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    FiveThirtyEight Politics

    Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and “game-changers” every week.

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    Copyright: © 2015

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    Latest Episodes:
    Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted? Mar 23, 2023

    All eyes have been on the Manhattan district attorney’s office this week to see whether Donald Trump will become the first former American president to be indicted on criminal charges. It appears unlikely that an indictment will come this week. And even if the grand jury were to indict, the charges wouldn’t be unsealed until the defendant appears in court. In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what we do and don’t know about Trump’s legal jeopardy and the possible political impact of an indictment.

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    The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back Mar 20, 2023

    The crew looks back at two of the most notable American political decisions of the 21st century: the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the bailout of American banks during the 2007-'08 financial crisis. Both feel relevant today, as the country marks the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War and the government responds to two of the largest bank failures in U.S. history.

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    The Hidden Stories In The U.S. Census Mar 16, 2023

    The U.S. Census may be the most consequential data set in America. It determines how political representation is apportioned in Washington and how trillions of dollars in federal funding are allocated. But the data contained in the Census shouldn't always be taken at face value. Galen Druke speaks with historian Dan Bouk about his book, "Democracy's Data: The Hidden Stories in the U.S. Census and how to Read Them."

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    Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998 Mar 13, 2023

    Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. The crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion, which suggest that, despite a lot of the handwringing, polling is still just about as accurate as it's ever been. Later in the show, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the debate over abortion has evolved since the 2022 midterms.

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    Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm Mar 09, 2023

    Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harm to society — and consider what to make of former president Donald Trump’s gains on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in early Republican presidential primary polling.

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    The Poll That Ended Dilbert Mar 06, 2023

    Author Marianne Williamson officially entered the 2024 Democratic presidential primary on Saturday. It’s very unlikely that Williamson will be a serious challenger to President Biden, but with multiple polls suggesting that a majority of Democrats don’t want Biden to run for reelection, the crew asks if he might be vulnerable against the right challenger?

    They also take a look at the results of recent elections in Chicago, Wisconsin and Virginia to see if they hold any lessons about the national political environment. And they ask whether the poll that Dilbert creator Scott Adams went on a racist rant over was actually a meaningful poll.

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    Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless' Mar 02, 2023

    American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but it’s not the only one. In her new book, “Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis,” New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve.

    In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused.

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    How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear Feb 27, 2023

    To mark a year since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book “Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia.” James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end.

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    What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Feb 21, 2023

    It's a busy week! The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful.

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    Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? Feb 16, 2023

    This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls.

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    American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted Feb 13, 2023

    The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. We’re still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics.

    They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Biden’s recent dismissal of the polls is a “good or bad use of polling.”

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    Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech Feb 08, 2023

    President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. It was his first big national speech since the midterms and a preview of his likely 2024 reelection bid. The crew discusses the arguments Biden laid out and where he stands with American voters two years into his presidency.

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    How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did Feb 06, 2023

    In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time?

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    The Politics Of Loneliness Feb 02, 2023

    Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing “serious loneliness" in 2021. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. Galen Druke speaks with the director of the Harvard study, Robert Waldinger, about the lessons his findings have for politics in America.

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    There Are Some Big Elections Happening In 2023 Jan 31, 2023

    Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling.

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    Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. That's Changing. Jan 26, 2023

    In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today — politically, economically, culturally — have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. Galen speaks with him.

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    What The Debt Ceiling And George Santos's Career Have In Common Jan 23, 2023

    The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santos’s career might unfold. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics.

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    California's Senate Primary Is Going To Be A Doozy Jan 17, 2023

    Over the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like.

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    There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees ... Right? Jan 12, 2023

    As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the final episode.

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    What The Speakership Vote Tells Us About The GOP Jan 09, 2023

    The crew looks at why it took 15 votes to get Rep. Kevin McCarthy elected House Speaker and what that process says about the two years ahead and the GOP more broadly. They also consider how Rep. George Santos’s scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign.

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    How The Primary System Has Shaped Our Politics Jan 02, 2023

    Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the second episode.

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    Our Presidential Primary System Is An Accident Dec 26, 2022

    Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, “The Primaries Project.” It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the first episode.

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    The Politics Of Prosecuting Trump Dec 22, 2022

    As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond.

