Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

S&P To 7000? | Warren Pies On Why Stocks Aren’t Overvalued Nov 20, 2024

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Jack to share his views on why the stock market isn’t overvalued and why he is recommending to clients an underweight commodities stance. Pies argues that small-caps and mid-caps aren’t destined to do great if the bull market continues. Recorded on November 19, 2024.

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How To Build A Billion Dollar Hedge Fund From Scratch | Dan Rasmussen Nov 19, 2024

Dan Rasmussen has built his firm Verdad Capital into a billion-dollar asset manager on the back of one core activity, producing high quality research. Since Verdad’s inception in 2014, they have produced almost 500 pieces of research that they publish on their website weekly and distribute both on Twitter and to their large email list of readers. This research serves two functions. It’s both the backbone of the strategies employed at this highly quantitative firm, and a point of connection with existing and potential investors. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Rasmussen discusses how he’s used research to showcase his authentic self and build an audience that provides enumerable benefits. They also discuss the compliance process for publishing research, how he has built out his team and Verdad’s internship program, and why he takes a more SaaS approach to product market fit.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

03:43 The Value of Research and Verdad’s First Big Thesis

10:27 The SaaS Approach Product Market Fit

20:26 Investing in Human Capital

24:21 The Research and Publishing Process

28:41 Research as Brand Building

33:06 Compliance and Misconceptions About Public Statements

41:35 Authenticity and Investor Archetypes

46:07 Making Mistakes

49:45 Being Early on PE

Investing For A High Price Future | James Davolos on Inflation, Pricing Power, and West Texas Nov 17, 2024

James Davolos, portfolio manager for Horizon Kinetics, joins Jack to share his investment philosophy for investing in companies with strong pricing power that benefit from inflationary environments. Recorded on November 14, 2024.

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U.S. Dollar Is Getting Crowded | “Market Wizard” Jason Shapiro on Currencies, Stocks, and Bonds Under Trump Administration Nov 13, 2024

Veteran trader Jason Shapiro joins Jack to share how he perceives positioning across FX, Equities, commodities, and bonds. He thinks the crowded long dollar trade has created a set-up for the Euro to rally, and he estimates that traders are a bit too short of oil and natural gas. Equities is in the “too hard” column so he is neutral, however he sees some short-term risks. Recorded on November 12, 2024.

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Thinking Outside the Style Box | The Hedge Fund Category Problem with Louis Camhi | Other People's Money with Max Wiethe Nov 12, 2024

Hedge fund strategies like distressed, long short equities, relative value, etc. are well defined and understood by allocators. As a result, funds that fit neatly into these style boxes can easily answer the question, “what type of fund are you?” But what if you don’t fit neatly into one of these boxes? Be too exact and no one will search for your niche strategy. Push the envelope to fit into one of these boxes and suddenly investors feel like they’ve been tricked into a meeting. This is a problem that Louis Camhi, founder and CIO of RLH Capital, has had to deal with since launching his SPAC focused strategy in 2021. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Camhi discusses why educating investors about SPACs and defining his fund for style box focused investors has been harder than finding interesting SPAC trades. They also touch on outsourcing back and middle office, the little things you don’t think about when you are working for a larger fund, and the tradeoffs between SMAs and pooled vehicles.

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Let The Bull Loose | Citrini on Trump Trade, China, and Powell Put On Bonds Nov 10, 2024

Citrini, the thematic cross-asset investor known for his prescient and profitable calls on AI and GLP-1s, joins Monetary Matters to review with Jack his “Trump basket” which since its inception in March 4, 2024 to November 8, 2024 is up 87% (his Trump market neutral basket is up 32% over the same time horizon). Citrini explains why he created the basket and how its performance tracked and often predicted Trump’s odds of winning in the betting markets. Upon Trump’s victory, he tells Jack which parts of the basket he thinks are overheated and which have room to run. Citrini also shares his views on AI, the broad stock and bond markets, and the airline industry. Recorded on November 8, 2024.

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A Defiant Chairman Powell Cuts Rates | Jack Farley & Max Wiethe Nov 07, 2024

The Federal Reserve continued its course of interest rate cuts in the first FOMC

meeting following the election of Donald Trump and a defiant Chairman Powell strongly

rejected any notion that Trump’s presidency could affect the independence of the

Federal Reserve. Here, Jack Farley and Max Wiethe discuss the Fed’s move in light of

recent data, the stock market’s run both before and after Trump’s election, and their

outlooks for stocks and the economy moving forward. Recorded on November 7th , 2024.

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Enter the Kuppyverse | Harris Kupperman on Brand Building by Blogging at Praetorian Capital | Other People's Money with Max Wiethe Nov 06, 2024

Harris Kupperman, CIO and Founder of Praetorian Capital joins Max Wiethe to share how he’s grown his firm to over $300 million in AUM, largely by breaking the institutional mold. They discuss Kupperman’s choice to build a strategy with UHNW investors and family offices in mind rather than traditional institutional investors and the benefits of a diversified base of LPs. They also discuss the firm’s blog Kuppy’s Korner, the importance of authenticity in brand building, and his choice to register the fund as a 506(c).

