In Pursuit of Development

Centre for Global Sustainability, University of Oslo

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The impact of democracy on economic growth — Carl Henrik Knutsen Nov 04, 2020

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Some of the most interesting debates on development include the role of democracy in promoting economic growth and then distributing the benefits of growth to achieve poverty reduction. Indeed, some of the questions that have attracted considerably scholarly attention in recent decades include the following: Are certain regimes better able and equipped than others to achieve economic growth? Does democracy work for the poor?

Despite considerable research on the topic, the results of the democracy-growth relationship are not always very clear. But there does appear to be stronger linkages between democracy and certain types of development outcomes, including literacy and infant mortality.

Guest: Carl Henrik Knutsen is a professor of political science at the University of Oslo. He has for many years studied the democracy-growth linkage and has published extensively on this subject. In a recent piece called the “Business case for democracy”, he argues that democracy works as a safety-net for avoiding the worst possible economic outcomes. And in relation to economic growth, he argues that autocracies have more variation — over countries and across time.

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Global inequality and the future of capitalism — Branko Milanovic Oct 28, 2020

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Income inequality has received considerable attention in recent years. Very few would have predicted that a very thick academic book on wealth and income inequality in Europe and the United States since the 18th century would go on to become an international bestseller. I am of course referring to Capital in the Twenty-First Century– the book published by the French economist Thomas Piketty in 2013.

Income inequality was rising in many countries before the pandemic, and recent reports suggest that the Covid crisis is widening inequalities globally. Indeed, the global economy, according to the International Monetary Fund, is expected to contract 4.4 percent cent in 2020. This is bad news for the world’s poor, whose numbers are expected to sharply increase. But Covid has also made the world’s richest even richer. A recent analysis by UBS concludes that the world’s billionaires have grown wealthier in 2020 compared with 2019. And this is not just in the United States or Germany but also in Brazil and China. Thus, the pandemic will most likely deepen inequalities of various kinds.

To discuss how global income inequality looks like today, I am joined by Branko Milanovic, one of the world’s most well-known scholars on inequality. He is a visiting presidential professor at The Graduate Center at the City University of New York, and a senior scholar at the University’s Stone Center on Socio-economic Inequality.

Professor Milanovic has published extensively on income inequality, in individual countries and globally, including in preindustrial societies. For almost two decades, he served as the lead economist in the World Bank’s Research Department.

We discussed income inequality within specific countries and whether the gains of the emerging global middle class in Asia are responsible for the losses of the lower middle class of the rich world. We also spoke about Branko’s latest book, Capitalism Alone: The Future of the System That Rules the World (2019), in which he argues that for the first time in human history, the globe is dominated by one economic system – capitalism. So, what are the prospects for a fairer world now that capitalism is the only game in town?

Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization (2016)
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China-Africa relations — Eric Olander Oct 21, 2020

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This show has been regularly discussing Beijing’s support for sustainable development initiatives, its provision of aid, technical expertise and finance to developing counties under the South-South Cooperation umbrella, and the numerous infrastructure projects that China is undertaking in Europe, Africa, Latin America and Asia as part of the Belt and Road Initiative.

A common goal in several of the episodes in this season of the podcast has been to nuance the understanding of China’s recent activities, better understand its motives and reflect on its future strategies and actions. Much of the recent focus in Western media reports on China has focused on the damage that Covid has done to Beijing’s reputation abroad. There have also been growing concerns on how Beijing will react to certain countries defaulting on the huge loans that it has provided for infrastructure construction. But not everyone shares such concerns. And indeed there are numerous voices that have highlighted Beijing’s support for multilateral institutions and its ability to finance and undertake major development projects that the West has long neglected.

Guest: Eric Olanderisthe co-founder of the China Africa project, an independent multimedia organization that explores China’s engagement with Africa. He is a journalist with over three decades of experience reporting, producing and managing newsrooms for some of the world’s leading media organizations including CNN, and the BBC World Service. Eric speaks fluent Mandarin Chinese and has a Master’s degree in International Public Affairs with a focus on Chinese foreign policy from the University of Hong Kong. He also hosts a very popular weekly China in Africa podcast.

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Food insecurity and the Nobel Peace Prize 2020 — Ida Rudolfsen Oct 17, 2020

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The Nobel Peace Prize this year was awarded to the World Food Program (WFP). In its announcement, the Norwegian Nobel committee emphasized that “providing assistance to increase food security not only prevents hunger, but can also help to improve prospects for stability and peace”.

The WPF indeed appears to be a worthy winner of this prestigious award. It is the world’s largest humanitarian agency, and currently assists over 100 million people in 88 countries. It is also the frontline UN agency responding to emergencies caused by conflict, climate shocks, pandemics and other disasters. And currently it is involved in addressing ongoing emergencies in 20 countries or regions, the majority of these emergencies have been fuelled by conflict. It has also in recent months warned the international community that acute hunger in the 88 countries in which it operates could reach 270 million people by the end of the year — an 82 percent increase on 2019.

