one protection from identity theft, financial fraud, malware, scams, and more.


    For a limited time, Aura is offering our listeners a 14-day FREE trial plus up to 55% off an Aura subscription. Visit https://aura.com/blockworks to sign up for your free trial.

    --

    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.


    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:10) Gold, Real Rates & Russian FX Reserve Sanctions

    (06:15) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance

    (16:08) Aura Ad

    (17:25) Kinto Ad

    (18:37) The Fed & Treasury End Game

    (22:22) Fiscal Deficits Don't Matter, Until They Do...

    (38:07) Permissionless III Ad

    (38:45) Deglobalization

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024? | Weekly Roundup Apr 06, 2024

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    --

    This week we discuss the potential headwinds for markets as the long end shows signs of selling off. Despite those headwinds, equities remain elevated with financial conditions loose. Will the Fed still be able to cut rates in 2024?

    --

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    --

    Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://bit.ly/3SnJI5r

    --

    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.


    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Past, Present and Future of Crypto | DAS London 2024 Apr 03, 2024

    This is a live panel taken from the 2024 Digital Asset Summit. Daniel Masters (CoinShares) & Jonathan Cheesman (Room 40 Capital) discuss the past, present & future of crypto. Enjoy!

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Inflation's Role In The Fourth Turning | Weekly Roundup Mar 30, 2024

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    --

    This week Tyler is back from Vegas! We discuss the path ahead for inflation, political influence in markets & Neil Howe's popularized fourth turning thesis. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    This episode is brought to you by Aura, the AI-powered digital security protection app that keeps your personal information, passwords, online activity, and tech safe from digital threats. It’s all-in-one protection from identity theft, financial fraud, malware, scams, and more.


    For a limited time, Aura is offering our listeners a 14-day FREE trial plus up to 55% off an Aura subscription. Visit https://aura.com/blockworks to sign up for your free trial.

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Trading the Next Crypto Bull Market | Avi Felman & Jonah Van Bourg Mar 29, 2024

    We gathered at DAS London to record the first ever live episode of 1000x. Mike, Avi & Jonah discuss where are we in the cycle, the ETF impact, Bitcoin's path to $100,000, is the alt L1 trade dead & of course meme coins.

    Be sure to go follow the 1000x podcast if you enjoyed this episode!

    --

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Perennial is an on-chain derivatives protocol built from first principles to be a DeFi primitive. The core protocol is minimalist, flexible, and efficient, allowing Perennial to mold to the needs of many different users & use cases.

    Perennial has a super efficient core protocol that lets LPs use native maker leverage — allowing $1mn in TVL to back to $5-10mn in Open interest. Trade and LP at: https://perennial.finance/1000x

    --

    Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://bit.ly/3SnJI5r

    --

    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.

    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x or On The Margin is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    The Game Changing Impact Of A Spot Bitcoin ETF | DAS London 2024 Mar 27, 2024

    This is a live panel taken from the 2024 Digital Asset Summit. Matt Hougan (Bitwise), Leon Marshall (Galaxy), Michael Sonnenshein (Grayscale) & Tony Ashraf (BlackRock) discuss the game changing impact of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Enjoy!

    --

    This episode is brought to you by Aura, the AI-powered digital security protection app that keeps your personal information, passwords, online activity, and tech safe from digital threats. It’s all-in-one protection from identity theft, financial fraud, malware, scams, and more.


    For a limited time, Aura is offering our listeners a 14-day FREE trial plus up to 55% off an Aura subscription. Visit https://aura.com/blockworks to sign up for your free trial.

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Follow Matt: https://twitter.com/Matt_Hougan

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Fed Signals Rate Cuts In 2024 | Weekly Roundup Mar 23, 2024

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    --

    This week we discuss Powell's dovish FOMC presser and the path forward for rate cuts in 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://bit.ly/3SnJI5r

    --

    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.


    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Biggest Macro Trade Of All-Time | Anthony Scaramucci & Dan Tapiero Mar 22, 2024

    This is a live panel taken from the 2024 Digital Asset Summit. Anthony Scaramucci & Dan Tapiero discuss the macro case for digital assets hosted by Noelle Acheson. Enjoy!


    https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

    --

    Follow Anthony: https://twitter.com/Scaramucci

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Script: How To Kill Inflation | Andy Constan Mar 20, 2024

    This week, Andy Constan Founder of Damped Spring joins the show for a discussion on what the Fed needs to do in their fight against inflation. As CPI prints continue to come in hot, financial conditions remain loose & markets melt-up, will the Fed be able to cut rates in 2024? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    This episode is brought to you by Aura, the AI-powered digital security protection app that keeps your personal information, passwords, online activity, and tech safe from digital threats. It’s all-in-one protection from identity theft, financial fraud, malware, scams, and more.


    For a limited time, Aura is offering our listeners a 14-day FREE trial plus up to 55% off an Aura subscription. Visit https://aura.com/blockworks to sign up for your free trial.

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Follow Andy: https://twitter.com/dampedspring

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    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:49) Inflation

    (06:38) Why Are Financial Conditions Loose?

    (14:51) Aura Ad

    (16:09) Mantra Ad

    (17:15) The Script: The Only Way To Kill Inflation

    (20:48) Stock Market Melt-Up

    (30:10) Is The Banking System Healthy, Or Not?

    (36:32) Looking Ahead To FOMC

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Inflation Remains High, Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024? | Weekly Roundup Mar 16, 2024

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    --

    This week we discuss the hot inflation prints (CPI, PPI) and their impact on markets. Will the Fed be able to cut rates with inflation remaining sticky & the economy still not showing meaningful signs of a slowdown. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    --

    Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://bit.ly/3SnJI5r

    --

    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.


    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Who Is Buying The Bitcoin ETFs? | Eric Balchunas & Jim Bianco Mar 13, 2024

    On today's episode Eric Balchunas & Jim Bianco join the show for a debate on the Bitcoin ETF impact. We discuss who is actually buying ETFs, whether Bitcoin ETF investors are passive flows vs hot money & does the ETF represent failure from the original promise of Bitcoin. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    This episode is brought to you by Aura, the AI-powered digital security protection app that keeps your personal information, passwords, online activity, and tech safe from digital threats. It’s all-in-one protection from identity theft, financial fraud, malware, scams, and more.


    For a limited time, Aura is offering our listeners a 14-day FREE trial plus up to 55% off an Aura subscription. Visit https://aura.com/blockworks to sign up for your free trial.

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

    Follow Eric: https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas

    Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch

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    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:30) Who Is Buying The Bitcoin ETF?

    (16:03) Aura ad

    (17:20) Mantra Ad

    (18:26) Cash Redemption vs In-Kind Transfer

    (28:38) The GBTC Outflows

    (33:05) Passive Flows vs Hot Money

    (43:01) Vanguard

    (51:45) Why Do Younger Generations Buy Crypto?

    (01:00:52) Does The ETF Represent Failure?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin Breaks A New All-Time High | Weekly Roundup Mar 09, 2024

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    This week we discuss the recent crypto market action as Bitcoin briefly crosses a new all-time high. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.


    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Bitcoin ETF Unlock's Huge Inflows | Dan Tapiero Mar 07, 2024

    This week, Dan Tapiero Founder of 10T Holdings joins the show for a discussion on the current Bitcoin, macro & crypto landscape as Bitcoin briefly crossed it's prior all-time high. We deep dive into the massive unlock approval of the Bitcoin ETFs create as inflows continue to climb higher. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    This episode is brought to you by Aura, the AI-powered digital security protection app that keeps your personal information, passwords, online activity, and tech safe from digital threats. It’s all-in-one protection from identity theft, financial fraud, malware, scams, and more.


    For a limited time, Aura is offering our listeners a 14-day FREE trial plus up to 55% off an Aura subscription. Visit https://aura.com/blockworks to sign up for your free trial.

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    Kinto is the Safety-first L2 designed to accelerate the transition to an on-chain financial system. It features user-owned KYC and native account abstraction to solve the biggest blockers to mainstream adoption: security and user experience.


    Kinto's launch program is onboarding institutional players and DeFi users before its public launch. If you believe in bridging the gap between TradFi and DeFi today, join Kinto's launch program at https://engen.kinto.xyz

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    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:21) Why Dan Was Bullish In 2022

    (12:32) Aura Ad

    (13:50) Kinto Ad

    (15:02) The Bitcoin ETF

    (21:02) Crypto's Path To $10 Trillion

    (29:38) 2024 Macro Update

    (48:06) Where Are We In The Cycle?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Bitcoin ETF Impact, Market Melt-Up Continues | Weekly Roundup Mar 02, 2024

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    Gm bulls! This week we discuss the positive price action within crypto, as markets broadly continue to melt-up. With Bitcoin ETF inflows remaining high, the economy running hot & investors taking on more risk, what happens next? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    A Deep Dive Into Coinbase's Earnings Beat | Alyssa Choo Feb 28, 2024

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    This week, Alyssa Choo Crypto Equities Specialist at Bitwise joins the show for a deep dive into some of the recent crypto equities earnings results. We discuss Coinbase's blowout earnings beat, the state of Bitcoin miners & the bullish tailwinds as crypto markets continue climbing higher. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

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    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:30) Coinbase

    (06:27) Coinbase's Global Expansion

    (09:23) Perpetual Futures

    (13:04) Mantra Ad

    (14:24) Coinbase's Revenue Breakdown

    (22:56) Bitcoin ETFs

    (24:59) FASB Accounting

    (27:34) DAS London Plug

    (28:50) Bitcoin Miners

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Stock Market Melt-Up Continues, Nvidia Earnings Beat | Weekly Roundup Feb 24, 2024

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    This week, Tyler Neville & Quinn Thompson join the show to discuss the continued rally in markets as Nvidia beat earnings expectations once again. We also discuss the current state of crypto markets, troubles looming in commercial real estate, Reddit's Bitcoin & Ethereum purchases & more!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin ETF Inflows Remain High, Coinbase Beat Earnings | Quinn Thompson Feb 21, 2024

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    This week, Quinn Thompson CIO at Lekker Research joins the show to discuss the bullish catalysts for crypto in 2024 as ETF inflows remain high, Coinbase beats earnings estimates & stock markets continue to reach new all time highs. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

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    Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london


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    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:29) Coinbase Earnings

    (17:37) MANTRA Ad

    (18:58) Bitcoin ETFs Update

    (22:55) The Bitcoin Halving

    (30:04) Are "Animal Spirits" Back?

    (36:34) DAS London Plug

    (37:50) The Ethereum ETF

    (45:50) The 2024 Macro Outlook

    (48:39) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Huge Bitcoin ETF Inflows, Coinbase Earnings Beat | Weekly Roundup Feb 17, 2024

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    --

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the continued Bitcoin ETF inflows as they surpass $4 billion and increasing each day. We then deep dive into the huge earnings beat from Coinbase & the path forward for 2024 as the Bitcoin halving approaches. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a...


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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Surviving The GBTC "Widowmaker" Trade That Blew Up In 2021 | David Choi Feb 14, 2024

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    This week, David Choi Founder of MetStreet Labs joins the show to discuss a viral thread he wrote on the GBTC "widowmaker" trade that blew up in 2021. We deep dive into the mechanics of the GBTC arbitrage trade, the role of Bitcoin lenders (BlockFi, Genesis) & how the unwind of the GBTC widowmaker trade dragged down the industry in 2021 - 2022.


    We then compare to todays market conditions and why 2024 & beyond may be a more sustainable market environment for crypto. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Read David's thread here: https://twitter.com/0xZergs/status/1746126672451993999?s=20

    --

    MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

    --

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    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:47) The GBTC Arbitrage Trade

    (08:44) Structure Of The Trade

    (15:24) BlockFi, Genesis & GBTC

    (19:18) MANTRA Ad

    (20:39) The Bitcoin Lending Market

    (23:11) When The GBTC Trade Started To Spiral

    (29:29) DAS London Plug

    (30:45) Unwinding The Trade

    (38:53) Current State Of The Market

    (46:10) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin ETF Inflows Continue | Weekly Roundup Feb 10, 2024

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    This week, Mike & Mark give an update on the Bitcoin ETFs as Grayscale outflows continue to slow down, as Bitcoin approaches $50,000 & stock markets continue to reach new record highs. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Bullish 2024 Thesis With Travis Kling Feb 07, 2024

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    This week, Travis Kling CIO of Ikigai Asset Management joins the show for a discussion on his bullish thesis for 2024.


    With Stock markets at all-time highs, a rate cutting cycle expected in 2024 & the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, Travis makes the case that he expects potential tailwinds into the coming year for both crypto & markets broadly. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london


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    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:37) Travis' 2024 Thesis

    (03:10) DAS London Plug

    (04:27) Stock Markets Break ATHs, What About Crypto?

    (14:05) The Bitcoin ETFs

    (20:54) Trading Crypto Cycles

    (26:07) Blockworks Research Ad

    (26:55) Financial Nihilism

    (39:26) Valuation & Reflexivity In Crypto

    (45:02) Infrastructure vs Applications

    (52:51) Can Crypto Disrupt Walled Gardens?

    (56:36) Travis' Macro Outlook In 2024

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF Outflows Begin To Slow, What Happens Next? Feb 03, 2024

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    This week, Mike & Mark give an update on the Bitcoin ETFs as Grayscale outflows begin to slow down. We then discuss this weeks FOMC, the QRA & Meta's blowout earnings. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Joseph Wang & Jack Farley on “Hawkish” January Fed Meeting, Tapering Quantitative Tightening (QT), and “Boring” Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) Jan 31, 2024

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

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    This week, Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro joins the show to discuss the latest in markets after Jerome Powell's FOMC conference.

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    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference"

    (07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices

    (10:04) Joseph's View on Rates

    (20:52) Vaneck Ad

    (21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money

    (32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement)

    (39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024

    (44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)

    (49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets

    (52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally

    (01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB)

    (01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!!

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Financial Conditions Remain Loose, Liquidity Has Surged | Mark Yusko Jan 27, 2024

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    This week, Mike & Mark discuss Tesla's disappointing earnings, the stock market rally as liquidity has resurged & the current state of the Bitcoin & crypto markets. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Stock Market Is Pricing In A Soft Landing | Darius Dale Jan 24, 2024

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    This week, Darius Dale Founder of 42 Macro joins the show for a discussion on the current state of asset markets.


    With the recession that never came to be, stock markets hovering around all time highs & Fed rate cuts in 2024, Darius makes the case that markets are pricing in goldilocks & a 2024 soft landing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:39) Markets Are Pricing Goldilocks

    (06:29) The Recession That Never Came To Be

    (10:55) DAS London Plug

    (12:11) 2024 Elections & Janet Yellen's Liquidity Supportive Impulse

    (15:25) The Highest Probability Is A Soft Landing In 2024

    (21:10) Inflation

    (27:06) Rate Cuts In 2024

    (30:10) Blockworks Research Ad

    (30:58) Oil

    (33:21) What Is Happening In China?

    (39:56) Bitcoin

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Bitcoin ETFs Attract Billions, Grayscale Outflows Continue Jan 20, 2024

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    This week, Mike & Mark discuss whether the Bitcoin ETFs were successful or not? Despite large flows into the Bitcoin ETF products, outflows from Grayscale's ETF have contributed to price declines post ETF launch. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin's Role In The Debt End Game | Jonah Van Bourg Jan 17, 2024

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    This week, Jonah Van Bourg Director at Onyx & Former Global Head of Trading at DRW joins the show for a discussion on his 2024 outlook for both commodity and crypto markets. We deep dive into Jonah's Bitcoin thesis, the U.S debt end game & the outlook for an Ethereum ETF in 2024 & beyond. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://bit.ly/3SnJI5r

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    Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a...


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    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (05:05) Trading Crypto & Commodities

    (14:03) Copper Ad

    (18:04) Macro Outlook In 2024

    (28:22) The Debt End Game

    (31:05) The Bitcoin ETFs

    (35:55) Das London Plug

    (37:12) The Bitcoin Thesis

    (44:53) The Crypto Thesis

    (48:54) Ethereum ETF

    (55:18) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Bitcoin ETFs Launch | Weekly Roundup Jan 13, 2024

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    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the first day of trading since the Bitcoin ETFs launched. We dive into the flows, volume traded & Vanguards decision to not allow trading of the ETFs on their platform. We then break down this weeks inflation data & what it could mean for the Fed in 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin ETF Is Approved.. For Real This Time Jan 11, 2024

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    Mark Yusko & Michael Anderson join the show for a livestream after the SEC’s approval of the Bitcoin ETF.

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Bitcoin ETF Is Approved | James Seyffart & Matt Hougan Jan 10, 2024

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    This week, James Seyffart ETF Research Analyst at Bloomberg & Matt Hougan CIO at Bitwise join the show to discuss the 2024 Bitcoin approval, the SEC hack & what to expect now Bitcoin ETFs are scheduled to begin trading.

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Bitcoin ETF: Bitcoin's Bullish Catalyst Jan 06, 2024

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    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the Bitcoin ETF ahead of an expected SEC decision next week. Mark makes the case that the Bitcoin ETF will unlock billions of dollars of capital from institutional investors who otherwise wouldn't have access to the asset. To hear all this & more, you'll have. to tune in!

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    Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount. Prices go up in January! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london


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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Jim Bianco's Big Predictions For 2024 Jan 03, 2024

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    This week, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research joins the show for a wide ranging discussion into macro, crypto & what investors should expect in 2024.


    We discuss how to adjust to the end of the 40 year bond bull market, whether the Bitcoin ETF is a positive or negative for the permissionless ethos of crypto & Jim's outlook for the year ahead. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    https://twitter.com/shekfu/status/1740523952362135662/photo/1


    Joseph Wang's Markets Outlook 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcU93QeV8X8

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    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:08) Reflecting On 2023

    (03:04) DAS London Plug

    (04:22) The End Of The 40 Year Bond Bull Market

    (11:44) Inflation & Real Rates In 2023

    (15:32) Jim's Outlook For 2024

    (27:28) Blockworks Research Ad

    (28:15) The Bitcoin ETF

    (52:19) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Mark Yusko's Big Calls For 2024 Dec 30, 2023

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    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the biggest events of 2023 & what to expect in 2024 for stocks, crypto & markets broadly. Thanks for tuning in throughout 2023, & we'll se you in the new year!

    --

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Big Calls For 2024 & Beyond | Will Clemente & Felix Jauvin Dec 27, 2023

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    This week, Will Clemente & Felix Jauvin of Reflexivity Research join the show for a discussion on the setup for both macro & crypto heading into 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Referenced In The Show:


    The Damped Spring Report: https://dampedspring.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/The-Script.pdf

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    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:35) Inflation & Rate Cuts In 2024

    (05:04) DAS London Plug

    (06:21) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance

    (09:38) Do Deficits Matter?

    (19:04) Bitcoin

    (24:17) Blockworks Research

    (25:05) Will We Ever See Another Bull Market Like 2020/21 Again?

    (30:24) Ethereum

    (34:13) Solana

    (39:05) Coinbase

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    How Will Stocks & Crypto Fare In 2024 Dec 23, 2023

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    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Everything You Need To Know About The Bitcoin ETF | Eric Balchunas Dec 20, 2023

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    This week Eric Balchunas Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg joins the show for a discussion on the Bitcoin ETF.


    Forecasting a 90% chance of approval in January, Eric walks through what gave him conviction in this prediction & the current things to look out for ahead of the SEC's decision. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    Referenced In The Show: Eric Balchunas – The Past, Present & Future of ETFs:

    https://open.spotify.com/episode/5vCLwJoKJ13PtCAFAadpFF?si=fb1b2ab9ba2b4ec3&nd=1&dlsi=1f29936becc3469d

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    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:49) What Is An ETF?

    (06:22) DAS London Plug

    (11:50) ETF Distribution

    (19:12) The Bitcoin ETF

    (26:00) Who Will Win The Bitcoin ETF Race?

    (29:53) Grayscale, GBTC & The ETF

    (35:16) Blockworks Research Ad

    (36:03) Bitcoin ETF vs The Gold ETF Launch

    (40:20) Crypto Sentiment

    (46:57) Will We See Other Crypto ETFs?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    2024 Fed Pivot Fueling The Everything Rally | Weekly Roundup Dec 16, 2023

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin ETF: A Positive Catalyst For Crypto's Reflexivity | Tim Grant Dec 13, 2023

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    This week, Tim Grant CEO of Deus X Capital joins the show for a discussion on where to find the best opportunities in crypto. We discuss Blackrock's ETF, the differences between web2 vs web3 business models & crypto's reflexivity as an asset class. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (06:00) Investing In Crypto

    (13:23) Web2 vs Web3

    (20:41) DAS London Plug

    (21:42) Reflexivity In Crypto

    (29:23) The Bitcoin ETF

    (39:52) Blockworks Research ad

    (40:40) The Best Opportunities In Crypto

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin, Stocks & Bonds Rally - Is It Sustainable? | Weekly Roundup Dec 09, 2023

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin Breaks $40,000, What Next? | Quinn Thompson Dec 06, 2023

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    On today’s episode, Quinn Thompson Head of Capital Markets & Growth at Maple Finance joins the show to discuss his Bitcoin outlook into 2024. We deep dive into the macro outlook for 2024, Bitcoins huge 2023 rally to $44,000 & the next crypto bull market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin Approaches $40,000 | Weekly Roundup Dec 02, 2023

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    This week Mike & Mark discuss the continued bull market as November saw a massive rally in stocks, bonds & crypto. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The "Debt Spiral" End Game | James Lavish Nov 29, 2023

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    On today’s episode, James Lavish Managing Partner at The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund joins the show to discuss his debt spiral thesis.


    With a "tsunami of debt" on the horizon, James walks through the end game for the unsustainable U.S fiscal path. We discuss the odds of recession in 2024, how to repair the debt problem & which assets will thrive in this environment. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/


    The Informationist: https://www.jameslavish.com/

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:46) A Recession Is Coming

    (06:07) DAS London Plug

    (07:25) There's A "Tsunami Of Debt" On The Horizon

    (12:17) The Debt Problem

    (26:03) Blockworks Research Ad

    (26:50) The Debt Spiral

    (33:36) The Debt Spiral End Game

    (39:06) Bitcoin

    (49:16) The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The U.S. Dollar Is Overvalued Nov 25, 2023

    Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and Marketreader Inc., returns to Forward Guidance to provide a quantitative update on currency and bond markets.


    Jens makes the case that interest rates all across the yield curve are likely headed lower as the Federal Reserve’s last hike is in the rearview mirror, and he argues that the U.S. dollar could depreciate against “risk-off” currencies such as the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and even gold. Filmed on November 22, 2023.

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    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:16) It's Been A Busy Year

    (02:36) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of U.S. Economy

    (13:13) Will There Be A Recession In 2024?

    (15:51) Jens' Bull Case For Rates

    (22:34) Fed Will Be "Much More Relaxed" If Services Inflation Continues To Moderate

    (27:56) Potential For "Big Cuts"

    (30:22) An Extraordinary Summer In FX

    (33:48) Jens' Bear Case For Dollar Against Gold and Risk-Off Currencies Such As Swiss Franc

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Liquidity Is Rising, "Tug Of War" Between Stocks & Bonds | Julian Brigden Nov 23, 2023

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    On today’s episode, Julian Brigden Co-Founder of MI2 Partners joins the show to reflect on the current state of markets as financial conditions loosen & markets price in a goldilocks environment, as they deem the Fed's inflation fight over.


    We discuss the path ahead for the Fed, the ongoing tug of war between stocks & bonds, the ripple effect of inflation & the structural bear market in the bond market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Rising Liquidity Is Supporting A Bull Market | Weekly Roundup Nov 18, 2023

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    --

    This week Mike & Mark discuss the inflation print which gave a further lift to equities over the week. Mark dives into the liquidity backdrop that is "driving markets" & what it means for the rest of 2023. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london


    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:52) DAS London

    (07:58) Inflation

    (18:56) The Debt Problem

    (25:47) Blockworks Research

    (26:34) Bitcoin

    (48:12) When Will The Fed Cut Rates?

    (54:05) Artificial Intelligence

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Fed's Stealth Liquidity Is Fueling A Stock Market Rally | Michael Howell Nov 15, 2023

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    --

    On today’s episode, Michael Howell CEO of CrossBorder Capital joins the show to share his outlook for the global liquidity cycle and what it means for markets throughout 2023 & into 2024.


    We deep dive into the mechanics of inflation, the impact of rising interest rate's on global refinancing, the reduced impact of QE from the Fed's shadow QE & the role of crypto & Gold in portfolios. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london


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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Stanley Druckenmiller & Paul Tudor Jones: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWccFlgaBxA

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:53) Liquidity Is Rising

    (05:01) The Path Ahead For Inflation In 2024

    (09:34) DAS London Plug

    (10:52) The Liquidity Spiral

    (14:48) The Impact Of Rising Interest Rate's

    (17:44) The Liquidity Cycle

    (21:38) The Fed's Shadow QE

    (25:13) The QRA Fueled A Huge Stock Market Rally

    (30:40) Blockworks Research Ad

    (31:28) The U.S Fiscal Outlook Will Cause The Fed's Balance Sheet To Rise

    (40:29) Gold & Crypto

    (42:40) Who Is The New Marginal Buyer Of U.S Debt?

    (48:49) Crypto As An Inflation Hedge

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin Bulls Are Back | Weekly Roundup Nov 11, 2023

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    --

    This week Mark & Mike discuss the continued positive price action in crypto as Bitcoin breaks $37,000. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (06:16) Bitcoin Breaks $37,000

    (17:19) FTX

    (27:07) DAS London Plug

    (28:25) All Eye's Are Still On The Bond Market

    (48:07) Blockworks Research Ad

    (48:55) Circle Plans A 2024 IPO

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Path To $100,000 Bitcoin | Adam Back Nov 08, 2023

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    --

    On today’s episode, Adam Back Co-Founder & CEO of Blockstream joins the show for a discussion on where we are in the Bitcoin cycle.


    We deep dive into the mechanics of the mining sector, developments in the lightning network, whether or not a Bitcoin ETF is good for the ethos of Bitcoin & finally why Adam believes Bitcoin under $100,000 is undervalued. To hear all this & more, you'll have. to tune in!

    --

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    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:36) Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks

    (05:42) Bitcoin & Bonds

    (07:49) Bitcoin ETF

    (11:54) DAS London Plug

    (13:12) Where Are We In The Bitcoin Cycle?

    (17:44) Bitcoin's Path To $100,000

    (20:17) Bitcoin Mining

    (37:02) Blockworks Research Ad

    (37:50) Does More Bitcoin Hashrate Equal More Security?

    (46:23) The Bitcoin Security Model

    (50:57) Bitcoin Ordinals

    (57:05) The Lightning Network

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Huge Rally In Stocks & Bonds, What Comes Next? | Weekly Roundup Nov 04, 2023

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    --

    This week Mark & Mike discuss the market rally in stocks & bonds after the U.S Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement (QRA).


    We also deep dive into Powell's FOMC meeting, the Nonfarm Payroll's data release & this weeks Coinbase earnings. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Andy Constan: Janet Yellen's Fueling A Massive Stock Market Rally Nov 03, 2023

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    --

    On today’s episode, Andy Constan Founder of Damped Spring & Co-Founder of 2 Gray Beards joins the show to disucss the recent QRA release from the U.S Treasury.


    As markets anticipated a higher amount of long end issuance, Andy turned bullish a few days ago when the numbers surprised to the downside & joins the show to explain exactly how he was able to catch this weeks risk on rally. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london


    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:44) Why Andy Wen't Long Risk Asset's Post QRA Announcement

    (06:40) Bills vs Bonds Issuance

    (11:41) Should The U.S Have Termed Out Their Debt?

    (15:46) DAS London Promo

    (17:04) Financial Conditions Have Massively Eased

    (21:44) We're Back To Act I In The Inflation Cycle

    (24:25) Blockworks Research Ad

    (25:13) The Consequences Of This QRA Are Being Felt

    (32:50) The Path Towards Recession

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Michael Kao on November Fed Meeting, Treasury Refunding, & Bond Market Bear Steepening Nov 01, 2023

    Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, returns to On The Margin alongside Forward Guidance host Jack Farley to break down the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) and Fed’s FOMC meeting that marked the first day of November.

