Stay ConnectedA podcast from the Foreign Policy Research Institute examining America’s role on the world stage. Every two weeks we’ll talk to experts about policy relevant news from around the world and why it matters for U.S. foreign policy.
Please note this podcast was named the Middle East Brief prior to 2021.
How important is the war in Ukraine for the United States? What should Washington do about it? Stephen Wertheim drops by to share some options for your consideration.
Learn more about Stephen's book Tomorrow, the World
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What motivates people who, when Russian invaded, decided to run towards the fire and assist Ukrainians? British Expeditionary Aid and Rescue, an aid organization, joins to share its experience.
BEAR's Website: https://www.britishexpeditionaryaidrescue.org/
Donation Link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/british-expeditionary-aid-rescue-ukraine
On the anniversary of Russia's invasion, Maria Romanenko shares her experience fleeing Ukraine and reflects on what the war means, both personally and broadly.
Link: Fundraiser for building a museum in the village of Yahidne to showcase Russia’s war crimes there.
What do the statistics and other indicators coming out of Russia these days actually mean, and which ones should we actually be paying attention to? Chris Miller and Andras Toth-Czifra stop by to discuss.
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Faced with a possible defeat in Ukraine, will Russia survive until 2084? FPRI Senior Fellow Philip Wasielewski and Maia Otarashvili, the Deputy Director of FPRI's Eurasia program discuss the future of Russia, from internal ethnic and leadership struggles to its sphere of influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus as Chinese and Turkish power rises in the region.
Read Philip Wasielewski's report "Will Russia Survive Until 2084?"
This episode was recorded live on Zoom on January 31, 2023.
How is Russia's economy doing as we start 2023? And how is mobilization going - if it is even possible? Nick Trickett joins to discuss.
Subscribe to the Bear Market Brief.
What has the war actually been like on the ground? How have communities, and the Ukrainian government reacted? Kirill, a Kyiv resident and open source conflict researcher, joins to share his experience.
Support Vostok SOS: https://vostok-sos.org/en/i-wanna-help/rekvizyty-dlia-hroshovoho-perekazu/
As we drop by Paris, what is president Macron's angle, diplomatically or otherwise, in the Ukraine War? And how do populists on both the right and left play in?
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on November 23, 2022.
What do Russians actually think about the war in Ukraine? How are sanctions being felt locally? And what can we learn - or not - from polls conducted in Russia's current political climate.
What spurred Italy's right wing populist wave? And what does it mean for EU policy? Federico Santi joins Aaron to discuss.
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on October 20, 2022.
How did Hungary stray from the liberal democratic path? What does that mean in practice? And what explains its contrarian position on Russia within the EU? Andras Toth-Czifra and Marta Pardavi join Aaron to discuss all things Hungary.
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on October 3, 2022.
Related reading: https://orban.media/
In this Bear Market Brief crossover episode, FPRI Templeton Fellow Phil Wasielewski joins host Aaron Schwartzbaum to provide an update on the war and take a step back. What is the broader strategic picture and what does it mean for Putin and Russia?
We've looked how the war in Ukraine has impacted politics in several countries, but what about the EU as a whole? Charles Lichfield joins to discuss.
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on September 14, 2022.
What exactly motivates Turkey's mercurial leader? On this episode, Sibel Oktay joins to discuss what's on Erdogan's mind these days and his angle on Ukraine, NATO, and more.
Join us as we cover all three Baltic States in (about) one hour. Guests Dr. Indra Ekmanis and Martynas Smitas share their views and some nuances on the current political and security juncture, as well as where the local Russian minority fits into all this.
The conversation with Indra Ekmanis was recorded on June 28 and July 3, 2022, and the conversation with Martynas Smitas was recorded on July 1, 2022.
Finland has a long border and similarly long history with Russia. How does the war in Ukraine change its defense and security picture? This week Aaron Schwartzbaum and Minna Alander discuss Finland's security calculus.
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on June 21, 2022.
Why and how did Sweden abandon centuries of neutrality, and where does it fit in the European security picture? This week Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with Oscar Jonsson about Sweden's NATO ambitions and the country's current political crisis.
