Macro Mondays

Will the Fed Finish the Job? Nov 19, 2024

Will the Fed Finish the Job? Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, to break down the latest news and forces driving global markets on this live edition of Macro Mondays.
Check more from the duo at www.stenoresearch.com

Macro Mondays #74 - When the Trump bet dies, here's what to look for Nov 11, 2024

We assess the fallout from the Presidential election. How long will the Trump wave last and what's hiding behind it all in the macro world?
Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
Check out the episode on youtube to see the graphs & videos we look at:
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Macro Mondays #73 - What the f*ck is happening to Bonds? Nov 04, 2024

As the election looms we take a closer look at the bond market in the aftermath of an abysmal jobs report on Friday. We also preview Fed and BoE meetings and Chinese stimulus news.
Monetary Metals pays a yield on gold and silver in physical ounces of metal, with free storage and insurance. Right now, you can earn 2-5% on gold, paid in gold, and up to 12% annually on silver, paid in silver, in their latest offerings. Go to www.realvision.com/metals for more information.
Check out the episode on youtube to see the graphs & videos we look at.
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Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
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Macro Mondays #72 - Are markets prepared for a liquidity tsunami? Oct 28, 2024

We take a closer look at the upcoming wave if liquidity expected from the US Fed. How is Andreas Steno positioned for this and how can you prepare?
We also dive into the current sell off in oil and rising bond yields - plus a very interesting election result in Japan
Monetary Metals pays a yield on gold and silver in physical ounces of metal, with free storage and insurance. Right now, you can earn 2-5% on gold, paid in gold, and up to 12% annually on silver, paid in silver, in their latest offerings. Go to www.realvision.com/metals for more information.
Check out the episode on youtube to see the graphs & videos we look at.
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Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
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Macro Mondays #71 - the Polymarket effect Oct 21, 2024

Has the volatile Polymarket betting on the US Presidential Election boosted the USD and what does this tell us about markets and the likely reception of a Trump win?

We cover the outlook for US inflation and growth as well as the ECB cutting season and the chances of a jumbo cut at their next meeting.

Read more about Andreas' new macro strategy right here: www.stenoglobalmacro.com"

Monetary Metals pays a yield on gold and silver in physical ounces of metal, with free storage and insurance. Right now, you can earn 2-5% on gold, paid in gold, and up to 12% annually on silver, paid in silver, in their latest offerings. Go to www.realvision.com/metals for more information.
Check out the episode on youtube to see the graphs & videos we look at.
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Macro Mondays #70 - The Beijing Nothing Burger Oct 15, 2024

The Beijing "fiscal bazooka" has been center of attention in global macro in recent weeks, but what did we actually get from the Chinese government and what is the outlook for the Chinese economy? We also cover the upcoming USD liquidity tsunami and how that should affect your risk balance in USD markets.
Monetary Metals pays a yield on gold and silver in physical ounces of metal, with free storage and insurance. Right now, you can earn 2-5% on gold, paid in gold, and up to 12% annually on silver, paid in silver, in their latest offerings. Go to www.realvision.com/metals for more information.
Check out the episode on youtube to see the graphs & videos we look at.
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Macro Mondays #69 - Stimulating an OK economy Oct 07, 2024

Is the Fed cutting into strenght, and will the economy make a comeback into 2025? We look at the models after the NFP surprise.
Monetary Metals pays a yield on gold and silver in physical ounces of metal, with free storage and insurance. Right now, you can earn 2-5% on gold, paid in gold, and up to 12% annually on silver, paid in silver, in their latest offerings. Go to www.realvision.com/metals for more information.
Check out the episode on youtube to see the graphs & videos we look at.
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Macro Mondays #68 - China bringing a potent knife to a gunfight? Sep 30, 2024

The rally in Chinese-linked assets is one of the most bizarre seen in newer financial markets history. Is the Chinese stimulus package a game-changer or is it insufficient to structurally turn the tide? Meanwhile, a wave of liquidity will arrive in Q4.
Monetary Metals pays a yield on gold and silver in physical ounces of metal, with free storage and insurance. Right now, you can earn 2-5% on gold, paid in gold, and up to 12% annually on silver, paid in silver, in their latest offerings. Go to www.realvision.com/metals for more information.
Check out the episode on youtube to see the graphs & videos we look at.
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Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
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Macro Mondays #67 - How to position for the cutting season? Sep 23, 2024

We digest the jumbo cut and take a deep dive into what our models tell us about the ideal positioning in this scenario.
We also cover key risk areas - both in the Middle East and in the US hiring numbers.
Check out the episode on youtube to see the graphs & videos we look at.
Monetary Metals pays a yield on gold and silver in physical ounces of metal, with free storage and insurance. Right now, you can earn 2-5% on gold, paid in gold, and up to 12% annually on silver, paid in silver, in their latest offerings. Go to www.realvision.com/metals for more information.

