Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and Biden) Campaigns Oct 31, 2024

What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race.
And of course, we spend some time looking at the model.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Odd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting Oct 30, 2024

Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in.

Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, Odd Lots hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.

Read More at Bloomberg.com:
https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS
https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers Oct 24, 2024

This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet Oct 17, 2024

Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment.

Further Reading:

The Big Announcement

Further Reading:

Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida? from the Silver Bulletin

The Russian Bot Army That Conquered Online Poker from Bloomberg

A Further Investigation into the Existence of the BotFarm Corporation from Poker Pro

Poker-Bots: The Call Is Now Coming From Inside The House from Legal Poker Sites

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How to Win Bets and Influence Elections Oct 03, 2024

Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people’s money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner’s dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election update, and he and Maria discuss what people can do to influence the election in the final weeks. (Hint: It’s not donating to a presidential campaign.) Plus, Nate and Maria say farewell to two degenerate gamblers who passed away this week.

Further Reading:

Charity Navigator

Further Reading:

Ready Your Bets: Election gambling is going mainstream in the US from Politico

Election Betting Halted After Appeals Court Agrees to Hit the Breaks from WSJ

Betting On Elections Can Tell Us A Lot. Why Is It Mostly Illegal? from the New Yorker

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Does Nate Trust His Model? Debates, Prediction Markets and Poker Sep 12, 2024

Nate and Maria discuss the Harris-Trump debate. Then, Nate gives an update on his election model, and Maria shares the outcome of her irrational move at a poker tournament in Barcelona.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Calculating Risks in a Creative Life, with Brian Koppelman Sep 05, 2024

Maria sits down with the great Brian Koppelman (Rounders, Billions, The Bear) to learn about how he navigates risk in Hollywood and beyond. They discuss his methods of determining when a risk is worth taking, how to offset risk with hard work, and the time he bet big on Billions.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Amazing Frauds, Faking Your Own Death, and the Latest on the Election Aug 29, 2024

Nate and Maria briefly discuss the latest election news. Then Tim Harford, author and host of Cautionary Tales, joins to discuss two of history’s most compelling con artists: Sam Israel III and John Law. Risk-related lessons are learned.

Further Reading:

A Con Man Who Lives Between Truth and Fiction from the New York Times

The Murderer, The Boy King, and The Invention of Modern Finance from NPR (featuring our EP Jacob Goldstein!)

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kamala Edition: Taxes, Tariffs, and the DNC Aug 21, 2024

This week Nate and Maria discuss the state of Kamala Harris’ presidential bid, including taking a look at her first policy proposals on price gouging and taxes on tips.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lessons from The River (Maria Interviews Nate About His Book) Aug 15, 2024

Nate’s book “On the Edge” is out this week! (Get your copy here.) Maria interviews Nate about the origins of the book, what extreme risk takers get right and wrong, and the year Nate bet a million dollars on sports.

Check out the Risky Business YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@RiskyBusinessShow

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Taking Risks in Business, Poker, and Life (with Bill Perkins) Aug 08, 2024

Maria sits down with Bill Perkins, the legendary energy trader, to talk about his approach to risk in business, poker, and life.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kamala Mode, Misinformation, and Winning the WSOP Aug 01, 2024

Nate’s election model is back on, and it’s in Kamala Mode. Nate and Maria discuss what the model shows us about Kamala Harris’ chances, and the strange election misinformation that has been going around. Then, they are joined by World Series of Poker Main Event winner Jonathan Tamayo to discuss his win – and the controversy that surrounds it.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Betting on Kamala Harris (with special guest Matt Glassman) Jul 23, 2024

Biden’s out of the race! Matt Glassman joins Nate to talk about what the consolidation behind Kamala Harris reveals about party politics and who she might pick for a running mate.

Further Reading:

Why Biden Finally Quit from Politico

Can Harris Beat Trump? from New York Magazine

What a Kamala Harris Presidency Might Look Like from Semafor

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Conspiracy Theories, J.D. Vance, and Jury Duty Jul 18, 2024

Nate and Maria discuss the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the psychology of conspiracy theorists. They talk about what Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance means for the election. And they parse the latest in the Democrats’ intra-party fight over Biden.

Also on the show: Nate’s day at jury duty is a case study in bad bluffs.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How to Convince Biden to Quit Jul 10, 2024

Nate and Maria really, really, really want Joe Biden to drop out of the race.

Maria gives a psychological consult on the best way to convince Biden to quit. Nate estimates Biden’s chances of defeating Donal Trump if he stays in – and Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the election if she replaces Biden.

