FiveThirtyEight Politics

The 2022 Forecast Is Live And ‘Model Talk’ Returns! Jun 30, 2022

The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast.

What The Politics Of Abortion Look Like Now Jun 28, 2022

The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections.

Emergency Podcast: Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade Jun 24, 2022

Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion.

Are 1 Percent Of Americans Evil? Jun 21, 2022

The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization.

More Trouble For Democrats In The Rio Grande Valley Jun 15, 2022

Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texas’s 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries.

Are Centrists The Most Powerful Politicians? Jun 13, 2022

The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaska’s special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend.

Were The California Primaries A Blow To The Progressive Movement? Jun 08, 2022

The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances.

The Democratic Divides In California Jun 06, 2022

The crew previews California’s primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans’ superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings.

Are Democrats Actually In Disarray? May 31, 2022

The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York and California.

Trump's Revenge Primary In Georgia Fails May 25, 2022

The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota.

Are Trump's Endorsees About To Lose In Georgia? May 23, 2022

The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment.

What Tuesday's Primaries Could Mean For November May 18, 2022

The crew reacts to the results in Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days.

Who Will Win The GOP's Senate Primary In Pennsylvania? May 17, 2022

The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms.

The Politics Of Anti-Critical Race Theory Laws May 12, 2022

Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice.

How The Fight Over Abortion Will Play Out In Red States May 10, 2022

The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups

The Ohio Primary And Draft SCOTUS Opinion May 04, 2022

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade.

Our First 2024 Democratic Primary Draft May 03, 2022

The crew follows up on last week’s Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting.

How A Struggle Between Elites And Populists Has Shaped The Right Apr 28, 2022

As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. In Matthew Continetti's new book, “The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism,” he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been.

Our First 2024 GOP Primary Draft Apr 25, 2022

The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft).

Why A Once-Fringe Candidate Is Now A Serious Contender For The French Presidency Apr 21, 2022

Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda.

How Old Is Too Old For Elected Office? Apr 18, 2022

The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries.

Why Inflation Is Sparking Economic Pessimism Apr 14, 2022

Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy.

Why Alaskans Aren’t In A Rush To Send Sarah Palin To Washington Apr 11, 2022

The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically.

Americans Think The War On Drugs Failed. Do Politicians Agree? Apr 07, 2022

As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding.

Are Both Liz Cheney And Madison Cawthorn In Primary Trouble? Apr 04, 2022

The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and won’t accept. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the “Parental Rights In Education Bill” -- or what its critics call the “Don’t Say Gay Bill” -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week.

How Education Became Today's Wedge Issue Mar 31, 2022

Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. politics.

Should The Iowa Caucuses Go Away? Mar 28, 2022

The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works.

The Partisan Grandstanding At Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Hearings Mar 24, 2022

Since Jackson’s confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings – similar to past ones – were more about politics. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be.

The Most Consequential Governor’s Races Mar 21, 2022

Thirty-six governor’s seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governor’s race. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hottest legislative topic in Washington: permanent Daylight Saving Time.

What Is Ron DeSantis's Vision For The GOP? Mar 17, 2022

The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

The Political Price Of Gas Mar 14, 2022

The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life has changed in that time.

How To Think About The Risk Of Nuclear War Mar 10, 2022

Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict.

Is Putin Actually Popular In Russia? Mar 07, 2022

The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine.

Unity From Biden, Disunity In Texas Mar 02, 2022

It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Biden’s first “real” State of the Union speech.

Americans Are Unified Against Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine Feb 28, 2022

The crew discusses how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression.

What Do Pollsters Know About Happiness? Feb 22, 2022

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans’ satisfaction with their own lives and the direction of the country. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.’s involvement in Ukraine.

Is Boris Johnson Finished? Feb 17, 2022

Hosts of the British “Talking Politics” podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the Conservative Party have soured on Johnson in a way that Republicans never soured on President Trump, despite his numerous scandals. They also reflect on how British and American politics changed during the period when "Brexit" and "Trump" dominated the two countries’ news cycles and consider their lasting impact.

