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    Government

    Decision Advantage – Jonathan Pan

    Decision Advantage is a content series centered on how to achieve decision advantage and dominance for the United States military.

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    Copyright: © Jonathan Pan

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    Latest Episodes:
    John Herrman: Agentic AI and the Future of Decision Dominance | Decision Advantage #5 Sep 06, 2025
    Show notes

    0:16 John's background

    1:00 Framework for decision dominance

    3:26 Understand: Carl von Clausewitz, not taking shortcuts on mission analysis

    5:17 Visualize: George C. Marshall's canal-side vision for the Meuse-Argonne Offensive

    7:40 Direct: Noncombatant Evacuation Operations planning in Sudan

    8:16 Assess: Spotting HIMARS flaw through data


    Referenced in this episode:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/29/world/europe/us-ukraine-military-war-wiesbaden.html

    https://blog.exialabs.com/p/exia-welcomes-john-herrman-jay-miseli

    https://www.thehistoryreader.com/military-history/marshall-mitchell-meuse-argonne/


    Craig Broyles: Effective Military Decision-Making Frameworks | Decision Advantage #4 Sep 06, 2025
    Show notes

    Colonel Craig Broyles is the Commander of the 81st Stryker Brigade Combat Team.


    01:40 Worshiping the MDMP process

    04:32 Origins of the word "Decide"

    05:30 John Boyd's OODA Loop

    06:50 Focusing on what's worked in the past

    07:40 Understanding that the context will evolve

    08:10 METT-TC / S

    13:28 Deep dive on terrain analysis

    17:08 Adjusting the plan when the environment changes

    19:05 Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment

    21:20 Planning the mission from the opponent's point of view

    26:20 Commander's intent


    Referenced in this episode:

    https://www.etymonline.com/word/decide

    https://www.usmcu.edu/Outreach/Marine-Corps-University-Press/MCU-Journal/JAMS-vol-14-no-1/Colonel-John-Boyds-Thoughts-on-Disruption/

    https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/May-June-2023/Furthering-the-Discussion/


    Kent Park: AI for Tactical Decision Making | Decision Advantage #3 Sep 06, 2025
    Show notes

    Colonel Kent Park has served in the U.S. Army as an Infantry officer for over 25 years. Most recently, he was the Joint Base Commander of Joint Base Lewis-McChord, leading one of the Army’s largest and most complex installations. During his career, Park commanded at every level and deployed multiple times to Iraq and Afghanistan in support of combat operations. Park served in key strategic assignments, including U.S. Army Pacific and Combined Forces Command, Republic of Korea, where he advanced U.S.–ROK military cooperation and combined defense planning.

    A graduate of West Point, the U.S. Army War College, and Harvard Kennedy School, Colonel Park has shaped Army modernization, installation management, and international security policy. His leadership has spanned combat operations, strategic planning, and institutional reform, reflecting a career dedicated to national defense and the profession of arms.

    00:00 – Personal Experience in Mosul, Iraq

    01:28 – Introduction

    02:12 – Part 1: Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink

    02:46 – The Getty Kouros

    04:12 – John Gottman’s Marriage Prediction Studies

    05:39 – Case Study: Mr. Amadou Diallo Shooting

    06:58 – NCT Scenario Example

    11:15 – The Limits of Human Cognition

    11:33 – Insights from The User Illusion by Tor Nørretranders

    12:55 – Thin Slicing and Summary of Blink

    15:25 – The 10,000-Hour Rule from Outliers

    18:52 – Introduction to AI in Military Contexts

    20:11 – Project Maven Overview

    20:28 – Palantir’s Role in Military Intelligence

    21:56 – Exia Labs: Project Blue

    22:24 – AlphaGo, Move 37, and Military Applications

    24:46 – Centaur Chess – Human-AI Collaboration

    26:31 – Adversaries and AI

    27:57 – Exponential Progress & Future of Military Operations

    29:42 – Tactical Recommendations for Modern Leaders

    35:12 – Closing


    Referenced in this episode:

    Malcom Gladwell's Blink: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blink:_The_Power_of_Thinking_Without_Thinking

    The Getty's Kouros: https://www.getty.edu/art/collection/object/103VNP

    Gottman Institute Marriage and Couples Research: https://www.gottman.com/about/research/couples/

    Case of Mr. Amadou Diallo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Amadou_Diallo

    The User Illusion by Tor Nørretranders: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/106732.The_User_Illusion

    https://deepmind.google/research/projects/alphago/

    Malcom Gladwell's Outliers https://www.amazon.com/Outliers-Story-Success-Malcolm-Gladwell/dp/0316017930

    Project Maven https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Maven


    Jay Miseli: Practical Applications of Maneuver Theory (How vs. What) | Decision Advantage #2 Sep 06, 2025
    Show notes

    Jay Miseli is a retired US Army officer and proven executive leader, founder, and innovator with 30 years of experience delivering results in military organizations and industry. Jay is Co-Founder of Red Thread X and has led Sales and Business Development for a $50M technology firm as a Senior Vice President.