    __

    Michael Kao’s article discussed in the show: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationoilgoldyield-curves-revisiting

    __

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    __

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    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bursting Of The Sovereign Debt Bubble | Arthur Hayes Nov 01, 2023

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    --

    On today’s episode, Arthur Hayes CIO at Maelstrom Fund joins the show to explore his current macro framework and how that will impact crypto for the rest of the year & into 2024.


    We discuss the bursting of the sovereign debt bubble as bonds continue one of their largest sell-off's in U.S history, the dreaded bear steepener and it's impact on bank balance sheets, market liquidity & how crypto can act as a safe haven during periods of financial repression, deleveraging & inflation. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Oil: The Making of the Modern World: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/167-oil-the-making-of-the-modern-world/id1537788786?i=1000555057140

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:38) The Debt Problem

    (05:43) The Dreaded Bear Steepener

    (10:56) Are U.S Banks In Trouble Again?

    (15:30) The Social Consequences Of Too Much Debt

    (20:19) DAS London Plug

    (21:36) Financial Repression

    (28:18) Trade Wars Are The Mirror Image Of Currency Wars

    (33:11) Blockworks Research

    (42:27) Bitcoin

    (43:15) The Crypto Bull Market

    (54:42) The Bitcoin Halving

    (56:05) Liquidity

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin Breaks $35k, The Next Bull Market's Here | Weekly Roundup Oct 28, 2023

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    --

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the recent price action in Bitcoin. As Bitcoin breached $30k, it quickly ran up to $35k as investors anticipated an eventual spot Bitcoin ETF. We also discuss the gamma squeeze that took place, the increasing participation of "hodlers" & the role of the halving. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london


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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Dr. Claudio Borio & Joseph Wang on Fiscal Dominance, Financial Instability & the Boundaries Of Debt-Fueled Economic Growth Oct 26, 2023

    This episode is from another of Blockworks' shows Forward Guidance. We hope you enjoy & remember to go follow Forward Guidance:

    Spotify: spoti.fi/46LGuNR

    Apple: apple.co/3hXQu2F

    --

    Today’s interview is a very special one. Dr. Claudio Borio, renowned economist and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), joins Joseph Wang of Fedguy.com and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of financial instability and the interplay of monetary policy and fiscal policy.


    Borio shares insight from recent BIS research on inflationary regimes, financial cycles, and the boundaries of debt-fueled growth. Borio notes that the materialization of interest rate risk has so far been seen in the banking sector, but that we have yet to credit risk. Filmed on October 17, 2023.

    --

    Some of Borio’s and the BIS’ works mentioned in this interview:


    “Monetary and fiscal policy: safeguarding stability and trust,” June 2023 Presentation in Basel, Switzerland, Claudio Borio

    https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp230625a_slides.pdf


    “The two-regime view of inflation,” March 2023, Claudio Borio, Marco Lombardi, James Yetman and Egon Zakrajšek

    https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap133.pdf


    “International banking and financial market developments” BIS Quarterly Review, September 2023

    https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2309.pdf


    “Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?” 26 January 2023, Claudio Borio, Boris Hofmann and Egon Zakrajšek

    https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull67.pdf


    “On money, debt, trust and central banking,” January 2019, Claudio Borio

    https://www.bis.org/publ/work763.pdf


    “Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?” November 2021, Claudio Borio

    https://www.bis.org/publ/work982.pdf


    “The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?” December 2012, Claudio Borio

    https://www.bis.org/publ/work395.pdf

    __

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    __

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:32) The Interplay Between Monetary Policy & Fiscal Policy

    (09:50) High Levels Of Government Indebtedness As A Risk

    (12:35) Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The Global Economy?

    (15:56) The Financial Cycle

    (24:12) The Two Inflationary Regimes

    (36:45) Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (Quantitative Easing & Quantitative Tightening)

    (39:34) Liquidity In Sovereign Bond Markets

    (46:13) Non-Bank Financial Sector Is "Rife With Hidden Leverage & Maturity Mismatches"

    (50:56) Interest Rate Risk Within Banking System

    (56:45) Concluding Thoughts On Debt & Inflation

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin Bounces To $30k, The Bond Sell-Off Continues | Weekly Roundup Oct 21, 2023

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    --

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the false Bitcoin ETF headline that sent Bitcoin soaring to $30,000, before diving into the broader crypto price action over the week. We then discuss the continued bond market sell-off that has lead to one of the worst bond bear markets in U.S history. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    An "Ocean Of Liquidity" Is Reversing | Neal Berger Oct 18, 2023

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    On today’s episode, Neal Berger Founder of Eagle’s View Capital Management joins the show for a discussion on navigating the uncertain year of 2023.


    After launching his contrarian macro fund in 2021, and posting some of the best hedge fund returns in 2022 of 163%, Neal describes how 2023 has been a "challenging year" as his fund remains short stocks & bonds. Expecting the bond market sell-off to continue, Neil shares the path ahead for the rest of 2023 & into 2024. To hear all this & more, you’ll have to tune in!

    --

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:40) 2023 Has Been Challenging

    (06:43) This Bond Market Sell-Off Isn't Over

    (11:12) Higher Interest Rates Are Negative For Stocks

    (14:12) Blockworks Research Ad

    (14:59) The Ocean Of Liquidity Is In Reverse

    (27:30) Looking Ahead To 2023/2024

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Inflation Has Peaked, Unless Oil Resurges | Weekly Roundup Oct 14, 2023

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    —

    This week Mike & Mark discuss the recent sentiment in crypto markets. We then dive into this weeks CPI print, the bond market & how recessionary headwinds could start to emerge in the coming months. To hear all this & more, you’ll have to tune in!

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    Digital Asset Summit 2024 | London: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bond Market Sell-Off Will Drive Equities Lower | Andy Constan & Nick Givanovic Oct 11, 2023

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    --

    On today’s episode, two hedge fund veterans Andy Constan & Nick Givanovic, Co-Founders of 2 Gray Beards join the show for a discussion on the recent bond market sell-off, the journey towards recession island in 2024 & the path ahead for equity weakness depending on the U.S Treasury's QRA at the end of October. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Logan’s speech is worth reading: the “why” of this recent bond selloff matters importantly for the Fed: https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1711371085889864063


    The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Michael Howell & Andy Constan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nZwrE_uNcg

    --

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    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:28) How To End An Inflation Cycle

    (06:43) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is Coming To Market

    (17:12) The Fed Will Be Happy With The Bond Market Sell-Off

    (19:43) Blockworks Research Ad

    (20:30) The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening

    (27:48) Debt & Deficits

    (35:11) Reacting To Geopolitical Uncertainty In Markets

    (41:33) Preparing For Act 4 In A Move To Recession Island

    (47:41) Inflation

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Global Wrecking Ball: Surging Yields, U.S Dollar & Oil | Weekly Roundup Oct 07, 2023

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    --

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the historic declines in the bond market with the long end sell-off continuing. We also discuss the blowout payrolls data, which under the surface may not be as hot as the headline suggests. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/01:15 Renewed Bond Bear Market

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (03:14) DAS London

    (06:11) Sell-Off In The Bond Market

    (11:24) Payrolls Come In Hot

    (18:54) The Global Wrecking Ball: Oil, U.S Dollar & U.S Yield's

    (24:36) Blockworks Research Ad

    (25:24) Beware Of FOMO

    (35:10) Diving Into The Payrolls Data

    (37:25) Are Equities About To Crack?

    (41:49) What Stops This Bond Market From Selling Off?

    (44:27) The BoJ Steps In To Curb Yen Losses

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    China's Old Economic Model Is Dying | Leland Miller Oct 04, 2023

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    On today’s episode, Leland Miller CEO of China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on the death of China's old economic model.


    With China's weaker than expected reopening & many expecting the imminent collapse of China, we invited Leland Miller to the show to give a data driven look into the Chinese economy, to help us understand what is really going on beneath the surface. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:31) Thing Aren't Great In China, But It Isn't Collapsing

    (10:20) China's Old Economic Model Is Dying

    (14:05) Xi Jinping's Push To "Common Prosperity"

    (20:59) Blockworks Research Ad

    (21:46) Inflation & Deflation In China

    (27:30) How China's Growth Impacts Market's

    (32:46) China's Rippling Inflation Impact

    (37:54) U.S & China Relations

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Next Phase Of The Bond Bear Market | Weekly Roundup Sep 30, 2023

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    --

    Mike and Mark tackle an explosive week of tremendous pain in the bond market alongside a continuing surge in oil prices. The pair consider the news surrounding potential Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, and Mark reminds listeners of his saying that "risk cannot be destroyed, it can only be transformed." Filmed on September 29, 2023.

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/01:15 Renewed Bond Bear Market

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:38) Renewed Bond Bear Market

    (11:57) Oil Surges Again

    (27:58) Blockworks Research Ad

    (28:45) Bitcoin & Ether ETFs

    (38:43) Sinister Saturday: Does Inflation Benefit The Elites?

    (51:28) "Risk Is Like Energy: You Cannot Destroy It, You Can Only Transform It"

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Is Goldilocks Going To End Soon? | Darius Dale Sep 27, 2023

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    Darius Dale, founder of 42Macro, returns to On The Margin to update Mike on his views on stocks, bonds, and the economy. Dale expects a true soft landing will be unlikely in the absence of a productivity boom, and, having correctly called the economic resiliency of the U.S. this year, he explains why he is now expecting a hard landing. Filmed on September 21, 2023.

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:38) The Fed's New Dot Plot

    (09:08) Darius's View On Interest Rates & Bond Yields

    (20:50) Blockworks Research Ad

    (21:37) The Sticky Inflation Narrative

    (30:04) Darius' Outlook on Stocks & Bonds

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    The Market Doubts The Fed | Weekly Roundup Sep 23, 2023

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:10) Fed Meeting

    (17:06) Foreign Holdings Of Treasurys

    (26:20) Blockworks Research Ad

    (27:07) Market Views On Stocks and Bonds

    (55:27) Crypto & Bitcoin

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Brent Johnson: “Heaven Help The World If Dollar Continues To Skyrocket” Sep 20, 2023

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    On today’s episode, Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital returns to On The Margin to share his view on the scorching summer rally in the U.S. dollar against other currencies. The surge in the dollar has been so fast and steady that Johnson expects a pullback, however, he warns that if the dollar continues to skyrocket then “heaven help the world.”

    --

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:43) Where Is The Dollar Headed?

    (11:59) Federal Reserve and Treasury Bond Prices

    (21:19) Blockworks Research Ad

    (22:07) Japan & China

    (38:00) Inflation and Interest Rates

    (44:20) Brent's Views on Recession Risk

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    A Second Bout Of Inflation, Or Disinflation? Sep 16, 2023

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    --

    This week, Mike & Mark reflect on Blockworks' very own Permissionless II conference down in Austin after a busy week of panels, networking & most of all... Texas BBQ! We then take a deep dive into this weeks inflation data. Should we expect a second bout of inflation, or is disinflation still the consensus view? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    A Wave Of Treasury Issuance Will Cause Bond Yields To Surge | Andy Constan & Bob Elliott Sep 13, 2023

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    On todays episode, Andy Constan Founder of Damped Spring Macro Research & Bob Elliot CIO at Unlimited Funds join the show for a discussion on the emerging signs of a recessionary slowdown, the wave of U.S treasury issuance & it's impact on the long end of the bond market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:11) Fading A Recession In 2023, But Are The Tides Turning?

    (10:55) Central Banks Have Capitulated On Their Inflation Fight

    (19:04) Blockworks Research Ad

    (19:51) Understanding The Bond Market Repricing

    (27:24) U.S Treasury Issuance Will Cause A Further Decline In Markets

    (31:50) Inflation

    (36:36) A Credit Crisis Is Unlikely

    (51:03) How Have Hedge Funds Performed In 2023?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bankruptcies Are On The Rise | Weekly Roundup Sep 09, 2023

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    This week Mike & Mark discuss the rise of bankruptcy filings in the U.S. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Interest Rate Shock Hasn't Been Felt Yet | Cameron Dawson Sep 06, 2023

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    On todays episode,Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth Cameron Dawson joins the show for a discussion on the impact of higher interest rates. We discuss the economy's sensitivity to higher interest rates, Powell's shift to being a hawk vs his career as a dove & what we can learn from the most recent earnings season. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Grayscale's Victory vs The SEC | Weekly Roundup Sep 02, 2023

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    This week Mike & Mark discuss Grayscale's victory vs the SEC and what it means for the approval of a Bitcoin ETF. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    A Bitcoin ETF Is Coming, It's Just A Matter Of When | Charles Edwards Aug 31, 2023

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    --

    On today's episode, Charles Edwards Founder of Capriole Investments, a Bitcoin & digital asset quant hedge fund joins the show for a discussion on the positive setup for Bitcoin heading into 2024.


    Charles walks us through the potential setup he sees for 2024 & beyond in the Bitcoin & crypto markets tracking a number of key indicators including on chain data, the Capriole macro index, Bitcoin's halving schedule, hash ribbons & the wave of liquidity Grayscale's win vs the SEC could introduce as investors await a full Bitcoin ETF approval. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:37) The Three Factor Model

    (03:53) The Relationship Between Liquidity & Bitcoin

    (06:35) The Bitcoin Halving

    (11:23) Permissionless Plug

    (12:34) Grayscale vs The SEC

    (18:05) Bitcoin's 10-Year Trajectory

    (24:48) $COIN & $MSTR: Understanding Demand For Crypto

    (30:48) Capriole’s Macro Index

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Zero Interest Rate Era Is Over, What Next? | Weekly Roundup Aug 26, 2023

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    —

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the slew of macro data over the past few weeks. We also deep dive into the sell-off in Bitcoin last week from $30,000 to $26,000, China's slowdown, the housing market & more! To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball In A China Shop | Michael Kao & Nick Glinsman Aug 23, 2023

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    --

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Michael Kao former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Nick Glinsman Co-Founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners join the show.


    With every recent headline revolving around China, we invite two China watchers to the show for a deep dive on China's debt problem, real estate headwinds & battle with outright deflation. We discuss the impact of the "U.S Dollar wrecking ball", which has being swinging in Asia, and what "trouble" lies ahead for the U.S treasury market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-geopoliticsinflationusd-ball-in


    USD/China - The Donkey Kong Dollar Peg: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-usdchina-the-donkey-kong-dollar


    Inflation/Real Estate - CRE Trends / The Strong US Consumer & The "Ivan Drago" Fed: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationreal-estate-cre-trends


    Mental Models-Destructive/Constructive Interference In Econ Cycles: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-mental-model-destructiveconstructive


    USD Wrecking Ball - Whither Art Thou?: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-usd-wrecking-ball-whither-art


    Inflation-The Case for Bear Steepening/Why The Fed Won’t Pivot Soon: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflation-the-case-for-bear-steepeningwhy


    Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1578888215494156289


    West Point Paper -- Part 1/4: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/west-point-paper-part-14?r=jt0hj

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:44) USD Wrecking Ball In A China Shop

    (11:05) China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over

    (26:13) Permissionless Ad

    (27:24) What's Causing The Bond Market Sell-Off?

    (36:56) Bull vs Bear Steepening: Making Sense Of The Yield Curve

    (44:40) Blockworks Research

    (45:27) Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames

    (58:06) The Sovereign Debt Endgame

    (01:04:21) China's Impending Minsky Moment

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Housing Market Downturn Isn't Over Aug 19, 2023

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    This week Mike is on holiday, so we bring you a special episode of Forward Guidance hosted by Jack Farley with Ivy Zelman Founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates.

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Fourth Turning: How Will It End? | Neil Howe Aug 16, 2023

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    --

    On todays episode Neil Howe, Author of The Fourth Turning & his latest book The Fourth Turning Is Here joins the show for a wide ranging discussion on the current generational cycle America finds itself in amidst the crisis phase of the fourth turning.


    We dive deep into understanding the origins of a fourth turning, the economic & societal cycles throughout history rebuilding institutions. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1982173734/


    The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0767900464/


    https://www.fourthturning.com/


    Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Bowling-Alone-Collapse-American-Community/dp/0743203046


    The Moral Equivalent of War: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbNFKgNoWc0

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    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:27) Origins Of The Fourth Turning

    (12:38) Research Ad

    (13:28) The Economic & Societal Cycles Throughout History

    (21:38) Rebuilding Institution's During A Fourth Turning

    (33:28) Permissionless II Ad

    (34:40) Internal vs External Conflict During A Fourth Turning

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    China Slides Into Deflation, What Happens Next? | Round Up Aug 12, 2023

    We apologise for audio issues on todays episode!

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    This week, Mike & Mark take a deep dive into July's inflation data. Despite inflation ticking up due to base effects, the trend across developed economies remains disinflation, while China finds itself battling outright deflation.


    How will China's economic slowdown impact the global economy & markets? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Blockworks Origin Story Aug 09, 2023

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    --

    This is a special episode taken from the Empire podcast hosted by Blockworks Co-Founder Jason Yanowitz, private investor Santiago Santos & Framework Ventures Co-Founder Michael Anderson.

    On todays episode we deep dive into the Blockworks origin story. We start at the very beginning in 2017, leading all the way through to 2023 & the ensuing 18 months ahead. We discuss the challenges of scaling a business, surviving March 2020, the evolving thesis for Blockworks' growth & trajectory and what it takes to build a great media business in the 21st century. To hear all this & more, you'll have. to tune in!

    --

    Follow Michael I: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz

    Follow Michael A: https://twitter.com/im_manderson

    Follow Santiago: https://twitter.com/santiagoroel

    Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    Use code MARGIN30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) The Blockworks Start

    (08:20) Entrepreneur Mindset Origination

    (11:42) Determining Product Categories

    (19:18) The March 2020 Pivot

    (24:12) Competitive Landscape

    (30:26) The Hiring Difference

    (34:36) Cycle Sentiment Check-in

    (39:24) Aligning Teams in Crypto

    (43:37) Target Audience

    (47:04) Permissionless

    (48:30) Evolving Thesis Approach

    (57:03) Narrative Pulse Check-in

    (01:00:02) Crypto's Killer App

    (01:02:38) Why Back Blockworks?

    (01:13:11) The Biggest Mistake

    (01:16:16) The DAO Thesis

    (01:23:12) Staying Interested Advice

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    The Bond Market Wrecking Ball Shocks Markets | Round Up Aug 05, 2023

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    --

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the volatile week in markets as the long end of the U.S bond market began selling off on Wednesday. We discuss the potential catalysts including increased treasury issuance, the BoJ's yield curve control tweak & Fitch's downgrade from AAA to AA+.


    Finally we walk through the highly anticipated earnings from Apple & Amazon, which saw mixed results leading to a bout of short term volatility in markets to end the week. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    —

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    —

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    —

    Use code MARGIN30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Prepare For A "Reckoning" In The Soft Landing Narrative | Jesse Felder Aug 02, 2023

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    —

    On todays episode Jesse Felder Founder of Felder Investment Research joins the show for a discussion on where we are in the current macro cycle and whether the second half of 2023 will be as robust as the first half of the year.


    Questioning the soft landing narrative, Jesse expects a deterioration in economic data in the coming months at a time when sentiment is as bullish as ever. We also discuss the current state of the U.S fiscal situation, the BoJ's surprise yield curve control tweak & the path ahead for the U.S Dollar. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    —

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    —

    Use code MARGIN30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:07) Where Are We In The Cycle?

    (07:37) Bear Market Rally, Or New Bull Market?

    (11:47) Permissionless II Ad

    (12:36) Sentiment & Valuations

    (16:58) "At Some Point The Bond Market Takes Away The Money Printer"

    (21:28) The Bank of Japan Surprises Markets

    (31:15) Research Ad

    (32:28) The Path Ahead For The Dollar

    (36:41) While Monetary Policy Tightens, Fiscal Continues Spending

    (38:45) Is The Inflation Fight Really Over?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The 2023 Bull Market Has Further To Run | Weekly Round Up Jul 29, 2023

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    —

    After many weeks apart, Mark & Mike reunite to discuss the top stories of the week. In the midst of earnings season, we take a look at the bull market of 2023 & discuss whether the rally has further to run, or not?


    We also discuss the FOMC meeting which saw the Fed hike 25bps to the highest level in 22 years. With all the positive U.S economic data being released, will the Fed be able to achieve it's desired soft landing? To hear Mark & Mike's outlook on earnings, FOMC & the path forward for the second half of 2023, you'll have to tune in!

    —

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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    —

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    —

    Use code MARGIN30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Balaji Srinivasan: Crypto Networks, Sovereignty & Decentralization with Akshay BD Jul 27, 2023

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    --

    This is a special episode of Lightspeed, Blockworks' newest podcast, where we interview Balaji Srinivasan and Akshay BD to discuss crypto networks, sovereignty and the practicality of decentralization. If you only tune in to one episode of Lightspeed, this is it. We discuss if crypto is a bet on tech or financial collapse, blockchain infrastructure ideologies, Balaji's Network State, how to build effective communities, the future of open source, combatting tribalism and more!


    We're dropping this episode here as we think you'll want to add Lightspeed to your podcast lineup!

    --

    Follow Balaji: https://twitter.com/balajis

    Follow Akshay: https://twitter.com/akshaybd

    Follow Mert: https://twitter.com/0xMert_

    Follow Garrett: https://twitter.com/GarrettHarper_

    Follow Lightspeed: https://twitter.com/Lightspeedpodhq


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Use code LIGHTSPEED30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (03:01) Is Crypto a Bet on Tech or Financial Collapse?

    (08:04) Appchains vs Monolithic vs Modular Ideology

    (13:07) Why Akshay Joined the Solana Community

    (15:54) Permissionless Promo

    (16:54) The Network State

    (31:21) Market Depth and the Overton Window

    (37:25) How to Build Effective Communities

    (43:43) Three Ways to Align People

    (50:11) How to Combat Tribalism

    (01:03:54) Crypto has PMF, Regulation is Holding it Back

    (01:14:57) Will Centralized Companies Embrace Open Source?

    (01:17:28) Advice for Startup Founders

    --

    Resources


    Jito

    jito.network


    The Network State

    https://thenetworkstate.com/


    The Network State (Balaji, Estonia 2015)

    https://teleport.org/blog/2015/07/the-network-state/


    Software is Reorganizing the World (Balaji, 2011)

    https://www.wired.com/2013/11/software-is-reorganizing-the-world-and-cloud-formations-could-lead-to-physical-nations/


    The Secret Document That Transformed China

    https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012/01/20/145360447/the-secret-document-that-transformed-china


    SuperTeam

    https://superteam.fun/

    https://twitter.com/SuperteamDAO


    - -

    Disclaimers:


    Lightspeed was kickstarted by a grant from the Solana Foundation.


    Nothing said on Lightspeed is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mert, Garrett and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    Powell Raises Rates To A 22-Year High, Is This The End? | Jim Bianco Jul 26, 2023

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    --

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show to break down Powell's comments after the Fed raises rates 25bps to a 22-year high. Will this rate hike mark the end of the Fed's hiking cycle, or could we see a resurgence in inflation as month over month base effects begin to impact the year over year headline CPI number. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Big Tech Bull Market, Not A Mania Yet | Round Up Jul 22, 2023

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    --

    With Mike & Mark out, Jack Farley of the Forward Guidance podcast joins Blockworks' very own newsletter writer Byron Gilliam for a wide raging discussion on the top stories of the week.


    With the recent Ripple vs SEC ruling, we discuss what impact this has for not only Ripple, but the crypto industry more broadly as many view this as a big win for the industry. We then dive deep into earnings with a number of companies reporting this week, and many more reporting next week. Will the big tech led bull run continue, or is this new bull market approaching a mania phase? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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    --

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Recession Paradox | Alfonso Peccatiello Jul 19, 2023

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    --

    Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023.

    --

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    The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN

    --

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    --

    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

    https://rb.gy/5weeyw


    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:33) The Recession That Didn't Show Up

    (11:48) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability?

    (20:33) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate

    (30:12) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits

    (39:13) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending

    (47:20) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending

    (50:37) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No!

    (01:02:01) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen?

    (01:07:51) When Recession?

    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Recession Cancelled: Crypto Summer Is Here | Weekly Round-up Jul 15, 2023

    With Mike out, Jack Farley of the Forward Guidance podcast fills in to guest-host this episode. Mark and Jack talk about everything from the Knights Templar to the potential approval of Blackrock's spot Bitcoin ETF.

    --

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    --

    Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:

    https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Central Banks Fight Inflation, China Battles Deflation | Nick Glinsman Jul 12, 2023

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    --

    On todays episode Nick Glinsman Co-Founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners joins the show for a discussion on the current global macro outlook in 2023 as we enter the second half of the year.


    While central banks continue to fight fiscal driven inflation using monetary policy, Nick argues that financial conditions are still too loose as markets continue to rally, credit remains contained & most importantly the labor market remains near record low unemployment. After taking us on a global tour of the inflation situation in the U.S, U.K & Europe Nick shares why China is actually battling deflation, and what the path ahead for the PBOC could look like. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

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    --

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Malmgren Institute LLC: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:33) The Labour Market Remains Strong... For Now

    (09:53) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity

    (15:09) Permissionless II Ad

    (15:58) The Fed's Stuck Between A Rock & A Hard Place

    (16:40) An Update On The March Banking Turmoil

    (22:00) The Power Of Fiscal Policy

    (23:54) Debt, Demographics & Deglobalization

    (28:57) Is The UK Economy In Crisis?

    (38:35) Research Ad

    (39:24) Further Risks For Private Equity?

    (41:04) Why Is China Battling Deflation

    (51:44) Is China's Liquidity Impulse Really Stimulative?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Is A "Big Deal", Here's Why | Round Up Jul 08, 2023

    This week, Mark returns to the weekly roundup after a two week hiatus! We dive straight into the biggest story of the week as Larry Fink took to the airwaves with a switched stance on Bitcoin weeks after BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, filed for their highly anticipated spot Bitcoin ETF. We discuss the implications of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved, and in Mark's own words, it would be a "big big deal". To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The End Game For Central Banks Inflation Fight | Lyn Alden Jul 05, 2023

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    --

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins the show for a discussion on the biggest driver of markets over the past 3 years... inflation.


    Early to the inflation call in 2020/2021, Lyn walks through both the cyclical vs structural outlook for inflation in 2023 & beyond. Lyn walks through the rise of fiscal dominance and attempts to answer the question will high interest rates fix high inflation? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

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    --

    Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Do High Interest Rates Fix High Inflation? https://www.lynalden.com/inflation-vs-interest-rates/

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:50) Inflation

    (06:18) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance

    (13:14) Cyclical vs Secular Inflation

    (15:33) Permissionless II Ad

    (16:21) Inflation Today vs The 1940's

    (28:14) Research Ad

    (29:04) What Is The End Game?

    (36:55) Investing In This Environment

    (41:42) Housing & Real Estate

    (45:57) How Changing Technology Drove The Evolution Of Money

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Will The Fed Get Their Soft Landing? | Weekly Round Up Jul 01, 2023

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    __

    This week, as Mark continues his tour around Europe, Jack Farley host of the Forward Guidance podcast joins the show to discus the top stories of the week. As economic data & growth remains resilient, markets continue rallying despite negative sentiment coming into the year. We discuss whats in store for the second half of the year & whether the Fed will get their soft landing?

    —

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

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    —

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    —

    Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Veteran Money Manager On A.I's Disruptive Innovation | Jordi Visser Jun 28, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Jordi Visser a veteran money manager & currently President and CIO, Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers joins the show for a discussion on the disruptive technologies changing the investing landscape in 2023.


    With the release of ChatGPT in 2022, a tidal wave of investment & excitement has resurged around the promise of A.I. In this episode, Jordi walks through the opportunities this technology can provide in 2023 & beyond. To hear how Jordi approaches investing in disruptive technology, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/McKinsey%20Digital/Our%20Insights/Disruptive%20technologies/MGI_Disruptive_technologies_Executive_summary_May2013.pdf

    --

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:52) Inflation, Technology & The Macro Cycle

    (02:21) We're Entering A Productivity Boom

    (05:18) Artificial Intelligence

    (09:08) Permissionless II Ad

    (09:56) Investing In Disruptive Technology

    (19:12) The Effect Of A.I's "Disruptive Innovation"

    (24:15) Crypto

    (31:00) Is Crypto A New Nation State?

