Fault Lines

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Episode 342: Biden’s Yellow (or Green) Light for Ukraine May 31, 2024

Show notes

Today, Jamil, Les, and Morgan discuss U.S. President Joe Biden’s (limited) decision to permit Ukraine to use (some) American-supplied weapons to strike targets inside of Russia. Under pressure from European allies, the Biden administration appears—once again—to have evolved (part of) its policy for the supply and use of US weapons, but the restrictions that remain in place will likely continue to hamstring Ukraine’s effort to retake the advantage and ultimately bring the war to a successful close.

Why has the Biden administration changed its policy on the use of U.S. weapons in Russia now? Should the Biden administration provide Ukraine with the means to fight—and win—this war and, so, should it have done so earlier? What end state does the Biden administration want? A Ukrainian win or a draw that allows Russia to fade with dignity? Is either outcome even an option?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/30/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-weapons.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/30/politics/biden-ukraine-limited-strikes-russia

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy770l9llnzo

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@lestermunson

@jamil_n_jaffer

@morganlroach

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We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/AbS9Dpd24Bg

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 341: An Icy Reception to the ICC May 29, 2024

Show notes

Today, Jamil, Jess, Les, and Morgan discuss recent developments amidst the Israel-Hamas war. The International Criminal Court’s prosecutor has sought arrest warrants for both the leadership of Hamas as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Additionally, Ireland, Spain, and Norway have officially recognized a Palestinian state leading Israel to recall their ambassadors in protest for “rewarding terror.”

What are the impacts of Western recognition of a Palestinian state? Will the ICC grant the arrest warrants, if so, will it matter? How does the ICC case and the Congressional backlash impact the Biden administration’s policy on Israel?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/05/20/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-the-warrant-applications-by-the-international-criminal-court/

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nn78r3w3ko

https://link.foreignpolicy.com/view/64427b64aced183da613ed70l47kv.ul4/e2af2a70

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/05/20/the-iccs-threat-to-arrest-binyamin-netanyahu-has-shocked-israel?utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_campaign=espresso.US&utm_content=the-world-in-brief-may-21st-2024&utm_term=05/21/24

https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2024/05/20/the_us_should_oppose_icc_attempts_to_target_israeli_officials_1032770.html

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@lestermunson

@NotTVJessJones

@jamil_n_jaffer

@morganlroach

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We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/S0_S8oR17r8

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 340: Biden's Kenyan Courtship May 24, 2024

Show notes

Today, Jamil, Jess, Les, and Morgan discuss President Biden hosting Kenyan President William Ruto for a state visit - the first state visit a U.S. president has held for a president of an African nation since 2008. Last night’s state dinner also marked the designation of Kenya as a U.S. Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA). This dinner took place during President Ruto’s three-day state visit that coincides with Kenya’s imminent deployment of forces to Haiti, as part of a U.N.-led, largely U.S.-financed effort to try to calm the ongoing humanitarian crisis.

Why has the United States designated Kenya a MNNA now? Is this elevation an attempt by the Biden Administration to make up for recent failures to engage with the continent? Can the United States do more to increase engagement?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!

https://apnews.com/article/state-dinner-kenya-biden-african-visit-74de529133275da0a146cf61cc211d82

https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/power/2024/05/23/kenya-state-dinner-biden-obama/

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp4421nx727o

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/21/kenya-america-ruto-africa/

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/22/kenya-non-nato-ally-status-visit-00159578

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/23/politics/biden-kenya-president-state-visit-china/index.html

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2024/05/23/a-new-military-era-for-the-us-and-kenya-kind-of-00159744

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@lestermunson

@NotTVJessJones

@jamil_n_jaffer

@morganlroach

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And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/czOdT2BL52E

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 339: A Nickel for Democracy May 22, 2024

Show notes

Today, Jamil, Jess, Les, and Morgan discuss this week's deadly riots in the French South Pacific territory of New Caledonia where there is upheaval over a constitutional amendment passed by lawmakers in Paris expanding suffrage in the territory and diluting indigenous voting power. French President Emmanuel Macron is visiting the territory today and has deployed an additional 1,500 troops to quell the violence in the strategically important territory which is the 3rd largest nickel producer in the world.

Is France’s constitutional amendment a genuine democratic push or an attempt to wield control of resources? Is France’s strong-arm approach to the protests a good strategy? How are China, Russia, and Azerbaijan impacting the unrest in New Caledonia?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-new-zealand-send-evacuation-flights-new-caledonia-2024-05-21/

https://www.wsj.com/world/behind-new-caledonias-riots-a-fight-over-vast-reserves-of-nickel-a73f6301

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/world/asia/new-caledonia-france-protest.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/15/why-riots-new-caledonia-france-voting

https://www.politico.eu/article/new-caledonia-france-brink-civil-war-nickel-gun-macron/

https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240517-why-did-france-block-tiktok-to-quell-unrest-in-new-caledonia

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@lestermunson

@NotTVJessJones

@jamil_n_jaffer

@morganlroach

Like what we're doing here?

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.

And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/ZsB9RBS6JZQ

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 338: Ebrahim Raisi Is Dead May 20, 2024

Show notes

Today, Jamil, Jess, Les, and Morgan discuss this weekend’s fatal helicopter crash in the mountainous border region between Azerbaijan and Iran that led to the deaths of both the President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, and Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian. The helicopter also carried the governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan province, a senior cleric from Tabriz, three crew members, and a Revolutionary Guard official.