After abandoning a policy of neutrality, Sweden was expected to rapidly join NATO in time for the June 28 summit in Madrid. Instead, Turkey, a NATO member since 1952, has blocked Sweden's accession, demanding a series of concessions ranging from support for Turkish counter terror operations to extraditing Swedish citizens of Kurdish origin. To discuss this issue, Aaron is joined by Dr. Paul Levin, the Director of Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies.
How has the war in Ukraine changed Poland's politics, security, and even society? And what about Warsaw's relationship with Brussels?
This week Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with Anna Wojcik and Wojciech Przybylski about Poland's past, present, and future in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on May 25, 2022.
The Russian invasion in Ukraine has bogged down, forcing President Vladimir Putin to wrestle with a series of questions about how to continue the invasion. The United States and its European Allies have pledged open-ended military support for Ukraine, allowing President Zelensky to replace equipment, and retain critical capabilities to defend the country. To discuss the latest developments in the war, Rob Lee, FPRI Senior Fellow, and Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA, join moderator Aaron Stein.
This discussion was recorded live on Zoom on May 12, 2022.
The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) is pleased to introduce a special Chain Reaction podcast series: The Continent.
The Continent explores how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe's politics and security. Host Aaron Schwartzbaum will "visit" a country on each episode, learning about key dynamics and trends from local experts.
In the first episode Aaron speaks with Marcel Dirsus and Jana Puglierin about Germany's response to the war in Ukraine. Just how important is this political moment for Germany? What does it mean for Germany to boost its military potential — and how might it use it?
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on May 11, 2022.
Russia is facing a manpower shortage and has a series of hard political choices to make, as it seeks to continue its invasion of Ukraine. To discuss this issue, Aaron speaks this week with Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA about the war, Russian options to escalate, and Putin's May 9th speech.
Since Trump’s infamous call for a border wall and vague, fear-mongering threats of a “caravan of migrants'', security along the US-Mexico border has become a topic of increasing interest for the average American. How much of a security concern does migration from South and Central America pose, if any, to the US? And how can the US address the root causes forcing this mass migration in a sustainable and non-destructive way?
Guest host Clint Watts will talk to Delphine Schrank, freelance journalist and former Reuters Latin American Chief Correspondent based in Mexico City. Delphine has traveled through Central America and Mexico with several migrant caravans. She and Clint will discuss the migrant experience traveling with a caravan and the root causes spurring these migrations.
The FY2023 Department of Defense budget has dropped and it is packed full of insights. To talk about the budget and what it means for the future of the Air Force and Navy, Aaron speaks with Valerie Insinna, the Air Force and Pentagon reporter for Breaking Defense.
Before many African migrants even see Europe, they are captured and imprisoned in migrant detention camps in Libya. These detention centers, while run by Libyan militias, were funded and enabled to be run by the European Union.
In this episode, Clint speaks with Ian Urbina, director of the Outlaw Ocean Project, a nonprofit journalism initiative exploring lawlessness on the high seas, who recently published a piece in the New Yorker “The Secretive Prisons That Keep Migrants Out of Europe”. He uncovered human rights abuses taking place in migrant detention camps in Libya and the international systems enabling the continued operation of these prisons.
The air war over Ukraine is now a month old. In this episode of Chain Reaction, Dr. Aaron Stein speaks with Dr. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council with new American engagement initiative, about the air war and the role defenses have played in frustrating Moscow's campaign.
The Syrian Civil War led to likely the most prominent migration crisis in modern history. In 2015, the European Union was forced to reckon with a surge of millions of migrants fleeing devastation and danger in Syria.
Foreign Policy Research Institute Distinguished Fellow Clint Watts talks with Jessica Bither, senior expert on migration at the Bosch Foundation. Jessica’s expertise lies in the intersection of technology and migration and she has extensively studied European migration patterns. They will discuss the security implications of the 2015 migration crisis and how this affected current attitudes and policy towards migrants in the European Union.
