Future Projection

Latest Episodes:

Episode 89: Prospect Promotions And Big Arms To Watch May 23, 2024

Show notes

Ben and Carlos chat about college conference tournaments and briefly get into the dreadful track record of first round first basemen in recent years. Will that impact how teams view players like Nick Kurtz and Jac Caglianone? The two talk about the SEC’s decision to roll out and experiment with a new double first base bag at the SEC tournament and then get into more serious business of prospect promotions.

There are a number of intriguing players moving up the minor league ladder including: Red Sox RHP Luis Perales, D-backs 1B Deyvison De Los Santos, Guardians LHP Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson, Cardinals LHP Quinn Mathews, White Sox LHP Noah Schultz, White Sox SS Jacob Gonzalez and Mets RHP/OF Nolan McLean.

After that Ben points out a few prospects who he thinks should be getting more hype than they are currently receiving—one an outfielder with the Orioles and the other a Guardians middle infield prospect.

At the close of the show Carlos asks Ben if he’d rather have Bobby Witt Jr. or Gunnar Henderson moving forward and the two briefly talk about the value of switch hitting and whether or not hitters should simply focus on their best sides.

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Time Stamps

(0:00) College conference tournaments

(5:00) The scary first round 1B track record

(10:00) Two bags at first base?

(16:45) Luis Perales

(22:00) Deyvison De Los Santos

(29:00) Matt Wilkinson

(35:00) Quinn Mathews

(42:30) Noah Schultz

(51:00) Jacob Gonzalez

(58:00) Nolan McLean

(1:02:00) Reggie Crawford

(1:06:20) Dylan Beavers

(1:11:00) Angel Genao

(1:15:00) Bobby Witt Jr. vs. Gunnar Henderson

(1:23:00) Switch hitting questions

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Do you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: futureprojection@baseballamerica.com

Ben's Twitter: @BenBadler

Carlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazo

Baseball America Website

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See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 88: Bring On The Bat Tracking Data May 17, 2024

Show notes

Ben and Carlos spend a lot of time talking through Baseball Savant’s new bat tracking data and how the new information could inform or change how we evaluate players and prospects. The two talk about the importance of bat speed in general, why length of swing is important, think through bat speed vs. bat acceleration and also wonder about the complications that could arise with how bat length is calculated based on contact points.

The two talk about how this could further inform aging curves and give more precise data about how and when players are aging, think through different types of swing distributions this data sheds light on and Ben mentions how important bat paths are and why we shouldn’t lose sight of that element.

The two think through the various applications of this data for prospects and then move into some prospect-specific talk, starting with a pair of players to know for the upcoming 2025 international signing class: shortstop Elian Peña (linked to the Mets) and shortstop Cristopher Polanco (linked to the Blue Jays).

After that, the two talk through a number of recent top 100 additions including Mariners prospects Tyler Locklear and Jonny Farmelo, Phillies shortstop Starlyn Caba, Rockies outfielder Zac Veen and Brewers lefthander Robert Gasser. Hot performers like Red Sox shortstop Marcelo Mayer, Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews, Mariners shortstop Felnin Celesten and Twins righthander Zebby Matthews are also mentioned.

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Time Stamps

(0:00) New bat speed data

(5:30) Swing length as exciting as bat speed

(10:00) Bat speed vs. acceleration

(15:00) How swing length is measured

(25:00) Bat speed aging curves

(27:30) Swing distributions

(31:00) The importance of bat paths

(37:00) Applications for prospects

(41:00) Elian Peña

(46:00) Cristopher Polanco

(50:00) International pitching development

(55:00) Tyler Locklear

(58:00) Starlyn Caba

(1:04:00) Zac Veen, Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony

(1:11:00) Robert Gasser

(1:15:00) Jonny Farmelo

(1:19:00) Felnin Celesten

(1:21:00) Dylan Crews

(1:23:00) Zebby Matthews

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Do you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: futureprojection@baseballamerica.com

Ben's Twitter: @BenBadler

Carlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazo

Baseball America Website

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Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 87: Breaking Down Our First 2024 Top 100 Update May 09, 2024

Show notes

Ben and Carlos hop on the show to primarily break down the big movers on our first in-season Top 100 MLB Prospects update of the 2024 season. Before jumping into that, the two marvel at Georgia slugger Charlie Condon’s continued home run pace and wonder whether or not teams should start giving him the Barry Bonds treatment—if not, will he get to the 40-homer mark?

