Monetary Matters with Jack Farley - Jack Farley

U.S. Recession To Be Revealed By January 2025 “Data Bomb” | Danielle DiMartino Booth Dec 19, 2024

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, joins Monetary Matters to share her views on the December Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and her outlook on markets and the U.S. economy in 2025. DiMartino doubles down on her call that the U.S. economy is already in a recession, and explains why she thinks on January 29 2025 will be the day that the true weakness of the job market will be revealed. Recorded on December 19, 2024.

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QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/

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Jack Farley & Max Wiethe on Fed Hawkishness & Steep Stock Market Sell-off Dec 18, 2024

Jack welcomes Max Wiethe, business partner and host of Other People’s Money podcast, to break down December’s Federal Reserve meeting. Jack shares why he bought puts prior to the Fed’s meeting and his views for the market after its steep sell-off of nearly 3%. Max and Jack debate to what extent the monetary policy is hawkish, the bull case for the dollar, and how many cuts (if any) the Fed will do in 2025. Recorded just after the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024.

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Inside the Secret World of Prop Traders | Noel Smith of Convex Asset Management Dec 17, 2024

Noel Smith, founder of Convex Asset Management has spent most of his career outside of the world of managing other people’s money. Instead, he traded his own capital as a proprietary trader. Prop traders are famed for generating staggering rates of return, but because they have no interest in raising money, their secrets and strategies generally remain behind closed doors. However, he has decided to bring these strategies to the hedge fund world at Convex Asset Management and while they don’t scale to produce the same level of returns their lack of availability outside the prop world gives him differentiation in the product marketplace. In this interview, Smith explains why props can make so much more money, how much harder capital raising is than he anticipated, and why he ranks relationships and likability higher than performance when it comes to hedge fund success.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:16 What is Prop Trading?

10:51 Moving to the Hedge Fund World

16:36 The Hedge Fund Popularity Contest

23:04 Volatility Trading Strategies

27:27 Extracting Information From The Options Market

32:09 Scaling Prop Strategies

34:44 Alpha Degradation

39:31 Being Good Is Not Enough

48:03 Dealing With Extreme Performance

53:28 Long-term Vision For Convex Asset Management

The Treacherous Last Mile of Inflation | Vincent Deluard on France, 2025 U.S. Fiscal Drag, COLA Pain, and the U.S. Healthcare Price Spiral Dec 15, 2024

Vincent Deluard, director of global macro for StoneX, joins Monetary Matters to share why he thinks there is a perfect storm of macro headwinds that in April to May of 2025 may put a halt to the relentless rise in U.S. stocks.

Deluard argues that the lower inflation of 2024 will result in a lower cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) adjustment for 2025 U.S. government programs such as Social Security. He thinks a strong U.S. dollar could dent corporate profits and that state and local governments plan to actually shrink expenditures in 2025.

Deluard, a Frenchman, shares his detailed view on political chaos in France and its macroeconomic consequences. Recorded on December 11, 2024.

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20% Decline In Stocks By First Quarter 2025? Felix Zulauf on a Bubble In S&P 500, Yen Carry Trade, and Bond Market Rollercoaster Dec 12, 2024

Today’s episode is brought to you by the Teucrium Wheat Fund. War, weather, inflation—even monetary policy—drive wheat prices. See disclaimers below. Explore the opportunities at: https://bit.ly/Teucrium

Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf consulting, joins Jack on Monetary Matters to share his current views on stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf expects a >1000 point correction in the S&P 500 in early 2025, and warns that a strengthening Japanese yen could unleash a wave of liquidations from investors involved in the Yen carry trade. Under such a risk-off scenario, Zulauf expects U.S. Treasury yields to decline, however he thinks the secular bear market in bonds will ultimately continue. Zulauf is not ready to call an end to the secular bull market in U.S. stocks. Recorded on December 9, 2024.

