Common Sense Fantasy Baseball

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**Common Sense Fantasy Baseball**

Applying a little common sense to your fantasy baseball team

Latest Episodes:

Ep 34: Greg Jewett returns! Baseball will too. Mar 26, 2020

Show notes

Opening day didn't happen...yet. But @gjewett9 and I discuss baseball anyway!

2:00 Greg's current project

6:05 Bo Bichette - SS

20:35 Isiah Kiner-Falefa - C

25:35 Josh Bell - 1B (and a great call out by Greg, CJ Cron)

30:30 Jeff McNeil - 2B (with Cesar Hernandez call out by Greg)

35:35 Yandy Diaz - 3B

39:00 OFs (Judge, Eloy, Stanton, Soler, Franimal, Schwarber)

45:00 Luzardo and Urias - SPs (Greg's call out: Rich Hill)

48:35 RPs

56:15 Rougned Odor

59:05 Ian Happ (or Dansby Swanson one pick later!)

Ep 33: Zack Waxman takes us through ADP 300! Mar 03, 2020

Show notes

Welcome back @zackroto!

We start off talking some strategy:

1:40 Top SPs - Aces, Pocket Aces and how we draft them

5:10 The case for an Ace

10:50 Draft Champions vs FAAB leagues -- the point in the draft where strategy changes

Then we discuss rounds 19 and 20:

18:05 Avoid AJ Pollock at 272

19:45 Avoid Joey Votto at 271

20:55 Buster Posey or Danny Jansen?

23:35 Gregory Polanco and his risks vs Solak, Wil Myers, or others and their risks

26:35 What if Solak wasn't UT only?

27:45 Players that drop and players to reach on

29:50 Domingo Santana's path to playing time

31:50 SPs I'm not really looking at here (largely because of innings concerns and other PT risks)

34:25 Not so into Myers or Kieboom for 2020

35:20 Josh James or Mackenzie Gore rather than lower-upside options

38:30 Catchers without much upside, and closers that might not be closers

39:20 Target Dylan Carlson at 295! (instead of Kyle Tucker way earlier...or maybe at all)

43:40 More pitchers I'm just not drafting

44:45 Target Domingo Santana at 292

46:20 Avoid Austin Riley for 2020 (at pick 294)

48:00 Corey Dickerson - kinda boring and inconsistent

48:50 Kyle Seager and Willy Adames

51:30 My weird take on Travis Shaw

And we even give some bonus picks (after 300):

57:20 Zack advises me against Kevin Pillar at pick 307

59:40 Target Evan White at 349

1:00:15 Target Matt Magill at 333

1:01:00 Matt Carpenter -- what do you think, Zack?

1:02:05 Target Robinson Cano at 336

1:04:45 What's a good floor player after pick 300?

Thanks for listening! Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Ep 32: John (@MLBMovingAVG) and rounds 17 - 18 Feb 24, 2020

Show notes

Please welcome John (@MLBMovingAVG) as we discuss our draft process and talk some ADP.

1:15 It's all about PRICE. As John says, "You can't force your will on the market."

2:25 Drafting in reverse

7:15 Take the value (when you have players whose skills are close, going far apart)

10:50 Jim Cramer show up briefly

13:30 AJ Puk aka Axl Rose

Then we get into round 17 and 18...

15:35 Adrian Houser (ADP 248) and his pitch-mix changes (sinkers for GBs, curveballs for Ks)

34:10 Shin-Soo Choo (ADP 241) vs Austin Hays (ADP 251) ...unabashed age-ism

42:20 Mark Canha (ADP 257) and his crazy OBP-league value

47:25 Starling Castro (ADP 261) and his late-2019 push

49:30 Aaron Civale (ADP 269) is impossible to barrel, and team context is fantastic

51:45 Chris Archer (ADP 268) is K machine, but not the best for ratios, and team context is pretty meh

57:40 Yandy Diaz (ADP 258) and Renato Nunez (ADP 256) and Joey Votto (ADP 270) -- maybe find a 1B before this

1:06:10 Emilio Pagan (ADP 259), Brandon Kintzler (266), Scott Oberg (260), Wade Davis (265) -- not a good spot for RPs

1:17:20 Sam Hilliard (ADP 267) and the crowded Rockies OF (a team built for platoons)

1:21:55 Trent Grisham (ADP 286) vs all these other OF guys

1:37:30 Cesar Hernandez (ADP 264) at a position that's harder to fill

1:41:35 Positions available here and what to do with them

Thanks for listening! Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Ep 31: Colin Weatherwax Returns! Feb 18, 2020

Show notes

Please welcome Colin back to the podcast! He's on Twitter at @CWeatherwax13.