Carlos asks Ben about this year’s Top 100 update process and the challenges of that so early in the season and the two then get into some of the big movers, including two pitchers trending down: Blue Jays lefthander Ricky Tiedemann and Padres righthander Dylan Lesko.

Next, the two talk about a few up-arrow pitchers who are doing big things at the big league level, including Mets righthander Christian Scott and Pirates righthander Jared Jones. That leads to a discussion about the Pirates farm system depth with arms and pitching strategy in general, as well as a bit more talk about Paul Skenes.

Next, they get into a few more hitters who are on the rise or showing productive seasons so far in 2024 including: Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing, Mariners outfielder Lazaro Montes and A’s shortstop Jacob Wilson. That turns into a conversation about the Padres-Marlins Luis Arraez trade and the two disagree over whether or not the package was a compelling return for a player like Arraez.

Finally, talk turns to power-hitting top prospects Junior Caminero, James Wood and Dylan Crews and how they’re viewing each of the three and why they aren’t too worried about Woods’ current lack of home run production.

The show closes with a mailbag segment, which includes questions about a Rays international prospect with size and power, a draft signing bonus logistics question, the differences between command and control and a question about lefthanders in the 2025 draft class.

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Time Stamps

(1:30) Charlie Condon

(6:45) New Top 100 update

(10:40) Ricky Tiedemann and Dylan Lesko

(16:30) Christian Scott

(20:30) Jared Jones

(25:00) Pirates pitching strategy

(34:00) Dalton Rushing

(39:00) Lazaro Montes

(46:00) Jacob Wilson

(52:00) Luis Arraez Trade

(1:06:00) Junior Caminero, James Wood & Dylan Crews

(1:16:00) Mailbag

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Do you have a question you want us to answer?

Email us: futureprojection@baseballamerica.com

Ben's Twitter: @BenBadler

Carlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazo

Baseball America Website

Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 86: Prospects Trending Up, Prospects Trending Down Apr 25, 2024

Show notes

Ben and Carlos talk about the new draft rankings at Baseball America and briefly touch on the state of the class and how the group is shaping up. Ben brings up the idea of pick trading once again and how that would impact Carlos’s ability to create mock drafts. Ben also talks about how it would be interesting to see teams able to trade domestic draft picks for international draft picks if that is ever implemented—the more freedom for teams to build rosters the better.

Then the two touch on a number of minor league prospects off to hot starts this season including: White Sox lefthander Noah Schultz, Rockies righthander Chase Dollander, Cubs third baseman Matt Shaw, Royals catcher Blake Mitchell and Twins outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez.

After that the two switch gears and talk about some prospects whose starts to the season could be more concerning. Those players include: Yankees shortstop Roderick Arias, Rangers shortstop Sebastian Walcott, Mariners catcher Harry Ford, Blue Jays lefthander Ricky Tiedemann, Padres righthander Dylan Lesko and Braves righthander Hurston Waldrep. In that conversation the two also wonder about the merits of prospect demotions and whether or not they could be beneficial for player development.

Ben has a sleeper righthander to know in the Brewers system, righthander Bishop Letson, and the two talk about his remarkable jump in stuff within just a year of being drafted in the 11th round. That leads to a conversation about teams investing in raw, projectable prospects who take more time to develop and whether or not that sort of player is less common with a 20-round draft and smaller minor league system.

Ben picks Carlos’s brain on the players who could be available for the teams picking outside the top eight range, and how likely or unlikely it is for one of the “big 8” to slip further down the board. What are potential draft scenarios for the Pirates, Nationals, Tigers and Red Sox? The two talk about pitcher attrition and whether or not that makes teams more or less likely to draft pitching prospects in the first place and then get into a listener question about academies in Latin America lying about prospect ages.