For many years, world hunger was on the decline. More food was being produced around the world and access was gradually improving. But since 2014, the number of undernourished people or people facing chronic food deprivation, has been on the rise.

Latest estimates from the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the UN suggest that 9.7 percent of the world population (or slightly less than 750 million people) was exposed to severe levels of food insecurity in 2019. Indeed, in all regions of the world except Northern America and Europe, the prevalence of severe food insecurity has increased from 2014 to 2019. But even this is only a part of the story, because an additional 16 percent of the world population, or more than 1.25 billion people, experience food insecurity at moderate levels. And this group, which is moderately food insecure, does not have regular access to nutritious and sufficient food, even if they are not necessarily suffering from hunger.

Some countries, such as Yemen, are on the edge of famine and Covid is making hunger even more acute in large parts of the world. So, the scale of the problem of world hunger is enormous, which makes this year’s Nobel Peace Prize even more relevant and timely.

According to several studies, conflict is an important driver of severe food crisis and famines, and undernutrition is particularly a major problem in situations of prolonged conflicts and in countries and regions with weak institutional capacity.

Guest: Ida Rudolfsen is a PhD student at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University. She is also affiliated with the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO).

Resources:

Covid-19, food access, and social upheaval (July 2020)
The World Food Program won the Nobel Peace Prize. Does food aid boost peace? (Monkey Cage blog, Washington Post, October 2020)
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Why democracy will prevail in the contest against authoritarian alternatives — Larry Diamond Oct 14, 2020

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In his recent book – ll Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency (Penguin 2019) – Larry Diamond analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history”. The book outlines an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home in the US as well as abroad.

Larry Diamond is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University. He is also a professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford.

Professor Diamond has made numerous contributions to topics such as democratic development and regime change; U.S. foreign policy affecting democracy abroad; comparative trends in the quality and stability of democracy in developing countries and post-communist states; and public opinion in new democracies.

In addition to serving as advisor to numerous governmental and international organizations throughout his glittering career, Prof. Diamond is also the founding co-editor of the hugely influential Journal of Democracy .

"Protecting American Democracy: A Conversation with Larry Diamond" (Stanford Daily, August 2020)
"Democratic Regression in Comparative Perspective", open access journal article (June 2020)
"Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model" (Comparative Politics, Dankwart Rustow, 1970)
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What the West does not understand about China — Liu Baocheng Oct 10, 2020

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Much of the discourse in the Western media in recent months has highlighted the rising tensions between the United States and China and the growing assertiveness of Chinese diplomats on social media and in other international forums, where they have passionately defended their country’s response to the Covid outbreak.

There has also been a growing interest in trying to decode how Beijing is reconfiguring its aid and investment policies and how and to what extent it will offer debt relief to developing countries. There are numerous media reports questioning the real motives behind Beijing’s attempts to further strengthen diplomatic ties with countries in all corners of the world and push the narrative that as the good brother, friend and partner, China is concerned with upholding the principle of building itself up while also supporting other countries at the same time.

And then there is all of this talk about a potential Covid vaccine, which when developed by the Chinese, could potentially be made available for free or at a subsidized price to countries that Beijing considers its friends.

But the perspectives of Chinese scholars and commentators on these matters do not receive the kind of attention they deserve.

Liu Baocheng is a professor at the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) and Director of the University’s Center for International Business Ethics. I have collaborated with Prof. Liu for the past few years on a project that explored corporate strategies to promote sustainable development in China. Prof. Liu frequently appears as a news commentator on CCTV International.

Twitter: @danbanik @GlobalDevPod

Website: https://in-pursuit-of-development.simplecast.com/

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Centre for Global Sustainability, University of Oslo

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China’s Belt and Road Initiative and infrastructure development in Africa — Gyude Moore Oct 07, 2020

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A couple of months ago, Liberia’s former minister of public works, Gyude Moore argued in a popular Tweet that Western critiques of Beijing’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will ring hollow in the absence of viable and state-led alternatives from the West. He claimed that the West can easily match, if not exceed China's BRI if it wanted to. But he also wondered whether the West wants to do this. He remains unconvinced because he thinks the West is satisfied with "virtue signalling when it comes to Africa’s prosperity". And so he went on to argue that it should not come as a surprise when African governments do their best to avoid being drawn into any rivalry between the United States and China and prefer to rather maintain a broad coalition of partners. But most importantly, he pointed out, “If China has built more infrastructure in Africa in two decades than the West has in centuries, China is also our friend".

In addition to previously serving as Liberia’s minister of public works (2014-2018) with oversight over the construction and maintenance of public infrastructure, Gyude Moore has also been the deputy chief of staff to former Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. He is currently a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, DC.

