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    Flux Podcasts (Formerly Theory of Change)

    Flux is a progressive podcast platform, with daily content from shows like Theory of Change, The Electorette, and Embrace The Void.

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    Latest Episodes:
    Black Americans want something more from Democrats Feb 12, 2024
    Show notes

    Now that the pretense of a Republican presidential primary is nearly at an end, the second general election matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is beginning to take shape.And while the race features the same candidates as in 2020, the political dynamics are different in several important ways, most prominently that we are no longer in a global pandemic.One other difference this time around is that each of the candidates’ support base seems to have lost some enthusiasm. On the Republican side, a significant percentage of people who voted for Trump seem to be sick of his raging incompetence and foolish statements, while also harboring genuine concerns about his criminal acts to cling to power after he lost in 2020.On the Democratic side, there is also a lot of discontentment with Biden, especially among black Americans. In a December poll sponsored by the Associated Press, only 50% of black adults said they approved of the job Biden was doing as president. For the most part, the Republican party is not yet gaining much support from black Americans so it’s worth pondering what’s going on here. And joining me to discuss all this is Stephen Robinson. He’s a writer and podcaster who does both of those things on his website, Play Typer Guy. The video of this discussion is available. It was recorded on February 1, 2024. The transcript of the audio is below. Because of its length, some podcast apps and email programs may truncate it. Access the episode page to get the complete text.Related Content* Why many black Americans’ conservative and religious fundamentalist viewpoints make them uneasy with Democrats* How the Israel-Gaza war is dividing older black Democrats from younger ones* Former black Republican Ty Ross on why she became a Republican and then finally quit the party* Country music’s continued race problem is a product of the reality that American reactionaries are about Confederate Christianity* Nicki Minaj, Snoop Dogg, and toxic gravitation🔒Cover photo: Clarke SandersFlux is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Audio Chapters0:00 — Introduction06:33 — Democrats' dilemma: A party that must contain the entire political spectrum13:19 — Why polls are not always the best way of measuring public opinion18:29 — The importance of trust in politics25:24 — College education is not the path to political progress31:34 — Democrats need to realize they can't bully voters on Gaza40:00 — Because they don't spend money on advocacy media, sometimes Democrats are blamed for things they didn't do45:35 — Matt Gaetz reveals Republican strategy to use misogyny to market to black and Hispanic men51:35 — Do celebrity endorsements matter?55:02 — How much does Kamala Harris help or hurt Democrats with black Americans?01:03:29 — Why a economic message will never be enough for the leftAudio TranscriptThis is an automatically generated transcript which is provided for convenience purposes onlyMATTHEW SHEFFIELD: And joining me to discuss all this is Stephen Robinson. He is a writer and podcaster who does both of those things on his website, Play Typer Guy, welcome to Theory of Change, Stephen.STEPHEN ROBINSON: Hi Matthew. How are you?SHEFFIELD: Good. All right. Well, so this is I think this is a conversation that I don't see happening a lot in the mainstream media to some extent, wondering especially on, on cable television that, wondering what is going on with black voters and Biden.It's, it's just kind of under the surface and I, think it reflects a dynamic to some degree that in the Democratic party you're [00:03:00] not supposed to talk about what the guys at the top are doing wrong. What's your sense?ROBINSON: That's very much a case of that I've seen a lot. I've seen it. One of the reasons I've kind of gone independent myself, playtyperguy.com, at Substack, my shameless plug, is to sort of write about these issues without particularly related to race without being kind of, oh, no, you're going to make Trump come back to sort of have that Animal Farm reference whenever you would just talk about these issues.And I think talking about an issue doesn't make it worse, nor does ignoring it make it go away. So, One of the issues I think is that when we talk about discontent, I. Amongst any other certain groups of people, particularly like, when there was over particularly Covid lockdowns and then suburban white women [00:04:00] concerned about their kids being taught about racism or books.When we saw a lot of that in Virginia when Glen Youngkin won, those folks are often presented in the media to do the focus groups with them, but not just that more likely someone of that demo is going to be on a mainstream news program presenting that issue. If you look at sort of the black voter base and a lot of the folks and or where that discontent is, aside from some articles that, the folks who make it, and there often aren't a lot of people of color, particularly black people and black women who make it on the mainstream news shows are hardcore Democrats. They're people who argue for the party. And rightly so. because that's their point of view. Even myself, if you were to put me on Meet the Press, I'm going to be like, well, of course, they're going to vote for Biden. Here's why I think he's done a good job.Here's why we catastrophic if Trump won again, were to win. [00:05:00] Yeah. And but a lot of those voices, and as we said, these elections are going to be, this election's going to be won on the margins. They, the, last few have been. They were talking about, what is it, 40,000, 40,000 votes amongst the certain states determined that Biden won in 2020.And then it was actually more narrow than Trump's electoral college vote victory that in the states where he won. So yeah, I mean, obviously we should talk about turnout issues and we should talk about And hoping you can get into that as well, like the sense of the position of the Democratic Party is in now in, in trying to maintain a very large coalition.Especially to the extent that they are, have been for the longest time, wanting to get folks who, and I think you can speak to that, of who were once so white suburban, college educated [00:06:00] people who were once right leaning. We still are, but once voted Republican and said, we're alienated by Trump and MAGA and are now Democrats and so, or inclined to vote for Democrats.And so I think there's been a lot of focus on those group groups, perhaps to the detriment of really listening and doing the outreach with particularly working class non-college educated black voters, black and black men, specifically Latino men.Democrats' dilemma: A party that must contain the entire political spectrumSHEFFIELD: Yeah. And, it's, and it is a really complicated dilemma that Democrats have because the, per the Democratic voting Coalition, the electorate is very different in its inside itself compared to the Republican coalition.So the Republican coalition, overwhelmingly. Christian, overwhelmingly white and now much more rural than ever [00:07:00] before. So there, so a lot of the things that they, the messages that they can give to them, they all intersect perfectly with each other. And so whereas for Democrats, are basically have to contain the entire political spectrum except for, reactionary extremists.And so it's, and this is also true with regard to black Americans, because a lot of black Americans are actually conservatives. But they're not going to vote for the Republican party given its, many decades of history of both, trying to court racist people on the sly, and then now of course openly doing it under Sure.Computer. So it's so trying to figure out, well, what, how do you appeal to black Americans? it's very difficult in some sense. What might work for a, twenty-two year old college student in, in, in New York City is probably very [00:08:00] possibly not going to work for a 7-year-old grandmother in Atlanta, Georgia.ROBINSON: Yeah. And well, that's part of the dilemma. Well, it's been 60 years or will, be this year since the civil Rights Act. And so this idea that there's a permanent sort of connection to the Democratic party and acknowledgement of what the party has done on race issues that black people will have forever is a dangerous, I think, assumption.I think younger black voters are a potential get from Republicans focusing on, again, those working class rule issues. And people will say, well, no, because they Republican party is overtly racist. Yet I think I've argue, my point of view is I find that argument somewhat insulting because you say that I'm from South Carolina, I'm from the rural south, and of course all of my family members are [00:09:00] Democrats, longtime Democrats.But if you were to say to them that, Hey, the argument I'm going to give to you, to my cousin for instance is Republicans are racist, Trump is racist, duh, come vote for me. But to your neighbor on the guy you work with, a white person who's also didn't go to college, also from the rural south, I'm going to have to, I'm going to try to like make an argument on the merits. And also I probably won't overtly state that they're racist. because Democrats don't usually do that. They try to say that like, Republicans, oh, they're for small government. They still, I mean Nancy, Pelosi I would get screamed at when I would write columns saying she shouldn't go around saying that we a strong Republican party.Like what does that mean? When were they, yeah. Useful allies and she's romanticized Reagan in the past and those things. And then, so you say that as if saying okay, well again, for the sake of argument, hey Matthew, you voted for Republicans in the past, you're [00:10:00] or maybe a Republican, but here's how we're going to try to win you over on the issues.because we don't think you're racist and we don't think you're willing voting for racist, but we're going to tell black voters that obviously you don't have that same choice as Matthew. because obviously you're a big dummy if you were to ever consider Like all these other issues that we think most.Is, that's driving most of our good friends across the aisle, as Biden says. And I think that becomes the dangerous sort of, well,SHEFFIELD: it's kind of Yeah. Patronizing basically. Absolutely. In some sense. Yeah. and there is kind of a similar messaging problem with, Hispanic Americans as well, that Democrats generally seem to think that Hispanics and Latinos only care about immigration.That they all care about immigration and it's, and that they want more of it when the reality is that a lot of people in that demographic have nothing to do with the immigration system. Oh, yeah. they're multi-generational family [00:11:00] and don't know anyone in an, who lives in another country.No, Yeah. And you're insulting them to imply that they do that they're not American telling them they're not Americans.ROBINSON: In some ways it's overtly racist because you're sort of saying that they. Without looking at as a class issue, like some folks would say, oh, because American is a class system.It's like, oh, I got here legally, and I don't, I look, as opposed to being like, oh, Trump's rhetoric is going to offend every Latino voter and, we're going to win Florida easily and we're going to win Texas easily. I mean, this was rhetoric in 2016. I'm sure you might have saw some of that, and obviously that did not happen.DeSantis like dominated when he was Ron DeSantis when he ran for a reelection amongst Latino voters, winning previous democratic strongholds because Democrats had been, their support had been eroding. I think what was happening with certain Hispanic voters particularly Latino [00:12:00] men.And working class has sort of. Potentially I said, would be a fear of happening with black voters. If that were to ever happen, that's going to be disastrous. But where, they don't have that long-term connection to the Democratic party of like, you've always been there for us.We'll be there for you. And what happened in 2020 was that it in Texas, Biden was doing very poorly amongst some border towns because of concerns about lockdowns. And I remember a lot of the dialogue from a lot of white liberal pundits during, covid was like, obviously the mitigation factors we, we did, we needed to do.That was my opinion. But the, there was often a sense of. Condescending from, of like, oh, come on, just stop whining. You're just sitting at home in your sweatpants is a wonderful thing. Whereas a lot of people were desperate [00:13:00] and scared, especially if their work was sort of entrepreneurial, which was the case for a lot of Hispanic folks in that area of like, they were desperate and concerned that lockdowns would, they couldn't do their jobs.SHEFFIELD: Yeah. They literally could not work. It was impossible to work. And yeah, no, there is.Why polls are not always the best way of measuring public opinionSHEFFIELD: And a lot of it is that I think the, Democratic party, and this is also true of the Republican party having been, on both sides, that, but the Democrats are more centralized in. The Acela corridor so that New York to D.C, and if you don't live there, then you're not really relevant and they don't want to hear from you.The only extent they want to hear from you is in a public opinion survey. But I can say having been a former pollster that polls can be very bad at, helping you understand public opinion because you have to understand how to ask the question [00:14:00] in a way that has the same meaning for you and for the respondent.And that actually can be very difficult in, a lot of different ways. So especially like when you ask people like about whether they're, their ideological position. So a lot of, black Americans, again, they have, they come from a very, fundamentalist Christian viewpoint.They, they believe the Bible is literally true. And they may think that homosexuality is a sin. And they'll call themselves conservative when you ask them. But then what do you do with that? What can you do with that fact about them? And that's where polling has a problem and how you, why you have to get out there and actually you listen to people like this is one thing that the, Republicans have really well for themselves is besides the fact that right-Wing media is now so huge and has such vast audiences whether it's, Joe Rogan or Daily Wire or [00:15:00] any of these talk radio people.It, it has a, huge audience to, to push the, propaganda out to them. But it also allows kind of a two-way push as well, because, these, especially the local talk radio hosts, they have, people calling in and telling them, this is what I think about Oh yeah. Trump or whatever.And, so you can get a, it's like having a profitable focus group and they've got, hundreds of them. And then, of course website comments are, good for that as well to kind of suss out public opinion in a way that's, that is organic. because like a lot of times people will be like, well we can just do focus groups.But you know, there's a lot of people who won't want to participate in a focus group. And even if they did, it's not a real forum. Like, you sitting around a table with a bunch of strangers being videotaped. Is that a real conversation?ROBINSON: Oh yeah.SHEFFIELD: I don't think it is.ROBINSON: Well, yeah, not at all.And [00:16:00] to what you are saying about that ecosystem I've called it an…

    Full show notes at the publisher

    Today’s disinformation economy was built on the lying techniques of Big Tobacco Feb 05, 2024
    Show notes