Felix Zulauf website: https://www.felixzulauf.com/

Felix Zulauf email: info@felixzulauf.com

Zulauf Consulting on LinkedIn: zulauf-consulting

Zulauf Consulting YouTube Channel: @zulaufconsulting

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___

Disclaimers for Teucrium sponsorship:

This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. To obtain a current prospectus visit www.teucrium.com. The Teucrium Wheat Fund is a commodity pool regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is not a mutual fund registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not subject to regulation under such Act. Commodities and futures generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.

Futures investing is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. An investor may lose all or substantially all of an investment in the Fund. Investing in commodity interest subject the Fund to the risk of its related industry. Brokerage commissions and exchange-traded fund expenses will reduce returns.

Teucrium Trading, LLC serves as the Sponsor of the Teucrium Wheat Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Fund, and is not affiliated with Teucrium Trading, LLC, or any of its affiliates.

__

Music from #InAudio: https://inaudio.org/

Track Name: Cinematic Piano [Cinematic Music] by MokkaMusic / Soul

Active Management Still Matters in Emerging Markets | Jamie Carter Dec 10, 2024

Jamie Carter, Partner and Managing Director at Variis Partners has spent much of his career focused on the world of long-only emerging-market investment boutiques. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Carter discusses the huge differences between building a long only business and a hedge fund business, why launching fund vehicles out of the UK has become more difficult, the differences in raising capital in the US, UK, and Europe, and why he thinks emerging markets are the last hold outs for fundamental active managers. He also explains why EM investors and allocators are holding their collective breath waiting to see how the Trump administration’s policies will impact global markets.

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Rumors of Job Market Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated | Jack Farley & Max Wiethe Dec 08, 2024

Jack Farley welcomes Max Wiethe, his business partner and host of the Other People’s Money podcast, for a conversation about the job market, the stock market, and the recent central banking conference they attended. Recorded on December 6, 2024.

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The Macroeconomic Malaise | Juliette Declercq on Debt, Tariffs, Immigration, and Yield Curve Dec 04, 2024

A stalwart of the “no recession” camp for many years, Juliette Declercq of JDI Research joins Jack to argue why she thinks that recession is now the greater risk than inflation for 2025 and beyond. Declercq argues that U.S. economy has been growing beyond organic levels by relying upon debt growth and immigration. She explains her bullish view on the dollar, the two-year note, and her views on stocks and bonds. Recorded on December 2, 2024.

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The Investor Up 1000% With No Down Years | Chris Brown of Aristides Capital Dec 03, 2024

Since Aristides Capital’s inception in August 2008, Chris Brown has returned over 1,000% for their investors with a stunning 16-year track record of no losing years. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Brown explains how they’ve been able to sustain these results and grow their business to over $300m in AUM all while operating far from the typical financial centers where hedge funds cluster. They discuss how accumulating a plethora of lower capacity strategies, hiring and working with “well intentioned nerds,” and maintaining rigorous processes for post-hoc analysis and feedback have been some of the keys to their investment success. They also touch on asset gathering from both HNW and institutional investors, attracting talent, and the reality that for small funds being in the top quartile or even decile of performance is a near necessity for reaching critical mass.

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Financial Markets Remain Abnormal | Andy Constan on Flat Yield Curve, Expensive Stock Market, and MicroStrategy Dec 01, 2024

Andy Constan joins Monetary Matters to explain why he thinks financial markets are abnormal. With credit spreads extremely tight, the yield curve flat, and an expensive stock market, Andy estimates that all assets are expensive to cash and that financial markets are required to return to normal in order for inflation to return to normal. Recorded on November 26, 2024.

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Joseph Wang & George Goncalves on Rates, Tariffs, Fed’s Balance Sheet, and Yen Carry Trade Nov 27, 2024

Jack is joined by George Goncalves, Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc, and Joseph Wang, publisher at FedGuy.com and former senior trader for the New York Fed, to probe the challenges the Federal Reserve faces at its December meeting and the new year. Recorded on November 25, 2024.

