Election Ride Home

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Thu. 11/07 – Kentucky Will Recanvass the Vote Nov 07, 2019

Show notes

Kentucky’s governor requests a recanvass, the Trump impeachment stuff in three minutes or less, the DNC pulls out of UCLA for the December debate, a new poll gives two candidates spots in upcoming DNC debates, Bernie Sanders is about to begin massive TV advertising, Andrew Yang has begun TV advertising focused on Iowa, Elizabeth Warren gets a key endorsement, Donald Trump begins selling Christmas merchandise, and Julián Castro goes on The Daily Show.

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Bevin campaign formally asks for a recanvass in Kentucky (CNN)
Here's how the recanvass in the Kentucky governor election will work (CNN)
Live blog of impeachment inquiry news, Thursday (The Guardian)
Live blog of impeachment inquiry news, Wednesday (The Guardian)
Trump wanted Barr to hold news conference saying the president broke no laws in call with Ukrainian leader (WaPo)
Democrats will no longer host their 6th presidential debate at UCLA (The Guardian)
Gabbard and Klobuchar hit debate polling thresholds (Politico)
2020 Democratic polls (Google Sheets/Politico)
Sanders to Spend More Than $30 Million on Advertising in Early States (NYT)
Montellaro tweet re Yang ads (Twitter/Zach Montellaro)
Yang’s first TV ad (YouTube/Andrew Yang for President 2020)
Castro’s first TV ad (Twitter/Julián Castro)
Ayanna Pressley Endorses Elizabeth Warren for President (NYT)
Pressley endorsement video on Twitter (Twitter/Ayanna Pressley)
Trump Campaign Unveils Christmas Merchandise (The Guardian)
Trump campaign shop (Trump Make American Great Again Committee)
Castro tweet with clip from Daily Show (Twitter/Julián Castro)

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Wed. 11/06 – Democrats Win in Kentucky and Virginia; Lose in Mississippi Nov 06, 2019

Show notes

What happened in last night’s elections, ranked-choice voting passes in New York City, Tulsi Gabbard, yet again, confirms she will not run as a third-party candidate, the Trump impeachment stuff in three minutes or less, and a new poll suggests essentially a national three-way tie in the Democratic primary.

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3 takeaways from Tuesday's elections in Kentucky, Virginia and Mississippi (CNN)
Beshear Beats Trump-Loving Bevin in Kentucky (NY Mag/Intelligencer)
Dem leads Kentucky governor’s race that is too close to call (AP)
Cyclist who flipped off Trump motorcade wins local office in Virginia (FOX61)
Ranked-choice voting adopted in New York City, along with other ballot measures (Politico)
Nader’s Traders (Slate)
The Alternative Vote [Ranked Choice] Vote Explained (YouTube/CGP Grey)
Ranked Choice Voting explained by NBC (Twitter/NBC News Now)
Gabbard item on not running as a third-party candidate (The Guardian)
Live blog of impeachment inquiry news, Wednesday (The Guardian)
Live blog of impeachment inquiry news, Tuesday (The Guardian)
Trump's EU envoy admits Ukraine quid pro quo in updated testimony (The Guardian)
Trump Diplomat Gordon Sondland: Oh, THAT Pro Quo, Yeah, Now I Remember (NY Mag/Intelligencer)
AP sources: State Dept. worried about defending ambassador (AP)
National poll: Biden, Warren and Sanders locked together at top of primary (Politico)

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Tue. 11/05 – Steyer’s Campaign Aide Allegedly Stole Harris’s Data Nov 05, 2019

Show notes

Julián Castro focuses on Iowa and Nevada while closing other state offices, a Nevada poll helps one candidate get closer to the December DNC debate, a Tom Steyer campaign aide allegedly stole data from the Kamala Harris campaign, that Nevada poll is good news for Joe Biden, the Trump impeachment stuff in three minutes or less, the majority of political spending for 2020 is now digital, and will the 15% threshold mean lots of candidates survive early voting states?

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Chris Higgins on Twitter
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Julián Castro to lay off New Hampshire, South Carolina teams (Politico)
Messerly tweet on NV Indy poll (Twitter/Megan Messerly)
Poll: Biden holds significant lead over Warren, Sanders in Nevada; top issue is electing someone who can beat Trump (The Nevada Independent)
Tom Steyer aide resigns after stealing Kamala Harris’ SC 2020 volunteer data (Post and Courier)
Steyer apology to Harris (Twitter/Tom Steyer)
Live blog of impeachment inquiry news, Tuesday (The Guardian)
Live blog of impeachment inquiry news, Monday (The Guardian)
The latest on the Trump impeachment inquiry (CNN)
Impeachment deposition: Pompeo and other State leaders ignored pleas to help ambassador amid Giuliani campaign (CNN)
2020 candidates are mostly focusing their advertising spending online (Axios)
How The 15 Percent Threshold For Primary Delegates Could Winnow The Field (FiveThirtyEight)

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Mon. 11/04 – O’Rourke Drops Out Nov 04, 2019

Show notes

Beto O’Rourke drops out, a New York Times poll looks at battleground states, the Trump impeachment stuff in three minutes or less, the Julián Castro campaign prepares for layoffs, more details on the November DNC debate, and new polls help two candidates qualify for the December DNC debate.

