Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Trump Talks Trade Deal + Corn Spread Chat Feb 21, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Potential US-China Trade Deal 🌐
Despite rising tensions, President Trump hinted at the possibility of a new trade deal with China. This follows his announcement of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which prompted China to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. coal, LNG, oil, machinery, and vehicles. Although China failed to meet its Phase One commitments, Trump remains optimistic about renegotiating terms. 🤝📉
Corn Futures Near $5 💰
The Mar25 corn contract hovers near the $5 mark as option expiration approaches. A large amount of open interest at this strike price may influence market behavior today. Additionally, the Mar25-May25 spread reached record-wide levels, hinting at volatility ahead. 🌽💥
Concerns Over Canadian Tariffs and Fertilizer Costs 💸
Nutrien warns that President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian imports could raise U.S. farmers' fertilizer costs, particularly for potash, which is mostly sourced from Canada. The price increase could exceed $100 per ton, affecting farmers after the spring planting season. 🌱⚠️
USDA Releases Frozen Funds 💵
The USDA is releasing $20 million in funds for approved contracts under programs like the Environmental Quality Incentive Program and Conservation Stewardship Program. This follows a review prompted by President Trump's executive order freezing funding. More funds are expected to be released soon. 💼🔓
Gold Prices Surge to Record High 🏆
Gold prices reached a new high of $2,954.69 per ounce, driven by fears of a global trade war amid President Trump's tariff plans. Some analysts predict gold could exceed $3,000, though a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal might limit further price increases. 🛑💰
Drought Conditions Improving Slightly 🌾
The USDA’s drought monitor shows slight improvements in drought conditions across the Corn Belt, particularly in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. However, challenges remain in the High Plains and some areas of the Midwest. 🌧️🌾
US Ethanol Production Holds Steady 🔋
Ethanol production was stable last week, with output holding steady compared to last year. Ethanol stocks saw a 2% increase, and gasoline demand showed a slight uptick year-over-year, despite a weekly dip in demand. ⛽📊

Another Argentina HEAT WAVE - Crops at Risk?? Feb 20, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Warm Temperatures in Argentina 🌡️
Argentina's key farming areas are set to experience temperatures as high as 95°F in the coming days. While the heat could stress crops, the Buenos Aires grains exchange forecasts beneficial rainfall early next week, with some areas receiving up to an inch of rain. The soybean crop is estimated at 49.6mmt, and the corn crop at 49mmt. 🌱🌞
Brazil's Soybean Crop Estimate Reduced 🌾
Agroconsult has revised Brazil's soybean crop estimate to 171.3mmt, down from 172.4mmt in January, mainly due to drought in southern Brazil. However, strong crops in other areas, like Mato Grosso, are expected to offset the losses. Despite the cut, Brazil's soybean crop is still expected to be 10% larger than last season. 🇧🇷🌾
Tensions Between Trump and Zelensky ⚡
Tensions have escalated between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Trump recently labeled Zelensky a dictator and blamed Ukraine for the war with Russia. Zelensky rejected the claims, calling Trump’s statements Russian propaganda. Meanwhile, Russia launched a drone strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing power outages. ⚔️⚡
USDA Mistakenly Fired Bird Flu Response Workers 🦠
The USDA mistakenly laid off several employees working on the bird flu response, including veterinarians and health technicians. These staff members are now being rehired to continue their critical work. The bird flu outbreak has devastated flocks, causing egg prices to hit a record high. 🥚💸
Federal Reserve Maintains Cautious Approach on Rates 💵
The Federal Reserve plans to keep interest rates steady for now, awaiting further signs of inflation improvement. While one rate cut is expected this year, concerns remain over inflation, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. The current benchmark rate sits at 4.25%-4.5%. 📉

Corn Trades 16-Month Highs + DOGE Tackles Checkoff Programs Feb 19, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

CME Corn Futures Surge 🚀
CME corn futures hit their best trade since October 2023, with the Mar25 contract breaking the $5 per bushel mark. US export sales remain a key factor, running 28% ahead of last year’s pace, surpassing USDA's projected 7% increase. "The funds" remain active buyers, holding a net long of 360k contracts. Wheat futures also rose, supported by Black Sea headlines and weather concerns in the US and Russia. Soybean futures closed higher as well. 🌽📈
DOGE Evaluates Agricultural Checkoff Programs 💡
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reviewing USDA’s 22 checkoff programs as part of a broader effort to reduce federal spending. This review could potentially lead to restructuring or regular voting by producers on whether these programs should continue. The checkoff programs, designed for marketing, research, and education, have faced criticism over transparency and fairness. 🧐
January Soybean Crush Data Released 📊
NOPA's January soybean crush data showed a slight decline from December’s all-time high but was still the second-largest on record for the month. The crush totaled 200.4 million bushels, up 7.9% from last year. Soybean oil stocks climbed to a six-month high of 1.27 billion pounds, though they fell short of trade estimates. 🌱
Trump’s Proposed Tariffs on Automobiles, Semiconductors, and Pharmaceuticals 💰
President Trump announced plans to implement 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, with an increase over the next year. The specifics are expected by April, but it's unclear whether the tariffs will target specific countries or all imports. This would have significant effects on U.S. vehicle imports, which make up about half of all vehicle sales in the country. 🚗💥
EU to Ban Pesticide-Treated Crop Imports 🚫
The European Union plans to implement a ban on imports of crops treated with pesticides that are prohibited in Europe for health and environmental reasons. This policy could impact U.S. soybean exports, as the EU is a key buyer of U.S. agricultural products. President Trump has expressed concern, suggesting that such restrictions would harm European markets. 🌍🌾
US Corn Shipments Exceed Expectations 📦
US corn shipments for the week ending February 13 totaled 1.6mmt (63 million bushels), up 19% from the prior week and 53% higher than last year. However, soybean and wheat shipments were below expectations, with soybean exports down 34% and wheat shipments down 56%. 🌾🚢

What is DOGE Doing at USDA?? Feb 18, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 Rollins Confirmed
2:05 DOGE and USDA
3:53 Corn and Wheat Rally
5:24 Black Sea Tensions
8:28 Year-Round E15?
10:00 The Funds
11:06 Brazil Update
12:26 US Corn is Competitive
Brooke Rollins Confirmed as US Secretary of Agriculture 🌾
Brooke Rollins was confirmed as US Secretary of Agriculture with a 72-28 vote. She plans to speed up disaster farm aid and address animal diseases. Rollins emphasized the importance of fairness in agriculture and the USDA's efforts to reduce costs, fraud, and waste. Thousands of probationary employees were fired last week as part of the USDA's efforts to improve efficiency. 🚜
Corn & Wheat Futures Soar 🌽🌾
Corn and wheat futures reached multi-month highs on Friday, with the Mar25 corn contract peaking just below $5.00 per bushel. HRW wheat also posted its highest trade since June, boosted by Black Sea concerns, weather worries in the US and Russia, and short-covering. Soybean futures closed higher but have trended lower since earlier this month. 📉
Ukraine and Europe Concerned About Exclusion from Peace Talks 🇺🇦
Ukraine and European officials are worried about being excluded from US-Russia peace talks. US officials are meeting with Russian leaders to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. While President Trump has mentioned including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the talks, the situation remains uncertain. A recent drone attack on Ukraine’s Chernobyl plant has added to tensions. ⚔️
E15 Sales Legislation Reintroduced 🛢️
Bipartisan legislation to allow year-round sales of E15 fuel was reintroduced in the House and Senate. The measure aims to streamline regulations and remove restrictions on E15 availability. The American Petroleum Institute supports the legislation, but new demand could be offset by exports. E15 fuel requires new infrastructure at gas stations. ⛽
Funds Trim Positions in Corn & Soybeans 💹
Large money managers trimmed their net-long positions in both the corn and soybean markets last week. Corn saw a reduction of 35k contracts, while soybean contracts saw a cut of 31k. The funds were net buyers of SRW wheat on the week. 📊
Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Lags 🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest continues to lag behind last year’s pace, with only 23% of the crop harvested so far, compared to 32% last year. The delay in harvest has affected the planting of Brazil's second corn crop, with some areas experiencing hot and dry weather. 🌾
US Corn Flash Sale 🚚
US exporters sold 100,000mt of corn to Colombia for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn sales for this marketing year are the second highest in the past decade, and US corn is expected to remain competitive on the global market through at least June. 🌍

Trump LOVES U.S. Ethanol, Will Tariff Imports Feb 14, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Proposal 💸
President Trump plans to implement reciprocal tariffs aimed at eliminating trade imbalances, with tailored tariffs for each country to spark new trade negotiations. These tariffs, designed to offset the projected $1.9 trillion budget deficit, have raised concerns about potential retaliation and inflation. Critics worry that they could increase costs for consumers and manufacturers, while Trump believes they will lead to fairer trade deals in the long run. ⚖️
Corn Futures Hold Strong 🌽
Corn futures traded near their recent highs, with the Mar25 contract peaking in the $4.90s but still unable to break the $5 mark. The market shrugged off neutral supply/demand data from USDA on Tuesday. Speculators estimate that large money managers ("the funds") were net long around 350k contracts at Thursday’s close. 📉
Brazil’s Corn Production Outlook 📈
Brazil’s Conab raised its forecast for the nation’s corn production by 2.1%, now pegging it at 122mmt. However, corn planting is lagging behind last year’s pace, with only 5.3% of the crop planted so far. The agency also slightly reduced its soybean crop estimate due to dry conditions affecting the southern regions. 🌾
John Deere Faces Challenges 🚜
John Deere reported a 35% drop in first-quarter revenue, missing analysts' expectations. The company warned that President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum could further harm profitability, as the price of industrial metals rises. Deere expects a decline in sales of large tractors and combines this year. 📉
Strong US Corn & Wheat Export Sales 🌍
US corn and wheat export sales showed strong numbers last week. Corn sales were up 12% compared to the previous week, with Japan as the largest buyer. Wheat sales were also strong, up 30%, with Mexico as the top buyer. Soybean sales, however, were disappointing, falling 52% from the previous week. 🌾
Drought Conditions in the US 🌞
Drought conditions across the Corn Belt remained mostly unchanged, with some expansion in central Missouri to west-central Ohio. Currently, 32% of the region is experiencing some level of drought, compared to 56% three months ago. The High Plains also saw some worsening conditions, particularly in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. 🌾
Wholesale Prices Rise Unexpectedly 📊
US wholesale prices rose 3.5% in January, higher than the expected 3.2% increase. The rise was driven by higher food and energy costs, which has diminished expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Some traders now expect no rate cuts at all in 2024 due to the economic impact of tariffs. 💵

Why Did Soybeans TANK on Wednesday? Feb 13, 2025

Today is THURSDAY! We all make mistakes!

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZc...
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Soybean Futures Drop 🚜📉
Soybean futures fell sharply on Wednesday, with the Mar25 contract losing nearly 16 cents per bushel, hitting its lowest close since January 16th. Reports of large yields in Brazil, rainfall in Argentina, and a bearish global supply-demand situation have been weighing on prices. Analysts believe that large money managers were net sellers but likely remain net long. 📊
Argentina's Rain Brings Relief 🌧️
Heavy rains in key corn and soybean areas of Argentina on Wednesday brought much-needed moisture to drought-affected regions. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange noted that the rains reached areas that had missed previous precipitation, helping crops recover. USDA has lowered its projection for Argentina’s corn and soybean crops due to the dry conditions. 🌱
Trump and Putin Discuss Ukraine Conflict ☎️
President Trump and Russian President Putin discussed efforts to end the Ukraine war. The move could mark a significant shift in US policy. While some believe an end to the war would be bearish for wheat, the ongoing conflict has not supported prices for the past two years. 🌍
Trump Approves SAF Plant Expansion 🌱
The Trump administration has approved a loan for the expansion of a biofuel plant in Montana. This expansion is aimed at boosting U.S. energy dominance, aligning with Trump's goals despite concerns within the biofuel industry. 🔋
Inflation Higher Than Expected 💸
January's consumer inflation was hotter than anticipated, with a 3.0% rise compared to last year. Housing costs continue to drive inflation, with food and energy also showing increases. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the key benchmark rate steady in March. 📉
Ethanol Production Declines 📉
US ethanol production fell last week, marking a -2.7% decline from the prior week and a modest drop from the previous year. With rising corn prices, ethanol production margins have trended lower, and the market is currently seeing negative margins. 🌽

USDA "Balance Sheet Fudgery?" - Are the World Corn Numbers Being Manipulated? Feb 12, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 US Corn and Soybean Numbers
3:01 Global Corn Numbers in Question?
7:01 Argentina Rains
8:31 Mexico Tariff Talk
9:27 The Fed
USDA Keeps Corn and Soybean Estimates Unchanged 🌽
USDA left its corn and soybean balance sheets unchanged on Tuesday, causing the markets to dip. Many traders were hoping for increased demand projections for corn. Minor adjustments were made to the wheat balance sheet, with a 4 million bushel increase in demand. 📉
USDA Lowers Argentina's Corn & Soybean Crop Estimates 🌾
USDA has reduced its estimates for Argentina's corn and soybean crops due to hot and dry weather conditions. The corn crop is now projected at 50mmt, and soybeans at 49mmt. Recent rainfall helped but wasn't enough to fully recover the damage. 🌧️
Rain Brings Relief to Argentina's Crops 🌦️
Rainfall in Argentina this week has provided crucial moisture for the corn and soybean crops, which were struggling in the heat. With temperatures hitting around 104°F on Monday, the rain was a welcome relief, though more is needed for long-term recovery. ☔
Mexico Criticizes US Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum ⚖️
Mexico is set to discuss President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports with the U.S. The tariffs are slated to take effect on March 12. Mexico imports more steel and aluminum from the U.S. than it exports, making these tariffs potentially harmful to both economies. 🇲🇽🔨
Federal Reserve Holds Off on Interest Rate Cuts 💵
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the economy is stable and inflation still needs to cool, so there’s no rush to cut interest rates. The trade expects only two rate cuts this year, with inflation well above the Fed's 2% target. 📉

USDA Will Probably Confirm Friendly Corn Situation, Bearish Soybean Situation Feb 11, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

USDA Report Due Today 📊
USDA's monthly Crop Production and WASDE report will be released today at 11am CST, with slight reductions expected in US corn and soybean ending stocks. Global estimates for corn and soybeans, as well as Brazil and Argentina crop forecasts, are also anticipated to be adjusted. This is the old crop report; the first official 25/26 balance sheets will come in May. 🌾📉
Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Lags 🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest is behind last year’s pace, with only 15% of the crop harvested compared to 23% last year. The delay could affect the planting of Brazil’s second corn crop, with planting in the south-central region at only 20%. 🚜
Brazil’s Inflation Hits 6% 📈
Brazil’s inflation forecast for the coming year has been revised up to nearly 6%, marking the 18th consecutive upward revision. High inflation is linked to elevated government spending and low unemployment. Analysts predict interest rates may reach 15.25% by June. 💸
Russia Cuts Wheat Forecast 🥖
Russian consulting group IKAR lowered its wheat production and export estimates due to freezing temperatures. Wheat exports are projected at 43mmt, down from a previous forecast of 43.5mmt. The decline reflects adverse weather and low stock levels. 🌾❄️
Trump’s Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum ⚒️
President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, affecting all U.S. trading partners. These tariffs will impact various sectors, including automobiles and construction. Trump cites trade deficits and revenue generation as reasons for the move. 🇺🇸🔨
USDA Flash Sale of Corn 🌽
US exporters sold 365,000mt (14mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This brings accumulated corn sales up by 28% compared to last year. 🌽🇲🇽
Record Number of H-2A Visas for South African Workers 🌍
The U.S. issued a record number of H-2A visas to South African farm workers last year, with 15,159 permits granted. This marks a 19% increase from the previous year. Mexico remains the top recipient of these visas. 🛂
Strong US Corn Shipments 🚢
US corn exports were strong last week, with 1.3mmt (53mil bushels) inspected for export, up 49% from the previous year. Wheat shipments exceeded expectations, rising by 112%. However, soybean shipments were down 22% from the same week last year. 📦

Farm Income UP, Crop Receipts DOWN (Government Assistance to the Rescue) Feb 10, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

US Farmer Income Soars With Government Aid 🌾💰
US net farm income is projected to rise by 30% this year, reaching $180.1 billion. This increase is largely driven by government disaster payments, which will contribute over 80% of the growth. While total crop receipts are expected to decline by 2.3%, the overall farm income is still higher than the 20-year average. However, it remains 8.9% lower than the record earnings of 2022. 📉
Trump Announces 25% Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum 🛠️📈
President Trump declared a 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminum, with reciprocal tariffs set to take effect this week. This follows recent announcements of a temporary suspension of universal tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The steel and aluminum tariffs target major suppliers like Canada, China, and Mexico. 💥
USDA Freezes Funding for Conservation Programs 🌱💵
The USDA has paused funding for agricultural conservation programs as part of the Trump administration's review of federal spending. Although farmer aid is supposed to remain unaffected, this freeze impacts conservation initiatives tied to the Inflation Reduction Act. Legal challenges are ongoing regarding the funding freeze. ⚖️
Rain Brings Relief to Argentina’s Soybean Crop 🌧️🌱
Rainfall across Argentina last week offered much-needed relief to the soybean crop. The Rosario grains exchange lowered the percentage of early-planted soybeans in poor condition from 50% to 30%. However, some areas in northeastern Argentina still need rain. 🌍
Funds Boost Corn Position 🌽📈
Large money managers increased their net-long position in corn futures last week. The net long of 362k contracts is the highest since April 2022, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the corn market. The funds were also net buyers of SRW wheat. 🌾
USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report Coming Soon 📊🌾
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Tuesday, with traders expecting small revisions to US corn and soybean ending stocks, as well as global crop estimates. The official 2025/2026 balance sheets will be released later in May. 🗓️
Trump Discusses Peace Talks with Putin 🇷🇺🤝🇺🇸
President Trump and Vladimir Putin have discussed ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. Trump claims Putin is interested in stopping the conflict, and a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is expected to occur soon to discuss efforts for peace. 🕊️

Wheat Rallies to Multi-Month Highs on Crop Damage Concerns Feb 07, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Wheat Futures Surge Amid Cold Weather Concerns 🌾❄️
All three classes of US wheat futures hit multi-month highs overnight, driven by concerns over potential crop damage from cold weather in the Black Sea region. The rise was also fueled by short covering by funds. Corn and soybean futures saw gains as well, supported by President Trump’s temporary suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. China’s mild counter-tariffs, excluding crops, also provided market support. 🌍
Greer Defends Trump's Trade Policies 💼📉
Trump's nominee for US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, defended the administration’s tariff policies during his confirmation hearing. Greer emphasized the need to reform international trade and expand markets for US farmers, while assessing whether trade agreements with China, Mexico, and Canada were upheld. Some senators expressed concerns about tariffs potentially raising costs for farmers. ⚖️
Mexico Eases GMO Corn Import Restrictions 🌽🇲🇽
Mexico has lifted its restrictions on genetically modified (GMO) corn imports, now limiting restrictions only to human consumption. This move follows a ruling by a USMCA panel that determined that the prior restrictions violated the trade agreement. The decision alleviates concerns among US farmers, as Mexico has been a major importer of US GMO corn for livestock feed and industrial use. 🌱
Strong US Corn Export Sales 🌽📦
US corn export sales remained robust last week, totaling 1.5 million metric tons (58 million bushels). This was a 9% increase from the previous week and a 32% rise compared to the prior 4-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer. In contrast, soybean sales were weaker, falling by 12% from the previous week, with China being the largest buyer. 🌍
US Drought Conditions Update 🌾🌧️
USDA’s weekly drought monitor showed scattered rainfall across the Corn Belt, leading to slight improvements in drought conditions in western Missouri, eastern Iowa, and northwest Illinois. However, drought conditions worsened in northwest Indiana, and minimal precipitation was recorded in the High Plains. The drought remains widespread in areas like corn and soybean production. 🌾

Argentina Rains + China Files WTO Complaint Against the US Feb 06, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 Argentina Rainfall
2:00 China WTO Complaint
3:06 China Wheat Situation
6:15 End to Russia/Ukraine War?
7:41 US Dollar and Brazil Currency
9:11 Bunge Profits Drop
9:59 Ethanol Production
10:54 Corn Flash to Mexico
Rainfall Brings Relief to Argentina's Soybean Crop 🌧️🌱
Argentina’s key farming areas received beneficial rainfall this week, especially helping the soybean crop that had been struggling with hot, dry conditions. Some areas saw more than 3 inches of rain. Continued rainfall will be needed to prevent further crop losses. 🌾
China Files WTO Complaint Against US Tariffs ⚖️🇨🇳
China has filed a complaint with the WTO over Trump's new 10% tariffs, claiming they are based on unfounded allegations. This move follows China's retaliation with its own tariffs on US imports, including energy products and agricultural equipment. 🛢️⚙️
China Delays Wheat Imports Due to Ample Domestic Supply 🌾🇨🇳
China has postponed imports of 600,000mt of wheat due to an abundant domestic supply from last year’s bumper crop. As domestic wheat prices have dropped, China has redirected imports, potentially adding pressure to the already struggling wheat market. ⏳
Trump Administration to Reveal Ukraine Peace Plan 🕊️🇺🇦
The Trump administration is expected to unveil a plan to end the war in Ukraine next week. The plan proposes security guarantees for Ukraine and access to its rare earth minerals in exchange for US support. Long-term, Ukraine hopes for NATO membership. 🤝
US Dollar Declines Amid Trade War Uncertainty 💵
The US dollar fell 0.4% yesterday as concerns about a trade war subsided. The shift came after Trump's tariff delay on Canada and Mexico and weaker-than-expected US job data, which increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts. 📉
Bunge's Profits Expected to Decline 📉
Bunge anticipates a profit drop to the lowest level since 2019 due to tariff concerns, abundant soybean supplies, and uncertainty over renewable diesel tax credits. The news caused a nearly 7% drop in the company’s shares, but its acquisition of Viterra could help mitigate trade disruptions. 📊
US Ethanol Production Surges 🚗🌾
US ethanol production reached 1.1 million barrels per day last week, up 9.6% from the previous week and 12% year-over-year. Ethanol stocks also rose, and gasoline demand was up slightly compared to last year. ⛽
Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico 🌽🇲🇽
US exporters sold 330,000mt of corn to Mexico for the 2025/2026 marketing year, shortly after Mexico agreed to a temporary suspension of tariffs with President Trump. 🌽

US/China Trade Deal Phase TWO?? Could You Imagine?? Feb 05, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 19k Subs!
0:44 Another US/China Trade Deal?
3:38 Argentina Crop Problems
5:12 Wheat Exports and Russia
8:37 Farmer Sentiment Improves
9:45 More ADM Problems
10:46 Stock Market Bounces
11:51 Corn Flash
China May Revive Phase One Trade Deal with Trump 🇨🇳🤝🇺🇸
China could be looking to renegotiate the Phase One trade deal from 2020, which aimed to increase purchases of US agricultural products like corn and soybeans. Trump’s recent 10% tariff on Chinese imports has sparked speculation about a new deal, encouraging buying in the markets. China is expected to fulfill its commitment to increase US agricultural purchases if an agreement is reached. 🌽
Argentina’s Crop Outlook Turns Bleaker 🌾☀️
Drought conditions in Argentina have caused concerns about corn and soybean crop yields. Forecasts have been reduced, with yields potentially falling to 40mmt if dry weather persists. Farmers remain hopeful for rain in the coming weeks, but the extent and timing are uncertain. 🌧️
Sovecon Raises Russia’s Wheat Export Outlook 🌾🇷🇺
Sovecon has increased its forecast for Russia's wheat exports to 38.3mmt, a 5.2% rise from its previous estimate. Despite a mixed outlook on crop conditions, Russia's winter grains are performing better than expected after tough weather last year. ❄️
US Farmer Sentiment Improves Despite Trade Concerns 🚜📈
US farmer sentiment improved in January, with the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rising to 141. While concerns about trade wars remain, 42% of farmers believe trade policy will be crucial to their operations over the next five years. 🌱
ADM Plans to Cut Costs After Profit Decline 💼📉
Agricultural giant ADM is planning to cut costs by $750 million over the next three to five years, including job cuts and selling off underperforming sectors. This comes after a poor fourth-quarter profit and a financial scandal. 💔
Stock Market Recovers After Tariff Suspension 📈💵
The stock market bounced back, with the Dow Jones up 0.3%, the S&P 500 increasing 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rising 1.4%. The market was buoyed by Trump’s suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a strong performance from Palantir. 📊
USDA Reports Flash Sale of Corn 🌽🚢
US exporters sold 132,000mt of corn to South Korea, continuing strong export sales. Year-to-date corn sales are up 28% compared to last year. 🚜

Mexico Doesn't Want a Trade War, Corn Prices Surge Feb 04, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Trump Temporarily Suspends Tariffs on Mexico 🇲🇽💼
President Trump agreed to delay the planned 25% tariffs on Mexico for 30 days. 🇺🇸🤝🇲🇽 In return, Mexico committed to sending 10,000 National Guard officers to the border to curb fentanyl and migrant flows. As a result, the Mexican peso strengthened, and corn futures recovered, easing concerns over unshipped US corn sales to Mexico. 🌽💰
Trump Suspends Tariffs on Canadian Imports 🇨🇦💼
President Trump also delayed tariffs on Canadian imports for 30 days after negotiations with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Canada agreed to spend $1.3 billion to strengthen its border, appoint a fentanyl czar, and list Mexican cartels as terrorist groups. 📈
China Announces Retaliatory Tariffs 🇨🇳⚔️
China imposed retaliatory tariffs on some US imports, including a 15% tariff on $5 billion worth of energy imports like oil and natural gas. ⛽ A 10% tariff on agricultural equipment was also announced. China refrained from targeting soybeans, but tensions remain. ⚖️
Brazilian Real Climbs Against the Dollar 💰📈
The Brazilian real rose for the 11th consecutive day, hitting its highest level since November, following Trump’s tariff suspension on Mexico. 📊 It has gained roughly 6% year-to-date, reflecting optimism about Brazil’s economic outlook.
Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimates Vary 🌱
Brazil’s soybean crop estimates differ among analysts. Celeres raised its forecast to 174mmt due to favorable weather, while StoneX cut its estimate to 170.9mmt due to dry conditions. 🌾 AgRural reported that Brazil's soybean harvest is 9% complete, trailing behind last year's pace. 📉
US Corn Shipments Surge 🌽🚢
US corn exports remained strong, with 1.3mmt (49 million bushels) inspected for export, up 94% from last year. 🌾 Soybean exports were also up by 37% compared to the prior week. However, wheat shipments declined. 📉

Live from Nashville! Tariff Talk, Unshipped Bushels, The Funds, and More! Feb 03, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095
Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG
Trump Imposes Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China 💥
President Trump followed through on his threat, imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on China, effective Tuesday. 🌎 These tariffs are set to stay until illegal immigration and fentanyl influx stop. Additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, chips, and pharmaceuticals are expected. Traders seem concerned, as grain markets are trading lower despite the news being telegraphed. 📉
Retaliation Plans from Mexico and Canada 🇲🇽🇨🇦
Both Canada and Mexico are preparing counter-tariffs. Canada plans 25% tariffs on $106 billion worth of U.S. goods, starting with a quarter on Tuesday. Mexico is considering retaliatory tariffs, though specifics aren't out yet. China, facing a 10% tariff, will take legal action via the WTO. 🌾 Corn and soybean retaliation remains a possibility. 🌽
Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn and Soybeans 📊
Large money managers increased their net-long position in both corn and soybeans last week, with the net-long corn position hitting a record high. 📈 The funds were net buyers of 22k corn contracts and 7k soybean contracts, signaling optimism about crop potential despite market volatility. 🐂
Argentina's Soybean Crop Outlook Deteriorates 🌱
Argentina’s soybean crop may be worse than expected, with satellite imagery estimating it at just 45mmt, much lower than earlier projections. 🌧️ Harvesting is behind, and rain forecasted for the coming days is expected to be light, offering little relief. 🌾
U.S. Resumes Mexican Cattle Imports Amid Tight Supply 🐄
The U.S. is set to resume Mexican cattle imports after a suspension due to the New World screwworm. The tight cattle supply has driven U.S. cattle prices to record highs, further reinforced by USDA's report showing the smallest U.S. cattle herd since 1951. 📉

Corn Gaps Lower After Trump Confirms Tariff Plan Jan 31, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Trump's Tariff Plans Unfold 💥
President Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports starting tomorrow, citing issues like fentanyl trafficking and trade deficits. 🌎 The tariffs could increase over time, with China also being targeted. The situation remains fluid, with Trump aides seeking last-minute deals. ⚖️
Mexico Prepares Retaliation 🇲🇽
Mexico is ready to retaliate with tariffs of up to 20% on U.S. products like produce, cheese, pork, and bourbon. 🍋🧀 The proposed 25% tariff on Mexican imports could cost 400,000 U.S. jobs, but for now, Mexican corn purchases remain unaffected. 🌽
Brazil's Corn Planting Delays Impact Supply 🌾
Delayed planting in Brazil’s top corn-producing state, Mato Grosso, could further restrict global corn supply. 🌧️ Despite the delay, planting progress is expected to pick up this week, with two-thirds of Brazil's second corn crop coming from Mato Grosso and Paraná. 📅
US Corn Export Sales Strong 🚢
US corn export sales were solid last week, with Japan leading the purchases. 🌍 Soybean sales fell short of expectations, while wheat exports surged. 🌾
US Drought Conditions Update 🌵
Drought conditions in the Corn Belt remained steady last week, with expansion in western Missouri. 🌾 29% of the region is experiencing drought, with soybeans and spring wheat also impacted. 🌱

ROCKET SHIP: Spot Corn Trades 14-Month High Jan 30, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Wednesday's Rally
4:00 Mexico Tariff Comments
6:41 Lutnick Comments
7:56 Russia Wheat Situation
9:02 Fed Holds Rates Steady
Corn and Soybean Futures Surge 🌾
Corn and soybean futures saw a strong rally on Wednesday, with corn reaching a 7-month high at $4.97. 🌽 The tightening U.S. supply-demand situation continues to support these markets, and wheat futures also gained. 📈
Mexico Prepared for Potential Tariffs 🇲🇽
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum isn’t expecting immediate tariffs but has a plan in place if they are implemented. 🚨 A potential trade war could impact the $800 billion annual trade between the U.S. and Mexico, with Mexico being the top buyer of U.S. corn this year. 🌽
Trump’s Commerce Secretary on Tariffs 💼
President Trump's nominee for Commerce Secretary emphasized that tariffs could be avoided if Mexico and Canada curb fentanyl flows. He also discussed potential restrictions on China’s access to technology due to recent AI developments. ⚖️
Russian Grain Exports Expected to Decline 🌾
Russia’s grain exports are projected to drop significantly this season, falling to 57mmt from 72mmt last year, due to extreme weather conditions. 🌧️ Despite this, 82% of the country's grain crop is reportedly in good condition. 🌾
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady 💵
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, noting that inflation remains high and the job market is solid. President Trump criticized the Fed for allowing inflation to rise and promised to stabilize prices through energy production and better trade deals. 📉

Trump Spending Freeze, Direct Farm Payments, and Corn Strength Jan 29, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Federal Funding Freeze Temporarily Blocked
A federal judge has temporarily blocked President Trump’s funding freeze, which would affect various programs like the Inflation Reduction Act. 🛑 Programs supporting Americans, like Medicare and food stamps, are safe, but the freeze may impact the 45Z tax credit and biofuels. 💰
Corn Futures Near Recent Highs
Corn futures are just below recent highs, with tightening U.S. supply and strong demand driving prices. 🌽 Farmers in Brazil have planted only a small portion of their second corn crop. 📈
Tariff Threats Boost Dollar
The U.S. dollar gained strength following renewed tariff threats from President Trump. 💵 Trump is considering tariffs on imports like computer chips and steel, which is pushing the dollar higher. 📊
Contaminated Soybean Meal Found in Brazil
Sand was discovered in Brazilian soybean meal at the Port of Paranaguá, leading to rejections of contaminated shipments. 🌾 This comes as China halts shipments from five Brazilian companies. 🚫
Flash Sale of U.S. Corn to South Korea
U.S. corn exports saw a strong flash sale to South Korea, with competitive pricing likely to boost further sales. 🌽 Global demand for U.S. corn remains strong as Brazil’s larger crop is still in the works. 🌍
Federal Reserve Expected to Hold Rates
The Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged today, despite Trump’s calls for rate cuts. 💵 The decision comes as the Fed continues to assess inflation trends amid Trump’s economic policies. 📉

Treasury Secretary Pushes "Easier" Tariff Plan Jan 28, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Tariff Uncertainty Continues
President Trump’s tariff plans remain unclear, with reports suggesting a gradual increase starting at 2.5%. 🌎 Meanwhile, Canada is preparing for potential tariffs on U.S. goods, with some politicians pushing for a united global response. 🇨🇦
Brazil’s Soybean Crop Update
Brazil's soybean crop forecast has been slightly reduced, and the slow harvest is affecting the second corn crop. 🌱
Russian Wheat Prices Rise
Russian wheat prices rose due to a limited supply. 🌾
U.S. Export Trends
U.S. corn exports showed strength last week, but soybean shipments fell short of expectations. 🌽 Soybean shipments were down 26%, while wheat exports exceeded expectations. 📉
JBS Enters the Egg Market
JBS has entered the egg market, acquiring a stake in South America's top producer. 🥚
U.S. Corn Exports to Mexico
The U.S. exported corn to Mexico, continuing trade despite tariff threats. 🌽

Let the Tariff Games Begin (Corn and Soybeans) Jan 27, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🟢 Key Updates on US Markets and Global Trade 💥
US Tariff Tensions: Colombia and Canada Respond
President Donald Trump announced the potential for a 25% tariff on Colombian imports after the country refused to allow US planes carrying deported migrants to land. In response, Colombia retaliated with its own tariffs on US goods. However, the situation calmed when Colombia agreed to accept the deportees. Colombia has already accounted for 9.7% of US corn export sales this year. Similar tariff threats are looming for Mexico and Canada, with 308 million bushels of unshipped corn from Mexico on the line.
Increased Net-Long Positions in Corn & Soybean Markets
CFTC data from January 21 revealed that funds increased their net-long position in corn to 322k contracts, the highest since May 2022. Additionally, funds were net buyers of 73k contracts of soybeans, marking the largest position since November 2023. This bullish sentiment indicates strong demand for US crops, despite global market challenges.
Argentina’s Dry Conditions Impacting Corn & Soybean Yields
Argentina’s crop outlook is being negatively impacted by hot and dry weather. The USDA’s attaché office has lowered its corn forecast to 49 million metric tons (mmt), down from the 51mmt forecast. Corn exports are now expected to total 34mmt, lower than the 36mmt forecasted by USDA. Argentina's soybean crop is also facing yield reduction due to the dry conditions.
China Imposes Temporary Soybean Import Restrictions
China has imposed restrictions on soybean imports from five Brazilian exporters after they failed to meet plant health standards. Although the volume affected is small, the disruption could have broader implications for global soybean trade, particularly in the face of rising tensions with the US. Brazil’s soybean exports to China remain strong, while US soybean sales are being overshadowed.
Wheat Crop Damage from Extreme Cold
The US winter wheat crop is suffering from an Arctic blast, with 15% of the crop potentially killed by bitterly cold temperatures. The Commodity Weather Group forecasts a 6.7% reduction in HRW wheat production and a 3.5% decline in SRW wheat.
US Export Sales Show Strength Despite Global Setbacks
US corn exports surged to 1.7mmt (65 million bushels), marking a 62% increase compared to the previous week. Soybean exports, however, were weaker at 973,145mt (36 million bushels), a 28% drop from the previous week. Wheat exports also disappointed at 164,800mt (6 million bushels), falling far below expectations.
Global Markets React to Tariff Uncertainty & Economic Moves
US stock markets experienced sharp declines, with the Nasdaq down over 4%, driven by fears surrounding President Trump’s tariffs. The US Dollar weakened, while global equity markets, especially in Japan and Mexico, surged as they benefitted from trade optimism.
Cattle Report Reveals Bullish Trends in Beef Market
The Cattle on Feed Report showed a 1% decline in cattle numbers as of January 1 compared to last year. Placements in December were below expectations, signaling a bullish outlook for the beef market. The lighter placements combined with increased marketings suggest reduced cattle numbers, likely leading to tighter beef supplies.

How BAD are the Crops in Argentina?? Jan 24, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌱🌽 Argentina’s soybean and corn crop forecasts were cut due to hot and dry weather. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange now predicts the soybean crop will reach 49.6 million metric tons (down 1mmt) and the corn crop 49 million metric tons (also down 1mmt). While some rain is expected in soybean areas soon 🌧️, the intense heat 🌞 will likely limit its benefits.

🇦🇷 To help farmers struggling with drought and low crop prices, Argentina is temporarily reducing export taxes on soybeans, soybean products, corn, and wheat 🌾. The tax cuts, fulfilling a campaign promise by President Javier Milei, will start Monday and run through June. Farmers have been facing a rainfall deficit since December, making these changes critical.

🛢️ Brooke Rollins, President Trump’s nominee for Agriculture Secretary, promised to support all fuel types, including biofuels. During her hearing, she distanced herself from her previous employer, who opposed biofuels, and committed to following Trump’s energy dominance plan. Rollins also plans to work on 45Z tax credit guidance with Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent. Meanwhile, Trump announced plans to declare a national energy emergency, which may allow year-round sales of E15 fuel.

🚜 Rollins also said she might consider direct payments to farmers hurt by tariffs, similar to Trump’s earlier approach. During his first term, the administration spent billions to offset losses from retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans. Some senators criticized this method, saying farmers prefer to sell their products rather than rely on government aid. Rollins also aims to reduce the $42 billion agricultural trade deficit and expand trade markets, though she had no response when asked about the impact of mass deportations on farmworkers.

🍶 US ethanol production increased last week, hitting 1.1 million barrels per day, up 4.3% from the same time last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 25.9 million barrels, a 3.5% increase from the previous week. Gasoline demand, however, dropped by 2.9% compared to the week before.

🌾 The USDA’s latest drought report shows little change in conditions. The Corn Belt saw limited rain, with slight improvements in northern Indiana and Illinois. The High Plains remained dry, and cold air from Canada brought temperatures 12–15°F below normal.

Drought Impact:

🌽 Corn: 42%
🌱 Soybeans: 35%
🌾 Winter Wheat: 23%
🌾 Spring Wheat: 45%
🐄 Cattle: 33%

Is 45Z Dead? + Wetter Argentina Forecast Jan 23, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
A bipartisan group of senators has reintroduced the Farm to Fly Act to speed up the production of SAF. The legislation would clarify SAF eligibility in the USDA's current bioenergy programs and expand markets for crops used in SAF production. It would also clarify the federal definition of SAF for USDA purposes and promote more collaboration on aviation biofuels within the USDA. Six senators from the Midwest reintroduced the bill. Agriculture, aviation, and energy groups have all expressed support for the legislation. The reintroduction came one day after President Donald Trump signed an executive order freezing any new federal rules for 60 days, including the 45Z tax credit guidance.
USDA reported a flash sale of corn on Wednesday. US exporters sold 136,000mt (5mil bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Current marketing year corn sales are the third best in the last ten years.
China has suspended Brazilian soybean shipments from five companies. China's General Administration of Customs halted the shipments after finding pesticides and pests during a routine inspection. Authorities did not release the number of cargoes or the volume of soybeans affected by the suspension. However, the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture reported that the ban is not expected to affect Brazil's overall soybean exports to China. The ministry is expected to provide China with the necessary information to lift the temporary suspensions. The firms included in the ban are some of the largest soybean suppliers to China.
Weather forecasts for southern Brazil and Argentina have turned slightly wetter. Rains are slated to return to southern Brazil and northern Argentina by Sunday. Southern Brazil, in particular, should see widespread coverage during the next 5 days. The 5-10 day period introduces slightly better rainfall for key Argentina soybean areas. This morning's extended GFS model, however, is again drier for much of Argentina's soybean country. Despite the rain, parts of Argentina, including Buenos Aires, may remain drier than normal.
President Donald Trump is pressuring Russia to negotiate an end to the war with Ukraine. On Wednesday, Trump said that Russia needs to make a deal to end the war, or the US will impose tariffs, higher taxes, and sanctions on Russian imports. The same would apply to other countries providing financial support to Russia. It's unclear which specific Russian goods would be targeted, but Russia's main oil producers could be included. Tariffs, however, won't be overly impactful given that the US only imported about $4.6 billion worth of Russian goods in 2023, accounting for only 0.2% of total imports.
President Donald Trump's nominee for Agriculture Secretary previously opposed ethanol and farm subsidies. Brooke Rollins served as president and CEO of the Texas Public Policy Foundation from 2003 to 2018. During that time, the organization claimed that government support for ethanol led to an increase in emissions and a rise in food and fuel prices. In 2016, while Rollins remained in her position with the nonprofit, the group advocated for the elimination of farm subsidies. Despite Rollins' controversial history on policies affecting farmers, more than 400 state and national agricultural groups endorsed her to lead the USDA.

Is China BACK?? (Corn Purchase Rumors) Jan 22, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Rumors and China
3:27 Corn/Soybean Acreage Estimates
6:47 China Tariffs on Feb 1st?
8:24 South America Update
10:25 Strong Corn Shipments
🟢 US Corn Market Shows Positive Signs Amid China Rumors & Export Surge 🌽
There were rumors on Tuesday regarding potential Chinese purchases of US corn, following a Monday announcement from the Chinese government indicating plans to increase the scale of corn purchases and expand grain storage. Despite China’s imports of US corn being near zero this year, the possibility of increased demand has positively impacted the corn market, with spot-month corn futures reaching their best levels since October 2023. 📈🌾
📊 S&P Global Adjusts US Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates 🌱
S&P Global Commodity Insights has increased its forecast for US corn acreage to 93.5 million acres, a 700,000-acre increase from its previous estimate. This is a 2.9 million-acre increase compared to 2024. However, soybean acreage is expected to decrease by 700,000 acres, with the forecast now at 83.3 million acres. This aligns with USDA projections of 82.9 million acres for corn and 86.1 million acres for soybeans. 🌽
🚨 Trump Considers Tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada 💼
President Donald Trump is weighing a 10% tariff on China as early as February 1, citing China’s role in the fentanyl trade. Trump is also considering a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, with the aim of curbing illegal immigration and addressing trade concerns. These potential tariffs come on the heels of earlier proposals for a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Traders are reacting to these ongoing developments, as tariffs could impact global trade and affect US exports. 💥
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Soybean Crop Outlook Raised 🚜
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) has raised its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop to 171.7 million metric tons (mmt), up from 168.7mmt. Exports are expected to reach 106.1mmt, a 2.6mmt increase from previous estimates. Soybean crush is also expected to slightly rise to 57.1mmt. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Brazil’s crop at 169mmt, while Brazil’s crop agency Conab estimates 166.3mmt. 🌱🌍
📦 US Corn Exports Surpass Expectations 📈
US corn exports exceeded expectations last week, with 1.5mmt (61 million bushels) inspected for export during the week ending January 16. This marked a 6.9% increase compared to the prior week and a 106% increase compared to the same week in 2023. Meanwhile, soybean shipments were disappointing, falling to 973,145mt (36 million bushels), 28% lower than the previous week and 18% lower than last year. Wheat shipments also fell short, down 13% from the prior week.

Disappointing Weekend Rains in Arg/Brazil + Tariff Latest Jan 21, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Argy Rains Disappoint
2:11 Slow Brazil Harvest Start
4:15 Tariff Update
7:41 The Funds
10:06 Soy Exports to China Decline
11:36 Bitcoin and Trump Meme Coin
🌧️ Weather Woes Continue for Argentina and Brazil 🌾
While Argentina and southern Brazil received some rain over the weekend, soybean crops are still struggling with dryness in key areas. Argentina’s central soybean regions received up to 1" of rain, but much of the problem areas remained dry. Forecasts indicate that rainfall will stay scarce in the next 5 days, though better chances are expected later, based on the Euro model.
In Brazil, the soybean harvest is facing its slowest pace in four years, with just 1.7% of the crop harvested as of last week, far behind 6% last year. Excessive rain in Mato Grosso has hindered progress, making this the slowest start to the harvest since the 2010/2011 season. This has also delayed planting for Brazil's second corn crop, with planting at just 0.3%, far below last year's 4.9%.
💼 Trump Delays Immediate Tariff Action 🚨
President Donald Trump has delayed the immediate implementation of tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, opting instead for a review of trade policies with China, Canada, and Mexico. The main focus is on ensuring that trade deals such as the USMCA and the Phase One trade deal with China are being adhered to. This delay offers some relief to those concerned about immediate tariff impacts, though Trump is still considering 25% tariffs by February 1st on goods from these countries.
📈 Fund Positioning Shows Optimism in Corn & Soybean Markets 🌽
"The Funds" have significantly increased their net-long positions in corn and soybean markets. For the week ending January 14, large money managers were net buyers of 48k corn contracts, bringing their total long position to 292k contracts, the largest since May 2022. Soybean markets also saw substantial buying, with 73k contracts purchased, making this the largest net long position in soybeans since November 2023. The funds were also net sellers of 5k contracts of SRW wheat, signaling more focus on corn and soybeans.
🇨🇳 US & Brazil Soybean Exports Diverge 📉
US soybean exports to China declined by 5.7% in 2024, reaching 22.1mmt, while Brazilian exports surged by 6.7% to 74.7mmt. As Brazil’s market share in China increased to 71%, the US share dropped to 21%. This shift reflects growing competition between the two countries. Argentina’s soybean exports to China also jumped, more than doubling to 4.1mmt. 🌍
💰 Bitcoin Reaches New Heights Before Inauguration 🪙
Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high, surpassing $109,000 early Monday, as President Donald Trump's administration is expected to create a pro-crypto regulatory environment. This surge in Bitcoin prices was fueled by anticipation of Trump’s potential crypto advisory council and the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve.

US Farmers Sell TONS of Old Crop Corn: Right or Wrong?? Jan 17, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
📉 US Farmer Selling Increases Amid Economic Pressures 🚜
According to Reuters, US farmers have increased their selling of corn and soybeans this week, following the USDA's report that reduced the 2024 corn and soybean production estimates. Despite the recent rally in grain markets, farmers continue to face low profits and rising input costs. Farm income has fallen by nearly 23% since 2022, raising concerns about the year ahead.
🌱 Soybean Futures Fall Despite Tighter US Supply 🛑
Soybean futures dropped sharply on Thursday, with the Mar25 contract losing 25 cents per bushel 🌾. While the US supply and demand situation has tightened, global soybean supply remains burdensome, and recent improvements in the weather forecast for southern Brazil and Argentina may have triggered the selling. The global market's supply concerns persist, but farmers and traders alike will be watching the weather patterns closely as these two key regions experience different growing conditions 📉.
🌍 Brazil's Soybean Crop Forecast Slightly Raised 📈
Agroconsult has slightly raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 172.4mmt, a small increase from its previous estimate of 172.2mmt 🌱. This increase is attributed to ideal weather and favorable planting conditions in most areas of Brazil. However, excessive rainfall in central Brazil and dry conditions in southern Brazil could affect harvest and yields. Despite these concerns, Brazil’s overall soybean production is set to remain strong, with record acreage expected 🌾.
💼 Trump’s Treasury Nominee Defends Tariff Plans 💰
During his confirmation hearing, Scott Bessent, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, defended the tariff proposals, suggesting they would be implemented gradually over the coming months 📊. Bessent emphasized that tariffs would help address unfair trade practices and geopolitical issues, despite concerns from some senators about their potential impact on inflation.
US export sales showed improvements in corn and wheat but remained weak for soybeans. 🌾
Corn sales reached 1mmt (40 million bushels), surpassing expectations, with Japan as the largest buyer 🇯🇵.
Soybean sales were 569,100mt (21 million bushels), slightly up from the previous week but down 27% from the 4-week average . China was the largest buyer 🇨🇳.
Wheat sales reached 513,400mt (19 million bushels), exceeding expectations, with South Korea as the largest buyer 🇰🇷.
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Shows Limited Improvement 🚨
The USDA released its weekly drought monitor, showing minimal precipitation across the Corn Belt and High Plains. However, drought conditions improved slightly in eastern Ohio, northern Indiana, and northeast Missouri, while worsening in southwest Nebraska 🌾🌧️. Here’s a breakdown of the areas still affected:
Corn: 42% affected 🌽
Soybeans: 34% affected 🌱
Winter Wheat: 22% affected 🌾
Spring Wheat: 33% affected 🌾
Cattle: 32% affected 🐄
📦 Flash Sales of Soybeans and Corn 📊
In another round of flash sales, US exporters sold:
132,000mt of soybeans (5 million bushels) to China 🇨🇳 for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
135,000mt of corn (5 million bushels) to Taiwan 🇹🇼 for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Canada Threatens Tariffs + 45Z News and Soybean Selloff Jan 16, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Subscribe!
1:00 Canada Tariff Threat
3:45 45Z / CSA
5:42 NOPA Crush
8:13 Argentina Rainfall
9:58 Ethanol Production
10:59 Consumer Inflation
Canada's Potential Tariffs on US Products
Canada is preparing to impose tariffs on $105 billion worth of US products if President-elect Donald Trump moves forward with his planned tariffs on Canadian goods. The list of products targeted by Canadian tariffs hasn’t been disclosed yet, but they could affect almost a third of US exports to Canada.
USDA Issues New Rule for Climate-Smart Biofuels
The USDA has announced an interim rule regarding climate-smart practices for biofuel feedstocks. This includes corn, soy, and sorghum and provides farmers with more flexibility to adopt practices like no-till, cover crops, and nutrient management to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This rule will tie into the 45Z tax credit guidance, potentially unlocking new market opportunities for farmers producing biofuel feedstocks.
US Soybean Crush Hits Record High
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its December crush data, showing that US soybean crush hit an all-time high of 206.6 million bushels. This is a 6.9% increase from November and a 5.8% increase compared to last year. Soybean oil stocks climbed to 1.2 billion pounds, although they were slightly below trade estimates. This marks a strong 2024 for soybean production and oil availability.
Argentina's Crop Outlook Revised
The Rosario Grains Exchange has lowered its corn and soybean crop estimates for Argentina. Argentina's corn crop is now projected at 48mmt, down from previous estimates of 50-51mmt due to dry conditions. Similarly, soybean output is expected to fall, as droughts have reduced yields. The revised forecasts suggest that rainfall in both Argentina and southern Brazil could provide some relief in the coming weeks.
US Ethanol Production Remains Strong
US ethanol production fell slightly by 1% last week to 1.1 million barrels per day but remains up 3.1% compared to last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 25 million barrels, marking a 3.6% week-over-week increase. Implied gasoline demand showed a slight dip, down 1.8% from the previous week, but remained steady year-over-year. Keep an eye on ethanol production as it continues to play a key role in biofuel output and agriculture!
Inflation Indicator Declines for First Time Since July
Core CPI (excluding food and gas) rose by 0.2% in December, showing the first decline since July. The annual increase is now 3.2%, down slightly from 3.3% in November. Headline CPI rose to 2.9%, staying in line with expectations. Experts are concerned that Trump’s economic policies could cause inflation to resurge.

Can China "AFFORD" to Avoid US Soybeans?? Jan 15, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Reduced Tariff Threat and US Dollar
3:43 Differing Tariff Opinions
6:46 Grain Marketing WARNING
7:37 CONAB Report
9:52 FTC and John Deere
10:57 Wholesale Inflation
12:24 Flash Sale
💰 President-Elect Donald Trump's Tariff Proposal: Gradual Increase 🌐
President-elect Donald Trump’s economic team is deliberating a gradual increase in tariffs starting next year. This approach aims to increase negotiating power while avoiding inflation spikes. The announcement on Tuesday triggered a decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields 📉. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.75% 📊.
🇨🇳 China's Soybean Trade: Is There a Tariff Threat? 🌾
Analysts are divided on whether China will impose tariffs on US soybeans. While trade between the US and China remains crucial for both countries, China’s domestic production of soybeans is growing, which could reduce its reliance on US imports 🌱. However, US farmers support Trump’s policies, and he is unlikely to harm their interests. Analysts suggest that a phase two trade deal could address these concerns and ensure continued soybean trade.
🌾 Brazil’s Soybean Crop Projected to Reach Record High 🌎
Brazil's crop agency, Conab, forecasts a record Brazilian soybean crop of 166.3 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 12.6% from last season 📈. This is due to favorable growing conditions and a projected rise in soybean acreage. Soybean exports are expected to hit 105mmt, a 6.5% increase from last year 🚢. However, Brazil's corn production estimate was slightly lowered to 119.6mmt due to drier conditions in southern Brazil 🌽. See Brazil and Argentina weather maps below for more on the agricultural impact 🌧️.
⚖️ FTC vs. John Deere: Lawsuit in the Works? 🚜
The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is considering a lawsuit against John Deere for restricting repair access 🛠️. The FTC claims Deere's practices violate competition laws by denying farmers and independent repair shops access to necessary diagnostic tools. This has led to an increase in maintenance costs for agricultural equipment by 48% in the past four years 🚜. The FTC has been investigating Deere since 2021, and a decision on filing the lawsuit is expected soon 🏛️.
📉 Wholesale Inflation Tamer Than Expected 📊
Wholesale inflation in December came in below expectations, with the PPI rising by 3.3% compared to last year (up from 3% in November). The figure was still lower than the anticipated 3.5% increase 📉. Monthly prices rose by just 0.2%, well below the expected 0.4% 📈.
🌱 Flash Soybean Sale 🚢
The USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans on Tuesday 🌾. US exporters sold 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

MASSIVE Fund Buying Drives Corn/Soybean Rally Jan 14, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Big Row Crop Rally
3:04 The Funds
5:12 Canada Tariffs?
8:07 China Soybean Imports
9:42 South America Update
11:34 Grain Shipments
Corn and Soybean Futures Rally Again
Corn and soybean futures continued their upward trend on Monday, with Mar25 corn contracts gaining 6 cents per bushel, marking its best close since June 18th. The rally from the August low to Monday’s high saw a 72-cent increase, or about 18%. Meanwhile, Mar25 soybean contracts gained nearly 28 cents per bushel, achieving its best close since October 8th. From December’s low to the overnight high, the contract rose by $1.10, or approximately 12%. These market movements reflect a tightening of US supply and demand, driven by bullish data from USDA last Friday.
Trump’s Tariffs on Canada to Include Oil
In a major development, President-elect Donald Trump is planning to include oil in his tariffs on Canadian imports. The premier of Alberta confirmed the news after meeting with Trump over the weekend. Canada is expected to retaliate with its own tariffs, potentially restricting energy exports to the US. Alberta supplies nearly 4 million barrels per day of oil to the US, which could have significant implications for energy prices.
China’s Record Soybean Imports in 2024
China has imported a record 105.03 million metric tons (mmt) of US soybeans in 2024, marking an increase of 6.5% from 2023. This surge in imports is attributed to concerns about potential US-China trade tensions under Trump’s administration, along with favorable crush margins and declining soybean prices. Despite the surge, Chinese traders have diversified their suppliers and are preparing for possible disruptions due to potential trade wars. US soybean sales remain strong but may face challenges from oversupply and weak margins.
Soybean Harvest Disrupted in Mato Grosso
Rainfall is impacting soybean harvest in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state. According to AgRural, the harvest pace is the slowest in seven years, although the state’s soybean potential remains excellent with no quality issues reported. However, the delay could impact the second corn crop planting window, a concern for Brazil’s corn producers. Meanwhile, southern Brazil continues to experience hot temperatures and a lack of rainfall, affecting soybean crops.
US Export Sales Exceed Expectations
US export sales were strong last week. The USDA reported that 1.4mmt (57 million bushels) of corn were inspected for export, up 64% from the previous week and 51% higher than the same week last year. Soybean shipments also increased to 1.4mmt (50 million bushels), up 4.2% from the prior week and 5.5% from last year. Wheat shipments were reported at 288,895mt (11 million bushels), though slightly lower than the previous week. Additionally, US exporters sold 198,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

USDA Blockbuster - RECORD Corn and Soybean Yield Cuts Jan 13, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 Corn Futures Surge Following USDA’s Bullish Report 📊
Corn futures rallied sharply on Friday, with the nearby Mar25 contract gaining more than 14 cents per bushel and posting its best trade since June 20th 📈. The USDA reduced its estimate of the 2024 US corn crop by a whopping 267 million bushels, and USDA’s estimate of last year's national corn yield was cut by 3.8 bushels per acre, marking the largest Nov to Jan cut on record. As a result, 2024/2025 US corn ending stocks were revised down to 1.54 billion bushels from 1.738 billion previously 📉. See the ending stocks to use ratio charts below.
🌱 Soybean Futures Follow Corn’s Lead 📈
Soybean futures also rallied on Friday, with the Mar25 contract gaining over 26 cents per bushel, marking its best trade in nearly two months 📅. The USDA reduced its estimate of the 2024 US soybean crop by 95 million bushels. The USDA’s estimate of last year's US national soybean yield was cut by 1 bushel per acre, the largest Nov to Jan cut on record. Additionally, 2024/2025 US soybean ending stocks were lowered to 380 million bushels from 470 million previously 🌾.
🛢️ Crude Oil Prices Surge Following U.S. Sanctions 🇷🇺
Crude oil prices surged on Friday, with WTI crude rising 3.6% to settle at $76.57 per barrel, its highest level since October 🔝. The increase was driven by U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil companies and more than 180 tankers, along with Russian energy officials and executives. These sanctions are expected to push Indian and Chinese refiners to turn to the Middle East for additional oil supplies 🌍.
📊 US Export Sales Underperform 📉
US export sales were disappointing last week. Net corn sales dropped to a marketing year low of 445,000mt (18 million bushels), down 43% from the previous week and 61% from the prior 4-week average 📉. Net soybean sales also fell to a marketing year low, with a total of 288,700mt (11 million bushels), down 40% from the previous week and 72% from the 4-week average 🚫. Net wheat sales also hit a marketing year low, coming in at 111,300mt (4 million bushels), down 21% from the prior week and 70% from the prior 4-week average 📊. See charts below.
🍳 Biden Administration Releases 45Z Tax Credit Guidance 🍴
The Biden administration released updated 45Z tax credit guidance on Friday 📝. The guidance prohibits the use of used cooking oil imports for biofuel production from qualifying for the tax credit under the GREET model. This led March soybean oil futures to jump 7%, reaching their highest level since June 2023. The updated guidance comes after a surge in cheaper used cooking oil imports from China, which had undercut domestic soybean oil prices 💸. While providing clarity, many US biofuel and agricultural groups criticized the guidance for lacking sufficient details on qualifying criteria 🌿.
🌍 Brazil’s Soybean Crop: Conflicting Projections 🌾
Brazil’s soybean crop projections remain in flux 📉. On Friday, Patria Agronegocios revised its estimate downward to 167.9mmt, a reduction from its earlier forecast of 170.4mmt. This revision was due to unfavorable weather impacting crop yields in some regions 🌧️. On the other hand, Safras and Mercado raised its forecast to 173.7mmt, an increase from 171.8mmt. Despite concerns about weather, Mato Grosso is expected to offset some production losses.

Short-Term Biden 45Z Guidance + USDA Preview Jan 10, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌱 Biden Administration to Release 45Z Tax Credit Guidance Today 💼
The Biden administration plans to release short-term 45Z tax credit guidance today 📆. However, the Trump administration will make the final ruling on the tax credit once he takes office 🏛️. The credit was set to become effective on January 1, but the lack of guidance from the US Treasury has threatened the program’s activation 🛑. Biden's administration believes companies can follow the interim guidance, but any final rule will depend on Trump's decisions 💰. Wintry weather in Washington, DC, and the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter may delay the guidance release ⏳.
📊 USDA Monthly Crop Production & WASDE Report Today 📅
USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11am CST 🗓️. The quarterly Grain Stocks report will be released alongside the monthly report 📉. Analysts expect a small reduction in the size of the 2024 US corn and soybean crops 🌽🌱. If realized, this could lead to reduced carryout projections. US corn stocks as of December 1st are expected to be down less than 1% from last year, while soybean stocks are projected to be up 8% and wheat stocks up 10% 🌾. Stay tuned for key updates from the USDA report 📊.
🌧️ Argentina’s Crops Need Moisture ☀️
Argentina's corn and soybean crops are experiencing stress due to hot and dry weather 🌞. According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, rainfall is expected to arrive next week 🌧️, with 2 to 3 inches of rain forecasted for January 16-22 ⏳. About 92% of both soybean and corn crops have been planted, and the much-needed rain will help the crops through their critical stages 🌱. The wheat harvest in Argentina is nearly complete, with an estimated production of 18.6 million metric tons (mmt) 🌾.
🌍 La Niña Officially Arrives 🌦️
La Niña has officially formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean 🌊, though later and weaker than expected. This weather pattern is usually associated with drier conditions across the southern and western US as well as South America 🌎. La Niña increases the risk of drought in agricultural regions of Argentina and Brazil 🌾. However, the weakness of the pattern suggests the impacts may not be as severe this time ⚖️. La Niña is expected to persist through April, with a 60% chance it will fade between March and May, shifting to ENSO-neutral 🌐.
🌧️ Winter Storm Brings Relief to Drought-Stricken Areas 🌀
The USDA weekly drought monitor reported improvements in drought conditions following a winter storm that moved across the Corn Belt last week ❄️. The storm brought much-needed precipitation to areas like eastern Ohio, northern Indiana, northeast Missouri, and northern and eastern Illinois 🌧️. Significant snowfall also helped improve drought conditions in northeast Kansas 🌨️. Despite these improvements, drought remains a concern in several areas, including corn, soybeans, and spring wheat production 🌽🌾.
🔔 Stay Informed & Subscribe!
For more updates on USDA reports, weather forecasts, and global agricultural trends, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and share your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Let’s keep the conversation going! 🌍💬

National Emergency = Tariffs? Grain Price Implications?? Jan 09, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 National Emergency and Tariffs
2:57 USDA Preview
6:45 Argentina Rains Expected
8:01 Brazil Update
9:33 Ethanol Production is Strong
10:31 Flash Sale
📈 US Dollar and Bond Yields Rise Amid Economic Concerns 💵
The US dollar and bond yields continued their upward trend on Wednesday 📈. The 10-year US Treasury note yield rose to 4.73%, its highest level since April, while the dollar index increased 0.28% to 109.00, slightly below last week's two-year high of 109.54 📊. The rise in the dollar and yields followed a CNN report suggesting that Donald Trump might declare a national economic emergency to push forward his broad tariff policies.
🌾 USDA's Crop Report and Grain Stocks Release on Friday 📅
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday 📊. Analysts expect a small reduction in the size of the 2024 US corn and soybean crops, which could lead to reduced carryout projections if realized 🌽🌱. US corn stocks as of December 1st are expected to be down less than 1% year-on-year, while soybean stocks are forecast to be up about 8% and wheat stocks up about 10% 🌾.
🌧️ Argentina Forecasted to Receive Rainfall 🌦️
Argentina is expected to receive substantial rainfall over the next couple of weeks 🌧️. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange predicts that Argentina's key farming region will receive 2 to 3 inches of rain in mid-January 🌧️. This comes after dry conditions linked to La Niña have begun to impact crops. Water reserves in major farming areas have been at critical levels following below-normal rainfall in December. The forecasted rainfall will help crops reach February, when rainfall typically resumes 🌱.
🌞 Dry Conditions Affecting Soybean Crops in Brazil 🇧🇷
Dry conditions are starting to impact soybean crops in southern Brazil 🌞. Parts of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state, have gone 15 to 20 days without significant rainfall 🌾. The state's northwestern region is expected to remain dry for another 12 to 15 days, though the situation is not yet critical 🚨. Meteorologists expect more consistent rainfall by late January, with frequent rains continuing through February, which could improve the crop situation 🌧️. Meanwhile, Central Brazil is forecast to receive heavy rainfall, which may interfere with the early soybean harvest 🌱.
⛽ US Ethanol Production Declines Slightly 📉
US ethanol production decreased last week for the first time in a month 📉. Weekly output dropped by 1% to 1.1 million barrels per day, though it was still 5.1% higher compared to the same week last year 🌽. Ethanol stocks increased by 2.2% compared to the prior week and were up 2.4% from the same week in 2023 📊. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand was up 3.8% from the previous week but down 5.9% from the same week last year 🚗. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is down slightly compared to last year 📉.

Could a "Re-Inflation" Event Boost Grain Prices?? (Corn/Soybeans/Wheat) Jan 08, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Re-Inflation and Grain Prices
4:15 Argentina
7:46 Farmer Sentiment
9:29 Ethanol Exports Spike
11:12 Ag Startup Valuation
12:11 Corn Flash
Stock Market Tumbles Amid Inflation Concerns
The stock market took a hit on Tuesday with the Dow Jones dropping 0.4%, the S&P 500 declining 1.1%, and the Nasdaq falling 1.9%. The continued resilience of the economy has pushed back expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this year. Additionally, concerns are rising that President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans could lead to inflationary pressures.
USDA Optimistic About Argentina’s Soybean Crop
USDA's Argentina office is maintaining a positive outlook for the country’s soybean crop. The crop forecast remains steady at 52 million metric tons (mmt), with an increase in soybean acres and ideal growing conditions contributing to this stable projection. La Niña conditions may pose a risk to yields, but record-high soybean crush of 42 mmt is expected, driven by strong exports and consistent crush rates.
US Farmer Sentiment Declines Slightly in December
US farmer sentiment dropped slightly in December, with the Purdue CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index falling to 136, a 9-point decline from November. Despite this, the index remains at its highest level since August 2021. The slight dip is attributed to farmers' concerns about farm conditions and the agriculture industry, but they remain optimistic about the future, particularly after the presidential election. The potential for a trade war under Trump's administration is a rising concern, with 48% of farmers now believing a trade war is either likely or very likely, up from 42% in November.
US Ethanol Exports Surge in November
US ethanol exports saw a major boost in November, climbing to 187.6 million gallons, a 31% increase from October. 2024 exports are on track to surpass 1.9 billion gallons, which would represent 12% of US ethanol production and set a new record. The surge is largely driven by strong growth in key markets like Canada, India, and the European Union. While exports of dried distillers grains fell 15% in November, they were still 14% higher than the same time last year.
Inari Agriculture’s Valuation Soars
Inari Agriculture, an agtech startup, has seen its valuation skyrocket in 2024. The company raised $144 million in new funding, increasing its valuation by 32% to $2.17 billion. Inari develops wheat, corn, and soybeans that require less fertilizer, water, and land, providing sustainable solutions for farmers. The additional funding will help Inari expand its innovative solutions and strengthen its position in the agriculture tech space.
USDA Reports Flash Sale of Corn
The USDA reported a flash sale of 110,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

"Trade War = Sub $9 Soybeans" - Analysts Jan 07, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Analysts are Bearish Soybeans
2:56 Trump Tariff Talk
4:25 The Funds
7:41 South American Weather
9:34 Grain Shipments
10:38 Bird Flu
Analysts Warn Soybeans Could Fall Below $9 Amid US/China Trade Tensions
Rabobank analysts warn that soybean prices could drop below $9 per bushel if a new US/China trade war erupts. They believe that China would retaliate with its own tariffs on US grains and oilseeds if President-elect Donald Trump proceeds with his aggressive tariff plan. This could give Brazil an even stronger position in the Chinese market, as they would likely benefit from reduced US soybean exports.
Trump Denies Softening Stance on Tariffs
President-elect Trump denied claims that he might adopt a softer approach to tariffs. On Monday, Trump dismissed a Washington Post article suggesting that his tariff plan might focus only on sectors critical to national security. This would have been a significant shift from the tariffs he promised during his presidential campaign.
Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn
The Funds have substantially increased their net-long position in corn futures. According to CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders data, as of Tuesday, December 31, large money managers were net buyers of 58,000 corn contracts. Funds were also net buyers of 29,000 soybean contracts and 12,000 SRW wheat contracts during the week.
Weather Relief for Brazil and Argentina
Extended weather forecasts provide some relief for portions of southern Brazil and northern Argentina, which have been experiencing dry conditions. Both the Euro and GFS models agree that these regions will remain mostly dry through the next 10 days. However, rain chances are expected to return during the 10-16 day period, with some normal rainfall possible between 15-28 days. This has impacted soybean meal futures, which closed lower on Monday and continued trading lower early this morning.
US Export Shipments in Line with Expectations
US corn shipments were in line with expectations last week, with 847,463 metric tons (33 million bushels) inspected for export. However, this was 6.6% lower compared to the previous week and 22% below the same week last year. Soybean shipments came in at 1.3 million metric tons (47 million bushels), down 22% from the prior week but up 23% compared to last year. Wheat shipments exceeded expectations at 412,342 metric tons (15 million bushels), up 22% from the previous week but down 18% from last year.
First US Human Fatality from Bird Flu Confirmed
The US has confirmed its first human fatality from bird flu, a case involving an individual with underlying health conditions over the age of 65 in Louisiana. There have been 61 human bird flu cases nationwide. The majority of cases have occurred among farmworkers in California and Washington who had contact with infected poultry or dairy cows.

Dry Weather in South America: How Many Soybean Bushels are at Risk?? Jan 06, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌞 Argentina's Hot and Dry Weather Impacting Crops 🌱
Hot and dry conditions in Argentina are starting to take a toll on the corn and soybean crops 🌾. While both crops experienced ideal growing conditions during spring thanks to abundant rainfall, high temperatures and reduced rainfall at the end of December are now affecting their development ☀️. The Rosario Grains Exchange reported that some areas received only 30% of their average rainfall in December 🌧️. Despite these challenges, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange stated that the crops are still progressing well due to moisture earlier in 2024. However, Argentina is expected to remain hot and dry over the next two weeks, which could further stress crops 🌞.
🇨🇳 China Adds US Companies to Export Control List 🔒
China has added 28 US companies to its export control list, preventing them from exporting dual-use items (products that can be used for both civilian and military purposes) to China 📉. The exact enforcement details and which products will be classified as dual-use remain unclear 🔍. Additionally, China imposed sanctions on 10 defense firms related to military sales to Taiwan 🇹🇼. These sanctions are expected to have little impact as US military companies do not sell arms or related goods to China 💡. These actions are seen as a response to the anticipated tougher US policies against China under President-elect Donald Trump 🤔.
💵 US Dollar Index Hits Two-Year High 📈
The US dollar index reached its highest level in over two years last week, rising 0.8% against a basket of currencies as the new trading year began 📊. The strength in the dollar is attributed to investor optimism about Donald Trump’s return to the White House, as they expect lower taxes and deregulation to boost economic growth, consumer spending, and business investment 💰. However, analysts caution that the US dollar could face a correction, with only two quarter-point rate cuts expected this year and the potential for negative US economic data 📉.
📉 US Export Sales Disappoint in Latest Report 🌽
US export sales were underwhelming last week, with net corn sales falling below expectations at 777,000 metric tons (31 million bushels) 🌽, a 55% decrease compared to the previous week and 44% below the 4-week average 📊. Mexico was the largest corn buyer for the week 🇲🇽. Net soybean sales also fell short of expectations, declining to a marketing year low of 484,700 metric tons (18 million bushels) 🌱, a 51% drop from the previous week and 67% lower than the 4-week average 📉. China was the largest soybean buyer 🇨🇳. Net wheat sales also missed expectations, coming in at 140,600 metric tons (5 million bushels) 🌾, down 77% from the previous week and 68% from the 4-week average 📉.
⚡ US Renewable Diesel and Biofuel Production Up in October 🔋
US renewable diesel and biofuel production increased in October, with renewable diesel producers using 77% of their capacity, the highest since July 🌱. Biodiesel producers utilized 89% of their capacity, marking the highest level since June 2023 🔋. The increase in production is attributed to improved margins, which were boosted by higher tax credit values and stronger demand 🚗.

How Long Can Soybeans Ignore "Bearish" Fundamentals?? Jan 03, 2025

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 Corn and Soybean Futures Close Higher 📈
Corn and soybean futures saw strong performances on Thursday, with the Mar25 soybean contract breaking above technical resistance on Tuesday and closing higher again on Thursday 🌱. The Mar25 corn contract also posted its best close since late June 📊. However, anecdotal reports suggest that US farmers continue to sell corn and soybeans into the rally as spreads and basis have weakened 🌽. This indicates a more balanced market despite the price gains 📉.
🇧🇷 StoneX Increases Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimate 🌾
StoneX has raised its outlook for Brazil’s soybean crop to 171.4 million metric tons (mmt), a 3.1% increase from its previous estimate 🌱. This revision is driven by expected increases in planted acreage and improved yields 🌞. The forecasted crop would be 14.4% larger than last season's, with Brazilian soybean exports expected to rise by nearly 4% this season to 107mmt 🇧🇷. USDA has the crop pegged at 169mmt, while Conab (Brazil's government agency) estimates it at 166.2mmt. Additionally, StoneX also increased its forecast for Brazil’s corn crop to 128.6mmt 🌽.
🌞 Dry Weather Threatens Parts of Argentina’s Soybean Crop 🇦🇷
Portions of Argentina’s soybean-growing regions are likely to remain dry in the coming weeks 🌞. While areas of Cordoba and San Luis received some rainfall, Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires remain mostly dry 🌾. The forecast calls for continued dry conditions in northern Argentina and southern Brazil, which represent a significant portion of the soybean output 🌍. Southern Brazil contributes about 30% of the country's soybean production, while the dry areas in Argentina account for 20-25% of its soybean output 🌱.
🐄 Cattle Futures Soar Amid Wintry Weather Forecast ❄️
Cattle futures surged on Thursday, reaching life-of-contract highs amid forecasts of wintry weather across the Plains. This rally is driven by a shortage of feeder cattle, as the US beef cowherd has fallen to its lowest level in seven decades 🐄. Resilient consumer demand has also supported cattle prices. However, there are concerns that heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures next week could affect fat cattle performance, as wintry weather last year caused fat cattle weights to decline by 3% 📉.
🌧️ USDA Weekly Drought Monitor: Precipitation Brings Relief 🌧️
The latest USDA drought monitor revealed that much of the Corn Belt received substantial precipitation last week 🌽. Some areas reported rainfall amounts ranging from 200% to 600% above normal 🌧️, leading to improved drought conditions across Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois 🌱. Slight improvements were also observed in Wisconsin and Minnesota 🌾. Precipitation was widespread across the High Plains, but rainfall was not significant enough to warrant substantial drought improvement in those areas 🌾.
📈 Stock Market Soars in 2024 🚀
The S&P 500 had an exceptional year in 2024, gaining 23.3% 📊, marking its second consecutive year with annual gains surpassing 20% 📈. This follows a 24.2% gain in 2023. The Dow Jones rose 12.9% in 2024, while the Nasdaq surged 28.6% 🚀. Several factors contributed to the strong market performance, including the growth of AI technology, Donald Trump's presidential victory, and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a full percentage point.

Fund Traders LOVE Corn - How Aggressive Will They Be in a "Bear Market" Year?? Dec 31, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
📈 Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn Futures 🌽
The Funds have increased their net-long position in the corn market, according to CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders data 📊. As of Tuesday, December 24, large money managers were net buyers of 8,000 corn contracts 🌽. Additionally, funds were net buyers of 3,000 soybean contracts and net sellers of 12,000 SRW wheat contracts for the week 🥖. This shift highlights a more bullish outlook for corn amidst broader market dynamics 📈.
🌾 Corn and Soybean Futures Rally Before Late Selloff 📉
Corn futures rallied yesterday, with the March 2025 corn contract hitting a high of $4.58 per bushel before closing lower 🌽. This was the highest trade since June 25th 📅. The March 2025 soybean contract also rallied but faced trend resistance near $10.04, ultimately closing at $9.92 🌱. While holiday markets tend to be slower, increased farmer selling amid the rally, especially in corn, has played a role in the price action 📉.
🌦️ Dry Weather Forecast for Brazil and Argentina 🌾
Moisture deficits are expected in some areas of Brazil and Argentina over the next two weeks 🌞. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeast Argentina are forecast to receive well-below-normal rainfall 🌧️. In particular, Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, key soybean-growing regions in southern Brazil, are expected to see rainfall less than 35% of normal 🌾. Even drier conditions are projected for parts of northeast Argentina, raising concerns about crop development 🌱.
🚢 US Corn Shipments Decline, Soybean and Wheat Shipments Rise 📦
US corn shipments saw a decline last week, with 878,380 metric tons (35 million bushels) inspected for export, down 23% from the previous week but up 54% from the same week last year 🌽. Soybean shipments were strong at 1.6 million metric tons (58 million bushels), down 12% from the prior week but up 62% compared to the same week last year 🌱. Wheat shipments also increased, reaching 337,685 metric tons (12 million bushels), which was 17% lower than the previous week but 22% higher than last year 🌾.
🏭 ADM Faces Shareholder Pressure Amid Investigation 🧐
ADM is facing shareholder criticism after the company’s stock has fallen by about 30% this year, marking its largest decline since the 2008 financial crisis 📉. Hartwig Fuchs, an ADM shareholder and former executive, has called for the CEO’s resignation, citing failures to address the company’s declining stock value. ADM disclosed an investigation into its nutrition division’s accounting practices in January, and further errors were found in November. Fuchs is urging the CEO to offer clearer explanations to rebuild investor trust 📊.
📦 Flash Sale of Soybean Oil 🌱
The USDA reported a flash sale of soybean oil on Monday 📦. US exporters sold 23,000 metric tons of soybean oil to India for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year 🇮🇳. Since the beginning of the year, 174,000 metric tons of soybean oil have been sold through flash sales 🌾.
🔔 Stay Updated & Subscribe!
For more updates on grain markets, soybean oil sales, and global trade, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and share your thoughts in the comments below! Let’s keep the conversation going! 🌍💬

STRONG Corn Demand + South American Dryness Dec 30, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Export Sales
2:35 Ethanol Production
5:38 Argentina Update / Weather
6:57 Brazil Update / Weather
8:32 Russia Wheat Problems
9:56 US Dollar is Strong
US Corn Exports Surge, Soybean Sales Fall
US corn export sales surged last week, surpassing expectations with 1.7 million metric tons (67 million bushels) of corn sold. This was a 46% increase from the previous week and 39% higher than the 4-week average. Mexico was the largest corn buyer for the week. On the other hand, soybean sales dropped to a marketing year low at 978,400 metric tons (36 million bushels), falling 31% from the previous week and 47% from the 4-week average. China was the largest soybean buyer for the week. Wheat sales exceeded expectations with 612,400 metric tons (23 million bushels) sold, a 34% increase from the previous week. Mexico was the largest wheat buyer.
US Ethanol Production Continues Strong
US ethanol production remained robust last week, with weekly output of 1.11 million barrels per day, showing a 3.4% increase compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 23.07 million barrels, a 2% increase from the prior week. Implied gasoline demand was also up by 1% compared to the previous week and 3% compared to the same week last year. Over the past four weeks, implied US gasoline demand has risen by 3.5% compared to the same period last year.
Argentina’s Corn and Soybean Acreage Adjustments
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has revised its outlook for Argentina’s corn and soybean acres. Corn acreage is now projected at 16.3 million acres, nearly 5% higher than the previous estimate. However, soybean acreage was reduced by 1.1%, now projected at 45.5 million acres, as farmers shift to more profitable crops.
Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimate Increased
The USDA's Brazil attaché office has raised its Brazil soybean production estimate to 165mmt, citing timely planting and favorable early rainfall. The updated estimate is 2.3% higher than last season’s crop. CONAB, Brazil’s government agency, is forecasting the crop at 166.2 mmt, while the USDA projects 169 mmt.
Russia’s Winter Wheat Conditions Deteriorating
The condition of Russia’s winter wheat crops is forecast to worsen in January due to warmer-than-average temperatures and excess precipitation. This has led to weakened sprouts. While crop conditions in southern Russia are expected to be average, soil moisture remains low, posing risks to yields.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Growth and Tariff Concerns
The US dollar is on track to post its strongest annual gain in nearly a decade, rising over 7% this year, according to the Bloomberg Spot Index. The dollar's strength is attributed to the robust US economy, which has reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Additionally, Trump’s tariff threats have boosted expectations for the dollar’s performance, making it a key focus in global ma

Corn Rallies to 6-Month Highs Dec 27, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 Grain and Oilseed Complex Rally on Thursday 📈
The grain and oilseed complex saw a notable rally on Thursday, with the soybean meal market leading the charge, gaining a whopping 4.4% 📊. Soybean futures finished sharply higher, while soybean oil ended marginally lower 🌱. The March 2025 corn contract gained 5 cents per bushel, posting its best close since June 25th 🌽. Wheat futures saw marginal gains, although they remain stuck in a sideways pattern 📉. This rally reflects strong market dynamics in the broader grain complex.
🌞 Argentina’s Dry Weather Forecast 🌾
Argentina is set to experience dry weather in the coming weeks 🌞. Rainfall across the country’s soybean areas is expected to be scattered and well below normal, which could negatively impact the soybean crop 🌱. Temperatures are forecasted to trend above average during the same period 🔥. The recent rally in soybean meal prices is likely due to concerns about Argentina’s soybean crop. While the extended forecast suggests a return to normal rainfall, farmers in Argentina typically complete soybean planting during the first half of January 🌾.
🇨🇳 China’s Efforts to Boost Cereal Grain Consumption 🌾
China is implementing measures to significantly boost cereal grain consumption over the next ten years 📊. As the world’s largest producer of cereal grains, China still relies on corn and wheat imports to feed its 1.4 billion people 🌍. Despite being the second-largest global corn producer, much of China’s corn is used for livestock feed 🐄. To improve grain production and quality, China plans to focus on developing grain varieties suitable for human consumption 🌾. The country also aims to establish stronger international grain standards and build global partnerships 🤝.
🇷🇺 Russian Wheat Exports to Decline Significantly 🌾
Russian wheat exports are set to decline next season, with Russian consulting group IKAR projecting exports to fall to 41 million metric tons (mmt) during the 2025/2026 season, a 6% decrease from the current season 📉. Wheat exports are expected to decline by 5% this season, although Russia will still remain the world’s leading exporter of wheat 🌍. This reduction is attributed to lower yields in winter crops due to a lack of fall moisture 🌧️. Despite a record wheat export in the first half of this season, government-imposed export restrictions will likely drive the decline 📉.
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Data 📊
The latest USDA drought monitor shows limited precipitation across the Corn Belt last week 🌽. Drought conditions have largely remained unchanged, although there was some improvement in southeast Kentucky 📉. Precipitation was also limited across the High Plains, where drought conditions stayed the same. Overall, 6% fewer areas in the region are experiencing drought compared to this time last year 🌱. As of the latest data:
54% of US corn is affected by drought 🌽.
47% of US soybeans are impacted 🌱.
27% of US winter wheat and 33% of spring wheat are experiencing drought 🌾.
37% of cattle are in drought-affected areas 🐄.