Macro Mondays #66 - 25BP or 50BP? And how to position Sep 16, 2024

We evaluate last week's key CPI numbers and look ahead to the FOMC meeting this week. While a cut seems destined, it's going to be extremely key whether the Fed opts for a 25 or 50 bp cut. We gauge the chances and talks positioning - including Fixed Income and Commodities.
Check out the episode on youtube to see the graphs & videos we look at.
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Macro Mondays #65 - Is this sell-off even worse? Sep 09, 2024

It's been another red week in markets, so we take a closer look at the macro factors driving the development and what the outlook is for the coming weeks and months. We look at US liquidity trends as well as growth trends in China - who both could be pointing at a worse and stickier sell-off. Finally, we touch upon the US presidential debate tomorrow!
Check out the episode on youtube to see the videos & memes we look at.
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Macro Mondays #64 - Was the H1 Rebound a fake? Sep 03, 2024

We take a closer look at the manufacturing rebound in the first half of 2024. Was is a real rebound or driven by temporary, "fake" circumstances like the China tarriffs?

We also dive into our current macro regime which suggests a bleak september. That could also be the case for the oil producing countries, which we take a closer look at this week too.

Check out the episode on youtube to see the videos & memes we look at.
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Macro Mondays #63 - What to make of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech Aug 26, 2024

We take a closer look at Jay Powell's Jackson Hole Speech and gauge the unemployment and inflation outlook for the US. Furthermore, we dive into the USDJPY trade and why Powell's cutting season might be a catastrophe for Ueda and Japan
Check out the episode on youtube to see the videos & memes we look at.
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Macro Mondays #62 - Shelter, liquidity & is it time to buy again? Aug 19, 2024

This week we take a look at whats going on in the Ukraine, advisors taking a pessimistic turn, where is liquidity headed & is it time to buy again?
Joining us is Bob Elliott from Unlimited Funds.
https://x.com/bobeunlimited
Check out the episode on youtube to see the videos & memes we look at.
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Token2049 week in Singapore - 16-22 September.
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Macro Mondays #61 - Advisors turning pessimistic & The Ukraine Aug 12, 2024

This week we take a look at the macro regime model, is it time to buy again, where is liquidity headed & what is going on in the Ukraine?
Join us!
Check out the episode on youtube to see the videos & memes we look at.
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Macro Mondays #60 - BoJ Aftermath & The Gold Trade. Aug 05, 2024

This week we take a look at the Fed meeting and how it went, the middle east turmoil, the BoJ aftermath and much more!
Check out the episode on youtube to see the videos & memes we look at.
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Token2049 week in Singapore - 16-22 September.
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Macro Mondays #59 - Stop worrying about employment and look forward! Jul 29, 2024

We take a closer look at last weeks correction and the outlook for risk assets. Furthermore, we dive into this week's BoJ and Fed Meetings and preview the non-farm payrolls and ISM manufacturing numbers. Hear why you should stop worrying about employment figures and look forward instead!
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Macro Mondays #58 - What will Kamalanomics look like? Jul 22, 2024

Join the team talking Kamala on economics, the great rotation, the CCP plenum & much more.
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Macro Mondays #57 - It’s a GUNG HO SUMMER! Jul 15, 2024

This week we take a look at a possible Gung-Ho summer, the Cape of Good Hope traffic jam, the german bitcoin sell-off & much more!
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Token2049 week in Singapore - 16-22 September.
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Macro Mondays #56 - 3 recession indicators you need to watch Jul 08, 2024

Election Bonanza this week on Macro Mondays.
We take a look at the UK, French & Iranian election.
Furthermore, are we moving towards a Recession or not?
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Macro Mondays #55 - What is China doing with all it’s copper? Jul 01, 2024

This week on Macro Mondays the team touch upon China & Japan, Hawkish surprises out of “monetary canaries” & the Biden-Trump debate.
Join us!
Guest: Marc Myllerup of Copenhagen Merchants
https://x.com/MarcMyllerup
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Macro Mondays #54 - The Charts YOU NEED TO KNOW This Week Jun 24, 2024

Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back for another episode of Macro Mondays with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research partner and head of geopolitics, to analyze U.S. construction, UK CPI numbers, and Chinese copper markets. They also dig into dollar liquidity and what recent geopolitical events mean for the economy. Recorded on June 21, 2024.
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Macro Mondays #53 - Get the Hell Outta Europe: Inflation, Elections, and Market Moves Jun 17, 2024

