Fault Lines

Latest Episodes:

Episode 280: West Africa's Democratic Woes: Sierra Leone's Failed Coup Nov 29, 2023

Show notes

Today, Jamil, Jess, Les, and Morgan discuss the failed coup that took place in Sierra Leone on Sunday, November 26. The coup attempt comes after a contentious election in June in which President Julius Maada Bio was reelected for a second term and on the heels of increased tensions in the West African region, highlighted by the eight military takeovers since 2020, including most recently in Niger and Gabon.

Should the U.S. be worried about the high number of coups? How must and should the Biden Administration readjust foreign assistance in the region in light of these developments? Are there larger forces in play and are outside actors like Russia’s Wagner Group or China fostering regional instability?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/28/world/africa/sierra-leone-arrests-attempted-coup.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67541285

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/26/sierra-leone-curfew-army-barracks-attack

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/sierra-leone-information-minister-says-weekend-attack-was-failed-coup-2023-11-28/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/28/sierra-leone-attacks-were-a-failed-coup-attempt-officials-say

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/27/africa/sierra-leone-military-barracks-foiled-attack-ignites-fears-over-coup-attempt/index.html

https://www.africanews.com/2023/11/28/coup-attempt-in-sierra-leone-authorities/

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@jamil_n_jaffer

@lestermunson

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Episode 279: Javier “Mad Man” Milei - What’s Next for Argentina? Nov 27, 2023

Show notes

Today, Jes, Les, and Jamil discuss the Argentinian presidential elections where the self-styled “anarcho-capitalist” candidate Javier Milei rode a wave of voter anger – including over skyrocketing inflation and national poverty rate of 40% - to claim victory. Milei has proposed dollarizing the economy, ditching the central bank, shrinking the federal government, and downgrading ties with Brazil and China.

Can President-Elect Milei achieve his promises without strong allies across government? What does the election of Milei mean for democratic norms in Latin America? Can Argentina distance truly themselves from China?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67509691

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/21/argentina-milei-election-latin-america/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-25/milei-s-softer-tone-shows-how-much-argentina-needs-china

https://apnews.com/article/milei-argentina-president-privatization-1a87d02035511982ab620104b9feb255

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/trump-tells-argentinas-president-elect-javier-milei-he-plans-to-visit-buenos-aires

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/25/argentina-milei-libertarian-agenda-history/

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@jamil_n_jaffer

@lestermunson

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Episode 278: DoD Breaks with Biden Over Deterrence Nov 20, 2023

Show notes

Today, Jamil, Les, and Morgan discuss the recent Washington Post story in which anonymous Defense Department officials express frustration with what they consider an incoherent strategy by the Biden Administration for countering attacks by Iranian proxies on US forces in Iraq and Syria. “There’s no clear definition of what we are trying to deter,” said one defense official. In an oped over the weekend, President Biden attempted to outline his foreign policy in the wake of the War in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas War without once mentioning Iran.

What should U.S. deterrence policy look like? Is our current strategy effective at preventing a wider conflict? and How do we ensure U.S. personnel are safe overseas?

Want to learn more about this topic? Check out these articles that our experts used to frame our discussion:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/19/iranian-proxy-attacks-us-troops/

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/iranian-proxies-continue-targeting-us-troops-syria-iraq-total-since-pentagon

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4314271-the-u-s-is-finally-hitting-back-at-irans-murderous-proxies/

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/esper-us-military-strikes-against-iranian-proxies-syria

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/18/joe-biden-gaza-hamas-putin/

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@jamil_n_jaffer

@lestermunson

@morganlroach

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Episode 277: Are Pandas and Fentanyl Enough? Nov 17, 2023

Show notes

Today, Jamil, Les, and Morgan discuss the meeting between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at APEC 2023 in San Francisco, the first face-to-face meeting in over a year and Xi’s first visit to the U.S. in six years.

The talks aimed to normalize relations at a time when the relationship between the U.S. in China has been fraught with tension. Topics discussed during the summit included re-establishing military-to-military communications, stopping fentanyl precursors from being shipped to the US, and sending us more pandas!

Shortly after the summit, though, President Biden (accurately) referred to President Xi as a dictator and many issues, including Chinese threats to Taiwan and IP theft and US export controls.