    (35:52) Research Ad

    (36:41) Where Are We In The Market Cycle?

    (45:20) Recession Fears Are Overblown

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Return Of The Bull Market? | Weekly Round Up Jun 24, 2023

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    __

    This week, Jack Farley host of the Forward Guidance podcast joins the show for a discussion on the biggest stories of the week.


    With Bitcoin breaking past $30,000, equity indices reaching new bull market territory and many speculating that the Fed has finished hiking, we walk through the liquidity backdrop and if we are entering a new bull market, or not? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

    —

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Fed Won't Come To The Rescue Anytime Soon | George Goncalves Jun 21, 2023

    On todays episode of On The Margin George Goncalves MUFG's Head Of Macro Strategy joins the show for a discussion on the outlook for H2 2023.


    Reflecting on the Fed's quest to fight inflation amidst their fastest hiking cycle in recent history, George outlines why the economy has remained resilient thus far, and how leading indicators are pointing to a further deceleration in the second half of 2023. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!


    To view George's slide deck mentioned in the episode, head over to the Blockworks Macro YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@BlockworksHQ

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Is Global Liquidity Beginning To Resurge? | Weekly Round Up Jun 17, 2023

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the busy news week beginning with the Fed's decision to pause rate hikes, leading many to believe this could be the end of the hiking cycle despite Powell's comments that “nearly all committee participants expect it will be appropriate to raise towards the end of the year”.


    We then discuss the global liquidity picture as China hints at more stimulus, the Fed pauses & markets continue ripping higher. Finally, we take a look at Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF filing and wether this will be a net benefit or negative for the crypto space. To. hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Did The Federal Reserve Just Back Down? | Joseph Wang Jun 14, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Gensler Cracks Down On Coinbase & Binance, What Next? | Weekly Round Up Jun 10, 2023

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the SEC lawsuits against Coinbase & Binance, what this means for exchanges & the U.S crypto industry going forward. We break down the nuances between the two different lawsuits and the separate allegations brought to the two titans in the crypto industry. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Markets Are Signalling A Recession Is Imminent | Eric Basmajian Jun 07, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Eric Basmajian Founder of EPB Research joins the show for a discussion on the business cycle slowdown that suggests a "recession is imminent". With Eric's research following leading, cyclical and lagging indicators, he manages to keep a pulse on the current economic environment and its ultimate impact on markets. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:37) A Recession Is Imminent

    (05:37) Housing Is The Business Cycle

    (13:46) Permissionless II Ad

    (14:34) Markets Are Stuck In Limbo

    (24:26) What Will Cause Something To Break?

    (31:56) Is The Unemployment Rate A Good Barometer Of A Recession?

    (44:03) Research Ad

    (44:53) The Fed's Outlook: What Should They Do vs What Will They Do

    (51:24) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Effects Of Fed Tightening Are Emerging | Weekly Round Up Jun 03, 2023

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the emerging effects of the Fed's tightening, before diving into the current state of markets. With big tech carrying the index higher, Mark breaks down the current market breadth & how it signals an unhealthy market condition. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin's Solution To "The Inflation Paradox" | Jeff Booth May 31, 2023

    On todays episode of On The Margin Jeff booth Entrepreneur, Author of The Price of Tomorrow & General Partner at Ego Death Capital joins the show for a discussion on the exponential growth of A.I.


    With his background in technology, Jeff walks through the threat of A.I within our current economic system and how Bitcoin could be a solution to "the inflation paradox". To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:17) The $400 Trillion Debt Problem

    (07:52) The S&P 495 vs A.I

    (10:43) Permissionless II Ad

    (11:31) The Exponential Growth Of A.I

    (20:47) The Push & Pull Between Calm & Crisis

    (24:35) The Overton Window Of Money Printing

    (30:21) Research Ad

    (31:11) The Future is Already Here, it's Just Not Very Evenly Distributed

    (39:10) The Bitcoin Thesis

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    What's The Global Liquidity Picture Signaling | Weekly Round Up May 27, 2023

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the global liquidity picture and if the Fed hiking cycle is over as optimism emerges within markets. We also go on to discuss the major rally & other A.I related equities as Nvidia beat on their recent earnings release. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    U.S Dollar & Energy's Role In The "Debt Death Spiral" End Game | Luke Gromen May 24, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Luke Gromen Founder & President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) joins the show for a discussion on the end game for the Fed.


    After highlighting many of the structural shifts underpinning the current monetary system over the past few years, Luke lays out his thesis on the intersection between peak cheap energy and the U.S dollar system. Luke goes on to walk through how the Fed will be forced to manage these dynamics with inflation above trend and record high debt to GDP levels. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:15) Have We Reached Peak Cheap Energy?

    (07:58) Permissionless II Ad

    (08:46) Oil Is The Real Economic Discount Rate

    (13:06) Central Banks Have Stoped Buying U.S Treasurys

    (19:03) What's The End Game For The Fed?

    (27:38) Why The U.S Is Not Like Japan

    (32:12) Research Ad

    (33:02) Luke's Macro Outlook For 2023

    (40:29) Approaching A "Debt Death Spiral"

    (42:44) Gold & Bitcoin

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Debt Ceiling Looms, What Next? | Weekly Round Up May 20, 2023

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the outlook for markets at a moment of uncertainty for both bulls & bears. With the U.S debt ceiling looming, consensus still expecting a recession & the market beginning to price a pause in the Fed's tightening cycle, Mark shares his outlook throughout the rest of the year. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    A Recession Is Unavoidable | Mike McGlone May 17, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike McGlone Senior Macro Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence joins the show for a discussion on the looming debt ceiling, why deflation (not inflation) is ahead and his outlook for both commodities & hard asset's, such as Gold & Bitcoin.


    Expecting a recession in 2023, Mike walks through the global slowdown taking place, and shares insights into how the commodity markets are signalling declining liquidity & recessionary headwinds. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Referenced In The Show:


    Sohn 2023 | Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMAm2S1M_IU

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    Timestamps


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:17) The Debt Ceiling Looms, What Next?

    (05:41) We Are Heading Towards Deflation

    (09:30) Mike's Outlook On Markets

    (14:28) Have Higher Interest Rates Been Felt Yet?

    (19:11) Research Ad

    (20:00) The Gold Bull Market Is Here

    (23:49) Is De-Dollarization Real?

    (30:18) Why Are Hedge Funds Record Short Treasury Bonds?

    (32:09) Deflation Deflation Deflation... "We're All Turning Japanese"

    (35:48) Permissionless II Ad

    (36:36) Is There A Structural Case For Inflation?

    (45:00) Mike's Macro Framework

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Have Rising Interest Rates Been Felt Yet? | Weekly Round Up May 13, 2023

    This week Mike & Mark discuss wether the effect of rising interest rates have really been felt yet, this weeks CPI print and why we should prepare for deflation throughout 2023, not inflation. As inflation continues on it's downward trajectory, how will this impact the Fed's reaction function, the economy & markets? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Referenced In The Show:


    Sohn 2023 | Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMAm2S1M_IU

    Where Are We In The Macro Cycle? | Bob Elliott & Cameron Dawson: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4u5-GMkoiM&t=584s

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Meme Mania: Why You Should Pay Attention | 1000x May 11, 2023

    SPECIAL EPISODE: This is an episode of Blockworks' new podcast called 1000x! 1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg that is for traders by traders (or anyone interested in trading/markets).

    In this episode, Avi and Jonah discuss Bitcoin's outlook and recent meme coin mania. We start with a discussion on Bitcoin and if bank failures are priced in, what it will take for BTC to break past the 30K range and if institutions are buying. Avi and Jonah then debate if we'll ever see 2021s perfect storm again. Meme coins are pumping, blockspace demand is saturated, and market sentiment is shifting. Is this a market turning point or just a short-term phenomenon? Tune in to find out!

    We'll drop a new 1000x episode on Empire's RSS feed and the 1000x YouTube channel every two weeks. Hit the links below and give us a follow!

    - -

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:32) Are Bank Failures Priced In?

    (07:31) The Impact of a Potential US Default

    (12:51) Repeating 2021’s Perfect Storm

    (18:03) Meme Mania: Why You Should Pay Attention

    (31:30) Deflationary ETH and Blockspace Fee Generation

    (36:34) BTC Miner Revenue and BRC-20s

    - -

    Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman

    Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz

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    Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3FuSarX

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    Resources:

    Golden Tree

    https://www.goldentree.com/


    Cumberland

    https://cumberland.io/


    BRC-20.io

    https://brc-20.io/

    - -

    Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    Where Are We In The Macro Cycle? | Bob Elliott & Cameron Dawson May 10, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Bob Elliott Co-Founder & CIO at Unlimited Funds & Cameron Dawson CIO at NewEdge Wealth join the show for a discussion on where are we in the current macro cycle.


    On the back of a better than expected earnings week, continued banking turmoil and a perceived hawkish FOMC meeting, Bob and Cameron share their thoughts on the path ahead for 2023 as the tightening cycle has yet to fully ripple through the economy and markets. Expecting "more pain to come", Bob and Cameron see the market correction and recession concerns to be immaterial... so far. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Referenced In The Show:


    https://twitter.com/LizYoungStrat/status/1654509470720950273

    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:42) The Bond Market Is The Smart Money, Or Is It?

    (05:06) The Have Your Cake & Eat It Too Trade... Tech

    (10:51) Research Ad

    (11:04) Inflation Is A New Dynamic For Markets

    (14:01) Can The Fed Continue Raising Rates Amidst Banking Turmoil?

    (17:40) There Won't Be A Pivot Without Some Pain

    (27:44) Permissionless

    (28:28) Breaking Down Recent Earnings

    (35:33) The A.I Earnings Theme

    (44:22) What To Expect Throughout 2023

    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Collapse Of First Republic Bank, What Happens Next? | Weekly Round Up May 06, 2023

    This week Mike & Mark discuss the collapse of First Republic Bank and the subsequent acquisition by JP Morgan. Even with an FOMC meeting where the Fed raised an expected 25bp, regional bank headwinds remained the focus as certain bank equities fell sharply and First Republic Bank was acquired in a very favourable deal between the FDIC & JP Morgan. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Bull Market In Hard Assets | Jan Van Eck May 03, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Jan Van Eck CEO of VanEck joins the show for a discussion on the "new paradigm" markets find themselves in and how this could be a catalyst for a bull market in hard assets.


    As investors tackle inflation, rising rates and structural demographic shifts in 2023, Jan explores how investors can approach diversifying their portfolios. With Bitcoin rallying 70%+ and Gold boasting a 13%+ return year to date, are we in a new bull market for safe haven hard assets? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:14) The Origins of Van Eck

    (05:21) Re-thinking The Banking System

    (12:47) Blockworks Research

    (13:36) A New Paradigm For Markets

    (20:48) Now Is The Time To Own Gold & Bitcoin

    (23:39) Is De-dollarization Real

    (29:27) Permissionless

    (30:10) Entering A Hard Asset Bull Market

    (36:32) Key Themes For The Decade Ahead

    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Banking Panic Isn't Over Yet | Weekly Round Up Apr 29, 2023

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the continued banking panic after First Republic Bank lost around $100 Billion in deposits & saw its stock plunge over 95%. We then discuss the recent price action in the crypto market with Bitcoin hovering around $30,000 as some OG crypto whales begin moving coins in addresses that haven't seen activity in years. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Incoming Recession Is A 2023 Story | David Rosenberg Apr 26, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show for a discussion on the mounting recessionary headwinds that signal towards a recession in the second half of 2023. Arguing that "a recession is a 2023 story", David walks through the leading indicators that suggest a slowdown could be on the very near horizon. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    An Update On The "March Banking Panic" | Weekly Round Up Apr 22, 2023

    This week, Jack Farley host of the Forward Guidance podcast joins the show to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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    Progressing Through The Credit Tightening Cycle | Julian Brigden Apr 19, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Julian Brigden Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners joins the show to discuss the process of tightening credit in the banking system and what it will mean for the economy and markets. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    The "Wave Of Global Liquidity" Driving Markets Higher | Weekly Round Up Apr 15, 2023

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the "global wave of liquidity" that has hit markets in recent months. Mark states that China, Japan & the U.S have all contributed to the positive liquidity backdrop which has seen stocks and crypto aggressively rally. We also discuss the recent U.S inflation numbers, what this means for markets & the economy in the coming months. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    The Fed Hikes Until Something Breaks, Something Broke | Jim Bianco Apr 08, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins the show to discuss the fallout of SVB's collapse, and the turmoil that ensued in the banking system. Arguing that rates are currently too high for banks, how will the Fed be forced to react whilst managing both financial stability and inflation. To find out, you'll have to tune in!

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    Markets Are Trapped In A "Liquidity Limbo" | Jurrien Timmer Apr 05, 2023

    To view the charts discussed in today's episode, head over to our YouTube here: https://youtu.be/d04D0_WjqEg

    --

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity joins the show for a discussion on the current "liquidity limbo" markets find themselves in. Bulls expect recessionary pressures to abide, rate hikes to turn into cuts and financial conditions to loosen whilst the bears foresee an earnings decline, more Fed tightening and a continued tightening of financial conditions.

    Jurrien walks through both the bull and bear case for markets, drawing on his recent research and enlightening chart deck which help provide visual aid to both sides of the argument. Who will be proven right in 2023: the bulls or the bears? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

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    Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/onthemargin


    *26-week T-bill rate (as of 5/4/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees.

    **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22).

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    A Liquidity Masterclass: Preparing For A Credit Cycle Downturn | Darius Dale Apr 01, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin, we welcome Darius Dale Founder & CEO of 42 Macro back to the show to discuss the recent liquidity measures in response to the banking turmoil over the past few weeks.


    With Markets rallying and investors piling back into the best performing asset's of the past two years, Darius urges caution. While the banking scare of recent weeks doesn't resemble 2008, "don't be a hero". Darius walks through the current liquidity cycle and describes how that could quickly lead to a shift in the credit cycle. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Next Stage Of The Banking Crisis, Commercial Real Estate Mar 29, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin, we sit down with James Davolos Portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics and Sholom Jacobs CEO and founder of Jacobs Real Estate Advisors for a discussion on commercial real estate and it's impact on the continued turmoil in the banking sector.


    With 70% of commercial real estate loans being supplied by small sized regional banks, how will low occupancy levels, higher interest rates and deposit flight to global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) impact the almost $20 trillion commercial real estate market? Is the collapse of SVB enough to cause a cascading "crisis of confidence" across the sector? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Will Bank Turmoil Cause The Fed Pivot? | Weekly Round Up Mar 25, 2023

    After another week of continued turmoil across the banking sector, Mike and Mark discuss the "crisis of confidence" that is spreading across the banking system. With Deutsche Bank coming into the spotlight towards the end of the week, are the headlines overblown, or could further issues lie ahead for European banks? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Can The Fed Keep Raising Rates Amidst A Banking Crisis? | Michael Howell Mar 22, 2023

    On today's episode of On The Margin, we sit down with Michael Howell Managing Director at Cross Border Capita to discuss the most recent FOMC meeting. With a backdrop of banking turmoil, historic bond market volatility and above target inflation, how will Powell react to the recent market action? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bank's Face A Crisis Of Confidence | Weekly Round Up Mar 18, 2023

    After another week of continued turmoil across the banking sector, Mike and Mark discuss the developing fallout since Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. This week, Credit Suisse faced record outflows, resulting in a $54 Billion loan from the Swiss National Bank as the bank faces a "crisis of confidence". To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Collapse of SVB, Silvergate & Signature Bank | Caitlin Long and Nic Carter Mar 17, 2023

    On today's episode of On the Margin, Caitlin Long Founder & CEO at Custodia Bank & Nic Carter Founding Partner at Castle Island Ventures join the show to discuss the recent banking turmoil with the collapse of Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank which led to the closure of Signature Bank over the weekend. Interest rate risk in HTM portfolios was the key driver of the recent bank runs we have seen, but how have they reverberated all around the world?


    We then discuss the political backlash crypto banks have received as a consequence of the bank crisis and whether this could be an operation chokepoint 2.0 scenario, something Nic has been writing about for many months. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Markets Look Past Silicon Valley Bank's Collapse | Weston Nakamura Mar 16, 2023

    Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U

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    On today's episode of On the Margin, Weston Nakamura, the latest addition to the Blockworks team joins the show to discuss his brand new podcast Market Depth! You can follow the links above to listen to the first episode of Market Depth.


    Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Mike and Weston discuss the market reaction and subsequent historic moves in the bond market, which saw the largest decline in the 2Y treasury yield since 1982. We also discuss broader implications on global markets, the BoJ's passing of the guard as Kuroda leaves office and how markets have seemingly shrugged off the SVB collapse. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Governor Kuroda: The Decade’s Most Consequential Central Banker Mar 16, 2023

    This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes!


    Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Largest Bank Failure Since 2008 | Weekly Round Up Mar 11, 2023

    This week, after a week of turmoil across the banking industry, Mike & Mark discuss the collapse of Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank. With fears mounting over the mark to market value of bank's asset's, we walk through the dynamics which led to depositors running for the exit doors in typical bank run style fashion.


    What lies ahead for the banking industry from here? Will contagion spread like in 2008, or are banks much better capitalised to weather the storm in 2023? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!


    Filmed Friday 10th March hours before the closing of Silicon Valley Bank.

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    The China Reopening: A Tale of Two Stories | Shehzad Qazi Mar 08, 2023

    On today's episode of On the Margin, Shehzad Qazi Managing Director at China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical and secular outlook for the Chinese economy.


    As China has announced their full reopening, Shehzad is able to walk through the data China beige Book has been able to collect throughout January and February. Expecting a positive year for China, Shehzad walks through both the cyclical and more structural slower growth environment China will experience over the coming decade due to Xi Jinping's new focus on "common prosperity", as appose to growth at all costs. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/onthemargin


    *26-week T-bill rate (as of 3/8/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees.

    **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22).

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:27) The Chinese Lockdown of 2022

    (02:17) China In 2023: A Tale of Two Stories

    (07:30) The Chinese Credit Impulse

    (10:03) Public Ad

    (11:26) The Chinese Banking System

    (16:13) The Reopening's Impact On Commodities

    (19:25) Will The Reopening In China Spur Inflation?

    (24:57) U.S & China In The Great Power Competition

    (36:08) China's Demographic Decline

    (40:20) A New Paradigm Over The Next Decade

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Breaking Down Warren Buffett's 2023 Shareholder Letter | Yun Li Mar 04, 2023

    This week, as Mark takes some well deserved time off, we combine forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance.


    As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Referenced In The Show:


    To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Powell's Job Isn't Done Yet | Cameron Dawson Mar 01, 2023

    On today's episode of On the Margin, Cameron Dawson CIO at NewEdge Wealth joins the show for a discussion on the path ahead for the Fed, the outlook for earnings and a potential new regime for markets as certain inflation data begins reaccelerating.


    We also take a look at some of America's great recessions and discuss wether or not they provide good comparisons to 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Disequilibrium How America's Great Inflation Led to the Great Recession: https://books.apple.com/us/book/disequilibrium/id1183616897


    Running Up That Hill: Confronting Earnings Hills: https://www.newedgewealth.com/running-up-that-hill/

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:43) Hard Landing, Soft Landing Or No Landing?

    (02:57) The Fed's Job Isn't Over Yet

    (11:13) The Bond Market Scores A D-

    (13:36) Blockworks Research

    (14:26) Looking Back At America's Great Recessions

    (28:27) How The QE Era Differs From QT Now

    (32:06) The Median Voter Theorem

    (36:25) Permissionless 2023

    (37:10) Running Up That Hill: Confronting Earnings Hills

    (44:52) The Bull, Bear & Neutral Case For Earnings

    (52:46) A New Regime For Markets?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Coinbase Launches Their Own Layer-2 | Weekly Round Up Feb 25, 2023

    This week, Mike & Mark begin by discussing the Coinbase Q4 earnings which saw an additional $30 million in revenue than analysts had expected. We break down the balance sheet and compare Coinbase's revenue when operating in bull & bear markets.


    We then move on to Coinbase's layer-2 announcement, Base. Could this signal a turning point amid crypto winter and how will this impact the crypto developer ecosystem. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Inflation's Role In The Fourth Turning | Vincent Deluard Feb 22, 2023

    On today's episode of On the Margin, Vincent Deluard Director of Global Macro at StoneX joins the show for a discussion on the rise of secular inflation.


    Being early to the inflation call, Vincent walks through the dynamics that allowed him to spot the rise of inflation, and how it will impact the next decade and beyond. We then dive into the role of inflation during a fourth turning and how this could shift the balance back to labor, contrary to the rise of capital during "the great disinflation. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Clip: Sir James Goldsmith Presciently Explaining Globalization in 1994: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKe38mVpHgk

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:55) Why Is 2023 Data So Strong?

    (05:28) Turns Out... Europe Didn't Freeze

    (10:19) Liquidity vs The Economy

    (13:00) Blockworks Research

    (14:33) Becoming An Early Inflationista

    (21:47) Inflation Is The Solution

    (30:46) The End of Secular Disinflation

    (35:33) Permissionless 2023

    (36:17) The Fourth Turning

    (40:53) The Key To Inflation Is Trust

    (44:19) Preparing For The Coming Decade Amid Secular Inflation

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Inflation Debate Rages On | Weekly Round Up Feb 18, 2023

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the outlook for inflation in 2023. On the back of a 6.4% YoY CPI, could inflation remain sticky, or will the year ahead be met with a sharp decline in inflation?


    As "animal spirits" persist in markets, despite the yield curve repricing higher, and the terminal rate along with it, why are markets so intent on fighting the Fed? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Will The Fed Get Their Soft Landing? | Warren Pies Feb 15, 2023

    On today's episode of On the Margin, Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss wether the Fed will be able to achieve their soft landing.


    Focusing on the housing market, Warren describes how this is the key signal to watch for a hard vs soft landing in the U.S economy. Warren then walks through the Fed's quantitative tightening program and how this could effect markets in 2023. As short term bullish technicals emerge, how should investors position if the long term fundamentals are bearish?


    Finally, with an expertise in energy markets, Warren walks through "the energy trade" of the 2022, and how it could perform into 2023. As many headwinds remain for energy supply, what implications will China's economy reopening have for the global energy market? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:49) How Likely Is A Soft Landing?

    (08:28) Quantitative Tightening

    (16:34) Preparing For A Fed Pause/Pivot

    (20:00) Blockworks Research

    (20:49) Bullish Technicals vs Bearish Fundamentals

    (27:32) The Path Ahead For Inflation In 2023

    (31:09) Animal Spirits Are Back For Markets

    (34:18) Warren's Earnings Forecast

    (38:29) Permissionless 2023

    (39:13) The Effect Of China Reopening

    (44:50) How Energy Drove Inflation

    (48:50) Cycles Take Time To Play Out

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The SEC Cracks Down On Crypto | Weekly Round Up Feb 11, 2023

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the SEC crackdown on crypto as Kraken settles for a $30 million fine and agrees to stop it's staking operation.


    Mark states "first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win". As the pressure ramps up on U.S crypto companies, what will this mean for the future of the industry?

    --

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    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Interest Rates Will Remain Higher For Longer In 2023 | Peter Boockvar Feb 08, 2023

    On today's episode of On the Margin, Peter Boockvar Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group and Editor of The Boock Report joins the show for a discussion on the path ahead for the U.S economy.


    As markets have rallied to start the year, Peter walks through the state of the U.S economy. With inflation having seemingly peaked, Powell seems confident that disinflation will be the path ahead for 2023. Peter breaks down Powell's recent comments at the press conference last week before discussing how interest rates being "higher for longer" will effect corporate & household balance sheets and wether the Fed will get their soft landing. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/onthemargin


    *26-week T-bill rate (as of 2/6/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22).

    --

    Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    All Eyes On Inflation: "A Pause Is Not A Pivot" | Weekly Round Up: https://open.spotify.com/episode/50ABz990nXRh2NEXU6aVRd?si=3b9a53f609314f94


    The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:35) A Breakdown of The U.S Economy

    (02:40) Why Animal Spirits Are Back For Markets

    (08:45) Will Powell Get His Soft Landing?

    (14:12) Public Ad

    (15:59) Rates Will Remain Higher For Longer

    (22:46) The Chinese Reopening

    (27:00) The Path Ahead For Inflation

    (30:40) Permissionless Announcement

    (31:24) Preparing For A Recession

    (38:50) Breaking Down Earnings

    (46:16) "The Market Is Partying Like It's 2021"

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Markets Rally As The Liquidity Cycle Trends Up | Weekly Round Up Feb 04, 2023

    This week, Mike & Mark discuss the week of central bank rate hikes and press conferences. With the Fed, BoE & ECB continuing to raise interest rates, markets attempted to price in an eventual pause in rate hikes.


    With the S&P 500 up roughly 7% through January 2023, and the most speculative of names rallying the most, reminiscent of 2021, we walk through the liquidity cycle up trend and how the loosening of financial conditions has eased downward pressure on the market to start off the new year. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    "It's 2021 All Over Again" | Jim Bianco Feb 01, 2023

    On today's episode of On the Margin, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Jack Farley Host of Forward Guidance for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February.


    Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just that comparison. "This market is showing signs of 2021" with the most speculative and highest beta names rallying the most. We walk through Powell's comments in the press conference after raising rates 25 basis points and what the path ahead will mean for markets, the economy and most importantly inflation.

    --

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    --

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code MARGIN10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Can GDP & Earnings Hold On? | Weekly Roundup Jan 28, 2023

    This week, Mark and Mike discuss all things macro as they break down GDP and earning expectations. US GDP just came in above expectations at 2.9%. Is a soft landing possible, or is the economy holding on by a thread? Mark gives his convincing arguments for the latter.

    We also take a deep dive into the housing market, corporate earnings, overvalued tech stocks and why all eyes are on Japan. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bitcoin’s Place in the 2023 Macro Cycle | Charles Edwards Jan 25, 2023

    On today's episode of On the Margin, Charles Edwards Founder of Capriole Investments joins the show to discuss Bitcoin's place in the current macro cycle. We start with the state of macro and then dive into what inflation, interest rates and the Fed's actions mean for Bitcoin. We hit on frameworks for valuing BTC, Bitcoin's monetary policy and what metrics investors should be watching.


    Finally, we close with a conversation on Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge and long-term outlook!

    --

    Follow Charles: https://twitter.com/caprioleio

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

    --

    Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    Capriole's website

    https://capriole.com/


    Capriole's newsletter

    https://capriole.com/newsletter/

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:54) The Current Macro Environment

    (06:41) Crypto’s Changing Sentiment

    (11:16) Frameworks for Valuing BTC

    (14:41) Miner Capitulation

    (22:44) Permissionless Ad

    (23:29) Bitcoin vs Ethereum

    (33:34) A Fed Pivot?

    (41:10) 2023 Outlook

    (43:51) Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge

    (47:34) Bitcoin’s NASDAQ Correlation

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    All Eyes On Inflation: "A Pause Is Not A Pivot" | Weekly Round Up Jan 21, 2023

    This week, Mike & Mark are joined by James Davolos Portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics for a debate on all things inflation. At the end of the day, will team transitory will be proven right into 2023? After hearing last weeks episode, James reached out to engage in a friendly debate with Mark as he has a slightly different view on the inflation dynamics into 2023.


    We then move on to the mounting pressures in housing as KKR, Blackstone & Starwood limit withdrawals to their REIT products. Mark reflects on the 2007/08 period and what similarities, if any, we can make today in 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    U.S Dollar's Role In The Great Power Competition | Michael Kao Jan 18, 2023

    On today's episode of On the Margin, Michel Kao joins the show for a discussion on the U.S Dollar and its role in the great power competition.


