Mutiny Investing Podcast

57. Sequencing Risk: Why The Expected Value Is Not What You Should Expect | Cockroach Strategy (Part 2) Jun 26, 2024

In this second episode of the Cockroach Series, Jason Buck (Mutiny CIO) and Taylor Pearson (Mutiny CEO) delve into the intricacies of sequencing risk and its profound impact on portfolio construction.

They explore concepts like expected value, ergodicity, and the importance of return order on investment outcomes. Whether you're planning for retirement or just starting your investment journey, this discussion offers valuable insights on how to navigate and mitigate the unpredictability of financial markets.

Please see our Insights Page for blog posts featuring notes from the Cockroach Approach whitepaper. Additionally, you can access the Cockroach Approach summary and download your own copy of the whitepaper!

56. Is the Stock Market Really as Predictable as You Think? Decoding the Cockroach Strategy (Part 1) May 10, 2024

In this episode, Jason Buck (Mutiny CIO) and Taylor Pearson (Mutiny CEO) embark on the first of a series discussing the Cockroach Strategy. They are excited to share insights into the decade-long development of this strategy. Jason and Taylor explore the probabilities of loss over extended time horizons, shedding light on often overlooked aspects of investment planning. They also discuss real returns and the influence of global economic trends on investment outcomes.

The discussion kicks off with an exploration of stocks, the cornerstone of the Cockroach Strategy, setting the stage for a deeper dive into its principles and construction.

Please see our Insights Page for blog posts featuring notes from the Cockroach Approach whitepaper. Additionally, you can access the Cockroach Approach summary and download your own copy of the whitepaper!

55. Mutiny Funds - The Defense Strategy Oct 13, 2023

We are excited to introduce a new addition to our suite of investment strategies - The Defense Strategy.

It combines Mutiny Fund’s Volatility Strategy and Commodity Trend Strategy. The Volatility Strategy is designed to act as a so-called ‘black swan’ investment, achieving asymmetric gains in times of high volatility or tail risk (e.g. March 2020). The Commodity Trend Strategy is designed to profit during inflationary periods (e.g. 2022) as well as during extended ‘crisis periods’ for stocks and bonds (e.g. 2008).

In combining these two exposures, the Defense Strategy seeks to achieve flat to slightly positive returns during positive periods for stock and bond portfolios while providing its most significant returns in periods of equity market drawdowns or high inflation.

The Defense Strategy is part of the holistic Cockroach Strategy and is intended as a diversifier to be combined with offensive assets in an investor’s portfolio such as stocks, bonds, and private equity.

In this podcast, Jason Buck (Mutiny CIO) and Taylor Pearson (Mutiny CEO) talk through how and why we developed the Defense Strategy and the role we believe it can serve in investors’ portfolios.

54. Kris Abdelmessih - Alpha is Illusive Aug 29, 2023

In this episode, I talk with Kris Abdelmessih, Volatility Trader and also the Author of Moontower Weekly.

Kris has been actively involved in options trading for 21 years. His background encompasses commencing his journey within the trading pits alongside SIG, establishing his personal market-making team, and overseeing the commodities book for a distinguished volatility manager.

We talk about:

Adverse Selection
Discretionary Edge?
Manager Fee Alpha
Confidence Intervals
Life Optionality and more!

This podcast was recorded at the Edgewood Resort, situated by the serene Lake Tahoe, where a wonderful private event was organized by Collective.

Collective is a curated community investors and entrepreneurs eager for in-person experiences, authentic connections, and idea sharing.

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Kris as much as I did!

53. Robert Mullin - Upstream Downstream Jul 27, 2023

In this episode, I talk with Robert Mullin from Marathon Resource Advisors. Robert is a finance professional with 25+ years of experience managing natural resource investment portfolios for individuals, family offices and institutions.

We talk about:

State of commodity producers
Tangential investing ideas
Problems in Europe
Yield farming and more!

This podcast was recorded at the stunning Edgewood Resort, situated by the serene Lake Tahoe, where a wonderful private event was organized by Collective.

Collective is a curated community investors and entrepreneurs eager for in-person experiences, authentic connections, and idea sharing.

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Robert as much as I did!

52. PJ Pierre & Zed Francis - Are any banks solvent? Jun 27, 2023

In this episode, I have the privilege of engaging in a captivating conversation with two distinguished guests. First, we have PJ Pierre, the Vice President of Trading and Portfolio Management at Denali Asset Management. Joining us alongside PJ is Zed Francis, the esteemed co-founder and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Convexitas.

Topics:

Are any banks solvent?
Insure all deposits?
Start a bank?
Debt Ceiling Trades?
Jubilee, reset, revolt...choose wisely and more!

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with PJ & Zed as much as I did!

Global EQD ’23 Breakdown with Jeff Malec (part 2) Jun 16, 2023

Didn’t get the chance to head to Vegas for the Global EQD conference. No worries. We’ve got you covered in Part II of the Global EQD ’23 Breakdown.

We're teaming up with RCM Managing Partner and host of The Derivative Podcast, Jeff Malec. Together, Jeff and Jason walk through their notes from attending the annual equity derivatives-focused conference put on by the good folks at EQD. Make sure to head over to www.eqderivatives.com and signup for their official notes. Meanwhile, they go deep on many topics, from accessing commodity markets and traders in China, addressing liquidity concerns on execution desks, and exploring the nuances between variable annuities and index-linked annuity products. Jason and Jeff delve into alternative correlated hedges with cheaper volatility, examine volatility strategies in ETFs, and analyze the role of leverage in finance. Jason also shares his hot takes on various topics, including the allure of Las Vegas to the fascinating world of greenflation and energy, where wind farms and Dr. Copper play a significant role. No EQD stone is left unturned — SEND IT!

