Chain Reaction

Georgia On My Mind: Election Takeaways Oct 31, 2024

This week on The Continent: FPRI's Eurasia Program Director Maia Otarashvili joins Aaron to talk through recent parliamentary election results in Georgia and delve into an interesting question: how does a broadly pro-EU, Russia-skeptical country wind up with a euroskeptic, Russia-friendly government?

What a Harris or Trump Presidency Could Mean for the Baltic States Oct 28, 2024

This week on Baltic Ways - The US election is approaching quickly with implications for America's allies in the world. Professors Margarita Šešelgyte (Vilnius University), Daunis Auers (University of Latvia), and Andres Kasekamp (University of Toronto) join a roundtable discussion on the impact that a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency could have on the security and future outlook of the Baltic countries and broader European, and how people in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are feeling about the state of democracy in the US. This episode was recorded on September 25, 2024.
Explore more from FPRI's Baltic Intiative.
Baltic Ways is a podcast brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.

Kharkiv: A Ukrainian City Perseveres Oct 21, 2024

Located only 30 km from the border with Russia, the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv was the object of another Russian offensive earlier this year. Although Ukrainian forces stopped Russia's drive to capture the city, Kharkiv still endures daily attacks from Russian glide bombs, drones and missiles. Although Ukraine has the capability to strike back at the aircraft and airfields supporting these attacks, it lacks permission to use Western weapons to do so. Join Bob Hamilton as he interviews Kharkiv resident and FPRI Senior Fellow Maria Avdeeva about how her city is enduring these daily attacks and how Ukraine would strike back if given permission.
Read Maria's recent analysis on why Ukraine should be allowed to strike back here.

Kyiv Dispatch Redux Oct 04, 2024

Kyiv-based journalist Fabrice Deprez returns to the brief for another update on the mood in Ukraine, including a report on his recent trip to the front line city of Pokrovsk.
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For more reporting from Ukraine, be sure to check out Fabrice’s Eastern Radar newsletter.

Russia's Wagner Group - Where Are They Now? Sep 27, 2024

It has been 15 months since the Wagner Group's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin led the group's ill-fated march on Moscow and 13 months since Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash almost certainly orchestrated by the Kremlin. Prigozhin is gone but his group lives on. Join host Bob Hamilton as he discusses the group's current operations in Africa and elsewhere with Colin Clarke, Chris Faulkner, and Raphael Parens.

The Price of Peace: NATO and the Burden-sharing Debate Sep 25, 2024

There has been much debate over defense spending, investment, and who is sharing the burden of European defense among NATO allies for years. Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has served as a grim and stark reminder of European defense investment shortcomings and vulnerabilities.It has been a few months since NATO allies met in Washington to commemorate the alliance’s 75th anniversary. In this episode we are joined by Ambassador Doug Lute, Colonel Jordan Becker, and German defense expert Aylin Matle to examine the contours of the burden-sharing debate within the alliance, what major decisions came out of the Washington summit, and what lies ahead.
The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond is a five part series examining the past, present, and future of NATO.
For access to the full interviews and more, subscribe to our newsletter.
Related Reading: The Time For Europe to Step Up Is Now - War on the Rock

Going Global in Newport Sep 20, 2024

The 15th Newport Global Summit took place on August 14-15, bringing together dozens of leaders from the business and finance worlds, including Steve Forbes, Mark Bezos, and former World Bank President David Malpass. The brainchild of Newport's Katherine (Kitty) Cushing, the Summit strives for "a convergence of legacy, knowledge, and purpose." This year, for the first time, FPRI's Nick Gvosdev, Maia Otarashvili, and Bob Hamilton took part, leading a conversation on the economic, political, and security impacts of the Middle Corridor, a developing transportation network linking the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific basins, the two main engines of the global economy. This edition of Chain Reaction was recorded in Newport immediately after the Summit concluded.

What's Eating East Germany? Sep 12, 2024

In the wake of far right gains in recent German state-level elections, German historian and journalist Katja Hoyer joins Aaron to explore the unique regional character of German populism. How has formerly communist Eastern Germany swung to the right?

LGBTQ+ Rights in the Baltic Region Aug 12, 2024

Aro Velmet is an associate professor of history at the University of Southern California, where he is a historian of modern Europe, colonialism, science, technology, and medicine with an overarching interest in gender studies. For Baltic Ways, he shares insights into the progression of LGBTQ+ rights in Estonia and the broader region and the path that has led to legislative change over the past decade.
Mentioned in this episode:
Velmet, A. (2019). Sovereignty after Gender Trouble: Language, Reproduction, and Supranationalism in Estonia, 1980–2017. Journal of the History of Ideas 80(3), 455-478.
Põldsam, Rebeka, et al. Kalevi Alt Välja: LGBT+ Inimeste Lugusid 19. Ja 20. Sajandi Eestist. Eesti LGBT Ühing : Rahva Raamat, 2023.

Elisarion: Elisàr von Kupffer and Jaanus Samma at the Kumu Art Museum in Tallinn Irina Roldugina, UCIS Postdoctoral Fellow, History, Slavic Languages and Literature
Baltic Ways is a podcast brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies (AABS), produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.

An Axis of Authoritarians? Jul 24, 2024

From Ukraine, to the Middle East, to the Indo-Pacific, American officials claim to see an increasing level of policy coordination among China, Russia, and Iran. In this view, the three authoritarian powers work to support each other and challenge the US. In the worst case, their cooperation could take the form of a combined military challenge to the US in multiple theaters. But what level of coordination actually exists among China, Russia, and Iran, and what are the implications for the US? FPRI Senior Fellow Nick Gvosdev joins Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction to discuss these questions.

The Linchpin: What is NATO? Jul 08, 2024

In this episode we go back to the beginning. What is NATO? What challenges has NATO faced in the past? How are these similar or different to today’s issues? Why is NATO important for US national security? Why should Americans care about the security of Europe? Former NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, and Seth Johnston join Rick to explain NATO’s history, its purpose, and its evolution over the past seven decades.
The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond is a five part series examining the past, present, and future of NATO.
For access to the full interviews and more, subscribe to our newsletter.

Yug Gotta Be Kidding Me: Russia and the Global South Jun 28, 2024

Why has the Global South, historically on the receiving end of colonialism and imperialism, maintained what might be called a neutral stance towards Russia's war against Ukraine? Ivan Grek, Director of the Russia Program at George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to discuss.
For more from the Bear Market Brief newsletter, subscribe here.

High Stakes: What is NATO’s Role in the War in Ukraine? Jun 26, 2024

Introducing a new limited series: The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond
Maintaining political cohesion on the issue of continuing the flow of Western military aid to Ukraine is a pressing concern for NATO and will be at the top of the agenda when the heads of state and government of the 32 allies meet in Washington, DC from July 9th to 11th. While support for Ukraine will likely remain stable in the short-term, what lies ahead is less certain.
What is NATO’s role in the war in Ukraine? Why is Russia against Ukraine in NATO? Why does NATO want to expand to Ukraine? Why does Ukraine want to join NATO? To answer these questions, and more, host Rick Landgraf speaks with Dominik Jankowski, John Deni, and Lisa Aronsson.
For access to the full interviews and more, subscribe to our newsletter.

Ukraine: Where Are We Now, and What's At Stake Jun 18, 2024

As US assistance to Ukraine resumes after a long delay, Russian forces are making gains in northeastern Ukraine, and may be poised to expand their offensive push this summer. Will the resumption of US aid allow Ukraine to blunt this offensive, what is the likely trajectory of the war, and what does it mean to the US? To discuss these questions, retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former Commander of US Army forces in Europe, joins Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction.

Dead, but not Forgotten: Commemoration in Medieval Livonia Jun 13, 2024

What did commemoration of the dead look like in Medieval Livonia and how did memoria shape group identities in the region? Dr. Gustavs Strenga shares insights into his research and parallels with modern-day memory wars.
Baltic Ways is a podcast brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.
Explore more from the Baltic Intiative here.