    Michael outlines his thesis for an upcoming paper on the U.S Dollar looking at the geopolitical significance of the Dollar and the four key economic pillars of which is stands upon. As many have called for the demise of the U.S Dollar, Michael sees the current rules based order continuing, despite the less favourable policies the U.S has enacted. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Inflation/USD Wrecking Ball-Who's Gonna Out-Hawk the Fed?: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1613279643754463232


    Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System: https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/money-and-empire/money-and-empire/E9C856CAE32893E703C9BF474511A046


    Sanctions book – Backfire: Agathe Demarais: https://agathedemarais.com/sanctions-book-backfire/


    Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology: https://www.christophermiller.net/semiconductors-1


    Acquired: TSMC: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tsmc/id1050462261?i=1000534514877


    The Geopolitical Mosh Pit: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1589253118268944386


    Sir James Goldsmith Presciently Explaining Globalization in 1994: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKe38mVpHgk


    Rubicon: The Last Years of the Roman Republic: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/91017.Rubicon

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:17) The Primacy of the US Dollar And Its Role In the Great Power Competition

    (04:04) Economic Pillars of National Power: Geography, Natural Resources & Industrial Capacity

    (16:56) The Aftermath of Bretton Woods

    (32:38) The Geopolitics of U.S Dollar Sanctions, Semiconductors & Energy Policy

    (47:38) Energy Independence, The Dollar Wrecking Ball & Inflation

    (59:35) Permissionless Ad

    (1:00:20) The U.S Dollar Dutch Disease

    (1:15:34) The Great Power Competition & Rules Based Order

    (1:23:33) A Summary of The Great Power Competition Between The U.S & China

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Turns Out... Inflation Was Transitory | Weekly Round Up Jan 14, 2023

    This week, Mark and Mike discuss all things macro as they break down this weeks CPI release. Taking a deep dive into all the elements of the CPI bucket, Mark expects inflation to continue falling throughout 2023. Will team transitory ultimately be proven right? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair | Bitcoin & Macro: 2023 Outlook & 2022 Year In Review Jan 12, 2023

    On today's episode of On the Margin, Will Clemente and Dylan LeClair join Mike to discuss Bitcoin's 2023 outlook. Bitcoin is a liquidity gauge, and the markets are drying up. We explore what we expect from macro, how the Fed will respond and what this means for crypto, bonds and currency markets. Will and Dylan then explain Bitcoin's correlation to macro, why Bitcoin has "failed" to be an inflation hedge and their (bullish) investment thesis.

    Finally, we close with a conversation on Bitcoin miners, Silvergate/Genesis and projections for crypto in 2023!

    --

    Follow Will: https://twitter.com/WClementeIII

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Reflexivity Research's 2022/2023 Report

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ET__oUi5LeoKBxX2pBZu0FL9AaQ9B56R/view

    Reflexivity Research

    https://www.reflexivityresearch.com/

    Bitcoin Magazine

    https://bitcoinmagazine.com/

    Felix on Forward Guidance

    https://bit.ly/3Zx0CAj

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:51) The 2022 Leverage Unwind

    (05:06) Tailwinds or Headwinds on the Horizon?

    (12:09) How Japan Could Trigger a Black Swan Event

    (14:31) Currency Markets vs Bond Markets

    (17:47) It’s All a Liquidity Game

    (22:59) The Macro and Crypto Correlation

    (32:44) Permissionless Ad

    (33:28) Bitcoin’s Inflation Hedge Narrative

    (41:40) Bitcoin Miner Dynamics

    (52:38) Silvergate and Genesis

    (1:00:57) Crypto’s 2023 Outlook

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Mark Yusko's Big Calls For 2023 | Weekly Roundup Jan 07, 2023

    This week, Mark is back for the first On The Margin weekly roundup of 2023! What better way to kick off the new year than with an outlook for the year ahead in markets. As 2022 was dominated by central banks tightening in an attempt to tame inflation, how will these dynamics play out in 2023, and how will they impact asset prices from stocks, bonds, commodities and crypto. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Permissionless is the brainchild of Blockworks and Bankless. Over 5,500 people attended the inaugural event in 2022, making Permissionless the world’s largest DeFi conference. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when purchasing tickets using this link: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Crypto's 2022 Year End Review | Matt Fiebach Jan 04, 2023

    On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by one of Blockworks' very own research analysts Matt Fiebach for a deep dive on their most recent report "2022 Year End Review: Network Coverage, Layer 1s & 2s".


    Matt walks us through the top stories of the year from the Ethereum merge, to the Layer 1 wars, and the various narratives the year saw in crypto markets. We then deep dive into the contagion crypto experienced with 3AC, FTX and other CeFi lenders throughout 2022. Finally, Matt looks ahead to 2023, sharing with us his big calls for what lies ahead for crypto markets in the year to come, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research using this link: https://blockworks.co/get-research/

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    2022 Year End Review: Network Coverage, Layer 1s & 2s: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/research/2022-in-review-network-coverage-layer-1s-and-2s

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:55) The Ethereum Merge

    (06:05) Narratives In Crypto

    (08:21) Layer 1s & 2s In 2022

    (12:35) The Investment Case For Layer 2s

    (19:01) The Cosmos Ecosystem

    (27:43) Alternative L1s: Solana, Avalanche & Aptos

    (42:35) Network Infrastructure: Oracles & Bridges

    (46:28) Matt's 2023 Outlook For Crypto

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    A 2023 Global Macro Outlook | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves Dec 31, 2022

    Jack Farley, host of Forward Guidance, welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that “transitory will die” and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as inflation stays high.


    Wang and Goncalves also discuss the housing market, quantitative tightening, yield curve inversions, and their outlook on risk assets.

    --

    Follow George Goncalves on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategist

    Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_



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    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Brent Johnson: U.S Dollar's Role In The Fourth Turning Dec 28, 2022

    On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by Brent Johnson CEO of Santiago Capital for a discussion on the macro forces that drove markets in 2022 and what to expect heading into 2023.


    The story of 2022 was the U.S Dollar says Brent, long known for his "Dollar milkshake theory". With the Dollar surging all throughout 2022, Brent walks through the effect it had on other markets from bonds, equities and Gold. Warning of the bear market rallies of 2022, Brent remains cautious on risk assets heading into 2023 as the Fed continues tightening financial conditions.


    Finally, Brent shares his outlook for 2023 where he expects more volatility, uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Sharing his view through the lens of The Fourth Turning, Brent highlights the most important factors to pay attention to in 2023 and beyond, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:16) The Macro Story of 2022

    (03:55) The Fed Will Continue Raising Rates Into 2023

    (06:33) Did The Fed Loose Credibility In 2022?

    (11:08) Everybody's Looking At The Fed, What About Other Central Banks?

    (16:01) What Is Happening With The BoJ?

    (26:15) We Are In The Heart of Triffin's Dilemma

    (32:29) The Fourth Turning

    (40:50) Brent's Big Calls For 2023

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Crypto in 2023: Predictions Episode | Weekly Round Up Dec 24, 2022

    In today’s episode of On The Margin, we bring on Jason and Santi from Empire to discuss our 2023 crypto thesis. We debate predictions on the Wallet Wars, ETH vs Bitcoin, the rise of insurance, app-specific vertical integration, the adoption of CBDCs, Coinbase vs DEXs, MEV as a business model and more!

    - -

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:30) Crypto’s 2022 Wrapped

    (12:18) The Bottom is in for Crypto, not for Equities

    (19:46) Kings of Spot & NFT Trading Will Lose Market Share

    (22:50) Stablecoins, DeFi’s Resurgence and Permissioned Protocols

    (28:10) Regulators are Coming, and the CBDC debate

    (33:31) MEV will be the Business Model for DeFi & Exchanges

    (42:13) No Industry Takes Off Without Insurance

    (48:57) A Market Bottom & the Value of Memes

    (52:44) Curve ad

    (54:00) ETH vs Bitcoin (spicy)

    (1:05:13) Miner Capitulation, Wallet Wars & Gaming

    (1:12:54) Vertical Integration, Privacy and Payments

    (1:19:13) The Rise of Professional Guilds

    - -

    Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Santi: https://twitter.com/santiagoroel

    Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz


    Empire links:


    Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j

    Subscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7

    Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw

    Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod


    On The Margin links:


    Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3YGtdml

    Subscribe on Apple: https://bit.ly/3BUZXhK

    Subscribe on Spotify: https://bit.ly/3hHY1m4

    Follow OTM: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    - -

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    2022: The Year In Review | Byron Gilliam Dec 21, 2022

    On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by Byron Gilliam, Blockworks' very own Newsletter writer for a discussion on top market events in 2022, and what to expect going into 2023.


    We begin by discussing the current bear market in equities and bonds where Byron highlights "this bear market is not that bad" compared to previous bear markets. With his experience as an equites trader, Byron shares his thoughts on the typical 60/40, what equities look reasonably priced after the corrections seen in 2022 and how inflation influenced the investing environment over the year.


    We then reflect on the crypto markets in 2022 and some of the CeFi deleveraging. Is this positive long term for the space, or could this hinder investor interest in the industry. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:06) This Bear Market Is Not That Bad

    (03:07) Is 60/40 Dead?

    (04:56) Is Inflation Secular, Or Will Transitory Be Proven Right?

    (07:37) Are Earnings The Next Shoe To Drop?

    (09:55) The Importance of Liquidity In 2022

    (12:24) In Defense of Arthur Burns

    (21:29) Could Market's Be Flat For A Decade?

    (26:32) Reflecting On Crypto In 2022

    (29:12) Crypto Will Be Great For Users, But Not For Investors

    (35:38) Does Crypto Really Need A New Bull Market?

    (38:04) Will CeFi Contagion Help Spur DeFi Growth?

    (43:38) Has Elon Musk Bitten of More Than He Can Chew With Twitter?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Three Risks Still Left for Crypto | Weekly Round Up Dec 17, 2022

    This week, Mark & Mike discuss the continued FTX fallout as SBF was taken into custody in the Bahamas on Monday. The collapse of FTX left some investors fleeing from exchanges, particularly Binance, but when compared to previous withdrawal days, there was nothing out of the ordinary. We then go on to discuss Genesis and Tether as more potential risks crypto could face, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Crypto Trader's Mindset | 1000x Dec 15, 2022

    Blockworks just released a new podcast called 1000x! We're dropping the first episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup. 1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg that dives deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3.


    In this episode, Avi and Jonah discuss how to think like a crypto trader. They explore how today's market compares to the 2018 bear, where to look for opportunities, the investment landscape post-FTX and our top investing frameworks.

    A new 1000x episode will drop on Empire's RSS feed and the 1000x YouTube channel every two weeks.

    - -

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:28) Why We Started 1000x

    (06:18) Today’s Market Compared To 2018

    (16:17) How To Think About Trading Markets

    (23:25) Market Structure Post-FTX

    (28:05) Managing Risks

    (36:30) Investing Frameworks

    (48:12) Crypto Is Here To Stay

    - -

    Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman

    Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz

    Follow 1000x: https://twitter.com/1000xPod


    Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3Fw083Z

    Subscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7

    Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    - -

    Resources


    Golden Tree

    https://www.goldentree.com/


    Cumberland

    https://cumberland.io/


    Avi's psychology of a market tweet

    https://twitter.com/AviFelman/status/1595176484766883843

    - -

    Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    David Rosenberg: A 2023 Recession Is Unavoidable Dec 14, 2022

    On today's episode of On the Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research joins the show to answer the question: "Have we hit the bear market low?".


    We start with David's view that the market is still overpriced and the overwhelming odds of a recession in 2023. He explains why the yield curve is the most important variable, what to watch in the bond market and how a consumer default cycle will play out. We then finish the discussion on supply-side inflation, why David expects deflation is on the horizon and what to expect next!

    --

    Follow David: https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency which outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Rosenberg Research

    https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/


    Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises

    https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/1137525754


    Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation

    https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/91360.Devil_Take_the_Hindmost

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:16) Have We Hit The Bear Market Low?

    (11:30) Will The Fed Break The Market?

    (21:10) What Does A Default Cycle Look Like?

    (29:26) When Will Reality Set In For Consumers?

    (37:26) Circle Ad

    (38:46) Has J Powell Over-Tightened?

    (44:54) Supply-Driven Inflation

    (52:54) Which Assets Get Bid First In A Recovery?

    (1:02:28) The US Outlook

    (1:05:39) People Don’t Learn From History

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Don't Fall For The Bear Market Rally | Weekly Roundup Dec 10, 2022

    This week, Mark & Mike discuss the recent market rally and dive into wether this is a new bull cycle, or a classic bear market rally. We then discuss the Alameda venture capital portfolio that was released by the FT walking through the $5.4 Billion of investments on the excel spread sheet. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_the_margin , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Doomberg & Ben Hunt: The Story Arc of SBF, FTX & Alameda Dec 07, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Ben Hunt Author of Epsilon Theory & Doomberg, everyones favorite green chicken join the show to discuss "The Story Arc of SBF, FTX & Alameda".


    One month ago saw the collapse of SBF's crypto empire as FTX filed for bankruptcy. Ben & Doomberg discuss the ties between SBFs exchange FTX and trading firm Alameda Research. We then look into the use of the FTT token and how SBF was able to raise venture capital money at unrealistic valuations. Was SBF negligent in this situation, or did he intentionally commit fraud? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Ben: https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory

    Follow Doomberg: https://twitter.com/DoombergT

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    The MacGuffin, Part 2: The Story Arc of SBF and FTX: https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-macguffin-part-2-the-story-arc-of-sbf-and-ftx/


    The MacGuffin, Part 1: The Corrupt Crypto ‘Revolution’: https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-macguffin-part-1/


    How Sam Bankman-Fried’s Crypto Empire Collapsed: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/technology/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-crypto-bankruptcy.html

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:36) The MacGuffin: The Story Arc of SBF & FTX

    (14:07) The FTX Bankruptcy & The Role of FTT

    (18:09) The Mechanics of Rehypothecation

    (27:25) Negligence or Criminality?

    (35:35) Circle Ad

    (36:55) How Much Political & Media Power Did SBF Buy?

    (42:50) The New York Times Puff Piece

    (49:59) The Role of Investors, Media & Regulators In The FTX Fallout

    (56:00) The Golden Age of Fraud

    (1:02:02) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Joseph Wang & Mark Yusko: Week In Review: SBF, Powell, and Jobs | Weekly Roundup Dec 03, 2022

    This week, Mark & Mike are joined by special guest Joseph Wang for a deep dive on the top stories of the week. SBF spoke at the New York Times Dealbook summit so we share our thoughts on that interview.


    We then move on to Powell's speech at the Brookings Institution where he hinted at a 50bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting. Market's rallied after the speech as the expected a more dovish stance from the Fed going forward. What is the outlook for inflation, the job market and what Powell is signalling to the market into 2023? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12

    Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_the_margin , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Erik Voorhees Breaks Down SBF's Dealbook Speech Dec 02, 2022

    Recorded November 30th


    This conversation is from a Twitter spaces with Erik Voorhees moments after SBF gave his interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin at the New York Times DealBook summit.


    Listen On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3B4xe9H

    Listen On Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM

    —

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Erik: https://twitter.com/ErikVoorhees

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bob Elliott: Entering A Seismic Shift In Private Markets Nov 30, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Bob Elliott CIO of Unlimited Funds joins the show to discuss everything happening in markets right now. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee and created investment strategies, many of which were used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund.


    Having studied previous macroeconomic cycles, Bob states "this is a textbook inflationary cycle". Bob goes on to discuss the new higher rate environment we are in compared to the last decade, what it means for the economy and which assets will be perform best, or worst, in this environment.


    Finally, Bob takes his years of experience investing in private markets to explain how "the era of cheap money" will effect those private market valuations into 2023 and beyond. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Bob: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://onthemargin.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    The Economic Organization of a P.O.W. Camp: http://icm.clsbe.lisboa.ucp.pt/docentes/url/jcn/ie2/0POWCamp.pdf

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (05:08) The Economic Organization of a P.O.W. Camp

    (09:50) This Inflationary Cycle Is No Different Than Previous Cycles Throughout History

    (15:47) Circle Ad

    (17:07) Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle

    (23:31) Why Did The Fed Miss inflation?

    (29:48) The Role of 60/40 In 2022

    (39:08) What Is Happening In Private Markets?

    (42:31) "The Era of Cheap Money Is Over"

    (50:50) Curve Ad

    (52:06) Investing In Venture Capital During A Bull Market

    (1:02:13) The FTX Fallout

    (1:10:57) What To Expect Into 2023

    (1:16:30) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Trouble Brewing with Sovereign Debt | Weekly Round Up Nov 26, 2022

    Michael and Mark take a break today for the Thanksgiving holiday, and welcome Jack Farley from Forward Guidance onto the podcast for a special cross-over episode. This episode from Forward Guidance is with William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve.


    They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability.

    William White’s work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/

    Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/

    --

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv

    Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki

    Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj

    __

    Academic papers referenced:

    "Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah

    "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8

    "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikq

    William White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling:

    https://rb.gy/robwk2

    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_the_margin, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

    https://rb.gy/5weeyw

    Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:

    https://rb.gy/feusos

    Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:09) Looking Back At 2022

    (04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions

    (11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error"

    (23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models?

    (25:25) Algorand Ad

    (27:09) If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do?

    (40:43) The Debt Trap

    (46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake?

    (54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap

    (58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money

    (01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here

    (01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On the Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Grant Williams & Pippa Malmgren: The End of Magical Thinking, When Narratives Fail Nov 23, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Grant Williams & Pippa Malmgren join the show for a discussion of "the end of magical thinking".


    "The end of magical thinking", a term phrased by Grant to describe the illusion cheap money allowed for in 2020/21 as markets ignored fundamental valuations and speculation became rampant. Now with inflation, and the Fed tightening at their fastest rate in 40 years to fight inflation, reality has set back in for investors and now we must take a hard look in the mirror to understand what the best ways to protect our portfolios is in this environment.

    --

    Follow Grant: https://twitter.com/ttmygh

    Follow Pippa: https://twitter.com/DrPippaM

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Why Software Is Eating the World: https://a16z.com/2011/08/20/why-software-is-eating-the-world/

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:53) The End of Magical Thinking

    (14:41) The End of Globalization

    (17:05) Human Nature Never Changes

    (26:43) Why Software Is Eating the World... Or Is It?

    (38:56) Circle Ad

    (40:16) The Fallout of The FTX Collapse

    (52:01) The Rules of The Game Have Changed

    (58:14) Navigating This New Environment

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The FTX Collapse Spreads To Genesis | Weekly Round Up Nov 19, 2022

    This week, Mark & Mike discuss the continued fallout of FTX. Genesis, the crypto prime broker, ran into liquidity issues during the week causing many yield providing platforms to reduce their yields to 0%. We discuss what this could mean for CeFi lending providers, and who it could effect next. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://onthemargin.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Juliette Declercq: The Fed Will Get Their Soft Landing Nov 16, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Juliette Declercq Founder of JDI Research joins the show for a discussion on the Fed tightening cycle.


    Contrary to many analysts, Juliette expects a soft landing in 2023 with the labor market remaining resilient as the Fed continues tightening. Juliette makes the case that inflation will continue to roll over throughout 2022 and into 2023, continuing the recent CPI & PPI prints that beat analyst expectations. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Juliette: https://twitter.com/juliettejdi

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:31) Preparing For A Soft Landing

    (04:54) Inflation

    (09:46) Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle

    (13:52) Powell Channeling His Inner Volcke

    (17:09) The Housing Market

    (23:16) Circle Ad

    (24:36) The Bullwhip Effect

    (31:33) Have We Reached A Bottom In Stocks?

    (44:06) Inflation In The US vs Europe

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Jim Bianco & Mark Yusko: The Inside Story Behind FTX's Fall | Weekly Round Up Nov 14, 2022

    This week, Mark & Mike are joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research to discuss the fallout of FTX. Mike, Mark & Jim discuss the series of events leading up to the bankruptcy of FTX and how the events evolved throughout the week.

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Jordi Alexander & Justin Bons: Bitcoin Debate: Does Bitcoin Have Utility? Nov 09, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital & Justin Bons Founder & CIO of Cyber Capital for a Bitcoin debate.


    Having opposing views on the long term sustainability of Bitcoin, Jordi & Justin debate if Bitcoin has long term staying power and discuss the value propositions of other cryptocurrencies. Does Bitcoin have utility, is it's long term security model sustainable, what are the pros and cons of Proof of Work vs Proof of Stake and is Bitcoin immaculate conception enough to warrant it's spot as the number one cryptocurrency. To find out, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Jordi: https://twitter.com/gametheorizing

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:05) Jordi & Justin's Bitcoin Framework

    (05:29) Does Bitcoin Have Utility?

    (09:46) What Is Money?

    (17:12) Inflationary vs Deflationary Money

    (29:53) Bitcoin's Immaculate Conception

    (33:58) Bitcoin's Long Term Security Model

    (39:11) Circle Ad

    (40:31) Proof of Work vs Proof of Stake

    (49:03) Bitcoin's Blocksize Limit

    (1:02:25) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Powell Remains Hawkish, "Premature To Think About Pausing" | Weekly Round Up Nov 05, 2022

    This week, Mark & Mike discuss the Fed rate hike decision of 75bp. As markets interpreted the announcement as dovish and a catalyst for a small rally in risk assets, Powell's press conference walked back any dovish bias investors had. Powell made clear to markets, they had no intention of slowing down their tightening "until the job is done".


    All eyes remain on the labor market as an indicator for when the Fed's tightening will begin to materialise. The unemployment data came out as this episode was recorded so Mike & Mark break it down in real time. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Darius Dale: Progressing Through The Fed Tightening Cycle Nov 02, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Darius Dale CEO of 42 Macro joins the show for a discussion on the Fed's tightening cycle.


    By tracking the effects of liquidity on financial markets, Darius shares his framework for assessing the current tightening cycle the Fed is embarked on in their quest to fight inflation. While 2020 and 2021 saw markets soar to new highs in a liquidity cycle & growth upturn, 2022 has seen the opposite as the liquidity cycle downturns. In order to understand the market cycle, you must first understand the liquidity cycle, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Darius: https://twitter.com/@42macroDDale

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle: https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/an-update-from-our-cios-progressing-through-the-tightening-cycle

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:57) The Liquidity Cycle

    (07:58) Where Are We In The Liquidity Cycle?

    (16:12) The Fed Is Looking In The Rear View Mirror

    (19:24) Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle

    (24:08) Circle Ad

    (25:27) Tracking The Inflation Cycle

    (34:17) Measuring Liquidity Using The GRID Framework

    (40:45) Final Thoughts: Darius' Outlook On Markets

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Big Tech Wreck As Earnings Disappoint | Weekly Round Up Oct 29, 2022

    This week, Mark & Mike discuss the sell-off in big tech as earnings and guidance disappoint. With Meta & Amazon down over 20% in after hours just what is big tech signalling to the rest of the market? We then discuss Meta's pivot to the metaverse, wether this is a good long term bet and what is next for big tech?


    Finally, we discuss what is happening in the Bitcoin mining industry as some mining firms announced being unable to repay their creditors. To hear all the top stories of this week, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Leland Miller: Xi Jinping Signals A New Era For China Oct 26, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Leland Miller CEO of China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on China after their 20th party congress.


    Markets plunged on Monday after Xi Jinping clearly signalled to the world a new era within China. Leland walks through the paradigm shift in China's growth model going forward and how this spills-over into politics, economics, business and everything in between. Expecting a "slower, healthier" level of growth going forward, Leland helps investors walk through the new landscape he has been identifying for many years to come, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (03:06) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed

    (10:45) The Evergrande Fallout

    (15:02) Targeting "Common Prosperity" The New Social Contract In China

    (22:30) Circle Ad

    (23:50) China's Zero Covid Policy

    (29:38) Xi Jinping Signals A New Era For China

    (33:10) Chinese Markets Slide On Monday's Open

    (38:20) China vs U.S

    (43:52) The Strategic Importance of Taiwan

    (51:08) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Disclaimer: Scammers are impersonating Blockworks and replying to comments on some of our videos. Please be advised that we will NEVER reply to your comment asking you to contact us on whatsapp, telegram, provide investment advice, or solicit money from you. These are scam impersonator accounts and you should not respond to them.

    Bitcoin Searches For A Bottom...And A New Narrative | Weekly Round Up Oct 22, 2022

    This week, Mark & Mike discuss everything happening in the crypto markets. As Bitcoin holds steady bouncing around $20,000, should investors expect "crypto spring", or not? Mark shares his insights into the Metcalfe law model that Tim Peterson came on the show in February to discuss.


    Mark & Mike also discuss Sam Bankman-Fried's proposed DeFi regulation, their broader outlook on the economy & much more. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    Possible Digital Asset Industry Standards: https://www.ftxpolicy.com/posts/possible-digital-asset-industry-standards

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Eric Basmajian: An Update On The Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown Oct 19, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Eric Basmajian Founder of EPB Macro Research joins the show for an update on his "Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown" episode of On The Margin released in April of 2022.


    Since Eric made that call in April, things have accelerated, so we invited Eric back to the show for a discussion on how the most important economic signals are pointing to a further slowdown throughout 2022 and into 2023. What does the record tightening in monetary policy mean for the most interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy such as housing? How will that in turn effect consumption and spending? And will all of these factors combined lead to a recession into the new year? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    The Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6dwcJVX8vUm5gY0bwTvdXE?si=7b81b2b4506d4ce9

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:11) The Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown

    (14:53) Preparing For A Revision In Earnings

    (19:07) Preparing For A Hard Landing

    (29:22) Being Surprised By The Fed's Rate Hikes

    (33:43) Will The Fed Achieve It's Goal? Or Will Something Break?

    (38:53) Circle Ad

    (40:13) Eric's Secular Outlook On The Economy

    (44:05) The Biggest Misconceptions About Inflation: Wage Price Spiral

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    It’s Not Just Inflation, The Fed’s Lost Control | Round Up Oct 15, 2022

    The CPI print just came out, and prices are hot. This week's roundup explores the implications of high inflation, what it means for company earnings and what to expect next.

    Has the Fed lost control? Is this the fault of current or prior regimes? Where are rates headed? Is QE coming back? Tune in to find out!

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:36) Update, Bitcoin Is Still A Volatile Asset

    (09:46) CPI Print Hot Hot Hot

    (17:42) Entitlement & Earnings Trouble

    (23:17) More Rate Hikes?

    (30:54 The Fed’s Failure

    (52:47) Restarting QE

    (59:52) Exporting Inflation, Will It Continue?

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    "The Committee To Save The World"

    http://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19990215,00.html


    Bilderberg Group's Connection To Everything In The World

    https://bit.ly/3CYEoxP


    Rubicon (book)

    https://amzn.to/3fX8uIP

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Earnings Season Will Be Very Bad | Weekly Round Up Oct 08, 2022

    As Mike is away on holiday, Blockworks' very own Jack Farley, host of Forward Guidance, steps in for a discussion on the top stories of the week.


    On the back of a labor market report, Jack and Mark break down what this means for markets, the outlook for inflation, Ray Dalio's shift in sentiment from his infamous statement "cash is trash" and finally we discuss the turmoil in U.K gilt markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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    Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:14) The Labor Market Is... Strong?!

    (10:24) When Will Inflation Go Down?

    (21:55) Is Cash "Trash"?

    (30:13) Is The Stock Market Still Overvalued?

    (33:49) China

    (38:10) Importance of Doubling Down on Your Winners

    (41:28) The Bank of England's Rescue of the U.K. Gilt Market

    --

    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Julian Brigden: The End of Hyper-Financialization Oct 05, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Julian Brigden Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners for a discussion on the hyper-financialization of the U.S economy, and how that trend may now be in reverse.


    Looking back at historic periods of both monetary and fiscal policy being enacted together, Julian was able to identify the trend of inflation at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Since positioning for the equity market correction towards the back end of 2021, Julian shares his thoughts on the current state of markets. Are equity markets oversold, or does this bear market have further to go? What cracks are starting to form in the housing market? Is this the end of hyper-financialization and is de-globalization at a tipping point? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    How Bad Will the German Recession Be?

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:05) A Shift In Inflation

    (13:09) CEO Compensation

    (20:23) The Housing Market

    (33:05) Circle Ad

    (34:25) Powell Is Channeling His Inner Volcker

    (39:54) What Is Happening In Europe?