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Mack Weldon - use code ELECTION

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Beto O’Rourke Drops Out of the Presidential Race (NYT)
Thank you. (Medium/Beto O’Rourke)
August 5, 2019 – “You Can’t Be Neutral on a Moving Train” (Election Ride Home)
One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds (NYT)
Cohn on the Upshot poll methodology (Twitter/Nate Cohn)
Silver on the Upshot poll (Twitter/Nate Silver)
Enten on the Upshot poll (Twitter/Harry Enten)
Montanaro on the Upshot poll and others (Twitter/Domenico Montanaro)
Live blog of impeachment inquiry news, Monday (The Guardian)
Live blog of impeachment inquiry news, Friday (The Guardian)
Lawyer: Whistleblower willing to take written GOP questions (AP)
Democrats prep next impeachment phase amid likely White House defiance of new subpoenas (CNN)
Castro fights to stay in race as staff looks for other jobs (CNN)
MSNBC announces Tyler Perry Studios as site for November debate (NBC News)
Kamala Harris qualifies for December primary debate (Politico)

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Fri. 11/01 – Warren’s Plan to Pay for Medicare for All Nov 01, 2019

Show notes

Elizabeth Warren releases her plan to fund Medicare for All, a new poll of Iowa sets everyone’s hair on fire, the Trump impeachment stuff in three minutes or less, checking in on Julián Castro’s self-imposed fundraising deadline, and how to have fun looking at electoral betting markets.

Links:

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Ending the Stranglehold of Health Care Costs on American Families (Medium/Team Warren)
Elizabeth Warren’s plan to pay for Medicare for All, explained (Vox)
Warren's plan to pay for 'Medicare for All': $20.5 trillion in new spending, taxes on the rich and corporations (NBC News)
Elizabeth Warren Releases $20.5 Trillion Plan to Pay for ‘Medicare for All’ (NYT)
Did Warren Pass the Medicare Test? I Think So (NYT/Op-Ed)
Warren Leads Tight Iowa Race as Biden Fades, Poll Finds (NYT)
Live blog of impeachment inquiry news, Friday (The Guardian)
Live blog of impeachment inquiry news, Thursday (The Guardian)
Prokupecz tweet on Bolton and Kupperman (Twitter/Shimon Prokupecz)
Impeachment deposition: NSC official corroborates testimony linking Ukraine aid to investigations (CNN)
Trump's Russia Director To Leave National Security Council Amid Impeachment Inquiry (NPR)
Julián Castro reaches $800K fundraising goal, stays in presidential race (ABC News)
Election Betting Odds (Maxim Lott/John Stossel)

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Thu. 10/31 – Twitter Bans Political Advertising Oct 31, 2019

Show notes

Twitter will drop all political advertising, the Trump impeachment stuff in three minutes or less, Kamala Harris’s campaign lays off staff to focus on Iowa, a new poll helps one candidate get closer to the November DNC debate, and will impeachment cause problems for the Senators currently running for president?

Links:

Chris Higgins on Twitter
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Election Ride Home on Twitter
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Dorsey thread on Twitter political ad ban (Twitter/Jack Dorsey)
Yang tweet re Twitter ad policy change (Andrew Yang)
Bullock tweet re Twitter ad policy change (Steve Bullock)
Facebook: We shouldn't become the gatekeeper of truth on candidate ads (USA Today)
Twitter bans political ads ahead of 2020 election (AP)
Live blog of impeachment inquiry news, Thursday (The Guardian)
Live blog of impeachment inquiry news, Wednesday (The Guardian)
White House lawyer moved transcript of Trump call to classified server after Ukraine adviser raised alarms (WaPo)
Kamala Harris to slash staff, restructure campaign as she hemorrhages cash (Politico)
September 19: The Saga of Gabbard’s Third Poll [includes Harris Iowa stuff] (ERH)
Montellaro tweet re poll debate ramifications (Twitter/Zach Montellaro)
USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll: Biden's lead over Warren narrows in a turbulent Democratic field (USA Today)
Could a Long Impeachment Trial Derail the Senators Running for President? (NY Mag/Intelligencer)

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Wed. 10/30 – New Hampshire Opens Primary Filing Oct 30, 2019

Show notes

New Hampshire opens its primary filing period and that is a lot fun, the Donald Trump impeachment stuff in three minutes or less, a new poll helps candidates in both the November and December DNC debates, what that poll told us about the Republican primary, Moody’s Analytics attempts to predict the 2020 presidential election, and the pro-Joe Biden Super PAC now officially exists.