    The term disinformation is most commonly associated with the internet and social media posters spreading conspiracy theories, but when you really think about it, disinformation is actually just lying at an industrial scale.While various authoritarian governments have used lying and propaganda forever, the history is crystal-clear: In the United States, the modern-day tactics of lying to the masses were invented in the mid-20th century by huge tobacco companies desperate to stave off federal regulation of their disease-causing products.This is a history worth exploring because all of the disinformation techniques that Big Tobacco used have been subsequently adopted by fossil fuel companies to fight public accountability and then further adopted by Donald Trump into a political marketing program that is essentially a personality cult. Joining me in this episode to talk about the history of disinformation and the tobacco industry is Matthew Rozsa, he is a climate change journalist at Salon.com who’s written about Big Tobacco and propaganda and how its deceptive techniques were later adopted to oppose climate change mitigation policies.The video of this discussion is available. The transcript of the audio follows. The conversation took place January 25, 2024.Related ContentPhilosopher Richard Bett on the history of skepticism and why today’s online know-nothings are practicing a zombie Socratic methodDisinformation researcher Renée DiResta on epistemology and internet content moderationFormer libertarian activist Will Wilkinson on the many commonalities of atheist libertarianism and Christian fundamentalismThe American right is at war with modernity itself and the struggle did not begin with Donald TrumpHow reactionaries invented canceling people while also pretending to believe in free speechAudio Chapters0:00 — Introduction03:00 — The History of Disinformation in the Tobacco Industry06:23 — Manufacturing doubt and building anti-epistemology08:33 — Big Oil and American reactionaries adopted Big Tobacco's disinformation techniques16:50 — How mainstream journalism's "both sides" paradigm facilitates disinformation21:43 — False dilemmas can protect false beliefs 24:36 — Both tobacco and oil companies hid their private research on the harms of their products29:34 — Donald Trump's nonstop cascade of lies is the continuation of this dishonest tradition32:36 — Disinformation addicts mostly cannot be persuaded, so they must be opposedCover image: An advertisement for Camel cigarettes featuring the cartoon character Joe CamelAudio TranscriptThis is a rush transcript that likely contains errors. It is provided for convenience purposes only. Some podcast apps may truncate the text.MATTHEW SHEFFIELD: Thanks for being here today, Matt.MATTHEW ROZSA: Thank you for having me, Matthew.SHEFFIELD: All right. Well, the history that we're going to be talking about here today, I think, is a bit unfamiliar to a lot of people because advertising is kind of boring to everybody.I think, to the extent people know about advertising in the 20th century, they think of Andy Warhol and that's about it. But there's a lot more there, and Mad Men only scratched the surface, I'm afraid. [00:03:00]ROZSA: I would say if you're talking about Big Tobacco, you have to start in the early 1960s, when president John F. Kennedy was elected on what he described as a New Frontier platform, and he appointed people to positions of power that were idealistic and believed in an activist version of government. One of those people was the Surgeon General Luther Terry, and he became concerned about tobacco products in 1964 and in 1965. Because of his efforts and because of other investigations that validated his concerns, the Federal Cigarette Labeling and Advertising Act of 1965 was passed and it mandated that warning labels had to be attached to cigarette boxes.That should have been the end of it in terms of any pushback to the scientific consensus that cigarettes are linked to lung cancer and other deadly diseases. But tobacco companies [00:04:00] wanted to maximize their profits, so in the 1970s, they launched a campaign called Operation Berkshire. Operation Berkshire manufactured doubt, and that is a term that anyone who wants to study disinformation should familiarize themselves with—manufactured doubt.They made it seem as if there were legitimate scientific disagreements about the risks posed by tobacco products, even though that was objectively not the case. They created organizations like the International Committee on Smoking Issues, which later changed its name to the International Tobacco Information Center.They were very, very effective until 1994, when a Democratic congressman from California named Henry Waxman began an investigation of his own. He exposed Big Tobacco and there was a famous hearing on April [00:05:00] 16th of that year in which the executives lied under oath when asked if they knew that nicotine was addictive.This is extremely important because all of these executives were in various ways later forced out of their industry. They suffered legal consequences. And in 1998, 46 states and the four major tobacco companies signed the Master Settlement Agreement, which stipulated that tobacco companies had to pay states 206 billion over 25 years, as well as take steps to reduce youth smoking.That in terms of the story of big tobacco is still not the end of it, but that is where this becomes relevant when discussing other political issues, because other interest groups that want to do things which harm the public follow big tobacco's playbook. They use the same [00:06:00] tactics. They manufacture doubt rather than pat rather than even though they seem like they're presenting legitimate arguments.These are synthetic positions that exist for the sole purpose of advancing the economic. interests of the fossil fuel industry and those who otherwise are financially connected to it.Manufacturing doubt and building anti-epistemologySHEFFIELD: Well, and so the term manufacturing doubt, let's talk about that a little bit more. What does that mean? And, and how does it work and how did it work for big tobacco in terms of what they were doing with big tobacco?ROZSA: They. People, they paid scientists, they paid doctors, they paid activists to claim that the consensus about the dangers posed by nicotine products were either overstated or somehow questionable. And the reality is these arguments did [00:07:00] not come about through independent scientific research. These arguments, all of them were promulgated by Organizations that had an agenda that agenda was to make money for, in this case, tobacco companies and the public, which is not necessarily scientifically literate, doesn't know that when they read studies, they have to look for things like conflicts of interest that they have to not just accept that the byline is who that person says they are.They have to do a little digging. They don't necessarily understand. It. Even what a lot of this jargon filled language really means that makes it easy for bad faith actors to pollute the public dialogue. Yeah.SHEFFIELD: Well, and, and also to do it and to use, people who have actual real scientific credentials to deliver disingenuous arguments that some of which may even be [00:08:00] true in a limited sense.In other words, that. They may address one specific peripheral point. In regards to a scientific consensus but it's not in any way essential to it. So in other words, you might say, well, somebody, they might expose someone having fudged on some research, something, or, committed some plagiarism or something like that and claim, well, see, then this invalidates everything that the entire scientific community has saying about whether it's, tobacco and cancer or climate change or whatever.Big Oil and American reactionaries adopted Big Tobacco's disinformation techniquesSHEFFIELD: That that's it's and the idea is basically to make it so that you can believe what you want and to destroy the idea of objective truth. Like, that's that's what's so ironic about this right wing. And I guess in their case, they weren't deliberately. It wasn't right wing originally in their case. But it ended up being that way.But you know, originally what they're trying to [00:09:00] do is sort of. Create an anti epistemology, if you will, a framework in which knowledge is impossible.ROZSA: I agree. I would also add to use to go back to something you said earlier. They will say something that has an element of truth in it, but presented in a way that intentionally confuses the issue to use 1 example when you're discussing climate change, the most important thing to know is that The primary cause of greenhouse gas emissions is humanity's use of fossil fuels for purposes like electricity generation and transportation.That is the primary cause of the problem. That doesn't mean that there aren't other factors that contribute to climate change. 1 factor that deniers like to bring up is volcanic eruptions. I wrote an article for salon where I talked to experts about volcanic eruptions. They do, in fact. Play a [00:10:00] role in climate change, but to quote one of my articles, this one is called how much are volcanoes to blame for climate change?And I wrote it last year. Flavio Lennar, an assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell University told me volcanoes only emit small amounts of CO2 relative to how much humans emit today. Another possible factor of natural climate change are changes in solar radiation, but its fluctuations are too small to explain current climate change, plus it has been trending down since 1950, not up.He then proceeds to list other naturally occurring climate change variables, and indeed, deniers will say, what about solar radiation? What about all of these things that arguably could play a role? And. In many cases, do all of that can be used to confuse people who aren't familiar with the science and convince them [00:11:00] that, well, reducing fossil fuels.Is it necessary? Eventually eliminating fossil fuels? Is it necessary? Because we'll still have climate change. That is subjectively untrue. If humanity follows the path established in the Paris climate accords, we will you. Eventually see a improvement in this area. And that's what that's the point that I was making.Yeah.SHEFFIELD: Yeah. And, but to that, speaking of, sort of remedies that are proposed to, mitigate crises discovered by science. Part of the. You, you mentioned the, the plan that they had set up called Operation Berkshire. One of the things that they did later well, I guess let's let's go back to that.And actually, maybe secondhand smoking is how we can do it. Because, because I mean, essentially, there were. There were kind of three phases, if you will, in terms of regulation of Big Tobacco.One was [00:12:00] first, the first one was with children. And then the second one was with just establishing the link of cancer and publicly disclosing that. And then the third one was secondhand smoke. That was kind of the last domino that fell. So I'm just the reason why I want to focus on this a bit more and unpack it is that, I, I, I want to get into the relationship between the commercialized anti epistemology that we're talking about here, and then how. How that was then exported into other issues. That's, that's basically the intent of, of,ROZSA: of the episode.I, I see, I think I see, I mean, my answer to that question would be that the EPIs epistemologically, as you put it earlier, it's nihilistic. It's the idea that we can't have definitive answers to these questions, and therefore you may as well just accept the status quo. That in the case of Big Tobacco caused [00:13:00] people to doubt for it because if in the case of Big Tobacco, the psychological component of it is if people doubt whether we really know for sure that cigarettes can cause lung cancer, well, then I guess I might as well continue smoking and that same type of logic is applied in other areas.Big Tobacco is not the area that I've studied in depth. My area in depth has been climate change. I know that the strategies that were applied back in the 1970s after the original implementation of these tobacco regulations have been used by other private companies. This includes fossil fuel companies that do not want climate change regulations to be implemented or in some cases even passed.SHEFFIELD: Yeah, well and and there is a direct link here because These techniques were, they were pioneered by commercial nonpolitical actors, but the people who came up with them and the companies, the [00:14:00] marketing agencies and ad agencies that created them, they were also had clients in the, in the right wing activists fear.And, and then as the Republican party, especially under Reagan became overtly obsessed with. Dismantling regulations and things like that. This became a natural fit for them and they and they did in fact. Get together and there were a number of, of organizations that were, being funded by big tobacco, such as heritage foundation and a number of other right wing groups that helped the launder of some of these messages especially as we got, into the into the nineties and, and eighties and, when, when the focus became on curbing secondhand smoking and things like that and so.Yeah. I guess what, what, and then, of course, as you mentioned, that they, they took those same ideas into the climate change discussion as well. And so it's, it's an [00:15:00] interesting act, though, in a sense, though, because everyone wants to think that they are open minded. That they do their own research like that's it.That is basically the paradigm that they were trying to tell you that big tobacco was using was that do your own research. You can believe what you want. You have the credibility and expertise. To dispute, a biologist who has been published in, 10 different medical journals more than they do because you have common senseROZSA: or and I find because I interact with more climate change deniers than I can shake a.And the reality is they often will say, well, you have this scientist. What about this scientist? They don't. And then when you claim, well, my scientist is objectively correct. And your scientist is objectively incorrect. They make you seem like the unreasonable one. How can you claim that the matter is settled?Why are you afraid of new ideas? [00:16:00] Why am I not allowed to just ask questions? This is the type of. Reasoning and on a superficial level, that reasoning makes sense on a superficial level. Yes, we should be open to hearing new ideas to being challenged to questioning even our most sacred precepts, but there is a burden on the people asking those questions.And that burden is to have evidence based arguments. When you have scientists asking questions, not based on evidence, but because they're paid. By special interest groups to manufacture doubt, those arguments are not legitimate and should not be taken seriously. And when they are taken seriously, it makes it harder for the public to have intelligent conversations about these literal life and death issues.How mainstream journalism's "both sides" paradigm facilitates disinformationSHEFFIELD: Yeah, no, absolutely. And, and I think it's, it's something that, that point that you just made. [00:17:00] It's something that I think people who have who are politically progressive and well informed about issues understand that innately and, have a generalized and daily appreciation of that fact.But I think it's a point that a lot of people who are not really political or don't pay attention to t…

    Full show notes at the publisher

    The right-wing media landscape has been reshaped completely by Donald Trump Jan 29, 2024
    Show notes

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit plus.flux.community

    Introduction

    Donald Trump’s rise to power within the Republican party set off an explosion of reactionary extremism within the right-wing ecosystem, but it’s important to realize that Trump did not create the present-day authoritarianism that dominates Republican politics, he only encouraged it and empowered it.

    As president, Trump welcomed in some of the most extreme Republican members of congress, including former representatives Mick Mulvaney and Mark Meadows, both of whom went from throwing bombs as members of the so-called Freedom Caucus to setting policy for the entire government as White House chiefs of staff.

    Trump’s ascent to the top of Republican politics also discombobulated the lavish world of right-wing media, which went from calling him a traitorous liberal before he became the Republican presidential nominee in 2016 to slavishly defending his every action and policy.

    The ascent of Trump also supercharged the reactionary media environment by bringing in new figures like Joe Rogan or Clay Travis with more pop-culture brand identities and much larger audiences. Trump’s willingness to elevate and fraternize with extremists also elevated figures like Alex Jones into the heights of Republican influence.

    Terry Krepel, the guest in today’s episode, had a front-row seat to all of this as the founder and editor of ConWebWatch. He’s been running his site since 2000, reporting on all the major developments in right-wing media, including several publications I once worked with during my former time as a conservative activist.

    The video version of our December 12, 2023 conversation is available. The audio transcript is available for paid subscribers.

