Interpreting India

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Ajay Shah on Union Budget 2024: Fiscal Policy and Economic Challenges Aug 01, 2024

Show notes

The episode provides an in-depth analysis of the structural challenges that led to the slowdown in private investment in India from 2011, highlighting the impact of policy uncertainty, weak rule of law, and central planning on business confidence. Ajay Shah advocates for broader policy reforms that enhance the institutional environment, making it more conducive to private sector participation in the economy.

He also discusses the strategic importance of fiscal discipline in the context of India's economic challenges. He emphasizes the need for a prudent approach to deficit management, arguing that a flexible fiscal policy, which adapts to economic cycles, is more suitable for India than rigid deficit targets. The discussion also explores the role of infrastructure investments, questioning whether the current government-led infrastructure push effectively addresses the deeper issues of private sector investment and economic growth.

Additionally, Shah touches upon the ongoing debate around tax policy, particularly the potential overhaul of India's direct tax code and the implications of capital gains taxation. He underscores the importance of aligning tax policy with the broader goal of promoting capital formation and economic growth in India.

How can India balance fiscal discipline with the need for economic growth? What are the underlying reasons for the private sector's reluctance to invest in India? How can tax policy reforms contribute to India's economic objectives?

Additional Readings

In Service of the Republic: The Art and Science of Economic Policy by Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah

Foreign Investors Under Stress: Evidence from India by Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah, and Nirvikar Singh

Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade by Paul Krugman

The Case for Trade Barriers Against Chinese Imports by Ila Patnaik and Ajay Shah

The State of the Economy by Ajay Shah

Government Programs Have a Limited Impact on Employment by Ajay Shah

Where Has All the Infrastructure Gone? | Episode 55 | Everything is Everything

Strategic Thinking on Fiscal Policy by Ajay Shah

Where Has All the Infrastructure Gone? | Episode 55 | Everything is Everything

Episode Contributors:

Ajay Shah is a senior research fellow and co-founder of XKDR Forum. He has held positions at the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research (IGIDR), the Department of Economic Affairs at the Ministry of Finance, and the National Institute for Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP). His research lies at the intersection of economics, law, and public administration.

Suyash Rai is a deputy director and fellow at Carnegie India. His research focuses on the political economy of economic reforms, and the performance of public institutions in India. His current research looks at the financial sector, the fiscal system, and the infrastructure sector.

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

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Quentin Verspieren on a Zero Debris Approach in Space Exploration Jul 11, 2024

Show notes

Space sustainability has become a critical issue with the increasing presence of space debris. In this episode, Quentin Verspieren provides insights into the ESA’s zero-debris approach and the collaborative efforts needed to achieve it. The conversation focuses on the importance of developing advanced technologies for debris mitigation and remediation and how private companies can drive innovation to contribute to space sustainability. Verspieren also discusses the role of global partnerships in promoting a zero-debris approach and how the Zero-Debris Charter complements international space law norms.

Additionally, the conversation addresses the financial and technological challenges faced by emerging spacefaring countries in adopting sustainable space practices. Verspieren emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach involving all stakeholders, including governments, private companies, and international organizations, to ensure space remains a viable environment for future generations.

Episode Contributors

Quentin Verspieren is the Space Safety Programme and Protect Accelerator Coordinator at the Directorate of Operations, European Space Agency. In this role, he leads the development of ambitious European initiatives on debris mitigation and remediation, and space weather services. Verspieren is a visiting assistant professor at the Science, Technology, and Innovation Governance (STIG) Program, University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Public Policy. He has two master’s degrees in aerospace engineering from ISAE-SUPAERO and The University of Tokyo and a Ph.D. in public policy.

Tejas Bharadwaj is a research analyst with the Technology and Society Program at Carnegie India. He focuses on space law and policies and works on areas related to applications of artificial intelligence and autonomy in the military domain and U.S.-India export controls. Tejas is also part of the group that convened Carnegie India’s annual flagship event, the Global Technology Summit, co-organized with the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India.

