FiveThirtyEight Politics

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Reaction Podcast: Vance Is Trump’s Running Mate Jul 15, 2024

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In this bonus installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses former president Donald Trump’s choice of running mate: Ohio senator J.D. Vance. The “Hillbilly Elegy” author is unique among past running mates for his lack of political experience — and for his beard. What kind of running mate might he be? And will it matter?

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Making Sense Of Political Violence In America Jul 15, 2024

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In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump. They discuss the impact on the country and community and also look at public opinion data on political violence. They also look at historical examples of such violence and track how lawmakers are reacting today.

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The Biden Stalemate Continues Jul 11, 2024

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The purgatory continues. The number of lawmakers saying President Joe Biden should not run for reelection continues to tick up, while Biden’s answer — that he is staying in the race — remains the same. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we look at data on which lawmakers are calling on Biden to step aside and who is continuing to support him.

The RNC also released its proposed platform this week and we use a good or bad use of polling example to better understand whether former President Donald Trump’s (and Biden's) policies are popular.

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Can Biden Hold On? Jul 08, 2024

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As the Senate returns to Washington for the first time since President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the president appears to be digging in his heels. In a letter to Democratic lawmakers sent Monday morning, Biden was adamant that he is staying in the presidential race. But it does not seem like the interested parties are taking Biden’s insistence as the final word on the issue. With just six weeks until the Democratic National Convention, how does this all end?

And following landmark elections in Britain and France, we travel across the pond for an international edition of “good or bad use of polling.”

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Exclusive: President Biden Sits Down with ABC News Jul 06, 2024

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President Joe Biden, in an exclusive interview with ABC News anchor George Stephanopoulos that aired Friday night, acknowledged last week's debate was a "bad episode" but pushed back strongly against broader questions about his age and mental fitness. Biden's sit-down with ABC News was his first television interview since the June 27 debate.

Hear the interview now, in its entirety, on ABC News' "Start Here" podcast: Apple Podcasts (http://bit.ly/3VmuAnm), Spotify (http://bit.ly/3j947fm), Amazon Music (http://bit.ly/3FGMkDT), or wherever you listen.

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Making Sense Of A Historic British Election Jul 04, 2024

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Happy Fourth of July! To celebrate our independence from Great Britain, the 538 Politics podcast is actually turning its attention to the United Kingdom's upcoming election.

The U.K. is holding its first national election in four and a half years on July 4 and the polling suggests the Labour Party will make historic gains, booting Conservatives from power for the first time in 14 years. To get a sense of the forces behind the dramatic shift since 2019, two longtime friends of the podcast weigh in.

Helen Thompson is a professor of political economy at Cambridge University and host of the "These Times" podcast. David Runciman is a professor of politics at Cambridge and host of the podcast "Past Present Future."

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The Push For A Biden Replacement Becomes Real Jul 03, 2024

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The ground has started to shift beneath President Joe Biden's feet. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, multiple Democratic lawmakers raised questions about his viability as a candidate in 2024 and weighed in on who might replace him should he step aside.

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley about the latest data on how voters are reacting to Biden's debate performance and what could happen next.

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Presidential Immunity And More Debate Fallout Jul 01, 2024

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Since Thursday, the only story in American politics has been President Joe Biden's poor debate performance and what on earth Democrats are going to do about it. That was until today, when the Supreme Court ruled that American presidents have legal immunity for official acts. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, about the details of the Supreme Court's ruling. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich and Tia Yang discuss the continued fallout from the presidential debate.

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Reaction Podcast: A Rough Debate For Biden Jun 28, 2024

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Galen reacts to the first 2024 presidential debate between President Biden and former President Donald Trump with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik.

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What To Expect From The First Presidential Debate Jun 24, 2024

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This Thursday, President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head in the earliest presidential debate ever. It is also the first contest between a president and former president in over a century and the first debate not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether historical expectations for presidential debates will apply in this unique situation. They also dissect some questionable uses of polling and preview a couple of high-profile primary races in New York and Colorado.

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