    Related Episodes

    Julie Millican and Olivia Little of Media Matters on how right-wing media are integrating Christian religious conspiracy beliefs into political content

    Slate writer Molly Olmstead on how Catholic television channel has refashioned itself into a Fox News mini-me

    Historian Nicole Hemmer on how right-wing media holds the Republican electorate together

    (Cover image: President Donald J. Trump participates in a town hall interview taping with Sean Hannity of Fox News Thursday, June 25, 2020, at Green Bay-Austin Struble International Airport in Green Bay, Wis. Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour)

    Audio Chapters

    0:00 — Introduction

    09:32 — Donald Trump’s emergence incentivized right-wing media to become more extreme

    18:25 — Why right-wing media outlets went from despising Trump to slavishly defending him

    34:37 — Conspiracy theories have always circulated in right-wing media but now they completely permeate it

    40:57 — Racist conspiracy theories about immigration went from a fringe belief to common Republican viewpoint in less than 5 years

    44:50 — The line between delusion and deception seems to be incredibly blurry for many reactionary activists

    55:31 — How Newsmax went from a conspiracy newsletter to Fox News Channel’s top rival

    58:08 — How WorldNetDaily founder’s daughter morphed into a prominent anti-Trump Republican

    01:07:36 — Newer right-wing media figures like Joe Rogan have enormous audiences, but left-wing elites haven’t realized the change

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    The ‘post left’ grift is as lucrative as it is unpersuasive Jan 22, 2024
    Show notes

    IntroductionAs the American right has become dangerously radicalized, there is a small number of people who insist that Democrats are the real extremists. These arguments are absurd on their face given that disgraced ex-president Donald Trump openly talks about “suspending the Constitution” and becoming a dictator three years after an armed mob of his supporters tried for the first time in American history to stop the peaceful transition of presidential power. But it isn’t just 90-year-old Fox addicts who are saying things like this. There are also more than a few self-described progressive commentators who claim this as well, people like Tulsi Gabbard, Glenn Greenwald, or Matt Taibbi. These fake leftists who never criticize Republicans are unserious people who refuse to debate the things they claim to believe with serious progressive commentators. One thing they are, however, is rich. There’s a lot of money to be made telling right-wingers that they are the real liberals, and claiming reactionary policies are actually pro-worker.Were these people even on the left to begin with? Is there any truth to “horsehoe theory,” the idea that far-right and far-left ideologies converge? Is it possible or even desirable to find common ground with people who have extreme religious viewpoints but who are somewhat skeptical of capitalism?These are questions worth asking and they are explored at length in a report co-written by my guest in this episode, Kathryn Joyce. She is the investigations editor at In These Times and also the author of “Quiverfull: Inside the Christian Patriarchy Movement.”Scroll down to view the audio transcript of this episode. The video of the conversation is available as well. It was recorded December 21, 2023.Related Episodes* ‘Fan fiction leftism’ and how the right manipulates the left* Libertarianism, neoliberalism and the ‘Californian Ideology’* As libertarianism has radicalized, some of Silicon Valley's biggest names are turning toward fascism(Cover image: Former U.S. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard speaking with attendees at the AmericaFest conference sponsored by the Christian nationalist group Turning Point USA. December 18, 2023. Photo by Gage Skidmore)Audio Chapters00:00 — Introduction03:11 — Compact Magazine and right-wing market skepticism07:32 — Catholic Integralism, another form of Christian nationalism10:41 — The political spectrum isn't just about left and right12:14 — Why Compact's token leftist joined and then quit19:12 — Why “finding common ground” with right-wing elites is almost impossible28:28 — The impact of conversion stories in politics34:33 — Left-of-center people patronize the right instead of making them confront their own ideas41:19 — How the covid pandemic caused some libertarians embrace their right-wing views47:05 — Final thoughtsTranscriptThe transcript of the audio is below. It is automatically generated and is provided for convenience purposes only.MATTHEW SHEFFIELD: And joining me now is Kathryn Joyce. Welcome to Theory of Change, Kathryn.KATHRYN JOYCE: Thank you so much for having me, Matthew.SHEFFIELD: Yeah. So this article that you and Jeff Sharlet published over in In These Times, it's a very important one. And it's important because as the Republican party has become so much more radical, a lot of people who are kind of not really paying attention, and are vaguely apolitical or vaguely centrist have been sort of drifting over to the right, not really understanding that they have been doing that. It's an interesting thing [00:03:00] that does seem to kind of happen in kind of politically uncertain times that not just right now, but we've seen this in other moments where there's been some sort of cross pollination between the sides.But I want to start off with the you guys talked about a publication that was started called Compact. For people who don't know about Compact, what is it and how did it get started? Who's running it?JOYCE: Sure. Sure. So Compact Magazine, it's one of a number of publications that I think generally group themselves under the heading of heterodox or kind of pushing for what they would call a Republican realignment or a political realignment. These are publications, Compact is probably the most prominent of them, that are making the argument that both Republicans and Democrats have failed, some new sort of fusion is needed. And in particular drawing together somewhat more [00:04:00] liberal economic policies, somewhat more concern for the working class with substantially conservative social policies I've been reporting on.Some of the people in these orbits for the last couple of years some of them have been associated with right wing movements like National Conservatism or the Catholic Integralist movement, and they're coming from a place of critiquing liberalism, not as in progressivism, but classical liberalism, the political philosophy that united both the Republican and Democratic parties generally for the past many decades, with a shared emphasis on free markets, pluralism, generally support for individual rights, and making a critique that liberalism has failed people on all of these different levels that it has immiserated the middle class and the working class. And also that on the [00:05:00] social side having social free expression, social liberalism, and individual rights has really undercut the traditions that hold up society, and so that this should be abandoned, something new should come in its place.And so these magazines or these publications, online only mostly, I should say, they are part of this larger project to, you to sort of peel people away from the left with this promise of softer forms of capitalism. Not as kind of hard, libertarian laissez faire. 'We're just not going to talk about the social issues.' That's sort of the compromise they offer is, if we focus on the material issues, maybe all of these social issues can kind of go to the wayside.But that's really frankly, disingenuous the people at the helm of this publication and these movements are, are very far right socially they have made their names [00:06:00] calling--SHEFFIELD: Or like specifically, can you talk about,JOYCE: Sohrab Amari is one of the founding editors of Compact and he is, he's himself somebody who's kind of been politically all over the map, but he really became a national figure in 2019 when he wrote this absolute broadside against this conservative writer and lawyer, David French saying that, David French was basically a sellout to the conservative cause because he defended the existence of things like drag queen story hour on the grounds of free expression and Sohrab Amari wrote this piece called "Against David Frenchism" that went wildly viral and it became this kind of rallying cry for the new, new right. The people who are really kind of rejecting this, this idea of classical liberalism and looking for new ways to formulate their politics. By saying we have to prosecute the culture wars with the idea of winning and enjoying the [00:07:00] spoils. And it's, it's this movement that believes in, transforming government power to be used to enforce their own culture war positions.So for them to now kind of turn around and argue for this political realignment, and can we just put all the social issues to the side it really kind of, It's, it's disingenuous.SHEFFIELD: It's a subterfuge, yeah.JOYCE: It's, it's ignoring the fact that they have that platform for having made that argument.SHEFFIELD: Well, and it's also, yeah, and just as a historical matter, it's important, I think, for Americans, who are used to kind of this more market fundamentalist dominated right to understand that, outside of the United States, this type of, of conservatism and reactionism is very common, and nobody has any illusions that it's on the left or is centrist of any kind.But can you talk about the idea, and, and, and certainly [00:08:00] Sohrab Amari is an example of this, this, this idea of integralism. What is that for people who don't know what that is?JOYCE: Sure. Yeah. Integralism is well, it's a very small movement it's a Catholic right movement that, that basically believes that society should be reordered along the lines of the doctrine of the Catholic Church or the conservative interpretation of Catholic Church doctrines.And it, it, it matches up with a lot of what we were just talking about. I mean, it would include policies that are, somewhat. more, friendly to the middle class or, or the working class than current Republican parties. It certainly would be following kind of all of the social positions conservatively interpreted of, of the Catholic church.It, it. It started in, in a way as, or it's gained kind of a lot of [00:09:00] prominence through the writing of a Harvard law professor named Adrian Vermeule, who has made an argument that, The conservative legal movement should, should go beyond originalism which is kind of famous, the, the, the, the philosophy of a lot of most conservative members of the Supreme Court now and they should move towards an idea of, the law being reordered.Toward the common good or they would say sometimes the highest good and so it's it's this argument basically for a Catholic version of theocracy It is again a very small movement, you know overwhelmingly most Catholics in the United States, if they've even heard of it would almost certainly be opposed to it.But it's, it's nonetheless been very influential because a lot of the people talking about these ideas are professors from prominent [00:10:00] universities Harvard or Notre Dame.SHEFFIELD: And they're lavishly funded.JOYCE: Lavishly funded as well, well-represented in Christian right and Catholic right media. First Things magazine is a very right wing, I guess pan-Christian magazine but very Catholic in orientation.And, it has been making and advancing some of these arguments and the people who are reading it are pretty influential people. So it's, it's sort of got this outsized footprint.SHEFFIELD: And the other thing about this idea of a market-skeptical religious right wing viewpoint, it's unfamiliar to a lot of Americans and but it's still very real.And I want to put up on the screen a chart that, that I made a little while ago that kind of talks about that politics shouldn't, in my view, be thought of as a left and right thing. It should be thought of as a X and Y graph kind of thing. And one of the things to notice when you do that is that [00:11:00] ideologies overlap pretty significantly.If we think of politics as a matter of epistemology, that we have believing that everything you think is pure reason, that's Marxism by its own self description. And then all tradition, of course, being the furthest right viewpoint as well.And of course, whether they're correct in any of that is their opinion, not ours, we don't have to get into that. But then also in terms of who do you trust, and whether you should trust society, or institutions, or you should trust the individual. Then the thing about a religious market skeptic viewpoint is that if you look in the, in the middle of the chart and for those who are listening, you'll definitely have to click the link for the chart to see this, so sorry about that. But in the, in the middle of the chart, we have religious democracy, which can be kind of a centrist philosophy in many ways, and certainly is outside of the United States. And it exists that way for many, Christian [00:12:00] Americans as well, but it also has some significant overlaps with conservatism, with libertarianism and some with reactionism and fascism.And that I think is the real concern about this viewpoint and you talked about how with Compact, they did initially manage to recruit somebody who had a more left wing background and they've paid, paid off a bunch of socialist writers to write content for them. But that at what the editor that was a co founding editor, he's left the publication.Can you talk about him and why why he did that?JOYCE: Yeah. Yeah. That was really interesting. This was a guy named Edwin Aponte, who described himself as a Marxist or a labor Marxist, and he had joined Compact pretty early on, when it was, first in its kind of idea stage in early 2022, I guess it is.[00:13:00] And, just a few months in roadblocks started to appear. He described that he had joined it because, he was very disillusioned after the, the loss of Bernie Sanders in the 2020 primary. He began feeling he was a member of this kind of very small group of people called the post left who believed, there is no left anymore. The left has failed.And in order to achieve, some of our goals in, in terms of materialist politics we might want to make some different sorts of alliances. And so they were open to working with people on the right who were expressing the same sort of economic policies. And this was kind of the other side of that proposed realignment.I think, if there's one hand reaching out from the right, these were some of the people they were reaching out to people who were disillusioned, maybe even a stronger word for, for some [00:14:00] of them in, in despair about kind of the, the prospects of what they believed in ever coming to pass.And they, they responded to these sorts of overtures. In Aponte's case, he ended up joining Compact as it was launching. In his telling of the story, there was an agreement that they weren't really going to be relitigating settled issues like abortion. That this was not going to be a publication where that was going to play a huge role. I ended up speaking to Compaq's other co founders while I was reporting on this this year and last year and, they had a different interpretation of that. They said, we never said we weren't going to talk about social issues, but that we would talk about them through this material lens.But this, things really kind of came to a head when the early draft of the Dobbs decision was leaked in in the spring of 2022, and Compact published a piece that Aponte felt was triumphalist in his [00:15:00] words that wasn't anymore talking about, What are we going to do about abortion?Because now they thought, okay, this is settled. What do we do next? And the answer in that piece that was published in Compact was we should look to Hungary. I, which I was thinking of looking at your graph just now in terms of. Religious democracy. I like that, in, in those various Venn diagrams, you can see that overlapping with all of these different sorts of tendencies.But I think when we are talking about Hungary we're definitely seeing the strong overlap with conservatism and, I think a lot of people would argue strongly there in terms of reaction and, fascism or on the way to that anyway. So Aponte told me that he started to have this realization after, after that Dobbs leak and after the piece that Compact published, thinking that, we're coming at this from from really different directions. We might all sincerely [00:16:00] have a desire to have better economic policies that are more supportive of of working people that are less kind of rah rah rapacious capitalism, but that they were coming at it from really different motivations.And what he came to believe was that his fellow editors at Compact were coming at it from a position where they saw this sort of as a means to an ends.That they saw ultimately this is going to inform the sort of moral governance system, moral kind of order in the country that they wanted to create, and that that was the primary goal. Everything else was really secondary or was a part of getting there.And so he realized this is a really the the strongly different position to…

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    Democrats haven't realized they must do more than attack Donald Trump Jan 15, 2024
    Show notes