In this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Mike "Pako" Benitez, a retiring active-duty officer with over 25 years of service in the U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Air Force, about the history of no fly zones, the challenges in setting one up, and the risk of inadvertent escalation. Mike wrote a recent article with Mike “Starbaby” Pietrucha about the topic and is the editor of the Merge newsletter.
Related reading:
The Dangerous Allure of the No Fly Zone - Mike Benitez & Mike Pietrucha - War on the Rocks
After seven days of conflict, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made clear gains, but has also suffered from obvious deficiencies. In this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks again with Rob Lee, FPRI Senior Fellow, about the trajectory of the war, Russian challenges, and the future of the conflict.
This conversation was recorded on March 3, 2022.
International measures to slow climate change have been too little and too late, and the consequences of global inaction increasingly affect daily life here in the US. Americans are already being forced to move due to climate related disaster.
In this episode, Clint talks to Jesse Keenan, Associate Professor of Real Estate at Tulane University in New Orleans. They discuss how climate change is specifically affecting the US and what Americans should - and should not - be worried about in the near future as the planet warms.
In today's Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a FPRI Senior Fellow, and Michael Kofman, the Russia Studies Director at CNA, about the situation on the Ukrainian-Russian border and the risk of "spillage" beyond the border.
Related reading:
"Putin's Wager in Russia's Standoff with the West" - War on the Rocks
"Moscow's Compellence Strategy" - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Excessive heat. Heavier rains. Natural disasters are growing in number and severity. Devastation from climate change is already a reality across much of the world and is prompting those in the regions most vulnerable to warming temperatures to ask themselves the question: do I stay or do I go?
In this episode, Clint talks with Dr. Jola Ajibade, Assistant Professor of Geography at Portland State University about how different global communities are migrating or adapting to climate change.
The Russian military build-up on the border with Ukraine is complete, raising the risk of an imminent invasion. To discuss the latest, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a FPRI senior fellow, about Moscow's force posture and potential military scenarios.
On this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron spoke with Anna Nadibaidze about her new report "Russian Perceptions of Military AI, Automation, and Autonomy." The conversation touched on Russian views of Artificial Intelligence, autonomy, and the ethical use of these types of weapons.
The report is available for download on www.fpri.org
What does a warming planet mean for our national security? In this special segment, Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Distinguished Research Fellow Clint Watts talks to three experts on the impacts of climate change to US national security in a special Chain Reaction podcast series.
In late January, President Biden signed an executive order placing the climate crisis at the center of U.S. foreign policy and national security. Climate change is an unavoidable problem for everyone, but not every country will suffer the same ecological, social, political and military effects as our planet warms. Which places around the world will suffer the most traumatic consequences from extreme weather, rising seas and hotter temperatures?
FPRI Distinguished Research Fellow Clint Watts talks with John Conger, senior advisor to the Council on Strategic Risk and Senior U.S. Advisor to the International Military Council on Climate and Security to help answer these questions and provide an overview of the global threat of climate change and its implications on national security.
On this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Michael Kofman, who serves as Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, about the latest developments in Ukraine. The discussion centered on Russia's potential use of force and why the Kremlin may conclude that the actual costs of an invasion are lower than is commonly assumed.
On this episode, Aaron speaks with Dr. Laura Grego, Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy at MIT, about Russia's November 15 test of a ground-based anti-satellite weapon, the challenges of space debris, and potential options to limit such tests in the future.
On this week's show, Aaron speak with Becca Wasser, a fellow in the defense program and co-lead of the Gaming Lab at the Center for a New American Security, about her recent article for War on the Rocks about the next National Defense Strategy, integrated deterrence, and the issues Washington should be considering as it plans for strategic competition with peer competitors.
On this episode, Aaron speaks with Susannah Patton, a Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the United States Studies Centre, about the recent submarine agreement. For listeners, check out Susannah's latest report, Correcting the Course: How the Biden Administration can Compete for Influence in the Indo-Pacific.
This week we’d like to introduce a special episode recorded in collaboration with FPRI’s BMB Russia, a news brief that brings together the latest on Russia’s economy, politics, business, and political risk environment.
In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond.