    (46:27) We Are At A Tipping Point

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    U.S Dollar Is Starting To Break Things | Mike McGlone Sep 30, 2022

    Recorded on Monday 26th: Before the BoE's Gilt announcement

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg joins the the show for a wide ranging discussion. As the U.S Dollar continues rising, markets are beginning to crack. Is there any end in sight for economies around the world?

    We also discuss what is happening in energy, commodity and crypto markets. How will oil perform ahead of mid term elections in the U.S? Is gold set for a move higher? And have crypto markets felt enough pain or is more to come? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:33) What Is Happening With The British Pound?

    (14:32) Gasoline & Biden's Approval Rating

    (17:41) How Energy Is Effecting Global Currencies

    (20:14) Circle Ad

    (21:33) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball

    (31:02) Gold

    (36:32) Which Countries Are Positioned To Outperform?

    (42:05) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Doomberg: An Update On Europe's Energy Crisis Sep 28, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Doomberg, everyones favorite green chicken, joins the the show for an update on the European energy crisis.


    After making bold claims throughout 2021 on the global energy situation, and particularly in Europe, Doomberg provides an update on the state of the European energy crisis. How severe will the impact of high energy prices be for Europe ahead of winter, particularly global manufacturing hubs such as Germany? Finally, Doomberg discusses the effect of energy on currencies around the world, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:57) Doomberg's Core Energy Thesis

    (07:01) The Energy Situation In Europe

    (10:15) The Law of Antilogic

    (13:55) Energy Price Controls

    (17:18) How Energy Is Effecting Currencies

    (19:41) The Dollar Wrecking Ball

    (22:52) Circle Ad

    (24:13) Powell Will Hike Until Something Breaks

    (27:52) The BoJ Will Not Be Bullied

    (30:44) What Is Happening In China?

    (35:58) Entering A Period of Stagflation

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Markets Brace For A Hard Landing | Weekly Round Up Sep 24, 2022

    As central banks around the world further increased interest rates, everyone looked to the most important central bank in markets, and that's the Fed. Powell raised by an expected 75bp on Wednesday, signalling "it will be enough". Markets were confused after the initial announcement, but selling increased hours after the announcement, not holding up until Friday's session. Are markets bracing for a hard landing? To find out, you'll just have to tune in!

    --

    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The "Super Bowl" For Central Banking | Jack Farley Sep 21, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jack Farley, friend of the show and Host of another Blockworks podcast “Forward Guidance”, joins the show for a discussion on the central banking super bowl.


    As over 20 central banks around the world decide their key policy rates this week, including the Fed, BoE & SNB, we invited Jack to the show to share his thoughts on what this means for equities, bonds & most importantly inflation. In Jack’s mind, there was no doubt the Fed was “behind the curve”, but are they also “looking in the rear view mirror?” as they aim to slay the inflation dragon? To find out, you’ll just have to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Powell Won't Stop "Until The Job Is Done" | Danielle DiMartino Booth: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1JZdcUsIivVSuIuF7q4Q7v?si=196c1d9a9b2f496b


    The Bear Market Has Only Just Begun | Ted Oakley: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2jx2I7cwDREUXAWDfdWUtX?si=0a00efc3ac3a48b5


    Is a Global Recession Imminent? https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/global-recession

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:43) The Superbowl of Central Banking

    (02:25) Slowing Growth & Soaring Inflation

    (03:40) Are We Heading For A Soft Landing?

    (11:25) Is The Fed Looking In The Rear View Mirror?

    (16:15) Is Inflation a Psychological or a Monetary Phenomenon?

    (18:15) Signs of Liquidity Stress In The Treasury Market

    (23:50) IMF: Is a Global Recession Imminent?

    (24:50) Circle Ad

    (26:10) Has Inflation Peaked?

    (35:40) Stanley Druckenmiller Warns There Is A “High Probability” The Stock Market Will Be “Flat” For A Decade

    (37:32) What To Expect Ahead of FOMC?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    FedEx CEO Warns of A "Worldwide Recession" | Weekly Round Up Sep 17, 2022

    After uniting at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit, Mike & Mark are back to reflect on the conference and dive into the top stories of the week.


    Markets had their biggest one day sell-off in almost 2 years due to a higher than expected inflation print, FedEX CEO Raj Subramaniam warns of a "worldwide recession" and the Ethereum merge is successfully deployed. Luckily Mike & Mark are on hand to break it all down, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Danielle DiMartino Booth: Powell Won't Stop "Until The Job Is Done" Sep 14, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence joins the show for a discussion on the Fed and the policy decisions they face throughout 2022 & into 2023.


    Last time Danielle joined the show, it was January, at the beginning of the year, as it had become clear the Fed stayed too loose, for too long. In that conversation, we discussed what Fed rate hikes would mean for the economy, markets, inflation & housing. Now, nine months later, it felt right to invite Danielle back to the show to reflect on the past year from a former Fed insider, and look forward for the rest of the year as Powell tries to reiterate his hawkish stance to the markets. Will they finally get the message? Is this the end of the Fed put? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

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    --

    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:56) The "Fed Put"

    (05:56) Jerome Powell's Paul Volcker Moment

    (07:31) What To Expect Ahead of the Next FOMC Meeting

    (09:22) Liz Truss's Energy Bailout Plan

    (11:32) Which Leading Indicators Should You Follow?

    (14:47) Housing IS The Business Cycle

    (20:30) Quiet Quitting & Work From Home

    (25:49) Circle Ad

    (27:09) What Is Happening in the Labor Market?

    (34:20) Looking Forward, What To Expect Throughout 2022?

    (39:43) The Need For A Modern Day G.I. Bill

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Ethereum Merge: Buy the Rumor, Sell the News? | Weekly Round Up Sep 10, 2022

    This week we discuss one of the biggest news stories in crypto markets as investors await one of the most anticipated events in years, the Ethereum merge.


    As many grapple with the bull & bear case for the Eth merge, Mark & Mike discuss how they see the merge playing out from their perspective. Could this be a classic case of Buy the Rumor, Sell the News? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Dario Perkins: The New Macro Supercycle Sep 07, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Dario Perkins MD of global macro at TS Lombard joins the show for a discussion on the new macro supercycle.


    As de-globilization increasingly becomes one of the key forces driving markets, Dario walks through one of his recent pieces titled "The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks". Drawing historical comparisons between today's economy with both the 1940's & 1970's, Dario describes the setup we now have for a new macro regime, and how central banks are viewing this current environment.


    This episode is full of insights you can't afford to miss to help navigate this new macro regime, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

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    --

    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Dario Perkins: Watch Out for Another 20% Drop in Equities: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7GSVdwJVQIje5mv1wuUefw?si=638b3f549e32414e


    Capital Wars, Liquidity & The Rise of China | Michael Howell: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5wNLkFpnxSHjnlcgPf4siP?si=a44b7638fcc142ea


    The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks: https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks


    Euro, Stocks Tumble as Russia Pulls Rug on Gas Supplies: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-04/intensifying-energy-shock-to-weigh-on-euro-test-ecb-on-rates?srnd=premium-europe

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:20) The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks

    (03:54) Comparisons Between The 1940's & 1970's

    (07:52) The New Macro Supercycle

    (13:32) Fake Recession, Fake Business Cycle

    (19:52) Inflation, Europe & Natural Gas

    (22:36) Big Tech/FAANG: A Return To Value?

    (26:22) The Cost of Living Crisis

    (29:53) Avoiding A Euro Crisis 2.0

    (33:08) The Role of Central Banks

    (41:42) Embracing Higher Volatility

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Has The Bear Market Rally Exhausted Itself? | Weekly Round Up Sep 03, 2022

    Mark returns on this episode of the round up, and after briefly discussing the matter with Jack last week, I decided to check in with Mark on his thoughts on the US Bond Market. We transition then into talking about the housing market, the soaring fixed mortgage rates, and the lag in home prices that follows. Next I get Mark's thoughts on the recent bear rally, before closing out our round up with mixed feelings on the recent decision about student debt forgiveness.

    --

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    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Michael Howell: Capital Wars, Liquidity & The Rise of China Aug 31, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Michael Howell CEO of Crossborder Capital joins the show for a discussion on the number one force driving markets, liquidity.


    Discussing Michael's book titled "Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity", Howell walks through the role of global liquidity, increasing debt and volatility on today's financial system. Have these three factors made our financial system more susceptible to central bank intervention and financial crises?


    Tune in to hear this discussion & much more!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    WTO successfully concludes negotiations on China's entry https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres01_e/pr243_e.htm


    Transcript: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the next steps for Russia sanctions and ‘friend-shoring’ supply chains https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/news/transcripts/transcript-us-treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-on-the-next-steps-for-russia-sanctions-and-friend-shoring-supply-chains/


    Suez Crisis https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/suez-crisis


    Russian gas in Germany: A complicated 50-year relationship https://www.dw.com/en/russian-gas-in-germany-a-complicated-50-year-relationship/a-61057166

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:25) The Rise of Global Liquidity

    (06:25) China Entering The WTO

    (12:28) How A Lack of Liquidity Leads To Financial Crises

    (19:20) Is Europe The Canary In The Coal Mine?

    (30:06) Bretton Woods, World Trade & The Role of The U.S Dollar

    (40:00) Capital Wars Between The U.S & China

    (44:53) Current Market Liquidity & Outlook

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The DeFi Credit Boom | Season One Pilot Aug 30, 2022

    Blockworks just released a new podcast called Bell Curve! We're dropping the pilot episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup.


    Season one of Bell Curve revolves around our DeFi credit boom thesis. Simply put, CeFi's implosion will create a DeFi credit boom that will bring new users and fixed-rate lending markets to DeFi.


    What products will be created? Who will be the users of these products? Where will capital flow first?


    These are a few of the questions we'll explore as we put our thesis to the test. Join Jason and Mike in this season one pilot episode, where we provide context for our thesis and explain what you should expect in the upcoming episodes.


    If you consider yourself a curious degen, builder or investor: this show is for you.

    - -

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    Follow Bell Curve: https://twitter.com/thebellcurvepod


    Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9

    Subscribe on Apple: https://apple.co/3pQTfmD

    Subscribe on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3cpKZXH

    - -

    Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    Powell Prepares Markets For "Greater Pain" | Weekly Round Up Aug 27, 2022

    This week we're joined by Forward Guidance's Jack Farley! We begin by discussing our takes on the recent announcement concerning student loan forgiveness, before pivoting to what we predict will be heard at the Jackson Hole meeting.

    After that we move into a discussion about energy prices in Europe, with Germany as a focal point. Jack then speaks on the state of China's real estate market. Finally we round out the episode with talks of the bad start to bonds this year and what the means for the rest of the year to come.

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Luke Gromen: U.S Dollar's Role In The Global Energy Crisis Aug 24, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Luke Gromen Founder & President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) joins the show for a discussion on the U.S Dollar's role in the global economy.


    After spending the past number of years outlining his thesis and the importance energy plays in being the global reserve currency issuer, now was the perfect time to get Luke back on the show to break down some of the tectonic geopolitical changes that have occurred throughout 2022.


    From energy shortages in Europe to Russian FX sanctions and now rising tensions in Taiwan, the U.S Dollar sits at the very centre of this discussion. This is an episode you can't afford to miss and will find yourself watching over and over again as we attempt to understand the geopolitical & macro landscape.

    --

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Twilight in the Desert: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twilight_in_the_Desert


    Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States: https://bit.ly/3QEY91I


    California Turns To China For New Bay Bridge: https://www.npr.org/2011/09/16/140515737/california-turns-to-china-for-new-bay-bridge?t=1661252480276


    Don’t forget the golden rule: whoever has the gold makes the rules: https://reaction.life/dont-forget-the-golden-rule-whoever-has-the-gold-makes-the-rules/


    The Quiet Coup: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/05/the-quiet-coup/307364/

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:38) The Post Bretton Woods System

    (11:09) Peak Cheap Energy

    (20:55) The U.S. Industrial Manufacturing Base, The End of Globalization?

    (26:09) The Closing of Russia's FX Reserves

    (33:30) The Energy Crisis In Europe

    (34:46) Gold & Bitcoin: "The Last Functioning Fire Alarm"

    (40:00) The U.S. Entitlements & Balance Sheet

    (46:38) Rising Inequality

    (51:14) The Quiet Coup: Privatizing The Gains & Socializing The Losses

    (57:14) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The GDP Growth Illusion | Weekly Round Up Aug 20, 2022

    In this week's episode, Mark and I discuss the repercussions of the Fed’s attempt to contrive certainty in financial markets.

    We start the discussion by looking at the US’ long-term GDP growth. The chart looks great, but is the Fed’s market manipulation setting us up for a surprise? Inflation and record-high debt are just two symptoms of the Fed’s attempt to create certainty in entropic markets.

    We then talk about this week’s FOMC minutes and reflect on current market conditions. Why are certain speculative assets pumping when most equities are tanking? We are in a thinly traded market, and more volatility is on the horizon.

    Finally, we discuss how a 20yr old just made $100M on Bed Bath & Beyond. Tune in for these stories and more!

    --

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    20-Year-Old Student Acquires 6% Of Bed Bath & Beyond, Makes $110 Million In 3 Weeks: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sureal-story-20-year-old-student-acquires-6-bed-bath-beyond-makes-110-million-3-weeks

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Fed Is Creating Hollow Markets | Mike Green & Ben Hunt Aug 17, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Ben Hunt Author of Epsilon Theory and Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion around one of Ben's recent articles "Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World".


    Ben and Mike compare household net worth and GDP which substantially diverged post 1990 when Alan Greenspan was Federal Reserve Chairman. Post Greenspan saw Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell take the role of Chair of the Federal Reserve.


    Ben highlights that "emergency government action always becomes permanent government policy". Just how has the era of QE influenced inflation, the U.S economy & wealth inequality. To find out, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World: https://www.epsilontheory.com/hollow-men-hollow-markets-hollow-world-2/


    The Three-Body Problem: https://www.epsilontheory.com/three-body-problem/

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:38) Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World

    (14:57) Central Bank Hubris

    (22:38) Searching For Simple Solutions To Complex Issues

    (31:38) Gresham's Law Of Information

    (45:47) The End Of A Regime

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Coinbase Marks A $1B Loss | Weekly Round Up Aug 13, 2022

    In this week's episode, Mark and I cover this week's CPI print, the state of macro, Coinbase’s earnings miss, and a historical US ban on an Ethereum privacy protocol.

    We start with a discussion on the lower-than-expected CPI print, deglobalization and ask if the FED still thinks they can provide a soft landing.

    We then dive into Coinbase’s Q2 earnings and $1B reported loss. Can Coinbase establish a sustainable business model? The numbers don’t look great, but there’s reason to believe they can turn the ship around.

    Finally, we discuss the US Treasury's Tornado Cash ban and the secondary effects across DeFi.

    Tune in for these stories and more!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --

    --

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    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Inflation Is Driving Demand For UBI | Jordi Alexander Aug 10, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital joins the show to discuss how inflation is driving demand for UBI.


    We begin discussing Jordi's outlook for the rest of 2022 with a major focus on the U.S Dollar and how the rising dollar could lead to liquidity problems. Drawing parallels to 2020, when the Fed extended U.S Dollar swap lines all around the world, Jordi explains how this dynamic could further exacerbate the publics demand for UBI.


    We then close the discussion looking at the cycles of inflation, crypto markets and Jordi's outlook for markets through the rest of the year, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    Federal Reserve announces bilateral swap lines: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200319b.htm


    Main Street Lending Program: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/mainstreetlending.htm

    - -

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:40) Jordi's Framework For 2022

    (02:57) The U.S. Dollar

    (09:56) Wealth Distribution & Social Cohesion

    (12:20) Cycles of Inflation

    (27:52) The Bull & Bear Case for Bitcoin

    (36:20) Crypto Markets

    (42:00) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Is the Bottom In? | Weekly Roundup With Zaheer Ebitkar Aug 06, 2022

    In this week's episode, Mark and I are joined by Zaheer Ebitkar of Ledger Prime to cover a very important question: is the crypto bottom in?

    Zaheer walked us through one of the most important drivers of liquidity and price action in crypto markets today: stablecoins.

    We discussed the different type of stables that exist in the market today, how they impact liquidity conditions, and how different stablecoin models are likely to be regulated.

    Finally we asked Zaheer whether or not the bottom was officially in, but for that you'll have to tune into the show ;)

    We also covered Michael Saylor's change in role at Microstrategy, Errol Musk's comments on his son Elon, Coinbase's partnership with Blackrock, and Meta's NFT roll out.

    --

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    --

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    - -

    Referenced in the show:


    Bitcoinisdead.org

    The Crypto Dollar Surge and the American Opportunity - Nic Carter:

    https://tinyurl.com/2p92hydn

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Untapped Opportunities in Crypto With FTX's Amy Wu Aug 03, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Amy Wu of FTX Ventures joins the show for a discussion on the venture capital industry both in traditional markets and crypto.


    After an explosion in VC funding throughout 2021, how have current market conditions effected private markets throughout 2022? As investors reconsider the valuations they are willing to pay compared to 2021, just how has this influenced funding in crypto? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    - -

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:38) VC Landscape In 2022

    (10:08) The Differences Between VC Investing In Web2 vs Web3

    (13:24) Big Trends For the Future

    (22:31) What Is Happening In Gaming?

    (34:06) NFTs

    (41:10) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Has The Fed Already Caused a Recession? | On The Margin Jul 30, 2022

    In this week's episode, we discuss the Fed's attempt to crush all consumer demand. Mark believes we've just entered crypto spring, but that enthusiasm takes a turn as we discuss the Fed.

    With two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, we can officially (or now unofficially) say we are in a recession. I got Mark's take on the Fed's actions, expected fallout and future CPI prints.

    Next, we discuss the US' "friend-shoring" efforts, failed sanctions and other policy mishaps. Finally, we added a new "positivity segment" that includes our thoughts on aliens and human evolution - you'll have to tune in to find out more!

    --

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --

    --

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    - -

    Referenced in the show:


    Janet Yellen "friend-shoring"

    https://tinyurl.com/2aprdz3p


    --

    Timestamps


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:32) Mark confirms crypto spring is here

    (05:26) Blockworks' DAS 2022 conference

    (09:53) The Fed is crushing growth

    (18:52) Friend-shoring: ineffective sanctions and a multi-polar world

    (22:53) Is housing the next shoe to drop?

    (26:10) Changing the definition of a recession

    (28:42) Listen to the bond market

    (32:40) Fighting inflation & oil price manipulation

    (42:06) Money is a claim on time

    (49:27) Alexander Hamilton, maybe we need Maxis

    (51:26) Sinister Saturday special

    (54:37) Aliens, Webb telescope and human evolution

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Dark Side of a Strong US Dollar | Brent Johnson & Lawrence Lepard Jul 27, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Lawrence Lepard and Brent Johnson join Mike to discuss the dark side of a strong US dollar.

    We start with an overview of the US Dollar's role as the global reserve currency and how the dollar system is causing many of the problems we have today. Can the US dollar maintain its reserve status or are things falling apart?

    Then, Lawrence and Brent explain how a strong US dollar is causing weakness throughout the global economy - abroad and at home. Brent shares his short to medium-term outlook based on his Milkshake Theory, and Lawrence counters with his position that the dollar will unravel at an accelerated pace.

    We close with a discussion on how the Fed will act next. You don't want to miss this one!

    --

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    --

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    --

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    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:47) The Dollar's Role As The World's Reserve Currency

    (05:03) The Dangerous Effects of a Rising Dollar

    (11:58) The Dollar is a Geopolitical Tool

    (22:46) The Price the US Pays For a Rising Dollar

    (27:32) The Dollars' Fate

    (32:20) Why Relative Currency Value Matters

    (36:56) Opposing the US Empire

    (44:51) How Will the Fed Get Out Of This Mess?

    (48:23) Will the Dollar Implode Slowly Or Suddenly?

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Bear Market Bingo: Elon Sells his Bitcoin | Weekly Roundup Jul 23, 2022

    In this week's episode, we discuss everyone's favorite subject: the bear market. I got Mark's take on the current bear, how it compares to previous bear markets in crypto, and what we should expect over the coming year.

    Next, we took a look at who has been selling Bitcoin in May and June. The largest (forced) seller was the Luna Foundation Guard, closely followed by Elon Musk's Tesla. We spent some time discussing Tesla's sale and why Elon may have decided to do that today.

    Next, we explain why things feel so divided today. Mark and I gave our take on wealth equality, the media, and hidden sets of incentives around ESG.

    Finally, we added a new "positivity segment - you'll have to tune in to find out more!

    Also, if anyone wants to watch my grandpa's interview, here's the link.

    --

    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:40) Is the worst of the crypto bear behind us?

    (16:54) The Reason Tesla Liquidated Their BTC

    (22:25) The Greatest Polarization in History

    (34:48) The One Metric We Should All Optimize

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The End Of "Peak Liquidity" | Mr. Blonde Jul 20, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Anonymous analyst Mr Blonde joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical forces driving markets in 2022.


    We discuss the increasing recession signals and how they will effect earnings for the second half of 2022. With a rising dollar, 9.1% inflation, an increasingly hawkish Fed and the end of "peak liquidity", just how will all these forces effect equity markets throughout 2022? To find out, you'll have to tune!

    --

    Follow Mr. Blonde: https://twitter.com/MrBlonde_macro

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Housing IS the Business Cycle: https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428


    The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks: https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks?hss_channel=tw-510529116


    Current State of the Housing Market: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/current-state-of-the-housing-market-3f2

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:45) Rising Risk Of Recession

    (02:41) Heading For An Earnings Recession

    (04:09) We Entered 2022 With Peak Liquidity, Peak Valuations & Peak Earnings, What Next?

    (09:45) How Energy Has Impacted Earnings

    (18:08) What Is Happening In Credit?

    (22:52) The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks

    (31:01) Housing IS The Business Cycle

    (37:19) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Stocks Remain Expensive Despite Rising Rates | Weekly Roundup Jul 16, 2022

    In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off discussing the Bitcoin market. Could crypto winter be passing and signs of crypto spring be starting to emerge?


    We then move on to discuss the historic value of equities going all he way back to 1871 vs now in 2022. With still elevated P/E's, is there more pain to come for equities despite rising rates? We draw parallels between the 2001 tech bubble which also saw high energy prices, a rising dollar and rising yields.


    Finally, we break down the recent 9.1% CPI print and if we could be in for a period of secular inflation. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball Is Causing Liquidity Stress | Lyn Alden Jul 13, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin", Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins the show. Lyn begins by explaining the energy shock she spotted in 2021 walking through her most recent piece "Energy: The Area Under the Curve".


    Lyn then shares her outlook on the U.S Dollar wrecking ball as the DXY breaches 20 year highs trading over 108. How will a rising U.S Dollar effect the chances of a recession, stress in credit markets and more importantly U.S treasury market liquidity? Could this be "checkmate" for the Fed? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Lyn: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Energy: The Area Under the Curve: https://www.lynalden.com/the-area-under-the-curve/


    Sohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Timestamps:


    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:51) Energy: The Area Under the Curve

    (04:50) Energy Crisis In Europe

    (07:58) Are Rising Energy Prices Leading To A Recession?

    (14:09) Should We Expect An Earnings Recession?

    (16:53) Signs Of Stress In The Treasury Market

    (20:36) Fireblocks Ad

    (21:55) Can The Fed Really Tighten?

    (28:14) How A U.S Dollar Spike Could Lead To Treasury Market Illiquidity

    (34:08) Universal Basic Income

    (41:52) The Decade Ahead

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Straining Markets Lead To Political Turmoil | Weekly Roundup Jul 09, 2022

    In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off discussing the recent volatility in crypto markets. We then move on to discussing the bailouts in crypto by SBF and the comparisons between CeFi vs DeFi.


    Mark and I then touch on the Fed's quantitative tightening & balance sheet reduction, rising interest rates, record high inflation and how tightening into a recession is causing political strife across the globe discussing some very striking headlines over the past week.


    Finally, we touch on leverage, volatility & the best hedge fund performers of the past year including Bridgewater's 32% gains for the first half of 2022. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

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    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Which Assets Win When Inflation Hits? | Jim Bianco Jul 06, 2022

    On today's episode of "On the Margin," Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins the show for a discussion on inflation. Arguing that we are "entering an era of persistent inflation", Jim walks through the biggest winners in this market environment.


    After correctly predicting the Fed's hawkish stance ahead of most analysts, Jim shares his thoughts on the bond market pricing in a pivot throughout 2023. Jim goes on to walk through the bond market turmoil with the worst H1 performance being recorded since 1787.


    Finally, Jim speaks on the contagion in crypto comparing the differences between DeFi protocols and CeFi lenders. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger vents about Ohio chip plant delay: 'It's such a pivotal moment. Please don't dither in Congress.' https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/intel-ceo-on-ohio-chip-plant-delay-please-dont-dither-in-congress.html


    Walmart Says Reducing Inventory Glut Will Take 'Couple Quarters': https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-03/walmart-says-reducing-inventory-glut-will-take-couple-quarters


    Russell Clark: Brace For Structurally Higher Inflation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfdFNVsf2t0

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:00) "The Fed's Credibility Is On The Line"

    (05:55) Entering An Era Of Persistent Inflation

    (15:00) Which Assets Win When Inflation Hits?

    (24:45) Fireblocks Ad

    (26:02) The Bond Market Expects A Pivot In 2023

    (35:30) Contagion In Crypto

    (47:05) Could Stablecoins Cause Systemic Risk?

    (55:55) Final Thoughts

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Winds Of Recession Are Blowing | Weekly Roundup Jul 02, 2022

    With Mark out, we have special guest filling in, Blockworks’ own Jack Farley, macro researcher and host of the Forward Guidance podcast. Jack explains how three recent events have made him think that a recession is more likely: moves in interest rates that suggest the Fed might pivot earlier than previously anticipated; the sharp fall in copper, cotton, and other commodity prices; and, most importantly, a forecast from the Atlanta Fed that real GDP for the U.S. will be negative.

    Mike then makes sense of the recent series of confidence runs that have taken the crypto world by storm, and he and Jack reflect on when the digital asset bear market might relent.

    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/syrupsid

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    --

    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

    Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Crypto Contagion Spreads, DeFi Offers an Answer | Sid Powell Jun 29, 2022

    On today’s episode of “On the Margin” Sid Powell Co Founder of Maple Finance joins the show to discuss the recent credit contagion taking place in crypto.


    With liquidity drying up in crypto & markets at large, deleveraging & liquidations have been taking place across the board. Sid joins the show to discuss the recent risk-off sentiment in markets and explains the differences between CeFi and DeFi lending. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Sid: https://twitter.com/syrupsid

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Voyager Digital Issues 3AC Notice of Default on Loan Around $665M: https://blockworks.co/voyager-digital...


    Archegos Capital Blowup: What Investors Need to Know: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos...

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:30) Credit In Crypto

    (03:20) What Really Happened to 3AC?

    (06:45) CeFi vs DeFi Lending

    (10:20) Do We Need A Lender Of Last Resort?

    (22:10) The Consolidation Of Banking, An Opportunity For DeFi?

    (25:20) A Roadmap For Crypto Lending

    (29:00) Fireblocks Ad

    (30:18) A Roadmap For Crypto Lending

    (36:25) On Chain Rating Agencies

    (40:30) Building In A Bull vs Bear Market

    (53:55) Sam Bankman-Fried Backstops Crypto

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Crypto Is Facing Bank Runs | Weekly Roundup Jun 25, 2022

    In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off with the current state of crypto markets. We next move into the economy, what the Fed is doing, and increasing economic indicators that we are heading towards a recession. Finally we wrap things up with the state of lending and credit in crypto, including the "runs on the bank" that we're seeing at Celsius and similar companies.


    For Mark and my take there, you'll have to listen to the show.

    --

    Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

    Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.


    Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.