P.S. Head to Jeff's Derivative Podcast to catch up on part I of the Global EQD ’23 Breakdown. https://www.rcmalternatives.com/2023/06/global-eqd-23-breakdown-with-jason-buck-part-1/

51. Jared Dillian - Fintwit Bastards Apr 28, 2023

In this episode I talk with writer, author, DJ, and speaker, Jared Dillian.

Jared's newsletters include The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals, and We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards, which is about everything that is depraved, especially finance, culture and music.

His books include Street Freak, All the Evil of This World, Those Bastards, and No Worries (2024).

In his spare time, Jared is a progressive house DJ and speaks frequently on mental health issues at financial institutions.

We talk about:

Bet on Winners
USD
F.I.R.E.
Play the Tuba!
Cargo Shorts and more!

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Jared as much as I did!

50. Dr. David Rhoiney - Strategy That Fits Apr 14, 2023

In this episode I talk with Dr. David Rhoiney, a Robotic Surgeon, Cryptologist, Cyber security specialist and the list continues!

We talk about:

Unconscious Greatness
Strategy That Fits
HENRYs
Banks/RIA for the People
Bad Food Takes and more!

I hope you enjoyed this conversation as much as I did!

49. Tobias Carlisle - What is Money? Mar 28, 2023

In this episode I talk with Tobias Carlisle, founder and managing director of Acquirers Funds, LLC. He serves as portfolio manager of the firm's deep value strategy.

Tobias is the creator of The Acquirer’s Multiple®. He is also the author of the books The Acquirer’s Multiple (2017), Concentrated Investing (2016), Deep Value (2014), and Quantitative Value (2012).

Tobias has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.

We discuss:

SVB
What is Money?
Invincible Businesses
History as a Guide
Behavior is Water
Ergodicity in all Things and more!

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Tobias as much as I did!

48. Zed Francis - Will credit markets be tight or illiquid in 2023? Feb 13, 2023

In this episode I talk with Zed Francis, CIO & Co-Founder at Convexitas.

Zed is responsible for strategy design, implementation, risk management and business development. In his 15-year career in investment management, Zed has taken on leadership roles that have informed the delivery of consistent and transparent multi- asset solutions as a discretionary fiduciary acting on behalf of institutional clients and high-net-worth individuals. He was most recently a portfolio manager and derivative overlay manager at SpiderRock Advisors.

Previous engagements include portfolio management at institutional investment manager Legal & General Investment Management America and trading head at long/short distressed hedge fund Chicago Fundamental Investment Partners.

We discuss:

Will credit markets be tight or illiquid in 2023?
Was Q4 Tax Loss Harvesting and RMDs?
Do FOMC and CPI matter?
What happened to Gilts? (Now do Japan)
Illiquidity-> Correlation-> Volatility

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Zed as much as I did!

47. Tom Morgan - The Morgan Dialectic- STS Model Nov 29, 2022

In this episode I talk with Tom Morgan, Director of Communications & Content at The KCP Group - Stifel.

Tom spent the last 16 years on Wall Street working in the distribution of research for firms like Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, Consumer Edge, and Stifel. Tom is someone who inquisitively consumes content across a huge array of disciplines and extracts actionable insights for busy people. For most of the past decade, Tom wrote a weekly summary titled “The Best Bits,” which had a wide following in investment and non-investment circles.

We discuss:

The Morgan Dialectic- STS Model
Left Brain vs. Right Brain
Cooperation vs Self Interest
The Way of the Taoist

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Tom as much as I did!

46. The Meb Faber Show – Carry, Convexity & The Cockroach Oct 26, 2022

We've got a special edition podcast this week!

A little while back, Jason sat down with his friend Meb Faber to talk about all things investing. For those who didn't get a chance to listen to it, we thought we'd do a swapcast version so that way you could hear Meb and Jason discuss all things related to broadly diversified portfolios, different investing philosophies, and different investing vehicles that an entrepreneur could put together for clients.

I hope you enjoy this conversation with Meb!

45. Robert Mullin: Commodities with Carry and Convexity Oct 12, 2022

In this episode I talk with Robert Mullin, general partner and portfolio manager at Marathon Resource Advisors.

Marathon Resource Advisors manages investment strategies focused on income generating natural resource equities in the energy, mining, agriculture and renewables space.

We talk about:

CapEx Perfect Storm
ESG is New OPEC
Fake vs. Real Economy
Hedging Cyclical Risk in a Secular Bull

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Robert as much as I did!

44. Travis Kimmel: Competing Time Horizons of Money Sep 28, 2022

In this episode I talk with Travis Kimmel.

Our topics include:

Operator Use Liberal Arts
Intellectual Dojo of Twitter
SAAS Treasuries
Why Do We Have Bonds?
And more!

This is the link to Travis' favorite book on management we discussed: 12: The Elements of Great Managing

Travis' best book he has read in finance: Trade Wars Are Class Wars

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Travis as much as I did!

43. Bill Brewster: Road Trips and Scuttlebutt Sep 14, 2022

In this episode I talk with Bill Brewster from The Business Brew.

Bill is a private investor who tries to replicate Warren Buffett’s and Charlie Munger’s thought processes, but he is also influenced by Bill Miller III, Stan Druckenmiller, and others. The Business Brew podcast is his attempt to dig deeper into other investing and business philosophies — and share that knowledge with the world.

We talk about:

Road Trips give Political Sentiments
DCFs vs Monte Carlos
MailBox Money
The Business of Podcasting
Elusive Buffett and more!

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Bill as much as I did!

42. Sean Wieland: Tax Free Business Exit Aug 30, 2022

In this episode I talk with Sean Wieland, Founding Principal at Tannhäuser Financial.

We talk about:

Deferred Sales Trusts for business exit
Pre and Post sale of your business
Premium financing life insurance
Captive Insurance
401-H and more!