Soybean Market has 99 Problems - Big Area of Chart Resistance Dec 24, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Merry Christmas!
1:00 99 Soybean Problems
4:41 Brazil Economic Problems
7:43 Russia Crop Concerns
9:13 Strong Soybean Shipments
10:23 Flash Sales
🌾 Brazilian and Argentine Weather Forecasts Diverge 🌍
Brazil’s weather remains nearly ideal for soybean growth, with above-normal temperatures expected across most of the country in the next two weeks 🌞. Soybean planting in Brazil is complete, and USDA projects that Brazil will account for 40% of global soybean production this year 🌱. In contrast, Argentina’s weather is turning dry, with key soybean areas expected to receive less than half of their normal rainfall over the next two weeks 🌾. While it's too early for a full "crop scare event," the soybean meal market has already taken notice 📉. Argentina is expected to account for only 12% of global soybean production this year 🌍.
💵 Brazil’s Interest Rates Expected to Rise Amid Inflation 📈
Brazil’s benchmark interest rate is projected to rise sharply as inflation continues to run high. Brazilian economists expect the rate to climb to 15% by June 2025 💸. This month, rates were increased by 1% to 12.25%. The depreciation of the Brazilian real has contributed to elevated inflation levels, as investors lose confidence in the currency due to doubts about Brazil’s president’s commitment to improving the economy.
🌾 Russia’s Winter Crops Face Warm Temperatures 🌡️
Russia’s winter crops could be impacted by above-average temperatures, potentially causing sprouts to resume vegetation 🌱. Sovecon, a Russian consulting group, projects that winter wheat crop acres will be about 5% less than last year 📉. This follows earlier reports that over 37% of Russia’s winter crops were rated as poor or yet to sprout, marking the worst crop condition on record 🌾. Additionally, wheat exports are expected to decline by 17% this season, mainly due to lower production.
📦 US Soybean Shipments Surge, Corn and Wheat Sales Mixed 🚢
US soybean shipments were strong last week, with 1.7 million metric tons (64 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export 📦. This was a 3% increase from the previous week and a 56% rise compared to the same week last year 📊. Corn shipments were reported at 1.1 million metric tons (44 million bushels), which was a 1.7% decrease compared to the previous week and an 8.5% decline compared to the same week last year 🌽. Wheat shipments hit a 12-week high, surpassing expectations with 403,719 metric tons (15 million bushels) 🌾. The wheat figure was 34% higher than the previous week but 15% lower than the same week last year.
📦 USDA Reports Flash Sales of Corn and Soybeans 🚢
132,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn were sold to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year 🌽.
132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year 🌱.

DONE DEAL: 10 Billion Dollar Christmas Present for US Farmers Dec 23, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 18k Subs!
0:50 Shutdown Avoided + Direct Payments
4:24 Argentina is Dry
6:30 Biofuels at Risk?
8:00 US/Mexico Corn Dispute
9:20 The Funds
10:05 Cattle on Feed
US Government Shutdown Avoided with New Stopgap Spending Bill
A US government shutdown was avoided over the weekend when President Joe Biden signed a stopgap spending bill that will fund the government through mid-March. The bill includes a one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill and $10 billion in economic aid for US farmers. However, a provision allowing the nationwide, year-round sale of E15 fuel was excluded.
Direct Farm Payments Set to Arrive in 90 Days
The $10 billion in direct payments to US farmers is now a "done deal," with payments set to be distributed within 90 days. The payments will be allocated by crop. The payments are part of the stopgap bill, which also includes significant support for the farming community.
Argentina's Forecast: Dry Conditions for Soybean Areas
Argentina’s soybean areas are expected to receive less than half of their normal rainfall over the next two weeks. Although the forecast is slightly wetter than before, the overall trend remains dry. Temperatures are expected to run above normal, further stressing crops. While Argentina is projected to account for just 12% of global soybean production, it is expected to make up 37% of soybean meal exports.
Trump Plans to Repeal the Inflation Reduction Act
President-elect Donald Trump is planning to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which was passed by the Biden administration in August 2022. The repeal of the IRA could also risk the loss of 45Z tax credits, which support farming practices that reduce emissions and improve soil carbon. Repealing the IRA would likely require Congressional action, and its rollback could impact the clean energy sector.
US Prevails in GMO Corn Trade Dispute with Mexico
The US won a trade dispute with Mexico over its ban of US genetically modified (GMO) corn. A trade panel ruled that Mexico’s ban violated the USMCA trade agreement and was not scientifically based. The ban had previously applied to GMO corn for human consumption, but US producers were concerned that it might be extended to GMO corn used for animal feed.
Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn
Funds reduced their net-long position in corn last week, with large money managers reported as net sellers of 8,000 corn contracts. Soybean and SRW wheat contracts also saw net selling.
USDA’s COF Report
The USDA’s Cattle on Feed report shows that the number of cattle on feed as of December 1 was 12 million head. Placements in November were reported at 96% of year-ago levels. Marketings last month came in at 99% of year-ago levels.

Government Shutdown Inevitable? What Will We Do Without USDA Reports??? Dec 20, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
US House Rejects Trump-Backed Spending Bill
The House rejected a Trump-backed spending bill on Thursday night. The bill required a two-thirds majority but failed by a vote of 174 to 235, with nearly 40 Republicans voting against it. Without a deal, a partial government shutdown is set to begin tonight at midnight.
Soybean Futures Bounce Amid Bearish Market
Soybean futures bounced back on Thursday after hitting fresh lows earlier in the week. The March 2025 contract gained 13 cents on the day after breaking through technical support levels. Despite bearish fundamentals, the bounce maintained momentum overnight, although the contract may face technical resistance near the $9.82 level, a previous area of support. Corn futures also bounced, while wheat remained mostly lackluster in price action.
Drier Conditions Expected for Key Soybean Areas in Argentina
Key soybean areas in Argentina are expected to turn drier in the coming weeks. Recent below-normal precipitation has already affected corn and soybean regions, and the forecast predicts that Argentina’s soybean areas will receive only 46% of normal rainfall over the next two weeks. Argentina is projected to account for 12% of global soybean production this year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s weather forecasts remain favorable, with most key soybean areas expecting above-normal rainfall. CropProphet provides detailed weather maps to track these shifts.
Chicago Wheat Futures Decline for Sixth Consecutive Session
Chicago wheat futures declined for the sixth consecutive session on Thursday, with the March 2025 contract falling by as much as 1.9%. This marks the lowest level since late August. The decline was attributed to a strong US dollar and concerns about ample global wheat supplies. According to the USDA, global wheat production for the season is expected to be the largest on record.
US Soybean Export Sales Increase
US soybean export sales saw an increase last week, with 1.4mmt (52 million bushels) of soybeans sold. This was a 21% increase from the previous week but down 27% from the 4-week average. China was the largest soybean buyer for the week. Corn sales also saw an increase, with 1.2mmt (46 million bushels) sold, up 24% from the prior week. Wheat sales were strong as well, totaling 457,900mt (17 million bushels), a 58% increase from the previous week.
AGCO Shares Plummet Amid Struggling Farm Economy
AGCO’s shares tumbled by as much as 6.1% on Thursday before recovering slightly to close with a 3.8% loss. The decline follows AGCO’s announcement that 2025 net sales are projected to be around $9.6 billion, a significant drop from the $12 billion estimated for this year. The reduction is partly due to AGCO’s divestment of its grain-storage and livestock business, compounded by the struggling farm economy, which is expected to weigh on sales. North American retail sales are projected to decline by 25% next year.
USDA Drought Monitor Data: Conditions Improve in Some Areas
The latest USDA drought monitor data reveals that parts of the Corn Belt received precipitation last week. Drought conditions improved across portions of Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri, but worsened slightly in western Missouri. The High Plains saw scattered precipitation, and conditions improved in northeast Nebraska and southwest Kansas.

Spending Bill DEAD? Direct Farm Payments at Risk?? Dec 19, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Trump Opposes Stopgap US Government Spending Bill
President-elect Donald Trump has voiced strong opposition to the stopgap US government spending bill. In a Fox News interview, Trump stated that he is totally against the bill, although he doesn’t have the power to veto it, as he isn’t president yet. Trump’s influence over Republican lawmakers could still impact the bill’s passage. The spending package, if passed, would fund the government through mid-March. However, if the bill fails, the government could face a partial shutdown as early as Saturday. The bill includes $31 billion in aid for US farmers, which has been a point of contention for many agricultural groups.
Soybean Futures Collapse Amid Bearish Market Sentiment
Soybean futures took a significant hit on Wednesday, with the March 2025 contract losing more than 25 cents per bushel. On a continuation basis, spot futures posted their lowest trade since late August. A breakout below key technical support earlier in the week likely triggered additional selling pressure. Fund traders were estimated to have sold 20,000 contracts, contributing to the downward trend.
Brazil's Soybean Crop Estimate Continues to Rise
Estimates for Brazil’s soybean crop continue to grow. Patria Agronegocios, a Brazilian consulting group, now expects the crop to reach 170.4 million metric tons (mmt), slightly above the USDA's forecast of 169 mmt. Brazil’s corn crop is also projected to be robust at 129.3 mmt, compared to the USDA's estimate of 127 mmt.
US Ethanol Production Strong Again
US ethanol production was strong last week, with output reaching 1.1 million barrels per day, a 2.3% increase from the previous week and 2.7% higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks stood at 22.6 million barrels, slightly lower than the prior week but still up 2.4% year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand was up 1.3% compared to the previous week and 1% higher than last year, reflecting consistent fuel demand. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 2.9% compared to the same period last year.
Biden Administration Awards $116 Million to Fertilizer Industry
The Biden administration has awarded $116 million to the fertilizer industry to help increase competition and lower costs. The funds will be distributed to eight facilities to expand fertilizer production across nine states. This investment comes as agricultural groups and lawmakers have criticized the consolidation of the $140 billion US fertilizer industry.
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates for Third Time in a Row
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, marking its third consecutive rate cut. The new benchmark short-term rate is now 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed signaled that it expects to reduce rates only twice in 2025, as opposed to the previously anticipated four cuts. The news sent stock markets tumbling, with the Dow Jones falling 2.6%, the S&P 500 dropping 3%, and the Nasdaq losing 3.6%.
The USDA reported flash sales on Wednesday:
135,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn were sold to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal were sold to Colombia for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Spending Bill: Direct Farm Payments Inevitable + E15 Surprise Dec 18, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Direct Farm Payments
4:08 Year-Round / Nationwide E15
6:37 Soybean Collapse
8:12 Reduced Russian Wheat Crop
9:39 Brazil Currency
11:22 Flash Sales
Stopgap US Government Spending Bill Includes Aid for Farmers
If approved, the stopgap US government spending bill will include additional economic assistance for farmers. The bill extends the 2018 Farm Bill for one year and provides $10 billion in aid to help farmers cope with challenging markets and severe weather conditions. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill Thursday night, and it will then head to the Senate for approval before the government shutdown deadline on Friday night.
Year-Round E15 Fuel Sales Approved
The stopgap funding bill will allow for the year-round, nationwide sale of E15 fuel. Currently, E15 is available only in a few states during the summer months due to environmental restrictions. The approval is expected to gradually increase ethanol usage, with demand growth contingent on consumer adoption and infrastructure development.
Soybean Futures Hit Fresh Lows
Soybean futures fell to fresh lows overnight, with the March 2025 contract dipping below $9.70 per bushel for the first time. The violation of key technical support levels led to additional selling pressure. The global soybean supply and demand situation is projected to be hugely burdensome due to the expectation of a massive Brazilian crop. While US processors are on track to crush a record amount of soybeans, exports have been weak compared to the last decade.
Sovecon Cuts Russia’s 2025 Wheat Crop Forecast
Sovecon, a Russian consulting group, has reduced its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat crop by 3.7%, bringing the projection down to 78.7 million metric tons (mmt). The reduction is due to poor crop conditions, which are some of the worst seen in decades. If achieved, the 2025 wheat crop would be the smallest since 2021 and below the five-year average of 88.2 mmt.
Brazilian Central Bank Intervenes to Stabilize Real
The Central Bank of Brazil conducted two dollar auctions on Tuesday, totaling over $3.3 billion in an effort to stabilize the real. This marks the fourth intervention in three days, aiming to halt the currency’s steep decline. The real has fallen by more than 20% this year, hitting a record low against the US dollar. On the back of this, Brazil’s central bank hiked interest rates by 1% to 12.25% last week, with two more hikes expected by March.
The USDA reported several flash sales of soybeans and corn on Tuesday:
170,400mt (7 million bushels) of corn were sold to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
187,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to Spain for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

STRONG Soy Crush + Farm Aid Package Still Missing Dec 17, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌱 NOPA Reports November Soybean Crush Data 📊
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its November crush data, showing a decline in US soybean crush for the month. NOPA members processed 193.19 million bushels, a 3.4% decrease from the October record but a 2.2% increase compared to November 2023 🌾. Despite the drop from October, November’s crush was the largest on record for the month and the fourth largest ever for any month. Soybean oil stocks at the end of November increased to 1.08 billion pounds, up 1% from October but down 11% compared to last year’s stocks. Stocks also fell short of the average trade estimate of 1.12 billion pounds 📉.
⚖️ Farm Aid Negotiations Delay Stopgap Funding Bill ⏳
Negotiations over farm aid have delayed the release of the stopgap funding bill. Initially expected on Sunday, the bill's release has been postponed due to disagreements over economic farm assistance and other provisions. Speaker Mike Johnson is facing challenges due to a slim majority and conservative opposition as the government faces a shutdown deadline this Saturday 🏛️. Lawmakers from agriculture states are pushing for a one-year farm bill extension and additional funding for farmers affected by severe weather 🌾. GOP leaders are pushing for $12 billion in economic aid for farmers, and agricultural groups are urging that this be included in the final package 💼. Updates on this are expected to be released as early as today 📰.
💸 Brazilian Real Hits Record Low, Central Bank Takes Action 🇧🇷
The Brazilian real fell to a record low on Monday, leading the central bank to sell $1.63 billion in a dollar spot auction to stabilize the currency 🏦. Despite this effort, the real declined more than 1%, closing at 6.1351 per dollar 🌍. The central bank had also raised interest rates by 1% last week, with plans for two more hikes, but these measures have had limited impact due to rising government spending and inflation concerns 💰. Brazil’s president has shifted blame to the central bank for the country’s fiscal challenges and is defending the government's recent fiscal package 📉.
🌾 Brazilian Soybean Planting Nearly Complete 🇧🇷
Brazilian farmers have nearly completed soybean planting for the 2023/2024 season, with favorable rainfall boosting growing conditions across most of the country 🌧️. However, far southern areas have received excessive precipitation, which could impact those regions' crops 🌱. AgRural, a private agricultural group, is projecting that Brazil’s soybean crop will reach 171.5 million metric tons (mmt) for the season, up from previous forecasts 🌍.
📉 US Soybean Shipments Decline, Corn and Wheat Shipments Increase 🚢
US soybean shipments declined last week, with 1.7 million metric tons (62 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export, a 3.5% drop from the previous week but an 18% increase compared to the same week last year 📦. Corn shipments were strong, totaling 1.1 million metric tons (44 million bushels), up 6.8% from the previous week and 18% higher than the same week last year 🌽. Wheat shipments increased to 298,075 metric tons (11 million bushels), up 20% from the previous week and 4.7% higher than last year’s shipments 🌾.

Industry Groups BEG for Direct Payments: Do Farmers Even Want the Money?? Dec 16, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Direct Payments?
3:46 Drier Argentina
5:23 "The Funds" and Corn
8:31 Brazil Deforestation
9:55 Mexican Cattle Imports Still Suspended
US Corn and Soybean Industry Groups Push for Financial Assistance
US corn and soybean industry groups are urgently seeking financial assistance for farmers. With Congress yet to release or vote on its year-end spending package, farm groups are pressing for legislation to provide economic support due to challenging market conditions and poor weather. Although Congressional leaders have indicated the package does not currently include aid for farmers, both groups are calling for renewed talks on a potential aid package. There may be fresh developments on the FARM Act today.
Argentina's Soybean Areas Face Dry Conditions
Some Argentina soybean areas are likely to experience below-normal rainfall over the next two weeks, particularly in the key northern areas of the Buenos Aires province 🌾. Soybean areas further north are expected to see more normalized rainfall, while Brazil will experience above-normal rainfall across most soybean-producing regions, except for far southern areas, which have already been too wet. These rainfall patterns are crucial for crop development, and further changes could impact overall yield forecasts.
The Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn
Fund traders significantly increased their net-long position in the corn market last week, with the CFTC data showing that as of December 10, large money managers were net buyers of 92,000 corn contracts. This brings the total net-long position to 166,000 contracts, the largest since February 2023. Funds also bought 15,000 soybean contracts and 3,000 SRW wheat contracts on the week, reflecting bullish sentiment in the grain markets.
New Brazilian Laws Threaten Amazon Soy Moratorium
New laws in several Brazilian states, including Mato Grosso and Rondonia, may weaken soybean restrictions in the Amazon, particularly regarding the Amazon soy moratorium. This moratorium, established in 2006, bans companies from buying soybeans produced on deforested land after 2008. Environmental groups are strongly criticizing the new laws, which remove tax incentives for companies that comply with the moratorium.
Mexican Cattle Imports Delayed Until Next Year
Mexican cattle imports are not expected to resume until next year. The USDA reported that shipments are likely to resume incrementally after the New Year, with full resumption expected later in the year 🐄. Imports were halted in November after the detection of New World screwworm in a cow near the Guatemalan border. The USDA is using $165 million from the Commodity Credit Corporation to help eradicate the pest in Mexico and Central America.
USDA Flash Sale of Soybeans
The USDA reported a flash sale of 200,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Will a MONSTER Brazilian Bean Crop Drag Grains Lower?? Dec 13, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Increased
Conab, Brazil’s version of the USDA, has raised its estimate for the 2023/2024 Brazilian soybean crop to 166.2mmt, up slightly from its previous estimate and 12.5% higher than last season. Favorable growing conditions have boosted both planting progress and crop development. As of December 1, 90% of the expected soybean area had been planted. Soybean acres are projected to expand by 2.6%, reaching just over 117 million acres this season.
US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Disappoint
US soybean and corn export sales were disappointing last week, with soybean sales falling well below expectations at 1.2 million metric tons (43 million bushels), a 49% drop from the previous week and 42% below the 4-week average. China was the largest soybean buyer for the week. Similarly, corn sales were also below expectations, at 946,900 metric tons (37 million bushels), a 45% decline from the previous week and 32% below the 4-week average. Colombia was the largest corn buyer. Wheat sales also lagged, totaling 290,200 metric tons (11 million bushels), 23% lower than the previous week.
Canada’s Potential Retaliation Against US Tariffs
Canada is considering export taxes on key commodities, such as uranium, oil, and potash, if President-elect Donald Trump imposes broad tariffs on Canadian imports. Canada is the largest foreign supplier of oil to the US and a key exporter of uranium for US nuclear plants. It also supplies potash, which is crucial for US agriculture.
US Agriculture Sector Discusses Policies with Trump’s Team
The US agriculture sector is engaging with Donald Trump’s team to address concerns over his proposed policies, particularly around tariffs, trade, and immigration. Some agricultural groups are pushing for the expansion of the H-2A visa program to meet labor needs. There’s also a call for China to honor its commitment to purchase $50 billion annually in US agricultural products, as per the Phase One trade agreement. However, concerns remain about Trump’s tariffs, with many industry groups fearing negative impacts on trade and the broader economy. Similar to his first trade war, Trump is expected to provide financial aid to farmers to offset potential losses.
Summit Carbon Solutions Gets Approval for Pipeline
Summit Carbon Solutions has received approval from the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission to build 28 miles of carbon capture pipeline running from the North Dakota border to an ethanol plant in Fergus Falls, Minnesota. Construction is set to begin in 2026, pending finalization of right-of-way agreements with landowners along the route. Summit has already received permits in IA and ND and is reapplying in SD after initial rejection.
USDA Drought Monitor Data
The latest USDA drought monitor shows that drought conditions remain prevalent across the Corn Belt, with limited precipitation last week. Drought conditions worsened in portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, while conditions were mostly unchanged in other areas, including the High Plains. Notably, western Kansas saw an expansion of drought conditions. As of the most recent data:
57% of corn is affected by drought.
51% of soybeans are experiencing drought stress.
29% of winter wheat and 33% of spring wheat face drought.
41% of cattle are impacted by dr

"Brick Wall" of Farmer Selling Caps Corn Rally Dec 12, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Farmer Selling
2:35 China is "Prepared" for Trade War
6:10 Ethanol Production
7:22 Gold/Silver Tariff Implications
8:28 Inflation Update
Corn Futures Encounter Technical Resistance
Corn futures struggled on Wednesday to break through key technical resistance levels. The most heavily traded March 2025 contract stopped just 1 cent short of its October high before reverting lower. Anecdotal reports suggest a substantial amount of farmer selling occurred, which contributed to the price pullback. Despite this, ethanol plants and elevators posted weaker basis bids amid strength in the futures market. Private estimates indicate that fund traders were net buyers of 5,000 contracts on Wednesday after buying 30,000-35,000 contracts on Tuesday. Some estimates suggest large money managers could be net long as much as 150,000 contracts in real time.
Potential Second Trump Trade War: A Bigger Risk for US Grain Exports
Analysts believe that a second trade war with China could be more damaging than the first, especially for US soybean exports. During the first trade war, Chinese soybean purchases from the US dropped 79%, but China still relied on US supplies for certain needs. If a new trade war breaks out, however, China may completely shift to Brazilian soybeans and could bypass US soybeans entirely. Additionally, China is better prepared for another trade war, as it currently holds record soybean stocks. In recent years, China has also sought to reduce its reliance on US corn, approving the import of Brazilian and Argentine corn.
US Ethanol Production Shows Modest Increase
US ethanol production increased slightly last week, with output reaching 1.08 million barrels per day, showing a small increase both from the previous week and compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 22.6 million barrels, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week but a 5.6% increase from the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand rose by 1% compared to the previous week and 4.1% year-over-year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 1.1% compared to the same period last year.
Gold and Silver Premiums Surge Amid Tariff Concerns
Gold and silver premiums surged in New York on Wednesday, with gold futures for February delivery trading up to $60 an ounce above spot prices in London. Silver futures were more than $1 an ounce higher during the session. This spike in premiums was driven by short-covering by banks and funds, with concerns about the potential impact of 10% tariffs on precious metals.
Consumer Prices Rise in November
US consumer prices rose by 2.7% in November on an annual basis, up from 2.6% in October. For the month, inflation climbed 0.3%, marking the largest monthly increase since April. Both figures were in line with expectations. Despite the uptick in inflation, traders are anticipating a 99% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at their meeting next week.

USDA Finally Admits It - Corn Demand is STRONG Dec 11, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 Corn Futures Rally on USDA Report 📊
Corn futures rallied on Tuesday, driven by a friendly USDA report 📈. The nearby March 2025 corn contract gained more than 7 cents per bushel, closing at $4.49, its best close since early October 🌽. The USDA increased its projection for US corn exports by a whopping 150 million bushels, citing a strong sales pace. In addition, the USDA raised its forecast for corn demand via ethanol by 50 million bushels. As a result, the USDA reduced the 24/25 US carryout projection by 200 million bushels, signaling a tighter corn balance sheet 📉.
🌾 USDA's Bearish Soybean Projection Continues 📉
The USDA continues to project a burdensome soybean situation for the current marketing year 🌱. The government left its US soybean balance sheet unchanged, with Brazil's crop estimate remaining at 169 million metric tons (mmt) and Argentina's production estimate slightly increased to 52 mmt 🌍. The global supply and demand situation for soybeans is expected to be the 2nd most bearish on record, only behind the 2018/2019 marketing year. The stocks/use ratio is also expected to remain high, further indicating pressure on the soybean market 📉.
🇨🇳 China Prepares Stimulus Measures Amid US Tariffs 🏦
China is ready to implement stimulus measures to counter the effects of US trade tariffs 💰. In response, China will adopt a more relaxed monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures, marking a shift from its cautious approach of the past 14 years 📊. This policy change reflects China's willingness to take on higher debt levels and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio as it aims to stimulate growth 🏗️. These measures will prioritize consumption and high-tech manufacturing while managing risks. The extent of China’s policy will depend on the timing and scale of new US tariffs 🇺🇸.
💼 Trump's Tariffs May Not Be as Severe as Expected 📉
President-elect Donald Trump's tariffs may not have the far-reaching impact many have anticipated 💼. Leaders from Guggenheim Partners and Franklin Templeton suggest that Trump’s tariffs could be more of a negotiating tactic rather than universal and severe actions 🔄. Experts argue that these targeted tariffs may not trigger a full-scale trade war, and the negative impacts on the global economy are expected to be delayed due to the slow pace of policy implementation in Washington, D.C. 📅.
📊 US Inflation Likely Paused in November 📉
The downward trend in US inflation appears to have paused in November 📊. The CPI report is expected to show an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, up 0.1% from October 📈. On a monthly basis, inflation is anticipated to have risen 0.3%. Traders are still predicting a 77% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by a quarter percentage point at next week’s meeting 🏦. However, some economists are concerned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could keep inflation elevated into 2025, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates as expected 📊.
🔔 Stay Updated & Subscribe!
For more updates on grain markets, global trade, and economic trends, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and leave your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Let’s keep the conversation going! 🌍💬

Canada Threatens Tariff Retaliation: US Ag Exports at Risk?? Dec 10, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Canada Tariff Threat
3:00 USDA Preview
4:50 Brazil Soybean Update
7:59 Russia Back and Forth
9:10 Grain Shipment Update
10:15 Trump and Beef Industry
Canada Warns of Retaliation Against US Tariffs-
Canada is preparing to retaliate if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his plan to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made it clear that Canada will respond if the tariffs are enforced. In 2018, Canada retaliated to Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum by imposing tariffs on bourbon and Harley-Davidsons, which were effective enough to lead to the removal of those tariffs.
USDA Crop Production Report to be Released Today-
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production report today at 11:00am CST. Traders are expecting minimal changes to the US grain balance sheets. Some believe the USDA will increase its demand projections for US corn, particularly through exports and ethanol production, while others think the agency will delay adjustments until January.
Brazilian Soybean Planting Nearing Completion-
Brazilian soybean planting is nearly complete, with 95% of the expected area already planted by last Thursday, up from 91% the previous week.
Russian Wheat Crop Condition: Updated Outlook-
The Russian wheat crop may not be as poor as previously reported, according to a Russian analytical group that leaked data suggesting a high proportion of the crop was either in poor condition or hadn’t sprouted yet. However, Sovecon, a Russian consulting firm, stated that it is too early to assess the crop's condition, as increased temperatures linked to climate change have led to a delayed sprouting of many plants.
US Soybean Shipments Decline, Still Above Last Year-
US soybean shipments declined last week, with 1.6 million metric tons (60 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export, marking a 23% decrease from the previous week. However, shipments were still 62% higher than the same week last year. Corn shipments were strong, at 1 million metric tons (41 million bushels), up 10% from the prior week and 45% higher than the same week last year. Wheat shipments, however, fell below expectations, at 226,513 metric tons (8 million bushels), a 24% drop from the previous week.
US Beef Market Faces Further Constraints from Tariffs and Immigration Reform-
The US beef herd continues to shrink, driven by drought, rising input costs, and market volatility, with herd numbers at their lowest since 1961. This reduction has driven beef prices to record highs, and cattle markets have soared to all-time highs. If Trump imposes tariffs on beef or cattle imports, beef prices could rise even further. Additionally, Trump’s planned immigration reform could increase labor costs for meat packers, potentially impacting the beef market by pushing prices even higher.

2-Day Corn Rally: Is USDA Wrong About Demand?? Dec 09, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 2-Day Corn Rally
2:55 The Funds
4:22 Russia Wheat Update
7:25 Mexico to Negotiate
8:50 World Food Prices
🌽 Corn Futures Rally on Friday 📈
Corn futures rallied on Friday, with the most heavily traded March 2025 contract gaining 5 cents per bushel and posting its best daily close since November 20th. The rally is attributed to strong demand for US corn, particularly from both exports and ethanol production, which have outperformed expectations 🌱. Farmers remain tight holders of their 2024 bushels, and end-users have had to increase basis bids to secure the corn they need 🌾. Private estimates suggest that fund traders were net buyers of 11,000 contracts of corn on Friday 📊.
📊 CFTC Data: Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn 🌽
According to the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data, large money managers were net sellers of 11,000 corn contracts last week 📉, indicating a reduction in their net-long position in the market. However, funds were net buyers of 13,000 soybean contracts 🌱 and net sellers of 10,000 contracts of SRW wheat 🌾 during the same week. This shift in positions may signal potential changes in market dynamics for the coming weeks 🧑‍💼.
🌾 Russian and Ukrainian Wheat Crop Projections 📊
Russia’s 2025 wheat crop is projected to remain unchanged from this year, with an estimated 81.5 million metric tons (mmt), slightly up from this year's 81.3 mmt 🌾. Dry conditions that reduced this year’s crop production also led to a reduction in planting for next year’s crop, with damaged winter wheat likely to be replanted with spring wheat 🌱. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s wheat crop is projected to increase by 6%, with the 2025 crop estimated at 23.7 mmt, up from 22.4 mmt in 2024 📈.
🇲🇽 Mexico Responds to Trump's Tariff Threats 📉
Mexico is seeking to negotiate in response to President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats 🌎. Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada are aimed at curbing illegal immigration and drug trafficking. In response, Mexico has cracked down on drug smuggling from Asia, detained thousands of migrants, and seized a record amount of fentanyl 💊. Additionally, Mexico is planning to adopt an investment screening approach similar to the US, offering incentives for manufacturing investments, including the production of batteries for regional supply chains ⚡.
📈 Global Food Prices Surge to 18-Month High 🌍
Food prices have climbed to their highest level in over a year and a half, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization 📊. The food price index averaged 127.5 points in November, marking a 0.5% increase from October and a 5.7% increase from last year 🌾. The rise is largely driven by an increase in vegetable oil prices, which saw a 7.5% jump from the prior month, the largest increase since July 2022. Cereal prices declined by 2.7% due to a drop in global wheat prices 🌾.

Have Wheat Futures Finally Found a Bottom?? Dec 06, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 Russia’s winter crops are facing significant challenges, with over 37% in poor condition—a record high—and only 31% rated as good, the lowest in 23 years. Due to frosts ❄️ and drought 🌞, some winter crops will need to be replaced with spring crops 🌱. Despite the poor conditions, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister stated the situation isn’t critical. However, the wheat harvest 🍞 is expected to decline by 11% this year.

🌱 Corteva is looking to expand its presence in Brazil's genetically modified (GM) soybean seed 🌾 market, aiming for 20–30% market share with its Enlist E3 seeds by 2030. Although the seeds currently hold a negligible share in Brazil, they dominate nearly two-thirds of the US market 🇺🇸 since their 2019 launch. Challenges in Brazil include competition with Bayer ⚔️ and economic struggles 💸 affecting farmers’ ability to adopt new technologies. Year-to-date, Corteva’s shares 📈 have risen by 29%.

📊 US export sales of soybeans, while down 7% from the previous week, reached 2.3mmt (85M bushels), near the upper range of expectations. China 🇨🇳 was the largest buyer. Corn 🌽 exports exceeded forecasts at 1.7mmt (68M bushels), up 63% from the prior week, with Mexico 🇲🇽 as the largest buyer. Wheat 🌾 sales were 378,200mt (14M bushels), led by Mexican purchases.

🌨️ USDA drought data shows improved conditions in parts of the Corn Belt 🌽, including Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, due to snowfall. Slight improvements were also noted in northwest Minnesota, southeast Missouri, and eastern North Dakota, but the High Plains 🌾 saw no significant changes. Drought remains widespread, affecting 54% of corn, 49% of soybeans, and 40% of cattle areas 🐄.

🛒 The USDA reported a flash sale of 136,000mt (5M bushels) of soybeans to China 🇨🇳 for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Accumulated soybean sales are up 12% compared to the same period last year, signaling robust demand 📈.

🔔 Stay Informed & Subscribe! For more updates on these key developments in global trade, agriculture, and energy, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and leave your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Let’s keep the conversation going! 💬

Analysts are Dumb, There is No Crystal Ball (Grain Marketing) Dec 05, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Stock Market and Grain Marketing Comparison
4:29 Bitcoin 100k
6:02 Mexico Economic Problems
7:46 Mexico GMO Ban?
10:47 Russia Wheat Problems
12:11 Ethanol Production Pace
Stock Market Hits Record Highs
The stock market reached new record highs on Wednesday! The Dow Jones climbed by 0.7%, surpassing the 45,000 mark for the first time. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also set new records, gaining 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively. These gains were driven by a rally in technology stocks, alongside positive remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the US economy is in "remarkably good shape" and that potential risks in the labor market have subsided.
Bitcoin Soars Above $100,000
Bitcoin traded above $100,000 for the first time early this morning! The world's most famous cryptocurrency has rallied more than 40% since Donald Trump's election in early November. Paul Atkins, a well-known crypto advocate, was appointed to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by Trump, sparking optimism in the crypto community. Additionally, significant money flows into Wall Street’s Bitcoin ETFs have added to the momentum.
Mexico's Economic Outlook Deteriorates
Mexico’s economic outlook is deteriorating, with 47% of Mexicans now believing the economy is in bad shape, an increase from 44% in October. The economic slowdown is becoming more apparent after only two months under the new administration. The situation could worsen if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican imports.
Mexico and GM Corn Imports Dispute Nears Resolution
Mexico is optimistic about a resolution to its dispute over genetically modified (GM) corn imports. The US had opposed Mexico’s attempt to limit these imports, claiming that the restrictions violated the USMCA agreement. The dispute resolution is expected by December 14, which could offer clarity on future trade relations between the two countries.
Russia’s Winter Crops Face Record Poor Conditions
Russia’s winter crops are facing the worst conditions on record, with a 37% of the crop in poor condition, the highest percentage ever recorded. In comparison, only 4% of last year’s crop was in poor condition at this time, and the five-year average is 8%. The crop’s quality has significantly dropped, with only 31% rated in good condition, the lowest in 23 years.
US Ethanol Production Declines for the First Time in Over Two Months
US ethanol production dropped by 4.1% last week to 1.07 million barrels per day, the first decline in more than two months. Despite this, production remains 6.1% higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 23 million barrels, a +1% increase compared to the previous week. Implied gasoline demand rose 2.7% compared to last week and 6.5% compared to last year, although US gasoline demand has been slightly down over the las

45Z Confusion! Biofuel Investments at Risk Dec 04, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌿 45Z Tax Credit Guidelines: Conflicting Reports and Uncertainty Ahead 💰
There’s confusion surrounding the 45Z tax credit guidelines, as Reuters and Bloomberg have released conflicting reports regarding their finalization. Reuters suggests that the US Treasury will not issue guidance before President Biden’s term ends due to disagreements between agricultural lobbyists and environmentalists over how the program should align with climate goals 🌎. On the other hand, Bloomberg reports that a Treasury spokesperson confirmed the guidance would be issued before the end of Biden’s term, allowing eligible producers to claim 45Z tax credits for 2025 📅. The biofuel industry is urging lawmakers to extend blender credits, which are set to expire at the end of the year, hoping for clarity before the shift in administration 🍃.
🌾 US Farmer Sentiment Surges After Election 📊
US farmer sentiment hit its highest level in over three years following the presidential election 📈. The Purdue CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose by 30 points in November, reaching 145, its highest since May 2021. The Future Expectations Index jumped by 37 points, reaching 161, its best since April 2021 🌱. Farmers are more optimistic about future regulations and taxes, but concerns remain over agricultural trade, with more than 40% of respondents believing that a trade war with China is likely under the Trump administration 🛒🌏.
🌍 EU Delays Deforestation Law Amid Global Criticism 🌳
The European Union has reached a tentative deal to delay its deforestation law, which aims to limit the import of products tied to deforestation 🌍. The law requires importers to prove their goods, such as soy, beef, and coffee, are not linked to deforested areas 🌱. Brazil, Indonesia, and other major agricultural producers have been critical of the law. The delay will provide time for European businesses and farmers to prepare before the law takes effect. The final adoption of the deal by EU member states and parliament is expected to be a formality by the end of the month 📅.
🏢 ADM Focuses on Cost Reductions Amid Farm Economy Challenges 💼
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) is implementing cost reduction measures as it faces ongoing challenges in the farm economy. The grain trader anticipates declining profits next year due to low crop prices 🌾. Additionally, uncertainty around biofuel regulations and the potential for a trade war between the US and China could weigh on ADM's profitability 📉. The company is also under investigation by the SEC and federal authorities over accounting errors in its Nutrition division 📊, contributing to a 25% drop in its stock this year 💔.
⚡ Biden's Clean Energy Grants Total Over $100 Billion 🌞
President Biden has awarded $100 billion in clean energy grants through the Inflation Reduction Act, his signature climate legislation 🌱. Over 80% of these grants have already been allocated, securing funding for projects like carbon capture, wind power, and solar energy ☀️. These funds aim to support the transition to clean energy, making it challenging for President-elect Donald Trump, a climate skeptic, to cancel them once he takes office 🌍. The grants also include tax incentives for clean energy projects, which would require congressional action to reverse 📜.

Soybean Prices are Down, but it's NOT Trump's Fault Dec 03, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌱 Record Brazilian Soybean Crop Projected 🌾
Private consulting groups are forecasting a record Brazilian soybean crop for the 2023/2024 season. StoneX estimates the crop at 166.2 million metric tons (mmt), with exports reaching 103 mmt, while Celeres projects the crop to hit 170.8 mmt, with exports totaling 107 mmt 🌎. The favorable growing conditions and high-quality inputs are driving this projection, although StoneX highlighted ongoing concerns over dryness in southern Brazil 🌞. As of last Thursday, AgRural reported that 91% of the soybean area has been planted, up from 86% the previous week, and ahead of 85% planted at the same time last year 📈.
🏭 Cargill to Lay Off Thousands Amid Declining Profits 💼
Cargill, the global agricultural trading giant, announced plans to lay off 5% of its workforce, or around 8,200 workers, in response to financial pressures. The layoffs will mostly occur before the end of the year, impacting senior leaders but not top executives 🚶. Cargill’s profits have been hit by record global corn and soybean crops and the declining US cow herd, which is at its lowest level in seven decades 🐄. For fiscal 2024, Cargill reported a $2.48 billion profit, the lowest since 2016 📉.
💼 ADM’s Accounting Scandal Expands 📊
The investigation into ADM's (Archer Daniels Midland) accounting errors has expanded. The SEC launched a civil probe earlier this year after the company revised its earnings twice due to discrepancies in its Nutrition division 💼. ADM is facing accusations of inflating profits through manipulated intersegment transactions, which may have led to securities fraud 💸. The company maintains that the errors didn’t affect overall profits, but ADM’s stock continues to struggle, now valued at about half of its 2022 peak 📉.
📉 Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn Market 🌽
"The Funds" have reduced their net-long position in the corn market, with large money managers selling 23,000 corn contracts last week 📉. Additionally, funds were net sellers of 10,000 contracts of soybeans and 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat 🌾. The decline in corn futures reflects shifting sentiment in the market, and the reduced positions come as part of broader adjustments by institutional investors 📉.
📦 US Soybean Shipments Decline, Still Strong Year-on-Year 📊
US soybean shipments declined slightly last week, with 2.1 million metric tons (77 million bushels) inspected for export, a 1.4% decrease compared to the previous week. However, shipments remain +78% higher compared to the same week last year 🌱. Corn shipments were down 7.2% from the previous week, and wheat shipments decreased by 19%. Despite these declines, both corn and wheat shipments were still higher than last year 📦.
🌾 USDA Reports Flash Soybean Sale 🚢
US exporters reported a flash sale of 134,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year 🇨🇳. While soybean sales started off weak this marketing year, they have since recovered and are now ranked as the sixth best in the last ten years, highlighting strong international demand for US soybeans 🌎.

New BRICS Currency?? Tariff Man Says NO Dec 02, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Trump Proposes Major Tariffs on BRIC Nations and North American Trade
President-elect Donald Trump has proposed 100% tariffs on the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) if they undermine the US dollar. These countries are looking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, which currently dominates global currency exchanges at 58%. With the BRIC nations’ growing economic influence, this move could challenge the dollar’s position in global trade.
Mexico Responds to Trump’s Tariff Threats
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum clarified her conversation with Donald Trump after his threats to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. While Trump claimed Sheinbaum agreed to close Mexico’s southern border to migration, Sheinbaum emphasized that Mexico will continue its policy of keeping the border open and fostering positive bilateral relations. She also expressed confidence that a tariff war between the two countries would not take place.
Brazil’s Soybean Crop Expected to Break Records
Agroconsult, a Brazilian consultancy, has forecasted a record-large soybean crop for the 2023/2024 season, estimating a 172.2 million metric tons (mmt) harvest. This would surpass last year’s record of 162.4 mmt by nearly 11%. USDA estimates a slightly smaller crop of 169 mmt, while Brazil's own Conab predicts 166.1 mmt. Brazil’s soybean exports are also projected to hit a record 103.4 mmt, driven by favorable growing conditions and strong international demand.
US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Soar
US soybean export sales reached a marketing-year high, with 2.5 million metric tons (92 million bushels) sold last week. China remained the largest buyer, reflecting robust demand. Meanwhile, corn sales totaled 1.1 million metric tons (42 million bushels), though they were down 29% from the previous week. Mexico remained the largest buyer for US corn. Wheat sales came in at 366,800 metric tons (13 million bushels), showing a slight decline but still strong on the global stage.
US Ethanol Production Hits Record High
US ethanol production reached a record high last week, with an output of 1.12 million barrels per day. This marked the highest weekly output on record, surpassing the previous peak two weeks ago. Ethanol stocks also increased to 22.87 million barrels, reflecting strong production levels. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand rose 1% compared to the previous week.
Russia Reduces Wheat Export Quota to Combat Inflation
Russia has cut its wheat export quota for the period from mid-February to June, reducing the limit to 11 million metric tons (mmt) — a 62% decrease from last year. This move is designed to control domestic wheat supply amid bad weather and rising inflation, which is currently at 8.5% 📊. Russia will also raise its wheat export duty to 18% starting Wednesday. Despite these measures, Russia is still expected to export 47-52 mmt of wheat this season, retaining its position as the world’s top wheat exporter.
USDA Flash Sales of Soybeans
The USDA reported multiple flash sales of soybeans last week, including 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) to China and 991,700 metric tons (36 million bushels) to unknown destinations.

Mexico Vows Tariff Retaliation - Corn Market Risk?? Nov 27, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Housekeeping Notes
1:08 Mexico Vows Retaliation
3:16 China Buys More Brazilian Soybeans
6:42 Dollar Strength
8:14 Ceasefire
9:27 Consumer Confidence
🚨 Mexico Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs Against the US 🇲🇽💥
Mexico’s President may impose retaliatory tariffs on the US if President-Elect Trump proceeds with his "day-one" tariff agenda 📉. Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico in an effort to curb illegal migration and the flow of drugs across the US-Mexico border 🌎🚨. President Claudia Scheinbaum warned that Mexico would respond to tariffs with additional measures, potentially risking vital trade relationships between the two nations 💼. Mexico has been the top buyer of US corn this year, making such a move significant for both countries.
🌾 China Secures Brazilian Soybeans Before Trump's Return to the White House 🇨🇳
China is ramping up its soybean purchases from Brazil, securing more than half of its soybean needs for February to April at lower prices 🛒. China is also securing around 20% of its needs for May to June ahead of Trump's return to the White House 🏛️. These purchases come despite higher prices for Brazilian soybeans during the December-January period, a time when the US typically dominates the global market 🌾. While China continues to buy US soybeans, outstanding soybean sales for this marketing year are at their lowest levels since 2018 📉.
💵 Dollar Surges on Trump’s Tariff Threats 💰
Donald Trump's tariff threats have boosted the US dollar, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbing 0.7% on Tuesday 📈. This could lead to record highs for the dollar, surpassing levels seen in the 1980s. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso both fell sharply, with the peso down by more than 2%.
🇮🇱 Ceasefire Deal Between Israel and Hezbollah 🇱🇧🕊️
A ceasefire deal has been reached between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militants after months of fighting, which started in October 2023. The deal was brokered by the US and France and went into effect early this morning ⏰. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports the ceasefire, as it allows Israel to focus on Iran's threats while continuing efforts to eliminate Hamas and secure the return of hostages 🕊️.
📊 US Consumer Confidence at Highest Level Since July 2023 🛍️
US consumer confidence has surged to its highest point since July 2023, with the Conference Board’s index rising to 111.7 for November, up 2.1 points from October 📊. This increase reflects a more favorable outlook on the economy and labor market following Trump's election victory 🗳️.
🔔 Stay Updated & Subscribe!
For more updates on these developments, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and leave your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Let's keep the conversation going! 💬

"Tariff Man" Talks More Tariffs - Corn/Soybean Impact?? Nov 26, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Trump’s New Tariff Plans and Their Impact on Trade
Donald Trump is taking bold steps to address migration and drug trade concerns by imposing additional tariffs. Trump plans to add a 10% tariff on imported goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. The tariffs are part of a broader effort to discourage migration and curb drug trafficking. These new tariffs would complement his earlier plans for 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 20% on global imports.
US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve with Rainfall
US winter wheat conditions improved dramatically last week thanks to recent rainfall across the High Plains. The crop is now rated 55% good to excellent, a marked improvement from 49% the prior week and 45% on average. The 17% improvement since the end of October is the best for this time of year since 2018. Only 12% of the crop is rated poor to very poor, down from 23% last month.
Brazil Soybean Planting Near Completion
Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, with 86% of the expected area already planted by last Thursday. This is up from 80% the previous week and significantly ahead of last year’s pace of 74%.
US Halts Mexican Cattle Imports Due to Screwworm Discovery
The US has halted Mexican cattle imports after the discovery of New World screwworm in a cow near the Guatemalan border in Chiapas, Mexico. This parasite causes severe infections and can infest both animals and humans. As Mexico is the largest source of US cattle imports, this halt is expected to dramatically reduce the supply of feeder cattle, sending futures soaring to their highest levels since July. Imports from Mexico, which were up 21.3% this year, are expected to be restricted for at least the next month.
Coffee Futures Surge Amid Supply Concerns
Coffee futures saw a significant surge on Monday, with Arabica coffee climbing 3% to its highest level since 1997. Robusta futures also hit their highest since the 1970s. Concerns over supply shortages in Brazil and Vietnam are driving prices up. While Brazil experienced heavy rains in October, earlier hot and dry conditions have damaged coffee trees, impacting the upcoming season's production. The USDA forecasts Brazil’s coffee stockpiles to fall 26% by the end of the season, exacerbating concerns.
Scott Bessent Expected to Soften Trump’s Economic Policies
Financial markets reacted positively to Scott Bessent’s appointment as US Treasury Secretary. Bessent, the founder of Key Square Group, is expected to advocate for a more gradual use of tariffs and a focus on economic growth through regulation reduction. His appointment has led to a rise in currencies worldwide, with investors anticipating a softer stance on some of Trump's more extreme economic policies.
US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Update
US soybean shipments declined last week, with 2.1 million metric tons (77 million bushels) inspected for export, a 7.3% drop from the previous week. However, they are still +34% higher compared to the same week last year. On the other hand, corn exports soared, reaching 903,049 metric tons (36 million bushels), which is +115% higher than last year. Wheat exports were also strong, with 360,513 metric tons (13 million bushels) sold, a +25% increase from the same week last year.

China, Mexico, and US Corn Export Sales - Could You Imagine???? Nov 25, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🚢 Mexico's Bold Port Expansion Despite Trade Concerns 🌎
Mexico is moving forward with a $2.7 billion port expansion at the Port of Manzanillo, aiming to more than double its capacity 🚢. This expansion will place it among the top 20 container ports globally 🌍. The port handles goods from over 140 countries, focusing on automotive, agricultural, and steel products. However, there are concerns from the US and Canada that Mexico could become a conduit for China to bypass trade restrictions and enter North America 🚫🇨🇳. Donald Trump has indicated that he plans to impose tariffs on imports from China and Mexico, including a 20% tariff on all goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports 📉. Trump has also suggested tariffs of over 200% on imported cars from Mexico 🚗.
🌱 Trump Appoints Brooke Rollins to Lead USDA 🌾
Brooke Rollins has been appointed by Donald Trump to lead the USDA. This surprise choice comes after significant debates among Trump's advisors and agricultural groups 🏛️. Although Rollins has deep ties to Trump and grew up on a farm, she has less agricultural policy experience compared to other candidates. As Secretary of Agriculture, Rollins will play a critical role in shaping agricultural policy, farm subsidies, and trade decisions, including Trump’s proposed tariffs 🏞️🍽️.
🌽 Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn Market 💼
"The Funds" have ramped up their net-long position in the corn market, as large money managers bought 7,000 corn contracts last week 📈. This brings their total net purchases to 463,000 contracts since July. The corn market remains strong amid solid demand, and fund managers continue to stay bullish 🌽. On the other hand, soybeans and SRW wheat saw net selling activity last week 📉.
🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Planting Surges Ahead 🌾
Brazilian soybean planting has made rapid progress, with 83.3% of the expected area already planted 🧑‍🌾, compared to 74.7% last year at this time. Adequate rainfall in recent weeks has accelerated planting, alleviating earlier concerns about dryness 🌧️. With planting well ahead of schedule, Brazil is on track to produce another bumper soybean crop 📊.
🐄 High Cattle On-Feed Numbers Reported 🐄
Cattle on feed in the US remains high, with 12 million head as of November 1, matching pre-report expectations 📉. Placements in October were 105.3% of year-ago levels, reflecting higher placements due to ongoing drought conditions in cattle regions 🐂. Despite this, marketings were lower than expected, with 104.7% of year-ago levels, indicating market stability in the face of strong demand.
🌾 USDA Flash Sale of Soybeans 📦
On Friday, the USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year 🌍. Since November, unknown destinations have bought 1.2 million metric tons (44 million bushels) of US soybeans through flash sales, indicating continued strong demand for US agricultural exports 🌾📦.

John Deere Earnings Confirm Farm RECESSION Nov 22, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
📈 John Deere Surges Despite Lower Earnings 🚜
John Deere's stock soared 8% on Thursday, following better-than-expected earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter. Despite adjusted earnings per share coming in at $4.55 (higher than the expected $3.87), they were still down significantly from last year's $8.26. Revenue for the quarter dropped 28% to $11.1 billion, but still exceeded the forecast of $9.2 billion. Looking ahead, net income for fiscal 2025 is expected to range between $5 billion and $5.5 billion, down from $7.1 billion in fiscal 2024. Deere’s stock is up 9% year-to-date 📊.
🌱 Soybean Futures Face Pressure 🌍
Soybean futures are under pressure, with the Jan25 contract hovering near life-of-contract lows 📉. Recent negative headlines, combined with favorable weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, and global oversupply, are contributing to the bearish sentiment. Additionally, concerns over a potential US-China trade war have added to the uncertainty in the market 🌾.
🌾 US Soybean Export Sales Surge 🌍
US soybean export sales showed improvement last week, surpassing pre-report expectations with 1.9 million metric tons (68 million bushels) sold 🛳️. This represents a +20% increase compared to the previous week, though it is still -7% below the 4-week average. China was the largest buyer, continuing its strong demand for US soybeans 🇨🇳. On the other hand, corn sales and wheat sales saw mixed results, with corn sales up 14% from the prior week but down 40% from the 4-week average 🌽.
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Update 🌾
The USDA released new drought data, showing improvement in many areas of the Corn Belt following last week's rainfall 🌧️. The overall drought conditions have improved significantly, with only 50% of the region still experiencing some form of drought, down from 74% at the end of October 🌽. Oklahoma and parts of the High Plains also saw improvements in drought conditions 🌾.
🇦🇷 Argentina’s Soybean and Corn Planting Progress 🚜
Argentina is seeing rapid progress in its soybean planting, with nearly 36% of the expected 46 million acres already planted 🌱. The good surface moisture has helped speed up the planting process, with early-planted soybeans showing excellent growth 🌿. In addition, corn planting has reached 39.4% of the expected acreage, and 29.3% of the wheat crop has already been harvested 🌾.
🚨 Flash Sales on Soybeans and Meal 🌍
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday, including:
198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China 🇨🇳 for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
135,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations 🌎.
133,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines 🇵🇭.
These sales highlight continued strong demand for US agricultural products 📦.
🔔 Stay Updated & Subscribe!
For more market updates, don't forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and share your thoughts in the COMMENTS below 💬! Let’s keep the conversation going! 🌍📊

China and Brazil Strike "BIG" Ag Deal Nov 21, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Brazil/China Agreement
3:00 Corn Futures are Resilient
6:09 Ethanol Production is STRONG
7:25 Russia Wheat
8:43 Deere Earnings
9:45 Flash Sales
🇨🇳 China Opens Door to Brazilian Sorghum Exports
China has agreed to accept Brazilian sorghum exports, which could significantly impact the US sorghum market. Last year, China imported $1.83 billion worth of sorghum, predominantly from the US 🇺🇸, but with this new deal, Brazil could emerge as a major supplier 🌍. Brazil’s share of the global sorghum market currently stands at just 0.3%, but production has doubled in the last three years to 4.4 million metric tons (mmt) 📊. The move could become even more significant if Trump implements tariffs on China, potentially disrupting US exports to China.
🌽 Resilient Corn Futures Show Strong Demand
Corn futures have remained resilient, with the Dec24 contract showing modest gains despite earlier setbacks 📉. Demand continues to be strong, with export sales exceeding the pace needed to meet USDA projections 📦. Ethanol production is near record levels, contributing to the overall strength of the corn market 🌽. Large money managers are holding a net long position of around 114,000 contracts, suggesting optimism for continued demand. Calendar spreads are also showing strength, reflecting better-than-expected demand.
⛽ US Ethanol Production and Stocks Update
US ethanol production saw a slight dip last week but remains at record highs, averaging 1.11 million barrels per day ⛽. Production is up 6% compared to the same week last year, while ethanol stocks reached 22.56 million barrels, marking a +2.4% increase from the previous week 📉. However, implied gasoline demand showed a -10% decline from the prior week and a -5.9% decrease compared to last year. Despite this, ethanol exports are strong, contributing to record-high production levels.
🌾 Russia Faces Wheat Decline
Russia’s wheat production is expected to fall in the coming year, with farmers shifting to more profitable crops like soybeans and sunflowers 🌻. Frosts and drought have damaged this year’s crop, and production is projected to decline to 83 mmt, down from 92.8 mmt last year 🌾. In addition, increased input costs and export restrictions are further challenging the wheat market.
🚜 John Deere’s Struggles in a Weak Farm Economy
John Deere is set to report its lowest earnings since 2020, with estimated adjusted earnings per share of $3.87 for the fourth quarter, down from $8.26 last year 💼. Deere’s profit forecasts for the next fiscal year could drop to $5.83 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector.
🌱 USDA Flash Sales of Soybeans 🇺🇸
The USDA reported flash sales of soybeans on Wednesday, with 202,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year 🇨🇳. Another 226,200 metric tons (8 million bushels) were sold to unknown destinations.

Trump's New Tariff Man: Negotiation Before Trade War?? Nov 20, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 New Tariff Man
3:05 Xi, Brazil, Farm Trade
4:55 Brazil Crop Estimates
8:23 Russia Update
9:59 US Ethanol Exports
🚨 Major Shifts in Global Trade and Leadership 🚨
🇺🇸 Donald Trump Appoints Howard Lutnick to Lead Commerce Department
Donald Trump has selected Howard Lutnick, the Chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, to head the Commerce Department. Known for his strong stance against the outsourcing of American jobs, Lutnick is expected to play a key role in implementing Trump’s tariff and trade policies. Trump's agenda includes a 10-20% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China 💼🇨🇳. He is also considering raising tariffs on imported cars from Mexico and countries that stop using the US dollar 🚗💰.
🌏 China Urges for Peace and Stability in Global Trade
During the G-20 and APEC summits, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of peace and avoiding extreme trade measures that could disrupt global trade 🚢⚖️. Xi expressed concerns about the economic repercussions of Trump's tariff plans, particularly regarding the potential for other countries to adopt similar policies 🌍. Meanwhile, Brazil is gearing up for agricultural trade deals with China, expected to include fruit, beef, and pork 🌱🍖.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Soybean Industry on Track for Record Crop 📈
Brazil’s soybean crop is expected to hit record levels this season, with projections from the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries estimating a crop size of 167.7 million metric tons (mmt), a 9.4% increase from last year 🌱. Exports are projected to reach an all-time high of 104.1 million metric tons, driven by a boom in soybean crush, which is set to rise 4.6% this season 🌾💥.
⚔️ Ukraine-Russia Conflict Escalates
The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia continues to intensify, with Ukraine striking a Russian military facility after being approved to use US-supplied long-range missiles. In response, Vladimir Putin updated Russia’s nuclear policy, stating that Russia would use nuclear weapons if Ukraine attacks Russian territory with Western-supplied weapons. The situation remains volatile, with Donald Trump suggesting he could push for peace talks once back in the White House 🕊️💣.
🌾 US Ethanol Exports Reach New Heights 🚜
US ethanol exports are on track to set an all-time high, with a record 29.6 million barrels exported in the first eight months of this year 📊. The increase in exports comes as a result of last year’s record corn crop 🌽, leading to a decline in corn prices and making US ethanol more competitive globally 🌍. Production is also at a record pace, with daily production averaging 1.046 million barrels per day ⛽.
🔔 Stay Updated & Subscribe!
Don't forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and drop your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Let’s keep the conversation going on these major global developments 🌎💬!

Western Missiles Used in Attack on Russia: Bullish Grain Prices?? Nov 19, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌍 Global Tensions Rise as US Approves Long-Range Weapons for Ukraine 🚨
In a significant escalation, Moscow has issued a warning after President Joe Biden's approval of Ukraine’s use of US-supplied long-range missiles. The decision comes amid heightened global tensions, as North Korea joins Russia in supporting its stance against Ukraine. 🇷🇺🛑
As Russia intensifies its assault on Ukrainian residential areas 🏚️, Putin reiterates Russia's readiness to use nuclear weapons if necessary ☢️. Experts suggest the timing of this shift may be too late to alter the course of the ongoing war. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have made their first strike into Russian territory using Western-made missiles. ✈️💥
🌱 Brazil's Soybean Planting Surge 🌾
Brazilian farmers are rapidly advancing their soybean planting, with 80% of the expected area already seeded as of last Thursday 📊. Although concerns about reduced rainfall in certain regions persist 🌧️, the crop remains on track. Additionally, Brazil has made significant progress on its first corn crop 🌽, with 86% planted compared to 72% last week.
🌾 Improved US Wheat Conditions 🌾
Rainfall has brought a much-needed boost to winter wheat conditions in the High Plains 🌧️. Crop ratings for wheat have risen to 49% good to excellent, marking the best conditions since 2019 📈. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have seen significant week-over-week improvements 🌾.
🌱 Corteva’s Hybrid Wheat Seed Could Revolutionize Yields 🚜
Corteva announces a game-changing hybrid wheat seed that could boost yields by up to 20% in dry conditions 🌾🌞. This new non-GMO seed technology will initially be rolled out in North America by 2027 and aims to improve wheat production without additional land or resources 🌍.
📉 US Soybean & Wheat Shipments Update 🚢
US soybean exports declined last week 📉, with a -8.4% decrease in shipments compared to the previous week. However, corn exports were on the rise, with shipments up +37% from last year 📊. Wheat shipments were down significantly, falling by -48% compared to last year 🚜. Flash sales were reported with soybean oil, soybeans, and soybean meal sold to international buyers 🛳️.

Why Do "The Funds" Love the Corn Market?? Net-Long 100k!! Nov 18, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
📊 Funds Expand Net-Long Positions in Corn
Last week, large money managers substantially increased their net-long positions in corn:
Net buyers of 97k corn contracts, with a total net long of 100k contracts—the largest since February 2023.
Despite the buying spree, the Dec24 corn contract gained only 12 cents during the reporting week.
Funds were also net buyers of 17k soybean contracts and sellers of 18k SRW wheat contracts. 📉
🌍 China’s Tax Rebate Changes Impact Soybean Oil Prices
China plans to reduce or eliminate export tax rebates on various products, including used cooking oil:
The removal of tax rebates for used cooking oil, widely used in biofuel production, has raised US soybean oil prices.
US soybean oil futures climbed 2% on Friday, reflecting expectations of increased domestic usage.
Chinese used cooking oil imports have been undercutting US farmers, with concerns about fraudulent imports raised earlier this year. These changes will take effect December 1.
🏭 US Soybean Crush Hits Record High
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported an all-time high US soybean crush for October:
199.96 million bushels processed, up 12.8% from September and 5.4% from October 2023.
End-of-month soybean oil stocks rose slightly to 1.07 billion pounds, below the trade estimate of 1.09 billion pounds.
Strong crush numbers signal robust domestic demand for soybeans and soybean oil. 🌱
🌍 Summit Carbon Pipeline Gains Approval in North Dakota
Summit Carbon Solutions has secured regulatory approval for its carbon pipeline route in North Dakota:
The permit was initially denied in 2023 but was granted after Summit made changes to its proposal.
Summit has secured 82% of easements in North Dakota but still lacks eminent domain authority.
The company plans to reapply for a permit in South Dakota this week after a prior denial. 🌎
🚢 Disappointing Export Sales
US export sales were lower across the board last week:
Soybeans: 1.6mmt (57 million bushels), down 24% week-over-week and from the 4-week average. China was the largest buyer.
Corn: 1.3mmt (52 million bushels), down 53% week-over-week and 52% from the 4-week average. Unknown destinations topped the buyers.
Wheat: 380,100mt (14 million bushels), a slight +1% week-over-week but -17% from the 4-week average. South Korea was the largest buyer.
🌾 Rain Boosts US Winter Wheat
Rainfall across US HRW wheat country has improved soil moisture and crop conditions:
Rain was observed in Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri overnight, following substantial rainfall last weekend.
Winter wheat ratings improved last week and are expected to improve further with the recent rains in HRW and SRW wheat areas.

Are Sub-$9 Soybeans Inevitable?? Nov 15, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 Soybean and Wheat Futures Weakening
Soybean futures are moving closer to August lows, with the Jan24 soybean contract dropping 20 cents per bushel on Thursday, hovering around 20 cents from its August low. Factors such as a massive Brazilian crop, the US/China trade tension, and global supply pressures continue to weigh heavily on prices.
Similarly, the Dec24 HRW wheat contract dropped 8 cents and is trading just 9 cents above its August low. However, there is some optimism as US winter wheat conditions are likely to improve with the recent rainfall.
🏛️ Trump Administration Changes
President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The nomination is expected to face Senate challenges, especially given Kennedy’s controversial stances on food safety, environmental policies, and vaccination.
Trump’s tariff proposals continue to attract attention. Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, believes tariffs are a necessary tool for addressing unfair trade but emphasized that their implementation needs to be cautious. Despite this, Dimon was not invited to serve in Trump’s administration.
🔋 US Ethanol Production Hits Record High
The US ethanol production reached a record-high last week, with output hitting 1.11 million barrels per day. This exceeded previous records set earlier this year. Ethanol stocks also saw a slight increase of 5% year-over-year. However, implied gasoline demand saw a slight dip of 1.1% compared to the same week last year.
🌎 Brazil Adjusts Crop Estimates
Brazil's Conab (National Supply Company) has made slight adjustments to its 2024 corn and soybean crop estimates. The forecast for corn production stands at 119.8mmt, a small increase, with soybean production remaining at 166.1mmt. Exports for both crops have been adjusted slightly as well.
💡 Farmers Turning to Generic Chemicals
With a decline in farm income, farmers are increasingly turning to generic pesticides and fungicides to cut costs. This shift could financially impact large chemical companies like Bayer, Syngenta, and Corteva, particularly as patents on active ingredients expire. Bayer's stock reached a 20-year low due to these changes.
🌧️ US Drought Conditions Update
Drought conditions continue to persist across a large portion of the Corn Belt, although some relief came last week with rainfall across Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Drought conditions in Nebraska and Southeast Wisconsin worsened, but significant improvements were noted in the Southern High Plains, including Kansas and Oklahoma.
📦 USDA Flash Sales
US soybean export sales were reported at 176,000mt (6 million bushels) for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This brings the year-to-date soybean export sales up by 17% compared to last year.

Seriously, Is Trump Really THAT BAD for Grain Prices?? Nov 14, 2024

*Correction at the top of the episode- Today's date is Thursday, November 14th.
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🏛️ Impact of Trump's Trade Policies on US Agriculture
US farmers are unsure about the effects of Donald Trump's trade policies on soybean exports and biodiesel production. While tariffs may limit soybean exports to China, they could also lead to increased demand for US soybean oil due to restrictions on imported oils, particularly for biodiesel production. There's optimism that Trump's policies might curb imported biofuel feedstocks from receiving 45Z tax credits, potentially expanding the US crushing capacity. However, higher construction costs due to tariffs may hinder this expansion.
🌽 Flash Sales of Corn
US corn exporters reported two flash sales on Wednesday:
401,357mt (16 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
290,820mt (11 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the same delivery period.
🇦🇷 Argentina's Grain Crop Forecast
Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange raised its forecast for the 2024/2025 soybean crop to 53mmt - 53.5mmt, up from a previous estimate of 52mmt - 53mmt. The increase was due to favorable rainfall in October, improving planting conditions. However, the exchange lowered its corn crop estimate to 50mmt - 51mmt, down from 51mmt - 52mmt due to drought earlier in the year. Additionally, the wheat crop estimate was cut to 18.8mmt, down from 19.5mmt, reflecting the ongoing dry conditions.
🏢 ADM Faces Accounting Troubles
ADM's (Archer Daniels Midland) compliance chief, Ben Bard, is departing amid ongoing accounting issues. These accounting errors were discovered earlier this year and led to an SEC investigation, the resignation of the CFO, and $12 billion in market value losses. Bard was responsible for global compliance and internal audits. The company is still working to resolve these issues.
📊 Consumer Prices in October
US consumer prices rose 0.2% in October, bringing the annual increase to 2.6%, up slightly from 2.4% in September. Housing costs contributed significantly to the increase, rising by 4.9% over the past year. Futures markets are pricing in about an 80% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by another quarter point at its December meeting, despite concerns over potential inflationary pressures from Trump's policies.

Trump EPA Pick: Bad for Biofuels?? Nov 13, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌿 Lee Zeldin Nominated for EPA Head
President-Elect Trump's choice to lead the EPA has sparked controversy. Lee Zeldin, former New York congressman, will focus on deregulation to boost American business and energy dominance. Critics, including environmental groups, argue that Zeldin is unqualified and will harm environmental policies, especially concerning biofuels. His nomination will require Senate confirmation.
📉 ADM Faces Financial Reporting Delays
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) has requested more time to file its third-quarter financial report after accounting errors were discovered. This follows a previous delay earlier this year, marking a rough period for the company, which has seen its stock fall by 29% year-to-date. These errors have affected financial data spanning six years.
🌾 Russia's Grain Production Forecast Includes Occupied Ukrainian Land
Russia's agriculture ministry forecasts a 130 million metric ton (mmt) grain harvest for 2024, a 12% drop from 2023. This includes grain from Ukrainian regions under Russian control. There are concerns that these figures may not reflect the true harvest numbers, as Russia allegedly includes Ukrainian data in a bid to hide its losses from the ongoing conflict.
🌾 US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve
US winter wheat conditions improved due to recent rainfall. As of Sunday, 44% of the crop was rated good to excellent, up from 41% the prior week. Kansas saw the biggest improvement in conditions, along with Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska. The crop is 91% planted, near the average of 93%.
🌱 US Row Crop Harvest Nears Completion
The US corn harvest reached 95% completion, the fastest pace since 2005, while soybeans were 96% harvested. North Carolina and Colorado are the only states running below-average harvest pace. Meanwhile, Louisiana, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota have completed their harvests.
📦 US Exports: Soybean Shipments Decline Slightly
Soybean exports were slightly down last week at 2.3mmt, but still up by 13% compared to the same week last year. Corn shipments also saw a slight decline but were up by 10% versus the same week last year. Wheat shipments were stronger, increasing by 69% from the prior week.
📈 Flash Sales for US Corn
US corn export sales continue to perform well, with a flash sale of 110,500mt (4 million bushels) to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn sales are up 48% compared to last year, reflecting strong international demand.

Can Soybeans Rally Without a South American Weather Problem?? Nov 12, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 South American Crop Prospects
5:55 Drought in Cattle Country
7:48 US Dollar and Commodities
9:41 Bitcoin and Mystery Buyer(s)
🌱 Brazilian Soybean and Corn Planting Ahead of Last Year's Pace
Soybean planting in Brazil is progressing faster than last year. By last Thursday, 67% of the soybean area was planted, compared to 61% at the same time last year. AgRural reports that planting is moving smoothly across most of Brazil, with only a few areas affected by limited rainfall. First corn planting in Brazil is also ahead of schedule at 72% planted, although slightly below last year’s 76%.
🌱 Argentine Soybean Planting
Argentina’s soybean planting is expected to continue at a brisk pace, supported by recent rainfall across the country. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 8% of the anticipated soybean acreage has been planted, with 2.1 million acres planted over the past week. The forecast indicates hot and dry weather conditions in the coming days, which should allow for continued planting progress.
🐄 US Cattle Herd Expansion Impacted by Drought
US cattle herd rebuilding has slowed due to the persistence of drought in key cattle-producing regions. While many expected the herd to expand following spring moisture, 50% of US cattle are currently located in drought-stricken areas. This has kept producers from holding back bred females for expansion. Beef prices are surging to historic highs, driven by limited cattle supplies.
💵 Dollar Strengthens Post-Trump Victory
The US dollar has surged following Donald Trump's presidential victory. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.7% to its highest level since November 2023. Expectations that Trump's trade policies would strengthen the dollar have been a key driver, alongside the quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve last week. The yen and euro both saw declines against the dollar. With Trump’s proposed policies, the dollar could continue to appreciate, especially with trade war concerns.
💰 Bitcoin Sets New Highs, Eyes $100,000
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high on Monday, surpassing $88,000. There is growing speculation that it could hit $100,000 by the end of the year, partly driven by Trump’s victory and the rise in CME futures trading for Bitcoin. Although Trump’s potential focus on cryptocurrencies is uncertain, the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price is a key development for traders in the space.
Conclusion:
The Brazilian and Argentine planting seasons are progressing positively, which may affect global soybean supply. US cattle producers are facing challenges with expanding their herds due to drought, driving beef prices higher. The US Dollar and Bitcoin markets are reacting strongly to Trump’s victory, signaling potential continued volatility and growth in these assets. The agricultural market continues to respond to weather patterns and trade policy developments, with implications for both global grain production and US livestock markets. Stay tuned as these market developments unfold!

USDA Cuts Soybean Crop Estimate: Enough for a Rally?? Nov 11, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here's a summary of the latest developments affecting agriculture and commodities markets:
🌾 USDA Cuts Corn and Soybean Production Estimates
USDA reduced its soybean yield estimate to 51.7 bpa from 53.1 bpa, cutting production by 121 million bushels. This was a surprise to the market. Demand estimates for soybeans were also lowered, particularly for crush and exports, though the reductions in supply were partially offset.
The corn yield estimate was adjusted down slightly to 183.1 bpa from 183.8 bpa, with no change in demand estimates for corn.
🌍 Trump Administration Update
Robert Lighthizer, the former US Trade Representative, has not yet been invited to return to his post in the new administration, despite expectations. He played a key role in the China trade war and the renegotiation of NAFTA. Speculation continues that he may take on a different cabinet role, such as Treasury Secretary or Commerce Secretary. Meanwhile, China's top ambassador to the US has reiterated that tariffs benefit no one, signaling ongoing tensions in trade relations.
🌱 California Climate Rules Update
California's Air Resources Board approved new climate rules that could impact fuel prices significantly. The plan raises emissions reduction targets, supports zero-emission vehicle charging infrastructure, and removes incentives for methane capture on dairy farms. Environmental groups have criticized the move, especially its potential to increase fuel prices by up to 65 cents per gallon.
📊 "The Funds" Shift to Net-Long in Corn
Large money managers (the funds) moved to a net-long position in corn, buying 39,000 contracts. This is the first net-long position in corn since August 2023, a dramatic shift from a record net-short position earlier in the year. Funds were also net buyers of soybeans and SRW wheat.
📉 Moody's Lowers ADM Credit Outlook
Moody's downgraded its credit outlook for ADM due to continued accounting errors. Despite the company maintaining an A2 rating, this downgrade reflects ongoing issues with financial reporting that have already led to significant market value loss for the company.
🌧️ Weekend Precipitation in Hard Red Winter Wheat Areas
Substantial precipitation of 1" to 3" was recorded across hard red winter wheat areas in Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. While this brings some relief, HRW wheat futures remain under technical pressure due to poor crop ratings, exacerbated by dry conditions earlier in the season.
📦 Flash Sales Reported by USDA
US exporters reported several flash sales last Friday, including:
107,000mt of soybeans to China
132,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations
200,490mt of corn to unknown destinations
These sales contribute to strong export performance for both soybeans and corn, further supporting the market.
Conclusion:
USDA's crop adjustments and ongoing political developments add to the market's volatility. Traders are watching closely, as both domestic production and global trade dynamics shift. The Trump administration's potential moves on tariffs and trade, especially with China, could keep agriculture markets in flux. Stay tuned for updates on trade policies and crop conditions as the year progresses! 🌽🌍

Orange Man GOOD? Soy Complex Rallies on Tariff Prospects Nov 08, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌱 Soybean Market Rally
Soybean oil futures have played a significant role in a recent rally in the soybean market. The December bean oil contract gained 4.3% on Thursday after a 3% increase on Wednesday. This surge is attributed to expected policies from a Trump administration that may lead to greater domestic usage of soybean oil, especially with anticipated tariffs on imports of used cooking oil and Brazilian sugar ethanol.
Soybean futures also saw a sharp increase, with the January 2025 contract gaining nearly 23 cents per bushel.
🇨🇳 China's $1.4 Trillion Stimulus Package
China announced a $1.4 trillion stimulus package aimed at local governments facing "hidden" debt strains. This move is seen as an effort to counterbalance the negative impacts of previous stimulus measures, particularly those from the 2008 global financial crisis. Traders had largely anticipated such measures to stabilize the economy.
🌾 USDA Crop Production Estimates
Preliminary estimates from the USDA indicate an increase in corn acreage for next year, projected at 92 million acres, up from 90.7 million this year.
Soybean acreage is forecasted to decrease to 85 million acres from 87.1 million, while wheat plantings are expected to remain stable at 46 million acres.
The combined acreage for corn, soybeans, and wheat is anticipated to fall to a three-year low.
📊 Upcoming USDA Reports
The USDA's monthly Crop Production and WASDE report is set to be released today at 11:00 AM CST. Expectations include marginal downward revisions to corn and soybean yield estimates, which could lead to slight reductions in carryout estimates. Analysts believe demand estimates for corn, particularly for ethanol and exports, might be too low.
🌍 Strong U.S. Export Sales
U.S. corn export sales reached 2.8 million metric tons (109 million bushels), surpassing expectations and marking an 18% increase from the previous week.
Net soybean sales were reported at 2 million metric tons (75 million bushels), down 10% from last week but up 10% from the previous four-week average, with China being the largest buyer. Net wheat sales stood at 374,700 metric tons (14 million bushels), with Mexico as the top buyer.
🌧️ Drought Monitor Update
Recent rainfall has improved drought conditions in many areas of the Corn Belt, especially in Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin. However, drought conditions worsened in parts of Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan.
Current drought status:
Corn: 71%
Soybeans: 63%
Winter Wheat: 57%
Spring Wheat: 41%
Cattle: 54%
📉 Corteva Shares Decline
Shares of Corteva plummeted by as much as 7% to $57.45 due to a lowered earnings outlook, driven by planting issues in Argentina caused by stunt disease and dry weather. Despite the decline, the company's stock is still up about 20% year-to-date.
💵 Federal Reserve Rate Cut
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, a decision that was unanimously approved and anticipated by markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated the cut aims to strengthen the economy and labor market while addressing inflation. There is speculation that another quarter-point cut may come in December, followed by a pause in January to assess the effects of current monetary policies.