Valentine's Day, Inflation and GOP Infighting Feb 14, 2022

The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. And they try to guess what Americans think about love and relationships in a Valentine's Day-themed game.

Americans Aren’t As Polarized As The News Makes It Seem Feb 10, 2022

Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue.

Americans Say They're Over COVID-19. What Does That Mean? Feb 07, 2022

The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments.

Why The GOP Has Made Gains With Latino Voters Feb 03, 2022

Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened.

The 7 Most Important Senate Races, Ranked Jan 31, 2022

The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year.

Emergency Podcast: Justice Breyer Is Retiring Jan 26, 2022

The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer — a more moderate Justice among the Liberals — retires. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the country’s broader political environment in a Midterm election year.

Why Politicians — Like Manchin And Sinema — Go Rogue Jan 24, 2022

The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling."

Don't Pay Attention To That Outlier Poll You Saw Jan 18, 2022

The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting.

How Likely Is Another Civil War? Jan 13, 2022

In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. In her new book “How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them,” Barbara F Walter writes “we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.” It’s a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it.

How The 2022 Midterms Might Play Out Jan 10, 2022

The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted.

Why Jan. 6th Was Not A Turning Point Jan 05, 2022

In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today.

What Americans Thought About COVID, Inflation And Britney Spears In 2021 Dec 27, 2021

The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears.

Why Manchin Is A 'No' On Build Back Better Dec 21, 2021

President Biden’s $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. The crew discusses Manchin’s rationale and where Democrats might go from here. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged.

How Much Have Hispanic Voters Shifted Toward The GOP? Dec 13, 2021

According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent.

Is The Media Tougher On Biden Than Trump? Dec 09, 2021

Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data."

Why Stacey Abrams And Beto O’Rourke Are Going For It In 2022 Dec 06, 2021

On today’s Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. So, the usual.

What SCOTUS — And Americans — Think About Overturning Roe Dec 02, 2021

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The question is whether Mississippi’s law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy.

About Those 2024 Polls ... Nov 29, 2021

The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024.

What The Two Parties Should Be Thankful For Nov 22, 2021

The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving.

What 44 Days In Las Vegas Taught Nate Silver Nov 18, 2021

Nate Silver is back from his book research/poker trip to Las Vegas, and in this installment, he sits down with Galen Druke to answer listener questions and talk about what he learned on the strip.

The Pollster Who Wants To Quit Horse-Race Polling Nov 15, 2021

We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled “‘I blew it.’ Maybe it’s time to get rid of election polls.” We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff.

This Is What Will Determine The Future Of Climate Change Nov 12, 2021

On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries’ climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important.

Which Election Day Hot Takes Do You Buy? Nov 08, 2021

Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. The crew runs down a list of theories in a game of ‘Buy, Sell, or Hold’ to discuss what evidence, if any, supports some of these arguments. They also debate how reliable exit polls are in determining what motivates voters and consider how Democrats were able to overcome intra-party disagreements to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill.

A Good Election Night For Republicans Nov 03, 2021

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country.

Election Day 2021: Virginia And Beyond Nov 01, 2021

The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling.

Brad Raffensperger On The 2020 Election And Beyond Oct 28, 2021

We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. He rejected the president’s requests and has consistently spoken out against conspiracy theories surrounding the election. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. Raffensperger's new book is called “Integrity Counts."

What Are The Most Popular Parts Of The Democrats’ Spending Bill? Oct 25, 2021

The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats’ spending bill.

Adam Schiff Is Worried About American Democracy Oct 21, 2021

Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could."

What Makes A Party Or Politician Popular? Oct 18, 2021

The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governor’s race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana.

What Happens When Local News Disappears Oct 14, 2021

Local news is disappearing across the country. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by more than half. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and what happens when it erodes.

The Politics Of The Debt Ceiling Oct 11, 2021

The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. They also have a “good or bad use of polling” on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company.

Why The U.S. Was Unprepared For COVID-19 Oct 07, 2021

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss America’s unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the next pandemic.

Does One Party Win More Political Fights Than The Other? Oct 04, 2021

The crew tries to unpack what’s driving Democrats’ legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats.

How To Make Sense Of The Latest Crime Data Sep 30, 2021

The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data.