Also: An update from the Main Event of the World Series of Poker.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How to Gamble Like a Chess Player, with Jennifer Shahade Jul 04, 2024

Maria talks with Women’s Chess Grandmaster Jennifer Shahade about what chess and poker teach you about life; how statistics can help you think about having kids; and the time Maria lost a chess match in four moves.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The President Has No Clothes: Biden Should Drop Out Jun 28, 2024

In this bonus episode, Nate and Maria discuss last night’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump. They argue that Biden should drop out of the race, and discuss what might happen if he does.

Further Reading:

“Joe Biden Should Drop Out” from Silver Bulletin

“CNN Presidential Debate: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump” from CNN

“Important Post Debate Analysis" from X user @drewjanda

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate’s Election Model, the Trouble with Insurance, and How People Get Risk Wrong Jun 27, 2024

This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria unveil Nate’s 2024 election model. (The forecast is bad news for Maria.) Also, they explain what insurance industry troubles tell us about the market for risk. And they discuss some key mistakes people make when thinking about risk.

Further Reading:

“Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” by Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

“Climate Change Has Hit Home Insurance. Is Health Insurance Next?” from the Wall Street Journal

“The Home Insurance Crunch: See What’s Happening in Your State” from the New York Times

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Snap Elections, Global Warming, and Maria’s Favorite Hot Sauce Jun 20, 2024

This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss the reasoning behind Macron’s decision to hold early elections in France, how heat waves could help communicate the reality of climate change, and what we can learn from the impending sriracha shortage. The theme that ties it all together: How to think about long-term risk.

Further Reading:

“The stakes are high in Macron’s gamble” from the Financial Times

“What A Sriracha Shortage Teaches Us About Supply Chains” from Forbes

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lifetime Terms, Lifetime Bans, and the Return of Roaring Kitty Jun 13, 2024

This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss whether Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor should retire, the perils of sports betting among professional athletes, and what the return of Roaring Kitty means for traditional market analysis.

Further Reading:

“Sonia Sotomayor Should Retire Now” from The Atlantic

“Should Sonia Sotomayor Retire?” from Slate

“MLB bans Padres’ Tucupita Marcano permanently for betting on baseball” from the NYT

“Lifetime bans and careers in tatters – recent sports betting scandals show how fringe players are vulnerable” from CBC

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mistakes and Unknowns: Election Polls, Poker Tournaments, and the NBA Finals Jun 06, 2024

This week on Risky Business, Nate gives his analysis of what Trump’s guilty verdict may mean for the election, Maria shares the biggest mistakes she’s seen at the World Series of Poker so far, and Nate reveals an interesting ripple in the sports betting ecosystem ahead of the NBA Finals.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

WSOP Kickoff, Crypto ETFs, and Airfare Refunds May 30, 2024

Nate and Maria are in Vegas for the first week of the World Series of Poker. On today’s show, they share their top tips for acing the World Series, explain the politics behind last week’s approval of a new kind of crypto ETF, and unpack new rules for airline delays.

Further Reading:

“SEC Unexpectedly Expedites ETH ETF w/ Eric Balchunas” from Galaxy Brains

“Biden-Harris Administration Announces Final Rule Requiring Automatic Refunds of Airline Tickets and Ancillary Service Fees” from USDOT

To Buy Into Maria’s WSOP Action:

Visit “StakeKings”

Or “PokerStake”

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A Backup for Biden May 23, 2024

Nate and Maria start with something light: p(doom) and the possibility that AI will bring about the end of life as we know it. Then, Nate breaks down the news about the presidential debates and makes a shocking recommendation to the Democratic Party. And – most importantly – our hosts preview the upcoming World Series of Poker in Vegas.

Further Reading:

“OpenAI: Exodus” by Zvi Mowshowitz

“Democrats Have a Better Option Than Biden” by Ezra Klein

“21 Tips for Acing the World Series of Poker” by Nate Silver

To Buy Into Maria’s WSOP Action:

Visit “StakeKings”

Or “PokerStake”

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lessons from the Final Table May 16, 2024

Welcome to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions.

Today, Maria has lessons from a poker tournament she recently played in Monte Carlo, where she made it to the final table. Then, Nate discusses what RFK Jr.’s impressive polling numbers could mean for Biden and Trump. And Nate and Maria discuss Caitlin Clark and what her story tells us – or doesn’t – about the gender pay gap.

Further Reading:

The Biggest Bluff by Maria Konnikova

On The Edge by Nate Silver (forthcoming)

"RFK Jr. Says Doctors Found a Dead Worm in His Brain" (NYT)

"What the conversation about Caitlin Clark’s pay gets wrong" (CNN)

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters.

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Coming Soon... Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova May 02, 2024

Launching on May 16, Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.

Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.

Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.

Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our TOPPODCAST Picks

Follow Us

Stay Connected

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Related Podcasts

Links

Stay Connected