    IntroductionThe 2024 presidential election continues to be perilously close between Donald Trump, the fascist ex-president who's been found guilty of numerous crimes and is indicted for many other ones, and Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential incumbent. But the close race that is happening right now is actually a function of a much larger problem that has existed for many years in which neither party has been able to gain the advantage over the other one. While Democrats are closer to the political views of most Americans, the party has been dominated by centrist and conservative leaders who are unwilling to elevate labor unions and focus their attacks on Republicans' far-right ideology. Instead of educating voters about the extreme policy agenda of Republicans as a whole, they have focused their attacks on Donald Trump, a fundamentally weak candidate. They have also failed to advance an alternative to the powerful religious-racial identity politics that reactionary leaders have crafted.For this discussion, we're joined by Mike Podhorzer. He is the former political director for the AFL-CIO union, and he's also the author of a newsletter called Weekend Reading, which we'll discuss later. Scroll down to view the transcript of this episode. The video of the conversation is available as well.Audio Chapters0:00 — How Trump's weaknesses as a candidate masked Democratic weakness08:56 — America's political divisions are primarily geographic more than income or education16:03 — The influence of white Christian nationalism on the Republican Party20:22 — The declining role of labor in the Democratic Party30:48 — Neoliberalism broke "linked fate," the left's biggest advantage36:13 — How Republicans tapped white Christian identity to win elections45:04 — The challenges of creating left-wing media are about both funding and audience habits53:37 — “Mad poll disease” and how to get over it01:00:59 — Right-wing media and a “vibes recession”01:05:16 — What can Biden and Democrats do?TranscriptThe transcript of the audio is below. It is automatically generated and is provided for convenience purposes only.MATTHEW SHEFFIELD: Thanks for being here, Mike.MIKE PODHORZER: Sure, glad to be here.SHEFFIELD: All right. Well, so, before we get too far into discussing some of your work with Weekend Reading, let's maybe talk about briefly what it is for those who have not seen it yet.PODHORZER: Sure. So the idea of it really started in the wake of Donald Trump's victory as a way for those of us who are, were political practitioners to try to understand what had happened and [00:02:00] how to prevent how to make sure that he lost in 2020.And over the course of several years, it grew among the sort of the political practitioners. And when I retired from the AFL-CIO at the end of last year, I decided to make it available to all and what I try to do there is bring a very different perspective than I've seen elsewhere of understanding how politics works the moment we're in.But most importantly, the, the proper way to understand threat of fascism in this country and what we have to do to push back against that.SHEFFIELD: Yeah, and the moment that you chose to start writing it, I think there were a lot of [00:03:00] people that were extremely surprised that Donald Trump was able to win in 2016 on the Democratic side of the aisle or the, the center to left, generally speaking. And I guess from your perspective, they ought to have seen this coming better.PODHORZER: Well, I think those of us who were really very involved understood how close the election really what that all of the sort of models that forecasting models that were out there saying that it was, between 2 to 1 for Clinton to 90-10 for Clinton really had no idea what was going on in the country and reflected really just not having a handle on what was going on in the Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and those of us who are really very involved understood. There's going to be [00:04:00] razor thin and I think for the sort of broader public and this is something that has sort of stuck in the sort of narrative about Trump winning that's got to be really upside down is that if the Republicans had nominated anyone Trump, then they would have won easily.They would have won the popular vote, the Electoral College, and probably would be finishing up their second term. Right.Trump is probably the most successful intra party presidential politician we've had, and the worst inter party politician we've ever had. And he came as close to blowing a sure-fire Republican victory as you can without blowing it.But what [00:05:00] was still the case was that he could have been beaten in terms, just in a political practitioner level. And that's really what we have to get our head around and figure out how to win in 2020.SHEFFIELD: Okay. And so just to be clear, you're you were you disputing or agreeing with the idea that another Republican would have won.PODHORZER: No, I'm saying they would have easily that, that, that Trump was like such a unpopular candidate for them that he almost lost an election they should have won going away. And, and that there's a way in which the, to your beginning 50 yard line, I think Trump has created kind of illusion that.Democrats have more support than they actually do.SHEFFIELD: Mm hmm. Okay. Oh, okay. Well, one of the I guess [00:06:00] some of some of the ideas behind that. Let's maybe explore some of your ideas behind that. So with. With, with regard to Trump being kind of a weaker Republican candidate so, one of those obviously for Republicans generally in 2016 is just simply the fact that the Democrats had the White House for eight years and there's always a strong appetite for or motivation for the out party to come out and vote after eight years of the other people in the in charge and some dissatisfaction by the occupant party. So that's part of it, but what else was it from your viewpoint that they were well positioned in 2016?PODHORZER: Well, in the context of the Electoral College being decisive I think, and I think this is still something that's not really understood. Remember when Obama won in 2008, which was [00:07:00] obviously a victory that was driven by Bush's unpopularity, the collapse of the financial system and so forth. It was still the case that places like Ohio were competitive, right?The way in which Obama's policies address a breakdown of the financial system, which was essentially leaving it to Federal Reserve to supply liquidity through quantitative easing essentially meant that there was no new investment in rural America for that entire time and a lot of the sort of popular commentary talks about Democrats losing it with By extreme margins in rural areas, simply because they're too woke or something, but in fact, these are places that many of those places were devastated while Obama was president, and we're not really getting any kind of [00:08:00] attention.And so there's nothing unusual about people in that circumstance, even putting aside social issues, not wanting more of the same. In 2016 when Clinton was running in e there's, there are various ways of classifying geographic areas. And if you a common one that divides it into six from most rural to most urban in all, but the most rural employment had recovered from the Great recession mostly by 20 12, 20 13.And there was still less employment in the most rural areas of the country in 2016 and yeah, and that just changed the Electoral College math in a way that are barely able to get out from under right now.SHEFFIELD: Speaking of sort of regional classifications, that's [00:09:00] something you've been writing about recently talking about how there's this very common myth that has settled in in both media and among political practitioners that the Donald Trump has somehow made the Republican party a populist party. And that they are sort of the, the, the party for the less economically Prosperous people, and you've kind of tried to puncture that in a number of different ways.Let's talk about what you're you wrote a long piece about trying to basically making the contention that. The different, yeah, the, the idea that the congressional districts have been sort of flipped but it's maybe not completely false this idea, but you, you really unpacked it quite a bit.So let's can you briefly summarize what your, your.PODHORZER: Sure, right and I think there's [00:10:00] 1 of the things that makes but this kind of unpacking a little challenging is because there's a difference between describing a set of people and saying that that description represents causality. What has happened since 2008 is that mostly because of the sort of the MAGA, first tea party, the MAGA reaction that really returned the country into its sectional alignment between sort of the red states in the South, the blue states in the North and West.Consequentially means that Democrats now represent more prosperous people because they represent a more prosperous region of the country. Right? And so it's not [00:11:00] because prosperous people are going to Democrats and not prosperous people are going to Republicans. It's that the preponderance of Prosperity is in one region and press ponderance of sort of lower socioeconomic achievement is in a different region.And so the challenge is, though, that if the only way you can that the media generally tries to understand what's going on in the country is through the prism of national polls, which may no geographic distinctions. Right. You have an effect being treated as a cause. Right. But to go back, the 1 of the places, this sort of, I think, maps to what you're saying where people look at.Republicans being the party of non college [00:12:00] Americans and Democrats being the party of college, right? In blue states, white non college voters supported Biden at a higher level than white college voters did. In red states, right? It really have to get around the idea that the 1st important division in the country is sort of where you live right now.It's true in both places. Non college voters are more Republican than college, but--SHEFFIELD: We're talking about whites werePODHORZER: Yeah, that but that that that doesn't explain what's happening in the country. Right? Because. You, and as I was saying, even with the rural area, Biden almost won rural blue America, which no one would think because of [00:13:00] the way we just generalize from national numbers when, in fact, national numbers are just sort of tallying up what happened all over the country.SHEFFIELD: Yeah, it's true. And in that such that the core differences really are more about the approach that the voters in these regions have their epistemologies, if you will. And, and you can really see that with, when you look at the, the, and, and you note this in, in, in your pieces about this, that, when you look at the Republican, Operative class, the people who run the Republican party, they are from all the same, expensive elite schools the Josh Hollies of the world, JD Vances and Peter Thiels and, even Donald Trump himself.And so it isn't about education itself in education of itself is not dispositive. And I think that, a lot of that oversimplification [00:14:00] has really made a lot of people on the left not understand how to respond to MAGA and sort of the rise of neo fascism.Would you agree with that?PODHORZER: Yeah, I think I think that's part of that. I also think that the thatI think that. When you, this is a thing, something through in sort of how you were talking about Republican operatives and what operatives, I think it's really important to understand to not to anthropomorphize the parties like. They are making a decision. There's a, like, a person making a decision. We're going to do this instead of that, right?The way politics works in America, because we only have 2 ballot lines, is that all of the organized interest in the [00:15:00] country on the big ones understand that the way to have access to the enormous resources the federal government has to the enormous power it has is to advance candidates that will carry their agenda.And when people say, well, the Republicans took this turn here as if there was a Republican who changed their mind about the best tactic, they miss the fact that what happened was that a different faction of the Republican Party gained the upper hand and it's new people. Right, like, all the, the Ryan's and everyone, like, they leave, they either lose outright or decide they can't stay.Right? It's not like someone sitting in a DC headquarters saying, aha, we're going to look at this poll and say, well, we really need to be more fascist. Right? It's the fascist taking over the [00:16:00] party and in the, in terms of the house, right?It's really the white Christian nationalist faction that has. That is hacked Congress.Basically 1 of the pieces I have shows how, our Byzantine 18th century way of figuring stuff out really enables any sort of big interest. That is. Sufficiently geographically clustered right now, because of how gerrymandered and partisan sort, the districts are that you can basically ladder from, 18 percent of the population nationally so Control the house and, the Republicans in the house because in red districts in the South event, white evangelicals make up, between 30 and 50 plus percent of all primary Republican [00:17:00] primary voters and to win a Republican primary on average, if you didn't come in over the last dozen years, only has taken 50, 000 votes.And the national media doesn't see it because he's They treat sort of the Congress as a kind of national constituent assembly, because they're looking at polling.Well, the Republicans are this percent this and this right, but they don't get votes places, get votes and the right cred by Christian nationalism is extremely strong in enough places that they get to control the Republican caucus.SHEFFIELD: And they spent, the better part of Donald Trump's entire presidency. Kind of saying, Oh, he's not that extreme. He doesn't really believe this.He's not really a fascist. You guys are overreacting. There's no, this isn't racism. This isn't, whatever the, I mean, he would come out with all these horrible statements and they would just excuse them and pretend that it was overreacting.So yeah, [00:18:00] so, but that said. It's also that I think to your regional point and with regard to the white evangelicals, I think a lot of people also haven't realized that southern white evangelicalism sort of colonized white Protestantism outside of the South just through its sheer business prowess, whether it was Christian bookstores like Lifeway Christian Resources, which is owned by the Southern Baptist Convention and they've got stores in every state and they, they just, their, their sheer power of organizing and entrepreneurship.They just overwhelmed all the other Baptist factions and, kind of, ate the lunch of, of mainline Protestantism to a large degree. And so, yeah, go ahead.PODHORZER: No, I was just saying, and it's like, really not recognized part two is that And sort of Southern Ohio, Southern Indiana there's been significant [00:19:00] migration.So, which is another element in why those states went from kind of purplish to red.SHEFFIELD: Yeah, yeah, the Southern parts of rural generally speaking and that's, that is true of Illinois as well outside of the Chicago area. So, yeah, but, but I guess to a large degree though, I do think that, when you look at the responses of, of let's say left of cente…

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    Seeing the bigger picture of Moms for Liberty Jan 08, 2024
    Show notes