Will Democrats Get Their Agenda Passed? Sep 27, 2021

The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity.

What You Need To Know About Canada And Germany's Elections Sep 23, 2021

It's a big election week for liberal democracies. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing.

Can An Anti-Trump Republican Win A Primary? Sep 20, 2021

Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNN’s new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling.

The California Recall Election Wasn't Close Sep 15, 2021

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin.

Will Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Work? Sep 13, 2021

The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Biden’s sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Biden’s is legal.

Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days Sep 07, 2021

American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election.

Why Most Abortions Are Currently Banned In Texas Sep 02, 2021

Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general.

The War In Afghanistan Is Officially Ending. Now What? Aug 30, 2021

As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administration’s handling of the end of the war.

Model Talk: How Climate Models Work Aug 19, 2021

Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper.

What Americans Think About Ending The War In Afghanistan Aug 16, 2021

The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data.

Emergency Podcast: Cuomo Resigns Aug 10, 2021

The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New York’s 2022 Democratic primary race for governor.

Why Has Biden's Approval Rating Fallen? Aug 09, 2021

The crew discusses why Biden’s favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEight’s Redistricting Tracker.

How Democrats Are Reacting To Cuomo's Harassment Scandal Aug 04, 2021

The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden.

Why The California Recall Has Grown More Competitive Aug 02, 2021

The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom.

What Americans Think About Vaccines, Masks And Shutdowns As Covid Cases Spike Jul 29, 2021

The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic.

Does Running For President Always Help Your Career? Jul 26, 2021

Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020.

The Great Inflation Debate Jul 22, 2021

According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans’ leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices.

Are There Really Five Political Parties In America? Jul 19, 2021

Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate.

Americans And Experts Agree That Democracy Is Struggling Jul 15, 2021

We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems.

A Record Number Of Americans Are "Thriving." What Does That Mean? Jul 12, 2021

The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a recent Gallup poll reporting that a record number of Americans are “thriving” is a “good or bad use of polling.”

Why The Conspiracy Theories Behind Jan 6 Haven’t Gone Away Jul 08, 2021

Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics.

What The Electorate Looked Like In 2020 Jul 06, 2021

Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. It’s generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The crew talks about the most notable data points and what it means for Democratic and Republican strategies going forward. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election.

What We Learned From This Supreme Court Term Jul 02, 2021

On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the term’s major cases, particularly on election law.

Why Biden Wants A Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan Jun 28, 2021

A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans.

Nate And Galen Answer Your Questions Jun 24, 2021

Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners’ questions about politics, polling and more. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches.

What Comes Next For Democrats’ Election Legislation Jun 22, 2021

The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures.

Why Progressives Have Struggled In The NYC Mayoral Race Jun 17, 2021

Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on what’s happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly.

The Democratic Establishment Keeps Winning Elections Jun 14, 2021

The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over how much wealthy Americans and corporations should be paying in taxes. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling.

How Same-Sex Marriage Broke Through Partisan Politics Jun 10, 2021

During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The data behind that evolution is striking. At the beginning of the millennium, about two-thirds of Americans opposed same-sex marriage, and a third supported it. Today those numbers have flipped. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. His new book is called "The Engagement: America’s Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage."

One Special Election Can’t Forecast The Midterms Jun 07, 2021

Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator.

They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020.

How The Politics Of Cities Shape The Democratic Party Jun 04, 2021

In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. In this installment, we put that primary in context by looking more broadly at the relationship between urban centers and the Democratic Party.

The 2022 Primaries Are Heating Up Jun 01, 2021

The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling."

What NYC’s Mayoral Race Can Tell The Rest Of Us May 28, 2021

New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election.

A Year Of Protest After George Floyd's Death May 24, 2021

History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol.

20 Questions With Nate And Galen May 21, 2021

Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds.

Can You Win A Fight With A Goose? May 17, 2021

The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system.

Introducing 'In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson' May 13, 2021

Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnson’s time in office. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson."

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In her first-ever diary entry, recorded eight days after President John F. Kennedy is assassinated, Lady Bird presents a dramatic, cinematically detailed moment-by-moment account of those terrible hours in Dallas, and the days that follow. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of them, one that dates back to the Kennedy’s arrival in Washington in the mid-50s, and hear fascinating observations these women make about each other.

