Fault Lines

Latest Episodes:

Episode 472: Syria Reopened: U.S. Policy Shift on Syrian Sanctions Jul 02, 2025

Show notes

Today, Martha, Jess, Les, and Amy discuss a notable shift in U.S. foreign policy as the White House lifts most economic sanctions on Syria. For over a decade, those sanctions defined Syria’s economy and global isolation, aimed squarely at weakening the Assad regime during the country’s brutal civil war. But with Assad’s fall late last year and a new interim government under Ahmed al-Shara now in power, the U.S. is signaling support for stabilization and reconstruction, while maintaining targeted restrictions on individuals linked to past atrocities and terrorism.

Is this a genuine turning point for Syria—or a risky bet on fragile leadership? What message does this send to allies and adversaries about the durability of U.S. sanctions? And as reconstruction begins, who gains from Syria’s reintegration—and who’s left behind?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussions:

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/30/trump-scraps-syria-sanctions-regime-00433633

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-interested-in-expanding-normalization-treaties-to-syria-lebanon-d583d184

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/30/world/middleeast/gulf-states-invest-syria-iran.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/14/syria-sanctions-caeser-act-sharaa/

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@marthamillerdc

@lestermunson

@NotTVJessJones

@amykmitchell

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We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/EX_q4NoqQeQ

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 471: Missing in May: Xi Jinping’s Vanishing Act and Chinese Power Struggles Jun 30, 2025

Show notes

Today, Les, Martha, and Jeffrey unpack the swirl of rumors that emerged from Beijing after Chinese President Xi Jinping disappeared from public view for several weeks in May. With whispers of internal dissent, missed Politburo meetings, and PLA shakeups, questions are mounting about the stability of Xi’s leadership—and whether the Chinese Communist Party is entering a new phase of uncertainty.

As China grapples with deepening economic troubles, demographic decline, and foreign policy stumbles, speculation over leadership succession and elite discontent is running high. Is this a genuine power shift in the making—or a loyalty test typical of CCP politics? Either way, the turbulence may mark a weaker and more unpredictable chapter for Beijing.

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussions:

https://nypost.com/2025/06/28/opinion/is-chinese-pres-xi-jinping-on-his-way-out/?utm_campaign=iphone_nyp&utm_source=pasteboard_app

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/where-was-xi-jinping-in-irans-hour-of-need-china-strikes-israel-us-5b04fdb3

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@lestermunson

@marthamillerdc

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We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/oGng_UKfGB8

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 470: Losing Our Voice? Shutting Down VOA and the Future of U.S. Messaging Jun 27, 2025

Show notes

Today, Jess, Les, and Amy unpack the implications of the U.S. shutting down Voice of America and scaling back support for Radio Free Europe—two longtime tools of American public diplomacy. As funding dries up and staff are furloughed, adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran are moving to fill the vacuum in the global information space.

Is the U.S. be ceding ground in the global competition for soft power? How should the U.S. modernize its messaging tools to meet today's information challenges? What are the risks if rivals like China and Russia shape the narrative where the U.S. voice goes silent?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussions:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/business/media/us-china-russia-global-communications.html?searchResultPosition=12

https://www.npr.org/2025/05/21/g-s1-68363/trump-tried-to-shutter-radio-free-europe-the-eu-threw-it-a-lifeline

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@NotTVJessJones

@lestermunson

@amykmitchell

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And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/ZSn_Je9V8Uk

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 469: NATO’s Pivot: Defense, Deterrence, and Division Jun 25, 2025

Show notes

Today, Martha, Les, and Morgan discuss NATO’s unprecedented decision to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP—a seismic shift in transatlantic security policy. Driven by escalating threats from Russia, war in Ukraine, and mounting pressure from President Trump, the alliance’s new posture marks a clear break from decades of post–Cold War complacency. With Trump demanding more from European allies while withholding a full guarantee of U.S. protection, the future of collective defense—and Europe's role–is being fundamentally rewritten.

Is this a turning point for NATO or the beginning of its fragmentation? What does this spending surge really buy in terms of deterrence, and is it enough to match rising global threats? And can Europe truly step up—or is burden-sharing still more theory than reality?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussions:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_236418.htm

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gd98qry6jo

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/nato-summit-trump-solitary-approach

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-heads-nato-summit-europe-agrees-heed-his-defense-spending-demands

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@marthamillerdc

@lestermunson

@morganlroach

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And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/DGDfMrDkUtY

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 468: Operation Midnight Hammer Jun 23, 2025

Show notes

Today, Morgan, Les, and Jeffrey break down Operation Midnight Hammer—the largest B-2 strike in U.S. history. Over the weekend, U.S. forces launched a major bombing campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, deploying 125 aircraft, 14 bunker-busting MOPs, and over two dozen Tomahawk missiles in a high-stakes mission aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear capabilities. While President Trump has declared victory, the fallout—military, diplomatic, and political—is only beginning.