🔥 𝗝𝗢𝗜𝗡 Real Vision for FREE https://rvtv.io/3MMeRfQ. Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back for another episode of Macro Mondays with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, to dig into what’s going on with the European economy.
Andreas and Mikkel also cover China, geopolitics, and Solana. Recorded on June 14, 2024.
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Macro Mondays #52 Escaping the TRAP of Sideways Markets - Guest: Mads Eberhardt Jun 10, 2024

Macro Mondays is back with all new charts and analysis... Andreas Steno Larsen is back to break down all the latest news, narratives, and market developments in this week’s edition of Macro Mondays. The founder and CEO of @stenoresearch is joined by his co-host, Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics at Steno Research, and special guest Mads Eberhardt, the company’s senior crypto analyst. Recorded on June 7, 2024.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Introduction to Macro Mondays
00:37 - Overview of the Week’s Topics
01:09 - Bitcoin Inflows Discussion
02:25 - Mount Gox Bankruptcy Update
05:30 - Meme of the Week: Jay Powell
06:39 - Central Banks Rate Cuts
09:12 - Real Vision Community Promotion
09:48 - Trump Soundbite and US Labor Market
12:48 - Transformation of the US Job Market
16:14 - Listener Feedback: Job Interview Traits
18:30 - Upcoming Week’s Focus: Liquidity and Inflation
21:22 - Liquidity Environment and Central Banks
23:01 - Impact on Crypto Market
24:19 - Portfolio Strategy: China vs. India
27:49 - Inflation Protection Strategy
29:26 - Conclusion

Macro Monday #51 - Germany rebounding! Jun 03, 2024

The team takes a look at Germany rebounding implications,
Freight rates and the ramifications for Copper, Silver & Natural Gas.
Also Crypto News & a look at the week ahead.
Join us!

Macro Sunday #50 - Macro Monday & Copper Tourism? Guest: Freya Beamish May 26, 2024

This week on Macro Sunday ( next week - Macro Monday ) the team touches upon the Ethereum & Bitcoin ETF, freight rates, copper tourism & much more.
Join us!
Guest: Freya Beamish - TS Lombard
https://www.tslombard.com/freya-beamish
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Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
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If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel:
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CHAPTERS -
00:00. Introduction
02:06. Ethereum & Bitcoin ETF
05:22. Freight rates
15:51. Interview - Freya Beamish
36:10. Copper tourists?
41:44. Portfolio News
#economics
#trading
#interestrate
#useconomy
#macroeconomy
#cryptocurrency
#crypto
#mortgageinterestrates
#usgdp
#economicrecession
#usrecession
#softlanding
#redsea
#podcast
#economy
#banking
#joebiden
#election
#trump

Macro Sunday #49 - PCI report hot as Greece & Chinas air pollution! Guest: Marvin Barth May 19, 2024

Join the team this week for a discussion on the PCI report, Chinas weather, the business cycle watch & much more.
Guest: Marvin Barth - Thematic Markets.
https://thematicmarkets.com/
https://twitter.com/marvinjbarth
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Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
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CHAPTERS -
00:00. Introduction
02:04. CPI report hot as Greece
06:30. China - air pollution
15:51. Interview - Marvin Barth
46:00. Business cycle watch
50:00. Portfolio News
#economics
#trading
#interestrate
#useconomy
#macroeconomy
#cryptocurrency
#crypto
#mortgageinterestrates
#usgdp
#economicrecession
#usrecession
#softlanding
#redsea
#podcast
#economy
#banking
#joebiden
#election
#trump

Macro Sunday #48 - Freddie Mac Proposal, Truth Media Stock & Boeing Scandal May 12, 2024

The team takes a look at the Freddie Mac proposal, the situation in Israel, the Trump hush money trial, rents, inflation and much more.
Join in on the discussion!
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Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
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CHAPTERS -
00:00. Introduction
02:26. Freddie Mac Proposal
08:36. Trump Hush Money & Dollar
15:44. Israel & Boeing
22:38. Rents & Inflation
29:50. Portfolio News
#economics
#trading
#interestrate
#useconomy
#macroeconomy
#cryptocurrency
#crypto
#mortgageinterestrates
#usgdp
#economicrecession
#usrecession
#softlanding
#redsea
#podcast
#economy
#banking
#joebiden
#election
#trump