Suggested Readings

The Zero Debris Charter, European Space Agency

Zero Debris Charter Aims to Boost International Cooperation on Cleaning up Earth’s Space Junk Problem, Space.com

Guidelines for the Long-Term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, UNCOPUOS

India’s Intent on Debris-Free Space Missions, ISRO

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Raj Shukla on Modernizing India’s Armed Forces and Defense Industry Jun 20, 2024

Show notes

India's quest for military modernization has been marked by significant reforms in recent years. In this episode, Raj Shukla provides insights into the progress and challenges faced in this transformation. He highlights the importance of technological integration, jointness, and civil-military fusion in strengthening India's deterrence.

The conversation delves into the need for a comprehensive national security makeover, emphasizing reforms like integrated theater commands, and a cultural transformation in civil-military relations. Shukla also discusses the impact of geopolitical shifts, particularly the rise of China, on India's strategic imperatives.

How have reforms fared over the past ten years? What is the way forward for defense industry, tri-service jointness, and civil-military relations? Does India’s nuclear posture need a rethink? Does it need to raise new forces in the emerging domains of space and cyber?

Episode Contributors

Raj Shukla is a member of the Union Public Service Commission, Government of India, and a former general officer commanding in chief of the Indian Army's Army Training Command (ARTRAC). With over four decades of distinguished service, he has a deep interest in strategic military affairs and is a distinguished fellow at the Center for Land Warfare Studies.

Yahoo: rajshukla35@yahoo.com
YouTube: @LtGenRajShukla
Instagram: @ltgenrajshukla
Twitter: @Gen_Rajshukla
Facebook: @Raj Shukla

Saheb Singh Chadha is a research analyst in the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India. His research focuses on China’s foreign and security policies, India-China relations, and India’s military modernization. He is broadly interested in the geopolitics of South Asia and the Indo-Pacific. He is also a researcher on a project examining the nature and dynamics of cross-border violence and its impact on civilian communities.

Twitter: @SahebSChadha

Additional Readings

The Absent Dialogue: Politicians, Bureaucrats, and the Military in India by Anit Mukherjee

Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacbosen

From Surprise to Reckoning: The Kargil Review Committee Report

What is Shekatkar Report, Defence Ministry’s First Order of Business After Lockdown by Snehesh Alex Phillip

Naresh Chandra Task Force’s Report on National Security: An Appraisal by Nitin Gokhale

MOMENTOUS CHANGES: Defence Reforms, Military Transformation, and India’s New Strategic Posture by Anit Mukherjee, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Nishant Rajeev

Striking Asymmetries: Nuclear Transitions in Southern Asia by Ashley J. Tellis

The Real Motives for China’s Nuclear Expansion by Tong Zhao

What Are China’s Nuclear Weapons For? By Ashley J. Tellis; Tong Zhao

Election Rhetoric, Nuclear Weapons and Pakistan — the Need to Expand Debate by C Raja Mohan

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

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Vidyadhar Phatak on Urban Planning Challenges and Solutions in India Jun 06, 2024

Show notes

India's rapid urban growth has brought to light numerous challenges, including unmanageable expansion, inadequate housing, and air pollution. Vidyadhar Phatak discusses how historical planning models and regulatory frameworks have contributed to these issues and offers insights into potential solutions. The conversation highlights the importance of adapting urban planning to market realities, enhancing regulatory frameworks, and improving planning education to better address the needs of Indian cities.

In Planning for India's Urbanization (2024), Phatak provides a comprehensive analysis of urban development in India, focusing on the links between economic growth and urbanization, the importance of land use, housing affordability, and metropolitan governance. The episode emphasizes the need for localized and context-specific planning to foster sustainable urban development.

How can historical planning models be reformed to meet the needs of modern Indian cities? What are the advantages and disadvantages of different land assembly methods? How can redevelopment be facilitated in already built-up areas? What are the challenges and opportunities in planning education and the profession?

Episode Contributors

Vidyadhar Phatak is a renowned urban planner with over forty years of professional experience. He has extensively researched housing affordability, public land use, and urban planning reforms. Phatak retired as the Principal Chief of the Town and Country Planning Division of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority in 2004. He has served on the Planning Commission Task Force on Urban Development and the National Commission on Urbanization. His book, Planning for India's Urbanization, offers a collection of essays on urban development based on his observations of Mumbai and Maharashtra, with broader applicability to other Indian cities.