If Liz Cheney Doesn't Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does? May 10, 2021

What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Florida’s new voting law tell us about the GOP’s efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party’s larger motivations?

How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior May 06, 2021

The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown."

Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas May 03, 2021

The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos.

Biden's First 100 Days Apr 29, 2021

The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress.

A Majority Of Americans Think Climate Change Should Be A Priority Apr 26, 2021

The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030.

Americans Are Losing Their Religion. That's Changing Politics. Apr 22, 2021

Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics.

Celebrity Candidates Are Here To Stay Apr 19, 2021

The idea of the celebrity politician isn’t going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study reparations for slavery was voted out of committee for the first time since it was introduced in Congress in 1989.

How Opinion On Policing Has Changed Since Last Summer Apr 15, 2021

We look at two of this week’s biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine.

Americans Are More Independent But Just As Partisan Apr 12, 2021

The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys.

Will Trump's Gains With Latino Voters Last? Apr 08, 2021

Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why.

How Bipartisan Is Democrats' Infrastructure Plan? Apr 05, 2021

The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses.

Elections To Watch In 2021 Apr 01, 2021

The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats.

Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy Mar 29, 2021

The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term.

The Gold Standard For Polling Has Changed Mar 25, 2021

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings.

The Attacks In Atlanta May Activate Asian Americans Politically Mar 22, 2021

The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades.

How The Culture Wars Of The 2020s Are Shaping Our Politics Mar 18, 2021

Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded.

Will The Stimulus Bill Boost Democrats' Electoral Prospects? Mar 15, 2021

The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms.

Did Joe Biden Get Lucky In 2020? Mar 11, 2021

With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, “Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency.” The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill.

Cuomo's Political Future Is Unclear Mar 09, 2021

The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states.

How The Black Church Has Shaped American Politics Mar 04, 2021

This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and beyond. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBS’s recent documentary series “The Black Church."

Is CPAC Representative Of The GOP? Mar 01, 2021

The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster.

What The White House Thinks The Economy Needs Feb 25, 2021

Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why.

Democrats' COVID Relief Bill Is Popular Feb 23, 2021

The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling.

How The Crisis In Texas Happened Feb 18, 2021

Texas has been in a dire situation this week. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Daniel Cohan joins FiveThirtyEight's Sarah Frostenson, Maggie Koerth and Galen Druke to discuss why the blackouts occurred, where responsibility lies and how politics responds to these kinds of crises.

Why Seven Republicans Voted To Convict Trump Feb 16, 2021

Nevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also dislodge New Hampshire from its position as the first primary in the nation. In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom.

The Meaning Of Democrats' Impeachment Argument Feb 12, 2021

While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications.

What Georgia Republicans' Proposed Voting Restrictions Would Do Feb 08, 2021

Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020.

What Could The GOP's Future Look Like? Feb 04, 2021

Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought.

Biden's Response To The Pandemic Feb 01, 2021

Kaiser Health News's Anna Maria Barry-Jester joins the crew to discuss how Biden's response to the pandemic is different from former President Trump's. They also discuss a recent poll showing that if Trump were to start a new "Patriot Party," it would have significant draw among Republican voters.

The Final Model Talk Of 2020 Jan 28, 2021

Nate and Galen look back at the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs and discuss what the Democratic wins say about polling and what they mean for elections going forward.

Partisans Don't Just Disagree, They Hate One Another Jan 25, 2021

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Maggie Koerth join the podcast to discuss their reporting on partisan discord and violence in the United States. The crew also looks at the dynamics in Congress that will determine whether or not President Biden can pass his agenda.

The Biden Presidency Begins Jan 20, 2021

On the first podcast episode of the Biden presidency, the crew reacts to President Biden's inauguration speech -- particularly whether any attempt to unite the country will be successful -- and looks at what his policy plans are for his first week in office.

Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics? Jan 19, 2021

This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be.

Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment Jan 14, 2021

On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, HuffPost's polling editor, Ariel Edwards-Levy, joined Galen and Perry to discuss why the vote broke down the way it did, what the different camps within the GOP are and what happens next.

