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Japan's banks are transmitting lower interest rates to Asia—Robert McCauley, BIS Oct 02, 2017

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Japanese banks, insurance companies, and pension funds are investing in the US and other financial markets, due to the low or even negative interest rates at home. But their demand is pushing up the price of hedging, so when their dollars get converted back into yen, they lose money along the way. Robert McCauley, senior adviser at the Bank for International Settlements, told the audience at the Asian Development Bank Institute’s Annual Conference 2016 that strong demand by Japanese entities was pushing up the price of yen–dollar swaps, an instrument to hedge foreign investment. In short, it’s becoming more expensive for Japanese investors to get out of yen and into dollar. Read the transcript http://bit.ly/2yieiFV Watch the full presentation http://bit.ly/2xTMvdW Know more about ADBI’s work on low interest rates http://bit.ly/2xMCRI1

The People’s Republic of China is exporting industrial capacity and financial risk Sep 25, 2017

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As the People’s Republic of China — the PRC — develops its “Go Global” suite of policies, it has expanded international capacity cooperation as a way to adjust to the “new normal” of low industrial growth. It’s a novel approach to overcapacity — where an industry is capable of building or producing more than it can sell — which was caused in the PRC by the 2008–2009 spending stimulus that flooded traditional industries. Steel, cement, aluminum, paper, glass, and everything from pork production to robots are in 2017 overwhelmed by cyclical overcapacity. Extending the lifespan for reform in the PRC’s industrial economy by moving production offshore from industrial-policy-protected provinces into the global system is an innovative solution to the country’s industrial slowdown. Read the transcript http://bit.ly/2xqb1Dv Read the blog post https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2017/07/the-prcs-international-capacity-cooperation-exports-both-industrial-capacity-and-financial-risk/ Author Tristan Kenderdine https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/author/tristan-kenderdine/

Obesity and overweight cost about US$166 billion in Asia and the Pacific Sep 25, 2017

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Obesity and overweight are among the main risk factors of noncommunicable diseases that kill millions of people worldwide. How much do these diseases cost health systems and economies? In the United States, every obese person spends about $2,741 a year for additional health care. In Japan, overweight and obesity cost $1,537 a person. US businesses spend about $66 billion because of the absenteeism and lower productivity caused by overweight and obesity. The numbers are similar for European countries. Read the transcript http://bit.ly/2xtM7k6 Read the report https://www.adb.org/publications/imminent-obesity-crisis-asia-and-pacific-first-cost-estimates Authors Matthias Helble, ADBI senior economist and co-chair of the Research Department https://www.adb.org/adbi/about/staff-profiles/matthias-helble Kris Francisco, ADBI research associate at the time the report was published Know more about ADBI’s work on overweight and obesity https://www.adb.org/adbi/search/year/2017?keywords=obesity Read a related ADBI blog post Obesity in Pacific Island countries and territories: How big a problem is it? By Jillian Wate bit.ly/2xqE5b5

Some positive lessons from the Asian financial crisis—Hyun-Song Shin, BIS Sep 25, 2017

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Developing country economies are proving to be a competitive market for investment in local bonds because they offer relatively high yields and long maturities, which limit the risk of fluctuations in the US dollar, although not the risk to the developing economy. The lessons of the Asian financial crisis 20 years ago have shown that the movement of capital can be a gamble. The reality of international finance is complex, said Hyun-Song Shin, economic adviser and head of research at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) at a recent Asian Development Bank and ADBI conference, 20 Years After the Asian Financial Crisis. Read the transcript http://bit.ly/2xzrZyz Watch the full presentation https://youtu.be/ZA6l-aBJ44Y Know more about the conference http://bit.ly/2oYbBk6 Know more about ADBI’s work on the Asian financial crisis http://bit.ly/2xq2S22

ASEAN is banking on “clean” coal in the absence of an alternative Sep 17, 2017

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Coal as an energy source in power plants will continue to increase in ASEAN and East Asia in the coming decades in the absence of a viable energy alternative, stoking fears of an upsurge in carbon dioxide emissions and greenhouse gases. Signals coming from Washington of lessened concern in the US over pollution issues, and President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change, gives developing Asia little option but to continue down the same path. But many of the ASEAN economies are looking at new technologies that use coal in a cleaner way, such as the ultra-supercritical boiler type—USC—which makes more efficient use of coal, leading to minimal waste of the energy source and curbs carbon dioxide emissions. Read the transcript http://bit.ly/2h8mZLv Read the blog post https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2017/06/propelling-asean-towards-clean-coal-technology/ Author Han Phoumin, energy economist at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, Jakarta, Indonesia https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/author/han-phoumin/ Know more about ADBI’s work on coal http://bit.ly/2jslQ23

Northeast India can get private firms to fund roads with the promise of spillover effects—ADBI Dean Sep 17, 2017

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Spillovers are the additional economic activities created by new infrastructure. A new highway will often attract new businesses and create jobs. As a result, governments will receive more revenue from property taxes, corporate taxes, income taxes, and sales taxes. So, to attract private companies with higher returns, governments need to share those future tax revenues with investors. ADBI Dean Naoyuki Yoshino explains further in this episode. Read the transcript http://bit.ly/2wfswGN About Naoyuki Yoshino https://www.adb.org/adbi/about/dean Know more about ADBI’s work on spillover effects http://bit.ly/2vVF81w Watch Let's Build a Highway http://bit.ly/2eZaTQM