Soybeans RALLY on Trump Victory- WTF?? Nov 07, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Election and Grain Markets
3:04 SD Voters Shoot Down Pipeline
4:34 US Dollar / Bitcoin
8:06 Stock Market / Fed
9:34 Ethanol Production
Here's the latest update on the agricultural landscape and market reactions following Donald Trump's return to the presidency! 🇺🇸📈
🌾 Uncertainty in Agricultural Trade
With Donald Trump back in the White House, concerns about a potential trade war with China are causing volatility in the grain markets. Initially, markets plummeted early Wednesday but managed to recover later in the day. During Trump's first term, U.S. soybean shipments to China dropped by approximately 79% due to tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. Trump has recently proposed new tariffs, including a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Despite these concerns, a majority of farmers support Trump, hoping for a change to address high input costs, low prices, and increasing equipment expenses.
🏞️ South Dakota Repeals Carbon Pipeline Law
South Dakota voters have decided to repeal Referred Law 21, which regulated how counties managed carbon pipelines. Approximately 60% of the population supported the repeal. This decision is a setback for Summit Carbon Solutions, which planned to construct a pipeline across the state. Summit plans to reapply for a permit in South Dakota later this month, but the repeal complicates the approval process.
💵 Market Reactions Post-Election
Trump's victory led to a surge in the dollar index, which rose 1.7% to 105.09, marking its highest level since early July. This increase is attributed to expectations around Trump's policies related to immigration, taxes, and tariffs.
Bitcoin also experienced impressive gains, surpassing $75,000 and setting a new all-time high, driven by optimism regarding economic policies.
The stock market reacted positively, with all three major indexes hitting record highs:
Dow Jones: +3.6%
S&P 500: +2.5%
Nasdaq: +3%
U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year yield rising to a four-month high of 4.479%. The VIX, which measures market volatility, fell to a six-week low of 16.27.
📊 Ethanol Production Continues to Rise
U.S. ethanol production increased for the sixth consecutive week, reaching 1.1 million barrels per day, up 2.1% week-on-week and 5% year-over-year.
Ethanol stocks were reported at 22.02 million barrels, reflecting a 1.1% increase compared to the previous week and a 4.8% increase from last year.
Implied gasoline demand fell by 3.6% compared to the previous week but was up 1.5% compared to the same week last year.
Conclusion
The agricultural sector is navigating a complex landscape following the election, with potential trade implications and changing policies that could significantly impact farmers and markets. As developments unfold, staying informed will be crucial for stakeholders in the agricultural and financial sectors! 🌾📉

Trump Wins - Will Soybeans Continue to Lose?? Nov 06, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Trump, Markets, Soybeans
3:28 China and Other Commodities
5:44 Farmer Sentiment
7:27 ADM is in Trouble
8:29 Who is Unknown?
Here's the latest on the market and agricultural landscape following Donald Trump's election victory! 🗳️📊
🇺🇸 Trump Secures the Presidency
Donald Trump has won the U.S. presidency, successfully capturing crucial battleground states including Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
Trump is also leading in Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada as of early Wednesday morning.
Contrary to predictions, he won Iowa by a notable 14 points.
📈 Market Reactions
S&P 500 futures have surged over 2%, reaching fresh all-time highs, indicating strong investor confidence.
The U.S. Dollar has strengthened sharply, while U.S. Treasuries are trading lower.
Bitcoin has also reached new all-time highs overnight.
Despite the election results, soybean prices are lower but not collapsing, showing some resilience.
📉 Commodity Pressure
Other commodities are feeling pressure following Trump's victory, particularly due to concerns about new tariffs on Chinese imports, which could impact demand for commodities such as crude oil, copper, iron ore, steel, and soybeans.
The strengthening dollar further contributes to the downward pressure on these commodity markets.
🌾 US Farmer Sentiment Rises
Surprisingly, U.S. farmer sentiment rose ahead of the election, with Purdue University's CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index climbing to 115 in October, a significant increase from September.
This level hasn't been seen since December 2023. Farmers are cautiously optimistic about improving economic conditions but still express concerns about rising input costs and declining market prices.
Over half of respondents indicated their financial situations are worse than last year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector.
📉 ADM Faces Accounting Issues
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is experiencing ongoing accounting irregularities, prompting revisions of its 2023 results and earlier quarters.
The company's shares dropped 6%, marking their lowest levels since January 2021 and erasing about $1.6 billion in market value. Since January, ADM has lost nearly $12 billion in market value due to these accounting issues, which also led to the resignation of its CFO.
The company is facing difficulties amid low crop prices and declining profits from soybean processing.
🌽 Flash Sale Report
USDA reported a flash sale of corn, with exporters selling 124,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Cumulatively, corn export sales are up 41% compared to the same period last year.
Conclusion
The market landscape is shifting rapidly in light of the election results, with significant implications for commodities, farmer sentiment, and agricultural economics. As developments unfold, staying informed will be crucial for na

Election Volatility Incoming?? + Lower US Soybean Yield Estimate Nov 05, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Election Volatility?
2:39 Lower Soybean Yield Estimate
6:38 US Harvest Update
9:22 Brazil Planting Update
10:54 US Grain Shipments
11:51 Flash Sales
Here’s the latest update on the agricultural market and economic dynamics!
Dollar and Treasury Yield Movements
Increased skepticism regarding a Trump victory has led to a weaker dollar and declining Treasury yields on Monday.
The 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped by up to 12 basis points to 4.26%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by as much as 0.7%.
Polling data indicating a lead for Kamala Harris over Trump in Iowa triggered these market moves. Investors had previously positioned themselves for a Trump victory, expecting his policies to boost economic growth and inflation.
Corn and Soybean Crop Forecasts Adjusted
StoneX has lowered its forecasts for U.S. corn and soybean crops:
Corn yield is now estimated at 183.7 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 184 bpa, with total production estimated at 15.193 billion bushels.
Soybean yield is projected at 52.6 bpa, down from 53.5 bpa, with total production at 4.539 billion bushels.
Harvest Progress
Both corn and soybean harvests are nearing completion and are running ahead of schedule:
Corn: 91% harvested nationally through Sunday, compared to 81% the previous week and 75% on average. This is the fastest harvest since 2012.
Soybeans: 94% harvested nationally, compared to 89% the prior week and 85% on average. This pace ties with 2022, marking the fastest since 2005.
Winter Wheat Conditions
Winter wheat conditions are currently the second worst since 1986, with only 41% rated good to excellent. Despite low ratings, only 23% of the crop is rated poor to very poor. The crop was 87% planted through Sunday, with forecasted rainfall expected to improve conditions.
Brazilian Soybean Planting
Brazilian farmers are making significant progress in soybean planting:
As of last Thursday, 54% of the expected area has been planted, up from 36% the prior week. This pace is the second fastest on record for this time of year.
Export Activity
USDA reported strong soybean shipments last week:
2.2mmt (79mil bushels) of soybeans were inspected for export, down 18% from the previous week but slightly above last year's levels.
Corn shipments totaled 779,078mt (31mil bushels), down 7.3% week-over-week but up 36% from last year.
Wheat shipments fell to 193,523mt (7mil bushels), a 34% decline from the previous week but up 69% year-on-year.
Flash Sales Activity
USDA reported three flash sales on Monday:
150,000 metric tons (6mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000 metric tons (5mil bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
132,000 metric tons (5mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Weekend Polling Data Responsible for Soybean Rally?? Nov 04, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s the latest on the agricultural markets and trade dynamics! 🌾📊
🌍 Trade Tensions and China's Position
With the possibility of a trade war on the horizon, China is strategically positioned to impose tariffs on U.S. farm products.
Since 2018, when China enacted a 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans, corn, and other items, there has been a significant shift toward imports from other countries, especially Brazil.
U.S. soybean imports have decreased from 40% in 2016 to just 18% this year, while Brazil's share has surged to 76%.
However, to secure supplies ahead of the upcoming election, Chinese buyers have increased U.S. soybean imports, which are up 9% year-over-year through September.
Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have expressed intentions to address unfair trade practices by China.
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting Update
Brazilian farmers are ahead of schedule in planting soybeans, with 52.9% of the expected area planted, up from 50.6% last year.
StoneX has raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 166.2 million metric tons (mmt), an increase from its previous estimate of 165.03 mmt.
The first corn crop is projected at 24.9 mmt, and the second at 101.5 mmt, totaling 128.5 mmt for all corn production.
🌧️ Weather Patterns in the US
The U.S. radar is showing active weather this morning with rain moving across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.
Heavy rain totals were reported over the weekend in Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, with additional rainfall expected in Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
The forecast indicates a wet pattern for the central U.S. Corn Belt, which is expected to help improve the situation on the Mississippi River. Projections suggest levels will rise above the "restrictive" zone by next Tuesday.
📈 Funds and Market Position
"The Funds" significantly reduced their net short position in the corn market last week:
As of October 29, large money managers were net buyers of 52,000 corn contracts, marking the smallest net short position since August 2023.
Conversely, funds were net sellers of 4,000 soybean contracts and 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat.
📦 Flash Sales Activity
The USDA reported several flash sales on Friday:
132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
781,322 metric tons (31 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico, with 715,800 metric tons (28 million bushels) for the 2024/2025 marketing year and 65,532 metric tons (3 million bushels) for 2025/2026.
Additionally, 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations and 30,000 metric tons of soybean oil sold to India.
Conclusion
As trade dynamics evolve and weather conditions play a critical role in harvest outcomes, the agricultural market remains sensitive to both domestic and international influences. Keep an eye on these developments as they could significantly impact future pricing and supply chains! 🌱📈

3-Day Soybean Rally: Something or Nothing?? Nov 01, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
📉📈 Soybean Futures Rebound After Decline
Soybean futures have closed higher for two straight sessions following declines ahead of November First Notice Day:
Farmers have been weighing whether to price or roll their November basis contracts, leading to some market volatility.
A bounce after First Notice Day is typical, and the Jan25 contract managed to avoid retesting its August low.
Private estimates suggest that "the funds" remain net short by about 60k contracts as of yesterday’s close.
💧 US Drought Conditions Worsen in the Corn Belt
The USDA's latest drought monitor reveals worsening conditions across the Corn Belt and High Plains:
75% of the Corn Belt is experiencing some level of drought, up from 66% last week.
This is the highest level of drought impact on corn and soybean production since 2012.
In the High Plains, minimal rainfall and above-normal temperatures have expanded drought conditions.
🔢 US Areas Experiencing Drought:
Corn: 81%
Soybeans: 73%
Winter Wheat: 62%
Spring Wheat: 40%
Cattle: 62%
🚜 Strong US Soybean and Corn Export Sales
US export sales for soybeans and corn showed strength last week:
Soybean sales: 2.3mmt (84 million bushels), up 6% from last week and 39% from the prior 4-week average. China was the largest buyer.
Corn sales: 2.3mmt (92 million bushels), despite a 35% weekly decline, were still 7% above the 4-week average, with unknown destinations leading purchases.
Wheat sales: 411,400mt (15 million bushels), down 23% from last week and 14% below the 4-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer.
🌱 Brazilian Crop Outlook: Record Soybean Production Expected
Rabobank and Conab have both released forecasts for Brazil’s soybean crop:
Rabobank: Expects 1.5% increase in planted acres to 116 million acres, with a record crop of 167mmt, up 9.2% from last season.
Conab: Projects a slightly higher 2.8% increase in planted acres.
Despite current dry conditions slowing planting, Rabobank has not revised its production estimate. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn crop is expected to reach 125mmt, a 2.5% increase over last season.
🌞 Argentina’s Soybean Shift Amid Hot and Dry Conditions
The USDA’s office in Argentina estimates a 52mmt soybean crop, slightly higher than the USDA’s 51mmt forecast:
Argentine farmers are shifting from corn to soybeans due to concerns over stunt disease and tighter margins.
With lower production costs, soybeans are seen as a safer bet this season.
Hot and dry conditions through December could impact production, but increased soybean crush is expected due to higher production and imports.
🛢️ Flash Sale of Soybean Cake & Meal
The USDA reported a flash sale of 150,000mt of soybean cake and meal to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year:
So far this year, 926,000mt of soybean cake and meal have been sold for delivery through flash sales.
🏢 US Jobless Claims Fall to Five-Month Low
US jobless claims dropped to 216,000, the lowest since May:
Earlier spikes were driven by Hurricanes Helene and Milton and a strike at Boeing.
Job cuts totaled 55,600 in October, down 24% from September. Despite this, year-to-date cuts are 3.7% higher than the same period last year.

RFK Jr. to Overhaul USDA? What Does this Mean for Farming?? Oct 31, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 RFK Jr USDA Overhaul
5:17 MF Global Anniversary
9:04 Rains are Back
11:45 Ethanol Production is STRONG
12:59 China, Russia, Soybeans
13:48 Biofuel Money
14:34 Flash Sales
🚜 Potential Role of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in USDA
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has stated that if Donald Trump is elected president, he has been promised control of the USDA. Kennedy aims to overhaul U.S. agricultural policy, focusing on benefits for farmers, consumers, and the environment.
His proposals include:
Providing relief to small farmers.
Promoting sustainable and regenerative farming practices.
Banning certain agricultural chemicals.
For more details, watch his promotional video on YouTube.
📅 Anniversary of MF Global's Bankruptcy
Today marks 13 years since MF Global went bankrupt, one of the largest clearing firms in the futures industry. CEO Jon Corzine misused customer funds for risky sovereign debt trades, leading to insolvency. The bankruptcy was the 11th largest in U.S. history, leaving many customers with missing funds.
🌧️ Return of Rains to the US Corn Belt
Rain has returned to the US Corn Belt, with active radar over South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Recent rainfall has helped alleviate dry conditions, but 76% of U.S. corn areas are still experiencing drought.
Projections indicate little improvement in Mississippi River water levels through mid-November.
🌽 Ethanol Production Update
US ethanol production rose for the fifth consecutive week, reaching 1.082 million barrels per day:
This marks a 4% increase compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks are at 21.8 million barrels, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week but an increase year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand is also up by 3.6% compared to the previous week.
🇨🇳 China's Shift Towards Russian Soybeans
China is looking to increase its reliance on Russian soybeans to diversify suppliers and reduce dependency on U.S. imports. Despite Russia producing only 6.8 million metric tons of soybeans in the last season (less than 2% of global production), China imported 99.4 million metric tons of soybeans last season.
🌱 USDA's Biofuel Initiative
The USDA is distributing $239 million to enhance biofuel availability:
$39 million in grants will help construct and improve biofuel infrastructure across 18 states. $200 million is allocated for developing bio-based technologies, aimed at promoting energy independence and providing cleaner fuel options.
📦 Flash Sales Report
USDA reported multiple flash sales:
132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations.
273,048 metric tons (11 million bushels) of corn sold

CME is Now an FCM: Impact for Farmers, Brokers, and Other FCMs?? Oct 30, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 CME is an FCM
4:05 Soybeans and FND
6:30 Corn Belt Rains Return
7:36 China Stimulus Details
8:39 Gold ATH
10:00 Bitcoin Rally
Here's the latest update on the CME's new futures commission merchant, market conditions, and key economic developments! 📈🌾
📊 CME's New Futures Commission Merchant (FCM)
The CME has received approval to establish a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM). This FCM will enable market participants—traders, farmers, funds, etc.—to buy and sell futures directly on the CME marketplace, bypassing traditional brokers like RJO, StoneX, and ADM Investor Services. Critics argue this creates a conflict of interest since the CME would operate as both a futures exchange and a brokerage, potentially leading to excessive control over risk management and self-regulation. Proponents believe this move will streamline processes, lower costs for investors, and eliminate market inefficiencies.
🌱 Soybean Futures Update
First Notice Day for November soybean futures is tomorrow, with farmers needing to price or roll contracts by the close of business today. The days leading up to First Notice often see weakness in both futures and spreads, especially in years with large crops, though a "collapse" has not occurred this year.
🌧️ Weather Forecast for the Corn Belt
Rain is expected to return to the US Corn Belt this week, with light rain already observed in parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. The 5-day Euro model indicates widespread rainfall across much of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Heavier rains are projected during the 5-10 day period, which should help alleviate some drought conditions. There may be minimal improvement to Mississippi River levels around November 9th.
🇨🇳 China's Fiscal Package Proposal
China is considering a fiscal package of over $1.4 trillion to revive its economy:
The package could represent more than 8% of China's GDP.
If Trump wins the presidency, a larger fiscal package might be announced due to anticipated economic challenges.
💰 Gold and Bitcoin Updates
Gold reached an all-time high of $2,766.73 per ounce, buoyed by falling job openings and investor focus on the upcoming US elections.
The precious metal has seen over a 33% increase this year, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin surged to over $73,000, approaching its all-time high of $73,750:
Factors contributing to Bitcoin's rise include expectations of a soft economic landing, stock market gains, increasing demand for Bitcoin ETFs, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Conclusion
As market dynamics shift with the CME's new FCM, farmers are navigating challenges with soybean contracts amid weather fluctuations and economic developments in China. The highs in gold and Bitcoin reflect investor sentiment amidst ongoing global tensions. Keep an eye on these trends

Remember When We Were Gonna Run Out of Soybean Oil?? LOL Oct 29, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here's the latest update on soybean purchases, harvest progress, winter wheat conditions, and export sales! 🌾📉
🥜 Soybean Purchases Decline
Major grain traders like Cargill and Bunge have scaled back soybean purchases due to uncertainty surrounding the 45Z tax credit.
Biodiesel producers, who typically secure over 80% of their feedstocks for the first quarter by mid-October, have only obtained about 10% of those this year.
Delays in guidance from the Treasury Department for the upcoming tax credit, set to begin in January, are causing concern. The outcome of the upcoming election could also influence the future of this subsidy.
🌽 Rapid Harvest Progress
The US corn crop is progressing quickly, with 81% harvested nationally as of Sunday, compared to 65% the previous week and 64% on average. This marks the fastest harvest since 2012.
States that have harvested 85% or more include: Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.
The US soybean harvest is also advanced, with 89% harvested nationally, up from 81% the prior week and 78% on average. This pace is the fastest since 2010.
States with 95% or more harvested include: Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
🌾 Winter Wheat Conditions
Winter wheat conditions are reported as the second worst on record, with only 38% rated as good to excellent, below the 43% average.
This year’s ratings are worse across nearly all states compared to last year, with the exception of California, Kansas, Michigan, and Oregon.
As of Sunday, 80% of the winter wheat crop is planted, up from 73% the previous week but below the 84% average.
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting
Brazilian farmers have made progress in soybean planting, reaching 36% of the expected area as of last Thursday, compared to 40% last year.
Despite lagging behind last year's pace, the area planted last week saw an 18% gain, with Mato Grosso accounting for half of the newly planted acres thanks to consistent rainfall.
52% of Brazil's first corn crop has been planted, slightly down from 53% last year.
🚢 US Export Sales
US soybean shipments declined last week but remain robust:
2.4mmt (88 million bushels) were inspected for export, down 6.1% from the previous week but up 17% year-over-year, with over 60% going to China.
Corn shipments totaled 823,664mt (32 million bushels), a drop of 18% from the previous week but an increase of 52% compared to last year.
Wheat shipments came in at 248,534mt (9 million bushels), down 7.4% from the prior week but up 25% year-over-year.
📦 Flash Sales Update
USDA reported two flash sales of corn on Monday:
124,000mt (5 million bushels) sold to Japan for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the same marketing year.
Since the beginning of October, exporters have sold 5.4mmt (211 million bushels) of corn via flash sales.
Conclusion
As harvests progress rapidly, traders are adapting to changes in soybean purchasing and the implications of potential tax credit changes. Meanwhile, strong export sales are supporting the market amid ongoing challenges related to drought conditions and planting delays. 🌽📈

SD Pipeline Vote: How Does the Farmer Benefit?? Oct 28, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s a rundown of the latest developments regarding the Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline, weather conditions in the Corn Belt, crude oil prices, export sales, and cattle on feed reports! 🌽💧
📜 South Dakota Pipeline Law Vote
South Dakota voters will decide on Referred Law 21 next week.
Support for the law would allow counties to impose surcharges on certain pipeline companies, providing tax relief to property owners affected by pipelines.
Opponents argue the law is deceptive and fails to address eminent domain issues, with concerns that it serves as a buyout for pipeline construction on their land.
Summit Carbon Solutions plans to reapply for a permit regardless of the vote outcome.
🌧️ Rain Expected in the Corn Belt
Rain is forecasted to return to the US Corn Belt starting Wednesday and Thursday.
Areas of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin are expected to see accumulated rainfall.
Widespread rainfall is anticipated during the 5-10 day period, which is crucial as 73% of US corn-growing areas are currently experiencing drought, the highest level since 2012.
Harvesting of corn and soybeans has been rapid due to dry conditions, and river levels on the Mississippi are expected to remain low through November 11th.
🛢️ Crude Oil Futures Decline
Crude oil futures are trading sharply lower, with the Dec24 WTI contract down nearly $4/barrel early in the week.
Recent Israeli attacks have focused on avoiding key Iranian oil infrastructure, maintaining Iran's oil industry operations as normal.
📦 US Export Sales Strong
USDA reported flash sales on Friday:
116,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
136,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico for the same marketing year.
US corn export sales for the current year are 34% ahead of last year's pace, with a modest projected year-over-year increase of 1.4%.
📈 Funds Adjust Positions
Funds have trimmed their net short positions in the corn market:
CFTC data shows that large money managers were net buyers of 20,000 contracts of corn, while they sold 18,000 contracts of soybeans and 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat.
🐄 Cattle on Feed Report
The latest Cattle on Feed report shows that as of October 1, the number of cattle on feed is at 100% of year-ago levels, matching expectations.
September placements were at 98% of year-ago levels, slightly above estimates, likely due to drought limiting grazing conditions.
Marketings last month were 102% of year-ago levels, indicating stable market fundamentals providing ongoing price support.
Conclusion
The upcoming vote on pipeline regulation, expected rainfall in the Corn Belt, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and strong export sales are pivotal factors currently influencing agricultural markets. As farmers deal with rapid harvests and storage challenges, attention remains on the economic and environmental implications of these developments. 🌾📊

Party CANCELED: Soybean Futures and Spreads Rollover Oct 25, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
📉 Soybean Futures Decline
Soybean futures closed lower yesterday, despite reaching fresh two-week highs.
The nearby Nov24 contract peaked at $10.12 per bushel but settled around $9.96.
Downward pressure is continuing this morning, with calendar spreads also reversing after a brief rally.
First Notice Day for Nov24 futures is next Thursday, prompting farmers to price or roll contracts by Wednesday.
🌧️ Drought Conditions in the Corn Belt
USDA's weekly drought monitor shows:
While some areas received rainfall, much of the Corn Belt experienced below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures.
Approximately 88% of the Corn Belt is now facing some level of drought, a significant increase from 11% just three months ago.
Specific drought levels:
Corn: 76%
Soybeans: 68%
Winter Wheat: 58%
Spring Wheat: 37%
Cattle: 59%
🚀 Strong US Export Sales
Last week's export sales were robust:
Net soybean sales reached 2.2mmt (79 million bushels), the second-largest weekly total in over a year, with China as the largest buyer.
Net corn sales were reported at 3.6mmt (142 million bushels), a 62% increase from the previous week, with Mexico as the largest buyer.
Net wheat sales were at 532,900mt (20 million bushels), up 6% from the prior week.
📦 Additional Flash Sales Reported
USDA announced further flash sales on Thursday:
227,600mt (9 million bushels) of corn sold to Japan for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
165,000mt (6 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations.
198,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations.
🌍 Geopolitical Concerns from J.P. Morgan
Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, expressed concerns that World War III may have begun.
He emphasizes that geopolitical risks—including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East—pose a greater threat to the global economy than previously anticipated.
Dimon believes that the potential for nuclear conflict represents a significant danger, surpassing even the risks of climate change.
Conclusion
The agricultural market is facing downward pressure amid a rapidly progressing harvest, significant drought conditions, and robust export sales. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape presents rising concerns that could impact global economic stability. As markets react to these developments, it will be essential for stakeholders to stay informed and agile in their decision-making. 🌾📊

BRICS Grain Exchange? US Exports at Risk?? Oct 24, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 US / Brazil / China
2:42 BRICS Grain Exchange?
5:19 Ethanol Production is STRONG
9:07 Argentina Weather
10:26 Flash Sales
Here’s a summary of the latest developments in international trade, agriculture, and ethanol production! 🌍🌾
🌐 US-Brazil Relations and Trade Concerns
The Biden administration is advising Brazil against joining China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). At the Bloomberg New Economy conference in São Paulo, Biden's trade negotiator emphasized the risks of such a partnership. While some Brazilian leaders view the BRI as an opportunity for new investments, others warn it could harm relations with the US and EU. Brazil's ag minister argues for joining the initiative to counter protectionist measures from the US and EU.
🌾 BRICS Grain Exchange Proposal
Russia is pushing for a BRICS grain exchange to stabilize trade among its member countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). This exchange aims to protect against price volatility and could extend to trading other commodities like gas, metals, and oil. A new cross-border payment system among BRICS nations is also under consideration, which would bypass the US dollar for easier trade.
🌽 US Ethanol Production
US ethanol production reached its second-highest level for this time of year, with a weekly output of 1.08 million barrels per day. This figure is up 3.7% from the previous week and 4.4% year-over-year. Ethanol stocks are reported at 22.2 million barrels, reflecting a slight decrease from the prior week but an increase compared to last year. Implied gasoline demand has also seen an uptick of 4.3% over the last four weeks compared to the same period last year.
🌧️ Rainfall Benefits in Argentina
Argentina has received much-needed rainfall, with major farming areas seeing between 1 to 3.5 inches. This moisture is critical for the upcoming wheat harvest in November and will help resume delayed planting of corn and soybeans.
The Rosario Grain Exchange has revised its estimates, projecting the wheat crop at 19.5 million metric tons and corn production between 51 million to 52 million metric tons.
📦 Flash Sales in US Ag Exports
USDA reported significant flash sales on Wednesday:
130,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
100,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for delivery during the same marketing year.
259,000 metric tons (10 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations.
Conclusion
The global agricultural landscape is shifting with significant implications for trade dynamics, especially concerning US-Brazil relations and the potential impacts of the BRI. Meanwhile, US ethanol production is robust, and Argentina's rainfall is promising for upcoming crops. Flash sales in US ag exports indicate continued interest and demand, particularly from China, despite market uncertainties. 🌾📈

Has the Forthcoming Election Really Impacted the Soybean Market?? Oct 23, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🥜 US Soybean Exports and Market Concerns
US soybean exporters are racing to ship products ahead of a potential DT presidency.
Traders fear that if DT is elected, China could reinstate tariffs on US soybean imports, prompting some Chinese importers to shift to Brazilian soybeans starting January.
This pivot is narrowing the already limited US soybean export window.
Soybean export premiums have reached their highest level in 14 months due to low water levels on the Mississippi River, better demand prospects, and commercial entities potentially being caught off guard.
🌾 Cargill Restructuring and Executive Changes
Two senior executives at Cargill will retire at the end of the year as part of a restructuring effort.
This follows a disappointing fiscal year where less than one-third of its business units met earnings projections, resulting in profits falling to $2.48 billion, the lowest in nearly ten years.
Cargill's profits have been pressured by bumper global crops and a significant decline in US cowherd numbers, now at their lowest in seven decades.
💱 Goldman Sachs' Predictions on Currency Fluctuations
Goldman Sachs predicts that the euro could drop by 10% against the dollar if DT implements tariff hikes and significant domestic tax cuts.
Similarly, the yuan could fall by 12% under the same conditions.
Analysts believe these changes could benefit the US dollar, especially amid strong US earnings and speculation that the Federal Reserve may take a less aggressive stance on future rate cuts.
🌾 Russian Wheat Production Outlook
The 2025 Russian wheat crop is projected to be comparable to this year's production, with estimates ranging from 80 million to 85 million metric tons.
Unfavorable weather conditions are expected to impact next year's crop, with a predicted reduction in wheat acreage and yields.
☀️ Harvesting and Weather Forecast
US corn and soybean harvests are anticipated to wrap up quickly, with a mostly dry forecast for the Corn Belt this week.
Some areas in Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois may see limited rainfall, but overall conditions are expected to remain dry.
Better rain accumulation is forecast for the first week of November, which may benefit the final stages of harvest.
Currently, the Mississippi River is nearly 9 feet below normal, which could further restrict shipping in the coming days.
🚢 USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported a significant flash sale on Tuesday:
US exporters sold 359,500 metric tons (14 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year, with Mexico expected to be the top buyer of US corn this season.
Summary
The agricultural landscape is shifting with increased urgency in US soybean exports, ongoing market dynamics amid political uncertainties, and notable changes within major companies like Cargill. The forecasted weather patterns may affect the remaining harvests, while the Mississippi River's low water levels pose challenges for transportation. As markets react to potential tariffs and shifting demand, US producers are navigating a complex and evolving environment. 🌍🚜

Storage CRUNCH Amid Huge Corn and Soybean Crops Oct 22, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZc...
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s the latest on the corn and soybean harvests, storage challenges, and international market dynamics! 🌽🌱
🚜 Rapid Harvesting and Storage Shortage
Corn and soybean harvests are progressing rapidly, with corn at 65% harvested and soybeans at 81% harvested nationally as of Sunday.
This pace is the second fastest for corn in the last ten years and the fastest for soybeans since 2010.
The quick harvest is leading to storage shortages, as many farmers are still holding last season's grain while waiting for better prices.
Due to limited bin space, some grain handlers are storing corn outside, forcing farmers to sell their crops at near four-year low prices.
USDA projects record national average yields for both crops this year, exacerbating storage issues.
💰 Chinese Economic Stimulus
In an effort to bolster its struggling economy, Chinese banks have cut lending rates:
These rate cuts follow the People's Bank of China's decision to lower rates at the end of September.
The quarter-point reductions are aimed at encouraging borrowing among households and businesses, particularly to support the faltering property market.
If economic growth continues to slow, further rate cuts may be on the horizon.
🌧️ Brazilian Soybean Planting Delays
Brazilian soybean planting is lagging, with only 18% of the expected area planted as of last Thursday, compared to 30% last year.
The slow pace is particularly notable in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top soybean-producing state.
Recent rainfall is expected to facilitate faster planting in the coming weeks.
As of last Thursday, 48% of Brazil’s first corn crop had been planted, up from 46% last year.
📈 Strong Soybean Shipments
US soybean shipments remained robust last week, with 2.4 million metric tons (89 million bushels) inspected for export during the week ending October 17.
This represents a 28% increase from the previous week but is down 7.4% compared to the same week last year.
Corn shipments also saw significant growth at 1 million metric tons (39 million bushels), which was a 97% increase from the previous week and 112% higher than the same week last year.
However, wheat shipments fell below pre-report expectations at 268,375 metric tons (10 million bushels), down 29% from the previous week but up 58% year-on-year.
📉 Flash Sales and Export Activity
USDA reported several flash sales on Monday:
169,926 metric tons (7 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 ma

Who is "Unknown" and Why are they Loading Up on US Corn??? Oct 21, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s the latest update on US agricultural exports, market dynamics, and the broader economic context! 🌾📈
📊 Strong US Export Sales
Net corn sales reached 2.2 million metric tons (88 million bushels), marking the highest level in over a year and a half and exceeding pre-report expectations.
This figure represents an 82% increase from the previous week and a substantial rise from the prior 4-week average.
The largest corn buyer for the week was unknown destinations.
Net soybean sales totaled 1.7 million metric tons (63 million bushels), up 35% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average.
China emerged as the largest buyer for the week.
Net wheat sales were also robust at 504,100 metric tons (19 million bushels), which was at the upper end of expectations.
This print represented a 16% increase from the previous week and a 57% rise from the prior 4-week average, with Mexico being the largest buyer.
🚨 Flash Sales Report
USDA reported several flash sales on Friday:
21,000 metric tons of soybean oil sold to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
125,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for delivery during the same marketing year.
292,800 metric tons (11 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations.
📉 Increased Short Positions by Funds
According to CFTC data, as of October 15, "the Funds" have increased their net short position in the corn market:
They were net sellers of 73,000 contracts, the first instance of net selling in two months.
Net sellers of 22,000 contracts of soybeans, marking the first time since mid-August that they’ve shorted soybean contracts.
Conversely, funds were net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat.
🌧️ Rainfall in Brazil
Rain is forecasted to accumulate in Brazil this week, with:
Light rains occurring in eastern soybean areas early this morning, followed by better coverage later in the week.
Both Euro and GFS models predict above-normal rainfall for many key soybean regions over the next 10 days, except for the far southern parts of the country.
💼 Economic Insights
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is urging global economies to limit fiscal spending:
They project that global public debt will reach $100 trillion by year-end, primarily driven by the US and China.
The IMF warns that if spending does not slow, public debt could equal the size of the global economy in the coming years.
Interest costs on the US national debt have reached their highest level in nearly 30 years:
The US Treasury spent $882 billion on net interest payments in the last fiscal year, averaging about $2.4 billion a day.
This amount represents 3.06% of GDP, the highest ratio since 1996, and has surpassed Defense Department spending for the first time in history.
In Summary
The agricultural export landscape shows promising activity with robust sales, while funds are adjusting their positions amid market volatility. Meanwhile, economic pressures mount as the IMF calls for fiscal restraint and rising interest costs add complexity to the national debt situation. The evolving weather patterns in Brazil also indicate potential impacts on soybean planting and yield, making it a critical period for market watchers. 🌱🌍

Spreads and Gulf Basis are FIRE - Futures to Follow? (Soybeans and Corn) Oct 18, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌊 Improving Basis Bids at the US Gulf
Corn and soybean basis bids at the US Gulf have shown improvement this week.
Soybean basis bids have become notably strong due to:
Improved export demand.
Falling water levels on the Mississippi River.
CIF October soybean barges are currently bid at 112 cents over the Nov24 CBOT contract, marking the strongest level since August 2023.
Corn demand, especially from Mexico, has also improved, contributing to the basis enhancement.
🌧️ Drought Conditions Update
The latest weekly drought monitor data indicates that:
The Corn Belt experienced mostly dry conditions last week, with some rain in the northern regions.
Drought conditions improved in northern Minnesota, but overall, nearly 83% of the Corn Belt is facing some level of drought.
The High Plains are still under a hot and dry weather pattern, with worsening drought conditions from South Dakota to Oklahoma.
Drought Statistics:
Corn: 62%
Soybeans: 54%
Winter Wheat: 52%
Spring Wheat: 32%
Cattle: 52%
🌱 Oversupply of Soybeans Amid Biofuel Production
Despite increased biofuel production (up 400% since 2021), soybean supplies are piling up due to:
Big crop yields and reduced export demand for US soybeans.
An influx of imported used cooking oil used for biofuel production.
Low water levels on the Mississippi River and the unexpected closure of ADM's crush plant in Iowa are further pressuring the soybean market.
🛢️ Ethanol Production Update
US ethanol production increased for the third consecutive week, reaching:
1.04 million barrels per day, a 3.8% increase from the same week last year.
Ethanol stocks reached 22.3 million barrels, the highest for this time of year.
However, implied gasoline demand saw a significant drop of 11% compared to last week, despite being slightly up from the same week last year.
📈 Flash Sales and Export Activity
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday:
197,180 metric tons (8 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
101,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for the same marketing year.
Since the start of the week, exporters have sold a total of 2.3 million metric tons (89 million bushels) of corn through flash sales.
In Summary-
The agricultural landscape is marked by improved basis bids, ongoing drought challenges, and a complex interplay of supply and demand in the soybean and corn markets. As harvest progresses and weather patterns evolve, all eyes will be on how these factors will influence market dynamics in the coming weeks! 🌾📊

"Full-Blown Farm Economy Recession" Sparks More Deere Layoffs Oct 17, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s an engaging overview of the latest developments in agriculture, commodities, and the economic landscape! 🚜📉
📉 Job Cuts at John Deere
John Deere announced job cuts impacting approximately 300 workers in Iowa and Illinois. This decision is driven by:
Reduced demand for farm machinery amid lower grain prices.
Earlier this year, the company had already laid off over 2,000 workers due to similar concerns.
🌽 USDA Reports Major Flash Sale of Corn
In a significant development:
US exporters sold 1.6 million metric tons (64 million bushels) of corn to Mexico.
1.04 million metric tons (41 million bushels) are for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
579,120 metric tons (23 million bushels) for the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Additionally, there were sales of 332,000 metric tons (13 million bushels) of corn and 175,000 metric tons (6 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
These strong sales reflect end users recognizing value in US grains, potentially providing a price floor in the market. 📈
🌧️ Brazilian Weather Pattern Shifts
Brazil is expected to experience:
Above-normal rainfall over the next 10 days, signaling the return of a typical wet pattern.
This shift should facilitate faster soybean planting, which had been delayed due to previous dry conditions.
📉 Soybean Futures Decline Amid Tariff Concerns
Soybean futures took a hit:
The Nov24 soybean contract closed down 1.3% at approximately $9.78 per bushel, marking its lowest level since September 10.
Traders are apprehensive about potential increased tariffs, especially with a likely Trump presidency, which could shift China’s reliance from US soybeans to Brazilian exports.
📈 Bitcoin Surges with Political Shifts
Amidst the political landscape:
Bitcoin soared to around $67,869, its highest since late July.
The surge is attributed to the growing probability of Donald Trump being elected president, which is seen as favorable for the cryptocurrency market.
Year-to-date, Bitcoin is up over 60%, approaching its all-time high of $73,798.
In Summary
These developments highlight the interconnectedness of agriculture, trade policies, and financial markets. With the harvest season underway and potential shifts in global markets, all eyes will be on how these factors unfold in the coming weeks! 🌾💹

Study: Trade War to Hurt US Farmers Oct 16, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
📊 Study Warns: Tariff-Induced Trade War Could Harm US Farmers
A new economic study commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association highlights the potential negative impact of a US-China trade war on US farmers. The study predicts:
US soybean exports to China could plummet by 52%, while corn exports could decline by 84%. 🌱
Brazil and Argentina are poised to benefit by capturing the lost market share as they compete with US exports.
Both the Trump and Harris campaigns are considering tariffs to combat China's alleged unfair trade practices.
🌱 NOPA Releases Record Soybean Crush Data
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that:
The US soybean crush for September reached 177.3 million bushels, marking a record high for the month and up 12.2% from August and 7.2% from September 2023. 🎉
Soybean oil stocks dropped to 1.07 billion pounds, the lowest since November 2014.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Soybean Crop Expected to Soar
According to Conab (Brazil's version of USDA), Brazil's soybean crop is projected to reach a record 166.1 million metric tons, reflecting a 12.7% increase from last season. Despite some delays in planting due to dry conditions, soybean acreage is expected to grow by 2.8%, the smallest increase in six years. 🌾
🚜 US Soybean and Corn Harvests Progressing Rapidly
US farmers are making significant headway in their harvests:
67% of the US soybean crop has been harvested, compared to 47% the prior week and 51% on average.
The US corn crop is 47% harvested, ahead of the 30% the previous week and in line with averages.
States like Arkansas, Iowa, and Minnesota have led the way with over 70% of their soybean crop harvested. 🌽
🌾 US Winter Wheat Planting Slightly Behind Schedule
Winter wheat planting is at 64% nationally, just behind the 66% average. The crop is 35% emerged, showing good progress compared to the 25% from the previous week.
📦 US Soybean and Corn Shipments Disappointing
USDA reported that:
1.6 million metric tons of soybeans were inspected for export, down 3.1% from last week and 25% from the same week last year.
Corn shipments were even lower than expected, at 430,323 metric tons, a drop of 55% from the previous week.
📦 Flash Sales Announced
US exporters secured multiple flash sales on Tuesday:
131,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat were sold to Mexico for the same delivery period.
Stay tuned for more updates as the market continues to evolve! 📈✨

"Hardcore Environmentalist" BASHES Carbon Pipelines (RFK Jr.) Oct 15, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 RFK Jr and Pipelines
2:41 Corn and Soybean Futures Decline
4:05 Fast Harvest Pace
7:34 Brazil Planting Update
8:52 Oil Falls
Here’s a lively summary of the latest happenings in the market and some notable commentary from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.! 🌱📉
🎥 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Critiques Carbon Pipelines
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been vocal against carbon pipelines, stating that they’re "far from green." In a recent YouTube video, he criticized carbon capture and the tax incentives provided to large companies, arguing that these pipelines transfer wealth from working people to wealthy investors and cost taxpayers billions. He raised concerns about safety and eminent domain issues as well. Kennedy, who has endorsed Donald Trump for President, continues to stir conversation around these topics.
🌽 Market Update: Corn & Soybean Futures Decline
Corn and soybean futures took a dip on Monday:
The Dec24 corn contract lost nearly 8 cents per bushel, closing near $4.08, marking its lowest daily close since September 20th. 📉
The Nov24 soybean contract dropped nearly 10 cents, closing below $10 for the first time since late August.
Harvest pressures and USDA projections of burdensome supplies have contributed to this price drop. Large money managers have shifted from covering their net short positions to shorting the market again. 📉
🚜 Rapid US Corn & Soybean Harvest
As of Sunday, the USDA reported that:
30% of the US corn crop and 47% of the US soybean crop had been harvested. 🌾
With another week of dry weather expected, these numbers are likely to rise significantly next week.
Farmers are managing overage bushels due to "big" crops that they cannot store, which could further pressurize the marketplace. Additionally, the Mississippi River is experiencing restrictive water levels again amid ongoing dry weather. 🚢
🇧🇷 Brazil's Slow Soybean Planting
Brazilian soybean planting is lagging behind, with only 8.2% of the expected area planted, compared to 17% at the same time last year. The slow pace is primarily in Mato Grosso, where farmers are waiting for consistent rainfall. 🌧️ AgRural also reported that 42% of Brazil's first corn crop had been planted as of last Thursday, slightly up from 41% last year.
🛢️ OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Forecast
OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for this year and 2025, projecting an increase of 1.9 million barrels per day in 2024, which is 5.3% lower than previous estimates. This adjustment is due to a decline in global fuel use. OPEC plans to restore 2.2 million barrels per day of halted crude production by December. 📉
Stay tuned for more updates as the markets evolve! 🚀✨

Most Bearish Soybean Situation EVER (Literally) Oct 14, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report
The USDA released its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday, and there were no major surprises! 🎉 Here are the highlights:
Corn: The national yield estimate was increased to 183.8 bushels per acre (bpa), while acreage remained unchanged. 🌽
Soybeans: The national yield estimate decreased to 53.1 bpa, with acreage also unchanged. 🫘
Wheat: The carryout estimate was reduced due to lower yields, lower beginning stocks, and increased feed usage. 📉
💵 China's Finance Minister Briefing
China’s Finance Minister held a briefing over the weekend, but it lacked specific details about new stimulus measures. Analysts had hoped for up to $283 billion in new fiscal stimulus, but without specifics, investor concerns are likely to grow, especially following slower-than-expected consumer price increases in September. 📉🤔
🛍️ "The Funds" Trim Net Short Positions
Good news! "The Funds" have drastically reduced their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets. As of October 8:
Corn: Short positions are down to 35k contracts from a record 356k in July. 📉
Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 13k contracts, reducing their short position to 19k contracts from a peak of 183k in July. 🛒
However, funds were net sellers of 7k contracts of SRW wheat last week. 📊
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting Lagging
Brazilian soybean planting is lagging behind last year, with 9.3% of the expected area planted compared to 17.4% at the same time last year. Hot and dry conditions have been a hurdle, but the forecast is looking favorable for rainfall in the coming weeks! ☔🌾 USDA estimates this season's Brazilian soybean crop at 169 million metric tons (mmt).
🌾 Russia's Wheat Export Limits
Russia is trying to limit wheat exports with a proposed price floor and an increase in its export duty by 41%. This move is aimed at curbing exports as domestic inflation soars. Russia recently lowered its estimate for this season's wheat crop to 130 mmt due to unfavorable growing conditions. 📉🚫
🌊 Environmental Concerns in Tampa Bay
Hazardous water from a fertilizer waste facility overflowed into Tampa Bay last week due to excessive rainfall during Hurricane Milton. The overflow involved more than 17,500 gallons of water, but Mosaic reports that the water quality impacts are expected to be minimal. 🌊⚠️
📦 Flash Sales Reported
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday:
Soybeans: 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🛳️
Corn: 577,928 mt (23 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🌽
Stay tuned for more updates, and let's keep the momentum going! 🚀✨

"Both Candidates are Bad for Trade" (Soybeans, China) Oct 11, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌍📈 Trade Concerns, USDA Report, and Global Wheat Supply Woes | US Export Sales and Drought Monitor Updates
🌍 US Chamber of Commerce: Trump and Harris Could Harm Trade
The US Chamber of Commerce voiced concerns that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris would be detrimental for US trade:
Trump’s planned tariffs: A 60% tariff on Chinese imports and 10% on all other imports would raise inflation and hurt US companies that rely on imported components.
Harris’ stance on trade: Harris has been anti-trade in the past, voting against free trade deals due to their lack of attention to climate change. She argues these agreements lead to lost US manufacturing jobs, despite opening global markets for US goods.
🌾 US Export Sales Mostly As Expected
Last week’s US export sales data came in largely as expected:
Corn sales: 1.2mmt (48 million bushels), down 27% from the prior week. Unknown destinations were the largest buyer.
Soybean sales: 1.3mmt (46 million bushels), down 12% week-over-week, with China as the largest buyer.
Wheat sales: 443,600mt (16 million bushels), down 2% from last week but up 31% from the 4-week average, with Mexico as the top buyer. 📉
🌱 USDA Crop Production and WASDE Report Coming
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11:00 AM CST. Here's what traders are watching:
Corn: A potential reduction in US corn carryout due to lower-than-expected September 1st stocks. Strong export and ethanol data could lead to upward adjustments in demand.
Soybeans: Minimal changes are expected in production estimates.
Global balance sheets: Adjustments to both supply and demand are possible given current global conditions.
🌾 Global Wheat Production Declines
Global wheat production is expected to decline this season due to drought conditions in major producing countries like Russia, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and the US:
Russian attacks on grain ships in the Black Sea are further exacerbating supply concerns, driving Chicago wheat futures to their highest levels in four months.
The USDA projects world wheat ending stocks to fall to a nine-year low of 257.2mmt this season. 🌍
💧 US Drought Monitor Update
The USDA’s latest drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt:
Corn: 49% of the crop is experiencing drought conditions.
Soybeans: 43% impacted by drought.
Winter wheat: 47% affected, as well as 29% of spring wheat.
Cattle: 43% of cattle areas are facing drought.
📊 US Economic Data: A Mixed Bag
Thursday’s economic data revealed both positive and negative trends:
CPI: Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month, exceeding expectations of a 0.1% increase. Year-over-year inflation reached 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021.
Jobless claims: Weekly claims hit a 14-month high at 258,000.
#TradeConcerns #USDAReport #WheatProduction #USExportSales #DroughtMonitor #CPIData

Why Will the New Crop US Corn Carryout Fall Below 2bil Bushels?? Oct 10, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 USDA Preview
2:41 Ethanol Production is Strong
5:55 Deere Stock
7:17 Brazil Rain
8:19 Flash Sale
8:57 CPI Preview
🌾 Upcoming USDA Report
Get ready! The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday morning. Traders are expecting minimal changes to this year's US corn and soybean production estimates. However, there’s talk of a potential reduction in the new crop US corn carryout estimate due to lighter-than-expected September 1st stocks. Some traders are speculating upward adjustments to the demand side of the corn balance sheet, thanks to strong export and ethanol data. Keep an eye out for possible changes to global supply and demand balances as well! 📈
🌿 Ethanol Production on the Rise
US ethanol production saw a boost last week, hitting 1.04 million barrels per day—up 2.3% week-over-week and 2.9% compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 22.2 million barrels, down from the previous week but still showing a year-over-year increase. Implied gasoline demand surged, with a 13% increase from last week and 20% from the same week last year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 8.4% compared to the same period last year. 🚗💨
🚜 John Deere's Stock Steady Despite Tariff Threats
John Deere’s stock remains strong, even in the face of tariff threats from Donald Trump, who plans to impose a 200% tariff on machinery sold into the US if Deere moves production to Mexico. Despite the political drama, Deere's stock hit a 52-week high! Analysts believe traders are focusing on the market realities rather than political rhetoric. It seems there’s a 70% chance that tariffs will be implemented regardless of who wins the election! 📈💪
🌧️ Brazil's Soybean Country Receives Scattered Showers
Scattered showers moved across Brazil's soybean regions overnight! The weather models are having a bit of a disagreement on rainfall amounts for the next 5-10 days; the Euro model is notably wetter than the GFS model. Both models, however, suggest widespread rainfall during the 5-10 day period, potentially benefiting soybean planting. 🌧️🇧🇷
🌽 Flash Sale of Corn Reported
USDA reported a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. US corn export commitments are currently the fifth best in the last ten years—looking good out there! 📦
📊 CPI Report Ahead
Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show further moderation in consumer prices, with a projected increase of 0.1% in September and a year-over-year increase of 2.3%. This report could be a significant market mover, influencing the Federal Reserve's next moves on interest rate cuts. The market is currently pricing in an 84% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in November. 📉
Stay tuned for more updates, and let’s keep the momentum going! 🌱✨

HALF of the Soybean Rally Erased in Six Days Oct 09, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌱📉 Soybean Futures Fall | Brazil Rains, China-EU Tariffs, Oil Price Drop, and Biofuel Expansion
📉 Soybean Futures Take a Hit
On Tuesday, Nov24 soybean futures fell nearly 18 cents per bushel, losing half of the gains made over the past five weeks:
Uncertainty around China’s fiscal stimulus appears to be the driving factor behind the sell-off. Traders are glued to any news about stimulus measures.
Adding to the pressure, a wide-open US harvest forecast and expected rains in Brazil next week have kept traders cautious.
🌧️ Rains Set to Return to Brazil Next Week
Both the Euro and GFS weather models are predicting the return of Brazil’s wet season next week, which could accelerate soybean planting:
Brazil’s planting has been delayed due to hot and dry conditions, but the arrival of rain should help ensure proper emergence and reduce the risk of replanting.
The growing season is still young, with November through January being key months for both the market and weather conditions in Brazil. 🌱
🌍 China Retaliates Against EU Tariffs on EVs
In response to the EU’s recent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, China announced a series of retaliatory measures:
Tariffs on gasoline-powered cars with large engines from the EU are under consideration.
Starting Friday, China will impose a 39% tariff on brandy imports from the EU.
🛢️ Oil Prices Drop on Ceasefire Hopes
Oil prices dropped sharply on Tuesday, with WTI crude falling 4.6% to $73.57 per barrel:
A potential ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel contributed to the decline.
While oil prices surged 8% last week due to Middle East tensions, analysts now believe Israel may target military and intelligence sites rather than oil facilities in future strikes.
🏭 Brazil to Build World’s Largest Soy Oil-Based Biofuel Plant
Brazilian energy company Grupo Potencial will invest $109 million to create the world’s largest soy oil-based biofuel plant:
The plant will increase annual biodiesel production capacity by 80% to 428 million gallons.
Construction will begin in 2025 and is expected to be completed by 2026.
This investment comes as Brazil's government prepares to sign a bill increasing the biodiesel blend in diesel fuel. 🔋
🚜 USDA Reports Flash Sale of Soybeans
The USDA reported a flash sale of 166,000mt (6 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year:
Despite the sale, US soybean export commitments for the current marketing year are the third worst in the last ten years.
👇 Stay Connected!
Make sure to subscribe for more updates on global trade, crop markets, and energy trends. What do you think of Brazil's biofuel expansion and the impact of China’s trade retaliation? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 💬
#SoybeanFutures #BrazilRains #ChinaEUTariffs #OilPriceDrop #BiofuelExpansion #USDAFlashSales #AgNews

Soybeans Tumble: China Stimulus Lacks Details Oct 08, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 Brazil's Soybean Planting Lagging Behind
Brazilian soybean planting is facing challenges due to dry conditions, with only 4.5% of the expected area planted as of last Thursday. This is a significant drop from 10% during the same week last year. Mato Grosso, the country's top soybean-producing state, is experiencing its slowest planting pace in nine years due to hot and dry weather.
🇺🇸 US Soybean Harvest on the Fast Track
The US soybean harvest is making swift progress, reaching 47% completion nationally through Sunday, compared to just 26% the prior week and 34% on average. This harvest pace marks the second fastest in the last ten years! Notable states that have crossed the 50% mark include Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, and Minnesota. Meanwhile, corn harvest stands at 30%, slightly ahead of average at this time of year. Current corn conditions remain steady at 64% rated good to excellent. 🌽
🌾 Winter Wheat Planting Slightly Behind
Winter wheat planting in the US is 51% complete, which is slightly behind the average of 52%. Analysts had projected it to be 54% complete by now. States like Colorado and South Dakota have made notable progress with more than 60% of their crops planted.
🎯 Escalating Tensions in Ukraine
Recent Russian missile strikes have damaged two vessels carrying Ukrainian grain in the Odesa region. One attack resulted in the death of one individual and injuries to five others. Since the onset of the conflict in 2022, Russia has damaged a total of 20 civilian vessels, raising serious concerns over trade in the Black Sea. Meanwhile, Russia's Agriculture Minister has called for rain as the winter wheat crop faces significant drought challenges.
📦 US Soybean Shipments Surge
US soybean shipments saw a remarkable boost last week, with 1.4 million metric tons (53 million bushels) inspected for export, marking a 110% increase from the previous week and slightly up from last year. However, corn and wheat shipments were near the lower end of expectations, with corn at 933,274 metric tons (37 million bushels) and wheat at 363,460 metric tons (13 million bushels).
🚢 Flash Sales Reported
US exporters reported multiple flash sales on Monday, including:
155,000 metric tons (6 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
172,500 metric tons (6 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
🌦️ Looking Ahead
As we move through October, the weather will continue to be a crucial factor for both US and Brazilian crops. Keep an eye on forecasts and market reactions as harvest progresses!
Stay tuned for more updates as the situation unfolds! 🌾📊

Massive Short-Covering Event = Marketing Opportunity?? (Fund Traders) Oct 07, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽📉 Funds Reduce Net Short Positions | Middle East Conflict, Brazilian Planting Delays, and US Job Growth
📊 Funds Drastically Reduce Net Short Positions
The CFTC released its Commitment of Traders data on Friday, showing a significant reduction in net short positions by large money managers:
Corn: Funds are now short 72k contracts, down from a record short of 356k in July.
Soybeans: Net buyers of 44k contracts, reducing their net short to 32k contracts, the smallest since the end of May.
SRW Wheat: Net buyers of 6k contracts, bringing the net short to 25k contracts, the smallest since October 2022.
🌍 Conflict in the Middle East Escalates
Tensions continue to rise as Israeli defense reported five projectiles launched from Palestinian territory on Monday. Here’s the latest:
Sirens sounded across central Israel, and two people were injured, according to Bloomberg.
Over the weekend, Israel sent troops back to parts of northern Gaza, indicating ongoing security concerns.
The conflict has pushed crude oil futures to fresh multi-week highs, affecting global markets. 🛢️
🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting Lags
Brazilian soybean planting is falling behind last year’s pace due to hot and dry conditions:
Only 4.1% of the total expected area has been planted, compared to 7.8% at this time last year.
Weather models are predicting rainfall this week, which could help planting progress. 🌧️
🌦️ US Farmers to Stay Busy Amid Dry Weather
US farmers are in for a dry week, perfect for harvest activities:
After a dry weekend, Corn Belt farmers will see another week of mostly dry weather, with above-normal temperatures in the Plains and western Corn Belt.
GFS models suggest no significant rainfall in key corn and soybean areas through October 23rd.
🌾 Russian Wheat Prices Soar
Russian wheat prices have climbed to their highest levels since June due to severe drought:
Prices have risen by 4.3% in the last two weeks.
Lower production is pushing Russian exporters to limit shipments.
Egypt, a major buyer, recently launched its largest wheat tender of 3.8mmt in August.
🚜 USDA Reports Flash Sales
The USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday:
116,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
198,000mt (8 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
📈 US Job Growth Exceeds Expectations
US job growth in September surpassed forecasts:
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000, beating the expected 150,000.
Unemployment declined to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in August.
👇 Stay Informed!
Make sure to subscribe for the latest on ag markets, weather forecasts, and global economic shifts.
#CornFutures #SoybeanMarket #MiddleEastConflict #BrazilPlanting #JobGrowth #USDAFlashSales #AgNews

ADM Leak: BAD LOOK for Pipelines and Carbon Capture Oct 04, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌍 ADM Suspends Carbon Capture Project
ADM has halted CO2 injection at its carbon capture and storage site in Illinois following the discovery of a potential leak underground. This site, one of the first of its kind in the US, aims to combat climate change, but environmental groups have raised concerns about potential harm to drinking water supplies. While ADM assures there’s no risk to public health, this incident poses a setback for carbon capture initiatives. The EPA previously found ADM in violation of federal safe drinking water laws.
⛽ Oil Prices Spike Amid Middle East Tensions
Oil prices surged on Thursday as the US considers supporting an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities. WTI crude rose over 5%, closing above $73 per barrel, marking the largest one-day gain in nearly a year. A potential strike on Iranian oil could lead to prices rising by an additional $28 per barrel and increase gasoline prices by about 67 cents. Current US gasoline prices have been lower due to weak demand and slower growth in the US and Chinese economies.
⚓ Dockworkers' Strike Temporarily Resolved
The US dockworkers' strike has reached a temporary resolution, with a tentative agreement in place that extends the current contract until January 15. Workers will see a 62% wage increase over the new six-year contract. Negotiations will continue on other issues, including automation. It’s expected that the cargo bottleneck caused by the strike will be cleared in about 12 days.
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Update
The latest USDA drought monitor shows improvements in drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt due to rainfall from Hurricane Helene. States like Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri benefited, while Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota saw worsening conditions. Currently, drought conditions affect:
Corn: 27%
Soybeans: 26%
Winter Wheat: 44%
Spring Wheat: 22%
Cattle: 31%
📊 Strong Corn Export Sales
US new crop corn export sales were impressive last week, with net sales hitting 1.7 million metric tons (66 million bushels), the highest volume since November. Mexico was the largest buyer. Net soybean sales also remained solid at 1.4 million metric tons (53 million bushels), while net wheat sales exceeded expectations at 443,700 metric tons (16 million bushels), with Japan being the largest buyer.
💰 Record High for Money-Market Funds
US money-market funds have reached a record high, with about $38.7 billion added during the week ending October 2. Total assets in these funds have risen to $6.46 trillion. This surge follows a third-quarter increase of $321 billion, significantly higher than the previous quarter’s $63 billion. This influx of investment continues even as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates.
Stay tuned for more updates as the market continues to evolve! 🌱📈

"Fast and Furious" US Harvest Pace Oct 03, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 "Fast and Furious" Harvest
2:10 Brazil Weather
5:09 Reduced Russian Wheat Exports
6:35 Russian Drone Attack
8:07 Ethanol Production is STRONG
9:09 Dockworkers
🌾 Fast-Paced US Harvest Ahead
The US corn and soybean harvest is set to move quickly due to a dry forecast. USDA reported that the harvest pace for both crops is ahead of average. The most recent Euro model suggests no significant rainfall for the central United States over the next 10 days, with above-normal temperatures expected throughout the Corn Belt. This is excellent news for farmers looking to expedite their harvest!
🌧️ Brazil's Weather Update
A small storm cluster has moved over northern Mato Grosso, bringing some much-needed rain to Brazilian soybean areas. The 10-day Euro model predicts scattered rain across much of Brazil's soybean regions through next week, although total rainfall is expected to remain below normal. However, the 16-day GFS anomaly map indicates that key soybean areas may see closer-to-normal rainfall later this month.
🌾 Russia's Wheat Export Estimates Lowered
Estimates for Russia's wheat exports have been slightly reduced. Sovecon has lowered its forecast to 47.6 million metric tons due to unfavorable weather conditions affecting the harvest. Despite this reduction, wheat shipments from July to August remain slightly lower than last year's record levels. Russian wheat stocks are currently at 24.8 million metric tons, down 14% compared to last year.
🚁 Drone Attack Affects Ukrainian Ports
A recent Russian drone attack has damaged Ukrainian port infrastructure, raising concerns about Black Sea trade and causing Chicago wheat futures to hit a three-and-a-half month high. The attack targeted grain facilities near Ukraine's border with Romania and affected electricity supplies in the northern Sumy region, impacting almost 80,000 people.
🚜 US Ethanol Production Update
US ethanol production saw an increase last week, with weekly output at 1.02 million barrels per day, marking a 2.1% rise compared to the previous week and a 1% increase year-over-year. Ethanol stocks are currently at 23.5 million barrels, slightly down from the previous week but up 6.4% compared to last year. However, implied gasoline demand fell 7.4% from the previous week.
⚓ Dockworkers Strike Update
President Joe Biden has called for negotiations to resume between striking dockworkers and US port employers. While he’s not planning to intervene directly, Biden warned that the ongoing strike could lead to significant economic consequences. Talks have stalled over wage increases and automation issues, with the strike expected to increase consumer prices and cost the US economy billions.
Stay tuned for more updates as the situation evolves! 🌱📊

Corn Prices are STRONG During Harvest: Why?? Oct 02, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 Corn Futures Rally as Hedge Pressure Remains Low
Corn futures reached new multi-month highs overnight, with the Dec24 contract peaking near $4.33 per bushel. The rally has now reached 48 cents from its August low. Here's what's driving the surge:
Large money managers have been aggressive buyers, reducing their net short positions from a peak of 356k contracts in July to just 50-60k.
Despite an extremely active US harvest, hedge pressure is minimal, possibly due to concerns of a tighter new crop balance sheet after USDA’s lighter-than-expected old crop carryout estimate.
📉 US Farmer Sentiment Hits Eight-Year Low
US farmer sentiment took a dive, hitting its lowest level in more than eight years:
The Purdue University CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped to 88 in September, a 12-point decline from August.
Main concerns include low commodity prices, high input costs, trade uncertainties, high interest rates, and potential policy changes post-election.
Farmers expect much lower profitability in the coming year compared to their outlook at this time last year.
🌍 Iran’s Direct Attack on Israel and Market Impacts
Tensions flared in the Middle East as Iran launched its largest direct attack on Israel:
Hundreds of ballistic missiles were fired, with Israel’s Iron Dome intercepting most of them.
The US Navy assisted, launching about a dozen interceptors.
Oil prices surged over 5% amid concerns about possible supply disruptions in the region. In response, the US has increased its military presence and plans to send more troops and fighter squadrons in the coming days.
🌱 StoneX Raises US Corn & Soybean Crop Estimates
StoneX has adjusted its forecasts for this season’s crops:
Corn yield is now projected at 184 bpa, up from 182.9 bpa. This puts corn production at 15.22 billion bushels, an increase from 15.13 billion.
Soybean yield is estimated at 53.5 bpa, up slightly from 53 bpa, with production forecasted to reach 4.61 billion bushels.
🛢️ Renewable Diesel Production Decline
US renewable diesel production saw its largest monthly decline on record in July:
Production fell by 6% to roughly 4.6 billion gallons per year.
The market has reached a surplus, with output surpassing demand despite government-mandated consumption targets and subsidies.
The demand for vegetable oils as a feedstock also dropped by more than 5.6% to 1.2 billion pounds.
🚜 USDA Flash Sales of Corn & Soybeans
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Tuesday:
195,000mt (8 million bushels) of corn was sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans were also sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

52 Million Bushels of Corn - Big Deal?? + Dockworker Strike Oct 01, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 Corn Futures Rally
Corn futures saw a boost on Monday following a friendly USDA report, which pegged September 1st US corn stocks at 1.76 billion bushels. This figure is 52 million bushels below the USDA's previous estimate due to increased feed and residual usage. The report also confirmed that there were no major surprises in the US wheat production estimates.
📦 Dockworkers Strike on the East and Gulf Coasts
Dockworkers from the International Longshoremen's Association began a strike overnight after failing to reach an agreement with the US Maritime Alliance. This strike is estimated to cost the US economy $540 million per day and will impact container shipments from 36 ports from Maine to Texas. The strike could significantly affect grain exports, with containers accounting for about 10% of these shipments.
🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting Lags
Brazil's soybean planting is lagging, with only 2% of the expected area planted as of last Thursday, compared to 5.2% during the same week last year. Hot and dry conditions are a significant factor in the slow planting progress. As for corn, 30% of the projected acres for Brazil's first corn crop have been planted.
🇨🇳 Boost for Chinese Corn Futures
Chinese corn futures surged 1.9% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, marking the largest one-day gain since January. Recent stimulus measures in China, including lower interest rates and eased home purchase restrictions, have boosted investor confidence. Additionally, reduced grain imports are expected to drive corn futures higher as the Chinese government advises buyers to cut purchases.
🌾 US Harvest Ahead of Schedule
The US corn harvest is progressing well, with 21% harvested nationally compared to 14% last week and 18% on average. States like Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas have already harvested over 50% of their crops. Soybeans are also ahead, with 26% harvested. However, corn conditions slipped slightly to 64% rated as good to excellent.
🌱 Winter Wheat Planting Ongoing
US winter wheat planting is currently 39% complete, ahead of last week’s 25% and in line with the average of 38%. States like Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Washington have planted over 50% of their crops.
📈 Export Shipments Update
US corn shipments remained strong, with 1.1 million metric tons (45 million bushels) inspected for export, reflecting a 70% increase from the same week last year. Soybean shipments were reported at 675,749 metric tons (25 million bushels), up 36% from the prior week, while wheat shipments totaled 536,929 metric tons (20 million bushels), a 25% increase year-over-year.
🥡 Flash Sale of Soybeans
USDA reported a flash sale of 116,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year, although current soybean export commitments remain among the lowest in the last decade.
Stay tuned for more updates as the week progresses! 🌾📊

DEVASTATION: Hurricane Impact on US Ag (Crush Plant Shutdowns??) Sep 30, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌱 Soybean Futures Surge
Soybean futures rallied sharply on Friday, with the nearby Nov24 contract gaining nearly 25 cents (2.4%) per bushel—its best close since July 25th! The rally was largely driven by soybean meal futures, which skyrocketed 5.3%. Hurricane-related storms are expected to disrupt soybean crushing in some southeastern US facilities, leading to market adjustments regarding meal supplies. Concerns about weather conditions in Brazil also contributed to the upward movement.
📊 Grain Stocks Report Coming Up
The USDA is set to release its quarterly Grain Stocks report today at 11:00 AM CST. Analysts expect significantly higher stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat compared to last year. Estimates suggest:
Corn stocks: up 36%
Soybean stocks: up 32%
Wheat stocks: up 12%
There may also be adjustments to the 2023 production estimates for corn and soybeans.
📉 Funds Adjust Positions
"The Funds" have been actively trimming their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets. As of September 24, they were net buyers of 4,000 contracts of corn and 37,000 contracts of soybeans. The net short in soybeans is now 76,000 contracts, the smallest since early June. Since the peak short in July, fund traders have covered 362,000 contracts across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.
🌾 Decline in European Wheat Crop
Europe's wheat production is expected to hit a 12-year low. The European Commission estimates this season's soft wheat crop at 114.6 million metric tons, down 9% from last year, largely due to unfavorable weather conditions. France and Germany, the leading producers, are projected to face significant declines.
⚓ Strike at Vancouver Port Ends
The Vancouver grain workers' strike concluded last week with a tentative agreement. The four-day strike impacted six key terminals, affecting grain exports. A ratification vote is scheduled for Friday. Meanwhile, dockworkers at the Port of Montréal are set to strike for three days starting today.
💰 Gold Positions on the Rise
Money managers have ramped up their bullish positions in gold, increasing their net-long position by 0.9% as of last Tuesday. The net long now stands at 254,841 contracts, the highest since March 2020, with gold prices reaching an all-time high of $2,685.58 per ounce.
🛢️ Flash Sale of Soybean Oil
USDA reported a flash sale of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to South Korea for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This marks the first flash sale of soybean oil since April 2023.
Stay tuned for more updates as we head into the week! 🌟📈

Downside Soybean REVERSAL: Big Deal or No Deal?? Sep 27, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
📈 Soybean & Corn Futures Hit Fresh Highs, Then Pull Back
The Nov24 soybean contract reached a new high of $10.65 per bushel on Thursday before closing lower at $10.41. Here’s the breakdown:
Early optimism around Chinese stimulus was likely behind the initial surge, but hedge pressure late in the session led to a retreat.
Corn futures followed a similar pattern, with the Dec24 contract peaking near $4.19 before closing lower.
Position-squaring could be in play today ahead of Monday’s USDA Grain Stocks report.
💸 US Treasury’s Take on China’s Stimulus Efforts
Jay Shambaugh, the US Treasury's top international official, believes China needs to do more to stimulate its economy. Despite China’s recent interest rate cuts, Shambaugh suggests:
China’s high savings rate creates an imbalance, leading to overproduction of goods and insufficient domestic demand.
Overnight, China confirmed additional stimulus measures that had been rumored earlier.
🌾 USDA Grain Stocks Report Preview
Corn stocks as of September 1st are estimated to be 36% higher than last year.
Soybean stocks are expected to rise 32% year-over-year.
Wheat stocks likely increased by 12% compared to the same period last year.
There may be some discrepancies between these estimates and USDA's most recent projections for old crop carryouts. 🕵️‍♂️
🌦️ Russia’s Wheat Crop Estimates Cut
Russia's IKAR agricultural consultancy has cut its wheat crop estimate:
New projection is 81.8mmt, down slightly from 82.2mmt.
Total grain production is now estimated at 124.5mmt, down from 125mmt due to excessive rainfall in eastern regions.
🚢 Disappointing US Corn Export Sales
Last week’s new crop US corn export sales fell below expectations:
Net corn sales totaled 535,100mt (21 million bushels), down 37% from the previous week. Colombia was the top buyer.
Soybean sales hit 1.6mmt (58 million bushels), near the upper end of expectations but still -10% from the prior week. China was the largest buyer.
Wheat sales disappointed, hitting a marketing-year low of 158,900mt (9 million bushels), down 36% week-over-week. Chile was the largest buyer.
💧 Drought Monitor Update
The USDA's latest drought monitor shows mixed conditions across the Corn Belt:
Improvements: Missouri and Illinois saw some drought relief due to scattered rainfall.
Worsening: Ohio, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Kentucky experienced deteriorating conditions.
🔢 US Areas Experiencing Drought:
Corn: 25%
Soybeans: 30%
Winter Wheat: 50%
Spring Wheat: 18%
Cattle: 32%
🚜 Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico
On Thursday, the USDA reported a flash sale of 115,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
#SoybeanFutures #USDAReport #ChinaStimulus #CornExportSales #DroughtMonitor #AgNews

Soybean Rally Continues on NEW Cash Injections Sep 26, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Soybean & Corn Futures Rally
The Nov24 soybean contract posted its best close since late July, rising 11 cents to close near $10.54 per bushel on Wednesday.
The US crop situation appears mostly "known," but there could be surprises in Monday’s USDA Grain Stocks report.
China's stimulus and ongoing dry conditions in Brazil are also lending support to soybean prices.
The Dec24 corn contract followed suit, closing at its best level since late July, with news of additional Chinese stimulus on the horizon.
Brazil Faces Continued Dryness
Brazil's soybean country remains drier than normal. Both the Euro and GFS models predict rain in early October, but amounts will likely stay below normal over the next two weeks.
Reuters reported that Brazil's drought has "halted" grain transportation through the Madeira River, a key route linking Mato Grosso to vital ports.
Last year, Brazil’s "North Arc" region accounted for 43% of the country's corn exports and 34% of soybean exports.
Drought Affects Russian & Ukrainian Winter Wheat Crops
Winter wheat acres have fallen to their lowest level since 2013, with only 20.5 million acres planted so far, down nearly 11% from last year.
Key producing regions received less than 20% of normal rainfall in the past month.
Ukraine is also feeling the strain:
Winter wheat planting in Ukraine has reached 2.2 million acres, marking a 14% decline from last year.
Hurricane Helene-
Hurricane Helene is intensifying and could become a Category 3 or 4 storm before landfall later today:
Expected to bring winds of 111 mph+, storm surges up to 18 feet, and 12 inches of rain.
The southern and eastern Corn Belt regions might receive up to 5 inches of rainfall from this storm.
Argentina's Shift to Soybeans Over Corn
Argentine farmers are favoring soybeans this season due to profitability concerns and potential disease risks:
Soybean crop is projected to increase by 3% to 52mmt, while the corn crop is expected to decline by 5% to 47mmt.
The shift is driven by higher profitability for soybeans and concerns over leafhopper-induced stunt disease, which severely impacted last year’s corn crop.
US ethanol production took a dip last week:
Output fell to 994,000 barrels per day, down 5.2% on the week but still +1.4% vs. the same week last year.
Ethanol stocks were reported at 23.5 million barrels, down 1.1% from the previous week but up 8.5% compared to last year.
Despite the drop, implied gasoline demand rose 4.9% week-over-week and 9.5% compared to last year.
USDA Reports Flash Sale of Corn
The USDA reported a flash sale of 180,000mt (7 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the current MY.
#SoybeanRally #CornMarket #BrazilDrought #HurricaneHelene #ArgentinaCrops #EthanolProduction

China Stimulus + "Farmer First" Biofuel Legislation Sep 25, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 China Stimulus and Soybean Rally
2:38 "Farmer First" Biofuel Bill
5:49 Canada Port Strike
6:41 US Longshoremen Strike
7:51 Corteva Profits
China’s New Stimulus Package-
China just revealed its largest stimulus package since the pandemic in a bid to boost its economy. Here’s what’s included:
Lower interest rates and increased funding to fuel economic growth.
Reduced home mortgage repayment burdens to ease pressure on homeowners.
But, some analysts are skeptical:
They argue that the stimulus might not be enough to revive the economy due to weak credit demand from consumers and businesses.
Soybean futures rallied on the announcement, with hopes that the stimulus could lead to larger Chinese imports of US soybeans.
45Z Tax Credit Legislation Proposed: Farmer First Fuel Incentives Act
New legislation could mean big changes for farmers!
The bill would restrict eligibility for the 45Z tax credit to renewable fuels produced only from domestically sourced feedstocks.
It would also extend the credit to a full 10-year term, giving the ethanol industry time to grow and farmers new markets to explore.
If passed, this bill would:
Prevent foreign-sourced feedstocks, like Chinese cooking oil, from benefiting.
Open up new opportunities for US-produced soy and corn oil to power renewable diesel, reducing reliance on foreign fuel.
Canada’s Grain Workers Strike
Canada’s largest port, Vancouver, is grinding to a halt.
The strike impacts six major grain terminals, which process about 52% of Canada’s grain production.
This could prevent 100,000mt of grain from reaching the port’s terminals each day.
With potential daily losses of $26 million, this strike could seriously disrupt grain exports if it drags on.
East & Gulf Coast Port Strike Looming
A massive port strike could be on the horizon in the US. 🛳️ About 45,000 dockworkers from the East and Gulf Coast ports are poised to strike on October 1 when their contract expires:
The strike would close 36 ports, which handle over half of the nation’s containerized goods.
Corteva’s Profit Decline Expected Amid South American Drought
Crop concerns in South America are weighing on Corteva’s profit outlook:
Dry conditions are delaying corn planting in Argentina, with more dryness expected due to La Niña.
Brazil’s drought is also hindering soybean planting, raising concerns that second corn crop planting could be delayed.
#ChinaStimulus #45ZTaxCredit #PortStrike #CortevaOutlook #SoybeanRally

Why Did Soybeans RALLY on Monday?? Sep 24, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Hey everyone! 👋 We’ve got a lot to cover today, including a sharp rally in soybean futures, planting delays in Brazil, and some surprising political announcements from Donald Trump. Plus, we’ll check out the latest US crop conditions and export sales. Let’s dive in! 🚀👇
🌾 Soybean Futures Surge
On Monday, soybean futures rallied sharply! The Nov24 contract gained 27 cents per bushel, marking its best close since early August. Here's why:
📊 Fund buying and concerns over dry weather in Brazil fueled the rally.
Private estimates suggest funds bought 20k soybean contracts, 30k corn contracts, and 5k SRW wheat contracts. Despite harvest season, hedge pressure has been light, giving markets room to rise.
☀️ Brazil Soybean Planting Delays
Brazil is struggling with hot and dry weather, which continues to hinder soybean planting. Here’s the latest from AgRural:
As of last Thursday, only 0.9% of the expected soybean area had been planted. Last year, at the same time, planting was at 1.9%.
🇺🇸 Trump’s Tariff Plans on John Deere & China
Donald Trump made some major headlines at a forum in Pennsylvania:
He plans to impose a 200% tariff on John Deere if the company moves production to Mexico. Earlier this year, Deere announced layoffs in the US and has been acquiring land in Mexico to shift some production.
🌽 US Corn & Soybean Conditions Hold Steady
The USDA reports that both corn and soybean conditions were unchanged last week: Corn: 65% rated good to excellent, matching expectations and marking the best rating for this week since 2018. 🏆 About 14% of the crop has been harvested so far. Soybeans: 64% rated good to excellent, also the best rating for this week since 2018. About 13% of the crop has been harvested.
🌾 Winter Wheat Planting Progress
US winter wheat planting is progressing steadily:
25% of the crop was planted by Sunday, up from 14% the previous week. States like CO, MT, NE, SD, and WA are leading the way with 30% or more of their crops planted.
🚢 Strong US Export Shipments
US corn shipments were impressive last week:
The USDA reported 1.1mmt (43 million bushels) of corn inspected for export, up 94% from the prior week and 55% compared to last year.
Soybean shipments were 485,216mt (18 million bushels), a slight increase of 2.5%, though down 4.5% from last year.
Wheat shipments hit 711,073mt (26 million bushels), beating expectations and up 21% from last week.
🚨 USDA Flash Sale of Soybeans
The USDA reported a flash sale of 165,000mt (6 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year.
👇 Stay Informed!
Don’t forget to subscribe for more updates on global ag markets, US crop conditions, and weather impacts.
#SoybeanRally #CornExportSales #BrazilPlanting #TrumpTariffs #USCropConditions #AgNews

"Fund Buying" - Money Managers Reduce Net Corn Short by 60% Sep 23, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s the latest update on the agricultural market and related developments! 🌾📊
📉 Funds Reduce Short Positions
"The Funds" have significantly decreased their net short position in the corn market by 60% since July. As of September 17th, large money managers were short only 144k contracts of corn, down from a record 356k in July. The Dec24 corn contract rallied only 31 cents per bushel from its late August low of $3.85 to a peak of $4.16. Fund traders are also covering shorts in the soybean and wheat markets, though farmer selling has limited price movement.
🌪️ Storm Developing in the Caribbean
A storm in the western Caribbean is expected to develop into a hurricane this week, bringing heavy rains to the southeastern US and parts of the southern and eastern Corn Belt. However, the western Corn Belt and US Plains are likely to remain dry. Corn and soybean harvests are set to progress this week, despite the potential rains, though river conditions are projected to remain unchanged.
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting Delayed
Brazil's soybean planting is lagging behind last year's pace, with only 0.5% of the estimated acreage planted compared to 1.6% last year. Low soil moisture due to hot and dry conditions has hindered planting, though some models predict rain in Mato Grosso later this week.
🚗 US Proposes Ban on Chinese and Russian Car Tech
The US is proposing a ban on smart car technology from China and Russia, which includes autonomous driving systems and vehicle communication. This move aims to prevent potential security risks. The ban is expected to take effect in January, allowing US automakers to develop their own supply chains for connected vehicles.
🐄 Cattle on Feed Report
Friday's Cattle on Feed report was neutral for the market. As of September 1, cattle on feed were reported at 101% of year-ago levels, aligning with expectations. August placements were steady at 99% year-over-year, while marketings came in at 96% of last year's levels.
🌱 Flash Sale of Soybeans
USDA reported a flash sale of 121,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Current US soybean export commitments are the second lowest in the past decade.
Stay tuned for more updates! 🌟

Farmers Hate Relying on China (They're Not Buying US Corn) Sep 20, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🚢📦 West Coast Port Cargo Surge & Market Updates | US Corn Export Sales, Brazil Weather, and Drought Report
Welcome back, everyone! 👋 In today’s video, we’ve got some major updates on the flood of imports into West Coast ports ahead of looming tariffs, a rise in US corn export sales, and the latest weather models for Brazil’s soybean crop. We’ll also dive into the worsening drought conditions across the Corn Belt and the stock market hitting new highs! Let’s get into it! 🚀👇
🚢 West Coast Ports See Massive Spike in Imports
Cargo is pouring into the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach as businesses try to dodge upcoming tariff hikes. These ports handle about a third of all US container imports, and this summer’s spike nearly surpassed the all-time high set in May 2021. What’s behind the surge?
📦 Businesses are rushing to bring in goods before the US hikes tariffs on Chinese products next Friday.
A potential dockworker strike at East and Gulf coast ports is pushing even more imports through the West Coast.
🌽📈 US Corn & Soybean Export Sales Rise
US new crop corn export sales soared last week, driven by strong demand:
Corn sales: 847,400mt (33 million bushels), up 27% from the prior week! Mexico was the top buyer. 🚜
Soybean sales: A whopping 1.7mmt (64 million bushels), with China leading the pack. This beat expectations by 19%! 🌱
Wheat sales, however, fell to their lowest in two months at 246,300mt (9 million bushels), down 48%.
🌧️ Brazil Soybean Forecast: Rain on the Horizon?
Soybean farmers in Brazil may finally get some relief! 🌱 Mato Grosso and other key soybean areas have been battling extremely dry conditions, but rain could be on the way in October.
There’s some disagreement between weather models: The Euro model expects rain toward the end of the next 10 days, while the GFS model is less optimistic.
However, both models predict more consistent rainfall during the first two weeks of October—a positive sign for Brazil’s soybean crop! 🌧️
💧 Drought Worsens in US Corn Belt
The USDA’s weekly drought monitor is out, and the news isn’t great. 😬 Dry, hot weather has worsened drought conditions across the Corn Belt:
77% of the region is now abnormally dry, with Ohio being hit hardest—59% of the state is in severe drought or worse.
While the dry weather is good for corn and soybean maturation, it’s hurting pastures and newly planted crops like winter wheat. 🌾
🔢 US Drought Conditions:
Corn: 26% affected
Soybeans: 33%
Winter Wheat: 58%
Spring Wheat: 19%
Cattle: 35%
📊 Stock Market Surges to Record Highs
The stock market is on fire! 🔥 One day after the Federal Reserve’s half-point rate cut, the S&P 500 hit its 39th record high this year, jumping 1.7%! Here’s the breakdown:
Dow Jones also climbed, closing above the 42,000 level for the first time. 📈
The Fed’s bold move has renewed optimism for a soft landing and avoiding a recession. Jobless claims are also down, reaching their lowest level since May. 💼

China Tariffs Ag Imports: Is the US Next?? Sep 19, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here's a breakdown of the key topics you mentioned:
🌐 Trade & Global Tensions:
China-Taiwan Tariff Suspensions:
China is set to suspend tariff exemptions on 34 agricultural products from Taiwan starting September 25. The suspension spans from fruits to aquatic products. While the monetary impact is expected to be minimal, this move highlights the ongoing tensions between Taipei and Beijing since Taiwan's new president, who advocates for independence, took office in May. Meanwhile, the US is also planning to increase tariffs on Chinese products next week, further escalating trade tensions globally.
🌦️ Brazil Weather & Agricultural Impact:
Hot & Dry Conditions for Brazilian Soybean Farmers:
Brazil is facing another week of hot and dry weather, especially in central and northern soybean regions, which are experiencing significant moisture deficits. While southern areas are receiving rain, they risk becoming too wet. As a result, farmers have been slow to start planting corn and soybeans. The 16-day GFS model predicts limited rain for key areas, though more rain may arrive in October. 🌱
🛰️ Ukrainian Drone Attack on Russian Arms Depot:
A Ukrainian drone struck a Russian arms facility in the Tver region, causing a massive explosion that even triggered earthquake sensors! The facility stored missiles and artillery ammunition, and it's estimated that 200-240 tons of high explosives detonated. Despite the significant explosion, no fatalities were reported, though nearby areas were evacuated. Ukraine continues to report successes in shooting down Russian drones.
📈 US Ethanol & Gasoline Production:
Ethanol Production:
US ethanol output was strong last week, averaging 1.05 million barrels/day. While production was down compared to the previous week, it remained slightly higher than the same period last year. Ethanol stocks increased marginally, while implied gasoline demand rose by 3.5% from the previous week, maintaining a slight edge over last year’s demand. 🚗
🏦 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts:
Fed Cuts Rates to Prevent Slowdown:
In a move aimed at averting an economic slowdown, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by 0.5%, the first reduction in four years. Inflation is easing, but the labor market is showing signs of strain, with unemployment climbing to 4.2%. The Fed has signaled further rate cuts this year, with plans for additional reductions in 2025 and 2026 to keep the economy on track.