What Led To The Attack On The Capitol Jan 12, 2021

The crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and Republicans about how to hold President Trump legally and/or politically accountable for the attack.

What Will The GOP Do Now? Jan 07, 2021

The team reacts to Trump supporters violently occupying the U.S. Capitol and the Democratic victories in Georgia.

Trump's Fraud Obsession May Hurt The GOP In Georgia Jan 04, 2021

The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tia Mitchell joins the crew to discuss why Republicans are attempting to overturn the election. They also check in on the state of the runoffs in Georgia the day before Election Day.

Goodbye To 2020 Dec 28, 2020

In 2020's final installment of the podcast, the crew looks back at the year that was. They consider the most surprising political stories of the year, fess up to what they think they got right (or wrong) and answer questions from listeners. They also assess whether many pollsters' decision to sit out the Georgia Senate runoffs is a "good or bad use of polling."

Why Georgia Isn't Like Other Battleground States Dec 22, 2020

The crew debates whether the recent $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington that President-Elect Biden is inheriting. They also discuss what makes the runoff elections in Georgia different from elections in other battleground states and what we can learn about the Biden administration and the Democratic Party from his cabinet picks so far.

What Do 1,200 Books About Trump Really Tell Us? Dec 17, 2020

Carlos Lozada, the nonfiction book critic at the Washington Post, speaks with Galen Druke about what he learned from reading many of the books written about Trump from the past five years.

Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results Dec 14, 2020

The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. -- the pandemic and the election -- are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the pandemic and President Trump’s attempts to overturn the election are not over.

What's The Deal With Pardons? Dec 10, 2020

Galen speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about why presidents have the power to pardon, how that power has been used historically and how Trump's record compares.

The Electoral Challenges Facing The GOP Dec 09, 2020

The November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent president. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks why President Trump lost and considers the challenges facing the Republican Party electorally. They also check in on FiveThirtyEight's newly launched polling average of the Senate runoff elections in Georgia.

How To Make Polls Better Dec 04, 2020

Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them.

What Happened To Down-Ballot Democrats? Nov 30, 2020

The crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before Trump has even left the White House.

Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy Nov 23, 2020

Three weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team discusses the extent to which these anti-democratic efforts have been successful and what precedent they set going forward. They also consider the politics surrounding the current surge in coronavirus cases and ask what pollsters should do about falling response rates.

Will Georgia Stay Blue? Nov 19, 2020

Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are.

What Divided The Electorate In 2020 Nov 16, 2020

The crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation.

Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad Nov 12, 2020

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the error occurred and discuss the usefulness of polling and modeling going forward.

Where The Rest Of The 2020 Races Stand Nov 09, 2020

The crew reviews who is leading in the outstanding races and how the two parties are reacting to the results. They also discuss what positive vaccine news could mean for Biden's first term.

Biden Is Set To Be The Next President Nov 07, 2020

The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election.

Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania … And The Presidency Nov 06, 2020

As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden's margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of the podcast, the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what to make of the overall results at this point.

Biden's Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer Nov 05, 2020

After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president's path to victory is looking clearer. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the results so far, what's left to come in, and some of the trends in the data. They also begin to answer questions about polling errors in the 2020 election.

The Election Isn't Over Nov 04, 2020

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast reacts to the results so far on election night 2020.

Final Reflections Before The Election Nov 03, 2020

In the final pre-election installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that have defined the 2020 campaign and shares their guide of what to follow on election night.

What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us Nov 01, 2020

Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the podcast, the crew analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its final days.

How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic Oct 31, 2020

Our colleagues at PODCAST-19 look at the precautions states have taken to make sure people can vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic. Make sure to subscribe to PODCAST-19 wherever you get your podcasts.

Model Talk: There Still Isn't Evidence Of 'Shy' Trump Voters Oct 30, 2020

This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the key battleground states. They also address whether there is any reason to believe that "shy Trump voters" could provide the president with an upset win on Election Day. (The evidence suggests there isn't.)

The Under-Covered Stories Of The 2020 Election Oct 29, 2020

There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and also considers which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign.