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    What I Learned From The 2022 Midterms Dec 19, 2022

    Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he’s learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on.

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    Is There A Political Realignment Among Latino Voters? Dec 15, 2022

    As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led to some speculation about a possible realignment. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024.

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    We Answer Your Lingering Questions About 2022 Dec 12, 2022

    With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump.

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    How Democrats Won The Georgia Runoff Dec 07, 2022

    The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff.

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    Warnock Has The Edge In A Close Race Dec 05, 2022

    Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar.

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    Is Democracy All Good Now? Dec 01, 2022

    Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like.

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    If Biden Doesn't Run In 2024, Who Will? Nov 28, 2022

    Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgia’s second Senate runoff in two years. They also review Democrats’ agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft.

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    How The '90s Shaped Today's GOP Nov 21, 2022

    Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s."

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    Emergency Podcast: Will Trump Win The GOP Nomination? Nov 16, 2022

    Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

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    Why Democrats Beat Historical Trends In 2022 Nov 14, 2022

    Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions.

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    When We Could Know The Results In The House And Senate Nov 10, 2022

    Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what they’ve learned from this election so far.

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    The Red Wave Didn't Happen Nov 09, 2022

    In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their “Model Talk” hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. As of this writing, we still don’t know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come the morning. But that doesn’t stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didn’t make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle.

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    The Final Pre-Midterm Model Talk Nov 07, 2022

    Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters’ performance this cycle.

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    The Issues Worth $9 Billion In Ad Spending Nov 04, 2022

    The crew previews what to expect on Election Day and listens to some of the most common types of campaign ads aired this cycle.

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    How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model? Nov 02, 2022

    Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of “Model Talk."

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    The Pennsylvania Senate Race Is On A Knife’s Edge Oct 31, 2022

    With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth.

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    Live From D.C. … This Is Model Talk Oct 27, 2022

    In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next month’s midterms.

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    How A College Education Divides American Voters Oct 24, 2022

    The crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecast’s shift. Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics.

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    Don’t Obsess Over The Crosstabs! Oct 20, 2022

    Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value — but also shouldn't undercut the poll.

    Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.

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    The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022 Oct 17, 2022

    The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House.

    Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.

    The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here.

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    Is Oregon Going To Elect A Republican Governor? Oct 13, 2022

    Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk.

    Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.

    The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here.

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    From Gas Prices To The Threat Of Nuclear Conflict … What Is Shaping The Midterms? Oct 10, 2022

    It’s October and the surprises are rolling in. OPEC+ announced it’s cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking about the threat of nuclear “Armageddon” and shoes keep dropping in the Georgia Senate race. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now.

    Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Do Scandals Like Herschel Walker's Still Matter To Voters? Oct 06, 2022

    The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model.

    Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.

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    What Would Two More Senators Do For Democrats? Oct 03, 2022

    The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections.

    Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.

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    There’s A 6-In-10 Chance One Party Will Control Both Chambers Of Congress Sep 29, 2022

    Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk."

    Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Why Biden's Unpopularity Doesn't Seem To Be Tanking Democrats Sep 26, 2022

    The crew discusses how Biden’s approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia.

    Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Is Social Media Turning Us Into Political Extremists? Sep 22, 2022

    Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S.

    Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Which Party Are Latino Voters Choosing In 2022? Sep 19, 2022

    The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022.

    Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    It's Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls Sep 15, 2022

    In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners.

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    Does The Monarchy Rely On Public Approval? Sep 12, 2022

    The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass.

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    What To Expect Between Now And Election Day Sep 06, 2022

    Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up – summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy.

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    Why Sarah Palin Lost Sep 01, 2022

    Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures.

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    Is Student Debt Relief Good Politics? Aug 29, 2022

    The crew discusses how President Biden’s executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Court’s recent abortion decision. Finally, they analyze why Biden’s approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July.

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    If The Midterms Were Tomorrow, Republicans Might Be In Trouble Aug 24, 2022

    Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEight’s metric. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing.

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    The Trump Investigations And What Americans Think About Them Aug 22, 2022

    What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trump’s actions, the legal consequences he could be facing, and how the American public is reacting. They also analyze a new poll from YouGov that breaks down why 78 percent of Americans say they have changed their mind on one or more political issue over the course of their lives.