Macro Sunday #47 - Trump handling interest & China / Singapore May 05, 2024

The team takes a look at the US economy, the Trump & interest rate situation, China / Singapore and the crypto news.
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Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
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CHAPTERS -
00:00. Introduction
01:33. US economy
10:04. Trump on interest rate
16:12. China / Singapore
24:24. Crypto news
30:10. Outro
#economics
#trading
#interestrate
#useconomy
#macroeconomy
#cryptocurrency
#crypto
#mortgageinterestrates
#usgdp
#economicrecession
#usrecession
#softlanding
#redsea
#podcast
#economy
#banking
#joebiden
#election
#trump

Macro Sunday #47 - POSTPONED TO NEXT WEEK Apr 28, 2024

We are sorry to inform you that this weeks episode has to be postponed to next week, due to reason out of our hands.
We wish you a great sunday and hope to see you again next week.
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#economics
#trading
#interestrate
#useconomy
#macroeconomy
#cryptocurrency
#crypto
#mortgageinterestrates
#usgdp
#economicrecession
#usrecession
#softlanding
#redsea
#podcast
#economy
#banking
#joebiden
#election
#trump

Macro Sunday #46 - Inflation in developed markets but not in emerging markets? Apr 21, 2024

We host Vincent Deluard for a discussion on inflation trends in the US, Europe but also in China and Lat-Am. Will the Chinese deflation mainly impact EM, while the shrinking labour force of the West will lead to a renewed inflation pressure in Europe- and the US?
Remember to use Geo30 to get 30% off your subscription. It is a limited offer.
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Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
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CHAPTERS -
00:00. Introduction
02:46. Sour Equities?
09:32. Iranian Attack
15:20. Interview - Vincent Deluard
39:48. "Sticky-er" Inflation?
43:28. Portfolio News
#economics
#trading
#interestrate
#useconomy
#macroeconomy
#cryptocurrency
#crypto
#mortgageinterestrates
#usgdp
#economicrecession
#usrecession
#softlanding
#redsea
#podcast
#economy
#banking
#joebiden
#election
#trump

Macro Sunday #45 - Is the next move a rate hike? Guest: Danny Dayan Apr 14, 2024

We host Danny Dayan for a discussion on the accelerating US inflation picture. Could the Fed move towards a neutral stance in June and a hike in 2025? Danny says yes and offers his compelling arguments
Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
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CHAPTERS -
00:00. Introduction
03:00. US CPI
06:55. Commodity Rally?
11:00. Interview - Danny Dayan
39:50. China Preparing?
46:30. Portfolio News
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Macro Sunday #44 - The fake business cycle - Guest: Bob Elliot Apr 07, 2024

Is the business cycle sending fake signals again, and is it fair that markets have priced out the entire recession risk? How will inflation assets thrive in Q2 given the Manufacturing rebound and are commodities, especially within metals, overbought in light of this? We take the discussion with former CO-CIO of Bridgewater Bob Elliot who is now running the investment office at Unlimited Funds.
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CHAPTERS -
00:00. Introduction
02:20. Cyclical upswing?
12:32. Interview - Bob Elliot
32:26. The Geopolitical situation
36:00. Portfolio news
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Macro Sunday #43 - Brr-man Powell & ISIS in Russia? Guest: Dario Perkins Mar 31, 2024

This week on Macro Sunday we take a look at Brr-man Powell, USD inflation, what happened in Russia, how to trade a Biden win & much more. Join us!
Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
Guest: Dario Perkins, TS Lombard
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CHAPTERS -
00:00. Introduction
03:00. Head Fake Reflation
13:18. Interview - Dario Perkins
39:00. Geopolitics - Russia, Netanyahu
48:52. Portfolio news
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Macro Sunday #42 - Can the gold rally continue? Guest: Bob Moriarty, 321gold.com Mar 24, 2024

Andreas is out of town, so it's a show of contrarian takes as we discuss gold, silver and everything related.
Can the gold rally continue and what metals and commodities are interesting throughout 2024? We consult the seasoned gold investor and fighter pilot Bob Moriarty of 321gold.com in this edition of Macro Sunday.
Host: Mikkel Rosenvold
Guest: Bob Moriarty, 321gold
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Macro Sunday #41 - Commodities breaking out - including Crypto! Guest: Mads Eberhardt Mar 17, 2024

Oil, Copper and Silver have broken out of recent ranges and the overall commodity picture is starting to look technically compelling. Meanwhile, the inflow to the “digital commodity” Bitcoin remains strong leaving to new records by the day! We look into the physical and digital commodity markets in this weeks Macro Sunday. Guest: Mads Eberhardt
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Macro Sunday #40 - More liquidity is coming! Guest: Joseph Wang Mar 10, 2024

