Grand Tamasha

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Notes from the Campaign Trail and Rukmini S. on Journalism and the 2019 Elections May 15, 2019

Show notes

First, James Crabtree of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and author of the best-selling book, The Billionaire Raj: A Journey Through India’s New Gilded Age, joins Milan to talk about his recent campaign trip to Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. The two discuss the pitched battle in UP, the impact of Priyanka Gandhi, and the BJP’s rise in West Bengal. Milan and James also discuss the menace of stray cattle in Uttar Pradesh and its impact on rural voters.

Then, Milan speaks with freelance data journalist and author of the Scroll.in series, *How India Votes*, Rukmini S. Rukmini shares her disappointment with the state of election reporting in India and the struggle to generate a theory of the Indian voter. Milan and Rukmini also talk about gender and caste—two important themes of the 2019 election that could shape the final outcome. The two conclude with a discussion of the challenges the BJP faces in replicating its landmark 2014 performance.

The Economist on Modi and Rahul Verma on Ideology in Indian Politics May 08, 2019

Show notes

First, Max Rodenbeck and Alex Travelli of the Economist South Asia bureau join Milan to discuss the newspaper’s recent editorial arguing that while BJP Prime Minister Narendra Modi “has been neither as good for India as his cheerleaders foretold, nor as bad as his critics…imagined,” the risks associated with a Modi-led BJP still outweigh the rewards. The three discuss the Economist’s editorial line, the nature of the 2019 campaign, and what’s at stake for India. Alex and Max also dispel the notion that coalition government is bad for governance in India.

Then, Milan speaks with Rahul Verma of the University of California-Berkeley and the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi. Rahul is the co-author, with Pradeep Chhibber, of a fascinating new book on Indian politics, Ideology and Identity: The Changing Party Systems of India. Rahul’s new book busts the myth that Indian politics is non-ideological simply because it does not adhere to the traditional left-right spectrum that characterizes Western politics. Milan and Rahul discuss how status politics and the role of the state in social life animate party competition in India and how these two factors are changing over time. Rahul also weighs in on the cracks that are emerging within the BJP’s core ideological coalition and the risks this fracture poses for the party’s future.

The Hindi Heartland Votes and Niranjan Rajadhyaksha on the Modi Economy May 01, 2019

Show notes

This week on the Grand Tamasha podcast, Neelanjan Sircar of Ashoka University and the Centre for Policy Research joins Milan for our weekly news roundup. The two discuss Neelanjan’s recent column on the epic electoral battle in the crucial heartland state of Uttar Pradesh, whose 80 seats hold the key to the next government. Milan and Neelanjan also discuss whether recent state election results are a good barometer for how those states will behave in national elections.

In this week’s interview segment, Milan speaks with Niranjan Rajadhyaksha, Research Director and Senior Fellow at the IDFC Institute in Mumbai and author of the “Café Economics” column in Mint. Niranjan is one of India’s most thoughtful economists and, in this conversation, he provides his big picture assessment of the Modi economy after five years. Milan and Niranjan discuss India’s “two-speed economy,” the banking crisis, India’s export opportunity amidst the brewing U.S.-China trade spat, and the reform agenda for the next government. Niranjan also offers his two-prong rule of thumb for making sense of India’s contested economic data.

The Mudslinging Campaign and Barkha Dutt on the “Fear” Election of 2019 Apr 24, 2019

Show notes

This week on the Grand Tamasha podcast, Sadanand Dhume of the American Enterprise Institute and Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution join Milan to discuss the latest news from the campaign trail. The three discuss the BJP’s controversial nomination of Sadhvi Pragya and the criticism of the Election Commission’s management of the polls. The three also discuss whether we can read anything into the modest voter turnout in the first two phases of the election.

In this week’s interview segment, Milan talks with veteran journalist Barkha Dutt (of the Washington Post and Tiranga TV) about her reporting on the 2019 election. The two discuss the fake news epidemic in India, the electoral salience of national security, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic messaging. Milan and Barkha also debate whether the Congress President Rahul Gandhi can successfully connect with voters.

A Conversation with India’s New CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian Apr 17, 2019

Show notes

This week we are doing something a little different. Milan Vaishnav sits down with the new Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to the Government of India, Dr. Krishnamurthy Subramanian. Milan had talked with Subramanian at the Georgetown University India Ideas Conference, hosted by the Georgetown India Initiative in partnership with the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI).

In his first official visit to Washington, Subramanian speaks with Milan about India’s macro-economic fundamentals, the status of India’s “twin balance sheet” challenge, and the road map for India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST). They also discuss the new wave of minimum income support schemes cropping up across India and their impact on the fiscal deficit. FICCI President Sandip Somany also joined Milan and Subramanian for the conversation. They also took questions from a live audience.