Here is the online illustration tool to compare any highly appreciated asset sale (exiting a business, commercial real estate / 1031 rescue, cryptocurrency, fine art, etc.)

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Sean as much as I did!

41. Drew Knowles: Yellowstone is Global Macro Trading Aug 17, 2022

In this episode I talk with Drew Knowles, managing member of XIT Ranch. XIT is long-term oriented family investment vehicle including real assets such as ranchlands, horses and cattle operations, venture capital, private equity, and hedge funds.

We talk about:

Never Ask a Cattleman Size of Herd,
Hay shortages,
Levels of ranching certifications,
Carbon Sequestration,
Global Macro-End of the World Vol Trade and more!

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Drew as much as I did!

40. Wayne Himelsein: 2022 - Year of Unusual Volatility? Aug 09, 2022

In this episode I talk with Wayne Himelsein, CIO of Logica Capital Advisers.

Wayne is responsible for leading portfolio management and the overall implementation of the firm’s investment strategies. Beginning his career as a Proprietary Trader in 1995, and launching his first Hedge Fund in 2000, Wayne has over 25 years of industry experience.

We talk about the following:

Is time real?
What is signal vs noise?
Where to find great quotes?
2022- Year of unusual volatility?
Existential risks to hedge funds.

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Wayne as much as I did!

39. Noel Smith & Darrin Johnson: How to Turn Pro as a Trader Jul 27, 2022

In this episode I talk with Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & Founder at Convex Asset Management as well as Volatility trader, Darrin Johnson.

We talk about How to Turn Pro as a Trader, How to Join a Prop Shop, How to Run a Prop Shop, The Business Side of Running a Trading Business, How to Build Relationships from Scratch and more!

I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Noel and Darrin as much as I did!

38. Evolution, Complexity, and the Remaking of Economics Jul 19, 2022

We have a special podcast for you today. We're getting the Mutiny team together. Taylor and I are doing a podcast together for the first time in a long time.

We discuss Complexity Economics, Sugarscapes, Adaptive Walks vs Random Jumps, Bullwhip Effects, Spherical Cow Problem and more!

Links mentioned in this show:

I hope you enjoy this conversation with Taylor as much as I did...

37. Max Arb Jul 12, 2022

In this episode, I talk with Max Arb - @max_arbitrage.

Max is anonymous on Twitter and is a doctor that has built, sold, and still runs several successful medical practices. We talk about generational wealth transfer of businesses, how to manage investment allocations, Via Negativa, balance sheet vs. income statement, and cognitive biases.

I hope you enjoy this conversation with Max as much as I did...

36. Devin Anderson Jun 29, 2022

In this episode, I talk with Devin Anderson, CEO and co-founder of Convexitas.

Devin is an investment manager dedicated to delivering high performance derivative overlays for families and institutions. He is responsible for firm governance, compliance, business development, and technology.

Devin and I talk about Google AI bot sentience, syntax vs. semantics, Turing test, AI-Pascal's wager, sell side research into option flows, Man+Machine in Vol trading and much more!

Links mentioned in this show:

I hope you enjoy this conversation with Devin as much as I did...

35. Eric Crittenden Jun 21, 2022

In this episode, I talk with Eric Crittenden, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Standpoint, an investment firm focused on bringing all-weather portfolio solutions to US investors.

Eric plays an active role in the firms’ research, portfolio management, product innovation, business strategy, environments and client facing activities. He believes using an all-wealth approach is the most effective way to prepare for a wide rage of market environments, while producing meaningful investment returns with limited downside risk.

Eric has over 20 years experience researching, designing, and managing alternative asset portfolios on behalf of families, individuals, financial advisors, and other institution investors.

Eric and I talk about circuitous paths with multi-year dead-end rabbit holes, simplicity can be the ultimate sophistication, what do clients want? What's wrong with the investing industry, strategy scaling?

For people who want to understand the capital efficiency argument, this is helpful: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Portfolio 1 = a blend of the more popular managed futures strategies
Portfolio 2 = 100% Portfolio 1 + 50% global equities. Equities come at the expense of T-bills
Portfolio 3 = standpoint

Towards the end, Eric was referencing a bond video. Here’s the link: https://www.standpointfunds.com/content/bond-return-simulator

I hope you enjoy this conversation with Eric as much as I did...

34. Darrin Johnson Jun 14, 2022

In this episode, I talk with Volatility trader, Darrin Johnson.

Darrin and I talk about all the things that traders never discuss. The dual role of being an independent trader and a family man and if balance is possible. What it's like to have your trader P&L also be your families balance sheet and what to do when you need a vacation.

I hope you enjoy this conversation with Darrin as much as I did...

What happens in Vegas…. Gets Dished on this Pod. Overheard at a Derivatives Conference, Part 2 Jun 09, 2022

Welcome to part two of the special edition podcast, What Happens in Vegas, where RCM's Jeff Malec @AttainCap2 and I discuss the EQ Derivatives conference that we recently attended at the Las Vegas Wynn Hotel.

I highly recommend you go over to the Derivative podcast and check out part one of our discussion.

I also recommend you check out EQ Derivatives. It's a tremendous source for volatility options and all forms of derivatives trading.

I hope you enjoy this conversation with Jeff as much as I did…

33. Corey Hoffstein May 31, 2022

In this episode, I talk with Corey Hoffstein, co-founder of and Chief Investment Officer at Newfound Research.

Newfound Research LLC is a quantitative investment and research firm dedicated to helping investors pro-actively navigate the risks of investing through thought leadership and investment acumen.

At Newfound, Corey is responsible for portfolio management, investment research, strategy development, and communication of the firm's views to clients. Corey holds a Master of Science in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University and a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science, cum laude, from Cornell University.

I hope you enjoy this conversation with Corey as much as I did...