How does this crash impact the succession order of Iran's Supreme Leader? How does this accident impact Israeli policy and the wider region? Does the accident provide an opportunity for the Biden administration to change its Iran policy?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/19/world/iran-president-crash

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/19/middleeast/iranian-president-raisi-helicopter-intl

https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/who-is-mohammad-mokhber-irans-interim-president-2024-05-20/

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@lestermunson

@NotTVJessJones

@jamil_n_jaffer

@morganlroach

Like what we're doing here?

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.

And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/kVt9zIMPxIk

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 337: Putin Bows to Xi in Beijing May 17, 2024

Show notes

Today, Jamil, Jess, Les, and Morgan discuss Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Beijing at the head of a large delegation to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Russian offensive toward Kharkiv. This marks the first international trip by President Putin since his recent re-election to his 5th term as President of Russia.

What message does this trip send? What role did the U.S. play in driving Russia closer to China? How does this trip impact U.S. partners and alliances?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/15/russia-vladimir-putin-china-xi-meeting/

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-visit-chinas-xi-deepen-strategic-partnership-2024-05-15/

https://www.reuters.com/world/top-takeaways-putins-trip-china-2024-05-16/

https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/16/putins-visit-to-china-heres-what-you-should-know

https://www.ft.com/content/f77028c8-c960-4d10-b0eb-4c511924a4d5

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@lestermunson

@NotTVJessJones

@jamil_n_jaffer

@morganlroach

Like what we're doing here?

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.

And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/nxuxAlqzQXo

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 336: Heavy Metal: Strategic Competition Persists May 15, 2024

Show notes

Today, Jamil, Jess, Les, and Bishop discuss … copper! A recent Wall Street Journal article highlights the increasing competition between China and the United States over obtaining the critical mineral, which is used in everything from electric vehicles, solar panels, to cutting-edge military equipment, and is found across Latin America and in Central Africa.

What is the Biden Administration's strategy to increase the US’ acquisition of copper? Is copper mining sustainable? How can the United States compete with China on the critical mineral front?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!

https://www.wsj.com/business/why-the-world-has-gone-cuckoo-for-copper-ef8c385a

https://maritime-executive.com/article/u-s-and-china-back-competing-rail-corridors-to-zambia-s-copper-belt

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china%E2%80%99s-pursuit-copper-changing-latin-america-210171

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/panamas-supreme-court-rules-against-first-quantum-mine-bab0cfa2

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@lestermunson

@NotTVJessJones

@jamil_n_jaffer

@BishopGarrison

Like what we're doing here?

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.

And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/yNgReztNdYg

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 335: China and Hungary: Europe’s New Storm Front? May 13, 2024

Show notes

Today, Jamil, Jess, and Morgan discuss Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Hungary, where Xi received a warm welcome from Hungarian Prime Minister Vicktor Orban. After their meeting, Xi and Orban announced that China and Hungary had elevated ties to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” and Orban endorsed China's peace plan for Ukraine, going against the rest of the NATO alliance.

How will the deepening relationship between Hungary and China impact the NATO alliance? What does an “all-weather” partnership mean? How does Hungary endorsing China's peace plan impact wider NATO support for Ukraine?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/chinas-xi-jinping-hungary-discuss-ukraine-infrastructure-2024-05-09/

https://www.rferl.org/a/xi-hungary-orban-european-tour-pillar-new-world-order/32939244.html

https://www.foxnews.com/world/nato-ally-endorses-chinas-ukraine-peace-plan-beijing-applauds-model-european-diplomacy

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/09/world/europe/xi-jinping-china-hungary-orban.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-xi-jinping-hungary-china-partnership-electric-vehicles-investments-cooperation/

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@morganlroach

@NotTVJessJones

@jamil_n_jaffer

Like what we're doing here?

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.

And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/_8yFbqkUfYs

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 334: Continental Drift? The EU Goes the Polls May 10, 2024

Show notes

Today, Jess, Morgan, and Martha discuss the upcoming EU Parliament elections where up to 450 million people from 27 member states will elect roughly 700 parliamentary members in the world’s only directly elected transnational assembly. These elections have the power to shape the EU amid the conflict in Ukraine, rise of support for right-wing politics, and many questioning the very purpose of the European Union.

What does this upcoming election show about the health of the EU’s unity? How much concern should there be over support for far-right parties? How are China and Russia interfering in European affairs?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!

https://apnews.com/article/eu-elections-extreme-right-climate-defense-97c6818f5b6bc12395d714021413dc32

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/09/what-are-the-eu-elections-and-why-do-they-matter

https://apnews.com/article/germany-election-violence-eu-4d09d90a6cc380aacf62ca4a69af1a64

https://www.gmfus.org/news/whats-stake-eu-elections-ukraine-aid

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@morganlroach

@NotTVJessJones

@marthamillerdc

Like what we're doing here?

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.

And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/T7xbnUoDwzA

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 333: Xi’s European Tour – An Olympic Truce? May 08, 2024

Show notes

Today, Jess, Morgan, and Les discussed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to Europe where he is visiting three countries: France, Serbia, and Hungary. On Monday, Xi met with French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss China’s unfair trade practices and China’s ongoing support for Russia, before receiving a warmer welcome in the two Eastern European countries.

Does Europe have the leverage needed to change China’s policies? Does Xi’s tour impact U.S.-EU relations? Can Europe provide a unified front when it comes to the continent’s foreign policy interests?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our expert's discussion!

https://www.wsj.com/world/chinas-xi-shouldnt-expect-an-easy-ride-in-europe-this-time-6a37e9db

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/06/world/europe/xi-macron-europe-trade-war.html

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/07/china-wants-to-divide-and-conquer-europe/

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/07/world/europe/xi-serbia-hungary-europe.html

https://www.economist.com/china/2024/05/06/visiting-europe-xi-jinping-brings-up-an-old-grievance

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@morganlroach

@NotTVJessJones

@lestermunson

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