Manifold

Latest Episodes:

Jaan Tallinn: Coronavirus, Existential Risk, and AI – #42 Apr 16, 2020

Show notes

Steve talks with Skype founder and global tech investor Jaan Tallinn. Will the coronavirus pandemic lead to better planning for future global risks? Jaan gives his list of top existential risks and describes his efforts to call attention to AI risk. They discuss AGI, the Simulation Question, the Fermi Paradox and how these are all connected. Do we live in a simulation of a quantum multiverse?

Rationality

Additional Resources

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Dan Gable: Legendary NCAA and Olympic Wrestler & Coach – #41 Apr 09, 2020

Show notes

Steve and Corey talk to legendary NCAA and Olympic wrestler and coach Dan Gable. Gable describes the final match of his collegiate career, an NCAA championship upset which spoiled his undefeated high school and college record. The Coach explains how the loss led him to take a more scientific approach to training and was critical for his later success. They discuss the tragic murder of Gable’s sister, and the steps 15-year old Gable took try to save his parents’ marriage. Gable describes his eye for talent and philosophy of developing athletes. Steve gets Gable’s reaction to ultimate fighting and jiujitsu.

Resources

Transcript
Dan Gable vs Larry Owings – 1970 NCAA Title Match (video)
The Champion (1970 documentary on Gable’s senior NCAA season)

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Klaus Lackner on Carbon Capture, Climate Change, and Physics – #40 Apr 02, 2020

Show notes

Steve and Corey talk to Klaus Lackner, director of the Center for Negative Carbon Emissions (CNCE) at Arizona State University and the first person to suggest removing CO2 from air to address climate change. Steve asks whether Klaus’ research was motivated by a tail risk of catastrophic outcomes due to CO2 build up. Klaus explains that he sees atmospheric CO2 as a waste management problem. Calculations show that removing human-produced carbon is energetically and economically viable. Klaus describes his invention, a “mechanical tree”, that passively collects CO2 from the air, allowing it to be stored or converted to fuel.

Resources

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

COVID-19, Blockchain, and the Global Startup Scene – #39 Mar 26, 2020

Show notes

Steve and Corey talk to Kieren James-Lubin and Victor Wong of the blockchain technology startup, BlockApps. They begin with a discussion of the COVID-19 epidemic (~25m): lockdown, predictions of ICU overload, and helicopter money. Will personal contact tracking become the new normal? Transitioning to blockchain, a technology many view as viable even in times of widespread societal disruption, they give a basic explanation of the underlying cryptographic and consensus algorithms. Kieren and Victor explain how BlockApps was founded, its business model, and history as a startup. They conclude with a comparison of startup ecosystems in China, Silicon Valley, and NYC.

Resources

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Claude Steele on the Challenges of Multi-Cultural Societies – #38 Mar 19, 2020

Show notes

Corey and Steve talk to Claude Steele of Stanford about his article “Why Campuses are So Tense?”. The essay explores stereotype threats across racial lines. Colorblindness is a standard of fairness, but what are the costs of ignoring our differences? Claude describes his research on minority underperformance and why single sex colleges may contribute to women’s success. Corey describes why he believes his daughter’s experience is a counterexample to the findings of the experiments that led the Supreme Court to outlaw segregation. The three discuss parenting in a diverse world and how ethnic integration differs between Europe and the US.

Resources

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

A.J. Robison on the Neural Basis of Sex Differences in Depression – #37 Mar 12, 2020

Show notes

Corey and Steve talk with MSU Neuroscientist A.J. Robison about why females may be more likely to suffer from depression than males. A.J. reviews past findings that low testosterone and having a smaller hippocampus may predict depression risk. He explains how a serendipitous observation opened up his current line of research and describes tools he uses to study neural circuits. Steve asks about the politics of studying sex differences and tells of a start up using CRISPR to attack heart disease. The three end with a discussion of the psychological effects of ketamine, testosterone and deep brain stimulation.