Clarification: At 50:48 Harris mentions that almost half the capital in the fund is from gains. As of September 30th, 2024 44% of the fund's capital is from gains.

Sign up for Kuppy’s Korner at: https://pracap.com

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The Great Millionaire Migration | Basil Mohr-Elzeki on Global Wealth Migration Nov 03, 2024

Email info@monetary-matters.com to inquire about Henley & Partners, and Jack will connect you with Basil.

Basil Mohr-Elzeki, Managing Director and Head of Americas for Henley & Partners, joins Jack on Monetary Matters to explain why more millionaires than ever are going to relocate countries in 2024. He delves into the causes of this phenomenon, the nuances of citizenship and residency investment, and the role that taxes, geographic diversification and other factors play in driving the migration of the world’s high-net-worth individuals.

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Is The Yield Curve’s Recession Signal Wrong?Jeff Snider Oct 30, 2024

Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University joins Jack to explore whether the inverted yield curve signal has been proven wrong, and just how strong or weak the U.S. economy is. Recorded on October 28, 2024.

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To Zero and Beyond | Building Muddy Waters Capital with Carson Block | Other People's Money with Max Wiethe Oct 29, 2024

Building a successful hedge fund is hard. It’s even harder when you’re fighting the perpetual upward momentum of the market. Despite this headwind, Carson Block, CIO and Founder of Muddy Waters Capital, has made his firm into a successful fund management business and taken down billion-dollar frauds in the process. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Block explains why starting a fund became necessary to pursue activist short selling in a serious capacity, the pitfalls of capital raising and the different types of investors who are interested in specialized strategies like theirs, and how he is expanding his business with new strategies beyond activist short selling. Recorded on October 21st, 2024.

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Not Backing Down On Recession Call | David Rosenberg on Wealth Effect, Uncle Sam, and Stock Market Price Bubble Oct 28, 2024

David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to argue why a recession is likely to occur as soon as 2025. Rosenberg points to the low savings rate and argues that fiscal deficits and a stock market price bubble are boosting consumer spending and that this will reverse if the stock market stops going up. Recorded on October 25, 2024.

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The Panic Melt-Up In Bank Stocks | Chris Whalen on Recession Fantasies & Capital Market Reawakening Oct 23, 2024

Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors & Institutional Risk Analyst joins Jack Farley to explain why bank stocks are partying like it’s 1997 again. Recorded on October 21, 2024.

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Chris Whalen’s latest book, “Seeing Around Corners,” https://www.freedommortgage.com/seeingaroundcorners

Lev Menand & Joshua Younger paper that Chris references: https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/faculty_scholarship/4093/

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Jim Rogers on China, Silver, and Timeless Investment Lessons Oct 20, 2024

Investing legend Jim Rogers joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to share timeless investing lessons. Rogers warns that people who blindly follow financial pundits without doing their own analysis are likely doomed to underperform, and he explains why he is a long-term bull on Chinese shares. Rogers argues that the unprecedented sovereign debt levels in the U.S. will reignite inflation, and explains why he continues to view silver as an effective inflation hedge. Recorded on October 17, 2024.

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Beeland Interests https://www.beelandinterests.com/

Jim Rogers’ website https://www.jimrogers.com/

Jim Rogers’ Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers

Inflation Isn’t Dead | Jim Bianco on Why Bond Yields Are Headed Higher Oct 16, 2024

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Bianco Advisors joins Monetary Matters to share his views on inflation, the labor market, and bonds. Bianco argues that the reason the unemployment rate has gone up is because the large amount of immigration into the U.S. has increased the labor force. Bianco makes the case that inflation is headed higher and bond yields now are probably headed higher. Recorded on October 14, 2024.

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Jared Dillian: Private Equity Has Reached A Sentiment Top Oct 13, 2024

Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap and of “Night Moves: And other stories” joins Monetary Matters to discuss his thoughts behind a recent piece he wrote called “The Next Big Short: Hidden Risks Behind Private Equity's $8 Trillion Market.” Jared explains why he has shorted private equity companies and why he thinks private equity has peaked as an asset class and is destined for underperformance over the next decade. Recorded on October 11, 2024.

