Fantasy Football, in Theory

Latest Episodes:

Episode 08 - This Is Not Amari Cooper, (and nor is it Luke Vosters) Sep 19, 2020

Show notes

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, your only podcast devoted to fantasy football strategy in the abstract. It is said that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. We are told that history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. But the past and the future are temporally distinct, and one is not the other. So how are lessons to be drawn? This is the paradox at the heart of any efforts to let our knowledge of the past shape our expectations for the future.

The introduction to today's episode is adapted from an essay I wrote in 2017 titled This Is Not Amari Cooper. If you'd like to read the essay in its original form, complete with pictures that are not the things they represent (but which are similar in structure, which accounts for their usefulness), you can find it here: https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadFiT8

If you want to view Luke's projection system and perhaps incorporate it into your own personal process, it's freely available here: http://lukevosters.com/

If you enjoy my work, you can find it exclusively at www.footballguys.com. An archive of links to past articles of mine is also available at my blog, http://dynastytheory.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-link-to-all-my-writings.html.

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at FantasyInTheory@Gmail.com, or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks, as always, for listening!

Episode 07 - O, What Tangled Webs We Weave Sep 08, 2020

Show notes

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, your only podcast devoted to fantasy football strategy in the abstract.

What if everything we thought we knew about football was wrong? What if the all-time greats and the all-time goods and all-time okays were really just an indecipherable mess distinguished primarily by chance, a series of coins that could have just as easily landed on the other side (if they were even destined to be flipped at all)? What if the universe— to quote Fantasy Football, in Theory favorite J.B.S. Haldane— is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose. Today I talk about how everything we see is a product of everything we don't see. If you want to read more about the history of the West Coast Offense and its roots in Cincinnati, I highly recommend this piece by Chris Wesseling of NFL.com: https://www.nfl.com/news/sidelines/the-ohio-river-offense

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at FantasyInTheory@Gmail.com, or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks, as always, for listening!

Episode 06 - The People's Podcast, featuring Bob Mozitis Sep 01, 2020

Show notes

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, your only podcast devoted to fantasy football strategy in the abstract.

Who we choose to speak to shapes not only what we come to believe, but even the manner in which we think about things. Most fantasy football podcasts feature people within the fantasy football industry speaking with other industry insiders, which is a useful way to sharpen our thoughts and feelings about fantasy football.

But what does this approach miss? Twitter-friend Bob Mozitis (@briks42) was kind enough to play guinea pig as I tried to find out.

Content referenced during this episode includes:

My historical fantasy value spreadsheets for QBs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NX1RHFYpgmAIojpczvNW2aK7dgLC30ISeKAKSERhHdM/edit?usp=sharing

RBs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-c4JkLxBhGak6GxorS__wm34AOYhRNPH8ZX_u7vHT6M/edit?usp=sharing

WRs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tReS4w10vlB2RAQsAq7PaGLK2iwrhQ1EzMujfyQiBCM/edit?usp=sharing

TEs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O3q98uDGyhehlTkGtSsthLGtF6AOei1Alcq872jJWWk/edit?usp=sharing

(If you scroll right on the main page, you'll find quick filters to sort by production though a specific age or year of experience, at a specific age or year of experience, or after a specific age or year of experience.)

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at FantasyInTheory@Gmail.com, or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks for listening!

Episode 05 - Some Names Stymie Analysis, featuring Matt Harmon Aug 13, 2017

Show notes

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, your only podcast devoted to fantasy football strategy in the abstract.

How do the labels we use affect how we see things, taste things, hear things, feel things, and interact with the world around us? And perhaps more importantly, what the heck does this have to do with football? Special guest Matt Harmon joins us to discuss.

Content referenced during this episode includes:

Fighting through negativity bias and a wide receiver's drop issues: http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/fighting-through-negativity-bias-and-a-wide-receivers-drops.html

What You See is Not All There Is: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadDiT29

The Crayola-fication of the World, parts 1 and 2: http://www.empiricalzeal.com/2012/06/05/the-crayola-fication-of-the-world-how-we-gave-colors-names-and-it-messed-with-our-brains-part-i/

http://www.empiricalzeal.com/2012/06/11/the-crayola-fication-of-the-world-how-we-gave-colors-names-and-it-messed-with-our-brains-part-ii/

What Quarterback Rate Stats Stay Most Consistant When a Quarterback Change Teams?: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index76ed.html?p=4152

What Quarterback Rate Stats Stay Most Consistent When a Team Changes Quarterbacks?: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index3801.html?p=4395

Thoughts on Running Back Yards per Carry: http://www.footballperspective.com/thoughts-on-running-back-yards-per-carry/

When Do Yards and Touchdowns Per Carry Stabilize?: http://intentionalrounding.com/when-do-yards-and-touchdowns-per-carry-stabilize/

Career Leaders in Yards Per Carry, (Era-Adjusted): http://www.footballperspective.com/career-leaders-in-yards-per-carry-era-adjusted/

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at FantasyInTheory@Gmail.com, or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks for listening!

Interruptisode 01 - ...For No Good Reason Jul 24, 2017

Show notes

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, a fantasy football podcast dedicated to high-level fantasy strategy in the abstract.