We discuss some pitcher risers https://twitter.com/RyanBHQ/status/1229121960308690945

2:05 Elite SPs moving up

3:20 Jose Berrios up from ADP 95 (Nov) to 79 (Feb)

5:10 Edwin Diaz up from 140 to 116

8:30 Doolittle and Nick Anderson moving up

Then we turn to some hitter risers https://twitter.com/RyanBHQ/status/1229218664160931840

13:50 Luis Robert up from 106 (Nov) to 77 (Feb)

15:45 Bo Bichette up from 79 to 64

25:10 Brian Anderson up from 261 to 233

And then some hitter fallers https://twitter.com/RyanBHQ/status/1229539025003962372/photo/1

29:05 Anthony Rizzo down from 60 (Nov) to 74 (Feb)

31:20 Yasiel Puig down from 107 to 127

35:10 Willie Calhoun down from 150 to 174

40:30 Jeff McNeil down from 85 to 99

42:25 We talk team construction (especially pitcher strategy in 15-teamers)

And lastly, we cover round 16 ADP -- a great round!

1:00:15 Target Mitch Keller at 227, Caleb Smith at 228, Griffin Canning at 229, and Masahiro Tanaka at 231

1:03:45 Target Sean Murphy at 233 and Dansby Swanson at 234

1:06:50 Colin likes Luis Arraez at 235 if you need AVG

1:07:50 Target Gio Urshela at 239

1:09:20 Target Yadier Molina at 237

...we also like CJ Cron and Brian Anderson

...and are kind of avoiding Francisco Mejia and Dustin May, because look at the other options here!

Thanks for listening! Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Ep 30: Max Freeze - Earned HRs, Oscar Mercado, and Rd 15 Feb 15, 2020

Show notes

Please welcome Max! He's @FreezeStats on Twitter. We talk about:

0:40 Max's blog and research

4:40 Players who earned more HR than they achieved

9:15 We consider what Dodger Stadium could do for Mookie Betts

14:50 "Not all barrels are created equal" (Launch angle and pulling the ball matter a ton)

20:25 Ozuna - example of a pull hitter who "earned" more than he achieved

22:35 Adding in Alex Chamberlain's "Deserved Barrels"

25:00 We move on to a player debate on Oscar Mercado

Then we discuss rd 15...

38:05 Probably avoid Jo Adell at 210

40:20 Target Justin Upton at 220

41:10 Target Avisail Garcia at 224 (and hope he plays every day!)

42:20 Throw back to "Not all barrels are created equal" -- Max's next research project

43:25 Target Rougned Odor at 217

45:25 Target Jose Urquidy

47:45 Avoid Kolten Wong at 216

48:55 Discussion on Narvaez and other catchers in this range

51:00 One last exhortation to avoid risky closers...although Nick Anderson might be a value even without 20+ saves.

Thanks for listening! Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Ep 29: Rounds 13 and 14 with Mike (SP Streamer) Feb 11, 2020

Show notes

Please welcome Mike! Twitter: @SPStreamer

First we take a quick look back at earlier rounds and some guys Mike targets and avoids:

1:40 Target Sonny Gray at 98

8:20 Target Carlos Santana at 144

10:35 Avoid Chris Paddack at 51

13:45 Avoid Keston Hiura at 42

Then we get into rounds 13 and 14:

19:00 Target Kenta Maeda (currently 184)

25:00 Target Hunter Dozier (186)

27:35 Bryan Reynolds / PIT discussion

30:45 Carlos Martinez discussion

33:15 Avoid Lance McCullers (194)

34:40 Luke Weaver discussion

36:15 Avoid Sean Doolittle (185) and Giovanny Gallegos (196) and Nick Anderson any presumptive closer where there is role-risk or committee risk

40:55 Target Luke Voit (200)

44:00 Avoid Didi Gregorius (201)

47:50 Quick thoughts on Joe Mugrove and Brandon Lowe

48:45 Target Christian Walker (202)

51:30 Heaney and Folty discussion

53:50 Senzel and McCutchen discussion

56:35 Target Christian Vazquez (210)

Thanks for listening! Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Ep 28: Matt Wi77iams and our targets in rounds 11 and 12 Feb 09, 2020

Show notes

Big thanks to Matt (@MattWi77iams) for joining me to discuss a couple very full rounds of ADP!

We discuss a few of Matt's #2020PlayerBreakdowns:

4:45 Lourdes Gurriel

11:30 Jeff McNeil

12:50 Projecting growth

15:50 Garrett Hampson

19:30 Max Kepler

Then we look at players going in the 11th and 12th rounds (ADP 151 - 180).