    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Inflation Is The Fed's Greatest Fear | Liz Young Jun 22, 2022

    SoFi’s Liz Young joins us on today’s episode of “On the Margin” for a post-FOMC rundown. When the Fed abandoned its anticipated 50 bp increase in favor of a 75 bp rate hike on the back of the Department of Labor announcing a higher-than-expected CPI of 8.6%, markets had a violent repricing.


    Liz, SoFi’s head of investment strategy, walks listeners through the forces driving the Fed’s tightening cycle — she also covers the housing market, “animal spirits,” red flags signaling an earnings recession, and the Fed’s reaction function to the wealth effect.


    Does Liz think we should anticipate a recession and continued Fed hawkishness? To find out, you’ll have to tune in.

    --

    Follow Liz: https://twitter.com/LizYoungStrat

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    Fed Likely to Consider 0.75-Percentage-Point Rate Rise This Week: ​​https://www.wsj.com/articles/bad-inflation-reports-raise-odds-of-surprise-0-75-percentage-point-rate-rise-this-week-11655147927?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1


    Coinbase To Cut 18% of Workforce, CEO Wary of Potential Recession: https://blockworks.co/coinbase-cut-workforce-ceo-wary-of-potential-recession/


    Tech layoffs top 15K in a brutal May: https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/27/tech-layoffs-top-15k-employees-in-a-brutal-may/

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (01:11)・FOMC Meeting

    (02:56)・Increased Volatility & Market Reaction To A 75bp Hike

    (07:26)・The Housing Market

    (12:01)・Fireblocks Ad

    (13:19)・A Deep Recession On The Horizon

    (21:35)・Inflation Is THE Fed's Greatest Fear


    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Fed is Crushing the Economy | Weekly Roundup Jun 18, 2022

    In this episode, Mark, Dan Tapiero and I discuss the latest FOMC meeting, the 75 basis point raise and the carnage rippling through the markets.

    Inflation is at record highs but are the FED’s rate hikes a precision tool or a blunt instrument that will cause lasting market damage?

    We explore the global financial market, crypto’s outlook and the most likely outcome of the bear market. Will the Fed raise rates until the market breaks? Will the money printer turn back on? Tune in to find out!

    --

    Follow Dan Tapiero: https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP

    Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

    https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Referenced in the show:

    John Collison (Stripe) conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller

    https://youtu.be/-7sWLIybWnQ

    --

    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

    Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.


    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Fed “Taking The Punch Bowl Away” Triggers Market Sell-Off | Jurrien Timmer Jun 15, 2022

    On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Jurrien Timmer joins the show. As markets were in turmoil on Monday after a surging 8.6% inflation print on Friday, Jurrien joined the show to discuss all the macro forces driving markets. With bond yields spiking, equity markets selling off, crypto getting crushed, credit showing signs of stress and investors fleeing for the exit bidding the U.S Dollar higher, it's clear the "Fed taking away the punch bowl" caught investors out as liquidity dried up and correlations went to one.


    Jurrien goes on to discuss projected earnings, inflation expectations, the breakdown of a 60/40 portfolio during financial repression and the commodity supercycle thesis. Will the Fed be able to thread the needle? Looking back at periods throughout history, Jurrien helps answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Jurrien Timmer: https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Referenced In The Show:


    US Home-Price Appreciation Accelerates for Fourth Month: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/us-home-price-appreciation-accelerates-for-fourth-month#xj4y7vzkg


    The Four Stages of an Economic Slowdown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuB2RcrXFHE


    Grant Williams Reveals the End Game for Central Bank Money Printing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs4z8eU1qvI


    Sohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (01:06)・Market Turmoil

    (03:24)・Rising Cost Of Capital

    (10:37)・Are We Heading For An Earnings Recession?

    (16:12)・The Fed's Goal Is Demand Destruction

    (21:56)・Inflation Expectations, The Fed Put & Rising Real Estate

    (30:35)・Fireblocks Ad

    (31:54)・Historical Stocks/Bonds Correlation

    (41:11)・Unwinding Of The 60/40 During Financial Repression

    (45:51)・The Commodity Supercycle


    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Cracks Form In Consumer Credit | Weekly Roundup Jun 11, 2022

    In this episode, Mark and I tackle the growing bubble in consumer credit. We take a look at the personal savings rate and compared it to the sudden staggering increase in revolving credit.


    We discussed the evolution of banking in recent history, the growing and worrisome trend of "Buy Now Pay Later" and Apple's foray into that field, and covered the overall psychology of consumers during a recession.


    We ended the episode by covering BlockFi's down round, and whether or not we can expect more of the same in crypto and tech. For that take, you'll have to tune into the show.

    --

    Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_


    Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

    Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    “A lot More Pain To Come” For Risk Assets | Joseph Wang Jun 08, 2022

    On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” former senior Federal Reserve trader Joseph Wang joins the show for a discussion on quantitative tightening. Citing Joseph's most recent piece "Turbo Tightening,” Mike and Joseph walk listeners through the monetary mechanics driving the Fed's balance sheet and the $2 trillion at the reverse repo. They then break down what this means for markets, specifically risk assets.


    As the Fed begins its quantitative tightening program, Joseph shares the scenarios which could lead to both a soft and hard landing for the Fed. As economist Lacy Hunt recently pointed out, “Since the Fed's founding in 1913, monetary tightening has resulted in hard landings in all but about 10 % of the cases. Some of the soft landings avoided a U.S. recession but still caused a financial crisis."


    Upon sharing his outlook for equities, bonds, inflation and risk assets, Joseph says there’s “a lot more pain to come.” This is a conversation you can't afford to miss as we wade through uncertain markets. To hear Joseph's thoughts, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Joseph Wang: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    Turbo Tightening: https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/


    Charlie Rose: Sir James Goldsmith Interview - 15.11.94: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwmOkaKh3-s


    Fed Governor Christopher Waller says he's prepared to take rates past 'neutral' to fight inflation: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/30/fed-governor-christopher-waller-says-hes-prepared-to-take-rates-past-neutral-to-fight-inflation.html


    Monetary policy normalization in the euro area: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2022/html/ecb.blog220523~1f44a9e916.en.html

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (00:50)・Quantitative Tightening

    (08:07)・Soft Landing For Quantitative Tightening

    (13:05)・Hard Landing For Quantitative Tightening

    (21:21)・"A lot More Pain To Come" For Risk Assets

    (28:41)・Fireblocks Ad

    (29:58)・Raising Rates To Destroy The Wealth Effect

    (37:40)・Treasury Market Liquidity

    (42:01)・The End Game For The QE Era

    (45:32)・De-Globalization

    (47:14)・Expect a 30% Correction In Stocks

    (50:47)・Will Something Break & Powell Be Forced To Pivot?


    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Layoffs Are Just Getting Started | Weekly Roundup Jun 04, 2022

    Charts Discussed In Today's Episode: https://bit.ly/3Q4P4zA


    In this week's episode, Mike and Mark get into a subject that is near and dear to everyone's heart: layoffs. The episode begins by getting into the raw numbers: initial and continuing jobless claims, the change in recent reports from ADP, and the record number of mentions of "hiring freeze" from CEOs.


    Next Mike and Mark cover how monetary policy and liquidity translate to demand and hiring needs at company. They cover things from the investor point of view, as well as the employee point of view and how you should think about taking on equity compensation.


    Finally, they cover insider trading laws in crypto and recent negative statements coming from the New York AG. For that discussion, you'll have to tune into the episode.

    --

    Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.


    Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.


    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    It's “Game Over” For Inflation, The Risk Is Recession | David Rosenberg Jun 01, 2022

    On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” David Rosenberg joins the show to discuss the mounting risk of recession.


    Investors are battling with the highest inflation the US has seen in 40 years. PMIs are contracting in China, M2 growth is turning negative, and consumers have begun to reign in spending. David forecasts a substantial economic slowdown and sees the threat of recession creeping closer — he also predicts a surprise shock that markets have yet to realize.


    Is a deflationary sucker punch on the horizon? You'll have to tune in to find out!

    --

    David Rosenberg is the founder and President of the research firm Rosenberg Research. You can sign up for a free, one-month trial on their website: rosenbergresearch.com.


    Follow David Rosenberg: https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (00:53)・Inflation

    (14:43)・Leading Indicators For Inflation

    (23:40)・Fireblocks Ad

    (24:57)・Declining Productivity

    (35:11)・The Great Narrative Unwind

    (45:48)・The Powell Put: Comparisons To Paul Volcker

    (50:24)・The Powell Pivot


    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Great Narrative Unwind | Weekly Roundup May 28, 2022

    The On The Margin weekly round up returns! After a busy week in Palm Beach for the Blockworks event Permissionless, your favourite weekly round up is back to discuss the biggest stories in markets.


    Mike and Mark focus on tackling the narratives that were popular during the bull market to see how they are holding up during 2022's unwind. Can the Fed raise rates considering the amount of outstanding debt the US has, are we really in a supercycle, how will the bear market compare to previous market declines and so much more.


    To hear their thoughts, you'll just have to tune into the episode!

    --

    Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.


    Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.


    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Crypto Bear Market: How Bad Can it Get? with Ben Cowen | On The Margin May 25, 2022

    On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Ben Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse joins the show to discuss the crypto winter and bear market many investors are experiencing.


    As sentiment shifts, Bitcoin dominance begins rising & macro forces drive widely viewed risk assets lower, Ben gives a measured & data driven analysis of the fundamentals driving Bitcoin and crypto more broadly. Should we expect more pain to come or are investors preparing for a bottom in the near future? To find out, you'll have to tune in.

    --

    Follow Ben Cowen: https://twitter.com/intocryptoverse

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (01:08)・Bitcoin Dominance

    (09:31)・Sentiment Shifts In Crypto

    (13:10)・Bull, Bear & Base Case

    (16:30)・Comparisons Between Crypto & The 2000 Tech Bubble

    (23:16)・Timing A Bear Market Bottom

    (28:22)・Diminishing Returns In Crypto

    (33:12)・Fireblocks Ad

    (34:30)・Building In A Bear Market

    (39:48)・The Macro Forces Driving Crypto

    (45:08)・The Ethereum Merge

    (52:15)・Surviving A Bear Market


    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Fed Wants To Crash The Stock Market | Steven Van Metre May 18, 2022

    On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Steve Van Metre joins the show to discuss Fed chair Powell's plan to crash the stock market in 2022.


    With soaring inflation, the Fed embarks on its plan to tighten financial conditions at an accelerating pace with stock holders being the number one target. Steve also discusses the state of the bond market, signs of a looming recession, when we may see a market bottom, peak inflation and how a rising dollar could effect all of these scenarios the Fed is faced with.

    --

    Follow Steve: https://twitter.com/MetreSteven

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    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (01:01)・Have We Seen Peak Inflation?

    (03:46)・The Bond Market

    (12:04)・A Rising Dollar

    (14:53)・How Do Sanctions Effect The Dollar?

    (18:18)・Delinquencies In China

    (19:45)・Fireblocks Ad

    (21:02)・Lockdowns In China

    (23:38)・Is The U.S Heading For Recession?

    (26:17)・Powell Wants To Crash The Stock Market

    (36:02)・Signs of A Market Bottom

    (40:25)・The Fed Wont Get Their Soft Landing

    (42:12)・Final Thoughts


    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    UST Break Ushers in a New Crypto Bear Market | On The Margin May 14, 2022

    In this week's episode, Mark and I focus primarily on one story: the depegging of UST and evaporation of Luna.

    We cover a brief overview of UST, what the algorithmic model was that underpinned it, and what caused it to come undone. We also got into the aftermath of an explosion like this, and the contagion that could spread out into the ecosystem.

    We also discussed what new entrants to crypto should expect in a bear market, the current state of Coinbase, and Elon Musk's decision to "pause" his bid for Twitter.

    --

    Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.


    Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.


    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

    --

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    Inflation Has Put The Fed In Handcuffs | Peter Boockvar May 11, 2022

    On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins the show to discuss the Fed’s dilemma. With markets selling off in reaction to one of the fastest hiking cycles in recent history, Peter explains how current inflation rates have "put the Fed in handcuffs.”


    Peter shares his outlook for both the stock and bond markets, answering the questions: Where is the Fed put in this cycle? Will the Fed be forced to reverse course if problems arise in credit and repo markets? Or is inflation the number one enemy? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Peter Boockvar: https://twitter.com/pboockvar

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    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    Bretton Woods III. https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/...

    "Russia, China new pipeline, to settle in euros": https://tinyurl.com/bd3hr69d

    Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan: https://tinyurl.com/pb6keeh2

    Ben S. Bernanke Article: https://tinyurl.com/2p968u9m

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (00:43)・Peter's Macro Outlook

    (02:18)・The Bond Market Bubble

    (09:40)・Unintended Consequences of Government Intervention

    (15:57)・The Credit Cycle

    (18:01)・Lack of Credibility In The Fed

    (23:31)・Fireblocks Ad

    (24:49)・The U.S Dollar

    (29:40)・Zoltan Poszar: Bretton Woods III

    (32:41)・Is The World Shifting Away From The Dollar?

    (34:35)・The Role of Commodities Over The Next Decade

    (36:24)・Equity Market Outlook

    (40:56)・Will Powell Be Forced To Pivot?


    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Markets Puke - Is Recession Imminent? | Weekly Roundup May 07, 2022

    In this episode, Mark and I are focused on answering one question: what is going on with markets?

    We kick things off with a quick summary of the equity and bond markets, both of which are having some of their worst starts to the year ever. In the case of the US 10 year, YTD performance through April is the worst it's been since 1778!

    Next we moved onto three unsustainable states of being in the market today: 1) equity valuations 2) debt to GDP and 3) wealth inequality. We discussed each of these topics at length, and outlined their connections to one another.

    Finally we ended on the transition away from capital to labor, but for that you'll have to tune into the show.

    --

    Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

    Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

    --

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    US Dollar "Wrecking Ball" Will Fracture The Global Economy | Michael Nicoletos May 04, 2022

    On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” founder and managing director of DeFi Advisors Michael Nicoletos shares the macro forces driving the dollar higher. As risk mounts, recession warnings loom, and investors take flight for safe haven assets, it's no wonder the dollar finds itself rallying past March 2020 highs.


    With an expertise in FX markets, Michael shares how the dollar wrecking ball will impact the global economy, particularly emerging markets, as growth continues to slow and the world scrambles for greenbacks. To hear Michael’s take, you’ll have to tune in!

    --

    Follow Michael Nicoletos: https://twitter.com/mnicoletos

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter


    Referenced In The Show:

    Bretton Woods III. https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/uploads/2022/03/Bretton-Woods-III-Zoltan-Pozsar.pdf

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (00:50)・Michael's Macro Outlook

    (06:30)・US Dollar Wrecking Ball

    (10:04)・The Russian Ruble

    (15:00)・Fireblocks Ad

    (16:17)・Bretton Woods III

    (26:13)・What's Going On With The Yen?

    (28:31)・Trouble In Emerging Markets

    (35:28)・Is The Fed Behind The Curve?


    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    What Was Bill Hwang Thinking? | Weekly Roundup Apr 30, 2022

    In this episode, Mark and I started off with an old topic that is just resurfacing: the criminal charges being levied against ex-Tiger Cub Bill Hwang.

    Next we moved onto the slowing growth in GDP, precipitous rise of the DXY, and the damage being done to tech stocks compared to crypto.

    Finally we ended things on Fidelity's decision to allow 401K participants to include Bitcoin and the Labor Department's response. For that take, you'll need to tune into the episode.

    --

    Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

    Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

    --

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    Is The Bull Market Over? | Darius Dale Apr 27, 2022

    On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale gives listeners the details on his four horsemen of market risk signals and what they tell us about potential hazards brewing in the market.


    Along with host Michael Ippolito, Darius walks us through his point of view on the Fed’s inflation fears, the Bank of Japan’s reinstatement of yield curve control, and warning signs coming out of China. They also speculate on the 40-year bull run on the bond market: Could we soon be witnessing a regime change? To hear Darius’ take, you’ll want to tune in.


    Referenced In The Show:

    BoJ Announcement on the Conduct of Fixed-Rate Purchase Operations: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2022/rel220420d.pdf


    China’s Population Flatlines With Fewest Births Since 1950: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-17/china-s-population-flatlines-with-fewest-births-since-1950

    --

    Follow Darius Dale: https://twitter.com/42macroDDale

    Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter


    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (01:13)・Darius' 2022 Market Outlook

    (08:51)・6-12 Month Cyclical Outlook

    (12:39)・The Fed's Inflation Fears

    (16:11)・The Four Horsemen of Market Risk

    (20:32)・Growth To Value

    (22:43)・BoJ Announces Yield Curve Control

    (28:26)・Fireblocks Ad

    (29:45)・Is The Bond Bull Market Over?

    (35:50)・The Chinese Credit Cycle

    (39:22)・The Rise & Fall of Empires

    (43:04)・A Polarising World & Shift To De-Globalization

    (45:54)・Venture Capital Flows Into Crypto

    Bill Ackman Loses $430 Million on Netflix | On The Margin Apr 23, 2022

    In this episode, Mark and I kick things off with Netflix's earnings. After posting their first ever subscriber loss, the stock tumbled nearly 40% costing recent investor Bill Ackman $430 Million in just three months. We covered what this recent sell-off might portent for tech stocks moving forward.


    After Netflix we moved on to discuss the Yen and it's rapid slide against the dollar. Mark gave some color as to why the Yen functions as a reserve asset for global investors, and what its depreciation means for markets.


    Finally we covered the recent rise in food prices, the Bitcoin lightning network, and crypto valuations. For that, you'll have to tune into the show.

    --

    Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    The Rise & Fall of Crypto Culture | Konstantin Richter Apr 20, 2022

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike Ippolito is joined by Blockdaemon CEO & Founder Konstantin Richter to discuss the rise & fall of crypto culture. When sentiment shifts in crypto markets, founders build conviction. Konstantin reminds us of previous cycles & shares why he has never been more optimistic on the future of crypto than right now.


    Mike & Konstantin also discuss the founding of Blockdaemon, the pro's & con's in centralization vs decentralization, the outlook for a multichain future & designing new governance systems in an increasingly digital world.

    Read The Rise & Fall of Crypto Culture: https://andrecronje.medium.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-crypto-culture-3d0e6fd3e0e9

    --

    Follow Konstantin Richter: @konstantin11

    Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.


    Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.


    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

    --

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (01:46)・The Rise & Fall of Crypto Culture

    (09:07)・Are Institutions Failing Us?

    (15:21)・Proof-of-Work vs Proof-of-Stake

    (20:34)・Centralization vs Decentralization

    (29:27)・Blockdaemon Ad

    (30:37)・Blockdaemon

    (38:19)・A Multichain Future

    Jerome's Dilemma: Inflation vs Recession | On The Margin Apr 16, 2022

    In this week's episode, we started off with a recap of Bitcoin Miami from Mark. Next we launched into March's record breaking CPI print, and where Mark sees inflation heading from here.

    Next we moved into PPI (Producer Price Index) and PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index), what those economic indicators mean, and what they can tell us about the next 18 months of growth. We took a look at food inflation, various asset prices, and how investors should be thinking about the volatile environment we find ourselves in.

    Finally we closed on Elon's attempted purchase of Twitter, but for that take you'll have to check out the show.

    --

    Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

    Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

    Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

    --

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (01:36)・Takeaways From Bitcoin Miami 2022

    (05:08)・8.5% Inflation Print

    (06:56)・U.S. PPI Hits Record High

    (13:48)・Chinese PMI Rolling Over

    (16:52)・Expecting shorter cycles

    (23:38)・Negative Asset Class Returns In 2022

    (28:55)・Blockdaemon Ad

    (30:04)・Financial Repression

    (32:07)・Elon Musk Offer's To Buy Twitter

    Fed Turns Hawkish On Inflation Fears | Andreas Steno Larsen & Alfonso Peccatiello Apr 13, 2022

    On today's episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Andreas Steno Larsen and Alfonso Peccatiello for a special announcement: Their new podcast “The Macro Trading Floor” will be launching Sunday, April 17th on the Blockworks network with a VERY special guest.

    To stay up to date with the new show, subscribe here: apple.co/38Maf8f

    With inflation soaring over 8%, bond markets selling off, and the Fed turning increasingly hawkish, Andreas and Alfonso explain how to maneuver the market during these uncertain times.

    The two macro powerhouses put their money where their mouth is by each announcing an actionable trade idea — but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

    Referenced In The Show:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-04-05/will-russia-s-war-in-ukraine-cause-wheat-shortages-raise-food-prices-more?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-07/u-s-mortgage-rates-rise-for-fifth-week-with-30-year-at-4-72?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-billionaires

    --

    Follow Alfonso Peccatiello: @MacroAlf

    Follow Andreas Steno Larsen: @AndreasSteno

    Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

    Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

    --

    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

    Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

    --

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・The Macro Trading Floor

    (03:07)・Macro Outlook

    (06:00)・Stock Market Outlook

    (09:05)・The Housing Market

    (11:29)・Alpha vs Beta Market

    (14:21)・Blockdaemon Ad

    (15:31)・Andreas' Trade Idea

    (20:26)・Alf's Trade Idea

    (27:03)・Final Thoughts

    Bonds Smell Risk, Will The Market React? | On The Margin Apr 09, 2022

    In this episode I am joined by my colleagues and special guest hosts Jack Farley and Byron Gilliam. We went through a whole range of topics today, beginning with the bond market.

    We gave everyone an update on the rate hikes that the market is pricing in (spoiler alert: it's a lot), the historic rout happening at the long end of the curve, and how the Fed is likely to respond.

    We also discussed how to play a bond sell off, and the "risk vs reward" of investing in risk assets at the current time. We also covered the additional tail risk of Shanghai's recent COVID shutdown, and how that may exacerbate the current inflationary impulse.

    Next we went on to discuss Peter Thiel's recent comments at Bitcoin 2022, in which he decried the "gerontocracy" of Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink. He also said that Bitcoin could eventually grow larger than the global stock market, which is currently worth roughly $115 trillion.

    Next we moved on to the growth of Lightning Network, and the recent announcements that from both Strike and Robinhood.

    Finally we moved on to discuss Terra's $100 million purchase of AVAX, but for our takes there you will have to tune into the episode.

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    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

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    Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

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    More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

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    Referenced In The Show:

    Jim Bianco Thread On Bonds: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1512106368647536649

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:36) Permissionless

    (01:48) The Bond Market

    (06:20) The Stock Market

    (12:10) Zoltan Pozsar Calls For Bretton Woods III

    (16:40) Risk/Reward In Risk Assets

    (20:20) Lockdowns In Shanghai

    (25:40) Peter Thiel Bitcoin Miami 2022 Speech

    (32:05) The Lightning Network

    (40:35) Blockdaemon Ad

    (41:45) LFG Acquires $100 Million in Avax

    (57:18) Final Thoughts

    The Four Stages of an Economic Slowdown | Eric Basmajian Apr 06, 2022

    On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research. After correctly identifying signs of decelerating growth months ahead of most, Eric comes back to the podcast to share how he forecast the economic slowdown.


    As the yield curve inverts, GDP numbers begin downward revisions and investors deal with soaring prices across the whole commodity complex. Eric lays out the major warning signs that can help identify cyclical changes in the economy.


    Referencing Edward E. Leamer's paper "Housing IS the Business Cycle,” Eric also gives listeners a crash course on the connection between housing and economic growth. To hear more, tune in!

    Read Housing IS The Business Cycle: https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (06:46)・The Economic Pyramid

    (13:24)・Housing IS the Business Cycle

    (29:05)・Fireblocks Ad

    (30:24)・Falling Corporate Profits

    (35:33)・Risk Assets

    (40:55)・Is Inflation Transitory, Or Not?

    (47:25)・Rising Populism

    (53:34)・How To Solve The Growth Problem

    The Yield Curve Inverted: What Now? | Weekly Roundup Apr 02, 2022

    In todays On The Margin weekly roundup, Mark & I begin by discussing the 2yr 10yr yield curve inversion. Is the bond market signalling a recession on the horizon? What will this mean for other asset classes such as stocks, commodities & crypto?

    We then transition to discussing the work from home dynamic and whether employees will cause an exodus out of big cities, whilst demanding the same wages. What does this mean for the labor market throughout 2022 & beyond?

    Finally, we dive into Zoltan Pozsar's recent 10 page note published by Credit Suisse titled 'Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III'. For that discussion, you'll need to tune into the show.


    Come join the hosts of On The Margin at Blockwork's Permissionless! Next month in Palm Beach, Florida - we invite you to a packed few days of Panels, Parties, and Crypto! Get your ticket now at https://blockworks.co/events/permissionless/

    Zoltan Poszar Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III - https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=51io-WTBd-V

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:14) Permies and Permissionless!

    (02:42) The Yield Curve Inverted: What next?

    (09:40) The Yield Curve & Stocks

    (20:57) Commodities Bull Market

    (26:02) Wages: Location vs Quality of Work

    (30:11) Fireblocks Ad

    (31:29) Remote Workers Migrate

    (34:15) Ruble Bounces Back

    (44:17) Michael's Weekly History Fact

    (46:50) Zoltan Poszar Calls For Bretton Woods III

    (54:01) Thoughts on Luna & Terra

    Stocks Risk Crash Worse Than 2008 | Mike McGlone Mar 30, 2022

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest Mike McGlone, the Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. With 20+ years in the industry as a Trader, Analyst & Strategist, Mike offers a unique perspective on the forces driving global markets, with particular expertise on global commodity markets.


    As war between Russia & Ukraine continues, we invited Mike back to On The Margin to share his insights into how continued conflict effects wheat, oil, natural gas & agriculture markets throughout 2022. Mike also shares how the S&P 500 is facing a market correction similar to 2008, the political reaction to inflation, how the Fed will be forced to hike rates to curb inflation & how crypto will perform in this environment.

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    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

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    Timestamps:

    (00:00)・Introduction

    (00:46)・Fed Rate Hikes

    (04:20)・Bitcoin Market Outlook

    (10:43)・Oil Outlook

    (16:52)・Political Pressure Of Rising Gas Prices

    (23:07)・Market Similarities To 2008

    (27:24)・Fireblocks Ad

    (33:07)・Sanctions On Russia

    (37:55)・U.S vs China: Great Power Competition

    (46:48)・Assets To Own In This Environment

    The End of King Dollar | Weekly Round Up Mar 26, 2022

    In this episode, Mark and I got deep into the biggest stories of the week. We covered the rising costs of oil, and the $11 billion and $16.5 billion relief packages from California and Germany.

    We also got into recent comments from Ray Dalio of Bridgewater and Larry Fink of Blackrock embracing crypto, but why that might not be as sunny as it first may seem.

    And finally we closed the session out on where we currently are in crypto's market cycle. For that discussion, you'll need to tune into the show.

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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    Food Inflation is Starting to Bite with Russell Clark Mar 23, 2022

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest & former Hedge Fund Manager Russell Clark of Russell Clark Investment Management. After spending over a decade as an Investment Manager, Russell joins On The Margin to discuss the period of change we find ourselves in. From trends in inflation to the evolution of market structure & reliance on clearing houses, Russell provides a big picture macro framework for thinking about markets, & the world more broadly.


    Russell shares his thoughts on the connection between real wages & food prices, what conflict in Ukraine means for food, energy & U.S treasuries as a global reserve asset, the unwinding of the 50 year petrodollar system, how a Russian debt default could increase market volatility, recent price action in commodities & so much more!

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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    The Dollar Window is Closing with Brent Johnson Mar 19, 2022

    In this week's round up, Mark and I were joined by special guest Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital. Among many other things, Brent is famous for his "dollar milkshake theory," which is his view of what a sovereign debt crisis will look like in the future.

    Brent kicked things off by giving us a rehash of the milkshake theory and his thoughts on what the dollar may do over the course of the next decade. Next we dug deep into the US - China relationship, and got Mark's and Brent's views on who is winning in the power competititon.

    Next we examined the historic decision to confiscate Russian central bank assets, and the implications that may have for treasuries and the dollar as foreign exchange reserves.

    Finally, we concluded by looking at the collapse of Russia's economy and imminent default on their debts. We discussed the implication that will have for markets, but for that info you have to listen to the episode.