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The Easiest Way to Launch a Hedge Fund | Understanding Fund Spinouts with Farid Guindo Nov 27, 2024

Ask anyone and they will tell you it has never been harder to start a hedge fund. That’s why so many of the most successful launches of late have been funds emerging from a prior firm with the backing of the big boss, otherwise known as spinouts. Julian Robertson’s Tiger Cubs are the perhaps most famous spinouts, but it is still an extremely popular trend today. Farid Guindo, CIO and founder of Drill Capital Management is taking advantage of these dynamics to launch his new fund with the backing of his mentor and former boss at Bornite Capital, Dan Dreyfus. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Guindo discusses the ins and outs of fund spinouts, the importance of transparency and relationship building with bosses and mentors, and how his experience working at Tiger Cubs and other spinouts solidified his belief that this was the right path for Drill Capital after deciding it was best to be a separate vehicle outside of the Bornite umbrella.

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Banks As Synthetic Hedge Funds | Elham Saeidinezhad on Private Credit ETFs, Interest Rate Swaps as Repo, and the Increasing Interconnectedness Between Banks And Nonbanks Nov 24, 2024

Dr. Elham Saeidinezhad, Term Assistant Professor of Economics at Barnard College, Columbia University, and Market Structure Fellow, Jain Family Institute, joins Jack to share her upcoming papers on banks as synthetic hedge funds and interest rate swaps as synthetic funding. Recorded on November 23, 2024.

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S&P To 7000? | Warren Pies On Why Stocks Aren’t Overvalued Nov 20, 2024

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Jack to share his views on why the stock market isn’t overvalued and why he is recommending to clients an underweight commodities stance. Pies argues that small-caps and mid-caps aren’t destined to do great if the bull market continues. Recorded on November 19, 2024.

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How To Build A Billion Dollar Hedge Fund From Scratch | Dan Rasmussen Nov 19, 2024

Dan Rasmussen has built his firm Verdad Capital into a billion-dollar asset manager on the back of one core activity, producing high quality research. Since Verdad’s inception in 2014, they have produced almost 500 pieces of research that they publish on their website weekly and distribute both on Twitter and to their large email list of readers. This research serves two functions. It’s both the backbone of the strategies employed at this highly quantitative firm, and a point of connection with existing and potential investors. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Rasmussen discusses how he’s used research to showcase his authentic self and build an audience that provides enumerable benefits. They also discuss the compliance process for publishing research, how he has built out his team and Verdad’s internship program, and why he takes a more SaaS approach to product market fit.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

03:43 The Value of Research and Verdad’s First Big Thesis

10:27 The SaaS Approach Product Market Fit

20:26 Investing in Human Capital

24:21 The Research and Publishing Process

28:41 Research as Brand Building

33:06 Compliance and Misconceptions About Public Statements

41:35 Authenticity and Investor Archetypes

46:07 Making Mistakes

49:45 Being Early on PE

Investing For A High Price Future | James Davolos on Inflation, Pricing Power, and West Texas Nov 17, 2024

James Davolos, portfolio manager for Horizon Kinetics, joins Jack to share his investment philosophy for investing in companies with strong pricing power that benefit from inflationary environments. Recorded on November 14, 2024.

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U.S. Dollar Is Getting Crowded | “Market Wizard” Jason Shapiro on Currencies, Stocks, and Bonds Under Trump Administration Nov 13, 2024

Veteran trader Jason Shapiro joins Jack to share how he perceives positioning across FX, Equities, commodities, and bonds. He thinks the crowded long dollar trade has created a set-up for the Euro to rally, and he estimates that traders are a bit too short of oil and natural gas. Equities is in the “too hard” column so he is neutral, however he sees some short-term risks. Recorded on November 12, 2024.