Kyrgyzstan Sinks Into Authoritarianism May 30, 2024

In the early 1990s, Kyrgyzstan was often referred to as an “island of democracy” in Central Asia. Three distinguishing features of Kyrgyzstan include an active political opposition, a vibrant civil society, and independent media outlets.The current government is eliminating all three of those distinctions.
On this episode of Report in Short, Aaron Schwartzbaum is joined by Bruce Pannier, a longtime journalist at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and author FPRI’s new report "Kyrgyzstan: Central Asia's Island of Democracy Sinks Into Authoritarianism" to discuss how the country reversed course to join the club of authoritarian governments in the region.
More from FPRI's Central Asia Intiative

The F-Word: Is Russia Fascist? May 24, 2024

Russia has taken an increasingly authoritarian turn over the last decade, but is its political system fascist? Marlene Laruelle and Julian Waller join to discuss the blurry lines between politics, ideology, and terminology.
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The Death Of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi May 22, 2024

The death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi this past weekend has prompted questions about the future of the Islamic Republic, the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in Iranian domestic politics, and succession race for Supreme Leader Khamenei. Afshon Ostovar, a FPRI Senior Fellow, joined FPRI President Aaron Stein to discuss the latest developments in Iran.

Russia Launches New Offensive in Ukraine May 15, 2024

Russia launched a new offensive near Kharkiv, amidst continuing questions about Ukraine’s ability to mobilize enough manpower to blunt Russian advantages. FPRI President Aaron Stein sat down with Senior Fellow Rob Lee to discuss the latest from the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Georgian Dream or Russian Nightmare? May 10, 2024

For weeks tens of thousands of Georgians have taken to the streets of Tbilisi and other cities to protest their government's attempt to pass a so called "foreign agents" law, which they claim is intended to neutralize civil society and destroy independent media. To discuss the implications of these events for Georgia and the West, Ian Kelly, who served as US Ambassador to Georgia from 2015-2018, joins host Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction.
This episode was recorded on May 7, 2024.
Related Reading:

Government vs. the People in Georgia

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The Baltic States Mark Two Decades of NATO Membership May 07, 2024

This year, NATO marks its 75th anniversary, while the Baltic countries celebrate 20 years as members of the alliance. Dr. Lukas Milevski speaks about the history of that inclusion, and shares his thoughts about the future. Milevski is a tenured assistant professor at Leiden University, where he teaches strategic studies in the BA International Studies and MA International Relations programs. He has published widely on strategy, including two books with Oxford University Press: The Evolution of Modern Grand Strategic Thought (2016) and The West’s East: Contemporary Baltic Defense in Strategic Perspective (2018).
For more from the world of Baltic studies visit us on Substack.
Baltic Ways is a podcast brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.

No Nukes is Good Nukes Apr 18, 2024

The Bear Market Brief goes nuclear! Andrey Baklitskiy dropped by to discuss all of Russia's strategic red lines, what the introduction of hypersonic weapons means for global security, and more.
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Russian Women in the Face of War Against Ukraine Apr 11, 2024

Russia’s war against Ukraine has revealed stories about the heroic resistance efforts of Ukrainian women: from a grandmother launching a pickle jar against a drone to volunteers with territorial defense units. However, comparable stories have been entirely lacking on Russia’s side: How come?
On this episode of Report in Short, Aaron Schwartzbaum is joined by Egle E. Murauskaite, author FPRI's new report "Russian Women in the Face of War Against Ukraine," to discuss the multifaceted role of Russian women in the conflict.
Read the report here

Women's Work: History of Women in Academia at the University of Tartu Apr 05, 2024

In this episode of Baltic Ways Dr. Janet Laidla shares her work on charting the roles and contributions of women at the University of Tartu from the early days of the Estonian Republic, and what it means today.
Explore from FPRI's Baltic Intiative here.

Russia's Election: It Ain't Vova 'till it's Vova Mar 15, 2024

If we know how Russia's presidential election is going to turn out... why even bother holding the election? Join András Tóth-Czifra and Olga Khvostunova for an exploration of electoral autocracy and the political moment.
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Russia's Invasion Through Ukrainian Eyes Mar 14, 2024

Amid the commentary on the war in Ukraine, the voices of those who live it every day are sometimes lost. In this episode of Chain Reaction, we hear from Sophia Opatska of Lviv, Hanna Shelest of Odessa, and Maksym Skrypchenko of Kyiv.

Has Russia Won the Sanctions War? Feb 28, 2024

Despite Western economic policy, Russia has been able to continue its war against Ukraine, and even seen economic growth. Join as we kick off our season with Nick Trickett and Iikka Korhonen investigating what's driving Russia's economy these days, and whether sanctions are "working."

Dark Days Ahead in Ukraine? Feb 20, 2024

As the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, the optimism that reigned a year ago has largely faded. The failure of Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive and the uncertainty of future US assistance seem to augur tough times ahead for Ukraine and its supporters. Joining host Bob Hamilton to discuss the current state of the war, its likely future trajectory, and the future of the US role in NATO is Stephen Biddle, one of the foremost analysts of modern warfare.

Report in Short: A "Frozen Conflict" Boils Over Feb 08, 2024

On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijani forces initiated a massive attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-populated and effectively self-governing region inside internationally recognized Azerbaijani territory. Within 24 hours, the Nagorno-Karabakh leadership gave in, and, for the first time, Baku could claim full control over the contested territory. Despite being portrayed in the West as a “frozen conflict,” there had long been a risk of renewed violence in Nagorno-Karabakh. In this episode of Report in Short, Walter Landgraf and Nareg Seferian join Aaron Schwartzbaum to discuss their recent report "A 'Frozen Conflict' Boils Over: Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and Future Implications.
Read the report

Out of the Shadows and Into the Sun: The (Re)-Emergence of Central Asia Jan 25, 2024

From the "Great Game" of the 19th century to the NATO war in Afghanistan, Central Asia has periodically been at the center of geopolitics. But more often, it has faded into the geopolitical shadows, as other regions and other issues take precedence. The two years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine have seen the region again become a focal point of great power interaction, with Russia's influence falling as that of China, Turkey, and other powers rises. But Central Asia is more than just a playground for great powers - the countries of the region are increasingly asserting their own geopolitical identities and interests. Join host Bob Hamilton and experienced Central Asia hand Bruce Pannier as they discuss the region's re-emergence and its implications.

Report In Short: Russian Military Drones Jan 09, 2024

Since 2009, Russia has invested significant effort into developing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, for military purposes. However, after a year of war in Ukraine, the Russian military has lost the biggest part of its tactical reconnaissance and targeting UAVs. Pavel Luzin joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to discuss his latest report "Russian Military Drones: The Past, Present, and Future of the UAV Industry."
Download the report here.

Why Do Autocrats Make Mistakes? Dec 08, 2023

Almost two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Bear Market Brief investigates how we got here in the first place. What does theory say about Vladimir Putin’s decision making? Seva Gunitsky joins to discuss.
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Wagner Group: Where Are They Now? Nov 29, 2023

It’s been just over five months since the Wagner Group’s insurrection against the Russian government, and three months since the group’s leader was killed in a place crash, almost certainly orchestrated by the Kremlin. But the Wagner Group has not faded away. Colin Clarke, *Christopher Faulkner, and Raphael Parens join to discuss what the Wagner Group is up to now, who is leading it, and how the Kremlin will use it going forward.
*The views expressed here are the guest's own and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of the US Naval War College, the Navy, or the DOD.

KZ Right Now: Kazakhstan's Politics in a Changing Global Order Nov 10, 2023

The Continent takes a (slight) detour to learn how trends over in Eurasia compare with what we're seeing in Europe. The complicated neighbor is the same; what about the domestic and geopolitical landscape? Temur Umarov offers insights on the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Kazakhstan's domestic and foreign policy.