Was this summit all talk, or will we see a real reset? Is China’s effort to force the US to support reunification likely to make things more tense? Should we take a harder line with China diplomatically?

Want to learn more about this topic? Check out these articles that our experts used to frame our discussion:

https://www.npr.org/2023/11/16/1213401317/did-biden-and-chinas-xi-hit-a-reset-not-quite-but-they-did-agree-on-a-few-things

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4313668-xi-gets-standing-ovation-at-banquet-with-us-executives/

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/us/politics/biden-xi-china-power-balance.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/16/biden-xi-dictator-00127548

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@jamil_n_jaffer

@lestermunson

@morganlroach

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Episode 276: The U.S. Strikes Back in the Middle East - Is It Enough? Nov 15, 2023

Show notes

Today, Les, Jess, and Morgan discuss the third U.S. air strike in Syria, which occurred late on Sunday. These strikes come after at least 40 attacks against U.S. and coalition troops in Iraq and Syria by Iran-backed forces in recent weeks. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III told reporters, "These attacks must stop, and if they don't stop, then we won't hesitate to do what's necessary, again, to protect the troops." Austin said the latest air strikes in targeted facilities used by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and related groups.

Will the U.S. continue or ramp up strikes against Iranian-back proxies? Will these strikes effectively deter attacks on U.S. and coalition personnel? Is the Biden Administration overly concerned with potentially escalating the conflict?

Want to learn more about this topic? Check out these articles that our experts used to frame our discussion:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/12/us-airstrikes-iran-syria/

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-hints-more-strikes-unless-iran-linked-groups-halt-attacks-2023-11-13/

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@lestermunson

@notTVJessJones

@morganlroach

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Episode 275: Beijing-Biden Bay Area Showdown Nov 13, 2023

Show notes

Episode 275: Beijing-Biden Bay Area Showdown

Today, Les, Morgan and Andy discuss the APEC Summit that will be taking place in San Francisco, CA. The big news is that there will be a face-to-face meeting between President Biden, and China’s President Xi Jinping. However, China has been aggressive in the South China Sea, flying within 10 feet of American pilots, distracting American pilots with lasers, and conducting aggressive cyber-attacks against the U.S, and yet the Biden administration is advocating for stronger US-China military-military (mil-mil) relationship.

Are better mil-mil communications a ‘win’ for the Biden Administration? What are the Biden Administration’s achievements with negotiating with China ahead of the APEC Summit? What will the Biden Administration be able to achieve with President Biden’s and President Xi’s face-to-face meeting?

Want to learn more about this topic? Check out these articles that our experts used to frame our discussion:

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/what-it-took-to-get-biden-and-xi-to-the-table-b7a899c9

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/10/us/politics/biden-xi-meeting.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/08/business/economy/xi-jinping-american-business-leaders-dinner.html

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@lestermunson

@morganlroach

@AndyKeiser

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Episode 274: Pandas, Ports, and Competing with China’s BRI Nov 10, 2023

Show notes

Today, Les, Jess, Jamil, Morgan, and special guest John Lipsey all sit down together - in person! - to discuss America’s stolen pandas and the U.S. Development Finance Corporation’s (DFC) recent loan of $550 million to Sri Lanka to support the construction of a deep-water shipping terminal. This loan is a recent example of DFC’s efforts to support the building of global infrastructure, while also supporting U.S. foreign policy.

What’s the difference between China’s Belt and Road Initiative and America’s DFC lending? Can the US DFC compete with China’s BRI globally? Should we have let China take back our pandas?

Want to learn more about this topic? Check out these articles that our experts used to frame our discussion:

https://nationalzoo.si.edu/news/giant-pandas-depart-smithsonians-national-zoo-and-conservation-biology-institute-for-china

https://www.dfc.gov/media/press-releases/dfc-makes-more-91-billion-financial-commitments-fiscal-year-2023

https://www.csis.org/analysis/mission-creep-development-finance-corporation

https://fortune.com/2023/11/08/us-dfc-china-belt-and-road-553m-investment-sri-lanka-colombo-port/

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@notTVJessJones

@jamil_n_jaffer

@lestermunson

@morganlroach

@JohnCLipsey

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Episode 273: Zelensky Wants to Wage war, Not a Presidential Campaign Nov 08, 2023

Show notes

Today, Les, Jess, Jamil, and Morgan discuss Ukrainian President Zelenksy's decision to rule out holding presidential elections next year even though his 5-year term ends in March 2024. With millions displaced internally or abroad, hundreds of thousands of soldiers fighting on the frontlines, and the country under constant threat of Russian attacks, the possibility of administering a free, safe, and secure election seems nearly impossible.