    SummaryMoms for Liberty, the dishonestly named far-right Christian group, is in the news after Bridget Ziegler, one of the group's co-founders, has been reported to have been in a relationship with another woman and her husband,. Christian Ziegler, her husband, has been accused of raping the woman in Sarasota, Florida.As shocking as that allegation is, it's important to note that Christian Ziegler says he is innocent. There are no criminal charges that have been filed.But nonetheless, it is still worth looking at Moms for Liberty in the larger context of astroturf right wing organizations, especially in the discussion that we're having on Theory of Change about how the Democratic left is less able and willing to promote grassroots organizations.And as we'll see in today's episode, this is not how things were for Moms for Liberty.Joining the program to talk about all this is Kelly Weill, she is the creator of a new website called MomLeft, which focuses on reporting about the activities of far right parent organizations. And she's also the author of a book called Off the Edge: Flat Earthers, Conspiracy Culture, and Why People Will Believe Anything, which is about flat earthers.The video of the conversation is available. A computer-generated transcript of the edited audio follows. The recording was made on December 6, 2023.Membership BenefitsThis is a free episode of Theory of Change. But in order to keep the show sustainable, the full audio, video, and transcript for some episodes are available to subscribers only. The deep conversations we bring you about politics, religion, technology, and media take great time and care to produce. Your subscriptions make Theory of Change possible and we’re very grateful for your help.Please join today to get full access with Patreon or Substack.If you would like to support the show but don’t want to subscribe, you can also send one-time donations via PayPal.If you're not able to support financially, please help us by subscribing and/or leaving a nice review on Apple Podcasts. Doing this helps other people find Theory of Change and our great guests. You can also subscribe to the show on YouTube.About the ShowTheory of Change is hosted by Matthew Sheffield about larger trends and intersections of politics, religion, media, and technology. It's part of the Flux network, a new content community of podcasters and writers. Please visit us at flux.community to learn more and to tell us about what you're doing. We're constantly growing and learning from the great people we meet.Theory of Change on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheoryChangeMatthew Sheffield on Social MediaMastodon: https://mastodon.social/@mattsheffieldTwitter: https://twitter.com/mattsheffieldBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/matthew.flux.communityThreads: https://www.threads.net/@realmattsheffieldGuest LinksKelly Weill on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/KELLYWEILLMomLefthttps://www.momleft.com/Off the Edge: Flat Earthers, Conspiracy Culture, and Why People Will Believe Anythinghttps://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/kelly-weill/off-the-edge/9781643753379/Related EpisodesDemocrats have a failure to communicateIt’s only a matter of weeks until the presidential election year of 2024 begins, and many Democrats across the country are starting to panic as more than a few public opinion surveys have shown that President Joe Biden trails the criminal ex-president Donald Trump. Even more concerningly, there have been polls showing that even though Trump sent armed m…Biden trails Trump a year out from the election, does it matter?In January, things finally start getting serious in the political realm as many states begin holding their presidential primaries. But at this point, things are not looking so good for Joe Biden in comparison to Donald Trump. Less than a year removed from the election of 2024, Biden trails Trump in a number of public opinion surveys that have…Republicans are horribly unpopular, why haven't Democrats been able to win big?Introduction The Republican party is completely and utterly dominated by a small faction of political and religious extremists with policies that are incredibly unpopular, such as privatizing social security or criminalizing birth control. And yet, in spite of this fact, Republicans are still able to win many elections, even outside of their stronghold of…Audio TranscriptMATTHEW SHEFFIELD: Welcome to Theory of Change, thanks for being here.KELLY WEILL: Thanks so much for having me.SHEFFIELD: Yeah. All right, so let's start our discussion here by talking about the current news story that is, seems to be a ever growing scandal concerning Christian Ziegler, who is the chair of the Florida Republican Party, but also the husband of a woman who is a [00:02:00] co-founder of the Moms for Liberty group, Bridget Ziegler.At this point in time, and things might change during the time that we're recording this versus when it airs, but as things stand right now, what is the deal with this whole scandal concerning Christian Ziegler?WEILL: It's a mess, in a word. Christian Ziegler, he's the chair of the Florida GOP. He's been really close with Ron DeSantis and he and his wife Bridget are real power players in both Florida politics and specifically Florida educational politics. Bridget is a co-founder of Moms for Liberty, which is a group that has been instrumental in pushing anti LGBTQ legislation related to students in Florida.Now, Moms for Liberty will say that Bridgette Ziegler is no longer with the group, but she's very much a model for the kind of school board warrior that Moms for Liberty wants to promote. So, earlier this month it came out that a woman who had been sexually involved with both [00:03:00] Christian and Bridgette Ziegler in some capacity had filed a police report against Christian Ziegler.She said that the couple had planned some kind of three-way and then that Bridget said, Oh, I can't make it that day, that the woman had canceled because Bridget wasn't going to be there. And she alleges that Christian Ziegler attacked her in her home and raped her on that day. The woman went to a hospital, got treated with a rape kit, right after this.They have a good number of text messages from Christian Ziegler and members of the Florida GOP are calling on him to step down. He is not doing that, claiming that the incident was consensual on both parties.SHEFFIELD: Yeah, that's right. And basically saying that we've got a country to save. And he's just too important to everything. Now, it's my understanding, though, that there were two different boards with Moms for Liberty, and she had been involved with an [00:04:00] advisory board. Is that correct?WEILL: The exact details of her Not the board of directors. Yeah. Right. The exact details of her involvement are I'm sure you could drill down. I don't have them committed to memory. She was a co-founder, and she is involved in a lot of groups that are also involved with Moms for Liberty.These are groups like I believe the Liberty Institute, just a number of right wing organizations that are adjacent to this sphere and that are very, invested in getting moms like her involved in school board politics, running for these school board roles and really mobilizing around educational issues.SHEFFIELD: The other thing about the Zieglers with regard to Moms for Liberty is that their connection to the group is actually really what helped them get a pipeline directly into the Republican party elite. Christian Ziegler was not in, he wasn't the chair of the Florida Republican party, but he was the assistant chair [00:05:00] and seems to have gotten them, heavily involved with this very wealthy group called the Leadership Institute.Do you want to talk about that at all? Who they are, the Leadership Institute and what they do.WEILL: Sure. They're an organization that, helps to sort of groom up-and-coming Republican voices. They're quite hard right. And they have been plugging in with Moms for Liberty.They have been offering training for promising moms in that space who might want to become the next school board rabble rouser. And so. You are right that this is a very well-funded sphere Moms for Liberty has received significant payments from, say, the heiress of the, Publix fortune, the Florida supermarket chain.So there's a lot of money and specifically a lot of Florida Republican money sloshing around here.SHEFFIELD: And where did they, like what was their original impetus? It wasn't about getting angry at books [00:06:00] originally, right?WEILL: Right. Bridget Ziegler is actually a really interesting figure to follow in the origin story here because she's tried this a couple times getting right wing mom organizations up and running.She had a conservative school board. member group that she tried starting a couple of years back, didn't really go anywhere, but I think where Moms for Liberty really got its initial momentum was in debates over mask mandates at school. Masks obviously became this intensely polarized issue with a lot of, I think, performative politics on the right.And. I think Moms for Liberty in its very early stages was able to tap into that anger and tell parents that we're a group with which you can mobilize. You can take back your school board. You can reclaim your child's education. And of course, a lot of these things are euphemisms for other grievances that they're already pushing.And so that's why when the mask fight died down. Moms [00:07:00] for Liberty didn't die down. It pivoted into those harder right grievances like banning books related to LGBTQ issues restricting education about race, gender, sexuality. So that's, that's how it got its foothold and how it's moved forward since then.SHEFFIELD: Yeah. their transition in that regard is actually pretty common in, in the history of Republican social movements, such as they are. Like the Tea Party, for instance. I mean, I used to be a Republican activist before I had my own little transition as, my audience knows it, but you may not.And I did speak at some tea party events, local tea party events in Virginia a couple of times. And I was always shocked at when I was invited to speak how, almost invariably. With the people who were there, the attendees would try to turn every conversation over to, God created America and that sort of stuff.And I was not [00:08:00] religious at the time. So I was like well, can't we just focus on the topic here? Why are we talking about this? But they did just kept pivoting toward that. And so I'm curious. What do you think? Were they responding to demand or were they responding to what they actually wanted to do? The co-founders, the leadership.WEILL: I think they always wanted to do this. I think they always wanted to get some kind of right wing moms group off the ground. And I think that's pretty savvy for Republicans. We're a few years out now from the election cycle where it seems like mobilizing conservative parents for age was really a good way to win office.And I think that's the message that a lot of people took from Virginia governor, Glenn Youngkin's election was that he was able to tap into anger that. Some parents had about say LGBTQ issues in schools. And that's not to say that those in many cases, bigotries are valid, but it does mobilize some people [00:09:00] does get some people to the polls.And I think groups like Moms for Liberty were able to see this maybe underplayed political block and. Identify them as a group that they could really mobilize that could really get going in a concerted direction. All they had to do was dangle a few hot button issues. And suddenly people are in a group and can vote and mass.And I, do think, you hate to give credit, but it has been effective to a certain degree in certain swing districts.How reactionary groups use low-turnout elections to impose their extreme agendasSHEFFIELD: Who are the other key leadership figures with moms for the, for people who don't, aren't too familiar with the group?WEILL: Right. The other the other main leaders right now are a woman named Tiffany Justice and a woman named Tina Descovich, I believe.And they're the ones that you see these days on stage at say, Moms for Liberty convention. But. After the 2022 cycle, 2021 and 22 election cycles, Moms for Liberty was able to sweep a lot [00:10:00] of elections. I think a combination of novelty and rage. They weren't a really known quantity, but because they were so organized in these school board races that are usually pretty passive or certainly don't have the--SHEFFIELD: And they're low turnout. Yeah, they're low turnout.WEILL: Exactly. Exactly. And so they were able to, I think, hijack these elections in ways that Were unexpected. And so I think a lot of Republican leadership saw that they saw these Republican wins, they saw this new mobilization and they really did key into groups like Moms for Liberty being a good vector electorally for them.So that's why the summer at Moms for Liberty's convention, yes, you had the the founders, the leaders like Descovich and justice, but you also had pretty much every prominent. Republican was speaking there. You had Donald Trump spoke, Ron DeSantis spoke. This is a group that was only getting started.I think like two, three years ago.Many journalists seem unaware of Moms for Liberty's extremismSHEFFIELD: Yeah, no, it's true. And [00:11:00] well, one of the other things about the coverage of a lot of the media out of that convention in Philadelphia is. I feel like that a lot of, and because I read a lot of it and a lot of the coverage was really, and not just of the convention, I will say, but even a lot of their local chapters, a lot of the news media coverage, it seems like they don't know how to cover this group.And they don't understand how radical that the leadership and the membership are. And it was only after that a Indiana chapter that had used a quote from Hitler and if Hitler in one of their newsletters which and you can remind me of what the phrasing was.It was something about. If those who control children's minds control the future or something like that and they put that on their newsletter and got some flack for it. And then Tiffany Justice basically mentioned that she supported the mom who did that. And at the mention of Adolf Hitler, people in the crowd started cheering, [00:12:00] for apparently Hitler, or quoting Hitler. And that caused them a lot of problems and actually she and I guess I should say I had a small role in that in that I posted that video clip on Twitter and they started attacking me for doing that. But like that was, but before that moment regarding this Hitler quote, a lot of news organizations, and I'm interested in your thoughts on that, but a lot of news organizations, especially local ones, when they would find these, astro turf, fake grassroots groups showing up at school boards, they would take it at face value. And they would just say, Oh, these are just regular parents showing up here.When in fact, these were people in many cases, especially in Virginia, who were you know, hardcore professional political consultants paid hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. They're not just regular, parents showing up.[00:13:00] And you didn't, and you didn't say anything about, people talking about their agenda or anything like that.It was just, they, limited it only to that surface- value analysis. Would you agree with that?WEILL: Yeah. And I think you're totally right to call them astroturf to a degree, because this is a tightly managed nationally run organization. I mean, Media Matters this summer, I think, ran thei…

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    Encore: The Christian right plotted against democracy long before January 6th Jan 01, 2024
    Show notes

    Almost three years have passed since a violent mob stormed the U.S. Capitol with the intent of overthrowing the 2020 election so that then-president Donald Trump could illegally remain in office against the wishes of the American people.During the intervening time, while hundreds of people have been indicted and convicted for their role in the events, almost nothing has emerged from the law enforcement investigations as to what Trump and his inner circle of aides were doing that tragic day. And that’s because federal investigators can only reveal information connected to a formal criminal indictment.What is very clear, however, is that the tens of thousands of people who came to Washington on January 6, 2021 were doing it for something much more important to them than the grievances of a snobby New York investor. For many of the people who entered Capitol that day, invading the building was striking a blow for God against a wayward America they despised.Unfortunately, this information was out there well before the Capitol invasion, but it wasn’t reported much by the mainstream press, which spends most of its time obsessing over political gossip instead of actually understanding politics.Joining the program to discuss all this with me is Bruce Wilson. He is a researcher and journalist who has studied Christian nationalist movements for decades and has tracked their ever-growing influence on Republican politics. In the show — which was recorded on January 6, 2022 — we go through a number of specific moments to show that the attack on America was building for years and why the extremists who did it want to come back for more.This episode previously aired January 8, 2022.VideoTranscriptMATTHEW SHEFFIELD: Thanks for being here today, Bruce.BRUCE WILSON: Sure.SHEFFIELD: This is such a large story, there’s a lot of context, that is difficult for mainstream journalists whose primary job is to chase politicians around. So it’s kind of hard for them to tell this full story. And even in a one hour podcast, roughly it’s hard for us to do that. So we’re going to tell the story through the lens of a guy who is a member of a radical anti-abortion movement group.Let’s talk about the group first a little bit, if you could. Talk about that briefly, if you will, for a second.WILSON: Well, it’s a number of decades old founded by Randal Terry, later picked up by Flip Benham, and now it’s got shared leadership. It was a more legitimate wing of what amounted to probably the biggest domestic terrorism phenomenon in the United States in the 20th century. There was nothing else like it, and the targets extended more than abortion doctors or abortion clinics. There was Eric Rudolph who blew up a bunch of people at the World’s Fair because he hated gays the United Nations. There was a whole list. He was concerned about the “new world order,” but anyway, so the ideology extends a lot further than you might think of.And underpinning it tends to be the Christian Reconstructionist movement, which is where, more than not, the anti-abortion movement came out of. So there’s a whole totalitarian, if you will, vision of how to radically restructure society that lays behind the anti-abortion movement. So ultimately the Christian reconstructionists want to radically pare down government and to impose Biblical law at the local level.SHEFFIELD: Because they see that government has somehow intruded upon the rights of the church. And that the church should be in control of society, not the government.WILSON: Yeah. The Christian reconstructionists divide things into three separate spheres. There’s the government sphere, the family sphere, which is the most immediate, and essentially the church sphere. And that’s pretty much it. So most justice would be administered through biblical law at the local level.SHEFFIELD: So we’re going to center the discussion around this guy who was a member of this movement and his name is Ante Pavkovic, he’s a far right pastor based out of North Carolina. Mostly what he does is he travels the country and screams at people and stalks them outside of abortion clinics. That’s his, seems to be his primary occupation, if you will. So I’m going to play some footage of him, denouncing people and denouncing America.(Begin clip)ANTE PAVKOVIC: Most of the people today in America that go to church do not know God. Half of the churches in America are fake. The ministers are fake. They don’t know God. It’s a job to them, it’s a vocation. It’s a way to make money. They don’t preach the true gospel.There’s plenty of pastors in America that tell their congregants that abortion is all right. Those are not men of God. Those are servants of the devil!So it doesn’t matter how many people go to church in our nation. Most of our nation is lost. Look at it!(End clip)SHEFFIELD: And the clip goes on for ad infinitum, frankly. We don’t need to play all of it.But basically, the core things to take away from it are that this is a far right movement that sees America as ultimately, fundamentally, illegitimate. That hates fellow Americans, thinks that it’s God’s personal servants, and that anyone who criticizes them is Satan’s little helper, if you will.It’s a movement that blends racism, that blends misogyny, that blends religious fanaticism all in into one, just this noxious cocktail. And there’s something that’s kind of interesting and unfortunate about a lot of people when they observe far-right politics, is that they tend to think it’s all just one thing. It’s all sexism, or it’s all racism, or it’s all religious fanaticism, but the reality is that it’s all a different mix for different people. The idea of a divine imprimatur is perhaps the biggest motivator, but it certainly isn’t the the only one.WILSON: Yeah. Another way you can look at it is that, broadly speaking across the spectrum from the Christian Reconstructionists to the charismatics, who I spent an awful lot of time studying, they think that America has fallen away from God and God’s commandments. And there’s a palingenetic process. They feel like the nation has become almost impossibly corrupt, and it needs to be restored to some imagined future glory. It’s what was going on in Nazi Germany, that they had a similar vision of a national rebirth.So that underlies this, even as much as the anti-abortion people will talk about how awful America is, there still will be this vision in the background. It’s always there in the Christian Reconstructionist vision that America has betrayed God’s commandments, and therefore we are cursed. But if we shape up and we prostate ourselves before God, we will again, receive God’s blessing and we will be great again.SHEFFIELD: Make America great again. And that’s one of the things that we’ll see later on in the episode that Donald Trump, his campaign slogans and the things that he says are explicitly designed to parallel in some cases literally, the exact words that these people say.So that’s the theology of these people and and their political outlook and they, in a lot of cases are the engine behind a lot of other right-wing movements as well. So like the militia movement is heavily affiliated with Christian Reconstructionists and people like that have this idea of: ‘Someday, we’re going to overthrow the government and return it to the way that God had made it in constitution.’And the other thing also to note is that the January 6 insurrection it wasn’t the only time that we’ve had violence at the Capitol or interruptions on the floor of Congress by people trying to stop official duties. One of those that took place was an event that took place in 2007.And at the time it got almost no media coverage. And it was involving Ante Pavkovic. Pavkovic. He and his Christian nationalists comrades decided they were outraged that Harry Reid, who just recently passed away, who was the Senate Majority Leader at the time, Harry Reid had invited a man who was a a Hindu religious leader to deliver the prayer in the Senate.So they, every day they have an opening prayer of their session. Most of the senators never attend it, but I guess it’s a traditional formality that they’ve decided to just keep going. No non Christian or Jewish religious leader had ever done it up until this point in 2007.And so, Well, actually I think in fact there was another incident that happened in 2000. So that was the first time when they actually did have a Hindu person do a prayer. And there was a lot of anger on the Christian right against them. But nothing really happened as a result of it.But in 2007, there was a second moment where a Senate leader decided that they were going to invite in the name of religious pluralism, and the fact that this is an America for everyone, no matter what your faith or non faith is, to deliver a prayer.And so, there was a man that was invited whose name is Rajan Zed. And he’s a Hindu religious leader based out of Nevada. So he got up on the dais at the Capitol and he was interrupted. And C-SPAN 2 actually captured the footage of that day, but to my knowledge has never aired on any television network.(Begin clip)SENATE STAFFER: Today’s opening prayer will be offered by a guest chaplain, Mr. Rajan Zed of the Indian Association of Northern NevadaANTE PAVKOVIC: Lord Jesus, forgive us Father for allowing the prayer of the wicked, which is an abomination in your sight!SENATE STAFFER: The Sergeant at arms will restore order in the Senate.PAVKOVIC: You have said that we shall have no other gods before you! You are the one true and living god!SENATE STAFFER: The Sergeant at Arms will restore order in the chamber.PAVKOVIC: Have mercy Lord!RAJAN ZED: Let us pray.UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN: In Jesus’s name, I pray.ZED: We meditate on that transcendental glory of the Deity Supreme.WOMAN: We will keep saying your name, O Jesus! You are the only one who can save us!SENATE STAFFER: The Sergeant at Arms will restore order in the Senate, in the chamber.ZED: Let us pray. We meditate on the transcendental glory of that Deity Supreme, who is inside the heart of the earth, inside the life of the sky, and inside the soul of the heaven. May he stimulate and illuminate our minds.(End clip)SHEFFIELD: And he went on with a very nice prayer to try to get people to think and respect each other. So there was certainly nothing objectionable to it and normal people were not offended by it.But it was an important moment because– so at that time, so you heard two voices in the clip. Obviously the male voice was, he was identified by the police, as Ante Pavkovic .But then also his wife, Katherine Pavkovic, was believed to be the woman who was in the clip as well. And they were carted off by the police and subsequently arrested for what they did and charged. But in the far right Christian community, there was no condemnation for what they did.And there was no acknowledgement that it was a gross violation of all their rhetoric of pretending to be concerned about religious freedom. That’s something that you’ve looked at also that these movements often try to use the term “religious freedom” as kind of a cudgel to bash everyone else. But they themselves don’t actually believe, right?WILSON: Yeah. They’re there they’re ultimately supremacists. No other religion other than their particular form of Christianity, which in this case, would be typically Protestant, which Christian Reconstructionism is. And this viewpoint extends over to the charismatic side of the equation. So even the fellow Protestant denominations: Methodists, and Episcopalians, and Presbyterians and so on, certainly Unitarians are seen as illegitimate and perhaps under sway of demons.So that’s how extreme it is. And even though the Christian reconstructionist don’t do this, but among the charismatics, say the New Apostolic people, they will show up on stage quite happily with Catholics, but when they’re in private, they will make no bones about the fact that the Catholic Church is, at least, under the sway of demon influence.So that’s how extreme it is. So it’s no surprise that these Operation Save America people were screaming out a Hindu prayer, which they saw as the worst form of sacrilege that was probably at some point going to break down God’s wrath. That’s the way it works.SHEFFIELD: Yeah. And and they’ve, some of them, have explicitly talked about how that, I think Rushdoony actually talked– RJ Rushdoony who was the founder of Christian Reconstructionism– actually wrote about how religious freedom was something that they would use but didn’t believe in.WILSON: I vaguely remember it, but it was also echoed by his sometimes second in command, Gary North, there was a break at some point, but North essentially said the same thing. He said, we will use democracy to get rid of it.SHEFFIELD: Well, and it’s something that they have in common with other far right movements, whether it’s ones that tend to be more misogynist oriented, like the Proud Boys, or ones that tend to be more racially motivated, is that they see the vast majority of Americans as not real Americans. That only they and their political allies are Americans. That no one else actually deserves rights or freedom in their thinking. Is that accurate, would you say?WILSON: Yeah. And I’ve been really surprised since the advent of Trump that the Republican Party has almost, they’ve walked right up to overtly acknowledging that they want to be a herrenvolk democracy. They want to a herrenvolk democracy, which is an ethnic democracy or for them, that would be a white, ethnic democracy, a democracy of the minority and that they would of course, find ways of excluding all other ethnicities from the vote.SHEFFIELD: Yeah. And now I’m going to play a clip from a guy named John MacArthur. He’s a mega church pastor here in California. Extremely influential within far right Christianity, but most people have never heard of this guy, but he is rolling in money and actually was behind the lawsuit when he wanted to keep his church open in the pandemic, that the Supreme Court ruling.So this is him talking about what he really thinks about religious freedom.(Begin clip)JOHN MACARTHUR: I read the other day that one of the evangelical publicists, whatever that is, said he’s happy to let us know that the new administration will uphold religious freedom. Really? The new administration will uphold religious freedom? Um, I don’t even support religious freedom, religious freedom is what sends people to hell.To say I support religious freedom is to say I support idolatry. It’s to say I support lies. I support hell. I support the kingdom of darkness. You can’t say that! No Christian with half a brain would say: ‘We support religious freedom.’ We support the truth! (applause)But if the new administration supports religious freedom, get ready, persecution will be ramped up. Because the more supportive they are of the devil’s lies, the less they’re going to tolerate the truth of scripture. (Break in audio)We’re not going to lobby for freedom of religion. What kind of nonsense is that? We are in the world to expose all those lies as lies.(End clip)SHEFFIELD: And he goes on. That mentality that America is only for them. And they’ve had the increasing realization since Republicans have not won the popular vote in the presidential elections since 2004, that the hold that they think they deserve and that they’re entitled to on America, it’s slipping and they’re getting upset about it.It’s really disturbing. So that’s kind of the background, the context here. We have the theology, which says that the far right are the only ones entitled to governance. Then we have the idea that they can just go ahead and disrupt anything that they want because they’re the servants of God.And I think one example that at the time it did receive a lot of coverage, but people didn’t– I don’t think they paid attention fully to it. And that is Kim Davis, the Kentucky county clerk, who in 2015, refused to perform…