Watching Russia Nov 02, 2023

Where does Russian public sentiment on politics and war stand these days? And on a more basic level, how is it measured? Bear Market Brief talked with Isabelle DeSisto of Russia Watcher to learn more!
Join the Bear Market Brief on Substack!
Learn more about Russia Watcher here

Economic War: Ukraine and the Conflict Between Russia and the West Oct 12, 2023

On this week's special episode of the Bear Market Brief, Aaron Schwartzbaum sits down with FPRI Fellow Maximilian Hess to talk about his new book "Economic War: Ukraine and the Global Conflict Between Russia and the West" (Hurst, 2023).
This episode was recorded live on September 28, 2023.
For more on the international economic order and the conflicts shaping it, check out Max's newsletter, Conflict & Credit.

Reflections on a Life in Special Operations, Intelligence, and Strategy: A Conversation with Dr. Michael Vickers Oct 05, 2023

In a career spanning from the height of the Cold War to the fight against Al Qaida, Michael Vickers worked at every level of the US national security community. From his time as an Army Green Beret trained to parachute behind Soviet lines in Europe with a “backpack” nuclear weapon, to his final assignment as the senior official responsible for all Department of Defense intelligence activities, few people have accumulated as much experience. Join host Bob Hamilton as he talks with Dr. Vickers about his career and the lessons he draws for today’s national security practitioners.
By All Means: Memoirs of a Life in Intelligence, Special Operations, and Strategy by Michael G. Vickers

Kyiv Dispatch: How are Ukraine's Politics and Society Changing as the War Continues? Sep 30, 2023

Politically and socially, how are Ukrainians contending with a difficult, long war? Fabrice Deprez joins from Kyiv to give us an update on this week's Bear Market Brief.
Check out Fabrice's newsletter, Eastern Radar
Subscribe to the Bear Market Brief

Apocalypse Chisinau: Identity Politics in Moldova Sep 21, 2023

How much do Moldovan politics rhyme with some of what we've seen in Ukraine? FPRI Senior Fellow Ecaterina Locoman sheds light on language politics, Ukraine war spillover, and frozen conflict.

Dark Heritage: Exploring Memory Building in Estonia Sep 13, 2023

How do we remember tragedies? How do populations construct memories and memory institutions around these events? How can contemporary researchers begin to make sense of these complex landscapes? On this episode of Baltic Ways, Dr. Margaret Comer of University College London joins us to discuss heritage studies, dark heritage, and her fieldwork in Russia and Estonia.

Black Sea Security: The View from Bucharest Sep 05, 2023

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 put the Black Sea region on the map in Washington, DC and Brussels after decades of relative neglect. Among regional countries Romania was an early, vocal and persistent proponent of greater US and NATO focus on the region and has emerged as a leader in the drive for greater regional integration and cooperation. To discuss Bucharest’s role in the region and its vision for regional security, Dr. Antonia Colibasanu joins host Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction.

Two Years After the Fall of Afghanistan – What Have We Learned? Aug 23, 2023

Two years ago this month, Taliban forces rolled into Kabul, completing their takeover of Afghanistan. After 20 years of U.S.-led effort and investment in the Afghan government and security forces, they collapsed almost instantly in the face of an enemy with less training and rudimentary equipment. To understand the sources of this strategic failure, Dr. Carter Malkasian, one of the foremost experts on the war in Afghanistan, joins host Bob Hamilton on this episode of Chain Reaction.

Lessons of Ukraine for the US Army Aug 10, 2023

Clausewitz wrote that the first task of a commander is to establish “the kind of war on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to its nature.” After two decades of counterinsurgency operations, the US Army now finds itself observing – and supporting – Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s aggression. The war has turned into a grinding, attritional, industrial age struggle, the kind the US military had assumed was a thing of the past. In this episode of Chain Reaction, John Nagl joins to discuss whether the US Army is positioned to fight this kind of war, whether it wants to or not.
Related Reading:
A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force - Katie Crombe and John A. Nagl

Defense 101: Military Basics and the War in Ukraine Jul 31, 2023

Robert Hamilton and Rick Landgraf join Aaron to tackle (almost) every question you were too embarrassed to ask about the defense and security issues central to Ukraine. Term by term, concept by concept, jargon by jargon. No acronym is safe!

Latvian-Lithuanian Connections from Morta to Modernity Jul 26, 2023

How have Latvian and Lithuanian histories intertwined over the last millennium? Who was Queen Morta, a Latvian princess by birth who became the wife of Lithuania’s first and only king, Mindaugas? How close did we come to a Latvian-Lithuanian state in the early 20th century? How do Latvians and Lithuanians see their shared commonalities today? James Montgomery Baxenfield, Junior Research Fellow at Tallinn University School of Humanities, walks (literally) through this complex history.
Baltic Ways is brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

How Do Wars End? Jul 20, 2023

Have you heard calls for Ukraine and Russia to "just negotiate"? What does theory say about how (and why) wars come to an end? Christine Cheng joins to discuss.

Changing Tides in the Black Sea Region Jul 05, 2023

The Black Sea region looms increasingly large as the locus of of great power, military, political, and economic competition. FPRI’s Eurasia Program partnered with Ilia State University in Tbilisi, Georgia, to hold a two day conference on Black Sea geopolitics, security, strategic connectivity, and resilience.
In this episode, Head of Eurasia Research, Robert Hamilton, is joined by Director of the Eurasia Program, Maia Otarashvili, and Eurasia Fellows Aaron Schwartzbaum, Max Hess, Nikolas Gvosdev, Batu Kutelia, and Dato Sikharulidze to discuss key takeaways from the conference.

Powderkeg Party: Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia & Herzegovina Jun 27, 2023

On this special double feature, The Continent visits the Balkans. How do we make sense of continued nationalism, the conflict it spurs, and Russia's regional influence? Mladen Mrdalj and Jasmin Munjanovic join to discuss.
Related Reading: Hunger and Fury: The Crisis of Democracy in the Balkans

Fight or Flight: Resistance in Russia Jun 20, 2023

If you're a Russian against the war in Ukraine, what options do you have? And how has resistance evolved as the war has continued? Colleen Woods joins the Bear Market Brief.
Related Reading: Is Russia’s anti-war movement changing people’s minds? by Colleen Woods

The War as an Accelerator Jun 13, 2023

How has Russia's (latest) invasion of Ukraine exacerbated issues in domestic governance and political economy?
András Tóth-Czifra joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to discuss his latest report "The War as an Accelerator: How Russia's War Against Ukraine Showcased and Exacerbated Domestic Governance Challenges."

The School of Democracy in Interwar Estonia Jun 06, 2023

How did Estonian democracy erode in the 1930s? How did liberal dissidents express their discontent under a more oppressive regime? Why is political rhetoric important, both now and then? Dr. Liisi Veski, fellow at the Skytte Institute, University of Tartu, dives into this complex, informative world of letters.
Baltic Ways is brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Ukraine and US National Security Policy May 31, 2023

US assistance has been a key factor in Ukraine's ability to not only survive Russia's invasion but turn the tide in some places. But could the US have done more, and done it sooner? Some in Ukraine and in the West have critiqued the US effort as incremental and risk-averse. Is this a fair critique, and if so, is this type of policy a feature or a bug of the US policy process? FPRI's Nikolas Gvosdev and Philip Wasielewski join host Robert Hamilton to discuss.

The Fast and the Pistorius May 18, 2023

Germany announced bold remilitarization plans after Russia's latest invasion of Ukraine. A year later, where do we stand? Minna Alander returns to The Continent to discuss progress made, and the challenges ahead.