This week, Jan Matti Dollbaum, Morvan Lallouet, Ben Noble, authors of the book "Navalny: Putin's Nemesis, Russia's Future?" and Eilish Hart, editor of BMB Ukraine, join to discuss all things Alexei Navalny.
This week we’d like to introduce a special episode recorded in collaboration with FPRI’s BMB Russia, a news brief that brings together the latest on Russia’s economy, politics, business, and political risk environment.
In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond.
This week, Felix Light stops by to discuss Russia's upcoming Duma elections, what they mean, who's involved, and what to expect.
To discuss recent events in Ukraine, Aaron speaks this week with Rob Lee, a FPRI Eurasia Fellow, about his recent report, Russia's Coercive Diplomacy. The conversation explores Rob's research about Russia's military build up around Ukraine and what that could signal for Russian coercive signaling during Zapad 2021.
The Iranian government is accused of using a loitering munition to strike the tanker Mercer Street, killing two crew members. The attack is the latest incident at sea involving the Iranians and international shipping. To discuss Iranian strategy in the Persian Gulf, Aaron speaks with Afshon Ostovar, an Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, about escalation dynamics and Iranian strategy.
On this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Chris Dougherty, senior fellow for defense at CNAS and the co-lead of the CNAS gaming lab, about a recent article he wrote for War on the Rocks, Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy's Strategic Bankruptcy.
In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond.
This week Aaron speaks with Fabian Burkhardt, a research fellow at the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, about Russian PM Mikhail Mishustin, his agenda, and what his role means for governance in Russia.
President Biden just finished a three-country trip, where he met with world leaders in the United Kingdom, Belgium, and in Switzerland. The main focus of the trip was to reinvigorate U.S. alliances in Europe and with NATO. To discuss the trip, Aaron spoke this week with Rachel Ellehuus, the deputy director and a senior fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
This week we’d like to introduce a special series recorded in collaboration with FPRI’s BMB Russia, a news brief that brings together the latest on Russia’s economy, politics, business, and political risk environment.
In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond.
This week Aaron is joined by Isabel Linzer, a research analyst on technology and democracy at Freedom House, and Nick Trickett, a specialist on Russia’s political economy and the author of the Russia section of Freedom Houses’ Nations in Transit report, to discuss the state of Russian democracy, as well as Russia’s electoral and internet freedom.
On this episode, Aaron speaks with Mike Benitez, a U.S. military officer and creator of the Merge newsletter, about the challenges of finding mobile rocket launchers in an urban environment.
The views expressed in this episode do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
This week, Aaron spoke with Steven Feldstein, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about his new book, The Rise of Digital Repression: How Technology is Reshaping Power, Politics, and Resistance (Oxford University Press, 2021).
The relationship between the Russian Federation and Republic of Turkey is one of the most important bilateral relationships in Eurasia today. This week Aaron chats with Robert Hamilton and Anna Mikulska, authors of FPRI's latest report "Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West '' about the major drivers of the bilateral relationship and its likely future trajectory.
Read the report here: https://www.fpri.org/article/2021/04/cooperation-competition-and-compartmentalization-russian-turkish-relations-and-their-implications-for-the-west/
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Army War College, U.S. Army, or the Department of Defense.
In this episode, Aaron speaks with Mule about the lessons that the United States should from the Russian Aerospace Forces’ operations in Syria. Mule is preparing to deploy to Jordan to command an operational support squadron.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
On this week's episode, Dr. Thomas Lynch joins the show to discuss his latest book, Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition, which includes a series of essays about Great Power Competition and U.S. national security policy. The podcast discussed themes from the essays and U.S. policy under both President Trump and President Biden.
The book is available for free on the National Defense University Website.
In this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Nicholas Danforth, a Non-Resident Senior Research Fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, about the current state of U.S.-Turkish relations during the Biden administration.
The air war against the Islamic State was critical to the territorial defeat of the group's territorial caliphate and a key enabler of American partner operation led ground combat. To discuss the air war, Aaron spoke this week with Stacie L. Pettyjohn, director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE, and Becca Wasser, a fellow in the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, about their recent multi-authored book, The Role of U.S. Airpower in Defeating ISIS.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has launched a global posture review, shortly after taking office. To discuss the process and the likely implications for U.S. posture in the Central Command area of operation, Aaron speaks this week with Becca Wasser, a Fellow at the Center for New American Security's Defense Program and Co-Lead, The Gaming Lab.