32. PJ Pierre May 16, 2022

In this episode, I talk with PJ Pierre from Denali Asset Management.

PJ and I talk about MMT as taught to him by Warren Mosler. Being an autodidact trader. How banks create money. The different forms of money as credit historically. What is the Haitian dollar. I hope you enjoy this conversation with PJ as much as I did...

31. Zed Francis May 09, 2022

In this episode, I talk with Zed Francis, co-founder and CIO of Convexitas. Convexitas is a fiduciary that works with families and institutions to maintain balance and flexibility.

Convexitas is more than a manager or a product – they provide tools that bring balance to your allocation process.

When you know Convexitas will provide liquidity during times of distress, you are free to make better allocation decisions and avoid becoming a forced seller.

Liquidity enables proactive opportunity capture without the fear of inopportune liquidations to service capital calls, charitable obligations, or financing lifestyle.

Zed and I talk about the current rhetoric that is still focused on buying the dip. We talk about his recent essay The Storm Provides, what happens when you have end of day rebalancing creating vol smashes. His thoughts on: housing market, inflation affecting correlations, and cash efficient portfolios. I hope you enjoy this conversation with Zed as much as I did...

30. Kris Sidial May 02, 2022

In this episode, I talk with Kris Sidial, Co-CIO at The Ambrus Group. The Ambrus Group is a volatility arbitrage focused firm that was founded in 2020. The firm takes pride in having a math-driven ethos that specializes in leveraging an in-depth knowledge of volatility skew. Ambrus applies a discretionary twist to quantitative volatility strategies with the purpose of protecting investors from tail risk events in the U.S equity markets.

Kris and I talk about "buy the dip" dynamics to markets. Can a hedged market crash? The no ego style of managing a Hedge Fund. Opportunities for retail investors in areas that institutions will not touch. How did he trade the VXX dislocation.

I hope you enjoy this conversation with Kris as much as I did...

29. Jerry Haworth Dec 17, 2021

In this episode, we talk with Jerry Haworth, CIO and co-founder of 36 South. Jerry has over 32 years of investment experience, and is well known for his thought leadership in the volatility space. He often represents 36 South as a speaker at high profile educational and professional events, and is a frequent guest speaker and writer on volatility in the financial media. 36 South seeks out long dated, pan asset class, global, convexity in the most cost efficient manner.

We talk about Jerry’s background, starting with the nascent options market in South Africa. We go through the highlights on how options markets have evolved over decades. Why does he believe that long term options are the best way to play Vega. How to construct an options book and overlay with other assets. Jerry is always full of great anecdotes and analogies from a colorful personal trading history.

I hope you enjoy Jerry’s insights as much as I did...

28. John Krautsack Nov 16, 2021

In this episode, I talk with John Krautsack. John is the Chairman and CEO of EMC Capital Advisors.

John and I talk about the history of EMC going all the way back to the unbelievable story of the Turtle Traders. We touch on how EMC has adapted their trend following models over the decades. We discuss how advancements in machine learning and artificial intelligence have helped their in-house team improve their risk assessments and monetization.

I hope you enjoy this conversation with John as much as I did...

27. Tim Pickering Jul 14, 2021

In this episode, I talk with Tim Pickering. Tim is the founder, President and CIO of Auspice.

Auspice Capital Advisors is a quantitative investment specialist focused on Alpha and Enhanced Beta managed futures and commodity strategies. Auspice specializes in applying innovative rules-based investment strategies across a broad range of commodity and financial markets.

Prior to forming Auspice, Tim was VP of Trading at Shell (North America). He began his career at TD Securities (Toronto) in their elite trading development program ultimately holding the Senior PM position for the Energy Derivatives portfolio. Outside of Auspice, Tim has been involved in grain farming in Western Canada. Through the founding of Auspice, Tim ties together a career in commodity and financial risk and portfolio management that has spanned institutional experience along with entrepreneurial vision.

Tim and I talk about his history as an institutional energy trader and how that lead him to want to start his own entrepreneurial venture. We touch on where inflation manifests itself and how do you make sure you are there. We also discuss how to deal with open profits within a trend system.

I hope you enjoy this conversation with Tim as much as I did...

26. Jerry Parker Jun 25, 2021

In this episode, we talk with Jerry Parker from Chesapeake Capital.

Chesapeake has always been a classic trend following CTA. "Trend Following + Nothing" is their firm motto.

Over the years Jerry has focused on adding markets to their portfolio. They were one of the few CTAs to trade single stock futures. They started trading single stocks in the '90s and continue to do so today. They do not trade any stock indices.

About 50% of their portfolio is commodities with FX, FI and single stocks making up the balance. They do trade BTC futures. They have added quite a few of the more exotic/less liquid commodities in the past few years: milk, lumber, sunflower seeds, maze, rough rice, palm oil, iron ore, rubber and look forward to trading the commodity markets in China. His philosophy is to trade any and all markets that are liquid and add to their portfolio diversification.

Jerry and I talk about his start as a Turtle Trader. What is CTA, Managed Futures, Trend Following. We talk about what he has learned over 4+ decades in the market. Why he hates vol targeting. Why discipline and sticking to your plan is the key to life.

I hope you enjoy this conversation with Jerry as much as I did...

25. Aaron Larkin and Matt Laviolette Jun 04, 2021

In this episode, we talk with Aaron Larkin and Matt Laviolette, Co-Founders of Breakout Funds. Breakout Funds, LLC ("Breakout") incorporates quantitative global macro thematic views with current news events to place discretionary short term concentrated trades in futures markets. Our trading approach draws on a combined 30 years of experience in the proprietary trading space where we have learned that protecting principal is the primary goal of any trading strategy. We believe that there is always an underlying theme that shapes the direction of the market, and it is our goal to adapt and implement strategies suitable for each particular market regime.