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    What Liz Cheney Might Do Next Aug 17, 2022

    Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska.

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    Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin? Aug 15, 2022

    In recent weeks, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. They also ask whether we should be skeptical of polls showing Democrats’ performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans.

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    Republican Outsiders Have Made Their Mark This Cycle Aug 10, 2022

    The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterm’s primaries.

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    Could The 'Inflation Reduction Act' Save Biden's Approval Rating? Aug 08, 2022

    The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out.

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    Why Kansas Voted To Keep Its Right To Abortion Aug 03, 2022

    The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington.

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    All The Political News You Missed Last Week Aug 01, 2022

    The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump.

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    The Polls And Pundits Disagree (Again) Jul 25, 2022

    In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms.

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    Americans Aren’t Happy With Biden. Or Republicans. Jul 19, 2022

    Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling."

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    Will Democrats Continue To Win In Georgia In 2022? Jul 14, 2022

    In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, “Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power,” and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond.

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    The Supreme Court Episode Jul 11, 2022

    With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall.

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    Does DeSantis's Strength Spell Trouble For Trump? Jul 05, 2022

    The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the state’s likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary.

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    The 2022 Forecast Is Live And ‘Model Talk’ Returns! Jun 30, 2022

    The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast.

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    What The Politics Of Abortion Look Like Now Jun 28, 2022

    The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections.

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    Emergency Podcast: Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade Jun 24, 2022

    Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion.

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    Are 1 Percent Of Americans Evil? Jun 21, 2022

    The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization.

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    More Trouble For Democrats In The Rio Grande Valley Jun 15, 2022

    Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texas’s 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries.

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    Are Centrists The Most Powerful Politicians? Jun 13, 2022

    The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaska’s special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend.

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    Were The California Primaries A Blow To The Progressive Movement? Jun 08, 2022

    The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances.

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    The Democratic Divides In California Jun 06, 2022

    The crew previews California’s primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans’ superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings.

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    Are Democrats Actually In Disarray? May 31, 2022

    The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York and California.

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    Trump's Revenge Primary In Georgia Fails May 25, 2022

    The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota.

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    Are Trump's Endorsees About To Lose In Georgia? May 23, 2022

    The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment.

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    What Tuesday's Primaries Could Mean For November May 18, 2022

    The crew reacts to the results in Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days.

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    Who Will Win The GOP's Senate Primary In Pennsylvania? May 17, 2022

    The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms.

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    The Politics Of Anti-Critical Race Theory Laws May 12, 2022

    Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice.

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    How The Fight Over Abortion Will Play Out In Red States May 10, 2022

    The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups

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    The Ohio Primary And Draft SCOTUS Opinion May 04, 2022

    In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade.

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    Our First 2024 Democratic Primary Draft May 03, 2022

    The crew follows up on last week’s Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting.

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    How A Struggle Between Elites And Populists Has Shaped The Right Apr 28, 2022

    As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. In Matthew Continetti's new book, “The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism,” he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been.

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    Our First 2024 GOP Primary Draft Apr 25, 2022

    The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft).

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    Why A Once-Fringe Candidate Is Now A Serious Contender For The French Presidency Apr 21, 2022

    Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda.

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    How Old Is Too Old For Elected Office? Apr 18, 2022

    The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries.

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    Why Inflation Is Sparking Economic Pessimism Apr 14, 2022

    Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy.

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    Why Alaskans Aren’t In A Rush To Send Sarah Palin To Washington Apr 11, 2022

    The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically.

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    Americans Think The War On Drugs Failed. Do Politicians Agree? Apr 07, 2022

    As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding.

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    Are Both Liz Cheney And Madison Cawthorn In Primary Trouble? Apr 04, 2022

    The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and won’t accept. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the “Parental Rights In Education Bill” -- or what its critics call the “Don’t Say Gay Bill” -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week.

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    How Education Became Today's Wedge Issue Mar 31, 2022

    Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. politics.

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    Should The Iowa Caucuses Go Away? Mar 28, 2022

    The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works.

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    The Partisan Grandstanding At Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Hearings Mar 24, 2022

    Since Jackson’s confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings – similar to past ones – were more about politics. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be.