Great power competition is likely to outlast the Trump presidency. To discuss the Biden Administration’s national security priorities and the role that special forces are likely to play, Aaron speaks with Tim Ball, a special forces officer and a fellow in FPRI’s National Security Program.
The war in Nagorno-Karabakh is a human tragedy, but also provides observers the opportunity to monitor modern conflict and think closely about lessons for Western militaries. To discuss the on-going conflict and what it may mean for future combat, Aaron speaks this week with Michael Kofman, Director of the Russia Studies Program at the CNA, Jack Watling, Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, and Rob Lee, a PhD candidate at King's College, London.
Related Reading:
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Two Weeks In - War on the Rocks
https://bit.ly/31xD9CE
The Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh Is Giving Us a Glimpse into the Future of War - RUSI https://bit.ly/35jJLFK
A few weeks ago, an AI algorithm beat a human pilot in a series of simulated dogfights, as part of the AlphaDogfight challenge to “demonstrate the feasibility of developing effective, intelligent autonomous agents capable of defeating adversary aircraft in a dogfight." The simulation touched off debate about the future of air combat. To discuss this, Aaron spoke this week with "Mule", an F-15E Weapons Systems Officer and Ryan "Stinger" Fishel, a F-15E pilot, about the simulation and the future of air combat.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
Events in Syria have brought American and Russian militaries into close contact. In recent weeks, a video emerged showing Russian helicopters flying low over an American patrol, and it was later revealed that US soldiers were injured when a Russian vehicle rammed an American vehicle. To discuss ground deconfliction, Aaron spoke this week with Bob Hamilton, FPRI Black Sea Fellow and a Professor of Eurasian Studies at the Army War College.
Stay tuned for the launch of FPRI’s upcoming book Russia’s War in Syria: Assessing Russian Military Capabilities and Lessons Learned on September 14th.
Israel and the United Arab Emirates agreed to begin negotiations to normalize relations, so long as Prime Minister Netanyahu suspends his plans to annex the West Bank. The move was widely welcomed as beneficial for regional stability, but also raised questions about whether it was sustainable. To discuss the agreement, Aaron spoke with Dr. Joshua Krasna, a senior fellow at FPRI and a professor at NYU's Center for Global Affairs.
What is the latest with Turkey's F-35? To get the latest, Aaron speaks this week with Valerie Insinna, Air Warfare Reporter at Defense News, about the latest with Turkey and the F-35.
In this cross-over podcast with Arms Control Wonk, Aaron speaks with Fabian Hinz, a frequent guest on the podcast, about the recent explosions in Iran and what open source intelligence has revealed about the two incidents.
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has threatened to send armed forces across the border with Libya, following Turkey's successful ousting of Khalifa Haftar from territory his militia held in the western part of the country. The flashpoint is Sirte, where Turkish-backed forces are deployed and possibly preparing to assault, and which Sisi has pledged to defend. To discuss the Egyptian view of the conflict in Libya, Aaron speaks with Michael Hanna, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation in New York.
The United States Treasury will soon announce the first round of sanctions associated with the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which is intended to punish the regime for its killing of civilians and aims to help broker dialogue to end the conflict. To discuss the sanctions, and whether they may do more harm than good, Aaron spoke with Basma Alloush, a policy and advocacy advisor at the Norweigan Refugee Council, and Alex Simon, the director of the Syria Program with Synaps. This podcast expands upon Basma and Alex's recent article on the same subject for War on the Rocks.
Read the article here: https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/will-more-syria-sanctions-hurt-the-very-civilians-they-aim-to-protect/
In this week's episode, Aaron speaks with two of the three authors of The ISIS Reader: Milestone Texts of the Islamic State Movement, Haroro J. Ingram and Craig Whiteside. The discussion touched on the period after the killing of Zarqawi, but before the group's take over of Mosul. For interested listeners, Haroro and Craig spoke in more depth about other aspects of the book on the Modern War Institute Podcast and on FDD's Long War Journal Podcast.