We talk about Matt and Aaron's background as Prop traders. How they use a multi-filter approach to trading the global macro environment. They wait until all their setups line up. Take concentrated positions with very tight stop losses, coming from their days as prop traders. We also talk about unique event risks.

I hope you enjoy Aaron and Matt's insights as much as I did...

Quarter 1, 2021 Update May 05, 2021

In this episode I am joined by Mutiny Fund CIO Jason Buck and our close partner at RCM Alternatives, Jeff Malec.

In this quarterly review, we discuss what we saw in markets in Q1 and how various volatility strategies performed.

To give a bit of context, Q1 2021 saw The S&P up 6%, and the VIX down about -14.87% though it was fairly range bound. The inverse PutWrite index which is a rough proxy for at-the-money volatility on the S&P was down about -5.82%.

Accredited investors interested in learning more can contact us at info@mutinyfund.com for more information or submit an inquiry on our site, mutinyfund.com.

24. Cem Karsan Apr 23, 2021

In this episode, we talk with Cem Karsan, CIO and Founder of Kai Volatility Advisors (formerly Aegea). After his successful trading career, Cem decided to leverage his volatility arbitrage expertise by improving upon many of the flawed strategies he had witnessed during his tenure as a market maker. To that end, Kai Volatility Advisors has created a non-correlated and scalable investment vehicle that takes advantage of the structural mispricing inherent in option indices worldwide, while offering the superior transparency and liquidity that today’s investors demand.

We talk about Cem’s experience as a market maker and how that affects how he thinks about trade flows. We dive into the 3 components to his strategy: 30 day skew, dispersion, and VVIX. We also discuss how dealer hedging can affect Vanna and Charm, which can pin the index or exacerbate moves depending on their hedge positioning.

I hope you enjoy Cem’s insights as much as I did...

23. Jagdeesh Prakasam Apr 01, 2021

In this episode, we talk with Jag Prakasam, CEO of Rotella Capital Management. Jagdeesh Prakasam oversees all aspects of the firm, including its investment, FinTech solution offerings and operations. He joined RCM in 2003 as a Researcher primarily focused on supporting the research efforts in portfolio construction, risk management, and overlay strategies for the firm’s core trading strategies. Jagdeesh Prakasam was appointed as the firm’s Chief Executive Officer in 2019. Prior to that he was the Co-Chief Investment Officer alongside Jagdeesh Rotella since 2014. Jagdeesh Prakasam has been managing various portfolios ranging from intraday to intermediate-term holding periods across both futures and equities spaces.

We talk about Jag’s decades of experience in the markets. From doing his thesis in neural networks to being at the vanguard of trend following strategies. We talk about how machine learning has evolved and what are the pros and cons to implementation on vix strategies.

I hope you enjoy Jag’s insights as much as I did...

22. Kris Sidial Mar 10, 2021

In this episode, we talk with Kris Sidial, CIO and founder of Ambrus Group. The Ambrus Group is a volatility arbitrage focused firm that was founded in 2018. The firm takes pride in having a math driven ethos that specializes in leveraging an in-depth knowledge of volatility skew while applying a discretionary twist to quantitative volatility strategies.

We talk about Kris's background working different prop desks at banks. How Kris believes that the market microstructure has evolved and changed since 2017. How to sell capped vega to fund the buying of out of the money wings with unique dispersion trades. How chaos theory can be represented by positional inflection points by a multitude of players on the volatility space.

I hope you enjoy Kris's insights as much as I did...

21. Brett Nelson Feb 17, 2021

In this episode, we talk with Brett Nelson, CIO and founder of Certeza Asset Management. Certeza focuses on investments in volatility using proprietary algorithms to capture perceived mis-pricings in the VIX term structure. We talk about the start of VIX trading from VRO to modern VIX products. His background from winning math competitions, isolating Vega on S&P options, to being on the vanguard of VIX trading. Brett has a unique entrepreneurial journey and has found his way outside the traditional paths to being a portfolio manager and volatility trader. I hope you enjoy Brett’s insights as much as I did...

Quarter 4 2020 Update Feb 02, 2021

In this episode I am joined by Mutiny Fund CIO Jason Buck and our close partner at RCM Alternatives, Jeff Malec.

In this quarterly review, we discuss what we saw in volatility markets and how various volatility strategies performed in Q4 of 2020 and what we might expect to see in 2021. We go into the VIX term structure around the election, the impact of retail call buying, and the dislocation of the normal relationship between volatility and equities.

In addition to our conversation, Jason also sat down with Bastian Bolesta from Deepfield Capital which employs volatility arbitrage and short term trend following models and Wayne Himelsein from Logica Funds which focused on long options strategies for their takes on the market in Q4.

To give a bit of context, Q4 2020 saw The S&P up about 10.9%, and the VIX down about -14% though it was mostly range bound between 20 and 25 with one spike at the end of October.

We wanted to release this publicly so we don’t go into specific performance here and will instead focus on volatility markets broadly. Accredited investors interested in learning more can contact us at info@mutinyfund.com for more information or submit an inquiry on our site.

20. Benn Eifert Jan 14, 2021

In this episode, we talk with Benn Eifert, the managing member and CIO of QVR. He was previously co-founder and co-portfolio manager of Mariner Coria in New York and the Wells Fargo proprietary trading desk, which became Overland Advisors. He holds a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley.

We talk about the history of the derivatives markets and the mixed impact of Dodd Frank legislation, why some derivatives buyers are price insensitive and the opportunities that creates, and then we really geeked out on three trading strategies using the VIX, dispersion trading and everyone’s favorite topic: European dividend futures. Underlying all of this is Benn’s unique way of looking at markets.

I hope you enjoyed this conversation as much as I did!

19. Diego Parrilla Nov 17, 2020

In this episode, we talk with Diego Parrilla of Quadriga Asset Managers. Diego is an engineer by training and has spent 20 years in the markets.