Dark Sarcasm in the Classroom May 11, 2023

Patriotic education in Russia: how does it work? Is this any different from in the West? And among Russia's young people, are we seeing generational differences as far as political attitudes go? Allyson Edwards joins Aaron Schwartzbaum on the Bear Market Brief. Dark Sarcasm in the Classroom

The Wagner Group's Expanding Global Footprint May 04, 2023

Introducing Report in Short, a bite-sized series where we explore the latest in FPRI's research in 15 minutes or less.
This week: What is Wagner Group, how does the Kremlin use it, and how has its role and regional footprint changed? Raphael Parens and Chrisopher Faulkner join Aaron Schwartzbaum to discuss their latest report.
Read the full report here.

Turkey to Victory Apr 28, 2023

As we return to The Continent, what is the latest on Turkey's upcoming election? Who is running, what is driving Turks to vote, and what does the result mean for Ukraine and beyond? FPRI's Director of Research Jim Ryan and Black Sea Fellow Selim Koru join to discuss.

The Struggle Israel Apr 13, 2023

We take a jaunt south to explore the people and politics behind Israel's Ukraine policy. What do Israel's leaders want from this war, and how do more locational considerations fit in? What does the local population with roots in the former Soviet Union make of all this?
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Don't Mention the War Apr 05, 2023

How do you make sense of Russia's seemingly contradictory narrative about its invasion of Ukraine? And how is support, or at least assent, for the war generated? Jade McGlynn joins to discuss.
Learn more about Jade's new book Russia's War
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Torn in the USA Mar 23, 2023

How important is the war in Ukraine for the United States? What should Washington do about it? Stephen Wertheim drops by to share some options for your consideration.
Learn more about Stephen's book Tomorrow, the World
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The Helpers Mar 02, 2023

What motivates people who, when Russian invaded, decided to run towards the fire and assist Ukrainians? British Expeditionary Aid and Rescue, an aid organization, joins to share its experience.
BEAR's Website: https://www.britishexpeditionaryaidrescue.org/
Donation Link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/british-expeditionary-aid-rescue-ukraine

Reflecting on a Year of War Feb 23, 2023

On the anniversary of Russia's invasion, Maria Romanenko shares her experience fleeing Ukraine and reflects on what the war means, both personally and broadly.
Link: Fundraiser for building a museum in the village of Yahidne to showcase Russia’s war crimes there.

Stop, Hey, What Stat's Sound? Feb 13, 2023

What do the statistics and other indicators coming out of Russia these days actually mean, and which ones should we actually be paying attention to? Chris Miller and Andras Toth-Czifra stop by to discuss.
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Will Russia Survive Until 2084? Feb 02, 2023

Faced with a possible defeat in Ukraine, will Russia survive until 2084? FPRI Senior Fellow Philip Wasielewski and Maia Otarashvili, the Deputy Director of FPRI's Eurasia program discuss the future of Russia, from internal ethnic and leadership struggles to its sphere of influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus as Chinese and Turkish power rises in the region.
Read Philip Wasielewski's report "Will Russia Survive Until 2084?"
This episode was recorded live on Zoom on January 31, 2023.

Mobilize This Jan 19, 2023

How is Russia's economy doing as we start 2023? And how is mobilization going - if it is even possible? Nick Trickett joins to discuss.
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War in Ukraine: A Firsthand Account Dec 09, 2022

What has the war actually been like on the ground? How have communities, and the Ukrainian government reacted? Kirill, a Kyiv resident and open source conflict researcher, joins to share his experience.
Support Vostok SOS: https://vostok-sos.org/en/i-wanna-help/rekvizyty-dlia-hroshovoho-perekazu/

We Can France if We Want To: What Does Paris Want for Ukraine and Europe? Nov 30, 2022

As we drop by Paris, what is president Macron's angle, diplomatically or otherwise, in the Ukraine War? And how do populists on both the right and left play in?
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on November 23, 2022.

Public Opinion in Russia: What Do We Know, What Can We Know? Nov 09, 2022

What do Russians actually think about the war in Ukraine? How are sanctions being felt locally? And what can we learn - or not - from polls conducted in Russia's current political climate.

Giorgia on My Mind: Italy's Rightward Turn and Its Implications Oct 24, 2022

What spurred Italy's right wing populist wave? And what does it mean for EU policy? Federico Santi joins Aaron to discuss.
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on October 20, 2022.

Stuck in the Magyar: Why is Hungary the "Bad Boy" of Europe? Oct 05, 2022

How did Hungary stray from the liberal democratic path? What does that mean in practice? And what explains its contrarian position on Russia within the EU? Andras Toth-Czifra and Marta Pardavi join Aaron to discuss all things Hungary.
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on October 3, 2022.
Related reading: https://orban.media/

Russia's War in Ukraine: The Strategic Picture Sep 28, 2022

In this Bear Market Brief crossover episode, FPRI Templeton Fellow Phil Wasielewski joins host Aaron Schwartzbaum to provide an update on the war and take a step back. What is the broader strategic picture and what does it mean for Putin and Russia?

Bloc Party: The EU and the War in Ukraine Sep 15, 2022

We've looked how the war in Ukraine has impacted politics in several countries, but what about the EU as a whole? Charles Lichfield joins to discuss.
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on September 14, 2022.

What does Erdogan Erdo-want? Jul 19, 2022

What exactly motivates Turkey's mercurial leader? On this episode, Sibel Oktay joins to discuss what's on Erdogan's mind these days and his angle on Ukraine, NATO, and more.

Baltic Power Hour Jul 06, 2022

Join us as we cover all three Baltic States in (about) one hour. Guests Dr. Indra Ekmanis and Martynas Smitas share their views and some nuances on the current political and security juncture, as well as where the local Russian minority fits into all this.
The conversation with Indra Ekmanis was recorded on June 28 and July 3, 2022, and the conversation with Martynas Smitas was recorded on July 1, 2022.

No More Niinistö Nice Guy: Has Finland's Security Calculus Changed? Jun 23, 2022

Finland has a long border and similarly long history with Russia. How does the war in Ukraine change its defense and security picture? This week Aaron Schwartzbaum and Minna Alander discuss Finland's security calculus.
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on June 21, 2022.

Swedening the Deal: Stockholm Turns to NATO Jun 09, 2022

Why and how did Sweden abandon centuries of neutrality, and where does it fit in the European security picture? This week Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with Oscar Jonsson about Sweden's NATO ambitions and the country's current political crisis.

Sweden's Troubles with Turkey Jun 03, 2022

After abandoning a policy of neutrality, Sweden was expected to rapidly join NATO in time for the June 28 summit in Madrid. Instead, Turkey, a NATO member since 1952, has blocked Sweden's accession, demanding a series of concessions ranging from support for Turkish counter terror operations to extraditing Swedish citizens of Kurdish origin. To discuss this issue, Aaron is joined by Dr. Paul Levin, the Director of Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies.

The Sejm Difference? Poland and the New, Old Europe May 26, 2022

How has the war in Ukraine changed Poland's politics, security, and even society? And what about Warsaw's relationship with Brussels?
This week Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with Anna Wojcik and Wojciech Przybylski about Poland's past, present, and future in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on May 25, 2022.

The State of Play in Ukraine May 13, 2022

The Russian invasion in Ukraine has bogged down, forcing President Vladimir Putin to wrestle with a series of questions about how to continue the invasion. The United States and its European Allies have pledged open-ended military support for Ukraine, allowing President Zelensky to replace equipment, and retain critical capabilities to defend the country. To discuss the latest developments in the war, Rob Lee, FPRI Senior Fellow, and Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA, join moderator Aaron Stein.
This discussion was recorded live on Zoom on May 12, 2022.

Bundes-where? Germany's Politics and Security in Changing Times May 12, 2022

The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) is pleased to introduce a special Chain Reaction podcast series: The Continent.
The Continent explores how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe's politics and security. Host Aaron Schwartzbaum will "visit" a country on each episode, learning about key dynamics and trends from local experts.
In the first episode Aaron speaks with Marcel Dirsus and Jana Puglierin about Germany's response to the war in Ukraine. Just how important is this political moment for Germany? What does it mean for Germany to boost its military potential — and how might it use it?
This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on May 11, 2022.