In today's episode: Cowards die many times before their deaths; the valiant podcast about it from the comfort of their living rooms.

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at FantasyInTheory@Gmail.com, or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks for listening!

Episode 04 - Being Right Jul 17, 2017

Show notes

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, a brand new fantasy football podcast dedicated to high-level fantasy strategy in the abstract.

What do you do when one of your cornerstone beliefs is suddenly called into question? In the quest to be right, what does it mean to be wrong?

In our quest to answer that question, we'll discuss stupid bar bets, obtuse statistical biases, overconfident basketball researchers, the history of the philosophy of science, (not to be confused with the history of science or the philosophy of science), and go over a long list of stupid things that I have believed.

Here is a link to Believing We're Right isn't Being Right, the essay that inspired the episode: https://dynastytheory.blogspot.com/2015/07/believing-were-right-is-not-being-right.html

And, as promised, here's a list of things I've written about being wrong:

Musings on Confirmation Bias - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadDiT1

A Thought Experiment to Ruin Your Day - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadDiT35

Harvin Runs a Jet Sweep - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadDiP7

The Wrong Way to Build a Dynasty - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadWrongWay15

We're Probably Thinking about Age the Wrong Way - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadMortalityTables

Also, a piece on the tendency of analytics to sometimes overconfidently assert that because they failed to find evidence of something, it must not exist - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadDiT25

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at FantasyInTheory@Gmail.com, or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks for listening!

Special Episode: The Three Cone Drill Part 2 Aug 31, 2016

Show notes

Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) and Danny Tuccitto (@IR_DannyT) ran a podcast called the Three Cone Drill. Last August, they invited Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) and me on to discuss a sprawling array of topics, and the resulting conversation was my favorite that I've ever had about Football, or a number of other topics for that matter.

The Three Cone Drill podcast is now defunct, but Rivers and Danny have given me permission to re-host this episode so it is not lost forever. This is part 2, in which we question the validity of statistics and everything we thought we knew about player aging.

Special Episode: The Three Cone Drill Part 1 Aug 31, 2016

Show notes

The Three Cone Drill podcast is now defunct, but Rivers and Danny have given me permission to re-host this episode so it is not lost forever. This is part 1, including a discussion on the philosophies and strategies of trading in fantasy football.

Episode 03 - San Diego's Choice Aug 16, 2016

Show notes

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, a brand new fantasy football podcast dedicated to high-level fantasy strategy in the abstract.

The 2007 San Diego Chargers were faced with a choice: part with one of the most successful coaches in NFL history, or with the hot GM who had figured out how to beat the NFL draft.

Today, we re-examine that choice with the benefit of hindsight. In our autopsy, we'll discuss John Bogle, Wyatt Earp, and definitely-not-Albert-Einstein. Our findings carry rather striking implications for our own desires to evaluate talent in fantasy football, and raise a question that strikes to the heart of the scouting profession...

... Can anyone beat the NFL draft?

If you want to read more on this topic, here are links to the articles referenced in this show.

The First Index Mutual Fund: A History of Vanguard Index Trust and the Vanguard Index Strategy, by John Bogle - http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/lib/sp19970401.html

Are Certain Teams Better at Drafting than Others? by Chase Stuart - http://www.footballperspective.com/are-certain-teams-better-at-drafting-than-others/

Cade Massey on Flipping Coins and the NFL Draft, by Brian Burke - http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2013/04/cade-massey-on-flipping-coins-and-nfl.html

Luck vs. Skill: Year-Over-Year NFL Draft Performance, by Steve Drake - http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/04/luck-vs-skill-nfl-draft-performance.html

Luck vs. Skill: Is Anyone Good at Picking Football Players? by Steve Drake - http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/05/luck-vs-skill-in-nfl-draft.html

Luck vs. Skill: Are Picks After Trading Up Better than Others? by Steve Drake - http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/05/luck-vs-skill-are-picks-after-trading.html

No Team Can Beat the Draft, by Neil Paine - http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

I've written in the past on the odd intersection between index funds and fantasy football, in a three part series on index investing in dynasty rookie drafts.

Part 1: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harstadindex101

Part 2: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harstadindex201

Part 3: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harstadindex301

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at FantasyInTheory@Gmail.com, or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks for listening!

Episode 02 - Multidisciplinary Genius, and Also Matt Waldman Aug 03, 2016

Show notes

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, a brand new fantasy football podcast dedicated to high-level fantasy strategy in the abstract.

Episode 2 continues our look at questions of size and how much it matters for NFL players. If you're curious about any of the essays cited, you can read them here:

I, Pencil, by Leonard Read - http://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/rdPncl1.html

On Being the Right Size, by J.B.S. Haldane - http://irl.cs.ucla.edu/papers/right-size.html

The Biology of B-Movie Monsters, by Michael C. LeBarbera - http://fathom.lib.uchicago.edu/2/21701757/

If you enjoyed today's guest, you can learn more about the Rookie Scouting Portfolio at his site - https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/

You can also read more of his work-- as well as my own!-- at www.footballguys.com. An archive of links to past articles of mine is also always available at my blog, http://dynastytheory.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-link-to-all-my-writings.html.

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