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    Democrats have a failure to communicate Dec 18, 2023
    Show notes

    SummaryIt’s only a matter of weeks until the presidential election year of 2024 begins, and many Democrats across the country are starting to panic as more than a few public opinion surveys have shown that President Joe Biden trails the criminal ex-president Donald Trump. Even more concerningly, there have been polls showing that even though Trump sent armed militia members to invade the Capitol and attempt to kill then-vice president Mike Pence, many Americans think that Democrats are more extreme than Republicans.Many of the more centrist or conservative Democrats are telling Biden to stop supporting transgender rights or to explicitly disown racial justice advocates in the hopes that doing so will make Americans think he is acceptably moderate. Other people are telling Biden to use public opinion surveys to come up with the “perfect message” that will somehow be able to resonate with everyone.One thing that pretty much all of them miss is that in the social media age, quantity matters more than quality. You can have a perfect message, but if it’s shouted down by right-wing lies and bluster, it won’t matter because no one will ever hear it.In this episode, Matthew is joined by Parker Molloy to discuss. She’s the creator of the blog The Present Age, and is a former editor-at-large for Media Matters of America.The video of the conversation will be available beginning at 10am PT on December 18. The transcript of the edited audio follows.Membership BenefitsThis is a free episode of Theory of Change. But in order to keep the show sustainable, the full audio, video, and transcript for some episodes are available to subscribers only. The deep conversations we bring you about politics, religion, technology, and media take great time and care to produce. Your subscriptions make Theory of Change possible and we’re very grateful for your help.Please join today to get full access with Patreon or Substack.If you would like to support the show but don’t want to subscribe, you can also send one-time donations via PayPal.If you're not able to support financially, please help us by subscribing and/or leaving a nice review on Apple Podcasts. Doing this helps other people find Theory of Change and our great guests. You can also subscribe to the show on YouTube.About the ShowTheory of Change is hosted by Matthew Sheffield about larger trends and intersections of politics, religion, media, and technology. It's part of the Flux network, a new content community of podcasters and writers. Please visit us at flux.community to learn more and to tell us about what you're doing. We're constantly growing and learning from the great people we meet.Theory of Change on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheoryChangeMatthew Sheffield on Social MediaMastodon: https://mastodon.social/@mattsheffieldTwitter: https://twitter.com/mattsheffieldBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/matthew.flux.communityThreads: https://www.threads.net/@realmattsheffieldGuest Info https://www.readtpa.comhttps://bsky.app/profile/parkermolloy.comhttps://twitter.com/parkermolloyAudio TranscriptMATTHEW SHEFFIELD: Joining me today to talk about this scenario is the first-ever repeat guest on Theory of Change, Parker Malloy. She is the proprietor and author behind The Present Age, which is a blog you should definitely subscribe to. Thanks for being here.PARKER MOLLOY: Thanks so much for having me. It’s good to be the first repeat guest.SHEFFIELD: All right. Well, so the Democratic Party, right now, it’s in a bit of a crisis as the polling has been not so great for Joe Biden relative to Donald Trump. And I wanted to talk about it in that context. Lately we’ve been hearing from a bunch of people saying that the public thinks that the Democratic Party is extreme on, especially on social issues. Whether that be something like racial injustice or trans rights or teaching about alternative family structures in schools and things like that.And I have to say it’s kind of baffling to hear. Because [00:04:00] it’s not supported by the data at all, especially given the 2023 elections where so many of these far-right Christian supremacist people went down hard. I guess it’s not a surprise to you though. You’ve been around the block a few times.MOLLOY: Right. One thing about this, that the reason behind that in my opinion, is that on social issues, on these sorts of culture war issues — like trans issues especially I think part of the issue is that Republicans go on offense on that a lot, where they, go out there and they say: ‘Look at the Democrats who have this this crazy over the top view. Here’s what the Democrats believe. They want to put boys in your bathrooms. They want men to win women’s sports.’They say all of these things, and they tell you what Democrats believe, even though that is not at all how Democrats would frame their [00:05:00] beliefs or talk about their beliefs. But because (Democrats) are so afraid of sounding extreme, they just kind of cede the ground to Republicans to set the public opinion themselves.So in a lot of cases, Democrats seem to think that they can just not talk about trans issues. Or that they can not talk about abortion and that will be good enough. Because it will get, people will focus on the important things or the financial issues, the kitchen table issues, but these are all important things.These are all important policies. And when you don’t go on offense, which, with the exception of the 2022 election, Democrats tend to not go on offense when it comes to abortion. When you won’t go on offense, you let them set the terms of the debate.So Republicans will go out there. And they will say Democrats want you to be able to murder babies up until 30 days after they’re born. Democrats want these partial birth [00:06:00] abortions and all of these things, over and over.And the same kind of stuff happens with trans issues. And because Democrats aren’t out there saying what they believe in and making a proactive case, which in on both abortion and LGBT issues, it comes down to the same exact thing where people should be able to make their own decisions about their own lives. Whether it’s their healthcare, whether it’s who they want to get married to, whether it’s who they are. People need to have the freedom to choose the right path for them and to take whatever action they believe they need to take.And that’s a reasonable point of view. But if instead of doing that, you let Republicans frame it as look at these baby killers and they want LeBron to dominate the WNBA. It makes no sense to allow your views, which are reasonable and [00:07:00] actually fairly conservative in a small government kind of way, if you do that. Like, why would you allow them to set the terms there?SHEFFIELD: Yeah, well, and the other thing about this approach is that they suppose that the right wing will ease off if you just stop talking about this stuff.Like you look at the ideas about reforming police systems or training like that. So that was branded by a handful of far left people as "defund the police." Completely eliminate police departments and reconstitute them. That was never a policy that was embraced by the Democratic Party.And in fact, they explicitly, Joe Biden in speeches, explicitly said he wants to fund the police. And so, here you have a scenario where the party itself from the top explicitly went in the strategy that they’re saying they want to do with regard to trans people or [00:08:00] race or abortion and it didn’t work.The right is still saying that every Democrat wants to defund the police. So it’s not about how you frame stuff. And I guess maybe this is something that people who have always been on the left, it’s harder for them to understand. So maybe you can tell me, but as somebody who was on the right, what I realize is that there’s a fixation in the establishment Democratic party to find the perfect message. And if we can just make a thousand polls, we’ll come up with just the right phrasing and issues. And it’s like, that doesn’t actually matter. The message matters less than how often people hear it. Quantity matters more than quality. And they don’t understand that I feel like.MOLLOY: Yeah, I mean, obviously, you want to have something that sounds good, that sounds uncontroversial, but, yeah, you have a great point. I mean, the advantage the right [00:09:00] has is in its approach to media generally.I mean, Fox News can —SHEFFIELD: And advocacy, yeah.MOLLOY: Yeah, media and advocacy. Back when I worked at Media Matters, it was right after the Green New Deal was announced, right after it was introduced. It was just a seven-page promise to take climate change seriously. It was non-binding. There was nothing really to it, but Republicans and specifically Republicans on Fox News were talking about how, oh, if this passes, it would ban train travel. There, there would need to be trains that go to Hawaii and it would ban airplanes. And cows would, you would be forced to become a vegetarian and eat bugs. And all of this stuff where it was just so much nonsense.It’s hard to beat, but months later, polling on the Green New Deal was horrible, especially for people who got their news from Fox or Breitbart or other right wing out outlets.And [00:10:00] there’s just nothing on the left that can really compete with that. And I think that there are a lot of people in denial about the importance of being able to compete in the media world. Fox is there. There is no left wing Fox. Mehdi Hassan just got his show canceled on NBC. And Michael Steele, the former Republican party chair, he’s going to host his show now. He’s getting his own, like he and three other people are now going to host a round table type show. There is no left wing Fox News, as much as people like to pretend that there is.SHEFFIELD: Yeah, well, not only is there no left wing Fox, but there’s also like five other right wing networks on top of Fox. So you’ve got Newsmax, you’ve got News Nation, you’ve got OAN, you’ve got Real America’s Voice, and apparently there’s some new one that started up whose name I don’t recall right now. But yeah, they just keep coming because they understand that you have [00:11:00] to get the message out, and you have to talk to people where they are.There is something to polling analysis about how the Democratic party has to some degree become sort of out of touch with maybe, less educated or nonpolitical obsessives. I think there is something to that, but it’s more about how do they understand how to talk about things, not about what their ideas are.So like if you look at Joe Biden’s actual policy programs, he has, he literally has been, check the box on almost every economically progressive idea short of, universal healthcare. He expanded Obamacare, he had, for a long time until Joe Manchin made him get rid of it, expanded the child tax credit, he forgave lots of student loan debt, he pushed forward an immense amount of infrastructure spending and environmental, boosting electric cars and things like that.Like from an economic standpoint, he did everything that they told him to [00:12:00] do. And it hasn’t worked. And they don’t want to accept that and realize that that impact has happened.MOLLOY: Yeah. And I think that part of that has to do with not wanting to accept that people aren’t as plugged in to politics as, as people who are super plugged into politics seem to think everyone is as plugged in.Because most people don’t keep up with the individual things that pass, that get implemented, the small policies here and there, most people don’t know that stuff.Every once in a while, I’ll see some interview where someone will say — there was a woman I think was interviewed by the New York Times recently, who said that she was thinking of voting for Trump because she supports abortion. And it was something where the interviewer had to be like, well, Trump’s actually on the opposite side of this, but her take was that Roe was overturned and Biden was president. That’s what she knew. That’s what people know.And it’s really difficult to just hope that people notice that you’re doing good work, [00:13:00] especially when your opponents are going to be out there with a massive media and advocacy apparatus telling people that you’re evil and that every problem in the country is because of your policies.They never specify, no one ever says why they think Biden’s policies cause gas to go up or inflation. It’s just Joe Biden is president, inflation is bad. You should punish him for that.It’s not about policy. There’s no way to just magically fix the problem by changing his stance on anything. It’s never been about policy.SHEFFIELD: Yeah, well, and especially it isn’t for a lot of people because they just don’t understand what the policy is. And you constantly see Democrats on any available platform saying that: ‘Oh, people don’t give Joe Biden the credit for doing X, Y, or Z.’ And they don’t, because guess what? It is not the responsibility of the mainstream media to do that. Whose responsibility [00:14:00] is that? It’s the Democrats’ responsibility.MOLLOY: Yeah.SHEFFIELD: It is the left wing’s responsibility. And until you understand that — they just keep getting frustrated over and over. It is what I call the myopia of intelligence.Because you have mapped out something and the reason for something being, five or six levels deep, and this is why something happened and why, what in my response to it is this and that, and you’ve got it all mapped out. And then you ask somebody else, well, why did this thing happen? Oh, because I didn’t like it.And that’s how politics works as well. People, they don’t operate at the same level, and you should stop assuming that they do. And this is a paradigm that repeats over and over, especially with Donald Trump, who really does understand this sort of more basic level of communication so much better than Democrats or even other Republicans do.MOLLOY: Yeah, I mean, he’s, he’s able to connect with people who are receptive to his message. [00:15:00] I mean, I feel like he understands it and that it’s just kind of his natural, his natural place with that. But you know, people are really bad with cause and effect generally. Especially when we’re talking about things like gas prices or inflation. I mean do people know, oh, well the Fed raised interest rates and that affects like.SHEFFIELD: Yeah, or do they know about inflation in other countries and how it’s higher than here?MOLLOY: Yeah, and that’s something that, I know that this gets talked about on social media, on Twitter a lot, oh, is the economy good? Is the economy bad? And really, it’s a question of is the economy good compared to other countries. It’s kind of good relative to the rest of the world because the pandemic was going to cause some chaos, going to wreak some havoc. And it did. And trying to recover from that is, is a challenge that every single country on the planet had to deal with and has to deal with.And it seems like the U S is doing [00:16:00] relatively well compared to other countries when it comes to employment or inflation, but people just, people see prices go up on something, and they think ‘This is bad. I don’t like this. That’s too expensive. It shouldn’t be that expensive.’And there’s no consideration about whether it’s worse than other countries or not, because it affects them personally. They don’t know about that. And they don’t know about it. And even if they did, you wouldn’t blame them for going: ‘So what, it’s still too expensive for me. This is still making me feel bad about how things are. This is limiting what I can purchase. You can tell me it’s a good economy, but it’s still costing me more to get less and that’s frustrating.’And I can, I understand people who have that.SHEFFIELD: And that’s the reality that they live in.MOLLOY: Yeah. Right. And I understand people getting frustrated about that sort of messag…