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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    The Fourth Turning Has Arrived | Neil Howe Mar 17, 2022

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Neil Howe Author of the best-selling book The Fourth Turning. Cycles often resurge throughout history, booms & busts, highs & lows, ascending & descending empires. We often forget history is full of these recurring cycles, thats why we invited Neil Howe to On The Margin, an expert on generational cycles to the show to discuss what the cycles of history tell us about America's next rendezvous with destiny.


    Neil provides his assessment of the current saeculum, describing the post global financial crisis era and the polarization this has exacerbated. Neil goes on to share his thoughts on comparisons between the fourth turning and the economic cycle popularly phrased by Ray Dalio as the long term debt cycle, explaining how this led to unprecedented central banking responses around the world. To hear Neil's thoughts on all these issues, you'll have to tune into the episode.

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    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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    Inflation Remains Hot: When Will it Peak? | Weekly Round Up Mar 12, 2022

    In this week's episode, Mark and I covered two topics: Biden's execurive order on crypto, and inflation data. We kicked things off with the Biden's executive order. We covered what it actually is, what it isn't, and which agencies the order referred to.

    After that, we took a deep dive into February's inflation print. We also took a look at the rising cost of oil and how that impacts economies. Mark gave us a bit of a history lesson in terms by comparing today's oil shock with the one from the 1970s.

    We also took a look at what the Fed is likely to do when faced with two opposing forces: financing conflict and facing down a possible recession and searing hot inflation.

    For our thoughts on that last issue, you'll have to tune into the episode.


    --

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

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    China’s Growth: The End Is Near | Leland Miller Mar 09, 2022

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book International for a deep dive into the Chinese financial system. After founding China Beige Book over 12 years ago, Leland provides a data driven assessment of the Chinese economy exploring whether China's growth model is coming to an end.

    Leland also discusses China's financial deleveraging, the demographics of China's population, the reversal in globalization, tensions with the U.S, conflict between Russia & Ukraine & much more.

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

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    Historic Sanctions Are Reshaping the World Order | Weekly Round Up Mar 05, 2022

    In this week's round up, Mark and I are joined by special guest Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management. This week we were focused on answering one big question: "how will sanctions and financial exclusion reshape geopolitics?"


    We kicked things off with a quote from Dwight Eisenhower's famous 1961 farewell address, wherein he coined the term "the military industrial complex." Eisenhower alluded to a powerful idea, which is that nations will always face pressure from without, but they must resist the urge to toss aside their ideals to face it.


    We discussed how Eisenhower's idea applies to today's geopolitical landscape, where hostile foreign powers and escalating conflict are leading to financial exclusion on both the domestic and international stage.


    Ultimately the talk converged on Bitcoin and whether or not state free money was possible or desirable. For that conclusion, you'll need to watch the episode.

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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    Will Powell Pivot Again In 2022? | Mr. Blonde Mar 02, 2022

    In this episode of “On The Margin,” Mike Ippolito is joined by anonymous analyst Mr. Blonde. Taking a break from diamond heists and bank robberies, Mr. Blonde joins us to discuss whether Jerome Powell will be forced to pivot Fed rate hikes in 2022.


    Mr. Blonde also shares his outlook on growth for 2022 and chats about market returns during Fed tightening cycles. They discuss how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will affect markets and whether inflation is secular or transitory.

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    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

    Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

    Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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    Ukraine Conflict Causes Market Volatility | Weekly Round Up Feb 26, 2022

    In this week's round up, Mark and I dug into the investor uncertainty caused by the Russia Ukraine conflict. Disclaimer: war is always first and foremost a humanitarian crisis. It goes without saying that our hearts go out to Ukraine and those involved in the conflict.

    Mark and I focused on the markets angle because we aren't geopolitical experts and that is where our expertise lies. The most important part of this story is, of course, the human side.

    We began with the response in US equities to the news of the invasion, including the Nasdaq's move higher. We also covered the behavior of Russian equities and debt markets.

    Other topics we went over include the inverted correlation between gold and Bitcoin, energy prices, investor sentiment, and historical analogs based on past war time.

    Finally, we concluded with a discussion around SWIFT and the potential deplatforming of Russia. For that take, you'll have to watch the episode.

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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    The Macro Forces Driving Bitcoin | Plan B & Jurrien Timmer Feb 24, 2022

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity & PlanB the anonymous quant investor & creator of the Bitcoin S2F model.


    Jurrien & PlanB discuss the current macro forces that are driving markets from Fed rate hikes, yield curve inversion & equity market valuations. In the second half of the discussion, Jurrien & PlanB discuss valuation models for Bitcoin, how current market conditions could effect Bitcoin & what the next phase of Bitcoin will be as it enters the geopolitical landscape.

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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    Canada Freezes Citizens Bank Accounts | Weekly Round Up Feb 19, 2022

    In this week's episode, Mark and I covered the rising cost of energy and the impact it's having on global economies. Next we went on to discuss record bearish sentiment in markets, and what that may signal for the days and months ahead.

    Next, we did an updated on "Powell Pivot Watch," and re-examined the similarities between the Fed rate hike cycle in 2018 to where we are today. We did a refresher on home prices, where they might be going in the future and the critical link between homes and financial freedom for Americans.

    Finally, we closed on the ongoing saga of financial sanctioning in Canada. For that, you'll have to listen to the show.

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks


    Bitcoin's Role In The Freedom Convoy Protests | Alex Gladstein, Greg Foss & Jeff Booth Feb 16, 2022

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guests Alex Gladstein, Greg Foss & Jeff Booth to discuss the ongoing Freedom Convoy Protests in Canada. We invited our guests to discuss the origins of the protests & how the situation in Canada has evolved.


    Tune in to hear Alex, Greg & Jeff cover why Canadian truckers are protesting, how these protests compare with Occupy Wall Street, why GoFundMe cancelled the Canadian Freedom Convoy's fund & what Bitcoin's role in their fight for freedom is.

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

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    Bullard Backs "Supersized" Rate Increase | Jospeh Wang Feb 12, 2022

    In this week's episode, I am joined by Forward Guidance's Jack Farley & Joseph Wang for a surprise cross-over (that we all knew was coming eventually ;) We missed Mark unfortunately who is away skiing, but he was with us in spirit and wore his bitcoin bull market socks in solidarity. We'll get em next week Mark!

    We kicked things off with a deep dive into the record 7.5% CPI print. We took a look at what the driving components were, headline vs core, and much more. We also questioned how much of inflation was due to the Fed (demand side) vs the supply side (supply chain disruptions) and how effective rate hikes would be in tamping down inflation.

    Next, we dove deep into the topic of yield curve inversion and got Joseph's opinion on the link between an inverted curve and a recession. We also covered Joseph's framework for how the world changed post great financial crisis, and how banking regulations may impact how trustworthy a signal the long end of the curve is.

    Finally, we closed with Joseph's high-level thoughts on where the market is headed in 2022. For that, you'll have to tune into the show.

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    Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

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    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

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    Bitcoin's Role in the 80 Year Debt Cycle | Charles Edwards Feb 09, 2022

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Charles Edwards, Founder of Capriole Investments. After releasing his Capriole's 2022 Market Outlook newsletter, we invited Charles to the show for a discussion about what he expects for 2022 & beyond.


    Charles shares his thoughts on the macro outlook for 2022, where Bitcoin becomes a value vs momentum play, Bitcoin vs Ethereum & Bitcoin's role in the long term debt cycle.

    --

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    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

    --

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    How to Value Bitcoin | Timothy Peterson and Mark Yusko Feb 05, 2022

    In this episode, Mark and I were joined by special guest Timothy Peterson to discuss a very important topic: how to properly value Bitcoin. I've included a summary of our content below, but if you are interested in finding out more info about Tim or his approach, there are lots of good resources on his website here.

    To kick things off, Tim gave us his framework for how to value Bitcoin, which relies on Metcalfe's Law. We talked about other networks including Facebook, Amazon, and even Tesla whose valuations can be traced to the same underlying principle.

    We dove into historical periods where Bitcoin exceeded its fair value, and what caused those deviations. Next we took a look at Bitcoin's trailing returns vs user growth, and some other shorter term drivers of price action such as transaction volume.

    Tim gave us some helpful comparisons between Bitcoin and other markets, such as the market for negative yielding debt and the Nasdaq. We walked through why Bitcoin is correlated to those markets.

    Finally we ended on Ethereum, other crypto networks, and how network effects could impact a multi-chain future. For our conclusions there, you'll have to tune into the show.

    --

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    --

    Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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    Is the Crypto Bull Market Over | Dan Tapiero & Dan Morehead Feb 02, 2022

    On today's episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital & Dan Tapiero of 10T. With collectively over 40 years in the hedge fund business at notable firms such as Tiger Management, before later pivoting to crypto in 2014, these two provide a unique insight into the growth of the crypto industry and just how big it could become over the next decade.

    Dan & Dan share their Macro outlook for 2022, the bursting of the U.S bond market, how crypto today compares with 2017, what the next big picture macro trade is, the mainstream adoption of crypto & discuss whether the bull market is over.

    --

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    Biden Cracks Down on Crypto | Weekly Round Up Jan 29, 2022

    In this episode Mark and I covered two big topics: the fallout of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, and the announcement that the White House is cracking down on crypto as a matter of "national security."

    We kicked things off with one of my favorite charts of all time, the S&P going back to 1926 superimposed over every reason investors had to sell. Helps provide some perspective, you know? Next we covered what the market is pricing in in terms of rate hikes for 2022, and the likelihood that the Fed will follow through on their hawkish rhetoric.

    Next we moved on to real yields and gold's confusing response, the flattening yield curve, and the precipitous rise in the DXY. We also covered the precipitous drop in unprofitable tech, increased volatility in the stock market, and what both of these things tell us about where we're at in the business cycle.

    We also took a look at today's price action in the S&P and high yield credit market and how that compared to the 6 month period in 2018-2019 around the "Powell Pivot" (hint: there are similarities).

    Finally, Mark and I gave our thoughts on the impending crackdown that is rumored to be coming soon from the White House. For details on that, you'll have to listen to the episode.

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    How Fed Tightening Will Impact Markets | Andreas Steno Larsen Jan 26, 2022

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Andreas Steno Larsen Director & Lead Economist of Heimstaden. After spending 10+ years as a Chief Global Strategist, FX Analyst & Researcher at Nordea, Andreas provides a unique insight into the current macro factors driving markets.

    Andreas shares his global macro outlook for 2022, his thoughts on the effect tapering will have on markets, the slowing credit impulse as a leading indicator for growth, the rise of China vs the U.S & if we are in a period of secular inflation.

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    FOMC Preview: Expect More Turbulence | Jonathan Cheesman & Daniel Masters Jan 25, 2022

    This week in On the Margin, we have a special bonus episode for you. There's lots going on in markets and we thought if ever there were a time to speak to as many smart people as possible, it's now.

    In this week's episode we are joined by CoinShares Chairman Danny Masters and FTX's Jon Cheesman to give us a preview for the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

    We also covered the increasing connection between macro and crypto, what constraints the Fed are operating under, and how different sectors of crypto will respond to increased tightening.

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    Crypto Sheds $200B in 24 Hours: Is the Worst Behind Us? Jan 22, 2022

    In this round up, Mark and I are joined by Arca CIO Jeff Dorman to answer the one question on everyone's mind: what is driving the flash crash in crypto markets?

    We discussed the impact the Fed's tightening is having on markets, why the PBOC's rate cuts aren't having as much of an effect on crypto, the importance of a strong Bitcoin to crypto markets, and where we will see dispersion in crypto in 2022.

    Per usual, Mark and Jeff brought the fire, tune in to get their thoughts.

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    The Macro Forces Driving Crypto in 2022 with Jordi Alexander & Checkmate Jan 19, 2022

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital & Checkmate Lead On-chain Analyst for Glassnode. Jordi & Checkmate discuss the long term structural macro trends and how they effect the crypto markets. Jordi & Checkmate also explore if Crypto can forecast broader market conditions, wether Bitcoin has become a viable macro asset, is Crypto entering a bear market, Value vs Momentum & how will the Fed respond to the highest inflation in 40 years.


    Link to Jordi's Twitter thread - https://twitter.com/gametheorizing/status/1435693384694321158

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    Have We Hit Peak Inflation? A Deep Dive into the Data Behind December's Record Print Jan 15, 2022

    In this week's episode, Mark and I tried something a little different. We went super deep on one topic, namely inflation. The question we asked was "Have fears around inflation peaked? And if so, what are the implications for asset prices?"


    We started off by taking a look at which categories were driving CPI inflation. We took a look at which of these categories were sticky and likely to persists (like owners equivalent rent and energy) or likely due to temporary, pandemic related issues (used cars).


    Next we covered the differing roles that the Fed and Treasury have in inflation, and the wild price inflation in the price of goods. Mark gave his views on whether or not the Fed actually had room to tighten, or if they would just roll over like they have done in the past.


    Finally, we ended the discussion on the question every investor should be asking: are we headed towards an environment of negative real rates? And if we are, which assets will benefit? For the answer to that, you'll have to tune into the show.

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    What Will Happen if the Fed Raises Rates with Danielle DiMartino Booth Jan 11, 2022

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by returning guest Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence. As a former advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Danielle provides a unique insight into the Fed's policy decisions throughout 2022.


    Danielle shares her thoughts on the dilemma's the Fed faces going into 2022, how the Fed exacerbated wealth inequality in America, Modern Monetary Theory, Universal Basic Income, her outlook for the U.S Dollar & so much more.

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    Fed Tightening Hammers Bitcoin, Kazakhstan Internet Outage Disrupts Hash Rate Jan 08, 2022

    In this first round up of the New Year, Mark and I started with the question that's on everyone's mind: are we still in a bull market?

    Answer - you'll have to listen to the episode to find out! But I will say... compelling narratives and data on both sides. Whatever the truth is, we have clearly entered a pattern of market behavior that is different from past cycles. Variety, as they say, is the spice of life.

    We went pretty deeply into the Fed's recent minutes, including the hawkish pivot and what that means for markets. Four separate rate hikes starting in March of this coming year are now being priced in with 80% probability. Assets are reacting accordingly, with everything from the S&P to the Nasdaq to Bitcoin falling percipitously.

    For our weekly stories, we covered the internet outage in Kazakhstan and the commensurate dip in hash power on the Bitcoin network. We also talked about the continued migration of hash rate out of eastern countries and into more stable regimes, primarily the US.

    Finally we closed on OpenSea's monster $300 million dollar round led by Coatue and Paradigm. For a more in-depth analysis of what drove their valuation, you'll have to give the episode a listen.

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    Dollar Predictions for 2022 with Brent Johnson and Lawrence Lepard Jan 05, 2022

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital & Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates. Brent & Lawrence discuss Brent's Dollar milkshake thesis and the negative effect a rising dollar could have on the global financial system looking ahead to 2022.


    Brent & Lawrence also share their thoughts on the long term debt cycle, the bond market during financial repression, the current slow down in economic activity & inflation, what a return to sound money would look like & how to protect your portfolio in this environment.

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    Chart Storm For The New Year | Weekly Round Up Jan 01, 2022

    To bring us into the new year, Michael Ippolito & Jack Farley take viewers on an audio-visual guided tour of the most salient macro topics for 2022. They analyze a series of charts that illustrate the most important issues, such as factor rotation in equities, what banks are doing with all their money, and why the interest rate futures market (i.e. Eurodollar futures) has a different view on the future path of interest rates than the Federal Reserve’s own forecasts.

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    Dollar vs Yuan: The Next Global Reserve Currency with Russell Clark Dec 29, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Russell Clark. With a wealth of knowledge that spans over 20 years as both an Investment Analyst and CIO/CEO of Russell Clark Investment Management, Russell shares his outlook on Japan as a model for the U.S, China's rise post globalization, the connection between food & inflation, what is the end game for QE, Russell's outlook on Bitcoin and so much more.


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    Trump Hates Crypto, Jack Hates Web 3, Erdogan Launches Bid to Support Lira Dec 25, 2021

    In this extra special weekly round up, Mark and I are joined by "Hollywood" Jack Farley, welcome Jack!

    We kicked things off with Trump's recent comments about crypto. Despite his wife Melania launching an NFT project on Solana, it would seem he is not a fan! Next, we moved onto Jack Dorsey's comments on Web 3. We provided context about recent pushback of NFTs from the Discord and Ubisoft communities, and asked why this pushback felt so emotional.

    Finally, we concluded by covering Erdogan's bid to prop up the Lira and compared it to some of the financial experimentation pioneered in crypto.


    Happy HODL days all!

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    What Rising Inflation Means for Stocks and Bonds | Harley Bassman and Jack Farley Dec 22, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike & Jack are joined by Harley Bassman otherwise known as 'The Convexity Maven'. Harley has spent over 35 years working at some of the largest firms including Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, PIMCO and now Simplify Asset Management. With an expert understanding of options, volatility & derivatives, we invited Harley for a masterclass on how investors can hedge in this market environment. Harley shares his insights into M2 money supply growth's effect on inflation, how demographics predict bond yields, what investors outlook should be for the traditional 60/40 portfolio, using the yield curve to predict recessions and so much more!

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    Ray Dalio Changes his Mind on Bitcoin, Stock Buybacks Skyrocket, Everything is Money Illusion Dec 18, 2021

    In this week's episode, Mark and I start off with Ray Dalio's comments about Bitcoin, Gold and Ethereum. Spoiler alert - minds are being changed! Next we get into the increasing politicization of crypto, and the battle lines being drawn between the Dems and the GOP.

    Next we get into breadth in the Nasdaq as a potential sign of worry (thanks Bear O'Shea for the flag!), record stock buybacks amidst insider selling, and finally the growing percentage of net income explained by the stock market.

    We end this week's episode on a philosophical question - is ALL growth just a result of money illusion? For the answer to that, you'll have to listen in.

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    Bitcoin vs Ethereum in 2022 with Avi Felman Dec 15, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by returning guest Avi Felman. Avi is the Co Portfolio Manager at BlockTower Capital and joins us to share his updated outlook on the market. Avi discusses the key trends in the crypto market from Bitcoin & Ethereum, value vs momentum, the layer-1 wars & more.

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    November Inflation Tops 6.8%, Evergrande Defaults on its Debt, Bitcoin's Next 6 Months Dec 11, 2021

    In this week's episode, Mark returns from his two week hiatus (woo!). We quickly got into November's 6.8% CPI print, which was the highest in 39 years. We discussed the factors driving inflation, and whether or not they pointed towards transitory or permanent inflation.

    Next we covered the Evergrande default, and whether or not the resultant fall out is cause for concern. We moved through skyrocketing household debt, a slowing global credit impulse, and whether or not the world is headed for "Japanification."

    Finally, we ended on Mark and my thoughts on where Bitcoin is headed next. Tune in to find out more.

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    2022 Crypto Theses with Ryan Selkis Dec 08, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Ryan Selkis Co-Founder & CEO at Messari. Having released the 150+ page 'Crypto Theses for 2022' report, we invited Ryan to the show to discuss the most important trends to look out for in the industry. Mike & Ryan discuss the Layer-1 wars, venture capital investment in crypto, NFTs 100x potential, regulation for crypto & DAOs, Ryan's market outlook for 2022 & so much more.

    Link to the full report - https://messari.io/crypto-theses-for-2022

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    Why Investors Are Running Away From Stocks | Weekly Roundup Dec 04, 2021

    With Mark out, we have special guest filling in, Blockworks’ video journalist Jack Farley. We make sense of the recent bout of market volatility, with bond yields plummeting and tech stocks selling off hard. Mike and Jack explore market anomalies such as stay-at-home darlings like Zoom ($ZM) failing to serve as hedge against bad COVID news, and the tremendous surge in the VIX despite the fact that the S&P 500 is only a few points below its all-time-high.


    We also talk yield curve flattening, inflation’s threat to the 60/40 portfolio, and why the Bitcoin’s dominance might fade over time in the crypto universe.

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    Roadmap To Crypto’s $10 Trillion Market cap | Ben Cowen Dec 01, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Into The Cryptoverse CEO Benjamin Cowen. Ben is a cryptocurrency market analyst providing education to his 600,000+ subscribers about the metrics that are driving the market. In this episode we discuss Plan B's Stock to Flow Model, Ben's diminishing returns thesis, crypto market cycles, institutional demand for Bitcoin, how to prepare for the next bear market and so much more.

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    Crypto's Last Cycle, Metaverse Mania, and an NFT Bear Market with Avi Felman | Weekly Round Up Nov 27, 2021

    Mark is taking some well deserved family time for this episode SO we have a special guest filling in, Avil Felman of BlockTower. Avi is deep in the crypto ecosystem and a born trader, this episode was a blast.


    We covered Thanksgiving's sell off, whether or not we are in a supercycle, the hype around the metaverse, and what he sees happening in the NFT market.


    Not an episode to miss, hope you all enjoy.

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    How Media Created The Great American Divide with Demetri Kofinas Nov 24, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin, Mike is joined by Demetri Kofinas, a media entrepreneur, financial analyst and host of the renowned Hidden Forces podcast. Demetri returns to On The Margin to share his thoughts on the great divide in America, the state of the media, the failing trust in institutions, the effect of globalization on the U.S worker & inflations effect on wealth inequality.

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    Hillary Clinton Fears Bitcoin, Crypto Cycles and Gemini’s 400M Raise | Weekly Round Up Nov 20, 2021

    In this week's round up, Mark and I kick things off with some good old fashioned chart analysis. First off - credit where credit is due, I got these charts from the Bankless interview with Benjamin Cowen. Phenomenal episode, I highly recommend you check it out.


    We took a look at what appears to be lengthening cycles in crypto, diminishing returns of each cycle, and a general reduction in volatility. Next we went on to take a look at some economic data, mainly the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Index and Initial Jobless Claims. Finally, we ended things on Gemini's $400 million raise led by none other than Mark himself.


    To hear what he has to say, give the episode a listen.

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    Why QE Is NOT Money Printing | Emil Kalinowski & Jeff Snider Nov 17, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments & Emil Kalinowski, Mining & Metals Researcher. Jeff & Emil are hosts of Eurodollar University, a podcast dedicated to analyzing the 2007 malfunction of the monetary system - and how its continuing disorder - affects finance, politics and society. Jeff & Emil share their thoughts on the myth of central banking, the Fed's effect on financial markets, why QE is not money printing, the interest rate fallacy & the role of Bitcoin & digital assets.

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    Solana Conference Round Up, 6.2% CPI Print, Every Company Bets on "Metaverse" | Weekly Round Up Nov 16, 2021

    In this week's episode, we kicked things off with an honest review of Solana's Breakpoint conference which I have been at for the past week. I had two big takeaways from the conference:


    1. Solana is going to endure well beyond this market cycle

    2. We are approaching a top in the current market cycle


    The folks at Solana absolutely hit it out of the park with this conference, and there were lots of great projects building on the ecosystem. In particular, I was most interested to hear from the developers building out financial primitives (banking interfaces, decentralized options, structured, projects, etc...). But there were plenty of signs of excess, which Mark and I get into in the episode.


    After the Solana recap, we got into the 6.2% October CPI print, and took a look at historical comparisons of the 1940s and 1970s. After that we moved onto signs of excess speculation in the market, with a particular focus on spot and option trading volumes. We also took a look at historical S&P earnings and valuation metrics, and finally ended with conflicting narratives on household debt.

    --

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    Bitcoin — The Ultimate Inflation Hedge? Lyn Alden and Jurrien Timmer Discuss Nov 10, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin, Mike is joined by returning guests Lyn Alden & Jurrien Timmer. Lyn is the founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy and Jurrien Director of Global Macro at Fidelity. Lyn and Jurrien discuss the long term debt cycle, how the 2020's compare with other periods of history, is the traditional 60/40 portfolio dead, Bitcoin as a hedge for bonds, the effect of inflation on inequality & their outlook for the U.S Dollar.

    --

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    Wages Jump, Signs of Stress in Emerging Markets, Skeuomorphism in Crypto | Weekly Round Up Nov 06, 2021

    In this episode, Mark and I spent a good deal of time covering "inflation related" topics. First we dug deep into retirees leaving the workforce at an accelerated rate, and a look at the jump in wages in the banking sector. Here is the Tweet I referenced, thank you Skanda Amarnath!

    Next we took a look at what at first sign appeared to be signs of stress in emerging markets - high yield spreads in China, and emerging market funding stress. But we did a little digging and found a more comprehensive index called the OFR Financial Index, which tracks a broader range of categories (credit, funding, equity valuations, volatility, etc...) and found that we are within the normal range.

    We ended the charts portion of the show on a chart of the 20-day moving average of call options traded, which is spiking. We went back and forth a bit about Elon Musk, sorry guys I looked for the article that I referenced and I can't find it. 10 of my finest steeds to the person who can find the article I'm referencing.

    To round off the show, Mark and I went into our own personal experience in crypto and what has made some investors successful and others not so. For details on that, you'll have to listen to the episode.

    --

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    Bloomberg Analyst: The Bitcoin Supercycle Is Here | Mike McGlone Nov 03, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin, Mike is joined by Mike McGlone, the Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

    Mike shares his thoughts on the Bitcoin futures ETFs, the outlook for an Ethereum ETF, crypto market cycles, commodity price increases, the deflationary forces of technology and the incoming Bitcoin supercycle.

    --

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    --

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    Facebook is Meta, Investors Favor Stocks, Bond Sentiment Falls to Record Lows | Round Up Oct 30, 2021

    In this week's show, Mark and I dive deep into investor preferences. The first chart that we look at is a fun one from Michael Batnick of the S&P since March of 09 annotated with mini investor panics (GM and Chrysler file for bankruptcy, European debt crises, multiple government shut downs, COVID, etc...). Spoiler alert: the number goes up, and dips should always be bought.


    Next we take a look at investor sentiment on bonds, which is the lowest it's been since 2000 according to a survey conducted by Bank of America. Consequently, aggregate capital allocation from households, mutual funds, pension funds and foreign investors is 52% allocated to stocks, even higher than it was at the peak of the dot com mania.


    Mark and I take a deep look at structural growth through the lens of some fun charts we found courtesy of Raoul Pal at Global macro investor, and we end with a look at the "Quarterly Earnings" of the Ethereum network. The name that I couldn't remember during the episode was Ben Giove, thanks Ben and Bankless for the stellar info.


    Mark and I spent the entire second half of the show talking about Eth and Facebook's pivot to Meta. For that info though, you're going to have to watch the show.

    --

    Ledger:


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    Bitcoin's Role in the War on Cash | Mike Green & Alex Gladstein Oct 27, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management & Alex Gladstein of the Human Rights Foundation. Mike & Alex sit down to debate the role of Bitcoin from opposing angles, discussing wether a Bitcoin standard benefit the U.S, what is the role of Bitcoin for those living under authoritarian regimes, government response to Bitcoin, the war on cash, CBDCs, Stablecoins & the role of sound money in society.

    --

    Ledger:


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    Growth vs Inflation, Firefighters Pension Buys Bitcoin, FTX Raises $420 Million | Round Up Oct 23, 2021

    In this week's round up, Mark and I cover two concepts very deeply: 1) why structural growth is falling and 2) how that impacts inflation.


    We spend a lot of time covering Mark's "Killer D's" Framework: Demographics, Debt, and Deflation. We also took a deep look at falling estimates for GDP growth, and the limits on how much we can trust central bankers predictions (hint: we can't).


    We also picked apart some charts that came to us courtesy of Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity on how inflation, commodities and the S&P have performed during periods of economic expansion. As always, Jurrien's attention to detail and historic perspective made for some fascinating conversation.


    We ended the charts portion of our talk with a conversation about US military spending, and covered the idea that a dominant empire tends to lead to peaceful periods. This pattern is reflected in nature as well.


    Finally, in the stories portion of our round up we covered three big headlines: 1) the houston firefighters pension buying Bitcoin and Ether 2) the launch of the Bitcoin ETF and 3) FTX raising $420,690,000 from 69 investor.


    For our thoughts on those, you'll have to listen to the episode :)

    --

    Ledger:


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    Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.