He’s spent most of that time in macro and commodities trading at firms including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch. He is the author of the bestselling books The Energy World is Flat and Anti-Bubbles.

Diego has a really unique approach to the markets that we got into including why he holds his basis in gold and treasuries, how he uses exotic options to improve his opportunity set, and why portfolios should be constructed like football teams.

I hope you enjoyed this conversation as much as I did!

18. Mike Green Oct 20, 2020

In this episode, we talk with Mike Green of Logica. Mike formerly ran Thiel Macro, Peter Thiel’s family office macro fund. We talked with Mike about knowing when and how to monetize your options, what he means when he says a history of markets is a history of transactions, and what he would teach in a one day seminar about the Fed.

Also, be sure to check out The Grant Williams Podcast where Mike Green has been interviewed by Bill Fleckenstein and Grant Williams. They discuss the role passive investing may have to play in The End Game.

I hope you enjoyed this conversation as much as I did.

Legends in Volatility Oct 13, 2020

In this episode, my partner and CIO of Mutiny Fund Jason Buck speaks with three of the most experience volatility traders alive today: Jerry Haworth of 36 South, Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital, and Chris Cole of Artemis Capital. This was originally recorded in July 2020 for the financial media channel Real Vision, but contains timeless wisdom that lies deep at the heart of investing in volatility.

I hope you enjoy this episode as much as I did.

Quarter 3 2020 Update Oct 08, 2020

In this episode I am joined by our close partner at Attain Portfolio Advisors Jeff Malec and Mutiny Fund CIO Jason Buck.

Now that we’ve had the Mutiny Fund’s first full quarter in the books, Q3 2020, we wanted to get on a podcast and talk through the environment as a way of helping current and potential investors better understand what we do.

We’ll look to do these every quarter or so as a sort of modern version of the hedge fund ‘quarterly letter’ but where we can go into a bit more detail.

Q3 saw The S&P up about 8.28%, and the VIX down about -14% though it took a somewhat different path. We wanted to release this publicly so we don’t go into specific performance here, but accredited investors can contact us at info@mutinyfund.com for more information or submit an inquiry on our site.

17. Ernest Chan Sep 15, 2020

In this episode, we talk with Ernie Chan. Ernie, a physicist by training, is the founder of QTS Capital Management and author of a number of books on Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading. In today’s episode, we talk about Ernie’s tail reaper strategy at QTS which seeks to profit from down moves in the S&P. We go into how Gamma Dealer Hedging and Forced Rebalancing exacerbates intraday volatility in the SPX in a way that makes the S&P one of the best places for a tail strategy to work. We also go into the Evolution of Machine Learning and how it is applied to trading strategies including tail reaper and the appropriate way to use kelly criterion for investors - a lesson Ernie learned the hard way.

16. Matt Rowe Aug 18, 2020

In this episode, we talk with Matt Rowe from Headwaters Volatility. Matt has over two decades of experience trading volatility at multibillion dollar asset managers. We talk with Matt about why the best portfolios have both long and short volatility and how investors often get the mix wrong. Matt has particularly great point on the importance of market microstructure and why we’ve seen an increase in volatility selling programs since 2017. We also trace the long history of volatility as an asset class, particularly looking at the convertible bond market in the late 90s/early 2000s and what parallels there are to the present day.

15. Tim Jacobson Jul 17, 2020

In this episode, we talk with Tim Jacobson, founding member of Pearl Capital. Before starting Pearl, Tim worked with a family office and designed Pearl to add a much-needed form of diversification to their portfolio and discovered many other investors have the same need.

We talk about common mistakes investors make in evaluating their risk. We then get into the details on why VIX futures is the best instrument to hedge against equity market volatility and why the absolute level of the vix is not as important as the fluctuation in the VIX, the volatility of volatility. At the end, we also get Tim’s take on what the post-Covid-19 world looks like.

I hope you enjoyed this conversation as much as I did.

14. CBOE Vol Panel Jun 13, 2020

This is a special episode that was recorded as a panel on Navigating Market Volatility on May 21, 2020. I wanted to publish it here on the Mutiny podcast as I think it provides an interesting and insightful look into what we saw in March 2020 and what we can learn from that about how the volatility landscape, and market landscape more generally, is likely to evolve going forward. The panelists discuss the role of the VIX in a portfolio or trading strategy, whether it is too late for long volatility protection and what everyone gets wrong about options.

This panelists include Jason Buck a principal at Mutiny alongside Wayne Himelsein of Logica Capital, Bastian Bolesta of Deepfield Capital, and Kevin Davit of the CBOE. The Panel is moderated by Jeff Malec of RCM Alternatives. Wayne, Bastian and Jeff are all previous podcast guests here on the Mutiny podcast and if you enjoy this discussion on the panel, you should check out their episodes.

I hope you enjoyed this conversation as much as I did.

13: Jason & Taylor: Volatility in the Times of Corona Mar 26, 2020

In this episode, I sat down to talk with Jason about the market events of March 2020. We start by talking about why many narratives around the market crash may be wrong and the evidence that what we have seen so far is maybe not a harbinger of a crashing economy but rather an institutional liquidity crisis.

We then talk through some historical analogies to give investors a basis for thinking about what is to come. We talk about 2008, the 1987 flash crash and the less known Hong Kong Flu of ‘69 crash.

Finally, we talk about how investors can be prepared for any eventuality and strategies for protecting against a second or third leg down in markets.

I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did.

12. Jeff Malec : New York & Chicago markets, Correlations, Investor Traits Mar 05, 2020

In this episode, we talk with Jeff Malec. Jeff is a principal at RCM Alternatives, a leading firm in the futures industry.

Jeff began his career in the Chicago futures pits with burly traders spitting into their dip cups and has had a front-row seat to watching the futures industry develop rapidly over the past two decades.