Modern War Institute Podcast : https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-islamic-state-happened/
FDD's Long War Journal Podcast: https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/05/generation-jihad-ep-8-the-islamic-states-foundational-texts.php
Note: The audio quality of parts of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Lebanon finds itself in a financial crisis, brought about by years of economic mismanagement and political dysfunction. The economic fall-out from a relatively good response to the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated these negative trends, raising questions about the trajectory and strength of on-going protests about social and economic inequality. To discuss the latest events in Lebanon, Aaron speaks this week with Joyce Karam, the Washington correspondent for the National.
This week, Aaron held a virtual discussion with Inna Rudolf, the author of "The Future of the Popular Mobilization Forces after the Assassination of Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis," the third chapter for FPRI's forthcoming edited volume, Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics*. The conversation focused on the Popular Mobilization Forces, the role of the now-deceased Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis within the organization, the Iranian influence over the PMF, and policy options to consider in the near future.
*The edited volume was made possible by a grant from GPD Charitable Trust.
This week, Aaron held a virtual discussion with Ben Robin-D'Cruz and Renad Mansour, the authors of "Making Sense of the Sadrists: Fragmentation and Unstable Politics," the first chapter for FPRI's forthcoming edited volume, Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics*. The conversation focused on the Sadrist movement, its place in Iraqi politics, how it balances relations with Iran and the United States, and where it may be headed in the near
future.
Read the full report here: shorturl.at/myzN7
*The edited volume was made possible by a grant from GPD Charitable Trust.
On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Dr. Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor at Naval PostGraduate School and a Fox Fellow at FPRI, about Iran's response to the COVID-19 virus, its regional priorities, and what the future may entail for competition with the United States.
The Patriot missile system is back in the news, with the Turkish request for two Patriot batteries and the introduction of the system into Iraq to protect U.S. forces from Iranian missile attack. To discuss the details of Patriot deployments, Aaron spoke with Becca Wasser, a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation.
In crossover podcast with two scholars from FPRI's Eurasia program, Aaron spoke this week with Bob Hamilton, a Professor of Eurasian Studies at the US Army War College and a Black Sea fellow at FPRI and Nikolas Gvosdev, the Captain Jerome E. Levy Chair in Economic Geography and National Security at the U.S. Naval War College and a FPRI Eurasia Fellow, about the crisis in Idlib. The conversation focused on the Turkish--Russian conflict and Moscow's strategy to defeat the anti-Assad opposition and the potential implications for the United States and Europe.
Read "Idlib: The Most Dangerous Place on Earth" here: https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/03/idlib-the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth/
In this episode, Aaron speaks with Clint Watts, a distinguished research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, about Russian and Iranian disinformation efforts surrounding the 2020 election. The episode touched on many of the articles published on the Foreign Influence Election 2020 (FIE 2020) project, which analyzes Russian and Iranian propaganda.
The Russian -- Turkish relationship is under strain, after events in Syria have challenged a series of ceasefire agreements the two sides signed to try and jointly manage the civil war. Do tensions in Syria signal an end of Turkish -- Russian cooperation, or is the relationship more complicated than a single crisis? To discuss this issue, Aaron spoke this week with Dimitar Bechev, a research fellow at the center for Eurasian and East European Studies and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Please note: The audio quality of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience.
The conflict in Libya has prompted more aggressive external intervention, beginning with the Russian decision to send mercenaries to give support to Khalifa Hiftar, the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the Turkish decision to send its own forces, along with Syrian rebels, to augment its preferred actor, the Government of National Accord (GNA). Amidst two summits, one in Moscow and the second in Berlin, Aaron speaks this week with Yousuf Eltagouri, a FPRI contributor who works on stabilization programming in the Middle East and North Africa at DT Global, about events in Libya and the role of external actors.