Cash 4 Farmers?? Lawmakers Consider Aid Package Sep 18, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s the latest roundup of key developments affecting the agricultural market and the economy! 🌾💼
🌱 Farm Income Support Package Consideration
US lawmakers are exploring a potential "farm income support" package aimed at assisting producers grappling with low commodity prices. Senator Jerry Moran (KS) emphasized the need for quick aid, likely tied to a farm bill extension, but without modifying current commodity programs. The focus is on immediate assistance rather than long-term changes.
🌾 Russian Profits from Stolen Grain
Russia is reportedly funding its war through profits from stolen Ukrainian grain, with approximately $1 billion generated since the invasion. Estimates suggest around 4 million tons of stolen grain have been sold on the black market, primarily to countries like Syria and Iran that do not comply with sanctions.
💧 Drought Impacting Wheat in Ukraine and Russia
Drought conditions are severely hindering wheat planting in both countries. Wheat prices have risen due to concerns over supplies from the Black Sea, with USDA projecting global wheat stockpiles at a nine-year low this season. Rain is expected, but significant precipitation is needed to improve soil moisture.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Soybean Crop Set for Growth
Brazil is anticipating a substantial increase in its soybean crop, estimated at 166.3 million metric tons, up nearly 13% from last season. This growth is driven by increased planted acreage and improved yields. The Brazilian corn crop is also projected to rise to 119.8 million metric tons, a 3.6% increase.
🌊 Salt Water Intrusion in the Mississippi River
Salt water is advancing up the Mississippi River due to low water levels, prompting the construction of a sill near New Orleans to prevent contamination of drinking water. If rainfall does not occur soon, fresh water may need to be transported downstream, or a boil alert could be issued.
📉 Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expected
The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, with speculation about a quarter-point or half-point cut. A slowdown in the labor market has raised concerns about inflation pressures versus recession risks. The decision will be announced today at 1:00 p.m. CST.
Stay tuned for more updates as these situations evolve! 🌟📊

US/China Trade War to Resume Next Week? Biden to Hike Tariffs Sep 17, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Biden to Hike Tariffs
2:48 China Demand Problems
6:38 Brazil Drought Continues
8:05 NOPA Crush Miss
9:46 Crop Progress
11:50 Export Inspections
12:45 Flash Sale
Here’s the latest scoop on the markets and key developments! 🌾📈
🛠️ Tariff Hikes on Chinese Imports
The Biden administration announced major tariff increases on Chinese imports last week:
100% Tariff on EVs
50% Tariff on Solar Cells
25% Tariff on Steel, Aluminum, and Key Minerals
These hikes aim to protect US industries from China’s state-controlled practices, but critics warn they could disrupt supply chains and raise costs for consumers. China has responded, claiming these tariffs will backfire on the US. The new tariffs will take effect on September 27.
🌾 Grain Imports Drop in China
China's economic slowdown has led to a sharp decrease in grain imports:
Only 13,400mt of US corn sold to China this season.
Meat consumption cuts are impacting grain needs for livestock.
US soybean exports to China are at their lowest in 16 years, primarily due to Brazil’s competitive pricing.
☀️ Drought Impacting Brazil
Brazilian soybean planting is struggling due to hot and dry conditions:
Only 0.06% of expected soybean acres planted so far, compared to 0.15% last year.
Rain is expected mainly in the southern states, with Mato Grosso facing no rain this week.
The first corn crop planting is also lagging at 19% planted.
📊 NOPA Crush Data Released
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a decline in soybean crush:
158 million bushels processed in August, the lowest since September 2021.
End-of-month soybean oil stocks fell to 1.1 billion pounds, a 10-month low.
🌽 US Corn and Soybean Conditions
Corn Conditions: Rated at 65% good to excellent, slightly up from last week.
Soybean Conditions: Rated at 64%, consistent with trade expectations.
Both crops are seeing early harvesting progress, with 9% of corn and 6% of soybeans harvested nationally.
🌾 Wheat Harvest Ahead of Schedule
US spring wheat is 92% harvested, which is ahead of the average.
Winter wheat planting is 14% complete, surpassing average expectations.
🚢 Corn Shipments Disappointing
US corn exports were down last week:
521,118mt (21 million bushels) inspected for export, a 38% drop from the previous week.
Soybean shipments saw a slight increase, while wheat shipments met expectations.
🌟 Flash Sales of Soybeans
US exporters sold 132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Stay tuned for more updates as the situation evolves! 🌱✨

Wheat WINNING Streak + Rain in Brazil?? Sep 16, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Wheat Winning Streak
1:49 Western Weapons in Ukraine?
2:56 Russia/Iran Ties
5:29 Brazil Weather Shift??
6:39 Funds and Farmers
8:18 Flash Sale
Here’s the latest on the markets and key updates:
🌾 Wheat Futures Surge:
Third Consecutive Week of Gains: Wheat futures rose for the third straight week due to several factors. India’s government has reduced the amount of wheat stockpiles allowed for traders and large retailers, indicating tight supplies and an effort to stabilize domestic prices. Drought conditions in Russia and Ukraine, combined with recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian wheat transport, have further fueled supply concerns.
🌍 Ukraine’s Long-Range Weaponry:
US and Britain Consider Support: The US and Britain are mulling over allowing Ukraine to use long-range Western weapons. President Biden and Britain’s Prime Minister discussed this last week amid threats from Vladimir Putin, who claims such a move would indicate that NATO countries are at war with Russia. While Britain believes Putin is bluffing, Biden remains cautious about the potential escalation.
🚀 Russia-Iran Military Relations:
Growing Ties: The US and UK are worried about Russia providing classified information and technology to Iran, potentially advancing Iran’s nuclear capabilities. In return, Iran is allegedly supplying ballistic missiles to Russia for its conflict with Ukraine. Despite these concerns, Iran insists it is not pursuing nuclear weapons.
🌧️ Brazilian Soybean Weather:
Hot and Dry Conditions: Brazil’s soybean regions will experience continued hot and dry weather, with rainfall expected mainly in the southern states over the next two weeks. However, extended forecasts suggest potential rains in central soybean areas starting in early October. Weather forecasts can be unreliable, so stay tuned for updates.
📉 Fund Trader Activity:
Trimming Positions: Fund traders reduced their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets. For the week ending September 10, funds were net buyers of 41k corn contracts (the smallest net short since May) and 26k soybean contracts. They also bought 13k SRW wheat contracts.
🌱 Soybean Flash Sale:
New Sales: US exporters sold 100,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Despite recent sales, soybean commitments for the current marketing year remain the second lowest in the past decade.
Keep an eye on these developments as they could impact the markets further! 🌾📈

Scariest Soybean Chart Ever Sep 13, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 USDA Raises Corn Yield Estimate
Big news from the USDA! Yesterday, they increased their estimate of the US corn crop:
Yield was raised to 183.6bpa, up slightly from 183.1bpa.
Total crop is now pegged at 15.2 billion bushels, making it the second-largest on record, just behind last year! 📈
Despite the increase, old crop carryout was reduced by 55 million bushels due to stronger demand, so the balance sheet stayed flat.
The Dec24 corn contract managed to stay above $4/bu despite some pressure.
🚢 Russian Missile Hits Grain Ship in Black Sea
A Russian missile allegedly struck a grain vessel in the Black Sea, marking the first attack on a civilian ship transporting grain since the war began in February 2022. Here’s what happened:
The ship, from Saint Kitts and Nevis, was carrying Ukrainian grain to Egypt.
The attack occurred in international waters near Romania.
Thankfully, there were no casualties, and the ship continued its voyage. 🚢💥
🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Concerns
The situation is heating up in Brazil—literally. 🔥 Soil moisture levels in key soybean regions are at their lowest in 30 years:
The states of Mato Grosso and Parana, responsible for 40% of Brazil’s soybean output last season, are facing serious drought conditions. 🌵
Over the next 10 days, dry conditions and above-normal temperatures are expected.
Relief may come with rain forecasted for late September, but significant rainfall may not return until mid-October. 🌧️
💧 US Drought Conditions Worsen
The USDA’s latest drought monitor shows that drought is tightening its grip across the Corn Belt.
Hot, dry weather is affecting the southern and eastern Corn Belt, leading to signs of deeper dryness. 🌞
📉 US Crop Export Sales: Mixed Results
US export sales took a hit for corn, but there were some bright spots for soybeans and wheat. Here’s the breakdown:
Corn export sales were below expectations, totaling 666,500mt (26 million bushels), down 63% from the prior week. Mexico was the largest buyer.
Soybean sales were strong, hitting 1.5mmt (54 million bushels), with China leading the way. 📊
Wheat sales were 474,900mt (17 million bushels), up 40% from last week, with Taiwan as the top buyer.
🔥 Flash Sale of Corn!
More good news on the export front! The USDA reported a flash sale of 118,626mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
👇 Stay Updated!
Make sure to subscribe and stay tuned for more updates on global grain markets, US crop data, and weather impacts. Let me know in the comments: what do you think about the recent USDA corn estimate? 💬
#USDAReport #BlackSeaIncident #DroughtMonitor #SoybeanDrought #CornExportSales #AgNews #FlashSaleCorn

Did August Heat Hurt Corn and Soybean Yield Potential?? Sep 12, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Hey, everyone! 🙌 Today's video is packed with important updates from the USDA’s latest Crop Production and WASDE report to major challenges in Russian grain exports, low water levels on the Mississippi River, and US ethanol production. Let's dive into the details! 🚜👇
🌾 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report: What to Expect
Today at 11 AM CST, the USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report. Here’s why traders are eagerly waiting:
For the first time this year, the government will incorporate "objective yield data" 📊 into its corn and soybean estimates!
Expectations: A small reduction in the US national corn yield estimate 🌽 and mostly unchanged soybean yield estimates 🌱.
With drier weather hitting the eastern Corn Belt, some traders believe last month may have been the high point for yield estimates. 📉
🇷🇺 Russian Grain Exports to Decline
Russia’s grain exports are expected to take a hit this year, especially from the Rostov region, which suffered early spring frosts and drought. This region, Russia’s breadbasket, accounted for over 11% of the nation’s grain harvest in 2023, but production is predicted to drop by 30% this year. 😲
Complicating matters further, TD RIF, Russia’s largest grain trader, is sitting out this year, adding uncertainty to export potential.
🚢 Mississippi River: Low Water Levels Hurting Farmer Profits
🌊 Here’s how bad it is:
Grain shipments on the Mississippi dropped 17% compared to the previous week.
Freight rates are skyrocketing! Rates in St. Louis are up 57%, and in Memphis, they’re up 63% compared to the three-year average. 📈
🍻 US Ethanol Production Surges
Good news for the ethanol market! 🚗 US ethanol production hit 1.08 million barrels per day last week, which is up 1.8% week-on-week and a big 6.7% increase compared to the same week last year! 🔥
Ethanol stocks were reported at 23.7 million barrels, up 1.5% from last week and 9.7% higher than the same week last year.
However, implied gasoline demand was down 5.1% on the week, continuing a trend of weaker demand this year.
🏦 Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since 2021
Inflation is cooling down! The CPI increased by 2.5% in August year-over-year, marking the lowest level since February 2021. 📉
Month-over-month, prices remained flat compared to July.
Economists expected a slightly higher annual gain of 2.6%, but this low reading almost guarantees a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.
👇 Stay Informed!
Don’t forget to subscribe to stay up-to-date on the latest agricultural trends, ethanol production stats, and global grain news! Drop your thoughts in the comments—what do you think the USDA report will reveal? 💬
#USDAReport #RussianGrain #MississippiRiver #EthanolProduction #Inflation #AgNews

Food Prices are Record High - Don't Blame Farmers Sep 11, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Don't Blame Farmers
3:45 45Z News?
6:20 Francine/River Update
8:25 Brazil Cattle Herd
9:52 Crude Declines
🌱 Consumers & Sustainable Food: Who’s Paying the Price?
Sustainability is a hot topic, but guess what? 🌍 Despite the pressure on food producers to go green, consumers aren’t ready to pay a premium for eco-friendly options. According to the CEO of JBS, the solution lies in boosting productivity to make food more affordable, not more expensive.
The food industry needs $350 billion annually until 2030 to go sustainable.
Farmers deserve compensation for adopting higher environmental standards 🌿, but how can we make that happen without raising food prices?
💸 45Z Tax Credit: A Boost for US Agriculture?
Big changes are coming! 🚜 Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack is confident that the new 45Z tax credit will be finalized by January, offering better incentives for sustainable farming. Here’s what you need to know:
The new credit is expected to include more crops and eco-friendly practices than the current 40B credit.
🌪️ Hurricane Francine: Impacting Louisiana & Beyond
Hold on to your hats! 🎩 Hurricane Francine is about to hit the Louisiana coast with winds over 100 mph! Here’s what’s on the radar:
Expect up to 12 inches of rainfall and a storm surge up to 10 feet along the coast.
🌽 While heavy rain is expected in parts of the Corn Belt, it won’t be enough to ease low water levels on the Mississippi River.
🐂 Brazilian Cattle Herd Decline: What’s Next for Global Beef?
The cattle industry is facing a rough road ahead 🐄. Brazil’s cattle herd is expected to decline in 2025 and beyond, with fewer cattle being slaughtered. Here's what you need to know:
Brazil, the largest beef exporter in 2024, is expected to see a drop of 4.6% in slaughter next year.
🥩 Meanwhile, the US beef cowherd is at its lowest level since 1951!
🛢️ Oil Prices Plummet: What’s Behind the Drop?
Oil prices took a hit! 📉 WTI crude dropped 4% to close at $65.75 per barrel. The culprits? OPEC+ downgraded its demand growth forecast, citing:
China’s slowing economy and growing reliance on natural gas.
Decreased economic activity in the US and Europe.
But don’t count oil out just yet! Some analysts believe that postponed production cuts could stabilize prices in the months ahead.
#SustainableFood #45ZTaxCredit #HurricaneFrancine #GlobalBeef #OilPrices #AgNews #FoodIndustry

Why is the US Importing French Wheat?? Sep 10, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s the latest scoop on the markets and key updates:
🌾 American Flour Mills Importing European Wheat:
European Wheat Imports: Ardent Mills in Albany, NY will soon receive 27,000 tons of French wheat. Since the season started in July, around 53,000 tons of European wheat have been shipped to the US. Eastern US millers are opting for cheaper European supplies despite France's poor harvest due to excessive rainfall.
🌪️ Tropical Storm Francine:
Hurricane Alert: Tropical Storm Francine is strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. Southern Louisiana may face winds over 100 mph, a storm surge up to 10 feet, and up to 12 inches of rain. Evacuation orders are in effect, and Louisiana has declared a statewide emergency.
🌱 Brazilian Corn Planting:
Planting Delays: Brazil’s first corn crop planting is slightly behind last year’s pace, with 15% planted as of last Thursday compared to 17% last year. Low soil moisture and hot, dry conditions are delaying soybean planting, which is likely to remain stalled with minimal rain in the forecast.
🌽 US Crop Conditions:
Corn: The corn crop was rated 64% good to excellent as of Sunday, down from 65% the previous week but matching trade expectations. The USDA estimates 5% of the crop is harvested, up from 3% on average.
Soybeans: Soybean conditions held steady at 65% good to excellent, surpassing expectations. The USDA estimates 25% of the crop is dropping leaves, up from 13% last week and 21% on average.
Spring Wheat: Harvest is ahead of schedule at 85% complete, versus 70% last week and 83% on average. Winter wheat planting is also progressing, with 6% complete.
🚢 US Grain Shipments:
Corn: Shipments were 836,413mt (33 million bushels), down 13% from the previous week but up 31% from last year.
Soybeans: Shipments were 354,166mt (13 million bushels), down 30% from the prior week and 5.2% from last year.
Wheat: Shipments were 586,687mt (22 million bushels), down 2.7% from last week but up 44% from last year.
🌾 Flash Sale of Soybeans:
New Sales: US exporters sold 132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Although recent sales have picked up, they remain among the lowest in the last decade.
🇨🇳 China’s Antidumping Investigation:
Canadian Canola: China has launched an investigation into Canadian canola imports, alleging that Canada dumped excessive quantities in 2023. This follows Canada's plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum starting October 1. China is also investigating EU pork and dairy imports.
Stay tuned for more updates and adjustments! 🌾🚀

REJECTION: Is the Corn/Soybean Rally Over?? Sep 09, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here's the latest on the markets and key developments:
0:00 Rejection
2:15 "The Funds"
5:32 Tropical Storm / River Levels
7:05 Export Sales
9:09 Brazil Update
10:35 Chinese Ag Drones
11:40 Trump/Biden/Tariffs
🌾 Corn and Soybean Futures:
Corn and soybean futures pulled back from recent highs on Friday. The Dec24 corn contract reached $4.16 per bushel but closed near $4.06. The Nov24 soybean contract hit $10.31 per bushel before closing around $10.05. This rally followed reduced farmer selling and concerns over drought in Brazil, along with stronger export sales reported by USDA.
🌾 Fund Trader Positions:
Fund traders have reduced their net short positions. For the week ending September 3, funds were net buyers of 61k corn contracts and 21k soybean contracts. This has cut down nearly half of the record net short position in corn. They also bought 11k SRW wheat contracts.
🌧️ Mississippi River Conditions:
Despite the Potential Tropical Storm Six expected to bring heavy rains to the Gulf Coast and southeastern US, water levels on the Mississippi River are likely to continue declining. The system may bring 3-5 inches of rain to southern areas, but central and northern river valley areas may remain dry.
🌽 US Export Commitments:
New crop US corn export commitments were strong last week at 1.8mmt (72 million bushels), up 22% from the previous week, with Mexico being the largest buyer. Soybean sales were 1.7mmt (61 million bushels), down 37% from the previous week, with China as the largest buyer. Wheat sales were lower than expected at 340,000mt (12 million bushels).
🌱 Brazilian Soybean Production:
Brazil's soybean production is projected to rise to 168mmt this season, a 14% increase from last year, despite ongoing drought conditions. Forecasts suggest that rainfall may start in October. The USDA projects Brazilian soybean production at 169mmt. Prices for soybeans recently fell to a nearly four-year low, but have since been buoyed by US crop concerns.
🚁 Chinese Agriculture Drones:
US lawmakers are raising concerns about DJI agricultural drones potentially posing a security threat. They argue that these drones could be used for attacks, although DJI denies military ties. The US imposed export restrictions on DJI in 2020, but the company still dominates the US drone market.
💰 Trump’s Tariff Proposal:
Donald Trump proposed a 100% tariff on countries that move away from the US dollar. The Biden administration is also expected to make a decision soon on increasing tariffs on Chinese EVs, batteries, semiconductors, and solar cells.
Stay tuned for more updates and adjustments in these key areas!

Soybean Winning Streak + USDA Farm "Profit" Forecast Sep 06, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s the latest update from the markets:
🌾 Soybean Futures:
Winning Streak: The Nov24 soybean contract closed higher for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday, gaining 2 cents per bushel. Despite high yield estimates, some traders worry that August’s heat and dry weather might lead to losses. Recent interest from China in US soybeans aligns with typical seasonal patterns.
🌾 Corn and Wheat Futures:
Snap in Rally: Corn futures ended their five-day winning streak with a decline yesterday, while wheat futures also halted their recent gains.
🌾 US Drought Monitor:
Conditions Worsen: The drought has worsened in parts of the Corn Belt due to above-normal temperatures and minimal rainfall. Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and other areas are seeing deteriorated conditions, while Wisconsin and Michigan saw some improvement. Rainfall in the High Plains improved conditions in central Kansas but worsened them in western South Dakota and Nebraska. See the USDA’s drought PDF HERE.
🌾 Mississippi River Impact:
Barge Rates Surge: Declining water levels on the Mississippi River due to drought have led to a nearly 20% increase in barge rates. Restrictions on barge traffic are in place, affecting corn and soybean shipments and making US exports less competitive. Further declines in water levels are expected with minimal rain in the forecast. See maps/graphics below.
🌾 Brazilian Soybean Weather:
Dry Conditions: Most key soybean areas in Brazil will remain dry for the next 10 days. Forecasts suggest rainfall in southern Brazil through mid-month, with a possible return of rains to central areas later in September. This drought may delay planting, with September marking the transition from the dry to wet season. See maps below.
🌾 US Farm Income:
Less Decline: USDA estimates net farm income at $140 billion this year, down 4.4% from 2023. This is better than the earlier projection of a 26% decline. Despite lower corn and soybean prices, the estimate is 15% above the 20-year average. Total crop receipts are expected to drop by $27.7 billion, a 10% decrease. Click HERE for the USDA release.
🌾 US Ethanol Production:
Slight Decline: Weekly ethanol production fell to 1.06 million barrels per day, a 1% drop from the previous week but up 5.4% year-over-year. Ethanol stocks are at 23.4 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand decreased by 4% from the previous week and 1.4% from last year. Over the last four weeks, implied gasoline demand is up 1% from last year. See charts below.
🌾 Flash Sales:
Soybeans: USDA reported multiple flash sales of soybeans on Thursday. US exporters sold 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China and 189,700 metric tons (7 million bushels) to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
🌾 Gasoline Prices:
Fall to Six-Month Lows: Gasoline prices have dropped to a six-month low, with the national average at $3.32 per gallon. This is $0.15 lower than last month and $0.49 lower than last year. Prices are expected to fall further as winter-grade gasoline becomes more common. Analysts anticipate prices could drop as low as $3 per gallon by year-end. The avera

Is the Grain Bear DEAD?? (Corn/Soybean/Wheat Prices) Sep 05, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽🌱 Corn, Soybean, & Wheat Markets on Fire! 🔥 | Futures Rally, Global Crop Updates & River Concerns
Welcome back to the channel, traders! 🚜 Today we’re diving into the latest surges in the corn, soybean, and wheat markets, as well as some critical updates on global agriculture trends. Let's get into the details!
🚀 Futures Rallying Strong!
Corn, soybean, and wheat futures are making waves! 🌊 On Wednesday, all three surged:
Corn & soybean futures closed higher for four consecutive sessions!
KC wheat futures crushed it with six consecutive higher closes!
✨ What's Driving This? Fund traders are covering short positions and US farmers may be holding off on selling, especially after last week’s First Notice Day. Let's break it down:
Dec24 corn contract rallied 29 cents 📈 from last week’s low!
Nov24 soybean contract spiked an impressive 70 cents 📊!
Dec24 KC wheat contract rose 67 cents from its August low!
🇧🇷 Record Soybean Production Expected in Brazil!
Get ready for a massive harvest in Brazil! 🏞️ AgRural reports that soybean production is set to hit 168 million metric tons (MMT), a 14% increase compared to last season! However, 🌞 dry weather is causing planting delays. Here's the scoop:
Planting is expected to start soon, but dry conditions may push it back ⏳.
Brazil’s soybean acreage will expand, but only by 0.9%, the slowest growth in 20 years! 🌱
🇺🇸 US Crop Yields Rise!
Exciting news for US corn and soybean farmers! StoneX reports slight increases in crop yields:
Corn: Up to 182.9 bpa, with total production pegged at 15.1 billion bushels 🌽.
Soybeans: Yields increased to 53 bpa, with production rising to 4.6 billion bushels 🌱!
🌊 Mississippi River Low Water Levels Impact Exports
Trouble on the water! 🚢 The Mississippi River is facing its third consecutive year of low water levels, causing massive disruptions for grain exports:
Barge rates are skyrocketing, making US grain exports less competitive globally 🌍.
Memphis’ water level could hit a shocking -7.5 feet by mid-September! ⚠️
🌾 Ukraine's Drought Concerns
🌍 Ukraine is battling drought, with up to 70% of the country affected by dry conditions. Despite this, farmers are starting to plant winter crops:
Wheat harvest for 2023/24 season was 21.8MMT, slightly down from last year.
USDA estimates next season's wheat production at 21.6MMT.
👇 Stay Updated!
Be sure to subscribe for more updates on global agricultural trends, futures markets, and crop news. Comment below on what you think this means for the market in the long term! 📈 And remember, staying informed is key to staying ahead! 🚀

Brazil Drought + Canada/China/Canola/EVs Sep 04, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s the latest market update:
🌾 Brazilian Soybean Drought:
Concerns Growing: The drought in Brazil is intensifying. StoneX has kept its soybean crop estimate at 165 million metric tons (MMT), while the USDA projects 169 MMT. Planting is challenging due to dry weather, with no rain forecasted for most of Brazil in the next 10 days. The Nov24 soybean contract gained 12 cents per bushel on Tuesday. See maps below.
🌾 China's Antidumping Investigation:
Canola Imports Under Scrutiny: China plans to investigate Canadian canola imports, citing dumping concerns. This move follows Canada’s tariffs on Chinese EVs and steel/aluminum. China imports over 90% of its canola from Canada. North American canola futures fell their daily limit of $45 on Tuesday, the largest one-day drop since August 2022.
🌾 US Crop Conditions:
Corn: US corn conditions held steady at 65% good to excellent, matching trade expectations and the best for this week since 2018. 19% of the crop is mature.
Soybeans: Soybean conditions fell to 65% good to excellent, slightly below expectations but still the best since 2020. 13% of the crop is dropping leaves.
🌾 US Spring Wheat Harvest:
Progressing: The US spring wheat harvest is 70% complete, matching the average but slightly ahead of projections. Winter wheat planting is underway, with 2% planted.
🌾 Argentina Rainfall:
Beneficial for Corn: Recent rains in Argentina are expected to aid corn planting. The Rosario Grains Exchange anticipates corn production at 49 MMT, with farmers potentially planting more corn acres than previously expected due to recent moisture.
🌾 US Grain Shipments:
Strong Shipments:
Corn: 965,292 metric tons (38 million bushels) inspected for export, +5.2% from the previous week and +100% from last year.
Soybeans: 496,860 metric tons (18 million bushels) inspected, up 18% from the prior week and 22% from last year.
Wheat: 577,944 metric tons (21 million bushels) inspected, +5.2% from the previous week and +82% from last year.
🌾 Flash Sale:
Soybeans: 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year, matching a previous flash sale.
🌾 US Oil Prices:
Plunge: WTI crude fell 4.4% to $70.34 per barrel, its lowest close since December. The decline is partly due to potential increased Libyan oil production and weaker manufacturing activity in China and the US. Oil prices are also under pressure as OPEC+ plans to boost output by over 1.4 million barrels per day starting in October.
Keep an eye on these developments as they could significantly influence market dynamics and strategies! 🌾📉🛢️

Did Corn/Soybeans Post "Harvest Lows" in August?? Sep 03, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here's a recap of the latest updates:
🌾 Futures Rally:
Corn: The Dec24 corn contract gained 5 cents per bushel, closing above $4 for the first time since August 19. New crop corn futures have risen 16 cents per bushel from their late August low.
Soybeans: The Nov24 soybean contract increased by 8 cents per bushel, closing above $10 for the first time since August 9. New crop soybean futures rallied 53 cents from their August low to last week’s high. Fund traders were net buyers of 15,000 contracts of corn and 10,000 contracts of soybeans on Friday.
🌾 Brazilian Soybean Drought:
Severe Conditions: Brazil's soybean crops are facing the worst drought in over 40 years. Some areas are experiencing the driest conditions on record since 1981. Soybean planting in Mato Grosso is expected to be delayed due to below-average rainfall in September and October. Dry weather is forecast to continue for at least the next two weeks. See maps from CropProphet for details.
🌾 Fund Trader Positions:
Large Net Shorts: Fund traders hold a massive net short position across the grain complex. According to CFTC data:
Corn: Net short of 249,000 contracts (historically large).
Soybeans: Net short of 168,000 contracts (historically large).
SRW Wheat: Net sellers of 6,000 contracts.
🌾 Used Equipment Demand:
Growing Interest: Farmers are increasingly turning to used equipment due to low grain prices. Used tractors were in high demand at the Farm Progress Show in Iowa, with BigIron Auctions offering its largest-ever selection of used equipment. The drop in grain prices and reduced profits are leading farmers to cut back on new equipment purchases, which may further lower used equipment prices.
🌾 Flash Sales:
Soybeans and Meal:
132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
100,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal were sold to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Keep an eye on these developments as they could have significant impacts on market trends and planning strategies! 🌽🌾📈

Breakout or Fake-Out?? Time for a Soybean Rally? Aug 30, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s the latest update on the grain markets and economic conditions:
🌾 Grain Futures Rise:
Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat: Futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat all closed higher on Thursday. This increase followed the pricing or rolling of September basis contracts, likely reducing farmer selling until harvest. Strong export sales for wheat, new crop corn, and new crop soybeans contributed to this upward movement. Fund traders were net buyers of 10,000 contracts of corn, 10,000 contracts of soybeans, and 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat.
🌾 Export Sales:
Corn: New crop corn export commitments were strong at 1.5 million metric tons (59 million bushels), up 16% from the previous week. Mexico was the largest buyer, though China has not yet purchased any new crop US corn.
Soybeans: New crop soybean sales were robust at 2.6 million metric tons (96 million bushels), a 56% increase from the previous week. China was the largest buyer for the week.
Wheat: Net wheat sales were reported at 532,100 metric tons (20 million bushels), up 8% from the previous week and 53% above the prior 4-week average. The Philippines led as the largest wheat buyer.
🌾 Egypt’s Wheat Tender:
Large Tender: Egypt initiated its largest wheat tender on record, seeking 3.8 million metric tons. The tender was nearly 20 times its usual size, valued at approximately $850 million. This move aimed to address "food security concerns" amid regional tensions and supply risks. However, Egypt could only purchase 7% of the targeted volume and continues to explore other procurement options.
🌾 Sorghum Sale:
Flash Sale: On Thursday, US exporters sold 118,000 metric tons of sorghum to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year, marking the second sorghum sale to China this year, totaling 244,000 metric tons.
🌾 Drought Monitor:
Worsening Conditions: The USDA’s weekly drought monitor reported minimal rainfall across the Corn Belt last week, worsening drought conditions in Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, and Kentucky. Conditions also deteriorated in Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. Current drought conditions:
Corn: 8%
Soybeans: 12%
Winter Wheat: 47%
Spring Wheat: 21%
Cattle: 24%
🌾 US Economic Expansion:
GDP Growth: The US economy expanded at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, up from the prior estimate of 2.8%. The revision was driven by increased consumer spending. Despite this stronger growth, the economy is expected to cool in the coming months due to high interest rates. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates next month, potentially easing borrowing costs for businesses.
Keep an eye on these developments as they could impact market dynamics and future planning! 🌽🌾📈

Is China LYING About its Grain Situation? Aug 29, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 China Grain Situation
2:39 Lower Canadian Wheat Production
5:12 GMO Wheat Approved in US
6:28 Used Cooking Oil News
8:45 Ethanol Production
9:52 Flash Sales
Here’s the latest news in the grain and biofuels markets:
🌾 China’s Import Restrictions:
China is proposing new restrictions on barley and sorghum imports to address domestic oversupply and improve local prices. This follows earlier restrictions on corn imports for the same reasons. Currently, Chinese corn, sorghum, and barley prices are at or near their lowest in over three years, and corn inventories at southern ports are nearing a two-year high.
🌾 Canadian Wheat Production:
Lower Estimates: Canada’s wheat production is now expected to increase by about 4% this year to approximately 34.4mmt, lower than the previous estimate of 35.1mmt. The reduction is due to hot and dry conditions impacting crop yields. Global wheat stocks have been declining for five consecutive years and are projected to hit a nine-year low in the 2024/2025 season, exacerbated by unfavorable conditions in Russia.
🌾 GMO Wheat Approval:
HB4 Trait: The USDA has approved the production of GMO wheat with the drought-tolerant HB4 trait, developed by Argentina-based Bioceres Crop Solutions. This herbicide-resistant wheat is now approved in the US, Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina.
🌾 US Used Cooking Oil Imports:
Surge in Imports: US imports of used cooking oil (UCO) have surged by 240% between 2022 and 2023, with China supplying 60% of the total. The boom in the biofuels industry is driving this increase. Recent EU tariffs on Chinese biodiesel imports are expected to further boost US imports of Chinese UCO due to a global market surplus. Concerns over fraudulent UCO imports have been raised by US farm organizations and lawmakers.
🌾 US Ethanol Production:
Decline and Demand: US ethanol production decreased to 1.07 million barrels per day last week, down 2.5% from the previous week but up 2.2% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 23.6 million barrels, showing a slight decrease from the previous week but a 3.4% increase year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand rose by 1.2% week-over-week and 4.5% year-over-year. Over the past four weeks, implied gasoline demand is up by 1% compared to last year.
🌾 USDA Flash Sales:
On Wednesday, US exporters sold:
264,000 metric tons (10 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
100,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn to Colombia for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
165,735 metric tons (7 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Stay tuned for more updates and make sure to adapt your strategies to these evolving market conditions! 🌽🌾📉

"Balance Sheet Deterioration" - Midwest Ag Economy in Full Blown Recession Aug 28, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Ag Recession
3:55 Midwest Heat
6:58 Brazil Acreage
8:20 Argentina Acreage
9:49 Corn Sold to Mexico
Here's the latest scoop on the grain markets and farmer decisions:
🌾 Farmer Adjustments:
Price Pressures: With grain prices under pressure due to projected bumper crops, farmers are facing tough choices. Many are scaling back on fungicide and fertilizer use and delaying investments that could boost productivity and earnings.
Financial Impact: In Illinois, farmers could lose up to $118 per acre for corn and $81 per acre for soybeans this year, as highlighted by a recent WJS article HERE.
🌞 Weather Impact:
Hot and Dry Conditions: A heatwave and minimal rainfall across the Corn Belt have pushed up grain prices slightly. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures rose on Tuesday due to the unfavorable weather forecast. However, prices are still at their lowest levels in 14 years compared to other commodities, weighed down by abundant global and domestic supplies.
🌍 Global Acreage and Production:
Brazil: Soybean acres in Brazil are expected to grow at their slowest rate in over a decade. Despite this, COFCO forecasts a record 168 million metric tons (mmt) soybean crop for the 2024/2025 season, up 14% from the previous year. Soybean acreage is being reduced due to prices near four-year lows.
Argentina: Significant increases in soybean acres are expected as Argentine farmers shift from corn to soybeans due to leafhopper damage. The Rosario grains exchange predicts a 4.9 million-acre reduction in corn planting, with a substantial portion shifting to soybeans. There’s also a possibility that a harsh winter may have reduced the leafhopper population, potentially moderating the expected decline in corn planting.
🌽 USDA Flash Sale:
Corn Sale: On Tuesday, US exporters sold 127,760 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Despite this, total new crop corn export commitments are still among the lowest in the past decade.
Stay informed and adapt to the changing market conditions! 🌽📈🌍

Excessive Heat and "Corn Sweat" Aug 27, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Heat Wave and Corn Sweat
2:24 Grains are "Cheap"
4:41 Brazil Corn Planting
6:06 Indonesia Biofuel
7:26 Crop Ratings
9:22 Grain Shipment Update
🌡️ Extreme Heat in the US Corn Belt
Heat Dome Alert: Scorching temperatures are expected between St. Louis and Chicago today, with heat indices rising to a sweltering 105°F to 115°F. This heat wave might break records across the region.
Expanding Heat: The extreme heat is set to move into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast by mid-week.
Impact on Crops: The high temperatures are anticipated to damage crops, pushing soybean futures higher as traders brace for potential losses.
📉 Grain Prices and Market Trends
Low Grain Prices: Despite the heat, grains like soybeans, corn, and wheat are at their lowest prices since 2010 relative to other commodities.
Record Corn Crops: Recent forecasts from the Pro Farmer tour suggest bumper corn crops in Illinois and Iowa, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
Corn Futures: December corn futures have dropped to their lowest level since 2020, driven by ample supplies and continuous farmer selling.
🌽 Brazil's Corn Planting and Forecast
Slower Planting: Brazilian farmers have begun planting their first corn crop for the 2024/2025 season, but progress is slower this year due to caution over recent frosts.
Lower Crop Forecast: AgRural predicts a 3.5% smaller first corn crop this season, attributed to lower corn prices and potential dry conditions from La Niña.
🇮🇩 Indonesia's Palm Oil-Based Biodiesel Plan
Proposed Increase: The Indonesian president-elect has proposed increasing the palm oil-based biodiesel blend to 50% by early 2025.
Impact: This proposal could significantly boost palm oil consumption, though industry experts express concerns about readiness and testing.
🌾 US Crop Conditions
Corn and Soybean Conditions: US corn conditions declined slightly last week, now rated 65% good to excellent, while soybeans held steady at 67% good to excellent. However, these ratings might drop next week due to the ongoing extreme heat.
Spring Wheat Harvest: The US spring wheat harvest is slightly behind schedule, with 51% completed, just under the average pace.
🚢 US Export Shipments
Corn Shipments: Corn exports declined last week, down 26% from the previous week but still up 49% year-over-year.
Soybean Shipments: Soybean exports saw a slight increase of 1.4% week-over-week, with a significant 26% rise compared to last year.
Wheat Shipments: Wheat exports were up 44% from the previous week and 38% compared to the same time last year.
The extreme weather and market trends are clearly having a big impact on agriculture right now. 🌍 Keep an eye on how these factors develop, especially with the ongoing heat wave and its potentia

MONSTER Soybean Crop + Impossible Old Crop Situation Aug 26, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 Crop Estimates Update:
Corn Yield: Pro Farmer estimates a US national average corn yield of 181.1bpa, slightly lower than the USDA's recent estimate of 183.1bpa. If confirmed, this yield would set a new national record.
Soybean Yield: Pro Farmer estimates a national average soybean yield of 54.9bpa, which is higher than the USDA's estimate of 53.2bpa and could also set a new national record.
Note: Pro Farmer's yield estimates are not purely based on state-by-state findings; they incorporate other factors for a more comprehensive analysis.
⚖️ Legal Victory in South Dakota:
Summit Carbon Solutions: The South Dakota Supreme Court ruled against Summit Carbon Solutions, stating that the company does not qualify as a common carrier. This decision prevents the use of eminent domain to construct their CO2 pipeline across the state.
Implications: The ruling stems from Summit's refusal to disclose agreements with regional ethanol companies, which hindered the court's ability to confirm whether Summit would be transporting a commodity, a requirement for common carrier status.
📉 Fund Traders' Position:
Corn: Funds have a historically large net short position of 257k contracts after selling 4k contracts.
Soybeans: Funds also hold a significant net short position of 168k contracts, having sold 13k contracts.
Wheat: Contrary to corn and soybeans, funds were net buyers of 21k contracts of SRW wheat.
📦 USDA Flash Sale:
Soybeans: A flash sale of 120,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations was reported for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Last week, total flash sales reached 1.4mmt (51 million bushels).
🐄 Cattle on Feed Report:
Market Impact: The report for August was seen as neutral to slightly bearish for the cattle market.
Key Numbers:
Cattle on feed: 100.2% of last year's levels.
Placements in July: 106% of last year, higher than expected.
Marketings: 108% of last year's levels, consistent with expectations.
Implication: The higher-than-expected placements might apply downward pressure on the cattle market.
🏛️ Federal Reserve Update:
Jerome Powell's Speech: Powell indicated that a rate cut is on the horizon, with future decisions more reliant on labor market data than inflation.
Labor Market: The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest in three years.
Next Meeting: The Federal Reserve will convene again on September 17 and 18, where more concrete actions may be outlined.

Traders DON'T CARE About the Crop Tour Aug 23, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Highlights:
Minnesota: Corn yield potential was pegged at 164.9 bpa, significantly down from last year and the lowest since 2012. USDA’s projection remains at 185 bpa, unchanged from last year. Excessive rainfall early in the growing season likely contributed to the reduced yield potential. Soybean pod counts were closer to the three-year tour average, showing relatively better potential.
Iowa: Corn yield potential was recorded at a tour-record 192.8 bpa, up from last year’s 185.8 bpa. USDA's recent projection is a record 209 bpa. Soybean pod counts were notably higher than last year and close to the 2010 tour record. USDA projects Iowa’s soybean yield at 61 bpa, up from 58 bpa last year.
🚂 Canadian Rail Strike Update:
Resolution: Workers at Canadian National Railway will return to work today, following government intervention to end the work stoppage. The strike continues at Canadian Pacific Kansas City, but negotiations are ongoing. Rail operations are expected to resume within days, with a full recovery of shipments taking about a week.
🌱 US Export Commitments:
New Crop: US corn and soybean export commitments for the new crop are weaker than average. New crop soybean sales are the worst since 2019, with Chinese purchases being the 3rd worst in the last 10 years. New crop corn export commitments are the 5th worst in the last decade, with no purchases from China.
🌧️ US Drought Monitor:
Conditions: Drought conditions worsened in several key areas:
Corn: 7% affected
Soybeans: 8% affected
Winter Wheat: 45% affected
Spring Wheat: 21% affected
Cattle: 21% affected
Notable deterioration was seen in Ohio, northern Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the western Dakotas.
🌱 USDA Flash Sales:
Recent Sales:
198,000 mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
110,490 mt (4 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
105,000 mt of soybean cake and meal to Vietnam for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
🐄 Cattle on Feed Report:
Preview: USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report will be released this afternoon at 2:00 pm CST. Pre-report estimates expect cattle on feed as of August 1 to be steady compared to last year, with July placements up 3.2% and marketings up 8.1% year-over-year. A report meeting these expectations is likely to be viewed as bearish for the market.
Stay tuned for more updates and insights as the season progresses! 🌽📈🚂

Excellent Potential in Illinois, Problems in Northwest Iowa (Crop Tour) Aug 22, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Crop Tour Update
3:30 Rail Strike
6:20 Argentina Acreage Decline
7:29 Ethanol Update
8:30 Flash Sales
9:23 Fed Minutes
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Highlights:
Illinois: Corn yield pegged at a record 204.2 bpa, up from last year's 193.7 bpa. USDA’s recent estimate is 225 bpa. Soybean pod counts were impressive at 1,419 per 3x3 plot, up 12% from last year. USDA projects a record soybean yield of 66 bpa, up from 63 bpa last year.
Western Iowa: Strong corn yield potential in west-central and southwest districts, but reduced in the northwest due to early-season rainfall. Soybean potential is similarly strong in the west-central and southwest but weaker in the northwest. USDA forecasts Iowa's corn yield at a record 209 bpa and soybean yield at 61 bpa.
🚂 Canadian Rail Shutdown:
Impact: A lockout of 9,300 workers by Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City began last night due to stalled negotiations with the Teamsters union. The shutdown affects 75% of Canada’s exported goods to the US, including grains and fertilizers. Rail operations in the US and Mexico continue, but the shutdown may cause ripple effects.
🌾 Argentina Corn Acreage:
Forecast: Expected to decline by 17% for the 2024/2025 season due to concerns over leafhoppers and dry conditions. The Buenos Aires grains exchange has already reduced its estimate for the 2023/2024 corn crop by 10 mmt and anticipates fewer acres planted due to lower corn prices.
🚜 US Ethanol Production:
Update: Weekly production rose to 1.1 million barrels per day, up 2.4% from the previous week and 2.7% from last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 23.6 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand was up 1.6% from the previous week and 3.9% year-over-year. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand is up 1% compared to last year.
🌱 US Soybean Flash Sales:
Sales: US exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) to China and 121,000 mt (4 million bushels) to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
📉 Federal Reserve Update:
Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September. Recent minutes show confidence that inflation is trending towards 2%. A rate cut is anticipated due to concerns about a weakening labor market. Recent data also indicated a revision in nonfarm payrolls, expected to be reduced by 818,000, the largest revision since 2009.
Stay tuned for more updates as the Pro Farmer Crop Tour continues and market conditions evolve! 🌾📉🚂

Day 2 Crop Tour + Cattle COLLAPSE Aug 21, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s the latest crop tour and market update:
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings:
Indiana: Corn yield projected at 187.5 bpa, up from last year's 180.9 bpa. USDA’s forecast is higher at 207 bpa. Soybean pod counts soared to 1,409 per 3x3 plot, up 8% from last year. USDA is projecting a record soybean yield of 62 bpa for the state.
Nebraska: Corn yield estimated at 173.3 bpa, up from last year's 167.2 bpa. USDA's forecast is a record 194 bpa. Soybean pod counts are strong at 1,172 per 3x3 plot, up 1% from last year. USDA projects a nearly 15% rise in soybean yield to 59 bpa.
🐄 Cattle Futures:
Market Trends: Cattle futures continue to drop, hitting new lows for each contract month. The selloff follows Vice President Harris’s announcement on tackling "price gouging," which could impact the beef market. Despite historically low beef cow numbers, the market remains bearish. The USDA's monthly cattle on feed report due this Friday will provide further insights.
🌾 Russia's Wheat Crop:
Weather Impact: Late spring frosts, dry conditions, and flooding have harmed Russia's wheat crop. The agriculture ministry maintains a forecast of 86 mmt, but estimates could be reduced. Sovecon’s projection is lower at 83.3 mmt. Geopolitical tensions are also rising with recent missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.
📦 US Soybean Flash Sales:
Recent Sales: US exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China and 239,492 mt (9 million bushels) to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
💵 US Dollar Decline:
Market Impact: The US dollar fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The dollar has weakened as economic concerns ease and with strong retail sales data, markets are anticipating up to four quarter-point rate cuts before year-end.
Stay tuned for more updates as the crop tour continues and market conditions evolve! 🌾📉🚜

Did Corn and Soybeans RALLY on Crop Tour News?? Aug 20, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here's the latest update from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour and more:
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings:
Southeast South Dakota: Corn yield projected at 156.5 bpa, slightly down from last year's 157.4 bpa. Soybean pod counts up 1% from last year. USDA’s projections are more optimistic with a 10 bpa increase in corn and a 3 bpa (7%) rise in soybeans.
Western Ohio: Corn yield at 183.3 bpa, close to last year's 183.9 bpa. Soybean pod counts are down 2% from last year, while USDA projects a 1 bpa (1.7%) increase in soybean yield. Mixed sentiment here—some traders find it friendly for prices, others less clear.
🌾 Corn and Soybean Conditions:
Corn: Rated 67% good to excellent, steady with the previous week and the best rating since 2020. 5% of the crop is mature, ahead of the average.
Soybeans: Rated 68% good to excellent, also the best rating since 2020. 81% of the crop is setting pods, slightly ahead of the average.
🌾 Spring Wheat Harvest: 31% harvested, lagging behind the 36% average. Winter wheat harvest is nearly complete at 96%.
🚂 Canada Rail System Threat: Potential rail strikes by Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City could halt all freight services on Thursday, impacting grain shipments significantly. A stoppage could result in daily losses of $733 million during harvest season.
📦 US Corn and Soybean Shipments:
Corn: 1.2 mmt (46 million bushels) inspected for export, up 18% from the previous week and 128% from last year.
Soybeans: 398,233 mt (15 million bushels) inspected, up 14% from the prior week and 24% from last year. Flash sales included 332,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China and 110,000 mt (4 million bushels) to unknown destinations.
🌾 USDA Flash Sales:
Soybeans: Multiple flash sales reported, with significant amounts sold to China and unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Stay tuned for more updates as the Pro Farmer tour continues and the Canadian rail situation develops! 🚜📉

Crop Tour Week! + Joe's 2023 Corn Sales Aug 19, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Crop Tour Preview
2:37 The Funds
4:38 Joe's Old Crop Corn Sales
6:03 Summit Pipeline Resistance
7:18 EU Crop Problems
9:34 Jackson Hole / Economy
Here’s what’s coming up:
🚜 Pro Farmer Crop Tour: Kicking off this week, the Pro Farmer crop tour will start in Ohio and South Dakota, and then move through Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota. Expect state-by-state findings each evening, with final crop estimates released on Thursday night. This tour has been a staple since 1993. 🗺️
📉 Fund Traders' Positions: Fund traders are holding historically large net short positions across the grain complex. As of August 13, they were net sellers of 4k corn contracts and net buyers of 2k soybean contracts, with a net short of 155k in soybeans. 📊
🌍 Summit Carbon Pipeline: Facing pushback, Summit Carbon Solutions is hosting 23 public meetings in Iowa this week to address landowner concerns. Originally set to start this year, the pipeline’s operational date has been pushed to 2027 due to opposition and regulatory delays. 📉
🌾 EU Wheat Crop Concerns: Poor weather has hit wheat crops hard in the EU. France’s soft wheat crop is projected to be the worst since the 1980s, while Germany’s is also expected to be the worst since 2018. Rain has caused significant setbacks in both countries. 🌧️
🏛️ Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole: Powell is set to speak at Jackson Hole this week, where he's expected to confirm a September rate cut. Following positive CPI and PPI reports, a quarter-point cut seems likely. Keep an eye out for any hints about future rate changes. 📉
Stay tuned for updates from the crop tour and Powell's speech—both could shake things up! 🌟

Food Price Controls?! What Happened to the United States?? Aug 16, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 Corn Futures: After a positive turn on Monday, Dec24 corn futures are struggling to maintain momentum. With considerable bushels still unpriced by farmers, any rallies are getting capped. Check out the latest movements on this chart! 📉
🚜 John Deere's Earnings Jump: Despite layoffs and a tough year, John Deere's stock popped 4% after beating subdued Q3 expectations! They're navigating a rocky 2024 with a projected net income of $7 billion. 📊
🌱 Record Soybean Crush: NOPA's July numbers are in! With 182.9 million bushels processed, it's the highest for July ever, surpassing expectations. However, soybean oil stocks dipped to 1.5 billion pounds, hitting the lowest since last December. 📉
🌾 USDA Proposes Easing 45Z Tax Credits: Secretary Vilsack shared plans to modify the 45Z requirements, making it more practical for farmers by allowing more diverse practices and extending credits beyond just corn and soybeans. 📜
🏛️ Kamala Harris Targets Corporate Price-Gouging: Set to announce a proposal this Friday, Harris is taking aim at industry giants, especially in food and groceries, to tackle price-gouging and protect consumers. She's also eyeing cuts in drug and housing costs. 🗣️
🌍 US Corn Exports Slump: Last week's export sales were disheartening, hitting a marketing-year low with only 5 million bushels sold. 📉
🌦️ US Drought Update: The drought monitor shows slight improvements in Ohio and Kentucky, but worsening conditions in Missouri and Illinois. The majority of the Corn Belt experienced dry and cool conditions last week. 🌾

Drought in Brazil: Too Early to Matter?? Aug 15, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here's the latest rundown on some critical updates:
🔥 Amazon Drought Worsens: The drought in Brazil's Amazon region is hitting harder than last year, complicating grain shipments. With the Amazon River’s water levels dropping, shipping companies face increased costs and logistical headaches. The Brazilian government is stepping in with $90 million for dredging to help keep the river navigable. 🛳️🌾
📉 Inflation Drops: The CPI rose only 2.9% year-over-year in July, marking the lowest inflation rate since 2021 and hinting at potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. The labor market’s signs of cooling are adding more pressure for a rate reduction. 📊💸
🌱 NOPA’s July Data Incoming: Today could reveal a record July crush with NOPA members potentially processing 182.4 million bushels of soybeans. Ending soybean oil stocks might also touch the lowest levels since January, adding another layer to market dynamics. ⏳📈
🌧️ Weather Update: Scattered rains are moving across the Corn Belt, offering some relief, though many areas remain dry. The forecast suggests normal to below-normal temperatures, cooling off after recent heat. 🌦️🌡️
⛽ Ethanol Production Up: Ethanol production nudged up last week, with stocks showing a slight decrease. This movement aligns with a subtle increase in gasoline demand, although it's still below last year’s levels. 🌽🚗
Keep an eye on these developments as they could influence market trends and policy decisions! What do you think the potential rate cuts could mean for the markets?

Biofuel News: Either Bad or Missing Aug 14, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Bad Biofuel News
4:00 US Weather Update
6:36 Cargill Revenue Decline
7:34 Egypt Wheat Purchase
8:39 Lousy Flash Sales
9:15 Wholesale Inflation
Thanks for the detailed update! Here’s a quick summary of today's key points:
💼 Darling Ingredients' Stock Surge: Shares skyrocketed up to 16% due to proposed changes in California’s low-carbon fuel program, favoring Darling's use of used cooking oil over seed oils like soybean and canola in green diesel. 📈🌱
🌦️ Weather Update: Rains graced Nebraska and are moving into Iowa, with more rainfall expected across parts of the US Corn Belt in the coming days. Temperature-wise, we’re looking at near-normal conditions for most of the corn and soybean areas. 🌧️☀️
📉 Cargill’s Revenue Decline: The first decline in years, dropping nearly 10% to $160 billion due to global grain surpluses and tight crush margins, coupled with high cattle prices impacting profits. 📊🐄
🌾 Egypt’s Wheat Negotiations: Egypt aims to capitalize on low wheat prices by purchasing 1.8mmt from Russia and other sellers, trying to bulk up its reserves while facing pricing challenges. 🌍🍞
💹 Flash Sales and Market Reactions: Notable soybean and corn sales to China and Mexico, respectively, and a positive stock market response to lower-than-expected US producer prices hinting at easing inflationary pressures. 📈🌽📉
Seems like a dynamic mix of policy, weather, and market movements shaping the day! How are these changes impacting your perspective or plans?

"Extremely Bearish" Soybean Projections from USDA Aug 13, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 USDA Analysis
5:34 Crop Progress
7:55 Argentina Strike
8:40 Grain Shipment Update
9:42 Flash Sales are Bearish?
10:35 Crude Rally
Here’s a quick recap of the latest happenings in agriculture and energy markets:
🌽 USDA Corn and Soybean Report:
Soybeans are smashing records with a projected yield of 53.2 bushels per acre, predicting a bumper crop this year! 🌱
Corn isn't far behind, with a strong showing anticipated at 183.1 bushels per acre. However, both planted and harvested areas saw some cuts. 🚜
📊 Crop Conditions:
Corn and soybean conditions remain robust, matching or exceeding expectations, which is great news for this year’s yields. 📈
🚢 Argentine Grain Shipments:
Strikes have rocked the ports but are on pause for now, allowing shipments to slowly stabilize. 🛳️
🌾 US Grain Shipments:
Corn exports dipped last week but are still significantly up from last year, while wheat shipments are looking particularly strong. 🌎
🛢️ Crude Oil Prices:
Tensions in the Middle East have pushed WTI crude prices up, with potential impacts on global supply looming. ⛽
Always exciting (and a bit nerve-wracking!) to see how global events shake up the markets! What are your thoughts on these developments?

UGLY: $3s and $9s (Corn and Soybeans) Aug 12, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Row Crop Fresh Lows
2:10 The Funds
3:51 USDA Preview
7:18 No Commodity Inflation?
8:56 France Wheat Problems
10:10 Flash Sales
🌾 Grain Market Blues: Overnight, the Dec24 corn contract took another hit, diving below $3.94 per bushel, while the Nov24 soybean contract slipped under $10 per bushel for the first time since January 2021! 📉 Farmers are rushing to offload last season’s crops as bumper US yields loom large, but buyers aren’t biting despite the bargains. 🚜💔
📊 Fund Traders’ Big Bets: The latest scoop from CFTC shows that while funds scooped up 52k corn contracts, they’re still sitting on a hefty net short of 249k contracts. Soybeans saw a bit of buying too, with funds picking up 13k contracts, yet the net short remains a significant 157k contracts. SRW wheat got a small boost with an additional 5k contracts bought. Traders are bracing for the market's next move! 🌽📈📉
🕒 USDA Report Watch: All eyes are on the USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE report dropping today at 11am CST. Market whispers hint at a boost in corn and soybean yield projections thanks to the season’s smooth sailing. However, there might be a tweak down in harvested acres. Will this stir the pot for corn and soy carryouts? Stay tuned! 📊🌱
💼 Hedge Funds Hold Their Ground: In a broader scope, hedge funds are holding a massive net short across the commodity sector, showing their biggest bearish stance since 2011. From recessions fears to overflowing supplies and a robust US dollar, it’s a tough season for commodities. 📉💡
🇫🇷 French Wheat Woes: Over in France, it’s not just the markets feeling the heat but the fields too. This year’s soft wheat haul could be the skimpiest in four decades at 26.3mmt, a stark 25% drop from last year, thanks to some truly crummy weather. French farmers are feeling the pinch and are knocking on the government's door for some much-needed aid. 🌾🚜
📦 Flash Sales Frenzy: On the brighter side, the US made some headway with soybean sales, including a neat 132,000mt to China and a notable batch of soybean cake and meal to Colombia. Plus, an additional 212,000mt of soybeans found mysterious buyers. Every bit helps in these trying times! 🇨🇳🇨🇴📈
Stay tuned as we navigate these choppy market waters together! What will today’s USDA report unveil? 🧐📊

Does Matt Bennett Have Anything Nice to Say? (Corn and Soybean Prices) Aug 09, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 Market Update: It’s been a rollercoaster for the Dec24 corn and Nov24 soybean contracts! Both hit fresh lows on Thursday, weighed down by farmers rushing to sell old crops, expectations of bountiful US harvests, and sluggish export sales. Money managers are keeping their chips on the table with near-record short positions. 📉
🔍 USDA Report Anticipation: All eyes on the USDA's Crop Production and WASDE report this Monday! Market whispers suggest an uptick in corn and soybean yield projections due to upbeat crop ratings and decent weather. Yet, there might be a twist with expected cuts in harvested acreage. Stay tuned for potential adjustments in corn and soybean carryouts. 🌽📈
🚢 Export News: Corn export sales are looking up, smashing expectations with a boost from Mexico as the top buyer. Soybean sales are also strong, thanks to a boost from China. Wheat's doing alright but could be better, with Taiwan stepping up as the top buyer. 🌎🛳️
🏗️ Big Moves in Brazil: CHS is diving into a massive project with Rumo SA at Brazil’s bustling port of Santos, aiming to significantly up their grain and fertilizer handling game. This $440 million venture underscores Brazil's aggressive crop export strategy. 🇧🇷🌾
🌦️ Weather Woes: Last week's scattered showers gave some relief to parts of the Corn Belt, but it’s still dry out west with worsening drought conditions in Nebraska and Missouri. The High Plains aren't faring much better, with Kansas and Oklahoma feeling the heat. 🌞🌾
💰 CF Industries Profits Soar: Thanks to strong global nitrogen prices, CF Industries saw a hefty profit surge, with their stocks jumping 8.5% in one day! Restrictions on natural gas and a dip in Chinese nitrogen exports have kept prices high, fueling this gain. 📊💹
Stay tuned for more updates, and keep an eye on those charts! Let's see how the market swings after the USDA report on Monday! 📉📈

EPA Investigates Imported Cooking Oil - Farmers to Benefit?? Aug 08, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here's the latest buzz in the world of agriculture and energy! 🌾⚡️
EPA Investigation on Biofuel Feedstocks: The EPA has launched probes into a couple of biofuel producers due to suspicions of using fraudulent feedstocks, like mislabeling virgin palm oil as used cooking oil. This could be a big deal since it impacts environmental goals and industry integrity! 🕵️‍♂️🌍
New SAF Plant in Nebraska: Big news! DG Fuels is setting up a new sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant in Phelps County, NE. This massive project is expected to produce 193 million gallons of SAF annually and create 650 jobs, with a groundbreaking impact expected by 2030. 🌱✈️
Weather Update: Rain dances across Kansas, Nebraska, and parts of Iowa while Tropical Storm Debby brings more rain to the east coast. Cooler temps are on the menu for the Corn Belt, with a possible heat spike in the next 10-15 days. Stay dry or enjoy the puddles! ☔️🌡️
Ethanol Production Dips: Ethanol production took a slight dip last week. It's a tightrope walk with production levels balancing on last year's figures. Fuel demand seems to be a bit shaky lately. Keep an eye on those numbers! 📉🌽
Mortgage Rates Hit Low: Homebuyers, rejoice! Mortgage rates have dropped, with the 30-year fixed rate dipping to its lowest since May 2023. Looks like it's a good time to consider refinancing or buying that dream home as more people are jumping into the market. 🏠💸
Stay tuned for more updates and keep those charts handy!

117 MILLION Acres of Soybeans - Is USDA Wrong About Brazil?? Aug 07, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Bad Economic Data
0:55 Brazil Soybean Acres
3:01 Big Egypt Wheat Buy
6:02 Green Plains Shares Plunge
7:37 US Weather
8:47 Stock Market Recovery
Here’s a quick roundup of the latest in agriculture and markets! 🌱📉
Brazilian Soybean Acreage: Growth in Brazilian soybean acres is expected to be minimal this year, thanks to the lowest soy prices in nearly four years. Despite this, it marks the 18th consecutive year of acreage growth! 🇧🇷🌿
Egypt's Wheat Shopping Spree: Egypt plans to snap up 3.8 million metric tons of wheat next week, taking advantage of the lowest global wheat prices in years. They're stocking up big time! 🇪🇬🌾
Green Plains’ Financial Woes: It’s a tough quarter for Green Plains, with a significant share price drop and a 28% revenue fall. The CEO remains hopeful for a turnaround next quarter. 📉🌽
US Weather & Crop Conditions: The US radar is chill today, with cooler temps across the Corn Belt. Some rains are on the radar for the Plains, while Tropical Storm Debby brings heavy rains to the east coast. ☔️🌡️
Stock Market Rebounds: After a massive sell-off, the S&P 500 bounced back with a 1% gain. Bargain hunters, unite! A little roller coaster in the stock markets but signs point to potential recoveries. 📈💹
Stay tuned for more updates and always keep an eye on those charts! 🚜💼

"Haul of Shame" - US Farmers Puke Old Crop Bushels at Loss Aug 06, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 "Haul of Shame"
3:04 Stock Market Collapse
5:51 US Crop Ratings
8:52 Ukraine Corn Problems
10:18 US Weather Update
11:34 Grain Shipment Update
It sounds like there's a mix of market dynamics and weather challenges affecting the agricultural sector right now! 🌾💨
Grain Traders like ADM and Bunge: With farmers selling their stored grain to make space, ADM and Bunge might see some benefits despite farmers facing low prices. This is a tough spot for the farmers but could be a strategic opportunity for big traders. 📉🌾
US Economy and Stock Markets: Monday's market tumble due to economic worries was a shocker! But the bounce back in Japan's Nikkei index shows how unpredictable things can be. 📊💥
US Corn and Soybean Conditions: Some ups and downs in crop ratings but generally holding steady. It's crucial for these to stay stable as the season progresses to avoid impacting the harvest output too severely. 🌽🌱
Ukraine’s Corn Crop and Hot Weather: The heatwave in July might cut down Ukraine's corn output significantly. Tough times for their agriculture with potential ripple effects on global markets. 🇺🇦🔥
Rainfall and Drought Conditions: Not much rain in key US farming areas could spell trouble if it continues, especially with that heat on the way! Keeping an eye on the weather forecasts will be key. ☔🌞
Corn Shipments: Impressive numbers for US corn exports last week! It’s great to see such strong figures, which could be a positive signal for the market. 🚢🌽
Seems like a lot of moving parts in the agricultural markets right now! Keeping updated on these trends will be key for anyone in the industry.

Recession Fears Mount: Commodities at Risk?? Aug 05, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Hey there! Welcome to today's market update. Here's what's been happening:
🌍 Global Market Trends
Recession Fears: US recession concerns have shaken global equity markets. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000, falling short of the estimated 185,000.
Stock Market Reaction: The stock market responded with significant declines. The Dow Jones fell by 1.5%, the S&P 500 by 1.8%, and the Nasdaq by 2.4%. Japan's Nikkei index experienced a historic drop of 12.4%, its largest one-day decline since 1987.
Volatility Spike: The VIX, Wall Street's "fear index," surged to its highest level since June 2020. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate a 25% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months.
📉 Commodities Outlook
Hedge Funds Bearish: Economic concerns have led hedge funds to take a bearish stance on commodity futures for the first time since 2016. This shift is influenced by the economic slowdown in China and an abundant supply of commodities like corn and nickel.
Corn Market: Fund traders continue to hold a massive net short position in the corn market. The net short of 300k contracts is the fourth largest on record.
Soybeans and Wheat: Funds were net buyers of 3k soybean contracts, with a net short of 170k contracts, the third largest on record. They were also net sellers of 3k contracts of SRW wheat.
🌧️ Weather and Agriculture
US Corn Belt Weather: Minimal rainfall over the weekend, with scattered rains in parts of Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio. The majority of Iowa and Illinois remained dry. The next 5-10 days are expected to bring more rain to parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and the central/northern US Plains. Temperatures will likely stay below normal across the region.
Soybean Sales: USDA reported significant soybean sales to China, with 202,000mt (7 million bushels) sold for the 2024/2025 marketing year, following Thursday's sale of 132,000mt (5 million bushels).
Stay tuned for more updates, and don't forget to subscribe and let us know your thoughts in the comments! It's crucial to stay informed with the latest news and trends. 🌟📊

RECORD Corn and Soybean Yields Predicted Aug 02, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 StoneX US Crop Estimates
Yesterday, the well-followed private group, StoneX, released new US crop estimates based on a customer survey:
Corn Yield: 182.3 bpa (USDA: 181.0 bpa)
Corn Crop: 15.2 billion bushels (USDA: 15.1 billion bushels)
Soybean Yield: 52.6 bpa (USDA: 52.0 bpa)
Soybean Crop: 4.48 billion bushels (USDA: 4.43 billion bushels)
🗺️ See graphic below for the state-by-state breakdown.
📉 US Corn Export Sales
Last week, US corn export sales were poor, hitting a marketing-year low:
Net Corn Sales: 167,900mt (7 million bushels)
Comparison: -49% from the previous week, -60% from the prior 4-week average
Largest Buyer: Mexico
📈 Net soybean sales exceeded expectations:
Net Soybean Sales: 376,400mt (14 million bushels)
Comparison: Significantly up from the previous week and prior 4-week average
Largest Buyer: Germany
📊 Net wheat sales were near the lower end of expectations:
Net Wheat Sales: 286,600mt (11 million bushels)
Comparison: -7% from the previous week, -41% from the prior 4-week average
Largest Buyer: Indonesia
🌱 USDA Flash Sale & Drought Monitor
The USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans on Thursday:
Sale to China: 132,000mt (5 million bushels) for 2024/2025 marketing year
Year-to-Date: China has made two flash sales totaling 264,000mt (10 million bushels)
The weekly drought monitor data indicated limited rainfall across the Corn Belt, worsening drought conditions.
Drought Impact:
Corn: 5%
Soybeans: 5%
Winter Wheat: 32%
Spring Wheat: 16%
Cattle: 15%
🐄 Cattle Prices & Market Concerns
Live and feeder cattle prices fell sharply due to fund selling, weakening consumer demand, and economic concerns:
September Feeder Cattle: -2.1%
October Live Cattle: -1.7%
Boxed Beef: Choice cutout fell $2/cwt to $312.79/cwt
Despite the futures decline, cash cattle prices have been steady.
📉 Stock Market & Economic Indicators
Recession fears sent the stock market tumbling:
Dow Jones: -1.2%
S&P 500: -1.4%
Nasdaq: -2.3%
10-Year Treasury Yield: Fell below 4% for the first time since February
Jobless Claims: Highest level in eleven months
US Manufacturing Activity: Contracted last month, hitting an eight-month low
💬 Stay informed! Don't forget to subscribe and share your thoughts in the comments below. Keeping up with these updates is crucial for staying ahead in the market! 📊📉

USDA to Change Acreage Procedures: Big Changes in August?? Aug 01, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 USDA Acreage Changes
2:33 December Corn Below $4
4:05 Severe Nebraska/Iowa Weather
5:30 Imported Feedstocks and Biofuels
7:39 Airline Climate Goals
8:54 Record Ethanol Output
9:50 Corn Flash Sale
10:42 Bunge Earnings
🌽 USDA is shaking things up by reviewing FSA acreage data earlier this year for their August report! 📈 This could give a clearer picture sooner about crop sizes. See the press release HERE.
💸 Corn futures took a dive below $4 per bushel 📉, as traders worry about a potentially bumper US corn yield and slow export vibes. With fund traders betting big on these low prices, it’s a wild ride!
🌪️ Wild winds might have whipped through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, causing potential crop chaos. 🚜 Early reports hint at significant damage, but details are still blowing in the wind!
📜 US senators are stepping up, sending a letter to Treasury Secretary Yellen 💌, pushing for biofuel tax credits to favor home-grown feedstocks. They're hoping for a greener future with domestic production at the forefront!
✈️ Airlines are hitting turbulence over sustainable fuel goals, with some even abandoning their climate targets due to the slow SAF production. 🌍 Global SAF supply isn’t keeping up, posing a real challenge for eco-friendly flying.
🏭 Ethanol production hit a record-tying high last week, but the fuel's future could see shifts as US lawmakers push for domestic sources in biofuels. 🌾 Meanwhile, heavy hitters in the ag industry like Bunge are feeling the pinch from global grain gluts, showing a tough quarter.
🌾 Meanwhile, USDA flashed a sale alert 🚨, with 104,572mt of corn flying off to unknown destinations. And in the broader scene, Bunge’s profits took a nosedive 📉 due to hefty global grain supplies and sluggish sales. It's a tough season for grain giants!
🔥 With all this action, the agricultural and energy sectors are buzzing! What part of this news do you find most intriguing?

Soybean Prices Approach "Trade War" Levels Jul 31, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Soybean Prices Collapse
2:23 Cooler US Temps
5:18 ADM Profits Tumble
6:27 BP and Biofuels
8:08 Bird Flu Cash
The latest developments in agricultural markets and related industries highlight a mix of challenges and strategic responses:
Soybean Market Trends: The significant drop in soybean futures to their lowest level since October 2020 is a clear indicator of market sensitivity to weather forecasts and crop conditions. The market's reaction, with a potential above-trend yield expectation, suggests a shift towards a less bullish outlook due to improving crop conditions and a less-threatening weather forecast.
US Corn Belt Weather: The expected arrival of cooler temperatures could alleviate some stress on crops, potentially supporting crop health if aligned with adequate rainfall. The forecast of more rain in key areas could further stabilize crop conditions, which is critical during the growth phases of corn and soybeans.
ADM's Financial Performance: ADM's profit decline reflects broader market dynamics, including global supply pressures and regional shifts in demand. This underscores the interconnected nature of global agricultural markets and the direct impact of international crop yields and trading dynamics on U.S. companies.
BP's Profit Performance: In contrast to ADM, BP's better-than-expected profits and dividend increase reflect a different aspect of commodity markets—energy. BP's strategy adjustments, including scaling back some commitments and operations, highlight the ongoing balancing act companies must perform in response to evolving market and regulatory environments.
Public Health Initiatives in Agriculture: The CDC’s investment in mitigating the spread of bird flu among farm workers is a proactive measure addressing the intersection of public health and agriculture. By focusing on education and preventive measures, there is a clear recognition of the potential risks posed by zoonotic diseases within agricultural settings.
Each of these points illustrates the complexities of managing agricultural production, commodity trading, and related industries amid fluctuating market conditions, environmental factors, and global economic shifts. For stakeholders in these sectors, staying informed and adaptable to these dynamics is crucial for strategic planning and operational adjustments.

Above-Trend Yields?? Crop Ratings Say "YES" Jul 30, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Crop Ratings are Strong
3:30 US Weather Update
7:47 Argentina Wheat Problems
9:05 Grain Shipments
10:17 "Pro-Bitcoin" Ticket
Detailed update on agricultural conditions and market dynamics! It seems like there are several key factors currently affecting the markets:
US Corn and Soybean Conditions: There's a slight improvement in corn conditions which might be a positive signal for the markets, but soybean conditions have dipped slightly. The variations in state-specific ratings could indicate localized issues that might influence future yield outcomes.
Wheat Harvest and Conditions: The winter wheat harvest is progressing well, slightly ahead of schedule, which might ease some supply concerns. However, the decline in spring wheat conditions could be worrisome, signaling potential issues in upcoming supply levels.
Weather Impacts: The report of rain in key Corn Belt areas like Iowa and Illinois might provide some relief to crops, but the forecasted above-normal temperatures could stress plants, especially if not accompanied by sufficient rainfall. Additionally, the expected cool down around August 9th might provide a respite from the heat.
International Concerns: Argentina’s wheat crop facing threats from freezing temperatures and drought could have significant implications for global wheat supply and pricing, especially with the Rosario grain exchange already cutting forecasts for planted acres.
US Crop Shipments: Strong corn shipments reflect a robust demand, and the higher-than-expected soybean shipments could indicate healthy external demand. However, wheat shipments’ variability needs monitoring as it might impact pricing and stock levels.
Political Influence on Markets: Former President Donald Trump's statements at the Bitcoin Conference highlight the potential impact of political figures on market sentiments and regulatory expectations, particularly in the cryptocurrency markets.
These elements combined depict a complex and dynamic scenario for agricultural markets, influenced by both environmental conditions and broader economic and political factors. Monitoring these developments will be crucial for stakeholders to navigate potential risks and opportunities.

Why Did Soybean Prices COLLAPSE on Friday?? Jul 29, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Soybean Collapse
2:05 Weather Forecast Shift
5:30 "The Funds"
6:31 Weaker Crude Prices
7:51 EPA Court News
Friday's market movements brought significant changes across various sectors, particularly in agriculture and energy:
Soybean Futures Decline: The sharp drop in soybean futures can be attributed to a mix of weather-related forecasts and weak export demands. The reported record net short positions by large money managers suggest a bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. This decline in prices, despite some favorable early-week conditions, highlights the volatility and sensitivity of commodity markets to shifts in weather forecasts and trade dynamics.
Corn and Soybean Weather Forecast: The updated weather forecast, which now predicts widespread rainfall across much of the US Corn Belt, could potentially ease some concerns regarding crop stress and aid in crop development. This shift away from extreme heat is likely beneficial for crop conditions but will continue to be closely monitored.
Fund Traders' Positions in Corn and Soybeans: The changes in the positions of fund traders, particularly the net buying in corn, could indicate some expectations of market tightening or correcting from previous positions. However, the overall significant net short position suggests continued caution or pessimism about the future price direction.
Oil Market Trends: The continuous fall in oil prices last week reflects broader economic concerns, particularly regarding China's economic health. The rate cut by China, which was unexpected, signals potential ongoing issues in demand, especially for energy. This could have ripple effects globally, affecting not just commodity markets but also broader economic sentiments and future demand projections.
Legal Developments in Biofuel Waivers: The federal appeals court's decision to overturn the EPA’s denial of biofuel waivers for small oil refineries and send it back for review could introduce more uncertainty in the biofuels market. This decision may affect the blending obligations and financial burdens on small refiners, potentially impacting the biofuel market dynamics.
These developments reflect a complex interplay of market dynamics, regulatory decisions, and environmental factors that market participants will need to navigate in the coming weeks. Each of these elements not only impacts immediate pricing and trading strategies but also long-term planning and policy considerations in the respective sectors.

US Soybean Sales to China are Down 97% - Why?? Jul 26, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
It seems like a mix of positive economic indicators and challenging agricultural conditions are shaping the current landscape:
US Corn and Soybean Sales: The reported decrease in net corn and soybean sales underscores a softer demand or competitive global market conditions. Japan and the Netherlands being the largest buyers indicate continued reliance on specific key markets. The ongoing sales challenges might impact pricing and farmer decisions moving forward.
Flash Sales of Soybeans: The consistent flash sales to unknown destinations may hint at strategic buying interests or stockpiling tendencies among purchasers. Such movements could potentially stabilize prices or lead to speculative trading behaviors.
Heat and Drought Concerns: The ongoing severe weather warnings could have a substantial impact on crop conditions and yield forecasts. Persistent heat and emerging drought conditions across significant agricultural regions like the Southern Plains and parts of the Midwest could exacerbate stress on crops, potentially leading to reduced yields and higher prices.
Drought Monitor and Agricultural Impact: The worsening drought conditions in strategic agricultural zones like southern Ohio and northeast Illinois might contribute to concerns over crop health and productivity. Improvements in other regions due to recent rains provide a slightly mixed outlook, suggesting localized impacts.
Record Spring Wheat Yield in North Dakota: The high yield projections for North Dakota's spring wheat are promising for supply but may press down prices further, especially if combined with broader domestic supply pressures. The presence of crop diseases like scab could affect the quality and marketability of the yield, influencing overall profitability.
US Economic Growth and Inflation: The stronger-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter is a positive signal for overall economic stability. However, the high credit card delinquencies reported could indicate underlying consumer financial stress, which might impact future consumer spending and economic resilience.
Monetary Policy Outlook: The expectation of steady rates in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting followed by a potential rate cut could influence investment and spending decisions across sectors, including agriculture.
Each of these factors plays a critical role in shaping the economic and agricultural landscapes, affecting everything from policy decisions to day-to-day operations for businesses and farms.

Is Trump Really "Bluffing" About Mexico?? Grain Implications?? Jul 25, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Trump and Mexico
2:37 Excessive Heat
5:56 Wheat Tour Day 2
6:58 Ethanol Production
8:17 China Livestock Limitations
The updates provided reflect a dynamic range of global and domestic issues that could influence market behaviors and economic strategies:
Mexican Automotive Trade: President Lopez Obrador's dismissal of former President Trump's threats to ban Mexican-made cars highlights the complexities of international trade policies. Obrador’s confidence stems from past U.S. administrations' support for free trade agreements, suggesting that significant policy changes might face practical challenges and opposition due to their potential impact on American consumers and broader economic relationships.
Heatwave in the Western Corn Belt: The Climate Prediction Center’s warning about excessive heat across the western Corn Belt and US Plains is critical as it could exacerbate the "rapid onset drought," affecting crop yields, and agricultural productivity. This situation demands close monitoring as prolonged heat could lead to significant agricultural disruptions.
Wheat Production Forecasts: The Wheat Quality Council’s tour reporting potential record yields in North Dakota provides a positive outlook for wheat production. However, the overall impact on wheat prices will depend on global supply conditions, including international production rates and trade policies.
US Ethanol Production and Demand: The slight decline in weekly ethanol production juxtaposed with the rise in implied gasoline demand suggests fluctuations in the biofuel market that could influence corn markets, given corn’s role as a primary feedstock for ethanol in the U.S.
China’s Dairy and Beef Industry Regulation: China’s decision to regulate the size of dairy and beef herds to stabilize falling prices reflects the government’s attempt to balance market supply with declining consumer demand amid economic challenges. This regulatory approach could impact global dairy and beef markets, potentially affecting export opportunities and global price structures.
These developments collectively indicate significant geopolitical and environmental factors at play, impacting commodity markets, trade relations, and economic policies globally. Keeping an eye on these evolving situations will be crucial for stakeholders in the agricultural, energy, and financial sectors.