We talk about the differences between the New York traditional equity-based markets and Chicago’s futures markets and the pros and cons for investors.

We look at why Chicago’s approach did much better in 2008 and what investors can learn from that to apply to their own portfolios as well as the cash efficiency of futures.

We dive into how investors should think about correlations, particularly when projecting into the future.

We also talk about the common traits of the most successful investors Jeff knows, particularly the engineering mindest and how other investors can apply that.

Finally, we dive into why low volatility often means hidden risk and how to spot it in your portfolio.

I hope you enjoyed this conversation as much as I did

11. Alex Orus: All about the VIX, Mean Reversion Jan 15, 2020

Alex Orus is a principal at Principalium Capital based in Zurich, Switzerland. Alex is one of the most experienced traders of the volatility index, often called the VIX, having founded Blue Diamond Capital which traded the VIX starting in 2010.

In this conversation, we talk about risk and how many investors measure risk in a way that actually increases their risk. We then dive into the history and the structure of the VIX and its associated products and how investors can trade it to improve the performance of their portfolio.

There were a couple of terms Alex talked about in the interview that I wanted to introduce. Alex mentions a few times an event in February 2018. What happened was that VIX went from 13 to 37, nearly a 300% move in a day which was it’s largest percentage move in history causing large losses or large gains for traders on either side of the market.

We also talk about mean reversion. Mean reversion is the idea that an asset moves back to its long term average. So the VIX’s long-term historical average is around 20 so if the VIX spikes to 40, then moves back towards 20, we call that mean reversion.

I hope you enjoy this conversation with Alex as much as I did.

10. Bastian Bolesta: Chaotistan vs Normalstan, Momentum vs Trend, Sharpe Ratio Jan 15, 2020

In this episode, we talk with Bastian Bolesta, CEO of Deep Field Capital, a systematic long volatility manager based in Switzerland.

We start off by talking about the difference between systematic and discretionary trading styles and why systematic may make more sense if you live in what Bastian calls Chaotistan instead of Normalstan.

We then dive into the difference between Momentum and Trend styles of investing and the types of markets that each thrive in, how using a Sharpe ratio to measure risk can actually increase the risk of a portfolio.

We also talk about the benefits of trading markets intraday instead of holding positions over night and when it makes sense. Finally, we talk about the relationships between US, Europe and Asian markets and how investors can take advantage of it.

I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did.

9. Tom O'Donnell: Managed Futures, Short and Long Volatility, E-Minis. Nov 19, 2019

Tom O’Donnell is a principal and a managing direction at 3D Capital Management. Tom began his career at the Virginia Retirement System where he pioneered the use of alternative investments to mitigate portfolio risks.

Since then, Tom’s 30-year career has been devoted to reminding investors that markets move in two directions: up and down. Tom has been finding and using alternative investment strategies to reduce risk and enhance returns across the business cycle.

In today’s conversation, we talked with Tom about this history of the Managed Futures industry, the relationship between returns and assets under management, and how investors should think about combining short and long volatility investments.

In the interview, Tom mentions a financial instrument called the e-mini. The E-mini is a commonly traded futures contract that is worth one-fifth of a full S&P futures contract, but for the purposes of our contract, it can just be thought of as a S&P contract.

8. Hari Krishnan: Profiting after market shock, Common Hedging Mistakes and Machine Learning in Markets. Nov 19, 2019

In this episode, we chat with Hari Krishnan of Doherty Advisors. Hari is a volatility macro-focused hedge fund manager and the author of The Second Leg Down, a look at practical approaches to profiting after a market shock.

We start the conversation with Hari by talking about the academic theory that suggests hedging is not a good long-term strategy and how his experience of the practice differs from what theory would predict.

We then get into Hari's view on ETFs and the potential systemic risk they pose to markets more broadly, and, what investors can do to manage that risk.

We look at common mistakes investors make when hedging including hedging too literally and too reasonably. Hari believes that investors typically buy options for scenarios that seem plausible when they should focus on how options will be repriced as volatility unfolds.

We then go into hedging strategies for different parts of a crisis, what Hari calls the first and second leg down. Hari has found that strategies that looked cheap before the first leg down tend to look expensive after and investors should adjust their hedging strategy as a result.

Finally we go into the role of Algos and machine learning in markets and how Hari’s views there have changed over time. You can find out more about Hari by buying his book 'The Second Leg Down: Strategies for Profiting after a Market Sell-Off'.

7. Chris Cole: Long Volatility Strategies, George Lucas and Dennis Rodman Nov 19, 2019

In this episode, we chat with Chris Cole, founder and chief investment officer at Artemis Capital Management. Chris is an expert in long volatility strategies and has a knack for coming up with analogies to explain them.

We talk about why Dennis Rodman is arguably one of the best basketball players of all time despite scoring less than eleven points per game and what investors and individuals can take from that in terms of how they think about diversification.

We also discuss why George Lucas may have been the greatest volatility trade of all time, why forgoing gains in a long volatility strategy in the first leg down after markets drop 3,4,5% is a better long term strategy and what Chris thinks about fixed income like government bonds as a hedge against market crashes going forward.

6. Wayne Himelsein: Negative Skew, Ergodicity and Thoughtful Diversification Nov 19, 2019

In this episode we chat with Wayne Himelsein, president and chief investment officer at Logica Capital. Wayne has spent over two decades managing long/short portfolios and so brings a wealth of experience to the conversation.

We talk with Wayne about a concept called negative skew and how it leads many investors to underestimate the risk in their portfolio (as well as what investors can do to protect against it).

We dived into the concept of ergodicity, an idea that I initially discovered through Nassim Taleb but that has become a very valuable mental model for me for looking at both markets and life in general.

