35 West

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Best of 35 West: On the Campaign Trail in Mexico May 30, 2024

Show notes

This episode of 35 West originally aired on December 20, 2023. Now, just days away from the election, many of topics discussed have only grown in relevance over the course of the official campaign season.

Mexico's general election on June 2 of 2024 promises to be a seminal moment for Mexican politics and society on a number of fronts, in particular, the race has made headlines as a contest between two women, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum on one hand, and Senator Xóchitl Gálvez on the other, promising to herald Mexico’s first female president. But the race is also a test of the staying power of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena Party, and whether its breakout success in 2018 can be translated into sustained influence over Mexican politics.

In this special episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Alma Caballero, Northern Latin America Managing Director at McLarty Associates. Together, they discuss the policy positions of the frontrunners, the challenges that will face either a Gálvez or a Sheinbaum government, and the influence President López Obrador is likely to wield over Mexico's political environment even after departing office. They also delve into questions of security, and the threat organized crime may pose to the electoral process next year.

Unpacking USMCA May 16, 2024

Show notes

In 2023, U.S. trade with Mexico grew to nearly $800 billion, leading Mexico to surpass both Canada and China as the United States’ number one trading partner.While U.S.-Mexico trade has long been a pillar of North American economic competitiveness, Washington’s efforts to move trade away from China in favor of nearshoring and friendshoring in the Western Hemisphere, coupled with the advantages of a modernized trade agreement in the form of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has underpinned this increase in bilateral trade and investment. At the same time, Chinese investment in Mexico has skyrocketed, with estimates finding that in 2022 Chinese foreign direct investment in Mexico was more than double that of 2018.

In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Kenneth Smith Ramos, Chief Trade Negotiator for Mexico from 2017 to 2018 and one of the architects of USMCA. Together, they discuss the evolution of USMCA since its entry into force in 2020, with a focus on the recent surge of Chinese invesment in Mexico, understanding the nature of this investment, as well as the potential challenges it may present. They also discuss the upcoming 2026 Joint Review of the agreement, and what can be done by all three countries to lay the groundwork for a more constructive session.

El rumbo democrático: What's at Stake in Panama's Elections? May 02, 2024

Show notes

On Sunday, May 5, Panamanians will cast their votes to determine the next president, as well as all members of the National Assembly. With a crowded field of candidates vying for the presidency, and only a single round to determine the victor, it promises to be a divided field. The elections are also taking place within a deeply polarized context, as Panama has been rocked by mass protests against the Cobre Panama Mining project, the country grapples with both a worsening water crisis, and the endemic challenge of corruption continues to loom large.

In this special episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Annette Planells, a civil society leader and anticorruption activist, and Executive President of the newspaper La Prensa. Together, they discuss the election's implications for Panama's ongoing fight against corruption, especially in light of the disqualification of ex-president and former frontrunner Ricardo Martinelli following his conviction on bribery charges. They also reflect on how the various candidates will navigate some of the most salient questions in Panamanian politics today, including water insecurity, infrastructure, as well as Panama's relations with both China and the United States.

From Peril to Partnership with Paul Angelo Apr 25, 2024

Show notes

Looking across the hemisphere today, crime and insecurity appears on the march, with transnational criminal groups ascendant from Mexico to the Caribbean and southern cone. In light of this, it is important to reflect upon the history of U.S.-LAC security cooperation, where we have seen two major, multi-year security initiatives launched and concluded in the past 25 years, Plan Colombia, and the Mérida Initiative.

In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Dr. Paul Angelo, Director of the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at National Defense University. Together, they discuss his new book From Peril to Partnership: US Security Assistance and the Bid to Stabilize Colombia and Mexico. They trace the divergent origins and outcomes of both Plan Colombia and the Mérida Initiative, as well as the current security challenges facing the hemisphere.

What's in a Chip? The Rising Conflict Over Mineral Inputs for Semiconductors Apr 11, 2024

Show notes

Semiconductors form the building blocks of modern digital life. Chips govern everything from missile guidance systems to the headlights in your car, and the fight for the cutting edge of this technology appears to be entering a new phase. The United States, in partnership with allies like Japan and the Netherlands, has sought to cut off China’s access to advanced chip designs and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. In response, China has announced a raft of export controls on minerals needed to produce modern chips, leveraging its dominance in the supply chain for mining and refining key minerals.

In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Dr. Chris Miller, Associate Professor with the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and author of Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology. Together, they analyze the challenges and choke points in the semiconductor supply chain, including the need to identify and certify alternative suppliers, as well as the role that countries in the Western Hemisphere can play in breaking China's monopoly over the raw material inputs for semiconductors. They also unpack the challenges to getting more mining, refining, and processing online, and how the United States can better partner with allies to shore up this sector of the supply chain.