Liquidity levels are improving in USDs and more may be upcoming via the depletion of the ON RRP. Will the Fed move towards more benign balance sheet policies over the course of the year? And how about a potential operation "Twist"? Meanwhile, China is allowing the public deficit to grow. Is China the next positive surprise? Guest: Joseph Wang aka. The Fed Guy
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Macro Sunday #39 - Do you own enough commodities? Guest: Tracy Shuchart Mar 03, 2024

The cyclical rotation of asset markets is ongoing and
the Manufacturing sector seems to be improving by the month.
The consensus is getting very upbeat on the US
growth picture but what about China and Europe?
Is the Rest of the World ready to beat expectations
and do you own enough commodities in case?
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Guest of the week: Tracy Shuchart of https://hilltowerresourceadvisors.com/
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Macro Sunday #38 - MELT UP! Special guest: Mads Eberhardt Feb 25, 2024

Assets are melting up right, left and center as the optimism around the
business cycle is improving.
Is it fair to assume that countries outside of the US are improving? And how do you trade the cyclical comeback?
Crypto assets are also celebrating the cyclical uptick and we are joined by Mads Eberhardt to discuss the Crypto market post the launch of Bitcoin ETFs.
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Macro Sunday #37 - Inflation is BACK! - Guest: Freya Beamish Feb 18, 2024

We discuss the resurgence of US inflation, which rhymes well with our forward looking indicators.
Will inflation return to 2% at all in this cycle?
Our guest Freya Beamish of TS Lombard is not positive on China, but sees a strong structural case in Japan.
Tune in!
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Macro Sunday #36 - Recession called off? Guest: Mikael Sarwe Feb 11, 2024

Is the US recession called off and is it even possible to talk about a re-acceleration of the economy?
Where does it leave the hopes for a cutting cycle from the Fed and how will asset markets respond?
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Macro Sunday #35 - War between the US and Iran? Guest: Jacob Shapiro Feb 04, 2024

Are we on the verge of war between the US and Iran? The Suez troubles continue but freight rates have leveled off somewhat despite growing tensions between the US and Iran. How close are we to an all in war? We look at the geopolitics and the ramifications for global markets with Jacob Shapiro of Cognitive Investments
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Macro Sunday #34 - The Red Sea is WORSENING Jan 28, 2024

The hopes for a quick solution in the Red Sea are fading and the global inflation impact will likely be lasting. The crisis is now spreading from containers to dry bulk and energy.
How will Chinese, European and US markets react to this?
Hosts: Andreas Steno, Mikkel Rosenvold and Emil Moller
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Macro Sunday #33 - A new supply shock? Guest: Dario Perkins Jan 21, 2024

We are once again joined by our favourite global macro economist, Dario Perkins of TS
Lombard, to discuss the supply shock in the Red Sea. Will the freight rates wreak havoc with the 2024 cutting cycle consensus?
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Macro Sunday #32 - Inflation strikes back! Guest: Bob Elliott Jan 14, 2024

US inflation is accelerating again but the market is yet to care. Meanwhile, freight rates
continue to rise on the back of increasing tensions in the Red Sea and goods inflation is
threatening to come back with a vengeance. Will the Fed forward pricing prove to be off?
We discuss it with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds
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Macro Sunday #31 - Spiking freight rates bringing back inflation? Jan 07, 2024

The situation in the Red Sea is worsening and freight rates are on the rise in some subsectors. Can the situation escalate into a new inflation spiral and what does it mean for the positive 2024 outlooks from right about every investment bank?
We discuss the situation with a selection of analysts at Steno Research.
If you find our research valuable, please visit www.stenoresearch.com - there is always a 14 day free trial and you can use the code Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription until Jan 15!
Hosts: Andreas Steno, Mikkel Rosenvold, Mads Eberhardt & Emil Møller
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#30 - How’s consensus going to be wrongfooted in 2024? Guest: Marvin Barth Dec 31, 2023

How are markets positioned for 2024?
We discuss the consensus outlook with Marvin Barth of Thematic Markets and weigh pros/cons of betting against the consensus in various asset classes.
Will the Soft Landing narrative prevail or will tail scenarios unfold in 2024?
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#29 - Inflation Volatility is back! Guest: Claus Vistesen Dec 24, 2023

Is the new ECB/Fed inflation forecast way off?
And will inflation resurface already during 2024?
Those are key questions for asset allocators. We host a thought provoking discussion with the tremendous Claus Vistesen of Pantheon.
Find out more at www.stenoresearch.com - always 14 days free trial access to our research
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Hosts: Andreas Steno

#28 - Powell invites for a risk asset party. Guest: Raoul Pal Dec 17, 2023

Jay Powell invited for a massive risk asset party after the Fed opened the door for several cuts in 2023. Will the Fed suddenly prove to be the most dovish of the big central banks anyway? We assess the outlook for the big three central banks while also discussing whether this is a mid-cycle rate cutting cycle or the start of a recession.
Our guest of the week, Raoul Pal, thinks we are in an early cycle dynamic and that central banks are late to react to what was a recessionary pricing of risk assets in 2022.