Resources:

"Africa Needs a Stronger Europe, Europe Needs a Stronger Africa" (Sept. 2020)
"How Can We Prepare for Coronavirus? Learn from Liberia’s Experience with Ebola" (March 2020)
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Dam diplomacy and water sharing agreements in the Nile basin — Ashok Swain Sep 30, 2020

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The growing tensions between the Nile Basin countries – Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan – over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has made news headlines in recent months.

Egypt and Ethiopia have for many years been at loggerheads over Ethiopia’s plan to dam the Nile River and this conflict has resulted in steadily deteriorating relations between some of Africa’s biggest countries. Numerous attempts to negotiate a deal have failed and the livelihoods of millions of people who depend on the smooth flow of the Nile are at stake.

In 2011, Ethiopia began construction of the GERD, a $4.6 billion hydroelectric project, on the headwaters of the Blue Nile, near the border between Ethiopia and Sudan. For Ethiopia, the dam offers an opportunity to finally take advantage of the world’s longest river in stimulating economic growth and generate much-needed electricity for itself as well as for its neighbours.

But the construction of this dam has resulted in a highly polarized discourse.

Some have argued that GERD, in addition to its obvious benefits for Ethiopia, could even foster new and productive forms of regional cooperation. But others worry over Ethiopia’s growing muscle and its motives, and its commitment to respect water-sharing agreements at the cost of other countries that depend on the Nile.

In addition to the Nile river basin conflict, we also discuss in this episode the longstanding water sharing agreements and disputes between India and Bangladesh and the impact of India’s construction of the Farakka Barrage on the Ganges river in the 1970s. Are there certain lessons from this dispute that could explain the current dispute in the Nile basin?

Guest: Ashok Swain is a professor of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, Sweden. He is also the UNESCO Chair of International Water Cooperation and the Director of Uppsala University’s Research School of International Water Cooperation.

Resources:

"How the Grand Renaissance Dam might spark basin-wide water cooperation" (The Conversation, July 2020)
"Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Catalyst for basin-wide water cooperation?" (The Africa Report, August 2020)
The Egyptian President's speech at the UN General Assembly (Sept. 2020)
"Ethiopia tells UN 'no intention' of using dam to harm Egypt, Sudan" (Middle East Monitor, September 2020)
"To India’s chagrin, Bangladesh turns to China to transform Teesta river" (TheThirdPole.net, September 2020)
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Legislative development in Africa — Ken Ochieng' Opalo Sep 23, 2020

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Studying the role of institutions and their evolution often helps us better understand political and economic development in countries all over the world. And one such key institution is the legislature, which plays a critical role in democratic consolidation by providing a stable system of horizontal accountability. Legislatures craft legislation, pass laws, exercise oversight of the executive branch and thereby provide the institutional mechanism which allows societies to perform representative governance on a daily basis. Individual legislators articulate competing interests and try to influence the policymaking process. They also perform an important function – that of constituency service, i.e. they may regularly visit their constituencies and meet their constituents and address local needs and may even be involved in providing various types of public goods to their constituents through development projects.

The extent of legislative capacity and power, of course, varies greatly from country to country. In some countries, the legislature remains relatively weak despite multiparty politics, regular elections and even when ruling parties lose elections. But in other countries, the legislature has functioned effectively as a check on the executive branch of government as well as provided important contributions to the policymaking and policy implementation processes.

But legislatures and legislative capacity in developing countries have not received the kind of scholarly attention that they deserve. This is indeed surprising.

In his brilliant book, Legislative Development in Africa: Politics and Postcolonial Legacies, published in 2019 by Cambridge University Press, Ken explores how the adaptation of inherited colonial legislative institutional forms and practices continue to structure and influence contemporary politics and policy outcomes in Africa. He contrasts the records of legislative performance and discusses why the legislatures in some emerging democracies have enhanced their capacity and power while those in others have not. Ken finds that the introduction of competitive multiparty electoral institutions strengthened the Kenyan legislature but not the Zambian one. He also examines how and under what conditions democratic legislatures emerge in countries that have had strong autocratic foundations. Ken’s book thus makes a strong case for strengthening legislatures in emerging democracies. He argues that attempts to strengthen legislatures in emerging democracies should not just be limited to technical assistance and organizational capacity building but also include the political empowerment of legislators.

Ken Ochieng’ Opalois an Assistant Professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His research interests include legislative politics, subnational administration and local government, electoral politics, and the political economy of development in Africa. Ken’s current research projects include studies of the politics of service provision and accountability under devolved government in Kenya, education sector reforms in Tanzania, inter-state relations in Africa, and executive-legislative relations in Kenya. His works have been published in the British Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Democracy, the Journal of Eastern African Studies, and Governance. He is a member of EGAP (Evidence in Governance and Politics), gui2de (Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation) and a non-resident fellow at Brookings Institution and the Center for Global Development. His research has been funded by the Luminate Group, the Susan Ford Dorsey Fellowship, and the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID). Ken earned his BA from Yale University and PhD from Stanford University.

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