Government Warning: "Rapid Onset Drought Risk" Jul 24, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 "Rapid Onset Drought"
2:39 Spring Wheat Tour
5:21 Canola and Biofuel
7:40 Flash Sale - China??
8:50 Russian Wheat
10:00 Real Estate Softens
The series of updates you've shared touches on a variety of critical factors affecting agricultural markets and beyond:
Weather Conditions: The ongoing excessive heat and emerging drought conditions in the western Corn Belt and US Plains pose significant risks to agricultural productivity, especially in areas already marked by the National Weather Service. The lack of expected rainfall over the next 5 to 10 days could exacerbate these conditions, potentially impacting crop yields and inflating market prices due to reduced supply.
Wheat and Canola Production:
Wheat: The Wheat Quality Council’s tour showing potential record yields in parts of North Dakota offers a positive outlook for spring wheat production, despite concerns over diseases like fusarium and head blight. This could influence wheat market dynamics, potentially stabilizing prices if yields are indeed high.
Canola: As an emerging feedstock for renewable fuels, canola’s increased production and environmental benefits highlight its growing importance. However, potential policy shifts under a new administration could impact the renewable fuels market and canola's role within it.
Corn Market and Exports:
Recent flash sales of corn to unknown destinations and Mexico indicate ongoing robust demand for U.S. corn. This demand could help to stabilize or potentially increase corn prices, particularly if supply concerns arise from the worsening drought conditions.
Russian Grain Production: The upward revision in Russia's grain and wheat production forecasts by Sovecon contrasts with previous concerns about damage from adverse weather conditions. This development could influence global grain markets by increasing supply and potentially exerting downward pressure on international grain prices.
US Housing Market: The record pace of home purchase cancellations in June reflects broader economic pressures such as high interest rates and soaring home prices. This trend could have ripple effects across the economy, influencing consumer spending and potentially affecting broader market sentiment.
These developments highlight the interconnected nature of agricultural markets with broader economic indicators and policy environments. As such, they provide critical insights for market participants and policymakers alike.

China's Surprise Rate Cut: Demand Incoming?? Jul 23, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Chinese Demand Incoming?
2:06 Heat for the US Corn Belt?
5:20 US Crop Ratings
8:15 Grain Shipment Update
9:10 Flash Sale to Mexico
9:48 "Rotation" Trade
It looks like a mix of developments across various sectors is influencing market dynamics recently. Here’s a concise overview of the updates:
China's Economic Measures: China's interest rate cut is a targeted approach to revitalize borrowing and spending amid ongoing economic challenges, including deflation. While this move has stirred some optimism in commodity markets, it's viewed as insufficient alone to significantly alter economic momentum.
U.S. Corn Belt Weather: As heat waves are predicted to affect crop-growing regions, concerns about potential stress on crops could impact market prices and agricultural productivity. The forecast suggests a clear division in rainfall distribution which could exacerbate conditions in already dry areas.
Agricultural Conditions and Progress:
Corn: A slight decline in the good to excellent ratings for corn might be a signal for cautious optimism among traders, reflecting the mixed conditions across states.
Soybeans: Stable conditions for soybeans show a steady progress, which is encouraging for this year’s production.
Wheat: The wheat harvest is progressing swiftly, which may influence wheat prices and availability in the markets.
Commodity Trade:
Corn and Soybeans Shipments: There’s a notable fluctuation in shipments, with corn experiencing a drop and soybeans seeing an increase. This variability can impact pricing and supply perceptions on the global stage.
Export Sales: Regular business with Mexico underscores the ongoing demand for U.S. corn, which is critical for market stability.
Market Dynamics: The shift in the stock market, with smaller cap indices outperforming the larger cap S&P 500, suggests a broader reevaluation among investors. This could be driven by political expectations, monetary policy anticipations, or simply a market correction.
These elements combined provide a comprehensive snapshot of the current economic and agricultural landscapes, influencing decisions from the ground level in farms to macroeconomic policies and global market reactions.

Hot and Dry?? Soybean and Spring Wheat Crops at Risk Jul 22, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🚨 Daily Agricultural and Economic Update 📊🌍
🌡️ Following another 5 days of cooler temps, 🔥 heat returns to US Corn Belt this weekend. Above-normal temps expected for 15 days. 🌧️ Next 10 days mostly dry; Euro model predicts minimal rain this week. Some rain possible for Iowa and Minnesota in 5-10 day forecast, leaving much of US corn and soybean areas dry. Extended GFS shows rain for eastern Corn Belt in early August; west remains dry.
🌽🌱 Fund traders maintain massive net short in corn market. CFTC data: "the funds" net buyers of 4k corn contracts; net short of 353k contracts, second largest on record. Funds net sellers of 20k soybean contracts; net short of 183k contracts, largest on record. Net sellers of 4k SRW wheat contracts.
📉 Ag groups urge domestic feedstocks in 45Z guidelines for tax credits to benefit US farmers and environment.
🐄 USDA reports flash sale of soybean cake and meal; 105,000mt sold Friday, 210,000mt total for 2024/2025 delivery. Cattle on Feed report viewed as neutral to somewhat positive. 📊
🔔 Stay Updated:
For more detailed analysis and predictions, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide regular updates to help you stay informed about the key factors affecting agricultural markets and the global economy.

Was Yesterday's LARGE Flash Sale of Soybeans Made By China?? Jul 19, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🚨 Daily Agricultural and Economic Update 📊🌍

🌱 USDA made a significant soybean sale announcement on Thursday, selling 510,000mt (19mil bushels) of soybeans and 150,000mt of soybean cake and meal for 2024/2025 delivery to undisclosed destinations.

🌧️ Weekly drought monitor data from USDA showed improved conditions in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, and Iowa due to recent rainfall, but worsened conditions in southern Ohio and eastern Kentucky where precipitation was scarce. 📉 Drought affected various crops: Corn 5%, Soybeans 5%, Winter Wheat 24%, Spring Wheat 12%, Cattle 15%.

🌽 US corn export sales declined, totaling 437,800mt (17mil bushels) with Japan as the top buyer. 📈 Soybean sales increased sharply to 360,100mt (13mil bushels), largely driven by China. 🌾 Wheat sales were robust at 578,500mt (21mil bushels), with South Korea leading purchases.

🏦 The Federal Reserve plans interest rate cuts amidst a cooling economy; jobless claims have risen steadily in 2024, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.1%, the highest since 2021.

🗳️ Despite calls to delay rate cuts until after the election, the Fed insists on apolitical decision-making.

🔔 Stay Updated:

For more detailed analysis and predictions, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide regular updates to help you stay informed about the key factors affecting agricultural markets and the global economy.

SAF Capacity to Increase by 1,400% - Corn Ethanol Implications?? Jul 18, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here's a breakdown of key developments:
SAF Production Surge: The U.S. is seeing a significant increase in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity, set to rise by 1,400% this year. With new plants coming online, the capacity could reach nearly 30,000 barrels per day. This aligns with the White House’s ambitious goal to meet all U.S. aviation fuel demands with SAF by 2050.
Yen's Sudden Spike: The Japanese yen has notably appreciated, raising questions about potential government intervention. This comes after a prolonged period of weakness against the dollar, which has recently seen a downturn due to signals from the Federal Reserve about potential rate cuts.
Corn Belt Weather Forecast: Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected across the U.S. Corn Belt, with minimal rainfall anticipated over the next 5 days. This could impact agricultural activities and crop outcomes in the region.
Ethanol Production Increases: U.S. ethanol production has seen a rise, with stocks slightly adjusting. However, implied gasoline demand is down compared to last year, reflecting broader trends in energy consumption and production.
Trump's Tariff Plans: In a recent interview, former President Donald Trump expressed intentions to impose substantial tariffs on China and other countries, targeting Europe specifically over trade imbalances in the auto and agricultural sectors. His stance on Taiwan reflects economic and geopolitical considerations, focusing on the semiconductor industry.
These elements paint a complex picture of international trade dynamics, energy production shifts, and agricultural forecasts, all of which are crucial for understanding current economic trends and their potential impacts on global markets.

JD Vance: Good or Bad for Grain Prices?? Jul 17, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Vance and Trade Wars
3:35 Vance and Ukraine
6:46 US Weather
8:09 Wheat Demand??
9:40 Stock Rally + Fed
🚨 Daily Agricultural and Economic Update 📊🌍
Welcome back to our channel where we discuss the latest in agriculture, economy, and global trade. This week, we've seen significant political developments, unusual weather patterns, and shifts in global markets. Let’s dive into the details:
Political Shifts and Trade
The Republican Party, with Senator J.D. Vance now as Trump's Vice Presidential pick, is taking a stronger stance on trade protectionism. They propose high tariffs on goods from China and globally, blaming low-wage imports for domestic job losses. This pivot could have wide-reaching implications for international trade and domestic industries.
Funding for Ukraine
There is growing concern among European officials regarding the U.S. stance on Ukraine. Vance's critical view on funding Ukraine suggests a shift in policy if the Republican ticket succeeds in the upcoming elections. This could lead to a significant reduction in U.S. support for Kyiv, redirecting those funds domestically to infrastructure such as schools and hospitals.
Weather Impact on Crops
Severe weather has affected the central and eastern Corn Belt, with areas like northern Illinois experiencing up to 8 inches of rain over the past week due to Hurricane Beryl and subsequent storms. While the upcoming week forecasts drier conditions, the excessive rain has raised concerns about crop health in affected regions.
Global Wheat Purchases
Asian buyers have increased their wheat purchases from the Black Sea region, capitalizing on the lowest global prices in months. This surge is a response to better-than-expected yields in Russia and increased U.S. production, which have pressed down prices.
Stock Market Rally
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 soared to record highs, fueled by anticipation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This optimism in financial markets reflects broader economic sentiments and could influence sectors like real estate and consumer spending.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For more detailed analysis and predictions, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide regular updates to help you stay informed about the key factors affecting agricultural markets and the global economy.
💬 Join the Conversation:
What are your thoughts on the proposed trade tariffs and their potential impact on the U.S. economy? How do you see the current weather conditions affecting crop yields? Share your views in the comments below. Let’s discuss how these developments might shape market trends in the coming months.

Midwest "Derecho" Damages Crops and Grain Facilities Jul 16, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Severe Midwest Weather
2:29 Crop Ratings Unchanged
6:31 NOPA Crush
7:43 China Economic Problems
9:27 Grain Shipment Update
🚨 Severe Weather Update and Agricultural Market Overview 🌪️🌾
Welcome back to our channel for the latest insights on the impact of weather conditions and market trends on agricultural commodities. Let’s dive into the recent developments:
Severe Weather Impact
Parts of the central US Corn Belt were hit by severe weather on Monday night, including heavy straight-line winds and thunderstorms, affecting crops in Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Some locations reported winds exceeding 100mph. While today saw early morning rain across central regions, the coming days are expected to be dry for most of the Corn Belt, with rainfall anticipated mainly in the southern states.
US Corn and Soybean Conditions
The USDA's latest report shows US corn conditions remain stable at 68% good to excellent, consistent with the previous week but slightly below trade expectations. Soybean conditions also held steady at 68% good to excellent. The stability in crop conditions comes despite recent severe weather, underscoring the resilience of this year's crops so far.
Wheat Harvest Progress
The US winter wheat harvest is progressing ahead of schedule, though slightly behind trade expectations, with 71% of the crop harvested as of this past Sunday. Meanwhile, the US spring wheat crop is doing well, rated 77% good to excellent, indicating a potentially robust yield for this season.
Soybean Crush and Oil Stocks
The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a decline in the June soybean crush, which, while down from May, still set a record for the month. Soybean oil stocks decreased, falling below trade expectations, which could have implications for both the food industry and biofuel sectors.
Global Economic Concerns: China's Economy
China's economic growth slowed to 4.7% in the second quarter, marking its slowest pace in five quarters, driven by weak consumer spending and ongoing deflation. This economic downturn raises concerns about global trade flows and demand for commodities, including agricultural products.
US Crop Export Activity
US corn shipments showed strong performance last week, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase. However, soybean shipments were weaker than expected, which could influence market sentiment and pricing in the near term. Wheat shipments were notably strong, exceeding expectations and suggesting robust international demand.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For more detailed analysis and future forecasts, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide continuous updates to help you stay informed about the factors influencing agricultural markets.

Corn CAN'T RALLY on Friendly Report Jul 15, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Trump
1:25 USDA Report
3:53 "The Funds"
6:16 US Weather Update
7:33 Brazilian Soy Expansion
9:17 Biden Biofuel Failure
🌾 Agricultural Market Update: USDA Surprises, Crop Conditions, and Biofuel Policy Impacts 📉🌦️
USDA Report Overview
In a surprising turn, the USDA revised its demand projections upwards for the old crop US corn by 150 million bushels, contrary to previous supply and demand indicators. This adjustment resulted in a significantly lower old crop carryout projection of 1.877 billion bushels, which was below pre-report estimates. For the new crop, the USDA forecasted a carryout of 2.097 billion bushels, buoyed by an increase in projected exports and feed usage, also coming in lighter than anticipated.
Fund Trading and Market Sentiment
Fund traders maintain a record net short position in the corn market, with a net short of 356,000 contracts—the largest on record. This bearish stance extends to soybeans as well, with a significant net short position reflecting cautious market sentiment. However, funds were net buyers of SRW wheat, indicating a mixed outlook across different grain markets.
Weather Impact on Crops
The weekend brought substantial rainfall to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, with some areas receiving over 6 inches. The upcoming forecast suggests more scattered rainfall across the Corn Belt, with heavier rains expected in the southeastern United States. Cooler-than-normal temperatures are predicted to persist through the end of the month, which could impact crop development.
Brazilian Soybean Crop Expansion
Brazil's soybean planting is projected to grow by only 1.9% this year, marking the slowest expansion rate since 2006. Despite global supply pressures and diminishing profit margins influencing this trend, the overall production is expected to hit a record high due to improved yields. This dynamic highlights the global interplay between supply, demand, and pricing in major agricultural markets.
Biofuel Policy and Agricultural Impact
President Joe Biden’s climate policies have inadvertently favored the import of foreign biofuel materials over domestic crops like soybeans and corn. This shift has increased imports of used cooking oil and waste beef fat, impacting the demand for US-grown biofuels feedstocks. This policy direction is occurring alongside a projected significant drop in US farm incomes, the largest since 2006, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of domestic agricultural practices.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For more insights into these issues and how they're shaping global agriculture and trade, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We bring you the latest information to help you stay informed about the challenges and opportunities in the agricultural sector.

RECORD National Corn Yield?? Jul 12, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Record National Corn Yield?
6:58 Ukraine Seizes Russian Ship
8:27 Drought Monitor
11:11 Export Sales
14:11 Inflation Update
Welcome back to our channel for a detailed update on key developments affecting the agricultural sector and broader economic landscape. Here's what's on the agenda today:
USDA Crop Production and WASDE Reports
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11:00am CST. These reports will reflect the updated new crop US corn and soybean balance sheets, incorporating data from the June Planted Acreage report which showed a significant increase in corn acreage. While no major adjustments to US corn and soybean yield projections are expected, the focus will be on potential changes to global supply and demand. The reports are anticipated to bear a mostly bearish tone, especially concerning corn prices.
Geopolitical Developments in Ukraine
Ukraine's recent detention of a foreign cargo ship on the Danube River, suspected of carrying stolen Ukrainian grain from Russian-occupied Crimea, has escalated tensions. This incident has stirred concerns about potential Russian retaliatory actions during Ukraine's crucial grain export season. Wheat futures saw a sharp rise following the news, highlighting the sensitive interplay between geopolitical events and commodity markets.
US Drought Conditions and Agricultural Impact
Recent USDA drought monitor data indicates mixed conditions across the US Corn Belt and High Plains, with many areas receiving beneficial rainfall and experiencing cooler-than-average temperatures. However, conditions have worsened in parts of western Illinois and northeast Missouri. These evolving weather patterns are critical for crop development stages and will continue to influence market dynamics.
US Crop Export Sales
Corn export sales showed an increase last week, with Colombia being the largest buyer. However, soybean sales were relatively weak, with the Netherlands as the primary buyer. The varied performance in crop export sales reflects shifting global demand and market conditions, which traders closely monitor for strategic insights.
Economic Indicators and Market Reactions
In a surprising economic update, consumer prices declined for the first time in four years last month, with the CPI falling 0.1% in June. This decline, coupled with the slowest annual inflation increase since March 2021, has significantly influenced market expectations, with the probability of the Federal Reserve beginning rate cuts in September now standing at 89%.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing insights into these issues affecting agriculture, trade, and economic policies, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We bring you the latest information to help you understand the complexities of agricultural economics and global geopolitical shifts.

China is BACK... but Traders Don't Care (US Soybean Exports) Jul 11, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Help Us Hit 15k Subs!
0:35 China is Back
2:53 The Weather Market is Over
6:24 USDA Preview
8:51 Ru/Ukr Peace Deal?
11:02 Ethanol Production
🌾 Agricultural Sector Update: Market Movements and Weather Impact 📊🌦️
Welcome back to our channel for the latest insights into agricultural markets, crop conditions, and significant geopolitical developments. Here’s a rundown of the current situation:
US Soybean Sales to China
The USDA reported a noteworthy flash sale of 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year. This marks the first new crop soybean sale to China this year, occurring against a backdrop of the weakest new crop US soybean export sales since 2005.
Impact of Hurricane Beryl
Recent rains from Hurricane Beryl have significantly benefited regions of the Corn Belt such as Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan, with localized amounts reaching up to 6 inches. This rainfall was timely, particularly given the developing dryness in eastern areas. While mostly dry weather is expected in the coming days, forecasts indicate a return of rain to the eastern Corn Belt soon.
Upcoming USDA Reports
This Friday, the USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports. These are anticipated to reflect the data from the June Planted Acreage report, which showed a substantial increase in corn acreage. No major adjustments are expected for US corn and soybean yield projections. However, the global supply and demand dynamics, particularly f5or corn, might present a bearish outlook due to the increased acreage.
Geopolitical Developments
Ukraine is seeking to expedite peace talks with Russia ahead of the US presidential election, anticipating potential shifts in US foreign policy depending on the election outcome. The urgency reflects concerns about possible changes in military support depending on who wins the presidency.
Ethanol Production and Demand
US ethanol production has slightly decreased, with output at 1.05 million barrels last week. Ethanol stocks showed a marginal increase, reflecting a slight dip in implied gasoline demand. These figures are crucial as they impact corn markets, given that ethanol production is a significant corn use.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing insights into these issues affecting agriculture and global markets, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We bring you the latest information to help you understand the complexities of agricultural economics and global geopolitical shifts.

"Perfectly Timed" Rains: Above-Trend Corn and Soybean Yields?? Jul 10, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Soybean Selloff
2:41 Perfectly Timed Rains
6:01 India/Russia
7:12 Crude Oil
8:23 Rate Cuts Ahead
🌾📉 Agricultural and Economic Update: Soybean Prices, Weather Impact, and Global Trade Dynamics 🌦️🌍
Soybean Market Dynamics
Soybean futures hit a new low with the November 2024 contract dropping to $10.80 per bushel, the lowest since Q3 2021. This significant decline is driven by a sharp decrease in soybean oil values and a modest drop in meal prices, signaling a potential easing in the US soybean supply-demand balance. Current market sentiment is influenced by expectations of a strong national yield, while concerns about weak export sales—currently at a 20-year low—add to the bearish outlook.
Impact of Hurricane Beryl
Hurricane Beryl brought substantial rainfall across the central United States, particularly benefiting Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and western Kentucky within the Corn Belt. As the system continues to move, the forecast suggests a return to drier conditions, with fluctuating temperatures over the next two weeks. These weather patterns are crucial as they directly influence crop conditions and development.
Indian Imports of Russian Agricultural Products
India has significantly increased its imports of Russian agricultural products, with a notable uptick in grains like peas and lentils. This shift has contributed to Russia's 21% increase in grain and grain product exports this season. Such dynamics are reshaping global trade patterns, particularly under the current geopolitical climate.
Oil Market Fluctuations
Oil prices saw a decrease of more than 1% due to Hurricane Beryl causing less damage than expected, alleviating concerns about potential supply disruptions. Additional factors influencing oil prices include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on economic slowdown and the labor market, alongside speculative ceasefire talks in Gaza.
US Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve's Stance
The potential slowdown in the US jobs market poses significant risks to economic stability, challenging the Federal Reserve's policy approach. Powell's recent comments underscore the delicate balance the Fed must manage between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth, without providing a specific timeline for potential rate cuts.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For more insights into these issues affecting agriculture, global trade, and economic policies, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide in-depth analysis to help you navigate the complexities of these interrelated sectors.
💬 Join the Conversation:
How do you think the current soybean price trends will affect the agricultural sector? What are your views on the global impact of shifts in trade patterns? Share your thoughts in the comments below. Your feedback is invaluable as we explore these evolving challenges and

BLOODBATH: Fund Traders Sell While Farmers Hold (Corn Prices) Jul 09, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📉 Agricultural Market Update: Grain Prices, Crop Conditions, and Weather Impacts 🌦️📊
Welcome back to our channel where we provide comprehensive updates on the latest trends and changes in the agricultural sector. This week, we're looking at significant movements in grain prices, crop conditions, and the effects of weather patterns. Let's dive into the details:
Grain Price Decline
Grain prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2020, with December corn down 4.3% and November soybeans losing 3.1%. This decline is partly due to the beneficial moisture brought by Hurricane Beryl to the Midwest, which has improved crop conditions significantly. The USDA reported that corn and soybean crops are in their best condition in four years, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
Record Short Positions and Market Sentiment
Fund traders have increased their net short positions in the corn market to a record level, with a net short of 347,000 contracts of corn. This reflects a bearish sentiment in the market, further influencing grain price dynamics. Similar selling trends were observed in soybeans and SRW wheat, indicating broad market caution.
Weather Impact and Forecast
Hurricane Beryl has brought significant rainfall across Arkansas, Missouri, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois, with more expected over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana in the coming days. Despite this, the market is currently more focused on the moisture benefits rather than potential heat risks forecasted in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods.
US Crop Conditions
Corn and soybean conditions have shown slight improvements last week, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. These are among the best ratings for this time of year since 2020, suggesting robust crop health that could continue to influence grain prices.
Winter Wheat Harvest and Spring Wheat Conditions
The US winter wheat harvest is progressing well, ahead of schedule with significant portions already harvested in Kansas and Texas. Spring wheat conditions are also favorable, with 75% rated good to excellent, although there have been some declines in states like Idaho, South Dakota, and Washington.
Brazil's Corn Harvest and US Exports
Brazil's second corn crop harvest is advancing rapidly due to favorable hot and dry conditions, with 63% of the crop already harvested. Meanwhile, US corn shipments saw a substantial increase last week, indicating strong export demand, which contrasts with the recent drop in domestic grain prices.
Ongoing Developments
Lastly, the USDA reported a flash sale of corn, with significant quantities sold to unknown destinations, scheduled for delivery over the next two marketing years. This could signal ongoing international demand for US corn despite lower prices.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing insights into these issues affecting agriculture, make sure to subscribe to our channel.
💬 Join the Conversation:
How do you think these developments will impact global agricultural markets? What are your views on the current weather patterns affecting crop conditions? Share your thoughts in the comments below. Your input is crucial

Hail Storm Destroys MILLIONS of US Corn and Soybean Bushels Jul 08, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Hail Damage / US Weather
2:40 Drought Monitor
4:55 China Demand Problems
6:30 Ethanol Production
7:34 Export Sales
10:10 Flash Sale
🌾📈 Agricultural Sector Update: Weather Impacts, Crop Conditions, and Market Movements 🌦️📉
Severe Weather and Crop Damage
Recent hail storms across Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, Iowa, and Minnesota have severely impacted corn and soybean fields, with south-central Nebraska experiencing significant losses. Hurricane Beryl's landfall on the Texas coast has brought hurricane-related rains northeast, potentially affecting Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. These conditions may help alleviate some drought issues but could also pose risks of flooding and additional crop damage.
USDA Drought Monitor and Crop Conditions
The latest USDA drought monitor report shows mixed conditions across the Corn Belt and High Plains. While areas like northwest Ohio and central Iowa saw improvements due to recent rains, southern Ohio and parts of Illinois experienced worsening drought conditions. The overall impact continues to be closely monitored, with rainfall patterns playing a critical role in crop development stages.
International Corn and Soybean Market Trends
The USDA's office in China has revised down its forecast for Chinese corn imports to 20 million metric tons due to a bumper domestic crop and increased imports of substitutes like barley. Meanwhile, US ethanol production has seen an uptick, reflecting slightly increased gasoline demand, which could influence corn markets given ethanol's significant corn usage.
US Crop Export Sales
Recent US crop export sales figures were disappointing, with corn sales falling significantly below expectations and soybean sales also at the lower end of forecasts. These trends highlight the challenges facing US exporters in the current global trade environment, where competition and domestic supply issues in importing countries can quickly alter demand dynamics.
Market Response and Future Outlook
The agricultural market is responding to these developments with caution, as traders and farmers alike navigate the complexities of weather impacts, international trade shifts, and domestic policy changes. The next few days will be crucial for assessing the full impact of the recent storms and adjusting market strategies accordingly.
💬 Join the Conversation:
What are your thoughts on the recent weather events and their impact on crop conditions? How do you see the changes in Chinese corn imports affecting global markets? Share your views in the comments below. Your feedback is essential for our discussions.

Are Traders Wrong About the US Corn Crop? Jul 03, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📊 Agricultural Update: Weather Trends, Crop Estimates, and Industry Movements 🌦️🌍
Welcome back to our channel for the latest insights into agricultural conditions, market movements, and industry changes. Let’s explore some key developments affecting the sector this week.
Rainfall and Temperature Forecasts
Recent weather patterns have brought beneficial rain to parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, northern Missouri, and eastern Nebraska, while early morning storms affected Missouri and Illinois. Over the next 5-10 days, variable rainfall is expected across the Corn Belt, with the western areas receiving more moisture compared to a drier eastern region. This divergence in weather conditions could impact crop development differently across these areas.
Global Wheat Market Dynamics
Russian wheat prices have recently declined due to unexpectedly good yields and minimal frost damage, contradicting earlier concerns about dry weather and frost. As a result, Russia remains a competitive player in the global wheat market, offering some of the cheapest wheat available, which could influence global pricing and export dynamics.
Brazil's Soybean Crop Forecast
The USDA's attaché in Brazil has revised down the soybean crop estimate to 150 million metric tons due to flooding and lower yields in various states. This adjustment is slightly lower than other predictions, indicating potential tightness in global soybean supplies, which could affect market prices and export volumes.
US Corn Sales and Biofuel Industry Challenges
A recent flash sale reported 100,000 metric tons of corn sold to Colombia, reflecting robust demand for US corn. However, the biofuel sector is facing challenges, with major companies like Shell and BP pausing expansion due to market downturns and technical issues. This slowdown highlights the volatility in the biofuel market and its dependency on stable government policies.
Tyson Foods Adjusts Antibiotic-Free Beef Offerings
Tyson Foods is scaling back its antibiotic-free beef products due to the high costs and market pressures from rising cattle prices. This strategic shift reflects broader industry trends where companies are reassessing product lines to balance consumer preferences with profitability.
Pandemic Flu Vaccine Development
The US government is investing in the development of a new pandemic flu vaccine, with Moderna receiving significant funding to target multiple influenza strains, including the bird flu viruses. This initiative is part of a broader effort to enhance public health preparedness against potential flu pandemics.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For more detailed insights into these developments, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide in-depth analysis to help you navigate the complexities of global agriculture and related industries.
💬 Join the Conversation:
What impact do you think the varied rainfall will have on crop yields in the Corn Belt? How do you view the adjustments in the biofuel market? Share your thoughts in the comments below. Your input is crucial as we discuss these evolving challenges and opportunities.

Is China Really Worried About Another Trade War?? Jul 02, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Is China Worried?
3:10 Mexico to Continue US Corn Imports
6:20 Crop Conditions
8:46 US Radar / Weather
10:12 Grain Shipment Update
🌾📊 Global Agricultural Update: Trade Dynamics, Crop Conditions, and Weather Patterns 🌍🌦️
China's Soybean Import Surge
China is expected to import a record amount of soybeans this month, driven by reduced global soybean prices and strategic purchasing ahead of potential geopolitical shifts. The prospect of a new Trump presidency has stirred concerns about possible US tariff increases, which could ignite a trade war, influencing global soybean trade dynamics. Despite these concerns, China's reliance on cheaper Brazilian soybeans has lessened the potential impact of US market shifts.
Mexico's Agricultural Policy Shift
Mexico is revising its agricultural strategy by abandoning plans to reduce yellow corn imports and instead focusing on achieving self-sufficiency in white corn production. This move comes after the previous administration's attempts to limit genetically modified corn imports sparked a trade dispute with the US. The new policy aims to balance trade relationships while committing to significant environmental goals like halving deforestation.
US Crop Conditions and Weather Forecast
US corn conditions have seen a slight decline, though some states like Illinois and South Dakota reported improvements. The overall good to excellent ratings for soybeans held steady, despite declines in states like Iowa and Nebraska. Weather forecasts indicate widespread rainfall across the Corn Belt, with differing projections from the Euro and GFS models affecting expectations for moisture distribution, crucial for ongoing crop development.
Wheat Harvest Progress
The US winter wheat harvest is progressing rapidly, significantly ahead of schedule with substantial completion in states like Kansas and Texas. However, winter wheat conditions have slightly deteriorated. In contrast, the spring wheat crop is seeing favorable conditions, which bodes well for the upcoming yield potentials.
Grain Export Trends
US corn shipments experienced a decline last week, although they are still up year-over-year. Soybean and wheat exports also saw reductions from the previous week, reflecting fluctuating global demand and supply chain dynamics. These trends are critical for understanding the broader impacts on global grain markets.
Stay Updated:
For detailed insights into these and other agricultural topics, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide comprehensive analysis to help you understand the dynamics affecting global agriculture and markets.
Join the Conversation:
What are your thoughts on China's strategic soybean purchases? How do you view Mexico's shift in agricultural policy? Share your perspectives in the comments below. Your insights help us provide more rele

Corn Prices COLLAPSE Following Botched USDA Release Jul 01, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📉 Agricultural Market Recap: USDA Report Impact and Corn Belt Weather Update 🌦️📊
Welcome back to our channel where we analyze critical developments in the agricultural sector. This week’s focus is on the recent USDA report and its implications for the corn market, along with an update on weather conditions across the Corn Belt.
USDA Report and Corn Futures
The latest USDA report delivered a bearish surprise for corn markets. The 2024 US corn acreage was reported at 91.5 million acres, significantly higher than the average trade guess and March intentions, leading to a sharp decline in corn futures. The December 2024 corn contract fell by 13 cents, closing near $4.21 per bushel. Additionally, corn stocks as of June 1st exceeded expectations by 120 million bushels, further pressuring prices.
USDA Report Release Issues
The release of the USDA report was marred by technical difficulties, causing a delay on the official USDA website, attributed to heavy traffic. While some data channels like Quickstats and JSON were timely, the main site suffered a significant delay, impacting traders and stakeholders who rely on prompt data during such critical releases.
Weather Impact on Corn Belt
Over the weekend, the Corn Belt experienced varied rainfall, with Iowa, Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, and Michigan receiving substantial amounts. However, the eastern Corn Belt remained largely dry. The upcoming week’s forecast suggests more generalized rainfall across the region, potentially benefiting crop conditions, especially given the slightly below-normal temperature projections.
Market Sentiment and Trader Activity
In response to the USDA's bearish report, fund traders have increased their net short positions in the corn market, reaching the largest since mid-February. This sentiment was also reflected in trading activities for soybeans and SRW wheat, with funds continuing to sell off contracts.
Political Context
Amid these market dynamics, political developments continue as President Joe Biden evaluates the future of his re-election campaign following a challenging debate. Despite internal concerns within the Democratic party, top leaders and family discussions at Camp David over the weekend show ongoing support for his candidacy.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing insights into agricultural markets and related political developments, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide in-depth analysis to help you understand the dynamics affecting global agriculture, markets, and political landscapes.
💬 Join the Conversation:
How do you think these developments will impact global agricultural markets? What are your views on the USDA's handling of data releases? Share your thoughts in the comments below. Your input is crucial for enriching our discussions.

Building Dryness + Where is China!? Jun 28, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📈 Agricultural Sector Update: Weather Impacts, Market Trends, and Technological Advances 🌍🌦️
Welcome back to our channel, where we delve into the latest developments in agriculture, including weather conditions, market dynamics, and emerging technologies. Here's what's happening this week:
Drought and Weather Conditions
Recent USDA drought monitor data shows that precipitation was mostly limited to the upper and western portions of the Corn Belt last week, improving conditions in Wisconsin and Iowa. However, southern Minnesota, southeast South Dakota, and northwest Iowa experienced excessive rainfall, leading to flash and river flooding. Drought conditions across the High Plains remained largely unchanged, except for improvements in southwest Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
Forecast and Rainfall Accumulation
Early morning rains have swept across several states, including Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois. Forecast models from both the Euro and GFS indicate more generalized rainfall for the Corn Belt in the 5-10 day period, crucial for alleviating dryness in the eastern regions. Any underperformance in rainfall could heighten concerns over crop conditions due to building dryness.
USDA Reports and Market Expectations
The USDA is set to release its Planted Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks report today. Expectations suggest a modest increase in US corn and soybean acreage from March intentions. June 1st stocks are anticipated to be significantly higher than last year, with market sentiment leaning towards a bearish report based on recent price actions.
US Crop Sales and International Developments
Corn export sales saw a slight increase last week, primarily to Mexico. Soybean sales, however, fell below expectations, with China being the largest buyer. The USDA also reported a notable flash sale of soybeans for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Meanwhile, Argentina's major oilseed union strike over labor reforms could impact soybean processing and export operations, adding another layer of complexity to global supply chains.
Technological Innovations in Agriculture
Advancements in automation and artificial intelligence are increasingly prominent in farming equipment. Companies like John Deere are introducing tractors that can be operated via smartphones, while robots and drones are being used for crop spraying. Despite the potential benefits, there is some reluctance among farmers to fully adopt these expensive technologies, especially given current economic pressures.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing insights into these issues affecting agriculture, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide comprehensive analysis to help you understand and navigate the complexities of global agriculture and market trends.
💬 Join the Conversation:
What are your thoughts on the evolving weather patterns and their impact on crops? How do you view the integration of AI and automation in farming? Share your views in the comments below. Your feedback is vital for enriching our discussions.

2025 Biofuel Rules Coming Soon?? Jun 27, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📈 Agricultural Sector Update: Climate Initiatives, Weather Patterns, Market Forecasts, and Investment Opportunities 🌍📉
Welcome back to our channel where we delve into the latest in agricultural developments, market dynamics, and investment opportunities. Let’s explore the key updates affecting the sector this week.
USDA Climate-Friendly Farm Practices Feedback
The USDA is seeking public feedback to refine its assessment of climate-friendly farming practices linked to a new clean fuel tax credit program. This initiative follows some concerns from farm and biofuel groups about the stringent requirements of the SAF tax credit, which takes effect in 2025 and replaces other low-emission fuel credits. This feedback period is critical as it shapes future agricultural policies that directly impact farm sustainability and profitability.
Weather Impact on Crop Conditions
Scattered storms across South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas brought varying precipitation levels, including a hail risk in some areas of the western US Plains. Weather forecasts predict more generalized rainfall in the Corn Belt over the next 5-10 days, with temperatures expected to be significantly below normal in northern areas, potentially affecting crop growth and development stages.
Upcoming USDA Reports
This Friday, the USDA will release its Planted Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks report. Market anticipation suggests modest increases in US corn and soybean acreage from March intentions. Traders are bracing for potentially higher June 1st stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat compared to last year, with current price action hinting at expectations for a bearish report.
US Ethanol Production and Market Trends
US ethanol production has seen a slight decline from the previous week and year-over-year, with stocks decreasing slightly but still up compared to last year. These trends reflect broader challenges in the fuel market, where implied gasoline demand has also decreased, affecting the biofuel sector and related agricultural markets.
Brazilian Farmland Investment Opportunity
An innovative investment firm is offering foreign investors the chance to engage with Brazilian farmland through a private equity-style fund aimed at raising $150 million. This strategy allows investment in productive agricultural land, circumventing restrictions on direct land purchases by foreign entities. This opportunity taps into the significant value increase of Brazilian farmland over the past two decades, targeting investors from the US, Europe, and the Middle East.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For more insights into these developments, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide comprehensive analysis to help you understand the complexities of global agriculture and investment opportunities.
💬 Join the Conversation:
What are your thoughts on the USDA’s approach to climate-friendly practices? How do you see the current weather patterns affecting crop yields? Are you considering international agricultural investments? Share your views in the comments below. Your feedback is vital for our discussions.

Iowa Approves Carbon Pipeline: Eminent Domain and Political Influence Jun 26, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📈 Agricultural and Environmental Update: Pipeline Approvals, Market Trends, and Regulatory Changes 🌍📉
Welcome back to our channel where we provide comprehensive updates on agricultural markets, environmental initiatives, and regulatory changes. Let’s dive into the significant developments affecting the sector this week.
Carbon Capture Pipeline Approval in Iowa
The Iowa Utilities Board has granted approval for Summit Carbon Solutions' ambitious carbon capture pipeline, which will span five states and transport CO2 from 57 ethanol plants to a sequestration site in North Dakota. This approval also includes the contentious decision to allow eminent domain for acquiring necessary land, a move that has seen 75% voluntary compliance from landowners along the route. This project is a crucial step towards reducing carbon emissions significantly but awaits further approvals from North Dakota and South Dakota.
Corn and Soybean Market Dynamics
The December 2024 corn contract hit its lowest point since September 2021, closing at $4.43 per bushel, influenced by positive expectations about upcoming US rainfall and its potential benefit to crop yields. Similar trends were observed in the soybean market, with the November 2024 contract also reaching a low not seen since 2021. Market sentiment is bracing for potentially bearish outcomes from the upcoming USDA report and the impact of farmers needing to act on July basis contracts.
Weather Patterns and Crop Prospects
Early morning rains have been observed in southern Iowa and northern Missouri, with weather models showing varied predictions for the next few days. The Euro model suggests more generalized rainfall across the Corn Belt, while the GFS model predicts drier conditions, particularly in northern areas. Both models agree on additional rains in the 5-10 day forecast, crucial for crop development during this key growing phase.
USDA Corn Sale and Meatpacking Industry Proposal
The USDA reported a notable sale of corn to Mexico, reinforcing the strength of agricultural trade ties between the two nations. On another front, the USDA has proposed a rule aimed at increasing competition within the meatpacking industry by clarifying how producers can demonstrate harm from anti-competitive practices. This rule could lead to significant changes in how antitrust laws are enforced within the industry, despite concerns from the North American Meat Institute about potential legal challenges and uncertainty.
Implications and Outlook
These developments represent significant shifts in agricultural practices, market dynamics, and regulatory frameworks. The implications of these changes could affect everything from individual farmers to international trade relations and environmental strategies.

Crop Ratings Drop, Traders Don't Care Jun 25, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Crop Ratings Drop
3:42 US Weather Update
7:02 "The Funds"
8:03 India Limits Wheat Stocks
9:27 US Grain Shipments
10:22 New Crop Meal Sale
Agricultural Market Update: Crop Conditions, Weather Patterns, & Trade Dynamics
US Crop Conditions
Corn and soybean conditions have declined slightly this past week, with corn dropping from 72% to 69% rated good to excellent, and soybeans from 70% to 67%. Significant drops were noted in Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina due to various stress factors. Despite these decreases, the overall ratings align with trade expectations and remain relatively strong historically.
Wheat Harvest Progress
The US winter wheat harvest is progressing rapidly, significantly ahead of schedule with 40% of the crop already harvested, compared to the average of 25%. States like Oklahoma and Texas are nearly done with their harvest, while harvesting has yet to begin in states like Idaho and Michigan. The condition of the winter wheat has also improved, offering some positive news for wheat producers.
Rainfall and Temperature Forecasts
Rain is expected to return to the Corn Belt, particularly benefiting states like Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio in the next few days. Extended forecasts predict continued wet conditions which could alleviate concerns in areas previously dry, though above-normal temperatures could persist, potentially stressing crops further.
Market Movements
Fund traders have slightly adjusted their positions in the corn market, showing net buying for the first time in five weeks. This indicates a shift in market sentiment possibly due to recent weather impacts. In contrast, there continues to be net selling in soybeans and wheat, reflecting broader market trends and expectations.
International Trade and Restrictions
India is considering changes to wheat stock restrictions and import taxes to manage domestic prices and replenish supplies following several years of poor harvests. Such policy moves could have significant implications for global wheat markets, especially given India's role as a major agricultural player.
US Export Activities
Corn shipments have seen a decline from the previous week, yet they show a substantial increase year-over-year. Soybean shipments continue to rise, reflecting strong international demand. The USDA also reported notable sales of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines, highlighting the US's role in meeting global feedstock demand.
Economic and Environmental Impact
The ongoing adjustments in agricultural markets, coupled with fluctuating weather conditions, continue to pose challenges and opportunities for farmers, traders, and policymakers. The dynamic nature of these factors requires constant monitoring and adaptation to optimize ou

MILLIONS of US Corn/Soybean Bushels Lost in Flood: Why Don't Traders Care?? Jun 24, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📈 Agricultural Update: Weather Impacts, Crop Reports, and Market Dynamics 🌦️📉
Welcome back to our channel for a detailed analysis of recent developments in the agricultural sector. Let's dive into the impacts of weather conditions, upcoming USDA reports, and changes in market dynamics affecting US agriculture.
Severe Weather and Flooding Impact
Parts of South Dakota, Iowa, and Minnesota experienced heavy rainfall, resulting in significant flooding. In Minnesota, a peacetime emergency was declared with the National Guard activated to manage floodwaters. Northwest Iowa saw over 250 water rescues and considerable property damage, with ongoing concerns about flooding along the Missouri River and its tributaries. These conditions could affect crop health and delay farming activities in these crucial agricultural zones.
Corn Belt Weather Forecast
The US Corn Belt is expected to receive scattered rainfall over the next five days, with more widespread precipitation predicted in the 5-10 day period. Despite above-normal temperatures persisting, moisture levels are currently sufficient as the corn crop approaches pollination—a critical phase for determining yield outcomes.
USDA Reports Preview
The agricultural community is anticipating the USDA's Planted Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks report due this Friday. Expectations are set for a modest increase in US corn and soybean acreage from March intentions. June 1st stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat are projected to be significantly higher than last year, which could influence market prices and trading strategies.
Russian Crop Reseeding and Forecast
In Russia, despite early May frosts, the agriculture minister reported that most affected grain crops were successfully reseeded, maintaining the forecast for robust grain production this year. Adjustments in crop estimates by Russian consultancies and the USDA reflect ongoing adjustments to global supply expectations based on the latest agricultural data.
US Crop Sales and Home Market Trends
Corn export sales were notably weak last week, with Japan being the primary buyer. Conversely, soybean sales saw a significant uptick, led by purchases from China. In the real estate sector, US home prices reached a new record high in May, though high mortgage rates continue to suppress home sales, affecting broader economic sentiment.
Market Impact on Cattle
The latest Cattle on Feed report suggests a slightly bearish to neutral outlook for the cattle market, with placements exceeding expectations. This data is crucial for livestock producers and investors, indicating potential shifts in supply and pricing in the coming months.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing insights into these issues affecting agriculture and economic trends, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We bring you the latest information to help you understand the dynamics affecting global agriculture and markets.

Flood Warnings? Not a Concern. Rain Makes Grain! Jun 21, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾🌦️ Agricultural and Energy Sector Update: Weather Alerts, Crop Conditions, and Market Trends 📉🌞
Welcome back to our channel, where we analyze the latest in agriculture and energy sectors, providing insights into weather patterns, crop conditions, and market movements. Let’s dive into today’s significant developments.
Weather Impact on Agriculture
A storm system brought substantial rainfall to parts of South Dakota, southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and Wisconsin. Concurrently, much of the eastern Corn Belt is under a heat advisory, with both major weather models predicting dry conditions for the next five days but potential rainfall in the 5-10 day forecast. The government's 30-day outlook contrasts these models, predicting above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across the US Corn Belt, which could stress crops in key growing areas.
Drought Monitor and Crop Conditions
Recent USDA drought monitor data reveals that despite some rainfall in the western and northern Corn Belt, drought conditions have seen limited improvement as these areas were not previously under drought stress. However, areas like Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois experienced worsening conditions due to insufficient precipitation, which could impact crop yields moving forward.
Biofuels and Agricultural Markets
The US has approved the import of Brazilian used cooking oil (UCO) for renewable fuel production, affecting local soybean markets already under pressure from increased biofuel feedstock imports. This approval could shift dynamics in the biofuel industry, impacting soybean farmers and crushers due to altered profit margins. Meanwhile, demand for biofuels is expected to continue driving Brazilian soybean production, potentially reaching 170 million metric tons next season if weather conditions are favorable.
Chinese Import Trends
Chinese imports of US soybeans surged last month, increasing by 156% compared to last year, influenced by reduced availability of Brazilian soybeans due to flooding. Despite this spike, Brazilian soybeans still dominate the Chinese market, highlighting the dynamic nature of global agricultural trade.
US Ethanol Production
US ethanol production saw an increase last week, with output and stocks rising, reflecting a boost in implied gasoline demand. This uptick is significant for the renewable energy market and could influence corn prices, as ethanol production is a major demand driver for corn.
Energy Costs and Consumer Impact
Record-breaking heat across the US is expected to increase household electricity bills this summer. Natural gas supply adjustments, made to stabilize prices after a warm winter reduced heating demands, are also playing a role in this uptick in energy costs.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For continuous insights into these and other topics affecting agriculture and energy markets, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We bring you detailed analysis to help you understand and navigate these complex developments.

Summer Rally Canceled?? + US "Soft" Default Jun 20, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 US Weather Update
2:03 Wheat Collapse
4:36 Electric Semi Trucks?
6:04 Budget Deficit / Soft Default
9:08 S&P Record High
Welcome back to our channel, where we provide in-depth analysis of the latest developments in agriculture, economic policies, and financial markets. Let’s dive into the current situation affecting crops, commodity markets, and broader economic impacts.
🌦️ Weather Conditions in the Corn Belt:
Recent rains have swept across parts of South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, northern Illinois, and Wisconsin, with these areas seeing significant precipitation over the last 72 hours. The forecast for the next 5 days predicts above-normal temperatures across the Corn Belt, with more rain expected in the western regions, while the eastern areas remain mostly dry. Differences between the European (Euro) and American (GFS) weather models are creating some uncertainty for the 5-10 day forecast, particularly for the eastern Corn Belt.
🌾 Wheat Futures Market Dynamics:
Wheat futures have experienced a significant downturn, reaching multi-week lows, with spring wheat futures approaching their lowest level since April 2021. Initial concerns about the Russian wheat crop had driven prices up in April and May, but the market has softened due to reassessments of Russian crop losses and improved weather conditions. This adjustment has affected US wheat's position in the global export market.
🚗 US Corn and Oil Industries vs. Biden Administration:
US corn and oil industry groups have initiated a lawsuit against the Biden administration's new emissions regulations for heavy-duty vehicles, arguing that the push for electric vehicles (EVs) overlooks other climate solutions like ethanol. This legal challenge highlights the tension between traditional energy sectors and new regulatory measures aimed at reducing carbon emissions.
💰 Federal Budget and Economic Projections:
The Congressional Budget Office has revised the estimate for the 2024 federal budget deficit upwards by $400 billion, projecting it to reach $1.9 trillion. Factors contributing to this increase include military aid, student loan debt cancellation, and Medicaid spending. This projection raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of public debt, which could impact economic stability.
📈 Stock Market Achievements:
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached new record highs, driven largely by gains in tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, which has now become the world's most valuable public company. Nvidia's rapid ascent underscores the significant impact of the tech sector on broader market indices.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For continuous insights into these and other topics affecting agriculture, markets, and economic policy, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We bring you detailed analysis to help you navigate these complex developments.

Crop Ratings Drop- Will ILLINOIS Get Worse?? Jun 18, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📉 Agricultural Sector Update: Crop Conditions, Harvest Progress, and Market Movements 🌍📊
Welcome back to our channel, where we keep you informed about the latest trends and data in the agricultural sector. Let’s dive into the recent developments affecting US crops, harvest progress, and the implications for the market.
🌽 US Corn and Soybean Conditions:
The latest USDA report shows a slight decline in US corn conditions, with 72% of the crop rated good to excellent, down from 74% last week and slightly below trade expectations. However, it remains the best rating for this week since 2018. States like Missouri, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota are performing particularly well. On the soybean front, 70% of the crop is rated good to excellent, a slight dip from last year and below trade expectations but still the highest since 2020.
🌾 US Wheat Harvest Advances:
The winter wheat harvest is progressing rapidly, with 27% of the crop already harvested, surpassing the average pace. Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas are leading the charge, with significant portions of their crops harvested. The overall condition of the winter wheat has improved, with 49% rated good to excellent. Spring wheat is also faring well, with 76% rated good to excellent.
📈 Weather Impact on the Eastern Corn Belt:
The eastern Corn Belt continues to experience hot and mostly dry conditions, which could stress crops. However, recent weather model shifts suggest that rain could return to the area by mid-next week, potentially easing some concerns about dryness.
🛢️ Soybean Processing Data:
The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a record soybean crush for May, with 183.6 million bushels processed, indicating strong demand. Soybean oil stocks ended the month lower than expected, which could tighten supply and influence market prices.
🌽 Brazil’s Corn Harvest and US Export Trends:
Brazil’s second corn crop is being harvested at a record pace due to favorable drying conditions, though projections indicate a decrease in production compared to last season. Meanwhile, US corn shipments saw a slight decrease last week, but remain significantly higher year-over-year. Soybean and wheat shipments from the US have seen increases, reflecting robust international demand.
📉 Market Impact:
These developments have various implications for commodity prices and market dynamics. The weather patterns in the Corn Belt, combined with strong processing data and export trends, provide a complex picture that traders and producers must navigate.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing insights into these and other agricultural topics, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide detailed analysis to help you understand the dynamics affecting global agriculture and markets.
💬 Join the Conversation:
How do you think these crop conditions and market trends will impact agricultural strategies and investments? Share your thoughts in the comments below. Your input helps us tailor our content to meet your needs and interests.

Isn't This Supposed to be Bullish? (Corn Belt Heat) Jun 17, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 A Non-Bullish Forecast?
2:53 China Drought Update
5:46 "The Funds"
6:43 Ukraine Production Update
8:03 Trump Taxes and Tariffs
🌾📈 Agricultural Market and Climate Update: Weather Trends, Crop Forecasts, and Trade Dynamics 🌍🌦️
Welcome back to our channel where we explore significant developments in agriculture, including weather conditions, crop forecasts, and market movements that affect global food production and trading.
🌞 Eastern Corn Belt Weather Conditions:
The eastern Corn Belt is bracing for hotter and drier conditions with temperatures expected to be 5 to 15 degrees above normal in the coming days. In contrast, western and northwestern areas, including parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, Minnesota, and northwest Iowa, received early morning rainfall today and are forecasted to receive more precipitation over the next 5 to 10 days. This mixed weather pattern could impact crop conditions variably across the region.
🇨🇳 Drought Impact on Chinese Grain Production:
In China, persistent drought conditions are expected to reduce grain production, with corn output projected to decline by 2.3% and wheat by 1.2% according to Beijing-based BOABC. These figures contrast with more optimistic government projections, highlighting potential challenges in meeting domestic and global grain demands amidst worsening drought conditions.
📊 Market Movements and Trader Positions:
Fund traders have slightly increased their net short positions in corn, continuing a trend of bearish market sentiment since last year. Meanwhile, there have been significant sales in soybeans and wheat, reflecting broader market adjustments. These movements provide insights into the current market dynamics and trader expectations.
🇺🇦 Ukraine's Grain Production Outlook:
Ukraine's agriculture ministry has revised its grain production forecast upward, anticipating a total of 56 million metric tons for the 2024 season. This optimistic outlook includes significant contributions from wheat and corn, which are also expected to bolster Ukraine's grain exports. Such forecasts are crucial as they influence global grain supply chains and pricing.
📉 Economic Proposal by Former President Donald Trump:
Former President Donald Trump has proposed eliminating the federal income tax and raising tariffs on imported goods to compensate. This idea, however, faces significant practical challenges, including the potential for increased consumer costs and the risk of international trade retaliations, which could spiral into a trade war.

Drought Conditions Shrink + Heat and Humidity Across the Corn Belt Jun 14, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📈 Comprehensive Agricultural and Economic Update 🌍📉
Welcome back to our channel, where we delve into significant updates across agricultural markets, weather impacts, and economic conditions affecting global agriculture.
🌾 USDA just dropped the latest on drought monitor data. 🌧️ Rainfall played favorites in the Corn Belt last week. The good news? Drought conditions improved in several spots like western Michigan, northern Minnesota, and more. But, some areas like northeastern Missouri saw things worsen. Kansas got a dose of relief with heavy rainfall. 🌱
🇺🇸 US Areas Hit by Drought:
🌽 Corn: 2%
🌱 Soybeans: 1%
❄️ Winter Wheat: 16%
🌾 Spring Wheat: 3%
🐄 Cattle: 8%
A high pressure ridge is bringing in warmer vibes to the Corn Belt. 🌡️ Brace yourselves for some above-normal temperatures and higher humidity levels, as per the 6-10 and 8-14 day government forecasts. Western and northwestern Corn Belt might snag some rain, but the eastern side might stay a bit parched.
Over in Brazil, the forecast for the second corn crop is looking up. 🌽 Conab, Brazil's USDA equivalent, upped their estimate to 88.1mmt, a 2.3% jump from last month. However, Brazil's total corn production is expected to dip to 114.1mmt, mainly due to a soggy situation in southern Brazil affecting soybean crops.
US corn exports are holding steady despite a slight dip last week. 🌽 Sales clocked in at 1.1mmt (42mil bushels), with Japan leading the pack. Soybean sales are on the rise, hitting 377,100mt (14mil bushels), with China taking the lion's share. Wheat sales didn't meet expectations, but Mexico made a notable buy.
More soybeans flying off the shelves! 🛒 US exporters snagged a deal of 120,000mt (4mil bushels) for delivery next marketing year. That's the fourth flash sale in five sessions, totaling 434,000mt (16mil bushels).
The oil and ethanol folks aren't thrilled about the push for EVs. ⚡ They've teamed up to challenge Biden's pollution limits, arguing that it unfairly favors EVs over gas and diesel vehicles. The EPA's restrictions could force more EV sales, overlooking ethanol's emission-reducing abilities. Supporters compare these standards to the catalytic converter introduction in the '70s.

China Corn Drought + Ag "Disruptors" Jun 13, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📈 Comprehensive Agricultural and Economic Update 🌍📉
Welcome back to our channel, where we delve into significant updates across agricultural markets, weather impacts, and economic conditions affecting global agriculture.
🇨🇳 Dry Weather Impacting China's Corn Crop:
China is facing challenges with its corn crop development due to prolonged dry weather and high temperatures, which have significantly reduced rainfall across major corn-growing regions since May 1st. With China projected to be the world’s second-largest corn producer this year, any impact on its crop development could have substantial implications for global corn supply.
📊 USDA Report Overview:
The latest USDA report left US corn and soybean production estimates unchanged, aligning with market expectations. However, the report adjusted Brazil's soybean production slightly downwards and significantly reduced the Russian wheat production forecast, which could influence global grain markets.
🌧️ US Corn Belt Weather Forecast:
Rain is expected to return to the US Corn Belt, potentially benefiting parts such as Nebraska, northern Iowa, and southern Minnesota with significant rainfall expected this weekend. However, regions like Missouri and Ohio might see drier conditions, which could impact crop moisture levels amid slightly above-normal temperatures forecasted for the next 10 days.
🚜 US Ethanol Production and Soybean Sales:
Ethanol production in the US saw a decrease last week, with output and stocks experiencing slight fluctuations. Meanwhile, the USDA reported another significant flash sale of soybeans to China, marking continued interest and procurement from one of the largest global soybean markets.
🌱 Challenges for High-Tech Agricultural Startups:
Emerging agricultural technology startups aiming to digitalize traditional farming practices are facing difficulties in connecting with farmers and adapting to a changing financial landscape. With a drop in investment and challenges in implementation, these startups are struggling to compete with established agribusiness giants like Cargill and ADM.
🌻 Shift in US Renewable Diesel Production:
The transition from a blenders credit to a producer credit in the US, starting January 2025, is expected to impact global vegetable oil imports and domestic soybean oil supply. This policy change could lead to a surplus in soybean meal and a shortage in soybean oil, significantly affecting feedstock supplies for renewable diesel production.
📉 Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Decisions:
Inflation rates have eased slightly, with the CPI showing a smaller increase than anticipated. This development, along with the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts, underscores the complex economic landscape that policymakers are navigating.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For detailed analyses and updates on these topics, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We bring you the latest information to help you understand the dynamics affecting global agriculture and markets.

Is China BACK?! + USDA Preview Jun 12, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Is China Back?
2:25 USDA Preview
5:41 US Weather Update
7:32 Russian Crop Losses (Wheat)
9:02 CPI Preview
Welcome back to our channel, where we delve into the latest developments in agricultural markets, including flash sales, upcoming USDA reports, and evolving weather conditions affecting crop production.
🌱 Flash Sale of Soybeans to China:
The USDA reported a significant sale of soybeans this week, with 104,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) sold to China for delivery in the 2023/2024 marketing year. This sale is part of a broader trend, totaling 208,000 metric tons in recent purchases. Analysts suggest that changes in Brazilian tax policy, which have made Brazilian soybeans more expensive on the export market, might have influenced China's decision to purchase more U.S. soybeans.
📑 Upcoming USDA Reports:
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports today. While U.S. production estimates typically remain unchanged in June, there could be adjustments in demand on the balance sheets. Additionally, production numbers from South America and Russian wheat forecasts will be particularly scrutinized, given previous discrepancies with USDA's estimates. These reports are critical for traders and will likely influence market movements.
🌧️ Weather Conditions in the US Corn Belt:
The next 72 hours are expected to be mostly dry across the Corn Belt, with rain returning over the weekend. The forecast indicates 1-2 inches of rain in areas including northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, beneficial for crop moisture levels. However, regions like Illinois and Ohio might remain drier, which could impact crop conditions amid fluctuating temperatures forecasted over the next two weeks.
🌾 Russian Crop Losses and Global Impact:
Recent reports from Russia indicate that crop losses from May frosts are more severe than initially estimated, with 15-30% of winter grains affected. Despite these losses and a federal emergency declaration, exports are not expected to be impacted significantly. This situation will be critical to monitor as it may affect global grain supply and pricing.
📉 Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Decisions:
Today's CPI report is projected to show a slight increase in consumer prices, suggesting a stabilization in inflation rates. This data is crucial as it could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, expected to be announced later today. These economic indicators are essential for understanding broader market sentiments and potential impacts on agricultural investments.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing insights into these issues affecting agriculture and economic trends, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide detailed analysis to help you navigate these complex developments.

STRONG Crop Ratings + Turkey Bans Wheat Imports Jun 11, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📉 Agricultural Market Update: Crop Conditions, Weather Impacts, and Global Trade Movements 📊🌍
Welcome back to our channel where we provide detailed insights into the latest trends and changes in the agricultural sector, including crop conditions, weather forecasts, and global market dynamics.
🌽 US Corn and Soybean Conditions:
US corn conditions have seen a slight decline from last week, now rated at 74% good to excellent, but remain robust compared to historical standards and align with trade expectations. The corn crop is 95% planted nationally. Soybean conditions are notably strong at 72% good to excellent, the highest since 2020, with 87% of the crop planted. These conditions reflect favorable growing circumstances for the major US crops this season.
🌾 Wheat Harvest and Market Impact:
The US winter wheat harvest is progressing ahead of schedule, with 12% completed nationally, doubling the average pace. However, conditions have slightly worsened to 47% good to excellent. Concurrently, spring wheat ratings also dipped to 72% good to excellent. Additionally, global wheat markets reacted to Turkey’s announcement of a temporary import ban, which has pushed wheat futures to their lowest since early May, impacting US and global wheat prices.
🌦️ Weather Forecast Across the Corn Belt:
A light storm system moved across Minnesota this morning, with more rain expected in South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa over the next five days. While the near-term forecast suggests wet conditions in these areas, Illinois and eastern regions may remain dry. Temperature forecasts continue to predict above-normal heat, which could affect crop stress and development as the season progresses.
🌎 Global Wheat Dynamics:
Turkey’s recent decision to ban wheat imports until mid-October aims to protect local farmers during the harvest season. This could lead to more Russian wheat entering the global market, heightening competition for US and other wheat exporters. Such geopolitical and trade policies significantly influence global supply chains and market prices.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Corn Harvest:
Brazil is experiencing a record pace in its second corn crop harvest, with favorable yields in Mato Grosso but mixed results in other states due to varied weather conditions. The fast harvest pace and substantial projected total production highlight Brazil's significant role in global corn markets.
🚢 US Agricultural Shipments:
This week's USDA report shows a decline in US corn and soybean shipments, with corn exports down 5.4% from last week but up year-over-year, and soybean shipments significantly lower compared to last week. Wheat shipments also decreased but show a strong increase compared to the same period last year. These figures are crucial for tracking US competitiveness in global agricultural trade.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing insights into these and other agricultural topics, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We bring you the latest data and expert analysis to help you understand these complex developments.

Two Weeks of Corn Belt HEAT- Do Traders Care?? Jun 10, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📈 Agricultural and Economic Insights: Weather, Market Trends, and Policy Updates 🌍💼
Welcome back to our channel where we cover the latest developments in agricultural markets, economic policies, and environmental factors impacting farming and global trade.
🌞 US Corn Belt Weather Forecast:
A significant weather shift is on the horizon for the US Corn Belt, with a stretch of temperatures expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal starting next Sunday. This heatwave could impact crop conditions across the region, especially as most areas are forecasted to remain dry through the 5-day period. Rain is expected to return to the western Corn Belt early next week, potentially aiding areas with moisture deficits.
📉 Market Dynamics in Corn and Soybeans:
Fund traders have notably increased their net short positions in the corn market, selling 88,000 contracts, and have also moved to increase short positions in soybeans and wheat. This significant selling activity could influence market prices and farmer revenue expectations going forward. Check the Fund Tracker charts for detailed trading trends.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Soybean Market Challenge:
Brazil's recent tax policy adjustment, which restricts the use of government tax credits, is poised to make Brazilian soybeans less competitive on the global stage. This change could lead to increased prices for Brazilian soybeans, making American beans more appealing in the international market. The policy is effective immediately but requires Congressional approval within four months to remain in effect.
🇨🇳 Chinese Soybean Imports:
Chinese soybean imports have decreased, with May figures showing a 15% drop from the previous year, although still the second highest on record for the month. The decline is partly attributed to flooding in Brazil affecting soybean supplies, with expectations for continued lower imports in June.
🌾 US-China Trade Concerns:
US farmers are increasingly worried about the potential for escalating trade tensions with China, especially following recent US tariffs on Chinese goods. There is concern that these tensions could further reduce the US share of the Chinese market, which has already been impacted by cheaper South American crops.
🌱 USDA Soybean Sales:
Despite trade concerns, USDA reported a flash sale indicating continued Chinese interest in US soybeans, with a recent purchase for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year. This suggests that there is still significant demand from China for US agricultural products.
📊 US Labor Market Update:
The US economy added more jobs than expected in May, indicating robust economic activity. This stronger-than-expected job growth, coupled with a slight uptick in unemployment and wage increases, could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in the coming months, with the market currently anticipating a possible rate cut in September.

"Surprise " Brazil Tax Changes: The Next Bull Story?? (Corn/Soybeans) Jun 06, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 The Next "Bull Story?"
3:42 Drought is Over
5:57 Soybean Export Problem
8:05 Flash to Unknown
9:11 Rate Cuts Have Begun
🌾📉 Global Agricultural Trends and Economic Policy Updates 📊🌍
Welcome back to our channel where we explore the latest developments in global agriculture, including significant policy changes, market dynamics, and environmental conditions affecting crop production.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Tax Policy Shift and Its Impact on Agriculture:
This week, Brazil's Finance Ministry announced a tightening of tax credit usage, a move aimed at reducing the government's budget deficit. This sudden policy shift has sparked considerable pushback from the agricultural sector, particularly the soybean and cotton industries, as well as biofuels and food lobbies. Industry experts warn that this could make Brazilian producers less competitive, potentially lowering soybean prices and prompting shifts in crushing and biofuel production to the US and Argentina. Major traders like ADM have paused new offers for soybeans and corn, waiting for further clarity. This uncertainty contributed to a rally in row crops yesterday.
🌦️ US Drought Monitor and Weather Conditions:
Recent rainfall has brought improvements in drought conditions across significant portions of the Corn Belt, notably in northern Minnesota and southeastern Nebraska. However, areas like northwestern Illinois and northeastern Missouri have seen conditions worsen due to a lack of precipitation. The overall impact has been positive, with nearly all drought conditions erased in the Corn Belt after consistent spring rainfall.
🌽 US Corn and Soybean Market Movements:
US corn exports saw a robust increase last week, with net sales reaching 1.2 million metric tons, a significant uptick from the previous week. Mexico remains the largest buyer. Conversely, soybean sales were notably weaker, with a sharp decrease in purchases led by the Netherlands. Wheat sales also saw significant reductions, primarily due to decreased buying from Mexico. These fluctuations highlight the dynamic nature of global agricultural trade.
📉 Global Economic Shifts and Interest Rate Cuts:
The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its key interest rate for the first time in five years, cutting it by a quarter point to 3.75%. This move, made despite inflation rates still well above the target, reflects broader economic pressures and a strategic shift towards stimulating economic growth. Canada also reduced its headline interest rate, indicating a trend among central banks to address slowing global economic activity.

Losing Streak Continues - What Does a "Bullish Forecast" Look Like?? Jun 06, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Losing Streak Hits 7 Days
1:29 US Weather Forecast
4:00 Russian Wheat Estimates Decline
5:27 China to Stockpile Wheat
6:45 Bird Flu Update
8:08 Ethanol Production Increases
9:09 US Stock Market All-Time Highs
🌾📉 Agricultural and Financial Markets Update: Key Trends and Global Impacts 📈🌍
🌽 Corn and Soybean Market Trends:
Corn and soybean futures have continued their downward trend, closing lower in seven consecutive sessions. The December 2024 corn contract experienced a 34-cent drop from a peak of $4.93, while the November 2024 soybean contract fell 77 cents from $12.25. With US planting progress currently ahead of schedule and a drier forecast for the Corn Belt, concerns about crop threats have diminished, influencing market sentiment.
🌤️ Weather Outlook for US Corn Belt:
The forecast shows minimal rainfall expected across the majority of the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, with Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas likely to see some precipitation. Cooler temperatures are anticipated to continue into next week, potentially affecting crop development and harvest schedules.
🌾 Global Wheat Supply Concerns:
Sovecon has lowered its forecast for Russia's wheat crop due to adverse weather conditions, estimating a significant reduction to 80.7 million metric tons. This forecast cut comes amid concerns from Russia's agriculture minister about the need for a national emergency declaration, which could provide financial support to farmers without impacting grain exports. Concurrently, China is increasing its domestic wheat purchases in response to global supply uncertainties and recent import reductions.
🦠 Bird Flu Developments:
A case of bird flu caused by the H5N2 strain, previously unconfirmed in humans, has resulted in a fatality in Mexico. This development is particularly concerning as it differs from the H5N1 strain affecting US dairy cows. The US has seen bird flu confirmations in dairy herds across ten states, raising public health and agricultural concerns.
🚗 US Ethanol Production and Gasoline Demand:
Ethanol production in the US has seen a slight increase, with output reaching 1.07 million barrels last week, up 6.8% year-over-year. However, gasoline demand has shown a slight decline, reflecting broader trends in energy consumption and market dynamics.
📈 Financial Market Highlights:
The S&P 500 achieved its 25th record high of the year, driven by a rally in major technology stocks like Nvidia and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. These factors have also influenced movements in the Treasury yields, reflecting broader investor sentiment and economic forecasts.

6-Day Losing Streak - Corn/Soybean Prices Collapse on Improved Forecast Jun 05, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽🌱 Agriculture and Energy Market Overview: Commodity Trends and Global Events 📉🛢️
Welcome back to our channel where we dive into recent trends in agricultural commodities, weather impacts on crops, and shifts in the energy sector.
🌽 Corn and Soybean Market Trends:
Corn and soybean futures have seen a significant downturn, with both commodities posting lower closes in six consecutive sessions. The December 2024 corn contract fell 31 cents from a peak of $4.93, and the November 2024 soybean contract dropped nearly 70 cents from $12.25. Current US planting progress, which is ahead of schedule, coupled with a drier forecast for the US Corn Belt, has reduced concerns over major crop threats for now.
🌤️ US Weather Outlook:
The US Corn Belt is experiencing a shift towards drier and cooler-than-normal conditions, which could influence crop development in the coming weeks. With significant acreage still to be planted, these weather conditions could be crucial for the timely sowing of the remaining 7 million acres of corn and 19 million acres of soybeans.
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Losses Due to Flooding:
In Brazil, historical flooding in Rio Grande do Sul has caused substantial damage to the soybean harvest, with losses estimated between 2.7 and 3 million metric tons. The floods, which occurred during a critical harvest period, also impacted grain storage facilities, compounding the challenges faced by farmers in the region.
🛢️ US Crude Oil Market Dynamics:
US crude prices have retreated sharply this week, erasing most of their gains for the year. The drop to a near four-month low of $73.25 per barrel follows OPEC+'s decision to increase production starting in October. This move, combined with concerns over high interest rates impacting global economic activity, has influenced oil market sentiments. However, the upcoming US summer driving season could provide some support for oil prices.
🎮 GameStop Stock Surge and Regulatory Scrutiny:
GameStop shares surged 21% following a social media post by Keith Gill, aka Roaring Kitty, revealing a significant stake in the company. This event has attracted attention from regulators and market platforms, with E-Trade considering action against Gill and the SEC investigating related trading activities. This situation highlights the ongoing impact of social media on stock market dynamics.

100% Good-Excellent?? How?! (Corn Crop) Jun 04, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Crop Ratings
3:36 Russia "Emergency"
6:31 Brazil Flooding
7:44 Reduced Brazil Estimates
9:23 Drier Forecast
10:37 US Grain Shipments Improve
11:36 Flash to Spain
🌽📈 Initial US corn conditions exceed last year, rated 75% good to excellent 🌱🇺🇸 91% of corn planted, soybean planting at 78% 🌾 States with top ratings: MI, MN, NE, NC, ND, PA, SD 📉 Winter wheat harvest at 6%, conditions improve to 49% good to excellent 🌾🌾 Spring wheat rated 74% good to excellent nationally 🇷🇺❄️ Russia may declare emergency due to frosts, 3.7 million acres damaged 🇧🇷🌊 Climate change worsens Brazil flooding, affects 90% of Rio Grande do Sul 🌽 StoneX lowers Brazil's corn and soybean crop estimates due to dry conditions and flooding 🌧️ Drier weather forecasted in Corn Belt, with potential for heavier rains in certain areas 🚢 US corn shipments increase, soybean and wheat shipments also rise 🌽 USDA reports flash sale of corn to Spain, with accumulated sales up 31% from last year 🌍📉 Climate change impacts agriculture worldwide.

BLOODBATH: Why Did Corn Prices COLLAPSE Last Week?? Jun 03, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Welcome back to our channel for an in-depth update on the latest in agricultural markets, including significant movements in corn futures, trading patterns, and global economic implications.
🌽 Corn Futures and Trading Dynamics:
Corn futures experienced a notable decline last week, with the December 2024 contract dropping 22 cents from a weekly high of $4.93 per bushel. The decrease reflects a shift in market sentiment, where concerns about US planting delays have lessened and the current lack of drought is viewed as a bearish factor. Reports indicate that fund traders sold around 35,000 contracts late last week, contributing to a larger trend of increasing net short positions in the corn market.
📊 Commitment of Traders Report:
The latest CFTC data shows that fund traders have expanded their net short positions in corn, selling 16,000 contracts, while taking opposite positions in soybeans by buying 16,000 contracts. Meanwhile, a sell-off occurred in SRW wheat with a reduction of 5,000 contracts. These movements are crucial for understanding the broader commodity trading landscape.
🌧️ Weather Impact on Agriculture:
Current weather patterns show rain across key areas of the Corn Belt, affecting states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. This trend is expected to continue, with a forecast suggesting below-normal precipitation in the coming days for the central and western Corn Belt. May was notably wet for regions like Iowa, affecting planting and crop conditions.
🚢 US Corn and Soybean Export Sales:
Corn export sales have declined, with a drop of 11% from the previous week, reflecting a dip in demand, with Mexico remaining the largest buyer. Soybean sales, however, increased by 18% from the previous week, with the largest purchases by unknown destinations. Wheat sales saw a significant reduction, with Italy emerging as the top buyer.
🇨🇳 China's Imports of Sustainable Agricultural Products:
China's first shipment of deforestation-free soybeans marks a policy shift towards more sustainable agricultural practices. The shipment underscores Beijing's commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, though the higher costs of sustainably sourced products pose challenges for widespread adoption.
🛢️ OPEC+ Production Strategy:
OPEC+ has decided to extend its current production cuts until October, with plans to gradually phase them out over the following year. This strategy has supported crude prices above $80 per barrel and reflects ongoing adjustments to global supply dynamics in response to economic conditions.
🔔 Stay Updated:
Subscribe to our channel for regular insights into agricultural and economic trends. We provide detailed analyses to help you understand these complex developments.

Corn Belt Drought is OVER- Record Summer Heat Predicted?? May 31, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Drought is Over
6:27 Record Summer Heat?
10:11 Ethanol Wont' Qualify
12:57 Ethanol Production
14:48 Bird Flu Update
🌾🌦️ US Agriculture and Market Trends Update: Drought Monitor, Commodity Prices, and Ethanol Production 📈💧
Welcome back to our channel where we delve into the latest agricultural developments, including updates on drought conditions, commodity market trends, and energy production!
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Report:
Recent rainfall across the Corn Belt has brought some relief, improving conditions notably in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Iowa. However, parts of Kansas and Oklahoma saw drought conditions worsen. The overall impact on major crops shows a slight reduction in areas experiencing drought: Corn (5%), Soybeans (3%), and Spring Wheat (3%), while Winter Wheat remains at 25% and cattle areas at 12%. For a closer look at the regional changes, check out the linked USDA drought PDF.
🌡️ Summer Heat and Commodity Prices:
With the first four months of the year being the warmest in 175 years, there's increasing concern that 2024 could set new heat records. Analysts anticipate that this could drive natural gas and electricity prices higher due to increased air conditioning usage. Wheat futures have already reached their highest levels since July, with potential further increases due to supply shortages and challenging growing conditions globally, particularly in Russia and the potential for worsening drought in the US.
🌽 Ethanol Production and SAF Tax Credits:
US ethanol production saw a significant increase last week, with output rising by 4.8% and stocks adjusting slightly. However, a new pilot program for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) tax credits highlights challenges, as few corn farmers currently meet all three required climate-smart practices to qualify for these subsidies. This development underscores the ongoing adjustments within the energy sector to align with climate goals. Detailed ethanol production and demand charts are available below.
📊 Financial Markets Update: Moderna's Share Growth:
Moderna's stock continues to rise, boosted by anticipated US government funding for a late-stage trial of its mRNA bird flu vaccine. The potential funding, expected to reach tens of millions of dollars, has contributed to a 40% increase in Moderna's shares since the initial detection of bird flu in a Texas dairy worker. This financial movement reflects broader market responses to health crises and vaccine development efforts.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing insights into these critical issues affecting agriculture, energy markets, and financial trends, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide detailed analyses to help you understand and navigate these complex developments.

Is USDA Too Bearish?? (Grain Prices) May 30, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📉 Global Agricultural and Economic Update: Import Changes, Weather Impact, and International Relations 🌍💹
Welcome back to our channel for a comprehensive overview of significant developments in agriculture and global markets, including India's wheat import decisions, severe weather conditions, international trade issues, and geopolitical shifts.
🌾 India to Import Wheat Amid Shortage:
India plans to resume wheat imports for the first time in six years due to a severe reduction in domestic reserves, triggered by hot and dry weather and governmental sales to stabilize prices. The country is expected to scrap its 40% import tax on wheat by the end of June, allowing private traders to procure wheat, potentially from Russia, before reinstating the tax in October to protect local farmers. India might import between 3 to 5 million metric tons during this period. For a visual representation of the impact, see the attached charts.
🌧️ US Weather Update: Rain and Storms:
The US Plains and western Corn Belt are facing storm systems that could persist throughout the weekend, with expectations of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms, particularly in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Flash flood warnings are currently in effect, and the region could see 1-3 inches of rainfall over the next 5-10 days. Detailed weather maps are available below.
🥩 China Suspends US Beef Imports from JBS Plant:
China has halted beef imports from a JBS plant in Colorado after discovering traces of ractopamine, a feed additive banned in many countries including China. This has led to a significant drop in cattle futures, impacting the US beef market notably since China is a major importer of US beef. JBS is actively working with relevant authorities to address the situation.
🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and US-Ukraine Policy:
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated a potential shift in policy that may allow Ukraine to use American-supplied weapons to target locations within Russia, a move that could escalate military tensions significantly. This development follows European support for expanded military latitude for Ukraine and recent statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding potential retaliation.
📉 US Stock Market Trends:
US stocks experienced declines amid concerns over interest rate policies and economic forecasts. The bond market's weak performance and a rise in Treasury yields have contributed to market uncertainties, with significant indices like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq recording losses. The Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation further influences market sentiment.

US Planting Update + SLOW US Crush Expansion May 29, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽🌱 US Agriculture Weekly Update: Corn and Soybean Planting, Wheat Conditions, and Market Shifts 📈🌧️
Welcome back to our detailed update on the latest in US agriculture, from crop planting progress to shifting market dynamics!
🌽 Corn and Soybean Planting Progress:
Corn planting has slightly surpassed the average pace with 83% of the crop planted nationally, a notable increase from 70% the previous week. Key states like Iowa and Nebraska are leading with at least 85% of their corn crop in the ground. Soybean planting is also ahead, with 68% completed nationally compared to 52% last week. This is above the average pace, showcasing effective planting efforts across major soybean-producing states. For state-specific details, see the attached charts.
🌾 Winter and Spring Wheat Conditions:
US winter wheat ratings have experienced a slight dip, now at 48% good-excellent, with deteriorations noted in states like Kansas and Colorado. Meanwhile, spring wheat planting is advancing well, with 88% of the crop planted, surpassing the average. This suggests a resilient start to the wheat growing season despite some regional challenges. Updated charts are available below.
🌧️ Weather Impact on Crop Growth:
Rain is expected to return to the western Corn Belt and US Plains later this week, which could affect recently planted crops with potential delays in fieldwork. The forecast predicts extensive coverage, particularly in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. An extended wet pattern is anticipated, which could impact crop conditions moving forward. For a detailed weather outlook, refer to the maps linked below.
🌍 International Trade Developments:
Argentina is set to commence corn shipments to China in July, marking a significant step in international agricultural trade, particularly as China moves to import GMO corn variants for animal feed. This development follows years of negotiations and could impact global corn markets.
🚢 US Corn and Soybean Shipments:
Recent USDA reports indicate a decline in US corn shipments, contrasting with an increase in wheat shipments, highlighting fluctuating global demand. Soybean shipments have shown a slight increase from last week but remain down year-over-year. Detailed shipment data can be found in the USDA reports linked below.
🔔 Stay Updated:
Subscribe to our channel for regular insights into the agriculture sector, including detailed analyses of crop conditions, market trends, and weather impacts. Your engagement helps us provide the most relevant and timely content.