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    The Most Consequential Governor’s Races Mar 21, 2022

    Thirty-six governor’s seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governor’s race. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hottest legislative topic in Washington: permanent Daylight Saving Time.

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    What Is Ron DeSantis's Vision For The GOP? Mar 17, 2022

    The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

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    The Political Price Of Gas Mar 14, 2022

    The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life has changed in that time.

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    How To Think About The Risk Of Nuclear War Mar 10, 2022

    Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict.

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    Is Putin Actually Popular In Russia? Mar 07, 2022

    The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine.

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    Unity From Biden, Disunity In Texas Mar 02, 2022

    It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Biden’s first “real” State of the Union speech.

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    Americans Are Unified Against Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine Feb 28, 2022

    The crew discusses how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression.

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    What Do Pollsters Know About Happiness? Feb 22, 2022

    In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans’ satisfaction with their own lives and the direction of the country. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.’s involvement in Ukraine.

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    Is Boris Johnson Finished? Feb 17, 2022

    Hosts of the British “Talking Politics” podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the Conservative Party have soured on Johnson in a way that Republicans never soured on President Trump, despite his numerous scandals. They also reflect on how British and American politics changed during the period when "Brexit" and "Trump" dominated the two countries’ news cycles and consider their lasting impact.

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    Valentine's Day, Inflation and GOP Infighting Feb 14, 2022

    The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. And they try to guess what Americans think about love and relationships in a Valentine's Day-themed game.

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    Americans Aren’t As Polarized As The News Makes It Seem Feb 10, 2022

    Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue.

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    Americans Say They're Over COVID-19. What Does That Mean? Feb 07, 2022

    The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments.

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    Why The GOP Has Made Gains With Latino Voters Feb 03, 2022

    Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened.

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    The 7 Most Important Senate Races, Ranked Jan 31, 2022

    The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year.

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    Emergency Podcast: Justice Breyer Is Retiring Jan 26, 2022

    The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer — a more moderate Justice among the Liberals — retires. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the country’s broader political environment in a Midterm election year.

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    Why Politicians — Like Manchin And Sinema — Go Rogue Jan 24, 2022

    The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling."

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    Don't Pay Attention To That Outlier Poll You Saw Jan 18, 2022

    The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting.

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    How Likely Is Another Civil War? Jan 13, 2022

    In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. In her new book “How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them,” Barbara F Walter writes “we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.” It’s a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it.

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    How The 2022 Midterms Might Play Out Jan 10, 2022

    The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted.

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    Why Jan. 6th Was Not A Turning Point Jan 05, 2022

    In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today.

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    What Americans Thought About COVID, Inflation And Britney Spears In 2021 Dec 27, 2021

    The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears.

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    Why Manchin Is A 'No' On Build Back Better Dec 21, 2021

    President Biden’s $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. The crew discusses Manchin’s rationale and where Democrats might go from here. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged.

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    How Much Have Hispanic Voters Shifted Toward The GOP? Dec 13, 2021

    According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent.

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    Is The Media Tougher On Biden Than Trump? Dec 09, 2021

    Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data."

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    Why Stacey Abrams And Beto O’Rourke Are Going For It In 2022 Dec 06, 2021

    On today’s Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. So, the usual.

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    What SCOTUS — And Americans — Think About Overturning Roe Dec 02, 2021

    The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The question is whether Mississippi’s law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy.

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    About Those 2024 Polls ... Nov 29, 2021

    The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024.

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    What The Two Parties Should Be Thankful For Nov 22, 2021

    The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving.

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    What 44 Days In Las Vegas Taught Nate Silver Nov 18, 2021

    Nate Silver is back from his book research/poker trip to Las Vegas, and in this installment, he sits down with Galen Druke to answer listener questions and talk about what he learned on the strip.

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    The Pollster Who Wants To Quit Horse-Race Polling Nov 15, 2021

    We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled “‘I blew it.’ Maybe it’s time to get rid of election polls.” We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff.

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    This Is What Will Determine The Future Of Climate Change Nov 12, 2021

    On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries’ climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important.