Russia's Manpower Conundrum in Ukraine May 06, 2022

Russia is facing a manpower shortage and has a series of hard political choices to make, as it seeks to continue its invasion of Ukraine. To discuss this issue, Aaron speaks this week with Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA about the war, Russian options to escalate, and Putin's May 9th speech.

Central American Migration: Traveling with the Caravan Apr 12, 2022

Since Trump’s infamous call for a border wall and vague, fear-mongering threats of a “caravan of migrants'', security along the US-Mexico border has become a topic of increasing interest for the average American. How much of a security concern does migration from South and Central America pose, if any, to the US? And how can the US address the root causes forcing this mass migration in a sustainable and non-destructive way?
Guest host Clint Watts will talk to Delphine Schrank, freelance journalist and former Reuters Latin American Chief Correspondent based in Mexico City. Delphine has traveled through Central America and Mexico with several migrant caravans. She and Clint will discuss the migrant experience traveling with a caravan and the root causes spurring these migrations.

The DoD Budget Drops Apr 04, 2022

The FY2023 Department of Defense budget has dropped and it is packed full of insights. To talk about the budget and what it means for the future of the Air Force and Navy, Aaron speaks with Valerie Insinna, the Air Force and Pentagon reporter for Breaking Defense.

Europe's Big Secret: Funding Offshore Migrant Prisons Mar 29, 2022

Before many African migrants even see Europe, they are captured and imprisoned in migrant detention camps in Libya. These detention centers, while run by Libyan militias, were funded and enabled to be run by the European Union.
In this episode, Clint speaks with Ian Urbina, director of the Outlaw Ocean Project, a nonprofit journalism initiative exploring lawlessness on the high seas, who recently published a piece in the New Yorker “The Secretive Prisons That Keep Migrants Out of Europe”. He uncovered human rights abuses taking place in migrant detention camps in Libya and the international systems enabling the continued operation of these prisons.

The Air War Over Ukraine Mar 25, 2022

The air war over Ukraine is now a month old. In this episode of Chain Reaction, Dr. Aaron Stein speaks with Dr. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council with new American engagement initiative, about the air war and the role defenses have played in frustrating Moscow's campaign.

How Technology is Helping (and Hurting) Migrants Mar 15, 2022

The Syrian Civil War led to likely the most prominent migration crisis in modern history. In 2015, the European Union was forced to reckon with a surge of millions of migrants fleeing devastation and danger in Syria.
Foreign Policy Research Institute Distinguished Fellow Clint Watts talks with Jessica Bither, senior expert on migration at the Bosch Foundation. Jessica’s expertise lies in the intersection of technology and migration and she has extensively studied European migration patterns. They will discuss the security implications of the 2015 migration crisis and how this affected current attitudes and policy towards migrants in the European Union.

Debating a No Fly Zone: The Risk of Escalation with Moscow Mar 09, 2022

In this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Mike "Pako" Benitez, a retiring active-duty officer with over 25 years of service in the U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Air Force, about the history of no fly zones, the challenges in setting one up, and the risk of inadvertent escalation. Mike wrote a recent article with Mike “Starbaby” Pietrucha about the topic and is the editor of the Merge newsletter.
Related reading:
The Dangerous Allure of the No Fly Zone - Mike Benitez & Mike Pietrucha - War on the Rocks

Examining Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Mar 04, 2022

After seven days of conflict, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made clear gains, but has also suffered from obvious deficiencies. In this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks again with Rob Lee, FPRI Senior Fellow, about the trajectory of the war, Russian challenges, and the future of the conflict.
This conversation was recorded on March 3, 2022.

Climate Change: What's In It For America? Mar 01, 2022

International measures to slow climate change have been too little and too late, and the consequences of global inaction increasingly affect daily life here in the US. Americans are already being forced to move due to climate related disaster.
In this episode, Clint talks to Jesse Keenan, Associate Professor of Real Estate at Tulane University in New Orleans. They discuss how climate change is specifically affecting the US and what Americans should - and should not - be worried about in the near future as the planet warms.

The Risk of War: Russia's Options for War in Ukraine Feb 18, 2022

In today's Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a FPRI Senior Fellow, and Michael Kofman, the Russia Studies Director at CNA, about the situation on the Ukrainian-Russian border and the risk of "spillage" beyond the border.
Related reading:
"Putin's Wager in Russia's Standoff with the West" - War on the Rocks
"Moscow's Compellence Strategy" - Foreign Policy Research Institute

Do I Stay Or Do I Go? Feb 15, 2022

Excessive heat. Heavier rains. Natural disasters are growing in number and severity. Devastation from climate change is already a reality across much of the world and is prompting those in the regions most vulnerable to warming temperatures to ask themselves the question: do I stay or do I go?
In this episode, Clint talks with Dr. Jola Ajibade, Assistant Professor of Geography at Portland State University about how different global communities are migrating or adapting to climate change.

The Risk of War in Ukraine: Moscow's Military Posture Feb 11, 2022

The Russian military build-up on the border with Ukraine is complete, raising the risk of an imminent invasion. To discuss the latest, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a FPRI senior fellow, about Moscow's force posture and potential military scenarios.

Russian Perceptions of Military AI and Automation Feb 09, 2022

On this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron spoke with Anna Nadibaidze about her new report "Russian Perceptions of Military AI, Automation, and Autonomy." The conversation touched on Russian views of Artificial Intelligence, autonomy, and the ethical use of these types of weapons.
The report is available for download on www.fpri.org

Climate Change Who Has it Worst? Feb 01, 2022

What does a warming planet mean for our national security? In this special segment, Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Distinguished Research Fellow Clint Watts talks to three experts on the impacts of climate change to US national security in a special Chain Reaction podcast series.
In late January, President Biden signed an executive order placing the climate crisis at the center of U.S. foreign policy and national security. Climate change is an unavoidable problem for everyone, but not every country will suffer the same ecological, social, political and military effects as our planet warms. Which places around the world will suffer the most traumatic consequences from extreme weather, rising seas and hotter temperatures?
FPRI Distinguished Research Fellow Clint Watts talks with John Conger, senior advisor to the Council on Strategic Risk and Senior U.S. Advisor to the International Military Council on Climate and Security to help answer these questions and provide an overview of the global threat of climate change and its implications on national security.

Tensions over Ukraine: Russia's Rationale for War Jan 12, 2022

On this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Michael Kofman, who serves as Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, about the latest developments in Ukraine. The discussion centered on Russia's potential use of force and why the Kremlin may conclude that the actual costs of an invasion are lower than is commonly assumed.

Russia's Anti-Satellite Weapon: Understanding Russia's ASAT Test Nov 19, 2021

On this episode, Aaron speaks with Dr. Laura Grego, Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy at MIT, about Russia's November 15 test of a ground-based anti-satellite weapon, the challenges of space debris, and potential options to limit such tests in the future.

Getting Force Design Right: Looking Ahead to the 2022 NDS Nov 03, 2021

On this week's show, Aaron speak with Becca Wasser, a fellow in the defense program and co-lead of the Gaming Lab at the Center for a New American Security, about her recent article for War on the Rocks about the next National Defense Strategy, integrated deterrence, and the issues Washington should be considering as it plans for strategic competition with peer competitors.

AUKUS: A Deep-Dive on U.S.-Australia Ties Oct 05, 2021

On this episode, Aaron speaks with Susannah Patton, a Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the United States Studies Centre, about the recent submarine agreement. For listeners, check out Susannah's latest report, Correcting the Course: How the Biden Administration can Compete for Influence in the Indo-Pacific.

How Do You Solve a Problem Like Navalny? Sep 23, 2021

This week we’d like to introduce a special episode recorded in collaboration with FPRI’s BMB Russia, a news brief that brings together the latest on Russia’s economy, politics, business, and political risk environment.
In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond.
This week, Jan Matti Dollbaum, Morvan Lallouet, Ben Noble, authors of the book "Navalny: Putin's Nemesis, Russia's Future?" and Eilish Hart, editor of BMB Ukraine, join to discuss all things Alexei Navalny.