Wheat Prices SURGE on Russian Crop Scare May 28, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📈 Global Agriculture Update: Russian Wheat Production and Market Movements 🌍📉
Welcome back to our channel for an in-depth analysis of recent developments in global agriculture, focusing on Russian wheat production cuts, severe weather impacts, and agricultural market trends.
🌾 Russian Wheat Production Cuts:
The Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR has reduced its wheat production forecast by 2.4% to 81.5 million metric tons due to recent frosts and ongoing dry conditions. This adjustment is notably lower than USDA's estimate of 88 million metric tons. The accompanying maps below illustrate the forecasted warm and dry conditions expected to persist in Russia.
📉 Impact of Government Control on Russian Grain Exports:
Russian government pressure has increased local control over grain production and exports, leading major Western traders like Cargill and Louis Dreyfus to halt their Russian grain purchases. This shift has consolidated 75% of grain shipments from Russia's Black Sea terminals under top Russian traders with Kremlin ties, affecting global market transparency and pricing strategies.
📊 Market Movements in Agricultural Commodities:
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows increased net short positions in the corn market by funds, contrasting with net buying in soybeans and SRW wheat. This reflects broader trends and sentiments in agricultural commodities trading. For more details, see the Fund Tracker charts linked below.
🌪️ Severe Weather Impacts in the Great Plains and South:
Over the weekend, severe storms and tornadoes caused significant damage across several states, including Texas and Kentucky, leading to power outages, fatalities, and state-level emergency declarations. This severe weather is impacting agricultural and community recovery efforts in these regions.
🦠 Bird Flu Vaccination Considerations:
In response to recent human cases of bird flu, the US and other nations are considering vaccinating workers in high-exposure roles within poultry and dairy sectors. Talks are underway to secure millions of vaccine doses, highlighting the growing concern over potential virus mutations and human transmission risks.
🐄 Cattle Market Update:
The recent Cattle on Feed report showed figures generally in line with expectations, leading to a neutral market response. Key statistics include placements and marketings relative to last year, providing insights into current cattle market conditions.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing coverage of these crucial topics in agriculture and global markets, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We bring you the latest data and expert analysis to help you understand these complex developments.

ALARMING Soybean Demand Statistics May 24, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽🌎 Global Agricultural Trends and Economic Insights Update 📊🌱
Welcome back to our channel for a comprehensive breakdown of the latest agricultural export figures, global farming strategies, and financial impacts on retirement planning!
🌽 US Corn and Soybean Export Sales:
Last week saw a significant increase in US corn export sales, jumping 23% from the previous week with Mexico leading as the top buyer. However, soybean sales remain subdued, showing a modest improvement but still lagging behind the four-week average, with Japan as the major purchaser. Wheat sales notably declined, with Haiti purchasing the majority. For more detailed numbers, see the charts below.
🇨🇳 China's Grain Import Strategy:
China plans to drastically cut grain imports over the next decade by enhancing farming productivity through technological advancements and GMO crops. The ambitious targets include reducing corn imports by 75%, wheat by 60%, and soybeans by 21%. However, challenges such as limited arable land, water scarcity, and an aging farming population may hinder these goals.
🌾 USDA Drought Monitor Update:
Recent rainfall has improved drought conditions across the Corn Belt, with significant relief noted in Michigan, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, and Nebraska. Iowa has shown notable improvement with two-thirds of the state now drought-free. This update is crucial for understanding regional agricultural prospects. Access the full USDA drought report through the linked PDF.
🌍 International Grain Production Forecasts:
The International Grain Council has revised its global wheat production estimates downward, primarily due to poor weather affecting crops in Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, global corn production forecasts have been cut, with significant reductions in Argentina’s expected yield. These adjustments are vital for global market dynamics.
💰 Economic Impact on Retirement Accounts:
The surging stock market has notably benefited retirement accounts, with Fidelity Investments reporting record numbers of 401(k) millionaires. Despite these gains, many Americans face challenges in saving for retirement, exacerbated by inflation and a lack of access to workplace retirement programs.
🔔 Stay Updated:
Subscribe to our channel for regular updates on agricultural markets, global economic trends, and how these affect your financial planning. We aim to provide detailed analyses to help you navigate these complex topics.

plz don't shadowban me (Bird Flu News) May 23, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🦠 Bird Flu Case in Michigan:
A second bird flu infection has been confirmed in a Michigan dairy worker, marking another rare human case linked to dairy cattle. The individual experienced mild symptoms, primarily pink eye, and has since recovered. This follows a similar case in Texas earlier this year. The CDC has reassured there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission currently. In response, pharmaceutical companies like CureVac NV are developing vaccines, causing a notable surge in their stock prices.
🌩️ Severe Weather Forecast in the US Plains and Midwest:
The coming days will bring severe weather across the US Plains and Midwest, with potential for tornadoes, heavy winds, hail, and flash flooding. Areas expected to be hardest hit include central and eastern Nebraska today, with Kansas and Oklahoma on Saturday, and a range of states from Illinois to Arkansas by Sunday. For safety and preparedness tips, see the linked weather maps below.
🌾 Global Grain Prices and Russian Economy:
Russia faces potential economic challenges from rising global grain prices, exacerbated by recent dry weather and frost damaging its wheat crop. Historical measures have included bans on grain exports to stabilize domestic prices, with significant global repercussions. Current weather conditions and economic strategies in Russia are pivotal in understanding global food security and market fluctuations.
🌽 Brazil's Corn Crop Forecast:
Agroconsult has revised down its forecast for Brazil's second corn crop due to drought in major producing states. This anticipated 10.5% decrease in production could impact global corn supplies, although global stockpiles are expected to be at a five-year high. This situation underscores the complexities of agricultural economics and climate impacts on food production.
🚗 US Ethanol Production and Gasoline Demand:
Ethanol production in the US has shown an increase, aligning with rising gasoline demand. This trend offers insights into energy markets and potential economic indicators. Detailed statistics on production, stock levels, and demand trends can be found in the charts linked below.
🏦 Federal Reserve's Economic Outlook:
Federal Reserve officials signal that interest rates may remain high longer than anticipated, with potential further rate increases if inflation accelerates again. However, recent economic data showing cooling price pressures and a slowdown in hiring could influence future rate cuts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized the need for continued positive economic data before considering rate reductions.
🔔 Stay Updated:
Subscribe to our channel for ongoing coverage of these important topics. We bring you detailed analyses and updates to help you understand and navigate these developments.
💬 Join the Conversation:
How do these updates impact you or your sector? Share your thoughts and questions in the comments below. Your input helps shape our content!

SEVERE Midwest Weather + China Soybean Rumors May 22, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌩️ Severe Weather in the Midwest
Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds has issued a proclamation of disaster emergency for 15 counties due to severe weather on Tuesday. Several tornadoes touched down near Des Moines, with search efforts ongoing to account for those affected. The heaviest rainfall occurred in Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and southern Wisconsin, also impacting Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Check out the detailed weather maps below for more information.
🌾 Global Agricultural Market Trends
US Soybean Sales to China
Recent reports indicate that China may have purchased at least two cargoes of US soybeans. Each shipment is approximately 65,000mt and scheduled for July delivery. This comes amid a challenging season for US soybean sales to China, which has not purchased any new crop US soybeans for the first time in 19 years. Brazil remains a key supplier, although recent floods and the end of the prime export season have driven up prices.
Wheat Futures Rally
Wheat futures surged after Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR reduced its forecast for Russia's 2024/2025 wheat crop to 83.5mmt, a 10% decrease from last season. The drop is due to frosts and hot, dry weather. Similar conditions are expected to affect Ukraine's wheat crop, raising concerns about global supply shortages and pushing wheat futures to a nine-month high.
🏛️ Policy Updates
Gasoline Reserve Release
President Joe Biden announced the release of 1 million barrels of gasoline from the Northeast reserve to help lower prices as summer driving increases. The gasoline will be released between Memorial Day and July 4th. Despite this effort, experts believe it will have minimal impact on current prices, which are averaging around $3.60 per gallon.
📊 Economic Indicators
USDA Corn Sales
On Tuesday, the USDA reported multiple flash sales of corn. US exporters sold 113,050mt (4 million bushels) to Mexico, split evenly between the 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 marketing years. Additionally, 110,000mt (4 million bushels) were sold to Spain for the 2023/2024 marketing year.
Stay informed by subscribing and leaving your thoughts in the comments. Your engagement helps us bring you the latest updates on these critical issues!

US Corn Growers Plant 21% in ONE WEEK (Shoutout to South Dakota) May 21, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽📊 US Agriculture Update: Planting Progress, Weather Impact, and Market Trends 🚜🌦️
Welcome back to our channel where we dive into the latest developments in US agriculture, including crop planting updates, weather patterns, and commodity market trends!
🌾 Corn and Soybean Planting Progress:
Significant progress was made last week in corn planting, with 21% of the national crop planted, bringing the total to 70%. This is close to the average despite recent weather challenges. Key states like Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska are leading with over 70% of their crops planted. Soybean planting also advanced, now 52% complete, surpassing the average pace. The charts below provide a detailed state-by-state breakdown.
🌾 Winter Wheat Conditions:
The condition of the US winter wheat crop has seen a slight decline, now rated 49% good-excellent. Despite this, it remains the highest rating for this time of year since 2020. The spring wheat planting is ahead of schedule, with 79% completed nationally. Specific improvements and declines in states like Kansas and Oklahoma are highlighted in the attached charts.
🌧️ Weather Update for the Corn Belt:
This morning, rains swept across the western Corn Belt, affecting South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota. While the forecast shows a drier outlook, widespread rain remains expected in the region, potentially impacting further planting activities. Detailed precipitation maps are included below for a closer look at the affected areas.
🌍 International Wheat Market - Russia:
Recent frosts in Russia have led to a spike in wheat export prices and significant crop losses, prompting several regions to declare emergencies. Despite these setbacks, record grain exports are anticipated by Russia's agriculture ministry. This situation presents a complex dynamic in the global wheat market, with implications for prices and supply.
📈 Commodity Market Volatility:
A recent Forbes article draws parallels between today's commodity market behaviors and the volatile price movements of the 1970s. With prices expected to surge and then potentially crash, traders face both significant opportunities and risks. The historical comparison chart of corn prices from the 1970s to the 1980s is provided for context.
🚢 US Commodity Shipments:
Last week's corn shipments were robust, surpassing expectations, while soybean and wheat shipments fell short, highlighting the fluctuating nature of commodity exports. Detailed figures and comparisons to previous periods are shown in the charts below.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For ongoing insights into agriculture, weather, and market trends, subscribe to our channel and turn on notifications. Your engagement helps us tailor our content to your interests.

Rain is BACK! How Much Corn Was Planted Last Week?? May 20, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌧️🌾 US Corn Belt Weather Update & Agricultural Market Trends 📈🌽
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the latest agricultural trends and weather updates that impact planting and market dynamics!
🌀 Weather Conditions in the Corn Belt:
Rain has made a significant return to the Corn Belt this week, with an active radar observed since Sunday. Severe weather over the weekend and potential thunderstorms today are expected to affect several areas including South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio. This ongoing wet pattern could extend planting delays for many farmers. For detailed regional forecasts, see the maps linked below.
📉 Market Movements in Agriculture:
In the commodities market, fund traders have notably reduced their net short positions in corn and SRW wheat according to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report. This shift suggests a changing sentiment in the market which could influence corn and wheat prices moving forward. The visual Fund Tracker charts provide a comprehensive breakdown of these trends.
🌍 Global Wheat Exports:
Russia's wheat exports are projected to remain steady despite recent challenges. Severe frosts have damaged crops, leading to a need for replanting in several regions. Additionally, persistent dry conditions are further straining crop yields. These factors are crucial for global wheat supply considerations.
🌱 Biofuel Industry Developments:
Twenty-five biofuel organizations have urged the Treasury for clearer guidelines on the 45Z tax credit and an update to the GREET model, which are vital for forecasting the production of low-carbon renewable fuels. Delays in these updates could impact the industry's progress towards greener energy solutions.
🛢️ Oil Market Insights:
Oil prices have climbed, influenced by a drop in US crude inventories and optimistic economic forecasts suggesting potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. This increase is reflected in the significant rise in WTI crude prices, now surpassing $80 per barrel. Economic indicators and their implications on oil demand are explored in the context of current market trends.
🔔 Stay Updated with Our Channel:
For continued insights into weather impacts, agricultural markets, and broader economic trends, make sure to subscribe and turn on notifications. We provide detailed analyses to keep you informed and prepared.
📊 Engage with Us:
We value your thoughts and observations. Comment below how these updates are affecting your agricultural planning or market strategies!

US Weather + ZERO Chinese Corn/Soybean Purchases May 17, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🚰 US Drought Monitor Update:
Recent rainfall has brought some relief to the Corn Belt, improving drought conditions notably in parts of Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, and Iowa. However, areas like southwest Nebraska and central Kansas have experienced worsening dry conditions. The USDA's weekly drought monitor shows improvements and challenges across these regions. For a deeper dive, check out the linked USDA drought PDF.
🌱 Crop Condition and Export Sales:
Despite favorable weather in some areas, U.S. corn and soybean export sales have not met expectations. Corn sales saw a decline, with Mexico being the largest buyer, while soybean sales also dropped significantly, with Egypt leading purchases. Interestingly, wheat sales surged, thanks largely to demand from Mexico. The detailed charts below offer a clearer view of these trends.
🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Insights:
This year's Kansas wheat yield is projected to be the highest since 2021, thanks to improved weather conditions. Crop scouts estimate significantly higher figures than the USDA, suggesting potential market shifts. These findings could influence wheat market dynamics in the near term.
🌎 International Crop Forecasts:
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires grains exchange has cut its soybean production forecast due to adverse weather, aligning closely with USDA estimates. This reduction highlights the impact of climate on global crop yields and could affect soybean market prices.
📈 Economic and Stock Market Trends:
The Dow Jones made headlines by surpassing the 40,000 mark, reflecting optimism about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong earnings reports. However, the cautious stance of Fed officials regarding interest rates suggests that market volatility may continue. These financial movements are crucial for understanding broader economic trends.
🔔 Subscribe for Ongoing Updates:
Make sure to subscribe to our channel for regular, detailed updates on agriculture, weather, and economic trends. Your engagement helps us cater our content to what matters most to you!
🕒 Stay Informed:
Keep up with our updates as we continue to track important developments that affect the agriculture sector, weather conditions, and financial markets. Your insights are valuable, so share your thoughts in the comments below!

Farmer Selling Caps Corn Rally May 16, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 "Wall" of Farmer Selling
1:47 Rain / Weather
5:01 Reduced Soybean Crush
6:24 Ethanol Production Update
7:27 Soybean Flash
7:59 Consumer Inflation Update
9:37 Retail Sales
🌽 Corn Market Dynamics:
December corn struggles to surpass the $5 mark, affected by strong "hedge pressure" from farmers. With planting in full swing, farmer sales have intensified. Despite a substantial short-covering move, fund traders still hold a significant short position. The next two weeks of planting progress will be critical for future price actions.
🌧️ Weather Impact on Planting:
Recent rains in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and a stronger system in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri may influence planting schedules. Predictions suggest more widespread rain next week, likely causing further planting delays. Detailed precipitation maps below provide more insights.
🌱 Soybean Processing Data:
NOPA's latest report shows a drop in the April soybean crush to a seven-month low, significantly below market expectations. This downturn in processing volume coincides with reduced soybean oil stocks, marking the first decline since October. For visual details, see the accompanying charts below.
🚗 Ethanol Production and Gasoline Demand:
US ethanol production has seen an uptick, reflecting a year-on-year increase. However, implied gasoline demand shows a mixed picture, with a slight weekly increase but a notable decline compared to last year. This trend offers insights into broader economic activities, detailed in the charts below.
📈 Economic Indicators - Inflation & Consumer Spending:
Inflation moderated last month, with the CPI rising less than expected. This slower inflation rate and stagnant consumer spending in retail sales could influence upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, possibly leading to rate cuts later this year. Market reactions and potential impacts on policy are analyzed, supported by the latest charts.
🌱 Flash Sale of Soybeans:
A significant soybean sale to unknown destinations highlights continued demand in the export market. Details of the sale volumes for the upcoming marketing years are crucial for market stakeholders.
🔔 Subscribe for Regular Updates:
Don't forget to subscribe for more in-depth analyses on these topics. Your engagement and comments help us provide the most relevant and timely content.
🕒 Stay Informed:
Keep watching for updates as we track these important market and economic developments, helping you stay ahead in understanding their implications!

FIVE DAY Planting Window: Enough Time for Farmers?? May 15, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌦️ Weather Forecast for US Corn Belt:
The coming five days promise dry weather across key agricultural zones including Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan, providing a crucial "window" for farming activities before rains return next week. Expect 1-3 inches in selected areas—crucial info for our farming community!
🌱 Brazilian Crop Forecast:
Big news from Brazil as Conab projects a surge in soybean production to 147.7 million metric tons, thanks to expanded acreage. Meanwhile, the corn outlook sees a dip compared to last year. How will these shifts impact global commodity prices?
🇨🇳🇺🇸 New Tariffs Alert:
President Biden announces significant tariffs on Chinese goods including EVs and solar cells, marking a bold move in US-China trade relations. What does this mean for the economy and the upcoming election? Let’s discuss!
🌽 US Corn Sales:
USDA reports robust corn sales to Mexico, signaling strong export demand. Dive into the details of this impactful trade development.
📊 Economic Indicators:
April's wholesale price index jumped unexpectedly, hinting at persistent inflation pressures. Stay tuned as we break down what this means for the economy ahead of today's CPI report release.
👇 Visual Insights Below:
Don't miss our detailed maps and charts in the video below, providing you with a visual understanding of all these dynamics!
🔔 Subscribe for More Updates:
Hit that subscribe button for ongoing detailed analyses on agriculture and economic trends. Drop your thoughts and questions in the comments—we love hearing from you!
🕒 Stay Informed:
Remember to check back for more updates as we continue to track these critical developments affecting your world!

Wheat Prices SURGE on Russia Crop Scare May 14, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Russia Crop Scare Event
2:39 India Wheat Stocks are LOW
5:27 Planting Delays
7:33 US Weather Update
9:14 US Grain Shipment Update
10:14 Inflation Preview
Frost Impact in Russia & India: Explore how unseasonal frosts in Russia are fueling wheat export prices and affecting crop forecasts, alongside India's lowest wheat stocks since 2008 due to poor crops and government policies.
US Planting Updates: Get insights into the progress of US corn and soybean planting, with analysis on states ahead and behind schedule, and understand the implications for supply dynamics.
Weather Outlook: Discover the latest weather patterns across the US Corn Belt, highlighting areas of scattered rain and projections for the next five days. Stay updated on how these conditions could influence crop development.
Export Trends: Learn about recent trends in US corn, soybean, and wheat shipments, including variations from previous weeks and their impact on market sentiment.
Market Expectations: Explore the impact of rising stocks and bonds ahead of April's PPI and CPI readings, and understand market expectations for these key economic indicators.

"The Funds" and Corn Prices: MASSIVE Short-Covering Event May 13, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Short-Covering Event
2:04 USDA Report
5:24 Soybean Oil Spikes
6:42 Corn Belt Weather Update
8:13 China Import Forecasts
Fund Trader Activity: Explore how fund traders dramatically reduced their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets, marking the largest weekly short-covering events in years. Get insights from the latest CFTC data and understand the implications for market sentiment.
USDA Report Analysis: Learn about the favorable impact of Friday's USDA report on the corn market, including increased demand estimates for old crop US balance sheets. Understand the market response to USDA's projections for the 2024 crop year, particularly regarding trend US corn and soybean yields and South American production estimates.
Soybean Oil Futures Surge: Discover why soybean oil futures experienced a significant spike, settling 4.2% higher in response to anticipation of potential tariffs on Chinese used cooking oil. Learn how this development could affect biofuel production and market dynamics.
Weekend Weather Recap: Get a comprehensive overview of the weekend weather across the US Corn Belt, highlighting mostly dry conditions with some localized rainfall. Explore the forecast for rain returning early this week and its potential impact on key agricultural regions.
China's Import Forecast Reduction: Understand the implications of China's reduced import forecasts for corn and soybean crops, driven by expectations of higher domestic harvests and decreased capacity for domestic pig production.

USDA to Project MONSTER Crops May 10, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Tune in for the latest insights on today's USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, set to be released at 11:00am CST. Learn about the anticipated changes in old crop US balance sheets and the expected across-the-board cuts in global balance sheets, particularly for Brazil and Argentina's crops. Explore the implications of USDA's first new crop balance sheet projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat, and how they may influence market sentiment.
Discover the recent updates from the USDA's weekly drought monitor, highlighting improvements in drought conditions across key agricultural regions. Gain valuable insights into the areas experiencing drought, including the Corn Belt and its impact on crops such as corn, soybeans, and wheat.
Understand the emerging La Niña weather pattern and its potential effects on summer temperatures and precipitation in the US. Explore NOAA's forecast for warmer temperatures and drier conditions, and how they could exacerbate existing drought conditions.
Learn about the recent trends in US corn and soybean export sales, including the significant increase in net corn sales and the flash sale of corn to Mexico reported by USDA. Gain valuable insights into the factors driving export demand and their implications for market dynamics.
Stay informed and stay ahead in the ever-evolving landscape of agricultural markets. Don't miss out on the expert analysis and actionable insights – subscribe now for weekly updates on crop markets and agricultural trends. 🌱📉

Drier US Corn Belt Forecast- Planting to Accelerate?? May 09, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Drier (not dry) Forecast
2:04 Russian Frost
4:10 USDA Preview
5:59 GMO Wheat in China
7:14 Ethanol Production
8:17 SPR Debacle
Join us for today's agricultural market update as we analyze the latest developments impacting crop production and market dynamics. Discover how the US radar activity, including morning rain patterns across Iowa, Illinois, Tennessee, and Kentucky, may affect crop conditions in key regions. Explore the updated Euro model forecasts for the near and extended periods, providing insights into potential shifts in precipitation patterns.
Learn about the consequences of early May frosts on Russian crops, with three regions declaring a state of emergency and analysts revising crop production forecasts. Gain valuable insights into the upcoming USDA monthly Crop Production and WASDE report, which is expected to set a bearish tone for row crops, including corn and soybeans. Understand the significance of China's approval of gene-edited disease-resistant wheat and its implications for global food security.
In addition, we delve into the recent trends in US ethanol production and the Biden administration's decision to set a price ceiling to replenish oil reserves. Explore how these developments could impact the energy and agricultural sectors in the coming weeks.
Stay informed and stay ahead in the dynamic world of agriculture. Watch now for expert analysis, market insights, and actionable strategies. Don't miss out on the latest updates – subscribe today for weekly agricultural market updates. 🌱📈

"Fraudulent Used Cooking Oil" - Anti-American!! May 08, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 US Weather Update
2:05 FRAUDULENT Cooking Oil
6:06 Brazil Flood Update
7:41 Panama Canal Update
8:26 Argentina Problems
In this week's agricultural market update, we explore the impact of the upcoming drier spell in certain areas of the US Corn Belt and the potential consequences of used cooking oil (UCO) imports from China. Learn how the Euro model forecasts rainfall distribution across central and eastern Corn Belt regions versus drier conditions in North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and more.
We delve into the concerns raised by industry groups and biofuel companies regarding UCO imports from China, questioning if they meet US environmental standards amid suspicions of fraudulence. Discover the implications of increased inspection demands and the link between UCO and palm oil mixing, highlighting environmental sustainability challenges.
Furthermore, we discuss the aftermath of historical flooding in southern Brazil, examining the damage to grain silos and its impact on exports and the economy. Gain insights into ongoing recovery efforts and the potential losses incurred by unharvested soybean crops.
Lastly, we explore the recovery of the Panama Canal from drought conditions and the emerging threat of leafhopper outbreaks in Argentina, driven by rising temperatures and their implications for crop planning.
Stay informed and up-to-date on the latest agricultural market developments. Watch now to navigate your trading strategies effectively and anticipate future trends. Don't forget to subscribe for weekly insights and stay ahead in the dynamic world of agriculture. 🌱📈

US Corn Planting is SLOW May 07, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Join us for this week's agricultural market update as we explore the latest developments impacting crop planting progress, global wheat prices, and upcoming USDA reports. Learn how unfavorable weather conditions, including heavy rainfall and dry spells, are affecting US corn and soybean planting, as well as winter wheat ratings. Discover the implications of the wide band of storms sweeping across the central US and its potential impact on fieldwork delays.
We delve into the surge in Russian wheat prices driven by dry conditions and late spring frosts, offering insights into the potential repercussions for global wheat markets. Additionally, we provide a preview of the upcoming USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, highlighting expectations for national yield projections and demand adjustments.
Don't miss out on the latest updates shaping agricultural markets. Watch now to stay informed and navigate your trading strategies with confidence. Subscribe for weekly insights and stay ahead in the ever-changing world of agriculture. 🚜📊

Did Farmer Selling Cap the Corn Rally?? May 06, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
In this week's market update, we dive into the significant shifts in commodity markets driven by severe weather events and economic indicators. Join us as we explore the impact of heavy rainfall in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul, leading to devastating floods and potential losses in soybean production. Meanwhile, in the US, an active weather pattern continues to slow fieldwork across the Corn Belt, impacting planting progress and market sentiment.
We analyze the latest USDA flash sale of soybeans and its implications for global trade dynamics, shedding light on the ongoing market trends in agricultural commodities. Additionally, we delve into the recent release of US labor market data, which fell short of expectations, signaling a slowdown in job growth and wage increases.
Don't miss out on the insights and updates shaping commodity markets. Watch now to stay informed and make informed decisions in your trading strategies. Subscribe for weekly updates and stay ahead of the curve in agricultural commodities trading. 🌾📊

Brazil Flooding? US Delays? WHY Did Grains Rally This Week?? May 03, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
In this week's market update, we delve into the significant shifts in grain and oilseed futures driven by recent weather events and market dynamics. Join us as we explore the impact of heavy rains in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul, disrupting harvests and raising concerns over crop quality and yield losses. Meanwhile, in Argentina, the Buenos Aires grains exchange has slashed its forecast for the corn crop due to damage caused by leafhoppers and unfavorable weather conditions.
Back in the US, the release of the USDA's weekly drought monitor data highlights the mixed effects of recent rainfall on drought conditions across the Corn Belt and High Plains. While some regions saw improvements, others faced deteriorating conditions, impacting crop outlooks and market sentiment.
We also analyze the latest USDA export sales data, examining the trends in corn, soybean, and wheat sales and their implications for global trade dynamics. Additionally, we explore the role of fund traders in driving sharp rallies in grain and oilseed futures, shedding light on their positioning and market influence.
Don't miss out on the insights and updates shaping the grain and oilseed markets. Watch now to stay informed and make informed decisions in your trading strategies. Subscribe for weekly updates and stay ahead of the curve in agricultural commodities trading.

Rail Strike Imminent? + More Corn Belt Rain May 02, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🔔 Breaking News 🔔 - A potential rail strike in Canada threatens to shake up supply chains across North America. Over 9,000 workers from Canadian Pacific Kansas City and Canadian National Railway are on the brink of a strike, demanding increased rest periods. Despite the rail companies making offers, negotiations have stalled with the union rejecting these proposals. These two rail giants represent nearly 90% of the industry's profits and over 75% of the railroad transport volume. The strike deadline is looming on May 22. Stay tuned as we follow this developing story.
🌧️ Weather Update 🌧️ - Heavy rain has returned to the central US, affecting states like Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and North Dakota. A strong system also covers the Gulf Coast, signaling an active weather pattern that could continue for more than 10 days. Detailed weather maps below show predictions for more rain across the Corn Belt next week.
🌾 Ethanol Production Rises 🌾 - US ethanol production has seen a boost, with weekly output rising to 1 million barrels, a 3.5% increase from last week. However, despite a drop in ethanol stocks, the overall trend shows a significant year-over-year increase. Implied gasoline demand is fluctuating, with recent figures suggesting a decline compared to last year. Check out the latest charts below for a detailed analysis.
⛽ Oil Market Fluctuations ⛽ - Oil prices have plummeted to a seven-week low, with WTI crude dropping by 3.6% amid unexpected increases in US crude stocks and geopolitical developments. Diesel and gasoline futures have also dipped to their lowest since July 2023. We break down the factors driving these price changes and what it might mean for the market.
💹 Federal Reserve's Economic Outlook 💹 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating that rate cuts could be on the horizon depending on job market trends. Despite inflation pressures, the Fed is adjusting its strategy in hopes of achieving a 2% inflation rate. Dive into the discussion with our detailed analysis of the Fed's latest moves and economic projections.
📈 Stay Updated 📈 - Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications to keep up with all the latest developments. Comment below with your thoughts or questions!

Corn Jet Fuel News: What Did the Government Tell Us?? May 01, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Updated Guidance on SAF Subsidies: The Biden administration released updated guidance on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) subsidies, now allowing biofuels made from corn, soybeans, and other agricultural products in SAF production. To qualify for SAF tax credits, producers must demonstrate that their fuel emits at least 50% fewer emissions than petroleum-based jet fuel. Ethanol used in SAF production must originate from farms implementing climate-smart agricultural practices like efficient fertilizer application and no-till farming. This guidance aims to incentivize environmentally sustainable practices in biofuel production. 🌱✈️
Rainfall Patterns in Central US: Rain is forecasted to return to portions of the central US on Thursday and Friday, with heaviest amounts expected in Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, southeast Nebraska, and eastern Kansas. The 10-day forecast projects wet conditions across almost the entire central US and the US Corn Belt, with significant rainfall totals predicted. These rains could benefit agricultural regions but may also cause delays in fieldwork. 🌧️🌽
Delayed Wheat Shipments to Egypt: Vessels carrying wheat bound for Egypt have been delayed in Russian ports for weeks despite being inspected and approved for shipment. Each vessel is carrying about 60,000mt of wheat purchased from Russian grain exporter TD RIF. Issues with Russian federal authorities granting clearance have resulted in delays, impacting hundreds of thousands of grain shipments. This delay could affect wheat supply chains and global grain markets. 🚢🌾
Sharp Decline in ADM Shares: Shares of Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) fell sharply on Tuesday, dropping as much as 5.5%, following the company's announcement of reduced profit expectations for the year. Factors contributing to the decline include decreased farmer sales, abundant grain supplies, and increased imports of alternative feedstocks for biofuel production. ADM's first-quarter earnings also fell by 30% compared to the previous year, highlighting ongoing challenges facing the company. 📉💼
Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady following its meeting today, signaling that rate cuts are unlikely in the near future. Officials project a more patient approach to rate adjustments, aiming to ease inflation toward the Fed's target of 2%. This stance suggests that the Fed is not considering rate hikes at this time, emphasizing a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties. 🏦📈

US Continues to Lose Soybean Export Share Apr 30, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Decline in US Share of China's Soybean Market: This year, the US share of China's soybean market is expected to further decline, partly due to a bumper soybean crop in Argentina. Argentina is forecast to produce 50mmt of soybeans, double last year's production during a historic drought. Additionally, competitive prices from the Brazilian soybean crop will also hold a significant share of China's market. Last year, the US share of the Chinese market fell to 24%, with Chinese traders anticipating further decline due to concerns surrounding the US presidential election. 🌱📉
Strike of Argentine Oilseed Union: The Argentine Oilseed Crushers Union initiated a strike on Monday in response to a bill introduced by Argentina's president, Javier Milei. The bill proposes measures to reduce the minimum salary subject to income tax and includes labor reform. Milei aims to address high inflation and public spending since taking office in December, but opposition from the center-left and unions has impeded progress. The strike is expected to continue through today as Congress debates the legislation. ⚖️🇦🇷
Rainfall Patterns in US Corn Belt: Rainfall moved over far eastern areas of the US Corn Belt this morning, with more rain forecasted for Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and northern Missouri over the next 5 days. These rains may return to the western Corn Belt and other regions by Thursday, potentially hindering planting progress but also helping to alleviate drought conditions. 🌧️🌽
Progress of US Corn and Soybean Planting: US corn planting is ahead of schedule, with 27% of the crop planted nationally as of Sunday, surpassing the 22% average. Similarly, soybean planting progress is ahead, with 18% of the crop planted compared to the 10% average. However, some states still lag behind in planting progress, while others are well ahead. 🌱🚜
Winter Wheat Ratings and Crop Progress: US winter wheat ratings declined slightly last week, with 49% of the crop rated good-excellent. Despite this decline, the rating was in line with expectations and the highest for this time of year since 2020. Meanwhile, the spring wheat crop is progressing well, with 34% planted compared to the 19% average. 🌾📉
US Grain Shipments: Corn shipments declined last week, with 1.2mmt inspected for export, down from the previous week and compared to the same period last year. Similarly, soybean shipments were soft, while wheat shipments saw a slight increase compared to the previous week and a significant rise compared to the same period last year. 🚢🌾

Rain, Flooding, and Tornados: Planting Delays Ahead?? Apr 29, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Midwest Tornado Outbreak: Over the weekend, a flurry of tornadoes wreaked havoc across the Midwest. On Friday alone, 106 tornadoes tore through six states, causing widespread destruction, particularly in Nebraska and Iowa. Despite the catastrophic damage, few injuries were reported, and fortunately, there were no fatalities. However, on Saturday, several tornadoes struck Oklahoma, resulting in extensive structural damage and sadly, four fatalities along with numerous injuries. The affected communities are now in the process of recovery and rebuilding. 🌪️🏘️
Fund Traders Adjust Corn Positions: According to the latest Commitment of Traders data released by the CFTC, fund traders have reduced their net short position in the corn market. During the week ending April 23, they were net buyers of 46k contracts of corn, though the net short position remains historically large at 226k contracts. A similar trend was observed in soybeans, with fund traders being net buyers of 17k contracts, while maintaining a historically large net short position. Meanwhile, they were net buyers of 20k contracts of SRW wheat. 🌽💼
Impact of Biofuel Feedstock Imports on Soybean Market: The rise in biofuel feedstock imports, including alternatives like used cooking oil, tallow, and canola oil, has led to reduced demand for soybean oil. Consequently, crush margins have declined, prompting earlier seasonal maintenance closures of soybean processing plants. Despite government incentives driving soybean crush expansion, concerns over excess capacity have emerged due to heightened competition. In January, soybean oil accounted for a record-low 32% of feedstocks used for biodiesel production. 🌿🔧
Drought Threatens Russian Wheat Crop: Russia's wheat-growing regions are facing drought conditions, particularly in southwestern Russia, which could impact this year's wheat crop. Some industry experts have lowered their crop forecasts due to the adverse weather. While central Russia's spring planting and winter grain crops are expected to fare better, the overall grain harvest in Russia is projected to decline to 132mmt from 144.9mmt last year. 🌾🇷🇺
Inflation and Consumer Spending: The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, surged in March, exceeding expectations with a 2.8% gain on an annual basis. Consumer spending also saw a significant increase last month, rising by 0.5%, driven by a strong labor market. This combination of high inflation and robust consumer spending is likely to deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in the near future. 💲💹

Corn Belt Rains are BACK! Drought Buster? Planting Delays?? Apr 26, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
USDA's Weekly Drought Monitor: Light to moderate precipitation across the Corn Belt last week brought relief to many areas, improving conditions in parts of Minnesota, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as well as in parts of Iowa. However, dry conditions persisted in southern Missouri and western Kentucky, leading to expanding drought conditions in those areas. Additionally, above-normal temperatures and dry weather in the High Plains worsened conditions in central and western Kansas, the panhandle of Oklahoma, and eastern South Dakota. Drought remains a concern for various agricultural sectors. 🌧️🌾
US Wheat Futures Rally: US wheat futures rallied on Thursday, with the Jul24 Kansas City contract gaining over 10 cents and reaching its highest close since late December. The rally, which has seen the contract gain nearly $1 per bushel since early March, has been influenced by factors such as developments in the Black Sea region, potential Indian imports, and declining US crop ratings. The contract has closed higher for six consecutive days, reflecting market optimism. 🌾📈
Upcoming Climate Model for Ethanol Producers: The Biden administration is set to release a climate model next Tuesday that will determine how ethanol producers can qualify for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) subsidies through climate-smart agriculture practices. These practices include the use of cover crops, efficient tilling, and fertilizer application. The model is expected to be more restrictive for corn ethanol than initially anticipated, according to reports from Reuters earlier this month. 🌱🛢️
US Economic Growth Slows: US economic growth in the first quarter fell to a level not seen in almost two years, with GDP increasing at a 1.6% annualized rate, below economists' projections. Inflation rose more than expected during the same period, with the personal consumption expenditure price index climbing to 3.7%. The service sector's 5.1% increase was the main driver of inflation. These developments may lead to increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts further and even consider raising rates. 📉💰

India's Wheat Stocks are LOW! Game-Changer for Prices?? Apr 25, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
India's Wheat Stocks at 16-Year Low: India's wheat stocks have dropped to their lowest level in 16 years due to two consecutive years of lower crop yields. The Indian government is selling record amounts of stocks to increase local supply and lower domestic prices. Untimely rainfall in northern India has delayed purchases by state-run agencies, leading to a 25% decrease compared to last year. If stocks aren't replenished, India may need to import wheat for the first time since 2017. 🌾🇮🇳
Rain Returns to Central US: Rainfall is expected to return to the central US today and tomorrow, with the highest totals forecasted for Missouri, eastern Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and western Nebraska. The 5-day forecast indicates significant rainfall for Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, South Dakota, and North Dakota, while Indiana and Ohio will be drier. The active weather pattern may continue for at least a week, causing delays in fieldwork. 🌧️🌽
Bird Flu Detected in Grocery Store Milk: Grocery store milk has tested positive for bird flu, although the virus in pasteurized milk wasn't infectious. Starting Monday, the USDA will require dairy cattle to be tested for bird flu before being moved across state lines, focusing mainly on lactating cattle. Some cows infected with bird flu have not fully recovered their ability to produce milk, impacting the dairy industry. 🥛🐦
US Ethanol Production Declines: US ethanol production declined last week, with weekly output down 3% from the previous week and 6.8% lower compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were slightly down from the previous week but up compared to the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand also decreased compared to the previous week and the same week last year. 🌽🛢️
USDA Weekly Export Sales Report: USDA will release its weekly Export Sales report today, with pre-report estimates suggesting varying figures for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Analysts will closely monitor the report for insights into current marketing year trends and export demand. 📈🌾

Do Traders Care About Planting Delays?? (Corn Prices) Apr 24, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Rain Returns to US Corn Belt: Rainfall is expected to return to the US Corn Belt on Thursday and Friday, with coverage extending across Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, eastern South Dakota, and Nebraska. However, eastern areas like Indiana and Ohio will experience drier conditions. Increased rainfall may slow corn and soybean planting in affected areas. 🌧️🌽🌱
Improvement in Panama Canal Transit: Increased rainfall has led to improved transit through the Panama Canal, with average daily vessel crossings rising to 25 from 21 in late January. While still below pre-drought levels, the canal authority expects daily transits to reach 31 by mid-May and 32 by June. This uptick in vessel crossings will help alleviate global trade restrictions, with normal operations expected to resume by the end of this year or early next year. 🚢⛈️
Decline in Ukrainian Grain Output: Ukrainian grain output is forecasted to decline due to heavy rainfall delaying spring planting by 20% compared to last year. Reduced planted wheat acres have led to a projection of 19.9 million metric tons for Ukraine's wheat crop, down 11% from last year and significantly lower than the five-year average. The decline is attributed to farmers turning to more profitable crops amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. 🇺🇦🌾
Russia's Response to US Military Aid: Russia plans to intensify its attacks on Ukraine in response to new US military aid, following the passage of a $61 billion foreign aid package by the US House. The aid includes economic and military support for Ukraine, with the US set to begin shipping battlefield and air defense support pending Senate approval. Russia has stated that Western-supplied weapons to Ukraine are valid targets, further escalating tensions. 🇷🇺🇺🇸💥
US Consideration of Sanctions Against Chinese Banks: The US is considering sanctions against Chinese banks that support Russia's military, amid concerns that Beijing has been supplying Russia with dual-use goods. These goods, such as plane parts and machines, could aid Russia in rebuilding its military capabilities. US sanctions would target banks facilitating transactions for such goods, potentially cutting them off from the global financial system and causing them to fail. 🇺🇸🇨🇳💰

Why Did WHEAT Rally on Monday?? Apr 23, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
US Winter Wheat Ratings Decline: US winter wheat ratings dropped sharply last week, with the crop rated 50% good-excellent nationally, down from 55% the previous week and below analysts' expectations. However, it marked the highest rating for this time of year since 2021. Poor to very poor ratings increased to 16%, up from 13% the prior week. The crop's progress in heading also increased to 17% nationally. 🌾📉
US Corn Planting Ahead of Schedule: US corn planting is progressing ahead of schedule, with 12% of the crop planted nationally compared to 10% on average. Notable progress is seen in states like Kansas, Missouri, and Texas. However, some states like Colorado and Michigan lag behind in planting progress. Soybean planting is also ahead of average, with 8% of the crop planted nationally, led by states like Arkansas and Illinois. 🌽🌱
Brazilian Ethanol Arrives for SAF Production: Brazil's first shipment of sugarcane ethanol has reached the US for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production at LanzaJet's plant in Georgia. LanzaJet opts for Brazilian ethanol due to its lower carbon score, until US corn ethanol improves its environmental credentials. Several Brazilian mills have met SAF production certifications, indicating potential future shifts in feedstock usage. 🇧🇷🛢️🛫
Strong US Corn Shipments: US corn shipments surged last week, with 1.6 million metric tons inspected for export, marking a 73% increase compared to the same week last year. Soybean shipments remained steady, while wheat shipments decreased from the previous week but rose compared to the same week last year. 🚢🌽
ADM CFO to Resign: The former CFO of ADM, Vikram Luthar, has agreed to resign after being suspended in January amid an SEC investigation into the company's accounting practices. Luthar's departure follows a significant decline in ADM's shares and market value. Despite his resignation, he will receive his annual cash performance incentive award for 2023. 🏦📉📉

Is the Western Corn Belt Drought Being Busted?? Apr 22, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Limited Rainfall in US Corn Belt: Rainfall will be limited over the next few days, with return expected later in the week. A significant accumulation of 1-3" of rain forecasted in western Corn Belt, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan during the 5-10 day period, potentially alleviating drought conditions, particularly in Iowa. Below-normal temperatures expected in the eastern Corn Belt this week. 🌧️🌽🌾
Brazilian Dominance in Chinese Market: Brazilian corn and soybeans maintain dominance in the Chinese market. China's soybean imports from the US plummet by 50% in March, while Brazilian soybean imports surge by 81%. Chinese corn imports from Brazil also spike by 72%, with US imports plunging by 78%. High prices and reduced feed demand contribute to the decline in Chinese imports. 🇨🇳🌽🌱
Large Net Short Position Held by Fund Traders: Fund traders maintain historically large net short positions across the grain complex. Net sales of corn and soybeans contracts, along with SRW wheat, persist. The CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders data reveals continued bearish sentiment. 📉💼💵
US House Passes Foreign Aid Package: The US House of Representatives approves a $95 billion foreign aid package, with significant allocations for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Senate expected to vote on and pass the bill, despite requests to include US border legislation. House also approves bill to ban TikTok unless parent company divests from app. 🏛️💰🤝
Neutral Cattle on Feed Report: Friday's Cattle on Feed report viewed as neutral and somewhat supportive of the cattle market. Cattle on feed slightly lower than anticipated, with placements significantly lower than expected. Marketings also below pre-report estimates, contributing to the report's neutral to somewhat friendly outlook. 🐄📊📈
Flash Sales Reported by USDA: USDA reports multiple flash sales, including corn sales to Mexico and soybean sales to unknown destinations for both the current and upcoming marketing years. The sales contribute to ongoing export activity amidst changing market dynamics. 🌽🚢🌱

5-Day US Planting Window Ahead? Apr 19, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Improvements in Drought Conditions Across Corn Belt: Widespread precipitation alleviates drought conditions in the majority of the Corn Belt, particularly in southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northeast Iowa, and Michigan. However, flash drought conditions emerge in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. 🌧️🌽🌾
Israel's Drone Strike in Iran: Israeli drones struck targets in western Iran, with Iran claiming the strike was unsuccessful. Despite initial market rallies in crude oil and wheat futures, prices quickly retreated. 🇮🇷🇮🇱🛸
Argentina's Corn Crop Estimate Reduced: USDA lowers its estimate for Argentina's corn crop to 51mmt, citing stunt disease, dry weather, and reduced planted acres. Forecast for the 2024/2025 season predicts further decline to 48mmt with fewer planted acres due to disease and lower prices. 🌽🇦🇷📉
Expansion of E15 Sales Expected: EPA set to announce temporary expansion of E15 sales from June 1 to September 15, following senators' push for increased energy security amid geopolitical tensions. Earlier approval for year-round sales in eight Midwestern states starting April 2025. 🌽⛽🔋
Bitcoin Halving Impact: J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank suggest bitcoin halving won't boost prices, but rather prompt unprofitable miners to exit, leading to market consolidation. Regulatory changes and Federal Reserve rate cuts expected to maintain high bitcoin prices. 🪙📉📈

Why is Biden Doing "Trump Stuff?" (China Tariffs) Apr 18, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Biden's Tariff Proposal on Chinese Imports: President Biden suggests increasing tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum imports from 7.5% to 25%, aiming to address trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. 🇨🇳🇺🇸🛢️
Concerns Over Argentina's Corn Crop: The Rosario Grains Exchange likely to further reduce Argentina's corn crop estimate due to a disease spread by leafhoppers, causing significant losses; only 15.3% of the crop harvested so far. 🌽🇦🇷📉
US Ethanol Production Decline: Weekly US ethanol output drops by 7%, while stocks remain relatively stable; gasoline demand shows slight improvement compared to last year. 🇺🇸🌽⛽
Oil Price Decline Despite Geopolitical Tensions: Oil prices fall over 3% despite Iran-Israel tensions, as market awaits potential supply disruptions and Israel's anticipated retaliation against Iran. 🛢️🇮🇷🇮🇱
Decline in Ukraine's Grain Production: Ukraine's grain production in 2023 reaches 60mmt, expected to decline by 13% in 2024 due to decreased planted acres, affecting wheat, corn, and barley output. 🌾🇺🇦📉

US Corn Growers are LOSING the SAF "Race" Apr 17, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Brazilian Ethanol and SAF Production: LanzaJet in Georgia is launching SAF production using Brazilian sugarcane ethanol, awaiting American corn ethanol improvements for SAF tax credits. 🌱🇧🇷🛫
Rainfall Impact and Weather Models: Recent rain in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana; conflicting Euro and GFS weather model predictions for Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, with government WPC map maintaining Iowa rainfall but leaving eastern Corn Belt drier. 🌧️🗺️🌽
US Dollar Strength and Safe-Haven Status: US dollar reaches five-month high against euro and highest level against Japanese yen since 1990, attributed to hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Powell and safe-haven bounce due to rising Iran-Israel tensions. 💵📈🌍
Grain Production Decline in Ukraine and Russia: Ukraine's grain harvest forecasted to decline by 10% due to reduced planted acres, with soybean acres rising sharply by 22%; Russia's grain harvest projected to decline by 9% this year. 🌾📉🇺🇦🇷🇺
Interest Rate Outlook and Inflation Concerns: Fed Chair Powell suggests interest rates may need to stay higher for longer due to stubbornly high inflation, impacting Wall Street expectations with first rate cut pushed back from June to September. 💼📉📊

Record US Soy Crush + Planting Progress Apr 16, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
NOPA March Crush Data: NOPA reports record-high soybean crush of 196.4 million bushels in March, up 5.5% from February and 5.7% from March 2023, with end-of-month soybean oil stocks increasing to 1.9 billion pounds, surpassing pre-report estimates; largest end-of-month supply since May. 🌱📊📈
US Corn Planting Progress: US corn planting slightly ahead of schedule at 6% nationally, vs. 5% on average, with notable progress in IA, MO, NE, MN, while states like CO, MI, ND, OH, PA reported no planting; soybean planting at 3% complete nationally. 🌽🚜📅
US Winter Wheat Ratings: US winter wheat ratings remain strong at 55% good-excellent nationally, best since 2020, with only 13% rated poor to very poor; crop 11% headed nationally, while US spring wheat planting progresses to 7%. 🌾⛅️📉
Anticipated Interest Rate Increase: Major banks project Fed's likelihood to raise interest rates, citing strong US economy and persistent inflation, with UBS estimating rates could climb as high as 6.5% by early next year, potentially leading to equity decline of 10% to 15%. 💰📈🏦
US Grain Shipments: US corn shipments decline to 1.3mmt, soybean shipments at 432,905mt, and wheat shipments surpass pre-report estimates at 551,278mt; USDA reports flash sale of corn to Mexico totaling 165,000mt, with 135,000mt for 2023/2024 and 30,000mt for 2024/2025 marketing year. 🌾🚢📉

Carbon Pipeline Problems + Middle East Conflict Apr 15, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Summit Carbon Solutions Pipeline Challenges: Start date for the world's largest carbon capture-and-storage project delayed until early 2026 due to farmer resistance and regulatory hurdles, leading to rerouting of pipeline 6,300 times and nearly doubling estimated cost to $8 billion; proponents argue pipeline is crucial for ethanol industry's competitiveness amid global carbon reduction efforts. 🛢️🌱💰
Iran's Attack on Israel: Iran launches unprecedented attack on Israel using 350 drones and missiles, intercepted by Israel and western allies; Israel weighs response while Biden administration refrains from backing retaliatory strike to avoid regional conflict, leading to lower crude oil futures. 🚀🇮🇷🇮🇱
Grain Complex Fund Traders Position: Fund traders maintain historically large net short positions across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat, with net short of 256k contracts in corn and 126k contracts in soybeans; slight buying observed in SRW wheat. 🌾📉💹
Chinese Demand Trends: Chinese soybean imports drop nearly 20% in March to four-year low, attributed to weakened feed demand and consumer consumption, with anticipation of rise in second quarter post-Brazil harvest completion; China may cancel European corn shipments to support domestic prices amid bumper crop and reduced feed demand. 🇨🇳🌱📉
NOPA March Crush Data Expectations: Traders anticipate NOPA members crushed record-high 197.8 million bushels of soybeans in March, up 6.2% from February and 6.4% from March 2023, with soybean oil stocks forecast at 1.8 billion pounds, up 6% from February but down 3.2% from March 2023; NOPA report to be released today. 🌱📈📊
US Soybean Flash Sale: US exporters report fourth flash sale of soybeans since April's start, totaling 124,000mt for 2023/2024 marketing year, bringing total flash sales for April to 654,404mt. 🌱🚢💼

Is USDA Lying About Brazil?? (Corn and Soybean Production) Apr 12, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
USDA's Adjustments to Crop Estimates: USDA reduced US soybean export estimate, leading to larger carryout projection for current marketing year, while increasing demand for US corn in feed and ethanol categories; US wheat demand reduced in feed and residual categories, with unchanged estimates for Brazilian corn and soybean production but slight reduction in Argentina's corn crop. 🌾📉📊
Conab's Forecast for Brazilian Crops: Conab predicts Brazilian soybean crop to reach 146.52mmt, down 5.2% from last year, with corn crop expected at 110.96mmt, down about 16%, due to unfavorable conditions in Mato Grosso resulting in fewer acres and lower yields. 🇧🇷🌱📉
Drought Monitor Data for the US: Weekly data shows improved drought conditions in parts of the Corn Belt but worsening conditions in western Kentucky and parts of the High Plains, with drought expanding in northern South Dakota and southeastern North Dakota; overall, drought affecting significant portions of corn, soybean, and wheat regions. 🌧️🌾🇺🇸
China's Corn Purchase Dynamics: China cancels Ukrainian corn purchases, possibly around 300,000mt, to support domestic farmers amid low grain prices and high domestic supplies; cancellations follow similar moves with Australian and US wheat in March, attributed to falling Chinese grain prices and economic challenges. 🇨🇳🌽🛑
US Grain Export Sales Trends: US corn export sales hit marketing year low, declining 66% from the previous week, while soybean sales improved by 57%, and wheat sales were up noticeably; Japan, Mexico, and the Philippines were the largest buyers for the respective grains. 🚢🌾📉

China Might Be Canceling Corn Purchases Apr 11, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
China's Corn Purchase from Ukraine: China is set to import 600,000mt of corn from Ukraine by the end of April, with an additional 400,000mt slated for May, as part of an expected 22mmt corn export season for Ukraine; China's increased grain imports driven by lower global prices and reduced domestic production. 🌽🇨🇳🇺🇦
Upcoming Storm System in US Corn Belt: Northwestern US Corn Belt braces for significant storm system next week, with eastern areas expecting rainfall while western regions remain dry; Northern Plains and northwest Corn Belt forecasted to experience storms with possible rain and snow, potentially affecting HRW wheat country in Southern Plains. 🌧️🌾❄️
Higher-than-Expected US Consumer Prices: US consumer prices rose 3.5% in March, slightly above economists' forecast of 3.4% and February's 3.2% increase, leading to stock market declines; investors now anticipate fewer rate cuts by the Fed, possibly delaying cuts until July or later amid persistently high inflation. 💲📉📈
USDA's Monthly Crop Production and WASDE Report: USDA to release monthly report featuring old crop data for the US, with new crop balance sheets for corn and soybeans expected in May; trade expects lower Brazilian production estimates and minimal changes to old crop US balance sheets. 🌱📊📉
Iran-Israel Conflict Impact on Oil Prices: Brent crude surpasses $90 a barrel as anticipation mounts for an attack on Israel by Iran or its allies, following heightened tensions in the Middle East; conflict contributes to 16% rise in oil prices since the year's start, with Biden administration pledging support for Israel in case of an attack. ⚔️🛢️💥

Vilsack: China Has Political Motives for Avoiding US Grain Apr 10, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
China's Potential Retaliation Against US Grain Imports: US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack suggests China may favor Brazilian corn and soybeans due to recent legislation limiting US farmland ownership; Chinese imports of US agricultural products decrease by $6 billion in the first quarter, prompting Vilsack to advocate for diversifying export markets away from China. 🌾🇨🇳💼
Commodity Price Surge Indicates Economic Improvement: Global commodity prices, reflected in the S&P GSCI index, surge by 12% this year, outpacing the S&P 500's 9.1% increase; rising prices driven by expectations of increased demand from the US and China, with experts anticipating further climbs as real incomes rise, potentially affecting Federal Reserve's rate decisions. 💹📈💰
USDA's Crop Production and WASDE Report Expectations: USDA's monthly report on Crop Production and WASDE to feature old crop data for the US, with new crop balance sheets for corn and soybeans expected in May; trade anticipates lower Brazilian production estimates and minimal changes to old crop US balance sheets. 🌽📊📉
USDA Reports Flash Sale of Soybeans: US exporters sell 124,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2023/2024 marketing year; accumulated soybean sales show a 19% decrease compared to the same period last year. 🚢🌱💰
USDA's Discontinuation of Reports Draws Criticism: USDA's decision to cease July cattle inventory report and other data publications due to budget constraints criticized by the National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) for lack of transparency; elimination of county-level data could pose challenges for grain traders. 📉🚫📊
Treasury Yields Decline Ahead of Inflation Data Release: Treasury yields fall as investors await CPI and PPI data releases; CPI forecasted to show 3.4% increase in March, while PPI expected to indicate 2.2% yearly rise in prices, contributing to uncertainty regarding timing and frequency of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 💹📉💲

Evil "Bankster" Predicts 1980s Style Interest Rates Apr 09, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Commodity Sector's Strong Week: The Bloomberg Commodity Index records its best performance in nine months, surging by 3.4%, buoyed by gains in coffee, silver, lean hogs, gold, and select energy markets, yet grain prices remain subdued amid broader market rally. 📈☕🥩🌟
Fund Traders' Positions: Net short positions in the corn market increase as funds sell contracts, maintaining historically large bearish stance, while soybeans witness a similar trend with net short positions near record levels; modest buying seen in SRW wheat futures. 📉🌽🌱
Rainfall Outlook for the Corn Belt: Eastern areas of the Corn Belt expected to receive favorable rainfall, benefiting parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio, while western regions remain dry; 10-day Euro model predicts rainfall for North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa. 🌧️🌽🗺️
SAF Subsidy Model by Biden Administration: Preliminary model for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) subsidy to be released next month, potentially imposing stricter criteria favoring sustainable agriculture practices for corn used in SAF production, disappointing ethanol industry expecting broader eligibility options. 🌱✈️💰
Argentina's Corn Estimate Reduction: Buenos Aires Grains Exchange revises down corn forecast to 52mmt due to increased prevalence of leafhoppers spreading disease, impacting crop development; soybean crop harvesting underway, projected at 52.5mmt. 🌽🦗🇦🇷
US Job Growth Surges: March sees robust job additions of 303,000, surpassing expectations, while average hourly wages grow at slowest pace since June 2021, indicating moderate wage inflation; rising workforce participation suggests healthy labor market conditions. 💼💵📈

Commodity PARTY!! Will Grains Ever Be Invited?? Apr 08, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Commodity Sector's Strong Week: The Bloomberg Commodity Index records its best performance in nine months, surging by 3.4%, buoyed by gains in coffee, silver, lean hogs, gold, and select energy markets, yet grain prices remain subdued amid broader market rally. 📈☕🥩🌟
Fund Traders' Positions: Net short positions in the corn market increase as funds sell contracts, maintaining historically large bearish stance, while soybeans witness a similar trend with net short positions near record levels; modest buying seen in SRW wheat futures. 📉🌽🌱
Rainfall Outlook for the Corn Belt: Eastern areas of the Corn Belt expected to receive favorable rainfall, benefiting parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio, while western regions remain dry; 10-day Euro model predicts rainfall for North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa. 🌧️🌽🗺️
SAF Subsidy Model by Biden Administration: Preliminary model for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) subsidy to be released next month, potentially imposing stricter criteria favoring sustainable agriculture practices for corn used in SAF production, disappointing ethanol industry expecting broader eligibility options. 🌱✈️💰
Argentina's Corn Estimate Reduction: Buenos Aires Grains Exchange revises down corn forecast to 52mmt due to increased prevalence of leafhoppers spreading disease, impacting crop development; soybean crop harvesting underway, projected at 52.5mmt. 🌽🦗🇦🇷
US Job Growth Surges: March sees robust job additions of 303,000, surpassing expectations, while average hourly wages grow at slowest pace since June 2021, indicating moderate wage inflation; rising workforce participation suggests healthy labor market conditions. 💼💵📈

US Growing Season: "East vs. West" Situation?? Apr 05, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Weekly Drought Monitor Update: Precipitation alleviates drought in Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana while worsening conditions persist in Kentucky; minimal improvements observed in South Dakota, highlighting ongoing drought challenges across key agricultural regions. 🌧️🌱🌾
Spread of Bird Flu: Bird flu outbreak expands into an Ohio dairy herd after transmission from a Texas dairy, prompting USDA confirmation across six states; although minimal risk to humans, the virus's spread raises concerns for livestock industries. 🐦🦠🐄
Rising Oil Prices: WTI crude climbs to $86.59 per barrel, driven by Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and supply constraints, leading to a surge in gasoline prices to $3.57 per gallon, intensifying inflationary pressures. ⛽️🛢️💰
Rate Cut Speculations: Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts if inflation remains persistent, with Minneapolis Fed President suggesting no cuts needed this year if economic strength persists, highlighting a shift in policy outlook amid heightened inflationary concerns. 🏦💲📉
US Grain Export Sales: Corn export sales decline slightly, while soybean and wheat sales show notable drops, signaling mixed demand dynamics amidst global market uncertainties; flash sale of soybeans to Mexico offers a glimmer of hope amid sluggish export performance. 🌽🌾🚢

Is Russia Curbing Wheat Exports? Rally Opportunity?? Apr 04, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Russian Grain Export Restrictions: Russia halts grain exports from major exporter Aston due to quality issues, marking the second restriction on shipments amid increased complaints from importing countries, impacting global grain markets with US wheat futures rallying. 🇷🇺🌾🚢
Chinese Corn and Wheat Production Forecast: USDA report predicts higher corn production in China for the 2024/2025 season, leading to a decline in corn imports, while wheat production is expected to rise slightly, reflecting China's emphasis on boosting domestic production to meet feed demand. 🇨🇳🌽🌾
US Ethanol Production Increase: Weekly ethanol output rises by 1.8% compared to the previous week and 7% year-on-year, with ethanol stocks slightly up, and implied gasoline demand showing an increase, signaling a modest uptick in ethanol production amid growing fuel demand. 🇺🇸🌽⛽
Bird Flu Outbreak Affects Egg Production: Cal-Maine Foods exterminates 3.6% of its flock due to bird flu outbreak, impacting egg production, as confirmed cases spread across Texas, Oklahoma, Michigan, New Mexico, and Idaho, leading to market volatility in cattle futures. 🐔🦠🥚
Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Outlook: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicates no rush to cut interest rates despite higher-than-expected inflation data, emphasizing the need for further assurance of declining inflation towards the Fed's target, with upcoming job reports shaping future monetary policy decisions. 🏦💲📉

Corn Erases Report-Day Gains, China to Discourage Imports?? Apr 03, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Corn Futures Decline: Despite USDA's report showing fewer projected corn acres, futures suffer significant losses due to farmer sales and limited short-covering, indicating ongoing market pressure. 🌽📉
Chinese Corn Import Limits: Chinese customs request traders to curb corn imports to address domestic oversupply, resulting in prices hitting a three-year low, while government efforts aim to stabilize prices amidst surplus concerns. 🇨🇳🌽📉
Oil and Gold Market Trends: Oil prices surge to a six-month high amid rising Middle East tensions and OPEC+ production cuts, while gold reaches record highs as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainty, despite the US dollar and Treasury yields rising. 🛢️📈💰
Investor Sentiment on Rate Cuts: Strong economic data prompts investor pessimism about potential rate cuts, with swap markets projecting fewer reductions than expected by the Fed, signaling a shift in expectations amid improving economic indicators. 📊💼💰
US-China Relations: President Biden's call with President Xi Jinping addresses key bilateral issues and tensions surrounding Taiwan, aiming to stabilize relations, as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's upcoming visit to China seeks to further dialogue and address escalating concerns. 🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳
Corn Futures Decline: Despite USDA's report showing fewer projected corn acres, futures suffer significant losses due to farmer sales and limited short-covering, indicating ongoing market pressure. 🌽📉
Chinese Corn Import Limits: Chinese customs request traders to curb corn imports to address domestic oversupply, resulting in prices hitting a three-year low, while government efforts aim to stabilize prices amidst surplus concerns. 🇨🇳🌽📉
Oil and Gold Market Trends: Oil prices surge to a six-month high amid rising Middle East tensions and OPEC+ production cuts, while gold reaches record highs as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainty, despite the US dollar and Treasury yields rising. 🛢️📈💰
Investor Sentiment on Rate Cuts: Strong economic data prompts investor pessimism about potential rate cuts, with swap markets projecting fewer reductions than expected by the Fed, signaling a shift in expectations amid improving economic indicators. 📊💼💰
US-China Relations: President Biden's call with President Xi Jinping addresses key bilateral issues and tensions surrounding Taiwan, aiming to stabilize relations, as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's upcoming visit to China seeks to further dialogue and address escalating concerns. 🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳

Crop Progress + BIRD FLU Scare Apr 02, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
USDA released its first Crop Progress report of the year on Monday. US corn planting was 2% complete through Sunday. Progress was noted in only Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas. USDA did not release a soybean planting statistic. The US winter wheat crop was rated 56% good-excellent, up from late November national ratings of 50% good-excellent. This was the strongest seasonal rating since 2019.
A person in Texas has been diagnosed with the bird flu. The infected individual worked at a dairy farm where some cows tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu last week. It's unknown if the person contracted the disease from dead birds on the farm or from a dairy cow. Even though officials insisted that food supplies were safe, live and feeder cattle futures plunged on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were down as much as $7.50/cwt, while live cattle futures saw losses reach $6.10/cwt. This is the second case of bird flu in an individual in the US. It's believed that there is little risk to the general public.
Export prices for Russian wheat continue to rise. Export prices increased for the third consecutive week last week. The rise was attributed to dryer than normal conditions for this season's wheat crop. According to Sovecon, Russia exported 840,000mt of wheat last week, down 26% from the previous week. The consultancy lowered its estimate for wheat exports in March by 2% to 4.9mmt, which is still a record for the month.
Brazil's soybean harvest continues to progress. According to well-followed private group AgRural, 74% of Brazil's soybean crop had been harvested as of last Thursday. At this time last year, 76% of the crop had been harvested. Recent rainfall has slowed harvest and also impacted grain quality in some regions. AgRural also reported that hot and dry conditions in some areas are causing concern for Brazil's second corn crop.
US corn shipments increased last week. USDA reported that corn shipments during the week ending March 28 surpassed pre-report estimates at 1.4mmt (56mil bushels). The print was up 14% from the previous week and up 30% compared to the same week last year. Soybean shipments fell below pre-report estimates at 414,484mt (15mil bushels). The print declined 47% vs. the prior week and was down 18% compared to the same week last year. Wheat shipments exceeded pre-report estimates at 498,989mt (18mil bushels). The print was +15% from the previous week and +196% vs. the same week last year.
WTI crude oil traded to fresh 5-month highs on Monday. Reports of an Israeli missile strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, were partly responsible for the price surge. WTI rose 0.7% to close at $83.71 per barrel, its highest close since October. The reduction in oil production by OPEC+, at least until the second quarter, has supported prices. In the next few months, Mexico's state-run oil company plans to halt some crude exports, which could further tighten global supply. Expectations of strong global demand have also contributed to higher oil prices. Year-to-date, WTI is up almost 18%.

How BULLISH was the USDA Report?? (Corn Prices) Apr 01, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Monday morning sees a mixed sentiment in the grain markets as US farmers announce intentions to plant fewer corn acres but increase soybean plantings. USDA's Prospective Plantings report reveals a significant decline in total principal crop acres, triggering market reactions. US corn, soybean, and wheat stocks show notable increases compared to last year, with corn stocks slightly below expectations. Despite improved drought conditions in some regions, concerns persist in areas experiencing dry spells. 🌧️📉🌾
In financial markets, the S&P 500 hits record highs, reflecting robust economic performance as GDP growth surpasses expectations. The stock market's bullish trend continues, with consecutive monthly gains across major indexes. 📊📈💼

Could Soybeans Become the "King" of US Crops?? Mar 28, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Bloomberg's report highlights soybeans' potential ascent to America's top crop, fueled by soaring demand for soybean oil driven by President Biden's green energy agenda. This shift threatens corn's dominance as EV adoption reduces ethanol demand. Today's USDA Prospective Plantings report unveils projections of decreased corn acreage and increased soybean acreage, alongside larger stockpiles of corn, soybeans, and wheat. 📊🌽📈
Agroconsult raises its estimate for Brazil's soybean production to 156.5mmt, citing increased planted acres. However, concerns arise over China's soybean import data accuracy, with discrepancies between Chinese and US/Brazilian figures. Meanwhile, US ethanol production edges up slightly, indicating modest growth amidst fluctuating gasoline demand. 🇧🇷🌾📉

Bridge Collapse: Any Ag Impact?? Mar 27, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore disrupts shipping routes, rerouting thousands of trucks daily and increasing shipping costs. This setback, coupled with recent rainfall across the US Corn Belt, brings relief to drought-plagued regions but raises concerns for wheat growers amidst below-freezing temperatures. Meanwhile, anticipation builds for the USDA's Prospective Plantings report, projecting a decline in US corn acreage and a rise in soybean acreage, alongside larger stockpiles. 🌉🚛🌽
Russian wheat export prices surge as global demand rises, supported by projected record-setting exports and increased crop yields. However, the Federal Reserve records its largest operating loss ever in 2023, driven by increased interest expenses amidst rising rates, highlighting the complexities of monetary policy in a shifting economic landscape. 💰🌾📉

China Sanctions + "Useless" USDA Acreage Report Mar 26, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
The US and UK have leveled accusations against Chinese government-linked hackers for launching malicious cyberattacks targeting political officials and voters' records. The unsealing of indictments and subsequent sanctions signals heightened tensions, likely straining China's already tense relations with both nations. 🇨🇳💻🌐
Anticipation brews for the USDA's annual Prospective Plantings report, with traders forecasting a decline in US corn acreage but a significant rise in soybean acreage. Despite larger stockpiles of corn, soybeans, and wheat, the market awaits Thursday's release for concrete insights into planting intentions. 🌱📈🌽
Brazil's soybean harvest progresses steadily, although concerns persist over a lack of rainfall, potentially impacting yields. Meanwhile, China's increasing investments in gold amid economic uncertainties, evidenced by heightened central bank purchases and surging consumer demand, reflect a trend toward secure assets amidst global economic volatility. 🌾🚜🇧🇷

Iowa SNOW Event + "The Funds" Mar 25, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro
0:39 Weekend Rain/Snow Event
2:21 "The Funds"
6:11 Black Sea Tensions
7:22 Reduced Brazil Soybean Estimate
8:24 Biofuel Lobby Pushed Govt
9:48 Flash Sale to Mexico
10:24 Cattle on Feed Update
Recent rainfall and snowfall offered relief to portions of the drought-stricken Corn Belt, particularly in Iowa and Minnesota, although challenges persist. Fund traders have modestly reduced their net short positions in the corn market, while soybean market dynamics remain influenced by speculative activity. 🌧️🌨️📉
In Ukraine, Russia's aggressive aerial assault on critical infrastructure, including power facilities, has intensified geopolitical tensions, resulting in widespread damage and power outages. Meanwhile, USDA's Brazil attaché office revised down its soybean crop estimate, citing lower yield expectations compared to official forecasts. 🇺🇦🚀🌱
Calls for increased sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production have grown louder, with biofuel and farm organizations urging the Biden administration to adopt the GREET model for calculating SAF tax credits. However, delays in decision-making, fueled by concerns over agricultural land use and climate considerations, have stalled progress. Advocates emphasize the importance of avoiding changes that could negatively impact the ethanol industry. 🛢️🌱📈
USDA reported a flash sale of corn to Mexico, signaling continued demand for US grain exports. However, the latest Cattle on Feed report, with placements surpassing expectations, weighed on the cattle market, viewed as bearish due to higher-than-anticipated numbers. 🌽🐄📉

Biden Finalizes Rule to INCREASE EV Sales Mar 22, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
The Biden administration finalizes rule to accelerate transition to zero-emission vehicles 🚗⚡, requiring automakers to increase EV sales and reduce carbon emissions from gas-powered cars between 2027 and 2032. Options provided for automakers to meet targets, raising concerns from ethanol and oil industries about affordability and availability of gas-powered vehicles.

USDA to release prospective plantings report 🌱 next week. AgMarket's projections are showing a decline in corn acres, an increase in soybean acres, and a significant decline in wheat acres due to pricing and USDA's acreage adjustments.

US corn export sales decline 🌽, while soybean sales increase, with notable cancellations from China and other countries impacting wheat sales.
Louis Dreyfus reports over $1 billion in profit for 2023, reflecting market volatility and investments in new assets, including domestic ethanol operations.

Weekly drought monitor data shows mostly unchanged conditions in the Corn Belt, with slight improvements in some areas, while drought persists across the High Plains.
Cattle on feed report expected later today, with projections indicating increases in placements due to weather disruptions, to be released at 2:00 p.m. CST. 📊🌧️🐄

Chinese Imports of Brazilian Corn and Soybeans SURGE Mar 21, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Brazil dominates China's corn and soybean market 🇧🇷🌽🌱, with imports surging. Brazilian corn imports skyrocketed by 178%, accounting for 66% of China's total, while US imports plummeted by 67% to 12%. Similarly, Brazilian soybean imports soared 211%, making up 53% of China's total, while US imports fell 51% to 38%.

Excessive rainfall threatens Argentine crop yields 🇦🇷🌧️, potentially damaging corn and soybean crops. Despite alleviating drought in some areas, oversaturation poses risks to harvests, with estimates of soybean production at 50 million tons and corn at 57 million tons likely impacted.

USDA reports flash sale of soybeans 🛒, with 120,000mt sold for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

US ethanol production rises 📈, reaching 1.05 million barrels last week, up 2.1% from the previous week and 3.2% year-over-year. Stocks remain stable, with gasoline demand showing mixed trends.