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    Biden trails Trump a year out from the election, does it matter? Dec 11, 2023
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    IntroductionNext month, things finally start getting serious in the political realm as many states begin holding their presidential primaries. But at this point, things are not looking so good for Joe Biden in comparison to Donald Trump.Less than a year removed from the election of 2024, Biden trails Trump in a number of public opinion surveys that have been released by reputable organizations. So what's going on here? Is this just the way things work in American politics or are there mistakes that Biden has made? What is the status of public opinion on Joe Biden?And would it do any good for the forces of democracy for Joe Biden to be replaced on the Democratic ticket or Kamala Harris, the vice president? We'll talk about some of these questions in this episode, and continuing with our series about what is going on with the Democrats.Joining me to discuss is David Atkins, he is a contributor to Washington Monthly magazine, and he is also a member of the Democratic National Committee, although he is not speaking for their behalf in today's conversation.The video of this conversation is available. The transcript of the audio follows.TranscriptMATTHEW SHEFFIELD: Welcome to Theory of Change, David.DAVID ATKINS: Happy to be here. Thank you.SHEFFIELD: All right. Well, so, as I mentioned in the introduction, there [00:02:00] is a lot of concern among people of the, let's say center to left perspective about a passel of polls showing that Donald Trump is doing better when they ask people about who would you vote for next year?And it's causing a lot of panic and making people try to dust off their priors, it seems like usually. Are people responding to these polls in the right way?ATKINS: This is a challenging and complex question because I think it depends on, on who you're talking to.I think there are changes that need to be made to more forcefully communicate the message about what the Biden administration has accomplished. And there's a lot of discussion that's happening around what the best way to, to message and communicate that so that it actually gets through to persuadable voters, right?There is, I think a lot of deer in the headlights, and everything is going to be okay-ism that happens from folks who are more [00:03:00] sort of in the establishment and think, you know what? Everything's going to be okay. We just have to get through to the next year. We've been here before in the polling and we're just going to keep sort of doing what we're going, what we're doing.And I think both sides are making a mistake. I think panicking too much based on polling a year out from the election is unwarranted. There's been multiple times in American history where the incumbent president was not polling so well a year before the election, and things ended up being fine, because ultimately, the incumbent, if there are issues in the economy or whatever, the incumbent doesn't do so well, but then when there becomes a real choice with the opponent, then that changes things. On the other hand, I think the issues are serious enough that strategic adjustments are absolutely necessary.SHEFFIELD: One of the proposals that a lot of people are really, some are putting forward is the idea that Joe Biden needs to resign and not run for reelection. And he's just too old and people don't like him. [00:04:00]And if he did, then everything would be magically perfect somehow and Trump would lose. This seems to be rather naive. There's this idea that, that it would have no impact on the Democratic coalition if the currently serving president abruptly abandoned his campaign right before the primaries start.ATKINS: I mean, so full disclosure here, I'm not a big Biden stan. I was for Bernie in the 2016 primary. I was for Warren in the 2020 primary. So, you're not hearing this from like, Oh, a Democratic establishment Biden guy. That having been said, I think you're absolutely right. And I have said this in, in my updates in, on my DNC page and elsewise.There is talk from some progressives about, wanting to replace Biden because he's not far enough to the left. There's also a lot of talk among more sort of establishment voices this worry about him being perceived to be too old in the media or whatever, [00:05:00] but I think you're right. All of this talk is a mistake.Because while there are challenges for any incumbent, but the perception of any incumbent and Biden's perceptions among the public certainly have their challenges as we've seen from the approval ratings, I think anything that, if he were to step aside, the battle that would take place to replace him would create massive rifts in the Democratic coalition.And it would be less healthy for the party than to continue forward with Joe Biden, absent some obvious, serious health concerns, serious scandal, but based on current information.I think that going in a different direction would do more harm than good. And even talking about it doesn't serve us. We need, regardless of the person at the top of the ticket, I think the most important thing is for us to be concentrating on the [00:06:00] real massive legislative victories that have been achieved for the American people under the Biden administration, which, whether from a moderate perspective or a progressive perspective have been truly enormous.Biden has been a much more progressive president than I would have given him credit for. I have some disappointments, but mostly the administration has done very well with serious challenges, having a razor-thin Congress and all the rest. So, I, I don't think there's a lot of gain to be had from having those kinds of conversations at this point.SHEFFIELD: Well, and it is interesting because, this discontent, it's coming from both wings of the Democratic Party. So, the centrists say that Biden is too far to the left, and then the progressives say that he's too far to the right. And of course, there's the logical fallacy of the excluded middle. That doesn't mean of course that he's doing everything perfectly, but it does mean that perhaps people making these criticisms are not entirely able to see things, that [00:07:00] they're seeing things from a biased perspective, perhaps.ATKINS: Right. I mean, part of the problem, too, is that every strategic move comes at potentially at a coalition cost.There is no question, but what younger and more progressive voters are not very enthusiastic right now, but some centrist voters also have a perception that you know, that if things shift too far to the left, it may not be to their liking for various reasons.So, if you look at the Israel Palestine issue, for instance just from an electoral coalition every politician sort of gets it coming and going, no matter which side of it they take.So, speaking not in terms of absolute moral terms, but in just purely strategic electoral terms, it's not entirely clear what the best path forward always is. That having been said, I think that progressive policies, most of which the Biden administration has absolutely embraced, that are popular and overwhelmingly popular for the American people, for instance, this [00:08:00] recent push to get rid of lead pipes, which should be universal. I think that's a positive thing that we can carry forward.And with inflation drawing down, I think the economic policies have been fairly successful, and that what we see at the macro level will begin increasingly to be felt in people's pocketbooks at the micro level. And that's sort of the path forward to try and repair the polling damage. And that says nothing about the damage that Trump is going to be experiencing over the next year going forward with his trials.SHEFFIELD: Yeah, and actually, and that is actually the next topic, Trump, I would, that I wanted to talk about, because I do think that, especially a year before the election, whoever is the president is automatically, there's a, there's always inevitably a buyer's remorse on the part of the supporters.And we did see that with Trump. I was running polling operations for the Hill and doing a show about public opinion surveys, and we ran [00:09:00] surveys asking Republicans, would you want somebody else to run for president in the Republican party? And most of them said yes. But that didn't mean that they weren't going to vote for him when he eventually got the nomination. So that's a factor, but then there's also, I think that the, the way that the Republican primaries have been operating, these candidates essentially have been telling the Republican people who tune in, you should vote for Trump. The message of every single one of these debates is, we're just here as a backup but we still support Donald Trump. And that's the message that just keeps getting reinforced, especially by people like Nikki Haley, who basically never say anything bad about Trump. And DeSantis barely says anything bad, and certainly Ramaswamy says nothing bad about Trump. Like that's basically the, Chris Christie is the only one who says anything, significantly critical of Trump in these debates. And then of course, he's not there to take the slings and arrows himself because he's too afraid.So [00:10:00] ultimately this has been more of a prolonged coronation for Trump rather than a real primary, I would say. What do you think?ATKINS: No, I agree. These candidates are all sort of waiting in the wings. They know that if they say anything negative against Trump, that it will actually hurt them. Chris Christie is the only one, as you mentioned with the courage to do that, but it's obviously not redounding to his benefit in the polls and the among the Republican electorate.So, it is sort of a show primary. Donald Trump is easily going to be the nominee, unless of course he has some massive health problem. You would normally say massive scandal or health problem, but of course that's not going to affect anything at all.So, it would, it would require a health issue for him to not be there. He is going to be the nominee and everyone else is an also-ran. And these debates are functionally pointless, no matter how much the media and many Republican donor sets try to advance either Ramaswamy, or, or now, Nikki Haley is the flavor of the month. But [00:11:00] no, it's going to be Trump.SHEFFIELD: And I would say that these debates, to the extent that that legitimate news organizations are putting them on now, they are actively helping Trump by doing these things. Because they're not, there's, they're not filled with any substantive criticism or discussion about it, even discussion about any of his ideas.There will be perfunctory things about, various comments that Trump says, such as his, oh, well, I'll be a dictator only for one day vow, which was cheered by the audience of Fox News when he was there with Hannity, that's important to note. They didn't think it was a joke. They thought it was great when he said that.But nonetheless, it's just continually reinforcing this meme that Republicans have created for themselves, that the only thing people don't like about Trump is mean tweets. They, and they really have, they've said this so many times that they really believe it.And it's an incredibly insidious but powerful argument because [00:12:00] it's very simple. It's easy for people to understand that you think he's mean and that's why you don't like him. And the mainstream media is actively helping advance that, I think.ATKINS: No, I absolutely agree. And, when you look at persuadable voters, from having done polling, persuadable voters often are not the best-informed voters. And so, there's a lack of awareness generally of the danger that Donald Trump represents to democracy itself. There's a lack of awareness of just how extreme his policies are. There is this perception that Donald Trump is this social liberal, all over the map, he just wants to, to do the right thing from a business standpoint-- businessman good for the economy kind of perception that's sort of vague in a lot of people's minds who don't pay very close attention.But of course, the man is a wannabe fascist tyrant, with terrible policies across the board that would be devastating to the American economy and [00:13:00] devastating to our standing in the world on foreign policy. He wants to ally with dictators around the world to basically put the United States on the wrong side of global democracy.So, but people just don't know. And you've started to see traditional mainstream sort of media like New York Times, Washington Post come out more forcefully and talk about this recently and talk about this actual statement that Trump has been making. It's a little bit late though, because I think people's perceptions are, are a little bit baked-in on that front, but the more people can be talking about it, the better, because his statements about what he intends to do have grown much, much, much more extreme just in the last year compared to even all the statements he used to make in the past.SHEFFIELD: Yeah, no, I agree with that. And I do think while these prosecutions that he's, he's facing are certainly well deserved and are, are substantive and, they continue to be [00:14:00] generally victorious in, in court rulings they should have happened immediately after he left office.And that was perhaps the biggest mistake that people who were concerned about him coming back. Because if we go back to the second impeachment that Trump faced, which Mitch McConnell deliberately stalled to be conducted after Trump had left office. (There was plenty of time that this could have happened while he was the president. And then he deliberately chose not to make that happen.) But nonetheless, the argument that the Trump defenders made at that time was, we're not going to impeach him because he's going to be held legally accountable in the courts for his behavior, but then nothing happened for two years.ATKINS: Right. No, I've had many arguments with people including Marcy Wheeler and others about this topic. Because the two sides of the argument are: Well, if you prosecuted too quickly, you wouldn't have all the facts in hand. It takes a long time to roll up these sorts of [00:15:00] prosecutions. Mafia prosecutions, for instance, take place over the span of years.You don't want to have a prosecution that goes bad, because you didn't have your ducks lined up in a row. And I hear all of that. On the other hand, some of these crimes were very obvious. Some of the evidence was right there. I, I don't understand why it should have taken so long. And I think there was a significant amount of political reticence to go after Trump.I think that a lot of people felt for a little while, like that threat was passed. We'd move on; re-opening all of this would only inflame tensions further. Trump was going to take an exit on the stage. What's the point? And I think there was you don't want to make it look Like the Biden administration is influencing the Justice Department to go after its political enemies, even though that's, of course, not what's happening, the man Trump committed massive crimes and any other person in the entire [00:16:00] United States who had committed those crimes would be immediately hit by the Justice Department from either party,SHEFFIELD: Which and yeah, and I'm sorry, just to inject we saw this happen in Brazil, a similar thing was done by Jair Bolsonaro, that his supporters invaded their capital and rioted and tried to, to stop him from, from being forced out of office after the…

