Counterpoints: The Sports Analytics Podcast from MIT Sloan Management Review

Latest Episodes:

The Economic Impact of Sitting NBA Superstars May 02, 2019

Show notes

When NBA superstars like Steph Curry, Joel Embiid, or Kawhi Leonard are given a planned night off, the impact of their absence isn’t just felt on the floor - it’s a financial issue as well. Whether it’s fans not getting what they believe they paid for, prices on the secondary ticket markets crumbling, or teams dealing with empty seats and depressed TV viewership, the consequences of a planned absence of a major star reverberate across the sport. But just how much is everyone losing when stars sit out - and which stars are creating the biggest holes in NBA pockets? To get to the bottom of one of the biggest financial questions surrounding the NBA, Paul spoke to Scott Kaplan, who presented his paper detailing the economic impact of NBA Superstars at the 2019 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Second-Grade Soccer Superstars Apr 18, 2019

Show notes

Even as soccer has become a multibillion-dollar business, with superstar transfer fees exceeding nine digits figures in euros, the best clubs can still gain a competitive advantage through their youth academies. Ajax, FC Barcelona, and Manchester United are just a few examples of teams that have consistently developed diamonds in the rough into championship contributors. But to develop those players, first you have to find them — and find them before anyone else does. At Chelsea Football Club, home to an academy that has recently produced burgeoning talents like Callum Hudson-Odoi and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, some of that responsibility falls on the head of research and innovation Ben Smith.

Buyer Beware! MLB Free Agents Underperform Their Contracts Apr 04, 2019

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Almost every team’s fans can point to a signature free agent signing that fell flat. Sometimes the reasons for the players’ underperformance are clear -- injuries for example. But often, it’s harder to pinpoint the cause. In those cases we tend to point to lack of effort as the culprit. This is what researchers call “shirking.” According to Richard Paulsen, who presented his paper “New Evidence in the Study of Shirking in Major League Baseball,” at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, “shirking occurs when an employee exerts effort... that is suboptimal in the eyes of the employer.” Richard speaks with us about his research on shirking and his belief that the Phillies are going to regret at least one free-agent signing from this off-season.

How Much Do Coaches Actually Matter? Mar 21, 2019

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Eddie Robinson at Grambling. Mike Krzyzewski at Duke. Gregg Popovich with the Spurs. It’s hard to underestimate the impact these coaches have had on their organizations. But are coaches always an X factor? Consider the Golden State Warriors. Dominating as they have been under Steve Kerr’s steady guiding hand, they have been every bit as successful during his two extended absences. So, how much do coaches actually matter? Two researchers from the University of Chicago just might have the answer.

"Out-getting" Is the Next Great Baseball Strategy. Or Not. Mar 07, 2019

Show notes

Most Counterpoints listeners are well familiar with the sweeping changes that Moneyball brought to offensive strategy in baseball. Are we now on the cusp of a similarly profound transformation of pitching? Some believe the practice of "out-getting" is just that. Out-getting focuses getting outs as efficiently as possible, irrelevant of who gets them, when, and how. It upends traditional convention about how long or frequently a pitcher should pitch, in which role, or in which circumstances. Will out-getting prove to be a Moneyball-level transformation that ushers in fundamental change or just an occasional strategy deployed as much by desperation as by tactical brilliance? Ben and Paul disagree.

Mapping Tom Brady's Brain Feb 21, 2019

Show notes

It is incredibly difficult to judge individual talent in the NFL, because so much of a player's ability to succeed is based on context: his teammates and the system in which he operates. But the need to isolate performance is huge. Those who gain a reliable method will have a huge advantage. So where do you start? You start with the most valuable position on the field, the quarterback. Then, you isolate further on what appears to be the greatest differentiator between elite level quarterbacks: their minds. The ultimate goal: to understand how a quarterback processes information and to track the patterns their minds tend to follow. Or said another way: to map Tom Brady's brain. This is the quest of ESPN's Bryan Burke, who will be presenting this research on deep learning and quarterback decision-making at the 2019 Sloan Sports Analytics conference next week. He joined us for a preview of his work.

What Would Happen if Baseball Outlawed the Shift? Feb 07, 2019

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Supporters of the shift believe it's a solid baseball strategy. By overloading defenders to the side of the field where a hitter routinely drives the ball, teams should get outs more easily. When to deploy the shift is a game of numbers. It depends on the likelihood of the batter to hit the ball one direction or the other, given his tendencies and the circumstances on the field. It's analytical thinking in all its glory. And yet there is a growing legion of shift haters. The drumbeat of those who blame the shift not just for reducing hits, but for increasing strikeouts, robbing the game of excitement, and any number of other sins grows louder by the day. So what would happen if the shift was banned? That's the question legendary baseball writer Jayson Stark set out to investigate. He joined us to share his findings.

Is It Possible to Judge Individual Talent in the NFL? Jan 24, 2019

Show notes

When the Patriots and the Rams take the field on Sunday, February 3, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta for Super Bowl 53, both teams will be there on the backs of several players few expected to become as important as they are — and in spite of several others who failed to meet expectations. Or so Cade Massey would have us believe. Massey is a professor of the practice at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and the co-host of “Wharton Moneyball” on SiriusXM Business Radio. He argues that it’s [damn near] impossible to judge individual talent in football. We invited Cade to defend this thesis.

Why F1 Mathematicians Should Be Paid More than Drivers Jan 10, 2019

Show notes

On the Formula One circuit, tenths and even hundredths of seconds can be the difference between podium glory and being out of a job. Races are won and lost thanks to the skills of the drivers and the strength of the car, it is true. But as the sheer volume of data available to F1 teams increases, another group of individuals have become key contributors to a team’s success: data analysts. Analysts run countless simulations, incorporating every possible variable, to inform their drivers’ race strategy on Sunday and achieve maximum performance for the driver and the racecar. But while salaries and sponsorships can push a driver’s annual income into the 8-figure range, the mathematical brains in the background make just a fraction of that. If the person analyzing the numbers and making decisions about race strategy is just as important as the person steering the wheel, shouldn’t they also be reaping the financial windfall? James Allen certainly thinks so. The President of Motorsport Network, James has covered Formula 1 as a journalist for over 30 years and has seen firsthand the sport’s data-driven revolution. We asked James to defend his position.

So, Do Analytics Actually Work? Dec 27, 2018

Show notes

In this week’s episode, we take on a question that could lead to an existential crisis for this very podcast: How much of a difference do analytics actually make? We’d better hope the answer is that analytics make a big difference. The emergence of sports analytics has spawned quite an industry already, and it promises a great deal of growth still to come. We don’t want to be overly dramatic, but there are jobs on the line. Nevertheless, we have a duty on this podcast to take on the hard questions. Analytics naysayers and doubters abound. Do they know something that true believers have failed to see, either willfully or otherwise? Could Charles Barkley be right? Are analytics simply a baseless conceit created by a bunch of nerds so they could get jobs in sports and, you know, dates? Analytics expert and author Ben Alamar returns to help seek out proof that analytics do lead to improved results.