Anirudh Burman is an associate research director and fellow at Carnegie India. He works on key issues relating to public institutions, public administration, the administrative and regulatory state, and state capacity. He has also worked extensively on financial regulation and regulatory governance. Burman brings a nuanced perspective to urban planning and development discussions, drawing on his extensive knowledge and research experience.

Additional Readings

Planning for India's Urbanization by Vidyadhar Pathak

Scaling Heights: Affordability Implications of Zoning Deregulation in India by Geetika Nagpal and Salil Gandhi

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Madhumita Murgia on Addressing Unintended Harms of AI May 23, 2024

Show notes

In the past two years, artificial intelligence (AI) has rapidly evolved from a burgeoning technology to a transformative force, reshaping industries and everyday life. Enthralled by AI's promises and potential, the tech world and society at large have surged ahead, often without pausing to consider the technology's broader implications. In her book, Code Dependent: Living in the Shadows of AI, Madhumita Murgia talks about the crucial gap in the discourse—the unintended consequences of AI. As AI redefines what it means to be human, it poses profound questions about its impact on individuals, families, societies, and cultures worldwide. A key concern is the concentration of power within a few large tech companies that control extensive data, capital, and infrastructure. The discussion extends to the impact of AI on labor, emphasizing the importance of ethical labor practices and fair wages for data workers, the challenges of biases in AI systems, and the inclusion of diverse voices in AI development to mitigate potential harms and ensure equitable advancements in technology.

What are the unintended consequences of AI on global societies and cultures? Will AI deepen existing inequalities or serve as a tool for greater equity? Will it centralize power among a few or democratize access to resources and opportunities? How does the concentration of AI power affect global politics and economics?

In this episode of Interpreting India, Madhumita Murgia joins Anirudh Suri to answer these pressing questions and discuss the ever-evolving nature of AI and its implications.

Madhumita Murgiais the AI editor of the Financial Times, where she writes on data and emerging technologies. She was previously tech editor at The Daily Telegraph and associate editor of Wired UK. Her latest book, Code Dependent: Living in the Shadows of AI, was shortlisted for the 2024 Women's Prize for Non-Fiction.

Anirudh Suri is a nonresident scholar with Carnegie India. His interests lie at the intersection of technology and geopolitics, climate, and strategic affairs. He is currently exploring how India is carving and cementing its role in the global tech ecosystem and the role climate technology can play in addressing the global climate challenge. Suri is the author of The Great Tech Game: Shaping Geopolitics and the Destinies of Nations and has also written extensively on foreign policy, geopolitics, cybersecurity, climate, technology, and entrepreneurship.

Additional Readings

Code Dependent: Living in the Shadows of AIby Madhumita Murgia

The Great Tech Game: Shaping Geopolitics and the Destinies of Nations by Anirudh Suri

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Karl Mehta on India's Tech-Driven Future May 09, 2024

Show notes

Karl Mehta highlights the critical role of trustworthy tech supply chains and the necessity for international collaboration among partner nations. Mehta examines the potential of India’s national AI mission and the growing space tech ecosystem, including opportunities for lower-cost payload launches and downstream activities. This episode provides an overview of the strategic integration of advanced technologies in India’s growth and development framework. Karl Mehta explains the critical role of patient capital in promoting deep tech innovations and discusses the Indian government's recent initiatives to stimulate technological advancements through policies focused on deep tech and domestic manufacturing.
What is the significance of patient capital in the development of deep technology? How do current Indian government policies support the innovation ecosystem, particularly in deep tech? In what ways can trustworthy tech supply chains bolster India's position in the global tech landscape?

Episode contributors

Karl Mehtais a serial entrepreneur, author, investor, engineer, and civil servant with over thirty years of experience in founding, building, and funding high-tech companies in the United States and international markets. Prior to leading the Quad Investors Network, Karl was the founder and CEO of an artificial intelligence-powered knowledge cloud platform EdCast Inc., which was backed by Stanford University and acquired by Cornerstone Inc. He was also a former venture partner at Menlo Ventures, a leading Silicon Valley firm.

Karl is also the founder of several non-profit organizations, including Code For India, and the author of Financial Inclusion at the Bottom of the Pyramid. His new book, AI for Digital Public Infrastructure, is slated to be released in Fall 2023.