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Time Stamps

(0:00) New draft rankings

(13:00) Pick trading

(18:00) International draft trading

(21:00) Noah Schultz

(23:00) Chase Dollander

(27:00) Matt Shaw

(29:30) Blake Mitchell

(34:00) Emmanuel Rodriguez

(40:00) Roderick Arias

(45:30) Sebastian Walcott

(49:00) Thoughts on promotions and demotions

(52:00) Harry Ford

(57:00) Ricky Tiedemann

(1:03:00) Dylan Lesko

(1:08:00) Hurston Waldrep

(1:13:40) Bishop Letson

(1:19:00) Teams investing in “raw” players

(1:23:00) Pirates options at No. 9

(1:33:00) Can anyone slide out of the top eight?

(1:37:00) FSU outfielder James Tibbs

(1:39:00) Are the Red Sox in no man’s land at 12?

(1:46:00) Pitcher attrition and how that impacts decisions to draft arms

(1:52:00) What happens when academies lie about player ages?

–

Do you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: futureprojection@baseballamerica.com

Ben's Twitter: @BenBadler

Carlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazo

Baseball America Website

Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 85: MiLB Prospects Off To Strong Starts In 2024 Apr 18, 2024

Show notes

Ben and Carlos talk through all kinds of early-season performances to start the season, but before getting into minor leaguers they start off with how red hot Michael Busch has been for the Cubs. Does this change our evaluations of the Dodgers-Cubs trade and how have minor leaguers Zyhir Hope and Jackson Ferris been so far in the 2024 season?

After that, the two talk about the odd situation in Florida where the Marlins have sent their best performing pitcher—Max Meyer—back to the minors. Is it service time manipulation or just an odd way to manage a young pitcher's workload? The Marlins slow start to the season also leads to a conversation about the worst teams in the league, the draft lottery and who the favorites are to land a top-three chance for the No. 1 pick in 2025. Sorry, White Sox and A’s fans.

Next, Carlos brings up Bobby Witt Jr. and his scorching start to the 2024 season and Ben counters with CJ Abrams taking a step forward with his hitting. The two then talk about James Wood’s sensational start and debate whether he or Dylan Crews is the prospect to have in Washington’s system. Carlos rants about Dylan Crews skepticism on the internet and the two then move on to lower-level prospects moving and shaking so far this season.

That includes: Phillies infielder Aidan Miller and his swing change; Rockies lefthander Sean Sullivan and his unique pitch profile; Braves righthander Owen Murphy and his lack of premium velocity but strong results; the Rays finding yet another pitching gem with righthander Santiago Suarez; the Orioles “late” find of righthander Moises Chace; early improvements for Reds third baseman Cam Collier; continued offensive dominance from Guardians first baseman Ralphy Velazquez; Jackson Chourio’s younger brother Jaison Chourio, who is also in the Cleveland system; and Cubs shortstop Jefferson Rojas.

The two close the show by talking about split-camp players and why opinions on prospects can vary so widely, how those deltas are handled in scouting departments and the pressures to align opinions with higher ups and/or the “consensus” opinions on a player in the industry.

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Time Stamps

(0:00) Michael Busch

(10:00) Zyhir Hope

(14:00) Jackson Ferris

(18:00) Max Meyer

(26:00) Draft lottery talk

(34:00) Bobby Witt Jr. and CJ Abrams

(42:00) James Wood

(45:00) Dylan Crews vs. James Wood

(53:00) Aidan Miller

(59:30) Sean Sullivan

(1:12:00) Owen Murphy

(1:16:00) Santiago Suarez

(1:21:00) Moises Chace

(1:27:00) Cam Collier

(1:33:00) Ralphy Velazquez

(1:42:00) Jaison Chourio

(1:46:00) Jefferson Rojas

(1:49:00) split camp players and why opinions can vary so much

—

Do you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: futureprojection@baseballamerica.com

Ben's Twitter: @BenBadler

Carlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazo

Baseball America Website

Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 84: (Jackson) Holliday Season & Paul Skenes Domination Apr 11, 2024

Show notes

Carlos and Ben talk about Jackson Holliday’s big league promotion and what to expect of him from the jump with the Orioles. The two debate the validity of jersey retirements but otherwise agree on many of the topics of today’s episode which includes…

The much-talked about pitcher injury epidemic. Velocity and max effort throwing certainly seems like a factor, but what about others like the pitch clock? New pitching development and pitch design? Managing workloads too critically or not critically enough? Changes to youth baseball and the velocity you’re seeing at those levels? What about shoulder injuries?