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Thinking Outside the Style Box | The Hedge Fund Category Problem with Louis Camhi | Other People's Money with Max Wiethe Nov 12, 2024

Hedge fund strategies like distressed, long short equities, relative value, etc. are well defined and understood by allocators. As a result, funds that fit neatly into these style boxes can easily answer the question, “what type of fund are you?” But what if you don’t fit neatly into one of these boxes? Be too exact and no one will search for your niche strategy. Push the envelope to fit into one of these boxes and suddenly investors feel like they’ve been tricked into a meeting. This is a problem that Louis Camhi, founder and CIO of RLH Capital, has had to deal with since launching his SPAC focused strategy in 2021. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Camhi discusses why educating investors about SPACs and defining his fund for style box focused investors has been harder than finding interesting SPAC trades. They also touch on outsourcing back and middle office, the little things you don’t think about when you are working for a larger fund, and the tradeoffs between SMAs and pooled vehicles.

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Let The Bull Loose | Citrini on Trump Trade, China, and Powell Put On Bonds Nov 10, 2024

Citrini, the thematic cross-asset investor known for his prescient and profitable calls on AI and GLP-1s, joins Monetary Matters to review with Jack his “Trump basket” which since its inception in March 4, 2024 to November 8, 2024 is up 87% (his Trump market neutral basket is up 32% over the same time horizon). Citrini explains why he created the basket and how its performance tracked and often predicted Trump’s odds of winning in the betting markets. Upon Trump’s victory, he tells Jack which parts of the basket he thinks are overheated and which have room to run. Citrini also shares his views on AI, the broad stock and bond markets, and the airline industry. Recorded on November 8, 2024.

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A Defiant Chairman Powell Cuts Rates | Jack Farley & Max Wiethe Nov 07, 2024

The Federal Reserve continued its course of interest rate cuts in the first FOMC

meeting following the election of Donald Trump and a defiant Chairman Powell strongly

rejected any notion that Trump’s presidency could affect the independence of the

Federal Reserve. Here, Jack Farley and Max Wiethe discuss the Fed’s move in light of

recent data, the stock market’s run both before and after Trump’s election, and their

outlooks for stocks and the economy moving forward. Recorded on November 7th , 2024.

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Enter the Kuppyverse | Harris Kupperman on Brand Building by Blogging at Praetorian Capital | Other People's Money with Max Wiethe Nov 06, 2024

Harris Kupperman, CIO and Founder of Praetorian Capital joins Max Wiethe to share how he’s grown his firm to over $300 million in AUM, largely by breaking the institutional mold. They discuss Kupperman’s choice to build a strategy with UHNW investors and family offices in mind rather than traditional institutional investors and the benefits of a diversified base of LPs. They also discuss the firm’s blog Kuppy’s Korner, the importance of authenticity in brand building, and his choice to register the fund as a 506(c).

Clarification: At 50:48 Harris mentions that almost half the capital in the fund is from gains. As of September 30th, 2024 44% of the fund's capital is from gains.

Sign up for Kuppy’s Korner at: https://pracap.com

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The Great Millionaire Migration | Basil Mohr-Elzeki on Global Wealth Migration Nov 03, 2024

Email info@monetary-matters.com to inquire about Henley & Partners, and Jack will connect you with Basil.

Basil Mohr-Elzeki, Managing Director and Head of Americas for Henley & Partners, joins Jack on Monetary Matters to explain why more millionaires than ever are going to relocate countries in 2024. He delves into the causes of this phenomenon, the nuances of citizenship and residency investment, and the role that taxes, geographic diversification and other factors play in driving the migration of the world’s high-net-worth individuals.

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Is The Yield Curve’s Recession Signal Wrong?Jeff Snider Oct 30, 2024

Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University joins Jack to explore whether the inverted yield curve signal has been proven wrong, and just how strong or weak the U.S. economy is. Recorded on October 28, 2024.

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To Zero and Beyond | Building Muddy Waters Capital with Carson Block | Other People's Money with Max Wiethe Oct 29, 2024

Building a successful hedge fund is hard. It’s even harder when you’re fighting the perpetual upward momentum of the market. Despite this headwind, Carson Block, CIO and Founder of Muddy Waters Capital, has made his firm into a successful fund management business and taken down billion-dollar frauds in the process. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Block explains why starting a fund became necessary to pursue activist short selling in a serious capacity, the pitfalls of capital raising and the different types of investors who are interested in specialized strategies like theirs, and how he is expanding his business with new strategies beyond activist short selling. Recorded on October 21st, 2024.