Federal Reserve maintains rates and monetary outlook 🏦, signaling three rate cuts this year despite inflation uptick. Market response is positive, with S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all reaching new highs. Probability of rate cuts starting in June rises to 75%. 📉📈🇺🇸

Will MILLIONS of Dollars from the USDA Expand Global Markets?? Mar 20, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
US agriculture groups seek millions in aid to regain global markets 🌎🌾. Last year, USDA launched a $1.3 billion program aiming to expand US crop markets over five years, focusing on southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Applications for aid exceeded $900 million this round. Brazil and Russia have surpassed the US in soybean, corn, and wheat exports.
Rain forecast across US Corn Belt offers relief 🌧️. Prolonged drought affects Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and parts of other states. Widespread precipitation expected Sunday to Tuesday could bring up to three inches of rain, though weather forecasts may change rapidly.
Brazilian soybean export outlook improves 🇧🇷🌱. Anec projects March soybean exports at 14 million tons, up 2.1%, but soymeal exports decrease. Corn exports dip 8.2%, while wheat exports rise nearly 3%.
EU plans tariffs on Russian and Belarusian grain imports 🇪🇺🌾, symbolically responding to farmer demands amid Green Deal rules. Russian imports minimal compared to Ukrainian imports. EU imports 1.8 million tons of Russian grain, 19.1 million from Ukraine. Tariffs unlikely to impact trade or prices significantly.
Federal Reserve likely to maintain current policy outlook 🏦. Expected to reaffirm three rate cuts this year, with no immediate reduction. Investors await updated dot plot, revealing future rate projections. S&P 500 sets new record high, with Wall Street monitoring Fed's policy announcement for inflation concerns' impact on rate cut expectations. 📈💵

Corn Belt "Drought Buster" Next Week??? Mar 19, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Widespread rainfall forecasts bring hope to drought-stricken regions across the US Corn Belt, potentially alleviating dry conditions in Iowa, Minnesota, and other key agricultural areas. Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean harvest advances steadily, but concerns loom over hot, dry weather impacting the second corn crop. 🇺🇸🇧🇷
Russian wheat export prices ticked up as spring planting accelerates amid insufficient precipitation, raising worries for future crop yields. In the US, corn shipments surged, while soybean shipments softened, reflecting ongoing dynamics in global grain trade. 🌾🚢
Oil prices surged to four-month highs, buoyed by unexpected increases in Chinese industrial activity and geopolitical tensions fueled by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries. Concerns over a potential supply deficit, coupled with bullish trends in gasoline futures, contributed to the rally in crude prices. 🛢️⛽💰
US Treasury yields edged higher ahead of the Federal Reserve's March meeting, with investors awaiting insights into the central bank's stance on interest rates. Expectations for rate cuts later this year persist amid economic uncertainties, with markets closely monitoring the Fed's guidance for future monetary policy decisions. 💵📈🏦
Stay informed about weather developments, harvest progress, commodity market shifts, and geopolitical tensions to navigate evolving agricultural and financial landscapes effectively. Monitor forecasts, trade data, and central bank announcements for timely insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities. 🌐📊🔍

Short-Covering + RECORD Soy Crush Mar 18, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Fund traders made notable adjustments in commodity markets, reducing their net short position in corn while maintaining a significant position in soybeans, according to the latest CFTC data. Meanwhile, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a record soybean crush for February, surpassing expectations and contributing to increased soybean oil stocks. 📉🌽📈
Former President Trump's rhetoric on trade escalated over the weekend, as he threatened to impose 100% tariffs on cars built by Chinese companies in Mexico if reelected. This follows earlier threats of tariffs on Chinese goods, highlighting ongoing tensions in global trade dynamics. 🚗🇨🇳
USDA reported a flash sale of corn to unknown destinations, adding to robust export activity in the commodity. However, geopolitical tensions escalated with reports of a Russian drone attack damaging agribusinesses in Odesa, Ukraine, underscoring the broader impact of regional conflicts on agricultural operations. 🌐💥
Stay informed about market fluctuations, trade developments, and geopolitical risks as they influence investment strategies and commodity prices. Monitor CFTC data, industry reports, and geopolitical news to navigate evolving market conditions effectively. 📊🌍💡

Soybean Reversal + US Drought Concerns Mar 15, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Soybean futures underwent a downside reversal after early gains on Thursday, with the most traded May24 contract peaking near $12.17 per bushel before succumbing to selling pressure. The day ended with a lower close, reflecting uncertainties in the market amidst debates over Brazil's soybean crop size, especially given the significant disparity between USDA and CONAB estimates. 🌾💹
In the US, the latest weekly drought monitor data from USDA highlighted above-average temperatures across the Corn Belt, leading to improved drought conditions in some regions but expansion in others. The majority of the High Plains also experienced warm temperatures, impacting drought conditions. Check out the USDA's drought report for detailed insights. 🌱🌧️
Russia's grain production is forecasted to rise in the upcoming season, with wheat production estimated to reach 93 million tons, contributing to a total grain production of 147 million tons. This projection reflects a 2.1% increase from the current season's forecast, suggesting continued significance in global grain markets. 🇷🇺🌾
Meanwhile, China's recent cancellation and postponement of Australian wheat purchases, totaling about one million tons, come amidst a backdrop of global market dynamics influenced by Russia's increased wheat exports. The cancellations indicate a strategic move by China to leverage market conditions for more favorable pricing. 🇨🇳🌾
US export sales saw mixed results, with improved corn sales but a decline in soybean sales compared to the previous week. Notably, a flash sale of corn to Mexico was reported, underscoring ongoing trade dynamics. Additionally, February's producer-price index reflected significant increases, signaling ongoing inflationary pressures that may impact the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting decisions. 💼📈
Stay informed about the evolving landscape of agricultural markets, global trade dynamics, and economic indicators as they continue to shape investment strategies and market sentiment. 🌍💡

Brazil is Dry: Problem for Corn Crop?? + ADM Justice Dept Probe Mar 14, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Dryness in Brazil
2:29 Cheap Russian Wheat
5:26 Ethanol Production Update
6:52 Soybean Crush Update
8:29 More ADM Problems
Key Brazilian 🇧🇷 corn-growing regions, particularly in southern Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, are facing substantial moisture deficits due to limited rainfall since February 1st. While some relief is forecasted, additional rains will be crucial during April and May to mitigate the deficits. See maps below for detailed regional insights. 🗺️☔
Meanwhile, a surplus of Russian 🇷🇺 wheat has flooded the global market, driving down prices significantly. Russia's record wheat exports, expected to reach 51 million tons this season, have led to the lowest prices for Russian wheat exports since August 2020. Consequently, US 🇺🇸 and European 🇪🇺 wheat prices have plummeted to their lowest levels in three and a half years, with global prices likely to remain under pressure due to sizable crops in the US and Russia. 📉🌾
In the US, ethanol production declined last week, with weekly output down 3.1% compared to the previous week and 1.4% lower than the same week last year. However, ethanol stocks remained relatively stable, with implied gasoline demand showing a marginal increase compared to the previous week. ⛽📉
On Friday, NOPA will release February crush data, with traders estimating a crush of 178.06 million bushels of soybeans, marking a slight decrease from January but a notable increase from February 2023. Additionally, soybean oil stocks are forecasted to be at their highest since June, reflecting a 5.6% increase from January but a 12.1% decrease from February 2023. 🌱📊
Amid challenges in its nutrition segment, ADM is working to rebuild, following an internal investigation into accounting practices that caused shares to plummet. Despite spending billions to expand its nutrition sector, ADM saw a 36% decline in operating profit in 2023. While the company is taking aggressive steps to repair the sector, investor confidence remains uncertain. 💼💡
Stay tuned for updates on weather patterns, global market dynamics, and corporate strategies as these factors continue to shape agricultural and economic landscapes worldwide. 🌍🌱📉

Will Fund Traders Hold Shorts into US Growing Season? (Corn/Soybeans) Mar 13, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Row Crop Rally
3:13 CONAB Cuts Estimates
6:52 Brazilian Farmers are Undersold
8:08 Panama Canal Update
9:22 Inflation Progress Stalls
Soybean futures saw a significant rally, marking their best close in a month, fueled by lower-than-expected Brazilian production estimates from CONAB and short-covering activities. The May24 contract gained nearly 17 cents, closing at $11.96 per bushel. Conversely, the May24 corn contract closed unchanged, matching its best close since mid-February.
Brazil's crop production estimates were revised downward by CONAB, citing unfavorable weather conditions. Soybean production forecasts were lowered by almost 2% to 146.9 million metric tons (mmt), while total corn production estimates decreased by nearly 1% to 112.8 mmt. The reduction in corn production was attributed to decreased planting acreage.
Despite Brazilian soybean sales reaching 36.6% of estimated production, lagging behind the historical average, farmers are holding onto crops in anticipation of price rebounds. Safras and Mercado projected this season's soybean crop to reach 149.1 mmt.
In other news, the Panama Canal Authority announced a 12% increase in daily transits later this month, aiming to alleviate restrictions implemented due to low water levels caused by reduced rainfall. However, transit through larger Neopanamax locks will remain restricted.
Meanwhile, February's inflation rose faster than expected, with a 0.4% increase for the month and a 3.2% rise compared to last year. Energy costs contributed significantly to the uptick, with food costs remaining flat, shelter costs rising, and gasoline prices surging.
Stay tuned for evolving market trends, as global production estimates and inflationary pressures continue to influence agricultural and economic landscapes. 🌾📉📊

Trade War Part 2?? Some Businesses are Preparing Mar 12, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Former President Donald Trump announced plans to reinstate tariffs on foreign goods if reelected, citing a strategy to regain leverage for the US. Trump's previous administration implemented tariffs on several countries, a move continued under the Biden administration, with most tariffs on China remaining in effect. Critics argue tariffs raise import costs and are ineffective.
Meanwhile, bankruptcies are on the rise in Brazil's agriculture sector due to declining corn and soybean prices from bumper crops. Last year saw a notable increase in bankruptcies and applications for bankruptcy protection, signaling financial strain among Brazilian farmers and agricultural investment funds.
In the US, soybean shipments declined last week, while corn and wheat shipments saw mixed trends. Notably, there were further "flash cancellations" of US SRW wheat to China, marking the third cancellation in a week, indicating shifting trade dynamics.
Brazil's soybean harvest pace has slowed due to recent rainfall, with 55% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday. Additionally, planting progress for Brazil's second corn crop is ahead of last year, reaching 93%.
Stay tuned for updates on trade policies, agricultural market dynamics, and global harvest progress as these factors continue to shape the agricultural landscape. 🌾📉💼

Is China BACK?? USDA's Upward Demand Revisions (Soybeans) Mar 11, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Friday's USDA report brought few surprises, with old crop US balance sheets for corn and soybeans remaining unchanged, while the US wheat export projection saw a 15 million bushel cut. A small downward revision to Brazil's soybean crop estimate was made, although it remains above consensus. Notably, the report highlighted upward demand revisions for Chinese soybeans across multiple marketing years, with an upward revision to this year's Chinese soybean import forecast.
In market movements, fund traders maintain historically large net short positions across the corn and soybean complex, with net buying observed for corn contracts but continued selling for soybeans and SRW wheat contracts. Additionally, USDA reported another "flash cancellation" of US SRW wheat to China, marking the second cancellation in two days.
On the global front, the United Nations' food price index has reached its lowest level since February 2021, attributed to expectations of a significant South American corn crop and competitive prices from Ukraine. Vegetable oil prices also declined due to abundant supplies from South America, reflecting in a 22.3% year-over-year drop in the agency's cereal index.
Despite market fluctuations, job growth exceeded expectations last month, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 275,000, surpassing economists' projections. However, revisions to December and January job growth figures were downward, with the unemployment rate increasing slightly to 3.9% in February.
As agricultural and economic landscapes continue to evolve, stay informed with updates on market trends and their broader implications. 🔄🌱💼

Solar Panels on Farm Land: Good or Bad??? Mar 08, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
As farmers navigate lower grain prices and rising input costs, many are turning to solar development as a lucrative alternative revenue stream. With farmer income projected to decline by 26% this year, leasing land to solar developers offers a promising solution to offset financial pressures. The surge in solar adoption is further fueled by President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, which provides tax incentives for solar projects. Despite the potential benefits, concerns loom regarding the accelerated loss of farmland, with the US witnessing a significant decrease of 20 million acres of agricultural land between 2017 and 2022.
Today marks the release of the USDA's monthly Crop Production and WASDE report, anticipated to shed light on the latest agricultural outlook. While no major changes are expected in the US balance sheets, traders await potential revisions, especially concerning Brazilian soybean production estimates, which may see a substantial reduction compared to previous forecasts.
In market developments, a "flash cancellation" of US corn to China was reported on Thursday, impacting the wheat market sentiment. Despite this, US soybean export sales showed improvement, with China emerging as the largest buyer for the week. However, concerns persist over cancellations of previous soybean purchases by unknown destinations. Net corn sales remained steady, with Japan leading in purchases, while net wheat sales witnessed a decline, notably to the Philippines.
The USDA's weekly drought monitor highlighted mixed conditions across key agricultural regions, with improvements seen in parts of the Midwest but exacerbations in others, particularly in Iowa and parts of the High Plains. These dynamics continue to influence market sentiments amidst evolving weather patterns.
Furthermore, the dollar weakened on Thursday as markets speculated on potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Chair Jerome Powell hinting at a shift in monetary policy. Meanwhile, labor market data suggested ongoing stabilization, with the Labor Department set to release February's employment report today, providing further insights into economic trends.
Stay tuned for updates on agricultural market trends and their broader economic implications. 🔄🌾💼

Again?? China to Cancel More US Grain Purchases Mar 07, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Wheat futures plunged to their lowest level in over three years on Wednesday, with SRW futures reaching a nadir near $5.20 per bushel, driven by concerns over oversupply and potential cancellations of US SRW wheat purchases by China. The market also grappled with the persistent pressure of competitively priced wheat from Russia, further dampening global prices. Amidst this backdrop, trade chatter highlighted the volatility and uncertainty in wheat markets. 🌾💔
In a move towards renewable energy, Bunge Global and Chevron have joined forces to establish Bunge Chevron Ag Renewables LLC, focusing on renewable fuel feedstocks. The partnership aims to construct an oilseed processing facility in Louisiana, near the Gulf Coast, capable of processing soybeans and softseeds like winter canola. Anticipated to commence operations in 2026, the facility will also contribute to the feed and protein sectors by producing meal products. 🌱⚡🛢️
Meanwhile, US ethanol production witnessed a decline last week, reflecting a weekly output of 1.06 million barrels, down 2% from the previous week but up 5.4% compared to the same period last year. Despite marginal increases in ethanol stocks and gasoline demand, the sector faces challenges amid fluctuating market dynamics and regulatory uncertainties. 🇺🇸⛽
In South America, Argentina braces for reduced precipitation this fall, following the waning of El Nino. The shift in weather patterns raises concerns over drier conditions, potentially impacting the country's soybean and corn crops. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange forecasts Argentina's soybean crop at 52.5 million tons and the corn crop at 56.5 million tons amidst evolving climate conditions. 🌧️🇦🇷🌽
Amidst inflation concerns, the Federal Reserve maintains its stance on interest rate cuts later this year, despite robust inflation and hiring data in January. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasizes the need for more evidence of easing inflation before implementing rate cuts, despite previous plans for multiple cuts in 2024. The market awaits further insights into the Fed's policy decisions amidst evolving economic indicators. 📈💵🏦
Stay tuned for updates on shifting market trends and their impact on global economies. 🔄🌍💼

Biodiesel Problems: Chevron Idles Two Midwestern Plants Mar 06, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Chevron, the second-largest US oil producer, has closed two biodiesel plants located in Ralston, IA, and Madison, WI, citing deteriorating economics for renewable fuels. With a combined capacity of processing 50 million gallons of biodiesel annually, these closures highlight challenges facing the renewable fuels sector, including declining values of renewable credits and increased supplies, leading to decreased biodiesel prices. Interestingly, this decision comes merely two years after Chevron's acquisition of biodiesel maker Renewable Energy Group for $3.15 billion, signaling a shift in strategic focus amidst evolving market dynamics. 🔄📉
In other agricultural news, USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday, with traders anticipating minor demand revisions but a substantial reduction in the Brazilian soybean production estimate. Meanwhile, Australian wheat production is projected to rebound by 9% to 28.4 million tons in the 2024/2025 season, following challenges in the previous season due to adverse weather conditions. Despite an increase in production, Australian grain exports may decline as domestic reserves are replenished and grain is directed towards animal feed. 🌾📉
In the financial markets, both gold and Bitcoin reached significant milestones this week. Gold surged to a fresh all-time high, reaching $2,141.79 an ounce, driven by geopolitical concerns, expectations of monetary easing, and rising risk in the stock market. Conversely, Bitcoin set a new all-time high, briefly surpassing $68,800, propelled by the recent approval of bitcoin ETFs by the SEC and anticipation surrounding the upcoming halving in April, which is expected to limit the cryptocurrency's supply. 📈💰💡
Stay tuned for updates on shifting market dynamics and their impact on commodities and digital assets. 📊🌍💼

China to Stockpile Grains and Oilseeds - More $ Allocated Mar 05, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
In recent weeks, China has ramped up its grain purchases, acquiring over 1.2 million tons of corn, sorghum, and barley from various sources including the US and Ukraine. These purchases, comprising more than 20 cargoes, reflect China's efforts to bolster its grain reserves amidst sluggish global prices and to support domestic prices by stockpiling ahead of the planting season.
Additionally, China has allocated significant funds, totaling $19.54 billion, to expand its grain and oilseed stockpiles, marking an 8.1% increase from the previous year. This investment underscores China's commitment to ensuring food security and increasing domestic production to meet the needs of its vast population.
Meanwhile, USDA reported multiple flash sales on Monday, including corn sales to Taiwan and soybean cake and meal sales to unknown destinations, indicating continued demand for US agricultural products in global markets.
Despite these developments, US soybean shipments declined last week, while Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing steadily, with 48% of the crop already harvested according to AgRural. Moreover, Brazil's second corn crop planting is advancing rapidly, with 86% planted compared to 70% during the same period last year.
In the renewable energy sector, Valero, the nation's second-largest ethanol producer, has partnered with Summit Carbon Solutions to transport carbon from eight of its facilities through Summit's proposed pipeline. This partnership aims to facilitate carbon transportation across the Corn Belt, with the pipeline expected to carry 18.5 million metric tons of carbon annually and involve more than half of the US corn ethanol industry.
Stay tuned as global grain markets evolve amidst changing demand dynamics and strategic investments aimed at enhancing food security and sustainability. 🌾📈🌍

DRASTIC Decline in Crop Insurance Levels (Corn, Soybeans, Wheat) Mar 04, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Spring crop insurance prices for Dec24 corn and Nov24 soybeans have been set, reflecting significant declines compared to the previous year. The average price for Dec24 corn in February was $4.66 per bushel, down sharply from last year's $5.91, while the Nov24 soybean contract averaged $11.55 per bushel, a notable decrease from last year's $13.76. These lower insurance levels pose challenges for many US row crop operations, as they now fall below the cost of production, unlike last year's levels that mostly exceeded production costs.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration's delay in climate modeling for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) feedstocks has raised concerns within the ethanol industry. The administration's decision to revise the climate modeling, particularly regarding verification methods for climate-smart agriculture practices, may impact the industry's eligibility for SAF tax credits. As a result, alternative methods such as solar energy and sustainable farming may need to be adopted to qualify.
In the commodities market, fund traders maintain a historically large net short position across the corn and soybean complex. Weekly Commitment of Traders data released by the CFTC shows "the funds" holding a net short of 288k contracts in corn and 151k contracts in soybeans, reflecting significant bearish sentiment. However, fund traders were net buyers of 41k contracts of corn during the week ending February 27.
Brazil's soybean forecast witnessed opposing revisions last week, with StoneX raising its estimate to 151.5 million tons while AgResource significantly reduced its projection to 143.92 million tons. The adjustments were influenced by recent weather patterns and yield fluctuations. Both groups also lowered their outlook for Brazil's corn crop, citing various factors impacting production.
In the oil market, OPEC+ extended its voluntary oil supply cuts until the end of June, aiming to stabilize prices and prevent a global surplus. These measures, coupled with ongoing supply reductions, reflect efforts to counteract increased production from rivals like US shale drillers and maintain international oil prices around $80 a barrel.
Stay informed on evolving market dynamics and geopolitical developments as stakeholders navigate challenges and opportunities in the agricultural and energy sectors. 🌱📉💼

Is China Back?? PNW Corn Rumors Mar 01, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Corn futures have surged over the past four days, with the May24 contract climbing from a low near $4.09/bu on Monday to a peak at $4.32/bu on Thursday. The rally comes as hedge pressure likely diminishes following the pricing or rolling of March basis contracts. Speculation surrounding potential Chinese corn purchases from the US Pacific Northwest further fueled market chatter, contributing to the upward momentum. Fund traders, who were estimated to hold a net short of 330k contracts, may have also influenced the market dynamics.
While corn futures exhibit strength, US soybean export sales remain lackluster, with net sales down 30% from the prior 4-week average. Despite notable purchases from China, cancellations from unknown destinations offset some of the gains. Conversely, net corn sales saw an increase of 32% from the previous week, with Mexico emerging as the largest buyer. Wheat sales also showed improvement, driven by substantial purchases from Japan.
In other developments, US ethanol production and consumption witnessed a rise in 2023, reaching their highest levels since 2019. The growing popularity of E15 and E85 sales, coupled with an increased blend rate, contributed to this uptrend. Meanwhile, drought conditions persist across key agricultural regions, particularly in the Corn Belt and high plains, exacerbating concerns about crop yields.
Geopolitically, Russia's reluctance to renew the Black Sea grain deal raises tensions, with Ukraine wary of potential disruptions to its grain export routes. Additionally, China's rapid expansion of space-based military capabilities, as reported by the US Space Command, underscores growing concerns about global security dynamics.
Amidst these developments, the Federal Reserve observes a continued easing of inflation, as reflected in the personal consumption expenditures price index. While expectations of rate cuts loom, recent inflation data, including a 2.4% yearly increase in PCE, present uncertainties regarding the timing of monetary policy adjustments.
Stay informed on the latest market trends and geopolitical shifts shaping the agricultural and financial landscapes, as stakeholders navigate evolving challenges and opportunities. 🌾📉🚀

Southwest Airlines LUV$ Corn Ethanol Feb 29, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Discover how Southwest Airlines and LanzaJet are collaborating to construct a cutting-edge US facility dedicated to producing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) from ethanol. With Southwest's $30 million investment, the facility aims to be operational within the next three to four years, contributing to LanzaJet's ambitious goal of producing one billion gallons of SAF annually by 2030.
Meanwhile, IFM Investors, an Australian airport investor, plans to inject over $651 million into SAF production in Australia, with a vision to increase the percentage of SAF in Australia's jet fuel consumption to 10% by 2030. This significant investment aligns with global efforts to reduce aviation emissions, supporting the Australian government's target of producing 3.7 billion gallons of SAF by 2050.
Stay updated on US ethanol production trends, recent declines notwithstanding, and ongoing adjustments in Brazil's soybean crop estimates due to adverse weather conditions affecting both northern and southern regions.
In other news, New York's legal action against JBS SA underscores the growing scrutiny of environmental commitments within the meatpacking industry, while lawmakers' agreement to avert a government shutdown provides temporary relief, funding government agencies until March 8 and March 22.
Keep abreast of these developments shaping the aviation industry, agricultural sector, and governmental policies, as stakeholders navigate toward a more sustainable and resilient future. ✈️🌱🏢

China Skips the US, Buys Cheap Ukrainian Corn Feb 28, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 China Buys Cheap Ukraine Corn
3:21 Warm Temps Across Corn Belt
6:11 Soybean Flash Sale
7:11 European Farmers Aren't Happy
8:35 Home Prices Remain High
Explore the latest market dynamics as 🇨🇳 China makes significant corn purchases from 🇺🇦 Ukraine for livestock feed, overcoming transport disruptions caused by 🇷🇺 Russia's exit from the Black Sea grain deal. Delve into the estimated purchase volume and its impact on global grain trade.
Experience the unusual warmth that shattered temperature records across the 🇺🇸 United States earlier this week, followed by a sudden chill from a frigid high-pressure system in the Midwest. Learn about the forecasted return of record warmth this weekend, with projections suggesting one of the warmest winters and expectations for 2024 as the hottest year yet.
Stay informed on USDA's flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations, contributing to recent sales, and Poland's considerations to widen bans on Ukrainian food imports amidst negotiations.
Meanwhile, discover the housing market's resilience as home prices hit all-time highs in December, driven by a severe shortage of homes for sale despite slowing demand due to high-interest rates. Gain insights into experts' forecasts for continued price increases and buyer eagerness as mortgage rates decline.
Stay updated on these key developments shaping global trade, weather patterns, and the housing market. 🏡🌾📈

Was that THE BOTTOM? Corn Market Posts Upside Reversal Feb 27, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽 The corn market saw an upside reversal on Monday, with the May24 contract bouncing from lows near $4.09/bu to a 13-cent rally and higher daily close. 📈 Huge trading volumes were observed, possibly due to US farmers pricing most of their March basis contracts, alleviating some hedge pressure. 💰 Fund traders were estimated to be buyers of 5k contracts of corn on the day.

🌱 Estimates for Brazil's soybean crop continue to shrink, with AgRural reducing its forecast to 147.7 million tons due to hot and dry weather. 🇧🇷 As of last Thursday, 40% of Brazil's soybeans had been harvested. Additionally, 73% of Brazil's second corn crop had been planted.

🌾 Russian wheat prices hit a three-year low, dropping to their lowest level since 2020. 🇷🇺 Analysts suggest further reductions to compete with European wheat. Russia exported 870,000 million tons of wheat last week, with Sovecon increasing its estimate for this season's wheat crop to 93.6 million tons.

🚢 US soybean shipments declined, with 974,977mt inspected for export, down 25% from the previous week. 🌾 Corn shipments increased by 18%, while wheat shipments rose by 15% compared to the previous week.

💰 Bitcoin surged to its highest level in over two years on Monday, surpassing $54,000. 🪙 Interest in cryptocurrency has risen as traders position themselves ahead of Bitcoin's halving in late April.

Fund Trader "Sharks" Force Bad Grain Sales Feb 26, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095
Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG
Google https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS83OTMwMjIucnNz
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Attention traders! Large money managers are setting record short positions in the corn market, indicating significant bearish sentiment. Explore the implications of this trend and its potential impact on market dynamics. Get insights into recent soybean export sales, which plummeted to a marketing-year low, raising concerns about demand.
In geopolitical news, the Biden administration imposes over 500 new sanctions on Russia, targeting individuals, financial sectors, and entities supporting Russia's military efforts in Ukraine. Learn about the latest developments in Brazil, where a fire at an agricultural export terminal disrupts operations, impacting soybean, soymeal, and wheat shipments.
Meanwhile, in Nebraska, a rural county's denial of a permit stands in the way of a proposed CO2 pipeline project, highlighting local resistance to large-scale infrastructure projects.
In the cattle market, Friday's Cattle on Feed report is viewed as neutral to slightly bearish, with cattle on feed and marketings in line with expectations, but placements higher than anticipated.
Stay informed on these critical developments and their implications for agricultural markets, geopolitics, and infrastructure projects. 🌍🌾

Will the Bleeding Ever Stop?? (Corn and Soybean Prices) Feb 23, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Attention traders and farmers! Corn and soybean futures plummet to new lows, with March contracts hitting multi-year bottoms. Explore the implications of these price levels amidst March basis contract deadlines, potentially forcing sales at historic lows. Get insights into market dynamics and large money managers' positions. 📉💰
US ethanol production sees a modest increase, with weekly output up 7% from last year. Dive into the latest ethanol market trends and their impact on energy markets and agriculture. 🌽⛽
Discover how American consumers are grappling with record-high food spending, driven by rising grocery and restaurant prices. Explore the factors contributing to this trend and its implications for the economy. 🍔💳
In other news, the Biden administration greenlights expanded E15 sales, aiming to balance farmer interests and climate goals. Delve into the implications of this decision for energy markets and political dynamics in key Corn Belt states. 🌽🚗
Meanwhile, in the tech sector, the AI craze sends the stock market soaring, fueled by Nvidia's stellar quarterly results. Explore the market reaction and the implications of Nvidia's performance for the broader technology sector. 📈💻
Stay informed on these developments and more, as we navigate the ever-changing landscape of agricultural markets, energy policies, consumer trends, and technology advancements! 🌍🌱

Will Farmers Be FORCED to Sell Corn at Multi-Year Lows?? Feb 22, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro + Basis Contract Mess
3:33 Brazil Crop Tour
6:01 Argentina Estimates Cut
7:07 Ukraine IMF Aid
8:15 Fed Minutes
9:33 Cattle and Outside Markets
Attention farmers! It's decision time for March basis contracts as the deadline approaches. Find out how farmers are navigating pricing options amid multi-year low price levels and the impact of rolling contracts forward. Stay informed on market dynamics and pricing strategies. 📉💰
Get the latest on South American crops as Agroconsult and Argentina's Rosario grain exchange revise estimates. Learn how hot and dry weather is affecting soybean and corn production in Brazil and Argentina, shaping global supply dynamics. 🇧🇷🇦🇷
In other news, Ukraine secures IMF funding amidst ongoing conflict with Russia. Discover the implications of this financial aid for Ukraine's economy and geopolitical landscape. 💵🌐
Meanwhile, insights from the Federal Reserve's January meeting reveal cautious optimism about rate cuts amid concerns of inflation resurgence. Stay updated on monetary policy developments and their impact on the economy. 🏦💡
Stay tuned for more updates on agricultural markets, global geopolitics, and economic trends shaping the world around us! 🌍📈

Wall Street to Buy MORE Farm Land Feb 21, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Discover why investment funds are pouring billions into US farmland and how this trend is reshaping rural communities. Meanwhile, get the latest insights on Brazil's soybean harvest progress and its implications for global markets. 🌍📈
Learn about the White House's anticipated approval of E15 sales expansion and its potential impact on the renewable fuels industry. Stay ahead of the curve with updates on key agricultural policies and developments. 🌽🛢️
In other news, US soybean shipments declined last week while corn shipments saw a modest increase. Dive into the latest export data and its significance for farmers and traders. 📉📦
Additionally, stay informed about the US's warning to allies regarding Russia's potential deployment of a nuclear space weapon. Explore the geopolitical implications of this alarming development. 🚀☢️
Stay tuned for more updates on critical issues shaping the agricultural landscape and global economy! 💡💼

White House Ethanol Rumors: Bad for Farmers?? Feb 20, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 13k Subscribers!
0:55 White House Ethanol Rumors
3:26 HUGE Fund Short
5:41 Big Brazil Inventories
7:17 EV Setback
8:18 Wholesale Inflation Hotter
10:18 Cattle and Outside Markets
Stay ahead of the curve with the latest updates impacting agricultural and energy markets! 🌱 Discover how the White House's impending changes to ethanol policy could reshape the industry landscape, potentially impacting ethanol producers and climate-conscious farming practices. Meanwhile, Brazilian grain inventories soar, adding pressure to global grain prices amidst bumper crops and reduced sales. Get insights into Biden's re-election strategy and the potential delay in EV sales mandates, impacting automakers and consumer demand for electric vehicles. 📈🌎
Explore the implications of the January Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which surpassed expectations, signaling ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. As market dynamics evolve, stay informed to make informed decisions and navigate the changing landscape. Don't miss out on crucial insights that could shape your investment strategies and business decisions! 💡💼

USDA Projects Most Bearish Corn Situation Since 2006 Feb 16, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Get the latest insights from the USDA's Ag Outlook Forum! 🌍 Discover how the newly released crop supply and demand projections confirm a bearish outlook for US corn and soybeans, setting the tone for market dynamics ahead. Explore the implications of NOPA's January crush data, soybean export sales, and the EPA's decision on dicamba herbicides. 📉🌱
Learn about the challenges facing farmers as drought conditions persist across key agricultural regions and how Deere & Co.'s forecast reflects the impact of declining farmer income. Get comprehensive coverage of these crucial developments shaping the agricultural landscape. 📊🌧️
Stay informed with the latest updates on agricultural markets, policy changes, and industry forecasts. Don't miss out on valuable insights that could impact your agricultural investments and decisions! 🔍💡

USDA's Guessing Game Feb 15, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 USDA Guessing Game
2:15 Ethanol Production Improves
4:52 Argentina Update
6:27 CF Industries Profits Decline
7:50 Black Sea Drone Strike
8:48 National Security Threat
Catch the latest updates in the agricultural world! 🌍 Join us as we delve into the USDA's Ag Outlook Forum estimates, released this morning, shedding light on the projected 2024 US corn and soybean acreage and yields. Get insights into traders' expectations and how they could shape market dynamics moving forward! 📊
Learn about the recent uptick in US ethanol production and its implications on the energy sector. Discover how Argentina's crops are benefiting from much-needed rainfall, potentially impacting global supply and prices. 🌧️
Find out why profits have tumbled for CF Industries Holdings, the world's largest corn fertilizer producer, and how it relates to broader agricultural trends. Explore the latest developments in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, including Ukraine's destruction of a Russian warship and concerns over Russian military capabilities. 🚢💥
Stay informed about critical issues affecting agriculture and international relations. Don't miss out on these essential updates! 🔍💡

183bpa Corn Yield? USDA to Release Bearish Projections Feb 14, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Get ready for this week's top agricultural and economic highlights! 🌟 Join us as we dive into the latest USDA crop supply and demand projections, set to be unveiled at the Ag Outlook Forum in Virginia. 🌱 Discover what these projections mean for the upcoming crop year, including acreage, yield, and demand forecasts for corn and soybeans. Don't miss out on this crucial insight into the 2024/25 US balance sheet! 📈
Learn about the shifting landscape of American agriculture, with farm sizes increasing and farm numbers declining. Explore the latest trends from the Census of Agriculture, including the rise of solar-powered and wind turbine-equipped farms. 🌞💨
Stay tuned for the release of January crush data by NOPA, providing key insights into soybean processing activity and soybean oil stocks. Find out how these numbers may impact soybean prices and market sentiment! 🌱🛢️
Discover the implications of the Senate's approval of a massive foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, and the challenges it faces in the House of Representatives. 🌍 And get up to speed on the latest inflation data, with January's CPI report showing higher-than-expected increases, shaking up the stock market and Treasury yields. 💰📉
Join us as we unpack these critical updates and their potential impacts on agricultural markets and the broader economy. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more valuable insights into the world of agriculture and finance! 🚜💡

Bigger Brazil Corn Crop?? + La Niña Return?? Feb 13, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
In this exciting update, we delve into the latest agricultural and economic developments shaping markets worldwide! 🌍📈
Discover how Brazil's second corn crop forecast has surged by 5.7%, reaching 91.2 million tons, fueled by expanded planting and favorable weather conditions. 🌽 Learn about the implications of the El Niño weather pattern potentially transitioning to La Niña, and how it could impact crop yields and weather patterns in the US. ☀️⛈️
Explore the latest trends in US soybean shipments, as well as corn and wheat exports, amid shifting market dynamics. 🚢 And get insights into the cryptocurrency world as Bitcoin spikes to $50,000, driven by increased accessibility and the SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETFs. 💹
But that's not all! Stay updated on the S&P 500's recent performance, including Monday's slight decline following record highs, and anticipate the release of today's CPI report, expected to reveal the lowest inflation rate in three years. 💼📉
Join us as we navigate through the latest market movements and economic indicators, providing valuable insights for traders, investors, and enthusiasts alike! 📊💡
Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more updates on agriculture, economics, and finance! Let's stay ahead of the curve together. 🌟🌱

Soybean Losing Steak: EIGHT Straight Weeks Feb 12, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro + Soybean Losing Streak
3:26 "Extreme" Fund Short
6:00 Brazil Estimates Reduced Again
7:36 Black Sea Drone Attack
8:52 CPI Revised Lower
In this video, we delve into the latest developments in the soybean market and their impact on global agriculture. 🌎
Discover why the soybean market is experiencing its longest losing streak since 2006, as spot futures hit their lowest close since November 2021. 📉 Explore the factors behind this decline, including record-high global stockpiles and sluggish US exports. Learn how Brazilian soybeans trading at a significant discount to US prices are further driving prices down. 🇧🇷
We also analyze the latest Commitment of Traders data, uncovering fund traders' historically large net short positions across the grain complex. 📊 Plus, find out how two agribusiness firms' reductions in Brazil's soybean crop forecast are shaping market sentiment. 🌱
But that's not all! Stay informed about recent geopolitical tensions, such as Russia repelling a Ukrainian drone strike in the Black Sea, impacting oil and grain exports. 🛳️ And get insights into the latest inflation data revisions and their implications for future Fed decisions. 💰
Whether you're a farmer, trader, or enthusiast, this video provides valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of the soybean market and its broader implications for global agriculture and the economy. 🌾💡
Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more updates on agricultural markets and trends! Let's navigate the world of soybeans together. 🚜✨

USDA Adds Insult to Injury (Corn and Soybean Prices) Feb 09, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro and USDA
3:00 CONAB vs. USDA
6:59 Export Sales
8:48 Corn Flash Sale
10:04 Brazil Farm Bankruptcy
11:15 The US is Broke
In this video, we break down yesterday's USDA report and its impact on the agricultural market. 📊
Discover why the government's reduction in US soybean export projections led to a larger carryout forecast, and learn about the marginal cuts in demand projections for US corn and wheat. 🌾 Plus, explore the implications of Brazil's more aggressive production cuts and how they're affecting global crop forecasts. 🇧🇷
We'll also delve into the latest export sales figures for US soybeans, corn, and wheat, highlighting key trends and market insights. 📉 And don't miss the flash sale of corn to Colombia and its significance in the current marketing year. 🌎
But that's not all! Dive into the concerning rise in Brazilian farm bankruptcies and its potential impact on grain contracts and export programs. 🚜 And stay updated on the progress of the foreign aid package for Ukraine and Israel, navigating its journey through the Senate amidst increasing resistance. 💼
Whether you're a farmer, trader, or simply interested in global agricultural dynamics, this video offers valuable insights and analysis you won't want to miss! Hit play now to stay informed and empowered in today's ever-changing agricultural landscape. 🚜💡
Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more updates on the latest developments in agriculture! Let's cultivate knowledge and growth together. 🌱✨

USDA: Farm Incomes to See DRASTIC Decline Feb 08, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Farm Incomes to Decline Drastically
3:48 USDA Preview
6:36 US/Mexico Corn Dispute
8:04 Ethanol Production Rebounds
9:29 Bunge Earnings
10:32 Dicamba Ruling
In this video, we uncover the startling projections for US farmer income, revealing a 26% decline compared to the previous year. Discover the factors behind this downturn, from market challenges and rising production costs to evolving government support policies. 📉
But it's not all doom and gloom! We also dive into the latest developments and disputes shaping the agricultural landscape. From the US-Mexico GMO corn dispute nearing resolution to the implications of a US court ruling on dicamba herbicides, there's no shortage of intriguing insights to uncover. 💡
Plus, we examine the resilience of the ethanol industry amidst market volatility and delve into Bunge's forecast for slower growth in 2024. 📈
Whether you're a seasoned farmer, agribusiness professional, or simply curious about the future of farming, this video offers valuable insights and perspectives you won't want to miss! Hit play now to stay informed and inspired as we navigate the ever-changing terrain of agriculture together. 🌾✨
Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more engaging content on the latest developments in agriculture! Let's cultivate knowledge and growth, one video at a time. 🚜🌟

Ethanol and Big Oil Fight EV Push Feb 07, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Oil and farm groups in the US are teaming up to oppose the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), which could reduce oil and ethanol demand. They're pushing for year-round sales of E15, a blend of gasoline with 15% ethanol, to promote ethanol usage. Meanwhile, US corn farmers are urging the White House to recognize the benefits of biofuels like ethanol in reducing vehicle emissions. 🌽🛢️🚗
In global news, Chinese officials are concerned about US tariffs and sanctions, but meetings with US Treasury officials were constructive. Russian President Putin is set to visit Turkey, his first trip to a NATO country since the Ukraine invasion. 🇨🇳🇷🇺
In the EU, plans to reduce pesticide use were withdrawn due to farmer protests, but the European Commission proposed cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040. 🇪🇺🌱

Trump CONFIRMS Tariff Plans: Soybean Prices at Risk?? Feb 06, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro
1:01 Tariff Plans
4:58 Brazil and Argentina Update
8:43 Shipment Update
9:39 Flash Sale
10:25 Tyson Earnings and Cattle
Former President Trump has hinted at imposing substantial tariffs on Chinese goods if he is reelected, specifically mentioning tariffs of 60% or more during a recent Fox News interview. Trump believes that such tariffs are necessary because he perceives that China has taken advantage of the United States. During his previous term, Trump's administration implemented tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports, amounting to a significant tax increase. These tariffs led to retaliatory measures from China, affecting US exports such as poultry, wheat, and soybeans. It's important to note that discussions around potential policy changes can impact markets, and we aim to provide objective information without taking a political stance. 🇺🇸🇨🇳🛒📈
Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean harvest continues to progress, with 16% of the crop harvested as reported by AgRural. The group projects this season's soybean crop to reach 150.1 million tons. Additionally, 27% of Brazil's second corn crop in the south-central region has been planted, marking a notably swift planting pace, according to AgRural.
US soybean shipments showed improvement last week, with 1.4 million metric tons (52 million bushels) inspected for export during the week ending February 1. This figure exceeded expectations and marked a 56% increase compared to the previous week. However, it was still down by 25% compared to the same week last year. Conversely, corn shipments fell below pre-report estimates, declining by 32% compared to the prior week at 624,295 metric tons (25 million bushels). Wheat shipments were soft, down 6.2% compared to the previous week and 55% lower than the same week last year, totaling 266,269 metric tons (10 million bushels).
Tyson Foods' stock surged by 2% on Monday following the company's fiscal first-quarter results, which exceeded profit projections. Tyson reported sales of $13.32 billion, up from $13.26 billion the previous year. Beef sales rose to $5 billion, although the beef sector faced an adjusted operating loss of $117 million, primarily attributed to the rapid deterioration of cattle futures during the quarter. Tyson's CEO also noted a lack of significant heifer retention for rebuilding the US cattle herd. 🐔🥩📊📈

LIVE from Nashville!!! Is There Any Hope for the Grain Markets?? Feb 05, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095
Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG
Google https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS83OTMwMjIucnNz
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
CME soybean futures have almost entirely reversed the gains associated with last Tuesday's upside reversal. The nearby Mar24 contract experienced a loss of nearly 15 cents on Friday, following a 19-cent decline on Thursday. This trend underscores the ongoing competitiveness challenges faced by US soybeans in global markets. Reports have indicated that some US buyers have resorted to importing soybeans from Brazil due to the price disparity. The data suggests that US soybeans are currently overpriced compared to their Brazilian counterparts, leading to such market dynamics. 🌱📉🇧🇷🌽
China's persistently weak pork demand reflects underlying economic issues. Despite China's preparations for the Lunar New Year, a period associated with increased pork consumption, demand remains subdued. Pork prices have fallen by approximately 20% compared to a year ago. However, declining wages are restraining consumer spending, exacerbating deflationary pressures in China. In the past year, China experienced its highest pork production levels in nine years, while pork consumption declined by nearly 2%. The Chinese government intervened by purchasing pork three times in 2023 for its strategic reserves to support prices. 🇨🇳🥩📉
Fund traders continue to maintain a historically large net short position across the grain complex, according to the latest Commitment of Traders data released by the CFTC. During the week ending January 30, "the funds" were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of corn, resulting in a net short position of 280,000 contracts, the largest since mid-2020. Additionally, funds were net sellers of 5,000 contracts of soybeans, leading to a net short position of 102,000 contracts, the largest since early 2020. In contrast, funds were net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat during the same week. 🌾📊📉
Argentina is grappling with a heat wave that poses a threat to its crops. A dry and scorching heat wave in Argentina has raised concerns about potential damage to soybean and corn crops. Soil and crop conditions have deteriorated significantly as temperatures soared to 104°F (40°C). According to the Rosario grain exchange, the proportion of soybeans classified as being in very good to excellent condition has dropped from 90% to 65%. However, approximately 90% of soybeans are still considered to be in normal to excellent condition despite the challenging weather. The forecast indicates that hot and dry weather will persist in the coming days. ☀️🌾🇦🇷🌽
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report on Thursday. While the February report is typically not associated with significant market volatility, some changes are expected. Traders anticipate the USDA to lower its projections for Brazil's crops while increasing estimates for Argentina. On the US balance sheets, few substantial changes are expected. Here's a look at the pre-report estimates. 📊🌽📈
The S&P 500 achieved a new record high on Friday, driven by impressive quarterly gains from technology companies and a better-than-expected January jobs report. The index rose by 1.1% to close at 4,958.6, marking a fresh record. Notably, the US economy added 353,000 jobs in January, well above the pre-report estimate of 185,000. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.4%, the Dow Jones increased by 1.4%, and the Nasdaq added 1.1%. 📈💼🎉

Why is the US Importing Soybeans?? Feb 02, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
American buyers are capitalizing on the affordability of Brazilian soybeans by making significant purchases. Perdue Farms, a major American chicken producer, has acquired three shipments of Brazilian oilseed. These imports, if delivered, will mark the first time in years that American buyers have imported Brazilian soybeans during the winter months. Typically, the United States relies on domestic purchases during this period, given the ample inventories available after harvest. The decision to import Brazilian soybeans suggests that Brazil's crop is in better condition than expected. Moreover, Brazilian soybeans are currently priced at a discount of over $1 per bushel compared to Chicago futures. 🌱🚢🇧🇷🌽
Corteva, a leading agricultural company, experienced a record-breaking surge in its shares on Thursday. The stock saw an astonishing 27% increase before slightly retreating but still closing the day with an 8.6% gain at $54.06 per share. This remarkable rise was attributed to Corteva's optimism that continued demand from farmers will drive profitability over the next two years. The company anticipates increased demand for crops and biofuels, along with growth in the crop protection sector, contributing to higher profits. Corteva's stock had declined by nearly 20% in the previous year due to delayed farmer purchases and competition for generic pesticides in Brazil. Notably, Corteva, a publicly traded company since 2019, includes the well-known Pioneer seed brand as a significant part of its business. 🌾📈💼
In Brazil, estimates for this year's soybean crop continue to decline. According to StoneX, the Brazilian soybean crop for this season is expected to reach 150.4 million tons. This estimate reflects a 1.6% decrease compared to the firm's projection in January and a 4.8% reduction from last year's record crop. The downgrading of estimates is primarily attributed to unfavorable growing conditions. Additionally, the forecast for Brazilian soybean exports has been revised down to 93 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 95 million tons. StoneX maintains its estimate of total corn production at 124.5 million tons, consistent with the previous month's projection. 🌱🇧🇷📉
However, US soybean export sales faced a significant decline last week. Net soybean sales, amounting to 164,500 metric tons (equivalent to 6 million bushels), fell below pre-report estimates and marked a marketing-year low. This represented a sharp drop of 71% compared to the previous week and a 64% decrease from the prior four-week average. China was the largest buyer of soybeans during this period. In contrast, net corn sales reached 1.2 million metric tons (approximately 48 million bushels), showing a 26% increase from the previous week and a 58% surge from the prior four-week average, with Japan emerging as the largest buyer. Net wheat sales, at 322,500 metric tons (about 12 million bushels), were down 29% compared to the previous week and 9% from the prior four-week average. The Philippines accounted for the largest wheat purchase of the week. 🌽🌾🚢

Argentina HEAT WAVE + Ethanol Production Rebound Feb 01, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
A heat wave is on the horizon for Argentina, with potential implications for crop forecasts. The Buenos Aires grain exchange has issued a forecast for a heat wave in most of Argentina's farming regions over the next week. While above-normal temperatures are expected, there is also anticipation of rainfall in northern, western, and southern Argentina. Unfortunately, the central and southern regions are expected to remain dry. This weather pattern, if it persists, could lead to downward revisions in Argentina's corn and soybean crop estimates in the coming weeks. 🌡️🌾🌞
Corn and soybean futures showed resilience on Wednesday, maintaining their gains from Tuesday's upside reversal. Despite starting the day with losses, nearby corn and soybean contracts managed to end the day with modest gains. Technicians may view these higher closes as confirmation of Tuesday's reversal pattern. While South American weather remains a topic of discussion, there doesn't appear to be a singular fundamental catalyst for the two-day bounce in these markets. 🌽📈🌱
In the energy sector, US ethanol production increased last week. Weekly output reached 991,000 barrels, marking a 21% increase from the previous week. However, it was down 2.1% compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 24.3 million barrels, a 6% decrease from the previous week and a 3.2% decrease from the same week last year. Notably, the weekly decline in ethanol stocks, amounting to 1.5 million barrels, is the second-largest on record. Implied gasoline demand saw a 3.4% increase compared to the previous week and remained marginally higher than the same week last year, continuing the trend of elevated gasoline demand. Over the past four weeks, implied US gasoline demand has been up by an average of 4.3% compared to the same period last year. 🌾🚗📈
On the livestock front, the total US cattle inventory has dropped to its lowest level in seven decades. As of January 1, the US had 87.2 million head of all cattle and calves, reflecting a 2% decline from the previous year. This is the smallest cattle inventory since 1951, and it marks the fifth consecutive year of decline. Key factors contributing to this decline include drought conditions and elevated input costs, which have discouraged producers from rebuilding the cattle herd. The beef cowherd, calf crop, and beef replacement heifers also experienced reductions. 🐮📉💧
In financial news, the Fed has indicated that rate cuts in March are unlikely. After announcing no changes to interest rates during its January meeting, the Fed signaled that rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon for March. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for more data to confirm the downward trend in inflation before considering rate cuts. 💹🏦💲
The stock market experienced its third consecutive month of gains in January, although it dipped on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's announcement. Despite the day's losses, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all ended January positively. For the month, the S&P 500 gained 1.6%, the Dow increased 1.2%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1%. 📈📊💰

Why Did Grain Prices REVERSE On Tuesday?? Jan 31, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Exciting developments in the grain and oilseed futures market! 🌾 On Tuesday, these commodities showed upside reversal patterns, with the Mar24 corn contract rebounding from a life-of-contract low to close higher. Similarly, the Mar24 soybean contract, after trading at its lowest level since June 2023, experienced a 24 cent gain for the session. Wheat futures also overcame a weak start to close significantly higher. While factors like Argentina's drier forecast and disappointing early soybean yields in Brazil played a role, there doesn't seem to be a single catalyst driving this broad-based rally. 📈🌽🌱
Meanwhile, China's soybean oil and meal prices have faced downward pressure due to reduced demand. Soybean oil prices on China's Dalian Commodities Exchange have declined for three consecutive sessions, while increased supply from South America has led to lower soymeal prices. The slowdown in Chinese soybean demand is partly attributed to stockpiling ending ahead of the Spring Festival, coupled with decreased demand for animal feed. Experts anticipate that Chinese soybean demand could remain sluggish both in the short and long term. Bearish market sentiment is also influenced by upward revisions in Argentina's soybean estimates. 🇨🇳🌱📉
On the global stage, strong economic data and Middle East uncertainty have contributed to a rise in oil prices. WTI crude prices gained 1.4%, closing at $77.82 per barrel on Tuesday. This increase can be attributed to the International Monetary Fund's upward revision of its global economic growth forecast to 3.1% for the year, driven by stimulus measures in China and robust US growth. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iranian drone attack in Jordan, have also raised concerns about potential disruptions in the oil market, further pushing prices higher. 🛢️🌍💰
As for interest rates, expectations regarding the timing of cuts remain mixed. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain its benchmark rate during its January meeting and provide insights into the timing of rate cuts. While most economists expect cuts to start in May or June, the market suggests a 46% probability of a rate cut in March. The Fed's decision will be influenced by economic strength, inflation levels, and the risk of inadvertently causing a recession by keeping rates high for an extended period. 🏦💱📉
Lastly, US economic reports show interesting trends. Job openings in the US reached their highest level in three months in December, with 9 million openings. However, the number of quits decreased to 3.4 million, the lowest in nearly three years. This implies that for every unemployed individual, there are 1.4 job openings, a substantial decline from the peak of 2 to 1 in March 2022. Additionally, US consumer confidence in January reached its highest point since the end of 2021, signaling positive sentiment among consumers. 👨‍💼📊🇺🇸

World's Top Ethanol Producer Joins Pipeline Project Jan 30, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Exciting news in the world of ethanol! 🌽 Poet LLC, the world's top ethanol producer, is teaming up with Summit Carbon Solutions to take part in the largest carbon pipeline project in the US. This collaboration aims to reduce biofuel emissions and tap into the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) market. Summit Carbon Solutions will transport carbon dioxide from 17 Poet facilities, as well as 51 ethanol plants, through a proposed pipeline that traverses the Corn Belt. Although construction of the pipeline has faced challenges, this partnership highlights the commitment to sustainability in the biofuel industry. 🛢️🌍
In a significant development, a Hong Kong court has ordered China Evergrande Group to liquidate. This decision is expected to further shake up China's already unstable real estate industry, which has witnessed multiple developer failures over the past few years. Factors like declining property values and banks withholding funds have contributed to the sector's downturn, which used to account for around 25% of China's GDP. Economists anticipate that the situation could worsen as the industry faces continued challenges. 🇨🇳🏢💥
Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean harvest is making steady progress. According to AgRural, 11% of Brazil's soybean crop has been harvested, ahead of last year's pace. Additionally, 11% of Brazil's second corn crop has been planted, showing a positive trend compared to the previous year. While AgRural estimates this year's Brazilian soybean harvest at 148.55 million tons, agricultural consulting firm Datagro suggests that the crop may fall short of earlier projections. 🌱🚜🇧🇷
Over in Russia, wheat prices have been affected by ample supplies in the Black Sea region. Russian wheat exports are predicted to reach 3.6 million tons this month, experiencing a slight decrease from January 2023. However, it's expected that exports will bounce back in the near future. Despite the surplus, Russia has made significant wheat purchases this year. Sovecon, a research firm, has also forecasted a modest increase in Russia's wheat crop this season. 🌾🇷🇺
On the US front, soybean shipments had a challenging week. USDA data revealed that soybean inspections for export during the week ending January 25 were down by 25% compared to the previous week and a significant 54% drop from the same week last year. In contrast, corn shipments increased by 21% from the prior week. Wheat shipments, however, lagged behind, showing a 16% decline from the previous week and a 41% decrease from the same week last year. 🚢🌾🇺🇸

Trade War 2.0 - Are Grain Traders Already Reacting?? Jan 29, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Trade tensions could potentially escalate if Donald Trump is reelected as president. 😬 Some Americans are considering voting for Trump in the upcoming election due to his economic performance during his first term, which included passing a significant tax overhaul. However, in his second term, there may not be a new tax plan in the works. Instead, Trump has indicated a willingness to expand the trade war initiated during his first term. If reelected, he has suggested imposing a 10% tariff on all imports, a move that could lead to retaliatory measures from other countries. Reports have even suggested that Trump has privately discussed imposing federal tariffs on Chinese imports at rates of 40% or more. It's important to note that this information is related to the agricultural markets and does not endorse any political candidate. 🌐
In the grain markets, fund traders are maintaining historically large net short positions across the complex. According to the latest Commitment of Traders data from the CFTC, funds were net sellers of 34,000 contracts of corn, resulting in a net short position of 275,000 contracts, the largest since mid-2020. For soybeans, funds were net sellers of 18,000 contracts, resulting in a net short position of 96,000 contracts, the largest since early 2020. However, funds were net buyers of 7,000 contracts of SRW wheat. 💰🌽🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing well, with 9% of this year's crop already harvested. This progress is ahead of last year when only 4.4% of the crop had been harvested at this time. Safras and Mercado estimate this season's Brazilian soybean crop at 151.4 million tons. The weather forecast in Brazil appears mostly favorable, while Argentina is expected to return to a wetter pattern later in the week. 🌦️🚜
The situation in the Red Sea continues to affect grain shipments, with more vessels opting to avoid the region due to ongoing Houthi attacks. Since the beginning of January, 3.9 million tons of grain have been diverted from the Red Sea, causing disruptions to the usual grain transit through the Suez Canal. Many of the diverted ships are reportedly carrying US grain. In January, it's projected that 2.4 million tons of grain will pass through the Suez Canal, down significantly from previous months. 🚢🌊
Finally, inflation appears to be easing, with the personal consumption expenditures price index showing a 0.2% monthly increase and a 2.9% year-over-year increase in December. Consumer spending also rose by 0.7% during the same month, exceeding expectations. However, personal savings decreased from 4.1% in November to 3.7% in December. The markets are currently pricing in a 53% chance of the Federal Reserve beginning to cut interest rates in March. 💹💰

Estimates have INCREASED for Argentina’s Corn and Soybean Crops Jan 26, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Argentina's soybean and corn crop estimates get a boost! 🌾📈 The Buenos Aires grain exchange increased its forecast, projecting a soybean crop of 52.5 million tons (up from 52 million) and a corn crop of 56.5 million tons (up from 55 million). Improved rainfall contributed to the increases, but future rains are crucial for sustaining these projections.

Oil prices surge to a two-month high! 🛢️⬆️ WTI crude rose 3% to $77.36 per barrel, fueled by factors such as a significant drop in US crude inventories, a drone attack on a Russian oil refinery, and China's stimulus measures expected to boost energy consumption and aid economic recovery.

US corn export sales dip, while soybean and wheat sales show mixed trends. 🌽🌾 Net corn sales of 954,800mt were -24% from the previous week, but soybean and wheat sales had varied performance. The drought monitor data reveals varying conditions across US regions, with concerns in areas like Corn and Soybean belts.

The US economy experiences rapid growth in Q4 2023! 📈 GDP increased at a 3.3% annualized rate, surpassing expectations. Consumer spending played a significant role, driving overall growth to 2.5% for the entire year. However, concerns linger about the delayed impacts of the Fed's interest rate hikes in 2024. 📊💸

ADM's Turmoil Grows Deeper Jan 25, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
ADM's nutrition unit aided executives in earning over $70 million, but now faces investigation for accounting practices, despite contributing less than 10% to the company's revenue. Executive bonuses were heavily influenced by the nutrition sector, with stock bonuses tied to its growth between 2020 and 2021. The top seven executives received shares valued at nearly $72 million.

The world's first ethanol-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production facility, Freedom Pines Fuels, opened in Georgia, producing 10 million gallons of SAF and renewable diesel annually. The Biden administration aims to produce 3 billion gallons of SAF annually by 2030. The technology used at the facility will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 70%, providing new economic opportunities for American agricultural producers. 🌱✈️🛢️

Glencore and Viterra filed a lawsuit against Louis Dreyfus, alleging the artificial inflation and manipulation of cotton prices in 2011, causing over $200 million in losses. Cotton prices tripled between July 2010 and March 2011, reaching a record high of $2.20 per pound.

US ethanol production fell by 22% last week, with stocks at 25.8 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand was down 4.8%, and on average over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is slightly lower compared to the same period last year. 📉🛢️🇺🇸

Farmers in France continued protests against government regulations, cheap imports, and rising costs. Demonstrations involved road blockades, fires, and manure spraying on government buildings. Farmers demanded higher prices, citing threats to livelihoods due to falling prices after a period of high inflation. The French government is expected to propose solutions soon. 🚜🔥🇫🇷

China Hog Problems + HOT/DRY Argentina Forecast Jan 24, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
China is taking steps to reduce its hog herd as part of efforts to regulate the industry and stabilize prices. 🐖 The country's agriculture ministry is guiding farmers to sell their hogs, which would lead to a decrease in herd numbers. China's hog herd had expanded rapidly in recent years, resulting in oversupply and declining prices. 📉 Hog slaughter reached a nine-year high at the end of last year as producers tried to address the oversupply issue. 🐷 The reduction in the hog herd is expected to continue over the next one to two months. ⏳
Additionally, China is looking to enhance its food security and reduce reliance on imports by increasing oilseed production, particularly soybeans. 🌱 The plan involves boosting soybean yields by planting more genetically modified (GMO) soybean varieties and reducing the soybean meal ratio in animal feed. 🌾 This move aligns with China's goal to reduce imports and strengthen domestic production of key agricultural commodities. 🌍
In the United States, farmers are making slight adjustments to their planting intentions for the upcoming season. 🌽 According to a survey, corn plantings are expected to decrease by 2% to 92.8 million acres, while soybean acres are projected to increase by 1.6% to 85 million acres. 🚜 This would make it the fifth-largest soybean crop ever planted in the US. Additionally, winter wheat acres are forecasted to increase by 1.5% to 37.3 million acres, while spring wheat acres are anticipated to decline significantly by 19% to 9.1 million acres. 🌾
However, in Brazil, soybean production estimates continue to decline, with projections from various sources indicating lower crop expectations than previously anticipated. 🇧🇷 Private group AgRural's estimate is at 150.1 million tons, while Dr. Michael Cordonnier's estimate remains unchanged at 149 million tons for soybeans. 🌱 These estimates are notably lower than the USDA and Conab's projections, which are higher at 157 million tons and 155 million tons, respectively. 📉
Lastly, severe winter weather in North Dakota has disrupted oil production, causing significant losses in oil output. ❄️ The frigid temperatures have impacted one of the largest natural gas and oil resources in the US, with estimates suggesting the loss of around 700,000 barrels of oil per day. It may take weeks or even months for production to return to normal, and the extreme cold has led to numerous incidents involving leaks or equipment failures. ⛽🌨️

Big Renewable Diesel Plant Approved + ADM's Mess Jan 23, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Last week, California regulators granted approval for the operation of a massive renewable diesel plant by Phillips 66 in Rodeo, CA. This facility is set to become the world's largest renewable fuel production facility with a capacity of 50,000 barrels per day. It represents a significant step in the transition towards renewable energy and lower-carbon solutions. The plant's approval came after facing environmental challenges, and its operation is expected to contribute to reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 50%, as it will no longer process crude oil. This move aligns with the growing focus on sustainable and renewable energy sources. 🌱🛢️🌍
On another note, shares of Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) experienced a sharp decline, falling by 22% on Monday. This significant drop was attributed to ADM's CFO being placed on administrative leave while the company's accounting practices are under investigation. ADM, which has a history of legal issues, is also currently facing a lawsuit related to price manipulation in its ethanol business. These challenges have had a notable impact on the company's stock value. 💼📉💰
Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing ahead of last year's pace, with 6% of the crop harvested as of last week. This is notably higher than the 1.8% harvested at the same time last year. Despite this progress, estimates for Brazil's soybean crop have been adjusted lower, reflecting the impact of weather conditions on the crop. 🌱🇧🇷🚜
In terms of soybean shipments from the US, there was a decline reported last week. This decrease in shipments can be influenced by various factors, including global market dynamics and demand. Additionally, consumer sentiment in the US has been on the rise since November, driven by a strong labor market and expectations of decreasing inflation. However, economists anticipate economic growth to slow down in the coming year due to potential Fed rate hikes and other factors. 🇺🇸📈💼

Fund Traders HAMMER Grain Prices Jan 22, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Fund traders have established historically large net short positions across the grain complex, particularly in corn and soybeans. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data from the CFTC, here's a summary of their positions:
Corn: Fund traders were net sellers of 34,000 contracts of corn during the week ending January 16. This has resulted in a net short position of 272,000 contracts in corn, which is the largest seen since mid-2020.
Soybeans: In the same week, fund traders sold 46,000 contracts of soybeans, leading to a net short position of 79,000 contracts. This is the largest net short position in soybeans since early 2020.
SRW Wheat: Fund traders were also net sellers of 15,000 contracts of SRW wheat during the week.
These significant net short positions suggest that fund traders are taking bearish positions, anticipating lower prices in the grain complex. This could be influenced by various factors, including market sentiment, supply and demand dynamics, and external factors such as weather conditions. It's important to keep an eye on how these positions evolve, as they can impact price movements in the grain markets. 🌾📊📉
Additionally, it's worth noting that the Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, with 5.1% of the crop harvested so far. Safras is projecting a slightly lower soybean crop for Brazil compared to some other estimates. On the trade front, there have been significant corn export sales and a flash sale of soybeans to China reported by USDA. These developments are noteworthy for the grain markets. 🌽🌱🚢
In the cattle market, the Cattle on Feed report was viewed as friendly, with marketings performing well and placements lower. This had a positive impact on the cattle market. Meanwhile, the overall stock market experienced a rally, with technology stocks leading the way to new highs. 🐄📈💹

REVERSAL: Grains Rally from Fresh Lows- Does it Matter?? Jan 19, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Futures Rebound After Hitting Lows: 📉🌾 Corn, soybean, and HRW wheat futures hit fresh life-of-contract lows during a recent trading session but managed to close higher. While these were not considered "key" reversals, the fact that they closed higher is seen as a positive sign.
Declining Brazilian Crop Estimates: 🇧🇷🌱 Agroconsult has launched its Brazilian soybean crop tour, and its initial estimate for the crop stands at 153.8 million tons, down from its December estimate of 158.8 million tons. This reduction is attributed to adverse weather conditions in various Brazilian states, including hot and dry weather in Mato Grosso and excessive rainfall in the southern regions. Additionally, Brazilian farmers had to replant soybean acres due to extreme weather, with an estimated 7.2 million acres replanted, accounting for 6.4% of Brazil's total soybean acres.
Black Sea Grain Deal Negotiations: 🌾🌍 Negotiations are underway to potentially revive the Black Sea grain deal, with a focus on determining a structure for international partners to support Ukraine. The Black Sea grain deal expired in July 2023 when Russia withdrew from the agreement. Ukraine subsequently established an alternative shipping corridor along its western Black Sea coast, facilitating the export of 16.5 million tons of cargo, primarily food products.
Reduction in Panama Canal Traffic: 🚢🌊 Authorities in Panama have announced a 36% reduction in ship crossings through the Panama Canal until the end of April. This reduction is attributed to concerns about the water levels in the canal, which are critical for both its operations and human consumption. It is expected to cost Panama between $500 million and $700 million this year, and more than half of the country's population relies on the same lakes that fill the canal.
US Ethanol Production Decline: 🇺🇸🌽 US ethanol production saw a marginal decline last week, with weekly output at 1.5 million barrels. However, this figure represents a 12% increase compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 25.7 million barrels, up 8% from the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand remained strong, with a 9.4% increase compared to the same week last year.
Drought Monitor Data: 🌧️🌡️ The USDA released its weekly drought monitor data, showing significant improvement in drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt. Precipitation in these areas was more than 200% of the weekly average, leading to notable drought improvement in regions including southeast Iowa, southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, Indiana, western Ohio, and Kentucky. However, the High Plains experienced winter storms and cold temperatures, resulting in little to no change in drought conditions.
These developments underscore the dynamics of commodity futures, Brazilian crop challenges, international negotiations, water resource concerns, ethanol production, and drought conditions in key agricultural regions. 📈🌎🚢

China China China - DEMAND PROBLEMS Jan 18, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
China's Soybean Demand Decline: 🇨🇳🌱 China's soybean imports are expected to decline by 20% in the first quarter of this year, totaling about 18.5 million tons. This reduction in demand is primarily driven by a decrease in hog numbers due to factors such as poor prices, high input costs, and outbreaks of African swine fever. At least half of these imports are expected to come from the United States. China imported a record 99.4 million metric tons of soybeans in 2023, marking an 11% increase from the previous year. The decrease in soybean demand has been influenced by increased soybean inventories.
China's Population Decline: 🇨🇳👶 China's population is on a downward trend, with around 9 million births recorded last year, which is over half a million fewer than the previous year. The total population in China decreased by 2.08 million in 2023, more than double the decline seen in 2022. Various measures, including matchmaking and cash incentives, have been employed by local governments to encourage more births, but economic uncertainty has been a significant factor contributing to the declining birth rate. In 2023, China's GDP increased by 5.2%, slightly slower than the pre-pandemic levels of over 6%.
Challenges in China's Economy: 📉🇨🇳 China's economy faced challenges in the fourth quarter of 2023, with GDP growth at 5.2%, slightly below expectations of 5.3%. For the full year, GDP increased by 5.2%, a rise from 3% in 2022 but still relatively low. The property sector saw a significant decline in investment, down by 9.6% in 2023. China's unemployment rate among people aged 16 to 24 improved to 14.9% in December, compared to 21.3% in June, the last reported figures. To maintain economic stability and growth, China may need to consider implementing substantial stimulus measures, as GDP growth is forecasted to slow to 4.6% this year.
Challenges in Mato Grosso's Soybean Yields: 🌱🇧🇷 Mato Grosso, a key soybean-producing region in Brazil, is facing challenges in its soybean yields, which are projected to be 15% below the 15-year historical trend. This decline in yields is significant and has not been seen since 2016 when yields fell 13% below trend. As a result, EarthDaily Agro forecasts Brazil's soybean crop at 149.2 million tons, notably lower than projections from Conab (155 million tons) and the USDA (157 million tons).
Strong US Retail Sales: 🛍️📊 US retail sales showed strength in December, growing by 0.6%, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.4% increase. This growth follows a 0.3% gain in November. Excluding auto and gas sales, retail sales increased by 4.9% over the course of 2023. The robust performance of retail sales reflects a healthy economy, and experts believe that the economy is strong enough that a reduction in interest rates is not necessary to sustain it.
These developments highlight various economic and agricultural dynamics, from shifts in demand for soybeans in China to demographic trends and economic challenges in both China and Brazil, as well as the resilience of the US retail sector. 🌍📈🌽

Record Soy Crush (AGAIN!!) Can the Market Rebound?? Jan 17, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Record Soybean Crush in December: 🌱🏭 The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that its members processed 195.328 million bushels of soybeans in December, marking the largest soybean crush for any month on record. This December soybean crush was up 3.3% compared to November and 10% higher than the same month in the previous year. End-of-month soybean oil stocks also increased, reaching 1.360 billion pounds, the highest since September. While stocks rose by 12.1% compared to November, they were down 24% compared to December 2022.
Increased Soybean Shipments: 🚢🌱 US soybean shipments saw an increase last week, with 1.3 million metric tons (46 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ending January 11. This represents a 22% increase compared to the previous week but a 42% decrease compared to the same week last year. Corn shipments, on the other hand, declined by 20% compared to the prior week, totaling 875,621 metric tons (34 million bushels), while wheat shipments were reported at 234,205 metric tons (9 million bushels), down 53% from the previous week and 28% lower than the same week last year.
USDA Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico: 🌽🇲🇽 US exporters made a flash sale of corn to Mexico, selling 126,700 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn for delivery during the current marketing year. This marks the second flash sale of corn to Mexico in the past week, totaling 301,700 metric tons (12 million bushels).
Lowered Brazilian Soybean Estimates: 🇧🇷🌱 Aprosoja Brasil, a Brazilian farmer lobbying group, has lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 135 million tons due to hot and dry weather conditions, as well as heavy rains disrupting harvest. This estimate is significantly lower than Conab's projection of 155 million tons and the USDA's estimate of 157 million tons. The adjustment in crop prediction has impacted soybean futures.
Strong Forecasts for Argentina: 🇦🇷🌽🌱 Argentina's soybean and corn crops are expected to yield exceptional results due to ample rainfall. The Rosario grain exchange anticipates that these forecasts will continue to rise. Currently, the exchange projects Argentina's corn crop at 59 million tons, set to be a record-high, and its soybean crop at 52 million tons, the highest since 2019.
Iowa Farmers' Support for Trump: 🗳️🚜 Farmer support in Iowa played a pivotal role in Donald Trump's win in the Republican nomination on Monday. Despite concerns about the potential re-ignition of a trade war with China, farmers in Iowa continue to back Trump. A recent poll indicated that 39% of farmers across the nation support Trump, highlighting the continued loyalty of farmers to the former president, who provided significant financial assistance to farmers during his time in office.
These developments reflect the dynamic nature of the agricultural industry, with factors like processing records, export changes, and political support influencing the market. 🌾📈🌎

Corn and Soybean Prices COLLAPSE Following USDA Data Dump Jan 16, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
US Corn and Soybean Crop Estimates: 🌽🌱 The USDA increased its estimates for the 2023 US corn and soybean crops. The corn production estimate rose to a record 15.342 billion bushels, with a record yield of 177.3 bushels per acre. The soybean crop estimate increased to 4.165 billion bushels, with a national yield of 50.6 bushels per acre. These increases were unexpected and led to sharp declines in grain and oilseed futures. 😲📈
US Winter Wheat Seedings: 🌾❄️ Winter wheat seedings in the US were below expectations, with all winter wheat seedings pegged at 34.4 million acres compared to the average pre-report guess of 35.8 million acres. Hard Red Winter (HRW) seedings were lower than trade expectations at 24.0 million acres, and Soft Red Winter (SRW) seedings were also below expectations at 6.86 million acres. 📉🚜
Money Managers' Positions: 💼💰 Large money managers increased their net short position in the corn market, with the net short position reaching 237,000 contracts, the largest since mid-2020. Funds were also net sellers of 24,000 contracts of soybeans. 📊🌽
Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimates: 🇧🇷🌱 Brazilian soybean crop estimates continue to decline, with AgRural projecting a crop of 150.1 million tons, down from its December projection of 159.1 million tons. The reduction is attributed to high temperatures and insufficient rainfall. ☀️🌧️
Shipping Rates Surge: 🚢💥 Container shipping rates for major global trade routes surged due to unrest in the Red Sea. US and British airstrikes on Yemen in response to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping contributed to the spike in rates. Shipping companies expect rates to remain high for at least the next two months. 🌊📈
Ukraine Peace Plan Meeting: 🇺🇦🕊️ A meeting in Davos focused on Ukraine's peace plan yielded no clear results. Ukraine's 10-point peace blueprint aims for the full withdrawal of Russian troops. However, the meeting ended without a clear path forward or future meetings scheduled. 🤝🗳️
Wholesale Price Declines: 💼💲 Wholesale prices have declined for three consecutive months, with the December Producer Price Index (PPI) falling 0.1% compared to the previous month. This decline is partly attributed to a 12.4% drop in the cost of diesel fuel. While annual PPI increased by 1% in December, lower wholesale prices may lead to expectations of continued downward inflation trends in the coming year. 📉🛢️💱
These developments highlight the dynamic nature of the agricultural and global economic landscape, with multiple factors influencing commodity markets, trade, and geopolitical tensions. 🌍🌾🌐

Report Day + China Stockpiling Corn Jan 12, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Today, the USDA is set to release several important reports at 11:00 AM CST, which include the quarterly Grain Stocks report, the monthly Crop Production/WASDE report, and the Winter Wheat Seedings report. The January report is known to be influential in the market and has previously been associated with trend changes. It includes the "final" 2023 US corn and soybean production numbers, which will be closely watched by traders, along with any updates on South American production estimates. 🌾📊
China is taking steps to increase its corn stockpiles by purchasing corn from northeastern China and other key producing regions. This move is aimed at bolstering its reserves. USDA data has estimated China's 2023 corn crop at 277 million tons, which would be the second-largest on record, coming close to the all-time high of 277.2 million tons in 2022. 🌽🇨🇳
Argentina's corn crop is expected to reach a record size, with projections from the Rosario grain exchange estimating a harvest of 59 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from previous estimates. This boost is attributed to ample rainfall. The exchange has also raised its estimate for Argentina's soybean crop to 52 million tons, up from the earlier forecast of 50 million tons. 🌽🌱🇦🇷
US corn export sales have shown an increase in the past week, with net sales of 487,600 metric tons (19 million bushels). This represents a 33% increase from the previous week. However, soybean sales fell below expectations at 280,400 metric tons (10 million bushels), albeit showing a 39% increase from the previous week. Wheat sales were also below expectations, totaling 128,100 metric tons (5 million bushels). China was the largest buyer of wheat for the week. 🌽🌾🚢
A recent flash sale of corn to Mexico was reported by the USDA, with 175,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) sold for delivery during the current marketing year. This marks the first flash sale since December 19th and the first flash sale of US corn since December 8th. 🌽🇲🇽🚢
Inflation has risen more than expected, with the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.3% increase compared to the previous month, slightly surpassing the anticipated 0.2%. On a yearly basis, CPI increased by 3.4% in December, exceeding economists' projections of 3.2%. Shelter costs played a significant role in this increase, with a monthly rise of 0.5% and an annual increase of 6.2%. Despite this, the markets are still projecting a 69% likelihood of the Federal Reserve starting to cut rates in March. The December Producer Price Index (PPI) report, expected later today, will provide further insights. 💹📈💰

How Will USDA Surprise Us on Friday?? Jan 11, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Conab, Brazil's equivalent to the USDA, has reduced its forecasts for both Brazil's soybean and corn crops. The soybean estimate has been lowered by 4.2% to 155.3 million tons, but despite this reduction, Brazil is still on track to achieve a record soybean crop this season. Additionally, Brazil is expected to maintain its position as the world's leading soybean exporter, with an estimated export volume of 98.4 million tons. Conab has also downgraded its projection for Brazil's corn crop by nearly 11%, estimating it at 117.6 million tons. Corn exports are anticipated to decline to 35 million tons, down from 56 million tons in the previous year. 🌱🌽🇧🇷
Winter Storm Gerri is set to bring more winter weather to the Plains and Midwest. This storm is forecast to bring heavy snowfall and gusty winds to various regions. It is expected to drop snow across the Central Plains, moving eastward into southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. The Midwest is likely to experience persistent snowfall and gusty winds throughout Friday. Some areas, particularly in northern Illinois and Michigan, could see more than 6 inches of snow accumulation. ❄️🌬️
US ethanol production increased during the past week, with a weekly output of 1.06 million barrels, marking a 1.2% increase compared to the previous week and a substantial 26% increase year-over-year. Ethanol stocks reached 24.4 million barrels, showing a 3.4% rise compared to the previous week but a slight decrease compared to the same period last year. Implied gasoline demand also saw positive growth, rising by 4.7% compared to the previous week and by 11% year-over-year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand has increased by 1.2% compared to the same period in the previous year. 🌽🛢️🚗
Economists are anticipating an increase in inflation for the month of December. The expected rise is estimated at 0.2% compared to the previous month and a year-over-year increase of 3.2%. This potential uptick in inflation could have implications for the Federal Reserve's plans regarding interest rates. While the Fed had previously indicated three quarter-percentage-point rate cuts by the end of the year, the markets are anticipating a total of six rate cuts. Fed officials have suggested that rate hikes may be finished, but the possibility of rate cuts remains uncertain. The December CPI report, which could provide further insight, is set to be released today. 💹🏦💲
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved 11 spot-bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This decision allows everyday traders to buy and sell bitcoin through these ETFs without needing to own the cryptocurrency directly. The new ETFs began trading on the same day they were approved. Bitcoin settled just below $46,000 on the day of the announcement, following a substantial increase in its value since January 2023, when it was approximately $17,000 lower. Some critics argue that this approval could pose challenges for the SEC in terms of investor protection. 📈💰🪙

PERFECT STORM of Bearish News for Soybean Market?? Jan 10, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Brazil Soybean Update
1:33 Argentina Update
2:03 "Perfect Storm"
5:00 USDA Preview
6:36 Ukraine Peace Meeting
7:49 JBS Stock Listing
9:53 Cattle & Outside Markets
Brazil's largest farm cooperative, Coamo, is gearing up to receive substantial quantities of soybeans by the end of January. The accelerated harvest is a result of hot weather conditions, which have expedited the crop's maturation. The last time Coamo received such significant soybean volumes in January was during the 2018/2019 season. Despite the early harvest, soybean yields are holding up as average, even with the shortened growing season. This early influx of soybeans has also led to a reduction in soybean port premiums relative to US soybeans. 🌱🚜🌞
Argentina's soybean and corn crops have been benefiting from adequate rainfall throughout December, as reported by the Buenos Aires grain exchange. The favorable precipitation is expected to continue into January, accompanied by mild temperatures. However, rainfall is projected to taper off in March, with rising temperatures. The Rosario grain exchange is forecasting Argentina's soybean crop to reach 50 million tons and its corn crop to hit 56 million tons. 🌧️🌽🇦🇷
The USDA is scheduled to release several important reports on January 12th, including quarterly Grain Stocks, monthly Crop Production / WASDE, and Winter Wheat Seedings. The January report is historically a significant market mover and has the potential to trigger trend changes. It will also provide the "final" 2023 US corn and soybean production numbers, which are closely monitored by traders. South American production estimates will also be a focus. 📊🌽🌱
In a secret meeting last month, Ukraine, along with G-7 countries and a select group of Global South nations, engaged in discussions regarding Ukraine's "peace formula" and guidelines for future interactions with Russia. However, no major progress was reported from the meeting, highlighting the ongoing complexities of the situation. Notably, China, Brazil, and the United Arab Emirates did not attend, and Russia was not invited. Despite more than $100 billion in aid pledged by the US and EU for Ukraine, efforts to resolve the conflict have faced challenges. 🤝🌍🕊️
A group of UK lawmakers is taking action to pressure the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to prevent JBS, the world's largest meat supplier, from being listed on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange). The lawmakers argue that JBS is associated with deforestation, human rights violations, and the seizure of land from Indigenous people. JBS has been seeking NYSE listing for over a decade, and company executives believe that such a listing could significantly boost its market value to nearly $30 billion.🌳🌎🚫

NASTY Winter Storm Hits the US Jan 09, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Winter Storm Finn is set to impact the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, bringing a mix of snow, strong winds, and rain. This storm is currently moving across the Plains and will reach its peak impact in the central and eastern states on Tuesday and Wednesday. Significant snow accumulations, potentially reaching 5 inches or more, are expected in several areas, including western Kansas, eastern Nebraska, Iowa, northern Missouri, northwest Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. Some localized totals could even reach up to a foot of snow, accompanied by strong winds. 🌨️❄️💨
Despite facing challenges, Ukraine continues to export cargo through its alternative Black Sea corridor. This corridor was established in August as an alternative to the Black Sea grain deal after Russia exited. Ukraine has successfully shipped 15 million tons of cargo through this route, with agricultural goods accounting for 10 million tons of the total. However, Ukraine's grain exports have seen an 18% decline this season compared to the same period last year. Corn exports are down by 23%, while wheat exports have seen a more modest 1% decrease. 🌾🚢🌊
Soybean yields in Mato Grosso, Brazil, are currently below normal due to hot and dry conditions. As of last Thursday, only 0.6% of Brazil's soybean crop had been harvested. These challenging weather conditions have impacted yields in Mato Grosso, and recent rains are now making the harvest difficult. While the crop was initially projected to reach 159 million tons by AgRural, this estimate may be revised in light of the adverse conditions. Additionally, 3.3% of the first corn crop in south-central Brazil had been harvested as of last Thursday. 🌱🌦️🚜
US soybean shipments faced a decline last week, with 674,749 metric tons (25 million bushels) inspected for export during the week ending January 4. This marked a 30% decrease compared to the previous week and a 54% decline compared to the same week last year. In contrast, corn shipments increased by 50% compared to the prior week, reaching 856,597 metric tons (34 million bushels). Wheat shipments also exceeded expectations, totaling 491,074 metric tons (18 million bushels) and increasing by 78% compared to the previous week and a substantial 134% compared to the same week last year. 🌾🚢📉
The US dollar, which had initially shown strength in the first days of the year, retreated for the second consecutive day. This pullback was driven by speculators betting against the dollar, anticipating that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates this year. US Treasury yields also experienced a retreat. The focus now turns to key inflation data with the upcoming release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, which will provide insights into the economic landscape and potential Fed actions. 💵📉📊

EVIL Speculators Drive Grain Prices Lower Jan 08, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Estimates for Brazil's soybean crop continue to trend downward as adverse weather conditions impact production. Last week, the USDA lowered its projection for the 2022/2023 Brazilian soybean crop to 158.5 million tons due to a lack of rainfall. In contrast, the estimate for the 2022/2023 crop was increased by 3 million tons to 158 million tons. This adjustment reflects the agency's expectations for higher domestic demand for soybean meal and oil, potentially limiting exports of these products. Additionally, Argentina's return to normal export levels may pose challenges for Brazilian exports of soybean oil and meal. Safras also reduced its estimate for this season's Brazilian soybean crop to 151.4 million tons, further highlighting the challenging conditions faced by Brazilian soybean farmers. 🌱🇧🇷🌧️
Large money managers increased their net short positions in the corn market, according to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders data. During the week ending January 2, these funds were net sellers of 29,000 contracts of corn, reflecting bearish sentiment in the market. Similar trends were observed in soybeans and SRW wheat, where large money managers also increased their net short positions. 📉🌽📊
US corn export sales faced a significant decline last week, with net sales dropping to a marketing year low of 367,500 metric tons (14 million bushels). This decrease of 70% from the previous week and the prior 4-week average highlights the challenges in the export market. On the soybean front, net sales also hit a marketing year low at 201,600 metric tons (7 million bushels), down 80% from the previous week and 85% from the prior 4-week average. Wheat sales of 131,600 metric tons (5 million bushels) were down 52% from the previous week and 79% from the prior 4-week average. These numbers underscore the dynamic nature of US grain exports and the impact of various factors on sales. 🌾🌽🚢
The December jobs report brought some positive news, as more jobs were added than expected. Non-farm payrolls increased by 216,000, surpassing economists' projections of 175,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%, defying expectations of a slight uptick to 3.8%. While the pace of job creation in 2023 slowed compared to the previous year, the US economy still added 2.7 million jobs throughout the year. 📈💼🇺🇸
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is moving closer to approving spot-bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The SEC's announcement that exchanges and issuers seeking to list Bitcoin ETFs must submit final paperwork by a certain deadline indicates progress in this area. The SEC commissioners are expected to vote on the exchange-rule filings, and if approvals are obtained, these ETFs could begin trading shortly thereafter. This development highlights the growing interest in cryptocurrency-related investment products and their regulatory evolution. 📈💱📊

Grain Demand: Some POSITIVE News (Exports and Ethanol) Jan 05, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
The wheat market saw a rally on Thursday, driven by rumors of increased Chinese buying interest in US Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. China has already purchased nearly 2 million metric tons (mmt) of US SRW wheat for the current marketing year, likely due to quality issues in its own crop. This news has pushed the pace of US wheat export sales ahead of last year's levels, although it remains the second weakest in the past decade. 🌾🇨🇳🌾
The USDA is set to release several important reports on January 12th, including quarterly Grain Stocks, monthly Crop Production/WASDE, and Winter Wheat Seedings. These reports can have a significant impact on the markets and may bring about trend changes. The January report will include the "final" 2023 US corn and soybean production figures, which traders will be closely watching, along with any changes in South American production estimates. 📊📈🌽
Brazil is experiencing a wetter weather pattern, with daily rainfall expected over the next 10 days. While this rainfall is beneficial for some areas, northern Brazil, which faced an abnormally dry period from September to December, could become "too wet." Additionally, rain is expected to return to southern Brazil in the 5-10 day period. These weather developments are being closely monitored as they can impact crop conditions and production. 🌦️🇧🇷🌱
US ethanol production declined last week, with weekly output dropping by 5.2%. Despite the weekly decrease, ethanol stocks increased marginally. Implied gasoline demand also experienced a significant drop compared to the previous week but remained up slightly over the same period last year. The ethanol market continues to be influenced by factors such as fuel demand and inventory levels. ⛽🍃📉
Oil prices saw a decline on Thursday, driven by reduced fuel demand and increased fuel inventories. WTI crude closed at $72.19 per barrel as gasoline stocks rose significantly by 10.9 million barrels. Distillate stocks also increased by 10.1 million barrels. Despite the drop in crude inventories by 5.5 million barrels, the surge in fuel stocks took precedence. Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea have influenced the dynamics of crude oil supply and demand. 🛢️⛽📉
The US labor market remains robust, with the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits falling to 202,000, the lowest since mid-October. This positive trend reflects a strong labor market, even as the demand for workers has slightly declined. The December jobs report, released today, is expected to show an increase in non-farm payrolls and a slight rise in unemployment compared to November. 📈💼🇺🇸
US ethanol production declined last week. Weekly output of 1.05mil barrels decreased 5.2% on the week but increased 9% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were pegged at 23.6mil barrels. The print was up marginally compared to the previous week, but -4.3% compared to the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand was -13% compared to the previous week and 15% vs. the same week last year. On average, over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up marginally vs. the same period last year. See charts below.
Oil prices declined on Thursday. Reduced fuel demand and increased fuel inventories c

UNDER PRESSURE: Row Crop Markets Struggle Amid Brazil Rains Jan 04, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Rainfall in northern Brazil is continuing, with daily showers expected for the next week and beyond. The 5-day forecast indicates wet conditions in some of the driest areas of the country, while the 10-day forecast shows rain covering almost the entire region. This is welcome news for areas that have been experiencing drought conditions. Southern Brazil had been excessively wet in October and November, but dry conditions were affecting central and northern regions. The recent rains are falling where they are needed most. 🌧️🇧🇷
Drought conditions have caused the water level in the Panama Canal to drop significantly, reaching 6 feet below normal. As a result, the Panama Canal Authority has had to limit the daily number of vessels passing through the canal to 24, down from the usual capacity of around 38. To address this issue, the authority is considering two options: creating an artificial lake to pump water into the canal or using cloud seeding to increase rainfall. Both solutions would take time to implement, with the artificial lake requiring congressional approval and a substantial budget. However, many farmers and ranchers are concerned about the potential flooding of their lands if the lake is created. 🚢🌊🇵🇦
The Federal Reserve released minutes from its December meeting, indicating that the benchmark lending rate is likely near its peak. Officials agreed that rates need to remain restrictive for some time, but they anticipate initiating rate cuts this year. The Fed's outlook includes three interest rate cuts in 2024, totaling 0.75%. Futures markets, however, are anticipating six rate cuts in the same year. Strong economic growth and ongoing wage increases could pose challenges to inflation control and the Fed's rate-cutting plans. 💱🏦💼
Oil prices saw a significant increase of over 3% on Wednesday, driven by calls from the US and eleven allies for the Houthis to halt their attacks in the Red Sea. Additionally, protests in Libya disrupted oil production from a field that typically produces 300,000 barrels per day. OPEC's announcement of continued support for oil market stability, despite some skepticism about the voluntary production reduction commitments from its members, also contributed to the rise in prices. WTI crude closed at $72.50 per barrel. 🛢️📈💧
Gas prices are expected to decline in the coming weeks, with the national average potentially dropping below $3.00 per gallon. This dip in prices follows the holiday travel season and is part of the typical seasonal trend. However, the trend usually reverses in mid-to-late February when refineries begin maintenance and transition to cleaner, more expensive fuel blends. Diesel prices have also fallen below $4.00 per gallon, reaching levels last seen during the previous summer. ⛽📉🚗

UGLY Start to 2024: Why Did Corn and Soybean Prices Collapse on Tuesday?? Jan 03, 2024

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro + Corn and Soybean Collapse
2:00 Brazil Estimates and Weather
5:04 "The Funds"
5:48 China/Taiwan
7:46 Red Sea / Iran
8:48 Export Sales
9:44 Stock Market Wins 2023
11:27 Cattle and Outside Markets
Corn and soybean futures saw significant declines on Tuesday, with the Mar24 corn contract dropping over 7 cents per bushel and closing at a life-of-contract low. Meanwhile, the Dec24 corn contract closed below $5.00 for the first time since July. The Mar24 soybean contract also faced a sharp drop, losing more than 24 cents and closing at its lowest level since June. This decline was primarily attributed to improved weather conditions in Brazil, with some analysts also considering a potential slowdown in Chinese demand. 🌽📉🌱
Estimates for Brazil's soybean crop continue to be revised downward. StoneX reduced its projection for this season's Brazilian soybean crop to 152.8 million tons, down from its previous estimate of 161.9 million tons, citing a lack of precipitation as the reason for the reduction. South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier also cut his projection to 151 million tons due to lower yields on early-harvested soybeans. 🇧🇷🌱📉
Large money managers made adjustments in their positions, with a net increase of 10k contracts of corn, 1k contracts of soybeans, and 6k contracts of SRW wheat during the week ending December 26. 📊🌾💰
China's President Xi Jinping reiterated during his New Year's Eve address that he believes China and Taiwan will eventually be reunified, despite Taiwan's insistence on its independence and its upcoming elections on January 13th, which will play a significant role in determining the future of China-Taiwan relations. 🇨🇳🇹🇼🗳️
Iran sent a warship to the Red Sea after the US Navy destroyed three Houthi boats that were attempting to hijack a Maersk shipping vessel. This incident led to Maersk suspending Red Sea transit, and the situation in the region remains tense as various naval forces patrol the area. 🚢🌊🇮🇷🇺🇸
US corn export sales improved, with net sales of 1.2 million metric tons (49 million bushels), driven in large part by Mexican purchases. However, soybean sales were poor, totaling 983,900 metric tons (36 million bushels), with China as the largest buyer. Wheat sales also declined. 🌽🌾🚢
The stock market closed out 2023 with impressive gains, driven by a strong economy, declining inflation, and speculation of reduced interest rates in the coming months. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all posted substantial gains for the year, with expectations of continued momentum into 2024, pending Federal Reserve actions. 📈💼🎉📊

Drastically WETTER Brazilian Forecast: Soybean Prices at Risk?? Dec 29, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Recent weather forecasts for Brazil indicate a shift towards wetter conditions, with a widespread rain event expected to begin on Saturday and continue through the first week of January. The heaviest rainfall is anticipated in some of the driest parts of Brazilian soybean regions, benefiting crop conditions. However, areas further south, which already have moisture surpluses, will see relatively drier conditions. 🌧️🇧🇷
Argentina's government is proposing to raise export taxes on major grain crops as part of new economic reforms. This move has faced opposition from Argentina's agricultural industry, which believes it contradicts promises made by the new right-wing government. Despite the proposed tax increase, Argentine farmers have made significant planting progress thanks to abundant rainfall, with 79% of the soybean crop and 70% of the corn crop already planted, according to the Buenos Aires grain exchange. 🚜🌾🇦🇷
A Russian mine damaged a Panamanian cargo ship in the Black Sea, injuring two crew members and forcing the ship's captain to run it aground to prevent sinking. The vessel was en route to a Ukrainian port to load grain. Tensions in the Black Sea have escalated due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian forces in Crimea, including an airstrike that destroyed a Russian warship. ⚓🌊🇷🇺🇺🇦
USDA's weekly drought monitor data showed above-normal temperatures in the Corn Belt, with improvements in drought conditions in parts of Missouri, Iowa, and Minnesota due to above-normal precipitation. However, southern Illinois saw worsening drought conditions due to a lack of moisture, with precipitation at just 25% of normal for the month. Heavy precipitation in the High Plains improved drought conditions in eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas. 🌞🌾🌦️🇺🇸
US ethanol production increased last week, with output at 1.1 million barrels, up 3.4% from the previous week and 7.6% compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were at 23.5 million barrels, up 2.7% from the previous week but down 2.3% from the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand was up 4.7% from the previous week and 5.2% from the same week last year. 🇺🇸🌽🛢️
Gasoline prices are expected to decline in 2024, with the national average projected to drop to $3.38 per gallon, down from $3.51 in the current year. Summer prices are expected to hover around $4.00 a gallon, except in California, where prices could exceed $6.00. The average American household is expected to spend $2,407 on gasoline in 2024, down 2% from 2023 and 12% from 2022. Diesel prices are also predicted to gradually decline in 2024. ⛽📉💰🚗🇺🇸

US Drought STILL a Problem- Are Farmers Worried?? Dec 28, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Recent 🌧️ in the US brought relief from drought in various regions, including the Corn Belt, Plains, mid-south, and southeast, with 1-2 inches of precipitation. Mississippi River levels are set to rise by 6-7 feet at Memphis, aiding grain transportation.
Brazil's soybean production estimates continue to decline. Crop scout Cordonnier lowered the estimate to 153 million metric tons (mmt) from 155 mmt. USDA and CONAB will provide updated estimates in January, having previously forecasted over 160 mmt.
US hiring is expected to slow in 2024, impacting wage gains and inflation. Projections suggest annual wage gains may drop to 4.3%. December's jobs report is expected to show 170,000 job gains, but early 2024 could average only 80,000 monthly additions.
US bond yields fell after the Treasury Department's $58 billion 5-year Treasury note sale. Markets anticipate an 86% chance the Fed will keep rates steady in January and an 85% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in March. By December 2024, the Fed's main rate could range from 3.75% to 4%.
Stocks closed higher, with the S&P 500 nearing its record high, up 0.14% at 4,781. 📈 The Dow is poised for a 13% yearly gain, the S&P 500 for 24%, and the Nasdaq for 44%. 📊 Uncertainty remains regarding potential Fed rate cuts and their impact on markets. 🤔

Grains RALLY on Black Sea News - Follow-Through Buying Possible??? Dec 27, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro + Black Sea Attack / Rally
2:11 Rail Crossings Reopened
4:55 Brazil Update / Early Harvest
6:26 "The Funds"
7:24 US Grain Shipment Update
8:36 Cattle on Feed Report
🇺🇦 Ukraine reported destroying a Russian warship in Crimea, with conflicting reports on damage and casualties. The ground war between Ukraine and Russia is at a near standstill, with aid packages stalled in Washington and Europe.
🚆 US-Mexico railroad crossings at Eagle Pass and El Paso, TX, have reopened after being closed due to a surge of migrants. Nearly 10,000 railcars were held up on both sides of the border during the closures.
🌱 Early soybean harvest has started in Brazil, with Mato Grosso farmers harvesting about 1% of the crop. Drought conditions have forced early harvesting, and yields are expected to be the lowest in 40 years.
📊 Large money managers increased their net short position in the corn market while reducing their positions in soybeans. They were net buyers of SRW wheat.
🌽 US soybean shipments were weak last week, down compared to the previous week and the same week last year. Corn shipments increased, while wheat shipments saw a significant increase compared to the previous week and last year.
🐄 Friday's Cattle on Feed report was seen as neutral to bearish for the cattle market, with cattle on feed at 103% of year-ago levels, placements at 98%, and marketings at 93%.