Jared’s piece, ““The Next Big Short: Hidden Risks Behind Private Equity's $8 Trillion Market”: https://m.jareddillianmoney.com/private-equity-next-big-short

Jared’s Short Private Equity website: https://www.shortprivateequity.com/

Jared’s latest book, “Night Moves: And other stories”: https://www.amazon.com/Night-Moves-stories-Jared-Dillian/dp/B0DFBJS741

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How Chinese “Stimulus” Is Widely Misunderstood | Brian McCarthy Urges Caution On The Chinese Stock Market Surge Oct 09, 2024

SPECIAL “ASK ME ANYTHING” PROMOTION: Leave a rating and review for Monetary Matters on Apple podcast and ask Jack any question you want. Jack will answer some of the questions in future episodes. You can write the question in the body of the review, or you can send your question to to info@monetary-matters.com alongside a screenshot of your review.

Brian McCarthy of Macrolens LLC joins Jack Farley to argue that the tremendous Chinese stock market rally of the past three weeks is fueled by misunderstanding of Chinese economic policy. McCarthy argues that the fiscal stimulus from the Chinese government will be 1 - 2 Trillion Yuan, or ~300 Billion USD, which McCarthy estimates is nowhere near close enough to stimulate the flailing Chinese economy. Recorded the afternoon of October 8, 2024.

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Lyn Alden on China's Real Estate Implosion & Stock Market Rally Oct 06, 2024

Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins Monetary Matters to explain why she is bullish on Chinese equities on a multi-year time horizon, and to share why she thinks nothing will stop the American economy because of the large amount of fiscal deficits the U.S government is running. Recorded on September 30, 2024.

Teucrium’s US Agriculture ETFs provide exposure to commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar in a convenient size and ETF wrapper, right in your traditional brokerage account. Learn more at https://teucrium.com/

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The Oil Market Has A Big Problem | Paul Sankey Oct 04, 2024

Despite rising tensions in the Middle East, today’s guest thinks that the price of oil is headed not higher but lower. Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to share why he thinks the price of oil is headed to as low as $50 as millions of barrels of capacity come online in Guyana, the U.S., and elsewhere, and as Saudi Arabia begins to focus on market share once again. Recorded on October 4, 2024.

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Financial Times article on Saudi desire to take back market share: https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd

Harley Bassman: Bonds Are Fully Cooked Without an Imminent Recession Oct 01, 2024

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, outlines his favorite trades right now and explains why he thinks bonds are fully cooked without an imminent recession. He argues that selling interest rate vol is one of the best ways to play this fully cooked bond market and explains how new issue agency MBS and other callable bonds can be used to take advantage of the richness in bond volatility. Filmed on September 26, 2024.

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Learn more about Simplify https://www.simplify.us

China Fights Its Doom Loop | Leland Miller on Mammoth Stimulus From People's Bank of China Sep 28, 2024

China’s central bank just shocked markets with several impressive sounding stimulus measures, causing the biggest one-week rally in Chinese stocks since 2008. But how effective is this stimulus actually going to be to the Chinese economy? Leland Miller, co-founder & CEO of China Beige Book, joins Monetary Matters to weigh on this very important issue. Leland says he thinks the rally in Chinese stocks could continue for up to two months but that the effect on the Chinese economy will be to stabilize rather than to stimulate. Recorded on September 27, 2024.

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Neil Dutta: This is What a Soft Landing Looks Like Sep 25, 2024

Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, joins Monetary Matters to update his prior call that the US economy would not enter a recession. He explains why a soft landing is still his base case and why he thinks the Fed is properly positioned to engineer that outcome even if soft economic data forces them to cut rates more aggressively. Recorded on September 21, 2024.

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Kris Sidial: "Graveyard Day" Is In Store For Short Volatility Traders Sep 22, 2024

Kris Sidial, co-CIO of Ambrus Group, joins Monetary Matters to break down the conditions in volatility markets that exacerbated the sharp sell-off in early August, and explain why he thinks the risks embedded in the "short vol" trade have only gotten worse. Recorded on September 20, 2024.

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Danielle DiMartino Booth: The Fed Is Still Behind The Curve Sep 19, 2024

Teucrium’s US Agriculture ETFs provide exposure to commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar in a convenient size and ETF wrapper, right in your traditional brokerage account. Learn more at https://teucrium.com/

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, joins Monetary Matters to share her views on the the Federal Reserve’s historic 50 basis point cut. Recorded shortly after Jay Powell’s press conference on September 18, 2024.

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Joseph Wang: Fed Interest Rate Cuts Could Hurt The Stock Market Sep 18, 2024

Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed and publisher of FedGuy.com, joins Jack Farley as the first guest of Monetary Matters. Joseph shares his view on the Federal Reserve's historic double interest rate cut, and explains why he thinks the interest rate cuts could be quite bearish for the stock market. Filmed on September 18, just after Fed Chair Powell's press conference.

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Joseph's latest piece, "When Big Cuts Are Bad": https://fedguy.com/when-big-cuts-are-bad/

Introducing... Monetary Matters Sep 17, 2024

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. First episode going out with Joseph Wang on September 18, shortly after the Federal Reserve begins its cutting rate cycle.

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