After tensions with Iran escalated, American military operations in Iraq have been curtailed over concerns about possible attacks on U.S. soldiers. To discuss the threat to the U.S. military, Aaron spoke with Ian Rice, a retired US Army Colonel with experience in Iraq about the role of Shia militias in the fight against Islamic State -- and the threat they may now pose for U.S. interest. In a second interview, Aaron also spoke FPRI's Dr. Mike Noonan to drill down into the legal authorities for the targeted killing and the authorities governing American military force in the country.
After a period of calm following the territorial defeat of the Islamic State, Iraq has faced unprecedented protests, aimed at unseating the current ruling class and expressing anger at corruption and poor economic management. To discuss the protests, Aaron spoke with Maya Gebeily, the Baghdad correspondent for Agence France Presse.
During the run-up to NATO's 70th anniversary summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Turkey would block consensus on the Graduated Response Plans for the Baltic States and Poland, along with the southern flank, unless the alliance recognized the YPG as a terror threat. Ankara eventually dropped this demand, but not before French President Emanuel Macron chastised Ankara for this approach and questioned Turkey's purchase of the Russian-made S400 missile system. To discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit, Aaron spoke this week with Rachel Ellehuus, a Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Be sure to check out the first part of this podcast on the EU perspective with Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and the former EU ambassador to Turkey and NATO.
Note: The audio quality of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience.
During the run-up to NATO's 70th anniversary summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Turkey would block consensus on the Graduated Response Plans for the Baltic States and Poland, along with the southern flank, unless the alliance recognized the YPG as a terror threat. Ankara eventually dropped this demand, but not before French President Emanuel Macron chastised Ankara for this approach and questioned Turkey's purchase of the Russian-made S400 missile system. To discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit, Aaron spoke this week with Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and the former EU ambassador to Turkey and Syria.
Please check out the second part of this show "The NATO Summit: The U.S. Perspective"
The Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria has upended the U.S. counter-ISIS mission and forced a hasty American withdrawal. To discuss the recent events, and what they mean for the U.S.--Turkish relationship, Aaron spoke with Nick Danforth, a senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
In response to Iranian provocations, the United States has sent forces back to the Middle East. To discuss the American deployments, and the defense of Saudi Arabia, Aaron speaks this week with Becca Wasser, a senior policy analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation.
Iran has been accused of firing cruise missiles and drones at oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, a close American partner, and the world's most important energy producer. The attack was the most audacious yet, in what has been a simmering indirect conflict between the Middle East's two largest powers. To discuss this situation, Aaron speaks with Dr. Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and an FPRI Senior Fellow.
Israelis head to the polls, again, on September 17th to decide the fate of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Likud Party, and his many challengers. To discuss the state of the race, Aaron speaks with Michael Koplow, the policy director at the Israel Policy Forum.
The Assad regime launched a major offensive to recapture Khan Sheykun, a formerly opposition held town, and is now threatening to expand the campaign and continue his march north. To discuss the current offensive, Aaron spoke with Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Research Fellow, Forum for Regional Thinking, where she focuses on Syria.
After Iran seized a British tanker in the Persian Gulf, the United Kingdom surged naval forces to escort tankers, and are now joining an on-going American effort to escort ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Michael Stephens, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, about the British policy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Related Materials:
- Whether It Likes It or Not, Europe Is Being Pulled Into America's Iran Policy:
http://bit.ly/2YAjgLM
Check out these episodes of the Middle East Brief for more on Iran:
- Iran’s Non-State Clients and Regional Strategy
http://bit.ly/2Wacz1O
- Sabotage in Fujairah: Iran and Escalation Dynamics in The Persian Gulf
http://bit.ly/2YB02AW
Last Thursday (July 25, 2019) was the 25th anniversary of the Washington Declaration, which ended the state of war between Israel and Jordan. The peace treaty that followed remains a key component of Middle Eastern security and underpins relations between Jerusalem and Amman. Dr. Josh Krasna, a FPRI senior fellow and adjunct assistant professor at the NYU Center for Global Affairs, discusses the state of Israeli-Jordanian relations, the future of the peace treaty, and the role of the Trump administration.