We dove into the pitfalls of diversification and how many investors engage in naive rather than what Wayne calls thoughtful diversification as well as why you only need to be right 54% of the time.

You can find more of Wayne on Twitter (@WayneHimelsein).

5. Jason and Taylor (interview by Jeff Malec) : Portfolio Construction, Tail Risk and Black Swans Nov 01, 2019

In this episode, we flip the script and have our good friend Jeff Malec interview Jason and myself.

We start by talking about our backgrounds, mine in marketing cat furniture and Jason’s in selling Turkish rugs among other things and walk through how those led us to look for solutions to protect our own portfolios.

We dive into the portfolio construction philosophy underlying the Mutiny investment strategy and how it can help investors decrease their risk and increase their returns.

We then talk through the major tail risk and long volatility strategies and explain what each is really doing under the hood.

We then go into all the considerations around how to protect against a black swan: focsuing on the value of ensembles and diversification across long volatility and tail risk managers, strategies and market microstructures.

I hope you enjoyed this conversation as much as I did

4. Why Mutiny? Part Four: Long Vol Equity Tail Hedging: Rolling Puts, Options, Straddles, Strangles, Volatility Arbitrage and Short-term Downcapture. Jul 26, 2019

This podcast is an open-ended exploration of topics relating to growing and preserving your wealth including investing, markets, decision making under opacity, risk, volatility, and complexity.

Mutiny Fund is a multi-strategy long volatility fund designed to give retail investors a way to insure their portfolios against volatility, tail risk, and black swan events.

This is the fourth episode of a four part series where Jason and Taylor discuss the thesis behind Mutiny.

In the previous episodes we’ve explored diversification and the use of volatility as an asset class. In this episode we’ll be looking at different ways to execute a particular long volatility strategy of equity tail hedging. We’ll be discussing rolling puts, options, straddles, strangles, volatility arbitrage and shorterm downcapture.

Copyright © 2019 · Mutiny Fund does not warrant the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any information contained in this electronic communication and its contents are intended for the recipient only. “Mutiny Fund” is a DBA of Three Magnolia, LLC, its affiliates and subsidiaries. This material has been prepared by a sales employee and is a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction and shouldn’t be considered a research report. Trading futures, Options on Futures and retail off-exchange foreign currency transaction involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors you would consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Options, Market data, and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

3. Why Mutiny? Part Three: Why Long Volatility, and Why Now? Jul 26, 2019

This podcast is an open-ended exploration of topics relating to growing and preserving your wealth including investing, markets, decision making under opacity, risk, volatility, and complexity.

Mutiny Fund is a multi-strategy long volatility fund designed to give retail investors a way to insure their portfolios against volatility, tail risk, and black swan events.

This is the third episode of a four part series where Jason and Taylor discuss the thesis behind Mutiny.

In the previous episode we looked at Volatility as an asset class and how investors can diversify there. In this episode we explore the question: why volatility at this stage of the market?

Copyright © 2019 · Mutiny Fund does not warrant the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any information contained in this electronic communication and its contents are intended for the recipient only. “Mutiny Fund” is a DBA of Three Magnolia, LLC, its affiliates and subsidiaries. This material has been prepared by a sales employee and is a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction and shouldn’t be considered a research report. Trading futures, Options on Futures and retail off-exchange foreign currency transaction involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors you would consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Options, Market data, and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

2. Why Mutiny? Part Two: Volatility - Short and Long, Gold, the Permanent Portfolio and Equity Tail Hedging Jul 26, 2019

This podcast is an open-ended exploration of topics relating to growing and preserving your wealth including investing, markets, decision making under opacity, risk, volatility, and complexity.

Mutiny Fund is a multi-strategy long volatility fund designed to give retail investors a way to insure their portfolios against volatility, tail risk, and black swan events.

This is the second episode of a four part series where Jason and Taylor discuss the thesis behind Mutiny.

In the first episode we looked at diversification and it's role in an investor's portfolio. While many investors realize the importance of diversification, they often fail to diversify across one category: Volatility.

Today we'll be looking at Volatility as an asset class. We believe all investments can be organized into either Short Volatility (those that are harmed by volatility) or Long Volatility (those that benefit from volatility).

We'll be looking at some of the options for Long Volatility investments including Gold, the Permanent Portfolio and the Equity Tail Hedge.

Copyright © 2019 · Mutiny Fund does not warrant the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any information contained in this electronic communication and its contents are intended for the recipient only. “Mutiny Fund” is a DBA of Three Magnolia, LLC, its affiliates and subsidiaries. This material has been prepared by a sales employee and is a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction and shouldn’t be considered a research report. Trading futures, Options on Futures and retail off-exchange foreign currency transaction involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors you would consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Options, Market data, and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

1. Why Mutiny? Part One: Diversification - decision making under opacity, Parrondo's paradox, a historical view. Jul 26, 2019

This podcast is an open-ended exploration of topics relating to growing and preserving your wealth including investing, markets, decision making under opacity, risk, volatility, and complexity.

Mutiny Fund is a multi-strategy long volatility fund designed to give retail investors a way to insure their portfolios against volatility, tail risk, and black swan events.

This episode is the first in a four-part series where Jason and Taylor discuss the thesis behind Mutiny. In this episode they talk primarily about Diversification - the role of diversification in the investor's portfolio, decision making under opacity, Parrondo's paradox, historical view of diversification.

Copyright © 2019 · Mutiny Fund does not warrant the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any information contained in this electronic communication and its contents are intended for the recipient only. “Mutiny Fund” is a DBA of Three Magnolia, LLC, its affiliates and subsidiaries. This material has been prepared by a sales employee and is a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction and shouldn’t be considered a research report. Trading futures, Options on Futures and retail off-exchange foreign currency transaction involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors you would consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Options, Market data, and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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