#27 - There is no fever like gold fever - Guest: Ronnie Stoeferle Dec 10, 2023

Gold has been rallying hard alongside bonds in October and November, but who are the buyers? Retail or central banks? We discuss the Gold outlook with the author of In Gold We Trust, Ronnie Stoeferle of Incrementum Funds
On top of that, we discuss the situation in Guyana and the ramifications for our suffering oil longs.
Find out more at www.stenoresearch.com - always 14 days free trial access to our research
Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Moller
Guest: Ronnie Stoferle of Incrementum Funds

#26 - Are central banks asleep at the wheel? Guest: Cathie Wood Dec 03, 2023

We are joined by the renowned Tech investor Cathie Woods of ARK to discuss the rally in duration heavy equity assets through 2023. Will the rally continue if the Fed is done hiking? And will US Treasury markets also deliver better returns in 2024?
All that amidst the turbulence from the OPEC meeting.
Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Møller
Guest: Cathie Woods from https://ark-invest.com/
Steno Research Discount Code: crypto20

#25 - Why is offshore wind not performing? Guest: Suriya Jayanti Nov 26, 2023

We host the former Chief of the Energy unit at the US Embassy in Kiev and co-founder of the Eney LCC, Suriya Jayanti for a discussion of the malaise in offshore wind markets. Why is wind energy suffering and is China to blame?
Tune in as we discuss the future energy mix in Europe and the US in light of recent developments and how it is likely to impact your portfolio.
For more information about Steno Research go to https://stenoresearch.com/
For more information about the guest of the week please visit https://www.suriyajayanti.com/

#24 - The End of US Outperformance? - Guest: Mike Green Nov 19, 2023

We host the great Mike Green for a talk on the outlook for the strong-going US economy in comparison to Europe and Asia.
We also cover the softer-than-expected CPI prints and the subsequent rally in equities and take a victory lap on our Germany trade.
To see our full model portfolio and access all our research, sign up for a FREE 2-week trial at www.stenoresearch.com.
Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Møller
Guest: Mike Green, Simplify Asset Management

#23 - Are central banks insolvent? Guest: Dario Perkins Nov 12, 2023

We are joined by one of the best central bank watchers in the world, Dario Perkins of TS Lombard to discuss whether negative equity in central banks practically matter.
Dario says theoretically no, but practically yes while also introducing his "Perkins rule" for recession watching.
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Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Emil Møller
Guest. Dario Perkins
Special guest: Mads Eberhardt

#22 - Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! - Guest: Weston Nakamura Nov 05, 2023

The Bank of Japan is the only major currency authority in the post-COVID era to fight back against USD strength via intervention - and win. Can they pull it off again?
We host the great Weston Nakamura for a deep-dive into the Japanese monetary and fiscal policy.
Towards the end, we give an update on our current positioning and the portfolio outlook for the remainder of 2023.
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Check out Weston's analysis on his substack right here:

https://westonnakamura.substack.com/p/yentervention-worlds-only-defense

#21 - Is the US Treasury onslaught over? - Guest: Bob Elliott, Unlimited Funds Oct 29, 2023

We host the great Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to a deep dive into the outlook for US Treasuries. What does the new House speaker and upcoming appropriations talks mean for markets and treasuries and how will the US fund yet another war? We also discuss the newest inflations trends and how we position ourselves in these testing times.
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Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Moller
Guest: Bob Elliott, Unlimited Funds

#20 - Math and why does it matter? - Guest: Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank Oct 22, 2023

Live from his vacation home in sunny Spain, Andreas hosts the great Steen Jakobsen of Saxo Bank to a talk on commodities, positioning and in particular "Inflation math". Why are we so slow to adjusting our thinking to a high interest and high inflation environment and how should we adapt? Hear a great analysis from Steen as well as an update on our very own portfolio and current research here at Steno Research.
Host: Andreas Steno Larsen
Guest: Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank

#19 - Energy Stocks are the New Bonds Oct 15, 2023

We host the great Warren Pies in a discussion on oil, bonds and everything related. Are energy stocks the new bonds and why? We take a closer look.
We also cover recent movements on our model portfolio and what changes we see coming up.
Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Moller
Guest: 3Fourteen Research
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#18 - Higher energy prices triggering a recession? Oct 08, 2023