Parliamentary, My Dear Watson Sep 10, 2021

This week we’d like to introduce a special episode recorded in collaboration with FPRI’s BMB Russia, a news brief that brings together the latest on Russia’s economy, politics, business, and political risk environment.
In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond.
This week, Felix Light stops by to discuss Russia's upcoming Duma elections, what they mean, who's involved, and what to expect.

Russia's Coercive Diplomacy: Looking Back at the Ukraine Crisis Aug 30, 2021

To discuss recent events in Ukraine, Aaron speaks this week with Rob Lee, a FPRI Eurasia Fellow, about his recent report, Russia's Coercive Diplomacy. The conversation explores Rob's research about Russia's military build up around Ukraine and what that could signal for Russian coercive signaling during Zapad 2021.

Tanker War 2.0: Iranian Strategy in the Gulf Aug 10, 2021

The Iranian government is accused of using a loitering munition to strike the tanker Mercer Street, killing two crew members. The attack is the latest incident at sea involving the Iranians and international shipping. To discuss Iranian strategy in the Persian Gulf, Aaron speaks with Afshon Ostovar, an Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, about escalation dynamics and Iranian strategy.

Defining the China Challenge: The Future of the U.S. Navy Jul 23, 2021

On this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Chris Dougherty, senior fellow for defense at CNAS and the co-lead of the CNAS gaming lab, about a recent article he wrote for War on the Rocks, Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy's Strategic Bankruptcy.

Mishustin Impossible Jun 29, 2021

In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond.
This week Aaron speaks with Fabian Burkhardt, a research fellow at the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, about Russian PM Mikhail Mishustin, his agenda, and what his role means for governance in Russia.

Biden's Visit to NATO Jun 21, 2021

President Biden just finished a three-country trip, where he met with world leaders in the United Kingdom, Belgium, and in Switzerland. The main focus of the trip was to reinvigorate U.S. alliances in Europe and with NATO. To discuss the trip, Aaron spoke this week with Rachel Ellehuus, the deputy director and a senior fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Wither Democracy? Jun 08, 2021

This week we’d like to introduce a special series recorded in collaboration with FPRI’s BMB Russia, a news brief that brings together the latest on Russia’s economy, politics, business, and political risk environment.
In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond.
This week Aaron is joined by Isabel Linzer, a research analyst on technology and democracy at Freedom House, and Nick Trickett, a specialist on Russia’s political economy and the author of the Russia section of Freedom Houses’ Nations in Transit report, to discuss the state of Russian democracy, as well as Russia’s electoral and internet freedom.

Finding Mobile Targets: Reviewing the War in Gaza Jun 02, 2021

On this episode, Aaron speaks with Mike Benitez, a U.S. military officer and creator of the Merge newsletter, about the challenges of finding mobile rocket launchers in an urban environment.
The views expressed in this episode do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

The Rise of Digital Repression May 14, 2021

This week, Aaron spoke with Steven Feldstein, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about his new book, The Rise of Digital Repression: How Technology is Reshaping Power, Politics, and Resistance (Oxford University Press, 2021).

Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West May 04, 2021

The relationship between the Russian Federation and Republic of Turkey is one of the most important bilateral relationships in Eurasia today. This week Aaron chats with Robert Hamilton and Anna Mikulska, authors of FPRI's latest report "Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West '' about the major drivers of the bilateral relationship and its likely future trajectory.
Read the report here: https://www.fpri.org/article/2021/04/cooperation-competition-and-compartmentalization-russian-turkish-relations-and-their-implications-for-the-west/
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Army War College, U.S. Army, or the Department of Defense.

Learning From Our Adversaries: Russian Aerial Operations in Syria Apr 15, 2021

In this episode, Aaron speaks with Mule about the lessons that the United States should from the Russian Aerospace Forces’ operations in Syria. Mule is preparing to deploy to Jordan to command an operational support squadron.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

Great Power Competition Explained Mar 25, 2021

On this week's episode, Dr. Thomas Lynch joins the show to discuss his latest book, Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition, which includes a series of essays about Great Power Competition and U.S. national security policy. The podcast discussed themes from the essays and U.S. policy under both President Trump and President Biden.
The book is available for free on the National Defense University Website.

Transactionalism with Turkey Mar 18, 2021

In this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Nicholas Danforth, a Non-Resident Senior Research Fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, about the current state of U.S.-Turkish relations during the Biden administration.

The Air War Against the Islamic State Feb 25, 2021

The air war against the Islamic State was critical to the territorial defeat of the group's territorial caliphate and a key enabler of American partner operation led ground combat. To discuss the air war, Aaron spoke this week with Stacie L. Pettyjohn, director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE, and Becca Wasser, a fellow in the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, about their recent multi-authored book, The Role of U.S. Airpower in Defeating ISIS.

The Middle East and America's Global Posture Feb 11, 2021

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has launched a global posture review, shortly after taking office. To discuss the process and the likely implications for U.S. posture in the Central Command area of operation, Aaron speaks this week with Becca Wasser, a Fellow at the Center for New American Security's Defense Program and Co-Lead, The Gaming Lab.

The Tip of the Spear: Special Operations Forces And Great Power Competition Jan 26, 2021

Great power competition is likely to outlast the Trump presidency. To discuss the Biden Administration’s national security priorities and the role that special forces are likely to play, Aaron speaks with Tim Ball, a special forces officer and a fellow in FPRI’s National Security Program.

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Reflection on Modern Warfare Oct 22, 2020

The war in Nagorno-Karabakh is a human tragedy, but also provides observers the opportunity to monitor modern conflict and think closely about lessons for Western militaries. To discuss the on-going conflict and what it may mean for future combat, Aaron speaks this week with Michael Kofman, Director of the Russia Studies Program at the CNA, Jack Watling, Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, and Rob Lee, a PhD candidate at King's College, London.
Related Reading:
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Two Weeks In - War on the Rocks
https://bit.ly/31xD9CE
The Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh Is Giving Us a Glimpse into the Future of War - RUSI https://bit.ly/35jJLFK

The Rise of the Machines: AI and the Future of Air Combat Sep 10, 2020

A few weeks ago, an AI algorithm beat a human pilot in a series of simulated dogfights, as part of the AlphaDogfight challenge to “demonstrate the feasibility of developing effective, intelligent autonomous agents capable of defeating adversary aircraft in a dogfight." The simulation touched off debate about the future of air combat. To discuss this, Aaron spoke this week with "Mule", an F-15E Weapons Systems Officer and Ryan "Stinger" Fishel, a F-15E pilot, about the simulation and the future of air combat.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

Ground Deconfliction with the Russians in Syria Sep 03, 2020

Events in Syria have brought American and Russian militaries into close contact. In recent weeks, a video emerged showing Russian helicopters flying low over an American patrol, and it was later revealed that US soldiers were injured when a Russian vehicle rammed an American vehicle. To discuss ground deconfliction, Aaron spoke this week with Bob Hamilton, FPRI Black Sea Fellow and a Professor of Eurasian Studies at the Army War College.
Stay tuned for the launch of FPRI’s upcoming book Russia’s War in Syria: Assessing Russian Military Capabilities and Lessons Learned on September 14th.

Israel and the United Arab Emirates: The Art of a Deal Aug 17, 2020

Israel and the United Arab Emirates agreed to begin negotiations to normalize relations, so long as Prime Minister Netanyahu suspends his plans to annex the West Bank. The move was widely welcomed as beneficial for regional stability, but also raised questions about whether it was sustainable. To discuss the agreement, Aaron spoke with Dr. Joshua Krasna, a senior fellow at FPRI and a professor at NYU's Center for Global Affairs.

The U.S. Air Force and Turkey's F-35 Aug 03, 2020

What is the latest with Turkey's F-35? To get the latest, Aaron speaks this week with Valerie Insinna, Air Warfare Reporter at Defense News, about the latest with Turkey and the F-35.