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    Coinbase Prime:


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    Everything You Need to Know: Bitcoin ETF, Lightning Network, & Altcoins || Jeff Booth & Greg Foss Oct 20, 2021

    In this episode on On The Margin, Mike is joined by returning guests Jeff Booth & Greg Foss. Jeff & Greg discuss breaking news as the first ever U.S Bitcoin ETF was approved and what this could mean for institutional exposure to Bitcoin. Mike, Jeff & Greg also discuss the recent developments in El Salvador as Bitcoin was made legal tender, The Lightning Network, the deflationary forces & network effects of technology, Bitcoin mining, the difference between Altcoins vs Bitcoin, the outlook for 2021 & the future of Bitcoin.

    --

    Ledger:


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    Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.


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    Coinbase Prime:


    On The Margin is supported by Coinbase Prime, an integrated solution that provides advanced multi-venue trading, custody, and prime services for institutions.


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    Enron vs Tesla, Bitcoin Futures ETF, and Coinbase NFT Market Place | Weekly Round Up Oct 16, 2021

    In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off with a cool bit of financial history: Goldman's buy rating of Enron three weeks before it collapsed.


    I love this piece because it opened the door to chatting about one of my favorite documentaries of all time, "The Smartest Guys in the Room." Mark of course was around at the time and knew folks involved on the short side, so it was particularly interesting to get his take here.


    That conversation segwayed into a discussion of Tesla, and the thin line between visionary and fraud (shout out Bethany McLean). Mark and I somewhat disagreed on this, but I respect his opinion and I think we aligned by the end.


    Next we covered one of the more interesting trends happening in America today: everyone is quitting their jobs! We got into why that might be happening, which led to a discussion of the hustle and grit of China compared to the contemporary US.


    Finally we kicked things off with our two stories of the week:


    1. The launch of the bitcoin futures ETF

    2. Coinbase's NFT marketplace


    For the full discussion on these last two items, you're gonna have to watch the video yourself :)


    --

    Ledger:


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    Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.


    Visit https://onthemargin.link/ledger and make your crypto journey easier and safer.


    Coinbase Prime:


    On The Margin is supported by Coinbase Prime, an integrated solution that provides advanced multi-venue trading, custody, and prime services for institutions.


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    Deciphering the Metaverse with David Hoffman Oct 13, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by David Hoffman. David is Co-Founder of Bankless, a podcast exploring the frontier of crypto & finance by interviewing some of the greatest thought leaders in the industry. Mike & David discuss the evolution of crypto, how DeFi will disrupt gaming, DAOs, redefining the role of nation states in the metaverse & what the future holds for the cryptocurrency industry.

    --

    Ledger:


    This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gateway to buy, exchange and grow your crypto.


    Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.


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    Coinbase Prime:


    On The Margin is supported by Coinbase Prime, an integrated solution that provides advanced multi-venue trading, custody, and prime services for institutions.


    For more information go to https://onthemargin.link/coinbase

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    Institutional Money Drives Bitcoin Higher, China Grapples with Energy Crisis | Round Up Oct 09, 2021

    In this episode of the weekly round up, Mike and Mark spend a lot of time on Bitcoin's recent run above $55,000. They take a look at open interest and the rolling 1 month basis on Bitcoin futures on CME compared to other offshore exchanges like Deribit and Huobi, and what that says about institutional flows. They also take a look at Bitcoin's price action compared to previous cycles in 2013 and 2017, and the recent resumption of the seasonality trend and divergence from equities.


    In the latter portion of the conversation they dive deep into food prices, rising energy prices and depleted coal reserves in China and India, and what that says about the current state of geopolitics. Finally they cover George Soros' family office getting further into crypto and the FDIC reportedly taking a look at insuring stablecoin deposits.

    --

    Ledger:


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    Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security.


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    Coinbase Prime:


    On The Margin is supported by Coinbase Prime, an integrated solution that provides advanced multi-venue trading, custody, and prime services for institutions.


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    The end game for the Dollar: China vs the U.S. | Grant Williams and Luke Gromen Oct 06, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by returning guests Grant Williams & Luke Gromen. We welcome back two financial market veterans for a special episode exploring the fracturing geopolitical landscape between the east and the west. Grant and Luke share their insight surrounding China's declaration of war on the U.S, how the current monetary system could collapse China's economy, the consequences of globalization, what the end game is for the dollar & how to prepare for the changing world order as two global superpowers collide.

    --

    Ledger:


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    Coinbase Prime:


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    Breaking-down China’s energy crisis | Weekly Round Up Oct 02, 2021

    In this episode it's a "charts, charts, charts!" special. Mike and Mark go deep on the budding energy crisis, crypto's 10% rally on Friday, a potential return to 1970s like inflation, housing prices, and finally what the role of government should be.

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    The Return to a Deflationary World post COVID: Eric Basmajian Sep 29, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin, Mike is joined by Eric Basmajian. Eric is the founder of EPB Macro Research, a service that provides premium fundamental macro economic research, with a focus on long-term & short-term economic cycle risk management. In this episode, Mike & Eric discuss the long term structural deflationary economic trends, cyclical inflation, technologies effect of reducing labour, MMT & how a CBDC could be used to generate high inflation, but a reduction in real growth.

    --

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    China Bans Crypto while Softbank and Tiger Global Move In Sep 25, 2021

    In this episode of the weekly round up, Mike and Mark cover stimulus payments, commercial bank lending, commodities, bankruptcies and liquidations, China's crypto ban and Softbank and Tiger Global's big move into digital assets.

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    Jim Bianco on Inflation, MMT, and DeFi's Disruption of Banking Sep 22, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin, Mike is joined by Jim Bianco. Jim founded Bianco Research, L.L.C in 1990 and has served as President and Macro Strategist for nearly 20 years. In this episode Jim and Mike discuss inflation, MMT, the digital currency revolution and how DeFi can fix inefficiencies in the legacy banking system.


    __

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.


    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC.


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    Evergrande Implosion, Crypto vs Internet Growth, 800 Year History of Inflation Sep 18, 2021

    In this weekly round up, Mike and Mark get deep into the Evergrande saga. They take a look at credit conditions in China's property sector, and dive into whether or not contagion is likely to spread into adjacent markets. They also cover Tesla and SpaceX, the adoption curve of crypto vs the internet, and the talent migration coming into digital assets.

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    The Colliding Worlds of Macro and Crypto | Dan Tapiero Sep 15, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin Mike is joined by Dan Tapiero. We invited Dan back to the podcast to discuss his recent $750 million capital raise for the 10T digital asset fund. With over 20 years in the hedge fund business working at firms such as Tiger Management, Steinhardt Partners & SAC Capital, Dan shares his thoughts on the current macro environment, how 10T approaches investing in crypto companies, the exponential growth of the digital asset ecosystem & the road to a $300,000 Bitcoin.

    ---

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    US China Cold War Heats Up, SEC Sues Coinbase | Weekly Roundup Sep 11, 2021

    In this week's round up, Mike and Mark cover US investing activity in China, Soros' op-ed on Blackrock's investment decisions in China, and the SEC's decision to sue Coinbase over its lend product.

    ---

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    The Link Between Housing and Wealth Inequality Sep 08, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin, Mike is joined by Bill Blain. Bill is a strategist, specializing in alternative assets at Shard Capital, the award winning investment and asset management firm based in London, UK. Bill is also an industry recognized financial journalist, writing the daily newsletter 'Blain's Morning Porridge'. In this episode, Mike and Bill discuss the recent labor shortage and its effect on inflation, troubles in the U.S housing market, wealth inequality & if cryptocurrencies are a solution in search of a problem.

    ---

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    Paulson Calls Crypto Worthless, Gensler Crackdown, FTX.US Acquisition Sep 04, 2021

    In this weekly round up Mike welcomes new co-host Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek to the mix. Mike and Mark discuss expensive equity market valuations, slack in the labor market, John Paulson's comments on crypto, Gary Gensler's comments on crypto, and FTX.US plans for world domination.

    ---

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    The Long Term Debt Cycle's Impact on the Economy / Darius Dale Sep 01, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Darius Dale. Darius is the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm aiming to democratize the access to institutional-grade research, allowing investors to take advantage of changing market narratives using data driven signals. In this episode, Darius shares his thoughts on how investors should prepare for a slowdown in global growth, a rise in secular inflation, navigating both financial volatility and political risk, the fourth turning and the future of the U.S dollar.

    ---

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    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

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    Powell Suggests Tapering, NFTs Boom, and Layer 1 Wars Heat Up Aug 28, 2021

    In this episode of the round up, Mike and Tyler discuss rising wages, home prices, the impact of Powell's suggestion to taper, the booming NFT market, and the layer 1 wars that are starting to heat up.

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.

    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

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    SHOW LESS





    How Credit Expansion Impacts Growth | Alfonso Peccatiello Aug 25, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello. Alfonso is the author of the weekly online newsletter The Macro Compass. Alfonso shares his thoughts on the signs of slowing structural growth, financial repression, the effect of quantitative easing, reverse repos and how a Bitcoin standard would affect a credit driven economy.

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.

    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

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    Binance Implements KYC, OnlyFans Bans Porn, Jay Clayton Signs onto Fireblocks Aug 21, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin, Mike and Tyler cover Binance’s regulatory issues, OnlyFans ban on pornography, and Jay Clayton joining Fireblocks’ board.

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.

    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

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    Bitcoin, Inflation and the Future of Investing - Peter Doyle Aug 18, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin, Mike is joined by Peter Doyle the Managing Director, President & Co-Founder of Kinetics Mutual Funds, Inc. Peter weighs in on his thoughts surrounding the bailouts in 2020, navigating the risk of secular inflation, negative real returns for bonds and how Bitcoin could benefit society in the long run.

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.

    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

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    Financial nihilism and political volatility | Demetri Kofinas Aug 11, 2021

    In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Demetri Kofinas, a media entrepreneur, financial analyst and host of the renowned Hidden Forces podcast. Demetri discusses a wide range of topics from financial nihilism, political volatility, the fourth turning, China vs U.S relations and what prospects decentralization can offer to society.

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.

    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

    Blockworks' upcoming conference Bretton Woods: The Realignment, is a 250 person exec only summit at the original Bretton Woods Hotel to discuss the future of the monetary system. Apply here to attend and learn more.

    https://blockworks.co/events/brettonwoods/

    ---

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    Fidelity Director of Macro on Financial Repression and Bitcoin Aug 04, 2021

    In this episode Mike is joined by Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity. Jurrien discusses the markets' record high valuations, inflation's effect on bond yields, financial repression, Bitcoin and Plan B's stock to flow model. Taking a 10,000 foot view, Jurrien highlights how investors can prepare for this period of financial repression and generate returns in a high debt, low yield environment.

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.

    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

    Blockworks' upcoming conference Bretton Woods: The Realignment, is a 250 person exec only summit at the original Bretton Woods Hotel to discuss the future of the monetary system. Apply here to attend and learn more.

    https://blockworks.co/events/brettonwoods/

    ---

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    Globalization, Decentralization & Innovation post COVID | Pippa Malmgren Jul 28, 2021

    We couldn't be more thrilled in welcoming Pippa Malmgren to On The Margin who shares valuable insights on the effects of globalization, financialization, creative destruction, debt restructuring, the effects of innovation and crypto fits into her outlook. You are not going to want to miss this one!

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.

    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

    Blockworks' upcoming conference Bretton Woods: The Realignment, is a 250 person exec only summit at the original Bretton Woods Hotel to discuss the future of the monetary system. Apply here to attend and learn more.

    https://blockworks.co/brettonwoods/margin

    ---

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    The Roundup: JP Morgan Offers Crypto, China Education Clampdown, Evergrande Debt Reckoning Jul 24, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin, Mike and Tyler discussed JP Morgan's new crypto stock offering, China's clampdown on education companies, and Evergrande's growing debt concerns and the potential connection to Tether.

    Special Note: This week we are debuting a NEW format. Give us your thoughts in the comments and let us know what you liked (or hated!)

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.

    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

    Blockworks' upcoming conference Bretton Woods: The Realignment, is a 250 person exec only summit at the original Bretton Woods Hotel to discuss the future of the monetary system. Apply here to attend and learn more.

    https://blockworks.co/brettonwoods/margin

    ---

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    Jeff Snider on the Eurodollar System's Impact on Inflation Jul 21, 2021

    In this episode I am joined by Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investments. We discussed why the biggest problem we are facing today is a dollar shortage, the makeup and history of the Eurodollar system, the tensions inherent to being the issuer of the global reserve currency, wealth inequality, his thoughts on inflation vs deflation, and finally the growth of the crypto ecosystem.

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.

    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

    Blockworks' upcoming conference Bretton Woods: The Realignment, is a 250 person exec only summit at the original Bretton Woods Hotel to discuss the future of the monetary system. Apply here to attend and learn more.

    https://blockworks.co/brettonwoods/margin

    ---

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    The Roundup: Larry Finks Calls for Inflation, Powell's Speech, Bank Earnings Jul 17, 2021

    In this round up, Tyler, Mike and Casey cover Larry Fink's call for sustained inflation, June's 5.4% CPI print, Powell's speech, the relationship between the Fed and Treasury, bank earnings, and finally where the crypto market is.

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.

    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

    Blockworks' upcoming conference Bretton Woods: The Realignment, is a 250 person exec only summit at the original Bretton Woods Hotel to discuss the future of the monetary system. Apply here to attend and learn more.

    https://blockworks.co/brettonwoods/margin

    ---

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    Teddy Vallee on the Dollar, Equities and Bitcoin Jul 14, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin, I am joined by Teddy Vallee of Pervalle Global Capital to discuss his views on the various asset classes. We cover his views on the dollar, what a strong and weak dollar would mean for the economies, his framework for analyzing equities, his thoughts on volatility, and finally Bitcoin and crypto as an asset class.


    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.


    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

    Blockworks' upcoming conference Bretton Woods: The Realignment, is a 250 person exec only summit at the original Bretton Woods Hotel to discuss the future of the monetary system. Apply here to attend and learn more.

    https://blockworks.co/brettonwoods/margin

    ---

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    The Roundup: Inflation vs Deflation, Crypto Exchanges, and Commercial Bank Lending Jul 10, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin, Mike and Tyler are joined by Blockworks reporter Casey Wagner to discuss a debate on inflation vs deflation, the future of crypto exchanges and banks, and the lack of lending coming from commercial banks.

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.


    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

    Blockworks' upcoming conference Bretton Woods: The Realignment, is a 250 person exec only summit at the original Bretton Woods Hotel to discuss the future of the monetary system. Apply here to attend and learn more.

    https://blockworks.co/brettonwoods/margin

    ---

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    Xi's Fiery Speech, Jobs Report, NYDIG World Domination Jul 03, 2021

    In this week's episode, Mike and Tyler covered Xi Jinping's 100th Anniversary speech, the jobs report, and NYDIG's recent spate of partnerships that make it one of the most important companies in crypto.


    Also, referenced in this week's episode is this clip from Charlie Munger who agrees with the CCP censoring Jack Ma.

    https://twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1410943453228306433

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.


    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

    Blockworks' upcoming conference Bretton Woods: The Realignment, is a 250 person exec only summit at the original Bretton Woods Hotel to discuss the future of the monetary system. Apply here to attend and learn more.

    https://blockworks.co/brettonwoods/margin

    ---

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    Tyler Neville on the Biggest Trends in Macro Jun 30, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin I am joined by my co-host Tyler to discuss the biggest macro trends he sees playing out today. We discussed his background in finance, the rise of passive, the changing role of volatility, the shift from capital to labor, and the rise of digital assets and the role they play in the growth story.

    ---

    On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.


    With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport

    ---

    Blockworks' upcoming conference Bretton Woods: The Realignment, is a 250 person exec only summit at the original Bretton Woods Hotel to discuss the future of the monetary system. Apply here to attend and learn more.

    https://blockworks.co/brettonwoods/margin

    ---

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    a16z Raises $2.2 Billion, Stocks Hit All Time Highs, Oil Rally Continues Jun 26, 2021

    Mike and Tyler kick off this episode of On the Margin with a SHAMELESS PLUG for Blockworks' upcoming conference Bretton Woods: The Realignment.

    It's a 250 person exec only summit at the original Bretton Woods Hotel to discuss the future of the monetary system. Apply here to attend and learn more.

    For this week's episode, Mike and Tyler cover a16z's $2.2 billion raise, the price-innovation cycle in crypto, US stocks hitting all time highs, oil's continued run up, and finally Robinhood rolling out IPO allocations.

    ---

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    Anthony Scaramucci on Investing, Bitcoin and the Future of America Jun 23, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin, I sit down with Anthony Scaramucci to discuss his early career, the founding of Skybridge, his move into Bitcoin, his thoughts on other crypto assets, and the future of America.

    ---

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    FOMC Review, $1 Billion MicroStrategy Offering, Oil Hits Two Year High Jun 19, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin, Mike and Tyler discuss why assets are predicting deflation post FOMC, why a high correlation between stocks and bonds means the death of the 60/40 portfolio, the $1 billion equity offering by Microstrategy, and the implications for the economy of rising oil prices.

    ---

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    Inflation Hits 5%, BlackRock Gets Too Big, and Anti Trust Comes for Amazon Jun 12, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin, Mike and Tyler cover the record CPI print showing 5% inflation, BlackRock and other institutional investors scooping up single-family homes, the Anti Trust bill that would break up Amazon, and El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as legal tender.


    Inflation & the Coming Bull Run in Gold, Silver & Commodities | Tavi Costa Jun 09, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin I am joined by Tavi Costa, Portfolio Manager on Crescat Capital. In this episode, Tavi breaks down his view on why we may be headed towards inflation, the three pillars of inflation, and why he thinks we are headed for a bull run in gold, silver and other commodities.

    ---

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    Disappointing Jobs Report, Fed Unwinds Corporate Bonds, and Generational Inequality for Millenials Jun 05, 2021

    In this week's round up, Mike and Tyler cover the disappointing US jobs report and the market's reaction to it. In the month of May, the US added 559,000 jobs compared to expectations of 650,000. The funny thing? Stocks traded up.

    They also covered the Fed's unwinding of its corporate bond purchases and the possibility of tapering, investor activism in Exxon, and a Bloomberg article on inequality between Baby Boomers, Gen X, and Millenials.

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    Brent Johnson On Whether Inflation is Transitory or Enduring Jun 02, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin, Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital discusses his views on whether or not CPI inflation is transitory or here to stay.


    We cover Brent's view on the most recent CPI and PCE prints, why consumer prices are ticking up, and whether or not he thinks we are headed for inflation or deflation. We also did a review of Brent's famous "dollar milkshake theory," the impact of fiscal and monetary stimulus on the dollar, and why he believes a strong dollar is dangerous for global markets.

    ---

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    $453 Billion Reverse Repo, China Restricts Commodities, Inflation Ticks Up, AMC Soars May 29, 2021

    In this week's episode of on the Margin, we cover:

    ・The $453 billion that has flown into the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility

    ・Why there is too much liquidity in the system, and what that means for bonds and quantitative easing

    ・China's crackdown on Bitcoin, and how the real problem might be rising commodity prices and inflation

    ・Core PCE rose higher than expected, and Tyler and Mike disagree on whether or not inflation is transitory

    ・Financial nihilism with the rise of meme stocks like AMC and GameStop


    We also detailed a first of its kind conference called Bretton Woods: The Realignment. The conference is dedicated to addressing the past, present and future of the monetary system.

    Held at the same hotel as the original conference, leading economists, asset managers and financial institutions will gather to discuss what the future of the money will look like.

    ---

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    Steve Van Metre on Why QE Will Cause More Deflation May 26, 2021

    In this week's episode, Steve Van Metre presents the other side of the popular macro narrative that inflation is coming. Steve's analysis is heavily focused on QE, and how that program is designed to cause lower interest and a stronger dollar. In this episode we cover how the mechanism behind QE works, why it traps dollars in the system, and how that ultimately leads to deflation.

    ---

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    The Roundup: Crypto Market Sell-Off, Fed Tapering, S&P and Treasury Correlation May 22, 2021

    In this week's round up, Mike and Tyler cover crypto's massive sell off, how to contextualize it, and what comes next. They also discuss the first whispers of tapering from the Fed, a twenty year high in correlation between equities and bonds, and China SRO's reiterating the ban on trading crypto.

    ---

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    A High Yield Bond Trader Describes the Bull Case for Bitcoin May 19, 2021

    In this episode Greg Foss of 3iQ presents the ultimate macro case for Bitcoin. Greg was the first high yield bond trader in Canada, and comes at Bitcoin from a very math-oriented and macro perspective. We cover his time working as a trader, his framework for assessing the bond market, why the market for credit default swaps is so important, and why Bitcoin is a critical tool for hedging against an uncertain future.

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    The Roundup: Elon Dumps Bitcoin, Justice Department Looks Into Binance May 14, 2021

    This week: Elon announces that Tesla will stop allowing customers to pay in Bitcoin, the US Department of Justice and IRS look into Binance, and Stan Druckenmiller predicts the currency will lose reserve status in 15 years.

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    Mike Green Explains the US-China Relationship and the State of the American Dream May 12, 2021

    In this episode I am joined by Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management for a discussion on the US China relationship. We covered the rise of China and its key strategic objectives, how the US faces challenges internally, rising inequality as a vector of attack, the relationship between capital and labor, and finally a path forward for the future.


    ----


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    The Roundup: Banks Offer Bitcoin, Cathie Wood's ARK Stumbles May 08, 2021

    This week in macro: NYDIG rolls out Bitcoin to "hundreds of US banks," Goldman and Citi mull trading desks, and Cathie Wood's ARK ETF dips 30%.


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    Ted Seides Breaks Down the Business of Hedge Funds May 05, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin I am joined by Ted Seides, co-founder at Protege Partners and host of the Capital Allocators podcast. In this episode, we discuss his past experience working under David Swensen at Yale, the creation of the Endowment Model, the current state of the hedge fund industry, and Ted's thoughts on Bitcoin.

    ----

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    The Roundup: Negative Rates Hit US, Nexon Buys Bitcoin, ETH Outperforms May 01, 2021

    This week in macro: rates on 1 month issued US treasuries turned negative, South Korean gaming company Nexon bought $100 million in Bitcoin, Eth went on a run, and Germany embraced crypto.


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    Danielle DiMartino Booth on When the Fed Crossed the Rubicon Apr 28, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin, Danielle DiMartino Booth brings her deep historical knowledge of the Fed to a wide-ranging discussion of the economy. We cover the evolving role of the Federal Reserve, how the Fed "missed its chance" to normalize markets, the worsening relationship between the US and China, and her opinions on inflation vs deflation.

    ----

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    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    The Roundup: Capital Gains Tax proposed to Jump to 39.6% Apr 24, 2021

    This week in macro: Biden proposes to raise the capital gains tax to 39.6%, we're seeing the beginnings of soft commodity inflation, Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital might buy BitGo, and Coinbase Pro announces support for Tether's Ethereum based USDT Stablecoin. All this and more on this week’s roundup with Michael Ippolito and Tyler Neville.

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    Luke Gromen on the Unwinding of the Monetary System Apr 21, 2021

    Luke Gromen, Founder and CEO at Forrest for the Trees LLC, joins us for this episode of On the Margin to discuss his view of the monetary system. We cover the bubble in sovereign debt, how the petrodollar system was established, the fracturing relationship between the US and China, and finally the role Bitcoin and gold may play in the future.

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    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    The Roundup: Yield Curve Control, Coinbase IPO, and Uniswap V3 Apr 17, 2021

    This week in macro: Treasury yields fell to 1.5%, a possible sign of yield curve control. Then Dan Loeb and Brevan Howard started investing in Bitcoin, Coinbase debuted its direct listing, and Uniswap announced v3. All this and more on this week’s roundup with Michael Ippolito and Tyler Neville.

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    Jeff Booth on the Link Between Inflation and Inequality Apr 14, 2021

    My guest this week is investor, entrepreneur and author Jeff Booth. Jeff's main observation is as simple as it is profound: we live in a deflationary world that depends on inflation for economic growth. How can we reconcile those two ideas?

    In short, we can't. In this episode we covered the powerful deflationary impacts of deflation, the inflationary structure of our current monetary system, how government meddling is leading to inequality, and how Bitcoin may lead us to a brighter future.

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    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    The Roundup: Peter Thiel Calls Bitcoin "Financial Weapon," Stock Buybacks, & Coinbase Earnings Apr 10, 2021

    This week in macro: Peter Thiel calls bitcoin a "Financial Weapon," US share buybacks are picking up, Coinbase released their Q1 earnings, and State Street is lending its technology to institutional trading platforms. All this and more on this week’s roundup with Michael Ippolito and Tyler Neville.

    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    Lily Francus on How the Growth of Options is Reshaping Market Structure Apr 07, 2021

    In this episode of On the Margin, I sit down with Lily Francus to discuss the rapid expansion of the options market. We discussed the Fed's impact on the market, what is driving the growth in options, how options suck liquidity out of the market, and their impact on volatility.

    Lily is one of the sharpest minds I've spoken to, especially when it comes to market structure. I hope you all learn as much as I did.

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    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    The Roundup: Archegos Meltdown, Biden's $2 Trillion Plan, and Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Funds Apr 03, 2021

    This week in macro: Biden $2 Trillion Infrastructure Plan, Leveraged Blow Up at Archegos Capital Management, and Visa moves to settle payments in USDC. All this and more on this week’s roundup with Michael Ippolito and Tyler Neville.


    If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter


    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    Grant Williams Reveals the End Game for Central Bank Money Printing Mar 31, 2021

    My guest this week is Grant Williams, Founder of Things that Make You Go Hmm. We covered his views on the end game of central bank money printing, the inflation vs deflation debate, his views on gold and bitcoin, and finally whether or not we are going through a Fourth Turning.

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    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On The Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    The Roundup: Sovereign wealth funds eye Bitcoin & Fidelity files for ETF Mar 27, 2021

    This week in Macro: Fidelity Files for a Bitcoin ETF, the sixth recent filing for an ETF behind WisdomTree Investments, VanEck Associates, NYDIG Asset Mgmt, Valkyrie Digital Assets, and First Advisors / Skybridge. Meanwhile, GBTC is trading at 14% discount to NAV as BlockFi lowers interest rates on BTC and ETH. All this and more on this week’s roundup with Michael Ippolito and Tyler Neville.

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    If you like this video be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter


    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    Dan Tapiero Explains the Drivers Behind Bitcoin's Explosive Growth Mar 24, 2021

    My guest today is Dan Tapiero, Co-Founder and CEO at 10T Holdings. Dan has one of the most impressive pedigrees of any investor I've ever met. He cut his teeth working with Julian Robertson, which we get into detail about during the episode, but he's also worked closely with Stan Druckenmiller, Steve Cohen, and others.

    In this episode, we cover an overview of Dan's investing philosophy, his thoughts on the current macro environment, his entry into digital assets, and how that all led him to co-found his current fund 10T Holdings.

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    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On The Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    The Roundup: Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Move, Powell's Speech, and India's Ban Mar 20, 2021

    This week in Macro: The 10-year yield hit 1.75% this week after the Fed had their open markets committee. Then Morgan Stanley announced that their wealthy clients would have access to bitcoin funds, after it was rumored they would acquire a significant stake in Bithumb.

    Internationally, India proposed a ban on cryptocurrency which would effectively make it illegal to mine or trade. All this and more on this weeks roundup with Tyler Neville and Michael Ippolito from Blockworks.

    ---

    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    If you like this conversation be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

    Lyn Alden explains the connection between inflation and Bitcoin Mar 17, 2021

    My guest today is Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy.

    On this episode of On The Margin, we discuss the transition of monetary to fiscal dominance, Lyn's thoughts on inflation, the implications of a steepening yield curve, what she would do as chairman of the Federal Reserve, and her thoughts on the growing digital asset ecosystem.

    ---

    On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On The Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.

    Introducing: On the Margin with Michael Ippolito Mar 12, 2021

    Every Wednesday, Michael Ippolito sits down with the most gifted minds in macro to discuss current events in markets, asset management, and the continued adoption of digital assets.


    Every Saturday, Michael and Tyler Neville, Senior Editor at Blockworks, recap the week's most significant relevant news.


    This is On the Margin. Our first interview goes live March 17, 2021, and our first recap on March 20.

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