Will the energy price rally trigger the recession as consumer savings are depleted? We look at this week's EIA data, whether it can be trusted and how it all impacted the world of Macro and your portfolio.
The recession is likely in Q1 2024 still - and here's how we view and trade it!
Hosts. Andreas Steno and Emil Moller
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#17 - The Nuclear Option Oct 01, 2023

Is the day of reckoning for nuclear power here at last? After years of stagnation, markets are beginning to show some promise for nuclear technology. Today, we'll examine the state of nuclear energy and delve into the current conditions of the commodity and energy markets with John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management.
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Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Emil Møller

#16 - Pause or not, and how to trade it? Guests: Dennis Lockhart and Frances Donald Sep 24, 2023

Are the central banks on pause or not? We cover all the CB decisions/non-decisions this week and talk to former President of the Atlanta Fed and former FOMC member Dennis Lockhart to get his view on the central bank situation. How does Dennis view the FOMC meeting and the US economy in general?
Afterwards, we call up Frances Donald, Global Chief Economist at Manulife Investment for some great analysis of the current situation. What are the right bets in markets and will risk assets surge as they did in 2007?
Remember to get 30% off your first three purchases at www.stenoresearch.com with the coupon code 'macro30'.
Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Emil Møller

#15 - Was that a pause from Lagarde? Sep 17, 2023

Has the anti-Europe trade become the consensus or is there still juice in the story? We discuss the prospects of European gas storages and the ongoing recession in the North of the continent. Can Europe surprise negatively and will that surprise the ECB? Should you actually watch Southern Europe and not Northern Europe from here on?
We also discuss the differences between the U.S. and European labour markest post-pandemic. Why are we not seeing ghost towns in Europe and what does this mean for markets?
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Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold

#14 - Is the Second Inflation Wave Coming? - Guest: Mikael Sarwe, Nordea Bank Sep 10, 2023

Oil could be up as much as 25-30% during Q4 due to the production cuts out of Saudi Arabia and Russia. This is beginning to smell like the 1970's and we take a closer look at how that affects inflation and growth with the great Mikael Sarwe of Nordea Bank. We also discuss inflation outlooks in both the U.S. and Europe.
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Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold
Guest: Mikael Sarwe, Nordea

#13 - The Rasputin Effect - Guest: Michael Cembalest, J.P. Morgan Sep 03, 2023

Is the U.S. labour market finally crashing? What will it take to kill the U.S. economy? We ask Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan who explains The Rasputin Effect. We also cover the outlook for fiscal policy, interest rates and the short- and longterm effects of the Chips Act and IRA in this great interview. And of course - we give our take on how to allocate given all of this.
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Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Møller
Guest: Michael Cembalest

#12 - USD patriots vs. CNY patriots - Guest: Tony Nash Aug 27, 2023

Has the PBoC won against speculators in Chinese FX markets? And will equities stabilize due to the contained outflows from China? We invite Tony Nash, former Director at The Economist Intelligence Unit in Asia to discuss the evolving crisis in Beijing. Tony has extensive knowledge from working both in Singapore and China and sees this ongoing tug of war as a patriotic combat.
Finally, you get our weekly update on portfolio flows, where we elaborate why again prefer to short assets in our own neck of the woods in Europe.
Use the exclusive offer Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription at www.stenoresearch.com

#11 - Macro Sunday: 3 scenarios for the Chinese response to the RE malaise Aug 20, 2023

We host Michael Kao for a discussion on the Chinese tool-box and whether the 7.30 line in the sand will hold or not.
The situation is very binary. Either risk appetite will return or else you need to run for the hills.
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#10 - A steeper curve to create a recession - Guest: Bob Elliot Aug 13, 2023

The yield curve inversion was never a recession signal. An uninversion and higher rates (via bear steepening) is needed to push the economy in to recession.
We discuss the allocation playbook given the knowledge we have on the yield curve with Bob Elliot, former Bridgewater and now CIO of Unlimited Funds.
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#9 - Coups, YCC and the big rotation trade Aug 06, 2023

Is the big rotation now ongoing in rates and equities after the BoJ steepened the JGB curve?
Find out as we discuss the bizarre developments in Niger, Jeddah and Japan in light of the material steepening of the USD curve.
You can find more on www.stenoresearch.com and use the exclusive code Macro30 to get 30% off your annual subscription.