    His military career spanned a broad range of responsibilities including large unit command, executive-level plans and operations, multinational and cross-agency coordination, US Army combat vehicle modernization, human resource and program management, and budget programming and execution. Jay continues to support strategic wargaming and analysis as a highly qualified expert for Army Futures Command.

    Jay attended the United States Military Academy at West Point, New York, where he completed a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering. Jay holds a master’s degree in operations research from the Georgia Institute of Technology, and he earned the academic title of Assistant Professor of Mathematics as course director for the advanced mathematics program at West Point.Jay lives and works in the greater Austin area where he can enjoy the many opportunities to mountain bike, hike, and be outdoors and working in the burgeoning tech and defense innovation sectors.


    00:05 - Intro

    00:34 - Controlling transitions

    02:51 - Force the enemy's transitions

    04:57 - Enemy SITTEMP

    07:03 - Key Terrain

    07:52 - Gettysburg

    08:57 - When/where to dismount?

    15:30 - COP - digital and analog

    16:11 - Digital Fires and PTT Command Nets

    18:49 - Graphic control measures and boundaries / FSCMs

    23:13 - METT - TC variables and forms of contact

    25:25 - Tracking and reporting Enemy BDA


    Referenced in the episode:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Gettysburg,_third_day_cavalry_battles


    Jay Miseli: Maneuver Theory, Surfaces and Gaps, OODA Loop | Decision Advantage #1 Sep 06, 2025
    Show notes

    Jay Miseli is a retired US Army officer and proven executive leader, founder, and innovator with 30 years of experience delivering results in military organizations and industry. Jay is Co-Founder of Red Thread X and has led Sales and Business Development for a $50M technology firm as a Senior Vice President.

    His military career spanned a broad range of responsibilities including large unit command, executive-level plans and operations, multinational and cross-agency coordination, US Army combat vehicle modernization, human resource and program management, and budget programming and execution. Jay continues to support strategic wargaming and analysis as a highly qualified expert for Army Futures Command.

    Jay attended the United States Military Academy at West Point, New York, where he completed a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering. Jay holds a master’s degree in operations research from the Georgia Institute of Technology, and he earned the academic title of Assistant Professor of Mathematics as course director for the advanced mathematics program at West Point.Jay lives and works in the greater Austin area where he can enjoy the many opportunities to mountain bike, hike, and be outdoors and working in the burgeoning tech and defense innovation sectors.

    00:05 Background

    00:38 War of Words in the Kinetic Activity in North Korea

    00:52 BCT vs. BN Fight

    02:21 Bicycle Wheels

    03:17 Maneuver Theories Intro

    04:05 Move Strike Protect

    04:06 JFC Fuller

    06:32 Interior and Exterior Lines

    06:52 Battle of LC X-Ray

    07:40 Battle of Little Bighorn

    08:10 Surfaces and Gaps

    10:27 Maneuver Based Fires vs Fire Based Maneuver

    11:24 Pacific Theater

    12:05 World War II European Theater

    13:20 ISD Methodology

    17:32 Expanding Torrent Model

    18:58 Boyd Cycle / OODA LoopReferenced in the episode:

    https://www.americanprogress.org/article/north-korea-and-the-war-of-words/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._F._C._Fuller

    https://lzxray.com/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Little_Bighorn

    https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/pacific-strategy-1941-1944

    https://www.nationalww2museum.org/sites/default/files/styles/wide_large/public/2017-07/Pacific%20Strategy%20Map.jpg?h=33be4f59

    https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/topics/european-theater-operations

    https://web.archive.org/web/20181215223002/https://history.amedd.army.mil/booksdocs/wwii/woundblstcs/chapter1.htm

    https://gacbe.ac.in/pdf/ematerial/18BDS62C-U3.pdf


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