Links:

Chris Higgins on Twitter
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Election Ride Home on Twitter
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Once again, history to be made as first-in-nation primary filing period opens Wednesday (WMUR)
Tweet showing photos of NH filing opening (Twitter/Nicole Sganga)
Guardian liveblog of impeachment news, Wednesday (The Guardian)
Guardian liveblog of impeachment news, Tuesday (The Guardian)
Guidelines for House impeachment inquiry (House Website)
Official Reveals Trump’s ‘Exact Call’ With Zelensky Was Edited Down (NY Mag/Intelligencer)
CNN 2020 NH Primary Poll Full Results PDF (CNN/UNH)
Republican delegates from New Hampshire, 2016 (Ballotpedia)
2020 Democratic Polls (Google Sheets/Politico)
Montellaro tweet explaining debate ramifications of CNN/UNH poll (Twitter/Zach Montellaro)
2020 Presidential Election Model PDF (Moody’s Analytics)
Ex-Biden aide forms Unite the Country super PAC (Politico)

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Tue. 10/29 – North Carolina’s Gerrymandered Map Is Toast Oct 29, 2019

Show notes

North Carolina’s gerrymandered election map is officially thrown out, what’s a PAC versus a Super PAC, the Trump impeachment stuff in three minutes or less, another Republican Congressman announces his retirement, Steve Bullock releases his LGBTQ rights plan, and Jeff Sessions may run again for Senate in Alabama.

Links:

Chris Higgins on Twitter
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State Court Tosses GOP’s Gerrymandered Congressional Map in North Carolina (NY Mag/Intelligencer)
State Court Bars Using North Carolina House Map in 2020 Elections (NYT)
PACs and Super PACs (Ballotpedia)
Political action committee (Ballotpedia)
Super PAC (Ballotpedia)
It’s bold, but legal: How campaigns and their super PAC backers work together (WaPo)
The Guardian’s coverage of impeachment on Tuesday (The Guardian)
The Guardian’s coverage of impeachment on Monday (The Guardian)
House to take first vote on impeachment inquiry of Trump, forcing lawmakers on record (The Washington Post)
Dear Colleague on Next Steps in House's Ongoing Impeachment Inquiry (Nancy Pelosi Congressional Newsroom)
Army Officer Who Heard Trump’s Ukraine Call Reported Concerns (NYT)
Greg Walden to retire in latest sign of GOP doubts about retaking House (Politico)
Equal Rights and Opportunity for LGBTQ Americans (Bullock 2020)
Sessions strongly considering bid for old Senate seat in Alabama (Politico)

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Mon. 10/28 – Biden Is Open to a Super PAC Oct 28, 2019

Show notes

Joe Biden is now open to taking money from a Super PAC, the Trump impeachment stuff in three minutes or less, Sanders get a third endorsement from The Squad, more details emerge on the November DNC debate, and more details emerge on the December DNC debate, Katie Hill’s resignation sets up an unexpected special election in California, a summary of the unofficial Republican primary debate over the weekend, and do Democratic primary voters want a new candidate?

Links:

Chris Higgins on Twitter
Chris Higgins on Instagram
Election Ride Home on Twitter
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Biden appears to drop his opposition to a super PAC (WaPo)
The Guardian’s coverage of Trump stuff, last week (The Guardian)
The Guardian’s coverage of Trump stuff, today (The Guardian)
John Bolton's ex-deputy Kupperman summoned in Trump impeachment probe, may provide Ukraine policy insight (USA Today)
We represent the whistleblower. Their identity is no longer relevant. (WaPo)
Sanders gets endorsement from third ‘Squad’ member, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (WaPo)
Democratic presidential debate on Nov. 20 headed for Tyler Perry’s studio complex (AJC)
Montellaro tweet re Star Wars and December debate (Twitter/Zach Montellaro)
DNC raises thresholds for December debate (Politico)
Montellaro tweet re donor number updates (Twitter/Zach Montellaro)
Katie Hill to resign (Politico)
Hill Resignation Moves CA-25 to Lean Democrat (Cook Political Report)
'Never Trump' GOP presidential candidate Joe Walsh says Republicans should consider a Democratic running mate(Tennessean)
Do You Buy That … Democratic Voters Want A New 2020 Candidate? (FiveThirtyEight)
Edwards-Levy tweet re YouGov poll (Twitter/Ariel Edwards-Levy)

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Fri. 10/25 – Ryan Drops Out, Gabbard Is All In Oct 25, 2019

Show notes

Tim Ryan drops his bid for the presidency, Tulsi Gabbard is all-in on the presidency and not running again for Congress, the DNC announces its December debate requirements, we can now officially speculate about a January debate, we are approaching just 100 days until Iowa votes, polls say Democratic primary voters are very happy with their options, and one Republican primary challenger says he would happily vote for Biden.

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