Soybean Struggle Bus: More Rain in Brazil Dec 22, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌧️ Rain clusters have brought relief to key Brazilian soybean areas, improving crop conditions. However, a drier pattern is expected in the first half of next week before more rain returns from New Year's holiday through January 4th or 5th.
🇦🇷 Recent rainfall has benefited Argentina's soybean crop, with 91% of planted acres receiving optimal moisture. The corn crop, with 59% of planted acres, is also in good to very good condition.
🌾 The latest USDA drought monitor data shows ongoing drought conditions in several US regions, affecting corn, soybeans, wheat, and cattle. Some areas in the Midwest experienced worsening drought conditions due to above-normal temperatures and dry weather.
🚢 Traffic through the Panama Canal has not increased, despite Houthi attacks disrupting Red Sea travel. The Panama Canal previously limited vessel traffic due to low water levels but increased its daily transits earlier this month.
🌽 US corn export sales declined last week, while soybean sales were strong, boosted by recent flash sales. Wheat sales were down, with Mexico as the largest buyer for the week.
📈 The November Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE index) is expected to rise 0.1% on a monthly basis and 3.3% annually. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting rates as early as March.
🎄Please note that the grain markets are closed on Christmas Day and will reopen on Tuesday, December 26th.🎄

US/Mexico Rail Situation Gets Serious- Grain Exports at Risk!! Dec 21, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🚂🌽 The Biden administration is facing pressure from agricultural groups and politicians to reopen the US-Mexico railroad crossings that were closed due to an influx of migrants. Operations are expected to return to normal by January, according to a Mexican official.
🌧️ Rainfall has hit key Brazilian soybean areas, providing relief to some regions with moisture deficits. However, the dry period is expected to return early next week before more rain is forecasted around January 2nd.
🌽🚢 Brazil has become China's top corn supplier, supplying 90% of China's corn imports in November. Brazil's corn exports to China have surged this year, while US corn imports by China have been lower due to various factors, including drought-related shipping disruptions.
📉 US ethanol production declined slightly last week, with ethanol stocks increasing. Implied gasoline demand was down compared to the previous week but remains higher than the same period last year.
🚢🛢️ Despite rising tensions in the Red Sea, energy markets have remained relatively stable. Naval deployments in the region aim to deter further Houthi attacks, but experts believe the disruptions will be temporary, and shipping companies will return to using the Suez Canal.
⛽ Gasoline prices have seen an increase, posting their largest one-day gain since August due to Red Sea disruptions. Gasoline prices are expected to trend higher as oil prices remain strong amid the disruptions.

Mar24 Corn Fresh Low Close + Mexico Rail Update Dec 20, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌽📉 The nearby Mar24 corn contract reached a life-of-contract low close on Tuesday, closing just below $4.73 per bushel after a 4-cent drop. Logistics issues at the US/Mexico border, Panama Canal, and Red Sea, coupled with a record 2023 US harvest, are contributing factors. Farmers are considered "undersold" compared to a typical year.
🚂🌽 Mexico is facing potential shortages of corn and soybean meal due to this week's rail closures. Mexico's farm lobby, CNA, emphasized the importance of goods and inputs for livestock and industrial uses, estimating less than 9 days' supply of soybean meal and 8 to 20 days' supply of corn. Union Pacific estimates a daily economic impact of $200 million. Mexico accounts for 47% of all US corn export sales this year.
🇧🇷🌱 Poor growing conditions are expected to impact Brazilian soybean production, particularly in Mato Grosso, with a 20% reduction expected compared to last season, according to Aprosoja. USDA and CONAB have also reduced their estimates for Brazil's soybean production, which began the season with higher expectations.
🌽🚗 The EPA has requested White House approval for a rule allowing year-round sales of E15 in select Midwestern states, including Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. The proposal has faced opposition from the oil industry, citing potential supply chain issues and higher gasoline prices.
💰💼 Ukrainian aid has been postponed until 2024, as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced. The aid package has been delayed due to Republican demands for immigration policy changes to be included. The Pentagon warns that funds needed to replace weapons sent to Ukraine will run out by December 30.
If you have any more questions or need further information, feel free to ask! 🚢🌎🛤️📊🇺🇦

US/Mexico Rail Shutdown: Big Deal for Corn Market?? Dec 19, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro + Mexico Rail Shutdown
2:58 Reduced Brazil Corn Acreage?
5:52 Red Sea Attacks
7:18 Export Shipments
8:18 Goldman Stock Market Target
9:44 Cattle and Outside Markets
🚂🇺🇸🇲🇽 US-Mexico railroad border crossings temporarily closed due to migrant surge, impacting supply chains for essential commodities like grain, industrial products, and cars.
🌽🇧🇷 Brazilian farmers delay fertilizer purchases for the second corn crop due to drought and soybean planting delays, affecting crop production.
🌱🚢 US soybean shipments improved with 1.4 million metric tons (52 million bushels) inspected for export, showing a +41% increase compared to the previous week but a -28% decrease versus the same week last year. Corn shipments also increased by 31%, totaling 947,418 metric tons (37 million bushels), while wheat shipments decreased by 10%, with 284,792 metric tons (10 million bushels) reported.
📈📊 Goldman Sachs has raised its 2024 forecast for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach 5,100 next year, up from the previous target of 4,700. The S&P 500, currently at 4,740, is just 1.2% below its January 2022 high. The market has seen significant gains since late October, primarily driven by expectations of rate cuts in 2024, with the Fed announcing plans for a 0.75% reduction, while the market anticipates a larger cut of 1.5%.

Foreign Entities Are Buying MORE Land in the US Dec 18, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
USDA Foreign Holdings of US Ag Land Report:
https://www.fsa.usda.gov/Assets/USDA-FSA-Public/usdafiles/EPAS/PDF/2022_afida_annual_report_12_14_23.pdf
🚜 Foreign-Owned US Farmland Surges in 2022:
US farm acres owned by foreign entities grew by more than 8% last year to 43.4 million acres. Canada remains the largest foreign investor, accounting for 32% of foreign-owned acres, while China owns less than 1% of US agricultural land at 350,000 acres. Since 2017, purchases of US farmland by foreign entities have been increasing, averaging over 3 million acres per year. 🇨🇦🇨🇳🏞️
🌱 NOPA Releases November Crush Data:
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that its members processed 189.038 million bushels of soybeans in November, the second-largest crush for any month on record. End-of-month soybean oil stocks in November rose for the first time in seven months, reaching 1.214 billion pounds, the highest end-of-month oil supply since August. 🌿📈🌽
🌧️ Rain Returning to Brazil:
Rainfall is expected to return to Brazil this week, providing much-needed relief to central and northern areas that have been experiencing substantial moisture deficits. Daily rainfall is anticipated to continue at least through Saturday. 🇧🇷🌧️🌱
🌽 Biden Administration Provides Win for Ethanol with SAF Tax Credits:
President Joe Biden's administration announced recognition of the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for companies seeking tax credits from Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The model paves the way for corn-based ethanol to qualify for SAF tax credits, offering growth opportunities for ethanol producers and farmers. The administration plans to update the methodology by March 1, potentially impacting SAF feedstock requirements. 🌽✈️💳
💼 Large Money Managers Trim Net Short Position in Corn:
In the week ending December 12, "the funds" reduced their net short position in the corn market by 7,000 contracts. Funds were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of soybeans but net buyers of 29,000 contracts of Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. 📊🌽🌾
📊 USDA Reports Flash Sales of Soybeans:
On Friday, US exporters reported flash sales of 134,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China and 447,500 metric tons (16 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year. However, the US soybean export book remains 20% below the same period last year. 🚢🌱📉
Stay updated with the latest agricultural news and developments! 🌾🌍📰 #Farmland #SoybeanCrush #BrazilRains #Ethanol #Corn #SoybeanSales 🚜🌧️📈🌽✈️📊

Why Can't Soybeans Rally on Brazil Weather?? Dec 15, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Brazilian Soybean Areas Facing Dry Conditions:
Key Brazilian soybean areas are expected to remain mostly dry through the weekend, leading to crop stress due to abnormally warm temperatures and a lack of rainfall. Rain is forecast to return by Tuesday next week, with central and northern areas expected to receive better amounts through Christmas. The extended Global Forecast System (GFS) suggests additional rainfall for some areas by year-end but may not be reliable.
Ethanol Producers Awaiting SAF Credit Approval:
Ethanol producers are anticipating a victory with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) tax credits. The Biden administration is expected to approve the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model, allowing ethanol-based SAF to qualify for tax credits. However, the administration is also expected to update the GREET methodology by March 1, potentially impacting the use of corn-based ethanol in SAF. Regulations around SAF feedstocks are expected to tighten.
Record-High Electric Vehicle (EV) Inventories:
US EV inventories on dealer lots have doubled compared to a year ago, resulting in a 114-day supply. Consumers have been deterred from EVs due to their high cost and inadequate charging infrastructure. Major automakers like Ford and GM are reducing production of some EV models. A group of US auto dealers has requested the Biden administration to reduce EV mandates because of the large inventories.
Rainfall in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas:
Rainfall moved over Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas recently, with up to 2.5 inches recorded in parts of the Texas panhandle and northward regions. This rainfall is much needed, as many areas have been experiencing drought conditions to varying degrees. Kansas rated the winter wheat crop at 39% good to excellent in its final crop progress report for the year.
Declining Mortgage Rates:
Mortgage rates in the US have declined for seven consecutive weeks, with the average 30-year mortgage rate falling to 6.95%, the lowest since August. Rates peaked in October at 7.8%. The Fed's forecast of rate cuts in 2024 is expected to push mortgage rates near or below 6%. Lower rates are expected to boost home sales, which have slowed significantly due to rising rates.
US Grain Export Sales:
US corn export sales improved last week, with net sales of 1.4 million metric tons (56 million bushels), up 10% from the previous week. Net soybean sales of 1.1 million metric tons (40 million bushels) were down 23% from the previous week. Net wheat sales were strong, totaling 1.5 million metric tons (55 million bushels), a marketing year high.
Flash Sale of Soybeans Reported by USDA:
US exporters reported a flash sale of 400,000 metric tons (15 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year. However, the US soybean export book continues to lag behind the same period last year by 20%.
Stay tuned for more updates on these and other market developments! 🌽🚜📉 #SoybeanAreas #EthanolProducers

Dovish Fed: Ag Borrowing Costs to DROP Dec 14, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🏦📉 Market Update - Fed Rate Decision, PPI Data, South American Weather, Argentina Export Taxes, Ethanol Production, and More 🇺🇸🌽🌦️
🏦 Fed Rate Decision - Rates Held Steady:
The Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. It also signaled at least three rate cuts in 2024, totaling 0.75%. The markets are anticipating more significant rate cuts, with expectations of a 1.5% reduction next year. Following the announcement, stock markets, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, gained 1.4%, with the Dow Jones surpassing 37,000 for the first time.
📊 November PPI Data:
The November Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed that the economy is still cooling. Wholesale prices remained unchanged on a monthly basis, up from a 0.4% decline in October. On an annual basis, prices increased by 0.9%, down from 1.2% in October and lower than the projected 1%. The report has fueled optimism that inflation will continue to decline, supporting expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions in 2024.
🌦️ South American Weather Update:
Most Brazilian soybean areas are expected to remain dry for the next 5–6 days, benefiting production in southern areas but posing challenges for central and northern regions. Rainfall is forecast to return next week, with spotty coverage and variable amounts. Rainfall remains below normal seasonal levels.
🇦🇷 Argentina Export Taxes Proposal:
Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, has proposed an increase in export taxes on certain grains to 15%, excluding soy. Soybean exports are currently taxed at 33%, while wheat and corn exports are taxed at 12%. This proposal follows Argentina's recent currency devaluation and spending cuts.
🍃 US Ethanol Production:
US ethanol production declined slightly last week, with weekly output at 1.07 million barrels. Ethanol stocks increased to 22.1 million barrels, up 3.1% compared to the previous week but down 5% YoY. Implied gasoline demand saw a 4.6% increase compared to the previous week and 6% YoY.
🌱🚢 USDA Reports Flash Sale of Soybeans:
US exporters reported a flash sale of 125,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year. The US soybean export book continues to lag behind last year, with a 16% deficit for the same period.
Stay tuned for more market developments and insights! #FedRateDecision #PPIData #SouthAmericanWeather #ArgentinaExportTaxes #EthanolProduction 🌐📊🌽🏦

Argentina Devalues Currency: Soybean Market KILLER?? Dec 13, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro + Argentina Currency Situation
3:04 Inflation Update
6:39 GE Testing SAF in Flights
7:44 More Brazil Crop Estimates
9:13 Flash Sale
9:59 Cattle Update
🌾📉 Market Update - Grain Markets Trade Lower, Argentina Currency Devaluation, Inflation Data, and More 🇦🇷💱
📉 Grain Markets Trade Lower:
Grain markets experienced a decline on Wednesday morning.
💱 Argentina Currency Devaluation:
Argentina announced a significant devaluation of its currency, the peso, by 50%, adjusting it to 800 to the US dollar from 400 previously. This move is part of measures to cut the fiscal deficit and address runaway inflation. The devaluation may make Argentina's agricultural products more attractive globally, and export taxes on certain products might be removed once the "economic emergency" concludes.
📈 Inflation Data - November CPI:
Inflation in November slightly cooled, increasing by 3.1% on an annual basis, down from 3.2% in October. On a monthly basis, inflation rose by 0.1%, slightly higher than anticipated. While inflation is gradually decreasing, it remains above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed is expected to maintain unchanged rates, but the uptick in monthly inflation may affect expectations regarding future rate cuts.
✈️ GE Aerospace Tests Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF):
GE Aerospace announced successful testing of ten airplane engine models using 100% SAF made from vegetable oils, waste oils, or fats. GE, a major player in the aviation industry, plans to conduct further extensive testing of SAF to assess its reliability and longevity. US airlines, including American, Delta, and United, have committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
🌱 Brazil's Soybean Crop Forecast Update:
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) has revised its estimate for Brazil's soybean crop, lowering it by nearly 3 million tons to 161.9 million tons. This follows previous reductions by the USDA and CONAB. Abiove also increased its estimates for Brazil's soybean exports to 100.2 million tons in 2024 and crushing to 54.5 million tons.
🌽🚢 USDA Reports Flash Sale of Soybeans:
US exporters reported a flash sale of 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year. Since the start of December, exporters have sold a total of 1.05 million metric tons (39 million bushels) of soybeans through seven flash sales.
Stay tuned for market developments and insights! #GrainMarkets #ArgentinaDevaluation #InflationData #SAFTes

"Anti-Competitive" Fertilizer Pricing?? Grassley Seeks Transparency Dec 12, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌱🌐 Agricultural and Economic Highlights: Oversight of Fertilizer Companies, Brazil's Soybean Planting, Sustainable Aviation Fuel Guidance, and CPI Report Expectations 🌾💡
👥🏭 US Senators Call for Oversight of Fertilizer Companies:
US Senators Chuck Grassley and Tammy Baldwin are set to introduce legislation aimed at increasing transparency in fertilizer companies. The bill directs the USDA to investigate pricing transparency, imports, emerging technologies, concentration within the industry, and potential anticompetitive behaviors. The legislation aims to fit into next year's five-year farm bill reauthorization.
🇧🇷🌱 Brazil's Soybean Planting Progress and Crop Outlook:
Brazil's soybean planting, reported by AgRural, reached 91% completion, slightly behind last year's 95% at the same week. AgRural revised its forecast for this season's soybean crop to 159.1 million tons, down from 163.5 million tons, citing excessive heat and insufficient moisture. Additionally, south-central Brazil farmers have planted 95% of the first corn crop for the season.
🛢️🌿 Guidance on Sustainable Aviation Fuel Subsidies Expected:
The Treasury Department is expected to release guidelines on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) subsidies. The guidance will clarify if SAF made from corn-based ethanol qualifies for subsidies. With increasing electric vehicle sales, the ethanol industry sees SAF as a key avenue for growth.
🚢🌾 US Soybean Shipments and Flash Sale:
US soybean shipments were lackluster last week, with 984,410 metric tons (36 million bushels) inspected for export, down 16% from the previous week and 48% compared to the same week last year. A flash sale of 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year was reported.
💹📊 November Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report:
The November CPI report is anticipated to reveal stable monthly consumer prices for the second consecutive month. On an annual basis, inflation is forecast at 3.1%, slightly lower than October's 3.2%. The Federal Reserve, meeting this week, may consider maintaining rates if inflation remains steady or declines.
📈 Stay informed on agricultural, economic, and market developments! #FertilizerCompanies #BrazilSoybeanPlanting #AviationFuelGuidance #CPIReport 🌍🌾💰

USDA: Corn Situation Still Bearish Despite Better Exports Dec 11, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾📊 Agricultural Highlights: USDA Report, Fund Positions, Climate-Friendly Farming, and Ukrainian Aid Resistance 🌱🌐
🇺🇸🌾 USDA Report Insights:
Friday's USDA report brought limited changes, with increased estimates for US corn and wheat exports due to robust export sales. The US soybean balance sheet remained unchanged. Brazil's soybean production estimate was revised to 161 million metric tons (mmt) from the previous 163 mmt, while last year's crop saw a 2 mmt upward revision to 160 mmt. The Brazilian corn production estimate remained steady at 129 mmt. Argentina's corn and soybean crop estimates were unchanged.
📈🌽 Fund Positions in Corn Market:
Large money managers reduced their net short position in the corn market, according to the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders data. During the week ending December 5, "the funds" were net buyers of 55,000 contracts of corn and 24,000 contracts of SRW wheat. However, funds were net sellers of 33,000 contracts of soybeans.
🌍🤝 US-UAE Collaboration for Climate-Friendly Farming:
The US and the United Arab Emirates are jointly promoting climate-friendly farming through the Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate. With funding exceeding $17 billion, the initiative, established in 2021, focuses on expanding agricultural research, implementing sustainable farming practices, and reducing methane emissions. Partners include Google, Bunge, and The Nature Conservancy.
🇺🇦💰 Challenges in Ukrainian Aid Proposal:
Efforts to provide additional US aid to Ukraine face resistance, especially among Republicans. Support is waning, and Republicans are seeking modifications to immigration and border policies as a condition for funding. Democrats remain committed to open border policies and view funding for Ukraine as crucial to prevent potential catastrophic consequences.
🚢🌾 USDA Flash Sales to China and Unknown Destinations:
USDA reported flash sales, including 136,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China, 110,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soft red winter wheat to China, and 165,000 metric tons (6 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations, further highlighting global trade dynamics.
📊 Stay updated on the latest agricultural developments! #USDAreport #FundPositions #ClimateFarming #UkraineAid #USDAFlashSales 🌾🤝🌱

Bank to Farmers: Cut Emissions or Pay HIGHER Interest Rates!! Dec 08, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾🌍 Agricultural Insights: Interest Rates and Emissions, Brazil's Crop Projections, USDA Reports, Argentine Soybeans, and US Export Sales 🌱📊
🏦 Rabobank's Emission-Linked Interest Rates:
Rabobank may increase interest rates for farmers and rural businesses if they fail to meet greenhouse gas emission targets. Offering sustainability-linked loans, the bank encourages clients to achieve specific emission goals, with successful efforts resulting in interest rate discounts. Rabobank believes most farmers can control emissions with the right tools.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Adjusted Crop Projections:
The Brazilian government, through CONAB, has reduced its soybean estimate to 160.2 million tons, citing unfavorable planting conditions. This adjustment, down from the previous projection of 162.4 million tons, still represents a 4% increase from the last season's crop. The corn estimate was also revised down to 118.5 million tons, a 10% decline from the previous season.
🌽🌱 USDA Crop Production and WASDE Reports Today:
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports, with expectations of minimal changes to US balance sheets. While adjustments for the 2023 US crop projections may be deferred until January, some activity regarding South America is anticipated, particularly in smaller production estimates for Brazilian corn and soybeans.
🌧️ Improved Soybean Conditions in Argentina:
Argentina's soybean conditions have improved with abundant rainfall, as reported by the Buenos Aires grain exchange. Approximately 98% of Argentina's soybean crop is in normal to excellent condition. The country has planted 52% of the expected 42.7 million soybean acres, with a forecasted crop reaching 50 million tons. Corn planting progress is also at 40% of the expected 42.7 million acres.
🌽🌾 US Export Sales Update:
US corn export sales declined last week, with net sales of 1.3 million metric tons (51 million bushels). Soybean sales were also down by 20%, totaling 1.5 million metric tons (56 million bushels), with China being the largest buyer. Wheat sales reached 356,400 metric tons (13 million bushels), with Taiwan as the largest buyer for the week. A flash sale of 121,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations was reported.
📈 Stay informed on the latest agricultural developments! #Rabobank #BrazilCropProjections #USDARports #ArgentinaSoybeans #USExportSales 🌾📊🌱

Lucky 7!! Wheat Winning Streak Continues Dec 07, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro + Brazil Update
2:37 China Buys MORE Wheat
4:42 Russia is in Good Shape
5:43 Ethanol Production Increases
7:06 Suez Canal Accident
7:49 Jamie Dimon Hates Bitcoin
🌐🚢🌾 Global Trade & Market Highlights: Record Brazilian Exports, SRW Wheat Sales, Russian Crop Conditions, Ethanol Production, Suez Canal Incident, and Cryptocurrency Debate 📊🌎🛢️
🇧🇷 Record Brazilian Corn and Soybean Exports:
Brazil is expected to achieve record-high soybean and corn exports, driven by strong Chinese demand and bumper crops. Anec, a prominent trade group, projects Brazilian corn exports to reach 55.95 million tons (up 25% from last year), and soybean exports to reach 101.2 million tons (up 30% from last year and almost 17% higher than the previous record).
🌾 SRW Wheat Flash Sales to China Continue:
USDA reports another flash sale of 372,000 metric tons (14 million bushels) of soft red winter wheat to China. This marks the third SRW wheat flash sale to China this week, totaling 1.01 million metric tons (37 million bushels). Additionally, US exporters sold 136,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China.
🌾 Russian Winter Crop Conditions:
Russia's winter crops are in better condition than last year, with only 4% rated as poor and thin. This rating is below the five-year average of 8%. Russia's agriculture ministry anticipates the second-largest crop on record, maintaining its position as the world's top wheat exporter.
🍃 US Ethanol Production Increases:
Weekly US ethanol production rises to 1.08 million barrels, reflecting a 6.4% increase compared to the prior week and a 5.7% rise year-over-year. Ethanol stocks stand at 21.4 million barrels, slightly up from the previous week but down 6.5% from the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand shows a 3.2% increase week-over-week and a 1.8% rise compared to the same week last year.
🚢 Suez Canal Incident:
A ship collision occurred in the Suez Canal as a containership struck a floating bridge in the eastern lane. Tugboats assisted in pulling the damaged ship, which experienced rudder issues. Ship traffic continued with rerouted vessels. The ship, traveling from Singapore to the Netherlands, can carry about 9,000 containers.
💱 Cryptocurrency Debate:
JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon advocates for banning cryptocurrencies, stating that bitcoin and others should be shut down. During a Senate hearing, Dimon and other bank CEOs suggested subjecting crypto companies to the same regulations as large financial institutions. While opposing cryptocurrencies, JP Morgan Chase is actively involved in blockchain technology, powering cryptocurrencies.
📈 Stay updated on key developments in global trade and markets! #BrazilExports

What Will USDA Lie About This Month?? (Report Friday) Dec 06, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro + USDA Preview
2:44 MORE Wheat Sales to China
5:30 Brazil is Still Dry
6:37 Panama Canal Remains Restrictive
8:06 Crude Oil Prices Decline
9:54 Interest Rates Drop
11:24 Cattle Rebound
📈🌾 Market Insights: USDA Reports, SRW Wheat Sales, Brazil Weather, Panama Canal Woes, and Economic Trends 🌐🚢
📊 Upcoming USDA Reports:
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday. The trade anticipates minimal changes to US balance sheets, with expectations for adjustments in South America's production estimates, particularly for Brazilian corn and soybean crops.
🌾 SRW Wheat Flash Sale to China:
USDA reports another flash sale of 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of US soft red winter wheat to China for delivery in the current marketing year. This marks the second flash sale of SRW wheat to China this week, totaling 638,000 metric tons (23 million bushels). SRW and HRW futures have seen six consecutive sessions of higher closes.
🇧🇷 Brazil Weather Update:
Drier-than-normal conditions persist in many parts of Brazil, with rainfall over the next 10 days expected to maintain the status quo. Northern and central Brazil face below-normal rainfall, while the south maintains a moisture surplus. The forecast, seen as "non-threatening" for now, has implications for soybean price action.
🚢 Panama Canal Challenges Continue:
Severe drought in Panama continues to impact container shipping through the Panama Canal. Despite unexpected rainfall, drought conditions persist, reducing canal crossings from 36 to 25, with an expected further decrease to 18 by February. Non-booked vessels are experiencing longer wait times, currently averaging 11.7 days.
🛢️ Oil Prices Decline on OPEC+ Doubts:
Oil prices have fallen amid demand concerns and uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ supply cuts. Brent crude dropped 1.1% to $77.18 per barrel, and WTI crude declined 1.5% to $72.24 per barrel. Investors question the full implementation of voluntary supply reductions by OPEC+, leading to market pressure amid lackluster demand.
💼 Job Openings Impact Treasury Yields:
Reduced job openings have caused 10-year Treasury yields to fall below 4.2%. The data reflects the lowest job openings since 2021. However, concerns arise over market anticipation of rate cuts from the Fed, prompting advisories to step back from longer-term maturity bonds.
📈 Stay informed on evolving market dynamics! #USDAReports #WheatSales #BrazilWeather #Pana

China Buys MORE Wheat - Will "The Funds" Run for Cover?? Dec 05, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro + Big Wheat Sale to China
3:11 Brazil Crop Update
5:50 Soybean Shipments Decline
7:37 Canada Crop Update
8:40 Gold Rallies to All-Time High
🌾🚢 Trade Highlights: SRW Wheat Sale to China, Brazilian Planting Pace, and Gold's Record Surge 🌐🌾
🌾 SRW Wheat Flash Sale to China:
USDA reports a substantial flash sale of 440,000 metric tons (16 million bushels) of US soft red winter wheat to China for delivery in the current marketing year. This marks the largest daily SRW sale to China in recent years, with a total of 951,000 metric tons (35 million bushels) since August.
🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting Progress:
AgRural notes that Brazilian soybean planting is behind last year's pace, reaching 85% completion as of the latest update. While southern Brazil shows notable progress, northern regions grapple with hot and dry conditions, hindering planting. AgRural adjusts its soybean crop projection to 159.1 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 163.5 million tons.
🚢 US Soybean Shipments Decline:
US soybean shipments for the week ending November 30 dropped to 1.1 million metric tons (41 million bushels), a -30% change compared to the previous week and a 47% decrease compared to the same week last year. In contrast, corn shipments surged by 183% to 1.2 million metric tons (46 million bushels). Wheat shipments were poor at 187,955 metric tons (7 million bushels).
🍁 Canadian Crop Updates:
Statistics Canada releases updated crop estimates, revealing better-than-expected Canadian wheat and canola crops due to late-summer rainfall. All-wheat production is forecasted at 32 million tons, with spring wheat harvesting at 24.8 million tons (up 10% from the previous estimate) and hard red winter wheat at 4 million tons.
🪙 Gold Hits All-Time High:
Gold reaches a new all-time high at $2,135.39 per ounce, surging 3% in response to recent Fed comments, indicating potential rate cuts. The precious metal's rally since October, up 14%, is attributed to decreasing Treasury yields and the dollar as expectations of US rate cuts rise.
📊 Stay tuned for more updates on global trade dynamics! #TradeNews #BrazilianSoybeans #WheatExports #GoldPrices 🌐🌾

Evil Speculators Keep Corn Prices Down Dec 04, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌐📊 Market Insights: Money Manager Positions, Brazilian Crop Updates, Panama Canal Woes, and Rate Expectations 💹🚢
📉 Money Managers Increase Short Positions:
In the latest CFTC data, large money managers expanded their net short position in the corn market. The net short of 212k contracts, the highest since mid-2020, reflects a notable trend. Funds also sold 15k contracts of soybeans and 7k contracts of SRW wheat during the week, as seen in the Fund Tracker charts.
🌱 Brazilian Crop Projections Adjusted:
StoneX revises its estimate for Brazil's soybean crop to 161.9 million tons, down from the earlier projection of 165.03 million tons. This follows reductions by the USDA (163 million tons) and CONAB (162.4 million tons). StoneX also trims forecasts for Brazil's first and second corn crops, with projections at 26.45 million tons and 97.33 million tons, respectively.
🚢 Panama Canal Challenges Impact US Grain Exports:
Low water levels on the Panama Canal, resulting from drought, pose a threat to US grain exports. The canal's limitations have prompted rerouting of US grain shipments through the Suez Canal, adding costs and approximately 10 days of travel to Asian destinations. While the US PNW market is strong, capacity remains limited.
🌱 Flash Sales of US Soybeans:
USDA reports flash sales of 132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China and 198,000mt (7 million bushels) to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year. Despite these sales, the US soybean export book is running 17% below the same period last year.
💹 Inflation, Interest Rates, and Market Expectations:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell asserts that elevated interest rates will persist as long as inflation does not decisively approach the Fed's 2% target. Despite market expectations of rate cuts as early as March 2024, Powell and other officials haven't signaled a shift. The Dow Jones, responding to rate-cut expectations, has gained over 8% in the past month.
📈 Stay informed as market dynamics unfold! #CommodityMarkets #BrazilianCrops #PanamaCanal #Inflation #InterestRates 🌐🌾

Corn Market: Did The US Farmer Just "Sell the Low?" Dec 01, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Matt's Nashville Meeting: https://www.agmarket.net/events/2024/...
🌽📈 Market Highlights: Corn Rally, Meat Advocacy at COP28, and Soybean Sales Surge 🥩🌍
🌽 Corn Futures Surge:
Corn futures witnessed a rally on Thursday, with the Mar24 contract gaining 7 cents per bushel, and the Dec23 contract, now in delivery, seeing a 12-cent increase. The market was buoyed by robust weekly US export sales, making US corn more competitive in the global market. The Dec24 contract maintained a trade above $5 per bushel this week.
🥩 Meat Advocates at COP28:
Major meat companies, including JBS, plan to advocate for meat as environmentally beneficial at COP28, the UN climate change conference. The focus is on promoting meat as sustainable and highlighting carbon-friendly production practices. While the conference emphasizes the impact of methane from agriculture on climate change, the EPA notes that agriculture contributes only 18% of global greenhouse gas emissions, compared to the energy sector's 73%.
🌱 Brazilian Soybean Crop Outlook:
Consultancy firm Patria projects a decline in Brazil's soybean crop to 150.67 million tons, down from last season's 154.1 million tons. This reduction is among the most significant cuts by any private group this season. Patria also lowers its estimate for Brazil's second corn crop to 82.45 million tons, an 18 million-ton decrease from the previous season.
📊 Strong US Export Sales:
US corn export sales were robust last week, hitting a marketing-year high with net sales of 1.9 million metric tons (76 million bushels). Net soybean sales surged by 97% from the previous week, totaling 1.9 million metric tons (70 million bushels), with China as the leading buyer. Wheat sales also increased notably, reaching 622,800 metric tons (23 million bushels), with China as the primary wheat buyer.
🌱 Flash Sale of US Soybeans:
On Thursday, the USDA reported a flash sale of 134,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of US soybeans to China for delivery during the current marketing year. Despite this, the accumulated book of US soybean export sales is running 17% below last year's pace.
📈 Stay tuned for more market insights! #CornRally #MeatAdvocacy #SoybeanSales #GlobalMarkets 🌐🌾

China will be BACK for US Corn - Vilsack Nov 30, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
0:00 Intro + 12k Subs
0:42 Vilsack and China Corn Demand
3:26 Wheat Rally
6:30 SAF Guidance
7:57 Ethanol Production Update
9:10 OPEC Cuts?
10:27 GDP
🌾 Ag & Economic Briefing: Vilsack's Call for Diversification, Wheat Rally, and Economic Trends 🌍📊
🚜 Vilsack Urges Market Diversification:
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack addresses a 20% dip in US corn exports to China, prompting the launch of a $1.2 billion Regional Agricultural Promotion Program to diversify markets. He foresees increased Chinese corn purchases in the future.
🌾 Wheat Futures Soar:
Wheat futures, led by the Mar24 Kansas City contract, spiked over 16 cents amid speculation about Chinese demand and Russian export concerns.
✈️ SAF Guidelines Boost Ethanol Industry:
Anticipated Treasury Department guidelines on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, expected by year-end, aim to ease subsidies for corn-based ethanol, supporting ethanol industry growth.
🌽 Ethanol Production Update:
US ethanol production dropped to 1.01 million barrels, down 1.2% weekly. Ethanol stocks decreased, while implied gasoline demand fluctuates.
🛢️ OPEC+ Considers Cuts, Oil Prices Rise:
OPEC+ mulls 1 million bpd oil production cuts, driving WTI crude to nearly $78 per barrel and Brent crude below $83 per barrel.
📉 US Economic Trends:
Despite a robust 5.2% GDP growth in Q3, signs of a slowing economy emerge. Hiring slows, and higher interest rates impact spending, forecasting a 1-2% Q4 GDP.
📈 Stay updated on key developments! #AgNews #EconomicTrends #WheatRally #EthanolProduction 🌐🌾

Brazil Soybean Estimates SLASHED + Russian Export Ban?? Nov 29, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌍 Global Economic Insights: Brazilian Soybean Estimate Drops, Russian Grain Export Concerns, and More! 🌾🌐
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Update:
Breaking news from MB Agro reveals a significant adjustment in Brazil's soybean production estimate. Drought conditions in Mato Grosso have led MB Agro to lower projections to 155 million tons, a substantial 10 million tons below the initial forecast. The 2024 soybean export potential has also been revised down to 96 million tons.
🇷🇺 Russian Grain Export Watch:
In a potential move that could impact global grain markets, Russia considers a ban on grain exports if supplies fall below 10 million metric tons, according to Russian media outlet Izvestia. Despite assurances from the agricultural ministry about ample reserves, the situation warrants attention. Details in the wheat section below.
🌾 Russian Wheat Production:
Agritel reports a potential slight decline in Russia's wheat production for 2024, projecting around 90 million tons. The forecast, while slightly lower than the record-breaking 2022 harvest, would still maintain total wheat supply above 100 million tons, supported by a bumper crop of winter and spring wheat.
🌱 US Soybean Flash Sale:
On the trade front, the USDA reported a flash sale of 123,300 metric tons (5 million bushels) of US soybeans to unknown destinations. The accumulated book of US soybean export sales remains 20% below last year's pace.
🚗 Auto Industry Pressures Biden:
Nearly 3,900 US auto dealers are urging President Biden to reconsider stringent electric vehicle mandates. Dealers argue that customer reluctance is rooted in high costs, lengthy charging times, and reduced range in extreme weather. The proposed regulations are part of Biden's plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
🏡 US Housing Market Dynamics:
Despite rising interest rates, US home prices continued to climb in September, increasing by 3.9% year-over-year. The surge is juxtaposed with a rise in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, impacting home sales. However, a shortage of homes on the market has sustained prices. As rates ease, there's a slight uptick in mortgage demand, while national median rent dipped by 0.9% from October to November.
📊 Stay informed on global economic shifts! #GlobalEconomy #SoybeanMarket #GrainExports #HousingMarket #ElectricVehicles 🌏📈

Corn Falls to 33-Month Lows: Is The US Farmer Undersold?? Nov 28, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
#agriculture #farming
0:00 Intro
0:27 Corn and Wheat Selloff
1:14 The Farmer is Undersold
3:48 Fund Positioning
4:42 Brazil Update
5:59 Export Inspections
6:57 Biden Supply Chain Council
8:07 Cattle Collapse
🌾 Market Snapshot: Corn & Wheat Hit Lows, Cattle Futures Drop 📉🌽🐄
📊 Corn & Wheat Decline:
US corn and wheat futures hit fresh lows on Monday, with Dec23 contracts reaching $4.54/bushel and $5.88/bushel, respectively. Speculative selling, lack of a bullish catalyst, and December basis contracts contributed to the selloff.
📈 Money Managers Go Bearish:
Large money managers increased their net short position in corn, selling 27k contracts. Soybeans and SRW wheat also saw bearish trends, as highlighted in the Fund Tracker charts.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Soybean Planting Slowdown:
Brazil's 2023/2024 soybean planting is the slowest in eight years, with only 74% completed. Adverse weather conditions are impacting regions differently, affecting both soybean and corn planting.
🚢 US Soybean Shipments Dip:
Soybean shipments declined by 12% (1.4mmt) compared to the previous week. Corn and wheat shipments also experienced decreases, impacting export dynamics.
🌐 Biden Addresses Supply Chains:
President Biden announced a new White House Council on Supply Chain Resilience to tackle issues contributing to inflation. The first report is due by the end of 2024.
🐮 Cattle Futures in Retreat:
Cattle futures, especially feeder cattle, hit lows not seen in months, driven by fund selling and panic short hedging. Despite challenges, the overall cattle market outlook remains bullish.
📈 Stay updated on market dynamics! #Commodities #MarketUpdate #Agriculture #CattleMarket 🌍📊

Spotty Brazil Rain + Cash on the Sidelines Nov 27, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
#agriculture #farming
0:00 Introduction
0:28 Brazil Crops & Weather
2:38 Cash on the Sidelines, Commodities?
5:52 HRW Wheat Rains
6:53 Flash Sales
7:43 Ethanol Production
8:40 Export Sales
10:06 Cattle Update
🌾 Breaking Agribusiness News! Brazilian Soybean Forecast Slashed! 📉
Agribusiness giants Safras & Mercado and Hedge Point have cut their 2023/2024 Brazilian soybean estimates due to harsh growing conditions. Safras now projects 161.4 million tons, down from 163.3 million, while Hedge Point lowered to 160.1 million tons from 162.3 million. Check out the latest Brazil weather maps for insights.
💸 Record Cash Balances Alert! Investors on the Move! 💼
November sees a record $5.76 trillion in cash balances. Explore charts for potential market shifts as investors eye opportunities amidst booming US equity and bond markets.
🌾 US HRW Wheat Country Gets Relief! Rain and Snow Bless Kansas! ☔❄️
Northern Oklahoma and central Kansas receive vital rain and snow, offering relief to dry conditions. Kansas wheat crop struggles with just a 33% good to excellent rating. Dive into the map for a detailed overview.
🌽🌾 USDA Reports Flash Sales! Focus on Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans! 📈
USDA reports flash sales, including wheat to China, corn to unknown destinations, and soybeans to China and unknown destinations for the 2023/2024 marketing year.
🛢️ Ethanol Production Shifts! Weekly Output Dips, Stocks Rise! ⛽
US ethanol production dips 2.3%, stocks reach 21.65 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand falls 5.2%. Explore charts for insights into ethanol production dynamics.
🌽🚢 US Export Sales Update! Soybean Sales Plummet, Corn and Wheat Fluctuate! 📉
US soybean export sales drop 75%. Corn and wheat sales fluctuate, with Mexico leading corn purchases and Japan in wheat transactions.
📆 Important Reminder! Thursday Marks First Notice Day for December Grain Futures! ⏰
As Thursday approaches, review and manage open positions for December grain futures.
Stay tuned for more agribusiness updates! 🌾🌍 Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for the latest insights! 🚜🔔 #Agribusiness #BrazilianSoybean #MarketUpdate 🌱📊

The 2024 Acreage Battle Has Begun (Corn and Soybeans) Nov 22, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
#farming #agriculture
🌾 Explore the future of US agriculture with the latest USDA projections for 2024: 91.0M acres for corn and 87.0M for soybeans. 📊 Watch the corn/soybean ratio for potential shifts in plantings. In Brazil, fluctuating rainfall adds uncertainty to soybean production. 🌱 Discover the challenges and opportunities in carbon capture as Wolf Carbon Solutions withdraws its pipeline permit. ⚡ Vibra Energia is driving the expansion of corn-based ethanol in Brazil's northern states, revolutionizing the biofuel landscape. 🚗💨 Stay in the know about the hurdles facing electric vehicle production amid a decline in crucial metals. Get the scoop on the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to future rate hikes. 📈 Stay informed, stay ahead!

COLLAPSE: Wheat Prices Drop 56% from 2022 Peak Nov 21, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Argentina's New President + Brazil Weather Nov 20, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Rain Headed for Brazil - Soybean Rally OVER?? Nov 17, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

RECORD Soybean Crush: Improved Demand?? Nov 16, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Soybean BREAKOUT + Cooling Inflation Nov 15, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Soybeans SURGE + Corn Key Reversal Nov 14, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

More Hot/Dry Weather in Brazil: Big Deal?? Nov 13, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Corn Posts Fresh Lows on USDA Yield Increase Nov 10, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Black Sea Headlines are BACK + Big Soybean Sales to China Nov 09, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Rumor Mill: BIG Chinese Purchases of US Soybeans?? Nov 08, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Snow Delays China Corn Harvest: Big Deal?? Nov 07, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Soybean Prices SURGE: Brazilian Weather or Something Else?? Nov 06, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

December Corn Posts Lowest Close in 2 Years Nov 03, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Airlines and Grain Giants Push White House on SAF (Corn Ethanol) Nov 02, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Crop Insurance Prices Are Set: How Much Will Uncle Sam Pay?? Nov 01, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Export Problems: Will Rising River Levels Help?? Oct 31, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Soybeans: Is a Meal Rally a Real Rally?? Oct 30, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Rumor Mill: BIG Soybean Purchases on the Way?? Oct 27, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

USDA "Cash 4 Exports" + Ukraine Corridor Closed?? Oct 26, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

China's FAKE US Grain Purchases Oct 25, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Chinese Ambassador Visits Iowa: DEMAND??? Oct 24, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Corn Can't Hold Above $5 - What Happened?? Oct 23, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Why Did Corn Rally on Thursday?? FIVE DOLLAR Dec23 Futures Oct 20, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Soybean RALLY: Harvest Low Posted?? Oct 19, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Global Wheat Problems: Why Can't the Market Rally?? Oct 18, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Biofuel BOOM: Soybean Oil Stocks Hit 9-Year Low Oct 17, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Export Demand: Finally Improving?? Oct 16, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

USDA Cuts Yields: Crop Insurance CONSPIRACY Oct 13, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

22-Month Lows: Why are "The Funds" Selling Soybeans?? Oct 12, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Is USDA Drastically Overstating Brazilian Corn Potential?? Oct 11, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Will the Middle East War Cause Fertilizer Prices to Spike?? Oct 10, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Harvest Low Posted?? Grains Join Crude Rally Oct 09, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Cargo Ship HITS Sea Mine In The Black Sea Oct 06, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Crude Oil Prices PLUNGE On Demand Worries Oct 05, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

China BUYS US SRW Wheat- A sign of things to come?? Oct 04, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

BIGGER US Corn and Soybean Yields?? (don't shoot the messenger) Oct 03, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

USDA Data Sends Grains Lower + Govt Shutdown Averted Oct 02, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

US Funds Ukraine Farmers, CHINA Buys Ukraine Corn, Problem??? Sep 29, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Bloodbath: Wheat Prices Drop 50% from 2022 Peak Sep 28, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

RECORD LOW Levels on the Mississippi: US Grain Exports Suffer Sep 27, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Biggest FLASH SALE of the Year: Is Corn Demand BACK?? Sep 26, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Weekend Rain: Enough to Fix River Issues?? Sep 25, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Soybeans Post Multi-Week Lows, Bad Exports??? Sep 22, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

China Imports More BRAZILIAN Soybeans, US Exports Struggle Sep 21, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Cargill Income Drops + River Situation Sep 20, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

What is a "CHEAP" Corn Price in 2023?? Sep 19, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Soybean Crush MISS: Expansion at Risk?? Sep 18, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Will China Buy US Corn Ever Again?? Sep 15, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

River Levels Near RECORD Lows - Relief on the Way?? Sep 14, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

HUGE Corn Crop Despite Drought - USDA Sep 13, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

ADM Fire- Basis KILLER?? Sep 12, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

River Approaches Record Low Levels, USDA Tuesday Sep 11, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Why Did This Week's Soybean Rally FAIL?? Sep 08, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

USDA to MANIPULATE Corn Prices Next Week?? Sep 07, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

WORST Since 2012!! Soybean Ratings Drop Sep 06, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Northern US Rains to Boost River Levels?? Sep 05, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Labor Day HEAT - 102 in Minnesota?? Sep 01, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

River Levels Continue to Decline- Basis KILLER?? Aug 31, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Wheat CAN'T Rally on Canada Crop News Aug 30, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Soybean Ratings Still STRONG Despite Heat Aug 29, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Crop Tour Results: Bullish or Bearish?? Aug 28, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Crop Tour Day 4 - How BAD is Minnesota?? Aug 25, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Problems in Western Iowa? Crop Tour Day 3 Aug 24, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Crop Tour Day 2 + China's FLOODED Corn Fields Aug 23, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

More HEAT + Crop Tour Day One Aug 22, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095
Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG
Google https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS83OTMwMjIucnNz

EXCESSIVE HEAT: Soybean Prices SURGE Aug 21, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Crop Tour Next Week + Hot/Dry Weather Aug 18, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Grains CAN'T Rally on Black Sea Headlines Aug 17, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Is There Any Hope? Corn Futures Trade Lowest Level Since 2020 Aug 16, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

China FLOODING: Big Deal for Corn?? Aug 15, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

FSA Acres: Bigger Deal Than USDA Yields Aug 14, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Todays's USDA Report: Already OLD NEWS?? Aug 11, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

China Buys MORE US Soybeans: Something or Nothing? Aug 10, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

More MONEY Spent on Corn Jet Fuel: ADM + Phillips 66 Aug 09, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

US Crop Improvement- Illinois Leads the Way Aug 08, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Soybean Prices COLLAPSE on Weekend Rains Aug 07, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

ANOTHER Black Sea Rally: Will It Hold?? Aug 04, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

ETHANOL Jet Fuel: What Will Biden Do?? Aug 03, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Grains CAN'T Rally On New Black Sea Attacks Aug 02, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Is USDA Wrong? Record Corn Yield Projected Despite Drought and Poor Ratings Aug 01, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Row Crops GAP Lower on Non-Threatening August Forecast Jul 31, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Building Drought + More HEAT: Corn/Soybean Impact?? Jul 28, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

MORE Attacks on Ukraine Ports + More Hot & Dry Jul 27, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Corn Belt HEAT + No Ukraine Headline = No Wheat Rally Jul 26, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

LIMIT UP! Wheat Prices Rally to Multi-Month Highs Jul 25, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Wheat & Corn SURGE - Ukrainian Grain Targeted Jul 24, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

105 DEGREES in Iowa Next Week - Record US Corn Yield?? Jul 21, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

THIRD Night of Ukraine Port Attacks - How Will Wheat Prices Be Impacted? Jul 20, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

MORE Ukraine Port Attacks + Hot & Dry Forecast Jul 19, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

HOT & DRY: Corn Belt Weather Shift Jul 18, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Russia Suspends Grain Deal - HOW Will Corn and Wheat be Impacted? Jul 17, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

REVERSE! Row Crops ERASE Report Day Losses Jul 14, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Corn and Soybean Prices DROP on USDA Report Jul 13, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

USDA Preview with Matt Bennett Jul 12, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

This Is NOT 2012- Corn Ratings Improve Jul 11, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Will USDA Cut Corn/Soybean Yields This Week? Jul 10, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

US Drought Lingers - Corn Prices Remain Soft Jul 07, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

July Rain to MISS the Central Corn Belt?? Jul 06, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

US Soybean Ratings Drop AGAIN Despite Recent Rain Jul 05, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG?si=mR4chDsDTCWPPct5--B5Zw&nd=1
Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS83OTMwMjIucnNz?sa=X&ved=0CAcQrrcFahcKEwjIsPqC0_L_AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQLA
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos

Soybean Prices SURGE on USDA Acreage Data Jul 03, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG?si=mR4chDsDTCWPPct5--B5Zw&nd=1
Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS83OTMwMjIucnNz?sa=X&ved=0CAcQrrcFahcKEwjIsPqC0_L_AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQLA
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos

Corn Belt DERECHO Causes Crop Damage Jun 30, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Prices Hinge on Weekend Rain Event Jun 29, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn and Soybean Prices COLLAPSE on Possible Weather Shift Jun 28, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

FORECASTS: More Important than Crop Ratings? Jun 27, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Weekend Rains + Russian Civil War Avoided Jun 26, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Is the Rally OVER? Better Rain Chances Jun 23, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Prices SURGE as US Drought Builds Jun 22, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Big Problems in Illinois?? Crop Ratings COLLAPSE Jun 21, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Fund Traders Flip Corn Position on US Drought Jun 20, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Crop LOSS Event? Corn Prices SURGE on US Drought Jun 16, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Crop Scare Event Continues + Ethanol Problems Jun 15, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Belt is DRY - Rains to Return Next Week?? Jun 14, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Worse Than 2012? Corn Ratings Decline AGAIN Jun 13, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Spotty Weekend Rains, Possible Ridging, + 10k Subs!!! Jun 12, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

When Will Traders Care? Corn Belt DROUGHT Builds Jun 09, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Will USDA Lower the Corn Yield on Friday? Jun 08, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Belt Rains Next Week? Traders are Cautious Jun 07, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

TOO DRY - Illinois Crop Ratings Fall Sharply Jun 06, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Mid-June Rains? Make or Break for Corn Market Jun 05, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Belt Drought Builds, Mid-June Rain Chances?? Jun 02, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Rebound + US Drought Outlook Jun 01, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Weather Flip Flop + Commodity Pressure May 31, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Rapid Onset Drought Risk May 30, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

3-Day Weekend + Weather = Volatility May 26, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Illinois + Indiana: DRY Through First Week of June May 25, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Jet Fuel: Too Expensive To Work?? May 24, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

What the Heck is a FLASH DROUGHT?? (Corn/Soybeans) May 23, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/
#farming #agriculture

Why are "The Funds" Selling Soybeans?? May 22, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

FRIDAY REBOUND: Short-Term Lows Posted?? (Corn/Soybeans) May 19, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

COLLAPSE - How Much Corn Will China CANCEL? May 18, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Nov Soybeans Fall Below $12 + Kansas Wheat Tour May 17, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

The Future of Corn Demand: JET FUEL May 16, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Record US Corn and Soybean Yields? New Crop Futures COLLAPSE May 15, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

USDA Bean Counters to Release Report May 12, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

GUESS the US Corn Yield May 11, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China Cancels MORE Corn Purchases - Markets Fall May 10, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Black Sea Grain Deal: NOT Totally Dead??? May 09, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain RALLY Continues May 08, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Argentina's Corn and Soybean Crops DETERIORATE Further May 05, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: http://www.standardgrain.com/

Attack on the Kremlin- Wheat REBOUNDS from 25-month low May 04, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain COLLAPSE Continues - Wheat Trades 2-Year Lows May 03, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
The Compound and Friends #89: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4NisDU3eNC2my7jjJmVpyy?si=NIeMetaqS6m7PBKWQ5XeSw

More Corn Demand Problems: SLOW Ethanol Production May 02, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Summer E15 Ethanol Approved + US Warmup May 01, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

BLOODBATH - Why Did Corn Prices Collapse on Thursday?! Apr 28, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Brazilian Farmers to Plant 112 MILLION Acres of Soybeans Apr 27, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Futures Hold KEY Chart Support- Bullish??? Apr 26, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China CANCELS US Corn Purchases - Buying Spree Over?? Apr 25, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Imports Brazilian Soybeans - BEARISH?? Apr 24, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

FRIDAY GRAIN SHOW: POOR Chinese Soy Crush Margins Apr 21, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Putin Claims Ukrainian Grain + Kansas Rain Event?? Apr 20, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Spreads are STRONG Apr 19, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Winter Wheat FREEZE Event??? Apr 18, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

MORE April Snow - US Corn Planting to Slow Apr 17, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Biden EV Plan - Ethanol KILLER?? (Corn Demand) Apr 14, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net: www.agmarket.net

Headline Inflation Declines AGAIN - Bullish Commodity Prices?? Apr 13, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

One Year After the Invasion: TOO MUCH Ukrainian Grain?? Apr 12, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

How Much CORN Will Be Planted This Week?? Apr 11, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

RECORD Renewable Diesel Production (Soybean Demand - Crush) Apr 10, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Is the Weather Forecast BEARISH? (Corn/Soybean Prices) Apr 06, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net: www.agmarket.net

Reduced Argentina Meal Exports + MORE US Snow Apr 05, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

April SNOW Hits Northern US Corn Areas Apr 04, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

MORE Snow in the Northern US? + Crude Rally Apr 03, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

REPORT DAY! + ADM to Leave Russia?? Mar 31, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Why Are Western Grain Companies EXITING Russia?? Mar 30, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

COLD Spring in the North - Cargill Ceases Russian Grain Exports Mar 29, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Will Russia Restrict Wheat Exports? Chatter Continues Mar 28, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Will US Corn Acreage DECLINE This Year?? Mar 27, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Russia to HALT Wheat Exports?? + Soybean Collapse Mar 24, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net: www.agmarket.net

Wheat Prices Weigh on Corn, More Chinese Corn Business Mar 23, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Soybean Prices COLLAPSE, Funds Net Short Corn Mar 22, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

HALF of the Kansas Wheat Crop Rated Poor / Very Poor Mar 21, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Deal Extended (Probably) + Bank Issues Mar 20, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China Corn HAT TRICK - 76 MILLION Bushels in 3 Days Mar 17, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net: www.agmarket.net

China Buys MORE US Corn - 50 MILLION Bushels in 2 Days Mar 16, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China is BACK - Big US Corn Purchase Mar 15, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

SNOW in the Northern US - Planting Issue?? Mar 14, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Government to the Rescue! Financial Markets Dodge a Bullet Mar 13, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn and Wheat Prices Collapse. WHY?? Mar 10, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

CHINA Wants The Grain Deal Renewed - Wheat Trades 18-Month Lows Mar 09, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Ukraine Corn Planting Begins - BIG Acreage Decline Expected Mar 08, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

"A Meal Rally is a Real Rally" (Soybean Market) Mar 07, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US to Lose MORE Chinese Corn Business Mar 06, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Argentina Soybean DISASTER - Half of Production Lost?? Mar 03, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net: www.agmarket.net

US/China Trade War - Part 2?? (Trump Proposal) Mar 02, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Trump proposal mentioned in the video: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/videos/agenda47-president-trumps-new-trade-plan-to-protect-american-workers

Are The Funds SELLING Corn and Soybeans?? Mar 01, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Wheat Futures COLLAPSE, 17-Month Lows! Feb 28, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China Has Doubts About Taiwan + Dropping Fertilizer Prices Feb 27, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Why Did Corn Futures COLLAPSE on Thursday? Feb 24, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net: www.agmarket.net

Ukraine is Worried About the Grain Deal + Mad Cow in Brazil Feb 23, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Tensions Build: EAST vs. WEST Feb 22, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Argentina Frost Event?? Soybeans GAP Higher Feb 21, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Summer FROST in Argentina?? w/ Matt Bennett Feb 17, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net: www.agmarket.net

BIRD FLU in South America - Demand Problem?? Feb 16, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Ukraine Grain Exports Down Sharply - ESCALATION This Spring? Feb 15, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Mexico Scraps Plan to Ban GMO Corn Imports Feb 14, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

ALIENS: Do They Buy Soybeans?? Feb 13, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

When Will The US Drought Matter??? (Corn/Soybeans/Wheat) Feb 10, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net: www.agmarket.net

Brazil Planting Delays: The Next BULL Story?? (Corn Market) Feb 09, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Biden "TAUNTS" China in State of the Union Speech Feb 08, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Is Corn WINNING The US Acreage Battle?? Feb 07, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

TENSIONS: US Shoots Down Chinese Spy Balloon Feb 06, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China is BACK - US Corn Export Sales Feb 03, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net: www.agmarket.net

USDA Argentina Office SLASHES Soybean Crop Estimate Feb 02, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China's Reopening = More Inflation?? Feb 01, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

USDA is WRONG About Soybean Demand Jan 31, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Will Fund Traders Cover Their WHEAT Shorts?? Jan 30, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Solid Week of Export Sales + Weather Jan 27, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net: https://www.agmarket.net/

FINALLY: US Corn Sales Improve Jan 26, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net - www.agmarket.net

How Many CORN Acres will US Farmers Plant? Jan 25, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Accuses China of Aiding Russian War Effort Jan 24, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Soybean Futures GAP Lower on Argentina Rains Jan 23, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Argentina Rains + Early US Acreage Estimates Jan 20, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China is Importing Less Corn Jan 19, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

SOY SURGE: Fresh 7-Month Highs Jan 18, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China's Population DECLINES - Bearish Grain Demand?? Jan 17, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

USDA Jokers Trick the Trade w/ Brian Splitt Jan 13, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

"Worst Drought in 60 Years" - Argentina Crop Estimates SLASHED Jan 12, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Brazil Ships Corn to China - BIG Problem for the US?? Jan 11, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Record Brazil Soybean Exports - BEARISH?? Jan 10, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

"A Meal Rally is a Real Rally" (Soybean Market) Jan 09, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Drier Argentina Forecast + Ethanol Production COLLAPSES w/ Brian Splitt Jan 06, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net Nashville Conference: www.agmarket.net

RAINS Return to Argentina Next Week Jan 05, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Demand for US Corn is BAD Jan 04, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Soybeans GAIN $1.90/bu in 2022 + Argentina Weather Jan 03, 2023

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Soybeans FILL THE GAP w/ Matt Bennett Dec 30, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

HUGE Russian Wheat Crop + US Home Sales COLLAPSE Dec 29, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Heat Wave + $15 SOYBEANS Dec 28, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

CHINA: Taiwan Tensions vs. Re-Opening (Grain Demand??) Dec 27, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Commodity EXODUS + Freezing Temps w/ Brian Splitt Dec 23, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
AgMarket.Net Meeting in Nashville: https://info.agmarket.net/winter-conference-2023

Black Sea War - Could It Rally Grains AGAIN?? Dec 22, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

WINTERKILL: Sub-Zero Temps to Damage US Wheat Crop Dec 21, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China's "Botched" Healthy Policy - Grain Demand?? Dec 20, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

World's BEST Oil Trader?? Dec 19, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Goldman Predicts Commodity Rally + NEW CONTRIBUTORS Dec 16, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Visit https://www.agmarket.net/ for more information from Brian Splitt and Matt Bennett!

Cheaper FERTILIZER? Russian Ammonia Exports Could Resume Dec 15, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Dollar Collapses, Bullish GRAINS?? Dec 14, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Brazil Soybean Planting Nearly Complete - RAINS! Dec 13, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Funds LIQUIDATE Corn Positions Dec 12, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Soybean RALLY - Futures Approach 3-Month Highs Dec 09, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Crude Prices Plunge - Is CORN in Trouble? Dec 08, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Argentina is on FIRE - Soybeans Rally Dec 07, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Global BIOFUEL DEMAND to Increase 22% by 2027 - IEA Dec 06, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Rains Boost Brazilian Crop Potential (Soybean Market) Dec 05, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Pro Analyst Discusses EPA & Soy Crush Expansion Dec 03, 2022

Pete Meyer from S&P Global joins Joe to discuss this week's EPA news and the US soybean crush expansion.
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Soybean Prices COLLAPSE on Biofuel News Dec 02, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Did the EPA Just KILL the Soy Crush Expansion?? (Special Episode) Dec 01, 2022

Paul Winters of Clean Fuels Alliance America joins Joe to discuss today's EPA proposals.
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Widespread RAINS to Hit Brazilian Soybean Areas Dec 01, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Congress Moves to Prevent Rail Strike Nov 30, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Corn Exports Struggle Nov 29, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Will BEARISH Headlines Kill the Soybean Market?? Nov 28, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Mexico Can't Quit Yellow No. 2 (GMO Corn) Nov 23, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Rail Union Votes DOWN Deal Nov 22, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Rains to Hit Brazil - Soybean Market to Struggle?? Nov 21, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Rail Strike in Early December?? Grain Movement at Risk? Nov 18, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Black Sea Grain Deal EXTENDED Nov 17, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Why Would "WW3" Rally the Grain Markets?? Nov 16, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Rains Headed for Brazil, Soybean Market to Struggle?? Nov 15, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China "Refines" Health Policy + Biden/Xi Meeting Nov 14, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

600 MILLIONS Bushels of Corn Demand Lost? Mexico Sticks to its Guns Nov 10, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

More PORTS? Extension of Black Sea Grain Deal Nov 09, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Larger US Corn Plantings in 2023 - USDA Nov 08, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China Dismisses Health Policy Rumors Nov 07, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

RAIN! Mississippi River Levels to Rise Nov 04, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Will China STOP Buying US Corn?? Nov 03, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

They're BACK - Grain Deal to Resume - Markets Collapse Nov 02, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Brazil Protests + Black Sea Grain Shipments Nov 01, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Russia EXITS Grain Deal; Wheat Prices SURGE Oct 31, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

United States to LOSE a Huge Corn Buyer? Oct 28, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Deal = LEVERAGE Oct 27, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

"Strong Crush Margins to Offset River Issues" - ADM CEO Oct 26, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

RAINS Fall Over the Mississippi River Valley Oct 25, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Black Sea Escalation - NO Grain Rally?? Oct 24, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

BIG Week of Soybean Export Sales Oct 21, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Shipping Deal at Risk AGAIN?? Oct 20, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

MONSTER Brazilian Soybean Crop Expected Oct 19, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

RECORD-LOW Levels on the Mississippi River Oct 18, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain LAUNDERING in the Black Sea?? Oct 17, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Will Russia END the Ukraine Grain Deal?? Oct 14, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

SURPRISE: Lower US Soybean Production Oct 13, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Food Shortage LIE?? Russia Sits on Massive Grain Stockpile Oct 12, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Rail Strike BACK ON?? - More Missiles Overseas Oct 11, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

GRAIN RALLY - "Biggest Barrage of Attacks Since Invasion" Oct 10, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Biden - "...prospect of Armageddon" (Nuclear Threat) Oct 07, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Chinese Soybean Imports LOWEST Since 2020?? Oct 06, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Black Sea Tensions: Official Annexation + NUCLEAR Train?? Oct 05, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Dry Weather - Good for Harvest, BAD for River Levels Oct 04, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

USDA Clown Show Oct 03, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Farmers RIPPED OFF? Pesticide Price-Fixing Scheme Sep 30, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

London Bridge is Falling Down - BOE Rescues Markets Sep 29, 2022

Today is THURSDAY, not Wednesday.
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Vote Paves Way for Annexation - Tensions Rise Sep 28, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

98% Chance of RECESSION? Sep 27, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Will RECESSION Kill The Grain Markets? Sep 26, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Annexation Voting Begins + Russia's Monster Wheat Crop Sep 23, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

DROUGHT: Argentina to Lose Corn Acres Sep 22, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

GRAIN RALLY: Black Sea Tensions Escalate Sep 21, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Corn Harvest Accelerates Sep 20, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Biden Fuels China/Taiwan Fire Sep 19, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Another TRADE WAR?? (Corn/Soybeans) Sep 16, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

CRISIS AVERTED: White House Brokers Rail Deal Sep 15, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

RAILROADED: Some Grain Shipments to Stop TOMORROW?? Sep 14, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Government SLASHES Soybean Crop Estimate Sep 13, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Rail Strike to Stall Grain Movement!? USDA Today Sep 12, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

VOLATILITY EXPECTED! Traders Prepare for USDA Report Sep 09, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Vlad's Grain Rally FAILS Sep 08, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Will Putin CANCEL the Ukraine Grain Deal?? Sep 07, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Argentina's "SOY Peso" Sep 06, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

How Big (or small) is the US Corn Crop? Sep 02, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

MISSING IN ACTION: Where is USDA?? Sep 01, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Taiwan Fires on Chinese Drones - Early '23 Acreage Estimates Aug 31, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Ratings Decline AGAIN - Canadian Wheat Crop Rebounds Aug 30, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

How BULLISH was the Crop Tour?? (Corn Market) Aug 29, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Ukraine Wheat Production Falls 40% - IA/MN Tour Results Aug 26, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

"Looming Corn SHORTAGE" Aug 25, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Prices SURGE- Why? Aug 24, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

CROP TOUR WEEK - United Nations to HELP Russia?? Aug 22, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

ND/MN/IA Rains - Wheat Under Pressure Aug 19, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Ukraine Ships More Grain - Wheat Prices COLLAPSE Aug 18, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

FOOD SHORTAGE LIE: Russia Can't Export Record Wheat Crop Aug 17, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

MORE China/Taiwan Problems Aug 16, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

RECORD US Soybean Yield: Right or Wrong? Aug 15, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

USDA Today, More Inflation Data Aug 12, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Inflation is OVER; Slightly Wetter Forecast Aug 11, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Dry Forecast, HEAT in the West Aug 10, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Corn Conditions FALL Sharply - Worst Since 2019 Aug 09, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

HEAVY Weekend Rains (in some areas) Aug 08, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

FANCY NANCY: China Sanctions Pelosi Aug 05, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

STRUGGLE BUS: Why Can't Soybeans Rally? Aug 04, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Lower US Corn/Soybean Yield Estimates Aug 03, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Pelosi to Visit Taiwan, China is NOT Happy Aug 02, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

1st Grain Vessel Leaves Ukrainian Port! Aug 01, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Inflation Reduction Act - BULLISH SOYBEANS? Jul 29, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

DOME OF DOOM Returns in August - HOT AND DRY Jul 28, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

HOT/DRY August Forecast + Fed Day Jul 27, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Crop Ratings DOWN, Grain Markets UP Jul 26, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Russia Strikes Ukraine Ports HOURS After Grain Deal Signed Jul 25, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

NEW LOWS: Recession Fears Pressure Corn & Soybeans Jul 22, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

RUMOR MILL: China to Buy MORE US Soybeans? Jul 21, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

HEAT WAVE Continues Jul 20, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Fertilizer Price Relief? US Drops Russian Tariffs Jul 19, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Weather: Weekend Rains vs. Dry Forecast Jul 18, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Wheat Export Sales SURGE Jul 15, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Red Hot Inflation + Red Hot Temperatures Jul 14, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Commodity Liquidation Continues; Recession Chatter Builds Jul 13, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Wetter Forecast + KING Dollar Jul 12, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

CROP SCARE Event (Corn/Soybeans) Jul 11, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

DROUGHT Expands in US Corn/Soybean Areas Jul 08, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Thursday Morning Grain Bounce Jul 07, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Commodity Collapse, Derecho in SD/MN/IA Jul 06, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Weekend Rains + Recession Fears Jul 05, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Soybean Market FAILS Despite Bullish USDA Report Jul 01, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Is Russia Shipping STOLEN Ukrainian Grain?? Jun 30, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Is the "Inflation Trade" Unwinding? (Corn/Soybeans/Wheat) Jun 29, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Crop Ratings Decline - Turnaround Tuesday??? Jun 28, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Unexpected Weekend Rains, Corn Market Trades Lower Jun 27, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

G7 Countries to Waive Biofuel Mandates??? Jun 24, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grains COLLAPSE: Weather Shift + Recession Risk Jun 23, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Heat to Subside; Corn Belt Rains Lacking Jun 22, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Cooler Temps On The Way Jun 21, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Corn Acres to RISE vs. March Intentions?? Jun 17, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Corn Belt: Hot and Dry Jun 16, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

THREE Ukraine Wheat Crops Impacted by War, Biden to Build Silos?? Jun 15, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Stocks Enter BEAR MARKET Territory - Fed to Hike Rates Jun 14, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Could the Fed KILL the Grain Markets? INFLATION!! Jun 13, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

"Dome of Doom" - Will It Stick Around??? Jun 10, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Gasoline Demand STRONG Despite Record-High Prices Jun 09, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Ukraine Grain Exports "Reasonable" - De-Mining to Take 6 Months! Jun 08, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Belt HEAT WAVE Next Week Jun 07, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

"Extortion Diplomacy" - Russia/Western Tensions Escalate, Grains Rally Jun 06, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Crop Drought is Being ERASED Jun 03, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Ukraine Wheat Production to Decline 42% Jun 02, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Why Did Grains COLLAPSE on Tuesday? Jun 01, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Planting Effectively DONE in ND/SD??? May 31, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Food = Leverage, Putin Holds Grain Hostage May 27, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Russia's Grain BLACKMAIL May 26, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China/Brazil Strike Corn Deal: US Exports to Suffer? May 25, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Acreage LOSS Imminent in the North?? May 24, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Ukraine Seeks Corridors for Grain Exports May 23, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Russia Dismisses Calls to Allow Ukraine Grain Exports May 20, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

RISK OFF! Stock Market Under Pressure, Grains Next?? May 19, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal?? United Nations Makes an Attempt May 18, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Corn Planting Accelerates May 17, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Wheat LIMIT-UP...India Bans Exports May 16, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

USDA: Corn Yield "Lowered to Reflect the Slow Pace of Planting" May 13, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Biden Visits IL Farm, Announces New Measures May 12, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Less Corn Acres? Prevent Plant? May 11, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Ukraine Needs to Unblock its Ports May 10, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

90 Degrees in MINNESOTA this Week May 09, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

MORE Wheat Problems - France in Trouble May 06, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

90 DEGREES in Iowa Next Week May 05, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Big Warm-Up for US Corn Belt Expected May 04, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

MORE Global Wheat Problems May 03, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Summer E-15 Sales Begin This Week May 02, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Joe Biden Will Pay You to Double-Crop Apr 29, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Brazil's Corn Crop is Shrinking Apr 28, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

The Corn Belt is Dry! (for one day) Apr 27, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Worst Wheat Ratings Since 1989; Slow Corn Planting Apr 26, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Drier US Corn Belt This Week - Planting?? Apr 25, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Russian Wheat Exports to INCREASE? Apr 22, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Is Corn "Buying Back" Acres? Apr 21, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Email Shay for a copy of the tool: shay@agviewsolutions.com

China Plans BIG Increase to Soybean Production Apr 21, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Planting Delays - Big Deal? Apr 20, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

SLOW Start to US Corn Planting Apr 19, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Ukrainian Acreage to Decline by Only 17%? Apr 18, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Putin's Real Price Hike: WHEAT Apr 14, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Biden Plans Summer E-15 Ethanol Sales Apr 13, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

COLD Start to the US Growing Season Apr 12, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Corn Market: Fresh Contract Highs Apr 11, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Global Food Prices SMASH Previous Records Apr 08, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

US Corn Belt: Cool and Wet Apr 07, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

500 Million Bushels of Corn STUCK in Ukraine Apr 06, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Is the US Wheat Crop in Trouble?? Apr 05, 2022

Initial US winter wheat ratings were the 2nd worst on record, seasonally.
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Russia Strikes Key Ukrainian Port Apr 04, 2022

Russian missiles struck facilities near the Odessa port over the weekend.
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

USDA: Farmers to Slash Corn Plantings Apr 01, 2022

US farmers are slated to plant more soybeans than corn for only the 3rd time ever.
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Russia Targets Ukraine's Farms Mar 31, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Potential Russian Withdrawal Rattles Markets Mar 30, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Corn Plantings to Decline? Mar 29, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China Lockdowns: New Demand Risk? Mar 28, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

US Drought Lingers, Some Relief Noted for Winter Wheat Mar 25, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

US Farmers to Plant Conservation Acres? Mar 24, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Ukraine's Spring Acres to be Cut by HALF Mar 23, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

NEW HIGHS for December Corn Futures Mar 21, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

RECORD Chinese Soybean Imports? Mar 18, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Relief for Drought-Stricken US Winter Wheat Areas Mar 17, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

China's Virus Mess Mar 16, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Brazilian Corn Planting Nearly Complete Mar 15, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Russian Wheat Exports Slowly Resume Mar 14, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

20% Inflation Hits US Corn Growers Mar 11, 2022

Chris Barron from AgView Solutions joins Joe to discuss 2022 corn and soybean budgets.
AgView Solutions: www.agviewsolutions.com
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Shay @ AgView Solutions: agronguy@gmail.com
#corn #inflation #farming

EXCELLENT Demand for US Corn & Soybeans Mar 11, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Russia/Ukraine Talks Fail; Invasion Enters 3rd Week Mar 10, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Russian / Western Tensions Escalate Mar 09, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Wheat is a Meme Stock Mar 08, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Wheat Prices Gain 40% in ONE WEEK Mar 07, 2022

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Cash Markets Separate from Futures (Corn & Wheat) Mar 04, 2022

Checkout Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Wheat and Crude Oil Surge as Russian Invasion Continues Mar 03, 2022

Fresh highs in wheat and crude AGAIN on Thursday!

Wheat Trades 14-Year Highs, Russian Invasion Continues Mar 02, 2022