30:15 Target: Corey Seager at ADP 156

33:55 Target: Scott Kingery at 159

39:00 Potential Target: Gavin Lux at 161

41:25 Avoid: Emilio Pagan at 151

42:25 Target: Kyle Hendricks at 154

45:55 Target: Jorge Polanco at 157

47:10 Avoid: Byron Buxton at 164

49:00 Random Trea Turner discussion

52:05 Potential Target: Julio Urias at 165

55:45 Target: Salvador Perez at 168

58:30 Target: Edwin Encarnacion at 170

1:00:30 Avoid: Aristides Aquino at at 173

1:02:40 Target: JD Davis at 180

1:09:40 Avoid: Sean Manaea at 172

1:12:00 Bonus Target: Khris Davis at 181

Thanks for listening! Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Ep 27: The need for speed Feb 06, 2020

Show notes

I talk speed vs power. Let me know what you think on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Ep 26: Player values with Brian Rudd Feb 03, 2020

Show notes

Please welcome Brian (@RuddHQ on Twitter) and enjoy our discussions about the following players!

1:25 Tyler Glasnow at ADP ~68 (4:35 vs Paxton or Woodruff)

6:50 Hector Neris at ~140 (10:25 vs Iglesias, Kimbrel, Jansen, and Diaz)

13:50 Yasiel Puig at ~115 (19:15 vs Benintendi, Mercado, and Luis Robert)

25:25 Rhys Hoskins at ~116 (33:05 vs Carlos Santana or Edwin Encarnacion)

39:10 Adalberto Mondesi at ~35 (50:30 vs Villar or Robles) 57:35 What do you do later with SBs if you take Mondesi?

1:00:25 Danny Santana at ~125 (1:05:30 vs Kingery or Goodrum)

Thanks for listening! I'd love it if you write a review on iTunes, and please find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Ep 25: Ranking Closers with Greg Jewett Jan 30, 2020

Show notes

Please welcome Greg (https://twitter.com/gjewett9) and enjoy our conversation on all things Closers (and other RPs). Here's a link to his closer charts: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YQLeAKTjBGGerTdKUMQHYhxfVHi73Y9eJcEGlFh7Lr0/edit#gid=2012002294 3:45 Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Kirby Yates, Roberto Osuna -- The closest you can get to actual safety you can find at the closer position. Already things start to get riskier... 8:40 Edwin Diaz 13:50 Taylor Rogers (with Sergio Romo shout out) 15:20 Liam Hendricks 16:05 Brad Hand 17:50 Ken Giles 19:40 Kenley Jansen (with Blake Treinen shout out) 22:20 Raisel Iglesias (with Robert Stephenson shout out) 25:05 Emilio Pagan -- MOVING DOWN! (likely committee with Anderson, Castillo, Alvarado, and others) https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2020/01/28/its-the-ninth-inning-who-do-you-want-protecting-the-rays-lead/ 27:35 Brandon Workman (with Darwinzon Hernandez shout out) 30:05 Kind of skipped Hansel Robles and moved on to Archie Bradley (with Kevin Ginkel shout out) 32:30 Sean Doolittle (with Will Harris and Daniel Hudson discussion) 37:30 Oberg, Neris, Kimbrel, Kennedy, Colome, Jimenez, Leclerc (shout outs to Joely Rodriguez, Rowan Wick, Jeremy Jeffress) 44:50 Will Smith and Mark Melancon -- HERE ARE TWO MORE GUYS GOING WAY TOO EARLY. Get a guy with the job. 47:05 Matt Magill (ADP > 350!!!) (with Austin Adams shout out) -- VALUE 54:40 Pirates - Keone Kela (maybe Crick after he gets traded?) Spare yourself the headache 57:20 Orioles - Mychal Givens (and maybe Hunter Harvey...but beware: probably not many save opportunities for any Oriole) 59:30 Marlins - Brandon Kintzler maybe...Strop could sign, Stanek still maybe...just stay away 1:00:30 Giants - Greg: "I don't know." 1:02:35 Cardinals - Greg: "I have no idea." 1:05:15 Alex Reyes??? Value dart-throws: 50:40 Drew Pomeranz 1:07:25 Rowan Wick, Robert Stephenson, etc 1:10:05 Kevin Gausman ...Sergio Romo, Seth Lugo, and others in Greg's great article: https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/gjewett/76866/mlb-advanced-analytics-reliever-efficiency-rate-season-review/ I'd love it if you would write a kind review on iTunes, and let me know what you think on Twitter. I'm at https://twitter.com/commonsensefbb.

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