How We Expect The Electorate To Look In 2020 Oct 28, 2020

In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago.

How The Media Projects The Winner Of An Election Oct 27, 2020

Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and the overall presidential race, as well as when we might be able to expect those projections.

October Surprises Don't Usually Decide Elections Oct 26, 2020

The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president.

Model Talk: National And District-Level Polls Disagree Oct 23, 2020

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of competitiveness in the 2020 election. They also answer listener questions.

The Second Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Is Here Oct 23, 2020

The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.

How Voting Is Going So Far Oct 21, 2020

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated.

The Most Competitive Races In 2020 Oct 20, 2020

Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning the election.

Embrace The Uncertainty Oct 19, 2020

The crew discusses how Biden's lead is similar or different from Clinton's in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue were they to win full control of government this fall.

Model Talk: Why Democrats' Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased Oct 16, 2020

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.

What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings Oct 15, 2020

Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from her nomination hearings and how she would shape the Court.

The Sun Belt Could Decide Control Of The Senate Oct 12, 2020

The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win.

Model Talk: Trump's Position Worsens Oct 09, 2020

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latests movements in the 2020 election forecasts.

Pence And Harris Evade Questions In VP Debate Oct 08, 2020

The crew reacts to the first and only vice presidential debate.

What We Know About The President's Health Oct 05, 2020

During the four days since President Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus, the public has received limited and conflicting information about his health status. To make sense of the limited information we do have, the crew spoke with emergency room doctor Craig Spencer and presidential scholar Lara Brown.

Emergency Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19 Oct 02, 2020

The podcast team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.

Is The Supreme Court Losing Legitimacy? Oct 01, 2020

In response to Republicans' move to fill a Supreme Court vacancy so close to the election, some Democrats have floated the idea of expanding or restructuring the court. In this installment of the podcast, law professor Daniel Epps speaks with Galen Druke about whether the legitimacy of the Supreme Court is in jeopardy and what kinds of reforms activists and scholars are considering.

Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate Sep 30, 2020

The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.

The Politics Of Trump's Tax Returns Sep 28, 2020

The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Trump paid $750 dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and no federal income tax during ten of the previous fifteen years due to reported business losses. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew weighs the potential political implications of the report.

Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power Sep 24, 2020

In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the 2020 election.

What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburg’s Seat Sep 21, 2020

So far, two Republican Senators -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- have announced their opposition to filling the Supreme Court seat that once belonged to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg prior to the 2020 election. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the political calculations for both Republicans and Democrats over how to proceed in replacing Ginsburg.

Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Vacancy Sep 19, 2020

In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the implications of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing and the new vacancy on the court.

Model Talk: Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate Sep 18, 2020

FiveThirtyEight has launched its 2020 Senate forecast model. In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the odds the chamber will flip.

Trump Narrows The Gap With Latino Voters Sep 14, 2020

The crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends amongst Latino voters. They also ask whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their biases and if scandals still matter.

How Ohio Is Preparing For A Pandemic Election Sep 11, 2020

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose speaks with Galen Druke about Ohio's preparations for Election Day amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Interesting Sep 08, 2020

The crew discusses which states could potentially be competitive in the 2020 election and asks, "good use of polling or bad use of polling?"

Model Talk: Trump's Electoral College Advantage Sep 03, 2020

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the 2020 presidential forecast has changed and answer questions from listeners.

The Media Is Getting Ahead Of Itself On Kenosha Aug 31, 2020

The crew looks at whether there is evidence for the idea that urban unrest will harm Biden's chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Rep. Joe Kennedy and Sen. Ed Markey.

RNC Night 4: How Trump Used His 5,680 Words Aug 28, 2020

The crew reacts to the fourth and final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

RNC Night 3: Pence Makes A Law And Order Appeal Aug 27, 2020

The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

RNC Night 2: Cognitive Dissonance Aug 26, 2020

The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

RNC Night 1: Trumpism vs. Traditionalism Aug 25, 2020

The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

DNC Night 4: Biden Pitches Himself As A Good Guy Aug 21, 2020

The crew reacts to the fourth night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

DNC Night 3: Harris Fills A Historic Role Aug 20, 2020

The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.