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Not Backing Down On Recession Call | David Rosenberg on Wealth Effect, Uncle Sam, and Stock Market Price Bubble Oct 28, 2024

David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to argue why a recession is likely to occur as soon as 2025. Rosenberg points to the low savings rate and argues that fiscal deficits and a stock market price bubble are boosting consumer spending and that this will reverse if the stock market stops going up. Recorded on October 25, 2024.

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The Panic Melt-Up In Bank Stocks | Chris Whalen on Recession Fantasies & Capital Market Reawakening Oct 23, 2024

Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors & Institutional Risk Analyst joins Jack Farley to explain why bank stocks are partying like it’s 1997 again. Recorded on October 21, 2024.

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Chris Whalen’s latest book, “Seeing Around Corners,” https://www.freedommortgage.com/seeingaroundcorners

Lev Menand & Joshua Younger paper that Chris references: https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/faculty_scholarship/4093/

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Jim Rogers on China, Silver, and Timeless Investment Lessons Oct 20, 2024

Investing legend Jim Rogers joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to share timeless investing lessons. Rogers warns that people who blindly follow financial pundits without doing their own analysis are likely doomed to underperform, and he explains why he is a long-term bull on Chinese shares. Rogers argues that the unprecedented sovereign debt levels in the U.S. will reignite inflation, and explains why he continues to view silver as an effective inflation hedge. Recorded on October 17, 2024.

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Beeland Interests https://www.beelandinterests.com/

Jim Rogers’ website https://www.jimrogers.com/

Jim Rogers’ Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers

Inflation Isn’t Dead | Jim Bianco on Why Bond Yields Are Headed Higher Oct 16, 2024

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Bianco Advisors joins Monetary Matters to share his views on inflation, the labor market, and bonds. Bianco argues that the reason the unemployment rate has gone up is because the large amount of immigration into the U.S. has increased the labor force. Bianco makes the case that inflation is headed higher and bond yields now are probably headed higher. Recorded on October 14, 2024.

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Jared Dillian: Private Equity Has Reached A Sentiment Top Oct 13, 2024

Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap and of “Night Moves: And other stories” joins Monetary Matters to discuss his thoughts behind a recent piece he wrote called “The Next Big Short: Hidden Risks Behind Private Equity's $8 Trillion Market.” Jared explains why he has shorted private equity companies and why he thinks private equity has peaked as an asset class and is destined for underperformance over the next decade. Recorded on October 11, 2024.

Jared’s piece, ““The Next Big Short: Hidden Risks Behind Private Equity's $8 Trillion Market”: https://m.jareddillianmoney.com/private-equity-next-big-short

Jared’s Short Private Equity website: https://www.shortprivateequity.com/

Jared’s latest book, “Night Moves: And other stories”: https://www.amazon.com/Night-Moves-stories-Jared-Dillian/dp/B0DFBJS741

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How Chinese “Stimulus” Is Widely Misunderstood | Brian McCarthy Urges Caution On The Chinese Stock Market Surge Oct 09, 2024

SPECIAL “ASK ME ANYTHING” PROMOTION: Leave a rating and review for Monetary Matters on Apple podcast and ask Jack any question you want. Jack will answer some of the questions in future episodes. You can write the question in the body of the review, or you can send your question to to info@monetary-matters.com alongside a screenshot of your review.

Brian McCarthy of Macrolens LLC joins Jack Farley to argue that the tremendous Chinese stock market rally of the past three weeks is fueled by misunderstanding of Chinese economic policy. McCarthy argues that the fiscal stimulus from the Chinese government will be 1 - 2 Trillion Yuan, or ~300 Billion USD, which McCarthy estimates is nowhere near close enough to stimulate the flailing Chinese economy. Recorded the afternoon of October 8, 2024.