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    Republicans are horribly unpopular, why haven't Democrats been able to win big? Dec 04, 2023
    Show notes

    IntroductionThe Republican party is completely and utterly dominated by a small faction of political and religious extremists with policies that are incredibly unpopular, such as privatizing social security or criminalizing birth control.And yet, in spite of this fact, Republicans are still able to win many elections, even outside of their stronghold of the old confederacy. Sometimes, as in the case of Donald Trump, they can even win the presidency.Some of this reality is due to the extraordinary professionalism of the Republican political class, which has been consistently spinning straw into gold for decades through gerrymandering and voter restriction laws.The Democrats are the cause of many of their own problems as well, as we'll be discussing in the next several episodes here at Theory of Change. Our guest in the first episode of this series is Michael Kazin. He is a professor of history at Georgetown University and the author of What It Took to Win: A History of the Democratic Party, it’s a look at the party from its very beginning up until the 2020 presidential election.TranscriptThis episode is available in video as well as audio. The transcript of the audio follows. It is automatically generated and is provided for convenience purposes only.MATTHEW SHEFFIELD: Thanks for being here today, Michael. Welcome to Theory of Change.MICHAEL KAZIN: Thanks for asking me, Matthew.SHEFFIELD: All right. Well, so, there's your book is a very long one with a very meaty subject, obviously. Why did you decide to focus on this topic?KAZIN: Well, I've been a Democrat, capital D, small d, for a long, long time since I stopped being a self-proclaimed revolutionary about 50 years ago or so. And I also, I thought that there's really no serious study of the Democrats as an [00:02:00] institution throughout their history, looking at the kind of coalitions that were built, looking at continuities and discontinuities in the ideology of the of the party.And as a Democrat with a capital D, I also wanted to figure out, what has done wrong, what has done right and how it can do better. Also I should say that my son is a Democratic party operative, has been for a long time since he was in college 15 years ago 16 years ago, and so I've learned a lot from him about how the party works internally and that kind of inspired me to learn more about that. So I think, as a historian, I'm always trying to answer questions about the present by using the past and question about the present is, sort of, piggybacking you off your introduction. What have the Democrats done, right?What have they done wrong? And what are the roots of that? How do we understand that evolution?SHEFFIELD: Yeah. And it's, it is interesting that a lot of people have begun considering this question, very recently.A spate of new books advising DemocratsSHEFFIELD: Your book is one of several that have come out in the past year or two that kind of looking at well, what's what [00:03:00] is the left need to be doing? How are they doing things wrong or right?Which is interesting because there weren't a lot of those books for a number of years, as you were saying. And now one of the, the sort of Intentions of a lot of these books that have come out and we'll be talking to some of the other authors, so I don't, I won't make you have to respond to them unless you want to,KAZIN: But one of the, I just, I just reviewed a book by, two friends of mine called where have all the Democrats gone, which is one of the books you might be talking about by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira.SHEFFIELD: Yeah, no, it's well, and the thesis of a number of these books has been that the Democratic party needs to focus more on economic issues and, and go away from social issues and yours, your approach is, is different than that. And I think that's why I actually wanted to start this series on the [00:04:00] show here with your book because I think you understand that because you're yours is a more historical focus one than some of these other ones that are more poll-driven or data-driven.I think you realize that that's not necessarily going to work this idea. So why? In brief, why, why do you say that wouldn't work?KAZIN: Well, yes and no. I mean, on the one hand, I do think Democrats, in order to become a majority party again, do need sort of economic populist message. They need to, uh, make very clear what they want to do for people and link up with, Movements like labor unions and other movements, which want to, help people across lines of identity, and of course lines of race and gender preference.I think that's really important. So I do agree with, with some of the popularists, if you can call them that, about that. On the other hand I don't think you can escape what the party already is which is a coalition of. Young leftists[00:05:00] who care very deeply about, about cultural issues and unions, which are struggling to revive and they haven't really revived very much yet.So, one can't just say, aha, this is what Democrats should do and why don't they do it? One of the, one of the things about being a historian that's useful, I think to this, uh, argument, to this discussion is. Is that you can't like leap beyond what the party is. You have to figure out how to convince people in the party to do things differently to stop attacking one another for what are, basically very small differences.And you also have to do that within a context of what might be declining empire context where of course Americans more and more are they might be strong partisans, but they don't like parties. And so if you're going to be in the, you're going to be one of the two major parties, you'd have to understand how to deal with that fact, how to get people engaged with a party as a party again.If you can't do that, then you end up competing with the likes of Donald Trump for media time. And for attention and [00:06:00] for, for glitz, so to speak. So, I mean, that's a, a long answer to your question, but that's sort of more my, my impulses than my answers, if you will.How the Democratic party got startedSHEFFIELD: Your point about people not being interested in, in the Democratic party as a party or parties generally is, is an important one and. That's why I, I thought it was I think it's, it's relevant the first part of the book where you talk about, the, the origins of the Democratic party as a party because you rightfully note that the Democratic Party is the oldest political party in the world. And those days in the early days of the Democratic Party are, I think, really relevant. Especially now when people are so interested or disinterested in political parties. Can you tell us a little bit about those early days and how the Democratic Party came to be?KAZIN: Well, it really arose at a time when for the first time in world history the United States was a nation which enfranchised [00:07:00] all, all white men.Who were, of course, white people, the majority of the population at the time. And that was unusual, because that wasn't true in any other nation, even nations that were somewhat democratic, like Great Britain at the time. We had a very small, number of men actually be able to vote.And on the, on the heels of that Martin Van Buren who is doesn't get enough respect, I think from, from historians began to put together a party based on working class men in the North and planters in the South slaveholders for the most part in the South behind the candidacy of Andrew Jackson, who they saw as this and was this sort of charismatic figure, military hero And originally the party was called the Jackson party, not the Democratic party because it was put together in order to boost the candidacy of, of Andrew Jackson in the 1820 election.As, as Tocqueville wrote, in his great book, Democracy in America, this was the golden age of, of, of associational life in America, of [00:08:00] community organizations of various kinds, fraternity groups drinking societies immigrant, immigrant groups as well. Tammany Hall gets going at that point which was, the most powerful democratic machine in 19th century, early 20th century in America, in New York City.And so, the party originally was really an association of, of white men across regions who wanted who agreed on opposition to what they considered to be the most powerful elite in the country at the time. Which were bankers in Philadelphia and New York which were Wall Street investors, Wall Street just beginning to be organized as a powerful institution at the time.And in some ways, this goes back to the, the famous debate between Jefferson and Hamilton about how much power the central government should have. Democrats originally actually believed very different from now that the central government was run by an elite and the less government power, federal government power that is, the better because they thought that the federal government would always be in the hands of an economic elite.And so the less power it had, [00:09:00] the better. But I think when you have universal white manhood suffrage you have the environment that's really ready for a mass party to, to form. And we can talk about how that happened. The Democrats did not create a universal white manhood suffrage, but they actually obviously supported it.And they were very active in signing up immigrants who came to the, to the country almost as soon as they got off the boat from, from Europe, even before they were citizens, they found ways to sign them up. So. Democrats really were responsible, you might argue, not just for building the first mass party in American history, but for really for creating popular American politics the way people understood that in the 19th century.And really the, the opposition party was formed in opposition to the Democrats specifically called the Whig Party. It's called the Whig Party because the Whigs were the anti-monarchy party in, in England. And the rigs opposed King Jackson the power of so called monarchical tyrannical president Andrew Jackson.So in that sense Democrats were really created their [00:10:00] own opposition.Media was integral to early Democratic party organizingSHEFFIELD: Yeah. Well, one of the other things that they did the early Democrats did that you document very well, is that they created the idea of partisan newspapers as a way of spreading awareness of the party's message and awareness of the candidates.Can you talk a little bit more about that?KAZIN: Yeah. Well, most newspapers were partisan. In the 19th century, really up until the early 20th century, believe it or not. I mean, there's still papers around the country with Republican and Democrat in their names, even though they try to show at least that they're not partisan anymore.And yeah, I mean, one of the things that Van Buren understood very early on when he was actually a power in. A sort of what was called the Republican Party in New York State, which is the biggest state in the country, was, he said, in order to convince people to support our party and to support our policies, we have to start our own newspaper.It's called the Albany Argus in the capital of New York and Albany. And that became the, the model for Jacksonian slash Democratic [00:11:00] newspapers in every major city in the country. And those newspapers were often supported unofficially by money from the Democratic Party. And some of the editors of those papers went on to be in the Jackson administration and then in the Van Buren administration as well.So, of course, these newspapers were the media of the day. There was nothing else that would spread it. And, and because congressmen had the right the franking. Privilege to, to send out materials from their office for free some Jacksonian Democrats would send out these newspapers around the country.So it was really a national machine in that sense.SHEFFIELD: It was. Yeah. And you mentioned it briefly just a minute ago about the idea of the Democratic party was anti-national government, anti-federal government, um, for a long time or from the very beginning of it. But it's, it's also that, there was this kind of the, the, what has emerged in the present day is kind of the ideological [00:12:00] divisions between the, the parties.It didn't really exist in the early, in, the first 150 years or so roughly of the United States, you could perhaps say. Roughly. And so there was this, this constant. Interplay between people who had what might be now termed as more, right wing beliefs and more left wing beliefs, but they were always in both of the parties and, and, and that's something that those tensions, especially within the Democratic Party, they kind of, really kind of, I mean, you talk extensively about that, how various factions within the party, we're kind of, we're pushing for really in many ways opposite ideas.Do you want to expound on that a little bit more?KAZIN: Certainly there are many factions. I think to be a successful party in a two-party system, you have to have a diverse group at least demographically, if not ideologically. Otherwise you're not going to win the electoral college, [00:13:00] and not going to take over them.Not going to win the Senate, especially. And of course the house as well. Or control state governments to any great extent. But the Democrats did have an ethos, if not an ideology, which, which bound them together for a long time. And again, it was, opposition to what they saw as governing elites, financial elites especially in the Northeast.And later on also industrially and so, in some ways they're united by their enemies, I think, it's fair to say, and that's one of the things which, which kept them together until, until the Civil War, and then, of course, slavery made it impossible for Southern Democrats and Northern Democrats to get together, because Northern Democrats were very concerned with the rights of white workers in the North and the working class was growing with immigrants from England excuse me, from Ireland and from Germany, especially in the 1830s, 40s and 50s.And so the Democrats, of course, even, even those who didn't have slaves didn't own people, nevertheless, often wanted to be able to own people. And rising in, in the world if you're a Southern Democrat meant, be able to have in order to own, own, [00:14:00] own slaves at a certain point.So. That was, that difference was too great in the party to compromise. And so 1860 you have two Democratic tickets. One the vice president of the United States named Breckenridge, running as a Southern Democrat. And Stephen Douglas Senator from Illinois, who famously campaigned against Lincoln earlier for Senate.As a Northern Democrat and but then it's quite remarkable. If you think about it, that the party stayed together, uh, after that it stayed together. Of course the Northern Democrats stayed in in Congress and we're able to elect governors in places like New York state during the civil war.They opposed the draft, for example, they wanted the north to win militarily, but they, they opposed the emancipation of slavery. They opposed giving black people the vote. And then they stayed together as also in the late 19th century opposing tariffs helping the big industries for example that was a big, a big issue for, for Democrats.So, so in some ways the, the Democrats began as the party for the ordinary white man. They expanded [00:15:00] as the party for. The not so ordinary white man, white men who had, who had a lot of property in the South. But then they, they, they kept calling themselves the democracy, in fact, capital T, capital D, because they really believed, I think all Democrats did, that they were…

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