After that the two move on to the top pitching prospect in baseball, Paul Skenes who made quick work of Triple-A hitters in his first two starts of the season. They talk about how he’s looked and get into another conversation about fastball shape and why it’s not the end all be all for pitchers and also wonder about when he should be promoted to the majors.

Next the two pivot to the 2024 draft class and talk about the barrage of home runs that Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz has hit in the last two weeks. Has he re-entered the 1-1 conversation and how does he stack up against fellow first baseman Jac Caglianone tool-for-tool? That leads into a conversation about the top of the draft class generally, and Ben asks about who the best pitcher in the class is after Chase Burns and Hagen Smith which leads to talk about ECU righthander Trey Yesavage. After that Ben brings up another righthander who might deserve a bit more attention in Vanderbilt righthander Bryce Cunningham.

The two close the podcast with thoughts on Boston’s contract extension of center fielder and shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela.

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Time Stamps

(0:00) Jackson Holliday

(14:00) Retiring numbers

(18:00) The pitcher injury epidemic

(25:00) High school pitchers throwing harder

(33:00) Ben’s thoughts on shoulder injuries

(35:30) Is the pitch clock a factor?

(38:00) Paul Skenes and fastball shape

(49:00) When should Skenes be in the majors?

(55:00) Nick Kurtz’s home run binge

(1:05:00) Nick Kurtz vs. Jac Caglianone

(1:15:00) ECU RHP Trey Yesavage

(1:25:00) Vanderbilt RHP Bryce Cunningham

(1:30:00) The Ceddanne Rafaela contract extension

—

Do you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: futureprojection@baseballamerica.com

Ben's Twitter: @BenBadler

Carlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazo

Baseball America Website

Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 83: Are Charlie Condon And Travis Bazzana Still Somehow Underrated? Apr 05, 2024

Show notes

Ben and Carlos hop on the show to talk about the top of the 2024 draft class and notable minor league prospect assignments.

Before getting into the show the two talk about the news that the A’s will be relocating to Sacramento’s Triple-A stadium after the 2024 season. It’s just the latest of a shocking number of relocation gaffes from the franchise.

After that the two talk about how dynamic both Charlie Condon and Travis Bazzana have been halfway through the college season. Where do their numbers stack up with recent elite college hitters at the top of the class? And can we truly read directly into those numbers given the offensive environment of college baseball in 2024? How do the two compare and contrast to elite college prospects like Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford and what holds them back from belonging in the same tier—if they still don’t actually fit there? Where would each rank on the Top 100 Prospects list?

Following that conversation the two talk about minor league names—and assignments—to know. Carlos continues his love of Dylan Lesko and gets excited about his slider development, the two both praise the Mariners’ ability to find and develop impact college arms and the two talk through a number of players including: Reds catcher Alfredo Duno, Dodgers outfielder Josue De Paula, Brewers outfielder Yophery Rodriguez, Angels outfielder Nelson Rada, Rangers shortstop Sebastian Walcott, Reds righthander Rhett Lowder, Braves righthander Hurston Waldrep, Guardians infielder Ralphy Velazquez and more.

The show closes with a listener email asking about how things would change if MLB adopted an NBA draft system where players had to go to college but could leave for pro ball whenever they wanted after that.

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Time Stamps

0:20 A’s to Sacramento Talk

6:20 Charlie Condon’s insane numbers

10:00 College baseball’s offensive environment and how to contextualize for that

16:45 Condon and Travis Bazzana compared to Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford

35:15 Condon/Bazzana compared to recent elite college profiles

40:00 Where Condon/Bazzana would fit on a Top 100 list

54:13 Transition to minor league prospect talk

1:02:05 Jackson Jobe’s brilliance

1:06:00 The Mariners knack for finding and developing college arms

1:13:05 Josue De Paula

1:17:40 Alfredo Duno

1:24:15 Sebastian Walcott

1:29 Hurston Waldrep and Rhett Lowder

1:41:25 If MLB’s draft system was changed to the NBA format

—

Do you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: futureprojection@baseballamerica.com

Ben's Twitter: @BenBadler

Carlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazo

Baseball America Website

Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 82: MLB Predictions & Opening Day Thoughts Mar 29, 2024

Show notes

Happy (day after) Opening Day!