Konark Bhandari is a fellow with Carnegie India. He is a lawyer who has researched certain areas in the digital economy, focusing primarily on approaches to antitrust regulation of companies in the digital realm. He had earlier worked at India’s antitrust regulator, the Competition Commission of India (CCI), where he worked closely with senior officials on a variety of matters. He is also an avid follower of the regulation of the space technology ecosystem and is keen to contribute to that discipline.

Additional readings:

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

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Poornima Dore on the Dynamics of India’s Regional Economies Apr 25, 2024

Show notes

India, a continent-sized country, exhibits profound regional economic disparities, with some regions having economic outputs comparable to upper-middle-income countries, while others resemble the impoverished regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Dore discusses how these disparities affect development and the importance of focusing on regional nuances to foster equitable growth across India. The book provides a deep dive into these issues, offering lessons and insights on leveraging regional strengths and addressing challenges through targeted development strategies. The episode highlights the need for precise regional analysis and development policies that consider the unique economic landscapes of India’s diverse regions.

What is more conducive to the economic development of a nation—specialisation or diversification? What is the role of data in harnessing regional potential effectively? How can India implement lessons from global economic governance to improve its regional development strategies?

Episode Contributors

Poornima Dore is a practicing economist, driving impact through finance, innovation and digital transformation. She previously served as director of analytics, insights and impact at Tata Trusts and is a highly sought-after advisor for leaders across diverse sectors. With a management degree from Xavier School of Management and a PhD in Economics from the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, she has, over the years, driven large programs at the intersection of business, philanthropy, academia and government, activated private sector investments in data-driven governance, digital public goods, regional growth, urbanization, and migration, and designed special institutional programs on impact and SME financing. She serves on the board of select institutions as well as ministerial committees and has been recognized as one of the top 100 Analytics Leaders in South Asia.

Suggested Readings:

Regional Economic Diversity: Lessons from an Emergent India, by Poornima Dore and Krishnan Narayanan

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Steven Freeland on the Governance of Space Resource Activities Apr 11, 2024

Show notes

In the realm of space exploration, there's a growing focus on extracting resources from celestial bodies like the Moon and asteroids. This calls for a strong governance framework to ensure responsible and sustainable practices. International laws such as the Outer Space Treaty and the Moon Agreement provide the foundation, while initiatives like the Artemis Accords support commercial ventures. The UN's COPUOS Working Group is dedicated to addressing the legal and technical aspects of space resource activities, aiming to develop guidelines for their responsible use. Multilateralism is crucial for consensus among nations, with countries like China, Russia, and India actively participating. India, as a respected spacefaring nation, has a pivotal role to play, leveraging its expertise to shape global discussions on space resource governance.

However, it is important to ensure that such activities are carried out per obligations under international law. For example, Article II of the Outer Space Treaty prohibits the appropriation of outer space including celestial bodies. There are also concerns that if space resource activities are not governed properly, conflicts may arise in outer space and back on Earth. To facilitate an inclusive and multi-stakeholder dialogue on this issue, the UN COPUOS established the Working Group on Legal Aspects of Space Resource Activities.

How will this multilateral initiative function? What promises does this initiative hold in shaping the norms and future of space resource activities? And what is India’s possible role in this initiative?

Episode Contributors

Steven Freeland is an emeritus professor at Western Sydney University and a former dean, specializing in international law. He represents Australia at UN COPUOS meetings and is a member of the Australian Space Agency Advisory Board. With extensive experience as a commercial lawyer and investment banker, Freeland has advised on space law and policy internationally and has authored numerous publications on international law. | https://www.weforum.org/people/steven-freeland/
Tejas Bharadwaj is a research analyst at Carnegie India, focusing on space law and AI applications in the military. He is involved with Carnegie India's Global Technology Summit and is a prospective member of the International Institute of Space Law. Bharadwaj has worked on global initiatives addressing light pollution from satellites and contributes to various international space law groups. | https://carnegieindia.org/experts/2199

