FiveThirtyEight Politics

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The Case For And Against Ron DeSantis May 25, 2023

Show notes

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has officially entered the Twitter space ... er, presidential race. He kicked off his campaign in a conversation on a glitchy Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk and tech entrepreneur David Sacks on Wednesday. In his opening remarks, he stressed his electability and the ability to implement a policy platform that may not look all that different from that of former President Donald Trump.

In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what DeSantis's presidential bid will look like. In FiveThirtyEight's national GOP primary polling averages, Trump currently leads at around 54 percent with DeSantis at around 20 percent, although these things can change quickly in a primary environment. In fact, they already have: Just a couple months ago, Trump’s lead over DeSantis was half of what it is today.

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Can Tim Scott's Optimism Win Over The GOP? May 22, 2023

Show notes

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast gets ready for a big week in politics. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott officially kicked off his presidential campaign in North Charleston Monday morning. We also expect the long-teased Ron DeSantis presidential campaign to become a reality this week. And, according to the Treasury Department we are just a week or so away from a possible default on the nation’s debt. National politics reporter at the AP Meg Kinnard and Data Columnist at the Washington Post join the crew to weigh in.

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Is The Eurovision Song Contest Rigged? May 18, 2023

Show notes

Since 1956, European countries have been gathering each year to compete in the Eurovision song contest -- a competition of largely pop and techno artists that can often feel like a parody of European tastes in music. There have long been accusations of bias in the voting process and last Saturday's competition -- which Sweden won -- was no exception. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with statistics and health economics professor Gianluca Baio, who created a model to determine whether there really are biases advantaging or disadvantaging certain nations.

Galen also speaks with Courtney Kennedy, vice president of methods and innovation at the Pew Research Center, who recently published a study showing that the polling industry of today bears little semblance to the polling industry at the start of the century. The days of real human beings randomly dialing landline phones are gone, but what does that mean for the accuracy of public opinion research?

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Why So Many Americans Trust The Weather Channel May 15, 2023

Show notes

On Tuesday, voters are heading to the polls in at least three competitive races: the Kentucky Republican gubernatorial primary, the Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary and the Jacksonville mayoral election. In this installment of the podcast, Galen and Nathaniel preview the state of those three races. They also speak with YouGov's Linley Sanders about a new poll showing that Democrats broadly trust news outlets more than Republicans, including even some right-leaning news outlets. And they look at how the public is reacting to last week's scandals involving former President Donald Trump and New York Rep. George Santos.

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How Immigration Shapes American Politics May 11, 2023

Show notes

Title 42 is expiring on Thursday night, a pandemic-era rule allowing the U.S. government to turn away asylum seekers at the border as a public health measure. This comes at a time when apprehensions at the border are already at record highs and Americans give President Biden some of his lowest ratings on his handling of immigration.

In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Georgetown economics professor Anna Maria Mayda about what Americans think of immigration and why, its impacts on the U.S. and its politics, and how that compares with other countries.

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Does It Matter If King Charles Is Popular? May 08, 2023

Show notes

King Charles III was crowned over the weekend, which led to a lot of polls comparing his popularity to that of other members of the royal family. Long story short, the numbers aren’t great, but in some ways that's beside the point. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks if polling non-democratic institutions is a good use of polling.

They also look at a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll showing both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leading Biden in a very early 2024 matchup. And they talk about the 2024 Senate races that are taking shape. Republican challengers to vulnerable Democratic incumbents are announcing their bids, and a number of them are repeat candidates from the 2022 midterms.

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How Climate Change Will Reshape Where Americans Live May 04, 2023

Show notes

For decades, Americans have been moving South and West. That migration pattern was visible in political terms when seven congressional districts moved between states after the 2020 census, and it continues to be visible in the booming construction and job markets in cities across the Sun Belt.

In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with author Jake Bittle, who argues that it’s only a matter of time before those trends reverse, or at least shift. However, as he writes in his new book, "The Great Displacement," this time it won’t be cheap housing, low taxes and plentiful jobs that attract people to new places. It will be a harshening climate that pushes them away.

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Where Biden Stands Heading Into 2024 May 01, 2023

Show notes

President Biden announced his reelection campaign last Tuesday, a widely expected move that also brings us one step closer to a possible rematch of the 2020 election. The crew talks about the challenges and advantages that the campaign will bring.

They also discuss last week's decision from the North Carolina Supreme Court, clearing the way for partisan gerrymandering in the state. And they ask whether Americans can be trusted to reliably tell pollsters which high school cliques they belonged to.

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Are America's Favorite Governors Really All Republicans? Apr 24, 2023

Show notes

Congress returned from recess last week to two ongoing conflicts. One was Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s absence from the Senate, stalling the process by which Democrats can approve their judicial nominees. The other was what to do about the debt ceiling, which has already been breached and could lead to the U.S. government running out of money as early as June. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the latest developments and what Americans think about it all.

They also dig into new data on America’s most and least popular senators and governors, and ask which animals American are and aren't willing to eat.

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Live From New York: It's The FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast! Apr 21, 2023

Show notes

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast held a live taping at The Bell House in Brooklyn on Wednesday night, its first return to a live venue in New York City since the pandemic. Nate Silver and Galen Druke dissect a recent poll suggesting 30 percent of New Yorkers want to leave the state, challenge ChatGPT to see if it can replace their jobs and discuss the current state of the 2024 Republican primary. They also welcome a surprise guest and an audience member to play a round of New York City-themed trivia.

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