What options does Iran have now? Will it retaliate through traditional military means, ramp up proxy warfare, or strike at global infrastructure? With tensions high and the potential for escalation real, what does continued engagement look like—and are we prepared for what comes next?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@morganlroach

@lestermunson

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And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/lvrwmY4fET0

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 467: No Predictions, Just Pressure: U.S., Israel, and Iran Jun 20, 2025

Show notes

Today, Les, Martha, and Jeffery discuss the latest twist in the escalating standoff between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. As speculation swirls over whether the U.S. will join Israeli strikes on Iran’s underground nuclear facility at Fordow, the White House has announced President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to intervene. That decision could involve the use of powerful U.S. bunker-busting munitions—potentially the 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator—against a fortified target only the U.S. is capable of hitting. While others jump to forecast outcomes, the Fault Lines crew focuses instead on what this moment actually means.

What does the administration’s messaging signal about its strategic calculus—and red lines? How much pressure is being applied through public signaling, and how much of it is aimed at Tehran, Tel Aviv, or the American public? And with escalation already underway, how can we look to conflicts of the past to inform how we move forward?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@lestermunson

@marthamillerdc

Like what we're doing here?

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here (and have a chance to see Bean the dog!): https://youtu.be/E4KyNG8l-cg

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 466: Escalation in the Gulf: Iran, Israel, and the U.S. Jun 18, 2025

Show notes

Today, Martha, Les, and Morgan discuss the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, now entering its sixth day with historic implications. The immediate trigger was a rare IAEA censure of Iran for non-compliance with nuclear safeguards—the first since 2005—but Iran and its proxy groups like Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis have been attacking Israel for years leading up to this point. President Trump has ordered a large-scale U.S. military buildup in the region and demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender, even as Tehran warns of severe retaliation.

Is this the beginning of a full-scale regional war—and will U.S. forces inevitably be drawn in? How will Tehran respond to the unprecedented damage to its nuclear program and military infrastructure? Will this mark a turning point in re-establishing American deterrence?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@marthamillerdc

@lestermunson

@morganlroach

Like what we're doing here?

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/2k7BlOYABh4

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 465: The ODNI Under Review Jun 16, 2025

Show notes

Today, Jess, Martha, Les and Jeffrey unpack comments and messaging shared by Tulsi Gabard, Director of National Intelligence. In a recent video, Gabbard warned that “warmongers and political elites” are pushing the U.S. toward nuclear war, while her congressional testimony downplayed Iran’s nuclear threat. At the same time, Gabbard has introduced a more centralized review process for intelligence reports, drawing some concern within the intelligence community.

Does Gabbard’s nuclear rhetoric echo broader narratives—like Russian disinformation—designed to stoke fear of nuclear war? Is Gabbard’s direct message to the public common for the ODNI? How might the new intelligence reporting oversight affect the objectivity and credibility of the assessments?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion:

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/11/tulsi-gabbard-intelligence-leaks-deep-state

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/gabbard-considering-ways-revamp-trumps-intelligence-briefing-rcna209805

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5215194-iran-nuclear-weapons/

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/tulsi-gabbard-video-nuclear-war-bomb-shelters-rcna212317

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@NotTVJessJones

@marthamillerdc

@lestermunson

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Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/0MHSi_A5J-s

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 464: Red Lines Crossed: Israel’s Strike, U.S. Response, and Regional Risks Jun 13, 2025

Show notes

Today, Morgan, Martha, Les, and Jess discuss Israel’s launch of Operation Rising Lion—a sweeping strike against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, long-range missile sites, air defenses, and senior IRGC leadership. As the U.S. pulled personnel from the region, raising questions about prior coordination, President Trump claimed he had warned Iran of the consequences of refusing a deal. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the U.S. was not involved, calling the Israeli strikes a unilateral action.

With the situation still unfolding, is the region now on the brink of a broader war? What does this strike mean for U.S. influence in the Middle East—and for the safety of American personnel on the ground? And has diplomacy with Iran reached a final breaking point, or is there still time to pull back from escalation?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-embassy-iraq-preparing-ordered-evacuation-due-heightened-security-risks-2025-06-11/

https://time.com/7293392/us-embassy-iraq-iran/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/06/11/us-israel-iran-attack-fears/

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c629yk5z07vo

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@morganlroach

@marthamillerdc

@lestermunson

@NotTVJessJones

Like what we're doing here?

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/ablr_IEmgz8

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 463: Gas, Gold, and Guns: Terrorism in West Africa Jun 11, 2025

Show notes

Today, Les, Matt, Jeffrey, and Joshua examine the growing instability in West Africa as jihadist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) expands its control across Burkina Faso and the Sahel. With the U.S. and France reducing their regional footprint, local governments are struggling to respond to the spread of terrorism, and Russia—through the Africa Corps—has stepped into the vacuum left behind.

How are terrorist groups like JNIM funding their operations, and what role does illicit finance play in undermining global sanctions? Can the U.S. afford to keep pulling back, especially with key diplomatic and aid positions still unfilled? And with natural resources fueling violence and extremism, are we ignoring an urgent front in global security that could soon come knocking on our own door?

Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.

Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/08/jnim-militants-west-africa-sahel-terrorism/

https://apnews.com/article/russia-africa-weaponry-ships-mali-ukraine-f3383b5bbc8120b445d3df9062bf7f14

Follow our experts on Twitter:

@lestermunson

@WMattHayden

@joshuachuminski

Like what we're doing here?

Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.

And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!

We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/HPxgyL2v2aE