Mysterious Explosions in Iran Jul 06, 2020

In this cross-over podcast with Arms Control Wonk, Aaron speaks with Fabian Hinz, a frequent guest on the podcast, about the recent explosions in Iran and what open source intelligence has revealed about the two incidents.
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/

More Trouble in Libya: Egypt Raises the Stakes Jun 25, 2020

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has threatened to send armed forces across the border with Libya, following Turkey's successful ousting of Khalifa Haftar from territory his militia held in the western part of the country. The flashpoint is Sirte, where Turkish-backed forces are deployed and possibly preparing to assault, and which Sisi has pledged to defend. To discuss the Egyptian view of the conflict in Libya, Aaron speaks with Michael Hanna, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation in New York.

The Caesar Civilian Protection Act: The Debate over Sanctioning Syria Jun 16, 2020

The United States Treasury will soon announce the first round of sanctions associated with the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which is intended to punish the regime for its killing of civilians and aims to help broker dialogue to end the conflict. To discuss the sanctions, and whether they may do more harm than good, Aaron spoke with Basma Alloush, a policy and advocacy advisor at the Norweigan Refugee Council, and Alex Simon, the director of the Syria Program with Synaps. This podcast expands upon Basma and Alex's recent article on the same subject for War on the Rocks.
Read the article here: https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/will-more-syria-sanctions-hurt-the-very-civilians-they-aim-to-protect/

The Islamic State in Their Own Words May 29, 2020

In this week's episode, Aaron speaks with two of the three authors of The ISIS Reader: Milestone Texts of the Islamic State Movement, Haroro J. Ingram and Craig Whiteside. The discussion touched on the period after the killing of Zarqawi, but before the group's take over of Mosul. For interested listeners, Haroro and Craig spoke in more depth about other aspects of the book on the Modern War Institute Podcast and on FDD's Long War Journal Podcast.
Modern War Institute Podcast : https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-islamic-state-happened/
FDD's Long War Journal Podcast: https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/05/generation-jihad-ep-8-the-islamic-states-foundational-texts.php
Note: The audio quality of parts of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience.

A Financial Crisis in Lebanon May 18, 2020

Lebanon finds itself in a financial crisis, brought about by years of economic mismanagement and political dysfunction. The economic fall-out from a relatively good response to the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated these negative trends, raising questions about the trajectory and strength of on-going protests about social and economic inequality. To discuss the latest events in Lebanon, Aaron speaks this week with Joyce Karam, the Washington correspondent for the National.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis: A Deep Dive with Inna Rudolf Apr 22, 2020

This week, Aaron held a virtual discussion with Inna Rudolf, the author of "The Future of the Popular Mobilization Forces after the Assassination of Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis," the third chapter for FPRI's forthcoming edited volume, Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics*. The conversation focused on the Popular Mobilization Forces, the role of the now-deceased Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis within the organization, the Iranian influence over the PMF, and policy options to consider in the near future.
*The edited volume was made possible by a grant from GPD Charitable Trust.

The Sadrists: A Deep Dive with Ben and Renad Apr 15, 2020

This week, Aaron held a virtual discussion with Ben Robin-D'Cruz and Renad Mansour, the authors of "Making Sense of the Sadrists: Fragmentation and Unstable Politics," the first chapter for FPRI's forthcoming edited volume, Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics*. The conversation focused on the Sadrist movement, its place in Iraqi politics, how it balances relations with Iran and the United States, and where it may be headed in the near
future.
Read the full report here: shorturl.at/myzN7
*The edited volume was made possible by a grant from GPD Charitable Trust.

The COVID-19 Crisis and the Implications for Iran Apr 06, 2020

On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Dr. Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor at Naval PostGraduate School and a Fox Fellow at FPRI, about Iran's response to the COVID-19 virus, its regional priorities, and what the future may entail for competition with the United States.

Low Density and in Demand: The Patriot Missile Mar 19, 2020

The Patriot missile system is back in the news, with the Turkish request for two Patriot batteries and the introduction of the system into Iraq to protect U.S. forces from Iranian missile attack. To discuss the details of Patriot deployments, Aaron spoke with Becca Wasser, a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation.

Russian Interests in Syria Mar 12, 2020

In crossover podcast with two scholars from FPRI's Eurasia program, Aaron spoke this week with Bob Hamilton, a Professor of Eurasian Studies at the US Army War College and a Black Sea fellow at FPRI and Nikolas Gvosdev, the Captain Jerome E. Levy Chair in Economic Geography and National Security at the U.S. Naval War College and a FPRI Eurasia Fellow, about the crisis in Idlib. The conversation focused on the Turkish--Russian conflict and Moscow's strategy to defeat the anti-Assad opposition and the potential implications for the United States and Europe.
Read "Idlib: The Most Dangerous Place on Earth" here: https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/03/idlib-the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth/

Tracking Foreign Influence in the 2020 Election Feb 20, 2020

In this episode, Aaron speaks with Clint Watts, a distinguished research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, about Russian and Iranian disinformation efforts surrounding the 2020 election. The episode touched on many of the articles published on the Foreign Influence Election 2020 (FIE 2020) project, which analyzes Russian and Iranian propaganda.

The Russian-Turkish Relationship: In Crisis or Muddling Along? Feb 10, 2020

The Russian -- Turkish relationship is under strain, after events in Syria have challenged a series of ceasefire agreements the two sides signed to try and jointly manage the civil war. Do tensions in Syria signal an end of Turkish -- Russian cooperation, or is the relationship more complicated than a single crisis? To discuss this issue, Aaron spoke this week with Dimitar Bechev, a research fellow at the center for Eurasian and East European Studies and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Please note: The audio quality of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The Libyan Conflict after Moscow and Berlin Jan 24, 2020

The conflict in Libya has prompted more aggressive external intervention, beginning with the Russian decision to send mercenaries to give support to Khalifa Hiftar, the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the Turkish decision to send its own forces, along with Syrian rebels, to augment its preferred actor, the Government of National Accord (GNA). Amidst two summits, one in Moscow and the second in Berlin, Aaron speaks this week with Yousuf Eltagouri, a FPRI contributor who works on stabilization programming in the Middle East and North Africa at DT Global, about events in Libya and the role of external actors.

Iraq after Soleimani Jan 10, 2020

After tensions with Iran escalated, American military operations in Iraq have been curtailed over concerns about possible attacks on U.S. soldiers. To discuss the threat to the U.S. military, Aaron spoke with Ian Rice, a retired US Army Colonel with experience in Iraq about the role of Shia militias in the fight against Islamic State -- and the threat they may now pose for U.S. interest. In a second interview, Aaron also spoke FPRI's Dr. Mike Noonan to drill down into the legal authorities for the targeted killing and the authorities governing American military force in the country.

The Protests in Iraq Dec 18, 2019

After a period of calm following the territorial defeat of the Islamic State, Iraq has faced unprecedented protests, aimed at unseating the current ruling class and expressing anger at corruption and poor economic management. To discuss the protests, Aaron spoke with Maya Gebeily, the Baghdad correspondent for Agence France Presse.

The NATO Summit: The U.S. Perspective Dec 09, 2019

During the run-up to NATO's 70th anniversary summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Turkey would block consensus on the Graduated Response Plans for the Baltic States and Poland, along with the southern flank, unless the alliance recognized the YPG as a terror threat. Ankara eventually dropped this demand, but not before French President Emanuel Macron chastised Ankara for this approach and questioned Turkey's purchase of the Russian-made S400 missile system. To discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit, Aaron spoke this week with Rachel Ellehuus, a Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Be sure to check out the first part of this podcast on the EU perspective with Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and the former EU ambassador to Turkey and NATO.