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    Which Election Day Hot Takes Do You Buy? Nov 08, 2021

    Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. The crew runs down a list of theories in a game of ‘Buy, Sell, or Hold’ to discuss what evidence, if any, supports some of these arguments. They also debate how reliable exit polls are in determining what motivates voters and consider how Democrats were able to overcome intra-party disagreements to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill.

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    A Good Election Night For Republicans Nov 03, 2021

    In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country.

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    Election Day 2021: Virginia And Beyond Nov 01, 2021

    The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling.

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    Brad Raffensperger On The 2020 Election And Beyond Oct 28, 2021

    We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. He rejected the president’s requests and has consistently spoken out against conspiracy theories surrounding the election. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. Raffensperger's new book is called “Integrity Counts."

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    What Are The Most Popular Parts Of The Democrats’ Spending Bill? Oct 25, 2021

    The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats’ spending bill.

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    Adam Schiff Is Worried About American Democracy Oct 21, 2021

    Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could."

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    What Makes A Party Or Politician Popular? Oct 18, 2021

    The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governor’s race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana.

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    What Happens When Local News Disappears Oct 14, 2021

    Local news is disappearing across the country. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by more than half. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and what happens when it erodes.

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    The Politics Of The Debt Ceiling Oct 11, 2021

    The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. They also have a “good or bad use of polling” on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company.

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    Why The U.S. Was Unprepared For COVID-19 Oct 07, 2021

    Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss America’s unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the next pandemic.

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    Does One Party Win More Political Fights Than The Other? Oct 04, 2021

    The crew tries to unpack what’s driving Democrats’ legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats.

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    How To Make Sense Of The Latest Crime Data Sep 30, 2021

    The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data.

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    Will Democrats Get Their Agenda Passed? Sep 27, 2021

    The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity.

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    What You Need To Know About Canada And Germany's Elections Sep 23, 2021

    It's a big election week for liberal democracies. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing.

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    Can An Anti-Trump Republican Win A Primary? Sep 20, 2021

    Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNN’s new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling.

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    The California Recall Election Wasn't Close Sep 15, 2021

    In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin.

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    Will Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Work? Sep 13, 2021

    The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Biden’s sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Biden’s is legal.

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    Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days Sep 07, 2021

    American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election.

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    Why Most Abortions Are Currently Banned In Texas Sep 02, 2021

    Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general.

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    The War In Afghanistan Is Officially Ending. Now What? Aug 30, 2021

    As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administration’s handling of the end of the war.

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    Model Talk: How Climate Models Work Aug 19, 2021

    Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper.

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    What Americans Think About Ending The War In Afghanistan Aug 16, 2021

    The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data.

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    Emergency Podcast: Cuomo Resigns Aug 10, 2021

    The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New York’s 2022 Democratic primary race for governor.

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    Why Has Biden's Approval Rating Fallen? Aug 09, 2021

    The crew discusses why Biden’s favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEight’s Redistricting Tracker.

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    How Democrats Are Reacting To Cuomo's Harassment Scandal Aug 04, 2021

    The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden.

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    Why The California Recall Has Grown More Competitive Aug 02, 2021

    The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom.

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    What Americans Think About Vaccines, Masks And Shutdowns As Covid Cases Spike Jul 29, 2021

    The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic.

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    Does Running For President Always Help Your Career? Jul 26, 2021

    Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020.

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    The Great Inflation Debate Jul 22, 2021

    According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans’ leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices.

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    Are There Really Five Political Parties In America? Jul 19, 2021

    Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate.

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    Americans And Experts Agree That Democracy Is Struggling Jul 15, 2021

    We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems.

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    A Record Number Of Americans Are "Thriving." What Does That Mean? Jul 12, 2021

    The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a recent Gallup poll reporting that a record number of Americans are “thriving” is a “good or bad use of polling.”

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    Why The Conspiracy Theories Behind Jan 6 Haven’t Gone Away Jul 08, 2021

    Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics.

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    What The Electorate Looked Like In 2020 Jul 06, 2021

    Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. It’s generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The crew talks about the most notable data points and what it means for Democratic and Republican strategies going forward. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election.

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    What We Learned From This Supreme Court Term Jul 02, 2021

    On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the term’s major cases, particularly on election law.

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    Why Biden Wants A Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan Jun 28, 2021

    A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans.