Is it possible to administer an election without U.S. aid to Ukraine? Will the absence of democratic elections in Ukraine erode already decreasing support in Congress to provide more aid? Will Zelensky foes use his decision to attack him and Ukraine's commitment to democracy?

Want to learn more about this topic? Check out these articles that our experts used to frame our discussion:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4296123-ukraine-russia-war-volodymyr-zelensky-not-the-right-time-elections/

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-birthday-grenade-b1b82e4f84eb5a39286d1500cf49fcd1

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/11/07/exp-zelensky-ukraine-elections-110704aseg1-cnni-world.cnn

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-elections-war.html

https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/democracy-and-society/elections-in-times-of-war-6980/

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@notTVJessJones

@jamil_n_jaffer

@lestermunson

@morganlroach

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Episode 272: Democratic Fault Lines on Israel Nov 06, 2023

Show notes

Episode 272: Democratic Fault Lines on Israel

Today, Les, Jess, and Jamil discuss the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, the Biden Administration’s current policies in the region, and how the Israel-Hamas war may affect President Biden’s campaign in 2024. The group also discusses recent comments made by former President Barack Obama and Democratic strategist David Axelrod on the Biden Presidency and its Middle East policies.

Where does the current Democratic party stand on support for Israel? How might the Biden Administration’s support for Israel’s war against Hamas evolve as public and international support wanes? Who would even run for the Democratic nomination against President Biden?

Hear our experts debate these issues and more in 10 minutes on our latest episode of Fault Lines!

Want to learn more about this topic? Check out these articles that our experts used to frame our discussion:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/barack-obama-argues-all-of-us-are-complicit-in-israel-hamas-conflict-urges-acknowledgement-of-whole-truth/ar-AA1jqa5g

https://news.yahoo.com/former-obama-strategist-wonders-biden-174227003.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/05/israel-war-hamas-gaza-live-news-palestine/#link-YH6Y4KSRIRGUXN2E2CRBK7K5BA

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/05/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-67324897

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/blinken-seeks-to-balance-aid-for-palestinian-civilians-against-israeli-self-defense-b2c442ec

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@notTVJessJones

@jamil_n_jaffer

@lestermunson

Like what we're doing here?

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And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!

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Episode 271: Arms Control Talk - a Mushroom Cloud or a Fizzle? Nov 03, 2023

Show notes

Today, Les, Jess, Jamil, and Morgan discuss Russia’s withdrawal from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the global treaty banning nuclear weapons tests. Moscow says its de-ratification of the CTBT is merely designed to bring Russia into line with the U.S., which signed but never ratified the treaty, while others worry Russia is seeking to intimidate and evoke fear. All the while China and the United States are about to begin talks about nuclear arms control and non-proliferation.

Is Russia’s withdrawal from the CTBT symbolic, saber-rattling, or about something else? Does the war in Ukraine, which is entering its second winter, play into Russia’s decision? Will the Biden Administration's talks with China lead to an agreement or is it just lip-service?

Hear our experts debate these issues and more in 10 minutes on our latest episode of Fault Lines!

Want to learn more about this topic? Check out these articles that our experts used to frame our discussion:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-revokes-russias-ratification-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-2023-11-02/

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/test-ban-treaty-at-a-glance

https://www.icanw.org/what_is_the_nuclear_test_ban_treaty_and_why_is_russia_talking_about_leaving?locale=en

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-agrees-nuclear-arms-control-talks-with-us-wsj-2023-11-01/

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/china-agrees-to-arms-control-talks-with-u-s-87a44b38

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/us-nuclear-arsenal-can-deter-both-china-and-russia

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@notTVJessJones

@jamil_n_jaffer

@lestermunson