Haiti’s Evolving Political and Security Crisis Mar 21, 2024

Show notes

Haiti’s years-long political and security crisis entered a new phase last week when Prime Minister Ariel Henry, Haiti’s acting head of state since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, announced his resignation. Now, Haiti faces a period of profound uncertainty, with a serious power vacuum in government, ascendant criminal groups within striking distance of the halls of state power, and increasingly narrow prospects for a long-awaited international aid mission.

In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Georges Fauriol, Senior Associate with the CSIS Americas Program and fellow with the Caribbean Policy Consortium. Together, they unpack the implications of Henry's resignation, the recent surge in gang activity, as well as what the future may hold as Haiti continues to struggle to come to terms with citizen security. They also discuss the reactions of Haitian civil society, and the lack of substantial action on the part of the international community.

LAC Fighters in Ukraine Mar 07, 2024

Show notes

Citizens from LAC countries have also played a more direct role in the conflict as foreign fighters for both sides. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv publish exact data on the number or nationality of LAC fighters who join their ranks, but estimates range from several hundred to more than a thousand fighters total spread across each front.

On February 23, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, sat down with Elizabeth M.F. Grasmeder, Adjunct Professor of National Security Policy with Duke University, and Andrei Serbin Pont, Executive Director of CRIES-LAC, for a conversation on X (formerly Twitter) about the role of foreign fights from LAC on both sides in Ukraine. Together, they unpacked the motivations of fighters for joining both Ukraine and Russia, why Moscow and Kyiv have turned to recruiting foreign fighters, and the broader implications of war in Ukraine for Latin American countries.

El rumbo democrático: An Auto-Coronation in El Salvador Feb 22, 2024

Show notes

On Sunday, February 4, Salvadorans headed to the polls to cast their votes in what virtually all analysts predicted would yield a landslide victory for incumbent President Nayib Bukele. However, official confirmation of Bukele’s victory was interrupted as the president declared the opposition was “pulverized” before the final transmission of the votes had been completed and announced by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. While this appears to have been resolved in Bukele’s favor, with the tribunal officially announcing Bukele’s victory with some 83 percent of the vote, this incident is but the latest in a steady march of democratic backsliding in El Salvador, one where Bukele has shown contempt for any effort to check his executive authority.

In this special episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Noah Bullock, Executive Director of Cristosal, a leading human rights organization which has been closely tracking the infringements upon civil and political rights under the Bukele administration. Together, they unpack the consequences of El Salvador's presidential elections, what to expect under a second Bukele term, and how the United States should respond.

From the Ashes? Noboa's Plan Phoenix and Ecuador's Evolving Security Situation Feb 08, 2024

Show notes

Last month, Ecuador was rocked by a series of attacks carried out by members of criminal gangs. Over the course of two days of grueling violence, inmates rioted and took over prisons, gangs detonated car bombs across the country, and armed gunmen even stormed a live television broadcast in the violence-wracked city of Guayaquil. Then a few days later, the prosecutor investigating the attack on the TV station was gunned-down in cold blood. In response, newly-elected President Daniel Noboa has mobilized the armed forces and declared a state of “internal armed conflict” along with designating some 22 criminal groups as terrorist organizations.

In this episode, Sebastián Hurtado, President and Founder of the Quito-based political risk consultancy Prófitas returns to 35 West to sit down with Christopher Hernandez-Roy. Together, they analyze the causes and consequences of spiking violence in Ecuador, the pressures Noboa faces to deliver quick results, and the challenges facing the Ecuadorian government's attempts to regain control over prisons and tamp down on ascendant criminal groups.

Back from the Brink? Arevalo's Inauguration and Democracy in the Americas Jan 25, 2024

Show notes

In the months since Bernardo Arevalo's upset victory in Guatemala's presidential elections, a small elite often referred as “the pact of the corrupt,” has tried to derail the president-elect from taking office. In response, the United States imposed visa restrictions on nearly 300 Guatemalan congressmen and business leaders, while the Organization of American States, other international organizations and civil society raised mounting cries to respect the outcome of the election. For the time being, their tireless efforts appear to have paid off, with President Arrevalo taking office on January 14th, but only after a last-ditch effort by members in congress to block him.

In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Ambassador Frank O. Mora, U.S. Ambassador to the Organization of American States. Together, they shine a spotlight on the efforts of Guatemalan civil society, the OAS and the U.S. to defend democracy from efforts to overturn electoral results. They also look ahead to upcoming elections in the hemisphere, and analyze the role of the United States and OAS in safeguarding election integrity, and resisting democratic backsliding.

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