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The Return of Inflation—and the Rethinking of Monetary Policy? Sep 05, 2018

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Ever since the financial crisis ended, monetary policy has been plagued by a central mystery: Why has inflation been so low? While unemployment decreased steadily and growth picked up, inflation consistently undershot the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal of 2 percent. Until this May, that is. Recent data revealed that, for the first time in six years, inflation was on target. Economists rejoiced, relieved that the economy was—finally—behaving the way their models predicted. Yet there is a nagging sense that though inflation has finally returned, the mystery has not yet been solved. If it took so long to hit 2 percent, is that the appropriate target in the first place? Is the current framework of our monetary policy due for a reckoning?

The Sunni-Shia Divide: Redrawing the Map of the Middle East? Jun 25, 2018

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Tensions between Islam’s two main religious sects—Sunni and Shia—are spiraling out of control and threaten to redraw the map of the Middle East. At the epicenter of the divide are the predominantly Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran, who are considered to be fueling today’s conflicts through proxy militias in Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. Sectarian tensions have further provided a fertile ground for terrorist networks such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda to flourish and spread. How is the Sunni-Shia divide driving proxy wars, fostering terrorist networks, and expanding the humanitarian crisis in the region? Are religious differences in the Middle East being politicized in a fight for regional hegemony? Can the region break the cycles of sectarian violence that shaped its history?

Trump, America First, and the World Order America Created Jun 21, 2018

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With America First, the Trump administration is paving the way for a new global order - or perhaps a new global disorder. Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords, the downgrading of security guarantees, and protectionist trade policies, are just a few of the actions evidencing an abandonment of multilateralism and global leadership by the United States. This disengagement is creating a void for other nations and ideologies to fill, at a moment when populist movements and external subversion pose growing threats to democratic institutions across the West. What will putting America first mean for the nation’s long-term security and prosperity? If the US will not defend the international rules and institutions it created, what sort of global order will take their place?

Waging Peace: How America Can Avoid War Jun 19, 2018

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Avoiding war, while securing nation’s vast global interests, is a perennial challenge for any United States president. This is especially true in today’s fraught international climate, when there are no shortage of flash points that could rapidly draw the nation into military conflict. But throughout history forward-looking statesmen like FDR, Gorbachev, Rabin, and Walesa – leaders who anticipated change and were willing to build alliances and engage with adversaries – were able to promote peace under testing circumstances. What would such a strategy of preventive engagement look like for the United States today? And what are the risks of such an approach to international relations?

Urban Violence in the Americas Jun 14, 2018

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The Americas are home to 47 of the world’s 50 most violent cities. Cities throughout the United States, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia have long been studying the complexity of factors driving the violence and identifying effective interventions to reduce homicide rates. Cities are also increasingly relying on evidence-based research and evaluation to inform policies and actions. What can cities throughout the Americas learn from each other? Can strategies that work in one city be applied to other contexts? Would a transnational agenda to address urban violence in the region be sustainable? This event is held in partnership with the University of Chicago’s Crime Lab and USAID and made possible with the support of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.

The Work Ahead: Machines, Skills, and US Leadership in the Twenty-First Century May 30, 2018

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The industrial revolution defined the last century and a half, and now we find ourselves in the midst of another paradigmatic transformation in the nature of work. Automation, artificial intelligence, and fierce global competition are changing the landscape for workers and companies faster than ever before. A new Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) report analyzes what the United States faces in developing new work opportunities, aligning education with job demands, and ensuring greater economic security. What does it take to develop a highly skilled and adaptable workforce? How can we compete with countries that have a stronger tradition of apprenticeship, and those who are more nimble in prioritizing and implementing key technologies?

April 20, 2018 Fascism: A Warning May 24, 2018

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The 20th century was defined by the clash between democracy and fascism, a struggle that created uncertainty about the survival of human freedom and left millions dead. Given the horrors of that experience, one might expect the world to reject the spiritual successors to Hitler and Mussolini should they arise in our era. In Fascism: A Warning, Madeleine Albright draws on her experiences as a child in war-torn Europe and her distinguished career as a diplomat to question that assumption. Fascism, as Albright shows, not only endured through the 20th century but now presents a more virulent threat to peace and justice than at any time since the end of World War II. Is the momentum toward democracy that swept the world when the Berlin Wall fell going into reverse? How are economic, technological, and cultural factors playing a role in empowering the political extremes? Written by someone who has not only studied history but helped to shape it, Fascism: A Warning, is a book for our times that is relevant to all times. The book will be available for sale and signing from The Book Cellar following the program.

April 18, 2018 Big Tech: The Return of Monopolies? May 24, 2018

Show notes

Not so long ago, Silicon Valley was America’s pride and joy. Google, Facebook, and Apple represented the best of America—our drive to innovate, to dare, to dream. But the winds have decidedly shifted in the last year or two, as Big Tech’s enormous wealth and power have become apparent. The numbers are startling: together, Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, and Amazon have a market value of $3.5 trillion. They also dominate their respective markets: eighty percent of the world’s searches are done on Google, seventy-seven percent of mobile social media occurs on Facebook, and Amazon has cornered the e-book market—and reached its tentacles into much else besides. Then there’s the question of Big Tech’s influence on our democracy, as the continuing controversy over Facebook’s role in the 2016 election demonstrates. Has Big Tech taken on monopolistic tendencies, stifling competition and innovation? Are these tech darlings big enough to necessitate increased regulation or perhaps even antitrust action? Is it time to break up Big Tech?

Gentrification: The Good, the Bad, and the Hipsters May 23, 2018

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Where do we stand on the now-familiar and paradoxical narrative surrounding gentrification? While high end development booms have pushed out locals and increased prices in neighborhoods like Pilsen, Brooklyn, and London’s Elephant and Castle, gentrification also provides new economic opportunities. And despite many pointing the finger at young creatives and professionals as drivers of gentrification—introducing a tsunami of overpriced coffee shops, condos, and corporate chains—new trends indicate that they are also being priced out. What are the long-term effects of gentrification on communities, and is urban revitalization possible without it? Are young people causing gentrification, or have they also been disproportionately affected by an unaffordable housing market, growing rent rates, and overpriced grocery stores? SPEAKERS: Ghian Foreman, Executive Director, Greater Southwest Development Corporation; Karl Friedhoff, Fellow, Public Opinion and Asia Policy; Marisa Novara, Vice President, Metropolitan Planning Council; Tim Swanson, Chief Design Officer, Skender. Moderated by Taylor Marr.

A Honeymoon that Never Was: The Chilly State of US-Russia Relations May 22, 2018

Show notes

According to a recent Council survey, 46 percent of Russians and 62 percent of Americans thought the US leadership change would herald an era of warmth, camaraderie, and collaboration. Though the new administration is now well-into its second year, the relationship has barely shifted towards lukewarm. Both countries’ national security documents continue listing the other as an enemy, and government officials on each side diagnose the state of affairs an “all-time low” since the Cold War. With renewed sanctions and collusion-related indictments dominating the news cycle, what lies in store for the future of the Trump-Putin relationship? While wrought in opposition and disagreement, what can history teach us about the necessity of cooperation and mutual understanding between the two nations? SPEAKERS: Ivo H. Daalder, President, Chicago Council on Global Affairs; Alina Polyakova, David M. Rubenstein Fellow—Foreign Policy Program, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings Institution; Strobe Talbott, Distinguished Visitor, Buffett Institute for Global Studies; Distinguished Fellow in Residence, Brookings Institution. Moderated by Jordan Gans-Morse.

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