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Lyn Alden on China's Real Estate Implosion & Stock Market Rally Oct 06, 2024

Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins Monetary Matters to explain why she is bullish on Chinese equities on a multi-year time horizon, and to share why she thinks nothing will stop the American economy because of the large amount of fiscal deficits the U.S government is running. Recorded on September 30, 2024.

Teucrium’s US Agriculture ETFs provide exposure to commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar in a convenient size and ETF wrapper, right in your traditional brokerage account. Learn more at https://teucrium.com/

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The Oil Market Has A Big Problem | Paul Sankey Oct 04, 2024

Despite rising tensions in the Middle East, today’s guest thinks that the price of oil is headed not higher but lower. Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to share why he thinks the price of oil is headed to as low as $50 as millions of barrels of capacity come online in Guyana, the U.S., and elsewhere, and as Saudi Arabia begins to focus on market share once again. Recorded on October 4, 2024.

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Financial Times article on Saudi desire to take back market share: https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd

Harley Bassman: Bonds Are Fully Cooked Without an Imminent Recession Oct 01, 2024

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, outlines his favorite trades right now and explains why he thinks bonds are fully cooked without an imminent recession. He argues that selling interest rate vol is one of the best ways to play this fully cooked bond market and explains how new issue agency MBS and other callable bonds can be used to take advantage of the richness in bond volatility. Filmed on September 26, 2024.

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Learn more about Simplify https://www.simplify.us

China Fights Its Doom Loop | Leland Miller on Mammoth Stimulus From People's Bank of China Sep 28, 2024

China’s central bank just shocked markets with several impressive sounding stimulus measures, causing the biggest one-week rally in Chinese stocks since 2008. But how effective is this stimulus actually going to be to the Chinese economy? Leland Miller, co-founder & CEO of China Beige Book, joins Monetary Matters to weigh on this very important issue. Leland says he thinks the rally in Chinese stocks could continue for up to two months but that the effect on the Chinese economy will be to stabilize rather than to stimulate. Recorded on September 27, 2024.

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Neil Dutta: This is What a Soft Landing Looks Like Sep 25, 2024

Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, joins Monetary Matters to update his prior call that the US economy would not enter a recession. He explains why a soft landing is still his base case and why he thinks the Fed is properly positioned to engineer that outcome even if soft economic data forces them to cut rates more aggressively. Recorded on September 21, 2024.

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Kris Sidial: "Graveyard Day" Is In Store For Short Volatility Traders Sep 22, 2024

Kris Sidial, co-CIO of Ambrus Group, joins Monetary Matters to break down the conditions in volatility markets that exacerbated the sharp sell-off in early August, and explain why he thinks the risks embedded in the "short vol" trade have only gotten worse. Recorded on September 20, 2024.

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Danielle DiMartino Booth: The Fed Is Still Behind The Curve Sep 19, 2024

Teucrium’s US Agriculture ETFs provide exposure to commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar in a convenient size and ETF wrapper, right in your traditional brokerage account. Learn more at https://teucrium.com/

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, joins Monetary Matters to share her views on the the Federal Reserve’s historic 50 basis point cut. Recorded shortly after Jay Powell’s press conference on September 18, 2024.

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Joseph Wang: Fed Interest Rate Cuts Could Hurt The Stock Market Sep 18, 2024

Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed and publisher of FedGuy.com, joins Jack Farley as the first guest of Monetary Matters. Joseph shares his view on the Federal Reserve's historic double interest rate cut, and explains why he thinks the interest rate cuts could be quite bearish for the stock market. Filmed on September 18, just after Fed Chair Powell's press conference.

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Joseph's latest piece, "When Big Cuts Are Bad": https://fedguy.com/when-big-cuts-are-bad/

Introducing... Monetary Matters Sep 17, 2024

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. First episode going out with Joseph Wang on September 18, shortly after the Federal Reserve begins its cutting rate cycle.

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