The NATO Summit: The EU Perspective Dec 09, 2019

Note: The audio quality of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience.
During the run-up to NATO's 70th anniversary summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Turkey would block consensus on the Graduated Response Plans for the Baltic States and Poland, along with the southern flank, unless the alliance recognized the YPG as a terror threat. Ankara eventually dropped this demand, but not before French President Emanuel Macron chastised Ankara for this approach and questioned Turkey's purchase of the Russian-made S400 missile system. To discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit, Aaron spoke this week with Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and the former EU ambassador to Turkey and Syria.
Please check out the second part of this show "The NATO Summit: The U.S. Perspective"

The Trouble with Turkey Oct 16, 2019

The Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria has upended the U.S. counter-ISIS mission and forced a hasty American withdrawal. To discuss the recent events, and what they mean for the U.S.--Turkish relationship, Aaron spoke with Nick Danforth, a senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund.

The Cost of Credibility: The American Military Response to Iran Oct 04, 2019

In response to Iranian provocations, the United States has sent forces back to the Middle East. To discuss the American deployments, and the defense of Saudi Arabia, Aaron speaks this week with Becca Wasser, a senior policy analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation.

Tensions in the Gulf: The Attack on Saudi Arabia Sep 23, 2019

Iran has been accused of firing cruise missiles and drones at oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, a close American partner, and the world's most important energy producer. The attack was the most audacious yet, in what has been a simmering indirect conflict between the Middle East's two largest powers. To discuss this situation, Aaron speaks with Dr. Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and an FPRI Senior Fellow.

An Election Redo in Israel Sep 06, 2019

Israelis head to the polls, again, on September 17th to decide the fate of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Likud Party, and his many challengers. To discuss the state of the race, Aaron speaks with Michael Koplow, the policy director at the Israel Policy Forum.

The Crisis in Idlib Aug 22, 2019

The Assad regime launched a major offensive to recapture Khan Sheykun, a formerly opposition held town, and is now threatening to expand the campaign and continue his march north. To discuss the current offensive, Aaron spoke with Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Research Fellow, Forum for Regional Thinking, where she focuses on Syria.

Patrolling the Gulf: The British Maritime Mission to Deter Iran Aug 08, 2019

After Iran seized a British tanker in the Persian Gulf, the United Kingdom surged naval forces to escort tankers, and are now joining an on-going American effort to escort ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Michael Stephens, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, about the British policy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Related Materials:
- Whether It Likes It or Not, Europe Is Being Pulled Into America's Iran Policy:
http://bit.ly/2YAjgLM
Check out these episodes of the Middle East Brief for more on Iran:
- Iran’s Non-State Clients and Regional Strategy
http://bit.ly/2Wacz1O
- Sabotage in Fujairah: Iran and Escalation Dynamics in The Persian Gulf
http://bit.ly/2YB02AW

The Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty at 25 Jul 30, 2019

Last Thursday (July 25, 2019) was the 25th anniversary of the Washington Declaration, which ended the state of war between Israel and Jordan. The peace treaty that followed remains a key component of Middle Eastern security and underpins relations between Jerusalem and Amman. Dr. Josh Krasna, a FPRI senior fellow and adjunct assistant professor at the NYU Center for Global Affairs, discusses the state of Israeli-Jordanian relations, the future of the peace treaty, and the role of the Trump administration.

The UAE Drawdown in Yemen Jul 11, 2019

Amidst reports of a UAE drawdown from Yemen, Aaron speaks with Elizabeth Dickinson, the senior analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the International Crisis Group, about the conflict and what role the United States could play in helping to de-escalate and end the fighting.

Hunting Zarqawi: Defeating Terrorist Groups and the Future of ISIS Jun 27, 2019

On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Nada Bakos, an FPRI Senior Fellow and former CIA analyst, about her book, The Targeter, and what lessons can be learned from the effort to target Zarqawi and applied to dealing with Islamic State after the territorial defeat of the caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

Russia's Military Coup in Turkey Jun 14, 2019

Turkey's acquisition of a Russian made S-400 air defense system appears inevitable. To discuss the Russian side of this story, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a former Marine and PhD candidate at King's College, London. The conversation explores the state of the Russian defense industry, the structure of the S-400 deal with Turkey, and potential Turkish-Russian aerospace cooperation after the S-400 is delivered.

Iran's Non-State Clients and Regional Strategy May 28, 2019

On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Ariane Tabatabai, an associate political scientist at RAND, to discuss Iran's relationship with various non-state actors in the Middle East, and how the Islamic Republic leverages these relationships to achieve foreign and military policy goals in the region.
Related Materials:
Iran Seeks to Cement Legitimacy of Shia Militias http://bit.ly/2WvmNcq
Triple-Axis: Iran's Relations with Russia and China https://amzn.to/2XcfVgY

Sabotage in Fujairah: Iran and Escalation Dynamics in The Persian Gulf May 16, 2019

Tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated in the Persian Gulf. On this week's Middle East Brief, Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor at the Naval Post Graduate School and FPRI Senior Fellow, joins the program to discuss the recent attack in Fujairah, U.S. policy towards Iran, and the potential for a U.S. - Iranian clash.
Related Materials by Afshon Ostovar:
"Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards" https://amzn.to/2LPtYYR
"Iran, its clients, and the future of the Middle East: the limits of religion"
http://bit.ly/2W5FPG1
"The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War"
http://bit.ly/2WOnNVI

Haftar's March on Tripoli May 02, 2019

What is happening in Libya? Who are the key actors, which countries back which militias, and how has the Trump administration handled the recent surge in violence in Libya's capital city? On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Libya watcher and FPRI contributor Yousuf Eltagouri about the latest in the civil war.
Read More:
Haftar’s Final Play: Operation Flood of Dignity and the Fight for Tripoli : http://bit.ly/2Galcyw
Trump’s Embrace of Haftar Will Reignite Libya’s Proxy War: http://bit.ly/2GEWNT8

The Future of Northeastern Syria Apr 22, 2019

What is the future of northeastern Syria? After two days of talks in Erbil, Michael Stephens, a Research Fellow for Middle East studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London, sits down with Aaron to talk about Syria’s northeast, the future of the Kurdish movement, the role of Turkey, and great power politics.

Local Elections in Turkey: What Happened and What Comes Next Apr 08, 2019

Turkish voters went to the polls on 31 March, casting votes for local elected leaders. The outcome in Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey's two largest cities, have rocked Turkish politics, and galvanized the political opposition to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP). To discuss the election, Aaron speaks with Selim Koru, an analyst at TEPAV, a Turkish think tank in Ankara.
Related Links:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/opinion/turkey-erdogan-election-defeat.html
https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/11/the-resiliency-of-turkey-russia-relations/

Turkey and the S-400: High Stakes Diplomacy Mar 21, 2019

The United States and Turkey remain at odds over Ankara's purchase of a Russian S-400 air and missile defense system. The time to resolve American and Turkish concerns about this issue is running out, and the stakes for diplomatic failure will have repercussions for the bilateral relationship, the Russian role in the region, and could impact NATO. In this week's episode, Aaron discusses the S-400 issue, potential American sanctions, and the potential denial of the F-35 to the Turkish Air Force.
Related links:
1. The Russian Missile That Could End The U.S.-Turkish Alliance: http://bit.ly/2UJxVhK
2. Turkey risks US ire over Russia air defence deal: https://on.ft.com/2Y9MT2y
3. 'Not serious': Turkey dismisses US pressure on Patriot missile deal as deadline looms:
http://bit.ly/2Fr0SK6
4. U.S. may soon pause preparations for delivering F-35s to Turkey: https://reut.rs/2UPIhN8

Iraq After the Territorial Defeat of the Islamic State Mar 11, 2019

With all eyes on Baghuz and the final battle against Islamic State in Syria, the Middle East Brief podcast spoke with Robert Fox Fellow Rasha al Aqeedi to hear the latest from Iraq, which declared victory over ISIS in December 2017. The conversation touched on the nascent ISIS insurgency, the state of reconstruction in Mosul, and the many enduring challenges the Iraqi government now faces.

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