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    Nate And Galen Answer Your Questions Jun 24, 2021

    Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners’ questions about politics, polling and more. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches.

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    What Comes Next For Democrats’ Election Legislation Jun 22, 2021

    The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures.

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    Why Progressives Have Struggled In The NYC Mayoral Race Jun 17, 2021

    Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on what’s happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly.

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    The Democratic Establishment Keeps Winning Elections Jun 14, 2021

    The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over how much wealthy Americans and corporations should be paying in taxes. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling.

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    How Same-Sex Marriage Broke Through Partisan Politics Jun 10, 2021

    During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The data behind that evolution is striking. At the beginning of the millennium, about two-thirds of Americans opposed same-sex marriage, and a third supported it. Today those numbers have flipped. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. His new book is called "The Engagement: America’s Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage."

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    One Special Election Can’t Forecast The Midterms Jun 07, 2021

    Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator.

    They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020.

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    How The Politics Of Cities Shape The Democratic Party Jun 04, 2021

    In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. In this installment, we put that primary in context by looking more broadly at the relationship between urban centers and the Democratic Party.

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    The 2022 Primaries Are Heating Up Jun 01, 2021

    The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling."

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    What NYC’s Mayoral Race Can Tell The Rest Of Us May 28, 2021

    New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election.

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    A Year Of Protest After George Floyd's Death May 24, 2021

    History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol.

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    20 Questions With Nate And Galen May 21, 2021

    Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds.

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    Can You Win A Fight With A Goose? May 17, 2021

    The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system.

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    Introducing 'In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson' May 13, 2021

    Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnson’s time in office. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson."

    -

    In her first-ever diary entry, recorded eight days after President John F. Kennedy is assassinated, Lady Bird presents a dramatic, cinematically detailed moment-by-moment account of those terrible hours in Dallas, and the days that follow. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of them, one that dates back to the Kennedy’s arrival in Washington in the mid-50s, and hear fascinating observations these women make about each other.

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    If Liz Cheney Doesn't Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does? May 10, 2021

    What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Florida’s new voting law tell us about the GOP’s efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party’s larger motivations?

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    How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior May 06, 2021

    The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown."

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    Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas May 03, 2021

    The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos.

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    Biden's First 100 Days Apr 29, 2021

    The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress.

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    A Majority Of Americans Think Climate Change Should Be A Priority Apr 26, 2021

    The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030.

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    Americans Are Losing Their Religion. That's Changing Politics. Apr 22, 2021

    Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics.

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    Celebrity Candidates Are Here To Stay Apr 19, 2021

    The idea of the celebrity politician isn’t going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study reparations for slavery was voted out of committee for the first time since it was introduced in Congress in 1989.

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    How Opinion On Policing Has Changed Since Last Summer Apr 15, 2021

    We look at two of this week’s biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine.

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    Americans Are More Independent But Just As Partisan Apr 12, 2021

    The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys.

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    Will Trump's Gains With Latino Voters Last? Apr 08, 2021

    Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why.

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    How Bipartisan Is Democrats' Infrastructure Plan? Apr 05, 2021

    The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses.

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    Elections To Watch In 2021 Apr 01, 2021

    The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats.

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    Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy Mar 29, 2021

    The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term.

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    The Gold Standard For Polling Has Changed Mar 25, 2021

    Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings.

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    The Attacks In Atlanta May Activate Asian Americans Politically Mar 22, 2021

    The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades.

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    How The Culture Wars Of The 2020s Are Shaping Our Politics Mar 18, 2021

    Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded.

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    Will The Stimulus Bill Boost Democrats' Electoral Prospects? Mar 15, 2021

    The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms.

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    Did Joe Biden Get Lucky In 2020? Mar 11, 2021

    With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, “Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency.” The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill.

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    Cuomo's Political Future Is Unclear Mar 09, 2021

    The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states.

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    How The Black Church Has Shaped American Politics Mar 04, 2021

    This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and beyond. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBS’s recent documentary series “The Black Church."

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    Is CPAC Representative Of The GOP? Mar 01, 2021

    The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster.

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    What The White House Thinks The Economy Needs Feb 25, 2021

    Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why.

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    Democrats' COVID Relief Bill Is Popular Feb 23, 2021

    The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling.

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