FiveThirtyEight Politics

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How Worried Should Democrats Be About The Polls? Mar 18, 2024

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The presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses whether President Joe Biden's dismissal of polls because of declining response rates is fair.

They also reexamine a viral poll from late last year that suggested 20 percent of young Americans think the Holocaust is a myth. It turned out to likely be bogus. And they preview Tuesday's primary in Ohio that will determine which Republican runs against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

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Do Campaign Stops Actually Matter? Mar 14, 2024

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After Tuesday’s primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mathematically clinched their parties’ nominations. And now, it’s off to the races. Over the past week, Biden has made campaign stops in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump was also in Georgia last weekend and he’ll be in Ohio on Saturday.

These kinds of campaign stops are a cornerstone of presidential campaigns and we can expect a lot more of them between now and November. There’s only one problem: According to political scientist Chris Devine, they don’t actually work. At least, not all that well and not in the ways you’d expect. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Devine talks about his recently published book called, “I’m Here to Ask for Your Vote: How Presidential Campaign Visits Influence Voters."

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Does Gen Z Really Care More About That Viral TikTok Than Politics? Mar 11, 2024

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The general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it with a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” What percentage of Americans think the country is on the right track? Or that their preferred candidate will win?

They also ask whether a poll suggesting that Gen Z voters are paying more attention to viral TikToks than the Alabama Supreme Court ruling on in vitro fertilization is a “good or bad use of polling.”

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A Very Political State Of The Union Mar 08, 2024

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In this late night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Biden's State of the Union speech and Alabama Sen. Katie Britt's rebuttal. Both put top 2024 campaign issue front and center.

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Super Tuesday Brings A Couple Surprises Mar 06, 2024

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In a late-night podcast, the crew reacts to the Super Tuesday results, including a win by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Vermont and a win by entrepreneur Jason Palmer in American Samoa.

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What To Watch For On Super Tuesday Mar 05, 2024

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Super Tuesday is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews what we can expect and debates whether any of it really matters. Later in the show, Atlanta Journal-Constitution Washington Correspondent Tia Mitchell joins and they turn their focus to Washington, D.C., to discuss Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s announcement that he will soon step down as head of the Senate Republican Conference and how Congress is responding to the recent ruling by the Alabama Supreme Court regarding in vitro fertilization.

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What To Make Of The Protest Votes In Michigan Feb 28, 2024

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The Michigan primary resulted in easy victories for both former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, but it also laid bare some discontent in both parties. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Bridge Michigan politics reporter Jonathan Oosting, POLITICO senior Washington correspondent and co-author of Playbook Rachael Bade, and 538 director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris about Trump's and Biden's vulnerabilities within their own parties. Later in the show the crew turns its focus to Washington to discuss the looming partial government shutdown and how immigration is continuing to grow as a key issue for voters. They also question whether a recent poll using pictures of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a "good or bad use of polling?”

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After South Carolina Loss, What Is Nikki Haley's Plan? Feb 25, 2024

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In a late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to former President Donald Trump's win in South Carolina and asks what former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's plan is going forward.

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Foreign Policy Has Become A Family Feud Feb 22, 2024

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Both Democrats and Republicans are facing intraparty conflict over foreign policy, Democrats over the war in Gaza and Republicans over the war in Ukraine. Could these conflicts help determine who wins the presidency in November?

On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew invites Dina Smeltz, senior fellow on public opinion and foreign policy at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, to break down how the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine have divided the parties. They also preview the upcoming South Carolina primary race, and ask whether a recent poll of political scientists intending to create a ranking of American presidents was a good or bad use of polling.

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What Comes Next In Trump's Trials Feb 19, 2024

Show notes

This Presidents Day installment of the 538 Politics podcast grapples with a central question in the 2024 election: What are the legal limits of presidential behavior?

Former President Donald Trump is facing 91 criminal charges across four different cases as he campaigns for the White House. Law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss some of the recent developments in each of the cases and what to expect next.

Last week, the judge in the New York hush money case ruled that the trial will begin March 25, meaning it’s now expected to be the first of Trump's cases to be tried. Also, Fulton County DA Fani Willis testified in a hearing to dismiss her from the Georgia election case; the defendants are pushing to have her disqualified on the basis of an alleged conflict of interest.

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