Introduction - 00:00
Relevance of International Law - 11:21
The Working Group on Space Resource Activities - 26:26
The Need for Governance in Space Resource Activities - 34:09
The Importance of Multilateralism in Space Resource Governance - 45:58
Challenges of Reaching Consensus in Space Resource Governance - 57:40
Suggested Readings

Working Group on Legal Aspects of Space Resource Activities, UNOOSA
The Future of Geography: How Power and Politics in Space Will Change Our World by Tim Marshall
Space Resource Activities and the Evolution of International Space Law by Melissa De Zwart, Stacey Henderson and Michelle Neumann
International Conference on Space Resources

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Ajay Kumar on Defense Innovation in India Mar 14, 2024

Show notes

The recent war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Middle East have provided valuable lessons when it comes to the nature of future military modernisation and defense innovation. While traditional warfare remains relevant, we are seeing a shift towards multi-domain operations that are more kinetic and are increasingly utilizing autonomous weapons.

As India seeks to boost its defence exports, its domestic industry will have a role to play. Several factors have played a role in the recent spike in defence exports—regulatory initiatives, enhanced capability of the private sector, and the desire among other countries to diversify away from their traditional defence partners and look at India instead. Additionally, the INDUS-X initiative between India and the U.S. has also been noted as a welcome mechanism to encourage further defence cooperation in other emerging technologies such as quantum computing, space, cyber-security, and deep-sea technology.

What are the potential opportunities that international collaborations present? Will India's domestic industry be able to meet the armed forces' requirements?

In this episode of Interpreting India, Ajay Kumar and Konark Bhandari talk about the current status of defence innovation in India and the emerging trends in this space.

Episode Contributors

Ajay Kumar is a nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie India. He served as the defense secretary of India between August 2019 and October 2022 and is the longest serving secretary in the Ministry of Defence, where he also served as secretary in the Department of Defence Production. As defense secretary, Ajay Kumar was the key architect for several major transformations, including the restructuring of higher defense management in the country and formation of the chief of defense staff in the Indian Armed Forces; the launch of the Agniveer scheme—a historic reform in recruitment, training, and retention of personnel in the Armed Forces.

Additional Readings

INDUS-X: Charting the Way Ahead for India-U.S. Defense Industrial Cooperation, by Konark Bhandari.

Can a Defense Innovation Bridge Elevate India-U.S. Defense Cooperation? by Konark Bhandari.

Sameer Lalwani on India-U.S. Defense-Industrial Cooperation.

U.S.-India Defense Innovation Collaboration: Building on a Promising Start by Konark Bhandari.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

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Jabin Jacob on China’s Increased Presence in South Asia Feb 29, 2024

Show notes

South Asia is a region of remarkable diversity, encompassing countries such as Sri Lanka, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, and Myanmar. Typically, India has been considered the power most capable of exercising its influence in the region. Yet, in recent years, there has been another power that has laid claim to South Asia as part of its periphery and has sought to expand its influence in the region. For the past decade and a half, China has made deeper inroads into South Asia, not only offering capital and infrastructure, but also deepening political ties and people-to-people relations.

When did we begin seeing China’s interest in the region? How does China interact differently with South Asia compared to other powers like the United States? How does China’s slowing economy affect its economic engagement in the region?

In this episode of Interpreting India, Jabin Jacob joins Saheb Singh Chadha to answer these pressing questions and discuss recent developments in South Asia.

Episode Contributors

Jabin Thomas Jacob is associate professor at the Department of International Relations and Governance Studies at the Shiv Nadar Institute of Eminence, a nonresident fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress, and adjunct research fellow at the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi. Jacob holds a PhD in Chinese Studies from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi and has spent time as a researcher in Taiwan, France, and Singapore. His research interests include Chinese domestic politics, China-South Asia relations, Sino-Indian border areas, Indian and Chinese worldviews, and center-province relations in China.

Additional Readings

How China Engages South Asia: Themes, Partners and Tools, edited by Constantino Xavier and Jabin Jacob

G20 in Delhi, US Ties, Global South Leadership: Decoding Beijing Worldview Through Chinese Press by Jabin Jacob

A Fresh Look at India’s Neighborhood First Policy, by Constantino Xavier and Milan Vaishnav

China’s Influence in South Asia: Vulnerabilities and Resilience in Four Countries by Deep Pal

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

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