Topics

01:18 – Link between antidepressants, neurogenesis and reducing risk of depression
13:54 – Nature of Mouse models
23:19 – How you tell whether a mouse exhibits depressive symptoms
32:36 – Liz Williams’ serendipitous finding and the issue of biological sex
45:47 – A.J.’s research plans for circuit specific gene editing in the mouse brain and a start up’s plan to use it to tackle human cardiovascular disease
59:07 – Psychological and Neurological Effects of Ketamine. Testosterone and Deep Brain Stimulation

Resources

Papers

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Kaja Perina on the Dark Triad: Narcissism, Machiavellianism, and Psychopathy – #36 Mar 05, 2020

Show notes

Kaja Perina is the Editor in Chief of Psychology Today. Kaja, Steve, and Corey discuss so-called Dark Triad personality traits: Narcissism, Machiavellianism, and Psychopathy. Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people? What is the difference between Sociopathy and Psychopathy? Are CEOs often “warm sociopaths”? Can too much empathy be a liability? Corey laments Sociopathy in academic Philosophy. Kaja explains the operation of Psychology Today. Steve reveals his Hypomania diagnoses.

Topics

2:33 – Psychopathology and the Dark Triad
11:34 – Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people?
17:52 – Can too much empathy be a liability?
35:16 – Corey laments Sociopathy in academic Philosophy
50:32 – Kaja explains the operation of Psychology Today
1:01:06 – Steve reveals his Hypomania diagnoses

Resources

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Adam Dynes on Noisy Retrospection: The Effect of Party Control on Policy Outcomes – #35 Feb 27, 2020

Show notes

Steve and Corey talk to Adam Dynes of Brigham Young University about whether voting has an effect on policy outcomes. Adam’s work finds that control of state legislatures or governorships does not have an observable effect on macroscopic variables such as crime rates, the economy, etc. Possible explanations: parties push essentially the same policies, politicians don’t keep promises, monied interest control everything. Are voting decisions just noisy mood affiliation? Perhaps time is better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure.

Topics

1:22 – What is retrospective voting?
5:43 – Research findings on retrospective voting
14:02 – Uniparty/Monied interests?
17:23 – Martin Gilens’ research
23:10 – Are people just voting based on noise or mood affiliation?
27:13 – Bryan Caplan – Myth of the Rational Voter
34:35 – Is time better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure?
39:42 – After the fall of Athens, was democracy commonly referred to as irrational mob rule?
48:22 – Does this research translate to the national level?
52:19 – Super Nerdy Stuff: Statistical Analysis, Reproducibility & Null Results
56:40 – Reactions to the results

Resources

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Yang Wang on Science and Technology in China, Hong Kong Protests, and Coronavirus – #34 Feb 20, 2020

Show notes

Yang Wang is Dean of Science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Wang received his BS degree in mathematics from University of Science and Technology of China in 1983, and his PhD degree from Harvard University in 1990 under the supervision of Fields medalist David Mumford. He served as Chair of the Mathematics department at Michigan State University before joining HKUST.

Topics

2:50 – US-China Relations: Has China advanced through the development of human capital or the theft of intellectual property?
16:23 – Academic Culture in China
33:00 – Hong Kong Protests: Economic inequality, housing prices, and outside actors.
1:04:09 – Coronavirus COVID-19: Has the Coronavirus established a new mode of online education in Hong Kong? Yang makes a forecast about the epidemic’s trajectory.

Resources

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Elizabeth Kolbert on Climate Change: Impacts and Mitigation Technologies – #33 Feb 13, 2020

Show notes

Steve and Corey talk to Elizabeth Kolbert, author of the Sixth Extinction, about the current state of the climate debate. All three are pessimistic about the possibility that emissions will be substantively reduced in the near term, and they discuss technologies for removing carbon from the atmosphere. They explore uncertainty in the models regarding temperatures rise and precipitation, and contemplate a billion people are on the move in response to climate change and population increase. They ask: what is more of a threat to humanity in the coming century, runaway AI or runaway climate change?

Resources

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

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