Pension crisis looms in emerging Asia Sep 17, 2017

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Many emerging Asian economies will likely face a pension fund crisis by 2030 if they fail to set aside sufficient money in a gradually aging region to care for their elderly. The fiscal burden of public pensions in most Asian emerging economies is relatively small, reflecting comparatively young populations and limited coverage of the retired-age population, which has traditionally been left to families to handle. The Asian Development Bank Institute—ADBI—looked more closely at the extent of the looming pension crisis to identify the current status of public pension spending in Asia; develop models to explain public pension spending in Asia in terms of basic economic and demographic variables; and use the models to forecast the likely developments in spending on public pensions in 23 emerging economies through 2030 as a result of demographic and income trends. Read the transcript http://bit.ly/2h5pAGc Read Costs and Potential Funding of Expanded Public Pension Coverage in Asia https://www.adb.org/publications/costs-and-potential-funding-expanded-public-pension-coverage-asia Authors Peter Morgan, ADBI co-chair of research https://www.adb.org/adbi/about/staff-profiles/peter-morgan Long Q. Trinh, ADBI research associate https://www.adb.org/adbi/about/staff-profiles/long-trinh Know more about ADBI’s work on pensions http://bit.ly/2f84CWy

Cambodian banks are looking at a deposit-insurance system Sep 12, 2017

Show notes

It’s been almost 2 decades since the central bank moved to clean up the country’s private banks. Back then, Cambodia didn’t have a single ATM. Today, branches with ATMs are common in provincial areas, deposits have increased, and credit has grown quickly. Minimum capital requirements have been raised. And in a country where cash was once king, electronic payments are now widespread. With an extremely young population, Cambodia has seen the numbers of bank depositors grow enormously in recent years. Most are too young to remember the three bank closures of 1999. And, unlike their parents or grandparents, many young Cambodians are wary of keeping their savings in gold or in cash at home under the bed. The move toward deposit insurance in Cambodia is being spearheaded by Naoyuki Yoshino, dean of the Tokyo-based Asian Development Bank Institute, which provides input to policy makers in member countries. Read the transcript http://bit.ly/2ePuSBn Read Fair Premium Rate of the Deposit Insurance System based on Banks’ Creditworthiness https://www.adb.org/publications/fair-premium-rate-deposit-insurance-system-based-banks-creditworthiness By Naoyuki Yoshino https://www.adb.org/adbi/about/dean Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/author/farhad-taghizadeh-hesary/ Farhad Nili

US exit from TPP paves way for PRC influence—G. Nataraj, Institute of Public Administration, India Sep 12, 2017

Show notes

“The US exit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has paved the way for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to dominate and have a greater influence in the Asia-Pacific region,” said Geethanjali Nataraj of India’s Institute of Public Administration at a recent Asian Development Bank Institute seminar. Japan has picked up the baton and is trying save the TPP, without the US, and is open to inviting the PRC and the Republic of Korea, initially excluded from the negotiations, to join late-stage talks. Some members are shifting back to bilateral deals with the US. The Asian economic region is scrambling to build alternative multilateral and bilateral trade agreements, but none will have the consensus of or be as comprehensive and expansive as the TPP. One that is growing in popularity is the PRC’s “One Road One Belt” initiative, a 21st century land and sea Silk Road linking Asia through Central Asia to the European Union, and expected to involve 60 economies accounting for 40% of global GDP. It is a centerpiece of the PRC’s foreign policy and timed to be in place by 2049, the country’s centenary. Economists say it will relieve the pressure of overcapacity on the PRC’s economy by allowing it to spread its production base and bypass protectionism by importing and exporting finished products. Read the transcript http://bit.ly/2vZMdSY Watch the complete presentation https://youtu.be/a-GMkiRYctU Know more about ADBI’s work on the TPP http://bit.ly/2xb3lEH

Can trade create jobs globally? Sep 12, 2017

Show notes

Win-Win—How International Trade Can Help Meet the Sustainable Development Goals was recently published by ADBI and edited by ADBI senior economist Matthias Helble and Ben Shepherd, principal at Developing Trade Consultants. The book looks at what can be realistically achieved after the 2015 United Nations Sustainable Development Summit, where some 150 world leaders adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, including the Sustainable Development Goals, or SDGs. The 17 SDGs, also known as the Global Goals, aim to end poverty, hunger, and inequality; act on climate change and the environment; improve access to health and education; build strong institutions and partnerships; and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity. Twenty-five economists and analysts examined the UN goals in the real context of developing economies, picking apart such areas as poverty, hunger, the role of women, job creation, inequality, the environment and climate change, fisheries, food safety, education, health care, urbanization, and infrastructure. Read the transcript http://bit.ly/2xfEZcL Read the book https://www.adb.org/publications/win-win-how-international-trade-can-help-meet-sdgs Edited by Matthias Helble, ADBI senior economist and co-chair of the Research Department https://www.adb.org/adbi/about/staff-profiles/matthias-helble Ben Shepherd, principal at Developing Trade Consultants Know more about ADBI’s work on the Sustainable Development Goals http://bit.ly/2xb7XuB

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