#8 - From recession to Goldilocks - USA USA USA - Guest: Darius Dale Jul 30, 2023

From a technical recession in July-2022 to a widespread acceleration in July-2023. The US economy is not done performing and the interest rate sensitivity seems much smaller than usual.
What has changed in the US economy and is the soft landing an actual feasible scenario?
We host Darius Dale of 42 Macro for a discussion on the strenght of the US economy and how to trade it.
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#7 - Breaking: 3 reasons why the BoJ decision is NOT a gamechanger Jul 28, 2023

Markets initially panicked after the Bank of Japan decision to move the needle on the yield curve control was leaked.
The new yield curve control regime is much more flexible, which can actually be seen as a positive.
We discuss the surprise decision by Bank of Japan in this short Breaking edition of “Macro Sunday”
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#6 - Geopolitical risks are back - Guest: Claus Vistesen Jul 23, 2023

Why is the EUR so resilient? And will it continue to be so in the wake of renewed geopolitical turmoil in the Eastern parts of the continent?
We welcome Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Economics to discuss the European case. A buy or a sell relative to expectations?
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#5 - 4 reasons why the recession never arrived - Guest: Dario Perkins Jul 16, 2023

Andreas Steno and Emil Moller of Steno Research host Dario Perkins of TS Lombard for a discussion the recession that never arrived.
Steno Research had a tremendous trading week after acing the US Inflation Report. What is ahead for inflation after this dovish report and will central banks pause in a coordinated fashion from August and onwards?
Remember that you can use the exclusive code “Macro30” to get 30% off your subscription at www.stenoresearch.com - live portfolio, quant tools and full global Macro coverage and much more.

#3 - Why is everyone so obsessed with the BRICS currency? Guest: Jacob L. Shapiro Jul 09, 2023

What's actually going on in Russia? Is the US taking a softer stance towards China with visits from both Blinken and Yellen? And what's going on with the suggested gold-based BRICS currency? We take a deep-dive into current geopolitics with analyst and director Jacob L. Shapiro of Cognitive Investments.
Read our continued geopolitical coverage as well as our 15-20 weekly macro articles at Stenoresearch.com. Sign up for a 14 day free trial and use the promo code 'macro30' for 30% off your first purchase.
Hosts: Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold
Guest: Jacob L. Shapiro (@JacobShapiro)

The weird resilience of the EUR - Guest: Jens Nordvig Jul 02, 2023

The EUR and European equities have proven surprisingly resilient to a string of weak data from Europe. Why is the EUR trade not rolling over? Andreas Steno hosts fellow Dane Jens Nordvig for a discussion on the Euro area.
Remember that you can get 30% off your subscription at www.stenoresearch.com with the discount code “Macro30”

Housing rebounds - time to call off the recession? Guest: Warren Pies Jun 25, 2023

Housing is rebounding and all the sudden the central bank hawks are back on parade. Is it time to call off the recession or will the downside risk increase due to central banks misreading the situation? Andreas Steno and Emil Moller of Steno Research hosts Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research for a discussion on housing and how to trade it.
Read more content from Andreas and Emil on Stenoresearch.com. We provide you with +70 macro insights each month as well as access to our live portfolio and macro datahub. Sign up now for a 14 day free trial and get 30% off your first payment with the code 'macro30'.
Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Emil Møller
Guest: Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research

3 reasons why EUR liquidity is a MUST watch over summer Jun 18, 2023

Welcome to the inaugural episode of Macro Sunday. Each and every Sunday, former Global Chief Strategist of Nordea Bank, Andreas Steno, invites colleagues and friends of Steno Research to share their views on the world of macro and geopolitics with loads of actionable content.
We will maintain FULL independence without capital interests in having specific views and provide 100% transparency around how we trade and view the world
The podcast will be the most entertaining and yet serious podcast in the Macro Space and as you will notice our trade ideas will be “SOMETIMES MAYBE GOOD, SOMETIMES MAYBE SHIT” (Listen to understand the context)
Find out more about Steno Research with the 30% discount code “macro30” at www.stenoresearch.com/subscribe

Welcome to Macro Sunday! Jun 17, 2023

Welcome to our new podcast - Macro Sunday. Each and every Sunday, former Global Chief Strategist of Nordea Bank, Andreas Steno, invites colleagues and friends of Steno Research to share their views on the world of macro and geopolitics with loads of actionable content.
We will maintain FULL independence without capital interests in having specific views and provide 100% transparency around how we trade and view the world
The podcast will be the most entertaining and yet serious podcast in the Macro Space and as you will notice our trade ideas will be “SOMETIMES MAYBE GOOD, SOMETIMES MAYBE SHIT” (Listen to understand the context)
Find out more about Steno Research with the 30% discount code “macro30” at www.stenoresearch.com/subscribe

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