Ben and Carlos hop back on the podcast to talk about Opening Day of the big league season and some of the main storylines of the year. The two talk about their World Series picks and talk through some of the more interesting divisions to keep tabs on then debate the most disappointing offseason in the league. The two also give their thoughts on the Shohei Ohtani-Ippei Mizuhara situation before turning their eyes to the amateur space.

Ben breaks down his recent trip to the Dominican Republic and gives an early preview of upcoming international classes, including Andrew Salas who is projected to sign with the Marlins and the younger brother of Padres catching phenom Ethan Salas.

The two then talk about a defensive spectrum debate that Carlos stumbled upon between second base and right field and give their thoughts on the skills required for both. After that, the two talk through some 2024 draft buzz, including the continued domination of Chase Burns and Hagen Smith, whether or not Brody Brecht’s walk rate is too high for the first round and how we should think through Jac Caglianone as a two-way player, as a hitter and as a pitcher. The two also discuss pop-up players and how teams scout them. How should a team weigh spring performance and looks vs. extended history and track record of a player?

—

Do you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: futureprojection@baseballamerica.com

Ben's Twitter: @BenBadler

Carlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazo

Baseball America Website

Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 81: Should Wyatt Langford & Jackson Holliday Start In The Big Leagues? Mar 13, 2024

Show notes

Ben and Carlos chat about spring training standouts in big league camp, headlined by two players in the very elite tier of baseball prospects who have a case to start the year in the majors: Jackson Holliday and Wyatt Langford. Ben and Carlos talk about the cases for and against those two being pushed aggressively and then the two talk about a number of other spring training performances including Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, Pirates righthander Jared Jones, Cardinals shortstop Thomas Saggese, Padres outfielder and infielder Graham Pauley and Brewers first baseman Wes Clarke, among others.

After that the two discuss a loaded Wake Forest-Duke series from last weekend that Carlos saw in person. The two revisit Chase Burns and talk through just how much he’s elevated his draft stock, plus get in depth on the divergent hitting approaches of Seaver King and Nick Kurtz. The two touch on Jonathan Santucci, Josh Hartle and Michael Massey as well and talk briefly about the top of the draft board.

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Do you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: futureprojection@baseballamerica.com

Ben's Twitter: @BenBadler

Carlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazo

Baseball America Website

Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode 80: Chase Burns, Hagen Smith & Scouting Reliever Risk Mar 01, 2024

Show notes

Ben and Carlos talk about the first two weeks of college baseball action including scorching offensive starts from Georgia’s Charlie Condon and Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana. Are they more in the mix to be the No. 1 pick in a still unsettled draft class? And what are the early changes beyond just strong production?

The two then move on to pitching and break down early-season outings from Arkansas lefthander Hagen Smith and Wake Forest righthander Chase Burns. The two have solid cases as having the best pure stuff from the left and right side respectively, and now they are looking to reinforce their starting profiles and remove some of the reliever risk they entered the spring with. How do Ben and Carlos view the two? Which would they take? How do they view reliever risk in general and which factors are the most concerning: Command? Diversity of stuff? Delivery? Medical history? Durability? Track record?

After that the two talk about a few early spring training performances from players who have impressed including Pirates second baseman Termarr Johnson, Nationals outfielders James Wood and Dylan Crews and Brewers outfielder (or infielder?) Sal Frelick.

The show closes with Ben’s early preview of the 2026 high school draft class, which looks to have both impressive depth of talent and a standout headliner at the top in Texas shortstop Grady Emerson.

–

Do you have a question you want us to answer? Email us: futureprojection@baseballamerica.com

Ben's Twitter: @BenBadler

Carlos's Twitter: @CarlosACollazo

Baseball America Website

Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.