Modi’s Enduring Popularity, Majoritarian Rhetoric, and Snigdha Poonam on Young Voters Apr 10, 2019

Show notes

First, Milan sits down with Sadanand Dhume of the American Enterprise Institute and Wall Street Journal. In a recent column, Sadanand writes that “an outcome that appeared uncertain a few months ago looks exceedingly likely: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leader of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, is poised to win a second term.” Milan speaks with Sadanand about his recent trip to western Uttar Pradesh and the on-the-ground pro-Modi sentiment he found there. The two also discuss a recent column Sadanand penned on the BJP’s worrying majoritarian rhetoric and Milan’s recent Washington Post op-ed on why voters are searching for an excuse to back Modi.

Then, Milan speaks with Snigdha Poonam, national affairs reporter for the Hindustan Times, on her series on first-time voters. Each week, Snigdha and her colleagues profile a first-time voter across India and documenting their perspective on the 2019 race and what influences their vote. Milan and Snigdha talk about how young voters view Modi, Rahul Gandhi, and India’s economic travails. They also speak about Snigdha’s acclaimed book, Dreamers: How Young Indians Are Changing Their World, and the aspirations and anxieties that animate India’s youth.

Congress Manifesto, Left Politics, and Shashi Tharoor on the Congress Vision in 2019 Apr 03, 2019

Show notes

First, Milan sits down with Roshan Kishore, data and political economy editor at the Hindustan Times. They discuss the Congress Party’s newly unveiled manifesto and its economic centerpiece - a new minimum income support scheme (called “NYAY”, or Nyuntam Aay Yojana).The two also discuss the tensions between the Congress and Left parties in light of Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest elections from Kerala and the general travails of Left politics in India today.

Then, Milan speaks with Congress Member of Parliament Dr. Shashi Tharoor, who took a short break from hectic campaigning in his constituency of Thiruvananthapuram in Kerala to join the show. Milan speaks with Tharoor about the Congress vision for 2019, the top concerns of voters in his constituency, and why the Congress has devoted so much energy to the issue of the controversy surrounding the Rafale fighter jet deal. Milan also asks Tharoor about the future of secularism and why Tharoor has written about the need to reclaim Hinduism from Hindutva.

First Week of Campaigning and Hasan Minhaj on the Battle for the Soul of India Mar 27, 2019

Show notes

First, Milan sits down with Irfan Nooruddin, the Hamad bin Khalifa Professor of Indian Politics in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and Director of the Georgetown India Initiative. Milan and Irfan discuss the first week of official campaigning—including ticket selection by the major parties, the state of alliances, and the BJP’s claim that coalitions are “a potential recipe for causing irreparable damage to India & Indians.” Irfan, who is also the author of Coalition Politics and Economic Development, tells Milan why Indian voters should not fear coalitions, especially those that involve one of India’s two principal national parties.

Then, Milan chats with Indian-American comedian Hasan Minhaj, star of the hit Netflix show, Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj. In the season finale of Patriot Act, which aired on March 17, Minhaj turned his focus to the Indian general elections. In just half an hour, Minhaj covered topics ranging from Narendra Modi to the Congress Party’s corruption scams to the rising tide of nationalism—all with his trademark satirical humor. Milan speaks with Hasan about what it’s like commenting on Indian politics as a member of the Indian diaspora, why the 2019 election is a battle for the soul of India, and how forwards on a family WhatsApp group convinced him to do a show on Indian politics.

Corruption, Southern Politics, and Ruchir Sharma Reflects on 25 Years on the Campaign Trail Mar 20, 2019

Show notes

First, Milan sits down with Reuben Abraham, CEO and senior fellow at the IDFC Institute in Mumbai. A Kerala native who has lived and worked in Hyderabad and now calls Mumbai home, Reuben talks to Milan about the electoral salience of corruption, alliance politics, and recent political developments in southern India.

Then, Milan sits down with author, columnist, and investor Ruchir Sharma to discuss his new book, Democracy on the Road: A 25 Year Journey Through India. For the past 25 years, Ruchir has been spending at least one week every year on the campaign trail in India. In their conversation, Ruchir recounts his run-ins with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Gandhi family, and other prominent politicians. He also reflects on some of the deeper drivers of voter behavior, from economic growth to caste and constituency service.

India’s Economic Woes and the Patchy History of Election Polling Mar 13, 2019

Show notes

First, Milan Vaishnav sits down with Roshan Kishore (Data and Political Economy Editor, Hindustan Times) to discuss the latest economic figures from India. The Government of India reported that GDP growth in the third quarter of 2019 clocked in at 6.6 percent—the slowest pace in five quarters. India’s GDP growth forecast for 2018-19 has also been revised downwards to 7 percent from 7.2 percent. Milan and Roshan discuss the political implications of India’s slowing economy, the nature of rural distress, and how to make sense of India’s contested employment data.

Then, Milan speaks with Neelanjan Sircar, one of India’s leading public opinion experts. Sircar, an assistant professor at Ashoka University and senior visiting fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, explains why pollsters have such a hard time forecasting elections in India and how to make sense of the public opinion surveys that are rushing in ahead of the 2019 general elections. Sircar explains why it is incredibly difficult, if not impossible, for an Indian version of Nate Silver—the star number cruncher of American elections—to emerge. Milan also talks with Sircar about the status of the heated election race in West Bengal, a state Sircar has been researching for a decade.

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