Amidst reports of a UAE drawdown from Yemen, Aaron speaks with Elizabeth Dickinson, the senior analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the International Crisis Group, about the conflict and what role the United States could play in helping to de-escalate and end the fighting.
On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Nada Bakos, an FPRI Senior Fellow and former CIA analyst, about her book, The Targeter, and what lessons can be learned from the effort to target Zarqawi and applied to dealing with Islamic State after the territorial defeat of the caliphate in Iraq and Syria.
Turkey's acquisition of a Russian made S-400 air defense system appears inevitable. To discuss the Russian side of this story, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a former Marine and PhD candidate at King's College, London. The conversation explores the state of the Russian defense industry, the structure of the S-400 deal with Turkey, and potential Turkish-Russian aerospace cooperation after the S-400 is delivered.
On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Ariane Tabatabai, an associate political scientist at RAND, to discuss Iran's relationship with various non-state actors in the Middle East, and how the Islamic Republic leverages these relationships to achieve foreign and military policy goals in the region.
Related Materials:
Iran Seeks to Cement Legitimacy of Shia Militias http://bit.ly/2WvmNcq
Triple-Axis: Iran's Relations with Russia and China https://amzn.to/2XcfVgY
Tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated in the Persian Gulf. On this week's Middle East Brief, Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor at the Naval Post Graduate School and FPRI Senior Fellow, joins the program to discuss the recent attack in Fujairah, U.S. policy towards Iran, and the potential for a U.S. - Iranian clash.
Related Materials by Afshon Ostovar:
"Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards" https://amzn.to/2LPtYYR
"Iran, its clients, and the future of the Middle East: the limits of religion"
http://bit.ly/2W5FPG1
"The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War"
http://bit.ly/2WOnNVI
What is happening in Libya? Who are the key actors, which countries back which militias, and how has the Trump administration handled the recent surge in violence in Libya's capital city? On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Libya watcher and FPRI contributor Yousuf Eltagouri about the latest in the civil war.
Read More:
Haftar’s Final Play: Operation Flood of Dignity and the Fight for Tripoli : http://bit.ly/2Galcyw
Trump’s Embrace of Haftar Will Reignite Libya’s Proxy War: http://bit.ly/2GEWNT8
What is the future of northeastern Syria? After two days of talks in Erbil, Michael Stephens, a Research Fellow for Middle East studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London, sits down with Aaron to talk about Syria’s northeast, the future of the Kurdish movement, the role of Turkey, and great power politics.
Turkish voters went to the polls on 31 March, casting votes for local elected leaders. The outcome in Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey's two largest cities, have rocked Turkish politics, and galvanized the political opposition to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP). To discuss the election, Aaron speaks with Selim Koru, an analyst at TEPAV, a Turkish think tank in Ankara.
Related Links:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/opinion/turkey-erdogan-election-defeat.html
https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/11/the-resiliency-of-turkey-russia-relations/
The United States and Turkey remain at odds over Ankara's purchase of a Russian S-400 air and missile defense system. The time to resolve American and Turkish concerns about this issue is running out, and the stakes for diplomatic failure will have repercussions for the bilateral relationship, the Russian role in the region, and could impact NATO. In this week's episode, Aaron discusses the S-400 issue, potential American sanctions, and the potential denial of the F-35 to the Turkish Air Force.
Related links:
1. The Russian Missile That Could End The U.S.-Turkish Alliance: http://bit.ly/2UJxVhK
2. Turkey risks US ire over Russia air defence deal: https://on.ft.com/2Y9MT2y
3. 'Not serious': Turkey dismisses US pressure on Patriot missile deal as deadline looms:
http://bit.ly/2Fr0SK6
4. U.S. may soon pause preparations for delivering F-35s to Turkey: https://reut.rs/2UPIhN8
With all eyes on Baghuz and the final battle against Islamic State in Syria, the Middle East Brief podcast spoke with Robert Fox Fellow Rasha al Aqeedi to hear the latest from Iraq, which declared victory over ISIS in December 2017. The conversation touched on the nascent ISIS insurgency, the state of reconstruction in Mosul, and the many enduring challenges the Iraqi government now faces.
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